1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:04,000 Speaker 1: It's the favorite podcast presented by FanDuel. It's NFL playoff time, 2 00:00:04,000 --> 00:00:05,800 Speaker 1: and there's no better place to get in on the 3 00:00:05,840 --> 00:00:08,680 Speaker 1: action than FanDuel. I love betting with fandul because they're 4 00:00:08,680 --> 00:00:10,719 Speaker 1: app is safe, secure and easy to use, and because 5 00:00:10,760 --> 00:00:14,800 Speaker 1: they're offering exclusive offers, boosts and more all month long. 6 00:00:15,200 --> 00:00:18,360 Speaker 1: And when I win with FanDuel, I get paid fast. Plus. 7 00:00:18,400 --> 00:00:22,400 Speaker 1: FanDuel is now live in Ohio, so use promo code 8 00:00:22,400 --> 00:00:25,720 Speaker 1: favorites and download the FanDuel app today to start making 9 00:00:25,800 --> 00:00:28,840 Speaker 1: every moment more. 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In Louisiana, visit m D 19 00:00:59,520 --> 00:01:03,000 Speaker 1: Gambling Help dot Org in Maryland one eight seven seven 20 00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:06,000 Speaker 1: eight Hope and Why, or text Hope and Why four 21 00:01:06,080 --> 00:01:08,920 Speaker 1: six seven, three six nine in New York, one five 22 00:01:08,959 --> 00:01:11,360 Speaker 1: to two four seven zero zero in Wyoming, or visit 23 00:01:11,520 --> 00:01:22,720 Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome 24 00:01:22,920 --> 00:01:27,000 Speaker 1: to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. 25 00:01:27,080 --> 00:01:32,000 Speaker 1: I am Chad Moman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. 26 00:01:32,720 --> 00:01:35,640 Speaker 1: It is Thursday when we are recording. We are live 27 00:01:35,680 --> 00:01:39,600 Speaker 1: on app. Welcome to those listeners. I am joined as 28 00:01:39,640 --> 00:01:43,759 Speaker 1: I am every episode by my co host, my companion, 29 00:01:43,880 --> 00:01:53,160 Speaker 1: my bff, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon, 30 00:01:53,480 --> 00:01:57,880 Speaker 1: we just got to spend lovely few days together in 31 00:01:57,920 --> 00:02:00,320 Speaker 1: New York. The last podcast we recorded live in our 32 00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:05,880 Speaker 1: new Action Network studio. Now we were both back home 33 00:02:06,920 --> 00:02:10,640 Speaker 1: getting ready to light it up. I don't know about you, Chad, 34 00:02:10,680 --> 00:02:12,519 Speaker 1: but I'm of those people that I think it's because 35 00:02:12,520 --> 00:02:15,480 Speaker 1: I've seen so many movies. The main reason I hate 36 00:02:15,480 --> 00:02:17,160 Speaker 1: going to New York. I swear every time I go there, 37 00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:19,519 Speaker 1: the zombie Apocalypse is gonna happen, or either the Aliens 38 00:02:19,520 --> 00:02:21,360 Speaker 1: are gonna land and I'm gonna be stuck in a 39 00:02:21,440 --> 00:02:24,600 Speaker 1: city with nine million people in no way out and 40 00:02:25,480 --> 00:02:27,320 Speaker 1: luckily that didnt happen. Cheat I got a little cold, 41 00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:29,400 Speaker 1: that's the only thing negative. But the rest of the trip, 42 00:02:29,919 --> 00:02:32,560 Speaker 1: he said, Chad was a good time. It was funny 43 00:02:32,600 --> 00:02:35,480 Speaker 1: around the action, people talking football. But I'm not gonna 44 00:02:35,520 --> 00:02:36,440 Speaker 1: lie to you. As soon as I got on that 45 00:02:36,480 --> 00:02:38,919 Speaker 1: train and got out of the city, I was just like, ah, 46 00:02:39,080 --> 00:02:42,440 Speaker 1: I survived. I survived at New York City just because 47 00:02:42,480 --> 00:02:44,120 Speaker 1: it does cheer you up and spit you out if 48 00:02:44,120 --> 00:02:46,960 Speaker 1: you're just working NonStop. But it was one of those 49 00:02:46,960 --> 00:02:50,080 Speaker 1: where there is a definite vibe to the city. I 50 00:02:50,120 --> 00:02:51,760 Speaker 1: think you mean you both agree on that if you've 51 00:02:51,800 --> 00:02:54,920 Speaker 1: never been in New York City, not that it makes 52 00:02:54,960 --> 00:02:56,480 Speaker 1: you feel a certain way, but it kind of does, 53 00:02:56,600 --> 00:02:59,920 Speaker 1: like it makes you feel more alive and more connect 54 00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:01,400 Speaker 1: and it's just so many people, and it's one of 55 00:03:01,440 --> 00:03:04,080 Speaker 1: those where if you're not there, you appreciate New York City, 56 00:03:04,160 --> 00:03:05,639 Speaker 1: but if you're there for more than four days, it 57 00:03:05,639 --> 00:03:08,520 Speaker 1: starts getting old pretty quick. So uh, definitely enjoyed our 58 00:03:08,560 --> 00:03:12,320 Speaker 1: time together. Brother. That's a really interesting perspective. I feel 59 00:03:12,320 --> 00:03:17,119 Speaker 1: all those same things as someone who lived in Manhattan 60 00:03:17,280 --> 00:03:21,160 Speaker 1: for twelve years and lived just outside the city for 61 00:03:21,240 --> 00:03:26,239 Speaker 1: six years and commuted into the city on a regular basis. Um, 62 00:03:26,280 --> 00:03:28,280 Speaker 1: when I lived in the city and we were about 63 00:03:28,320 --> 00:03:33,359 Speaker 1: to move out, this is this is you know, dark thoughts. 64 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:35,640 Speaker 1: But we were living on the Upper east Side. I 65 00:03:35,680 --> 00:03:38,000 Speaker 1: would take the six train from the Upper east Side 66 00:03:38,400 --> 00:03:40,840 Speaker 1: to thirty four Street to go to my office at ESPN, 67 00:03:40,840 --> 00:03:45,040 Speaker 1: the magazine. So it's only six stops on the subway. Um. 68 00:03:45,080 --> 00:03:47,760 Speaker 1: In the last thirty days this was two thousand five, 69 00:03:47,800 --> 00:03:51,480 Speaker 1: and the last thirty days before we moved from Manhattan 70 00:03:51,520 --> 00:03:54,520 Speaker 1: to Montclair, New Jersey. We had a three year old 71 00:03:54,520 --> 00:03:59,800 Speaker 1: at the time. I would say to myself, please let 72 00:03:59,800 --> 00:04:02,440 Speaker 1: this not be the day where the city blows up, 73 00:04:02,480 --> 00:04:05,080 Speaker 1: and don't forget this is four years after nine eleven. 74 00:04:05,120 --> 00:04:07,440 Speaker 1: So like you were always sort of feeling a little 75 00:04:07,440 --> 00:04:10,880 Speaker 1: bit of that anxiety. And it's funny my wife and 76 00:04:10,880 --> 00:04:13,520 Speaker 1: I now were old and we live in Connecticut, and 77 00:04:14,000 --> 00:04:17,600 Speaker 1: like our kids are nineteen in college and sixteen and 78 00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:19,360 Speaker 1: two and a half years away from leaving, and so 79 00:04:19,400 --> 00:04:22,159 Speaker 1: we think, like, she's from Manhattan, she's from New York, right, 80 00:04:22,200 --> 00:04:24,200 Speaker 1: she grew up in Staten Island. She loves the city, 81 00:04:24,720 --> 00:04:28,760 Speaker 1: and and we always think when we go to visit, 82 00:04:28,960 --> 00:04:30,600 Speaker 1: we want to move back here, we want to get 83 00:04:30,640 --> 00:04:34,080 Speaker 1: an apartment here. Whatever, we always settle on note which 84 00:04:34,120 --> 00:04:37,480 Speaker 1: is odd. First for my wife, who is New York 85 00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:41,560 Speaker 1: to the core and she's an architect, Like she went 86 00:04:41,600 --> 00:04:44,120 Speaker 1: to she went to grad school in the city. She 87 00:04:44,120 --> 00:04:47,479 Speaker 1: went to Parsons like where we were where you know, 88 00:04:47,520 --> 00:04:50,520 Speaker 1: I stayed in Union Square, Like I was a block 89 00:04:50,600 --> 00:04:53,279 Speaker 1: from where she went to grad school. Um, so I 90 00:04:53,320 --> 00:04:58,120 Speaker 1: know that area. Well, we were always down there, and I, Um, 91 00:04:58,240 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 1: we now think like we couldn't live here. We would 92 00:05:01,480 --> 00:05:05,240 Speaker 1: be too afraid, Like if the apocalypse came, how wouldn't 93 00:05:05,279 --> 00:05:09,560 Speaker 1: we get out? Yeah, I thought, But I also I thought, 94 00:05:09,760 --> 00:05:11,760 Speaker 1: not that things change because of code. I lived in 95 00:05:11,760 --> 00:05:13,240 Speaker 1: the city when I used to worked back in the day, 96 00:05:13,240 --> 00:05:14,840 Speaker 1: and I used to hate it because just driving the 97 00:05:14,839 --> 00:05:18,159 Speaker 1: city is really tough. Um. The biggest change I noticed 98 00:05:18,160 --> 00:05:21,000 Speaker 1: since COVID, though, is because we had early mornings for work. 99 00:05:21,000 --> 00:05:23,160 Speaker 1: We're getting up at six seven in the morning. How 100 00:05:23,240 --> 00:05:26,040 Speaker 1: empty the streets were were it used to be back 101 00:05:26,040 --> 00:05:27,440 Speaker 1: in the day, there was always something going on. It 102 00:05:27,480 --> 00:05:29,560 Speaker 1: didn't matter if it was six or seven am. To 103 00:05:29,600 --> 00:05:32,039 Speaker 1: other people at seven six pm, right, that's just doesn't 104 00:05:32,080 --> 00:05:35,520 Speaker 1: matter that it's that time. I couldn't believe early quiet. 105 00:05:35,520 --> 00:05:37,479 Speaker 1: It was when you're getting up early in the morning, 106 00:05:37,480 --> 00:05:39,039 Speaker 1: which I see is the coolest time. Do you see 107 00:05:39,080 --> 00:05:41,640 Speaker 1: the city if you're an earlier riser. That's my recommendation 108 00:05:41,640 --> 00:05:44,960 Speaker 1: from New York City. I I'm not a big jogger, 109 00:05:45,040 --> 00:05:48,800 Speaker 1: but as you know, I'm an obsessive exerciser, and that 110 00:05:49,040 --> 00:05:51,440 Speaker 1: you're gonna live forever. I'm gonna live forever. The only 111 00:05:51,480 --> 00:05:53,320 Speaker 1: time I go for runs is in New York because 112 00:05:53,320 --> 00:05:55,040 Speaker 1: I go really early in the morning when it's empty, 113 00:05:55,040 --> 00:05:58,800 Speaker 1: and it's fantastic. Yeah, that's true, and you're not wrong. 114 00:05:58,880 --> 00:06:00,839 Speaker 1: Like you can walk around New York and when things 115 00:06:00,839 --> 00:06:02,960 Speaker 1: are going well and we had a great weekend, it 116 00:06:03,000 --> 00:06:06,360 Speaker 1: was super fun. You can feel invincible, you can feel 117 00:06:06,360 --> 00:06:08,400 Speaker 1: the energy. You can feel like I'm making it in 118 00:06:08,440 --> 00:06:11,039 Speaker 1: New York City. And then when it's going bad, like 119 00:06:11,080 --> 00:06:12,760 Speaker 1: when things are negative, it eats of you because you 120 00:06:12,800 --> 00:06:15,440 Speaker 1: just see all the negativeness of New York City, like 121 00:06:15,480 --> 00:06:18,480 Speaker 1: guys being on the corner. There's trash everywhere. It's the 122 00:06:18,520 --> 00:06:20,520 Speaker 1: smell of the air. But like Chatty said, when you're 123 00:06:20,520 --> 00:06:23,719 Speaker 1: feeling good air, it's crisp, it's beautiful, the lights, everything 124 00:06:24,080 --> 00:06:28,600 Speaker 1: it was. Uh so it was a great weekend. Matt 125 00:06:28,640 --> 00:06:32,719 Speaker 1: Mitchell was there obviously, Yeah, he was an astounding presence. 126 00:06:33,040 --> 00:06:37,000 Speaker 1: Um watching Matt Mitchell as we discussed suffer that that 127 00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:42,320 Speaker 1: that Cowboys books under bet all right, So Tuesday we 128 00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:46,720 Speaker 1: decided Simon says it was Niners Dallas under forty six 129 00:06:46,720 --> 00:06:49,599 Speaker 1: and a half. I believe, um Foxhel I left my 130 00:06:49,640 --> 00:06:51,279 Speaker 1: notes in New York, so I'm trying to do this 131 00:06:51,279 --> 00:06:53,880 Speaker 1: from memory. Foxhole was Bills minus four and a half. 132 00:06:53,960 --> 00:06:57,920 Speaker 1: Exact decision was Chief Jags under the time you could 133 00:06:57,920 --> 00:06:59,680 Speaker 1: get it at fifty two or fifty three. It's now 134 00:06:59,680 --> 00:07:04,120 Speaker 1: settle the fifty three. Um, we're gonna come up with 135 00:07:04,120 --> 00:07:05,760 Speaker 1: the big balls. We're gonna talk a little bit more 136 00:07:05,800 --> 00:07:07,680 Speaker 1: in depth now that lines have been moving and we've 137 00:07:07,680 --> 00:07:12,840 Speaker 1: been seeing more stuff about sides and totals. Before we 138 00:07:12,880 --> 00:07:16,400 Speaker 1: get to any of that, let's do some Oh wait, 139 00:07:16,880 --> 00:07:20,480 Speaker 1: I do want to tell people that if you're listening 140 00:07:20,520 --> 00:07:24,120 Speaker 1: to the podcast right now, if you subscribe to the 141 00:07:24,760 --> 00:07:26,440 Speaker 1: we know we've gotten a lot of complaints this year 142 00:07:26,480 --> 00:07:30,080 Speaker 1: about not being able to access the podcast until really 143 00:07:30,160 --> 00:07:35,200 Speaker 1: late at night, even though we record it in the afternoons. UM, 144 00:07:35,280 --> 00:07:38,640 Speaker 1: there's been a change in programming. If you subscribe directly 145 00:07:38,720 --> 00:07:42,640 Speaker 1: to the Favorites to subscribe directly to the Favorite feed, 146 00:07:43,280 --> 00:07:46,960 Speaker 1: you'll be able to get the podcast late afternoon of 147 00:07:47,000 --> 00:07:50,440 Speaker 1: the day, recorded probably five six instead of having to 148 00:07:50,480 --> 00:07:53,640 Speaker 1: wait until eleven or twelve at night. UM, subscribe directly 149 00:07:53,680 --> 00:07:56,280 Speaker 1: to the Favorites and you'll get the podcast, you know, 150 00:07:56,360 --> 00:07:58,920 Speaker 1: five six, seven hours early. So we're doing that for 151 00:07:59,160 --> 00:08:01,960 Speaker 1: all the playoffs on Yeah, is that right, Matt Mitchell? 152 00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:06,400 Speaker 1: Every episode moving forward will be available right about five 153 00:08:06,520 --> 00:08:10,160 Speaker 1: thirty pm Eastern time if you subscribe to the Favorites feed. 154 00:08:10,360 --> 00:08:13,040 Speaker 1: You've got to subscribe to the Favorite feed before we 155 00:08:13,040 --> 00:08:20,880 Speaker 1: get to anything else. Let's get too sharp. Call hello, 156 00:08:21,120 --> 00:08:31,160 Speaker 1: who's there? I'm talking telephone right. Somebody said, I'm interested 157 00:08:31,160 --> 00:08:34,240 Speaker 1: in this one man. Every game feel, every side and 158 00:08:34,320 --> 00:08:37,080 Speaker 1: every every total feels like it could have a strong opinion. 159 00:08:37,600 --> 00:08:39,920 Speaker 1: We were talking before we got in the air. Giants 160 00:08:39,920 --> 00:08:43,040 Speaker 1: Eagles very much feels that way. But tell me who 161 00:08:43,040 --> 00:08:45,320 Speaker 1: we've been, who's been calling us about what? Let's start 162 00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:46,920 Speaker 1: off right off with the bad one, because to me, 163 00:08:46,960 --> 00:08:51,840 Speaker 1: that's that's the biggest pro verse Pro game this this week, 164 00:08:51,920 --> 00:08:54,880 Speaker 1: is that Giants Eagles game where you have pros who 165 00:08:54,920 --> 00:08:57,800 Speaker 1: have made a lot of money back in this Giant's team. 166 00:08:57,800 --> 00:08:59,719 Speaker 1: It's a team they believed in the summer. It's the 167 00:08:59,800 --> 00:09:03,400 Speaker 1: co staff, they believe in the summer. They hit gold, 168 00:09:03,480 --> 00:09:07,680 Speaker 1: they be They bet them all year, um, even last week. 169 00:09:08,480 --> 00:09:09,920 Speaker 1: Not that it was one of the biggest bets. We 170 00:09:10,000 --> 00:09:12,080 Speaker 1: just knew. Guys were staunching their ways where it's like, Okay, 171 00:09:12,080 --> 00:09:15,160 Speaker 1: you're catching three against an in Fury Vikings team, this 172 00:09:15,200 --> 00:09:16,520 Speaker 1: is the spot to take it. They didn't care. That 173 00:09:16,600 --> 00:09:19,400 Speaker 1: was Daniel Jones right first career starting the playoffs. So, 174 00:09:20,200 --> 00:09:22,960 Speaker 1: I mean Chad talked to that, Like I my first 175 00:09:23,120 --> 00:09:25,720 Speaker 1: instincts just says a better was to take that Giant 176 00:09:25,760 --> 00:09:28,480 Speaker 1: seven seven and a a half in the line opened um, 177 00:09:28,520 --> 00:09:30,320 Speaker 1: and I just knew something was a little off about it. 178 00:09:30,520 --> 00:09:32,360 Speaker 1: Died more into the numbers, and obviously there's a huge 179 00:09:32,360 --> 00:09:34,880 Speaker 1: advantage towards this Eagles team, which we'll talk about we 180 00:09:34,880 --> 00:09:37,760 Speaker 1: start talking about that game. But just from the pro aspect, 181 00:09:38,960 --> 00:09:41,640 Speaker 1: I completely got there coming from Chad. I mean, Evan 182 00:09:41,640 --> 00:09:44,040 Speaker 1: Abrams puts out that's something I need to readtweet now. 183 00:09:44,160 --> 00:09:45,880 Speaker 1: I'll put it out when we put the show out. 184 00:09:45,920 --> 00:09:48,520 Speaker 1: It's just a trend article about all the trends this week. 185 00:09:49,640 --> 00:09:51,120 Speaker 1: I mean, well, maybe you have some red down have 186 00:09:51,160 --> 00:09:55,920 Speaker 1: covered down all these trends favored this Giants team. So yeah, 187 00:09:56,000 --> 00:09:58,520 Speaker 1: a lot of pro bettors. I know they throw their 188 00:09:58,559 --> 00:10:00,960 Speaker 1: model out because you already talked about your modele. It's 189 00:10:01,000 --> 00:10:03,640 Speaker 1: not as valuable as during the regular season come playoff time, 190 00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:06,280 Speaker 1: because the playoffs it's just a different beast. I used 191 00:10:06,320 --> 00:10:07,880 Speaker 1: to talk about the time when Brady was at such 192 00:10:07,880 --> 00:10:10,960 Speaker 1: an elite level. My model never caught up to Tom Brady. 193 00:10:11,040 --> 00:10:12,839 Speaker 1: It was one of those where it couldn't take into 194 00:10:12,880 --> 00:10:15,679 Speaker 1: account what he does and what makes him so special, 195 00:10:15,720 --> 00:10:18,800 Speaker 1: which is clutch us. There's no like we have luck rankings. 196 00:10:18,840 --> 00:10:20,920 Speaker 1: I don't have a clutch ranking that doesn't that doesn't 197 00:10:20,920 --> 00:10:22,520 Speaker 1: exist for me. That's something I always had a factor 198 00:10:22,559 --> 00:10:25,840 Speaker 1: in myself. So I don't always fade my model, but 199 00:10:25,920 --> 00:10:28,280 Speaker 1: I do in the playoffs where I got a bunch 200 00:10:28,280 --> 00:10:30,360 Speaker 1: of guys are lined up on one side and my 201 00:10:30,360 --> 00:10:32,400 Speaker 1: model just seems off. I'll agree with these guys because 202 00:10:32,400 --> 00:10:34,120 Speaker 1: they're just smarter than me. I know that, like they 203 00:10:34,160 --> 00:10:36,640 Speaker 1: is no more about football than I do. This is 204 00:10:36,679 --> 00:10:39,080 Speaker 1: one of those inst instances like a couple of really 205 00:10:39,120 --> 00:10:41,640 Speaker 1: smart groups have come in on the Eagles and that's 206 00:10:41,640 --> 00:10:43,600 Speaker 1: what driving this number rough. And I even texted Chat 207 00:10:43,640 --> 00:10:46,400 Speaker 1: like we talked yesterday. I didn't get it. I thought 208 00:10:46,400 --> 00:10:48,600 Speaker 1: by today's show we'd have a seven. I really did, 209 00:10:49,000 --> 00:10:51,040 Speaker 1: because I know how many smart people are on the Giants, 210 00:10:51,400 --> 00:10:53,839 Speaker 1: uh sharp wise, I know how much the public loves it, 211 00:10:53,920 --> 00:10:57,160 Speaker 1: like this is a public darling in this line. So yeah, 212 00:10:57,200 --> 00:10:59,839 Speaker 1: well we'll talk about that game. But if people it's 213 00:10:59,840 --> 00:11:01,640 Speaker 1: just like the Seahawks last week, they want to know 214 00:11:01,880 --> 00:11:03,640 Speaker 1: me and chat. We were on the fourt inands last week. 215 00:11:04,000 --> 00:11:06,360 Speaker 1: Most of the pros were on the Seahawks. It's the 216 00:11:06,400 --> 00:11:09,440 Speaker 1: same exact situation, and you're catching over seven a half 217 00:11:09,480 --> 00:11:13,240 Speaker 1: on a divisional dog. Um they already got swept during 218 00:11:13,240 --> 00:11:15,680 Speaker 1: the regular season, which again trends back up taking the 219 00:11:15,720 --> 00:11:18,520 Speaker 1: Giants in the spot, um being a divisional dog when 220 00:11:18,600 --> 00:11:21,760 Speaker 1: the touchdown that got swept in the regular season. So 221 00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:25,360 Speaker 1: n chead, it's it's one of those where I knew 222 00:11:25,400 --> 00:11:27,800 Speaker 1: we're gonna get calls about it, and it's one of 223 00:11:27,840 --> 00:11:30,760 Speaker 1: those that I I'm trying as hard as I cannot 224 00:11:30,800 --> 00:11:32,280 Speaker 1: to make it one of my bigger bets of the playoffs, 225 00:11:32,280 --> 00:11:34,360 Speaker 1: because I just love the spot. The more I look 226 00:11:34,400 --> 00:11:37,800 Speaker 1: at this Eagles team, they're just crazy under value for 227 00:11:37,840 --> 00:11:40,280 Speaker 1: how good their offensive scheme is and their offensive line 228 00:11:40,320 --> 00:11:42,880 Speaker 1: is going against the Giants defense that is playing way 229 00:11:42,920 --> 00:11:44,960 Speaker 1: above its head. But they're about to run into what 230 00:11:45,080 --> 00:11:48,160 Speaker 1: I view was a juggernaut. So sharp calls start off 231 00:11:48,200 --> 00:11:50,319 Speaker 1: right with that one. Every other one we're kind of back. 232 00:11:50,440 --> 00:11:53,599 Speaker 1: Yet everyone likes our picks. Honestly, the pros are on 233 00:11:53,640 --> 00:11:56,040 Speaker 1: the Jaguars with us no shock that they have the 234 00:11:56,040 --> 00:11:57,600 Speaker 1: exact They can look at the xact same stuff we're 235 00:11:57,600 --> 00:12:00,520 Speaker 1: looking at. Of Jaguars will always been about the Chiefs 236 00:12:00,520 --> 00:12:03,160 Speaker 1: will always be overvalid by the public. The biggest thing 237 00:12:03,200 --> 00:12:05,600 Speaker 1: is because everyone of their grandma's gonna tease this Chiefs 238 00:12:05,600 --> 00:12:07,720 Speaker 1: team like them and the Eagles. That two teams cheeser 239 00:12:07,800 --> 00:12:09,839 Speaker 1: that's just gonna be there. So this Nember should be 240 00:12:09,880 --> 00:12:12,280 Speaker 1: closer to seven and a half. They're they're bumping eight 241 00:12:12,280 --> 00:12:14,440 Speaker 1: a half just to protect this against teasers. It's a 242 00:12:14,440 --> 00:12:16,840 Speaker 1: two and a half in a teaser. We've seen some 243 00:12:16,880 --> 00:12:19,440 Speaker 1: books touch nine, so obviously there are some pros coming 244 00:12:19,440 --> 00:12:22,439 Speaker 1: in on this Chiefs team. If you didn't graduate and 245 00:12:22,480 --> 00:12:25,840 Speaker 1: a half, which I I would just be safe. I 246 00:12:25,840 --> 00:12:27,480 Speaker 1: do think it might be able to touch nine by 247 00:12:27,520 --> 00:12:30,120 Speaker 1: this weekend, just because I do think the public will 248 00:12:30,120 --> 00:12:32,520 Speaker 1: come in heavy on the Chiefs team. It's just it's 249 00:12:32,559 --> 00:12:34,720 Speaker 1: not that I feel like it's looking very chalky this 250 00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:37,599 Speaker 1: uh the next this round, but it does feel that 251 00:12:37,640 --> 00:12:39,280 Speaker 1: way a little bit where they f C. I mean, 252 00:12:39,360 --> 00:12:40,960 Speaker 1: Chad we already talked about me and they were both 253 00:12:41,000 --> 00:12:43,920 Speaker 1: on the bills. We like the Jacks. Obviously I'm gonna 254 00:12:43,960 --> 00:12:46,400 Speaker 1: take the Jags money line as well, just because a 255 00:12:46,480 --> 00:12:48,720 Speaker 1: historical data backs up in this divisional round. If you 256 00:12:48,800 --> 00:12:51,520 Speaker 1: take like anyone taking the Giants, you have to throw 257 00:12:51,559 --> 00:12:53,240 Speaker 1: someone the money line. If you're back in the dog, 258 00:12:53,720 --> 00:12:55,920 Speaker 1: you might as well throw some division on the money 259 00:12:55,960 --> 00:12:58,600 Speaker 1: line because the return on investment of that I don't 260 00:12:58,600 --> 00:12:59,839 Speaker 1: even know. I think it was the last twenty years 261 00:12:59,880 --> 00:13:02,319 Speaker 1: I saw on thatent labs. It was like, you bet 262 00:13:02,320 --> 00:13:05,080 Speaker 1: a hunter up twenty two k on these divisional dogs 263 00:13:05,080 --> 00:13:09,080 Speaker 1: taking this number. So that's one of those where regular season, right, 264 00:13:09,120 --> 00:13:10,960 Speaker 1: me and Chad talked about we start weeding off taking 265 00:13:11,000 --> 00:13:13,200 Speaker 1: big putting big money on underdogs money lines just because 266 00:13:13,200 --> 00:13:15,559 Speaker 1: it wasn't hitting playoffs. You kind of throw that out. 267 00:13:15,559 --> 00:13:17,440 Speaker 1: You're looking at the trends. You don't really worry about 268 00:13:17,480 --> 00:13:19,520 Speaker 1: what happened during the regular season with that stuff. So 269 00:13:20,120 --> 00:13:21,959 Speaker 1: um again, if you like the Jags like we do, 270 00:13:22,200 --> 00:13:25,680 Speaker 1: taking the number, taking the money line, um, let me 271 00:13:26,040 --> 00:13:29,800 Speaker 1: let me speak to one trend um since you brought 272 00:13:29,880 --> 00:13:31,960 Speaker 1: up the trends, and it applies to both the Jags 273 00:13:32,520 --> 00:13:37,800 Speaker 1: and the Giants. Number one seeds and one against the 274 00:13:37,840 --> 00:13:41,000 Speaker 1: spread the past twenty years in this round when those 275 00:13:41,000 --> 00:13:46,839 Speaker 1: seeds are favored by less than ten points eight and 276 00:13:46,960 --> 00:13:51,440 Speaker 1: one against the spread. So we got big favorites in 277 00:13:51,440 --> 00:13:54,360 Speaker 1: the Eagles, and we got big favorites in the Chiefs, 278 00:13:55,000 --> 00:13:58,840 Speaker 1: and it's very possible we may be split. And that's 279 00:13:58,840 --> 00:14:01,679 Speaker 1: teams with above and eight percent winning percentage, right, no, no, 280 00:14:01,760 --> 00:14:04,960 Speaker 1: this is just it, okay. And so it's even worse too, 281 00:14:05,040 --> 00:14:08,200 Speaker 1: teams above teams with above winning percentage, which would be 282 00:14:08,640 --> 00:14:13,600 Speaker 1: the forty niners, the Bills, um, the Eagles and the Chiefs. 283 00:14:13,640 --> 00:14:16,079 Speaker 1: It's even worse where it's like it's the same thing. 284 00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:19,640 Speaker 1: It's like those favorites covered and when they're less than 285 00:14:19,640 --> 00:14:24,080 Speaker 1: ten point favorite. So that's one of those like I'll 286 00:14:24,120 --> 00:14:27,520 Speaker 1: keep it moving that the sharp calls were the Cowboys. 287 00:14:27,520 --> 00:14:28,920 Speaker 1: I didn't want to do it. I want to be 288 00:14:29,040 --> 00:14:31,560 Speaker 1: I want to be on the forty Niners. I just 289 00:14:31,800 --> 00:14:34,120 Speaker 1: I just know really smart guys, really smart money. So 290 00:14:34,120 --> 00:14:36,000 Speaker 1: that's the game will break down that are on the Cowboys, 291 00:14:36,000 --> 00:14:38,160 Speaker 1: So that's another one will break down. And same with 292 00:14:38,200 --> 00:14:40,120 Speaker 1: the Bills. We gave it out of four four and 293 00:14:40,120 --> 00:14:42,560 Speaker 1: a half. You've seen it, you've seen him steam up, 294 00:14:42,560 --> 00:14:43,760 Speaker 1: and no out of five five and a half. If 295 00:14:43,760 --> 00:14:47,440 Speaker 1: you're a Sinci backer, it's a dead zone number. Where 296 00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:49,160 Speaker 1: the Bills it's not. If you're a Bill's backer, you 297 00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:50,520 Speaker 1: still want to grab the five ma half just in 298 00:14:50,520 --> 00:14:52,800 Speaker 1: case it does hit that six, which means you had 299 00:14:52,800 --> 00:14:55,560 Speaker 1: to talk all the time. That's six. It hits at 300 00:14:55,720 --> 00:14:57,960 Speaker 1: whatever said, it's only just a one percent more chance 301 00:14:58,000 --> 00:15:00,440 Speaker 1: than hitting the five. At the five, that's still a 302 00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:03,040 Speaker 1: big deal long term betting. So to me, five and 303 00:15:03,040 --> 00:15:05,000 Speaker 1: a half has become a very key number. Keep being 304 00:15:05,040 --> 00:15:07,360 Speaker 1: under the six. Um, we talk all the time, the 305 00:15:07,400 --> 00:15:10,240 Speaker 1: extra points two point conversion. Six just lands at a 306 00:15:10,320 --> 00:15:12,520 Speaker 1: higher rate than they used to. So to me, if 307 00:15:12,520 --> 00:15:15,200 Speaker 1: you're a Bill's backer, yeah, it would suck if it 308 00:15:15,280 --> 00:15:17,040 Speaker 1: drops down a four and a before kickoff. No one 309 00:15:17,080 --> 00:15:19,240 Speaker 1: can predict that. I grabbed the five half just in 310 00:15:19,240 --> 00:15:22,280 Speaker 1: case it does hit the six, where once hit the six, 311 00:15:22,360 --> 00:15:25,480 Speaker 1: you're you're kind of just leaving yourself up into a push, 312 00:15:25,480 --> 00:15:28,600 Speaker 1: which I hate so um to me, the pros they 313 00:15:28,600 --> 00:15:30,440 Speaker 1: already grabbed it. I don't really think it might go 314 00:15:30,520 --> 00:15:33,000 Speaker 1: up that much because most sharp guys I talked to 315 00:15:33,040 --> 00:15:34,720 Speaker 1: they grabbed the four. They grabbed the four and a half. 316 00:15:35,200 --> 00:15:36,840 Speaker 1: And what they had done is they grabbed since he 317 00:15:36,880 --> 00:15:38,240 Speaker 1: early in the week at six and a half, so 318 00:15:38,280 --> 00:15:40,640 Speaker 1: they were like, Okay, I'll try to play a middle now. 319 00:15:40,720 --> 00:15:42,280 Speaker 1: It seems like the Bills will be one of their 320 00:15:42,280 --> 00:15:45,120 Speaker 1: bigger bets. I think everyone's looking at the model and 321 00:15:45,160 --> 00:15:48,560 Speaker 1: seeing how big of big of a deal these injuries are. Um, 322 00:15:48,680 --> 00:15:51,120 Speaker 1: I believe it's both tackles and and a guard out 323 00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:53,480 Speaker 1: for since I'm not positive it could be their center, 324 00:15:53,960 --> 00:15:56,320 Speaker 1: but I believe it's the guard that got injured last week. 325 00:15:56,360 --> 00:16:00,800 Speaker 1: So we we talk all the time. I'mportant offensive line 326 00:16:00,840 --> 00:16:04,320 Speaker 1: is it's it's so it's so important come playoff time 327 00:16:04,680 --> 00:16:07,720 Speaker 1: scheme wise too. So uh yeah, excited to break down 328 00:16:07,760 --> 00:16:11,120 Speaker 1: these four games. I was just I knew we were 329 00:16:11,160 --> 00:16:13,000 Speaker 1: getting the same side of all the pros. I'm just 330 00:16:13,040 --> 00:16:16,360 Speaker 1: shocked that so many pros are on the giants where 331 00:16:17,040 --> 00:16:20,280 Speaker 1: it just I get it, all the trends, anything backs it, 332 00:16:20,360 --> 00:16:22,320 Speaker 1: but just I feel like even you like the spiky 333 00:16:22,400 --> 00:16:24,760 Speaker 1: sense everything's kicking up here, a little bit of this 334 00:16:24,840 --> 00:16:28,760 Speaker 1: is a a funky wonky number here. Well, it's it's 335 00:16:28,800 --> 00:16:33,880 Speaker 1: truly a um let's talk about that game to start. Uh, 336 00:16:34,040 --> 00:16:39,960 Speaker 1: it's truly a trends matchups game, right, Um, and like 337 00:16:40,840 --> 00:16:44,760 Speaker 1: it's it. I think Stucky. I listened to the Action 338 00:16:44,800 --> 00:16:49,320 Speaker 1: Network pod this morning, and you know, shout out to 339 00:16:49,720 --> 00:16:56,640 Speaker 1: both Raybon and Stucky who layered in ref stats galore 340 00:16:56,960 --> 00:17:05,440 Speaker 1: to start the podcast, which I love. Um, hockey, Uh, 341 00:17:05,480 --> 00:17:10,280 Speaker 1: there was nobody likes hockey and they love to talk 342 00:17:10,280 --> 00:17:13,320 Speaker 1: about They were talking about how hockey is the guy 343 00:17:13,359 --> 00:17:16,080 Speaker 1: who loves to be the villain and like call the 344 00:17:16,119 --> 00:17:23,160 Speaker 1: penalties that makes the home town fans rained down fire. Um, 345 00:17:23,200 --> 00:17:26,080 Speaker 1: so that was funny. But also I think stuck he 346 00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:30,680 Speaker 1: pointed out Jordan Davis and Jalen Hurts in the lineup. 347 00:17:31,280 --> 00:17:37,000 Speaker 1: The Eagles didn't lose this year, so we like this 348 00:17:37,119 --> 00:17:42,040 Speaker 1: is a trend play versus a a on the field matchup, play, 349 00:17:42,160 --> 00:17:49,080 Speaker 1: and in every way the Eagles should destroy the Giants 350 00:17:49,600 --> 00:17:53,119 Speaker 1: and then forget about trends. Like what you and I 351 00:17:53,200 --> 00:17:58,480 Speaker 1: talk about more than anything is public perception and on 352 00:17:58,560 --> 00:18:02,280 Speaker 1: the field matchup and where those two things meet. I 353 00:18:02,320 --> 00:18:05,240 Speaker 1: feel like the Giants are more of a public dog 354 00:18:05,800 --> 00:18:10,320 Speaker 1: than the Eagles are a public favorite. Um Because of 355 00:18:10,359 --> 00:18:12,080 Speaker 1: the way the Eagles played the last six weeks of 356 00:18:12,080 --> 00:18:15,600 Speaker 1: the year, with Jalen Hurts being injured and Gardner Minshew 357 00:18:15,640 --> 00:18:18,119 Speaker 1: playing and having a struggle to secure the number one seed, 358 00:18:18,520 --> 00:18:22,080 Speaker 1: people just think they didn't look right. It feels to 359 00:18:22,119 --> 00:18:24,639 Speaker 1: me like this is where you go against the trend 360 00:18:24,840 --> 00:18:27,000 Speaker 1: and you take the team that is better on the field. 361 00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:29,000 Speaker 1: I just waiting on that set. I'm just waiting on 362 00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:31,640 Speaker 1: the seven. And that's what's been pissing me off though chat. 363 00:18:31,760 --> 00:18:33,440 Speaker 1: It's like, why are they're not giving us the seven? 364 00:18:33,840 --> 00:18:37,040 Speaker 1: I don't get it. Like we joke all the time, 365 00:18:37,080 --> 00:18:39,560 Speaker 1: they're not your friends. They're not being nice giving given 366 00:18:39,640 --> 00:18:43,640 Speaker 1: that extra hook on the seven and a half. We'll 367 00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:45,840 Speaker 1: talk all the time, I like I do. It is 368 00:18:45,920 --> 00:18:47,440 Speaker 1: nice when you take when you line up a line 369 00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:49,199 Speaker 1: and you take a stand with the books right. It's 370 00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:51,040 Speaker 1: nice when the book needs the same side of you need, 371 00:18:51,040 --> 00:18:53,840 Speaker 1: Like we don't always findly bet the fade the public, 372 00:18:53,880 --> 00:18:56,159 Speaker 1: whatever you want to say, but we do look for 373 00:18:56,200 --> 00:18:58,879 Speaker 1: those opportunities of being on the same side as the book, 374 00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:02,560 Speaker 1: but Roy looking for the value. And like you just said, 375 00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:06,760 Speaker 1: the Eagles, the public just their public reception has just 376 00:19:06,840 --> 00:19:09,320 Speaker 1: been dreadful the last month, I mean since the Herrist injury. 377 00:19:09,400 --> 00:19:12,720 Speaker 1: Like you said, they want Owen two with minshow and 378 00:19:12,760 --> 00:19:15,520 Speaker 1: then they barely beat the backups of the Giants, and 379 00:19:15,760 --> 00:19:18,679 Speaker 1: the public do they understand the Eagles literally didn't run 380 00:19:18,680 --> 00:19:21,000 Speaker 1: an offense in that second half. No, they just see 381 00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:23,280 Speaker 1: the final score of well the back door and they 382 00:19:23,359 --> 00:19:25,560 Speaker 1: covered the number of the Giants against this Eagles team. 383 00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:28,440 Speaker 1: So I'm right there with you. I think this is 384 00:19:28,480 --> 00:19:31,959 Speaker 1: more of a matchup of you know, pro trend and betters, 385 00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:34,160 Speaker 1: guys who just simply bet trends and make a good 386 00:19:34,240 --> 00:19:37,600 Speaker 1: living betting trends because you can do it like there 387 00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:40,880 Speaker 1: there really is a science to the trend stuff. Obviously 388 00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:42,639 Speaker 1: we don't blindly bet it, but me chat like to 389 00:19:42,760 --> 00:19:44,280 Speaker 1: use it to line up with what we're trying to 390 00:19:44,359 --> 00:19:47,600 Speaker 1: bet against. Guys to do models like me where it's 391 00:19:47,640 --> 00:19:50,040 Speaker 1: like I feel like anyone that builds a model looks 392 00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:52,119 Speaker 1: at the numbers, it's like, well, it's gonna favorite this 393 00:19:52,200 --> 00:19:54,840 Speaker 1: ego side just because they are so good on the 394 00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:59,399 Speaker 1: defensive lot and the offensive line. But um, like boring 395 00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:01,440 Speaker 1: to other people. Favorite matchup in this game. It's not 396 00:20:02,119 --> 00:20:04,840 Speaker 1: say the offense versus Devense, whatever you wanna say. It's 397 00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:07,960 Speaker 1: literally Kelsey versus Dexter Lawrence, Like I can't wait to 398 00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:11,240 Speaker 1: see that matchup. Um to all pros versus each other 399 00:20:11,280 --> 00:20:13,119 Speaker 1: in that D line and offensive line for the Eagles. 400 00:20:13,200 --> 00:20:17,200 Speaker 1: So um, yeah, this game chat, I want to seven. 401 00:20:18,240 --> 00:20:20,040 Speaker 1: Like I haven't bet that much on the seven and 402 00:20:20,080 --> 00:20:21,800 Speaker 1: a half just because I've been waiting for the seven. 403 00:20:23,560 --> 00:20:25,119 Speaker 1: I'll be pissed if it does go to eight, right 404 00:20:25,200 --> 00:20:26,680 Speaker 1: like me and you both would be a little pissed 405 00:20:26,680 --> 00:20:28,560 Speaker 1: if we missed the seven a half. So we'll see. 406 00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:31,720 Speaker 1: I probably will end up just you know, biting the 407 00:20:31,760 --> 00:20:33,560 Speaker 1: bullet and just doing and taking the seven and a half. 408 00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:37,159 Speaker 1: But I don't get it. All the money everyone I 409 00:20:37,240 --> 00:20:38,959 Speaker 1: talked to, all the tickets, even like I'm looking at 410 00:20:39,080 --> 00:20:40,879 Speaker 1: right now, they're all on the Giants and it's not 411 00:20:41,040 --> 00:20:44,480 Speaker 1: even off the seven half in any book. So I 412 00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:46,600 Speaker 1: just texted a guy and asked him, UM, wait for 413 00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:48,600 Speaker 1: his text backs if if he's if he's seen any 414 00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:50,320 Speaker 1: sevenths through the night, like when I was asleep, if 415 00:20:50,359 --> 00:20:53,479 Speaker 1: anyone books touched seven. But like I wake up through 416 00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:54,639 Speaker 1: the night and I checked my fun all the time 417 00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:57,320 Speaker 1: and I never saw a seven. So to me, the 418 00:20:57,359 --> 00:20:59,800 Speaker 1: books are cleared. Taking a stand here on the Eagles 419 00:21:00,520 --> 00:21:03,680 Speaker 1: um being chattered taking a stand as well, And we 420 00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:06,080 Speaker 1: might have a ton of egg on our face come 421 00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:08,080 Speaker 1: next to that when we come back here on the show. 422 00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:11,320 Speaker 1: Just because we already talked about all these little trends 423 00:21:11,440 --> 00:21:14,119 Speaker 1: point to backing blindly just back in the Giants here. 424 00:21:14,240 --> 00:21:16,920 Speaker 1: It's a good spot to back the best team a 425 00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:19,919 Speaker 1: t S wise this season. So the people that are 426 00:21:20,000 --> 00:21:22,159 Speaker 1: believers in them, they will be heavily rewarded. Me and 427 00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:26,119 Speaker 1: Chad who are believers in fading public perception, getting value 428 00:21:26,160 --> 00:21:30,200 Speaker 1: on a home favorite. And you know, looking at this 429 00:21:30,280 --> 00:21:32,840 Speaker 1: Eagles team that they're not even the favorite right now 430 00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:35,960 Speaker 1: in the NFC. The rookie quarterback Brock Purty and the 431 00:21:36,040 --> 00:21:38,680 Speaker 1: Fodders team is. So that lets you kind of all 432 00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:40,639 Speaker 1: you need to know about the market and what it 433 00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:42,560 Speaker 1: thinks of this egos team. I just think we're getting 434 00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:47,160 Speaker 1: a good undervalue team. Where if this number was ten, yes, 435 00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:48,959 Speaker 1: that'd be impossible for me. Each had to get off 436 00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:50,840 Speaker 1: of the giants, and then also the giants get blot 437 00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:53,359 Speaker 1: up by twenty we look like idiots. But at the 438 00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:56,080 Speaker 1: seven and a half, it's just it feels like it's 439 00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:57,879 Speaker 1: a good number, Like this number should be closer to 440 00:21:57,960 --> 00:22:00,480 Speaker 1: eight eight and a half. It's seven seven a half, 441 00:22:00,520 --> 00:22:02,600 Speaker 1: which I do think it's the slimmest amount of value. 442 00:22:03,080 --> 00:22:05,400 Speaker 1: I just think because people are that sharp, like that's 443 00:22:05,400 --> 00:22:07,280 Speaker 1: how smart these betters are. They're not gonna let it 444 00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:09,600 Speaker 1: get down below that seven or seven and a half. 445 00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:12,280 Speaker 1: So yeah, me chat are waiting for the seven. But 446 00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:14,399 Speaker 1: if if it doesn't get there, I gotta know what 447 00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:16,720 Speaker 1: you'd bet in the seven and a half. I love 448 00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:18,080 Speaker 1: how you get up in the middle of the night 449 00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:20,320 Speaker 1: regularly to check your phone to see if lines moved. 450 00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:22,959 Speaker 1: I get up regularly in the middle of the night 451 00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:27,320 Speaker 1: to pee. Now that's my forever favorite thing. If you 452 00:22:27,359 --> 00:22:30,800 Speaker 1: haven't downloaded the Action app is the one clicks one 453 00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:33,200 Speaker 1: stop shop to see all different books and what the 454 00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:36,320 Speaker 1: number is. It's just it's the ultimate game change because 455 00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:37,840 Speaker 1: back in there you have to go through every site, 456 00:22:37,880 --> 00:22:39,360 Speaker 1: which is does it sounds like a lot of work, 457 00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:41,800 Speaker 1: but it's a pain the ask to do putting your 458 00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:44,720 Speaker 1: going through each site to get each number. So once 459 00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:48,280 Speaker 1: again Action app. It's free to download, right, Chad, it's 460 00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:52,520 Speaker 1: the easy look at you one weekend in a studio 461 00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:57,600 Speaker 1: and by the way, people listening, you know, Simmons become 462 00:22:57,680 --> 00:23:02,399 Speaker 1: a remarkable media professional and in three short years he 463 00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:07,639 Speaker 1: was unreal in the studio. This weekend we were getting 464 00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:12,920 Speaker 1: all kinds of accolades from the production team. How wonderful 465 00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:17,680 Speaker 1: it was to work with Simon. Professional prepared, great on air, 466 00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:25,720 Speaker 1: so kind, so appreciative, Simon, way to go, say, if 467 00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:27,560 Speaker 1: it's only once a year, I can do it an 468 00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:29,280 Speaker 1: outdoor cat. If you gotta bring him in a couple 469 00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:31,560 Speaker 1: of times a year, if it's gonna work, oh yeah, 470 00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:34,679 Speaker 1: I totally thought, like sign is going to get us 471 00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:38,800 Speaker 1: all fired this weekend. He great. You know what I did, Chad? 472 00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:42,520 Speaker 1: I stuck it up for the team. That's right. Sometimes 473 00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:46,119 Speaker 1: you gotta do it. A lesson in adulthood. 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Make every moment more with FanDuel 490 00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:45,879 Speaker 1: Official sports Book. Partner of the NFL must be twenty 491 00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:48,760 Speaker 1: one or older and in select states three plus legs. 492 00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:52,280 Speaker 1: Minimum one dollar bet required. Refund issued as non withdrawabal 493 00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:54,560 Speaker 1: bonus bets in Ohio and free bets and all other 494 00:24:54,680 --> 00:24:57,720 Speaker 1: eligible states that expire seven days after receipt. Max bonus 495 00:24:57,800 --> 00:25:01,320 Speaker 1: five dollars and less. Otherwise specified fictions apply. See terms 496 00:25:01,359 --> 00:25:04,280 Speaker 1: at sports foot dot vanduel dot com. Gambling Problem call 497 00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:07,800 Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler or visit FanDuel dot com slash 498 00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:13,080 Speaker 1: rg in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Virginia 499 00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:16,159 Speaker 1: one eight hundred next step or text next step to 500 00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:19,000 Speaker 1: five three three four two in Arizona one eight eight 501 00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:21,880 Speaker 1: eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit 502 00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:26,640 Speaker 1: c CpG dot org slash chat in Connecticut. One eight 503 00:25:26,760 --> 00:25:30,360 Speaker 1: hundred nine with it in Indiana, k S Gambling help 504 00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:33,760 Speaker 1: dot com in Kansas one eight seven seven seven seven 505 00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:37,320 Speaker 1: zero stop in Louisiana one eight seven seven eight Hope 506 00:25:37,520 --> 00:25:40,719 Speaker 1: NY or text hope n Y. In New York, Tennessee. 507 00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:43,440 Speaker 1: Redline is one eight hundred eight eight nine nine seven 508 00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:46,359 Speaker 1: eight nine one eight hundred five to two seven hundred 509 00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:50,719 Speaker 1: in Wyoming, or visit www one eight hundred gambler dot 510 00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:54,560 Speaker 1: net in West Virginia. Well we want to do, we 511 00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:56,800 Speaker 1: said we might. We're thinking about making eagles are big balls. 512 00:25:56,800 --> 00:25:59,000 Speaker 1: You got a different big balls because I'm I'll be honest, 513 00:25:59,040 --> 00:26:01,240 Speaker 1: we do all the games. It's really giving me fits 514 00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:05,280 Speaker 1: and it's the hardest want me to click bet on 515 00:26:05,440 --> 00:26:07,880 Speaker 1: my on my computer on my phone is that Eagles game? 516 00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:10,280 Speaker 1: The seven a half is just it's making me me 517 00:26:10,359 --> 00:26:12,200 Speaker 1: feel like a coward. I'm just I hate the number. 518 00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:16,320 Speaker 1: I do too, so we do it this But this 519 00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:19,720 Speaker 1: is such a great lesson. This game. This game is 520 00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:23,200 Speaker 1: a microcosm of why betting is hard, whether you're a 521 00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:27,840 Speaker 1: professional or not, because you want to be patient, but 522 00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:32,000 Speaker 1: you want to time the market. You wanna understand the 523 00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:35,040 Speaker 1: the right side to play and when the books are 524 00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:39,119 Speaker 1: trying to bait you, but you want to understand public perception. Uh, 525 00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:44,800 Speaker 1: it's it. This is the hook is the hardest number 526 00:26:45,000 --> 00:26:48,560 Speaker 1: in sports. It is because a lot of times one 527 00:26:48,560 --> 00:26:50,399 Speaker 1: of the matter. That's what sucks where I'm trying to 528 00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:53,000 Speaker 1: overthink it. But just when you think it won't matter, 529 00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:57,760 Speaker 1: it does such a key This is such a key number. 530 00:26:57,880 --> 00:27:00,840 Speaker 1: So um, yeah, I feel get takes a little bit 531 00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:02,760 Speaker 1: of having big balls here to take a minus seven 532 00:27:02,760 --> 00:27:04,840 Speaker 1: and a half because the truth is, I think we 533 00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:08,560 Speaker 1: both think the Eagles probably should be favored by ten. Yeah. No, 534 00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:11,679 Speaker 1: if Hurts plays out the season, we dropped only one 535 00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:13,439 Speaker 1: game to Washington the whole year, and we play out 536 00:27:13,480 --> 00:27:15,600 Speaker 1: and we went all the rest of the games. You know, 537 00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:18,040 Speaker 1: this game would easily be closer to ten, especially the 538 00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:20,639 Speaker 1: fact that you know, people all year doubt of the 539 00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:23,560 Speaker 1: Eagles team. I mean, how many times I gotta say it, 540 00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:26,560 Speaker 1: NFC beast, it's by far the best division in the NFC. 541 00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:29,520 Speaker 1: And when we're sitting here looking at potential of being 542 00:27:29,520 --> 00:27:33,359 Speaker 1: an Eagles um Cowboys match, we're Giants Cowboys, uh for 543 00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:36,400 Speaker 1: the NFC Championship game, which is crazy to think because 544 00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:38,119 Speaker 1: it was it two years ago we had like an 545 00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:41,080 Speaker 1: eight and nine whoever was Washington making the playoffs or 546 00:27:41,119 --> 00:27:43,800 Speaker 1: eight and eight. So it's one of those where went 547 00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:46,159 Speaker 1: from being the worst division of football to arguably one 548 00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:48,760 Speaker 1: of the best divisions of football. So the Eagles just 549 00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:51,680 Speaker 1: seemed like a battle tested team that went through a 550 00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:53,879 Speaker 1: really tough season, a lot of ups and downs, a 551 00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:56,200 Speaker 1: lot of injuries, and I like a team of adversity 552 00:27:56,320 --> 00:27:58,000 Speaker 1: and a team that is just being doubted, like we 553 00:27:58,119 --> 00:28:00,280 Speaker 1: just talked about. I can't get over it. I can't 554 00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:02,560 Speaker 1: believe Rock Party is the favor right now to win 555 00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:05,520 Speaker 1: the NFC. It just feels like the overreaction of the 556 00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:08,120 Speaker 1: public is an all time high for the FOS team 557 00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:10,560 Speaker 1: and vice versa being low on this Eagles team. That 558 00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:13,600 Speaker 1: give me it's still a class of the NFC. The 559 00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:17,040 Speaker 1: NFC East has three teams in the divisional playoffs and 560 00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:23,320 Speaker 1: one team that leads the league in congressional and federal investigations. 561 00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:28,200 Speaker 1: Nobody can say that this division underachieves ever. Again, it's 562 00:28:28,240 --> 00:28:33,880 Speaker 1: facts facts. The problem with making the Giants Eagles are 563 00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:36,800 Speaker 1: big balls is I think it does a disservice to 564 00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:41,280 Speaker 1: the listeners because we really want to wait for the 565 00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:44,440 Speaker 1: seven and like, I don't think you and I I 566 00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:46,920 Speaker 1: have not bet this game yet. I am not going 567 00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:48,800 Speaker 1: to bet it at seven and a half. I'm either 568 00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:52,440 Speaker 1: gonna I'm gonna suck it up and it's gonna go 569 00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:54,960 Speaker 1: to eight and I'll end up betting it at eight anyways, 570 00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:58,280 Speaker 1: or I'm gonna wait for the seven and even at eight, 571 00:28:58,280 --> 00:29:00,200 Speaker 1: I'm not gonna bet the Eagles. I'm just wait to 572 00:29:00,200 --> 00:29:02,840 Speaker 1: see what happens with this number. So I don't think 573 00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:04,160 Speaker 1: we could do big bass because I don't think you 574 00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:05,600 Speaker 1: and I are gonna bet it at seven and a half. 575 00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:08,800 Speaker 1: I am man Mitchell hit that drop calling a chat here. 576 00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:12,080 Speaker 1: Goddamn coward, What did you say? It's my nerves, sir. 577 00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:15,480 Speaker 1: I just can't stand you anymore. Hell, you're just a 578 00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:19,040 Speaker 1: goddamn color. I won't have songs of pitches. We're afraid 579 00:29:19,080 --> 00:29:23,000 Speaker 1: to fight staying up this place of honor here. God 580 00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:26,520 Speaker 1: damn you take that seven a half? You enjoy it? 581 00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:28,520 Speaker 1: Chat now? I really don't. I just don't think we're 582 00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:29,800 Speaker 1: gonna get to the seven. I'll be honest with you, 583 00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:32,760 Speaker 1: but I completely agree with you. Everyone can wait and 584 00:29:32,920 --> 00:29:36,320 Speaker 1: hope for the seven. But like I'm I'm I'm gonna 585 00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:38,280 Speaker 1: throw a decent amount of the seven a half just 586 00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:41,160 Speaker 1: all right, Well that's different than what you were saying. 587 00:29:41,240 --> 00:29:43,720 Speaker 1: You didn't say that to me. I'm saying like I'm 588 00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:46,760 Speaker 1: waiting for it. But obviously, like comes Friday, I gotta 589 00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:48,840 Speaker 1: start getting money like I can't. I can't start just 590 00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:52,440 Speaker 1: betting everything Saturday Sunday morning. I just sadly it doesn't 591 00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:57,040 Speaker 1: work that way. Um So yeah, like bye bye tonight. 592 00:29:57,240 --> 00:30:00,920 Speaker 1: If there's still no seventh, Chad, I will start unloading 593 00:30:01,000 --> 00:30:02,920 Speaker 1: money onto the seven and a half. No no worries 594 00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:06,400 Speaker 1: from me, but we want the seven here's the beauty 595 00:30:06,480 --> 00:30:11,440 Speaker 1: now of the podcast being released by five thirty in 596 00:30:11,480 --> 00:30:14,720 Speaker 1: the evening on the day we record it. As long 597 00:30:14,800 --> 00:30:18,280 Speaker 1: as people subscribe to the favorites feed. This isn't just 598 00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:24,240 Speaker 1: a regular silly promo. This is advantageous. We can tell 599 00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:28,080 Speaker 1: them this can be our big balls, but bet it 600 00:30:28,600 --> 00:30:30,640 Speaker 1: like if it's if it hasn't moved from seven and 601 00:30:30,680 --> 00:30:35,240 Speaker 1: a half by Thursday night, big balls better the week 602 00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:38,760 Speaker 1: Philadelphia Eagles minus seven and a half, and I will 603 00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:40,680 Speaker 1: do the same thing. I'm not gonna say the name, 604 00:30:40,760 --> 00:30:42,280 Speaker 1: but if you open up the app, there is one 605 00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:46,920 Speaker 1: seven out there right now. Um, but it's a company 606 00:30:46,960 --> 00:30:50,200 Speaker 1: that does not sponsor us. Mhm. And then again, if 607 00:30:50,200 --> 00:30:52,240 Speaker 1: you're terrified of the seven and you want to back 608 00:30:52,280 --> 00:30:53,960 Speaker 1: a team that's been incredible in the first half, and 609 00:30:54,000 --> 00:30:56,120 Speaker 1: the Eagles, you could do that, and there's some three 610 00:30:56,160 --> 00:30:58,960 Speaker 1: and a half fours out there. I'm just a little 611 00:30:58,960 --> 00:31:00,920 Speaker 1: worried about what means chat talked about of a team 612 00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:04,400 Speaker 1: coming off a bye week sometimes starting slow, So that's 613 00:31:04,400 --> 00:31:06,880 Speaker 1: always a worry with that. So UM to me, I 614 00:31:07,080 --> 00:31:09,600 Speaker 1: don't mind the seven half as much, um, But obviously 615 00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:12,560 Speaker 1: we'll be on the Eagles first half as well, and 616 00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:15,160 Speaker 1: the pricing on the seven and a half, it's all 617 00:31:15,240 --> 00:31:18,440 Speaker 1: over the place. I'm seeing it is minus one twelve 618 00:31:18,600 --> 00:31:21,920 Speaker 1: minus one oh nine minus one ten. Like the minus 619 00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:23,680 Speaker 1: one twelve would tell me that it might be going 620 00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:26,560 Speaker 1: to eight. Uh, like some books are about to go 621 00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:28,360 Speaker 1: to eight and others are about to get back to seven. 622 00:31:29,160 --> 00:31:33,240 Speaker 1: That's that's so interesting. I told you it's pro on 623 00:31:33,360 --> 00:31:36,000 Speaker 1: pro so it depends what books limit, what guys um. 624 00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:42,360 Speaker 1: But yeah, definitely definitely split the next three hands, we're 625 00:31:42,360 --> 00:31:45,760 Speaker 1: gonna talk about them. They're not split. No, Uh, let's 626 00:31:45,760 --> 00:31:49,120 Speaker 1: talk about Jacksonville and the Chiefs. Let me ask you this. 627 00:31:49,760 --> 00:31:53,680 Speaker 1: I know you don't agree with this, but I'm on 628 00:31:53,800 --> 00:31:58,600 Speaker 1: the under and I hate correlating the under an aside 629 00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:03,240 Speaker 1: in a game. I just hate it. Yeah, yeah, because 630 00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:05,960 Speaker 1: then like I end up like having a root for 631 00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:09,400 Speaker 1: two different things. Well, that's why you always go larger 632 00:32:09,480 --> 00:32:11,320 Speaker 1: on one than the other. Like if I say I 633 00:32:11,400 --> 00:32:13,040 Speaker 1: do a side and a total, I'll go one unit 634 00:32:13,120 --> 00:32:15,360 Speaker 1: on a side and then happy unit on the under 635 00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:18,719 Speaker 1: or vice versia um, because the actuality, that is how 636 00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:21,160 Speaker 1: it is. We're like I'm gonna have fifty cameras side 637 00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:23,400 Speaker 1: and just ten k on a total, but I still 638 00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:25,120 Speaker 1: bet both, and I still have a decent amounts. I'm 639 00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:27,640 Speaker 1: gonna give out both. Um. Then I'm only you know 640 00:32:27,720 --> 00:32:32,479 Speaker 1: what I puts on the under. So I'm only going 641 00:32:32,520 --> 00:32:35,880 Speaker 1: to put fifty on the side or like thirty or forty. Um. 642 00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:41,120 Speaker 1: To me, the only fear is in Jackson Chiefs right now, 643 00:32:41,320 --> 00:32:43,880 Speaker 1: Jacks Chiefs. Um, My only fear of this game chat 644 00:32:43,960 --> 00:32:47,040 Speaker 1: is going back watched the last time they played, and 645 00:32:47,200 --> 00:32:49,320 Speaker 1: obviously Jaguars are not the same teams they were then. 646 00:32:49,520 --> 00:32:51,800 Speaker 1: Staying with the Chiefs though, I mean, they're improvements on 647 00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:54,040 Speaker 1: the defensive side has been pretty incredible the second half 648 00:32:54,040 --> 00:32:56,480 Speaker 1: of the season, just because their secondary is really young, 649 00:32:56,760 --> 00:33:00,680 Speaker 1: really really young. Um, they had they had a game 650 00:33:00,720 --> 00:33:02,360 Speaker 1: in which they want to turn up about they weren't 651 00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:05,320 Speaker 1: three and oh on turnovers and they still lost by 652 00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:07,080 Speaker 1: ten and we saw how how would happen. There's a 653 00:33:07,120 --> 00:33:08,600 Speaker 1: bunch of times they could have covered that number at 654 00:33:08,600 --> 00:33:10,880 Speaker 1: the end of that game. Uh, the Jaguars with the 655 00:33:10,960 --> 00:33:14,760 Speaker 1: Chiefs just didn't bounced their away. Where we're talking earlier 656 00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:16,400 Speaker 1: in the year when these two teams play early in 657 00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:18,000 Speaker 1: the year, and these two teams play so like one 658 00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:19,440 Speaker 1: of those where it's like I'm gonna throw it out. 659 00:33:19,480 --> 00:33:22,960 Speaker 1: Obviously the film because these teams are very different, but 660 00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:25,480 Speaker 1: you see a lot of what Andy's gonna do in 661 00:33:25,560 --> 00:33:28,280 Speaker 1: this game, where like the picking up, like not that 662 00:33:28,360 --> 00:33:29,520 Speaker 1: he was playing with his food. It felt like in 663 00:33:29,600 --> 00:33:32,200 Speaker 1: that game with My Homes a little bit though, like 664 00:33:32,320 --> 00:33:34,200 Speaker 1: a little bit. We're in the second half. They weren't 665 00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:36,800 Speaker 1: really doing much or showing much. They had multiple times 666 00:33:36,840 --> 00:33:38,720 Speaker 1: where they had run it on first time, run on second. 667 00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:41,360 Speaker 1: He would have a little you know, crazy play where 668 00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:43,400 Speaker 1: you try to pick up a first moment whatever it was, 669 00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:47,000 Speaker 1: but you let the Jags back into that game. So, um, 670 00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:50,160 Speaker 1: I was hoping the trends would back us more from 671 00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:52,760 Speaker 1: our guy Evan. They do a little bit like Favorite 672 00:33:52,800 --> 00:33:55,880 Speaker 1: Mahomes in this position as a big favorite. Obviously, this 673 00:33:56,000 --> 00:33:58,280 Speaker 1: year has not been good to them. The dogs have 674 00:33:58,360 --> 00:34:01,360 Speaker 1: been covering as a big dog, especially at home homes. 675 00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:03,440 Speaker 1: A moment's surprising. He is better on the road at 676 00:34:03,640 --> 00:34:06,240 Speaker 1: s wise he is at home. Um, you already talked 677 00:34:06,240 --> 00:34:08,800 Speaker 1: about the under. We were blindly gonna be on this 678 00:34:08,920 --> 00:34:11,280 Speaker 1: this This is just an automatic play this under. Historically 679 00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:14,719 Speaker 1: the trends back at also matchup wise, this is just 680 00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:17,920 Speaker 1: a good spot because the Jacks could totally lay in 681 00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:19,640 Speaker 1: negg here. We we just talked about there coming off 682 00:34:19,680 --> 00:34:22,279 Speaker 1: one of the biggest wins, and I don't even know 683 00:34:22,520 --> 00:34:24,040 Speaker 1: at least since Blake Mortles was there and he took 684 00:34:24,080 --> 00:34:27,360 Speaker 1: an NFC championship game. That was a moment that ownership, 685 00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:30,000 Speaker 1: front office, all of them have dreamt about of their 686 00:34:30,040 --> 00:34:33,839 Speaker 1: first overall pick. Came back at home and a huge game, 687 00:34:33,960 --> 00:34:36,440 Speaker 1: got a whole fan based route up, and it's got 688 00:34:36,480 --> 00:34:38,960 Speaker 1: all of us pros route up, like I don't get 689 00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:40,920 Speaker 1: this number at all. When I when I really honestly 690 00:34:41,080 --> 00:34:43,080 Speaker 1: put this number in my mouth, I wasn't all right seven, 691 00:34:43,600 --> 00:34:46,759 Speaker 1: which yes I would. I am half a point at 692 00:34:46,800 --> 00:34:49,440 Speaker 1: least to me, I'd be undervaluing the Chiefs just because 693 00:34:49,760 --> 00:34:52,000 Speaker 1: talking about the time they protect against teasers in the playoffs. 694 00:34:52,080 --> 00:34:56,279 Speaker 1: We saw it last week the Bengals Bills Chiefs. That 695 00:34:56,480 --> 00:35:00,640 Speaker 1: was like the ultimate chalk teaser. The bank showed a loss. 696 00:35:00,640 --> 00:35:02,000 Speaker 1: I mean, even me and she had talked about all 697 00:35:02,000 --> 00:35:03,880 Speaker 1: the time that that's even that teaser a breakers. So 698 00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:05,960 Speaker 1: that's why the books don't mind giving. They're like, yeah, 699 00:35:06,000 --> 00:35:08,919 Speaker 1: go ahead, throw a little three team. Ten point teas 700 00:35:08,920 --> 00:35:11,239 Speaker 1: are together of those teams because they know the math 701 00:35:11,280 --> 00:35:13,360 Speaker 1: works at over time. That's one of those teams is 702 00:35:13,360 --> 00:35:14,800 Speaker 1: gonna get caught. Like That's just how it is in 703 00:35:14,840 --> 00:35:18,759 Speaker 1: wild card weekend. The divisional weekend, it's way higher. I 704 00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:21,320 Speaker 1: told you the return on investment of betting these dogs, 705 00:35:21,760 --> 00:35:25,040 Speaker 1: especially these big dogs, it is very profitable in divisional round. 706 00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:28,759 Speaker 1: Chattery told you that the one seed historically, especially one 707 00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:31,000 Speaker 1: seeds out of above and eight percent win percentage, they 708 00:35:31,040 --> 00:35:34,640 Speaker 1: cover a lesson clip. So right there, that's why the 709 00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:37,040 Speaker 1: guys are kind of blindly fading the Eagles. They're blindly 710 00:35:37,080 --> 00:35:40,799 Speaker 1: fading the Bills, and they're blindly fading the Chiefs here 711 00:35:40,880 --> 00:35:43,279 Speaker 1: this week. Just because of those trends of these teams 712 00:35:43,280 --> 00:35:46,560 Speaker 1: are really high win percentages, usually underperformed in the playoffs 713 00:35:46,920 --> 00:35:49,239 Speaker 1: because the public is perception, right. We saw last week 714 00:35:49,280 --> 00:35:50,880 Speaker 1: with that Ravens again, that line was bumped up two 715 00:35:50,960 --> 00:35:53,440 Speaker 1: points just because everyone's all over Joe Burrow, on the 716 00:35:53,520 --> 00:35:56,239 Speaker 1: hype of Joe Burrow and that Cincinnati team, Like you know, 717 00:35:56,520 --> 00:35:58,640 Speaker 1: he was going up against a backup quarterback. They're gonna 718 00:35:59,160 --> 00:36:01,719 Speaker 1: steam that line up. We're me and you talked about 719 00:36:01,719 --> 00:36:04,360 Speaker 1: We're That's why we found Valley. We're not backing the 720 00:36:04,480 --> 00:36:06,200 Speaker 1: Ravens because of the quarterback. We're back in them because 721 00:36:06,200 --> 00:36:08,800 Speaker 1: of that defense. So it's the same thing with Jackson. 722 00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:12,799 Speaker 1: It's like I want to back the Chiefs, but we've 723 00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:15,000 Speaker 1: seen it time and time again. This team let these 724 00:36:15,040 --> 00:36:17,959 Speaker 1: teams back in it. So Chatt, I might be walking 725 00:36:18,000 --> 00:36:19,960 Speaker 1: into it, but there's no way of us avoiding it. 726 00:36:20,040 --> 00:36:22,440 Speaker 1: We love this Jaguars team and we're getting a great number, 727 00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:24,919 Speaker 1: a key number two at eight and a half nine 728 00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:29,280 Speaker 1: at some books. Um, I love it. But like looking 729 00:36:29,440 --> 00:36:30,759 Speaker 1: looking at this game and why I look at it, 730 00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:34,040 Speaker 1: I just I'm dreading it because it's like this ain't 731 00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:37,200 Speaker 1: no Herbert and Stanley. This is and your Reid and 732 00:36:37,239 --> 00:36:38,680 Speaker 1: my homes. This is a team that they've been to 733 00:36:38,719 --> 00:36:41,799 Speaker 1: the conference championship now four straight years or maybe it's 734 00:36:41,840 --> 00:36:43,600 Speaker 1: three years, and if they go this year before straight years, 735 00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:45,120 Speaker 1: they're just if they go this year, it will be 736 00:36:45,200 --> 00:36:49,040 Speaker 1: five five straight years. That's right, Like that's insane. So 737 00:36:50,520 --> 00:36:54,040 Speaker 1: I I wish I could come in here and puff 738 00:36:54,080 --> 00:36:57,600 Speaker 1: my chest out and uh which was about to clip 739 00:36:57,640 --> 00:37:00,040 Speaker 1: play the clip and just be like you took the 740 00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:03,239 Speaker 1: Jags Morne line, Jags upset this is destiny. This is 741 00:37:03,280 --> 00:37:07,319 Speaker 1: the Jaguars team. All right, listen, Duvall, they're doing it again. 742 00:37:07,760 --> 00:37:11,640 Speaker 1: They're counting your out. You are an afterthought. They're already 743 00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:14,520 Speaker 1: booking a dream matchup with the Chiefs and the Bills 744 00:37:14,719 --> 00:37:17,000 Speaker 1: in the a f C title. Get they're overlooking you. 745 00:37:17,440 --> 00:37:20,840 Speaker 1: But here's what they're overlooking, the upset minded spirit of 746 00:37:21,040 --> 00:37:24,600 Speaker 1: Duval County. Years ago, blank portals and the Jags knocked 747 00:37:24,640 --> 00:37:28,160 Speaker 1: off the bunted Steelers in Pittsburgh. Now you're counting out 748 00:37:28,200 --> 00:37:31,360 Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence against the defense that is given up thirty 749 00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:35,240 Speaker 1: three touchdown passes this year. That's more that the Titans 750 00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:37,040 Speaker 1: have given up. So I love me, hear you say, 751 00:37:37,360 --> 00:37:42,719 Speaker 1: do let's go. It's just hard to do against my 752 00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:45,359 Speaker 1: homes where I saw him dead, Like the Bills shot 753 00:37:45,440 --> 00:37:48,040 Speaker 1: him twice in the head last year. He was dead 754 00:37:48,680 --> 00:37:50,560 Speaker 1: and in seven seconds he got down the field and 755 00:37:50,640 --> 00:37:53,200 Speaker 1: kicked the field goal. So I just it's hard for 756 00:37:53,320 --> 00:37:55,480 Speaker 1: me to tell people to take the money line. But 757 00:37:56,000 --> 00:37:57,520 Speaker 1: I just I have to take this eight and a 758 00:37:57,520 --> 00:37:59,600 Speaker 1: half of the Jags team. But I will tell you 759 00:38:00,080 --> 00:38:01,560 Speaker 1: I don't think that's the best bet in the game. 760 00:38:01,640 --> 00:38:04,279 Speaker 1: The best bet in the game is the under. It's 761 00:38:04,360 --> 00:38:06,800 Speaker 1: the best bet for what we what we need to 762 00:38:06,880 --> 00:38:10,120 Speaker 1: happen to cover the Jags game, which is the Jacks 763 00:38:10,160 --> 00:38:12,960 Speaker 1: will slow the game down, really dreaded out and my 764 00:38:13,120 --> 00:38:15,560 Speaker 1: homes to be off killed because of that where he's 765 00:38:15,560 --> 00:38:17,839 Speaker 1: not getting enough reps and touches, where he feels off 766 00:38:17,880 --> 00:38:19,960 Speaker 1: balance after a buy a weekend, he doesn't have his 767 00:38:20,520 --> 00:38:24,040 Speaker 1: mom's games. So, um, yeah, if if that ends up 768 00:38:24,080 --> 00:38:25,880 Speaker 1: being our biggest bet in this game, if I if 769 00:38:25,920 --> 00:38:27,719 Speaker 1: I end up betting more on the under, I would 770 00:38:27,760 --> 00:38:29,640 Speaker 1: not be shocked. And I just said the trends back 771 00:38:29,719 --> 00:38:32,040 Speaker 1: it in our game script what we plan on happen 772 00:38:32,080 --> 00:38:35,000 Speaker 1: in this game. Also, that really realies heavily on the 773 00:38:35,080 --> 00:38:37,440 Speaker 1: under because if this game is going way over, I 774 00:38:37,640 --> 00:38:39,160 Speaker 1: just I think it would be tough for us to 775 00:38:39,440 --> 00:38:41,719 Speaker 1: uh cover this number, just because you don't want an 776 00:38:41,840 --> 00:38:46,000 Speaker 1: arms race between these two offenses. Yep, totally true. Um, 777 00:38:47,400 --> 00:38:51,640 Speaker 1: we like the Jags. I love the under. U. I 778 00:38:51,680 --> 00:38:53,400 Speaker 1: think it's just the way you gotta go. But you 779 00:38:53,440 --> 00:38:56,319 Speaker 1: do have to bet the Jacks. You gotta bet the Jacks. Um, 780 00:38:56,800 --> 00:39:01,160 Speaker 1: that's what we do. We do ugly things here. I 781 00:39:01,200 --> 00:39:07,520 Speaker 1: don't like it. Last week and of four games. Four games. 782 00:39:08,760 --> 00:39:11,240 Speaker 1: I miss it already. I was thinking about that because 783 00:39:11,239 --> 00:39:14,120 Speaker 1: I was making some notes this morning. What am I 784 00:39:14,160 --> 00:39:16,960 Speaker 1: gonna do next Saturday? Just talk to people and do 785 00:39:17,160 --> 00:39:20,120 Speaker 1: normal things again, not watch football. No, you're gonna tell 786 00:39:20,160 --> 00:39:22,200 Speaker 1: people there's a game. Hopefully the people you hang out 787 00:39:22,200 --> 00:39:25,880 Speaker 1: with don't know that I'm saying Saturday. Yeah, Hopefully the 788 00:39:25,880 --> 00:39:28,360 Speaker 1: people you hang out with don't know and aren't following 789 00:39:28,440 --> 00:39:31,400 Speaker 1: the season and don't realize that. You could just keep 790 00:39:31,440 --> 00:39:35,280 Speaker 1: telling like infinitely. Oh yeah, they playoffs. There's game Saturday 791 00:39:35,320 --> 00:39:40,000 Speaker 1: and Sunday until the middle of March. Um. Alright, let's 792 00:39:40,000 --> 00:39:42,839 Speaker 1: talk about the next game on the schedule. We've gone 793 00:39:42,880 --> 00:39:45,520 Speaker 1: through the Giants and the Egos. We've gone through the 794 00:39:45,680 --> 00:39:50,759 Speaker 1: Jags and the Chiefs. Uh, Cincinnati and Buffalo. Um, we 795 00:39:50,880 --> 00:39:53,880 Speaker 1: love Buffalo here by the way. In the luck rankings 796 00:39:54,840 --> 00:39:59,960 Speaker 1: from wild Card weekend, Cincinnati number one, Dallas number two, 797 00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:05,880 Speaker 1: you Jacksonville number three. Look, Cincinnati down three starters on 798 00:40:05,960 --> 00:40:10,239 Speaker 1: the offensive line. Bills have a deep past, deep defensive 799 00:40:10,280 --> 00:40:14,200 Speaker 1: line top ten and pressure rate. Cincinnati also binged up 800 00:40:14,200 --> 00:40:16,879 Speaker 1: in the secondary. Now you look at how the Bills 801 00:40:16,920 --> 00:40:21,800 Speaker 1: played against Miami. They played terribly against a backup quarterback, 802 00:40:22,680 --> 00:40:26,759 Speaker 1: and that team with a backup quarterback card every bad 803 00:40:26,840 --> 00:40:31,040 Speaker 1: break and the Bills still won Cincinnati against the backup 804 00:40:31,120 --> 00:40:34,200 Speaker 1: quarterback had only two and thirty four yards of offense 805 00:40:34,280 --> 00:40:38,120 Speaker 1: and was totally outplayed and only one because of a 806 00:40:38,239 --> 00:40:44,360 Speaker 1: miraculous yard return. Bills. You make me want to shout 807 00:40:48,000 --> 00:40:53,040 Speaker 1: wanna the camp flo pros. I have talked to you 808 00:40:53,120 --> 00:40:56,400 Speaker 1: that are on the Bengals. They're honestly thrown out everything 809 00:40:56,440 --> 00:40:58,560 Speaker 1: that thrown out trans throwing out all models, and they're 810 00:40:58,600 --> 00:41:01,239 Speaker 1: just saying, this is were you back Joe Brow when 811 00:41:01,280 --> 00:41:03,560 Speaker 1: no one believes in them? When everyone's getting off Joe this, 812 00:41:03,640 --> 00:41:05,600 Speaker 1: when you're back them? I said to them, he's still 813 00:41:05,640 --> 00:41:07,600 Speaker 1: getting all the tickets. The public is right there with you. 814 00:41:07,680 --> 00:41:09,360 Speaker 1: They all believe in them. They're all taking the stumber 815 00:41:09,480 --> 00:41:11,440 Speaker 1: just like you are. I feel like everyone's not believing 816 00:41:11,520 --> 00:41:17,959 Speaker 1: this Bills team. I think they're not overreacting to last week, 817 00:41:18,040 --> 00:41:20,919 Speaker 1: but a little bit of it right where it's like, yeah, 818 00:41:21,040 --> 00:41:22,640 Speaker 1: like how do they how do they play so bad 819 00:41:22,640 --> 00:41:25,080 Speaker 1: against the Miami team that's playing backups and as a 820 00:41:25,120 --> 00:41:26,800 Speaker 1: bunch of injuries across the board, and they had injuries 821 00:41:26,840 --> 00:41:29,839 Speaker 1: for offensive line that injuries to their defense Miami. Um, 822 00:41:30,680 --> 00:41:33,360 Speaker 1: did Miami simply get overlooked by the Bills? Will never know? 823 00:41:33,600 --> 00:41:36,320 Speaker 1: I mean, that's that's obviously the human part of it. 824 00:41:36,440 --> 00:41:38,480 Speaker 1: Where yeah, sure, when they were about to be up 825 00:41:38,520 --> 00:41:41,000 Speaker 1: twenty one nothing or whatever was seventeen nothing the Bills 826 00:41:41,680 --> 00:41:43,320 Speaker 1: maybe they took a little bit off the gas and 827 00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:45,880 Speaker 1: they got punished for that. Where that became way closer 828 00:41:45,960 --> 00:41:48,200 Speaker 1: the game, and once that had started happening, we kind 829 00:41:48,239 --> 00:41:50,239 Speaker 1: of saw it spinning there with like every little play 830 00:41:50,320 --> 00:41:52,400 Speaker 1: with Josh Allen felt like way harder than when the 831 00:41:52,400 --> 00:41:54,399 Speaker 1: start of the game. It just all looks so easy 832 00:41:54,480 --> 00:42:00,040 Speaker 1: to this Bills team. So matchup wise, I didn't. We 833 00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:02,160 Speaker 1: talked about I did not get this number when it opened, right, 834 00:42:02,239 --> 00:42:03,879 Speaker 1: There's a couple of books opened six and a half 835 00:42:03,920 --> 00:42:06,000 Speaker 1: and I was like, yikes, that is a horrible number. 836 00:42:06,000 --> 00:42:09,279 Speaker 1: Immediately bet since um because again, no one can run 837 00:42:09,320 --> 00:42:13,480 Speaker 1: a model that quick Sunday night, so bets since wake 838 00:42:13,600 --> 00:42:16,160 Speaker 1: up Sunday morning, it was already down or Monday morning 839 00:42:16,200 --> 00:42:18,560 Speaker 1: it was down to four and four and a half UM, 840 00:42:19,719 --> 00:42:23,680 Speaker 1: which made perfect sense. Then by Monday afternoon it was 841 00:42:23,719 --> 00:42:25,960 Speaker 1: down to three and a half, which again that's that 842 00:42:26,040 --> 00:42:28,239 Speaker 1: means like real pro money is coming on the since team. 843 00:42:29,560 --> 00:42:33,520 Speaker 1: And then by Tuesday whatever, two in the morning, you 844 00:42:33,560 --> 00:42:35,959 Speaker 1: saw it completely flip. You saw it already already started 845 00:42:35,960 --> 00:42:37,160 Speaker 1: going up to four or four, and alfter a couple 846 00:42:37,160 --> 00:42:40,520 Speaker 1: of books Chat I do, our show, The Day Goes by, 847 00:42:40,600 --> 00:42:42,799 Speaker 1: We Coming Today is now up through five and a half, 848 00:42:42,800 --> 00:42:44,919 Speaker 1: and almost every book there's a there's a one five 849 00:42:45,000 --> 00:42:46,399 Speaker 1: I can see right now in the app that's left 850 00:42:46,400 --> 00:42:49,920 Speaker 1: out there in sort of books. So I'm not shocked 851 00:42:50,080 --> 00:42:52,680 Speaker 1: how heavy the pros have come in. I am more 852 00:42:52,719 --> 00:42:54,760 Speaker 1: shocked the amount of money they're betting on the Bills. 853 00:42:54,920 --> 00:42:58,080 Speaker 1: Where I have my reservations because what I just talked about, 854 00:42:58,120 --> 00:43:01,480 Speaker 1: this Bill's defense has not right in a long time. 855 00:43:01,520 --> 00:43:04,600 Speaker 1: They've been giving up chunkyard, especially on the ground. Josh 856 00:43:04,640 --> 00:43:06,880 Speaker 1: Allen since the DeBow injury has not looked right. I mean, 857 00:43:06,920 --> 00:43:11,160 Speaker 1: the guy I was leading the league and um interceptions 858 00:43:11,239 --> 00:43:13,400 Speaker 1: until luckily Dak Prescott came back from injury and just 859 00:43:13,600 --> 00:43:15,840 Speaker 1: ran away with it. But there's been a lot of 860 00:43:15,960 --> 00:43:19,120 Speaker 1: questions with this Bill's team. Last year, there was no 861 00:43:19,239 --> 00:43:21,000 Speaker 1: there were none of those questions last year. They really 862 00:43:21,040 --> 00:43:23,200 Speaker 1: felt like that team where they had all everything going, 863 00:43:23,239 --> 00:43:25,799 Speaker 1: where this year. They do have questions, and I get 864 00:43:25,840 --> 00:43:27,959 Speaker 1: why the public is going in on since You because 865 00:43:28,000 --> 00:43:30,560 Speaker 1: of those questions. But me and Chad, we're just playing 866 00:43:30,560 --> 00:43:32,520 Speaker 1: a number here, and to us, this number should be 867 00:43:32,520 --> 00:43:34,880 Speaker 1: closer to six what it's about to get to. That 868 00:43:35,040 --> 00:43:37,080 Speaker 1: makes sense because of all the injuries to the offensive 869 00:43:37,080 --> 00:43:39,719 Speaker 1: line with since You where, yeah, Joe might be able 870 00:43:39,760 --> 00:43:41,080 Speaker 1: to have his moments like he did last year in 871 00:43:41,080 --> 00:43:43,560 Speaker 1: the playoffs. And I get why the pros are saying, well, 872 00:43:43,600 --> 00:43:46,560 Speaker 1: any anytime Joe's bigger dog than three, it's worked out 873 00:43:46,600 --> 00:43:48,600 Speaker 1: for me. So I'm gonna take it here because he 874 00:43:48,719 --> 00:43:52,279 Speaker 1: just plays teams close, So I get where they're coming from. 875 00:43:52,840 --> 00:43:55,440 Speaker 1: I just love this Bill's matchup so much because of 876 00:43:55,520 --> 00:43:57,480 Speaker 1: what we talked about, just the undervalue of them and 877 00:43:58,719 --> 00:44:03,080 Speaker 1: they we January kind of talked about. But the problems 878 00:44:03,120 --> 00:44:05,200 Speaker 1: they have this week already said they can fix those 879 00:44:05,239 --> 00:44:08,120 Speaker 1: problems these since the issues they can't fix it like this. 880 00:44:08,239 --> 00:44:10,399 Speaker 1: They have all these backups now on the offensive line, 881 00:44:10,440 --> 00:44:12,879 Speaker 1: that's major issues. When they have different call signs, all 882 00:44:12,960 --> 00:44:16,000 Speaker 1: these protection schemes, that's a big deal to this Bengals team. Now, 883 00:44:16,080 --> 00:44:17,600 Speaker 1: I know their front is nowhere near as good as 884 00:44:17,640 --> 00:44:20,440 Speaker 1: the Ravens front, but they still have all pros, especially 885 00:44:20,440 --> 00:44:22,560 Speaker 1: in the linebacker position on this Buffalo team, where I 886 00:44:22,640 --> 00:44:25,400 Speaker 1: know they're gonna be able to schemes to McDermott. To me, 887 00:44:25,560 --> 00:44:27,600 Speaker 1: he's one of the best defensive schemers in the game. 888 00:44:27,719 --> 00:44:30,080 Speaker 1: Like he is just a genius when it comes to 889 00:44:30,120 --> 00:44:32,879 Speaker 1: scheming up stuff defensively. And that's why the Bills since 890 00:44:32,920 --> 00:44:35,560 Speaker 1: he's been there, historically been a top five defense. Not 891 00:44:35,719 --> 00:44:37,320 Speaker 1: d v O A, not just dv O A, but 892 00:44:37,760 --> 00:44:41,359 Speaker 1: other statistics back then. So yeah, I I can't get 893 00:44:41,360 --> 00:44:43,799 Speaker 1: out of my way chat on this one. Um loved 894 00:44:43,840 --> 00:44:46,279 Speaker 1: the Bills obviously. I mean you always like in the 895 00:44:46,360 --> 00:44:47,880 Speaker 1: best of number side. I wish it's stayed at four 896 00:44:47,920 --> 00:44:49,759 Speaker 1: and a half. Four that was just a really nice 897 00:44:49,840 --> 00:44:52,360 Speaker 1: key number. But I already talked about if you can 898 00:44:52,400 --> 00:44:54,560 Speaker 1: get if you haven't gotten it, I'm still making bets 899 00:44:54,560 --> 00:44:56,440 Speaker 1: of five and a half just because I think it 900 00:44:56,480 --> 00:44:59,839 Speaker 1: will eventually get the six. We'll see. I mean, it's 901 00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:02,359 Speaker 1: doesn't touched six in any book yet, but it's it's 902 00:45:02,400 --> 00:45:04,160 Speaker 1: holding right now five and a half. So maybe that's 903 00:45:04,160 --> 00:45:06,440 Speaker 1: the resistance line of as soon as they touched six 904 00:45:06,520 --> 00:45:08,719 Speaker 1: the pros, I guess come in heavy on the other side, 905 00:45:08,800 --> 00:45:11,480 Speaker 1: But to me, I would take this up to five 906 00:45:11,480 --> 00:45:17,640 Speaker 1: and a half of this Bills team. Um, what sticks 907 00:45:17,680 --> 00:45:20,319 Speaker 1: out to me is that anytime Joe Burrow dropped back 908 00:45:20,360 --> 00:45:24,920 Speaker 1: at the end of that Bengals Ravens game, he was 909 00:45:25,080 --> 00:45:28,040 Speaker 1: cratering like just had no turn in his lap. And 910 00:45:28,200 --> 00:45:31,319 Speaker 1: like this Bills team doesn't need to blitz to get 911 00:45:31,360 --> 00:45:33,480 Speaker 1: that kind of pressure that the line can do it 912 00:45:34,000 --> 00:45:38,120 Speaker 1: all on its own. So, uh, you know, the Bills 913 00:45:38,120 --> 00:45:41,200 Speaker 1: are are a good spot here. The last game, I 914 00:45:41,239 --> 00:45:44,799 Speaker 1: wouldn't say we like divisional round and the upset here, 915 00:45:45,120 --> 00:45:47,120 Speaker 1: no one be shocked, like we've seen it all year 916 00:45:47,239 --> 00:45:50,560 Speaker 1: where every team has red zones struggles. Do we know 917 00:45:50,680 --> 00:45:52,320 Speaker 1: what weeks and what games that's going to be for 918 00:45:52,400 --> 00:45:55,520 Speaker 1: certain teams? No, that's impossible to know since that is 919 00:45:55,560 --> 00:45:58,560 Speaker 1: their strength all year. Like surprisingly, as great as their 920 00:45:58,640 --> 00:46:00,680 Speaker 1: offensive played and Joe Burrow gets all the accolades if 921 00:46:00,719 --> 00:46:03,320 Speaker 1: you go through it, a lot of the games, was 922 00:46:03,520 --> 00:46:06,280 Speaker 1: their defense really picking up the slacking of that offense, 923 00:46:06,320 --> 00:46:07,920 Speaker 1: especially earlier in the season when they were just off 924 00:46:08,000 --> 00:46:10,680 Speaker 1: such a rough start. So since see, if they didn't 925 00:46:10,680 --> 00:46:13,080 Speaker 1: have all these injuries, I would love them here, Like 926 00:46:13,160 --> 00:46:14,960 Speaker 1: to me, this would be a no brain, especially the 927 00:46:14,960 --> 00:46:17,040 Speaker 1: way the Bills have played this year, that you have 928 00:46:17,160 --> 00:46:19,040 Speaker 1: to account for all these injuries. They have to they 929 00:46:19,120 --> 00:46:20,759 Speaker 1: have to catch up to him at some point, and 930 00:46:20,840 --> 00:46:22,000 Speaker 1: that's what I think it do. I just think the 931 00:46:22,080 --> 00:46:24,400 Speaker 1: Bills are too good for a team to be this 932 00:46:24,480 --> 00:46:26,880 Speaker 1: banged up to comment and cover this number, especially when 933 00:46:26,920 --> 00:46:29,719 Speaker 1: the Bills are at home in this position. Last Give 934 00:46:29,760 --> 00:46:33,239 Speaker 1: of the Day, Cowboys visiting the Niners. Uh, we talked 935 00:46:33,239 --> 00:46:36,200 Speaker 1: about it a little bit on Tuesday. We settled on 936 00:46:36,280 --> 00:46:38,719 Speaker 1: the under being the bet that we liked the most. 937 00:46:38,760 --> 00:46:40,640 Speaker 1: It was at forty six and a half. I think 938 00:46:40,680 --> 00:46:46,959 Speaker 1: now it's down to um, you leaned Niners. I didn't 939 00:46:47,000 --> 00:46:50,239 Speaker 1: have a huge feeling about it yet wise guys coming 940 00:46:50,280 --> 00:46:54,200 Speaker 1: in hard on the Cowboys. This line has moved down 941 00:46:54,320 --> 00:46:58,400 Speaker 1: from four to three and a half. Yeah, I mean 942 00:46:58,480 --> 00:47:01,640 Speaker 1: we'll talk about because I'm just I've been in decisive 943 00:47:01,640 --> 00:47:03,160 Speaker 1: about where I took when I touched three and a 944 00:47:03,200 --> 00:47:05,320 Speaker 1: half when we came in whenever that was Tuesday morning, 945 00:47:05,680 --> 00:47:08,360 Speaker 1: I made it two bets, um, two different books on 946 00:47:08,480 --> 00:47:11,000 Speaker 1: the number, just because I was like, okay, this is 947 00:47:11,120 --> 00:47:12,799 Speaker 1: this is this Maybe this has moved too far at 948 00:47:12,840 --> 00:47:14,719 Speaker 1: this point, this is way too much renover reaction till 949 00:47:14,800 --> 00:47:18,680 Speaker 1: last week with the Cowboys. Um. But then once again 950 00:47:18,760 --> 00:47:23,600 Speaker 1: it's like, all right, maybe I shouldn't be maybe I 951 00:47:23,640 --> 00:47:25,600 Speaker 1: shouldn't be so down the Cowboys in the sense that 952 00:47:25,840 --> 00:47:28,879 Speaker 1: their struggles during the season, obviously they're not gonna supply 953 00:47:28,920 --> 00:47:31,879 Speaker 1: on the correct all those struggles. But it's more about 954 00:47:31,920 --> 00:47:34,000 Speaker 1: the Four Nins. Who the hell have they played? And 955 00:47:34,120 --> 00:47:36,319 Speaker 1: that's what I keep going back to. Where and when 956 00:47:36,320 --> 00:47:38,480 Speaker 1: I look at this Four Nights team, I think they 957 00:47:38,560 --> 00:47:40,799 Speaker 1: were incredibly lucky to be the division they're in where. 958 00:47:41,520 --> 00:47:43,759 Speaker 1: I mean, let's face it, like, who was our top 959 00:47:43,800 --> 00:47:46,839 Speaker 1: competition that division? Geno Smith, the team they dominated twice 960 00:47:46,880 --> 00:47:49,120 Speaker 1: when they played them, They're just there was nothing in 961 00:47:49,160 --> 00:47:52,560 Speaker 1: that division. And then I look through it, it turns out, okay, 962 00:47:52,600 --> 00:47:54,920 Speaker 1: the financially did not play anyone. So they played two 963 00:47:55,000 --> 00:47:58,279 Speaker 1: teams that had a positive point differential. You know, those 964 00:47:58,280 --> 00:48:03,640 Speaker 1: two teams were chat like two teams all season. There 965 00:48:03,719 --> 00:48:06,400 Speaker 1: was a Seahawks at plus nine and it was the 966 00:48:06,520 --> 00:48:10,120 Speaker 1: Chiefs at plus What happened when they played the Chiefs, 967 00:48:12,280 --> 00:48:14,600 Speaker 1: I can't remember that game. They got smoked. I think 968 00:48:14,840 --> 00:48:19,239 Speaker 1: they lost like forty forty two to say they got 969 00:48:19,239 --> 00:48:23,880 Speaker 1: absolutely smoked. Um, do I think their defense is as 970 00:48:23,920 --> 00:48:25,520 Speaker 1: bad as they were in that Chiefs game? No, I 971 00:48:25,600 --> 00:48:28,719 Speaker 1: do not. But do I think there had major weaknesses 972 00:48:28,760 --> 00:48:30,920 Speaker 1: that once they faced a good offense and offense canna exploit. 973 00:48:31,120 --> 00:48:33,320 Speaker 1: I do. And I think that you're gonna get a 974 00:48:33,360 --> 00:48:36,320 Speaker 1: match up here with this Dallas team that if Dallas 975 00:48:36,400 --> 00:48:40,040 Speaker 1: is smart, they will literally give the fernand Is their 976 00:48:40,040 --> 00:48:43,600 Speaker 1: own medicine, which is you basically just gonna bleed the 977 00:48:43,680 --> 00:48:46,359 Speaker 1: clock and make it that Purty is just uncomfortable. Pretty 978 00:48:46,400 --> 00:48:47,759 Speaker 1: we've seen the time thanking. If you go back to 979 00:48:47,760 --> 00:48:50,840 Speaker 1: watch this film, unless he gets in a rhythm, he's 980 00:48:50,880 --> 00:48:53,239 Speaker 1: out of sorts. Like That's why they run so much 981 00:48:53,320 --> 00:48:55,800 Speaker 1: and give him so many play action things, because Shanahan 982 00:48:55,880 --> 00:48:57,520 Speaker 1: is literally like, Okay, I got a rookie kid here, 983 00:48:57,920 --> 00:48:59,759 Speaker 1: let me just get him some easy throats he can 984 00:48:59,840 --> 00:49:01,839 Speaker 1: live to watch and throw and see a guy catch, 985 00:49:02,000 --> 00:49:03,960 Speaker 1: just to get him comfortable and get him into a 986 00:49:04,040 --> 00:49:06,600 Speaker 1: good zone. When he doesn't get that, when he's just 987 00:49:06,719 --> 00:49:10,360 Speaker 1: uncom from the get go, he mightily struggles. And I 988 00:49:10,560 --> 00:49:12,520 Speaker 1: just love like the more I study on this team, 989 00:49:12,560 --> 00:49:15,200 Speaker 1: It's just I love the matchup, not only for the 990 00:49:15,239 --> 00:49:18,719 Speaker 1: Cowboys d line, but further offense. I just like the 991 00:49:18,800 --> 00:49:21,040 Speaker 1: way they can be able to spread teams out. I 992 00:49:21,120 --> 00:49:23,080 Speaker 1: have no idea what they're gonna do a Zeke. Their 993 00:49:23,120 --> 00:49:25,600 Speaker 1: coaching staffs not dumb. Zeke has really fallen off a 994 00:49:25,640 --> 00:49:28,480 Speaker 1: cliff here. These this last year. Pollard, since he's come 995 00:49:28,480 --> 00:49:31,200 Speaker 1: back from his injuries, looked better every week. This is 996 00:49:31,520 --> 00:49:33,800 Speaker 1: his dream matchup. This is kind of matchup where you 997 00:49:33,920 --> 00:49:36,560 Speaker 1: really would use Pollard. Where you look at that Chief's matchup, 998 00:49:36,640 --> 00:49:39,319 Speaker 1: it sounds crazy that whole match was based off their 999 00:49:39,400 --> 00:49:41,400 Speaker 1: running backs. Yes, Mahomes did a lot of stuff with 1000 00:49:41,440 --> 00:49:44,480 Speaker 1: the receivers, but he was literally using his running backs 1001 00:49:44,520 --> 00:49:48,520 Speaker 1: against their linebackers. So say, uh Fred's calling up a 1002 00:49:48,520 --> 00:49:50,560 Speaker 1: blitz scheme for the linebackers. They're gonna send a guy 1003 00:49:50,640 --> 00:49:53,560 Speaker 1: from the right side. Moments would shifts running back to 1004 00:49:53,600 --> 00:49:55,520 Speaker 1: that right side and literally just dump off to it. 1005 00:49:56,040 --> 00:49:58,799 Speaker 1: And it sounds stupid. They did that the whole game, 1006 00:49:58,840 --> 00:50:01,040 Speaker 1: a throw or four years off Olens and it worked. 1007 00:50:01,200 --> 00:50:04,359 Speaker 1: I mean, comes second half, the four were exhausted, their 1008 00:50:04,400 --> 00:50:07,719 Speaker 1: linebackers were exhausted from running sidle into sideline. I think 1009 00:50:07,800 --> 00:50:09,359 Speaker 1: Dallas will do the same thing here and I see 1010 00:50:09,400 --> 00:50:11,880 Speaker 1: why the pros are coming into heavy ones because I 1011 00:50:11,880 --> 00:50:14,480 Speaker 1: didn't like this. To me, this was just a smart under. 1012 00:50:14,520 --> 00:50:15,920 Speaker 1: I could see Dak Lane an egg and I could 1013 00:50:15,920 --> 00:50:18,680 Speaker 1: see pretty landing egg and this being a twenty to 1014 00:50:18,840 --> 00:50:23,640 Speaker 1: ten fourteen just grinded out battle between two teams um 1015 00:50:23,880 --> 00:50:27,160 Speaker 1: that have incredible D lines. Now, the pros, all these 1016 00:50:27,160 --> 00:50:29,759 Speaker 1: pros I talked to, they're just they're just they're the 1017 00:50:29,800 --> 00:50:30,960 Speaker 1: ones that were like, you have to go back and 1018 00:50:31,000 --> 00:50:33,600 Speaker 1: watch that Chiefs take because they're just loving this Cowboys 1019 00:50:33,680 --> 00:50:38,239 Speaker 1: offense matchup wise against this FOURTS defense. So, um, this 1020 00:50:38,320 --> 00:50:39,840 Speaker 1: won't be one of my biggest bets of the weekend. 1021 00:50:39,920 --> 00:50:42,759 Speaker 1: I can tell you this. Really smart groups have put 1022 00:50:43,040 --> 00:50:45,680 Speaker 1: well into seven figures at this point on the four, 1023 00:50:45,920 --> 00:50:47,040 Speaker 1: the four and a half and the three and a 1024 00:50:47,040 --> 00:50:51,239 Speaker 1: half of this Cowboys team. So to me, I think 1025 00:50:51,239 --> 00:50:53,719 Speaker 1: we'll eventually see some forts money coming in because I 1026 00:50:53,840 --> 00:50:55,600 Speaker 1: know some pros that they're the ones that have pushed 1027 00:50:55,640 --> 00:50:57,920 Speaker 1: this is up so high, and they're the ones that 1028 00:50:58,480 --> 00:51:00,480 Speaker 1: they think they're the team of destiny, not the Eagles, 1029 00:51:00,520 --> 00:51:02,680 Speaker 1: not the Cowboys on the Giants. They're the ones who 1030 00:51:02,680 --> 00:51:06,160 Speaker 1: have been betting Purty and its four futures for a 1031 00:51:06,280 --> 00:51:08,480 Speaker 1: month now, like they've just been drinking the kool aid 1032 00:51:08,560 --> 00:51:10,200 Speaker 1: and it's been good to them. This team has been 1033 00:51:10,280 --> 00:51:13,840 Speaker 1: covering and they've been winning these big spreads. So I 1034 00:51:14,000 --> 00:51:16,320 Speaker 1: get where they're coming from. I get the love of purty. 1035 00:51:17,280 --> 00:51:18,680 Speaker 1: I just look at the film and I'm like, this 1036 00:51:18,760 --> 00:51:20,680 Speaker 1: guy has been very lucky and he's been playing against 1037 00:51:20,760 --> 00:51:23,200 Speaker 1: very weak competition. So we're about to learn a lot 1038 00:51:23,239 --> 00:51:25,040 Speaker 1: about them. I mean Shannon and we talked at him. 1039 00:51:25,080 --> 00:51:28,160 Speaker 1: He's a great schemer. What's his biggest weakness? As biggest 1040 00:51:28,160 --> 00:51:30,160 Speaker 1: weakness when he gets a lead heading to the fourth quarter. 1041 00:51:30,320 --> 00:51:32,719 Speaker 1: So at no point with me, chat we're taking this 1042 00:51:32,800 --> 00:51:34,080 Speaker 1: three and a half. Am I gonna be sweating this 1043 00:51:34,120 --> 00:51:36,359 Speaker 1: unless they're getting blown out, obviously, then we're dead. We're 1044 00:51:36,400 --> 00:51:39,080 Speaker 1: dead in the water with Dallas. But if say Dallas 1045 00:51:39,200 --> 00:51:43,320 Speaker 1: is downten heading into the fourth quarter, I'm honestly not 1046 00:51:43,440 --> 00:51:45,279 Speaker 1: that scared. Me and Chad are touchdown away from covering 1047 00:51:45,320 --> 00:51:47,320 Speaker 1: this three and a half. So I'm with the pros. 1048 00:51:47,320 --> 00:51:49,399 Speaker 1: I believe this is a good number. My biggest bets 1049 00:51:49,400 --> 00:51:51,960 Speaker 1: gonna still be the under UM. I'm still grab it 1050 00:51:52,040 --> 00:51:55,239 Speaker 1: now before it goes down below UM. But if you 1051 00:51:55,239 --> 00:51:57,560 Speaker 1: already got the forty six and a half or forty six, 1052 00:51:58,440 --> 00:52:00,359 Speaker 1: just wait, it could it could get better up again. 1053 00:52:00,440 --> 00:52:02,400 Speaker 1: But to me, I think pros will keep taking this 1054 00:52:02,520 --> 00:52:06,880 Speaker 1: under as well. Yeah, I think that a lot of 1055 00:52:06,960 --> 00:52:10,319 Speaker 1: pros have this game power rated at our own four. 1056 00:52:11,160 --> 00:52:14,160 Speaker 1: So I think that's why we were seeing the number 1057 00:52:14,239 --> 00:52:17,719 Speaker 1: move And that narrative about who has brought pretty really 1058 00:52:17,800 --> 00:52:21,920 Speaker 1: faced has become very real this week, you know, with 1059 00:52:22,200 --> 00:52:25,640 Speaker 1: with less games to analyze and the ability to spend 1060 00:52:25,680 --> 00:52:28,440 Speaker 1: more time on each individual game, this has become a 1061 00:52:28,520 --> 00:52:32,960 Speaker 1: real conversation. Uh. And in the flip side, the way 1062 00:52:33,040 --> 00:52:36,279 Speaker 1: people are thinking about the Cowboys, you know, you can 1063 00:52:36,360 --> 00:52:38,839 Speaker 1: have negative biases just the way say, the same way 1064 00:52:38,880 --> 00:52:42,080 Speaker 1: you can self scout against positive biases, you can self 1065 00:52:42,120 --> 00:52:46,440 Speaker 1: scout against negative biases. Uh. And people saw something against 1066 00:52:46,480 --> 00:52:48,719 Speaker 1: the Bucks. So I mean we still have all our 1067 00:52:48,800 --> 00:52:51,600 Speaker 1: question marks about that Adack. I mean, Dak that doesn't 1068 00:52:51,640 --> 00:52:53,919 Speaker 1: just get thrown out in one game like Dac. He's 1069 00:52:53,920 --> 00:52:58,400 Speaker 1: had major issues this year. And am I going to 1070 00:52:58,480 --> 00:53:00,600 Speaker 1: feel like an idiot taken back against grade at number 1071 00:53:00,600 --> 00:53:03,800 Speaker 1: one defensive football if we get totally destroyed here? Of course, 1072 00:53:04,040 --> 00:53:06,160 Speaker 1: But like Jettis talked, about we're trying to we're trying 1073 00:53:06,160 --> 00:53:08,239 Speaker 1: to play a number here, and I'm not taking anything 1074 00:53:08,239 --> 00:53:11,080 Speaker 1: way from Pretty. I mean Pretty. To me, he deserves, 1075 00:53:11,320 --> 00:53:13,719 Speaker 1: in my opinion, to be the starter next season heading 1076 00:53:13,719 --> 00:53:15,680 Speaker 1: into the camp and him and Trailians can battle it out, 1077 00:53:15,719 --> 00:53:18,040 Speaker 1: and obviously Shannon will give the winner to that. But 1078 00:53:18,120 --> 00:53:20,719 Speaker 1: to me, you have to respect Pretty. He's made all 1079 00:53:20,800 --> 00:53:23,120 Speaker 1: the places, he's made, all the throws. They've had games 1080 00:53:23,360 --> 00:53:26,520 Speaker 1: during this run, they've been down and it wasn't McCaffrey 1081 00:53:26,640 --> 00:53:29,000 Speaker 1: or whatever bringing them back. It was Pretty making these 1082 00:53:29,040 --> 00:53:31,880 Speaker 1: big time throws. So I'm trying to be so negative 1083 00:53:31,880 --> 00:53:34,160 Speaker 1: and take anything away from the kid. I'm just simply 1084 00:53:34,239 --> 00:53:38,160 Speaker 1: staying facts of this team really has not played anyone. 1085 00:53:38,440 --> 00:53:41,759 Speaker 1: The fort simply have not played offensively anyone really that's 1086 00:53:42,040 --> 00:53:45,799 Speaker 1: worth talking about. Like they just they've had a nice run. 1087 00:53:45,880 --> 00:53:49,160 Speaker 1: They are a very good defense. We saw those holes 1088 00:53:49,200 --> 00:53:52,279 Speaker 1: in their secondary, I mean that was there. Like DK 1089 00:53:52,440 --> 00:53:54,239 Speaker 1: Metcalf had a really good game against him for that 1090 00:53:54,320 --> 00:53:57,400 Speaker 1: Seahawks team. So that's why I completely understand where these 1091 00:53:57,440 --> 00:53:59,879 Speaker 1: pros are coming from. Believing in this offense of Dak 1092 00:54:00,200 --> 00:54:02,279 Speaker 1: Ceedee Lamb and these cowboy guys gonna move the ball 1093 00:54:02,680 --> 00:54:05,279 Speaker 1: get to four. I've seen that once again. They have 1094 00:54:05,400 --> 00:54:08,440 Speaker 1: faced only one top three or top five offense this season. 1095 00:54:08,560 --> 00:54:10,680 Speaker 1: So I am interested to see how this game plays 1096 00:54:10,680 --> 00:54:14,440 Speaker 1: out right now because I wasn't. I did not like 1097 00:54:14,600 --> 00:54:16,319 Speaker 1: the Cowboys coming into it. I thought the public are 1098 00:54:16,360 --> 00:54:18,800 Speaker 1: reacted to it, and it's my opinions really turned with 1099 00:54:18,800 --> 00:54:20,520 Speaker 1: the amount of pros and how they've talked about this 1100 00:54:20,640 --> 00:54:25,360 Speaker 1: Dallas team. Yep, totally has all right, let's recap. Simon says, 1101 00:54:25,560 --> 00:54:29,000 Speaker 1: was the nine miners Cowboys under forty six and a half. 1102 00:54:29,160 --> 00:54:30,840 Speaker 1: Keep trying to get it at forty six if you 1103 00:54:30,920 --> 00:54:33,760 Speaker 1: can fox hole Bills minus four and a half. Definitely 1104 00:54:33,760 --> 00:54:36,720 Speaker 1: feels like we fox hold that one. Exact decision Chiefs 1105 00:54:36,760 --> 00:54:39,440 Speaker 1: Jags under fifty three, fifty two and a half. Our 1106 00:54:39,480 --> 00:54:41,399 Speaker 1: big balls is going to be the Eagles minus seven 1107 00:54:41,440 --> 00:54:46,360 Speaker 1: and a half. Let's hold off and see if you 1108 00:54:46,480 --> 00:54:48,880 Speaker 1: know it's moved. Yeah, it's same se of the Cowboys, 1109 00:54:48,920 --> 00:54:50,560 Speaker 1: Like if you can find a four with the Cowboys, 1110 00:54:50,680 --> 00:54:52,080 Speaker 1: that's the movie. You just want to grab the best 1111 00:54:52,120 --> 00:54:54,120 Speaker 1: number you can. So Sam, Cowboys grabbed the four. If 1112 00:54:54,160 --> 00:54:56,839 Speaker 1: you can. Eagles, me and Chad where you talking? We're 1113 00:54:56,840 --> 00:54:59,080 Speaker 1: gonna wait for the seven. If you're like me and 1114 00:54:59,080 --> 00:55:01,000 Speaker 1: you can't wait any long here, I would just bite 1115 00:55:01,000 --> 00:55:03,480 Speaker 1: the bullet. Grab a seven and a half. All right, 1116 00:55:03,760 --> 00:55:08,080 Speaker 1: this has been the Favorites podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. 1117 00:55:08,160 --> 00:55:11,200 Speaker 1: A great review. Subscribe, don't forget. Subscribed to the favorite feed. 1118 00:55:11,880 --> 00:55:16,240 Speaker 1: You get the podcast earlier. You get it late afternoon, 1119 00:55:16,560 --> 00:55:19,200 Speaker 1: early evening. The day will record. We subscribe to the 1120 00:55:19,239 --> 00:55:21,719 Speaker 1: favorite feed, leave us five stars. Say whatever you want 1121 00:55:21,719 --> 00:55:27,719 Speaker 1: to feedback as a gift until next time. I love you. Yeah. 1122 00:55:31,239 --> 00:55:35,719 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 1123 00:55:35,800 --> 00:55:39,080 Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available. 1124 00:55:39,800 --> 00:55:41,640 Speaker 1: Seven Gambler