WEBVTT - Welcome to the Second Wave 0:00:02.720 --> 0:00:08.240 Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day nine since 0:00:08.320 --> 0:00:14.240 coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Our main story. Virus 0:00:14.320 --> 0:00:17.360 rates are jumping in U S states that began opening 0:00:17.480 --> 0:00:21.960 up over the last month, and recent Protestant cities around 0:00:21.960 --> 0:00:27.920 the country have experts worried cases will surge in those centers. 0:00:27.960 --> 0:00:31.760 So is a second wave of the virus inevitable? And 0:00:31.840 --> 0:00:37.320 did the first ever end? But first, here's what happened 0:00:37.400 --> 0:00:48.480 in virus news today. In Beijing, there are worries about 0:00:48.479 --> 0:00:53.040 a new outbreak. The city lockdown ten residential compounds in 0:00:53.040 --> 0:00:57.560 the northwestern Hai Dingju district on Monday after finding coronavirus 0:00:57.560 --> 0:01:01.320 cases at a nearby market. The cases are linked to 0:01:01.400 --> 0:01:05.039 the nearby shing Fati wholesale market, which has been the 0:01:05.080 --> 0:01:09.560 epicenter of the new cases. China's Vice Premier Sun chun 0:01:09.640 --> 0:01:12.399 Lan set in a meeting Sunday that the risks are 0:01:12.560 --> 0:01:17.319 high for Beijing's coronavirus resurgence to spread because so many 0:01:17.400 --> 0:01:22.720 people have visited the xing Vati market. The US is 0:01:22.840 --> 0:01:25.280 likely to keep a ban on travel from the United 0:01:25.360 --> 0:01:29.720 Kingdom in place for months. Anthony Fauci, the top US 0:01:29.800 --> 0:01:34.479 infectious disease expert told Britain's Telegraph newspaper to expect travel 0:01:34.560 --> 0:01:39.000 restrictions to last for months and possibly until a vaccine 0:01:39.040 --> 0:01:43.960 is available. Fauci also expressed hope one or more vaccines 0:01:44.000 --> 0:01:47.480 being developed could be ready by the end of or 0:01:48.280 --> 0:01:52.640 one Close to four million UK citizens normally visit the 0:01:52.760 --> 0:01:57.240 US each year. The US, with some exceptions, ban travel 0:01:57.320 --> 0:02:01.360 from China, the UK, and the European Union. In May, 0:02:01.640 --> 0:02:07.760 it added Brazil as cases spiked there. Finally, the US 0:02:07.880 --> 0:02:10.880 is seeing signs of a resurgence in cases in some areas. 0:02:11.400 --> 0:02:15.360 Scott Gottlieb, former US Food and Drug Administration chief, said 0:02:15.400 --> 0:02:18.840 on CBS is Face the Nation that case counts are 0:02:19.000 --> 0:02:24.160 rising and hospitalization rates are high in some states, that, 0:02:24.639 --> 0:02:28.320 along with a high percentage of positive tests, suggests there 0:02:28.360 --> 0:02:33.280 are outbreaks underway. Gottlieb said the rise can be attributed 0:02:33.320 --> 0:02:36.680 to states loosening their stay at home restrictions and starting 0:02:36.720 --> 0:02:42.240 to reopen businesses. States like Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, 0:02:42.280 --> 0:02:45.280 South Carolina where you see those outbreaks right now, never 0:02:45.320 --> 0:02:48.239 really reduced the number of cases substantially. They had spread. 0:02:48.240 --> 0:02:52.720 It was persistent and now it's flaring up, and those 0:02:52.800 --> 0:02:58.400 resurgences are today's main story. Texas and Florida, two of 0:02:58.440 --> 0:03:02.160 the most populous US stay eights, reported record numbers of 0:03:02.280 --> 0:03:06.359 new COVID nineteen infections on Sunday. The recent surge in 0:03:06.400 --> 0:03:09.760 those states and others has led public health officials to 0:03:09.840 --> 0:03:13.400 worry that reopening the economy has come at too grave 0:03:13.520 --> 0:03:18.880 a cost. Between reopening policies, weariness was staying home and 0:03:19.080 --> 0:03:22.959 large protests around the country, Americans are moving around and 0:03:23.160 --> 0:03:27.639 interacting more than they have in months. That poses a 0:03:27.760 --> 0:03:32.320 real threat to public health. I talked to Bloomberg reporter 0:03:32.520 --> 0:03:35.520 and a court who has been covering what is increasingly 0:03:35.640 --> 0:03:42.480 looking like a second wave of the virus. Over the 0:03:42.600 --> 0:03:45.080 last week or so, we have been hearing a lot 0:03:45.280 --> 0:03:49.320 in the news about a so called second wave of 0:03:49.440 --> 0:03:52.440 this pandemic. Can you tell us a little bit about 0:03:52.560 --> 0:03:56.800 what we mean when we say second wave? The term 0:03:56.880 --> 0:04:00.360 second wave has become very polarizing. What there or not 0:04:00.800 --> 0:04:03.240 it is a second wave? I think who you ask, 0:04:03.680 --> 0:04:05.480 you know, we'll give you very different answers about it. 0:04:05.960 --> 0:04:08.680 Is it technically a second wave? If the first wave 0:04:08.840 --> 0:04:11.800 never really went away? Is the big question everyone's asking 0:04:11.920 --> 0:04:14.480 and it doesn't really matter in my book, and I 0:04:14.560 --> 0:04:18.080 think in most people's books, because the unquestionable trend here 0:04:18.279 --> 0:04:21.520 is that we're seeing in increasing cases and there's some 0:04:21.600 --> 0:04:24.400 concerning trends in terms of hospitalizations as well in some 0:04:24.520 --> 0:04:26.680 parts of the country. Now, of course, the increase in 0:04:26.760 --> 0:04:31.480 cases is not unilateral. Across the board, US cases overall 0:04:31.680 --> 0:04:33.640 have been rising at about you know, I think the 0:04:33.680 --> 0:04:36.480 average over the last week is about one point one 0:04:36.600 --> 0:04:40.719 or one percent. So across the board it looks fairly stable. 0:04:40.800 --> 0:04:42.960 But if you then zero in on certain you know, 0:04:43.080 --> 0:04:46.279 parts of the country, certain states in particular, we've seen 0:04:46.360 --> 0:04:49.520 some increases that you know, public health experts say are concerning. 0:04:49.680 --> 0:04:52.080 So um, the states in particular I think that are 0:04:52.120 --> 0:04:57.120 important to zero in here are places like Florida, Texas, UM, 0:04:57.200 --> 0:05:00.280 you know, Arizona in particular. You know, we e been 0:05:00.360 --> 0:05:03.720 seen in places like California, where you know, California was 0:05:03.800 --> 0:05:06.680 really early to respond to the coronavirus, put a lot 0:05:06.720 --> 0:05:09.480 of restrictions in place, and yet you know, California's cases 0:05:09.480 --> 0:05:11.840 are are also still going up. UM. But you know, 0:05:11.880 --> 0:05:14.640 there are certain states people talk about in particular when 0:05:14.680 --> 0:05:17.200 they say, you know, we are worried. And it's really 0:05:17.320 --> 0:05:22.080 that group of sort of Florida, Texas, Arizona that really 0:05:22.160 --> 0:05:26.719 kind of stands out to people, and is there anything 0:05:26.800 --> 0:05:30.040 that we can point to as to why these states 0:05:30.120 --> 0:05:33.200 are being hit with this surge in new cases versus 0:05:33.240 --> 0:05:38.840 others Understanding what's going on here is more complicated than 0:05:38.880 --> 0:05:40.800 it sounds. I think a lot of people are quick 0:05:40.880 --> 0:05:42.960 to rush to, well, it must be because of this 0:05:43.640 --> 0:05:46.720 or that, right. A lot of people are pointing to reopenings, 0:05:46.760 --> 0:05:49.880 which are definitely a big factor, right. I mean, if 0:05:49.920 --> 0:05:52.719 you're in a place in your local businesses are reopening, um, 0:05:53.000 --> 0:05:55.320 you're moving around more, you're interacting with more people, like 0:05:55.440 --> 0:05:58.920 that's that's obviously a factor here, but it's not unilaterally 0:05:59.040 --> 0:06:02.120 across the board clear that that's why some places are having, 0:06:02.440 --> 0:06:04.480 you know, these spikes and cases. You know, a lot 0:06:04.560 --> 0:06:06.960 of people ask about protests to what's the role of 0:06:07.000 --> 0:06:09.280 protests in all this, and the experts I spoke to 0:06:09.360 --> 0:06:11.520 sort of late last week said, it's a little early. 0:06:11.600 --> 0:06:14.200 We're not totally sure what's going on there, because it 0:06:14.279 --> 0:06:17.400 does take some time for people to develop symptoms after 0:06:17.520 --> 0:06:19.760 being exposed. And then if you think about it, if 0:06:19.800 --> 0:06:21.760 you're starting to feel sick. It maybe it takes you, 0:06:22.080 --> 0:06:24.520 you know, some period of time to seek out a test, right, 0:06:24.600 --> 0:06:27.960 to figure out how to get tested. In terms of hospitalizations, 0:06:28.040 --> 0:06:31.760 that's usually lags even further. Right, So the hospitalization numbers 0:06:31.839 --> 0:06:34.480 you know that we see, you know, usually that infection 0:06:34.600 --> 0:06:37.960 started several weeks earlier, and we only see those hospitalization 0:06:38.040 --> 0:06:41.000 numbers a lot later. And so that's another reason we're 0:06:41.080 --> 0:06:44.120 tracking cases, right, because you know, cases are a thing 0:06:44.240 --> 0:06:48.080 that that are relatively easy to track and stay somewhat 0:06:48.160 --> 0:06:50.400 closer to sort of the curve in terms of of 0:06:50.680 --> 0:06:55.160 what's happening in different states relative to hospitalizations. So it 0:06:55.279 --> 0:06:58.560 does sound like there's no relationship that we can determine 0:06:58.680 --> 0:07:01.240 yet between whether or not a state was early to 0:07:01.560 --> 0:07:05.400 lockdown or was strict in its lockdown measures or in 0:07:05.600 --> 0:07:08.520 terms of its reopening measures. Um. You made the example 0:07:08.720 --> 0:07:12.400 of California versus Arizona, and it sounds like they had 0:07:12.640 --> 0:07:16.760 very different approaches to both how quickly they locked down 0:07:16.880 --> 0:07:20.120 and how quickly they were to open up. I think 0:07:20.200 --> 0:07:22.880 it's it would be even early to be that definitive 0:07:23.040 --> 0:07:26.320 about what's going on here. Um, But something I would 0:07:26.360 --> 0:07:28.080 sort of point to in terms of trying to make 0:07:28.160 --> 0:07:30.520 sense of this trend is you know, one thing we 0:07:30.640 --> 0:07:33.600 know for sure, UM, relative to sort of the stay 0:07:33.640 --> 0:07:37.040 at home period, the lockdown period, is that Americans are 0:07:37.080 --> 0:07:40.800 moving around more, right, They're going to more non essential businesses, 0:07:41.160 --> 0:07:44.480 They're perhaps even interacting socially more, and we know that 0:07:44.640 --> 0:07:48.000 that's a risk factor for spreading the coronavirus. So, and 0:07:48.080 --> 0:07:50.520 the reason we know this is because, UM one really 0:07:50.680 --> 0:07:53.160 great sort of data set that that has been available 0:07:53.280 --> 0:07:57.240 to you know, journalists, researchers, public health expert is cell 0:07:57.320 --> 0:07:59.920 phone data. And so you can tell where people are 0:08:00.040 --> 0:08:03.040 moving around, and there's very clear evidence that people are 0:08:03.120 --> 0:08:06.040 moving around more than they were before. Now there are 0:08:06.040 --> 0:08:09.240 also maybe cultural norms I think playing into this as well. 0:08:09.760 --> 0:08:12.520 If you think about, you know, how people are behaving 0:08:12.560 --> 0:08:14.360 in your area, and I think we all see this 0:08:14.440 --> 0:08:17.560 anecdotally on the street, right Are people wearing masks? Are 0:08:17.600 --> 0:08:19.880 they actually wearing them? Are they on their chin? You know? 0:08:20.200 --> 0:08:23.360 Are people handwashing our people? You know, hanging out outside 0:08:23.400 --> 0:08:25.920 of bars with take out you know drinks, you know, 0:08:26.000 --> 0:08:29.040 are they gathering in groups? Are are there restaurants where 0:08:29.160 --> 0:08:31.760 where people are all sitting inside and not wearing masks? 0:08:31.880 --> 0:08:33.920 So you know, I think a lot of these cultural 0:08:34.000 --> 0:08:36.520 factors may also be playing playing into the spread as well, 0:08:36.600 --> 0:08:38.240 and that's a little bit less clear. You know, it's 0:08:38.280 --> 0:08:40.240 harder to measure, it's harder to get a grip on, 0:08:40.360 --> 0:08:43.439 I think, but it's obviously a part of this whole phenomenon. 0:08:43.520 --> 0:08:47.280 And we've heard public health officials and states saying we 0:08:47.679 --> 0:08:50.240 urge you to wash your hands, to wear masks, so 0:08:50.320 --> 0:08:54.240 socially distance. But you know, how well that's actually playing 0:08:54.280 --> 0:08:57.719 out in different states is hard to know. And I 0:08:57.880 --> 0:08:59.319 was hoping you might be able to go into the 0:08:59.400 --> 0:09:03.480 details of one of these states, in particular, what about Arizona. 0:09:04.080 --> 0:09:07.000 How is that state looking right now? You know, Arizona 0:09:07.080 --> 0:09:10.760 is an interesting one because we have seen this sort 0:09:10.800 --> 0:09:13.599 of trend in terms of the numbers there, and you know, 0:09:13.720 --> 0:09:15.559 I spoke with a doctor there who said, you know, 0:09:16.040 --> 0:09:18.680 I'm really hoping that because it's so hot outside, people 0:09:18.720 --> 0:09:21.760 will just stay inside in their own homes and air conditioners, 0:09:21.960 --> 0:09:24.280 you know, and not you know, be out and about 0:09:24.360 --> 0:09:27.480 and potentially helping contribute to the virus is spread. But 0:09:27.640 --> 0:09:29.640 we also know, you know, there were some very well 0:09:29.720 --> 0:09:32.800 publicized things going on in Arizona around Memorial Day weekend, 0:09:33.160 --> 0:09:37.480 there were you know, bars and restaurants in in Scottsdale 0:09:37.559 --> 0:09:40.599 that were you know, packed with people. You know, obviously, like, 0:09:40.800 --> 0:09:43.520 we don't totally know at this point. I haven't heard 0:09:43.600 --> 0:09:45.920 the public health officials in that state say this is 0:09:45.960 --> 0:09:48.439 what's going on. So um, but I did talk to 0:09:48.840 --> 0:09:51.560 a former public health official in Arizona who is now, 0:09:51.640 --> 0:09:54.160 you know, does public health kind of advocacy work, and 0:09:54.640 --> 0:09:57.000 and he said, you know, part of the problem going 0:09:57.040 --> 0:10:00.800 on the state is that after we lift did the lockdowns, 0:10:00.840 --> 0:10:02.760 things were going pretty well up to that point. But 0:10:02.880 --> 0:10:04.960 when they when they lifted you know, the stay at 0:10:05.000 --> 0:10:07.280 home orders, when they said you can kind of start 0:10:07.600 --> 0:10:11.040 engaging with life as you used to, there weren't really 0:10:11.240 --> 0:10:14.640 restrictions place and there wasn't enforcement. So he said, you know, 0:10:14.800 --> 0:10:17.200 everything was going pretty well until that point, and then 0:10:17.240 --> 0:10:19.040 it was kind of like and I love this quote 0:10:19.280 --> 0:10:22.360 party on bro and so I think, you know, that's 0:10:22.400 --> 0:10:24.719 the perspective of someone who's who's been in that who 0:10:24.840 --> 0:10:27.719 lives in that state, who sees what's going on, you know, 0:10:27.800 --> 0:10:30.160 who says, you know, at Costco people are wearing masks, 0:10:30.240 --> 0:10:32.640 but at other places people are not. And I think, 0:10:32.960 --> 0:10:35.359 you know, that might help put some of this into perspective. 0:10:36.200 --> 0:10:39.360 And you know, again, for those folks that perhaps are 0:10:39.960 --> 0:10:44.559 dismissive of a a second wave theory or that we're 0:10:44.559 --> 0:10:49.079 actually seeing a slow ramp up in cases, it does 0:10:49.120 --> 0:10:51.760 seem that they're pointing to that this is simply the 0:10:51.840 --> 0:10:55.160 result of increased testing in these states, that simply we 0:10:55.240 --> 0:10:58.319 are able to detect more cases, not that there are 0:10:58.800 --> 0:11:01.760 actually more cases. Can you go into, you know, the 0:11:02.000 --> 0:11:05.760 the logic behind that approach. You do hear this point 0:11:05.880 --> 0:11:08.840 of contention raised, which is that you know, US testing 0:11:08.920 --> 0:11:12.880 has for COVID nineteen has undoubtedly expanded dramatically since the 0:11:12.960 --> 0:11:15.679 early days of the virus. And so the question is, 0:11:15.760 --> 0:11:18.520 you know, where they're just similar amounts of cases before 0:11:18.640 --> 0:11:21.280 that we weren't detecting and now we're detecting them, and 0:11:21.360 --> 0:11:23.959 that could definitely be a factor here. It's hard to 0:11:24.080 --> 0:11:27.000 totally know for sure, but we do know that in 0:11:27.120 --> 0:11:29.599 some of these states that I mentioned before, places like 0:11:30.240 --> 0:11:34.199 Texas and Florida, the cases are rising at a higher 0:11:34.360 --> 0:11:37.280 rate than testing is rising. And so it's not a 0:11:37.360 --> 0:11:39.680 perfect measure, but it does sort of help you zero 0:11:39.760 --> 0:11:42.240 in on that argument a little bit. More, and you know, 0:11:42.320 --> 0:11:45.719 we did hear, you know, Florida's governor say this is 0:11:45.760 --> 0:11:49.280 because of increased testing, but you know, people don't really 0:11:49.360 --> 0:11:52.040 agree with him. And I think, you know, the critical 0:11:52.120 --> 0:11:54.400 factor to consider here is even if we are testing 0:11:54.480 --> 0:11:59.000 more and we're catching more cases, the unquestionable reality is 0:11:59.040 --> 0:12:02.520 that there are still cases of COVID nineteen in the US. 0:12:03.040 --> 0:12:05.240 The more people have COVID nineteen, you know, the higher 0:12:05.320 --> 0:12:08.079 the levels are in an area or a state, the 0:12:08.160 --> 0:12:10.880 more people aren't risk of catching it too. And so 0:12:11.080 --> 0:12:13.839 this is definitely a virus that is still around, that 0:12:13.920 --> 0:12:17.720 has not disappeared. The virus is still very much with us. 0:12:17.760 --> 0:12:20.439 And I think that's the question that we all have 0:12:20.520 --> 0:12:22.800 to really be thinking about, is you know, has it 0:12:22.920 --> 0:12:26.040 been tempting to believe that the virus has gone away 0:12:26.440 --> 0:12:29.360 if you don't know anyone who hasn't just because people 0:12:29.400 --> 0:12:31.600 are tired of what's been going on for the last 0:12:31.600 --> 0:12:34.839 several months. It's not something I think anyone is enjoying. Um. 0:12:34.880 --> 0:12:37.199 But the reality is the virus is still very much 0:12:37.280 --> 0:12:39.160 with us, and that's what these numbers should tell us. 0:12:39.200 --> 0:12:42.400 And the other reality is that public health officials have 0:12:42.520 --> 0:12:45.480 to decide how to respond to these numbers. And this 0:12:45.640 --> 0:12:47.480 is going to be a pretty critical time in terms 0:12:47.520 --> 0:12:51.160 of seeing you know, our state's gonna put pausing reopening 0:12:51.240 --> 0:12:53.599 on the table the way that Oregon did. You know, 0:12:53.720 --> 0:12:55.920 we don't know where things are going to go right now, 0:12:56.000 --> 0:12:59.079 but we have heard you know, New York's governor, for instance, saying, 0:12:59.240 --> 0:13:02.520 you know, New York is actually right now in a 0:13:02.720 --> 0:13:05.880 really good place in terms of the virus UM. But 0:13:06.040 --> 0:13:09.360 you know, he said, we're getting complaints about behavior. If 0:13:09.440 --> 0:13:12.320 things are bad, we can roll back restrictions. That's that's 0:13:12.360 --> 0:13:16.120 definitely an option UM. And I think that's something that 0:13:16.520 --> 0:13:19.040 you know, how this pans out, will be playing out 0:13:19.080 --> 0:13:22.280 across the United States, you know, this week and weeks 0:13:22.320 --> 0:13:25.240 to come, and potentially for a long period of time 0:13:25.320 --> 0:13:29.680 until there are better treatments and and vaccines um vaccines 0:13:29.720 --> 0:13:36.559 at all available for for this virus. That was an 0:13:36.559 --> 0:13:39.920 accord And that's our show today and for coverage of 0:13:40.000 --> 0:13:44.120 the outbreak from one bureaus around the world, visit Bloomberg 0:13:44.240 --> 0:13:48.520 dot com slash coronavirus and if you like the show, 0:13:49.040 --> 0:13:51.920 please leave us a review and a rating on Apple 0:13:52.000 --> 0:13:55.559 Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to help more 0:13:55.679 --> 0:14:00.400 listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily edition is 0:14:00.440 --> 0:14:05.599 produced by Topher foreheads Jordan Gospore, Magnus Hendrickson and me 0:14:06.160 --> 0:14:10.440 Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported by Emma Court. 0:14:11.160 --> 0:14:15.400 Original music by Leo Sedrin. Our editors are Francesco Levi 0:14:15.640 --> 0:14:20.240 and Rick Shine. Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. 0:14:21.040 --> 0:14:21.880 Thanks for listening.