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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

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Speaker 2: You usually would dive in with Richard Clarina of Pimcoe's, Hey,

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Speaker 2: what's the market going to do? What's the fed gonna do?

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Speaker 2: We're gonna stop and this is why we're talking to

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Speaker 2: Richard Clareda, and today Kachola Coda of Rochester, when he

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Speaker 2: was fed a Reserve Bank of Minnesota said, of the

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Speaker 2: theories wrapped around Professor Clareda, modern macro models do not

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Speaker 2: capture an intermediate, messy reality that's out there right now.

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Speaker 2: There's a messy, messy reality that we're all facing there.

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Speaker 2: And to me, looking at the magnificent architecture of dssee, folks,

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Speaker 2: I'll say, at once dynamics, stochastic general equilibrium theory in

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Speaker 2: the beauty of it, and not the physics envy, but

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Speaker 2: just the wonderful thinking of it. You come here and

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Speaker 2: as Ned Phelps would say, go to the XX short term,

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Speaker 2: medium term, long term, you're in the Oval Office right now,

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Speaker 2: and you've got to explain to Trump and the gentleman

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Speaker 2: from Pennsylvania Hasset the short term, the medium term, the

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Speaker 2: long term of what they are doing right now. How

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Speaker 2: do you explain that.

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Speaker 3: Well, what you say is the goal is to onshore,

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Speaker 3: bring production back to the US, reduce the trade deficit.

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Speaker 3: What we know is they can put on tariffs.

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Speaker 4: They have. The liberation day is.

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Speaker 3: Tomorrow, but it will take several years for that production

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Speaker 3: if it eventually does ramp up. To boost the supply

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Speaker 3: side of the economy, we have supply chains. Tariffs are

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Speaker 3: essentially attacks on inputs to production, so that slows it down.

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Speaker 3: Also the uncertainty about what the policy will look like

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Speaker 3: in the future as well. So right now what you're

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Speaker 3: getting is a lot of uncertainty. It's slowing the demand

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Speaker 3: and the economy. Eventually you may get more jobs and

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Speaker 3: more production, but that's several years down the road. So

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Speaker 3: I think I want the folks in the Oval Office

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Speaker 3: to understand the time dimensions at work here.

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Speaker 5: For sure.

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Speaker 2: Stephanie Kelton has a theory which is very much against

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Speaker 2: people like you on what modern monetary theory should look like,

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Speaker 2: and part of that theory is the intrusion of politics

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Speaker 2: into monetary economics. Right now, we're doing almost Vorescian tariff law,

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Speaker 2: mkindling tariff law, certainly from a nineteenth century. Can the

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Speaker 2: political system be patient enough to get declared as medium

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Speaker 2: term success?

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Speaker 4: Well, I'm not sure.

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Speaker 3: And in particular it gets it another fundamental idea in

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Speaker 3: economic which is the idea of time consistency, that eventually

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Speaker 3: people figure out that your promise now may not be

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Speaker 3: delivered in the future. And so that's why, in particular,

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Speaker 3: if the twenty percent tariffs that we're hearing about are

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Speaker 3: really the beginning of a negotiation, that also adds an

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Speaker 3: additional layer of uncertainty on top of just knowing what

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Speaker 3: the tariff number is is now. You know, Tom, we

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Speaker 3: saw him when I was at the Fed in twenty

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Speaker 3: nineteen that, in fact, just the uncertainty about the trade

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Speaker 3: policy itself was a damper to the economy. And that's

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Speaker 3: a very tangible factor fact of life in macro and

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Speaker 3: I think we're seeing an elevated version of it now.

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Speaker 6: And Richard, I think we're seeing some the folks on

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Speaker 6: Wall Street start to take down their GDP numbers being

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Speaker 6: ratchet up their inflation expectations. Are they too early here

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Speaker 6: or is that a reasonable I guess near to intermediate

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Speaker 6: term outlook.

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Speaker 3: Well, you know, Paul, everything in macro is a probability,

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Speaker 3: and so I think it is appropriate to move up

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Speaker 3: the probability of a recession. Certainly it would not d

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Speaker 3: my base case now, but it's certainly somewhat more elevated

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Speaker 3: than it was in particular. I think the other piece

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Speaker 3: of this time, getting back to your point about the

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Speaker 3: but the AX axis, is there's a lot of talk

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Speaker 3: about fiscal you know, no tax on tips, social Security,

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Speaker 3: you know, tax deductions to buy a car.

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Speaker 4: But again that's going to.

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Speaker 3: Take most of the rest of this year to work

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Speaker 3: its way through through Congress, and so again there'll be

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Speaker 3: uncertainty over that piece of it as well.

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Speaker 6: And given that backdrop of uncertainty, Richard, is there anything

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Speaker 6: FED and policy can do to it to really, I

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Speaker 6: don't counteractor to impact the economy because it doesn't feel

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Speaker 6: like there's much that FED it can do in the

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Speaker 6: face of what could be a slowing economy in higher inflation.

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Speaker 3: Well, I think here we want to distinguish between what

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Speaker 3: the FED can do and what they will do. You know,

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Speaker 3: what the FED could do is cut rates preemptively. That's

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Speaker 3: more or less what the power FED did during my

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Speaker 3: teim there in twenty nineteen. The economy began to slow

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Speaker 3: because of trade policy uncertainty, inflation began to fall, and

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Speaker 3: so we cut rates, essentially an insurance cut. I don't

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Speaker 3: think the FED really now has the runway to do

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Speaker 3: an insurance cut. In other words, we may need to

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Speaker 3: see a very tangible slowing in the economy, in the

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Speaker 3: labor market, rising the unemployment.

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Speaker 4: Rate to get the Fed off of Hold right here.

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Speaker 2: If you just joining it, because across the nation, we're with

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Speaker 2: Richard clair To, the former vice chairman of the FED.

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Speaker 2: We have a spectacular set of conversations for you today.

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Speaker 2: Nancy Lazar will be with us later. Among us Michael Nathanson.

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Speaker 2: Paul had a tantrum yesterday and said, get Nathanson. We

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Speaker 2: have Michael Nathanson here with a interesting essay on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: We welcome all of you on YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast.

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Speaker 2: It's our wonderful new distribution. Thank you for a successful march, Paul.

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Speaker 6: Richard, So you know, it's interesting some of the hit

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Speaker 6: you know, the data that the FED looks at. Historical

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Speaker 6: data still shows the economies in pretty solid shape. But boy,

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Speaker 6: I get kind of spooking. I think the market gets

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Speaker 6: a little spooky when they see survey data like the

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Speaker 6: University of Michigan data showing that WIT consumers really are concerned,

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Speaker 6: their sentiment is following, their inflation expectations are arising. How

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Speaker 6: does the FED look at that type of data.

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Speaker 3: It's an input into the projection. I think cher Palell

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Speaker 3: mentioned at the press conference last week that they look

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Speaker 3: at the survey data, but the survey data doesn't necessarily

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Speaker 3: translate into hard data eventually. I think what we have seen,

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Speaker 3: even Paul in the hard data is a pretty noteworthy

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Speaker 3: slowing in consumption side of the economy relative to a

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Speaker 3: really strong fourth quarter.

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Speaker 4: I think a lot of reason why.

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Speaker 3: Cell side houses are marking down their forecast is not

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Speaker 3: so much the survey data. It's the tangible data on

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Speaker 3: consumption being very very soft in Q one.

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Speaker 2: You more than anyone, have got to go from the

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Speaker 2: academics of DSGE and your work at literally building the

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Speaker 2: modern Columbia program. Did you bring Woodford over were You're

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Speaker 2: the one? And it said Michael come on over.

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Speaker 4: I wish I could take credit for that.

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Speaker 3: That was my success was Don Davis who brought Woodford over,

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Speaker 3: but I was leading the cheerleading effort to do it.

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Speaker 2: There was a cheerleading effort and they used torpedo bets

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Speaker 2: at the Columbia Right now, so Richard did bring in Stiglitz. Okay, well,

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Speaker 2: that takes credit for that. Okay, that's good. But the

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Speaker 2: thing in Richard clar Day is to bring this over

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Speaker 2: to the application of what we're doing now that the

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Speaker 2: theories to me are literally out the window. What is

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Speaker 2: the theory of the dual mandate right now?

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Speaker 4: Well, right now, the labor markets where the Fed wants

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Speaker 4: it to be.

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Speaker 3: We have about a four percent unemployment rate and all

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Speaker 3: broad measures of the labor market. So the Fed wants

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Speaker 3: to keep the market labor market where it is right now.

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Speaker 3: Chair Pale has said a number of times that the

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Speaker 3: Committee doesn't think that the labor market now is a

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Speaker 3: source of inflation. So they're very happy where the labor

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Speaker 3: market is. What they were thinking six months ago is

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Speaker 3: that they were on a glide path to this soft landing,

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Speaker 3: although they didn't use that term, and I think the

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Speaker 3: glide path has been delayed somewhat.

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Speaker 2: My ten year real yield here Jerome Schneider called me

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Speaker 2: up from PIMCO. Yet up early, he says, Tom, the

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Speaker 2: ten year real yield one point seventy eight percent. It's

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Speaker 2: coming down, down, down. If you're talking to Pimco troops

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Speaker 2: right now, are you modeling out a higher unemployment rate?

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Speaker 2: I got Atlanta GDP, GRIMM, I got feder Re zero

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Speaker 2: Bank of New York disagreeing with that. Where is Richard

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Speaker 2: Clarida on the I guess the vector of the unemployment rate?

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Speaker 4: I think the risk is to the upside.

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Speaker 3: And indeed, if you look at the Fed's projections two

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Speaker 3: weeks ago, where they show a chart that what is

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Speaker 3: the risk to the unemployment outlook, it's to the upside.

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Speaker 3: So I think there's some upside risk right here.

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Speaker 2: You know, at.

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Speaker 3: Minimum, given what's going on with DOGE right now, we're

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Speaker 3: going to see some increase in unemployment through those efforts.

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Speaker 3: Also important to note that even coming into the year, Tom,

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Speaker 3: if you look at private employloyment in particular, excluding healthcare

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Speaker 3: and education, which have a pretty big government backstop, private

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Speaker 3: employment had been really slowing throughout much of last year.

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Speaker 4: So that. I think that's also irrelevant.

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Speaker 6: How do you view the consumer here today, Richard? It

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Speaker 6: just seems like anytime over the last twelve fifteen years

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Speaker 6: to get concerned about the economy, but the consumer hangs

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Speaker 6: in there and generally keep spending pretty well. How do

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Speaker 6: you think about the US consumer?

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Speaker 3: Well, in the aggregate, you know, there are three hundred

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Speaker 3: million consumers, and in the aggregate they're in great shape.

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Speaker 3: You know, in particular high levels of net worth. If

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Speaker 3: you own a house, if you have money in the

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Speaker 3: stock market, you've had a really good run for the

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Speaker 3: last several years. But about a third of Americans don't

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Speaker 3: own their own home or don't hold any stock, and

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Speaker 3: for them it's a very different outcome. So what you're

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Speaker 3: starting to see in the data now is a pretty strong,

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Speaker 3: if I may use the term bifurcation between upper ear

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Speaker 3: consumers and consumers who don't own their own homes or

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Speaker 3: have a lot of stock market wealth, and then they're

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Speaker 3: getting pinched.

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Speaker 2: Okay, this is the heart of the matter. I mean,

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Speaker 2: Alan Meltzer almost took it, almost took a swing at me.

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Speaker 2: Jackson holds over this because Alan Meltzer want to go

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Speaker 2: back to forty seven and aggregate data. You've been teaching

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Speaker 2: that for twenty five years back when you were at Illinois.

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Speaker 2: We're aggregating data. You just described a barbelle John Edwards

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Speaker 2: to Americas. Yeah, around the table at the Eccles building.

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Speaker 2: Besides arguing over who's got redskins dads? Forget about that.

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Speaker 2: But around the table at the Eccles building, are you

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Speaker 2: looking at two Americas or some economic aggregated fiction.

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Speaker 3: Well, I'll put and say you look at both. But

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Speaker 3: certainly during my time there, the staff did very very

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Speaker 3: good work on looking a very disaggregated data. Forget you know,

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Speaker 3: two Americas that were looked at like thirty eight different

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Speaker 3: parts of the economy.

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Speaker 2: So you do both? Oh, come on, I mean Jason

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Speaker 2: Furman in his wonderful New York got bed. We'll get

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Speaker 2: Professor Furman in up in a schools up at a

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Speaker 2: school in New England somewhere. Jason says, flat out, tariffs

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Speaker 2: kill the poor and the tax cut goes to the rich.

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Speaker 2: It's a single sense in surveillance correction, Lisa, thank you

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Speaker 2: for noting it. It's not the Washington Redskins, it's the

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Speaker 2: Commander's my folks, it's my excuse me.

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Speaker 4: Maybe we'll go back.

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Speaker 2: Who knows, maybe I'll still have a job.

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Speaker 6: The world's changed. So Richard, where do we go from here?

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Speaker 6: What's the key thing that you're looking at here for

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Speaker 6: this economy? Is it the tariffs? Is it the consumer?

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Speaker 6: Is it the labor market? What's the key thing you're

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Speaker 6: focusing on?

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Speaker 2: Look?

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Speaker 3: I think I think the issue is we're in a

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Speaker 3: period now where measured inflation is going to go up

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Speaker 3: because of the pass through of the tariffs, and activity

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Speaker 3: is going to slow. So the real question for me, Paul,

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Speaker 3: is are we going through what I call a whiff

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Speaker 3: of stagflation or are we really entering what would be

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Speaker 3: a pretty very pretty persistent stagflationary crunch. You know, I'm

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Speaker 3: still relatively optimistic. I think it's more of a whiff

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Speaker 3: than a new normal, but it's certainly something that that

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Speaker 3: is would be would be quite relevant.

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Speaker 6: It seems like a tough political call there to slow

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Speaker 6: this economy and the rise inflation. Is the longer term

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Speaker 6: gain that this administration sees from perhaps restoring more manufacturing.

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Speaker 6: Is that a realistic expectation?

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Speaker 4: Do you think, well, that it is.

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Speaker 3: A realistic expectation, But it will not happen overnight. It

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Speaker 3: will take several years. And in particular, in fairness, we

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Speaker 3: saw a version of this in the Reagan administration. People

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Speaker 3: think of Reagan as being a free trader, and he

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Speaker 3: may have been philosophically, but the Reagan administration, which I

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Speaker 3: actually worked with back in my youth, was actually quite interventionist.

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Speaker 3: In particular, they had a policy known as voluntary export

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Speaker 3: restraints on Japanese cars. And what the big Japanese automaker's

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Speaker 3: Toylet and Honda realized is the only way for them

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Speaker 3: to have a presence in the US was to build

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Speaker 3: a lot.

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Speaker 4: Of factories in the US. And so it worked.

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Speaker 3: An ambitious enough trade policy and lead over time to

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Speaker 3: some onshoing, but it won't happen overnight.

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Speaker 2: I got eight ways to go. For a final question,

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Speaker 2: I want to go to zero sum, but it's too

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Speaker 2: early in the morning for a zero sum discussion. Here

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Speaker 2: the heart of the matter is a president is looking

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Speaker 2: at this is a bilateral discussion. The giant William Klein

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Speaker 2: at the Peterson Institute aggressively disagrees with that. What's our

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Speaker 2: multilateral outcome of this bilateral naivete?

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Speaker 3: I think we'll learn a little bit more tomorrow about

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Speaker 3: how much of this is intended to be permanent and

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Speaker 3: how much is an opening, you know, art of the

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Speaker 3: deal negotiation. If it is, if it is as I

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Speaker 3: suspect it will be the opening rounds of multiple negotiations

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Speaker 3: across different countries, then it's certainly not going to be

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Speaker 3: it's certainly not going to really be a multilateral plan

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Speaker 3: or be a series of bilateral deals.

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Speaker 2: Is get gone to, you know hard in the phrases

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Speaker 2: get gone.

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Speaker 3: And I think the evidence in favor of that is

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Speaker 3: that the Biden administration really didn't try to resuscitate the WTO.

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Speaker 2: So why didn't they? Why did Why did they resuscitate

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Speaker 2: the Atlantic Charter off of Newfoundland in nineteen forty two

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Speaker 2: when we were flat on our back?

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Speaker 3: Well you would have to ask them, but they're the

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Speaker 3: political center of gravity in the last four years before

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Speaker 3: Trump two point zero was really not to engage in

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Speaker 3: the WTO. We never staffed up the dispute settlement process.

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Speaker 2: It's completely fair. I mean, it goes back to transpecific failure.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and very good reminder the Transpacific Partnership exactly.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, you can come into all for liberation data. I'll

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Speaker 4: do it by phone. How about that, Richard clear to

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Speaker 4: thank you so much, generous.

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Speaker 2: Of you to be with us.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

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Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Coarplay and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen

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Speaker 1: live on Amazon on Alexa from our flagship New York station.

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Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: The only one on Wall Street with a torpedo bat

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Speaker 2: at home first in line with Anthony Volpi's bat. Michael

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Speaker 2: Nathanson joins us right now, Mike, I don't care about

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Speaker 2: YouTube your wonderful essay with Maffatt Nathanson. All I want

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Speaker 2: to know is a torpedo bat. Do we ban it

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Speaker 2: and get back to traditional baseball?

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Speaker 7: Oh? Tom, it's the best thing for baseball. How can

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Speaker 7: we ban it? This is This is a sport that

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Speaker 7: needs something right. It needs some excitement and energy. Say

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Speaker 7: give he went to bat?

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Speaker 2: So this is this is like the Wilson I think

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Speaker 2: it was the A two thousand of Jimmy Connors. As

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Speaker 2: we got a metal tennis racket, get used to it.

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Speaker 7: Oh, without a doubt and Baseball could not have made

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Speaker 7: a better outcome for themselves right now, right keep such

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Speaker 7: thousand home runs for the Yankees.

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Speaker 2: It's a gift the season. It's like homebred Derby. Would

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Speaker 2: you like to start the interview.

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Speaker 7: Paul Sweed exactly.

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Speaker 6: Hey, Mike, your your your note on YouTube hit my

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Speaker 6: inbox yesterday. I read every word of it. I know

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Speaker 6: it's been picked up by a lot of media. Can

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Speaker 6: you frame out for us how big YouTube has become

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Speaker 6: as a media company.

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Speaker 7: Okay, so those compoys look at it and good morning guys.

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Speaker 7: One is simply by revenues, Believe it or not. It's

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Speaker 7: fifty four billion in revenues with advertising, you know the

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Speaker 7: bulk of that. But there is a subscription business. It's

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Speaker 7: fifty four billion. It's literally you know, with the rounding

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Speaker 7: era of Disney, and by this year that will pass

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Speaker 7: Disney in revenues advertising subscription in terms of time spent.

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Speaker 7: I think you knowed from where you guys have your

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Speaker 7: your your show playing. If you look at connected TVs,

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Speaker 7: more people watch YouTube than any other service. Wow, you know,

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Speaker 7: it's bigger than Netflix, It's big than Disney. Plus if

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Speaker 7: you can look more broadly, just content, linear content channels,

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Speaker 7: cable plus satellite plus streaming. They are still the biggest

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Speaker 7: service of of the TV glass, right, and they also

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Speaker 7: position on your phone and your desktop, and they're also global, right,

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Speaker 7: So it's it's a monster of a company. Unfortunately, because

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Speaker 7: of Google's, you know, the focus at Google Search and

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Speaker 7: kind of the worries about search, people have ignored just

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Speaker 7: the strength of YouTube. But we keep pointing out every

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Speaker 7: year just the monster that it is, and it's going

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Speaker 7: to overtake Disney by twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 6: Michael, what does I'm look at the subscription revenue for YouTube,

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Speaker 6: which has become a force mine assume that most of

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Speaker 6: that subscription revenue was folks that maybe cut the cord

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Speaker 6: and said, but I find value on YouTube.

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Speaker 7: It's a bit of a blend. So it's I think

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Speaker 7: Thomas and before half of its YouTube premium, which includes

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Speaker 7: YouTube music, and we'd say there's about nine to ten

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Speaker 7: billion remains is YouTube TV, which I have. They just

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Speaker 7: raise prices unfortunately, but we think by twenty twenty six

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Speaker 7: and twenty six they'll be the biggest PTV company in America.

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Speaker 7: There will pass Charter and contract.

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Speaker 2: Right, they're ending a.

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Speaker 7: Million subs a year, and noone else is losing subs

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Speaker 7: so it's going to get to be a monster of

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Speaker 7: a company on PTV as well.

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Speaker 2: Michael, I want you to talk to entertainment Global Wall

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Speaker 2: Street that listens to us. We thank all of you

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Speaker 2: around the world and particularly in LA and New York,

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Speaker 2: glued to Lucas Shaw and screen time and what we're

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Speaker 2: doing here with Paul Sweeney's leadership on entertainment. I'm going

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Speaker 2: to pick on CNN just because Mark Thompson had a

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Speaker 2: wonderful interview I think in the New York Times nine

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Speaker 2: months ago. I'm guessing where every other paragraph ended with

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Speaker 2: the basic thought, we don't know what to do with YouTube.

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Speaker 2: What should traditional large media companies do with YouTube?

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Speaker 7: Yeah, Tom, you have no choice. YouTube is the platform, right,

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Speaker 7: you have to do what you're doing. You have to

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Speaker 7: basically use it for fust capabilities, right. So you have

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Speaker 7: to basic program a long form like you're doing. What's

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Speaker 7: missing in media is short form.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 7: There's not enough attention on kind of the YouTube shorts

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Speaker 7: or or TikTok you know, or meta reels. You have

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Speaker 7: to come up with a way to leverage short form video.

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Speaker 7: And also you have to become a creator like you

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Speaker 7: have to basically become a mister beast, which I don't

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Speaker 7: know if you're familiar with, and basically you have to

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Speaker 7: program for all types of consumption.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 7: So I think what everyone can do is do long

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Speaker 7: form content. But what's missing here in the DNA of

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Speaker 7: these companies is that short form creator economy where you're

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Speaker 7: using the difference, you know, kind of the short form

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Speaker 7: essence of YouTube to break through the clutter. It's hard

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Speaker 7: because there's no barriers to entry, right, Like great business

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Speaker 7: that we've analyzed in our careers had a big moat

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Speaker 7: cord cord cutting the.

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Speaker 2: Cord, you know. Okay, but this is first of all.

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Speaker 2: I was talking with Jimmy Donaldson the other day, really

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Speaker 2: told him he's killing it with mister beasts. I'm looking

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Speaker 2: Michael Nathanson hit the financial side of this. How does

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Speaker 2: traditional media find Paul help me here the fixed cost

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Speaker 2: benefit of YouTube? I don't see it. How do they

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Speaker 2: cover fixed costs on revenue or down the income a

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Speaker 2: statement to the Paul Sweeney's looking at this ebit that thing.

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Speaker 2: How do they do that on YouTube? I see no evidence?

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Speaker 7: Well, Tom, you have to basically create an alternative studio. Right,

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Speaker 7: you have basically have to invest in startups, and it's

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Speaker 7: not going to be in your P and L. Right,

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Speaker 7: it has to be. To your point, the infrastructure of

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Speaker 7: the companies we cover are just too large to make

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Speaker 7: money in YouTube. But it has to be a confederation

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Speaker 7: of small startups that you invest in.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 7: You have to basically think of this as a portfolio

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Speaker 7: that you're investing in off to the side that's going

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Speaker 7: to grow one day. I don't think they have the

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Speaker 7: DNA to your point, and the financial structure to play

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Speaker 7: a small ball, right. This is a small all kind

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Speaker 7: of approach. You have to break yourself away and basically

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Speaker 7: hire a bunch of young people to do it. You

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Speaker 7: know it's gonna be a fragmented view.

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Speaker 6: Hey, Mike, As always, your research notice full of lots

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Speaker 6: of numbers, lots of great analysis. The one that jumps

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Speaker 6: out of me. If YouTube was a standalone business, public

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Speaker 6: comps suggest the business would be worth four hundred and

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Speaker 6: seventy the five hundred and fifty billion dollars, or about

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Speaker 6: thirty percent of Alphabet's current valuation. I'm going to put

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Speaker 6: on my investment banker hat here, Mike, I'm going to

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Speaker 6: go out there and say, let's spin this thing out,

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Speaker 6: let's ipo this thing. What's the company say about the

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Speaker 6: structure of this company?

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Speaker 7: The problem is, Paul, is that you know, all the

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Speaker 7: infrastructure is built off of a common backbone, right, so,

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Speaker 7: all the data centers, all the investments in AI, the

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Speaker 7: go to market sales strategy. There's just too much shared

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Speaker 7: services for it to happen, right. It's maybe the government

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Speaker 7: will we don't know. Policy seems to be fluctuating, but

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Speaker 7: maybe the government will break them up. But for today's purposes,

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Speaker 7: they've built it on the back of one infrastructure is

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Speaker 7: too hard to do right now.

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Speaker 2: I mean, a guy named Moffatt and a guy named

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Speaker 2: Nathanson came out with you know, I'm going to give

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Speaker 2: rich Greenfield some love here as well a massive upfront

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Speaker 2: on cord cutting. How does cord cutting now fold into

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Speaker 2: this migration to the only thing my family watches YouTube

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Speaker 2: and Netflix like ninety five percent? What's that dynamic look

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Speaker 2: like in two thousand and thirty.

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Speaker 7: Okay, so great question. We have about sixty seven million

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Speaker 7: PHV homes right now, we're losing about five million a year.

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Speaker 7: So in five years time, we'll be down to around

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Speaker 7: forty million PTV homes. Those homes will be there for

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Speaker 7: live sports, right news forty million. That leaves ninety one

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Speaker 7: hundred million homes watching YouTube and Netflix, right, And the

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Speaker 7: challenge would be those forty million homes that remain. Why

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Speaker 7: are we there? And We've talked about this for a

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Speaker 7: long time. I'm Tom the glue of sports, but sports

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00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:06,520
Speaker 7: keeps leaking into streaming. It's gonna be harder for all

438
00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:09,600
Speaker 7: of us to defend paying one hundred dollars for TV.

439
00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:09,880
Speaker 2: Right.

440
00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:13,000
Speaker 7: So our view is then YouTube has the ability to

441
00:23:13,040 --> 00:23:16,679
Speaker 7: become an aggregator where they basically take everyone's services and

442
00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:19,880
Speaker 7: rebundle it into something called cable TV. But it's in streaming, right.

443
00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:24,000
Speaker 7: So basically Matha said twenty years ago it turns out

444
00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:27,119
Speaker 7: that that cable is a good business, it's going to

445
00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:29,840
Speaker 7: take twenty years to realize that that's the right model.

446
00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:30,120
Speaker 6: Right.

447
00:23:30,200 --> 00:23:33,120
Speaker 2: But Paul, get one more question here, I'm depressed out

448
00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:37,600
Speaker 2: on YouTube live chat. Dorsey says time should start streaming

449
00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:42,000
Speaker 2: six hours a day. I'm not joking, really, yeah, working

450
00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:45,720
Speaker 2: Dorsey is Dorsey Craig Moffatt in disguise.

451
00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:47,240
Speaker 4: That's one more question.

452
00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:51,399
Speaker 6: Hey, Craig That begs the question here. I mean, Michael,

453
00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:55,200
Speaker 6: our good friends at Paramount, Warner Brothers, Discovery, everybody else.

454
00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:57,159
Speaker 6: I mean, if I don't have a theme park business,

455
00:23:57,520 --> 00:23:59,240
Speaker 6: what am I doing in the media business these days?

456
00:23:59,240 --> 00:23:59,840
Speaker 6: What are these companies?

457
00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:03,760
Speaker 7: They have to consolidate, right, we have We've been waiting

458
00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:06,440
Speaker 7: for this dance to come to an end. You have

459
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:11,120
Speaker 7: three three services Max, Paramount, Plus and Peacock that now

460
00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:14,320
Speaker 7: need to activate. And that's the last kind of the

461
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:17,119
Speaker 7: piece of the puzzle. But it's not clear again with

462
00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:21,879
Speaker 7: this administration, how those companies can get bigger politically. So

463
00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:24,199
Speaker 7: I think we're in this imperfect world where you have

464
00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:28,040
Speaker 7: some people who've scaled. Tom mentions, Netflix and YouTube will

465
00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:31,480
Speaker 7: put Disney there. The rest have to get bigger. And

466
00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:34,800
Speaker 7: luckily Comcast has a theme park the building up that's

467
00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:37,280
Speaker 7: gonna get bigger epic in Disney's e Think Park. But

468
00:24:37,320 --> 00:24:39,920
Speaker 7: the others need to consolidate and take out capacity.

469
00:24:40,640 --> 00:24:43,320
Speaker 2: Michael. One final question, rich Out on YouTube sends in

470
00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:45,680
Speaker 2: this email, and I love it because we just spoke

471
00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:50,160
Speaker 2: the Sebastian page of Surbert Canada as well. The Rangers

472
00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:54,400
Speaker 2: have never been this bad? Is the kid from Boston College.

473
00:24:54,440 --> 00:24:58,520
Speaker 2: Yannick Pro's kid, Gabriel perro is he is he the hope,

474
00:24:58,720 --> 00:24:59,840
Speaker 2: the future of you.

475
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:04,080
Speaker 7: We're in New York Rangers, thank you for ruining my morning.

476
00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:08,080
Speaker 7: I don't know, because I don't. I mean, he's a

477
00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:11,359
Speaker 7: good scorer. We'll see about his size, you know, you

478
00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:13,320
Speaker 7: know can gests hate. I mean we had a number

479
00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:15,320
Speaker 7: one pick and a number two pick, right that doesn't

480
00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:17,840
Speaker 7: happen that often two years in a row, and it

481
00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:20,280
Speaker 7: didn't work out very well for us. So I am

482
00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:22,159
Speaker 7: I am in a sad state right now by the

483
00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:24,840
Speaker 7: New York Rangers. I think it's I think it's regime change.

484
00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:26,120
Speaker 7: There really has to change.

485
00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:32,159
Speaker 2: I totally agree with you on size. I just I

486
00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:35,560
Speaker 2: mean Peoles modeled out at five eleven, one hundred and

487
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:39,400
Speaker 2: sixty five pounds. Let's say pops thirty pounds on weightlifting.

488
00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:44,440
Speaker 2: Jeremy Rennick, I don't know if he could skate today.

489
00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:46,800
Speaker 2: You get out of or in Boston. Yeah, I mean

490
00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:50,320
Speaker 2: they Ron excuse me what Ronnick? Rennick? You know it's

491
00:25:50,320 --> 00:25:54,080
Speaker 2: like wicked the answers. I just don't know. I just

492
00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:56,960
Speaker 2: the size. I just I'm with Michael Nathanson. I know

493
00:25:57,640 --> 00:26:01,199
Speaker 2: we need some big razor plan, you know the ring. Michael,

494
00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:04,040
Speaker 2: thank you so much. Congratulations. We still need to get

495
00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:07,240
Speaker 2: you and Craig Moffatt in the studio to do an

496
00:26:07,400 --> 00:26:10,560
Speaker 2: entire hour State of Media because we get a huge

497
00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:13,080
Speaker 2: response when you're on. Thank you for the wonderful comments

498
00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:17,800
Speaker 2: out on YouTube. Greatly appreciate that. Michael Nathanson with Moffat Nathanson.

499
00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:26,960
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live

500
00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:30,199
Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on

501
00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:33,919
Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or

502
00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:35,560
Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube.

503
00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:38,399
Speaker 2: Joining us now, we are thrilled to bring you a

504
00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:42,280
Speaker 2: really a historic time for the nation. Nancy Lazar definitive

505
00:26:42,280 --> 00:26:45,880
Speaker 2: at CJ. Lawrence over the many years now at Piper Sandler,

506
00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:48,800
Speaker 2: and just just a perfect time to speak to Nancy

507
00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:53,000
Speaker 2: Nancy Lazar. Is any of what we're doing with tariffs

508
00:26:53,720 --> 00:26:57,480
Speaker 2: with a bilateral economic policy? Is any of this in

509
00:26:57,520 --> 00:27:00,440
Speaker 2: the textbooks you studied a few years back.

510
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:03,959
Speaker 8: Well, it's in the textbooks, but it just has a

511
00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:06,919
Speaker 8: negative connotation when they write about it in the text

512
00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:11,760
Speaker 8: In the textbooks. Free trade is definitely a healthier economic backdrop.

513
00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:14,959
Speaker 8: Fair trade is also key, and I would hope to

514
00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:17,400
Speaker 8: some extent this does lead to if there is any

515
00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:21,080
Speaker 8: potential string of positive from this tariff discussion, that we

516
00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:25,000
Speaker 8: do start having freer trade around the world near term.

517
00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:29,040
Speaker 8: That's obviously not happening. These are huge taxes on consumers.

518
00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:32,359
Speaker 8: We actually import more capital goods than consumer goods. This

519
00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:35,480
Speaker 8: is going to be a big hit on good He's

520
00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:38,080
Speaker 8: trying to build stuff in this in this in the

521
00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:42,600
Speaker 8: United States, so very counterproductive, clearly risk taking GDP into

522
00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:44,720
Speaker 8: negative territory at least four quarter.

523
00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:47,000
Speaker 2: I can't say enough, folks about what we're trying to

524
00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:50,400
Speaker 2: do here Geographically and Malati just with us from Milwaukee,

525
00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:54,760
Speaker 2: we're strong with Allspring. Now if Nancy Lazar with us

526
00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:58,159
Speaker 2: out of Piper with all of their heritage of Minneapolis,

527
00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:01,600
Speaker 2: Piper Sandler of course entered the wonderful New York City

528
00:28:01,640 --> 00:28:05,280
Speaker 2: banking expertise, and of course her work at Kalamazoo in

529
00:28:05,280 --> 00:28:09,320
Speaker 2: the west coast of Michigan as well. Nancy Lazard take

530
00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:14,080
Speaker 2: the Northwest, a traditional manufacturing heart of the Great Lakes area.

531
00:28:14,440 --> 00:28:16,040
Speaker 2: Where are they going to be in six months?

532
00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:19,800
Speaker 8: Well, again, terrorists are going to be a tax on

533
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:22,760
Speaker 8: the economy. I'm afraid manufacturing activity is going to actually

534
00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:25,960
Speaker 8: take a hit as we go into the second quarter.

535
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:28,000
Speaker 9: And this is really really unfortunate.

536
00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:31,600
Speaker 8: We've had a US manufacturing renaissance theme for fifteen years.

537
00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:36,040
Speaker 8: It started with the private sector and has been We've

538
00:28:36,040 --> 00:28:38,960
Speaker 8: had on shoring, clear onshoing, new companies coming to the

539
00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:41,560
Speaker 8: United States because it was just the US was generally

540
00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:43,600
Speaker 8: viewed as a better place to do business.

541
00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:46,120
Speaker 9: We have our own energy. Then we got the tax cut.

542
00:28:47,320 --> 00:28:51,920
Speaker 8: China was increasingly a bad actor industrial policy under the

543
00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:55,960
Speaker 8: last administration. You actually saw onshoing decline on It declined

544
00:28:56,000 --> 00:29:00,520
Speaker 8: in part because of increased regulations, and so to be

545
00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:02,680
Speaker 8: a little more balanced, we are going to see an

546
00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:07,240
Speaker 8: increased we are going to see decreased regulations. They're already unfolding,

547
00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:10,760
Speaker 8: and so we're hoping this is short term economic pain

548
00:29:11,480 --> 00:29:14,720
Speaker 8: with these teriffs. But then as we move back half

549
00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:16,840
Speaker 8: of the year, we can actually see things start to improve.

550
00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:18,280
Speaker 2: This is the heart of the matter. We had the

551
00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:20,800
Speaker 2: vice chairman, Richard Claard in earlier and he went right

552
00:29:20,840 --> 00:29:24,120
Speaker 2: to the X axis. Tell us what Nancy Lazar's X

553
00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:28,960
Speaker 2: axis looks like, short, medium, long term. The effect of

554
00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:32,520
Speaker 2: these tariffs and their reciprocity.

555
00:29:32,600 --> 00:29:32,959
Speaker 9: Yeah.

556
00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:34,760
Speaker 8: So first, let me say an Aletti is a good

557
00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:38,680
Speaker 8: friend of mine, so thanks for having her on this morning. Second,

558
00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:42,960
Speaker 8: and Richard is a terrific, terrific economist, which he was

559
00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:47,040
Speaker 8: still at the FED. Bottom line is near term, if

560
00:29:47,040 --> 00:29:49,360
Speaker 8: we get twenty percent across the board tariffs, which is

561
00:29:49,400 --> 00:29:52,520
Speaker 8: what the chit chat is today, who knows that would

562
00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:54,560
Speaker 8: be a tax on the US economy to the tune

563
00:29:54,600 --> 00:29:58,280
Speaker 8: of minus two percent GDP. And so we currently our

564
00:29:58,320 --> 00:30:01,160
Speaker 8: base case for two Q would be about would be

565
00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:04,040
Speaker 8: two plus two percent GDP. So this basically takes it

566
00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:07,560
Speaker 8: down to stall to stall speed. If there is retaliation,

567
00:30:07,840 --> 00:30:11,080
Speaker 8: which there probably will be, you will probably have a

568
00:30:11,160 --> 00:30:15,160
Speaker 8: negative second second quarter, assuming they're put in place. Assuming

569
00:30:15,160 --> 00:30:19,280
Speaker 8: they're put in place immediately. As we go through the year,

570
00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:21,440
Speaker 8: what's going to happen is you're going to start to

571
00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:24,040
Speaker 8: see the substitution effect and you'll start to see the

572
00:30:24,120 --> 00:30:26,840
Speaker 8: thing out of those price increases come down. And so

573
00:30:27,160 --> 00:30:29,520
Speaker 8: as you move into the back half of the year,

574
00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:32,720
Speaker 8: maybe later in the back half of the year, inflationary pressures,

575
00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:34,800
Speaker 8: the tax pressures from these terraces starts to fade.

576
00:30:35,000 --> 00:30:36,360
Speaker 9: Inflation starts to fade.

577
00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:40,840
Speaker 8: Second, you hopefully do then also have the extension of

578
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:42,800
Speaker 8: the tax of the tax cuts. Again, these are not

579
00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:45,400
Speaker 8: new tax cuts as of now. It's a full extension

580
00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:47,840
Speaker 8: of tax cuts that are already in place. And it

581
00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:51,680
Speaker 8: becomes more clear we are getting deregulation. So then in

582
00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:54,080
Speaker 8: the back half of the year, maybe by the fourth quarter,

583
00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:57,520
Speaker 8: could be potentially the third quarter, you see GDPs start

584
00:30:57,600 --> 00:31:00,400
Speaker 8: to re accelerate, and we could get pretty bullish on

585
00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:03,000
Speaker 8: the economy as we end the year something closer to

586
00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:08,520
Speaker 8: three percent. Assuming these tariffs don't result in a global

587
00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:12,960
Speaker 8: negative trade massive trade trade war, why could we get

588
00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:15,640
Speaker 8: more positive again on showing is a very very big

589
00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:18,120
Speaker 8: positive for the United States. We have a lot of

590
00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:21,040
Speaker 8: productivity in this economy. AI is just going to make

591
00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:24,800
Speaker 8: productivity even even stronger. Deregulation is going to be a

592
00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:28,320
Speaker 8: huge quote unquote tax relief for middle sized companies. They've

593
00:31:28,320 --> 00:31:31,800
Speaker 8: been squeezed dramatically from the surgeon regulation over the past

594
00:31:31,880 --> 00:31:35,120
Speaker 8: over the past four years, small medium sized companies create

595
00:31:35,480 --> 00:31:37,760
Speaker 8: eighty percent of the jobs in this country. And so

596
00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:40,560
Speaker 8: at the end of the day, again you can see

597
00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:43,880
Speaker 8: short term pain for sure. Let's hope that something doesn't

598
00:31:43,960 --> 00:31:45,760
Speaker 8: crack as a result of this pain II.

599
00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:48,520
Speaker 9: What weaklings crack usually do get hit.

600
00:31:48,760 --> 00:31:51,080
Speaker 8: But as you move through the year, you can see

601
00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:55,120
Speaker 8: prospects for a stronger economy again, assuming this thing doesn't

602
00:31:55,200 --> 00:31:58,080
Speaker 8: really turn into a massive global trade war.

603
00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:00,880
Speaker 6: Nancy, how do you what do you modeling out for?

604
00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:02,680
Speaker 6: What are some of our big trade partners how they

605
00:32:02,760 --> 00:32:05,200
Speaker 6: might respond here? It sounds like Kindada wants to take

606
00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:07,880
Speaker 6: a tough stand here. We haven't heard too much out

607
00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:11,360
Speaker 6: in Mexico, Europe. We're not sure. How do you model

608
00:32:11,400 --> 00:32:11,760
Speaker 6: that out?

609
00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:14,920
Speaker 9: Yeah, that's very, very difficult to model out.

610
00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:17,280
Speaker 8: I was just in Europe last week, and quite frankly,

611
00:32:17,320 --> 00:32:18,880
Speaker 8: I was trying to think, what did I see? That

612
00:32:19,000 --> 00:32:23,600
Speaker 8: was American no cars, So they can't put tariffs on cars.

613
00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:26,280
Speaker 8: They already have high tariffs on cars, and so it's

614
00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:29,520
Speaker 8: not clear what they're going to do. Probably will be targeted.

615
00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:31,440
Speaker 8: I was just talking to my ECO team about this,

616
00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:34,880
Speaker 8: Probably will be targeted. They've already done motorcycles and some

617
00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:38,680
Speaker 8: some whiskey, and it probably will continue to go down

618
00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:41,160
Speaker 8: to go down that path. But again it's not clear

619
00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:43,240
Speaker 8: how much of that stuff they actually buy from the

620
00:32:44,120 --> 00:32:47,040
Speaker 8: United from the United States. I think the bigger issues

621
00:32:47,080 --> 00:32:49,640
Speaker 8: are what we're going to see out of some of China,

622
00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:51,320
Speaker 8: China in particular, just.

623
00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:54,480
Speaker 2: In the Bloomberg here, folks with Nancy Lazar, I should say,

624
00:32:54,520 --> 00:32:58,760
Speaker 2: a Piper Sandler with us right now, Nancy and this wonderful,

625
00:32:58,800 --> 00:33:03,720
Speaker 2: generous conversation this morning. I'm looking at economic research come

626
00:33:03,760 --> 00:33:07,040
Speaker 2: in and everybody's looking at charts that really show consumers

627
00:33:07,120 --> 00:33:10,760
Speaker 2: slow down the granularity that you were so famous for

628
00:33:10,840 --> 00:33:14,520
Speaker 2: over at the years, which is the Nancy Lazard chart

629
00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:19,360
Speaker 2: right now that describes America, which is a chart that

630
00:33:19,480 --> 00:33:21,440
Speaker 2: jumps out at you at Piper Sandler.

631
00:33:22,680 --> 00:33:26,360
Speaker 8: So over the past two years, what we call public employment,

632
00:33:26,680 --> 00:33:31,160
Speaker 8: public employment would include the government, federal, state, local education, healthcare,

633
00:33:31,520 --> 00:33:36,400
Speaker 8: and consultants have generated ninety two percent of jobs over

634
00:33:36,440 --> 00:33:39,720
Speaker 8: the past two years. The public sector has really been

635
00:33:39,760 --> 00:33:42,680
Speaker 8: crowding out the private sector. You see it with that

636
00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:45,520
Speaker 8: job growth. Private sector job growth has been flat for

637
00:33:45,560 --> 00:33:48,920
Speaker 8: the past two years. Why because wages have been bid

638
00:33:49,040 --> 00:33:53,000
Speaker 8: up because of this strong demand from these government oriented

639
00:33:53,960 --> 00:33:59,000
Speaker 8: sectors of the economy. Again, federal government, state, local government, education, healthcare,

640
00:33:59,440 --> 00:34:03,040
Speaker 8: and consultants. They've created ninety over ninety percent of the

641
00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:05,680
Speaker 8: jobs over the past two years. That's just one way

642
00:34:05,720 --> 00:34:09,239
Speaker 8: to highlight that government spending, which is about twenty five

643
00:34:09,320 --> 00:34:12,319
Speaker 8: percent of GDP right now, which historically has happened only

644
00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:14,799
Speaker 8: two times in the past, during COVID and during World

645
00:34:14,800 --> 00:34:17,880
Speaker 8: War Two, has been this giant sucking sound from the

646
00:34:17,880 --> 00:34:22,160
Speaker 8: private sector, keeping inflationary pressures higher for longer, keeping interest

647
00:34:22,239 --> 00:34:26,200
Speaker 8: rates higher than they otherwise would be lowering productivity. And

648
00:34:26,280 --> 00:34:30,840
Speaker 8: so our hope going forward and again looking on the

649
00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:33,040
Speaker 8: bright side, because there's a lot of dark clouds right now,

650
00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:35,720
Speaker 8: looking on the bright side, if indeed we can see

651
00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:40,239
Speaker 8: some success in chipping away at government spending, you have

652
00:34:40,320 --> 00:34:44,160
Speaker 8: more resources for the private sector, inflation really cools off,

653
00:34:44,200 --> 00:34:47,560
Speaker 8: you get interest rates down for the right reason, not

654
00:34:47,680 --> 00:34:50,880
Speaker 8: because of an extreme economic weakness, which may be unfolding

655
00:34:50,960 --> 00:34:54,720
Speaker 8: right now. So that's really been my big concern about

656
00:34:54,760 --> 00:34:58,320
Speaker 8: the US economy that we end up more like Europe

657
00:34:58,360 --> 00:35:01,959
Speaker 8: where you have these bigger governments and you just don't

658
00:35:02,000 --> 00:35:03,400
Speaker 8: have the strength of the private sector.

659
00:35:03,480 --> 00:35:04,840
Speaker 9: So again I'm looking.

660
00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:08,440
Speaker 8: At the glass half full longer term, with hopefully on

661
00:35:08,480 --> 00:35:13,200
Speaker 8: the plus side, this administration can be successful in stopping

662
00:35:13,239 --> 00:35:16,560
Speaker 8: this giant sucking sound of the government sector and have

663
00:35:16,640 --> 00:35:19,520
Speaker 8: more resources available for the private sector because we have

664
00:35:19,680 --> 00:35:24,560
Speaker 8: so much potential in the private sector. We're innovative onshore

665
00:35:24,600 --> 00:35:27,440
Speaker 8: and has been a theme creating goods, producing jobs, and

666
00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:32,160
Speaker 8: so back to me, is the single biggest headwind to

667
00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:34,480
Speaker 8: the economy and it's got to change.

668
00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:38,120
Speaker 6: So what we're hearing from a lot of companies on

669
00:35:38,160 --> 00:35:40,839
Speaker 6: the most recent conference calls, and presumably we'll hear money

670
00:35:40,920 --> 00:35:44,640
Speaker 6: upcoming earning conference calls, is this word uncertainty. And I

671
00:35:44,640 --> 00:35:46,680
Speaker 6: think there's concern in the marketplace that gee, that could

672
00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:50,359
Speaker 6: impact their ability to hire, their ability to spend money

673
00:35:50,400 --> 00:35:53,880
Speaker 6: to invest in their businesses. How big of a concern

674
00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:56,279
Speaker 6: is that for you? Just the level of uncertainty out.

675
00:35:56,200 --> 00:36:02,799
Speaker 8: There huge, and when you have sustained period of high uncertainty,

676
00:36:03,040 --> 00:36:05,160
Speaker 8: you definitely get the knock effects that you were just

677
00:36:05,200 --> 00:36:08,080
Speaker 8: talking about. And so that again is a headwind to

678
00:36:08,120 --> 00:36:11,560
Speaker 8: the economy right now. As we go through we're probably

679
00:36:11,560 --> 00:36:14,719
Speaker 8: gonna see it in the Small Business Confidence Index data

680
00:36:14,760 --> 00:36:17,680
Speaker 8: we're going to get next Tuesday, where small businesses are

681
00:36:17,800 --> 00:36:20,239
Speaker 8: very uncertain. They've already pulled back on their cap X

682
00:36:20,280 --> 00:36:22,839
Speaker 8: plans based on the work one of my colleagues, Dave

683
00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:27,879
Speaker 8: Wigglesworth has done. The current increase in uncertainty does risk

684
00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:30,759
Speaker 8: pulling GDP down about one and a half percentage point

685
00:36:30,800 --> 00:36:35,200
Speaker 8: if it stays elevated. In particular, capital spending obviously large

686
00:36:35,200 --> 00:36:38,880
Speaker 8: ticket items is most vulnerable. That could go down significantly

687
00:36:39,080 --> 00:36:41,640
Speaker 8: if uncertainty stays high, to the tune of about seven

688
00:36:41,719 --> 00:36:45,640
Speaker 8: percent drop in capital. In capital spending, big ticket item,

689
00:36:45,640 --> 00:36:49,040
Speaker 8: you're going to postpone, potentially putting that in place until

690
00:36:49,080 --> 00:36:51,560
Speaker 8: you understand what's going on with tariffs. And so the

691
00:36:51,600 --> 00:36:55,080
Speaker 8: combination of the tariffs and this high uncertainty is a

692
00:36:55,160 --> 00:36:58,400
Speaker 8: huge risk current to the second to the second quarter,

693
00:36:58,640 --> 00:37:01,240
Speaker 8: and I agree with your point on company earnings.

694
00:37:01,680 --> 00:37:02,839
Speaker 9: The one Q earning.

695
00:37:02,560 --> 00:37:07,200
Speaker 8: Season we think is going to be very very uneasy,

696
00:37:07,600 --> 00:37:11,600
Speaker 8: potentially negative. We already had United Airline highlight how even

697
00:37:11,640 --> 00:37:15,680
Speaker 8: before the tariffs you had this cutback in government travel

698
00:37:16,280 --> 00:37:18,200
Speaker 8: and at the end of the day that they saw

699
00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:21,719
Speaker 8: business down fifty percent. And so yes, I think the

700
00:37:21,760 --> 00:37:24,360
Speaker 8: one Q earning seasons could be very very difficult.

701
00:37:24,640 --> 00:37:27,560
Speaker 2: Nancy, Thank you so much, Nancy Lazarea. It's just absolutely

702
00:37:27,560 --> 00:37:32,160
Speaker 2: brilliant there on the combination the sum of so called

703
00:37:32,200 --> 00:37:37,440
Speaker 2: government implements, schools, health, education, everything and ninety two percent

704
00:37:37,520 --> 00:37:41,600
Speaker 2: growth at the march and just extraordinary perspective. Nancy Lazare

705
00:37:41,600 --> 00:37:42,760
Speaker 2: with this paper. Sandler.

706
00:37:43,040 --> 00:37:46,920
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

707
00:37:46,960 --> 00:37:50,360
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto

708
00:37:50,400 --> 00:37:53,359
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live

709
00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:57,000
Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just

710
00:37:57,040 --> 00:37:59,520
Speaker 1: say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

711
00:37:59,719 --> 00:38:03,920
Speaker 2: Chrisman, former CIO, he was at Kelsters. He's retired. You know,

712
00:38:04,280 --> 00:38:08,080
Speaker 2: he's like this for ever. This is great. Chris joins

713
00:38:08,160 --> 00:38:11,520
Speaker 2: us this warning, Chris, what's so great about your experience

714
00:38:12,200 --> 00:38:14,240
Speaker 2: is you know, one little thing you do, you can't

715
00:38:14,320 --> 00:38:17,319
Speaker 2: move the needle because you got so much money. Where

716
00:38:17,320 --> 00:38:20,319
Speaker 2: do you find alpha right now? In this Maelstrom.

717
00:38:21,880 --> 00:38:24,839
Speaker 5: Tom, You know, it's a huge challenge, and global CIOs

718
00:38:24,920 --> 00:38:28,839
Speaker 5: are just there. They're buff fuddles because the world is,

719
00:38:29,360 --> 00:38:32,640
Speaker 5: how should I say, instead of chaotic. It's so flexible

720
00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:35,839
Speaker 5: right now, and so a lot of we're sticking close

721
00:38:35,880 --> 00:38:39,880
Speaker 5: to their traditional asset allocation. Others are using total portfolio approach,

722
00:38:39,960 --> 00:38:42,920
Speaker 5: but they're really having to think about risks differently than

723
00:38:42,960 --> 00:38:43,640
Speaker 5: they did before.

724
00:38:44,480 --> 00:38:46,920
Speaker 6: And it's interesting, Chris. One of the phenomena that we've

725
00:38:46,920 --> 00:38:48,600
Speaker 6: seen here in the first quart of trading is the

726
00:38:49,360 --> 00:38:52,600
Speaker 6: dramatic underperformance of the US market versus the rest of

727
00:38:52,640 --> 00:38:55,400
Speaker 6: the world levels we haven't seen since the eighties. Bloomberg

728
00:38:55,440 --> 00:38:58,799
Speaker 6: News is reporting. Is this a short term trade, this

729
00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:00,279
Speaker 6: underperformance or is it some more?

730
00:39:00,320 --> 00:39:05,000
Speaker 5: Do you think make Europe grade again? You know, No,

731
00:39:05,160 --> 00:39:08,359
Speaker 5: I think that it's part of the shift to more

732
00:39:08,400 --> 00:39:13,400
Speaker 5: global and now more local economy. Like Tom knows, it's

733
00:39:13,440 --> 00:39:17,000
Speaker 5: always the economy, Paul, and you know, it's interest rates and.

734
00:39:17,400 --> 00:39:18,120
Speaker 2: Around the world.

735
00:39:18,520 --> 00:39:21,319
Speaker 5: People were recognizing in the fourth quarter last year that

736
00:39:21,400 --> 00:39:24,600
Speaker 5: the US had suddenly become two thirds of the global

737
00:39:25,040 --> 00:39:29,600
Speaker 5: financial market. That's unusual, and we do revert to the

738
00:39:29,640 --> 00:39:33,439
Speaker 5: norm over time. So we're starting to see that trade back.

739
00:39:33,520 --> 00:39:36,400
Speaker 5: And I think people with a true global portfolio are happy.

740
00:39:36,920 --> 00:39:39,600
Speaker 5: People that got concentrated in US tech are unhappy.

741
00:39:40,239 --> 00:39:43,759
Speaker 2: Well, Meg seven come back. I mean, they got resilient.

742
00:39:44,239 --> 00:39:48,879
Speaker 2: It appears they have above average revenue growth. It appears

743
00:39:49,120 --> 00:39:53,640
Speaker 2: they have persistent free cash flow. Is this the opportunity, Chris,

744
00:39:53,640 --> 00:39:56,959
Speaker 2: that you didn't have when they're traded in seventy times Pe?

745
00:39:58,560 --> 00:40:01,400
Speaker 5: Well, they're still pretty rich. But you said at the

746
00:40:01,440 --> 00:40:05,000
Speaker 5: beginning they've got free cash flow and they've got real earnings.

747
00:40:05,040 --> 00:40:07,920
Speaker 5: That's the difference between you know, one oh two and

748
00:40:07,960 --> 00:40:11,360
Speaker 5: the Internet bubble and now, so these are real stocks.

749
00:40:12,120 --> 00:40:14,680
Speaker 5: They do have long but I think Wall Street like

750
00:40:14,760 --> 00:40:18,720
Speaker 5: always overshot. It got over excited about AI. We're starting

751
00:40:18,760 --> 00:40:23,360
Speaker 5: to see uptake. It's slow, it has profound implications, but

752
00:40:23,600 --> 00:40:26,520
Speaker 5: it's over a long time period. It's not just revenue now.

753
00:40:26,640 --> 00:40:29,560
Speaker 5: So you know, I think that people have to take

754
00:40:29,600 --> 00:40:31,960
Speaker 5: a decision about how to buy those stocks. And do

755
00:40:32,000 --> 00:40:34,680
Speaker 5: you buy all seven I doubt it. You buy a

756
00:40:34,719 --> 00:40:37,520
Speaker 5: few of them, or you index? And you know me,

757
00:40:37,600 --> 00:40:39,880
Speaker 5: I like indexing, so I just buy the whole market

758
00:40:40,000 --> 00:40:41,080
Speaker 5: and trade with it.

759
00:40:41,440 --> 00:40:45,120
Speaker 6: Hey, Chris, I know you host every other month call

760
00:40:45,200 --> 00:40:47,440
Speaker 6: with some of these leading global CIOs.

761
00:40:47,719 --> 00:40:48,440
Speaker 7: How do some of the.

762
00:40:48,960 --> 00:40:53,120
Speaker 6: Non US money managers view what's happening here in the

763
00:40:53,239 --> 00:40:56,600
Speaker 6: US here today? See there's a buying opportunity or are

764
00:40:56,640 --> 00:41:01,680
Speaker 6: they you know, kind of fretful here?

765
00:41:00,920 --> 00:41:03,640
Speaker 5: You know, they're applauding. I talked to a lot of

766
00:41:03,680 --> 00:41:08,040
Speaker 5: people up in Canada, in Australia and New Zealand and

767
00:41:08,080 --> 00:41:11,880
Speaker 5: in the EU, and they don't have a home country bias.

768
00:41:11,920 --> 00:41:15,400
Speaker 5: They are truly global in their portfolio, but they're happy

769
00:41:15,440 --> 00:41:18,680
Speaker 5: to finally see some diversification in some improvement because they

770
00:41:18,760 --> 00:41:22,799
Speaker 5: have real assets, often in their home country, and their

771
00:41:22,840 --> 00:41:25,680
Speaker 5: currency is a big focus. So the weakness and the

772
00:41:25,760 --> 00:41:30,279
Speaker 5: dollar that's forecast is a huge trade for them and

773
00:41:30,320 --> 00:41:33,680
Speaker 5: they see this as a bigger opportunity in their portfolios

774
00:41:33,719 --> 00:41:36,319
Speaker 5: finally to diversify away from the USA.

775
00:41:36,440 --> 00:41:39,040
Speaker 2: And what we do on Bloomberg Surveillance, folks, is to

776
00:41:39,120 --> 00:41:42,600
Speaker 2: talk to somebody with a lot of experience about the

777
00:41:42,640 --> 00:41:45,480
Speaker 2: marketing moment we're in, Paul. It's been at least a

778
00:41:45,600 --> 00:41:47,400
Speaker 2: huge two year bull market.

779
00:41:47,200 --> 00:41:49,319
Speaker 6: Right yeah, and it's been driven large bay.

780
00:41:49,440 --> 00:41:51,359
Speaker 2: So what you do for scared people is you come

781
00:41:51,440 --> 00:41:54,400
Speaker 2: up with the rude of strategies like call writing, option

782
00:41:54,560 --> 00:41:58,839
Speaker 2: dividend enhancement, etc. It's runn them up right now. Everybody's

783
00:41:58,880 --> 00:42:01,600
Speaker 2: doing it. They do it with bitcoin. Money flowing in,

784
00:42:01,640 --> 00:42:05,279
Speaker 2: money flowing out right now on bitcoin. Chris Alman on

785
00:42:05,400 --> 00:42:10,320
Speaker 2: the creative investments going on right now across Wall Street,

786
00:42:10,360 --> 00:42:15,200
Speaker 2: including option writing and dividend enhancement. We've seen this before,

787
00:42:15,239 --> 00:42:17,359
Speaker 2: haven't we? Oh?

788
00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:20,439
Speaker 5: Yeah, no, Tom, You know, people reach ree yield and

789
00:42:21,040 --> 00:42:24,840
Speaker 5: the old phrase pigs get slaughtered, lambs got get sheared.

790
00:42:24,960 --> 00:42:27,200
Speaker 7: So people that are worried.

791
00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:30,280
Speaker 5: You know, the institutional investors are very slow to uptake

792
00:42:30,320 --> 00:42:33,680
Speaker 5: these new ideas. The one big common one is total

793
00:42:33,719 --> 00:42:36,160
Speaker 5: portfolio theory, and it's just a different way to look

794
00:42:36,200 --> 00:42:39,600
Speaker 5: at the world instead of traditional asset allocation. But they

795
00:42:39,600 --> 00:42:42,720
Speaker 5: are not jumping into digital currencies. That's a hot debate

796
00:42:42,800 --> 00:42:46,200
Speaker 5: for the three hundred club. They're not jumping into some

797
00:42:46,320 --> 00:42:50,080
Speaker 5: of the derivative securities. They think they like good solid

798
00:42:50,160 --> 00:42:53,080
Speaker 5: stuff like infrastructure. Paul and I used to talk about

799
00:42:53,160 --> 00:42:57,680
Speaker 5: municipal bonds my favorite area. Good solid, steady income is

800
00:42:57,719 --> 00:43:01,640
Speaker 5: still a sod after thing for a big institutional portfolio.

801
00:43:02,280 --> 00:43:05,320
Speaker 6: Hey, christ In twenty twenty three and twenty four, the

802
00:43:05,719 --> 00:43:09,200
Speaker 6: real theme there driving the markets high was AI as

803
00:43:09,280 --> 00:43:11,960
Speaker 6: maybe epitomized by the mag seven. Is this a market

804
00:43:12,040 --> 00:43:15,879
Speaker 6: or can the broader markets work if tech is not leading.

805
00:43:17,640 --> 00:43:20,719
Speaker 5: It can Paul, because you know, we have seen what

806
00:43:20,960 --> 00:43:25,040
Speaker 5: should be a decent economic boost with lower interest rates

807
00:43:26,000 --> 00:43:30,359
Speaker 5: and some of the policy changes in theory, but it's

808
00:43:30,360 --> 00:43:33,080
Speaker 5: been slow and I you know, you guys are seeing it.

809
00:43:33,080 --> 00:43:36,160
Speaker 5: It's going to be the manufacturing numbers are going to

810
00:43:36,160 --> 00:43:39,719
Speaker 5: be probably pretty startling. I think the average consumer is

811
00:43:40,120 --> 00:43:44,719
Speaker 5: pretty slow, and I'm seeing empty storefronts, and I think

812
00:43:44,760 --> 00:43:49,480
Speaker 5: retail sales are moderate, but they're not running gangbusters. So

813
00:43:50,080 --> 00:43:51,840
Speaker 5: you know, it always comes back. It's back to the

814
00:43:51,920 --> 00:43:55,600
Speaker 5: economy stupid. So take a look at that. The FED

815
00:43:55,640 --> 00:43:57,480
Speaker 5: has got to be frozen in here. I mean, it's

816
00:43:57,480 --> 00:44:00,080
Speaker 5: so hard to figure out what to do. But I

817
00:43:59,840 --> 00:44:02,800
Speaker 5: think the economy is slow and so the market should

818
00:44:02,840 --> 00:44:03,280
Speaker 5: be slow.

819
00:44:03,560 --> 00:44:07,000
Speaker 2: Thank you for unretiring Chris Ellman Advisors Chris Elman with

820
00:44:07,080 --> 00:44:09,279
Speaker 2: us this morning with all of his work for the

821
00:44:09,320 --> 00:44:17,000
Speaker 2: California Pension System.

822
00:44:17,040 --> 00:44:20,960
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

823
00:44:20,960 --> 00:44:24,000
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android

824
00:44:24,000 --> 00:44:27,000
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch

825
00:44:27,080 --> 00:44:30,040
Speaker 1: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the

826
00:44:30,080 --> 00:44:31,120
Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal.

827
00:44:31,239 --> 00:44:35,640
Speaker 2: Right now important what's in the Newspaper's mateo in at

828
00:44:35,680 --> 00:44:38,160
Speaker 2: one am trying to sort it out? What do you got?

829
00:44:38,480 --> 00:44:40,759
Speaker 10: First of all, people are asking where's the bow tie?

830
00:44:40,800 --> 00:44:42,439
Speaker 10: I want to just point that out on the live chat.

831
00:44:42,719 --> 00:44:45,839
Speaker 2: Can you explain it? Ripped? For the first time ever,

832
00:44:45,920 --> 00:44:49,680
Speaker 2: I put it on shoddy French material and it ripped in.

833
00:44:49,800 --> 00:44:54,200
Speaker 6: A wardrobe malfunction is what it's called bullet time.

834
00:44:54,760 --> 00:44:56,920
Speaker 2: Listen, do you have a backup? And I'm like, no,

835
00:44:57,040 --> 00:44:58,400
Speaker 2: that would make too much sense.

836
00:44:59,080 --> 00:45:01,160
Speaker 6: No, you need the back Sorry, we're efforting that with

837
00:45:01,239 --> 00:45:01,880
Speaker 6: the team here.

838
00:45:01,760 --> 00:45:02,400
Speaker 2: To get a backup.

839
00:45:02,600 --> 00:45:05,440
Speaker 10: Well, speaking of the live chat YouTube, this is some

840
00:45:05,520 --> 00:45:08,360
Speaker 10: interesting news about YouTube about to surpass Disney is the

841
00:45:08,400 --> 00:45:11,120
Speaker 10: biggest media company in the world now. This is according

842
00:45:11,120 --> 00:45:14,440
Speaker 10: to Mafitt. Nathan is an analyst. Michael Nathan, who actually

843
00:45:14,520 --> 00:45:15,919
Speaker 10: is going to join us in the eight o'clock hours,

844
00:45:16,000 --> 00:45:19,760
Speaker 10: didn't even realize that, but YouTube, the second biggest media

845
00:45:19,800 --> 00:45:21,919
Speaker 10: company in the world last year, brought in fifty four

846
00:45:21,960 --> 00:45:24,600
Speaker 10: point two billion twenty twenty four, and that was just

847
00:45:24,680 --> 00:45:28,400
Speaker 10: five point five billion behind Disney. And he predicts twenty

848
00:45:28,440 --> 00:45:31,640
Speaker 10: twenty five YouTube should really eclipse and become the biggest

849
00:45:31,680 --> 00:45:32,759
Speaker 10: media company in the world.

850
00:45:33,200 --> 00:45:33,399
Speaker 4: Pool.

851
00:45:33,600 --> 00:45:35,680
Speaker 6: Yeah, and it's only twenty years old. But it just

852
00:45:35,719 --> 00:45:38,920
Speaker 6: goes to show that's where the audience is going and

853
00:45:38,920 --> 00:45:42,560
Speaker 6: where the audience goes advertising revenue, followers and as Michael

854
00:45:42,600 --> 00:45:44,520
Speaker 6: points out in his research note which came I guess day,

855
00:45:44,560 --> 00:45:47,120
Speaker 6: I read every word of it, subscription revenue too, So

856
00:45:47,120 --> 00:45:49,239
Speaker 6: it is people cut the cord. It's not that they're

857
00:45:49,280 --> 00:45:51,200
Speaker 6: not willing to pay for content, it's just which content

858
00:45:51,239 --> 00:45:52,879
Speaker 6: they want to pay for, and they're happy to pay

859
00:45:52,880 --> 00:45:54,000
Speaker 6: for this YouTube content.

860
00:45:54,320 --> 00:45:56,480
Speaker 10: And what's interesting too, is that the audience they're shaying

861
00:45:56,800 --> 00:45:58,880
Speaker 10: went from the younger audience and now it's growing beyond

862
00:45:58,880 --> 00:46:00,879
Speaker 10: just kids. I mean, every one is kind of.

863
00:46:01,160 --> 00:46:06,520
Speaker 2: Sure if they get their fidelities straightened out, YouTube music

864
00:46:07,520 --> 00:46:11,439
Speaker 2: will win in two days. The search algorithm is so

865
00:46:11,520 --> 00:46:14,200
Speaker 2: superior to the others, but they got to get the

866
00:46:14,239 --> 00:46:15,920
Speaker 2: fidelities straight Now it doesn't.

867
00:46:15,640 --> 00:46:17,719
Speaker 6: Sound And again we got Michael Nathanson, the author of

868
00:46:17,719 --> 00:46:19,839
Speaker 6: that research note from off It Nathanson coming up in

869
00:46:19,840 --> 00:46:20,520
Speaker 6: a few moments.

870
00:46:20,760 --> 00:46:23,640
Speaker 10: Not bad, not bad. Also speaking to Disney, since we're

871
00:46:23,680 --> 00:46:26,520
Speaker 10: on the same topic, Disney snow White. We talked about

872
00:46:26,520 --> 00:46:28,960
Speaker 10: it yesterday right tanking at the box office. But Paul,

873
00:46:29,080 --> 00:46:33,399
Speaker 10: like Fas said, it's no biggie Why because yes.

874
00:46:33,080 --> 00:46:34,880
Speaker 6: Well, I mean this is content that they're going to

875
00:46:34,960 --> 00:46:38,600
Speaker 6: have all across their platforms, including some new stuff at

876
00:46:38,600 --> 00:46:39,160
Speaker 6: the theme park.

877
00:46:39,520 --> 00:46:42,759
Speaker 2: Are we going to watch it on the streets?

878
00:46:42,840 --> 00:46:48,480
Speaker 10: Yeah, digital copies, renting video on demand, then you have Disney, Hulu, ABC, like,

879
00:46:48,520 --> 00:46:49,600
Speaker 10: it's going to play across.

880
00:46:49,719 --> 00:46:51,520
Speaker 2: But if we don't watch it in the theater, why

881
00:46:51,560 --> 00:46:52,799
Speaker 2: do we think we're going to watch it?

882
00:46:53,239 --> 00:46:57,040
Speaker 10: Because they say studies show that films that have controversy,

883
00:46:57,080 --> 00:46:59,440
Speaker 10: which this one did have behind it will take people

884
00:46:59,600 --> 00:47:02,160
Speaker 10: out from the theaters, but they'll be more engaged to

885
00:47:02,200 --> 00:47:03,520
Speaker 10: watch you by the streaming.

886
00:47:03,640 --> 00:47:03,880
Speaker 4: I do.

887
00:47:03,960 --> 00:47:05,520
Speaker 6: But at the end of the day, they wanted to

888
00:47:05,600 --> 00:47:10,000
Speaker 6: make five yeah, maybe a billion global gross and they're

889
00:47:10,000 --> 00:47:12,680
Speaker 6: not gonna get anywhere near it. So so from there

890
00:47:12,840 --> 00:47:15,840
Speaker 6: it's a disappointment and the people in the film division

891
00:47:15,840 --> 00:47:18,479
Speaker 6: are getting their knuckles wrapped because this was a big mess.

892
00:47:18,520 --> 00:47:21,200
Speaker 2: So do they write it off so they don't pay

893
00:47:21,200 --> 00:47:24,040
Speaker 2: as much tax on the money you're giving them at

894
00:47:24,040 --> 00:47:24,560
Speaker 2: Disney World.

895
00:47:24,560 --> 00:47:26,880
Speaker 6: Now you get into film accounting, which is the most

896
00:47:27,040 --> 00:47:30,160
Speaker 6: craziest accounting in the world, just as any a list

897
00:47:30,200 --> 00:47:32,719
Speaker 6: TV stars or move movie star thanks to their owed

898
00:47:32,760 --> 00:47:35,640
Speaker 6: to back end and then studio says, so we didn't

899
00:47:35,640 --> 00:47:36,840
Speaker 6: make any money, So what do you mean he had

900
00:47:36,880 --> 00:47:37,680
Speaker 6: a billion dollars?

901
00:47:39,200 --> 00:47:41,960
Speaker 2: I mean, Lisa's like screaming and spired it. Where's my backhand?

902
00:47:42,000 --> 00:47:43,960
Speaker 2: I was looking exactly next?

903
00:47:44,080 --> 00:47:45,960
Speaker 10: All right, last one I'm pulling all well, going all

904
00:47:45,960 --> 00:47:48,240
Speaker 10: the way to the end. Canadians, they're drawing some inspiration

905
00:47:48,280 --> 00:47:51,120
Speaker 10: from a hockey legends rough style of play. I'm sure

906
00:47:51,160 --> 00:47:55,440
Speaker 10: you're familiar with him, Tom Canadian Gordie Howe aka mister

907
00:47:55,520 --> 00:47:58,160
Speaker 10: Hockey Right, nice guy on the ice, but he was

908
00:47:58,280 --> 00:48:01,520
Speaker 10: quick to throw his elbows up oponents who contested him,

909
00:48:01,960 --> 00:48:04,200
Speaker 10: so he got this nickname Mister Elbow. So the Wall

910
00:48:04,200 --> 00:48:06,440
Speaker 10: Street Journal is saying Canadians are now turning to this

911
00:48:06,800 --> 00:48:10,600
Speaker 10: elbows up movement there. It's a rally against President Trump's

912
00:48:10,600 --> 00:48:12,960
Speaker 10: tariffs threats to make Canada the fifty first state. So

913
00:48:13,000 --> 00:48:15,440
Speaker 10: it's like another one of those things. Yeah, yeah, So

914
00:48:15,760 --> 00:48:17,920
Speaker 10: it kind of took off. If you remember Mike Myers

915
00:48:17,920 --> 00:48:20,160
Speaker 10: on Saturday Night Live, he like did something on it

916
00:48:20,200 --> 00:48:22,160
Speaker 10: and that sparked it. You know, he like pointed to

917
00:48:22,200 --> 00:48:24,279
Speaker 10: his elbow, wore like the shirt that said Canada is

918
00:48:24,320 --> 00:48:28,080
Speaker 10: not for sale. He's from Canada, and so that sparked it.

919
00:48:28,160 --> 00:48:30,520
Speaker 10: But then at the same time you have Wayne Gretzky

920
00:48:30,560 --> 00:48:34,000
Speaker 10: who's getting the cold shoulder because he supports President Yeah.

921
00:48:34,080 --> 00:48:36,839
Speaker 2: Dark Floorido Toronto came out I believe yesterday, and I'm

922
00:48:36,880 --> 00:48:42,240
Speaker 2: sure quite the day the Leader of Ontario defended Wayne Gretzky.

923
00:48:42,280 --> 00:48:44,760
Speaker 2: He said enough, he said he was, you know, misquoted

924
00:48:44,800 --> 00:48:49,640
Speaker 2: or whatever. I don't know in details as well, elbows up?

925
00:48:49,760 --> 00:48:52,040
Speaker 2: Is it? Like is Carnie? And you know the other

926
00:48:52,120 --> 00:48:55,520
Speaker 2: politicians are the heading for a minor, a major minor

927
00:48:55,640 --> 00:48:59,600
Speaker 2: a misconduct? Who knows? Lisa Poteo, thank you so much

928
00:48:59,640 --> 00:49:00,600
Speaker 2: the news.

929
00:49:00,840 --> 00:49:05,640
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

930
00:49:05,760 --> 00:49:10,040
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,

931
00:49:10,200 --> 00:49:13,640
Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

932
00:49:13,719 --> 00:49:17,759
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You

933
00:49:17,800 --> 00:49:21,160
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934
00:49:21,360 --> 00:49:23,080
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