Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day nine since
Speaker 1: coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Our main story. Virus
Speaker 1: rates are jumping in U S states that began opening
Speaker 1: up over the last month, and recent Protestant cities around
Speaker 1: the country have experts worried cases will surge in those centers.
Speaker 1: So is a second wave of the virus inevitable? And
Speaker 1: did the first ever end? But first, here's what happened
Speaker 1: in virus news today. In Beijing, there are worries about
Speaker 1: a new outbreak. The city lockdown ten residential compounds in
Speaker 1: the northwestern Hai Dingju district on Monday after finding coronavirus
Speaker 1: cases at a nearby market. The cases are linked to
Speaker 1: the nearby shing Fati wholesale market, which has been the
Speaker 1: epicenter of the new cases. China's Vice Premier Sun chun
Speaker 1: Lan set in a meeting Sunday that the risks are
Speaker 1: high for Beijing's coronavirus resurgence to spread because so many
Speaker 1: people have visited the xing Vati market. The US is
Speaker 1: likely to keep a ban on travel from the United
Speaker 1: Kingdom in place for months. Anthony Fauci, the top US
Speaker 1: infectious disease expert told Britain's Telegraph newspaper to expect travel
Speaker 1: restrictions to last for months and possibly until a vaccine
Speaker 1: is available. Fauci also expressed hope one or more vaccines
Speaker 1: being developed could be ready by the end of or
Speaker 1: one Close to four million UK citizens normally visit the
Speaker 1: US each year. The US, with some exceptions, ban travel
Speaker 1: from China, the UK, and the European Union. In May,
Speaker 1: it added Brazil as cases spiked there. Finally, the US
Speaker 1: is seeing signs of a resurgence in cases in some areas.
Speaker 1: Scott Gottlieb, former US Food and Drug Administration chief, said
Speaker 1: on CBS is Face the Nation that case counts are
Speaker 1: rising and hospitalization rates are high in some states, that,
Speaker 1: along with a high percentage of positive tests, suggests there
Speaker 1: are outbreaks underway. Gottlieb said the rise can be attributed
Speaker 1: to states loosening their stay at home restrictions and starting
Speaker 1: to reopen businesses. States like Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina,
Speaker 1: South Carolina where you see those outbreaks right now, never
Speaker 1: really reduced the number of cases substantially. They had spread.
Speaker 1: It was persistent and now it's flaring up, and those
Speaker 1: resurgences are today's main story. Texas and Florida, two of
Speaker 1: the most populous US stay eights, reported record numbers of
Speaker 1: new COVID nineteen infections on Sunday. The recent surge in
Speaker 1: those states and others has led public health officials to
Speaker 1: worry that reopening the economy has come at too grave
Speaker 1: a cost. Between reopening policies, weariness was staying home and
Speaker 1: large protests around the country, Americans are moving around and
Speaker 1: interacting more than they have in months. That poses a
Speaker 1: real threat to public health. I talked to Bloomberg reporter
Speaker 1: and a court who has been covering what is increasingly
Speaker 1: looking like a second wave of the virus. Over the
Speaker 1: last week or so, we have been hearing a lot
Speaker 1: in the news about a so called second wave of
Speaker 1: this pandemic. Can you tell us a little bit about
Speaker 1: what we mean when we say second wave? The term
Speaker 1: second wave has become very polarizing. What there or not
Speaker 1: it is a second wave? I think who you ask,
Speaker 1: you know, we'll give you very different answers about it.
Speaker 1: Is it technically a second wave? If the first wave
Speaker 1: never really went away? Is the big question everyone's asking
Speaker 1: and it doesn't really matter in my book, and I
Speaker 1: think in most people's books, because the unquestionable trend here
Speaker 1: is that we're seeing in increasing cases and there's some
Speaker 1: concerning trends in terms of hospitalizations as well in some
Speaker 1: parts of the country. Now, of course, the increase in
Speaker 1: cases is not unilateral. Across the board, US cases overall
Speaker 1: have been rising at about you know, I think the
Speaker 1: average over the last week is about one point one
Speaker 1: or one percent. So across the board it looks fairly stable.
Speaker 1: But if you then zero in on certain you know,
Speaker 1: parts of the country, certain states in particular, we've seen
Speaker 1: some increases that you know, public health experts say are concerning.
Speaker 1: So um, the states in particular I think that are
Speaker 1: important to zero in here are places like Florida, Texas, UM,
Speaker 1: you know, Arizona in particular. You know, we e been
Speaker 1: seen in places like California, where you know, California was
Speaker 1: really early to respond to the coronavirus, put a lot
Speaker 1: of restrictions in place, and yet you know, California's cases
Speaker 1: are are also still going up. UM. But you know,
Speaker 1: there are certain states people talk about in particular when
Speaker 1: they say, you know, we are worried. And it's really
Speaker 1: that group of sort of Florida, Texas, Arizona that really
Speaker 1: kind of stands out to people, and is there anything
Speaker 1: that we can point to as to why these states
Speaker 1: are being hit with this surge in new cases versus
Speaker 1: others Understanding what's going on here is more complicated than
Speaker 1: it sounds. I think a lot of people are quick
Speaker 1: to rush to, well, it must be because of this
Speaker 1: or that, right. A lot of people are pointing to reopenings,
Speaker 1: which are definitely a big factor, right. I mean, if
Speaker 1: you're in a place in your local businesses are reopening, um,
Speaker 1: you're moving around more, you're interacting with more people, like
Speaker 1: that's that's obviously a factor here, but it's not unilaterally
Speaker 1: across the board clear that that's why some places are having,
Speaker 1: you know, these spikes and cases. You know, a lot
Speaker 1: of people ask about protests to what's the role of
Speaker 1: protests in all this, and the experts I spoke to
Speaker 1: sort of late last week said, it's a little early.
Speaker 1: We're not totally sure what's going on there, because it
Speaker 1: does take some time for people to develop symptoms after
Speaker 1: being exposed. And then if you think about it, if
Speaker 1: you're starting to feel sick. It maybe it takes you,
Speaker 1: you know, some period of time to seek out a test, right,
Speaker 1: to figure out how to get tested. In terms of hospitalizations,
Speaker 1: that's usually lags even further. Right, So the hospitalization numbers
Speaker 1: you know that we see, you know, usually that infection
Speaker 1: started several weeks earlier, and we only see those hospitalization
Speaker 1: numbers a lot later. And so that's another reason we're
Speaker 1: tracking cases, right, because you know, cases are a thing
Speaker 1: that that are relatively easy to track and stay somewhat
Speaker 1: closer to sort of the curve in terms of of
Speaker 1: what's happening in different states relative to hospitalizations. So it
Speaker 1: does sound like there's no relationship that we can determine
Speaker 1: yet between whether or not a state was early to
Speaker 1: lockdown or was strict in its lockdown measures or in
Speaker 1: terms of its reopening measures. Um. You made the example
Speaker 1: of California versus Arizona, and it sounds like they had
Speaker 1: very different approaches to both how quickly they locked down
Speaker 1: and how quickly they were to open up. I think
Speaker 1: it's it would be even early to be that definitive
Speaker 1: about what's going on here. Um, But something I would
Speaker 1: sort of point to in terms of trying to make
Speaker 1: sense of this trend is you know, one thing we
Speaker 1: know for sure, UM, relative to sort of the stay
Speaker 1: at home period, the lockdown period, is that Americans are
Speaker 1: moving around more, right, They're going to more non essential businesses,
Speaker 1: They're perhaps even interacting socially more, and we know that
Speaker 1: that's a risk factor for spreading the coronavirus. So, and
Speaker 1: the reason we know this is because, UM one really
Speaker 1: great sort of data set that that has been available
Speaker 1: to you know, journalists, researchers, public health expert is cell
Speaker 1: phone data. And so you can tell where people are
Speaker 1: moving around, and there's very clear evidence that people are
Speaker 1: moving around more than they were before. Now there are
Speaker 1: also maybe cultural norms I think playing into this as well.
Speaker 1: If you think about, you know, how people are behaving
Speaker 1: in your area, and I think we all see this
Speaker 1: anecdotally on the street, right Are people wearing masks? Are
Speaker 1: they actually wearing them? Are they on their chin? You know?
Speaker 1: Are people handwashing our people? You know, hanging out outside
Speaker 1: of bars with take out you know drinks, you know,
Speaker 1: are they gathering in groups? Are are there restaurants where
Speaker 1: where people are all sitting inside and not wearing masks?
Speaker 1: So you know, I think a lot of these cultural
Speaker 1: factors may also be playing playing into the spread as well,
Speaker 1: and that's a little bit less clear. You know, it's
Speaker 1: harder to measure, it's harder to get a grip on,
Speaker 1: I think, but it's obviously a part of this whole phenomenon.
Speaker 1: And we've heard public health officials and states saying we
Speaker 1: urge you to wash your hands, to wear masks, so
Speaker 1: socially distance. But you know, how well that's actually playing
Speaker 1: out in different states is hard to know. And I
Speaker 1: was hoping you might be able to go into the
Speaker 1: details of one of these states, in particular, what about Arizona.
Speaker 1: How is that state looking right now? You know, Arizona
Speaker 1: is an interesting one because we have seen this sort
Speaker 1: of trend in terms of the numbers there, and you know,
Speaker 1: I spoke with a doctor there who said, you know,
Speaker 1: I'm really hoping that because it's so hot outside, people
Speaker 1: will just stay inside in their own homes and air conditioners,
Speaker 1: you know, and not you know, be out and about
Speaker 1: and potentially helping contribute to the virus is spread. But
Speaker 1: we also know, you know, there were some very well
Speaker 1: publicized things going on in Arizona around Memorial Day weekend,
Speaker 1: there were you know, bars and restaurants in in Scottsdale
Speaker 1: that were you know, packed with people. You know, obviously, like,
Speaker 1: we don't totally know at this point. I haven't heard
Speaker 1: the public health officials in that state say this is
Speaker 1: what's going on. So um, but I did talk to
Speaker 1: a former public health official in Arizona who is now,
Speaker 1: you know, does public health kind of advocacy work, and
Speaker 1: and he said, you know, part of the problem going
Speaker 1: on the state is that after we lift did the lockdowns,
Speaker 1: things were going pretty well up to that point. But
Speaker 1: when they when they lifted you know, the stay at
Speaker 1: home orders, when they said you can kind of start
Speaker 1: engaging with life as you used to, there weren't really
Speaker 1: restrictions place and there wasn't enforcement. So he said, you know,
Speaker 1: everything was going pretty well until that point, and then
Speaker 1: it was kind of like and I love this quote
Speaker 1: party on bro and so I think, you know, that's
Speaker 1: the perspective of someone who's who's been in that who
Speaker 1: lives in that state, who sees what's going on, you know,
Speaker 1: who says, you know, at Costco people are wearing masks,
Speaker 1: but at other places people are not. And I think,
Speaker 1: you know, that might help put some of this into perspective.
Speaker 1: And you know, again, for those folks that perhaps are
Speaker 1: dismissive of a a second wave theory or that we're
Speaker 1: actually seeing a slow ramp up in cases, it does
Speaker 1: seem that they're pointing to that this is simply the
Speaker 1: result of increased testing in these states, that simply we
Speaker 1: are able to detect more cases, not that there are
Speaker 1: actually more cases. Can you go into, you know, the
Speaker 1: the logic behind that approach. You do hear this point
Speaker 1: of contention raised, which is that you know, US testing
Speaker 1: has for COVID nineteen has undoubtedly expanded dramatically since the
Speaker 1: early days of the virus. And so the question is,
Speaker 1: you know, where they're just similar amounts of cases before
Speaker 1: that we weren't detecting and now we're detecting them, and
Speaker 1: that could definitely be a factor here. It's hard to
Speaker 1: totally know for sure, but we do know that in
Speaker 1: some of these states that I mentioned before, places like
Speaker 1: Texas and Florida, the cases are rising at a higher
Speaker 1: rate than testing is rising. And so it's not a
Speaker 1: perfect measure, but it does sort of help you zero
Speaker 1: in on that argument a little bit. More, and you know,
Speaker 1: we did hear, you know, Florida's governor say this is
Speaker 1: because of increased testing, but you know, people don't really
Speaker 1: agree with him. And I think, you know, the critical
Speaker 1: factor to consider here is even if we are testing
Speaker 1: more and we're catching more cases, the unquestionable reality is
Speaker 1: that there are still cases of COVID nineteen in the US.
Speaker 1: The more people have COVID nineteen, you know, the higher
Speaker 1: the levels are in an area or a state, the
Speaker 1: more people aren't risk of catching it too. And so
Speaker 1: this is definitely a virus that is still around, that
Speaker 1: has not disappeared. The virus is still very much with us.
Speaker 1: And I think that's the question that we all have
Speaker 1: to really be thinking about, is you know, has it
Speaker 1: been tempting to believe that the virus has gone away
Speaker 1: if you don't know anyone who hasn't just because people
Speaker 1: are tired of what's been going on for the last
Speaker 1: several months. It's not something I think anyone is enjoying. Um.
Speaker 1: But the reality is the virus is still very much
Speaker 1: with us, and that's what these numbers should tell us.
Speaker 1: And the other reality is that public health officials have
Speaker 1: to decide how to respond to these numbers. And this
Speaker 1: is going to be a pretty critical time in terms
Speaker 1: of seeing you know, our state's gonna put pausing reopening
Speaker 1: on the table the way that Oregon did. You know,
Speaker 1: we don't know where things are going to go right now,
Speaker 1: but we have heard you know, New York's governor, for instance, saying,
Speaker 1: you know, New York is actually right now in a
Speaker 1: really good place in terms of the virus UM. But
Speaker 1: you know, he said, we're getting complaints about behavior. If
Speaker 1: things are bad, we can roll back restrictions. That's that's
Speaker 1: definitely an option UM. And I think that's something that
Speaker 1: you know, how this pans out, will be playing out
Speaker 1: across the United States, you know, this week and weeks
Speaker 1: to come, and potentially for a long period of time
Speaker 1: until there are better treatments and and vaccines um vaccines
Speaker 1: at all available for for this virus. That was an
Speaker 1: accord And that's our show today and for coverage of
Speaker 1: the outbreak from one bureaus around the world, visit Bloomberg
Speaker 1: dot com slash coronavirus and if you like the show,
Speaker 1: please leave us a review and a rating on Apple
Speaker 1: Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to help more
Speaker 1: listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily edition is
Speaker 1: produced by Topher foreheads Jordan Gospore, Magnus Hendrickson and me
Speaker 1: Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported by Emma Court.
Speaker 1: Original music by Leo Sedrin. Our editors are Francesco Levi
Speaker 1: and Rick Shine. Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head of podcasts.
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening.