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Speaker 1: Hi, this is Tim. Since this episode was first recorded,

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Speaker 1: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis dropped out of the presidential race.

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Speaker 1: As you will listen in the following conversation. We did

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Speaker 1: expect him to drop out pretty soon. We just didn't

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Speaker 1: think it would happen this quickly. Anyway, Thanks for listening

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Speaker 1: and enjoy the episode. Welcome to Crash Course, a podcast

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Speaker 1: about business, political, and social disruption and what we can

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Speaker 1: learn from it. I'm Tim O'Brien. Today's Crash Course Biden

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Speaker 1: Trump and a presidency in play. The first act in

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Speaker 1: the Republican Party's presidential primary season. The Iowa CAUCUSUS has

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Speaker 1: come and gone. Other contests in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Michigan,

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Speaker 1: and the collection of fifteen Super Tuesday states all lie ahead.

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump registered a resounding win in Iowa. If polls

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Speaker 1: are to be believed, he is situated to easily continue

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Speaker 1: his sprint to the GOP nomination, the flag bearer of

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Speaker 1: a party shaping itself in his image. Just a year

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Speaker 1: or so ago, mired in legal prosecutions and memories of

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Speaker 1: the January sixth Insurrection, Trump appeared to be politically spent.

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Speaker 1: Voters didn't seem to want to give him another chance

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Speaker 1: to torch the Constitution. Iowa at least has proven that

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Speaker 1: to be wrong. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden, who has presided

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Speaker 1: over a robust and expanding an economy undercut by a

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Speaker 1: savage bout of inflation, a rational and globally minded approach

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Speaker 1: to foreign policy in the time of war, and a

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Speaker 1: lackluster approach to immigration, comes to the race with strengths

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Speaker 1: and weaknesses. A lot does it stake in the race

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Speaker 1: for the White House. And joining me to discuss the

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Speaker 1: presidential battle is Nancy Cook, a stellar political reporter for

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg News. She has covered both the Trump and Biden

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Speaker 1: white Houses, and she has a wealth of knowledge to share.

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Speaker 2: Greetings Nancy, Oh, thanks so much for having me Tim.

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Speaker 1: I want to talk a little bit as we get

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Speaker 1: into this about your background, because you have an interesting

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Speaker 1: path into your current and powerful role, and I always

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Speaker 1: wonder what a nice person like you did to wind

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Speaker 1: up in this dirty little business we inhabit. So tell

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Speaker 1: me a little bit about your first job covering politics,

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Speaker 1: when and where was that.

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Speaker 2: So, my first job out of journalism school was actually

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Speaker 2: at a tiny paper in Massachusetts called The New Bedford

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Speaker 2: standard times. It's a gritty, old fishing town that has

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Speaker 2: seen much better days. A downtown was cut off by

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Speaker 2: a highway. There's a ton of poverty. There's a big

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Speaker 2: drug epidemic there. It's a huge fishing port. There's a

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Speaker 2: huge migrant population there that works in these fish houses

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Speaker 2: on the waterfront. It's basically a place that a lot

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Speaker 2: of people drive through on their way to Cape Cod.

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Speaker 2: But it is an extremely gritty, sort of formerly powerful

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Speaker 2: industrial whaling city that has fallen on very hard times.

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Speaker 2: And so I worked there for two years when I

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Speaker 2: was in my twenties, and I do think that that

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Speaker 2: made me very scrappy, because you know, there was twelve

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Speaker 2: reporters on staff. I wrote eight stories a week. I

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Speaker 2: covered local politics. And the thing is when you cover

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Speaker 2: local politics in Massachusetts, which is the place that people

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Speaker 2: really care about politics, you also run into like the

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Speaker 2: selectmen that you cover at the coffee shop, and you

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Speaker 2: know when you're getting lunch, and so everybody gives you

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Speaker 2: feedback all the time on your stories. And I definitely

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Speaker 2: think it made me realize that journalism is about covering things,

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Speaker 2: but it's not just about the horse race. It's really

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Speaker 2: about what happens in people's lives, and there's a great

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Speaker 2: responsibility to that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I would argue actually that the horse race coverage

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Speaker 1: off an eclipses coverage of real policy issues that have

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Speaker 1: a direct and pivotal impact on voters' lives, and we

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Speaker 1: could do better to tilt more in that direction than

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Speaker 1: sometimes we do. But we're in an election season and

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Speaker 1: you've covered obviously national elections before. Was your first national

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Speaker 1: reporting job at MPR in two thousand and eight or

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Speaker 1: do I have the timeline wrong?

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Speaker 2: No, that's right, And so I ended up at NPER

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Speaker 2: in two thousand and eight as a producer during the

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Speaker 2: electtion that Obama won. It was super historic and I

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Speaker 2: learned so much on that campaign. But one thing that

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Speaker 2: I did realize was that horse race politics sort of

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Speaker 2: failed us a little bit in that election, because I

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Speaker 2: do remember that fall of two thousand and eight, there

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Speaker 2: was a huge financial crisis, you have to remember, and

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Speaker 2: I remember sitting in a big meeting at NPR. You know,

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Speaker 2: it was a very low level employee there, and everyone

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Speaker 2: was trying to figure out how to cover the financial

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Speaker 2: crisis in terms of the presidential race, and political reporters

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Speaker 2: really didn't know what they were doing then, because the

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Speaker 2: financial crisis and the economic downturn that came about really

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Speaker 2: was so much bigger and ended up influencing the campaign

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Speaker 2: quite a bit. John McCain, who was Obama's challenger at

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Speaker 2: that point, was really caught flat footed by that. And

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Speaker 2: so after that I took a break from covering politics

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Speaker 2: for a few years and covered business and economics in

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Speaker 2: New York and then in DC, and sort of having

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Speaker 2: that background in economic policy in business really ended up

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Speaker 2: informing me quite a bit when I went back to

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Speaker 2: political reporting in twenty sixteen, And I do think that

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Speaker 2: that has been really a hallmark of my journalism career,

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Speaker 2: is sort of this blending of politics and policy, and

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Speaker 2: that's really what interests me the most.

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Speaker 1: And in twenty sixteen you were at Politico. Obviously that

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Speaker 1: was an epic race for any number of reasons, but

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Speaker 1: that was obviously Donald Trump's great debut on national political landscape.

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Speaker 1: Were you aware during that election that this essentially seismic

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Speaker 1: moment had arrived or did it sort of reveal itself

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Speaker 1: more gradually to you?

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Speaker 2: It revealed itself a little bit more gradually in twenty

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Speaker 2: sixteen that fall Politico assigned me and another reporter to

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Speaker 2: basically get to know all of the Trump transition people.

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Speaker 2: And the transition people are the people who will like

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Speaker 2: go in, you know, if someone wins and sort of

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Speaker 2: form the government initially, and it was funny because I

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Speaker 2: got to know all of them well because they didn't

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Speaker 2: think they were going to win, you know, even the

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Speaker 2: people around tru But you know, you have to remember,

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Speaker 2: in twenty sixteen, the people are on Trump and the

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Speaker 2: people who were closest to Trump did not think he

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Speaker 2: was going to win the twenty sixteen election. They were

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Speaker 2: surprised by that. So I think the media was surprised,

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Speaker 2: Trump was surprised, and I think all of Republican politics

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Speaker 2: was surprised. And it's never been the same since.

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Speaker 1: What were the biggest changes, And not necessarily exactly in

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Speaker 1: twenty sixteen, but during the evolution of the Trump presidency

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Speaker 1: in the White House, I mean, we're aware of Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump as a in my mind, you know, a cartoon

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Speaker 1: figure willing to burn down certain civic norms to have

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Speaker 1: his way. I think that's been on steroids more recently,

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Speaker 1: but we can get to that. But beyond Trump as

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Speaker 1: a kind of human phenomenon and someone bursting the seams

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Speaker 1: of traditional presidencies and raising the specter of authoritarian rule,

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Speaker 1: et cetera, et cetera. What other sort of foundational changes

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Speaker 1: did you see in that twenty sixteen to twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: period that made that political era in that White House

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Speaker 1: different from other presidential races and administrations you had covered.

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Speaker 2: Well, it was just wild that he won the presidency.

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Speaker 2: I mean, he you know, had sort of no organization,

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Speaker 2: you know, in twenty sixteen in Iowa, he had like

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Speaker 2: no field operation, no one there, you know, no one

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Speaker 2: there to speak up for him at caucuses. And he

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Speaker 2: did lose the Iowa caucuses in twenty sixteen to Senator

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Speaker 2: Ted Cruz of Texas, but it was only by six

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Speaker 2: thousand votes. And he really changed the Republican Party in

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Speaker 2: twenty sixteen. He was able to speak to the working

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Speaker 2: class in a way that Republicans hadn't. He shed a

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Speaker 2: lot of the conventions that Republicans had been talking about

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Speaker 2: for years, Like he didn't want to cut social Security

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Speaker 2: in Medicare, which is what all these other Republicans like

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Speaker 2: Paul Ryan had been talking about for years. He wanted

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Speaker 2: to protect that. He talked about trade. He basically changed

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Speaker 2: the way Republicans talk about trade. Forever Republicans used to

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Speaker 2: be sort of these country club people who wanted to

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Speaker 2: cut taxes and believed in free trade. He doesn't, you know,

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Speaker 2: he really believes in this whole different trade policy of

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Speaker 2: putting punishing tariffs on other countries, really punishing China and

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Speaker 2: going after them, and that has informed not just the

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Speaker 2: Republican Party, but Democrats too, And then within his White

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Speaker 2: House he continued with that. He changed the nature of

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Speaker 2: immigration and how it looked. He was much more about

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Speaker 2: closing borders, restricting the number of people that could come here.

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Speaker 2: Trade was a huge thing. You know. I can't overstate

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Speaker 2: enough the extent to which he has remade the whole

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Speaker 2: Republican Party in his image and his policy philosophy. And

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Speaker 2: that started in twenty sixteen, and when he took the

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Speaker 2: White House it was just, you know, really took off well.

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Speaker 1: And in many ways, it's not about a fully coherent

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Speaker 1: set of governing principles or policy principles. It is about

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Speaker 1: fostering this idea, almost a cult of personality around Trump himself,

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Speaker 1: which I don't think the Republican Party had ever done before.

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Speaker 1: They obviously had people who had great emotional connections with

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Speaker 1: their voters. I think of Ronald Reagan, for example, or

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Speaker 1: Dwight Eisenhower, or even George W. Bush in the early

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Speaker 1: part of his first term in office. Having said all

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Speaker 1: of that, Trump leaves his mark on this party, but

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Speaker 1: he still loses in twenty twenty. And in your mind,

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Speaker 1: why did he lose that race.

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Speaker 2: I think he lost that race because of COVID. You

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Speaker 2: know I covered that race and he honestly, before COVID hit,

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Speaker 2: it seemed like he was on track to win. The

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Speaker 2: economy was doing very well, He was doing well in polls.

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Speaker 2: I remember Biden was nothing in Iowa Genmine. Reporters who

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Speaker 2: saw him there for the Democratic caucuses in twenty twenty

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Speaker 2: thought he seemed tired. He didn't seem like he was

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Speaker 2: with it. He was not drawing big crowds. But then

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Speaker 2: COVID hit in twenty twenty. In February, we really started

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Speaker 2: to see the first hints that this would be a

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Speaker 2: global problem. And then things started to shut down in March, schools, businesses,

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Speaker 2: the whole world change. And Trump responded very poorly to that.

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Speaker 2: He did not want to do mask mandates. He started

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Speaker 2: warring with his health officials. It didn't seem like he

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Speaker 2: took it seriously. He gave these pretty crazy two hour

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Speaker 2: COVID briefings where he urged people to inject themselves with

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Speaker 2: bleach like it just it became off the rails. And

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Speaker 2: you know, a lot of the infighting in his White

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Speaker 2: House or the influence of family members like Jared Kushner

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Speaker 2: was really laid bare during that time period, and they

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Speaker 2: could not come up with an effective COVID response. Tons

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Speaker 2: of people were dying. It's funny because they did actually

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Speaker 2: help develop the COVID vaccine very quickly, and I think

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Speaker 2: that if his earlier response had been more measured and

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Speaker 2: more tempered, that he would have potentially won reelection and

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Speaker 2: gotten credit for the COVID vaccine and its development. But

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Speaker 2: the public handling of it seemed like a disaster. I

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Speaker 2: think Americans felt tired of the chaos in the middle

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Speaker 2: of a global pandemic, and you have to remember that summer,

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Speaker 2: in addition to facing a global pandemic, there was a

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Speaker 2: ton of unrest. George Floyd was murdered by Minneapolis Police

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Speaker 2: Office us her people were protesting in the street. People

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Speaker 2: were mad about race relations in the country, and it

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Speaker 2: just felt like Donald Trump was adding fuel to the

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Speaker 2: fire rather than resolving it, you know, leading the country

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Speaker 2: in the extreme times of turmoil. And you know, he's

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Speaker 2: never been a president for the whole country. He's always

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Speaker 2: been a president that really speaks to his supporters, and

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Speaker 2: that became very apparent during that time.

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Speaker 1: He also was impeached twice. He escaped that, but there

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Speaker 1: were also two impeachments. And the other thing I think

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Speaker 1: about COVID is he was sort of trapped by this

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Speaker 1: populis fervor he had helped unleash because I think there

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Speaker 1: was this widespread belief that government couldn't be a force

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Speaker 1: for good, You couldn't necessarily put your faith in government

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Speaker 1: solutions to big problems, and COVID really demanded the kind

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Speaker 1: of effort that I think ultimately got the country back

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Speaker 1: on the right track, which was this public private partnership

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Speaker 1: that resulted in the creation of the COVID vaccines. And

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Speaker 1: I think he knew in his books he couldn't really

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Speaker 1: embrace something like that right out of the gates because

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Speaker 1: it ran contradictory to the sentiment of his populace base.

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Speaker 1: And much of his own rhetoric about government getting in

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Speaker 1: people's ways. We wind up with that with Joe Biden

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Speaker 1: in the White House, and you've now covered Joe Biden

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Speaker 1: for the last three and a half years or so.

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Speaker 1: What kind of a report card would you give Biden.

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Speaker 2: Well, I think that Biden has done a ton of things, actually,

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Speaker 2: but his White House has really struggled with selling it

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Speaker 2: and sort of making that apparent to people. You have

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Speaker 2: to remember they've passed a sweeping infrastructure law. They responded

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Speaker 2: to COVID, Well, they got it under control. They sent

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Speaker 2: a bunch of money to schools to reopen. They made

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Speaker 2: sure people had vaccines, they made sure people had tests.

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Speaker 2: You know. He had passed the Chips Act, which helps

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Speaker 2: basically bring a lot of manufacturing of pretty key things

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Speaker 2: to the US like semi conductors and chips. He canceled

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Speaker 2: student loan debt that has been blocked by courts, but

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Speaker 2: the Department of Education is still managing to do a

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Speaker 2: bunch of that stuff in a regulatory way. He appointed

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Speaker 2: the first black Supreme Court justice who's a woman. That's

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Speaker 2: a huge accomplishment that the left has really wanted. The

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Speaker 2: list sort of goes on and on. But for whatever reason,

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Speaker 2: and I think it's mostly both the people around Biden

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Speaker 2: but Biden himself, they have not been able to sell

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Speaker 2: the American people on that record. Biden has never been

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Speaker 2: a great orator. He's not an Obama figure. You know,

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Speaker 2: he doesn't go out there and give these amazing speeches.

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Speaker 2: He's more like a grandpa who has a lot of

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Speaker 2: gaffes and makes the same old jokes. And the people

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Speaker 2: around him too. You know, it's a very insular group.

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Speaker 2: They have been together for a long time, and I

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Speaker 2: would say one of my critiques of covering them is

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Speaker 2: that they can be very insular and move slowly. And

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Speaker 2: so for instance, when we see things like a low

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Speaker 2: approval rating, you know, he's having problems in swing states

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Speaker 2: with voters. These are like flashing warning signs for this

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Speaker 2: upcoming election. And what they're choosing to do is sort

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Speaker 2: of double down and blame the media or defensive rather

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Speaker 2: than realize this is going to be a tough election

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Speaker 2: for them.

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Speaker 1: And now the first sort of litmus test of that

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Speaker 1: is what happened in the recent Iowa caucuses, in which

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump, after not really actively campaigning in the state,

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Speaker 1: though he had a much more robust ground operation than

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Speaker 1: he had in the past, which I think is something

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Speaker 1: we can talk about later in the show, because that

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Speaker 1: also should be a warning sign to the Biden crew

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Speaker 1: from a purely competitive standpoint, But he is not physically

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Speaker 1: in the state very much, but he dominates the polls,

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Speaker 1: he dominates the sentiment of voters, and he winds up

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Speaker 1: with a thirty point victory over the second place finisher,

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Speaker 1: Ron de Santis, and slightly more than that over NICKI Haley,

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Speaker 1: who finishes in third place. All of the other Republican

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Speaker 1: condenders have dropped out of the race so very quickly.

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Speaker 1: Now it is Trump versus DeSantis versus Haley. And I

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Speaker 1: think Trump was expected to romp in Iowa. But what

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Speaker 1: else came out of the Iowa caucuses that surprised you

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Speaker 1: despite the sort of foregone conclusion that Trump was going

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Speaker 1: to be the victor.

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Speaker 2: There well two things. One, I think that it's not

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Speaker 2: just that he won the Iowa caucuses. It's said he

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Speaker 2: did well with almost every demographic group that includes. He

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Speaker 2: did well with all of the age groups. He did

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Speaker 2: well all across Iowa rural areas, suburban areas. Do you

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Speaker 2: know what I mean, he just did well. He's always

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Speaker 2: been a president who has spoken to the working class.

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Speaker 2: He did well with college educated Republicans. I mean, he

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Speaker 2: is really just has a commanding lead among Republicans across

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Speaker 2: the board. And I think that's very hard for his

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Speaker 2: rivals to catch up to because it's not like, you know,

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Speaker 2: they can pick off, Oh, well, he's just the working

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Speaker 2: class guy, but I'll get the college age Republicans. It's like, nope,

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Speaker 2: Nikki Haley got some college age Republicans, but Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: got the same amount. Like he's just doing well with

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Speaker 2: every group. So I think that that is a real

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Speaker 2: lesson to take away, that there is a depth of

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Speaker 2: support therefore him that is pretty remarkable. The second thing

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Speaker 2: is just that I think Republican voters and voters in general,

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Speaker 2: as we've seen in the swing state polls, sort of

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Speaker 2: have amnesia about some of the things that he's done.

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Speaker 2: Like people don't really talk about January sixth that much.

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Speaker 2: There's a bunch of polling that shows that a huge

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Speaker 2: soauthor Republican Party does not think that January sixth was

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Speaker 2: a problem anymore. And so he has also been very

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Speaker 2: successful at rewriting the history of what happened sort of

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Speaker 2: after the election in twenty twenty, what he was responsible for,

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Speaker 2: and I think that we'll see that moving forward.

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Speaker 1: Would a candidate in the past be forgiven for inciting

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Speaker 1: an insurrection of the capitol, for several civil and criminal indictments,

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Speaker 1: for being charged with more than ninety crimes. My feeling

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Speaker 1: is absolutely not. So something in the water has changed,

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Speaker 1: and I'd be curious to know how. Despite all of

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Speaker 1: that important baggage that Trump carries, as well as his

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Speaker 1: sort of own proclamations that he might be a dictator

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Speaker 1: for a day or more, maybe he'll serve another term

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Speaker 1: beyond this one, etc. Etc. All the warning signs are there,

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Speaker 1: and yet it doesn't really affect his standing at all

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Speaker 1: with his base and now with an expanding part of

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Speaker 1: the Republican electorate as Iowa is shown.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's been fascinating. And I talked with a bunch

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Speaker 2: of polsters in Iowa who have asked questions about if

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Speaker 2: he is convicted on any one of these ninety one

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Speaker 2: charges that he faces, will that hurt him? And they

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Speaker 2: all said no, you know, they do not expect him

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Speaker 2: to hurt him. So it's hard to see, like where

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Speaker 2: The breaking point is. I have been at a bunch

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Speaker 2: of Trump events in the past year, and what I

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Speaker 2: have marveled at is his ability to turn his misfortune

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Speaker 2: to a political advantage. He is out there at rallies

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Speaker 2: telling people, I am being prosecuted because of you. I

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Speaker 2: am a victim, I am fighting for you, and these

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Speaker 2: people believe it. You know. I was at an event

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Speaker 2: in Florida that he did this fall. There was someone

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Speaker 2: who had been to sixty rallies. You know, people really

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Speaker 2: view it almost like a grateful dead show. They come.

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Speaker 2: It's like a sense of community. It's a movement. People

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Speaker 2: come to the rallies to see people that they've seen

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Speaker 2: at other rallies. They wear T shirts. It's not really

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Speaker 2: just like a political rally. It is almost like a concert.

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Speaker 2: And he has been so successful at flipping the script

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Speaker 2: around on his criminal charges and making it sort of

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Speaker 2: all about him and to his political advantage. And I

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Speaker 2: will tell you his campaign officials are delighted by this.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I think the idea of I'm a victim too.

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Speaker 1: I know what it's like to be persecuted. Even though

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump has walked through life with enormous embedded advantages,

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Speaker 1: he's a white male. He's a wealthy white male. He's

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Speaker 1: had these various rings of protection around him his whole life,

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Speaker 1: his father's wealth, celebrity, now the White House. But he

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Speaker 1: has always sort of, I think, pitched himself historically as

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Speaker 1: the working person's idea of what you would do if

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Speaker 1: you became rich. You'd have glitzy women around you, you'd

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Speaker 1: have a triplex condo that looked like Louis the fourteenth

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Speaker 1: that built it on acid. You would have a jet

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Speaker 1: with your name on it, et cetera, et cetera, what

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Speaker 1: you do with your lot of money. And he's shrewd

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Speaker 1: about that, you know, he's built a business around that.

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Speaker 1: What's interesting, though, I guess in the electoral context to me,

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Speaker 1: is while he has this bond of shared victimhood and

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Speaker 1: presents himself as an EmPATH to his voters, he hasn't

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Speaker 1: really come up with a full set of policy solutions

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Speaker 1: that really address the very real struggles working class and

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Speaker 1: middle class Americans are contending with.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you're right, he hasn't, and I don't think that

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Speaker 2: we're going to see a ton of policy specifics from

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Speaker 2: him ahead of the election, Do you know what I mean?

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Speaker 2: I don't think we're going to hear from him what

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Speaker 2: would you do on affordable housing, for instance, what would

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Speaker 2: you do to tackle inflation. I think that his campaign

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Speaker 2: doesn't see a lot of value and offering these specifics.

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Speaker 2: I think that they're going to try to win based

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Speaker 2: on this personality cult that he has and based on

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Speaker 2: the connection that he has forged with his base of

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Speaker 2: working class voters. But this expanding base, which we've already

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Speaker 2: talked about, and that's really going to be coupled with

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Speaker 2: an intense organization this time. They're very organized on the ground.

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Speaker 2: That's going to be how they're going to win the election.

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Speaker 1: On that note, I wanted just tilt to a break

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Speaker 1: here from one of our sponsors, and then we'll come

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Speaker 1: right back and pick up this very interesting conversation. I'm

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Speaker 1: back with Nancy Cook, who's educating me and you, I

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Speaker 1: hope about the presidential primary season that just kicked off. Nancy,

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Speaker 1: we were just talking about Trump's win in Iowa and

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Speaker 1: the fact that he demographically scored very well with groups

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Speaker 1: who had conventionally been seen as not having an affinity

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Speaker 1: for him. Of interest to me is college educated Republican

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Speaker 1: voters which were seen as sort of the province of

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Speaker 1: Nicki Haley, and Nikki Haley has closed within several percentage

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Speaker 1: points of Trump in New Hampshire, though that might be

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Speaker 1: her high water mark in this whole campaign. But New

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Speaker 1: Hampshire's a very different Republican electorate than Iowa. New Hampshire

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Speaker 1: has more educated Republican voters, more affluent Republican voters than Iowa.

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Speaker 1: So it's a very different kind of case. But I

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Speaker 1: wanted to ask you where does Iowa leave Nicki Haley?

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Speaker 1: And if she doesn't really have a standout show in

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Speaker 1: New Hampshire, you know, her next step is in South Carolina,

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Speaker 1: her home state where she was governor, And if Trump

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Speaker 1: beats her in South Carolina, I don't see how she

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Speaker 1: extends her campaign beyond South Carolina. But I want to

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Speaker 1: know what you think about that. And you know what

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Speaker 1: we could possibly expect to see in New Hampshire and

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Speaker 1: South Carolina with her.

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Speaker 2: So Nicki Hailey has spent a ton of time in

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Speaker 2: New Hampshire over the last year, and New Hampshire people

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Speaker 2: like her, you know, her more moderate style really speaks

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Speaker 2: to them. Also, you have to remember that independence and

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Speaker 2: Democrats can you know, switch over and vote in the

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Speaker 2: New Hampshire primary, the New Hampshire Republican primary. And so

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Speaker 2: if a bunch of Independents and Democrats come out to

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Speaker 2: vote for her in New Hampshire and she can pick

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Speaker 2: up some of the supporters from Chris Christy, you know,

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Speaker 2: who just dropped out of the race recently, that could

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Speaker 2: really help her. You know, she is closing in on

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Speaker 2: Trump in the polling, but I'm just not sure it

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Speaker 2: will be enough for her to beat him. I'm not

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Speaker 2: on the ground in New Hampshire. I'm sort of in

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Speaker 2: between Iowa and New Hampshire now, so I'll have to

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Speaker 2: see what it looks like when I'm on the ground there,

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Speaker 2: But I would be surprised if she overtakes him. And

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Speaker 2: then the tricky thing is is that he is still

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Speaker 2: pulling at a huge advantage in South Carolina, her home state,

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Speaker 2: and is definitely expected to win there. And so really

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Speaker 2: I think her best chance to do well and beat

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Speaker 2: him would be in New Hampshire. And if she does that,

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Speaker 2: you know, it could change the tone of the race.

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Speaker 2: I think it could show some Republicans that maybe Trump

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Speaker 2: isn't as invincible. But the Trump campaign is banking on

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Speaker 2: the fact that Nikki Haley does not have enough of

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Speaker 2: a base in the Republican Party to actually get a

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Speaker 2: path to the nomination. That New Hampshire will proper up

434
00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:13,960
Speaker 2: potentially because of Democrats and independence, but that won't be

435
00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:15,440
Speaker 2: the strategy in South Carolina.

436
00:23:16,280 --> 00:23:18,920
Speaker 1: And did you pick up that vibe in Iowa? Obviously

437
00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:22,439
Speaker 1: you were sort of on an Arctic tundra there. You know,

438
00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:25,639
Speaker 1: there was sub zero temperatures, there was a blizzard. It

439
00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:29,120
Speaker 1: affected turnout. I think only slightly more than fourteen percent

440
00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:32,919
Speaker 1: of registered Republican voters actually turned out to vote in

441
00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:36,160
Speaker 1: the caucuses there. What was it like on the ground

442
00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:38,720
Speaker 1: in terms of just the sentiment you were able to

443
00:23:38,720 --> 00:23:42,719
Speaker 1: pick up on in Iowa about Trump and Haley and DeSantis.

444
00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:46,840
Speaker 2: Well, I would say when I was in Iowa, Trump

445
00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:49,720
Speaker 2: just still seemed really dominant. And you know, I talked

446
00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:53,040
Speaker 2: with some business leaders in Iowa who I think didn't

447
00:23:53,119 --> 00:23:56,920
Speaker 2: necessarily want to support Trump again, but were already sort

448
00:23:56,960 --> 00:23:59,199
Speaker 2: of getting back in line because they viewed him as

449
00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:03,240
Speaker 2: the inevitable nine. Nikki Haley really surged in the polls

450
00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:06,720
Speaker 2: in Iowa within the last few weeks, and there was

451
00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:09,439
Speaker 2: some pulling a few days before the caucus that showed

452
00:24:09,480 --> 00:24:12,080
Speaker 2: that she could have potentially come in second, but that

453
00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:14,920
Speaker 2: support was pretty soft, you know, it wasn't people who

454
00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:18,000
Speaker 2: showed the same enthusiasm level that they did for Trump,

455
00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:20,760
Speaker 2: and so I think the bad weather really hurt her.

456
00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:23,680
Speaker 2: She also did not have as much of a ground

457
00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:26,960
Speaker 2: game as DeSantis or Trump did. You have to remember that,

458
00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:29,359
Speaker 2: like she was surging in the Iowa polls kind of late.

459
00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:32,320
Speaker 2: She got some money from the Koch Brothers a little

460
00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:35,560
Speaker 2: bit late. So her ground game in Iowa and Iowa

461
00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:37,880
Speaker 2: is so much about a ground game, like making sure

462
00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:40,640
Speaker 2: people would basically just go to the caucuses. I think

463
00:24:40,640 --> 00:24:42,600
Speaker 2: she was just a little late with the organization to

464
00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:45,840
Speaker 2: do well. You know, DeSantis has a lot of problems.

465
00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:48,600
Speaker 2: His campaign has had a ton of turmoil. The candidate

466
00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:50,760
Speaker 2: himself can be pretty awkward. He has a hard time

467
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:53,520
Speaker 2: connecting with people. I heard this from Iowan's both you know,

468
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:56,399
Speaker 2: sort of leaders in the Iowa Republican Party but also

469
00:24:56,600 --> 00:24:58,800
Speaker 2: just rank and file people who I spoke with it

470
00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:01,600
Speaker 2: rallies and events the days leading up to it. But

471
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:04,679
Speaker 2: he did have a really strong ground game and I

472
00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:07,320
Speaker 2: think that helped him in Iowa. I mean, his campaign

473
00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:09,960
Speaker 2: was like offering to shovel people's driveways and they needed it.

474
00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:12,240
Speaker 1: See. That's why I want them to take a campaign

475
00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:14,679
Speaker 1: more near my house. You know. The one other thing

476
00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:16,199
Speaker 1: I want to sort of think about with Haley is

477
00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:19,040
Speaker 1: Chris Sununu, the governor of New Hampshire, has thrown his

478
00:25:19,080 --> 00:25:22,479
Speaker 1: support very strongly and visibly behind her, but he has

479
00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:24,879
Speaker 1: also said that if she ends up not being the candidate,

480
00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:27,480
Speaker 1: he's going to support Trump. And I think that that's

481
00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:30,440
Speaker 1: a kind of drum roll you're going to hear across

482
00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:33,720
Speaker 1: much of the Republican Party that even people who have

483
00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:36,080
Speaker 1: been openly critical of Donald Trump and call him a

484
00:25:36,119 --> 00:25:40,240
Speaker 1: threat to democracy and a buffoon and a racist, et cetera,

485
00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:43,560
Speaker 1: et cetera, when push comes to shove and the political

486
00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:46,840
Speaker 1: stakes are at play. And I still find this mysterious,

487
00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:49,639
Speaker 1: but they're willing to throw in with him, and I

488
00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:53,320
Speaker 1: think that that might become visible in New Hampshire. With DeSantis,

489
00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:56,600
Speaker 1: it was interesting to me in Iowa. He gets beaten

490
00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:58,920
Speaker 1: by thirty points, but he said, you know, I still

491
00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:02,040
Speaker 1: got my ticket punch. Here we go. But he obviously

492
00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:04,840
Speaker 1: got that ticket punch for South Carolina because he's not

493
00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:08,160
Speaker 1: going to New Hampshire at all, and so South Carolina

494
00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:09,480
Speaker 1: could be in the end of the road for him

495
00:26:09,520 --> 00:26:09,960
Speaker 1: as well.

496
00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:12,720
Speaker 2: Couldn't it. Yeah, he is going to New Hampshire. He

497
00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:15,600
Speaker 2: just went to South Carolina first after Iowa. But he's

498
00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:18,320
Speaker 2: not expected to do well in New Hampshire. Some recent

499
00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:21,240
Speaker 2: polling had him pulling like fourth or even fifth behind

500
00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:24,239
Speaker 2: Chris Christy before Christy dropped out, and so we're not

501
00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:26,240
Speaker 2: expecting him to do well in New Hampshire. He's going

502
00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:28,800
Speaker 2: to kind of make his last stand in South Carolina.

503
00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:31,359
Speaker 2: You have to remember the Desanta's people, though, there's always

504
00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:33,879
Speaker 2: like a lot of chest slumping, then a lot of bravado,

505
00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:36,840
Speaker 2: but never back down, which is the super pack that

506
00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:40,560
Speaker 2: did all the ground game in Iowa started laying people off,

507
00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:42,760
Speaker 2: so you know, there's always a lot of bravado there,

508
00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:44,640
Speaker 2: but then they end up doing layoffs because they're running

509
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:46,480
Speaker 2: out of money. So I know they say they want

510
00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:48,399
Speaker 2: to go through South Carolina, which is at the end

511
00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:51,040
Speaker 2: of February. I do not know if they will actually

512
00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:52,840
Speaker 2: have the money to do that, which is.

513
00:26:52,840 --> 00:26:56,920
Speaker 1: Pretty amazing given the windfall Ronda Santa's had coming into

514
00:26:56,920 --> 00:26:59,399
Speaker 1: this campaign. A big portion of which they appear to

515
00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:01,639
Speaker 1: have spent on the jets, so maybe they'll learn some

516
00:27:01,680 --> 00:27:05,960
Speaker 1: discipline the next time around. After South Carolina, I think

517
00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:08,240
Speaker 1: Michigan is one of the next big votes, and then

518
00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:11,520
Speaker 1: we hit this collection of more than a dozen Super

519
00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:15,520
Speaker 1: Tuesday states in early March. But prior to even Super Tuesday,

520
00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:19,040
Speaker 1: Trump could have this wrapped up. Is this a primary

521
00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:21,600
Speaker 1: season in which the primaries don't really matter?

522
00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:26,119
Speaker 2: I mean, I just think that Trump basically broke the primary,

523
00:27:26,280 --> 00:27:30,080
Speaker 2: you know, similar to the way he broke Republican politics

524
00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:33,080
Speaker 2: and reshaped it in his own image and broke Republican

525
00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:36,120
Speaker 2: policy long standing policy and trade and immigration and all

526
00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:38,520
Speaker 2: these things, he has broken the primary. You know. He's

527
00:27:38,520 --> 00:27:41,040
Speaker 2: done it totally differently, and I will be curious to

528
00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:43,560
Speaker 2: see if anyone ever does it the same again. He

529
00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:46,399
Speaker 2: did not campaign extensively in Iowa until sort of the

530
00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:50,040
Speaker 2: very final stretch. He is campaigning in New Hampshire a

531
00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:52,040
Speaker 2: lot this week, but hasn't spent a ton of time

532
00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:54,680
Speaker 2: up there. And you have to remember that he's basically

533
00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:58,080
Speaker 2: merging his campaign at this point with all these courthouse appearances,

534
00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:01,160
Speaker 2: and he's trying to sort of turn the courthouse appearances

535
00:28:01,240 --> 00:28:04,680
Speaker 2: and speaking after into their own little mini campaign rally.

536
00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:07,560
Speaker 2: But he has totally changed the nature of the primary.

537
00:28:07,600 --> 00:28:10,639
Speaker 2: You know. Also, big donors aren't really backing him, and

538
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:14,040
Speaker 2: it doesn't matter. He has a bunch of people who

539
00:28:14,080 --> 00:28:16,640
Speaker 2: give ten dollars and twenty dollars, you know, all these

540
00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:20,080
Speaker 2: people around the country, and that's what's fooling his candidacy.

541
00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:22,520
Speaker 2: One of the most interesting things this cycle is I

542
00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:25,239
Speaker 2: have never seen such a gap between what sort of

543
00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:29,000
Speaker 2: upper middle class and wealthy Republicans want from the Republican

544
00:28:29,119 --> 00:28:32,360
Speaker 2: primary and what everyone else wants. You know, there's all

545
00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:35,120
Speaker 2: these super rich donors who are berefed that it's going

546
00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:37,520
Speaker 2: to be Trump again, or have been, and they've been

547
00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:39,560
Speaker 2: trying to back to Santis or Nikki Heely but it

548
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:42,640
Speaker 2: hasn't been working. They don't want Trump, but he's still

549
00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:44,080
Speaker 2: likely going to be the nominee.

550
00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:47,200
Speaker 1: Why don't they want Trump. He's going to cut their taxes,

551
00:28:47,800 --> 00:28:51,360
Speaker 1: He'll loosen regulations on their businesses. On the other hand,

552
00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:55,440
Speaker 1: he is retrogressive in many ways about global trade, and

553
00:28:55,480 --> 00:29:00,760
Speaker 1: he's probably not, in the most charitable analysis, do anything

554
00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 1: to really improve national security. I know he positions himself

555
00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:06,600
Speaker 1: as better on this issue. Than Biden. But the reality

556
00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:09,200
Speaker 1: is he is ignorant of foreign affairs and hasn't really

557
00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:13,000
Speaker 1: developed any kind of a consistent policy about some of

558
00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:16,239
Speaker 1: the global security threats we face. So what is it

559
00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:22,560
Speaker 1: that wealthy educated Republicans who can't bring themselves to vote

560
00:29:22,560 --> 00:29:25,400
Speaker 1: for a Democrat but can't detest Trump? What aren't they

561
00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:29,280
Speaker 1: getting from Trump that they want? Is it simply civility

562
00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:31,000
Speaker 1: or does it go beyond that.

563
00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:34,040
Speaker 2: I actually don't think it's civility. I mean, I think

564
00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:37,160
Speaker 2: we're just giving everyone way too much credit. I think

565
00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:41,280
Speaker 2: it's actually just that his white House was chaotic. Every

566
00:29:41,360 --> 00:29:45,280
Speaker 2: day was sort of this remarkable fight between different factions

567
00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:47,560
Speaker 2: in the White House. There was sort of like a

568
00:29:47,560 --> 00:29:52,200
Speaker 2: business faction or a more maga faction, and it was like,

569
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:54,480
Speaker 2: if you were a business leader, you kind of never

570
00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:57,400
Speaker 2: knew what policy was going to come out. It kind

571
00:29:57,400 --> 00:30:00,400
Speaker 2: of depended like who won the fight in the Oval

572
00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:02,880
Speaker 2: Office that day. I mean, it was really fun to

573
00:30:02,960 --> 00:30:05,400
Speaker 2: report on. But I think if you're a business leader,

574
00:30:05,760 --> 00:30:09,560
Speaker 2: you want some certainty that policies or executive orders aren't

575
00:30:09,560 --> 00:30:11,920
Speaker 2: going to come out that you like literally weren't expecting,

576
00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:14,640
Speaker 2: or that policy wouldn't change one day to the next,

577
00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:16,880
Speaker 2: and I think it's just this feeling of certainty and

578
00:30:17,000 --> 00:30:20,160
Speaker 2: a desired not to have chaos that has kept these

579
00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:22,640
Speaker 2: people from not supporting him. I do think in the

580
00:30:22,760 --> 00:30:25,360
Speaker 2: end they will get behind Trump because they would rather

581
00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:28,960
Speaker 2: have lower taxes, less regulation, and like the few parts

582
00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:31,800
Speaker 2: of sort of Republican orthodoxy that still remain. They would

583
00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:34,760
Speaker 2: rather have that than Biden. But for now they've really

584
00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:37,280
Speaker 2: been sitting it out. I also think that we may

585
00:30:37,280 --> 00:30:40,840
Speaker 2: not see some big Republican donors step into the race,

586
00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:45,080
Speaker 2: simply because if these people are involved in running public companies,

587
00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:47,600
Speaker 2: there would be big backlash from their employees if they

588
00:30:47,680 --> 00:30:50,840
Speaker 2: supported Trump. So I think these people may stay quiet,

589
00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:53,880
Speaker 2: and although they may vote for Trump, they'll sit on

590
00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:57,360
Speaker 2: the sidelines and instead get involved in things like Senate races.

591
00:30:57,560 --> 00:31:01,800
Speaker 1: And issues like Trump weaponizing Justice Department against his opponents,

592
00:31:01,880 --> 00:31:05,520
Speaker 1: or sending the US military into Mexico to resolve the

593
00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:10,880
Speaker 1: drug wars, or attacking other institutions across our civic and

594
00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:15,400
Speaker 1: academic and media and legal landscapes in the US. Those

595
00:31:15,440 --> 00:31:20,960
Speaker 1: aren't reasons for any Republicans with resources to simply say no,

596
00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:22,560
Speaker 1: I still can't do this. No.

597
00:31:22,720 --> 00:31:25,080
Speaker 2: I think people don't like those things, and I think

598
00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:27,480
Speaker 2: that people think that those are bad things. I just

599
00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:29,960
Speaker 2: think the number one thing is total chaos. They don't

600
00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:32,400
Speaker 2: want the chaos that was around him in the last

601
00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:34,360
Speaker 2: White House. And then I think a bunch of them

602
00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:37,080
Speaker 2: are really bothered by those things. You have to remember, too,

603
00:31:37,120 --> 00:31:40,840
Speaker 2: Trump is totally transactional, and he's into retribution. That's part

604
00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:43,640
Speaker 2: of his personality, and so I think that there is

605
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:45,360
Speaker 2: a fear when you're dealing with someone like that. If

606
00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:47,440
Speaker 2: you don't play ball and you don't flatter him and

607
00:31:47,520 --> 00:31:49,960
Speaker 2: his White House, he could come after you, you know,

608
00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:52,560
Speaker 2: or your industry, and so I think that is another fear.

609
00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:55,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, Ben Carson was on CNN the other night saying

610
00:31:55,480 --> 00:31:58,800
Speaker 1: that Trump doesn't really believe in vengeance and retribution. I thought, huh,

611
00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:01,200
Speaker 1: that's not that Donald Trump. I've come to know. But

612
00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:05,440
Speaker 1: we'll see. There's also been pressure on Biden over the

613
00:32:05,520 --> 00:32:08,640
Speaker 1: last year not to run and to step aside for

614
00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:14,480
Speaker 1: a younger, more vibrant, more verbally adept candidate in order

615
00:32:14,520 --> 00:32:18,720
Speaker 1: to create some energy among younger voters, energy among Latino,

616
00:32:18,840 --> 00:32:22,040
Speaker 1: Hispanic and Black voters who are slipping away at least

617
00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:25,520
Speaker 1: at the margins around the Democratic Party. Why has Biden

618
00:32:25,600 --> 00:32:28,240
Speaker 1: hung in there thus far? And do you think anything

619
00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:31,080
Speaker 1: that happened in Iowa is giving him pause?

620
00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:34,520
Speaker 2: I think Biden has hung in there so far because

621
00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:36,640
Speaker 2: you have to remember, he's always wanted to be president.

622
00:32:36,880 --> 00:32:40,240
Speaker 2: He's run for president several times, and he hasn't gotten far.

623
00:32:40,760 --> 00:32:44,040
Speaker 2: He was finally made vice president under Obama. He has

624
00:32:44,240 --> 00:32:49,480
Speaker 2: a real inferiority complex that has just been a hallmark

625
00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:51,840
Speaker 2: through his political career. There's sort of a real chip

626
00:32:51,840 --> 00:32:55,160
Speaker 2: on his shoulder about always feeling like, oh, you know,

627
00:32:55,320 --> 00:32:58,160
Speaker 2: the Obama people looked down at him when he was

628
00:32:58,200 --> 00:33:00,840
Speaker 2: in the White House as vice president there was some

629
00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:03,400
Speaker 2: tension there, and then as president. I think there's a

630
00:33:03,400 --> 00:33:05,520
Speaker 2: real chip on his shoulder. He and his team they

631
00:33:05,560 --> 00:33:07,680
Speaker 2: feel like they've done all these great things, you know,

632
00:33:07,800 --> 00:33:11,560
Speaker 2: for the country. They've changed industrial policy, the unemployment rates low,

633
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:14,320
Speaker 2: they tackle COVID well, and they feel like they're not

634
00:33:14,360 --> 00:33:16,880
Speaker 2: getting credit for it, and they're mad about it. And

635
00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:19,080
Speaker 2: I think once he got into the White House, if

636
00:33:19,080 --> 00:33:21,240
Speaker 2: it's something you've always wanted and you feel like you've

637
00:33:21,240 --> 00:33:23,160
Speaker 2: done a good job and you're not getting credit for

638
00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:25,840
Speaker 2: you're not going to walk away from it. He is

639
00:33:25,880 --> 00:33:29,080
Speaker 2: eighty one years old, and I think that he and

640
00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:31,920
Speaker 2: the people around him sort of underestimate how much the

641
00:33:32,000 --> 00:33:37,760
Speaker 2: age question weighs on voters and even donors. They're trying

642
00:33:37,800 --> 00:33:40,920
Speaker 2: to overcompensate by this by bringing donors to the White House,

643
00:33:41,000 --> 00:33:43,040
Speaker 2: you know, by having Biden meet with them and make

644
00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:45,640
Speaker 2: sure they feel good. But when I talk to people,

645
00:33:46,280 --> 00:33:48,520
Speaker 2: you know, vote for Biden at this point, I think

646
00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:52,280
Speaker 2: what's animating Democratic voters is not Biden's candidacy. It's a

647
00:33:52,320 --> 00:33:55,240
Speaker 2: threat of another Trump term. And I think people will

648
00:33:55,320 --> 00:33:58,160
Speaker 2: vote for Biden for that reason, not because people think,

649
00:33:58,240 --> 00:34:02,120
Speaker 2: oh wow, he's a perfect presidential candidate for twenty twenty four.

650
00:34:02,560 --> 00:34:03,880
Speaker 2: I want to keep supporting him.

651
00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:07,480
Speaker 1: Let's take another quick break here from a sponsor, and

652
00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:16,160
Speaker 1: we'll roll right back into this conversation. I'm back with

653
00:34:16,280 --> 00:34:19,000
Speaker 1: Nancy Cook, a Bloomberg News political reporter, and we're talking

654
00:34:19,000 --> 00:34:23,279
Speaker 1: about the Iowa caucuses, the other looming presidential primaries, and

655
00:34:23,320 --> 00:34:26,719
Speaker 1: the candidates. If, as it seems likely Nancy, that Trump

656
00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:28,480
Speaker 1: and Biden will be the nominees at the end of

657
00:34:28,560 --> 00:34:31,760
Speaker 1: all of this, how do you see them positioning themselves

658
00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:35,320
Speaker 1: against one another? How will Biden position himself against Trump,

659
00:34:35,600 --> 00:34:37,680
Speaker 1: How will Trump position himself against Biden.

660
00:34:39,360 --> 00:34:42,120
Speaker 2: So we got some glimpse of this in Iowa. I

661
00:34:42,160 --> 00:34:45,800
Speaker 2: think the Trump campaign is really going to hammer Biden

662
00:34:45,960 --> 00:34:49,200
Speaker 2: on the economy and immigration over and over again, and

663
00:34:49,239 --> 00:34:51,800
Speaker 2: those are going to be their two main themes. Trump's

664
00:34:51,800 --> 00:34:54,280
Speaker 2: aids are trying to steer him away from talking about

665
00:34:54,480 --> 00:34:57,080
Speaker 2: his view that he lost the election. They don't want

666
00:34:57,160 --> 00:34:59,839
Speaker 2: him to talk about January sixth, But they're really going

667
00:34:59,880 --> 00:35:02,880
Speaker 2: to hammer home economy the fact that they're say the

668
00:35:02,880 --> 00:35:05,200
Speaker 2: borders are too open, and those are going to be

669
00:35:05,200 --> 00:35:09,000
Speaker 2: the two main themes Biden. Those people are really banking

670
00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:11,880
Speaker 2: on the idea that democracy is at stake. They are

671
00:35:11,880 --> 00:35:15,520
Speaker 2: going to make January sixth and everything that Trump has

672
00:35:15,520 --> 00:35:17,920
Speaker 2: ever said about being a dictator for twenty four hours

673
00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:19,879
Speaker 2: like that's going to be in an ad this year.

674
00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:23,160
Speaker 2: They're also really trying to make women's reproductive rights and

675
00:35:23,200 --> 00:35:26,799
Speaker 2: the restrictions on abortion and Roe v. Wade falling as

676
00:35:26,880 --> 00:35:29,480
Speaker 2: a very key thing. You have to remember that Democrats

677
00:35:29,719 --> 00:35:33,759
Speaker 2: did much better than people anticipated in the midterms. Female

678
00:35:33,800 --> 00:35:37,040
Speaker 2: and suburban women have really turned away from Trump. That's

679
00:35:37,080 --> 00:35:40,239
Speaker 2: a weak spot for him because of abortion. And so

680
00:35:40,440 --> 00:35:43,680
Speaker 2: I would just say abortion democracy for Biden over and

681
00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:44,400
Speaker 2: over again.

682
00:35:45,200 --> 00:35:47,040
Speaker 1: Let's unpack a little bit of that. I think you know,

683
00:35:47,080 --> 00:35:50,000
Speaker 1: in Iowa, both the entrance and the exit polls show

684
00:35:50,040 --> 00:35:53,240
Speaker 1: that the top two issues were caucus goers, as you noted,

685
00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:56,360
Speaker 1: immigration and the economy, and the Trump team is obviously

686
00:35:56,440 --> 00:35:59,239
Speaker 1: latched onto that. You know, the economy. I think the

687
00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:01,880
Speaker 1: Biden team has a good story to tell if they

688
00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:05,560
Speaker 1: can figure out their messaging. Because GDP has grown, wages

689
00:36:05,600 --> 00:36:08,320
Speaker 1: have gone up, job creation has gone up. The US

690
00:36:08,440 --> 00:36:12,800
Speaker 1: is the most resilient developed post COVID economy in the world.

691
00:36:13,160 --> 00:36:15,160
Speaker 1: It's been a very good story. The stock market has

692
00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:17,920
Speaker 1: performed well, et cetera, et cetera. But there's been this

693
00:36:17,960 --> 00:36:21,000
Speaker 1: bugaboo of inflation where people, really average people feel the

694
00:36:21,040 --> 00:36:24,040
Speaker 1: economy more than pointy heads like I do at the

695
00:36:24,080 --> 00:36:26,919
Speaker 1: gas station, in the grocery store, et cetera, et cetera.

696
00:36:27,239 --> 00:36:29,480
Speaker 1: And they haven't really been able to get around that narrative.

697
00:36:29,480 --> 00:36:32,200
Speaker 1: And by the time inflation appears to have peaked and

698
00:36:32,360 --> 00:36:35,120
Speaker 1: is actually waning, but that might not be in time

699
00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:38,879
Speaker 1: for this election. Immigration, on the other hand, I don't

700
00:36:38,920 --> 00:36:41,359
Speaker 1: think the Biden administration has a good story to tell there.

701
00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:45,080
Speaker 1: It has been chaotic at the southern border. The administration

702
00:36:45,160 --> 00:36:48,520
Speaker 1: came in and didn't really try to move beyond where

703
00:36:48,520 --> 00:36:52,000
Speaker 1: the Trump administration was on this, and states that have

704
00:36:52,080 --> 00:36:56,359
Speaker 1: but the southern border feel this pain, and they've been exporting,

705
00:36:56,520 --> 00:36:59,960
Speaker 1: i think, in heinous ways for political points. They're migrants

706
00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:03,480
Speaker 1: to states like Illinois and New York and Massachusetts, Blue states.

707
00:37:03,880 --> 00:37:06,440
Speaker 1: Why hasn't the Biden administration been able to get its

708
00:37:06,520 --> 00:37:08,320
Speaker 1: act together on immigration?

709
00:37:09,239 --> 00:37:11,799
Speaker 2: Well, I think that to really deal with immigration, you'd

710
00:37:11,880 --> 00:37:14,759
Speaker 2: have to have, you know, probably some sweeping legislation come

711
00:37:14,760 --> 00:37:19,000
Speaker 2: out of Congress, and there's no sort of bipartisan appetite

712
00:37:19,040 --> 00:37:20,920
Speaker 2: to do that which you would have to, and that

713
00:37:21,000 --> 00:37:22,960
Speaker 2: has been the problem for many, many years. Like I

714
00:37:23,000 --> 00:37:25,640
Speaker 2: don't think that anyone in either party thinks, oh, immigration

715
00:37:25,800 --> 00:37:28,680
Speaker 2: is going great. There's just not really a political will

716
00:37:28,840 --> 00:37:31,719
Speaker 2: or consensus in Congress to solve it, and so that

717
00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:34,600
Speaker 2: leaves the Biden team with things that they have to

718
00:37:34,640 --> 00:37:37,239
Speaker 2: do vis a v executive order. But I do think

719
00:37:37,239 --> 00:37:39,880
Speaker 2: that they have sort of tried not to deal with

720
00:37:39,920 --> 00:37:43,080
Speaker 2: it as best they can. And what has happened is

721
00:37:43,080 --> 00:37:45,480
Speaker 2: that a bunch of these Republican governors have sent bus

722
00:37:45,560 --> 00:37:47,919
Speaker 2: loads of migrants to these blue states. As you talked

723
00:37:47,960 --> 00:37:51,160
Speaker 2: about creating crisis in New York. You know where Bloomberg

724
00:37:51,200 --> 00:37:54,680
Speaker 2: has its headquarters in Iowa. The Illinois Governor J. D.

725
00:37:54,760 --> 00:37:58,359
Speaker 2: Pritzker was there on behalf of the Biden administration sort

726
00:37:58,360 --> 00:38:02,080
Speaker 2: of trying to give a counterpro argument in the middle

727
00:38:02,120 --> 00:38:05,280
Speaker 2: of this Republican caucus as to why Democrats would be better.

728
00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:07,719
Speaker 2: But at this press conference, I was said, all these

729
00:38:07,800 --> 00:38:09,400
Speaker 2: questions that he got was what he was going to

730
00:38:09,440 --> 00:38:12,880
Speaker 2: do with migrants in Chicago. And so it is a

731
00:38:12,920 --> 00:38:15,600
Speaker 2: real problem for the Biden administration. They don't have a

732
00:38:15,600 --> 00:38:17,480
Speaker 2: good answer on it, and they've been trying to hide

733
00:38:17,480 --> 00:38:19,680
Speaker 2: from it, and the Trump people are going, I can

734
00:38:19,760 --> 00:38:22,720
Speaker 2: tell you, going to shove it down their throat again

735
00:38:22,840 --> 00:38:23,320
Speaker 2: and again.

736
00:38:24,200 --> 00:38:27,080
Speaker 1: And I think no matter how much the Biden administration says,

737
00:38:27,120 --> 00:38:30,280
Speaker 1: there's only so much we can do because there's gridlock

738
00:38:30,320 --> 00:38:34,400
Speaker 1: in Congress and Congress has to act. Republicans in Congress

739
00:38:34,480 --> 00:38:37,640
Speaker 1: are very happy to hang this particular albatross around the

740
00:38:37,640 --> 00:38:40,480
Speaker 1: White House's neck because they know the electoral points they'll

741
00:38:40,480 --> 00:38:42,840
Speaker 1: score off of it. And they're really going to be stuck.

742
00:38:42,880 --> 00:38:44,759
Speaker 1: And I don't know how they explain their way out

743
00:38:44,760 --> 00:38:46,799
Speaker 1: of that one. Getting over to the Trump side, you know,

744
00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:51,240
Speaker 1: you mentioned January sixth, democracy and reproductive rights for women,

745
00:38:51,480 --> 00:38:54,000
Speaker 1: and one of the other things that really interested me

746
00:38:54,040 --> 00:38:57,440
Speaker 1: in the entrance and exit polls in Iowa again, was

747
00:38:57,480 --> 00:38:59,960
Speaker 1: I think the top two reasons at least an entrance

748
00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:04,120
Speaker 1: polls that caucas Gooers gave for supporting Trump. The first

749
00:39:04,120 --> 00:39:07,800
Speaker 1: one was he fights for us, and the second one

750
00:39:07,920 --> 00:39:10,880
Speaker 1: is he shares our values. You know, he knows he

751
00:39:11,040 --> 00:39:14,839
Speaker 1: animates his supporters that way. He's been I think, engaging

752
00:39:14,880 --> 00:39:20,719
Speaker 1: in pretty craven spirituality, baiting, saying he's the chosen one

753
00:39:20,840 --> 00:39:23,600
Speaker 1: God sent Donald Trump to heal the voters. He has

754
00:39:23,719 --> 00:39:27,719
Speaker 1: tried to engage emotionally on almost any path, regardless of

755
00:39:27,719 --> 00:39:30,160
Speaker 1: whether it's true or not, with his voters, and it

756
00:39:30,200 --> 00:39:34,040
Speaker 1: has worked so for that voting block, things like January

757
00:39:34,080 --> 00:39:37,600
Speaker 1: six and the threat to democracy. It's falling on deaf ears.

758
00:39:38,239 --> 00:39:42,799
Speaker 1: But I do think for swing voters, independence, moderate Republicans,

759
00:39:42,840 --> 00:39:47,840
Speaker 1: conservative Democrats, January sixth and democracy are still salient issues,

760
00:39:47,880 --> 00:39:48,319
Speaker 1: aren't they.

761
00:39:48,680 --> 00:39:51,080
Speaker 2: I think that's what the Biden team is hoping. I

762
00:39:51,239 --> 00:39:53,320
Speaker 2: just think we're going to have the longest general election,

763
00:39:53,440 --> 00:39:58,520
Speaker 2: potentially ever, because if Trump wins the nomination by early

764
00:39:58,680 --> 00:40:01,520
Speaker 2: to mid March, will be have a general election fight

765
00:40:01,600 --> 00:40:04,160
Speaker 2: from March to November. That is a very long time

766
00:40:04,520 --> 00:40:06,919
Speaker 2: for Trump and Biden to sort of go after each other.

767
00:40:07,360 --> 00:40:09,720
Speaker 2: And I think that what we haven't seen is while

768
00:40:09,920 --> 00:40:13,840
Speaker 2: Trump's support among Republicans is much deeper than we thought,

769
00:40:14,360 --> 00:40:16,880
Speaker 2: you know, I'm still not totally sure once we do

770
00:40:17,000 --> 00:40:19,640
Speaker 2: hit a general election and all the media focus is

771
00:40:19,680 --> 00:40:23,799
Speaker 2: on him day after day and not like him Nikki Haley, DeSantis,

772
00:40:23,880 --> 00:40:26,880
Speaker 2: avec Ramaswami like once it's just really trained on him,

773
00:40:27,280 --> 00:40:30,319
Speaker 2: I'm not sure that like his statements or the things

774
00:40:30,320 --> 00:40:32,760
Speaker 2: that he says off the cuff at rallies or at events,

775
00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:35,000
Speaker 2: I'm just not sure how those will play with as

776
00:40:35,000 --> 00:40:39,239
Speaker 2: you said, moderates, swing state voters, suburban women like these

777
00:40:39,239 --> 00:40:41,400
Speaker 2: are people that have turned away from him in the past,

778
00:40:41,520 --> 00:40:43,600
Speaker 2: and I'll be very curious to see that, you know,

779
00:40:43,600 --> 00:40:44,600
Speaker 2: once we hit the summer.

780
00:40:44,960 --> 00:40:47,560
Speaker 1: Although he won the presidency in twenty sixteen, he has

781
00:40:47,640 --> 00:40:52,480
Speaker 1: lost every national referendum he's been engaged with since then,

782
00:40:52,560 --> 00:40:55,800
Speaker 1: the twenty eighteen midterms, the twenty twenty election, the twenty

783
00:40:55,840 --> 00:41:00,600
Speaker 1: two midterms, with more recently abortion being a real key

784
00:41:00,680 --> 00:41:03,800
Speaker 1: reason for that. That was the last sort of policy

785
00:41:03,800 --> 00:41:06,399
Speaker 1: thing I wanted to ask you about. Is that made

786
00:41:06,440 --> 00:41:09,239
Speaker 1: a big difference in the midterms. We've seen voters in

787
00:41:09,320 --> 00:41:14,200
Speaker 1: unexpected states like Kansas and Ohio really moves strongly to

788
00:41:14,280 --> 00:41:18,759
Speaker 1: protect women's access to abortion and reproductive rights. How big

789
00:41:18,800 --> 00:41:21,680
Speaker 1: a factor is that going to be in the Biden

790
00:41:21,800 --> 00:41:22,879
Speaker 1: Trump face off.

791
00:41:23,640 --> 00:41:25,399
Speaker 2: I think it's going to be huge. And the way

792
00:41:25,440 --> 00:41:29,239
Speaker 2: that immigration is probably the weakest spot for the Biden administration,

793
00:41:29,440 --> 00:41:32,360
Speaker 2: abortion is the weakest spot for Trump, but also for

794
00:41:32,440 --> 00:41:36,360
Speaker 2: all Republicans. It's interesting because Trump really tries to distance

795
00:41:36,480 --> 00:41:40,200
Speaker 2: himself from the abortion question, when in fact he appointed

796
00:41:40,200 --> 00:41:44,680
Speaker 2: the three Supreme Court justices who overturned the Dabbs decision,

797
00:41:44,719 --> 00:41:47,520
Speaker 2: which is overturned Roe v. Wade. But he really tries

798
00:41:47,560 --> 00:41:49,719
Speaker 2: to act like this is a bad issue for Republicans.

799
00:41:49,760 --> 00:41:52,000
Speaker 2: You know, I wasn't involved, like sort of a hands

800
00:41:52,000 --> 00:41:55,000
Speaker 2: off thing, and I think that that won't fly. Like

801
00:41:55,120 --> 00:41:57,359
Speaker 2: abortion is the question that he doesn't have a good

802
00:41:57,400 --> 00:41:59,359
Speaker 2: answer to on his side, and that's why I think

803
00:41:59,400 --> 00:42:01,239
Speaker 2: Democrats keep hammering him on it.

804
00:42:01,719 --> 00:42:03,319
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, On the one hand, when he says that

805
00:42:03,440 --> 00:42:05,000
Speaker 1: I had nothing to do with this, even though I

806
00:42:05,040 --> 00:42:09,240
Speaker 1: appointed the Supreme Court justices that made this happen. He also,

807
00:42:09,239 --> 00:42:12,000
Speaker 1: on other occasions talks about the Court owing him favors

808
00:42:12,920 --> 00:42:15,680
Speaker 1: for their appointment, so he wants to have it both ways.

809
00:42:16,120 --> 00:42:17,560
Speaker 1: All of this is probably going to come down to

810
00:42:17,560 --> 00:42:23,359
Speaker 1: a handful of swing states Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania,

811
00:42:23,480 --> 00:42:27,040
Speaker 1: we know them, maybe North Carolina, and then swing voters

812
00:42:27,080 --> 00:42:30,160
Speaker 1: within those states. But the sort of characteristics of the

813
00:42:30,200 --> 00:42:32,080
Speaker 1: swing voters are a little different than we've had in

814
00:42:32,120 --> 00:42:35,600
Speaker 1: past elections. Right, won't swing voters in this election actually

815
00:42:35,600 --> 00:42:37,640
Speaker 1: be younger voters and voters of color.

816
00:42:38,520 --> 00:42:40,960
Speaker 2: It will be they'll be younger voters, they'll be voters

817
00:42:41,000 --> 00:42:43,320
Speaker 2: of color. I mean, I just think, well, the Democrats

818
00:42:43,320 --> 00:42:45,960
Speaker 2: at least expect this election to be very, very close.

819
00:42:46,400 --> 00:42:49,480
Speaker 2: And it's kind of wild that our presidents at this

820
00:42:49,600 --> 00:42:52,400
Speaker 2: point are being elected by a tiny sliver of people

821
00:42:52,760 --> 00:42:57,080
Speaker 2: in basically seven states who don't have strong feelings about

822
00:42:57,080 --> 00:43:00,280
Speaker 2: Biden or Trump or it's people who hate both of them,

823
00:43:00,800 --> 00:43:02,920
Speaker 2: but they just have to decide who they hate less.

824
00:43:03,000 --> 00:43:05,279
Speaker 2: And that's kind of the electorate that we're dealing with.

825
00:43:05,640 --> 00:43:09,640
Speaker 2: There's some political scientists or longtime political operatives who call

826
00:43:09,680 --> 00:43:12,040
Speaker 2: these voters who hate both of them the double haters,

827
00:43:12,160 --> 00:43:14,759
Speaker 2: and it's like, which one do you hate? Which one

828
00:43:14,800 --> 00:43:16,680
Speaker 2: are you going to hate less in November? And that's

829
00:43:16,719 --> 00:43:19,360
Speaker 2: ultimately who's going to decide who's in the White House next.

830
00:43:19,960 --> 00:43:22,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's sort of emblematic of the United States right

831
00:43:22,480 --> 00:43:24,799
Speaker 1: now is we are judging things based on who you

832
00:43:24,880 --> 00:43:28,680
Speaker 1: hate less, not who do you love more. Unfortunately, we've

833
00:43:28,719 --> 00:43:30,480
Speaker 1: also run out of time, but I want to ask

834
00:43:30,480 --> 00:43:32,960
Speaker 1: you one last question. I always like to ask guests

835
00:43:33,000 --> 00:43:37,200
Speaker 1: what they've learned from a certain event or experience. What

836
00:43:37,360 --> 00:43:40,520
Speaker 1: have you learned thus far that you didn't know, say

837
00:43:40,600 --> 00:43:43,920
Speaker 1: two years ago or a year ago, about how the

838
00:43:44,000 --> 00:43:46,719
Speaker 1: Biden Trump face off is shaping up?

839
00:43:48,360 --> 00:43:51,799
Speaker 2: So I would say on the Trump side, Trump is

840
00:43:51,840 --> 00:43:54,400
Speaker 2: still Trump built the way that he has always been built.

841
00:43:54,520 --> 00:43:57,800
Speaker 2: He has not changed, the people around him have changed.

842
00:43:58,239 --> 00:44:03,000
Speaker 2: And there is a very competent, smart, small group of

843
00:44:03,000 --> 00:44:06,360
Speaker 2: people around him that understand politics very well and that

844
00:44:06,560 --> 00:44:10,279
Speaker 2: executed their strategy and ground game in Iowa pretty flawlessly,

845
00:44:10,800 --> 00:44:12,759
Speaker 2: and we can expect to see them take that to

846
00:44:12,800 --> 00:44:16,120
Speaker 2: state by state. And I think the Democrats have not

847
00:44:16,360 --> 00:44:19,520
Speaker 2: really caught onto the fact that Trump is not staffed

848
00:44:19,520 --> 00:44:22,120
Speaker 2: by a bunch of clowns this time. There's no infighting.

849
00:44:22,200 --> 00:44:24,520
Speaker 2: They get along with each other, and I think that

850
00:44:24,600 --> 00:44:28,040
Speaker 2: Democrats should take the people around him and his operation

851
00:44:28,160 --> 00:44:32,040
Speaker 2: this time very very seriously. That's been my takeaway for

852
00:44:32,120 --> 00:44:36,080
Speaker 2: months dealing with them, But that's really my takeaway from Iowa.

853
00:44:36,320 --> 00:44:38,279
Speaker 1: Nancy. I hope you'll come back again and chat with me,

854
00:44:38,360 --> 00:44:39,880
Speaker 1: because I always learned something from you.

855
00:44:40,440 --> 00:44:41,520
Speaker 2: Thank you. I would love to.

856
00:44:42,840 --> 00:44:45,640
Speaker 1: Nancy Cook is a Bloomberg News political reporter covering the

857
00:44:45,680 --> 00:44:48,600
Speaker 1: White House in the twenty twenty four presidential race. You

858
00:44:48,640 --> 00:44:51,040
Speaker 1: can find her work online at the Bloomberg dot com

859
00:44:51,080 --> 00:44:54,040
Speaker 1: website and on the Bloomberg terminal. You can also find

860
00:44:54,080 --> 00:44:59,000
Speaker 1: her on Twitter at nan Cook. Here. At crash Course,

861
00:44:59,120 --> 00:45:03,680
Speaker 1: we believe the college can be messy, impressive, challenging, surprising,

862
00:45:04,000 --> 00:45:08,359
Speaker 1: and always instructive. In today's Crash Course, I learned that

863
00:45:08,480 --> 00:45:12,640
Speaker 1: Donald Trump has learned a lot himself about how to

864
00:45:12,719 --> 00:45:16,239
Speaker 1: professionalize his political game. That doesn't mean he's going to

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Speaker 1: roll into the White House, but it does mean he's

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Speaker 1: going to be a more formidable opponent for Joe Biden

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Speaker 1: this time around. What did you learn? We'd love to

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Speaker 1: hear from you. You can tweet the Bloomberg Opinion handle

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Speaker 1: at Opinion or me at Tim O'Brien using the hashtag

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Crash Course. You can also subscribe to our show

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00:45:37,520 --> 00:45:40,240
Speaker 1: wherever you're listening right now and leave us a review

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00:45:40,600 --> 00:45:43,920
Speaker 1: that helps more people find the show. This episode was

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Speaker 1: produced by the indispensable Anamasarakis and me. Our supervising producer

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00:45:49,840 --> 00:45:53,240
Speaker 1: is Magnus Hendrickson, and we had editing help from Sage Bauman,

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00:45:53,680 --> 00:45:58,760
Speaker 1: Jeff Grocott, Mike Niitza and Christine Vanden Bilard. Blake Maples

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00:45:58,760 --> 00:46:01,799
Speaker 1: does our sound engineering. Then our original theme song was

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Speaker 1: composed by Luis Guerra. I'm Tim O'Brien. We will be

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Speaker 1: back next week with another Crash Course