WEBVTT - Ryan Girdusky - Here's what the data says about 2024 0:00:11.697 --> 0:00:14.977 You're listening to The Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure 0:00:14.977 --> 0:00:17.977 you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or 0:00:18.017 --> 0:00:19.737 wherever you get your podcasts. 0:00:20.097 --> 0:00:24.217 Hey, everybody, welcome to the Buck Sexton Show. On this episode, 0:00:24.217 --> 0:00:28.177 our friend Ryan Gradowsky returns. He is the founder of 0:00:28.217 --> 0:00:31.537 the seventeen to seventy six Project Pack, and he'll tell 0:00:31.577 --> 0:00:33.017 us a bit about what they've been up to. Also, 0:00:33.057 --> 0:00:39.017 his Substack, which is the National Populist newsletter, is phenomenal 0:00:39.137 --> 0:00:42.297 and you should all check it out subscribe to it 0:00:42.337 --> 0:00:46.497 on substack. We're going to talk about Trump, DeSantis, Biden 0:00:46.657 --> 0:00:52.377 versus whoever early states, the twenty twenty four process, how 0:00:52.377 --> 0:00:54.417 it's all shaken out, how it's looking in some school 0:00:54.417 --> 0:00:58.217 board stuff. So deep dive in into politics here, Ryan, 0:00:58.297 --> 0:01:01.417 let's start with this one. Well, we'll do this in 0:01:01.457 --> 0:01:06.497 what will be effectively chronological order. How's the Trump DeSantis 0:01:06.697 --> 0:01:08.337 reality playing out right now? 0:01:10.457 --> 0:01:13.697 Right now? Is Trump is obviously way ahead. I mean, 0:01:13.737 --> 0:01:16.457 he's probably ahead in every single state he's game. Trump 0:01:16.537 --> 0:01:20.697 had massive losses after the primary after the general election 0:01:20.777 --> 0:01:24.377 of twenty twenty two because most of his candidates lost. 0:01:24.417 --> 0:01:26.217 He backed a lot of losers, and I think with 0:01:26.297 --> 0:01:29.857 the exception of like one one candidate in every state 0:01:30.057 --> 0:01:32.817 he lost in twenty sixteen or twenty twenty, rather all 0:01:32.857 --> 0:01:35.177 of his candidates lost. I think just the lieutenant governor 0:01:35.177 --> 0:01:38.977 of George was the only one who won. So people 0:01:38.977 --> 0:01:41.977 were frowning on him because he couldn't win elections. And 0:01:42.017 --> 0:01:44.417 then you know, time kind of heals all wounds and 0:01:44.457 --> 0:01:49.017 people forgot. And he also had that arrest, which was 0:01:49.217 --> 0:01:52.657 that dyne sentence, and there was a rally on the 0:01:52.737 --> 0:01:56.657 King effect, and I think that that is definitely benefiting him, 0:01:56.937 --> 0:01:59.857 and he's really the only one actually running. Trump has 0:01:59.897 --> 0:02:03.617 an effective team actually working to Sanders done up. He 0:02:03.737 --> 0:02:06.297 just doesn't have a real campaign operation. 0:02:06.937 --> 0:02:08.897 What do you say? What do you say to people 0:02:09.337 --> 0:02:12.537 Ryan who at this point say, well, hold on a second. 0:02:12.537 --> 0:02:15.817 DeSantis isn't really a candidate yet, so it's not fair 0:02:15.937 --> 0:02:19.097 to assess how he's doing as a candidate. 0:02:20.577 --> 0:02:25.377 That is true. You can have an operation when you 0:02:25.457 --> 0:02:29.017 are not a candidate too, as a precursor. So you 0:02:29.017 --> 0:02:31.697 could have a surrogacy program, right would he'd have people, 0:02:31.777 --> 0:02:37.817 high profile people on television every day defending him, promoting him, 0:02:37.857 --> 0:02:41.937 attacking Trump as a precursor that doesn't exist. You could 0:02:41.977 --> 0:02:45.817 have early endorsements as far as the ground game lined 0:02:45.897 --> 0:02:49.537 up in an important first few states. That isn't happening. 0:02:49.577 --> 0:02:51.857 In fact, Leezelden, who was supposed to allegedly be one 0:02:51.897 --> 0:02:54.337 of the key people in his New York campaign. New 0:02:54.417 --> 0:02:56.337 York is I think the fifth or sixth state to 0:02:56.417 --> 0:02:58.817 vote in this primary cycle at the time because they switch. 0:03:01.097 --> 0:03:05.457 He just endorsed Trump. He doesn't have an effective operation 0:03:05.617 --> 0:03:09.097 in the slightest. He's doing these book tour events and 0:03:09.137 --> 0:03:13.137 he's going to Japan, and it is extraordinarily tone deaf 0:03:13.177 --> 0:03:17.457 for the moment. And he really hasn't had a big 0:03:17.577 --> 0:03:20.457 news story since the six week abortion Man, which is 0:03:20.537 --> 0:03:23.657 hugely unpopular. So the last big news story is the 0:03:23.657 --> 0:03:28.337 abortion man, wildly unpopular. Its has unpopular to defund the police, 0:03:28.617 --> 0:03:31.937 and he has no ceregacy program to defend him on 0:03:32.017 --> 0:03:36.457 television and radio every day, and he has no operation 0:03:36.617 --> 0:03:40.817 to start building out early early state organization. He literally 0:03:40.817 --> 0:03:42.817 just lost with of his key people to Trump. So 0:03:44.137 --> 0:03:46.617 that is not that is clearly not evan that he's 0:03:46.617 --> 0:03:50.577 actually running a real operation in any sense of the word. 0:03:50.977 --> 0:03:54.297 And Trump is. And Trump has Susie Wiles, who as 0:03:54.337 --> 0:03:57.817 this political campaign person who is one of the best 0:03:57.857 --> 0:04:01.497 in the business. Susie is brilliant, and she it's not 0:04:01.697 --> 0:04:05.457 private public information. She hates rond de Santas, and she 0:04:05.697 --> 0:04:06.417 is you know. 0:04:06.577 --> 0:04:09.297 Why does she hate Why does she hate Ronda Santis? 0:04:09.297 --> 0:04:10.817 Because you're an insight her with this stuff. A lot 0:04:10.857 --> 0:04:12.737 of people won't know that. Why is there beef there? 0:04:14.257 --> 0:04:20.057 Ron got her fired for allegedly leaking materials and she 0:04:20.057 --> 0:04:24.097 she says she never really did. So that's the entire fight. 0:04:24.217 --> 0:04:26.817 The fight is over the fact that she got fired 0:04:26.857 --> 0:04:30.177 in a campaign, I think the twenty twenty presidential campaign. 0:04:30.257 --> 0:04:33.857 She got fired from out of deference to Dissantas, who 0:04:33.857 --> 0:04:36.577 said she was a leaker because he does hate leaking 0:04:36.577 --> 0:04:38.777 Disanta's and he's very good at not having people leak 0:04:38.817 --> 0:04:41.697 in his operation. And she says that she never did it. 0:04:41.777 --> 0:04:43.897 And that's literally in the feud. 0:04:44.137 --> 0:04:46.737 Wow, So there's like a blood feud in the midst 0:04:46.897 --> 0:04:48.897 of all this politics as well. 0:04:50.217 --> 0:04:52.537 Yeah, and that's why you noticed that Trump is going 0:04:52.577 --> 0:04:55.017 harder on Desanta's. It's not just because he's a primary opponent. 0:04:55.057 --> 0:04:57.777 It's because, like the hate from that campaign is real. 0:04:58.297 --> 0:05:00.617 I would estimate there are people within that camp who 0:05:00.617 --> 0:05:02.657 want to be desantisma than they want to be fired. 0:05:03.897 --> 0:05:08.257 Wow, what could DeSantis do at this point in your mind? 0:05:08.777 --> 0:05:10.657 What has to happen for him to try to make 0:05:10.697 --> 0:05:12.177 up some of the ground that has been lost to 0:05:12.217 --> 0:05:13.457 Trump in the last few months. 0:05:14.457 --> 0:05:18.617 One he needs a national message, Uh, Florida Freedom lives 0:05:18.617 --> 0:05:20.857 in Florida is not a national message. It's not You're 0:05:20.857 --> 0:05:23.257 not going to plant palm trees in Michigan. Like, there's 0:05:23.297 --> 0:05:26.217 no actual I read his book too, there's no national 0:05:26.617 --> 0:05:29.937 message of what he wants to do as a leader. Like, 0:05:30.137 --> 0:05:33.497 you can't make every state Florida. It's just not actually possible. 0:05:33.897 --> 0:05:36.457 So what are you going to do for the industrial Midwest? 0:05:36.497 --> 0:05:38.977 What are you going to do for the Southwest? What 0:05:39.017 --> 0:05:42.217 are you going to do in in places like New 0:05:42.217 --> 0:05:45.377 Hampshire and main second congressional which are still swing areas. 0:05:45.697 --> 0:05:48.777 What are you going to do in in in places 0:05:48.777 --> 0:05:51.737 that are key swing congressional districts that need Republican support, 0:05:51.817 --> 0:05:54.897 like in you know, in Oregon's fourth and fifth district, 0:05:55.017 --> 0:05:58.457 or in you know, the eastern part of what you know, 0:05:58.617 --> 0:06:00.817 Washington State where you need Republicans to turn out for 0:06:00.857 --> 0:06:03.177 their House candidates. What are you do for any of 0:06:03.217 --> 0:06:06.377 those people. There's no national message. Florida lives free is 0:06:06.497 --> 0:06:09.137 not a freedom was in Florida is not a national message. 0:06:09.257 --> 0:06:11.577 What goes to die is not a national message. I 0:06:11.617 --> 0:06:14.177 want something that sits there and says, if I close 0:06:14.257 --> 0:06:18.297 my eyes, I can envision like a country that Ron 0:06:18.337 --> 0:06:21.297 de Santa's leads. That's not there. He needs a surrogacy 0:06:21.377 --> 0:06:24.537 program to attack Trump every single solitary day on media. 0:06:25.177 --> 0:06:26.617 He doesn't have to do it, but he has to 0:06:26.617 --> 0:06:28.577 have people who do it. Nikki Haley is not doing it. 0:06:28.617 --> 0:06:31.577 She only attacking him, and Alsill Hutchinson Nowe's gonna care 0:06:31.577 --> 0:06:34.857 about and vivec doesn't do it either. And you need 0:06:35.777 --> 0:06:38.017 and you need endorsements to start coming, and you need 0:06:38.057 --> 0:06:40.897 a national rally about you and say why you can't. 0:06:41.177 --> 0:06:43.777 It's so bad right now for the Desanta's team that 0:06:43.857 --> 0:06:47.897 in the morn Console poll, Republicans view Trump is more 0:06:47.897 --> 0:06:52.377 electable than Desanta's, which is ampatomically and like any sense 0:06:52.417 --> 0:06:55.017 of the word. But he's lost even messaging on that. 0:06:55.337 --> 0:06:58.057 Trump is the greatest person when it comes to branding 0:06:58.097 --> 0:07:00.377 in the history of the world, him and Kim Kardashian. 0:07:00.457 --> 0:07:04.257 It's really true and he has branded himself on certain 0:07:04.297 --> 0:07:06.617 things as being an outsider when he's an insider, as 0:07:06.657 --> 0:07:09.897 being a winner when he's a loser, like with elections, 0:07:10.057 --> 0:07:12.537 being somebody who's accomplished things that he never accomplished, never 0:07:12.537 --> 0:07:15.537 built a wall, like he says these things to these supporters, 0:07:15.577 --> 0:07:18.177 and he's branded himself to these things for Republican voters, 0:07:18.177 --> 0:07:20.697 and they believe it. They don't believe because it's true. 0:07:20.697 --> 0:07:22.537 They believe because they trust the brand the same way 0:07:22.577 --> 0:07:24.337 that people believe that smoking was good for you for 0:07:24.337 --> 0:07:28.137 fifty sixty years, so the brand was solid. De Santas 0:07:28.137 --> 0:07:31.337 doesn't have a real brand. He's only been like, you know, 0:07:32.017 --> 0:07:35.497 real national government for four years and the people have 0:07:35.497 --> 0:07:39.617 paid attention to it any way, and he, I mean, 0:07:39.657 --> 0:07:41.977 the brand of freedom is not enough of a brand. 0:07:42.137 --> 0:07:46.017 Tell me this, is there any poling, Is there any data, 0:07:46.057 --> 0:07:49.697 any numbers that can give us some sense as to 0:07:49.777 --> 0:07:52.777 whether DeSantis because you said, Trump has branded himself as 0:07:52.817 --> 0:07:56.537 a winner. And it's interesting because even bringing up the 0:07:56.577 --> 0:08:00.737 twenty twenty election, among certain people in the Republican base, 0:08:02.337 --> 0:08:04.137 it's really difficult to have a conference. It's like, well, 0:08:04.137 --> 0:08:07.057 what can be done to have a different outcome? Than 0:08:07.097 --> 0:08:09.737 twenty twenty, and I'll get people who will say, well, 0:08:09.737 --> 0:08:11.697 we don't need a different outcome in twenty twenty because 0:08:11.697 --> 0:08:13.697 you want to which. 0:08:13.497 --> 0:08:17.857 I say, try himself. Trump himself privately has said he's lost, 0:08:18.417 --> 0:08:20.457 like but he's branded himself as a winner. 0:08:20.657 --> 0:08:22.457 But you see what I mean, Like, how do you 0:08:22.497 --> 0:08:26.617 even how are you going to address campaign strategy with 0:08:26.817 --> 0:08:30.737 that portion of the GOP base that's going to say, no, 0:08:30.897 --> 0:08:33.417 the strategy was great last time. We just need the 0:08:33.457 --> 0:08:36.177 same strategy this time. Let me put this a better way. 0:08:36.777 --> 0:08:41.297 If DeSantis and his surrogates, once De Santis gets in 0:08:41.337 --> 0:08:44.657 this race, which we're all expecting to happen, if they attract, 0:08:45.017 --> 0:08:49.897 if they attack Trump for being a loser in twenty twenty, 0:08:50.497 --> 0:08:55.177 is that going to poison the base against him or 0:08:55.257 --> 0:08:56.897 is that an effective tactic. 0:08:58.097 --> 0:09:00.697 DeSantis himself does not have to sit there and say 0:09:00.697 --> 0:09:03.257 that although a debate post is going to ask him 0:09:03.297 --> 0:09:05.457 that question point blank, like you will ask, like a 0:09:05.497 --> 0:09:09.377 debate host will ask every question. De Santa's could sit 0:09:09.377 --> 0:09:12.457 there and say that outside people affecting the election, like 0:09:12.497 --> 0:09:17.257 social media and blocking one hundred and Biden, that is all. 0:09:17.057 --> 0:09:21.897 True, by the way, that's all real yeah, of course 0:09:22.777 --> 0:09:23.697 it was fixed. 0:09:23.937 --> 0:09:27.257 It wasn't exactly Stone. There's a difference. There was definitely 0:09:27.337 --> 0:09:30.417 people putting their thumbs on the scale against Trump. Guess what, 0:09:30.577 --> 0:09:33.817 Welcome to Republican verus Democrat politics that will always exist, 0:09:33.817 --> 0:09:36.337 That exists under George W. Bush as well. There was 0:09:36.657 --> 0:09:39.017 huge efforts against Bush in two thousand and four, when 0:09:39.137 --> 0:09:42.337 during his reelection, huge efforts against McCain and against Romney, 0:09:42.417 --> 0:09:45.777 and you against Donald Trump in twenty sixteen. The difference 0:09:45.777 --> 0:09:48.777 between winning and losing is is huge. And this is 0:09:48.817 --> 0:09:50.097 like the main difference I wrote with this is my 0:09:50.137 --> 0:09:53.457 substock of the National Office substock. When he ran against Hillary. 0:09:53.497 --> 0:09:56.817 You had two hugely unlikable characters, Hillary Clinton and Donald 0:09:56.817 --> 0:10:00.937 Trump incredibly unlikable. The difference was that Trump won the 0:10:01.057 --> 0:10:03.577 vote of the people who don't like either of them 0:10:03.897 --> 0:10:07.057 by twenty points. So if you didn't like Hillary or Trump, 0:10:07.337 --> 0:10:10.777 you were more likely to vote for Trump then for Hillary. Now, 0:10:10.937 --> 0:10:12.857 and this is this is the Wall Street Trunal poll 0:10:12.897 --> 0:10:15.737 that was done by Tony Fabrizio, who is Trump's pollster. 0:10:15.897 --> 0:10:18.897 This is Trump's poll and Tony is a fabulous pollster. 0:10:20.497 --> 0:10:22.697 He's and Tony, by the way, has said over and 0:10:22.737 --> 0:10:27.217 over the electionalism' Stonlee. But that's besides the point Tony said. 0:10:27.297 --> 0:10:30.657 Among people who don't like Biden to Biden and don't 0:10:30.737 --> 0:10:33.777 like Trump, that same population, which is close to the 0:10:33.777 --> 0:10:37.497 majority of the country, in both cases, they support Biden 0:10:37.577 --> 0:10:40.417 over Trump by a manager of fifty one to fifteen. 0:10:41.537 --> 0:10:43.817 So he is losing that same group of people that 0:10:43.937 --> 0:10:47.057 he won eight years ago by twenty points. He's losing 0:10:47.097 --> 0:10:51.257 them by almost forty points this time. So there's no Yeah. 0:10:51.817 --> 0:10:53.977 I was just gonna say, I want to return to this. 0:10:54.017 --> 0:10:56.057 I just want to take a moment for our sponsor 0:10:56.057 --> 0:10:58.977 here because I want to ask these two questions. Where 0:10:58.977 --> 0:11:00.777 does Trump stand? Which is a continuation what you're going 0:11:00.817 --> 0:11:02.377 to say, and I'm sorry to cut you off it 0:11:02.417 --> 0:11:05.617 in mean too, but where does Trump stand visa VI Biden? 0:11:05.657 --> 0:11:08.137 Based on the numbers right now? What does that tell 0:11:08.217 --> 0:11:10.577 us about where it's going in twenty twenty four? And then, 0:11:10.937 --> 0:11:12.937 because I have a feeling what you say maybe a 0:11:12.937 --> 0:11:17.457 little depressing, what could Trump do as the nominee to 0:11:17.617 --> 0:11:21.017 get the numbers he needs to win? So I want 0:11:21.057 --> 0:11:22.457 to come back to that a second. So we're not 0:11:22.497 --> 0:11:24.337 just all like super depressed, like why are we even 0:11:24.377 --> 0:11:27.217 having an election, because sometimes I hear people talk about that' 0:11:27.217 --> 0:11:29.857 how it feels. But how many more headlines and much 0:11:29.897 --> 0:11:33.257 more speculation of our dollar no longer being the world's currency. 0:11:33.297 --> 0:11:35.737 Do you need to see before deciding it's time to 0:11:35.817 --> 0:11:38.817 diversify with a purchase of gold. Look, I'm like you. 0:11:38.977 --> 0:11:40.977 I want our dollar to be the currency standard for 0:11:41.017 --> 0:11:43.137 a long time to come. But there are a number 0:11:43.137 --> 0:11:45.657 of strong world forces that are trying to change that, 0:11:45.937 --> 0:11:48.817 and they may well be succeeding. China, Saudi Arabia, Russia, 0:11:49.177 --> 0:11:52.417 you name them, one country after another. Look, gold is good. 0:11:52.737 --> 0:11:55.457 The value and stability of gold as both an investment 0:11:55.497 --> 0:11:57.937 and a hedge against inflation has been proven time and 0:11:57.977 --> 0:12:01.057 time again. So is my precious metals vendor of choice, 0:12:01.057 --> 0:12:03.937 Oxford Gold Group, since I started investing in Speaking of 0:12:04.017 --> 0:12:06.777 Oxford Gold Group four years ago, their advice and direction 0:12:06.897 --> 0:12:09.937 has proven right repeatedly. Gold and silver can be the 0:12:10.297 --> 0:12:13.097 protection for your portfolio you need, and it can also 0:12:13.097 --> 0:12:15.537 be used as currency too. So why not have some 0:12:15.617 --> 0:12:17.737 gold and silver on hand? I have for years and 0:12:17.777 --> 0:12:20.097 it's just a comfort to have, particularly on the mornings 0:12:20.137 --> 0:12:21.857 when you wake up learning there's another run on a 0:12:21.897 --> 0:12:25.217 bank or people not able to access their cash. Call 0:12:25.297 --> 0:12:28.137 Oxford Gold Group, who I use to, who I trust? 0:12:28.377 --> 0:12:30.337 The call is free, and the people on the receiving 0:12:30.417 --> 0:12:33.217 end of your call are knowledgeable and trustworthy. Eight three 0:12:33.217 --> 0:12:36.657 to three seven zero seven Gold eight three three seven 0:12:36.777 --> 0:12:39.737 zero seven g O l D. They make it easy. 0:12:39.777 --> 0:12:41.617 They've been at this a long time and can arrange 0:12:41.617 --> 0:12:44.337 for an easy discrete delivery to your home one more 0:12:44.337 --> 0:12:48.337 time with that number eight three three seven oh seven Gold. 0:12:48.657 --> 0:12:51.417 All right, so let's start with this is going to 0:12:51.457 --> 0:12:53.417 be kind of a good, the good, the bat and 0:12:53.457 --> 0:12:57.017 the ugly. Here, we're starting with the bat and the ugly. Though. 0:12:57.057 --> 0:13:00.697 I think kind of things look right now based on 0:13:00.737 --> 0:13:02.257 the trend. Let's just put it based on what you 0:13:02.297 --> 0:13:04.977 said about DeSantis. Let's just assume now Trump's nominee, right 0:13:05.017 --> 0:13:08.857 rest of this conversation, Let's assume Trump's nominee. So how 0:13:08.857 --> 0:13:11.217 does it look for Trump going into twenty twenty four 0:13:11.537 --> 0:13:13.377 against just against Biden? 0:13:14.497 --> 0:13:17.217 So right now, everything suggests he would lose every single 0:13:17.297 --> 0:13:20.977 state he lost in twenty twenty plus North Carolina and 0:13:21.097 --> 0:13:23.857 Texas would be extremely close. He would come very close 0:13:23.897 --> 0:13:25.617 to losing Texas within a point or two. 0:13:26.737 --> 0:13:29.537 Well, that's terrifying. Losing Texas is. 0:13:29.857 --> 0:13:33.577 Yeah, that's how bad. That's how disliked. Donald Trump has 0:13:33.617 --> 0:13:37.097 a favorability rating among voters about thirty five percent right now. 0:13:37.297 --> 0:13:39.377 He is one of the most toxic individuals on a 0:13:39.457 --> 0:13:42.377 national stage. Only the only persons more talks than him 0:13:42.857 --> 0:13:47.297 is Mike pens and Kamala Harris. So it's very bad. 0:13:47.577 --> 0:13:52.497 That's not that's not encouraging. What was really bad? What 0:13:52.657 --> 0:13:55.177 would no I've gotten me. It's really bad. Part of 0:13:55.177 --> 0:14:01.057 this for sure? What just from a demographics perspective, so 0:14:01.177 --> 0:14:04.977 everyone knows this, what was lacking in twenty twenty, right, 0:14:04.977 --> 0:14:07.337 put aside all the other noise and the and the 0:14:07.337 --> 0:14:11.257 the zucker Bucks and the ballot harvest, all that stuff, right, 0:14:11.297 --> 0:14:16.297 you know whatever, Right, what numbers weren't there that needed 0:14:16.297 --> 0:14:18.817 to be there to win the key states who either 0:14:18.897 --> 0:14:20.777 didn't show up or showed up for the other side 0:14:20.817 --> 0:14:23.257 in twenty twenty when Trump was trying to win re election. 0:14:24.337 --> 0:14:26.537 So I mean, I think that I think that Trump's 0:14:26.537 --> 0:14:29.417 campaign team, and Trump has said something to this effect. 0:14:29.617 --> 0:14:33.177 I think this campaign team made a very frequent mistake 0:14:33.377 --> 0:14:35.497 of underestimating Hammy who were going to turn it on 0:14:35.537 --> 0:14:37.377 the electric. I think that he thought it was much 0:14:37.417 --> 0:14:40.177 lower than it was, which happens. Why do a lot 0:14:40.217 --> 0:14:43.377 of campaigns from city council homewards? Just more people shout 0:14:43.417 --> 0:14:46.097 up there, more engaged. But I think when you look 0:14:46.137 --> 0:14:49.377 at the overall numbers of there, Trump is like just 0:14:49.537 --> 0:14:53.857 bleeding support. It's among white suburbanites. It is so bad, 0:14:53.897 --> 0:14:56.297 it is so heavy and so bad that I don't 0:14:56.297 --> 0:14:59.097 think that there's really much of there's. Okay, So if 0:14:59.097 --> 0:15:00.857 you look the electric right, the elector's gonna be about 0:15:00.897 --> 0:15:04.297 sixty three, sixty four percent Caucasian, maybe sixty five percent, 0:15:04.337 --> 0:15:07.177 let's say sixty five per percent Caucasian. Trump will win 0:15:07.577 --> 0:15:10.177 probably someone around fifty seven percent of that support, d 0:15:10.457 --> 0:15:12.257 six percent of that support. So you start his number 0:15:12.297 --> 0:15:15.457 at about thirty thirty six let's just say thirty six 0:15:15.537 --> 0:15:18.937 percent support, Okay, Then the elector is also twelve percent 0:15:19.017 --> 0:15:21.617 thirteen percent Black. Trump's going get one percent of that 0:15:21.777 --> 0:15:24.057 if he's lucky. So now he goes from thirty four 0:15:24.137 --> 0:15:26.057 to thirty five percent, the elector will be able to 0:15:26.057 --> 0:15:30.617 fifteen percent Hispanic and among those if Trump does amazing, 0:15:30.657 --> 0:15:32.497 if he was the number our pass, he does what 0:15:32.617 --> 0:15:35.097 he did last time, let's say he gets thirty nine percent, 0:15:35.377 --> 0:15:37.657 so it's three and a half four percent more, you're 0:15:37.777 --> 0:15:41.297 at forty two forty three, and then there's a bump 0:15:41.337 --> 0:15:43.897 from Asian, Native Americans, whatever, and you're forty three forty 0:15:43.897 --> 0:15:46.537 four percent. What Trump managed to do in his first 0:15:46.577 --> 0:15:48.457 election was one he got forty seven percent of the 0:15:48.577 --> 0:15:51.137 vote by increasing the vote of non college educated whites, 0:15:51.577 --> 0:15:54.257 because he kept enough college educated white who said I 0:15:54.337 --> 0:15:56.857 hate Hillary Clinton, I hate her too much and black 0:15:56.937 --> 0:16:00.417 voters who didn't vote. That dynamic does not work against 0:16:00.497 --> 0:16:02.417 Joe Biden. Joe Biden, if you saw his first ad, 0:16:02.497 --> 0:16:06.577 it was two major things, Democracy, thirty major things Democracy, abortion, 0:16:07.177 --> 0:16:09.897 black votes. Because he has to keep the black vote high. 0:16:10.217 --> 0:16:12.737 He has to sit there and engage the people who 0:16:12.857 --> 0:16:15.137 hate January sixth and think about it every single solitary 0:16:15.217 --> 0:16:17.777 day and say Trump's a fundamental threat of democracy and 0:16:18.417 --> 0:16:21.537 sits there and brings up and brings up. 0:16:23.257 --> 0:16:26.537 Can I tell you my concern and this is in 0:16:26.657 --> 0:16:30.217 the and again I feel obligated here to continue to 0:16:30.297 --> 0:16:32.697 try to just learn as much as possible and have 0:16:32.777 --> 0:16:35.257 the most honest conversations possible about this, because it felt 0:16:35.337 --> 0:16:38.017 like going into twenty twenty two. It was crime is bad, 0:16:38.097 --> 0:16:40.897 economy is bad. We're going to kick their asses. Everything's 0:16:40.937 --> 0:16:43.737 going to be awesome, and then whoops, not so much. 0:16:44.417 --> 0:16:46.857 And while for me and a lot of other people, 0:16:47.337 --> 0:16:51.297 Liz Cheney and the other Democrats, I know, she's a Republican, 0:16:51.337 --> 0:16:54.737 but she's a Democrat now basically doing this January sixth, 0:16:54.977 --> 0:16:58.097 you know, theatrical experience, like it was like the musical 0:16:58.257 --> 0:17:01.177 Cats or you know, guys and Dolls or something, right, 0:17:01.217 --> 0:17:03.457 but it was, you know, January sixth. I looked at 0:17:03.497 --> 0:17:07.377 this and I thought this is preposterous. But when it 0:17:07.537 --> 0:17:10.777 came to voting, it seemed that there were a lot 0:17:11.017 --> 0:17:15.817 of independence and particularly college educated white voters for whom 0:17:15.857 --> 0:17:18.817 that stuff resonated. They're like that January sixth stuff. 0:17:18.977 --> 0:17:19.137 You know. 0:17:19.297 --> 0:17:20.897 I feel I got yelled at on the Patrick that 0:17:21.057 --> 0:17:23.937 David podcast recently because I was like, look like Trump's 0:17:23.977 --> 0:17:26.737 in a tougher position now than he was running in 0:17:26.817 --> 0:17:29.817 twenty twenty in a lot of ways. I don't think 0:17:29.857 --> 0:17:31.937 he was blamed from the pandemic. I don't think that. 0:17:32.137 --> 0:17:34.137 I think that's an easy excuse. I mean, sure it 0:17:34.177 --> 0:17:37.417 made people depressed, but what do you think about, like 0:17:37.697 --> 0:17:40.737 what happened with regard to the way that it went 0:17:40.777 --> 0:17:43.177 in twenty twenty two, and how we can look at 0:17:43.217 --> 0:17:44.697 the independent vote through that prism. 0:17:45.897 --> 0:17:48.897 Well, remember in twenty sixteen, of our base of twenty 0:17:48.977 --> 0:17:51.617 sixteen voters, several million are dead just because they've aged out, 0:17:52.217 --> 0:17:56.257 and the demographic change in our country. Generation Zi Dian 0:17:56.337 --> 0:17:58.217 not was not a big voter block even in twenty 0:17:58.297 --> 0:18:00.417 twenty as it is now, and they're far left as 0:18:00.417 --> 0:18:03.617 the most progressive generation ever. Where you're going to make 0:18:03.857 --> 0:18:06.137 even though jen X, by the way, is becoming more 0:18:06.177 --> 0:18:09.537 Republican and millennials are moving more Republican, despite a stupid 0:18:09.577 --> 0:18:12.377 Financial Times article said, which is not true. Even though 0:18:12.457 --> 0:18:16.937 millennials and Gen X are moving more Republican, it doesn't 0:18:16.977 --> 0:18:19.697 account for the added votes and the dying of the 0:18:19.777 --> 0:18:23.697 greatest generation. In that silent generation them dying, we're losing 0:18:23.737 --> 0:18:25.697 a lot a lot of voters. If you look at 0:18:25.737 --> 0:18:30.777 twenty twenty, Republicans are dominating on quality of life issues, education, crime, 0:18:31.057 --> 0:18:35.377 housing prices, inflation. You look at a county like Maricopa County, Arizona, 0:18:35.457 --> 0:18:38.217 sixty percent of the of the state of Arizona lives 0:18:38.217 --> 0:18:41.297 in one county Republicans won the DA race they want 0:18:41.337 --> 0:18:45.857 to buy eight points. Americopa they won, They won this, 0:18:46.417 --> 0:18:50.337 the county school board seat, superintendent of education seat, they 0:18:50.457 --> 0:18:54.777 won almost every down ballid election there was for quality 0:18:54.777 --> 0:18:56.777 of life when they came to quality life issues in 0:18:56.937 --> 0:18:59.817 twenty twenty two, who lost and whose main coulpriers were 0:18:59.857 --> 0:19:03.297 love anyone who sat there and said abortion ban, support 0:19:03.297 --> 0:19:07.097 abortion bans and the election was stolen Carry Lake Blank 0:19:07.217 --> 0:19:12.377 Masters Obey whatever whatever his name was, and then Mark Fintrum. 0:19:12.737 --> 0:19:17.017 They all lost across the entire board. You know, Ben 0:19:17.097 --> 0:19:18.937 Tasha and not that you need to win Mayra Copa, 0:19:18.977 --> 0:19:21.177 but you can't lose it because there's a guy. Tom 0:19:21.257 --> 0:19:25.657 Horney was education superintendent of Arizona. He beat an incumbent 0:19:25.737 --> 0:19:29.017 Democrat in twenty twenty two. He won statewide Arizona. Even 0:19:29.017 --> 0:19:31.097 though he lost Maricopa. He's gonna lose by that much. 0:19:31.577 --> 0:19:36.577 So do people do people from Mago world? Do they 0:19:36.737 --> 0:19:39.017 argue with you on these numbers in this analysis, by 0:19:39.057 --> 0:19:41.657 the way, like to you, not not the performative crap 0:19:41.737 --> 0:19:43.977 on Twitter. I mean, do people really think they're wrong 0:19:44.057 --> 0:19:44.657 on this stuff? 0:19:47.337 --> 0:19:50.657 Not many? I mean not the people they just I mean, 0:19:50.697 --> 0:19:53.177 I speak to people on Trump campaign world all the time, 0:19:53.297 --> 0:19:55.617 and I just say to them, playing blank, like you 0:19:55.777 --> 0:19:58.697 know you can't win, right, like you know, like this 0:19:58.937 --> 0:20:01.377 is the Like it's just the primary. You're not gonna 0:20:01.417 --> 0:20:06.417 win a general election. People genuinely independent, suburban, they genuinely 0:20:06.897 --> 0:20:08.977 their minds are made up. There's not many people left 0:20:09.057 --> 0:20:11.457 in this country who don't how they feel about Donald Trump. 0:20:11.817 --> 0:20:14.657 And unless the conditions are so poor, things we can't 0:20:14.657 --> 0:20:16.257 see out in the future. Let's say we go into 0:20:16.337 --> 0:20:19.017 a massive recession. Let's say we go to war with 0:20:19.177 --> 0:20:22.097 China or rush like something that happens and is cataclysmic. 0:20:22.857 --> 0:20:27.177 Next level, there's another COVID problem, something on that level 0:20:27.697 --> 0:20:32.297 that we we don't foresee. And people's heads or the 0:20:32.337 --> 0:20:36.697 guns to their heads, they don't they do not like him, 0:20:36.897 --> 0:20:39.897 like it's just it's just an instinctive thing. They don't 0:20:40.257 --> 0:20:43.897 like him. And the abortion thing is really, really, really 0:20:43.977 --> 0:20:46.417 hurt Republicans, and it hurt them. If you look at 0:20:46.497 --> 0:20:48.977 the overall map of the country, there was a red wave. 0:20:49.297 --> 0:20:52.977 Blue districts got redder, red districts got redder. It was 0:20:53.057 --> 0:20:56.617 the suburban, middle class counties that care enormously about the 0:20:56.657 --> 0:20:59.897 issues of like democracy and the issues of abortion. That 0:21:00.097 --> 0:21:03.097 were the ones that moved bluer and that's where all 0:21:03.137 --> 0:21:05.177 our swing districts were, and that's where we lost them. 0:21:05.537 --> 0:21:07.577 So and it didn't help that the map wasn't really 0:21:07.577 --> 0:21:09.257 favorable to us and all the other all the rest 0:21:09.297 --> 0:21:11.177 of it. But that's why we lost the Senate candidates 0:21:11.177 --> 0:21:13.137 we lost, That's why we lost the governor candiates that 0:21:13.217 --> 0:21:18.257