WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2019 NFL MegaPod Week 17 Preview 0:00:00.960 --> 0:00:12.320 Tom check It on Man No Down Now Thursday Morning, December, 0:00:12.360 --> 0:00:18.239 Team Up Beating the Book podcast Megapod Week seventeen in 0:00:18.280 --> 0:00:21.160 the National Football League be scuoreliest of all weeks. It's 0:00:21.160 --> 0:00:25.680 Gill Alexander Skeletal Crew because it's the week between Christmas 0:00:25.680 --> 0:00:27.479 and New Year's. We didn't used to do a podcast 0:00:27.560 --> 0:00:30.440 between Christmas and New Year's, but we are that dedicated. 0:00:30.680 --> 0:00:34.760 The Skeletal Crew on my left from Showtime's action docuseries 0:00:34.840 --> 0:00:37.320 and of course Wednesday's on the Numbers game at Visa 0:00:37.920 --> 0:00:41.640 Todd Wishnev, how are you doing Toddy here? Gil Todd 0:00:41.760 --> 0:00:44.319 is Todd is having Todd is having some issues at 0:00:44.320 --> 0:00:48.080 his building. So thus the quick response and Jeff parlay 0:00:48.440 --> 0:00:50.760 the laugh you heard on the right. My producer number 0:00:50.760 --> 0:00:53.160 five cant enough to join us. How you doing, Jeff better? 0:00:53.720 --> 0:00:57.280 You know I'm better than Todd. Because the fiasco to 0:00:57.600 --> 0:00:59.720 Mr Wishnevs had to deal with over the last two 0:00:59.800 --> 0:01:02.280 days does not sound fun. Todd tell the people what 0:01:02.360 --> 0:01:04.800 happened at three am on Christmas Eve, three o'clock in 0:01:04.840 --> 0:01:07.280 the morning, I hear a big sound in my apartment. 0:01:07.319 --> 0:01:10.319 I go, I think it's coming from outside. I can't 0:01:10.319 --> 0:01:13.679 figure out what it is. Then my neighbor starts, somebody's 0:01:13.680 --> 0:01:15.720 banging on my door at three o'clock in the morning. 0:01:15.760 --> 0:01:19.760 I'm getting a little nervous. It's my neighbor. He's like, oh, 0:01:19.800 --> 0:01:23.600 there's water from in the downstairs apartment, coming from my 0:01:23.640 --> 0:01:27.080 water heater. We go outside, my water heater has exploded 0:01:27.120 --> 0:01:30.039 and there's water everywhere. And of course you can't get 0:01:30.040 --> 0:01:33.080 a plumber on Christmas Eve or Christmas, so just tons 0:01:33.080 --> 0:01:35.080 of fun. So is the water heater or the building 0:01:35.080 --> 0:01:38.720 water heater in your apartment specifically, it's the it's the 0:01:38.760 --> 0:01:41.000 water heater that's in my apartment out on the patio. 0:01:41.240 --> 0:01:43.960 I didn't realize that, So now you have you also 0:01:44.000 --> 0:01:46.720 have the burden of that, the guilt of that. Well, 0:01:46.959 --> 0:01:49.400 well it's not it's not my fault. It's just the 0:01:49.440 --> 0:01:51.800 owners of the apartment that didn't you know, don't have 0:01:51.840 --> 0:01:53.560 a good water here, right, I know. But that's why 0:01:53.560 --> 0:01:56.680 they came banging on your door. Anyway. Oh yeah, I'm 0:01:56.720 --> 0:01:59.600 so sorry, Tod. It's actually just it's lucky I was 0:01:59.600 --> 0:02:04.280 in town because it would have been a real major disaster. Yeah. 0:02:04.320 --> 0:02:07.360 I had a burst from the apartment next door and 0:02:07.440 --> 0:02:09.160 I said the same thing. There was. There was water 0:02:09.280 --> 0:02:12.200 all over my apartment from the burst in the apartment 0:02:12.200 --> 0:02:13.400 next door. I was like, if I had been out 0:02:13.400 --> 0:02:17.400 of town, the entire apartment would have been toast. So 0:02:17.720 --> 0:02:19.400 let's do the podcast. Let's get you out of there 0:02:19.480 --> 0:02:21.200 watching football. Get you out of the cold, because you 0:02:21.240 --> 0:02:24.360 must be freezing. Man, are you cold? It's a little 0:02:24.400 --> 0:02:26.400 chili in here. Oh my god, Todd Wish and have 0:02:26.400 --> 0:02:29.040 planned hurt. There will be no singing on this podcast. 0:02:29.080 --> 0:02:30.880 Is that what you're telling us right now? Off the top, 0:02:31.320 --> 0:02:33.600 I'm not really in a case seeing the Sunshine band 0:02:33.600 --> 0:02:37.960 mood today. It was phenomenal last week. All right, well, 0:02:38.040 --> 0:02:40.040 let's talk football. Let's get through it. We should be 0:02:40.080 --> 0:02:43.360 real quick. Then a week seventeen tough to come up 0:02:43.400 --> 0:02:47.240 with three games or three sides or totals every week, 0:02:47.240 --> 0:02:50.600 but in week seventeen it's nearly impossible. But we will 0:02:50.600 --> 0:02:53.040 try to do so because people have the thirst for 0:02:53.200 --> 0:02:55.600 the at least opinions, and then they can choose to 0:02:55.600 --> 0:02:58.120 go with them or not. There's no Circle update because 0:02:58.120 --> 0:03:00.200 Mike Palm cannot make it today. We'll try to at 0:03:00.240 --> 0:03:02.799 Mike's picks by the end of the show. You want 0:03:02.800 --> 0:03:05.000 to send him a text home just to see what's up. 0:03:05.080 --> 0:03:07.600 If you can get text like last week, we'll do that. 0:03:08.000 --> 0:03:10.080 Let us begin with and there's and by the way, 0:03:10.080 --> 0:03:11.840 there's no Thursday night games, so there's nothing to talk 0:03:11.880 --> 0:03:15.280 about there. Let's begin with the best bets Jeff Parlay. 0:03:15.280 --> 0:03:17.240 By the way, Jeff Parlay hosts the show at Visa 0:03:17.280 --> 0:03:19.560 as well. I bury the headline he hosted as Jeff 0:03:19.560 --> 0:03:22.080 Parl's each and every Monday through Friday called market Watch 0:03:22.080 --> 0:03:24.200 as well. People should know about that. Four to six, 0:03:24.000 --> 0:03:28.320 seven and nine yep, seven and nine Eastern time to 0:03:28.680 --> 0:03:32.440 seven nine Eastern time. You know, Gil, this is a 0:03:32.560 --> 0:03:39.280 terrible weeks. Terrible. So so what I'm going to do is, 0:03:39.320 --> 0:03:41.119 I'm going to go back to the Todd Wish Nev 0:03:41.200 --> 0:03:43.560 Well and I'm gonna go over in a Tampa Bay 0:03:43.560 --> 0:03:47.120 Buccaneer games since we had one that went under last week. 0:03:47.240 --> 0:03:51.360 And Jamis Winston is two interceptions away from joining the 0:03:51.440 --> 0:03:54.440 ranks of jose Can saco and and Barry Bonds and 0:03:54.480 --> 0:03:56.600 William Made. I'll wait a second, that's the wrong sport. 0:03:56.920 --> 0:03:59.560 Jamie throws two picks that he gets the thirty picks 0:04:00.000 --> 0:04:02.920 along with the thirty one touchdowns he already has. He 0:04:03.040 --> 0:04:05.119 nearly threw two pick six is in the first two 0:04:05.120 --> 0:04:08.680 minutes of the game against Houston on Saturday. The second 0:04:08.680 --> 0:04:11.400 one was called back on a on a penalty on 0:04:11.400 --> 0:04:14.920 the return. But look, I'm seeing for gil it's a 0:04:15.000 --> 0:04:16.880 forty seven and a half or forty eight on this 0:04:16.960 --> 0:04:19.280 total for Atlanta and Tampa. Because I'm seeing both on 0:04:19.320 --> 0:04:22.159 my screen. It doesn't matter the number. I'll go over 0:04:22.560 --> 0:04:25.080 either of the forty seven and a half wins out. 0:04:25.760 --> 0:04:28.440 I'll take the less I'll take the lesser number very happily. 0:04:28.480 --> 0:04:31.239 I'll go over to forty seven and a half. Look, Atlanta, 0:04:31.240 --> 0:04:35.360 Atlanta's offense, Julio Jones has been absolutely incredible. Uh, he's 0:04:35.640 --> 0:04:39.359 I would expect that he's expected to play. Uh. Dan Quinn, 0:04:40.080 --> 0:04:41.360 we don't know if he's gonna be out or not 0:04:41.520 --> 0:04:44.400 after this game. But I'll go over to forty seven 0:04:44.400 --> 0:04:46.680 and a half in Tampa Atlanta forty seven and a half. 0:04:46.680 --> 0:04:48.120 It is, Todd, I don't know if that's allowed. Is 0:04:48.120 --> 0:04:51.239 it allowed that he bites your pick? Tampa Bay overs 0:04:51.279 --> 0:04:53.520 It was gonna be my first pick too, So alright, 0:04:53.520 --> 0:04:56.080 well there you go, there you go. First pick for both. 0:04:56.400 --> 0:04:59.240 We've said this many times before this season, but I'll 0:04:59.240 --> 0:05:02.159 say it again. That was the most Jamis game ever 0:05:02.680 --> 0:05:08.719 against Houston on Saturday, forty five, one touchdown, four picks, 0:05:09.640 --> 0:05:13.080 three sacks. It was his eleventh career game with at 0:05:13.120 --> 0:05:16.280 least three interceptions, and Bradley Robbie returned one of those 0:05:16.320 --> 0:05:19.039 four picks. Is Jeff mentioned twenty seven yards to the 0:05:19.080 --> 0:05:22.719 house to begin the game. It's the sixth pick six 0:05:23.240 --> 0:05:27.080 the Bucks QB has thrown this season. Six and the 0:05:27.120 --> 0:05:31.359 Bucks say we're going with Jamison. They are going with 0:05:31.440 --> 0:05:34.479 Jamis Winston. And here's the one thing I will say 0:05:34.480 --> 0:05:38.240 about Jamis Winston. Could you imagine having a just the 0:05:38.279 --> 0:05:41.880 ability to not care like he did, like having that 0:05:42.040 --> 0:05:45.520 type of conscience where you're like, I'm just gonna play through. 0:05:45.560 --> 0:05:49.240 It doesn't matter what happens short memory, I'm playing the 0:05:49.279 --> 0:05:52.000 next series. So I guess in that respect, I give 0:05:52.080 --> 0:05:56.440 him credit. But Tampa Bay Atlanta, Jeff going over forty 0:05:56.520 --> 0:05:58.200 seven and a half. By the way, Tampa Bay now 0:05:58.360 --> 0:06:00.320 one point favorite in that game. But are both of 0:06:00.360 --> 0:06:03.560 you guys over forty seven and a half on Tampa 0:06:03.600 --> 0:06:06.520 Bay Pick number one for me, Kansas City, I'm taking 0:06:06.520 --> 0:06:09.760 the Chiefs. I'm laying the points against the Chargers. On 0:06:09.920 --> 0:06:12.720 guessing lines, I guess that this would be ten, much 0:06:12.760 --> 0:06:15.599 to my surprise, and one of those picks where Christie 0:06:15.600 --> 0:06:18.240 Andrews said, I like your number a lot better. It 0:06:18.360 --> 0:06:22.919 was seven to open, it's now nine. I'm still taking it. 0:06:22.960 --> 0:06:26.800 As long as it's below ten, I am grabbing the Chiefs. Now. 0:06:27.160 --> 0:06:30.680 The NFL has legislated out the possibility of correlated parlays 0:06:30.960 --> 0:06:34.839 or games that impact other games occur at different times. 0:06:34.880 --> 0:06:36.920 This is concurrent. This is happening at the same time 0:06:36.960 --> 0:06:41.120 as the New England Miami game. So again, if New 0:06:41.120 --> 0:06:43.120 England wins, they get the number two position in the 0:06:43.120 --> 0:06:45.560 a f C playoffs and therefore first round by Kansas 0:06:45.560 --> 0:06:47.640 City would need to win and have New England lose 0:06:47.960 --> 0:06:49.920 for Kansas City to jump them and get to the 0:06:50.000 --> 0:06:52.360 number two seed in the first round by. So I 0:06:52.360 --> 0:06:55.000 don't know how much scoreboard watching is gonna be going on. 0:06:55.080 --> 0:06:57.640 If Kansas City sees that New England's up three touchdowns 0:06:57.680 --> 0:07:00.480 let's say against the Dolphins, Sure could they whole back 0:07:00.480 --> 0:07:04.400 and not cover this? Yeah, I'll take that risk. The 0:07:04.520 --> 0:07:06.880 Chargers last week, and I talked about it a lot 0:07:06.920 --> 0:07:10.320 on Guessing Lines, the display by Anthony Lynn at the 0:07:10.400 --> 0:07:12.000 end of the first half, and I won't get into 0:07:12.000 --> 0:07:16.480 the details again, but just the mismanagement, the fact that 0:07:16.520 --> 0:07:20.040 Philip Rivers is allowed to just run things and make 0:07:20.160 --> 0:07:23.360 all the bad decisions. They don't do things on offense 0:07:23.400 --> 0:07:26.360 when they're supposed to, they call time outs when they're 0:07:26.400 --> 0:07:28.920 not supposed to. And then there's the whole Philip Rivers 0:07:28.960 --> 0:07:30.960 thing that he's checked out. There was a block he 0:07:30.960 --> 0:07:33.080 could have made. I said this on Guessing Lines. You 0:07:33.120 --> 0:07:37.000 need a difference between Philip Rivers and Tom Brady. Besides everything, 0:07:37.640 --> 0:07:39.640 the fact that Tom Brady will throw a key block 0:07:39.680 --> 0:07:42.360 in a key situation, but Philip Rivers will punt on it, 0:07:42.520 --> 0:07:44.640 that he will make an executive decision and just say, 0:07:44.680 --> 0:07:47.480 you know what, business decision. I'm not blocking. Oh my 0:07:47.640 --> 0:07:50.160 thumb hurts. I gave it a try. I could have 0:07:50.200 --> 0:07:52.560 sprung Auston Ekeler for a fifteen yard game, just decided 0:07:52.600 --> 0:07:55.440 not to block. I think the Chargers are done. I 0:07:55.440 --> 0:07:58.680 think they're already on vacation Kansas City giving the nine points. 0:07:58.720 --> 0:08:03.120 That's pick number one, number two. Jeffrey, all right, I'm 0:08:03.200 --> 0:08:06.240 going against the I'm going against the team that has 0:08:06.320 --> 0:08:09.280 to win here, Gil, and I am going against the 0:08:09.280 --> 0:08:12.400 team that is playing their backups. I'm taking the Baltimore 0:08:12.480 --> 0:08:15.840 Ravens plus the two against Pittsburgh. Gil, your guy r 0:08:15.920 --> 0:08:19.360 G three is better than whoever Pittsburgh is gonna start 0:08:19.720 --> 0:08:22.800 at quarterback on Sunday. If it's Duck Hodges, which looks 0:08:22.840 --> 0:08:25.040 like it's going to be. I know Rudolph got put 0:08:25.080 --> 0:08:27.800 on I R Paxton lynches his back up, so it's 0:08:27.800 --> 0:08:30.680 gonna be Duck Hodges all the way through. Look, I 0:08:30.680 --> 0:08:34.880 don't care to Baltimore sitting there, Guys, it's still Baltimore Pittsburgh, 0:08:35.120 --> 0:08:39.320 and the Pittsburgh Steelers offense is horrendous. If the Steeler 0:08:39.360 --> 0:08:42.600 defense is going to have to score once in order 0:08:42.640 --> 0:08:45.680 for them to even beat the RG three lad Ravens, 0:08:46.040 --> 0:08:47.800 I don't think they're gonna be able to do that. Look. 0:08:47.880 --> 0:08:50.360 R G three has always protected the ball in his career, 0:08:50.440 --> 0:08:53.880 regardless of his regardless of how good or bad he was. 0:08:53.960 --> 0:08:56.600 Even though he was never bad, he just was not never, 0:08:56.679 --> 0:08:59.480 never the same obviously as he was in that unbelievable 0:08:59.559 --> 0:09:02.160 rookie pain before that h c L there. But I'm 0:09:02.160 --> 0:09:04.880 going with the Ravens plus the two I'm going. I'm 0:09:04.920 --> 0:09:07.720 going against the must win team here, so I'll take 0:09:07.720 --> 0:09:09.880 Baltimore plus two at all. Thanks for cleaning up that 0:09:10.000 --> 0:09:11.640 RG three bit For a second there, I thought you 0:09:11.640 --> 0:09:13.960 were gonna say something negative about RG three. That would 0:09:14.000 --> 0:09:16.440 be the instant That would be the instant ejection. By 0:09:16.480 --> 0:09:18.840 the way, I'll go through the Pittsburgh Steelers playoff permutation? 0:09:18.920 --> 0:09:20.440 Shall I do that real quick? Do you guys have 0:09:20.480 --> 0:09:24.360 twenty minutes us Pittsburgh clinches a playoff berth with a 0:09:24.400 --> 0:09:29.080 Pittsburgh win here against Baltimore and a Tennessee loss or 0:09:29.240 --> 0:09:34.760 tie Tennessee playing Houston week seventeen. These are late games, 0:09:34.760 --> 0:09:37.040 both the Pittsburgh and Tennessee games running concurrent in a 0:09:37.120 --> 0:09:42.240 late window. Or if Pittsburgh ties and Tennessee loses, or 0:09:42.400 --> 0:09:47.720 if Tennessee loses in Indianapolis wins plus Oakland loses or ties, 0:09:48.559 --> 0:09:53.120 or if Tennessee loses an Indianapolis wins and Pittsburgh ties 0:09:53.200 --> 0:09:57.400 Oakland in strength of victory tiebreaker. You got all that Pittsburgh, 0:09:57.400 --> 0:09:59.280 by the way, with tye Oakland and strength of victory. 0:09:59.600 --> 0:10:02.320 If all of the following teams win Minnesota, Green Bay 0:10:02.400 --> 0:10:06.160 Kansas City, and Miami. So all of those are ways 0:10:06.679 --> 0:10:09.280 that the Steelers could get into the playoffs. The easiest way, 0:10:09.280 --> 0:10:12.320 of course, Pittsburgh wins and Tennessee loses their ties. That's 0:10:12.360 --> 0:10:15.840 really all you have to remember there. So Baltimore the 0:10:15.960 --> 0:10:20.000 sort of contrarian pick for young Jeff taking r G three. 0:10:20.240 --> 0:10:22.800 By the way, shout out to r G three, who 0:10:22.840 --> 0:10:25.200 some people had left for dead in this league. Make 0:10:25.240 --> 0:10:27.280 it himself a super Bowl ring this year. Who knows 0:10:27.440 --> 0:10:31.000 Baltimore Jeff's number two pick, taking the two points Todd 0:10:31.040 --> 0:10:33.520 pick number two. Jeff's taking all my picks. I like 0:10:33.600 --> 0:10:39.040 Baltimore plus two. Also, I saw this, Uh, I saw 0:10:39.080 --> 0:10:42.160 this line and I was like, oh, that's ridiculous. Um, 0:10:42.200 --> 0:10:44.840 at least Baltimore is playing with a quarterback. The Steelers 0:10:44.880 --> 0:10:48.960 have zero quarterbacks. Baltimore is playing with RG three. Who 0:10:49.000 --> 0:10:51.200 knows how good he'll be, but he can't be worse 0:10:51.640 --> 0:10:55.160 than my friends Duck Hodges and Mason Rudolph. The Baltimore 0:10:55.200 --> 0:10:58.280 defense is still going to be out there. I've seen 0:10:58.320 --> 0:11:00.520 this a million times. The team who who has to 0:11:00.559 --> 0:11:03.640 win doesn't end up winning, and uh, the team that 0:11:03.760 --> 0:11:06.480 doesn't really need it ends up winning. I've seen it 0:11:06.520 --> 0:11:09.760 too many times. Baltimore is just way too much for Pittsburgh, 0:11:09.840 --> 0:11:12.160 especially at home. They don't want to let Pittsburgh into 0:11:12.160 --> 0:11:15.640 the playoffs. Give me Baltimore plus two as well. Baltimore, 0:11:15.640 --> 0:11:17.480 who has already clinched home field advantage through the a 0:11:17.520 --> 0:11:19.959 f C playoffs, have nothing to play for here r 0:11:20.040 --> 0:11:21.600 G three at the help Man and you're right, Todd. 0:11:21.600 --> 0:11:23.840 What Todd says right there. We've seen it so many 0:11:23.840 --> 0:11:26.080 times before, and Dr Bob was great to have on 0:11:26.120 --> 0:11:29.680 the show last week. Again, teams and absolute must win situations, 0:11:29.880 --> 0:11:32.840 which we just documented. Pittsburgh is not exactly in that 0:11:32.880 --> 0:11:36.239 situation here. What Bob was talking about teams like Oakland 0:11:36.360 --> 0:11:39.880 Oakland applies this week. They're an absolute must win situation 0:11:39.880 --> 0:11:41.960 against the team that has nothing to play for. It 0:11:42.080 --> 0:11:45.280 is a losing proposition and a big time losing proposition 0:11:45.280 --> 0:11:47.480 over time. But even a team like Pittsburgh, which for 0:11:47.520 --> 0:11:50.000 all intents and purposes, are in a must win we 0:11:50.120 --> 0:11:51.960 see it all the time. They just lay an egg 0:11:52.080 --> 0:11:56.160 pick number two for me along those lines, I'm taking 0:11:56.160 --> 0:11:58.520 the New York Giants plus the four and a half 0:11:58.559 --> 0:12:02.160 against the Philadelphia Eagles in the Again, the late window, 0:12:02.360 --> 0:12:06.160 the afternoon window, if you will, for PM Eastern kickoff 0:12:07.000 --> 0:12:10.840 Pacific for the Eagles. The Eagles simply will win the 0:12:10.960 --> 0:12:14.959 NFC East by beating the Giants. All they got to do. Dallas, 0:12:14.960 --> 0:12:16.719 of course, will be watching it. They're playing at the 0:12:16.760 --> 0:12:20.040 same time they're playing the Redskins. For Dallas to get 0:12:20.080 --> 0:12:22.200 the NFC East titled, they must beat the Redskins and 0:12:22.240 --> 0:12:24.720 have the Eagles lose. I think the Giants are gonna 0:12:24.760 --> 0:12:27.640 do the Cowboys of solid I actually think they win 0:12:27.720 --> 0:12:30.160 this game out right, but I'm certainly taking the four 0:12:30.200 --> 0:12:32.800 and a half points as pick number two. I think 0:12:32.800 --> 0:12:35.920 the Giants are live here. I know they were playing 0:12:35.960 --> 0:12:39.640 a horrific Redskins defense last week and they were able 0:12:39.679 --> 0:12:43.680 to just go nuts, winning ultimately in overtime for thirty 0:12:43.720 --> 0:12:47.920 five Daniel Jones five touchdown passes against the Skins, and 0:12:47.960 --> 0:12:49.960 I know the Eagles defense is a much different animal. 0:12:50.120 --> 0:12:53.319 But on the other side of the ball, for all 0:12:53.320 --> 0:12:55.560 this talk about Philadelphia beating Dallas, and they did do 0:12:55.600 --> 0:12:57.680 it with the Skeletal Crew, and Troy Aikman called it 0:12:57.920 --> 0:13:01.960 the greatest team win he's ever seenen which might be hyperbole, 0:13:02.080 --> 0:13:07.240 I don't know, but the Philadelphia offense is terrible, and 0:13:07.280 --> 0:13:09.640 it's really not their fault. They don't have players. Gary 0:13:09.720 --> 0:13:13.440 Ward is the guy for Carson Wentz right now. They 0:13:13.480 --> 0:13:16.520 just have a mash unit in Philadelphia. I will take 0:13:16.520 --> 0:13:19.679 the Giants plus those points. I look for an outright 0:13:19.800 --> 0:13:21.800 upset here. And by the way, just let me list 0:13:21.800 --> 0:13:25.520 some of those Philadelphia players. Jordan Howard, Nelson, aghil Or, 0:13:25.640 --> 0:13:29.400 Lane Johnson, Darren Sprouls, Shawn Jackson, Al Shan, Jeffrey, Malik Jackson, 0:13:29.679 --> 0:13:31.760 Deshaun is supposed to show up for the playoffs if 0:13:31.760 --> 0:13:34.680 the Eagles get there. I don't think they do. Eagles 0:13:34.679 --> 0:13:37.640 only scored seventeen against Dallas last week. With all that 0:13:37.679 --> 0:13:40.280 hoopla plus Sa Kwan all of a sudden looks like 0:13:40.280 --> 0:13:42.439 say Kwan again. I'll certainly take the Giants and the 0:13:42.480 --> 0:13:45.600 points is pick number two, pick number three Jeffrey. Okay, 0:13:45.640 --> 0:13:49.440 there's no reasoning other than the fact that my favorite 0:13:49.440 --> 0:13:53.040 football team likes to screw upt their draft position as 0:13:53.040 --> 0:13:56.080 good as any team in the history of professional sports. 0:13:56.520 --> 0:13:58.640 So I'm taking the New York Jets plus one and 0:13:58.679 --> 0:14:02.160 a half at Buffalo, mostly because a the Bills are 0:14:02.280 --> 0:14:04.839 have nothing to play for. We're not certain on who's 0:14:04.880 --> 0:14:07.760 gonna play in that game for the Bills, but at 0:14:07.800 --> 0:14:11.000 trade Avious White and Josh Allen play more than three 0:14:11.040 --> 0:14:14.839 snaps apiece. There is something horribly wrong with with what 0:14:14.880 --> 0:14:17.320 the Bills are doing in that game. But this is 0:14:17.360 --> 0:14:20.960 solely there is no true, real rationale of this one, 0:14:20.960 --> 0:14:22.880 and I'm I'm going to assume Todd is not going 0:14:22.920 --> 0:14:24.720 to have the same pick as me on this one 0:14:24.760 --> 0:14:27.680 as well. But I'm taking the Jets plus one and 0:14:27.680 --> 0:14:30.800 a half. So the Jets screw their draft position and 0:14:30.960 --> 0:14:34.040 move deeper into the first round and miss out on 0:14:34.120 --> 0:14:37.680 some franchise left tackle, And we're doing this whole ridiculous 0:14:37.720 --> 0:14:42.040 song and dance again in twelve months from now, the 0:14:42.160 --> 0:14:45.360 Jets plus one and a half at Buffalo to screw 0:14:45.400 --> 0:14:47.880 up their draft position. Todd number three, you know I'm 0:14:47.880 --> 0:14:51.040 gonna go back to the Miami Dolphins. Well, uh, the 0:14:51.080 --> 0:14:53.480 Miami Dolphins gave me one of the worst beats of 0:14:53.520 --> 0:14:55.760 in game betting I've ever had in my life. Class 0:14:56.680 --> 0:14:59.840 I had the Dolphins minus three and a half. They 0:14:59.840 --> 0:15:02.960 were up sixteen with less than a minute ago. Cincinnati 0:15:02.960 --> 0:15:05.480 gets a touchdown, a two point conversion and on side 0:15:05.600 --> 0:15:09.320 kicking another touchdown on the last play. Uh, and I 0:15:09.440 --> 0:15:12.360 take a horrible beating when Miami wins by three in 0:15:12.440 --> 0:15:15.520 overtime and my three and a half goes down the train. 0:15:15.840 --> 0:15:19.920 But I will take Miami this week. Uh, sixteen point 0:15:20.000 --> 0:15:23.200 favorites New England. Uh. New England had to pull out 0:15:23.240 --> 0:15:26.040 all the stops to beat the Buffalo Bills last week. 0:15:26.360 --> 0:15:30.160 That was really a toss up game Miami. As we've 0:15:30.200 --> 0:15:33.600 said all year, they're not as bad as they seem. Uh. 0:15:33.760 --> 0:15:35.600 Sure they could get blown out, but I could just 0:15:35.640 --> 0:15:38.880 as easily see Belichick playing at real conservative here and 0:15:38.880 --> 0:15:43.040 winning like twenty seven or something like that. So I'll 0:15:43.080 --> 0:15:46.400 take Miami with all those zillions of points. I think 0:15:46.400 --> 0:15:49.880 it's plus sixteen now, and uh, I hope I can 0:15:49.920 --> 0:15:52.760 get in under the number. Don't sell yourself short, tupped. 0:15:52.880 --> 0:15:54.680 That was a far worse beat than you're even giving 0:15:54.720 --> 0:15:57.880 yourself credit for. Down twenty three, thirty five to twelve 0:15:58.400 --> 0:16:03.840 with five minutes left, down sixteen, Miami gave up sixteen 0:16:03.920 --> 0:16:08.000 points in the final twenty nine seconds of regulation. So, 0:16:08.160 --> 0:16:11.320 as Jeff put it before a numbers game on Monday, 0:16:11.480 --> 0:16:13.200 you know all those times where you're on the wrong 0:16:13.240 --> 0:16:15.640 side of a bet and you try to convince yourself 0:16:15.680 --> 0:16:18.360 you have a chance where you go, well, uh, you know, 0:16:18.400 --> 0:16:20.520 if we just scored touchdown on this drive and then 0:16:20.600 --> 0:16:22.840 like we stopped them, and then we score and get 0:16:22.840 --> 0:16:24.600 the two point conversion, and then we get an onside 0:16:24.640 --> 0:16:26.480 kick and we recover that and get a touchdown another 0:16:26.480 --> 0:16:28.800 two boy conversion, it'll be a tie game. Like you know, 0:16:28.880 --> 0:16:32.800 you go through those things sometimes it happened. That's exactly 0:16:32.840 --> 0:16:36.320 what happened with Cincinnati, and they forced over time and 0:16:36.400 --> 0:16:41.440 poor time. Had I sweat games that that I have 0:16:41.520 --> 0:16:44.440 no business losing, and r G in the book it's 0:16:44.440 --> 0:16:46.480 all mad at me because he's like, there's no way 0:16:46.520 --> 0:16:49.440 you can lose. Relax. I wasn't even sweating this game. 0:16:49.840 --> 0:16:52.680 That's how much I had thought it was a win. 0:16:52.920 --> 0:16:56.440 I wasn't even sweating. I was like, there's just no way. Cincinnati, 0:16:56.520 --> 0:16:59.200 even after they got the onsets kick, they still had 0:16:59.240 --> 0:17:01.640 no time out from their own forty yard line with 0:17:01.680 --> 0:17:05.520 like forty seconds to go. It was unbelievable that they 0:17:05.520 --> 0:17:08.359 were able to get a touchdown there. So whatever, you know, 0:17:08.480 --> 0:17:10.800 just chalk it up to a beautiful week for me. 0:17:10.840 --> 0:17:14.040 I've had, you know, busting water heaters in the middle 0:17:14.040 --> 0:17:17.840 of the night and beautiful bad beats and all kinds 0:17:17.880 --> 0:17:22.080 of fun. You're a joy to listen to. A joy. Uh, 0:17:22.080 --> 0:17:26.480 it's you're right, though, Like literally, I had stopped watching 0:17:26.520 --> 0:17:28.800 that score, and then all of a sudden, I get 0:17:28.800 --> 0:17:31.600 a text from my buddy Ray and he goes, oh 0:17:31.640 --> 0:17:34.320 my god, Bengals, and I'll tell you this is the 0:17:34.359 --> 0:17:39.399 God's honest truth. I thought that something about my phone 0:17:39.560 --> 0:17:42.120 was glitchy and that I was getting a text from 0:17:42.160 --> 0:17:45.240 him on delay because what he was texting me couldn't 0:17:45.280 --> 0:17:48.879 possibly make any sense at that moment because the last 0:17:48.920 --> 0:17:51.640 I had seen Miami was winning by twenty three points. 0:17:52.080 --> 0:17:54.440 So when he said, oh my god, Bengals, I thought, oh, 0:17:54.480 --> 0:17:56.000 there must have been something that happened early in the 0:17:56.040 --> 0:17:57.680 game and on win. I'm like, let me, let me 0:17:57.720 --> 0:18:00.320 check the score. I'm like, oh my god, Bengals. You know, 0:18:00.640 --> 0:18:03.919 like that's exactly what someone should text. Couldn't believe it, 0:18:04.320 --> 0:18:06.320 could not believe it. And then of course I don't 0:18:06.359 --> 0:18:08.879 know how you give up even on the last play 0:18:08.960 --> 0:18:11.639 there at the twenty three yard line, just line up 0:18:11.640 --> 0:18:13.800 at the goal line and don't let anybody catch the ball. 0:18:13.920 --> 0:18:15.480 They just let they just throw it. I'm ready at 0:18:15.480 --> 0:18:19.119 the goal and it is unbelievable. And also and also Gil, Yeah, 0:18:19.240 --> 0:18:22.719 the first touchdown, and I think this gets totally thrown 0:18:22.720 --> 0:18:25.720 out because of all the chaos the first touchdown. I'm 0:18:25.720 --> 0:18:29.480 still not sure the Bengals got pass catcher boy was 0:18:29.520 --> 0:18:34.720 actually in the end zone across the plane, but it didn't. No, 0:18:34.920 --> 0:18:37.439 I know, That's what I'm saying. Yeah, I don't like 0:18:37.680 --> 0:18:40.600 it gets thrown out because, oh who cares, They're still 0:18:40.760 --> 0:18:42.520 they still have to make the two and recover the 0:18:42.560 --> 0:18:44.440 on site kicking and score a touchdown and make another 0:18:44.480 --> 0:18:46.800 two for this to really matter. I'm still not certain 0:18:46.800 --> 0:18:49.560 that I was a touchdown. Um, so it was really 0:18:49.880 --> 0:18:52.240 Todd suffered the worst speed I think I've ever seen. 0:18:52.400 --> 0:18:54.960 Really did. Todd brings up something else though, when he said, like, 0:18:55.080 --> 0:18:58.160 just just put all your men back Miami actually did. 0:18:58.600 --> 0:19:01.040 When When when since Sinnet he got to the twenty 0:19:01.080 --> 0:19:03.040 five yard line, they recover the onside kick, they get 0:19:03.119 --> 0:19:05.600 to the twenty five yard line, there's four seconds left, 0:19:05.760 --> 0:19:08.720 four seconds left, they got one play and Miami actually 0:19:08.800 --> 0:19:11.719 dropped eight defenders back to the goal line, and Tyler 0:19:11.760 --> 0:19:14.280 Eiffort still goes over two of them and and catches 0:19:14.320 --> 0:19:17.280 the ball, and then of course Dalton can't find anybody 0:19:17.280 --> 0:19:19.000 in the end zone on the two point conversion and 0:19:19.040 --> 0:19:21.800 he runs it in scrambles it to the corner. So 0:19:22.840 --> 0:19:25.359 that was you know, we talked about this on Guessing Lines, Jeff, 0:19:25.400 --> 0:19:28.320 where it's like they did drop eight back. Then there 0:19:28.320 --> 0:19:31.399 are situations like your Jets against the Steelers, and the 0:19:31.400 --> 0:19:33.199 Steelers we've seen them do this earlier in the year 0:19:33.240 --> 0:19:36.320 against the against the Dolphins, they do late first half 0:19:36.440 --> 0:19:40.080 Jedi mind tricks on the opponent. The Jets made no sense, 0:19:40.160 --> 0:19:42.119 didn't end up mattering because they ended up winning. But 0:19:42.160 --> 0:19:44.000 they're up ten to three on the Steelers late in 0:19:44.000 --> 0:19:47.080 the first half, and Mason Rudolph's in the game at 0:19:47.080 --> 0:19:53.320 this point because they had benched Devlin Hodges the way 0:19:53.760 --> 0:19:56.200 none of the Jets were the Jets blitz they put 0:19:56.240 --> 0:19:58.480 they put their corners on an island and the first 0:19:58.520 --> 0:20:02.000 one almost was a touchdown and like it just barely 0:20:02.040 --> 0:20:04.600 didn't connect. And then the Jets were like, instead of 0:20:04.680 --> 0:20:06.720 learning their lesson on the next play, they're like, yeah, 0:20:06.800 --> 0:20:10.119 let's do that again. The top of it. All the 0:20:10.320 --> 0:20:12.840 all the defenders have to do is tackle the receivers 0:20:13.200 --> 0:20:16.119 and it's a it's a five yard holding penalty and 0:20:16.160 --> 0:20:17.800 they have to and then Steelers have to kick the 0:20:17.800 --> 0:20:20.040 field goal. These coaches at the end of the first 0:20:20.040 --> 0:20:22.920 half don't understand that if the other teams at like, 0:20:23.080 --> 0:20:25.400 you know, further back than the ten yard line, all 0:20:25.440 --> 0:20:28.080