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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene, Jay Leye.

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Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Yes

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Speaker 1: Front and Cents. For me this week, the big data

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Speaker 1: point of the week, I think p M is out

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Speaker 1: of Europe. This coming Friday will be a big focus

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Speaker 1: on this market looking ahead to it all. I'm really

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Speaker 1: pleased to say David Kelly joins US now JP Morgan

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Speaker 1: Aid Management, Chief Global Strategist. David, fantastic to have you

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Speaker 1: with us. Talked to me about the message that you

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Speaker 1: have for clients this Tuesday morning. Well, yeah, I think

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Speaker 1: the messages you've You've got to look at the sort

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Speaker 1: of different paths that markets and the economy have taken.

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Speaker 1: I think we've gotten a little complacent. You know, this

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Speaker 1: is eleven years into an expansion, not much it seemed

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Speaker 1: to go on. So the markets keep on drifting high

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Speaker 1: iron in terms of equity markets, rates keep on drifting lower.

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Speaker 1: But the main story is really the one that you

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Speaker 1: and Tom have been talking about, which is there are

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Speaker 1: plenty of signs of the global economies slowing down. Very

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Speaker 1: weak numbers out of Japan, week numbers out of Europe

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Speaker 1: and China obviously in some trouble here. And in the

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Speaker 1: US we're looking at about one percent growth maybe even

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Speaker 1: less for the first quarter, and that brings US down

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Speaker 1: to about one point seven percent year over year. So

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Speaker 1: there is this slowdown. We're not seeing recession yet, but

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Speaker 1: given these slowdown and the troubles in the in the

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Speaker 1: global economy, it does seem like the market is a

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Speaker 1: little too exuberant here. Let's take the analysis and take

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Speaker 1: it a step further. What's the capital annocation decision? What

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Speaker 1: are the decisions for captain allocation that supplement your worldview? Well,

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Speaker 1: I you really if you start with the notion that

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Speaker 1: valuations have just become a little unhinged from each other.

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Speaker 1: What's expense if your bonds expensive? US equities are a

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Speaker 1: bit expensive, what's cheap um? Global equities are cheap um?

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Speaker 1: And so I've been a little overweight global equity, international

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Speaker 1: equities well to the US notwithstanding their short term problems.

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Speaker 1: And then also with in the US market, um, if

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Speaker 1: you look at the things like utilities and reads above

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Speaker 1: twenty times earnings. To look at financials damage about thirteen

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Speaker 1: times earnings. So there are pockets of value within the

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Speaker 1: US market, but generally speaking, I'd look carefully at evaluations,

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Speaker 1: and this is a kind of market in which I

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Speaker 1: would want to make sure I load up on the

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Speaker 1: on the cheap stuff and make sure I'm not overweight

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Speaker 1: the expense of stuff. And a profit warning from Apple

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Speaker 1: twelve months ago and then the stock double David, The

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Speaker 1: problem is going into that profit warning, the stock was

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Speaker 1: down by about a third or one percent from the high.

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Speaker 1: This is a stock that's near all time highs as

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Speaker 1: the company issues of revenue warning. Just in terms of

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Speaker 1: how we set up now versus twelve months ago, it

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Speaker 1: just feels like night and day. David. Yeah, well, and

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Speaker 1: I think the key is if you're a long term investor,

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Speaker 1: and what I mean is you're not going to be

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Speaker 1: spending the money in the next four or five six years,

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Speaker 1: You've got to stop trying to make a timing decision.

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Speaker 1: The real question is never when it is what and

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Speaker 1: you and you just are not going to be able

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Speaker 1: to time the way markets behave in terms of bad

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Speaker 1: news good news, I mean market market is gonna work

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Speaker 1: in very perverse ways in the short run, but in

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Speaker 1: the long run, the economy does really matter, and the

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Speaker 1: long run is about earnings and interest rates, and so

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Speaker 1: you just go to you know, try and to take

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Speaker 1: that long term. You recognize what happens is you have

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Speaker 1: this this spread and evaluation, somethings get very cheap, something

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Speaker 1: to get very expensive, and then you have something some

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Speaker 1: sort of shock, and everybody has to pay attention again.

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Speaker 1: And when they pay attention, the stuff that's most expensive

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Speaker 1: tends to get hit the hardest. Um. So, you know,

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Speaker 1: I would not try to time this very much, but

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Speaker 1: just recognize there's some areas of the market, some areas

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Speaker 1: of global markets which are cheaper than others. Let's get

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Speaker 1: a little more specific. In the Bank of America Maryland

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Speaker 1: February fund manager survey that came out today, over half

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Speaker 1: of those who responded said that the most crowded trade

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Speaker 1: was the long US tech growth stocks, but they also

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Speaker 1: said that growth stocks are expected to outperform value talks

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Speaker 1: over the next twelve months. Attention here, they're overcrowded, yet

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Speaker 1: will continue to outperform. Do you view this as an

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Speaker 1: area that is particularly expensive and worth perhaps lightning up

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Speaker 1: on Well, yeah, I think that that's a fair fair point.

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Speaker 1: And and the key is that if you have not rebalanced,

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Speaker 1: you're probably overweight anyway. And that's really the most important

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Speaker 1: thing to to look at because of the outperforms of

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Speaker 1: large cap growth stocks. But as of you know, the

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Speaker 1: end of last week, the large cap growth sector overall

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Speaker 1: broad sector was about thirty percent above its average PE

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Speaker 1: ratio of the last twenty years. Small cap value is

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Speaker 1: about five below UM. So you know, I think this

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Speaker 1: is a time if you can to move a little

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Speaker 1: bit of money out of large cup growth into small

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Speaker 1: cap value to try to, you know, be a little

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Speaker 1: bit more normal in what is increasingly abnormal market. David

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Speaker 1: ten years assume means it's thirty year bond with handle

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Speaker 1: goal is going to edge up to six d here

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Speaker 1: in two cups of coffee? Is well? Is the market

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Speaker 1: getting out front of the FED? Or does the FED

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Speaker 1: have control of the situation where they can wait for

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Speaker 1: the March meeting and the meetings after that decide to

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Speaker 1: cut rates. I don't really think this is about the FED,

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Speaker 1: or should be about the FED, because the said there's

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Speaker 1: really no point in the FED cutting rates. If the

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Speaker 1: FED cuts raised in March um, it is not going

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Speaker 1: to estimate any economic growth and will simply leave them

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Speaker 1: with less ammunition if we actually face a recession. I

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Speaker 1: don't see a recession right now. But I think the

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Speaker 1: bigger point is money is funneling towards richer and richer Americans,

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Speaker 1: and you know, the gap between rich and poor is increasing.

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Speaker 1: What that's doing is it's leaving a huge fund of

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Speaker 1: money to be invested in market. So you know, the

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Speaker 1: average person might spend some money. Richer people tend to

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Speaker 1: invest money, and that's pushing down yields, pushing up stock prices,

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Speaker 1: and I think, what's really go You know what's fascinating

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Speaker 1: to me. It's not about inflation or even the economy.

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Speaker 1: It is that there's so much money pushing into the

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Speaker 1: bond market that you know, for example, tip seals are

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Speaker 1: now running at about ten basis points negative on the

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Speaker 1: ten year tip and that's that's crazy. You're locking in

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Speaker 1: negative real return for ten years. This is really important.

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Speaker 1: Back up David and explain that's a little I think

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Speaker 1: jargon laced for our listeners, including me. The tips yield,

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Speaker 1: what's the tips yield? And what's it mean that it's

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Speaker 1: a negative by a little teen sweens amount? Well, what

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Speaker 1: what it is? That these are treasury inflation protective securities?

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Speaker 1: So what the government does. They give you a yield

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Speaker 1: and then they say, but we'll give you whatever inflation is,

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Speaker 1: so basically takes inflation out of the picture. This is

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Speaker 1: what you get after inflation. But the point is that

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Speaker 1: number has now turned negative. So so essentially they say,

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Speaker 1: whatever inflation turns out to be your we will reward

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Speaker 1: you for that. But apart from that we will give

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Speaker 1: you we will give you actually a negative return. Now,

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Speaker 1: well you know, I mean think about it when when

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Speaker 1: you save money, the ideas you save money, you're disciplined

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Speaker 1: enough to save because you want to have eleven apples

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Speaker 1: in the year instead of ten apples. What this says

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Speaker 1: is we'll give you nine apples in a year. And

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Speaker 1: people are still willing to do that. That's called German

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Speaker 1: negative rights. David Kelly, thank you so much. That JP

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Speaker 1: right now an Apple, we've a show of of of Switzerland.

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Speaker 1: Neil Campling joins us right now, uh with a the

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Speaker 1: brighter thematic view on Apple. Neil, how do you take

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Speaker 1: Apple over to other tech companies in China. Is that

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Speaker 1: a legitimate exercise or is it just too much guessing? Well?

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Speaker 1: I think for one thing, Apple is the first major

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Speaker 1: who have explicitly come out where they're warning for the

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Speaker 1: Q one to say they will be impacted, even though

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Speaker 1: they haven't actually given us the quantifiable of how big

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Speaker 1: the impact is, and we would expect many others to

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Speaker 1: to follow. Um. You know, there are the supply chain

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Speaker 1: risks or Apple itself given an Apple is twelve of

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Speaker 1: global semiconductor demand purchases. There is also the fact that

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Speaker 1: if we look at the SMP five hundred in totality,

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Speaker 1: to date, we've had earnings calls from three hundred and

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Speaker 1: sixty four companies of the SMP five hundred. Of those,

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Speaker 1: only thirty four have said that there will be an

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Speaker 1: impact from coronavirus in their guidance or modified guidance in

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Speaker 1: some capacity due to the virus. So the vast majority

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Speaker 1: have not mentioned the virus, either because they just do

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Speaker 1: not know yet or in a few instances because there

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Speaker 1: won't be an impact because perhaps there are a utility company.

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Speaker 1: But the majority, i think it's fair to say, just

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Speaker 1: don't yet know how big the impact will be. But

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Speaker 1: this is an ongoing, dynamic situation which is still to

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Speaker 1: play out, I think for many companies and near I've

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Speaker 1: been surprised that for many companies we haven't seen the

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Speaker 1: kind of news that was dropped by Apple yesterday. But

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Speaker 1: I guess to your point, they just can't get their

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Speaker 1: hands around this year. What's been amazing for many of

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Speaker 1: us reading through the south Side research, No, it's getting

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Speaker 1: our hands around the analyst community and their views is

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Speaker 1: the T word just keeps coming up again and again

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Speaker 1: and again. Transitory, temporary, transitory, temporary, nil. At what point

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Speaker 1: do you look at things and say, perhaps this one

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Speaker 1: be as transitory as some people think. I think that's

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Speaker 1: when we have to start thinking that if you think

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Speaker 1: that in China specifically, given the size of the economy,

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Speaker 1: there is effectively no no red envelope season for this year. UM.

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Speaker 1: There Now we're seeing some data such as the germanw

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Speaker 1: data this morning, UM, such as the Beer of a

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Speaker 1: Fun manager surveys. They're all now being impacted in terms

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Speaker 1: of lower confidence. We are seeing issues in terms of

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Speaker 1: hitting European confidence and that the risk, I think is

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Speaker 1: that there won't be this snap back potentially in Q

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Speaker 1: two because of this kind of hangover effect that affects

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Speaker 1: many industries and it's not just specific to pure Chinese demand.

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Speaker 1: Um so the risks of five G smartphones in the

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Speaker 1: second half of the year could be impacted. Travel, tourism,

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Speaker 1: retail is obviously having having the bront of some issues

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Speaker 1: as well. If we've heard from we've heard from the

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Speaker 1: likes of under Armor last week and Ralph Lauren as well,

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Speaker 1: trying to give some sort of qualification around how risky

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Speaker 1: this could be going forward. Now if you think that

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Speaker 1: we haven't impacted that yet, but it will be an issue. Neil,

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Speaker 1: with all your experience at mirror buz securities as you

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Speaker 1: look at the broader effects and implications in response to

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Speaker 1: the coronavirus and wondering what you're seeing in some of

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Speaker 1: the emerging Asian economies. A lot of people saying that

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Speaker 1: China is responding with more stimulus, that they'll be able

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Speaker 1: to stave off some of the economic slowdown, some of

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Speaker 1: these other economies less prepared to do. So what type

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Speaker 1: of demand cannibalization, what kind of loss in demand are

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Speaker 1: we going to see from those nations. It's a great question.

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Speaker 1: I think that we're already I'm seeing, for example, visions

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Speaker 1: down to Singapore GDP. For example, we've had South Korea

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Speaker 1: UM politicians coming out just this morning and talking about

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Speaker 1: a risk of an existential crisis is not controlled. UM.

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Speaker 1: You know you're seeing impacts on auto vendors in South Korea.

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Speaker 1: You would naturally expect some fall out into other countries

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Speaker 1: such as Vietnam. So supply chain that exists around China

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Speaker 1: is essential for the whole of the UH, the economic region.

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Speaker 1: What your study or and they say, respect your guestimate

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Speaker 1: of the elasticity of cutting expenses for industrial and tech

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Speaker 1: and TMT, can they do they have the wiggle room

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Speaker 1: to cut cross fast given revenue prospects that are slower.

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Speaker 1: I think what we generally generally see if you're if

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Speaker 1: you're a company that's reliant on industrial or your you're

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Speaker 1: tech heavy's very difficult to reduce that. If you think

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Speaker 1: of if you're a capacity utilization focused semiconduct to fab,

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Speaker 1: you might not need the people that you would need

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Speaker 1: a hon highst iPhone city, but you have to keep

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Speaker 1: those fabs at plus capacity utilization rates otherwise your margins

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Speaker 1: get negatively impacted very quickly and it's also very slow

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Speaker 1: to to increase capacity and once it's been cut, so

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Speaker 1: it's often not something you can just dial down for

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Speaker 1: two weeks and not have an impact thereafter. And I'd

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Speaker 1: like to turn to something else just to wrap things up.

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Speaker 1: And that's the Trump administer ration, according to several reports,

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Speaker 1: considering new restrictions on exports to kind of get technology

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Speaker 1: into China. This is something that over the last month

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Speaker 1: or so has been increasing the overlook because of what

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Speaker 1: has been happening with the coronavirus. How closely are looking

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Speaker 1: at those kind of moves potentially coming up this year? Neil,

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Speaker 1: I think it's it's something which we described as an

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Speaker 1: ongoing I P war between China and the U S

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Speaker 1: which is very concerning for supply chains. For one thing,

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Speaker 1: I think that we've had obviously the blacklisting of Harway

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Speaker 1: last year, but actually what what it ended up happening

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Speaker 1: was that Hallway just supply got components supplies from other

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Speaker 1: countries outside of the US and displacing the US component companies.

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Speaker 1: So the US is now looking at other tactics. If

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Speaker 1: you basically banned equipment being shipped out to China and

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Speaker 1: not giving those licenses. It has rumsfications for for many

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Speaker 1: companies around the world. And I think basically what is

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Speaker 1: happening here is we have a superpower battle to which

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Speaker 1: which superpower nation becomes the lead for five G technologies

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Speaker 1: because many reports suggestive fourteen trillion dollars of economic gains

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Speaker 1: potential between now and twenties thirty five from five G

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Speaker 1: and that I think is the heart of what's going

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Speaker 1: on in this battle. A huge, huge issue right now

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Speaker 1: between the United States and China and Europe Toime Europe,

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Speaker 1: funny At somebody stuck somewhere in between, and Prime Minister

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Speaker 1: Johnson maybe more in between than the others in between,

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Speaker 1: you know, I mean his trip is canceled or somebody's

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Speaker 1: trip is canceled. I haven't seen that. Yeah, I think

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Speaker 1: we saw that over the weekend. He's not getting along

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Speaker 1: with the President of the United States. Right now, we're

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Speaker 1: going to touch on the politics story for a moment.

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Speaker 1: Is of course reigned supreme. This morning we had two poles,

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Speaker 1: Emerist Paul More of a national poll in the Nevada

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Speaker 1: and South Carolina and then a month university pol which

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Speaker 1: was very specifically on Virginia as well, a land America

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Speaker 1: has been very good to join us from Brookings. She's

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Speaker 1: a senior fellow. There was some important books on presidents. Elena,

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Speaker 1: I believe we have a debate and our Kevin SURREALI

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Speaker 1: would suggested debate will be contentious, raucous, particularly if Mr

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg uh shows up and is part of that debate

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Speaker 1: as well. How does a grizzled pro like you look

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Speaker 1: at one of these debates? What do you look for

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Speaker 1: that we miss? Well? I think what you look for

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Speaker 1: is who is going to have the greatest effect on

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Speaker 1: the upcoming contest. So it's not necessarily who quote wins

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Speaker 1: the evening, but what the momentum is coming out of

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Speaker 1: the debate into the contest, because we are now in

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Speaker 1: the real thing. So for instance, in the New Hampshire

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Speaker 1: debate a couple of weeks ago, we saw a stellar

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Speaker 1: performance by Senator Amy Globachar and that translated immediately into

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Speaker 1: support from uncommitted, previously uncommitted voters in New Hampshire. And

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Speaker 1: your study of these elections, are there too many candidates

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Speaker 1: for the debate tomorrow? Like like you should somebody fall

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Speaker 1: on the sword here before the debate to clear it

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Speaker 1: up for the either the liberals or the moderates. Well,

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Speaker 1: actually the field is cut down considerably for this debate.

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Speaker 1: It's a much smaller field than we have had, and

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Speaker 1: it's a very interesting field because we have two strong

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Speaker 1: left of center candidates, especially senator standards, And of course

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Speaker 1: the introduction of Michael Bloomberg into this mix is going

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Speaker 1: to really shake things up, and we will see if

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Speaker 1: he has actual voter appeal when he's on his own

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Speaker 1: as opposed to in a package, um, you know, setting

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Speaker 1: like a TV commercial. So when you mentioned Mike, so

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Speaker 1: let's talk about him. The found a majority onder of Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: I'll pay the parent company of Bloomberg News. As we've

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Speaker 1: seen in the previous debates, if you make a search

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Speaker 1: in the polls, you'll become the focus of attention. Happen

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Speaker 1: to Mattie put a judge just a couple of weeks back,

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Speaker 1: and most people assume it what happened to Mr Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: this coming Wednesday? And then how willing will they be

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Speaker 1: to make that pivot to shopping that shopping that sword,

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Speaker 1: so to speak, and aim at Mr Bloomberg himself. Well,

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Speaker 1: that's going to be very interesting because I think that

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Speaker 1: We have a little bit of precedent that in that

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Speaker 1: in Tom stire Um, people are reluctant to be too

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Speaker 1: mean to these front running billionaires because in fact stire

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Speaker 1: and Bloomberg have been very generous with their money all

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Speaker 1: the way across the board to the Democrats. So a

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Speaker 1: Democratic uh candidate up there, on the one hand, would

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Speaker 1: like to take down Michael Bloomberg a couple of notches.

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Speaker 1: On the other hand, doesn't want to make them too mad,

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Speaker 1: because we, the we and the Democrats, everybody needs his

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Speaker 1: money going into the fall. There's also a question about

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Speaker 1: how much people are going to be looking for some

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Speaker 1: sort of message which is being given by the pot

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Speaker 1: pulists versus the electability argument that the Canada could actually

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Speaker 1: beat President Trump in an election. How much do you

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Speaker 1: think where where do you think the Democratic Party is

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Speaker 1: tipping at this point in terms of the importance of

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Speaker 1: both of those things, a sort of driving message versus

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Speaker 1: just beating Trump. Well, I think it's still mostly on

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Speaker 1: the beating Trump page. However, Bernie Sanders has a very

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Speaker 1: very coherent message. It's been a constant message and he

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Speaker 1: has a very devoted core in the Democratic Party. What

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Speaker 1: we're going to see probably not um in Nevada or

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Speaker 1: South Carolina, at least for the first time on Super Tuesday.

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Speaker 1: Is whether or not he can expand his base. Some

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Speaker 1: people say it is both the ceiling um and the floor. Well,

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Speaker 1: where are you on that? I mean, that was my question.

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Speaker 1: You just answer my question. But but where are you

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Speaker 1: on that? Is there any evidence that the senator from

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Speaker 1: Vermont can quote unquot would expand his base? Um? There's

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Speaker 1: a little bit of evidence absolutely, um, Um, but not

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Speaker 1: much in New Hampshire. He um seems to have done

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Speaker 1: not really as well as he did four years ago.

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Speaker 1: On the other hand, Um, he is moving slightly among

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Speaker 1: African American voters, which is something he hasn't done in

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Speaker 1: the past. So there's a little bit of evidence that

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Speaker 1: he's getting some traction beyond his traditional base. Ellen, thank

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Speaker 1: you so much. Ellenne kimberk with Brookings this morning in

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Speaker 1: Harvard joining us here and particularly where they're important books

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Speaker 1: on presidential history as well. I'm Mark Paul swinging slide

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Speaker 1: into our esteem guest. Michael Holland has been so entrenched

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Speaker 1: in our equity cadence are equity discourse for decades that

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Speaker 1: we forget his accomplishments not only with Oppenheimer Company years

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Speaker 1: ago in a small shop called black Stone, but his

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Speaker 1: worked for his Harvard uh College and also the Winston

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Speaker 1: Churchill Foundation of the United States. This is not Michael

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Speaker 1: Holland's first rodeo, is it, Tom, No, it's not his

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Speaker 1: first great bullmarket. Michael Holland, Chairman of Holland and Company.

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Speaker 1: Thanks so much for joining us. Michael. So, you know,

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Speaker 1: as we step back here and look at the market,

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Speaker 1: the performance we had in twenty nineteen, the uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: pretty solid start here to you know, to the extent

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Speaker 1: that there are some concerns out there. One of them

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Speaker 1: is the concentration of the performance. And you know, roughly

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Speaker 1: a handful of names, some some tech names that we

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Speaker 1: all know. The Amazons are, the Microsoft's are the Apples

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Speaker 1: of the world. How concerned are you about that aspect

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Speaker 1: of the market's overall performance. Well, concerned, Paul, is a word.

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Speaker 1: I would just move back from that and say, mindful

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Speaker 1: that when these things get crazed. And I was born

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Speaker 1: into the business. Tom knows in something called the nifty

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Speaker 1: fifty or a handful of stocks back in the seventies

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Speaker 1: was doing what we're seeing today. But it's it's different

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Speaker 1: in that the valuations of the big names, for the

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Speaker 1: Microsoft's and the Apples, the valuations are not as egrageous

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Speaker 1: as they were back then. Some friends have recently asked me,

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Speaker 1: as they want to do, uh, when would you sell

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Speaker 1: all of your stocks, which is a variation on some

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Speaker 1: of the things Tom King has asked me over the years.

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Speaker 1: And I would sell all my stocks if they became

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Speaker 1: egrageously priced, as I observed pain Fleet in the nine

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Speaker 1: seventies when I broke into the business, because the crash

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Speaker 1: of those nifty fifty stocks was was breathtaking, and how

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Speaker 1: much capital was was was destroyed, And so I think

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Speaker 1: at this point it's it's something to be mindful of.

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Speaker 1: I would actually say, you've actually actually asked a great question,

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Speaker 1: because the coronavirus may actually cause it has the possibility

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Speaker 1: of causing something like that to happen again if the

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Speaker 1: world liquidity spigots go wide open sometime in the next

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Speaker 1: six or twelve months. But but what's so interesting, Michael,

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Speaker 1: is the backdrop are stunningly negative real yields and in

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Speaker 1: some places in the world truenominal yields negative thirty year

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Speaker 1: bond with the handle three cups of coffee. Ago is

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Speaker 1: almost a negative yield that we saw in oh eight

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Speaker 1: oh nine. What is that signal to you to see

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Speaker 1: bond prices bid up and yields ever lower. Uh, it's

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Speaker 1: it's something that we've never seen in our lifetimes in business.

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Speaker 1: It makes all the economics of minds go go crazy

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Speaker 1: when they talk about how do you how do you

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Speaker 1: get real pricing in all of the world's markets when

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Speaker 1: you have negative yields? There's a there's just a an

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Speaker 1: inherent contradiction and and all of this so that risk

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Speaker 1: free rates of return no longer have any meaning. So

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Speaker 1: what But Tom, it's it's actually interesting because you and

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Speaker 1: I hope are not talking about this a year from now.

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Speaker 1: But it's possible that because of what you just described,

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Speaker 1: as well as uh, the possibility that we have a

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Speaker 1: Spiccot opening in terms of even further liquidity around the world,

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Speaker 1: that we could get to crazy evaluations once again, which

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Speaker 1: causes then we know what the other side of that is.

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Speaker 1: But in the meantime, so the risk is in both directions,

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Speaker 1: I think always, but I think now we have a

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Speaker 1: little more risk in the other direction, which would be

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Speaker 1: upward rather than onward. It's not a good time. Euro

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Speaker 1: breaking down one oh seven nine, d X y stronger

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Speaker 1: d X yes, dollar strength. Yeah, Michael, you know, it's interesting,

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Speaker 1: were just following up on Tom's you know question about

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Speaker 1: you know, the bond market. You're just looking at our

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Speaker 1: commodity screen here on the Bloomberg terminal. You look at

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Speaker 1: the energy down, double digit, metals down, mid single digits,

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Speaker 1: aggs down, you know, read on the screen. So the

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Speaker 1: commodity market is clearly saying, hey, maybe there's some slowing

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Speaker 1: global growth. Maybe the coronavirus here is a big issue

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Speaker 1: for global growth. The equity markets not so much. And again,

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Speaker 1: is that just kind of go back to that argument

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Speaker 1: of the Fed and central banks around the world keeping

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Speaker 1: liquidity in the marketplace. Yes, and yes, and and and

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Speaker 1: Paull to your to your point. Uh the inflation, That

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Speaker 1: inflation has been a word that has been around Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: a lot recently in the different formats and media. But uh,

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Speaker 1: and and the inflation today is what Tom just talked about.

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Speaker 1: With the bond markets. The prices there are stratospheric. Uh

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Speaker 1: so knows bleed time in terms of prices and as

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Speaker 1: he says, negative yields. So those financial assets, and then

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Speaker 1: you have the stock market, you have the the facebooks

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Speaker 1: and the test list and so on, so you have

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Speaker 1: you have all of these things going on simultaneously with

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Speaker 1: with the commodities marketing. There's no there's no inflation of

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Speaker 1: that kind of thing to be worried about with gold, etcetera.

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Speaker 1: On the other hand, you have inflation in the asset

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Speaker 1: prices of financial assets, and right now I don't think

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Speaker 1: it's as worrisome as your original question. Uh positive. But

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Speaker 1: on the one hand, on the other hand, that's what

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Speaker 1: I'm watching right now. We run out of time. Michael Holland,

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Speaker 1: thank you as so much. I got about ten more

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Speaker 1: questions and we'll continue with him another time. Mr Holland,

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Speaker 1: Holland Company, thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast.

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Speaker 1: Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or

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Speaker 1: whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom

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Speaker 1: Keene before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide.

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Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio.