1 00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:03,880 Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast. 2 00:00:04,800 --> 00:00:06,840 Speaker 2: You can hear the chatters from the crowd. 3 00:00:07,840 --> 00:00:11,000 Speaker 1: We have a big chance, a big chance to make it. 4 00:00:11,119 --> 00:00:14,880 Speaker 1: Alon Push the Big Bucks three pointer. 5 00:00:15,320 --> 00:00:25,079 Speaker 2: Fine, Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, NBA Playoffs Edition. 6 00:00:25,560 --> 00:00:26,560 Speaker 1: Glad to have you with us. 7 00:00:26,560 --> 00:00:28,639 Speaker 2: My name is Matt Moore. I'm the senior NBA rider 8 00:00:28,720 --> 00:00:31,639 Speaker 2: for the Action Network and my guest this week is 9 00:00:31,720 --> 00:00:36,560 Speaker 2: Jason tim host of Hoops Tonight over the Volume Podcast Network. 10 00:00:36,560 --> 00:00:39,400 Speaker 2: Of course, our show The Favorites with Chad and Simon 11 00:00:39,479 --> 00:00:42,479 Speaker 2: is on the Volume Podcast Network along with Oh you know, 12 00:00:42,640 --> 00:00:46,199 Speaker 2: Draymond Green and a host of other great, great shows. 13 00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:48,360 Speaker 2: Jason One, thank you so much for coming on. 14 00:00:48,760 --> 00:00:50,400 Speaker 3: Mister Matt moo. It is good to see your face. 15 00:00:50,440 --> 00:00:53,000 Speaker 4: I sincerely appreciate the invite and I am excited to 16 00:00:53,040 --> 00:00:54,200 Speaker 4: talk some basketball with you. 17 00:00:54,560 --> 00:00:54,720 Speaker 3: Yeah. 18 00:00:54,800 --> 00:00:56,800 Speaker 2: Should be great. And we're not going to talk about 19 00:00:56,840 --> 00:00:58,960 Speaker 2: all the nons that's going out of LA today. As 20 00:00:59,000 --> 00:01:02,080 Speaker 2: you someone that's covered the Lakers are going to be 21 00:01:02,120 --> 00:01:04,200 Speaker 2: spared from having to cover the ongoing. 22 00:01:03,800 --> 00:01:05,200 Speaker 1: Power struggle out in LA. 23 00:01:05,720 --> 00:01:06,960 Speaker 2: What we are going to do is we're gonna go 24 00:01:07,040 --> 00:01:11,720 Speaker 2: over the NBA Playoffs now. We're recording this on Tuesday, 25 00:01:11,720 --> 00:01:12,800 Speaker 2: afternoon late. 26 00:01:12,840 --> 00:01:14,320 Speaker 1: We're about an hour. 27 00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:18,600 Speaker 2: And a half before the tip off of Heat Sixers 28 00:01:18,640 --> 00:01:21,080 Speaker 2: Game five, so we're gonna touch on that series briefly 29 00:01:21,080 --> 00:01:23,480 Speaker 2: in a very broad sense, as well as MAVs Sons, 30 00:01:23,520 --> 00:01:25,240 Speaker 2: but because we don't know the results of those by 31 00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:25,679 Speaker 2: the time that you. 32 00:01:25,760 --> 00:01:27,560 Speaker 1: Hear this podcast, they'll be pretty light. 33 00:01:27,600 --> 00:01:30,000 Speaker 2: We will talk about Eastern futures, Western futures, and of 34 00:01:30,000 --> 00:01:33,240 Speaker 2: course NBA titles odds, and I want to get Jason's 35 00:01:33,280 --> 00:01:36,640 Speaker 2: thoughts on NBA Finals MVP. We are going to go 36 00:01:36,680 --> 00:01:39,160 Speaker 2: in depth, however, on one series, which we'll start with. 37 00:01:39,200 --> 00:01:40,760 Speaker 2: But first I want to let you know that everything 38 00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:42,360 Speaker 2: we talk about today can be found in the Action 39 00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:44,639 Speaker 2: Network app. It's the best way for you track your picks, 40 00:01:44,800 --> 00:01:47,640 Speaker 2: get information on where the money's coming in, how the 41 00:01:47,680 --> 00:01:50,520 Speaker 2: markets have moved, signals, you get track picks in there, 42 00:01:50,560 --> 00:01:52,680 Speaker 2: all sorts of great stuff. Check it out the Action 43 00:01:52,960 --> 00:01:56,760 Speaker 2: Network app on Google Play and the app store. All right, Jason, 44 00:01:57,040 --> 00:01:59,120 Speaker 2: So I was supposed to do an Action Network podcast 45 00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:00,880 Speaker 2: this week, and I was thinking a guess to who 46 00:02:00,920 --> 00:02:02,600 Speaker 2: to do, and just as I was thinking of it, 47 00:02:02,640 --> 00:02:04,840 Speaker 2: you popped up with like really great analysis. I thought 48 00:02:05,280 --> 00:02:08,280 Speaker 2: on Celtics Bucks It wasn't so much that I agree 49 00:02:08,280 --> 00:02:10,200 Speaker 2: with everything, but like the level of detail in the 50 00:02:10,200 --> 00:02:11,720 Speaker 2: way it's oriented. I was like, oh, this will be 51 00:02:11,760 --> 00:02:14,399 Speaker 2: like a good discussion for us to kind of dive into. 52 00:02:14,520 --> 00:02:18,160 Speaker 2: So thanks for coming on, let's start right there. So Bucks, 53 00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:22,919 Speaker 2: Celtics tied to to Celtics storm back from down in 54 00:02:23,040 --> 00:02:26,280 Speaker 2: Game four and really I must win environment for them. 55 00:02:26,480 --> 00:02:28,480 Speaker 1: They were up against it down late. 56 00:02:28,639 --> 00:02:32,079 Speaker 2: Al Horford goes for thirty, Tatum goes for thirty, They 57 00:02:32,080 --> 00:02:34,480 Speaker 2: get the win, the even the series, and now, as 58 00:02:34,480 --> 00:02:37,639 Speaker 2: it has been throughout the series, everything is flipped. We 59 00:02:37,639 --> 00:02:41,200 Speaker 2: were back to Celtics minus one ninety Bucks plus one 60 00:02:41,360 --> 00:02:44,760 Speaker 2: sixty to win the series. Celtics minus one and a 61 00:02:44,800 --> 00:02:47,760 Speaker 2: half is plus two ten, which is basically telling you 62 00:02:47,840 --> 00:02:50,160 Speaker 2: that the books are screaming at you this thing is 63 00:02:50,240 --> 00:02:53,720 Speaker 2: gonna go seven to let you know. I bet Celtics 64 00:02:53,760 --> 00:02:56,000 Speaker 2: plus one and a half after they lost that game 65 00:02:56,080 --> 00:02:58,600 Speaker 2: one is I was like, the Celtics are good enough 66 00:02:58,600 --> 00:03:02,000 Speaker 2: to get this stretched out. So give me first your 67 00:03:02,040 --> 00:03:06,079 Speaker 2: initial thought on Celtics Bucks from a two to two standpoint, 68 00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:09,120 Speaker 2: and where you see the series going from here given 69 00:03:09,160 --> 00:03:09,919 Speaker 2: what we've seen. 70 00:03:10,680 --> 00:03:14,919 Speaker 4: So again, Milwaukee, I think has performed about as well 71 00:03:14,960 --> 00:03:17,360 Speaker 4: as you possibly can so far to this point in 72 00:03:17,400 --> 00:03:20,200 Speaker 4: the series. I mean, you know, the big turning point 73 00:03:20,200 --> 00:03:23,280 Speaker 4: for me, everyone seems to be aware that Boston's good. 74 00:03:24,080 --> 00:03:26,760 Speaker 4: I think that they've been good for long enough now 75 00:03:26,840 --> 00:03:29,400 Speaker 4: that if you're not admitting that, then you're just either 76 00:03:29,480 --> 00:03:32,840 Speaker 4: a Lakers fan or someone who's just interested in getting 77 00:03:32,840 --> 00:03:38,200 Speaker 4: in Twitter arguments. Like basically, my hypothesis behind getting behind 78 00:03:38,320 --> 00:03:42,400 Speaker 4: this team in particular, as my personal championship favorite, stemmed 79 00:03:42,440 --> 00:03:45,840 Speaker 4: from January twenty third on to the end of the season, 80 00:03:45,960 --> 00:03:48,120 Speaker 4: they were not just the best defense in the league, 81 00:03:48,120 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 4: but the best defense by a mile. They were I 82 00:03:50,240 --> 00:03:53,480 Speaker 4: think about five points better than everybody else in the league. 83 00:03:53,600 --> 00:03:55,600 Speaker 4: They also had the best offense in the league from 84 00:03:55,680 --> 00:03:57,600 Speaker 4: January twenty third on, although I was a little bit 85 00:03:57,600 --> 00:04:01,320 Speaker 4: skeptical of that because I don't love the overall collective 86 00:04:01,520 --> 00:04:04,280 Speaker 4: like basketball IQ offensively, of this group. 87 00:04:04,320 --> 00:04:05,560 Speaker 3: I don't think they have like a. 88 00:04:05,440 --> 00:04:09,040 Speaker 4: Real traditional playmaking guard or wing that kind of can 89 00:04:09,120 --> 00:04:12,120 Speaker 4: orient them. I think that, ironically has been their biggest 90 00:04:12,160 --> 00:04:14,560 Speaker 4: flawed this series is they kind of lose their offensive 91 00:04:14,560 --> 00:04:17,440 Speaker 4: identity from time to time and take some rushed shots 92 00:04:17,440 --> 00:04:19,840 Speaker 4: and they start to force things a little bit, And 93 00:04:19,880 --> 00:04:23,320 Speaker 4: if you followed this series, the story has been that 94 00:04:23,560 --> 00:04:25,680 Speaker 4: Milwaukee hasn't been able to score in the half court 95 00:04:25,760 --> 00:04:29,640 Speaker 4: nearly as well as Boston has, but they're absolutely destroying 96 00:04:29,680 --> 00:04:32,240 Speaker 4: Boston in transition. So during the stretches of the game 97 00:04:32,279 --> 00:04:36,240 Speaker 4: where Boston gets kind of helter skelter and early quick shots, 98 00:04:36,320 --> 00:04:38,960 Speaker 4: you know, long shots, long rebounds, turnovers, things like that, 99 00:04:39,040 --> 00:04:41,720 Speaker 4: it's like Yannis run out dunk, Giannis run out, kick 100 00:04:41,760 --> 00:04:44,080 Speaker 4: out to an open shooter, Yannis run out drop off 101 00:04:44,080 --> 00:04:46,640 Speaker 4: to somebody. It's been that kind of story. The reason 102 00:04:46,640 --> 00:04:48,599 Speaker 4: why I was so confident in Boston is I've never 103 00:04:48,680 --> 00:04:52,159 Speaker 4: seen a defense do what they did to Kevin Durant 104 00:04:52,160 --> 00:04:55,920 Speaker 4: and Kyrie, Like they couldn't even get good looks, not 105 00:04:55,960 --> 00:04:58,920 Speaker 4: even decent looks. As that series was progressed and KD 106 00:04:59,120 --> 00:05:01,640 Speaker 4: made some shots and Game four, but like it was 107 00:05:01,680 --> 00:05:07,040 Speaker 4: a level of perimeter contain and contesting tough shots that 108 00:05:07,400 --> 00:05:09,880 Speaker 4: I haven't really seen from a team. The close second 109 00:05:09,880 --> 00:05:12,880 Speaker 4: think of is maybe the twenty nineteen Raptors in recent 110 00:05:13,000 --> 00:05:16,360 Speaker 4: NBA history, But obviously the offense for Boston is the 111 00:05:16,360 --> 00:05:18,640 Speaker 4: big wrinkle. And then Yannis, like Giannis's I think is 112 00:05:18,680 --> 00:05:23,839 Speaker 4: demonstrated in this series a level of adaptability that is 113 00:05:23,880 --> 00:05:27,240 Speaker 4: what makes him so good. Like in efficiency, he's been 114 00:05:27,320 --> 00:05:30,120 Speaker 4: every bit as bad as KD was. Like his shooting 115 00:05:30,120 --> 00:05:32,880 Speaker 4: percentage in the regular season was sixty three percent true shooting. 116 00:05:33,360 --> 00:05:36,839 Speaker 4: In this series, it's forty eight percent. He's catastrophically bad 117 00:05:37,160 --> 00:05:40,520 Speaker 4: in terms of compared to his usual standard in efficiency, 118 00:05:40,600 --> 00:05:44,440 Speaker 4: but he's just like dominating every other area of the game, 119 00:05:44,480 --> 00:05:47,600 Speaker 4: in the physicality on the defensive end. I've been blown 120 00:05:47,640 --> 00:05:50,080 Speaker 4: away by his playmaking in this series. Yannis fans have 121 00:05:50,120 --> 00:05:52,680 Speaker 4: been trying to teach me about that over the course 122 00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:55,200 Speaker 4: of the season, and I've been reluctant, and I've just 123 00:05:55,240 --> 00:05:58,040 Speaker 4: been proven flat out wrong. He's a level of playmaker 124 00:05:58,040 --> 00:06:00,000 Speaker 4: that I didn't think he was capable of at this point. 125 00:06:00,279 --> 00:06:03,880 Speaker 4: And so that's why you can't ever be off of Milwaukee, 126 00:06:03,960 --> 00:06:06,640 Speaker 4: because betting against that guy's a fool's errand in a 127 00:06:06,680 --> 00:06:08,680 Speaker 4: lot of different ways. But to me, I kind of 128 00:06:08,680 --> 00:06:10,719 Speaker 4: saw the writing on the wall and the half court offense. 129 00:06:10,800 --> 00:06:14,000 Speaker 4: I thought down to one I predicted Boston would win 130 00:06:14,080 --> 00:06:15,840 Speaker 4: the next three games, and I think that's what's going 131 00:06:15,880 --> 00:06:17,920 Speaker 4: to happen. To your point, I wouldn't be shocked if 132 00:06:17,920 --> 00:06:20,760 Speaker 4: Milwaukee went home in one Game six. But I think 133 00:06:21,600 --> 00:06:24,160 Speaker 4: Boston demonstrated some really good discipline in their close out 134 00:06:24,160 --> 00:06:25,840 Speaker 4: game against Brooklyn, and I think they have a good 135 00:06:25,880 --> 00:06:27,880 Speaker 4: chance to do that in Game six as well. 136 00:06:28,320 --> 00:06:29,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, so I think. 137 00:06:29,240 --> 00:06:31,320 Speaker 2: By that that line of thinking, if you're in that camp, 138 00:06:31,360 --> 00:06:32,920 Speaker 2: I think the MIAs one and a half plus one 139 00:06:33,000 --> 00:06:35,240 Speaker 2: ten for them to basically win a six has a 140 00:06:35,240 --> 00:06:36,960 Speaker 2: lot of value there because you getting two to one 141 00:06:36,960 --> 00:06:40,320 Speaker 2: return on that. I understand kind of where you're at 142 00:06:40,320 --> 00:06:42,320 Speaker 2: from the perspective of, well, look, I think the game 143 00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:44,679 Speaker 2: by game Boston has an advantage, and I'm not willing 144 00:06:44,680 --> 00:06:46,039 Speaker 2: to go so far as I say home court is 145 00:06:46,080 --> 00:06:49,039 Speaker 2: so important as to say that like you have to 146 00:06:49,040 --> 00:06:51,080 Speaker 2: give them this game because we've seen both teams win 147 00:06:51,560 --> 00:06:53,960 Speaker 2: on the opponent's on floor. It's interesting you mentioned in 148 00:06:54,040 --> 00:06:56,960 Speaker 2: Boston's kind of helter skelter offense and their inconsistency. 149 00:06:57,160 --> 00:06:58,200 Speaker 1: You know where that really. 150 00:06:57,960 --> 00:07:00,240 Speaker 2: Showed up was in the bubble in two thousand in 151 00:07:00,320 --> 00:07:04,080 Speaker 2: twenty where that Heat series was maddening for somebody who 152 00:07:04,120 --> 00:07:08,520 Speaker 2: had a Celtic's Eastern Conference ticket because they would play 153 00:07:09,040 --> 00:07:12,520 Speaker 2: three great quarters and then that whatever the fourth quarter 154 00:07:12,560 --> 00:07:14,280 Speaker 2: it wasn't always the fourth quarter. Sometimes it was the third, 155 00:07:14,360 --> 00:07:16,320 Speaker 2: sometimes it was the second. They would have one quarter 156 00:07:16,400 --> 00:07:19,640 Speaker 2: a game where the Boston offense would just look like 157 00:07:19,680 --> 00:07:23,080 Speaker 2: they had just started playing together this game, that they 158 00:07:23,120 --> 00:07:25,000 Speaker 2: were and that they were a little bit drunk, and 159 00:07:25,040 --> 00:07:27,600 Speaker 2: that they were just like a little bit just completely 160 00:07:27,640 --> 00:07:30,040 Speaker 2: off of their game. And at the same time, Miami 161 00:07:30,080 --> 00:07:32,400 Speaker 2: would just pour it on with like an incredible shooting 162 00:07:32,400 --> 00:07:35,440 Speaker 2: performance and like those quarters I found were one up 163 00:07:35,440 --> 00:07:38,840 Speaker 2: really winning that series. And you mentioned how impressed you've 164 00:07:38,840 --> 00:07:42,680 Speaker 2: been with Boston's defense, and it is inarguably a superb 165 00:07:43,560 --> 00:07:46,000 Speaker 2: Both of these teams have just blown me away with 166 00:07:46,040 --> 00:07:47,160 Speaker 2: how good their defense is. 167 00:07:47,200 --> 00:07:48,400 Speaker 1: You mentioned the half court numbers. 168 00:07:48,840 --> 00:07:50,400 Speaker 2: You obviously are going to run more in half court 169 00:07:50,440 --> 00:07:52,040 Speaker 2: than you were in transition, Like you're just gonna have 170 00:07:52,080 --> 00:07:54,320 Speaker 2: a lot more possessions where you're walking it up and 171 00:07:54,520 --> 00:07:57,280 Speaker 2: in those possessions. I looked this up today on cleaning 172 00:07:57,280 --> 00:08:00,320 Speaker 2: the glass. Milwaukee's got an eighty four offensive rating in 173 00:08:00,400 --> 00:08:01,640 Speaker 2: half court offense in this year. 174 00:08:01,640 --> 00:08:02,360 Speaker 3: Isn't that insane? 175 00:08:03,200 --> 00:08:04,800 Speaker 1: That's that is? 176 00:08:05,960 --> 00:08:10,080 Speaker 2: That is throwing garbage in an alley where it's very dark, 177 00:08:10,240 --> 00:08:12,960 Speaker 2: like it is bad. How bad they're at their half 178 00:08:12,960 --> 00:08:15,560 Speaker 2: court offenses. From that perspective, I think that there's probably value. 179 00:08:16,000 --> 00:08:17,360 Speaker 2: I think the only thing that kind of gets me 180 00:08:17,520 --> 00:08:19,200 Speaker 2: to hesitate, there's two things to get me to hesitate 181 00:08:19,200 --> 00:08:22,119 Speaker 2: on betting Boston. Okay, now again, I got on plus 182 00:08:22,120 --> 00:08:24,320 Speaker 2: one and a half to start the series, and I 183 00:08:24,360 --> 00:08:27,080 Speaker 2: have Bucks futures. So as always I'm always like hedging. 184 00:08:27,280 --> 00:08:30,800 Speaker 2: I'm hedging the hedges of my hedges hedges. But one 185 00:08:30,800 --> 00:08:32,559 Speaker 2: of the reasons that I do think you've got to 186 00:08:32,600 --> 00:08:34,960 Speaker 2: be careful with Milwaukee at least or with Boston for 187 00:08:35,000 --> 00:08:39,040 Speaker 2: the series is Drew Holliday has been so bad. 188 00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:41,040 Speaker 1: Now you look. 189 00:08:40,920 --> 00:08:43,760 Speaker 2: Back last year game series by series like the Nets series, 190 00:08:43,800 --> 00:08:45,760 Speaker 2: and there are a lot of games where Drew just 191 00:08:45,800 --> 00:08:48,880 Speaker 2: threw up clunkers. He's just not an elite offensive player, 192 00:08:49,200 --> 00:08:52,720 Speaker 2: but he's been so bad relative to even low standards 193 00:08:53,080 --> 00:08:55,200 Speaker 2: that I go, there's probably gonna be a game in 194 00:08:55,240 --> 00:08:57,840 Speaker 2: there where he plays better. The other one is Middleton, 195 00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:01,840 Speaker 2: So there's been no word on this. After Game two, 196 00:09:02,520 --> 00:09:07,160 Speaker 2: Budenholzer told the media that mid would not play in 197 00:09:07,160 --> 00:09:09,560 Speaker 2: three or four, and he was asked, are you ruling 198 00:09:09,640 --> 00:09:12,080 Speaker 2: him out for the series, and he said no, So 199 00:09:13,360 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 2: if Middleton comes back at any point in this series, 200 00:09:16,520 --> 00:09:19,560 Speaker 2: like one of those superheroes arriving on the battlefield late. 201 00:09:20,679 --> 00:09:23,959 Speaker 2: I'm gonna immediately probably start thinking that the Bucks have 202 00:09:24,040 --> 00:09:26,920 Speaker 2: value to win the series. If mid were to return, 203 00:09:26,960 --> 00:09:29,400 Speaker 2: now there's been no indication he will, But if Middleton 204 00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:31,880 Speaker 2: would return, would that change your perception on the series 205 00:09:32,240 --> 00:09:33,240 Speaker 2: enough to go the other way? 206 00:09:33,720 --> 00:09:33,920 Speaker 3: You know? 207 00:09:34,640 --> 00:09:36,760 Speaker 4: See, the thing is is I already was wrong to start. 208 00:09:36,760 --> 00:09:38,679 Speaker 4: I thought Boston would win the series in five. My 209 00:09:38,800 --> 00:09:40,920 Speaker 4: prediction was that Boston would win games one and two 210 00:09:41,040 --> 00:09:43,920 Speaker 4: and then four and five, and that Milwaukee would steal 211 00:09:43,920 --> 00:09:47,000 Speaker 4: game three. And I've been thrown off, and honestly I 212 00:09:47,080 --> 00:09:48,880 Speaker 4: underrepresented how good Yiannis could be. 213 00:09:48,920 --> 00:09:49,320 Speaker 3: But you're right. 214 00:09:49,679 --> 00:09:51,680 Speaker 4: I just went back earlier today and looked at the 215 00:09:51,720 --> 00:09:55,800 Speaker 4: film and basically from eighty to seventy, which was the 216 00:09:55,960 --> 00:09:58,240 Speaker 4: advantage Milwaukee took with about a minute and a half 217 00:09:58,320 --> 00:10:01,959 Speaker 4: left in the third quarter. From that point forward, if 218 00:10:02,000 --> 00:10:04,880 Speaker 4: it wasn't Giannis, it was a bad shot. Like there 219 00:10:04,960 --> 00:10:07,040 Speaker 4: were there were no good shot attempts, even the Brook 220 00:10:07,040 --> 00:10:09,520 Speaker 4: Lopez posts up that they went to. He immediately traveled. 221 00:10:09,880 --> 00:10:12,280 Speaker 4: Drew Holliday kept like driving into the teeth of defense 222 00:10:12,320 --> 00:10:13,920 Speaker 4: and then picking up his dribble right around like the 223 00:10:14,000 --> 00:10:17,120 Speaker 4: charge circle, and he had one amazing play where he, 224 00:10:17,240 --> 00:10:21,800 Speaker 4: like Al Horford, doubled off of Brook and Drew Holliday 225 00:10:21,880 --> 00:10:24,480 Speaker 4: was completely dead to rights, but he knew in his head, hey, 226 00:10:24,760 --> 00:10:27,360 Speaker 4: if Al's right there, no one's guarding Brook, and he 227 00:10:27,440 --> 00:10:29,520 Speaker 4: just like threw it up over his head towards the 228 00:10:29,600 --> 00:10:31,840 Speaker 4: rim and Brook dunked it. But like, other than that, 229 00:10:32,200 --> 00:10:35,480 Speaker 4: almost everything you got from Drew was a really tough 230 00:10:35,960 --> 00:10:38,040 Speaker 4: pull up jump shot or something in the lane. 231 00:10:38,040 --> 00:10:39,319 Speaker 3: He didn't make any of them. 232 00:10:39,360 --> 00:10:41,800 Speaker 4: Whereas on the other end of the floor, Boston was 233 00:10:41,840 --> 00:10:44,720 Speaker 4: in there driving kick stuff, getting wide. It's like wide open, 234 00:10:44,760 --> 00:10:46,560 Speaker 4: look for Derek White in the left corner, wide open, 235 00:10:46,559 --> 00:10:49,200 Speaker 4: look for Marcus martin the left wing, wide open pick 236 00:10:49,200 --> 00:10:51,520 Speaker 4: and pop jump shot from Al Horford from fifteen, wide 237 00:10:51,559 --> 00:10:53,559 Speaker 4: open shot from Al Horford in the weekside corner. Like 238 00:10:53,600 --> 00:10:56,840 Speaker 4: their shot quality was just better. So if you're like, 239 00:10:56,880 --> 00:11:00,800 Speaker 4: there's no question that spelling the Jannis Possessions with more 240 00:11:00,880 --> 00:11:04,680 Speaker 4: Chris Middleton is a massive upgrade, my thing is like, 241 00:11:05,160 --> 00:11:07,199 Speaker 4: do you think it's too late at this point, because 242 00:11:07,280 --> 00:11:11,920 Speaker 4: like the way we've seen finesse shot creators perform against 243 00:11:11,920 --> 00:11:16,360 Speaker 4: this Boston defense. They struggle so like, I mean, look 244 00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:18,920 Speaker 4: at Katie, look at Kyrie, so like, I wonder if 245 00:11:19,720 --> 00:11:23,439 Speaker 4: in this specific instance of his impact would be limited. 246 00:11:23,600 --> 00:11:24,160 Speaker 3: I'm not lying. 247 00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:25,959 Speaker 4: If if Chris Middleton came back, it would cause me 248 00:11:26,000 --> 00:11:28,200 Speaker 4: to have to recalibrate a bunch of different things. I 249 00:11:28,360 --> 00:11:31,280 Speaker 4: just think that I'd probably still be on Boston at 250 00:11:31,280 --> 00:11:32,920 Speaker 4: that point. I just think that what they're doing right 251 00:11:32,960 --> 00:11:36,520 Speaker 4: now is a little more reliable, independable. Whereas it's like 252 00:11:36,960 --> 00:11:39,000 Speaker 4: it's like you're kind of betting. It's like, will Joannis 253 00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:41,840 Speaker 4: go absolutely nuclear in Game five? It's like it's possible. 254 00:11:42,880 --> 00:11:44,839 Speaker 4: I don't feel comfortable betting against it, But at the 255 00:11:44,920 --> 00:11:47,040 Speaker 4: end of the day, that's kind of their only chance, 256 00:11:47,120 --> 00:11:49,280 Speaker 4: like if he and by the way, credit to be honest, 257 00:11:49,320 --> 00:11:51,680 Speaker 4: like in that fourth quarter when they weren't getting anything, 258 00:11:52,120 --> 00:11:54,240 Speaker 4: the stuff he was getting out of the left block, 259 00:11:54,720 --> 00:11:58,200 Speaker 4: like controlling, not leaving his feet, keeping his dribble, making 260 00:11:58,520 --> 00:12:00,800 Speaker 4: beautiful passes and reads out of it. I've just been 261 00:12:00,840 --> 00:12:02,920 Speaker 4: so incredibly blown away by how good he is. He's 262 00:12:02,960 --> 00:12:05,120 Speaker 4: so much better than even I thought he could be 263 00:12:05,200 --> 00:12:06,280 Speaker 4: at this point in his career. 264 00:12:06,520 --> 00:12:08,400 Speaker 2: It's like going to the Heat sixers quickly. Again, we're 265 00:12:08,400 --> 00:12:10,719 Speaker 2: recording this on Tuesday. Heat Sixers about tip off here 266 00:12:10,840 --> 00:12:12,760 Speaker 2: in about an hour and a half, so we won't 267 00:12:12,800 --> 00:12:14,120 Speaker 2: go too deep on this. I do want to kind 268 00:12:14,160 --> 00:12:16,480 Speaker 2: of get your sense on is there. Do you have 269 00:12:16,520 --> 00:12:18,719 Speaker 2: like a strong take on the series? Do you think 270 00:12:18,720 --> 00:12:21,560 Speaker 2: one team is definitively better than the other, because obviously 271 00:12:21,559 --> 00:12:24,000 Speaker 2: this is going to go game six, so regardless of 272 00:12:24,000 --> 00:12:26,199 Speaker 2: the outcoming Game five, well, well we'll see those these 273 00:12:26,200 --> 00:12:29,000 Speaker 2: teams again, do you have a sense for how you 274 00:12:29,080 --> 00:12:32,720 Speaker 2: feel six ers heat is trending or the overall tone 275 00:12:32,760 --> 00:12:35,040 Speaker 2: of the series? Heat MIAs one forty six six ers 276 00:12:35,080 --> 00:12:37,920 Speaker 2: plus one twenty four at FanDuel the Heater, MIAs one 277 00:12:37,960 --> 00:12:39,520 Speaker 2: and a half on the wind spread at plus two 278 00:12:39,559 --> 00:12:40,800 Speaker 2: to forty five to win six. 279 00:12:41,360 --> 00:12:43,520 Speaker 4: I'm definitely less confident about it than I am about 280 00:12:43,600 --> 00:12:46,000 Speaker 4: but the Boston Milwaukee series, but I am on Philly. 281 00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:48,960 Speaker 4: My big concern coming into this series is Miami's offense 282 00:12:49,000 --> 00:12:50,800 Speaker 4: reminds me a lot of Denvers in the way that 283 00:12:50,840 --> 00:12:52,480 Speaker 4: they use bam at the top of the key with 284 00:12:52,520 --> 00:12:55,600 Speaker 4: a ton of dribble handoffs and ball screens, two guards 285 00:12:55,600 --> 00:12:57,520 Speaker 4: coming off of those to try to shoot off the dribble. 286 00:12:57,600 --> 00:12:59,320 Speaker 4: And it also reminds me of Denver in the way 287 00:12:59,320 --> 00:13:02,120 Speaker 4: that like it's kind of like no name is the 288 00:13:02,160 --> 00:13:04,920 Speaker 4: wrong word, but like they're not exactly superstar players that 289 00:13:04,960 --> 00:13:06,640 Speaker 4: are coming flying off with these screens. In a lot 290 00:13:06,640 --> 00:13:09,040 Speaker 4: of cases, it's Max Strus, it's Gabe Vincent, you know, 291 00:13:09,080 --> 00:13:11,199 Speaker 4: it's guys like that who are really good players. 292 00:13:11,200 --> 00:13:12,679 Speaker 3: You know, no one's sitting. 293 00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:14,679 Speaker 4: Here saying Will Barton can't play, or that, you know, 294 00:13:15,080 --> 00:13:17,280 Speaker 4: Monte Morris can't play. They're just not the same as 295 00:13:17,360 --> 00:13:20,040 Speaker 4: the upper level guards that are around the league, right, 296 00:13:20,400 --> 00:13:22,920 Speaker 4: And so the difference to me between the way Denver 297 00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:26,880 Speaker 4: plays in the way Miami plays is Jokic's threat from 298 00:13:26,920 --> 00:13:29,880 Speaker 4: the high post to turn and shoot or to turn 299 00:13:29,920 --> 00:13:32,720 Speaker 4: and score, in my opinion, is so much higher that 300 00:13:32,800 --> 00:13:35,079 Speaker 4: it forces you to defend it in a different way. 301 00:13:35,480 --> 00:13:38,520 Speaker 4: And I was concerned that Philly would be able to 302 00:13:38,559 --> 00:13:41,000 Speaker 4: get away with sitting in a drop coverage all series 303 00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:43,920 Speaker 4: long with Embiid. And for the record, in the two 304 00:13:44,000 --> 00:13:45,760 Speaker 4: games that they were down in Miami without em beat, 305 00:13:45,840 --> 00:13:49,080 Speaker 4: Miami scored extremely well. And in all the minutes that 306 00:13:49,120 --> 00:13:51,000 Speaker 4: Embiid's been on the floor, I think they're averaging right 307 00:13:51,040 --> 00:13:52,959 Speaker 4: around one hundred and two points per one hundre possessions, 308 00:13:52,960 --> 00:13:55,880 Speaker 4: which isn't great. So Miami's really struggling to score against 309 00:13:55,880 --> 00:13:58,839 Speaker 4: Philly with embat on the floor. As I predicted. Now, 310 00:13:58,920 --> 00:14:01,200 Speaker 4: what Miami fans will tell you is we're shooting terribly, 311 00:14:01,600 --> 00:14:03,880 Speaker 4: and they are. They're not making the shots coming off 312 00:14:03,880 --> 00:14:05,880 Speaker 4: of those dribble handoffs and off those ball screens and 313 00:14:05,920 --> 00:14:08,199 Speaker 4: things like that. So if you're on the Miami side, 314 00:14:08,240 --> 00:14:10,360 Speaker 4: you got to just trust that your shot quality will 315 00:14:10,400 --> 00:14:12,880 Speaker 4: pan out and you'll start to make shots. But to me, 316 00:14:12,960 --> 00:14:15,000 Speaker 4: I think that Philly's just gonna have an easier time 317 00:14:15,040 --> 00:14:17,280 Speaker 4: scoring in the half court as a series progresses. They 318 00:14:17,280 --> 00:14:19,680 Speaker 4: also have that ridiculous dynamic that when they get a stop, 319 00:14:19,760 --> 00:14:21,520 Speaker 4: Tyrese Maxi is just gonna run out and get a 320 00:14:21,560 --> 00:14:24,280 Speaker 4: layup and every once in a while on those just 321 00:14:24,320 --> 00:14:27,160 Speaker 4: easy offense there. So yeah, I'm on Philly, but I'm 322 00:14:27,200 --> 00:14:28,920 Speaker 4: nowhere near as confident there as I was on the 323 00:14:28,920 --> 00:14:29,680 Speaker 4: Boston series. 324 00:14:30,000 --> 00:14:31,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, what's been an interesting I think is when you 325 00:14:31,480 --> 00:14:33,960 Speaker 2: factor in the shot quality. I also looked this up 326 00:14:33,960 --> 00:14:36,600 Speaker 2: that the heat actually shot remarkably well in the paint. 327 00:14:37,040 --> 00:14:39,920 Speaker 2: They shot something like seventy percent on of really interesting, 328 00:14:40,160 --> 00:14:43,400 Speaker 2: no change at all in terms of volume within beat 329 00:14:43,400 --> 00:14:45,880 Speaker 2: in there either. They just really when you look a 330 00:14:45,920 --> 00:14:49,680 Speaker 2: game four, they just missed open threes. They were something 331 00:14:49,760 --> 00:14:51,600 Speaker 2: like twenty per they were you know, they were ten 332 00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:55,320 Speaker 2: to forty in games three and four on lightly contested 333 00:14:55,480 --> 00:14:57,160 Speaker 2: or uncontested three point looks. 334 00:14:57,840 --> 00:15:01,359 Speaker 1: Wow, like yeah it was. It was a crazy differential. 335 00:15:01,440 --> 00:15:03,000 Speaker 2: So a lot of this for me is about how 336 00:15:03,040 --> 00:15:07,120 Speaker 2: you feel about the Sixers defense when they've looked bad. 337 00:15:07,640 --> 00:15:11,360 Speaker 2: Their defense is what has looked bad. That's really been 338 00:15:11,400 --> 00:15:12,920 Speaker 2: the weak point is that there are a bunch of 339 00:15:12,960 --> 00:15:15,200 Speaker 2: gaps in this. They've done a good job. I've been 340 00:15:15,200 --> 00:15:17,280 Speaker 2: really impressed with Joel that Joel's playing a lot more 341 00:15:17,320 --> 00:15:19,120 Speaker 2: at like the level of the screen and putting a 342 00:15:19,160 --> 00:15:19,880 Speaker 2: lot more pressure. 343 00:15:19,920 --> 00:15:20,560 Speaker 1: That's helpful. 344 00:15:20,720 --> 00:15:22,480 Speaker 2: You don't want Jim be Butler getting downhill, so they've 345 00:15:22,480 --> 00:15:23,960 Speaker 2: put a little bit more pressure up top and all 346 00:15:24,000 --> 00:15:25,800 Speaker 2: these types of things. But when I look at this, 347 00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:28,080 Speaker 2: I have a lot of confidence in the heat defense. 348 00:15:28,240 --> 00:15:30,160 Speaker 2: You know, you talked about how like you've learned how 349 00:15:30,160 --> 00:15:33,320 Speaker 2: good Giannis is at playmaking. I had always kind of 350 00:15:33,360 --> 00:15:35,720 Speaker 2: been very not met just like, oh yeah, I know 351 00:15:35,800 --> 00:15:38,000 Speaker 2: BAM's really good. That was about the extent of it, 352 00:15:38,000 --> 00:15:39,560 Speaker 2: and then like this season, I really started to dig 353 00:15:39,600 --> 00:15:42,480 Speaker 2: into it and now I'm like, BAM's amazing. Like Bammed 354 00:15:42,560 --> 00:15:44,760 Speaker 2: is like probably the best switching center in the NBA. 355 00:15:45,320 --> 00:15:48,920 Speaker 2: He's absolutely incredible in terms of his instinct and playmaking. 356 00:15:49,120 --> 00:15:50,960 Speaker 2: He got over what was bothering him last year with 357 00:15:51,000 --> 00:15:53,840 Speaker 2: how indecisive he was shooting in the in the Milwaukee Series, 358 00:15:54,120 --> 00:15:55,640 Speaker 2: and that carried through the Olympics, where. 359 00:15:55,480 --> 00:15:56,360 Speaker 1: I thought he looked horrible. 360 00:15:56,480 --> 00:15:57,920 Speaker 2: Like I was ready to come in this into this 361 00:15:58,000 --> 00:16:00,760 Speaker 2: year and be like, look we over Bam on a bio. 362 00:16:00,840 --> 00:16:03,160 Speaker 2: Is he really like a franchise cornerstone? And then I 363 00:16:03,160 --> 00:16:04,680 Speaker 2: saw what he did. It wasn't just that he got 364 00:16:04,680 --> 00:16:06,400 Speaker 2: the one seed. It was like I was watching him 365 00:16:06,440 --> 00:16:09,400 Speaker 2: more and really impressed with it, and I think they're 366 00:16:09,640 --> 00:16:12,520 Speaker 2: you know, the overall numbers for Joel versus Bam in 367 00:16:12,560 --> 00:16:15,560 Speaker 2: his career have actually been pretty poor, and Joel didn't 368 00:16:15,560 --> 00:16:17,240 Speaker 2: have a monster game in either of those games. What 369 00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:20,400 Speaker 2: really got him through was Harden and then especially it 370 00:16:20,480 --> 00:16:23,280 Speaker 2: was Danny Green who shot the absolute leather off of 371 00:16:23,320 --> 00:16:26,320 Speaker 2: the ball, like great spot up shots. But the problem is, 372 00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:29,520 Speaker 2: like this is I love Danny like Danny's is one 373 00:16:29,560 --> 00:16:32,239 Speaker 2: of my top five favorite interviews during the finalshos. 374 00:16:33,040 --> 00:16:33,360 Speaker 3: Yeah. 375 00:16:33,400 --> 00:16:37,360 Speaker 2: When I was covering those Spurs Heat finals, Danny was 376 00:16:37,400 --> 00:16:39,800 Speaker 2: like my go to. I would do whatever necessary to 377 00:16:39,840 --> 00:16:41,720 Speaker 2: try and get in front of Danny for an interview 378 00:16:41,920 --> 00:16:44,320 Speaker 2: in the locker room or at the podiums, because Danny 379 00:16:44,360 --> 00:16:46,160 Speaker 2: was actually insightful and thoughtful, and he was the only 380 00:16:46,160 --> 00:16:48,520 Speaker 2: guy that would break like the Spurs code of never 381 00:16:48,600 --> 00:16:49,200 Speaker 2: say anything. 382 00:16:49,240 --> 00:16:53,680 Speaker 1: He would actually talk a little bit, hopefully. But Danny's 383 00:16:53,680 --> 00:16:54,600 Speaker 1: also inconsistent. 384 00:16:54,680 --> 00:16:57,640 Speaker 2: He hates the icy Hot nickname because it's really apt 385 00:16:57,680 --> 00:16:59,920 Speaker 2: for him. So I think that's kind of my concern. 386 00:17:00,000 --> 00:17:02,520 Speaker 2: I like to Miami to start this series. I'm still 387 00:17:02,920 --> 00:17:04,920 Speaker 2: very much on them again, We'll see how this game 388 00:17:04,960 --> 00:17:06,920 Speaker 2: goes tonight, because if I'm wrong and the Heat and 389 00:17:06,960 --> 00:17:08,760 Speaker 2: the Sixers wind up winning tonight, I'm going to be 390 00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:10,920 Speaker 2: very shook by the time that you hear this podcast. 391 00:17:11,480 --> 00:17:13,880 Speaker 1: Let's love at Eastern Conference futures real quick, since we're 392 00:17:13,880 --> 00:17:14,359 Speaker 1: on the East. 393 00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:17,879 Speaker 2: In this regard, the Celtics are plus one thirty five 394 00:17:18,080 --> 00:17:21,120 Speaker 2: the Heat plus two sixty Bucks plus three thirty six 395 00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:24,439 Speaker 2: Ers plus five fifty over it at FanDuel, I'm going 396 00:17:24,560 --> 00:17:28,000 Speaker 2: to imagine that given how high you are on Boston, 397 00:17:28,560 --> 00:17:30,359 Speaker 2: that you have to think that this should probably be 398 00:17:30,440 --> 00:17:32,240 Speaker 2: closer to a minus number, and that you think there's 399 00:17:32,240 --> 00:17:34,240 Speaker 2: still value on Boston plus one thirty five. 400 00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:36,560 Speaker 3: Right, Yeah, doesn't. 401 00:17:36,640 --> 00:17:38,439 Speaker 4: I mean, I know you're higher on the heat than 402 00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:41,160 Speaker 4: I am, but like, doesn't it feel like Boston Milwaukee 403 00:17:41,200 --> 00:17:42,760 Speaker 4: are the two best teams in the conference. That's the 404 00:17:42,800 --> 00:17:44,520 Speaker 4: kind of the way it feels to me, so like, 405 00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:47,520 Speaker 4: and in terms of a value, you bet, I almost 406 00:17:47,560 --> 00:17:50,480 Speaker 4: like that Milwaukee number more than the Boston number. But 407 00:17:50,560 --> 00:17:52,920 Speaker 4: at the same time, like it's just I'm very set 408 00:17:52,920 --> 00:17:54,680 Speaker 4: in my ways, and I get on the track about something, 409 00:17:54,720 --> 00:17:56,640 Speaker 4: it's hard to get me off that track. And like, man, 410 00:17:56,720 --> 00:17:59,040 Speaker 4: like I'm just I'm a believer in this Boston team, 411 00:17:59,080 --> 00:18:01,320 Speaker 4: and I think what they do is very uniquely capable 412 00:18:01,320 --> 00:18:05,080 Speaker 4: of succeeding in different playoff matchups. It's been very interesting 413 00:18:05,080 --> 00:18:08,199 Speaker 4: to see the difference in the matchups between this series 414 00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:09,879 Speaker 4: and the Brooklyn series, and the way they've had to 415 00:18:09,920 --> 00:18:14,720 Speaker 4: guard Philly is actually an interesting number there because BMBIID 416 00:18:14,720 --> 00:18:17,000 Speaker 4: matchup is such a weird wild card that you don't 417 00:18:17,040 --> 00:18:20,560 Speaker 4: know how that would impact either of Milwaukee or Boston. 418 00:18:20,680 --> 00:18:23,960 Speaker 4: So like that kind of number to basically say they're 419 00:18:24,000 --> 00:18:27,120 Speaker 4: two to two against Miami, two and zero with Joel Embiid, 420 00:18:27,160 --> 00:18:28,280 Speaker 4: all they have to do is get out of that 421 00:18:28,400 --> 00:18:31,040 Speaker 4: series and then beat Boston or Milwaukee. That's seems like 422 00:18:31,080 --> 00:18:35,399 Speaker 4: a decent opportunity there. But I definitely think that they're 423 00:18:35,400 --> 00:18:38,920 Speaker 4: a solid tier below Boston and Milwaukee, so I guess I, 424 00:18:38,960 --> 00:18:40,960 Speaker 4: you know, I would probably end up landing on Boston, 425 00:18:41,000 --> 00:18:42,920 Speaker 4: but there are some decent value opportunities there. 426 00:18:43,520 --> 00:18:46,120 Speaker 2: I've said during the Celtics Bucks series that my best 427 00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:49,359 Speaker 2: play was usually just bet whoever lost the last game 428 00:18:49,440 --> 00:18:50,200 Speaker 2: to win the title. 429 00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:52,480 Speaker 1: But that's like the best way to go about it. 430 00:18:52,600 --> 00:18:55,879 Speaker 2: It's like whoever loses their number is gonna drop, and 431 00:18:55,920 --> 00:18:59,040 Speaker 2: they're still better than all these other teams. So you know, 432 00:18:59,080 --> 00:19:03,200 Speaker 2: it's weird because the Warriors I've been high on since preseason. 433 00:19:03,440 --> 00:19:07,240 Speaker 2: I have a Warriors ticket uh from preseason, extremely long number. 434 00:19:07,280 --> 00:19:09,480 Speaker 2: I've bet them consistently. Like I've said, I like them 435 00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:12,840 Speaker 2: in the Suns matchup, I like the Celtics and buxs. 436 00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:15,080 Speaker 2: Whoever comes out of that series, we assume that they're 437 00:19:15,080 --> 00:19:16,800 Speaker 2: going to get past the other two teams, and I 438 00:19:16,800 --> 00:19:18,600 Speaker 2: think they will like I like Miami a lot, but 439 00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:19,840 Speaker 2: I don't think they can get I don think they 440 00:19:19,840 --> 00:19:23,040 Speaker 2: have the firepower to get past these two. It'll be interesting, 441 00:19:23,119 --> 00:19:25,720 Speaker 2: but I do think either the winner of Celtics Bucks 442 00:19:25,720 --> 00:19:27,000 Speaker 2: I think is going to be in the finals if 443 00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:29,560 Speaker 2: they have anything left. From how exhausting the series is. 444 00:19:30,760 --> 00:19:33,119 Speaker 4: Celtics Bucks feels like an interesting series to pound the 445 00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:35,800 Speaker 4: or excuse me, Celtics Heat seems like an interesting series 446 00:19:35,840 --> 00:19:37,680 Speaker 4: to pound the under on every game. I could see 447 00:19:37,680 --> 00:19:40,880 Speaker 4: both teams going through long stretches of just having no 448 00:19:40,920 --> 00:19:41,680 Speaker 4: idea how to score. 449 00:19:42,800 --> 00:19:44,920 Speaker 2: That's a switch all versus a switch all just that 450 00:19:45,040 --> 00:19:46,640 Speaker 2: does constant switches. 451 00:19:46,320 --> 00:19:47,520 Speaker 1: Grind, bucked up. 452 00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:49,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's going to be gross, that's the That's the 453 00:19:50,119 --> 00:19:52,600 Speaker 2: certainly looks like it's going to be right now, depending 454 00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:55,119 Speaker 2: on on your perspective. But yeah, So, like I've been 455 00:19:55,119 --> 00:19:57,399 Speaker 2: saying that Celtics Bucks, you should just be betting them to 456 00:19:57,400 --> 00:19:59,280 Speaker 2: win the title outright. If you do want bet plays 457 00:19:59,280 --> 00:20:01,119 Speaker 2: a bet on the East, I think Bucks probably do 458 00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:04,440 Speaker 2: have the best value. The only thing I would probably 459 00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:07,280 Speaker 2: say is I don't think that if the Heat were 460 00:20:07,320 --> 00:20:11,880 Speaker 2: to win, they would be a two sixty versus either 461 00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:13,560 Speaker 2: of those teams. I think it's probably more closer to 462 00:20:13,600 --> 00:20:15,800 Speaker 2: two hundred. So it's like, if you want to have 463 00:20:15,800 --> 00:20:18,040 Speaker 2: a position to hedge against with a big dog, you 464 00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:20,679 Speaker 2: can take the heat, but they'll have home court, so 465 00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:22,560 Speaker 2: it's gonna be tough to make them a short favorite. 466 00:20:22,560 --> 00:20:24,840 Speaker 2: If you think the heater coming out of that matchup, 467 00:20:25,080 --> 00:20:27,360 Speaker 2: you should be betting them and Sixer same kind of deal, right, 468 00:20:27,480 --> 00:20:29,560 Speaker 2: The sixer is not gonna be plus five fifty if 469 00:20:29,560 --> 00:20:32,359 Speaker 2: they're matched up with Boston. I won't be betting that though, 470 00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:35,320 Speaker 2: because there's no way. I think, like I have seen 471 00:20:35,359 --> 00:20:37,159 Speaker 2: Al Horford and what he does to Joell and Be 472 00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:39,640 Speaker 2: too many times. But it's going to have to prove 473 00:20:39,640 --> 00:20:41,960 Speaker 2: it to me in order to get me to bet 474 00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:42,320 Speaker 2: that way. 475 00:20:42,920 --> 00:20:45,480 Speaker 3: And how good is that dude? Right now? Holy cow? 476 00:20:46,600 --> 00:20:49,040 Speaker 2: Playoff career high at that age, just playoff al Man 477 00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:51,919 Speaker 2: winner his entire career, just has won everywhere he's been 478 00:20:51,960 --> 00:20:54,920 Speaker 2: since Florida now on Sleeper. 479 00:20:55,359 --> 00:20:56,160 Speaker 1: Sleeper is the. 480 00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:59,680 Speaker 2: Fastest growing fantasy platform today with millions of players. You 481 00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:01,520 Speaker 2: probably if we already have a fantacy league on there. 482 00:21:01,600 --> 00:21:03,960 Speaker 2: I use it for mine. 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The 493 00:21:27,600 --> 00:21:30,359 Speaker 2: main reason I'm excited about over under on Sleeper is 494 00:21:30,359 --> 00:21:32,359 Speaker 2: that the only app where I can join my buddy's 495 00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:35,720 Speaker 2: contest and play together. It's got a built in group 496 00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:37,879 Speaker 2: chat where I can see and copy my friends picks 497 00:21:37,880 --> 00:21:38,800 Speaker 2: with the tap of a button. 498 00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:41,080 Speaker 1: It's insanely fun to write it out together. 499 00:21:41,359 --> 00:21:43,879 Speaker 2: So stop what you're doing and download Sleeper now to 500 00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:46,880 Speaker 2: play their new over undergame. Have fun with your friends, 501 00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:50,240 Speaker 2: make some money. Make sure to use promo code buckets 502 00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:53,800 Speaker 2: and Sleeper will match your deposit up to one hundred dollars. Again, 503 00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:57,400 Speaker 2: download Sleeper and use promo code buckets when you deposit. 504 00:21:57,800 --> 00:22:02,080 Speaker 2: Term and conditions apply. See Sleeper's turn use for details. Okay, 505 00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:04,399 Speaker 2: back to the show. Let's talk about the West a 506 00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:06,719 Speaker 2: little bit quicker because again, one series plays to night. 507 00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:08,200 Speaker 2: In the other series, I think is pretty much a 508 00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:11,960 Speaker 2: wrap here. We got Warriors Grizzlies. Grizzlies plus fifteen hundred 509 00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:14,240 Speaker 2: if you're interested in that number, if you want to 510 00:22:14,280 --> 00:22:16,399 Speaker 2: chase a long shot, plus one and a half just 511 00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:19,040 Speaker 2: to get into seven games is plus six eighty for 512 00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:21,840 Speaker 2: the Memphis Grizzlies. It was announced before we did this 513 00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:24,040 Speaker 2: podcast that John Morant suffered a Boone bruise. They finally 514 00:22:24,080 --> 00:22:26,919 Speaker 2: did the MRI release the MRI results. He's doubtful for 515 00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:31,040 Speaker 2: the postseason, not for Game five for the postseason. So 516 00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:32,520 Speaker 2: I think you go ahead and say he's gonna miss 517 00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:36,680 Speaker 2: Game five as such. Look is, do you think there's 518 00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:40,080 Speaker 2: any chance that Memphis can rally at home and sneak 519 00:22:40,119 --> 00:22:42,440 Speaker 2: by him to force him back to Oracle for six? 520 00:22:43,240 --> 00:22:43,720 Speaker 3: Actually do? 521 00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:47,440 Speaker 4: I give him almost a zero percent chance to win 522 00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:48,680 Speaker 4: Game six in Golden State. 523 00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:50,399 Speaker 3: But I have I have a like. 524 00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:53,760 Speaker 4: The thing is is Memphis is not a better team 525 00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:56,200 Speaker 4: without Job, but they are a different team without Job. 526 00:22:56,400 --> 00:22:58,679 Speaker 4: They have a different kind of physical identity. 527 00:22:58,920 --> 00:22:59,240 Speaker 3: The jaw. 528 00:22:59,280 --> 00:23:01,800 Speaker 4: Obviously we know not great dribble contained, not a great 529 00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:03,879 Speaker 4: defensive player, at this point in his career, although I 530 00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:06,200 Speaker 4: do think he will be one day A huge believer 531 00:23:06,240 --> 00:23:10,080 Speaker 4: in that guy in the long run. But without job, 532 00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:12,480 Speaker 4: they're a little more methodical. Tys Jones is more traditional 533 00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:15,840 Speaker 4: point guard, is a little bit more procedural and old 534 00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:17,920 Speaker 4: fashioned in the way that he plays. They don't have 535 00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:19,960 Speaker 4: the shot creation to go down to Golden State and 536 00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:22,000 Speaker 4: win a Game six. But I kind of think of 537 00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:24,560 Speaker 4: Game five as like a buzzsaw, Like you're running into 538 00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:28,120 Speaker 4: a desperate team back against the wall, playing their biggest, 539 00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:30,359 Speaker 4: most athletic players. Thought it was super interesting that they 540 00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:34,520 Speaker 4: brought Steven Adams of out of being basically dmped every 541 00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:37,800 Speaker 4: night to getting fifteen rebounds and ten points or whatever 542 00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:40,199 Speaker 4: you had last night. So like I would say that 543 00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:42,920 Speaker 4: Game five, I think no. I think Memphis right now 544 00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:44,840 Speaker 4: is plus two and a half in that game. To me, 545 00:23:44,920 --> 00:23:49,080 Speaker 4: that's an interesting opportunity to a betting value, to bet 546 00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:52,040 Speaker 4: a desperate team on their home floor. The types of 547 00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:54,760 Speaker 4: guys they'll be playing, all their bigger athletes, leaning into 548 00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:57,720 Speaker 4: physicality and getting out in transition. That's the kind of 549 00:23:57,800 --> 00:24:00,239 Speaker 4: thing that thrives in front of a home crowd. I 550 00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:02,440 Speaker 4: see that as an opportunity for Memphis to steal a 551 00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:04,720 Speaker 4: game before the series ends, as ends in six, so 552 00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:07,080 Speaker 4: that I will be betting on Memphis tomorrow. 553 00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:09,760 Speaker 2: I have zero takes on mav Soun's I am staying 554 00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:11,679 Speaker 2: away from this one because I have a lot of 555 00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:14,840 Speaker 2: faith in Phoenix and their matchup advantages throughout the series, 556 00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:17,320 Speaker 2: and then they just played bizarre in three and four. 557 00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:20,600 Speaker 2: I thought their strategy was very strange. They showed the 558 00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:23,440 Speaker 2: ability to disrupt Luca in the second half of Game four. 559 00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:25,520 Speaker 1: He was five or fifteen from the field. 560 00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:28,000 Speaker 2: I went back and watched, and they were really messing 561 00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:29,920 Speaker 2: with him in terms of They made a lot of 562 00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:32,600 Speaker 2: mistakes in the first half trying to basically run drop 563 00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:35,120 Speaker 2: with a help defender over and they mixed up their 564 00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:38,240 Speaker 2: coverages and had breakdowns and giving up corner threes. And 565 00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:40,359 Speaker 2: when I saw that, I was like, huh, okay, I 566 00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:41,520 Speaker 2: don't know if you can do that. But then the 567 00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:43,199 Speaker 2: second half I was like, oh, they actually went in 568 00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:45,800 Speaker 2: and got it right and they started to hit those mechanisms. 569 00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:48,320 Speaker 2: I just don't necessarily know why Phoenix went that route 570 00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:51,040 Speaker 2: when it's like, look, Luca had thirty five and whatever 571 00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:53,080 Speaker 2: in game he was averaging thirty three points a game 572 00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:55,440 Speaker 2: in the first two games of the series, and they 573 00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:56,080 Speaker 2: were zero to two. 574 00:24:56,680 --> 00:24:59,160 Speaker 1: Like, I don't know why not close? Yeah, not close? 575 00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:00,320 Speaker 2: Like I don't know why the Suns I felt the 576 00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:03,000 Speaker 2: need to change up the strategy again. This game will 577 00:25:03,000 --> 00:25:06,200 Speaker 2: tip later tonight. But do you have a lean towards Mavericks, 578 00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:08,800 Speaker 2: Sun's sons or minus two thirty five Mavericks plus one 579 00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:09,840 Speaker 2: ninety to win the series? 580 00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:12,560 Speaker 4: I lean Phoenix two. I do think I agree with you. 581 00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:15,600 Speaker 4: I thought it was ironically them overplaying the Stars and 582 00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:18,760 Speaker 4: getting open three point shots to everyone else that killed them. 583 00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:22,040 Speaker 4: Both Chris Paul games were weird seven turnovers in game 584 00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:25,280 Speaker 4: three and then super bizarre decision making defensively to get 585 00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:27,720 Speaker 4: into foul trouble in game four, very uncharacteristic for a 586 00:25:27,760 --> 00:25:31,720 Speaker 4: player like him. My one reservation with the Lucas stuff 587 00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:36,440 Speaker 4: is so Carson, one of the producers on my show, Guy, 588 00:25:36,760 --> 00:25:39,520 Speaker 4: comes on the air a lot. He did some research 589 00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:42,359 Speaker 4: and he had determined that before this series, Luca was 590 00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:46,679 Speaker 4: shooting forty six percent in his career in the playoffs 591 00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:50,440 Speaker 4: on step back threes, which is an absolutely insane number. 592 00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:54,000 Speaker 4: And obviously, now to your point, Phoenix defended him extremely well, 593 00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:56,240 Speaker 4: so it's not like they're extremely high quality threes, but 594 00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:58,360 Speaker 4: he was one for ten in game four on threes. 595 00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:02,160 Speaker 4: So the one like like shot in the dark, puncher's chance, 596 00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:04,560 Speaker 4: whatever you want to call it for Dallas is Luca 597 00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:08,720 Speaker 4: just gets hot in Phoenix and goes for forty something 598 00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:11,280 Speaker 4: and it's enough to pull them up. Also, Jalen Brunson 599 00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:14,040 Speaker 4: gave you nothing in those first two games. Also, and 600 00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:17,240 Speaker 4: I'm interested to hear your opinion about this. Dallas's defense 601 00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:19,960 Speaker 4: was so bad in the first two games, like so 602 00:26:20,240 --> 00:26:23,119 Speaker 4: bad that I don't even know how to translate that 603 00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:25,520 Speaker 4: to the game five. Because, don't get me wrong, the 604 00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:28,920 Speaker 4: home crowd helps to get home and to get reinvigorated 605 00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:30,920 Speaker 4: and to sit in a stance and to contain guys 606 00:26:30,920 --> 00:26:32,800 Speaker 4: better than you do on the road. But they were 607 00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:36,159 Speaker 4: so much better in games three and four that it 608 00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:38,000 Speaker 4: almost rang A is like a team that didn't take 609 00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:40,359 Speaker 4: their opponents seriously enough in the first two games. So 610 00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:42,800 Speaker 4: I'm curous. The biggest thing I'm gonna be looking at 611 00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:45,639 Speaker 4: tonight is how well Dallas guards, and that's going to 612 00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:47,600 Speaker 4: be a huge indicator early on as to whether or 613 00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:48,399 Speaker 4: not they have a chance. 614 00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:50,919 Speaker 2: Yeah, and I get to games three and four, I 615 00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:53,280 Speaker 2: just look at and go Chris had an uncharacteristic turnover 616 00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:55,240 Speaker 2: game in game three and he got foul trouble. 617 00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:55,560 Speaker 1: In game four. 618 00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:58,960 Speaker 2: And as good as Devin is versus a switching defense, 619 00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:01,480 Speaker 2: if you don't have secondary playmaker, you have to worry 620 00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:04,920 Speaker 2: about that. That's where the switch works, right, That's why 621 00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:08,280 Speaker 2: it's so popular. Versus the heliocentric teams like the Rockets 622 00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:11,399 Speaker 2: with Harden or honestly versus this team is there's been 623 00:27:11,400 --> 00:27:13,560 Speaker 2: a lot of success versus it. So for me, I 624 00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:15,120 Speaker 2: just kind of look at and I go, I they're 625 00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:16,920 Speaker 2: gonna have to show me they can disrupt Chris Paul 626 00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:20,000 Speaker 2: consistently for me to be like, oh yeah, they've really 627 00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:23,000 Speaker 2: solved their defensive issues. Tonight will be huge. So when 628 00:27:23,040 --> 00:27:26,160 Speaker 2: you listen to this, you'll be able to react accordingly. Okay, 629 00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:29,040 Speaker 2: the big battle. If we're assuming that we think Suns 630 00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:31,080 Speaker 2: and Warriors are going to be in the Western Conference, 631 00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:34,320 Speaker 2: Warriors are minus one fifty to win the West right now, 632 00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:35,840 Speaker 2: which is a product of the Suns being in a 633 00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:38,679 Speaker 2: two to two series and the Warriors being in a 634 00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:40,440 Speaker 2: three to one, So essentially like this number. 635 00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:42,200 Speaker 1: This is not the time to bet the Warriors. 636 00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:44,919 Speaker 2: Like objectively, if you're betting the Warriors, do not do 637 00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:45,480 Speaker 2: it now. 638 00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:46,960 Speaker 1: You can get a better number later. 639 00:27:47,600 --> 00:27:50,280 Speaker 2: Suns plus one sixty five pretty good number for the 640 00:27:50,520 --> 00:27:53,320 Speaker 2: for the Suns, MAVs plus eight hundred and the Grizzlies 641 00:27:53,320 --> 00:27:56,920 Speaker 2: plus five thousand, fifty to one on the old grizz 642 00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:00,800 Speaker 2: Let's just go ahead and let me down to Warrior Suns. 643 00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:02,240 Speaker 2: Who do you think has. 644 00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:02,840 Speaker 1: The edge there? 645 00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:05,080 Speaker 2: We could agree that the Suns have the value now, 646 00:28:05,320 --> 00:28:06,879 Speaker 2: but when that series comes about, if you want to 647 00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:08,800 Speaker 2: wait till it, do you have a lean on which 648 00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:10,040 Speaker 2: way you think that series goes. 649 00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:13,840 Speaker 4: I'm leaning towards Phoenix. I mean, so to me, I 650 00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:17,679 Speaker 4: have I have Boston, Phoenix, and Golden State all on 651 00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:20,320 Speaker 4: a tier by themselves at the top, but I and 652 00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:23,840 Speaker 4: in that order, but separated by the tiniest of margins. 653 00:28:23,840 --> 00:28:25,520 Speaker 4: So when I say I think I have Phoenix over 654 00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:28,840 Speaker 4: Golden State, I think it's close. But like, my biggest 655 00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:32,520 Speaker 4: concern with Golden State is what happened last night. Like 656 00:28:33,080 --> 00:28:36,639 Speaker 4: they they seem to lose their offensive identity a little 657 00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:39,560 Speaker 4: bit too from time to time, and some of it 658 00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:43,160 Speaker 4: is like, like, Steph's been incredible in this playoff run, 659 00:28:43,320 --> 00:28:46,840 Speaker 4: but he's not you know, twenty fifteen to twenty seventeen, 660 00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:50,000 Speaker 4: step Like, he's not. His dribble creation is not the 661 00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:53,320 Speaker 4: same that it was. He's almost winning these games off 662 00:28:53,360 --> 00:28:56,800 Speaker 4: of like savvy and just incredibly difficult, like just using 663 00:28:56,840 --> 00:28:57,720 Speaker 4: his brain a lot more. 664 00:28:57,760 --> 00:28:59,200 Speaker 3: At this point, they go through these. 665 00:28:59,120 --> 00:29:03,440 Speaker 4: Extended stretches, particularly Jordan Pool and Clay get a little 666 00:29:03,440 --> 00:29:06,600 Speaker 4: out of whack with their shots selection, and it's almost 667 00:29:06,640 --> 00:29:08,840 Speaker 4: like they're trying to recreate that magic of the twenty 668 00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:11,880 Speaker 4: fifteen twenty sixteen Warriors, where it's just like up and 669 00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:14,280 Speaker 4: down the floor, crazy shots, but they all just seem 670 00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:16,200 Speaker 4: to go in, but they're just sometimes they just don't 671 00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:19,000 Speaker 4: go in. And so I think that And by the way, 672 00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:21,360 Speaker 4: Phoenix per cleaning the glass has the best half court 673 00:29:21,400 --> 00:29:24,160 Speaker 4: offense so far through the playoffs, and they did. They 674 00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:27,680 Speaker 4: have played two pretty good defenses. Dallas obviously mailed in 675 00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:29,760 Speaker 4: the first two games of their series. But if you 676 00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:32,120 Speaker 4: were ranking the sixteen playoff teams, I don't think the 677 00:29:32,120 --> 00:29:34,400 Speaker 4: Pelicans would have been fifteenth. You might have put him 678 00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:36,720 Speaker 4: ahead of Utah, you might have put him ahead of 679 00:29:36,800 --> 00:29:38,160 Speaker 4: some of some of these other teams out there and 680 00:29:38,200 --> 00:29:40,160 Speaker 4: maybe even in Chicago, like the Pelicans were a really 681 00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:42,720 Speaker 4: good team, and Phoenix has done an extremely good job 682 00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:44,480 Speaker 4: of executing in the half court. I feel like that's 683 00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:46,800 Speaker 4: a little bit more reliable. I'm curious to hear your 684 00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:48,800 Speaker 4: thoughts on why are you on Golden State over Phoenix. 685 00:29:49,160 --> 00:29:51,360 Speaker 2: So we saw the match up this season. We saw 686 00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:55,320 Speaker 2: it three times with them relatively full strength either like 687 00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:57,840 Speaker 2: one guy was Booker was gone. In the rematch on 688 00:29:57,880 --> 00:30:00,680 Speaker 2: Friday Night, it was a close game Poenix, where Phoenix 689 00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:02,920 Speaker 2: got the win because Mikail Bridges shut down Staph. 690 00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:04,720 Speaker 1: The Warriors came back and got a big win. 691 00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:07,600 Speaker 2: Like, we saw enough of it to where I looked 692 00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:09,440 Speaker 2: at those matchups and I go, I think Golden State 693 00:30:09,480 --> 00:30:11,200 Speaker 2: has the advantage here. In particular, A lot of this 694 00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:15,520 Speaker 2: is Phoenix last year had the Dario Saris five out 695 00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:19,720 Speaker 2: small ball switch all to go to versus Dallas. Even 696 00:30:19,800 --> 00:30:22,560 Speaker 2: they're still running drop versus Luca. That's why Luca went 697 00:30:22,560 --> 00:30:24,920 Speaker 2: in super nova in games one and two. Is they 698 00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:27,400 Speaker 2: felt like, look, we're not worried about any these other playmakers. 699 00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:29,600 Speaker 2: We're not worried about any these other guys so we're 700 00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:31,320 Speaker 2: just gonna make Lucas shoot all the time. And it worked, 701 00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:33,440 Speaker 2: and then again, like we talked about, they got away 702 00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:36,160 Speaker 2: from it. I think they haven't had to face a 703 00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:39,800 Speaker 2: switch all team, which that's what the Warriors run. 704 00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:41,080 Speaker 1: Primarily, they'll play. 705 00:30:40,920 --> 00:30:42,920 Speaker 2: A little bit of looney, they'll play a little bit 706 00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:45,560 Speaker 2: of drop every now and again. They'll probably do it 707 00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:48,640 Speaker 2: with the bench units, but they are absolutely going to 708 00:30:48,680 --> 00:30:50,840 Speaker 2: space out eight and make him work in space, and 709 00:30:50,840 --> 00:30:53,360 Speaker 2: then they're going to do all this complicated stuff off ball. 710 00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:55,960 Speaker 2: Klay Thompson being back, I think is a big determining 711 00:30:55,960 --> 00:30:58,440 Speaker 2: factor here. Look the Warriors offense, You're right, hit or miss. 712 00:30:58,680 --> 00:31:01,680 Speaker 2: The floor for them is so much lower. 713 00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:02,200 Speaker 1: Than it used to be. 714 00:31:02,320 --> 00:31:04,360 Speaker 2: Oh yeah, just so, and it's been that way all 715 00:31:04,440 --> 00:31:06,840 Speaker 2: year that it's pedestrian. The problem, I think is if 716 00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:08,440 Speaker 2: you look at it, as good as Phoenix as half 717 00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:10,840 Speaker 2: court offense has been, there's been some cracks in the defense, 718 00:31:11,280 --> 00:31:14,840 Speaker 2: Like their defense has a little bit more difficulty, and 719 00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:17,000 Speaker 2: a lot of that is because they don't have the 720 00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:19,880 Speaker 2: five out switch small ball counter that they used to have. 721 00:31:20,240 --> 00:31:22,880 Speaker 2: That lack of versatility I think kills you Versus Golden State, 722 00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:25,840 Speaker 2: I think it'll be a great series if you do 723 00:31:25,960 --> 00:31:26,880 Speaker 2: lean Suns. 724 00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:28,680 Speaker 1: I have a play for you, which is a FanDuel. 725 00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:31,480 Speaker 2: They actually have Western Conference exact results, and as recorded 726 00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:35,880 Speaker 2: on Tuesday afternoon, Suns to beat Warriors is plus one ninety. 727 00:31:35,920 --> 00:31:37,360 Speaker 2: You'll still probably be able to get that at a 728 00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:39,520 Speaker 2: very good number. Even if Phoenix wins game five. 729 00:31:39,720 --> 00:31:41,560 Speaker 3: Wow, that's an awesome number. 730 00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:44,280 Speaker 2: Plus one ninety to beat the Warriors, So they have 731 00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:46,440 Speaker 2: to factor that in because the Warriors are much more 732 00:31:46,520 --> 00:31:48,840 Speaker 2: likely to get there than the Suns are. Even again, 733 00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:50,480 Speaker 2: if the Suns win Game five, that number is going 734 00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:52,320 Speaker 2: to drop. You will still get a better number on 735 00:31:52,360 --> 00:31:53,880 Speaker 2: that than you will just for the Suns to win 736 00:31:53,880 --> 00:31:56,360 Speaker 2: the Western Conference because they'll have to lead the possibility 737 00:31:56,400 --> 00:31:59,160 Speaker 2: open of Golden State blowing a three to one lead 738 00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:01,920 Speaker 2: to the Grizzlies. When would they ever do that? So, 739 00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:04,920 Speaker 2: as we factor in all of these kind of things, 740 00:32:04,920 --> 00:32:07,080 Speaker 2: I think that's probably your best play on the Suns. 741 00:32:07,120 --> 00:32:10,560 Speaker 2: Warriors to beat Suns, by the way is plus one ninety, 742 00:32:11,080 --> 00:32:13,640 Speaker 2: so you're able to Yeah, you're able to get good 743 00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:15,640 Speaker 2: value at either one. I've been hitting these a lot. 744 00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:18,040 Speaker 2: The Eastern Conference odds are similarly really interesting. 745 00:32:18,520 --> 00:32:19,200 Speaker 1: We get out of here. 746 00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:20,560 Speaker 2: But before we go, I do want to get your 747 00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:25,280 Speaker 2: thoughts on Finals MVP because you've got to lean towards 748 00:32:25,280 --> 00:32:27,560 Speaker 2: the Suns of the eventual champion. They are plus four 749 00:32:27,560 --> 00:32:29,840 Speaker 2: to ten to win the title right now in a 750 00:32:29,880 --> 00:32:33,360 Speaker 2: two two series, so there's great value I think objectively 751 00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:36,320 Speaker 2: on the Celtics to win the title Finals MVP, though, 752 00:32:36,440 --> 00:32:38,920 Speaker 2: Jason Tatum is plus five point fifty. 753 00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:42,120 Speaker 1: Okay, wow, yeah, plus five fifty. 754 00:32:42,240 --> 00:32:46,040 Speaker 2: You've got a number of Jalen Brown is plus twenty 755 00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:48,080 Speaker 2: five hundred, so it's twenty five to one on him. 756 00:32:48,360 --> 00:32:51,400 Speaker 2: Marcus Smart kind of interesting at fifty five hundred if 757 00:32:51,400 --> 00:32:54,360 Speaker 2: it were to be Celtics Warriors or Celtics Suns, and 758 00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:56,920 Speaker 2: Marcus Smart had one of those defensive games for the 759 00:32:56,960 --> 00:32:59,480 Speaker 2: Ages and just had a few good games. 760 00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:00,720 Speaker 1: I'm sure there's. 761 00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:03,400 Speaker 2: Terrible value there. I was curious about if you had 762 00:33:03,400 --> 00:33:06,000 Speaker 2: a thought on Finals MVP that you would bet right now. 763 00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:08,840 Speaker 4: That's super interesting because I thought Marcus Smart was the 764 00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:12,680 Speaker 4: MVP down the stretch against Milwaukee last night. Yeah, his 765 00:33:13,520 --> 00:33:16,200 Speaker 4: playmaking and shot making towards the end of the third quarter, 766 00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:18,160 Speaker 4: down the stretch in the fourth I thought was amazing. 767 00:33:18,640 --> 00:33:21,160 Speaker 4: That's actually super interesting value there. The other one I 768 00:33:21,240 --> 00:33:23,440 Speaker 4: like that Jordan Poole at twenty four hundred is super 769 00:33:23,440 --> 00:33:25,800 Speaker 4: interesting because you could totally see a series where he 770 00:33:26,400 --> 00:33:31,480 Speaker 4: averages you know, twenty seven twenty eight points. Yeah, those 771 00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:32,800 Speaker 4: are the two that stand out the most to me. 772 00:33:32,920 --> 00:33:35,360 Speaker 4: Luca plus twenty four hundred. If you just think that 773 00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:38,120 Speaker 4: he gets hot and somehow escapes, I think you know. 774 00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:38,320 Speaker 2: So. 775 00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:42,560 Speaker 4: Dallas Golden State is a super interesting series to me 776 00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:46,800 Speaker 4: because Luca, I think, would go nuts against against switches 777 00:33:46,840 --> 00:33:49,479 Speaker 4: in that series all series long. But yeah, I'd say 778 00:33:49,520 --> 00:33:51,240 Speaker 4: Jordan Pool is probably the biggest value that stands out 779 00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:51,680 Speaker 4: to me there. 780 00:33:51,960 --> 00:33:54,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree on that as well. If you're into Philly, 781 00:33:54,520 --> 00:33:56,160 Speaker 2: which I'm not. But if you're into Philly, Joelle is 782 00:33:56,600 --> 00:33:59,000 Speaker 2: seventeen to one, you're not gonna get better hot value 783 00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:00,840 Speaker 2: than that because he makes the and you think the 784 00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:02,880 Speaker 2: Sixers have any chance of winning, it's gonna. 785 00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:04,840 Speaker 1: Because he's got that. 786 00:34:04,840 --> 00:34:08,400 Speaker 2: That's Jason tem He is the host of Hoops Tonight 787 00:34:08,840 --> 00:34:11,320 Speaker 2: with Jason Tim. You can find on YouTube file on Twitter, 788 00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:16,160 Speaker 2: Great follow Underscore Jason LT. Great stuff from Jason follow him. 789 00:34:16,239 --> 00:34:18,960 Speaker 2: Make sure to check out the Volume podcast network. Jason, 790 00:34:19,000 --> 00:34:19,880 Speaker 2: Thanks so much for coming on. 791 00:34:20,360 --> 00:34:22,480 Speaker 3: Thanks again, Matt, anytime man. That had a lot of fun. 792 00:34:22,840 --> 00:34:24,640 Speaker 2: We'll be act later this week with more episodes of 793 00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:28,040 Speaker 2: the Action Network podcast, Getting you set for NFL offseason, 794 00:34:28,480 --> 00:34:30,319 Speaker 2: NHL Playoffs, all that and more. 795 00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:31,080 Speaker 1: Keep it right here. 796 00:34:31,160 --> 00:34:33,520 Speaker 2: Make sure check out Buckets, our NBA podcast where we 797 00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:35,239 Speaker 2: break down the games every single day and get you 798 00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:38,239 Speaker 2: the best value, and download the Action Network app. Until 799 00:34:38,280 --> 00:34:40,560 Speaker 2: next time, I'm Matt Moore. Thanks for joining us on 800 00:34:40,600 --> 00:34:42,160 Speaker 2: the Action Network Podcast.