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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game?

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Speaker 2: Do us proud read a lot? They're up running a

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Speaker 2: game so smooth, so sweet.

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Speaker 1: Splendid sixteing, just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for

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Speaker 1: is sixty percent effort four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: How shut with that shot with mind.

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Speaker 1: Buddy, And that's why.

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Speaker 2: You see your beautiful Tias.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements, the.

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Speaker 2: Most dangerous a mount on the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picture them.

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Speaker 2: Shut up.

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Speaker 3: I'm trying the love.

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Speaker 2: It's left to one.

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Speaker 1: The white eyed, drilled bibused, how old on earth did

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Speaker 1: that happened?

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Speaker 3: Hello everyone, and welcome back to Wonderful the Sacramenting Podcast

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Speaker 3: from the Action Network.

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Speaker 2: My name is Michael Liebop.

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Speaker 3: Joining me as always is Cunningham and Sam Ingram from

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Speaker 3: Betting Expert and gentlemen, we welcome Sam back from his

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Speaker 3: annual leave. You didn't miss much, Sam. We were all

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Speaker 3: over Everton again and you can imagine how that went.

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Speaker 3: We were very right about the under in arsenal in

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Speaker 3: city and we also nailed Brentford giving Tottenham all sorts

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Speaker 3: of trouble.

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Speaker 2: So a really value for us in while you were away.

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Speaker 3: And we'll try to keep the momentum rolling here for

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Speaker 3: another match week in the Premier League. Ten matches to

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Speaker 3: sort through. We'll start with City in Newcastle, this one

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Speaker 3: in Newcastle at same James Park, seven thirty am kickoff

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Speaker 3: here in the States, Newcastle sitting plus four hundred and

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Speaker 3: beyond in some spots, as City travels as a minus

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Speaker 3: one sixty five favorite, the draws plus three fifty. The

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Speaker 3: big homework to do here is the Rodery situation with

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Speaker 3: City obviously makes a huge difference. Is the record with

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Speaker 3: him is something that a lot of soccer pins like.

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Speaker 3: The point too, that's that it's pretty crazy. I think

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Speaker 3: Newcastle's worth a bet here, Sam. I think there's a

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Speaker 3: pretty tough matchup for City. It's been the fixtures are

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Speaker 3: starting to pile up. They went to played in Europe,

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Speaker 3: that Neil nil against Inter, then the crazy game against Arsenal.

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Speaker 3: Now they have another tough one a week later against Newcastle,

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Speaker 3: and of course the injury situation. Newcastle didn't really look

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Speaker 3: all that great against Fulham, but I still think this team,

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Speaker 3: especially at home, is is dangerous, especially at this number.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't disagree. What I would say is that

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Speaker 4: the result against Fulham on the weekend. I think it

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Speaker 4: had been coming for Newcastle. I said a couple of

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Speaker 4: weeks ago that they've been riding their luck a little bit.

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Speaker 4: I don't think they've been that good all season. Issach

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Speaker 4: was not fully fit at the Cottage. Wilson obviously too,

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Speaker 4: so that doesn't help. And I think Fulham deserved to

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Speaker 4: win in the end. More shots, better chances accumulated, more

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Speaker 4: expected goes, more clinical, brighter in possession when it mattered,

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Speaker 4: And I think they're a team to look out for

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Speaker 4: at home as on Newcastle. As you mentioned, obviously they're

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Speaker 4: on the road last weekend, and yeah, touching on Rodery,

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Speaker 4: I suppose we do need to be mindful about it

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Speaker 4: when approaching this. And if you fold that into the

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Speaker 4: fact that, yes, they were in the Champions League in midweek,

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Speaker 4: Yes we have just had an international break. Now they're

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Speaker 4: losing key players. This is a spot for man City,

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Speaker 4: which looks a little bit awkward. Newcastle very good at home.

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Speaker 4: So the thing is for me, Michael, like after the

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Speaker 4: types of games like we saw Arsenal versus City, after

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Speaker 4: not everything went the way went Citi's way, I always

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Speaker 4: kind of like to get get behind them in the

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Speaker 4: following game, because City with a point to proof, like

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Speaker 4: that's an animal you really don't want to get into

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Speaker 4: a cage with. But like you said, for all the

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Speaker 4: reasons mentioned, yeah, I'm not so keen to take them on,

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Speaker 4: especially at the prices they are. What are they? Yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 4: it's short to get the win here, So I would

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Speaker 4: be leaning towards Newcastle. But just from like what I said,

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Speaker 4: just from what I've seen from them so far this season,

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Speaker 4: I'm not overly keen to keen to take them on.

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Speaker 4: But saying that, you would expect Newcastle to score at

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Speaker 4: home and if they do so, then that plus one

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Speaker 4: Asian handicap will look really good. But for me, I'm

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Speaker 4: probably just gonna sit this one out.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the Newcastle is the side here. Now

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Speaker 1: here's the thing. I know people didn't like what Arsenal

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Speaker 1: did in the second half against City. That's going to

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Speaker 1: be the norm going forward of what people are going

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Speaker 1: to do in Manchester City. Because it's very clear that

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Speaker 1: Pep has no interests of overloading wide areas. He only

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Speaker 1: wants to play through the middle, and so what do

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Speaker 1: you have to do? You have to play very compact

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Speaker 1: to be able to stop City. So you know, Newcastle

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Speaker 1: gave City some problems last season when they played at

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Speaker 1: Saint James Park. And the biggest thing that I think

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Speaker 1: Newcastle has over a lot of the teams that have

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Speaker 1: already played City is there a really dangerous transition team,

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Speaker 1: probably one of the most dangerous in the Premier League.

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Speaker 1: When City is committing so many guys forward. If you've

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Speaker 1: watched their matches, especially a match against West Ham, there

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Speaker 1: were constant situations where there's two v two or three

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Speaker 1: v three's going back in transition and if you go back,

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Speaker 1: both the Newcastle's goals that they scored against City were

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Speaker 1: on transition breaks where Ea Shack or Gordon got in.

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Speaker 1: One v one is against Kyle Walker. So I think

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Speaker 1: the biggest thing is obvious since Rodri's not there, that

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Speaker 1: limits the amount of control that City can have. But

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Speaker 1: I think the bigger loss if he's not going to

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Speaker 1: play is Kevin de Bruyna, because if you remember that

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Speaker 1: match last season, he came on in like the sixtieth

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Speaker 1: minute and he torched Newcastle because he is really the

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Speaker 1: only guy who can play balls over the top and

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Speaker 1: create against these really compact low blocks. You saw that

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Speaker 1: aainst Arsenal without him, I mean, City was just passing

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Speaker 1: the ball back and forth up top. Their center backs

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Speaker 1: took thirteen shots, like that's just going to become the norm.

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Speaker 1: And even if you watch them in the AFL Cup,

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Speaker 1: I know they have played a completely rotated squad, but

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Speaker 1: Watford sat in the most compact five three two I've

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Speaker 1: ever seen and they just kept passing the ball around

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Speaker 1: and just taking shots from outside the box. So I'm

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Speaker 1: not so sure City can break down these type of

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Speaker 1: low defensive structures without Kevin de Bruyne available.

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Speaker 5: You know.

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Speaker 1: The tricky and the tricky part here is like when

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Speaker 1: do you buy the price on Newcastle right because if

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Speaker 1: we don't know the status for de Bruyna right now,

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Speaker 1: he's I think Lissa is doubtful, you know, maybe questionable.

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Speaker 1: At best City open at minus one seventy five. Now

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Speaker 1: they're down at minus one sixty five now that Roder's out.

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Speaker 1: I have a really hard time believing they're going to

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Speaker 1: get back to minus one seventy five, even if De

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Speaker 1: Bruyne comes back in. So for me, I like Newcastle

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Speaker 1: plus one. They've obviously been amazing at Saint James Park

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Speaker 1: since you know, the start of the twenty twenty two

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Speaker 1: to twenty three season, they have a plus one point

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Speaker 1: two three expected goal differential for ninety minutes. So I

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Speaker 1: think this is a good spot on Newcastle. Like I

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Speaker 1: have City projected at minus one thirty seven assuming they

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Speaker 1: were fully healthy. So you know, you take about you know,

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Speaker 1: ten to fifteen to twenty cents off for Rodri I

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Speaker 1: think you're getting a price closer to minus one twenty

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Speaker 1: on City of where it should be.

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Speaker 3: There's always one match, I think, on a slate, and

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Speaker 3: this goes across like any sport that I say this

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Speaker 3: quite a bit like if you were to ask me

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Speaker 3: to make a bet here, I just feel like, no

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Speaker 3: matter which option I pick, will end up losing. And

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Speaker 3: that's how I feel about the next one we're going

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Speaker 3: to talk about seven Sunday, eleven thirty am Eastern between

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Speaker 3: United and Spurs.

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Speaker 2: The United is plus one.

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Speaker 3: Twenty five at Old Trafford, Spurs plus one eighty the

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Speaker 3: Jaws plus two ninety. Tottenham with a really compelling strong

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Speaker 3: performance against Brentford and that came on the heels of

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Speaker 3: what was a good showing against Arsenal in a one

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Speaker 3: zero loss as well, like they played all right in

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Speaker 3: that one. They were pretty good against Newcastle the week

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Speaker 3: before that. You look their schedule and if you look

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Speaker 3: at it kind of soberly, the Lester draw looks ugly.

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Speaker 3: But we talked about that game, right, They dominated, just

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Speaker 3: couldn't finish absolutely smoked Everton, smoked Brentford and then the

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Speaker 3: two kind of tough losses against Arsenal Newcastle. So I

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Speaker 3: don't know if this team's results are painting a fair

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Speaker 3: picture of them. I think they should probably be maybe

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Speaker 3: a couple points higher in the standings. That said, I

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Speaker 3: do also think that they have the profile of a

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Speaker 3: team that can kind of just not either not make

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Speaker 3: good or bear fruit on like good performances, and sometimes

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Speaker 3: they just might throw up a dud. And now they're

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Speaker 3: playing a team in United, who I mean, do you

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Speaker 3: want to talk about a team that can drive someone

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Speaker 3: up a wall? This is certainly one A nil nil

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Speaker 3: against Pallas over the weekend, which they were the better team.

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Speaker 2: I can't believe. I don't know how that game stayed

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Speaker 2: on nil nil. I'm really met. I wasn't a part

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Speaker 2: of it.

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Speaker 3: They they got pants by Liverpool, comprehensively beat by Brighton,

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Speaker 3: a good performance in the open air against Fulham and

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Speaker 3: the big win against Southampton too, So I feel like

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Speaker 3: these teams are kind of just on level pegging and

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Speaker 3: they both have obvious flaws and obvious strengths. And United's

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Speaker 3: at home, so it makes sense for them to be

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Speaker 3: the slight favorite here or the favorite here. And I

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Speaker 3: don't know, I just all that said, like it's a

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Speaker 3: recipe for me to just run far away from this gameja,

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Speaker 3: I don't want any part of it.

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Speaker 1: I don't either. I think this is I mean, I

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Speaker 1: don't even know what to make of this match. And

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Speaker 1: I think this is one of those situations where, you know,

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Speaker 1: if you're somebody who bets, you know, over I understand

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Speaker 1: there are people that just come in for the weekend

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Speaker 1: and then you know, maybe they might pit or pat

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Speaker 1: her out. But if you're somebody who's betting the Premier

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Speaker 1: League like week in and week out over a long period,

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Speaker 1: this is a match where you're going to learn a

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Speaker 1: lot about both teams, right because you know, United has

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Speaker 1: been a better build up team, They've been better out

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Speaker 1: of possession. But I think the real question mark is

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Speaker 1: is what do they do out of possession? In this match,

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Speaker 1: because it's pretty clear that the way to beat Tottenham

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Speaker 1: is to sit deep and to not press them, and

200
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Speaker 1: they're not going to be able to generate a lot

201
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Speaker 1: of chances. And United has proven over a long period

202
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Speaker 1: of time were like you know about you know, the

203
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Speaker 1: beginning of this season, even partly last season, that if

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Speaker 1: they're at full strength playing in a compact structure, they're

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Speaker 1: actually pretty good. Where they suck is when they try

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Speaker 1: to press teams. So I think that's the biggest question

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Speaker 1: mark of what United does here as far as Tottenham

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Speaker 1: is concerned. You know, Liverpool really gave United a lot

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Speaker 1: of problems with their press and they set and sitting

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Speaker 1: in that type of mid block. So I think Tottenham

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Speaker 1: can cause problems and maybe generate some easy chances here

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Speaker 1: and there. But it might be a good opportunity to

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Speaker 1: live bet whoever just goes down just betting the opposite

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Speaker 1: side as well. That might be an angle to play here.

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Speaker 1: So for me, I'm passing. I have this projected right

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Speaker 1: in line with the market, so I have zero interest

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Speaker 1: in betting this match. But it will be a fun

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Speaker 1: match to lie, I think, because whoever goes down first

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Speaker 1: is going to obviously crank the pressure up, crank the

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Speaker 1: aggression up, and try to get back into the game.

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Speaker 1: So and both these defenses are very vulnerable and blow leads,

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Speaker 1: you know, routinely. So that's the way I would play it.

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Speaker 3: Sam, any any interest in getting involved here? Are you

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Speaker 3: joining us and just sprinting away from this one?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: Kind of. I've got a better just if you want

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Speaker 4: to have a bit of fun. It's kind of same

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Speaker 4: game parlay. But I'll be honest, I hate all of

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Speaker 4: the main markets here in what is a game involving

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Speaker 4: two sides, I'm just not sure about in the minute

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Speaker 4: From a betting perspective, three point five is the go line,

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Speaker 4: which is where I'd have it as a boot maker.

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Speaker 4: United slight favorites, but still not convinced how much I

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Speaker 4: want to trust them, especially after they're going to host

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Speaker 4: FC twenty midweek, which might not be a walk in

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Speaker 4: the park. Twenty scored in sixteen consecutive games, so that

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Speaker 4: might be harder than it looks for them. Tottenham played

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Speaker 4: carra Bag on Thursday, so there's a lot of minutes

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Speaker 4: going into the legs of these players. Again, we saw

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Speaker 4: as we spoke about Rodery buckle in the Arsenal penalty

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Speaker 4: era on the weekend after a busy summer, so it's

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Speaker 4: really hard to know exactly where these teams will be at.

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Speaker 4: I want to buy into this being a blockbuster one

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Speaker 4: for the Ages despite increased workloads. I really hope that's

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Speaker 4: what we get. We know Tottenham's going to go for it.

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Speaker 4: I hope United do too. Like BJ said, it's going

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Speaker 4: to be interesting to see how they set up to

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Speaker 4: kind of quell this Tottenham side. Both teams to score

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Speaker 4: is at minus two seven eight, which is criminal, but

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Speaker 4: you compare that with over three cards in the same

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Speaker 4: game parlay and you can get to which I think

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Speaker 4: is minus one two three So short price, not much

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Speaker 4: value there, but I would like to think we get

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Speaker 4: goals and I'd like to think we get cards as well.

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Speaker 4: Chris cavan is the ref three point seven to seven

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Speaker 4: cards per ninety averaging all competitions last term. He's just

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Speaker 4: giving out six yellows in Arsenal verse Brian at the

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Speaker 4: end of August and then six again and Wolves versus

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Speaker 4: Newcastle in September. So if you want a bet to

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Speaker 4: just kind of cheer along in a match which might

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Speaker 4: descend into a little bit of chaos then both team

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Speaker 4: score and over three cards at minus one two three.

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Speaker 4: But I'll say the value is very much not there.

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Speaker 3: That brings us to Arsenal and Leicester two title rivals

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Speaker 3: from about eight years ago. Arsenals minus five seventy five

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Speaker 3: at home Leicester thirteen to one on the road to

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Speaker 3: draw here is plus seven fifty Arsenal of course, coming

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Speaker 3: off of the two to two against City. I agree

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Speaker 3: with you here, Sam, you want who jogged down this

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Speaker 3: bed first. I don't know if there's a path to

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Speaker 3: scoring here for Leicester, So backing Arsenal to win in

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Speaker 3: a shutout or in some sort of alternate spread or

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Speaker 3: something I think is the way to go.

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Speaker 4: Yes, there is a path for Leicester to score here,

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Speaker 4: and that's if a sixteen year old starts and go

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Speaker 4: for them at the weekend best Leicester like he's going

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Speaker 4: to tonight against Bowin. There are rumors that David Raya

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Speaker 4: may be injured, So what I would do here is

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Speaker 4: I would just keep an eye on how Arsenal versus

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Speaker 4: Bolton goes, have a look for team news, see who's

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Speaker 4: going to set up for Arsenal on the weekend. If

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Speaker 4: it's David Rya, Gabrielle's Saliba and the rest of them,

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Speaker 4: then this is very much on. I think probably do

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Speaker 4: the same bet for Southampton next weekend as well. Leicester

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Speaker 4: stumped up zero point five XG after eighty minutes away

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Speaker 4: in Warsaw last night.

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Speaker 5: League to Warsaw.

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Speaker 4: That kind of sums up what they're about in the

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Speaker 4: final third right now. They won that game last night,

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Speaker 4: needed penalties, They started Edward decord over Reid won a

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Speaker 4: not am fatter across their front line full strength. I

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Speaker 4: just bringing Jordan au in to Chipping goes in the

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Speaker 4: Premier League, I'm just not having it os And Edward

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Speaker 4: wasn't Steve Coober's first choice. I think they'd kind of

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Speaker 4: identified a few players before him up top. And we

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Speaker 4: spoke about Jamie Vardy already.

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Speaker 5: Yeah on an.

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Speaker 4: Uncovering o ground. I don't think Jamie Vardi is your

299
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Speaker 4: man either. And despite scoring six goals in the Premier League,

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Speaker 4: Leicester have only managed three point nine to nine XG

301
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Speaker 4: in five Premier League games, second verse to only Ipswich

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Speaker 4: and they've only recorded one point zero XG or more

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Speaker 4: in two out of five Premier League games. So when

304
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Speaker 4: you come into the Emirates when you're coming up against

305
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Speaker 4: this Arsenal batline at home, it might maybe a bit

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Speaker 4: of recency bias after what I saw them do in

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Speaker 4: the second half against Man City that is very much

308
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Speaker 4: fresh in my mind. But I just don't know if

309
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Speaker 4: that same kind of fortune or luck it's going to

310
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Speaker 4: follow Leicester to the Emirates. So if they continue posting

311
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Speaker 4: less than one point zero XG throughout a ninety minute period,

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Speaker 4: then they may not find the netter. So Winter Neil

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Speaker 4: are minus one twenty for Arsenal.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I'm on the same line, so like

315
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Speaker 1: under three plus one or five. So Arsenal has had

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Speaker 1: the misfortune of playing down a man for some egregious

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Speaker 1: calls twice now, but playing just eleven v eleven this season,

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Speaker 1: they're only allowing point eight x cheaper ninety minutes. That's

319
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Speaker 1: second best only Liverpool. The defense is still incredible, Like

320
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Speaker 1: there's you know, you can look at all the stats,

321
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Speaker 1: a lot of them are wankle wonky because they've played

322
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Speaker 1: basically a full match down a man. But you know,

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Speaker 1: Sam obviously already hit the nail on the head with

324
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Speaker 1: Lester's offense. As far as Arsenal's offense is concerned, I mean,

325
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Speaker 1: they miss Ouda Guard a lot, and them selling Fabio

326
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Speaker 1: Vieira and Emil smith Row in the summer has just

327
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Speaker 1: proven to be maybe not the best strategy because they

328
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Speaker 1: don't have anybody behind oda Guard that can create the

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Speaker 1: way that he does, which means there's more pressure on Sokka.

330
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Speaker 1: He's getting doubled and he can't do anything. Same thing

331
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Speaker 1: with Martinelli on the left. Everts we know is you know,

332
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Speaker 1: he's fine in a system that has someone like Odegard

333
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Speaker 1: who can create, but just leaving him up top alone

334
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Speaker 1: is not the best strategy. And I listen, Steve Cooper's

335
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Speaker 1: got his lesser team in a really well drilled five

336
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Speaker 1: three two low block. I mean, the only concern here

337
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Speaker 1: for Lester really, I mean, obviously the considers some concerns

338
00:17:19,960 --> 00:17:21,880
Speaker 1: were well in play, but they've just conceded a ton

339
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Speaker 1: off of set pieces, and obviously Arsenal is one of

340
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Speaker 1: the best, so that's the big concern. That's probably Arsenal's

341
00:17:27,600 --> 00:17:31,280
Speaker 1: best path to actually scoring a goal. So for me,

342
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Speaker 1: you know, Arsenal's got PSG in the Champions League coming up,

343
00:17:35,040 --> 00:17:37,600
Speaker 1: be you know, I mean, they're They're probably gonna play

344
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Speaker 1: the Academy Kids on Wednesday. You're gonna listening to this

345
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Speaker 1: on Thursday, so we don't know, but I'll be interesting

346
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Speaker 1: to see what type of lineup they play. You know,

347
00:17:45,119 --> 00:17:48,399
Speaker 1: they're like you said, dobvid Rye might not play. Although

348
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Speaker 1: they brought in Nato, who has been a very good

349
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Speaker 1: cold goalkeeper for Burnmouth, always positive post shot, actually post

350
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Speaker 1: minus in his days on the South Coast, so I

351
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Speaker 1: don't think there'll be a huge drop off to him.

352
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Speaker 1: But yeah, I don't know how Lester's scoring here, but

353
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Speaker 1: I have a little bit of concerns the Arsenal's offense

354
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Speaker 1: without Oda guard looks like he's gonna be back October fifteenth,

355
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Speaker 1: so Arsen's probably gonna struggle up until that point.

356
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Speaker 3: Okay, so not expecting too many goals in that one,

357
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Speaker 3: or we're hoping for the next one.

358
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Speaker 2: Chelsea and Brighton.

359
00:18:18,040 --> 00:18:20,399
Speaker 3: Chelsea's minus one forty at home, Brighton plus three thirty

360
00:18:20,680 --> 00:18:23,639
Speaker 3: on the road of the draws plus three twenty. I

361
00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:26,639
Speaker 3: know what I'm supposed to do in this situation. You know,

362
00:18:26,680 --> 00:18:29,680
Speaker 3: We've been talking about this Chelsea team quite a bit.

363
00:18:29,800 --> 00:18:33,600
Speaker 3: They look pretty impressive of late. They haven't lost since

364
00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:37,920
Speaker 3: the opener to City, and it does look like Maresca

365
00:18:38,000 --> 00:18:41,080
Speaker 3: has a decent kind of just handle on how to

366
00:18:41,760 --> 00:18:46,520
Speaker 3: manage the squad. And then you have Brighton, who came

367
00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:49,199
Speaker 3: out of the blocks of Gangbusters with the win over Everden,

368
00:18:49,240 --> 00:18:54,800
Speaker 3: then the win against Man United, a good draw against Arsenal,

369
00:18:54,800 --> 00:18:57,320
Speaker 3: and then they put up nil nil against Ipswich, which

370
00:18:57,840 --> 00:19:01,439
Speaker 3: nobody sucked coming, and then to two draw against a

371
00:19:01,440 --> 00:19:04,199
Speaker 3: really feisty Forest team, and now they take on a

372
00:19:04,240 --> 00:19:08,320
Speaker 3: Chelsea team, and I still don't know if the gap

373
00:19:08,359 --> 00:19:10,520
Speaker 3: is as why as these odds suggest between these two

374
00:19:10,520 --> 00:19:13,159
Speaker 3: teams at this very moment, like it might be just

375
00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:15,919
Speaker 3: overall when we get to the end of the season.

376
00:19:17,760 --> 00:19:21,119
Speaker 3: I do think, if you like flip this the results

377
00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:22,639
Speaker 3: from Brighton, like they come out of the gates with

378
00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:24,879
Speaker 3: those two draws and then they put together the wins,

379
00:19:25,240 --> 00:19:26,480
Speaker 3: this number looks a lot shorter.

380
00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:28,600
Speaker 2: I believe in them.

381
00:19:28,640 --> 00:19:31,600
Speaker 3: I still think that they can cause a rucus against

382
00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:35,040
Speaker 3: you know, the big big six sides, et cetera. So

383
00:19:35,600 --> 00:19:38,280
Speaker 3: I know I'm supposed to bet be Brighton here BJ

384
00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:41,680
Speaker 3: I think I'm gonna get there, But this Chelsea team,

385
00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:43,119
Speaker 3: like I want to know it's it's one of those

386
00:19:43,160 --> 00:19:45,520
Speaker 3: situations like, are we gonna find out this is like

387
00:19:45,520 --> 00:19:47,000
Speaker 3: the match where we find out if if what we're

388
00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:47,640
Speaker 3: seeing is real.

389
00:19:48,359 --> 00:19:52,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with that, and I think that the

390
00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:55,600
Speaker 1: best way to play this is to wait and see

391
00:19:55,640 --> 00:19:58,040
Speaker 1: where the line moves, because I think that there is

392
00:19:58,080 --> 00:20:02,320
Speaker 1: a good possibility that Chelsea could get north of minus

393
00:20:02,320 --> 00:20:04,320
Speaker 1: one fifty even to minus one sixty, and you can

394
00:20:04,320 --> 00:20:06,399
Speaker 1: get a decent price on Brighton plus one. By the

395
00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:09,000
Speaker 1: time we reach match time. There's not many there's not

396
00:20:09,080 --> 00:20:12,879
Speaker 1: too many concerning injuries. You know, jile Pedro is questionable

397
00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:15,359
Speaker 1: for this one. But you know, thinking about Brighton, I

398
00:20:15,359 --> 00:20:17,360
Speaker 1: mean they're the deepest attacking team in the Premier League

399
00:20:17,359 --> 00:20:19,359
Speaker 1: and there's really no debate about that. They have so

400
00:20:19,400 --> 00:20:22,000
Speaker 1: many guys they can bring in and give the level

401
00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:24,560
Speaker 1: of production over and over again. Because it's like if

402
00:20:24,600 --> 00:20:26,720
Speaker 1: jile Pedro doesn't come in, well then it's gonna be

403
00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:28,840
Speaker 1: probably like Evan Ferguson, or it's going to be a

404
00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:31,000
Speaker 1: Dingro or like all those guys can still do it.

405
00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:37,159
Speaker 1: One thing, so Brighton is playing very aggressively out of possession.

406
00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:38,919
Speaker 1: They're playing a very high line and they're doing a

407
00:20:38,920 --> 00:20:42,480
Speaker 1: really good job at disrupting build up play. And you

408
00:20:42,520 --> 00:20:46,600
Speaker 1: know Chelsea the last few matches or so, they got

409
00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:50,159
Speaker 1: hammered by Brighton's press or hammered by bournmous press on

410
00:20:50,200 --> 00:20:53,000
Speaker 1: the road. They played west Ham and then they played

411
00:20:53,200 --> 00:20:55,480
Speaker 1: krist Palace. West Ham is the worst defensive team in

412
00:20:55,520 --> 00:20:59,000
Speaker 1: the league. Maybe maybe if switches, but Chris Palace is

413
00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:01,879
Speaker 1: playing incredibly passive as well. So this is like the

414
00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:03,760
Speaker 1: the second time they're going to face a good press,

415
00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:05,600
Speaker 1: and the first time they faced it they didn't do

416
00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:08,040
Speaker 1: a good job. They stole Wain at Bournemouth and created

417
00:21:08,080 --> 00:21:12,400
Speaker 1: really nothing. Herzler will not be on the sidelines because

418
00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:14,119
Speaker 1: he got a red card. I still don't understand why

419
00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:16,760
Speaker 1: he got the red card in that match against Forest.

420
00:21:16,800 --> 00:21:17,840
Speaker 1: That's still is puzzling to me.

421
00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:20,359
Speaker 2: I understand you coach is missing this weekend.

422
00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:23,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, Nuna was yelling a lot and I'm I'm guessing

423
00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:25,280
Speaker 1: some obscenities were being thrown at the ref. So I

424
00:21:25,280 --> 00:21:27,720
Speaker 1: get that red card, but I didn't see Herzler say anything,

425
00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:30,359
Speaker 1: And I don't understand why you was so upset. But

426
00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:33,120
Speaker 1: that kind of concerns me a little bit, with him

427
00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:35,119
Speaker 1: being such a new coach and such a new system

428
00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:39,400
Speaker 1: and everything like that, So that kind of part of it,

429
00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:41,400
Speaker 1: you know, makes me a little bit uneasy. But again,

430
00:21:41,480 --> 00:21:43,679
Speaker 1: if we get to Brighton plus one, I have to

431
00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:45,720
Speaker 1: play that like I have Chelsea at minus one ten here,

432
00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:51,280
Speaker 1: So yeah, I think this is a decent chance for Brighton,

433
00:21:51,760 --> 00:21:53,200
Speaker 1: but I just need a better price.

434
00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:56,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, I would like Brighton plus one. I think that'll

435
00:21:56,920 --> 00:21:59,280
Speaker 4: be a good bet because I like goes here and

436
00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:02,560
Speaker 4: I'll think if if Brighton can get on the scoreesheet,

437
00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:05,760
Speaker 4: which I think they have in them, then that plus

438
00:22:05,760 --> 00:22:08,520
Speaker 4: one will look pretty good. Chelsea are improving, like you mentioned,

439
00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:11,360
Speaker 4: but that game last week, I'm not sure how much

440
00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:13,360
Speaker 4: we can take from it from a Chelsea point of view.

441
00:22:13,359 --> 00:22:15,240
Speaker 4: And that's no slight on them, because you can only

442
00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:18,680
Speaker 4: beat what's in front of you. But west Ham four

443
00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:21,520
Speaker 4: really bad. We'll talk about them in the next game,

444
00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:25,320
Speaker 4: but really really bad. But yeah, now Chelsea minus one

445
00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:28,359
Speaker 4: for three at home after a decent start to the season.

446
00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:32,040
Speaker 4: Players coming into form. Nicholas Jackson is very much feeling

447
00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:35,119
Speaker 4: himself five mil in the Cup against League two Barrow

448
00:22:35,160 --> 00:22:37,879
Speaker 4: on Tuesday nights, So the feeling's good in the Chelsea camp.

449
00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:38,960
Speaker 5: Not something I.

450
00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:41,680
Speaker 4: Would have really foreseen to this extent a couple of

451
00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:44,480
Speaker 4: months ago. But like I said, I like goes. Many

452
00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:47,520
Speaker 4: people will over. Three point zero is the line and

453
00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:51,280
Speaker 4: minus one twenty it's okay, it doesn't really get me going.

454
00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:55,240
Speaker 4: I think that's set about right. But elsewhere Nicholas Jackson,

455
00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:59,440
Speaker 4: with him finding his rhythm and the plethora of attacking

456
00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:03,200
Speaker 4: talent behind plus one seventy five for Jackson, anytime scorer.

457
00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:06,760
Speaker 4: Won't usually put any time go scorers up on this podcast,

458
00:23:06,800 --> 00:23:09,840
Speaker 4: but I like that Chelsea leading striker. Don't think that's

459
00:23:09,840 --> 00:23:12,760
Speaker 4: the worst bet you'll see this weekend. Only Earling Holland

460
00:23:12,840 --> 00:23:16,600
Speaker 4: has a higher XG this season than Nicholas Jackson's three

461
00:23:16,640 --> 00:23:20,480
Speaker 4: point two eight x G from thirteen shots. Holand has

462
00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:23,600
Speaker 4: taken exactly double the amount of shots Jackson has amounted

463
00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:27,440
Speaker 4: to five point eight one XG total, But obviously we're

464
00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:29,199
Speaker 4: comparing him to one of the best strikers that has

465
00:23:29,240 --> 00:23:32,080
Speaker 4: ever lived. But regardless, it's been a decent start for

466
00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:35,160
Speaker 4: the Chelsea front man. He scored fourteen and thirty one

467
00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:37,760
Speaker 4: starts last season, so I think that's a pretty good

468
00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:39,680
Speaker 4: price for him to get on the score Shoet this weekend.

469
00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:42,440
Speaker 3: Let's talk about west Ham there plus two twenty five

470
00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:45,000
Speaker 3: on the road at Brentford, the B's plus one twenty

471
00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:49,560
Speaker 3: in the draws plus two sixty. I like Brentford here,

472
00:23:49,800 --> 00:23:51,680
Speaker 3: but I also want to throw out there that west

473
00:23:51,680 --> 00:23:55,919
Speaker 3: Ham is twenty three to one to be relegated. I

474
00:23:55,960 --> 00:23:59,400
Speaker 3: don't think that's a bad bet because the way that's

475
00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:02,960
Speaker 3: the defense is played has been just it's been bad,

476
00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:05,000
Speaker 3: not just this year, right, so it's not just no

477
00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:07,240
Speaker 3: pategy coming and not having like a handle on it.

478
00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:08,479
Speaker 2: They were really bad last year.

479
00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:10,800
Speaker 3: So this could be a more of like a situation

480
00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:15,800
Speaker 3: where there's actual some serious rot than anything else. And

481
00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:18,720
Speaker 3: the problem with the with them getting relegated is like

482
00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:22,600
Speaker 3: the bottom of the league. Right now, there are six

483
00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:27,600
Speaker 3: winless teams right Lester Palace, Ipswich, Southampton, Evident and Wolfs.

484
00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:29,800
Speaker 3: None of them have won a game yet, which I've

485
00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:31,800
Speaker 3: never seen anything like that before we were this far

486
00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:33,800
Speaker 3: into a season. We have six teams that have yet

487
00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:37,560
Speaker 3: to win. You'd expect that Lester, Ipswich and Southampton especially

488
00:24:37,640 --> 00:24:40,760
Speaker 3: will struggle. We might see another team kind of come

489
00:24:40,800 --> 00:24:43,040
Speaker 3: down towards them. But with the way that like a

490
00:24:43,080 --> 00:24:45,439
Speaker 3: team like Forrest is trending away the teams teams like

491
00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:48,439
Speaker 3: Follomer trending. We're starting to maybe Brentford as well, Like

492
00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:51,600
Speaker 3: these teams are starting to separate themselves from the pack.

493
00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:55,600
Speaker 3: Where I think we're looking at a pretty clear cohort

494
00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:59,600
Speaker 3: of teams that are an that I think have a

495
00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:02,960
Speaker 3: chance going down, that being west Ham Leicester. I'm not

496
00:25:03,000 --> 00:25:04,520
Speaker 3: even gonna put Palace in there. I do think that

497
00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:09,040
Speaker 3: they correct themselves, Ipswich, Southampton, Everton and Wolves. So out

498
00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:12,159
Speaker 3: of that, now you're dealing with six teams and I

499
00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:16,200
Speaker 3: don't know if I trust west Ham to sort their

500
00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:20,800
Speaker 3: defensive issues out well enough to get away from this pack,

501
00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:23,879
Speaker 3: and that's really all you're asking for. So I think

502
00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:26,159
Speaker 3: that they can outrun those odds at twenty three to

503
00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:28,359
Speaker 3: one to go down, don't. I don't think that's a

504
00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:30,960
Speaker 3: bad bed at all, Sam. I think we'll continue to

505
00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:33,680
Speaker 3: bet against this west Ham team until they show us

506
00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:36,280
Speaker 3: any signs of life, Like it's just crazy.

507
00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:38,760
Speaker 5: Twenty three to one. I love it.

508
00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:41,800
Speaker 4: The only thing is if this continues, Lopotage has gone

509
00:25:41,840 --> 00:25:45,400
Speaker 4: and he's gone very soon, so obviously that's the that's

510
00:25:45,480 --> 00:25:47,560
Speaker 4: what you need to consider when taking a relegation.

511
00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:50,320
Speaker 2: Pun but yeah, just bring back David Moyes.

512
00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:53,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, get him bark call it Big Sam.

513
00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:55,480
Speaker 2: Give it Big Sam for the rest of the year.

514
00:25:55,600 --> 00:25:57,080
Speaker 1: Call it Big Sam. He's been he's been doing a

515
00:25:57,119 --> 00:26:00,920
Speaker 1: lot of talking, so maybe he can back it up, maybe.

516
00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:01,320
Speaker 2: Both of them.

517
00:26:01,480 --> 00:26:01,840
Speaker 1: Yeah.

518
00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:06,560
Speaker 2: A relegation, a relegation, super team.

519
00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:09,640
Speaker 1: Make it a trio. Bring Roy wheelchair.

520
00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:12,200
Speaker 2: Get we get to Lewis in there too.

521
00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:15,199
Speaker 1: Just three men, three men coaching crew, bring them all in.

522
00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:21,520
Speaker 4: Before Saturday's game, west Ham had never lost their first

523
00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:26,720
Speaker 4: three home games of a season, so both managers had

524
00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:29,760
Speaker 4: changed both teams, sorry, had changed the managers since their

525
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:33,560
Speaker 4: last meeting in May, so obviously now lapotage versus Maresca,

526
00:26:33,760 --> 00:26:36,800
Speaker 4: and it took just four minutes for them to concede.

527
00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:40,440
Speaker 4: Sancho got an assist, Jackson did the heavy lifting. I

528
00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:43,359
Speaker 4: don't know if you can remember the go really poor

529
00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:46,359
Speaker 4: go to concede. There was so much space on the

530
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:50,080
Speaker 4: left for Chelsea to exploit, and Jackson just waltz through.

531
00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:52,399
Speaker 4: Rodriguez couldn't keep up with him. I think he was

532
00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:56,040
Speaker 4: tasked like man to man mark Jackson in the first half,

533
00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:59,600
Speaker 4: which just didn't work, and he just it was just

534
00:27:00,400 --> 00:27:03,159
Speaker 4: nowhere near quick enough to keep up with Jackson. It

535
00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:06,280
Speaker 4: kind of reminded me of like when you were training,

536
00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:08,240
Speaker 4: like in a training drill when you were like eight

537
00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:10,359
Speaker 4: years old, and the coach would step in for a

538
00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:12,040
Speaker 4: minute or so and get on the ball and just

539
00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:14,560
Speaker 4: keep people arms length. It was exactly like that. It

540
00:27:14,600 --> 00:27:17,760
Speaker 4: was literally like men verse boys. There was nowhere near him.

541
00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:20,240
Speaker 4: He just ran through and just put it through the

542
00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:24,000
Speaker 4: keeper's legs. And this Jackson second goal was almost as

543
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:27,480
Speaker 4: embarrassing as the first. Actually almost Chelsea knocked it around

544
00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:31,400
Speaker 4: like they were up against eleven mannekins. There was no

545
00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:34,200
Speaker 4: real pressure on the ball, there were certainly no challenges

546
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:36,360
Speaker 4: of note, and three or four passes and they were

547
00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:39,000
Speaker 4: through like a knife through butter. It was like west

548
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:42,120
Speaker 4: Ham went even on the pitch and defensively for them.

549
00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:46,000
Speaker 4: It's just especially that first half, very concerning. Straight after

550
00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:49,800
Speaker 4: half time, quick Chelsea break, west Ham players jogging back

551
00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:52,879
Speaker 4: and I think Poketa might have even slowed down to

552
00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:57,159
Speaker 4: a halt when chasing Cole Palmer before the Chelsea man

553
00:27:57,240 --> 00:28:00,840
Speaker 4: scored a fad with what was a delightful finish. But yeah,

554
00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:04,119
Speaker 4: Chelsea had three on two following a passage of playing

555
00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:08,159
Speaker 4: Chelsea's defensive third. It took three passes I think, and

556
00:28:08,240 --> 00:28:12,360
Speaker 4: there was three on two in west Ham's box in

557
00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:16,200
Speaker 4: west Ham's half. Sorry, it was just really poor. And

558
00:28:16,400 --> 00:28:20,320
Speaker 4: if you turn up to Brentford like that, in the

559
00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:23,359
Speaker 4: same shape, Brentford will do exactly the same to west

560
00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:26,320
Speaker 4: Ham as Chelsea did. If they arrive in similar fashion,

561
00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:28,639
Speaker 4: west Ham or shall play on Wednesday night in the

562
00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:31,520
Speaker 4: AFL Cup at anfield where they might get the run around,

563
00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:35,920
Speaker 4: which is not ideal. Lopotage, you would say, needs positive results.

564
00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:39,160
Speaker 4: He wants to win trophies like David Moyes before him,

565
00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:41,680
Speaker 4: so he might be forced him to play a lot

566
00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:44,480
Speaker 4: of the big guns on Wednesday. And I feel like

567
00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:46,760
Speaker 4: Brentford and west Ham are quite evenly matched. To be honest,

568
00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:49,440
Speaker 4: I think they'll likely finish in the same ballpark if

569
00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:53,720
Speaker 4: west Ham can sort their defensive issues out. If you

570
00:28:53,800 --> 00:28:56,440
Speaker 4: like Brentford here like me, but you aren't totally convinced

571
00:28:56,480 --> 00:28:59,120
Speaker 4: and would like a bit of security than Brentford minus

572
00:28:59,120 --> 00:29:01,960
Speaker 4: serial point two far with the draw on our side

573
00:29:02,040 --> 00:29:04,720
Speaker 4: at minus one of five might be a way to go.

574
00:29:04,840 --> 00:29:08,320
Speaker 4: I just think that Brentford have well Brentford get a

575
00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:12,880
Speaker 4: bit of joy here against this west Ham defense because

576
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:14,560
Speaker 4: it is looking really bad.

577
00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:18,320
Speaker 1: You know what it is, It's like you took David

578
00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:20,760
Speaker 1: Moyes's low block and you just moved to twenty yards

579
00:29:20,840 --> 00:29:23,800
Speaker 1: up the pitch. That's what they've done. They've just taken

580
00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:25,680
Speaker 1: their low block to a high block and they have

581
00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:29,560
Speaker 1: the same amount of problems. The amount of space in

582
00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:32,480
Speaker 1: the middle that Chelsea was able to just pass the

583
00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:35,560
Speaker 1: ball through was like alarming. They're not providing it, like

584
00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:38,240
Speaker 1: Sam said, they're not providing any ball pressure. So you're

585
00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:40,360
Speaker 1: just kind of sitting in this high block. You're not

586
00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:44,360
Speaker 1: really forcing turnovers. You're just kind of letting teams play through.

587
00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:46,320
Speaker 1: And so since you're playing a high line, teams can

588
00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:49,520
Speaker 1: just play off the back of you and create chances. Well,

589
00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:52,400
Speaker 1: how does Brentford create all other chances? A lot of

590
00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:54,720
Speaker 1: those three balls in behind to Umbuemo, That's how he

591
00:29:54,800 --> 00:29:57,080
Speaker 1: creates most of them. The most of their chances come

592
00:29:57,080 --> 00:30:00,360
Speaker 1: in transition. The one thing I'll say about Brentford, which

593
00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:03,640
Speaker 1: is I don't want to say concerning, and this match

594
00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:05,920
Speaker 1: is not concerning, But when they play against good like

595
00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:08,640
Speaker 1: what they did against Tottenham is Thomas Frank is trying

596
00:30:08,680 --> 00:30:13,520
Speaker 1: to transition them to a team that controls matches, builds

597
00:30:13,520 --> 00:30:15,800
Speaker 1: out of the back, presses high all this you know,

598
00:30:16,120 --> 00:30:20,720
Speaker 1: modern stuff to raise the ceiling of them, which I

599
00:30:20,800 --> 00:30:23,280
Speaker 1: get to a certain extent, right because if you play

600
00:30:23,360 --> 00:30:25,560
Speaker 1: three you know, three five to two low block, counter

601
00:30:25,560 --> 00:30:30,280
Speaker 1: attacking football, like you know, what's your peak on that, right,

602
00:30:30,320 --> 00:30:32,720
Speaker 1: finishing like ninth or eighth. So I know he wants

603
00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:34,120
Speaker 1: to get them to the next level and there's gonna

604
00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:35,800
Speaker 1: be some growing pains with that. That's not going to

605
00:30:35,840 --> 00:30:37,360
Speaker 1: happen in this match because well, like I said, west

606
00:30:37,360 --> 00:30:39,760
Speaker 1: Ham's not going to apply any ball pressure. But beyond

607
00:30:39,800 --> 00:30:43,040
Speaker 1: the lookout for that for Brentford, you know, they used

608
00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:46,160
Speaker 1: to be when they played lesser teams like you know

609
00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:48,360
Speaker 1: west Ham for example, where they'd play out of four

610
00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:50,760
Speaker 1: to three three and they'd play more you know, build up,

611
00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:52,640
Speaker 1: pressing and all this stuff. But when they played against

612
00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:55,080
Speaker 1: the big boys, it was you know, three five two

613
00:30:55,080 --> 00:30:57,040
Speaker 1: low block. They're not doing the three five to two

614
00:30:57,040 --> 00:30:59,880
Speaker 1: low block that much anymore, which is a little concerning,

615
00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:04,360
Speaker 1: but again, good matchup from them here at home. Since

616
00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:08,040
Speaker 1: Brentford got promoted to the Premier League, they've been really

617
00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:11,000
Speaker 1: good at home plus nineteen expected gold differential over the

618
00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:14,160
Speaker 1: last three years. West Ham last season was minus fifteen

619
00:31:14,320 --> 00:31:17,000
Speaker 1: away from home. So great spot here for Brentford. I

620
00:31:17,000 --> 00:31:19,800
Speaker 1: have them projected closer to even money, so I like

621
00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:20,920
Speaker 1: them on plus one twenty five.

622
00:31:23,320 --> 00:31:26,360
Speaker 3: Okay, and now we have to do it. Unfortunately, talk

623
00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:27,200
Speaker 3: a little Everdon.

624
00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:34,640
Speaker 2: They are plus. We nailed that one on that, Michael.

625
00:31:35,840 --> 00:31:38,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, in the market and by the way, the market

626
00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:41,000
Speaker 1: moved incredibly in favor of Lester on Saturday morning. I

627
00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:43,760
Speaker 1: mean Lester was getting close to now even money. It

628
00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:45,200
Speaker 1: was crazy.

629
00:31:46,760 --> 00:31:50,280
Speaker 3: Anyways, they yeah, another blown lead for the topies. Now

630
00:31:50,320 --> 00:31:52,040
Speaker 3: they take on a Palace team that, like I said,

631
00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:54,560
Speaker 3: I think has a lot more teeth than their record shows.

632
00:31:55,800 --> 00:31:57,040
Speaker 3: I don't know if you want to say that about it.

633
00:31:57,040 --> 00:31:58,480
Speaker 3: I don't know what you want to say about Everdon.

634
00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:02,280
Speaker 3: Bja and I are passing because I'm not letting either

635
00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:04,800
Speaker 3: one of us touch this game. But Sam, you got

636
00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:07,560
Speaker 3: something for us and Everton in Palace, and it does

637
00:32:07,600 --> 00:32:10,240
Speaker 3: look the one silver lining for Everton.

638
00:32:10,280 --> 00:32:10,880
Speaker 2: It does look like.

639
00:32:10,840 --> 00:32:14,560
Speaker 3: They are getting Jared Brandswaite back and that should be

640
00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:20,200
Speaker 3: pretty helpful. Since Michael Keening, like Michael Kean the piss

641
00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:21,400
Speaker 3: to start the season.

642
00:32:21,400 --> 00:32:25,080
Speaker 4: I should say, well that is helpful and another big positive.

643
00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:30,160
Speaker 4: Michael Illminin dies first, Everton go taking brilliantly. He was

644
00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:33,640
Speaker 4: a shining light for Everton at the weekend. Really impressed

645
00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:36,160
Speaker 4: with him and Everton with the better team in the

646
00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:38,800
Speaker 4: first half. It flipped round in the second but the

647
00:32:38,840 --> 00:32:41,640
Speaker 4: onus switched to Leicester to try and get back into

648
00:32:41,680 --> 00:32:45,080
Speaker 4: the game, and that mixed with the general feeling around

649
00:32:45,080 --> 00:32:48,840
Speaker 4: Everton thanks to recent fixtures that lightning would strike and

650
00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:51,480
Speaker 4: they somehow can see saw less than them find the

651
00:32:51,600 --> 00:32:53,760
Speaker 4: net with twenty to go and then Everton had to

652
00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:55,520
Speaker 4: hang on. So this was very much a game of

653
00:32:55,600 --> 00:32:58,280
Speaker 4: two halfs. But again I think Everton might feel a

654
00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:01,120
Speaker 4: grieved that they've not won the game or put it

655
00:33:01,120 --> 00:33:05,280
Speaker 4: to bed earlier on better side for an hour or so. Yeah,

656
00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:07,880
Speaker 4: let's a stuck at got the goal they deserved them.

657
00:33:08,600 --> 00:33:11,640
Speaker 4: Evon are playing well, like I feel there is a

658
00:33:11,720 --> 00:33:15,840
Speaker 4: game coming where they will blow away their opponents. I'm

659
00:33:15,880 --> 00:33:19,840
Speaker 4: not sure if it's Palace at Home, so I'm not

660
00:33:19,880 --> 00:33:22,160
Speaker 4: going to bet on them to win. But one price

661
00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:23,760
Speaker 4: that stuck out to me it was over two point

662
00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:27,120
Speaker 4: five goals at minus one twelve. Everton have scored five

663
00:33:27,160 --> 00:33:30,720
Speaker 4: in their last three games. They've conceded fourteen in their

664
00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:33,160
Speaker 4: opening five games, more than any other side.

665
00:33:32,920 --> 00:33:33,720
Speaker 5: Matching Wolves.

666
00:33:34,640 --> 00:33:37,880
Speaker 4: Both Wolves and Everton both the biggest expected goes against

667
00:33:38,160 --> 00:33:42,480
Speaker 4: two goals conceded discrepancy in the Premier League. So Everton's

668
00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:46,120
Speaker 4: fourteen goes conceded from nine point zero two expected goes

669
00:33:46,160 --> 00:33:51,720
Speaker 4: against suggest they've been terribly unlucky, unfortunate, and that's likely

670
00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:53,800
Speaker 4: why we can get a two point five goal line

671
00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:56,480
Speaker 4: here with the bookie's projections having this under three goals.

672
00:33:56,480 --> 00:33:59,480
Speaker 4: I'd imagine, but I don't know. It's Evan, isn't it

673
00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:02,200
Speaker 4: so that this something deeper than expected goes and play here?

674
00:34:02,240 --> 00:34:02,720
Speaker 5: At present?

675
00:34:02,800 --> 00:34:06,520
Speaker 4: This is Evan Football Club. It's feels like, I don't know,

676
00:34:06,680 --> 00:34:09,040
Speaker 4: the ball is kind of being sucked into their net

677
00:34:09,080 --> 00:34:11,400
Speaker 4: whenever light appears at the end of the tunnel. And

678
00:34:11,560 --> 00:34:13,360
Speaker 4: that's very much going to play on the minds of

679
00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:15,239
Speaker 4: the players and the minds of the fans. And you know,

680
00:34:15,320 --> 00:34:18,560
Speaker 4: Goodison Park can get like when they're not too happy,

681
00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:20,640
Speaker 4: and I just I wouldn't be surprised if the same

682
00:34:20,680 --> 00:34:24,640
Speaker 4: happens again against the likes of Matete and running out

683
00:34:24,640 --> 00:34:26,640
Speaker 4: for a Palace side, who, by the way, are also

684
00:34:26,719 --> 00:34:30,200
Speaker 4: looking for a spark, also looking for their first win.

685
00:34:30,320 --> 00:34:33,080
Speaker 4: So I see both sides scoring and once the first

686
00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:35,439
Speaker 4: goes in, and I say it a lot, but once

687
00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:37,560
Speaker 4: that first go goes in, I think this could open

688
00:34:37,640 --> 00:34:41,279
Speaker 4: up to be a pretty exciting encounter. So over two

689
00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:44,840
Speaker 4: point five goals at minus one twelve and hopefully for

690
00:34:44,920 --> 00:34:47,720
Speaker 4: Michael's sake, Everton can run out winners.

691
00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:50,759
Speaker 1: Do you see what's happening, Michael. We're starting to start

692
00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:52,800
Speaker 1: to closely push him towards Everton.

693
00:34:53,239 --> 00:34:55,640
Speaker 2: He's getting there's good.

694
00:34:55,719 --> 00:34:58,919
Speaker 1: Five weeks now, but now we're I'm the other side.

695
00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:01,359
Speaker 1: It's like, you know, maybe it's not such a bad

696
00:35:01,400 --> 00:35:02,720
Speaker 1: idea they're playing.

697
00:35:03,160 --> 00:35:04,439
Speaker 2: Maybe it's not they're playing well.

698
00:35:04,520 --> 00:35:06,920
Speaker 3: Once I heard, honestly, it's sent to shiver up my spine.

699
00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:10,359
Speaker 3: Sand when you said they're actually playing well, that's it.

700
00:35:10,520 --> 00:35:13,200
Speaker 4: I know, just just not for twenty minutes. They just

701
00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:14,600
Speaker 4: has an issue in the Premier.

702
00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:17,800
Speaker 1: League that it's an issue about the price here again,

703
00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:21,640
Speaker 1: the market steamed heavily against Everton on Saturday morning. We've

704
00:35:21,640 --> 00:35:23,759
Speaker 1: already seen Palace take a little bit of money here,

705
00:35:24,160 --> 00:35:26,160
Speaker 1: so you could get Everton close to two to one

706
00:35:26,200 --> 00:35:28,680
Speaker 1: by match time. So if that's the case, I will

707
00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:31,520
Speaker 1: take I will take Everton, John no Bett and anything

708
00:35:31,600 --> 00:35:34,200
Speaker 1: plus one h five or better I will definitely do that.

709
00:35:34,400 --> 00:35:36,759
Speaker 1: So just be on the lookout for the price here.

710
00:35:36,800 --> 00:35:39,800
Speaker 1: Brainth way back obviously makes things a little bit better. Okay,

711
00:35:40,280 --> 00:35:44,239
Speaker 1: Forrest and Everton is south of minus two hundred and

712
00:35:44,280 --> 00:35:46,919
Speaker 1: now to stay up, which I love that as well.

713
00:35:46,960 --> 00:35:48,040
Speaker 1: If you didn't get minus two.

714
00:35:47,960 --> 00:35:49,879
Speaker 3: Fifteen and they're eighteen to one for a top half

715
00:35:49,920 --> 00:35:52,000
Speaker 3: finish too, BJ I mean, if we do think same,

716
00:35:52,280 --> 00:35:55,560
Speaker 3: they're playing well, talk about the new ownership yet now

717
00:35:56,000 --> 00:35:58,640
Speaker 3: let's not even get it there. But maybe listen, we've

718
00:35:58,680 --> 00:36:00,680
Speaker 3: been we've been down this path of million times.

719
00:36:00,960 --> 00:36:03,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it's.

720
00:36:03,040 --> 00:36:07,120
Speaker 1: Just yeah, well I saw something that whoever was prospective

721
00:36:07,160 --> 00:36:09,560
Speaker 1: owner maybe wanted jay Z involved. It maybe is not

722
00:36:09,600 --> 00:36:11,719
Speaker 1: as the best thing to do current time.

723
00:36:12,560 --> 00:36:15,640
Speaker 3: That would be jay Z's one hundredth problem getting involved

724
00:36:15,680 --> 00:36:21,799
Speaker 3: with everybody. Forrest and Fulham next. Forrest's plus one forty five,

725
00:36:21,840 --> 00:36:24,920
Speaker 3: Fulham is plus two oh five. The draws plus two

726
00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:27,240
Speaker 3: twenty five. I was very wrong about Fulham. Very impressive

727
00:36:28,120 --> 00:36:30,000
Speaker 3: start the year, and I think both of these teams

728
00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:33,000
Speaker 3: are going about their business in a similar way, and

729
00:36:33,160 --> 00:36:35,480
Speaker 3: I think it's the right way and the very pragmatic

730
00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:39,319
Speaker 3: way when you're in their kind of class. And it's

731
00:36:39,360 --> 00:36:41,000
Speaker 3: sad to say, but it's just the state of the

732
00:36:41,040 --> 00:36:44,040
Speaker 3: Premier League now, Like if you're in that kind of

733
00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:47,160
Speaker 3: I would say, like just above the relegation zone. If

734
00:36:47,160 --> 00:36:50,120
Speaker 3: for in terms of like your preseason projections, you do

735
00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:52,040
Speaker 3: want to just I don't want to say batten down

736
00:36:52,040 --> 00:36:54,560
Speaker 3: the hatches, because that's not giving these two teams enough credit,

737
00:36:54,600 --> 00:36:57,480
Speaker 3: but you want to play a smart, pragmatic game, and

738
00:36:57,480 --> 00:37:00,680
Speaker 3: that's what they're doing. They're doing it really well. You know,

739
00:37:00,800 --> 00:37:02,720
Speaker 3: won't be on the sidelines. I don't think that matters

740
00:37:02,760 --> 00:37:06,040
Speaker 3: all that much. Morgan Gibbs White I believe, is also out,

741
00:37:06,080 --> 00:37:09,960
Speaker 3: so that does matter here. But it's hard not to

742
00:37:09,960 --> 00:37:13,480
Speaker 3: be impressed with both these teams. It really really solid defensively,

743
00:37:13,520 --> 00:37:16,200
Speaker 3: top five I believe the two of them, and expected

744
00:37:16,239 --> 00:37:19,640
Speaker 3: goals allowed to start the year, and it's not like

745
00:37:19,680 --> 00:37:23,279
Speaker 3: the schedules have been all that kind to either one

746
00:37:23,320 --> 00:37:26,400
Speaker 3: of them. So I like the draw here. I think

747
00:37:26,760 --> 00:37:30,640
Speaker 3: it's one where a one to one makes a lot

748
00:37:30,680 --> 00:37:32,759
Speaker 3: of sense and even the nil, the nil nails a

749
00:37:32,760 --> 00:37:35,160
Speaker 3: little short. It's under ten to one in the Premier League.

750
00:37:35,160 --> 00:37:37,600
Speaker 3: I don't really want to do that, but that's where

751
00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:39,040
Speaker 3: I'm looking here. I think I don't think either one

752
00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:41,839
Speaker 3: of these teams is going to put the other one

753
00:37:41,880 --> 00:37:44,799
Speaker 3: away and the draw should be in play for all

754
00:37:44,880 --> 00:37:48,279
Speaker 3: ninety minutes. Sam, So I'll take a draw here at

755
00:37:48,280 --> 00:37:48,960
Speaker 3: the City ground.

756
00:37:49,360 --> 00:37:51,839
Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't hate it, and if you're looking at

757
00:37:51,920 --> 00:37:54,880
Speaker 4: last we can full them out doing Newcastle with relative

758
00:37:54,920 --> 00:37:58,120
Speaker 4: ease at the end. Free one at the College raw

759
00:37:58,239 --> 00:38:01,480
Speaker 4: him and has opened the scoring and looks like he

760
00:38:01,640 --> 00:38:05,880
Speaker 4: might be nearing back to his best. Maybe we saw it,

761
00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:09,400
Speaker 4: maybe maybe not, but yeah, a typical Row him and

762
00:38:09,400 --> 00:38:11,359
Speaker 4: the strap. I think he took it down on his chest,

763
00:38:11,560 --> 00:38:14,560
Speaker 4: kind of close control, swiveled and just smashed it past

764
00:38:14,640 --> 00:38:15,080
Speaker 4: Nick Pope.

765
00:38:15,160 --> 00:38:15,880
Speaker 5: So great go.

766
00:38:16,880 --> 00:38:19,319
Speaker 4: I thought they looked really handy going forward Forham like

767
00:38:19,440 --> 00:38:22,680
Speaker 4: they progress forwards with pace, which they have in abundance.

768
00:38:23,120 --> 00:38:25,960
Speaker 4: Commit bodies into the final. They've got willing runners in

769
00:38:26,080 --> 00:38:28,960
Speaker 4: triore it will be smith. Row now wants to be

770
00:38:29,000 --> 00:38:32,399
Speaker 4: involved in every attack. He's always on his toes, head

771
00:38:32,400 --> 00:38:34,799
Speaker 4: on a swivel. Clearly instructed to get forward and get

772
00:38:34,840 --> 00:38:37,799
Speaker 4: on the ball as often as possible. And actually their

773
00:38:37,880 --> 00:38:42,040
Speaker 4: right hand side too with Kenny, Kenny Tests and Adam

774
00:38:42,040 --> 00:38:44,920
Speaker 4: a Triory like that is that looks good, that's blossoming

775
00:38:45,239 --> 00:38:47,799
Speaker 4: really like tests Ay, he'll get forward once the ball,

776
00:38:48,320 --> 00:38:50,120
Speaker 4: willing to get up the pitch and help try or in.

777
00:38:50,239 --> 00:38:53,360
Speaker 4: I feel Triory probably needs that sometimes, like that option

778
00:38:53,480 --> 00:38:56,759
Speaker 4: for an easy ball rather than him being forced to

779
00:38:56,760 --> 00:38:59,760
Speaker 4: be gung ho, head down and rush things his decision

780
00:38:59,760 --> 00:39:02,400
Speaker 4: making obviously, that's probably an area of his game which

781
00:39:02,520 --> 00:39:05,400
Speaker 4: he will always need to improve on. So Testy that helps.

782
00:39:07,040 --> 00:39:08,759
Speaker 4: But yeah, I said it earlier. They deserve to win

783
00:39:08,800 --> 00:39:13,000
Speaker 4: in the end. I just don't love forrest a way

784
00:39:13,040 --> 00:39:16,600
Speaker 4: for Fulham right now. A team that are improving obviously

785
00:39:16,640 --> 00:39:19,720
Speaker 4: and the new management love playing at the City Ground.

786
00:39:21,040 --> 00:39:21,720
Speaker 5: They're one.

787
00:39:23,880 --> 00:39:27,799
Speaker 4: A forum beating teams in the Premier League after five

788
00:39:27,840 --> 00:39:31,800
Speaker 4: games and they've played Liverpool, Brighton and Bournemouth and three sides.

789
00:39:31,840 --> 00:39:34,440
Speaker 4: We're all quite hot on right now team and form

790
00:39:35,040 --> 00:39:37,680
Speaker 4: a team to be wary of. But you're very much right,

791
00:39:37,800 --> 00:39:40,920
Speaker 4: Michael Morgan. Gibs White. It's suspended and that is a

792
00:39:40,920 --> 00:39:43,359
Speaker 4: big miss. And by the way, I don't know if

793
00:39:43,400 --> 00:39:46,239
Speaker 4: you can remember his tackle, and I'm just devastated that's

794
00:39:46,320 --> 00:39:49,080
Speaker 4: lost from the game now. Like he goes through the man,

795
00:39:49,600 --> 00:39:53,560
Speaker 4: I know, but he wins the ball and everyone you

796
00:39:53,640 --> 00:39:55,520
Speaker 4: ask now will tell you that's a yellow card. And

797
00:39:55,560 --> 00:39:58,280
Speaker 4: that's just devastating to me because I absolutely love people

798
00:39:58,440 --> 00:40:02,120
Speaker 4: nalen the opposition and getting both man and ball mangoes

799
00:40:02,160 --> 00:40:05,000
Speaker 4: flying in the air and ref waves play on. Are

800
00:40:05,040 --> 00:40:06,120
Speaker 4: just never going to get that now.

801
00:40:06,200 --> 00:40:07,040
Speaker 2: So Jame's gone.

802
00:40:07,920 --> 00:40:11,560
Speaker 4: James gone, So that's unfortunate for our sport on a

803
00:40:11,640 --> 00:40:17,879
Speaker 4: general level. But yeah, anyway, he's out. But saying that

804
00:40:18,040 --> 00:40:22,600
Speaker 4: it appears the likes of Elliot Anderson, Roman Sosa, I

805
00:40:22,640 --> 00:40:26,239
Speaker 4: think it is jotta silver. They've just seamlessly slotted into

806
00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:28,520
Speaker 4: this forest side with minimal fuss, and after all the

807
00:40:28,600 --> 00:40:32,239
Speaker 4: incomings and outgoings at forest since promotion, I think that's

808
00:40:32,239 --> 00:40:35,840
Speaker 4: a real positive to see that happening now, players adding

809
00:40:35,880 --> 00:40:38,960
Speaker 4: to the group on the pictu rather than adding headaches

810
00:40:39,000 --> 00:40:42,319
Speaker 4: off it and adding to a bloated squad. So this

811
00:40:42,360 --> 00:40:45,239
Speaker 4: is a little bit cowardly, but forrest on the zero

812
00:40:45,239 --> 00:40:48,840
Speaker 4: point zero aging handicapped drawn no bet effectively is minus

813
00:40:48,880 --> 00:40:52,359
Speaker 4: one four three very skinny props, shortest price I've put

814
00:40:52,440 --> 00:40:54,520
Speaker 4: up on this podcast, but I think there's still value

815
00:40:54,560 --> 00:40:57,799
Speaker 4: there and it could also work as a great like

816
00:40:57,920 --> 00:41:00,799
Speaker 4: Premier League parley fodder if if you look in for

817
00:41:00,840 --> 00:41:02,320
Speaker 4: a few selections, tell them together.

818
00:41:02,400 --> 00:41:03,160
Speaker 5: So I'll like that.

819
00:41:03,760 --> 00:41:05,960
Speaker 3: Don't worry about that price. Just wait till bj starts

820
00:41:06,080 --> 00:41:10,880
Speaker 3: throwing up you know, no it minus won sixties.

821
00:41:11,320 --> 00:41:13,520
Speaker 1: No, we'll get to minus one. Some bolt teams to

822
00:41:13,520 --> 00:41:15,400
Speaker 1: score no. Minus one seventy five in Spain.

823
00:41:15,880 --> 00:41:17,239
Speaker 5: Well we'll get there evented four.

824
00:41:18,840 --> 00:41:21,200
Speaker 1: I've done that before in this podcast and I got ridicule.

825
00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:25,480
Speaker 1: But the bet one by the way. But yeah, you know,

826
00:41:25,600 --> 00:41:27,600
Speaker 1: I think the price has gone little too far ahead

827
00:41:27,600 --> 00:41:31,120
Speaker 1: on Nottingham Forest so before this match, and obviously lots

828
00:41:31,160 --> 00:41:33,319
Speaker 1: of a lot of has happened since then Fulham, you know,

829
00:41:33,400 --> 00:41:36,239
Speaker 1: House to Newcastle and then Nottingam Forst loses Morgan Gibs White.

830
00:41:36,280 --> 00:41:38,080
Speaker 1: But we've gone from plus one ten to plus one

831
00:41:38,160 --> 00:41:41,920
Speaker 1: forty here. I'm not so sure that that's warranted. I'm

832
00:41:41,960 --> 00:41:44,960
Speaker 1: not so sure Morgan Gibbs White is worth twenty to

833
00:41:45,000 --> 00:41:47,680
Speaker 1: thirty cents to the line. And the reason for that

834
00:41:47,840 --> 00:41:51,080
Speaker 1: is is because Nottingham Forrest just spent big money on

835
00:41:51,120 --> 00:41:54,000
Speaker 1: Elliott Anderson from Newcastle. Like I know he's a natural

836
00:41:54,080 --> 00:41:55,960
Speaker 1: number eight, but he's somebody who can step into that

837
00:41:56,040 --> 00:41:59,120
Speaker 1: number ten role and provide not near the level of

838
00:41:59,200 --> 00:42:02,040
Speaker 1: production of Morgan Gibbs White, but not have it be

839
00:42:02,160 --> 00:42:04,359
Speaker 1: like they don't have anybody else who can do that, right,

840
00:42:04,440 --> 00:42:06,000
Speaker 1: Like he is able to be able to do that.

841
00:42:06,560 --> 00:42:08,719
Speaker 1: Like Sam said, they have so many options on the wing,

842
00:42:08,840 --> 00:42:10,560
Speaker 1: Like you know the two guys they started against bright

843
00:42:10,600 --> 00:42:14,320
Speaker 1: and well they can also start Alanga and Hudson Adoy

844
00:42:14,440 --> 00:42:16,920
Speaker 1: and they can really cause a lot of problems. But

845
00:42:16,960 --> 00:42:20,040
Speaker 1: the biggest thing for me in this match is can

846
00:42:20,880 --> 00:42:25,200
Speaker 1: not eam Forrest attack Fulham through the middle because if

847
00:42:25,239 --> 00:42:27,600
Speaker 1: you do that, you're gonna have a lot of success.

848
00:42:27,719 --> 00:42:29,920
Speaker 1: They don't have any ball stopping in the middle, especially

849
00:42:29,920 --> 00:42:32,120
Speaker 1: when you're getting at them in transition. And the other

850
00:42:32,160 --> 00:42:35,000
Speaker 1: thing about Fulham is you have to remember this. They

851
00:42:35,000 --> 00:42:38,600
Speaker 1: can look really good at home. They are awful away

852
00:42:38,640 --> 00:42:41,040
Speaker 1: from Craven Cottage. Last season they had a minus twelve

853
00:42:41,080 --> 00:42:44,160
Speaker 1: expected old differential wave from there and they consistently this season.

854
00:42:44,400 --> 00:42:46,640
Speaker 1: They've played two matches away from there. They had a

855
00:42:46,680 --> 00:42:49,560
Speaker 1: pretty putrid performance against United to open the season and

856
00:42:49,600 --> 00:42:52,880
Speaker 1: then they drew Ipswich in a match that really nothing

857
00:42:52,920 --> 00:42:57,080
Speaker 1: really happens. So I like Forest, I have them with

858
00:42:57,120 --> 00:42:59,239
Speaker 1: al Morgan, Gibbs White, I have them projected closer to

859
00:42:59,280 --> 00:43:03,080
Speaker 1: plus one fifteen. So like Sam said, you know, John

860
00:43:03,120 --> 00:43:05,480
Speaker 1: o Bett minus one forty three is a little steep

861
00:43:05,560 --> 00:43:08,560
Speaker 1: right now, but let's just wait until we get closer

862
00:43:08,600 --> 00:43:10,359
Speaker 1: to match time and maybe we can get a better

863
00:43:10,400 --> 00:43:11,080
Speaker 1: price on them.

864
00:43:11,160 --> 00:43:15,080
Speaker 3: Forced the tricky trees. So up next for us as

865
00:43:15,160 --> 00:43:17,680
Speaker 3: Wolves and Liverpool this one at the Mole and you

866
00:43:17,960 --> 00:43:21,800
Speaker 3: Wolves plus six fifty at home, Liverpool minus two seventy five,

867
00:43:22,200 --> 00:43:25,520
Speaker 3: the draws plus four fifty. The Reds have course corrected

868
00:43:25,520 --> 00:43:28,120
Speaker 3: after that lost to force a couple of weeks back

869
00:43:28,480 --> 00:43:31,399
Speaker 3: showing in the Champions League, then a big win over

870
00:43:31,400 --> 00:43:35,520
Speaker 3: the weekend in the Premier League as well. Nothing really

871
00:43:35,840 --> 00:43:37,200
Speaker 3: interesting here for me at all.

872
00:43:37,600 --> 00:43:38,240
Speaker 5: I don't think.

873
00:43:38,880 --> 00:43:42,120
Speaker 3: I do think Wolves start to trend in the right

874
00:43:42,160 --> 00:43:45,440
Speaker 3: direction at some point. I just don't think that you

875
00:43:45,520 --> 00:43:48,120
Speaker 3: want to do it here, Sam, So you're the only

876
00:43:48,160 --> 00:43:51,120
Speaker 3: one of us with any sort of lean in this match,

877
00:43:51,160 --> 00:43:52,200
Speaker 3: so floor is yours.

878
00:43:52,680 --> 00:43:57,719
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm somewhat interested. You've got a Liverpool frontline where

879
00:43:58,120 --> 00:44:00,719
Speaker 4: the Os on the weekend was a real standout. Looked

880
00:44:00,760 --> 00:44:04,880
Speaker 4: really good. Darwin nuna Is his first start under Arnie

881
00:44:04,880 --> 00:44:08,399
Speaker 4: Slot scored with a brilliant curling effort and he had

882
00:44:08,560 --> 00:44:12,399
Speaker 4: Alexis McAllister in behind, so comfortable in possession. Really really

883
00:44:12,480 --> 00:44:14,640
Speaker 4: impressed me always does under pressure.

884
00:44:15,160 --> 00:44:15,759
Speaker 5: Doesn't matter.

885
00:44:15,800 --> 00:44:18,319
Speaker 4: It turns on a sixpence and a couple of really

886
00:44:18,320 --> 00:44:22,040
Speaker 4: impressive defensive splitting passes on show to boot and there

887
00:44:22,080 --> 00:44:24,719
Speaker 4: was one way to bollied it into Sala's path and

888
00:44:24,760 --> 00:44:27,920
Speaker 4: then Salah went through on goal and it was saved.

889
00:44:27,960 --> 00:44:31,719
Speaker 4: But yeah, brilliant regardless. Wolves, on the other hand, vacated

890
00:44:31,760 --> 00:44:34,880
Speaker 4: their weekend fixture with a three to one loss and

891
00:44:34,920 --> 00:44:37,480
Speaker 4: the unwanted position of being bottom of the Premier League

892
00:44:37,520 --> 00:44:39,920
Speaker 4: without a win, so they took a lead versus Villa

893
00:44:40,360 --> 00:44:43,160
Speaker 4: were unlucky not to go to new up in the

894
00:44:43,200 --> 00:44:46,319
Speaker 4: first half, so it could have ended very differently for

895
00:44:46,400 --> 00:44:48,719
Speaker 4: Gary O Newan Wolves, who faced the Villa team that

896
00:44:48,840 --> 00:44:54,560
Speaker 4: looked labored from international duties both domestically and internationally. But

897
00:44:54,640 --> 00:44:57,240
Speaker 4: we didn't see one shot from Wolves in the second

898
00:44:57,239 --> 00:45:00,600
Speaker 4: half like that is not good enough. They played six

899
00:45:00,640 --> 00:45:03,600
Speaker 4: of the Premier league's top eight now, so we need

900
00:45:03,640 --> 00:45:06,520
Speaker 4: to be mindful. Well, this will be six of the

901
00:45:06,560 --> 00:45:08,680
Speaker 4: Premier League's top eight, so we need to be mindful

902
00:45:08,680 --> 00:45:12,759
Speaker 4: about that. I think it's probably the hardest stretch of

903
00:45:12,840 --> 00:45:16,120
Speaker 4: opening games to this point difficulty wise in the division.

904
00:45:16,200 --> 00:45:18,759
Speaker 4: So yes they are bottom, but it's been tough for

905
00:45:18,800 --> 00:45:21,239
Speaker 4: them and now it's time for Liverpool at home.

906
00:45:21,400 --> 00:45:22,200
Speaker 5: So not ideal.

907
00:45:22,280 --> 00:45:26,279
Speaker 4: Liverpool on a minus one point five Asian line. Yeah,

908
00:45:26,440 --> 00:45:28,759
Speaker 4: it's okay, it doesn't look I'm not thrilled with it.

909
00:45:28,800 --> 00:45:31,160
Speaker 4: Go line at three point twenty five. Don't really fancy

910
00:45:31,200 --> 00:45:34,200
Speaker 4: that either. But if you think Liverpool control the game

911
00:45:34,640 --> 00:45:36,800
Speaker 4: and get this over a line in like a business

912
00:45:36,920 --> 00:45:40,520
Speaker 4: like fashion, then and you would be well within your

913
00:45:40,600 --> 00:45:43,240
Speaker 4: rights to do so, because over the last fifteen meetings

914
00:45:43,239 --> 00:45:48,800
Speaker 4: in the Premier League, Liverpool have beaten Wolves with under

915
00:45:49,040 --> 00:45:53,240
Speaker 4: four point five goals, cashing on fourteen or fifteen occasions,

916
00:45:53,840 --> 00:45:57,160
Speaker 4: so that's pretty remarkable. Like Liverpool have a stranglehold on

917
00:45:57,160 --> 00:46:00,600
Speaker 4: this fixture. You can get that minus one sixteen on

918
00:46:00,640 --> 00:46:04,239
Speaker 4: bat three sixty five. The concern here is obviously just

919
00:46:04,280 --> 00:46:06,080
Speaker 4: the sheer amount of minutes in their legs of these

920
00:46:06,080 --> 00:46:09,399
Speaker 4: Liverpool lodds it's a bit too much, keep going over it.

921
00:46:10,280 --> 00:46:12,840
Speaker 4: But that also feeds into the thinking that they won't

922
00:46:12,840 --> 00:46:15,040
Speaker 4: want this to be a back and forth and they

923
00:46:15,400 --> 00:46:18,040
Speaker 4: probably won't keep gunning for Wolves if they're ahead in

924
00:46:18,080 --> 00:46:21,160
Speaker 4: the game. So Liverpool and under four point five goals

925
00:46:21,320 --> 00:46:23,839
Speaker 4: is happening in the last fourteen out of fifteen head

926
00:46:23,840 --> 00:46:26,319
Speaker 4: to heads on this one sixteen.

927
00:46:26,719 --> 00:46:30,880
Speaker 3: Okay, Ipswich and Villa up next this one at Ipswich.

928
00:46:31,360 --> 00:46:34,160
Speaker 3: They are plus three ten Villa odds on minus one

929
00:46:34,200 --> 00:46:36,279
Speaker 3: twenty on the road the draws plus two sixty five.

930
00:46:36,719 --> 00:46:39,759
Speaker 3: I think this thing can develop into a bit of

931
00:46:40,680 --> 00:46:43,000
Speaker 3: a back and forth the CISA shootout, however.

932
00:46:42,800 --> 00:46:44,919
Speaker 2: You want to say it. Lots of goals. I think

933
00:46:44,960 --> 00:46:46,000
Speaker 2: most of them come from Villa.

934
00:46:46,080 --> 00:46:48,279
Speaker 3: I don't think that the minus one twenty is a

935
00:46:48,280 --> 00:46:50,839
Speaker 3: bad price to lump into a parlay, even on the road.

936
00:46:51,520 --> 00:46:52,880
Speaker 3: So that's what we're gonna do. They're gonna be the

937
00:46:52,880 --> 00:46:55,680
Speaker 3: first leg of a parlay that I'll wrap up with

938
00:46:55,719 --> 00:46:58,640
Speaker 3: our next and last match. We'll talk about. So I

939
00:46:58,719 --> 00:47:02,840
Speaker 3: like Villa here. I think God as well. BJ What

940
00:47:02,920 --> 00:47:06,640
Speaker 3: do you think here between Aston, Villa and Ipswich Town.

941
00:47:07,000 --> 00:47:09,080
Speaker 1: I think if switch is by far and away the

942
00:47:09,120 --> 00:47:10,839
Speaker 1: worst team in the Premier League, and it's really not

943
00:47:10,880 --> 00:47:14,880
Speaker 1: even close right now. There's a lot of people that

944
00:47:15,000 --> 00:47:17,760
Speaker 1: say that Pep has ruined the game. I'm one of them,

945
00:47:18,560 --> 00:47:21,080
Speaker 1: and you can see it in the Zipswich side. The

946
00:47:21,160 --> 00:47:25,040
Speaker 1: reason for that is they are controlling thirty seven percent

947
00:47:25,040 --> 00:47:27,560
Speaker 1: of the ball right now and they are still trying

948
00:47:27,600 --> 00:47:30,239
Speaker 1: to build out of the back. You cannot do that

949
00:47:30,280 --> 00:47:32,680
Speaker 1: when you're holding thirty five to seven percent of the ball.

950
00:47:32,920 --> 00:47:34,920
Speaker 1: You have to play in transition and you have to

951
00:47:34,920 --> 00:47:38,120
Speaker 1: try to counterattack teams. And you see it. They've only

952
00:47:38,160 --> 00:47:41,200
Speaker 1: created three point two expected goals in five matches, half

953
00:47:41,280 --> 00:47:44,000
Speaker 1: of that team against Southampton. They've done nothing against the

954
00:47:44,040 --> 00:47:48,040
Speaker 1: good teams. The other problem is they're not, you know,

955
00:47:48,120 --> 00:47:50,360
Speaker 1: obviously trying to build out of the back against you know,

956
00:47:50,400 --> 00:47:52,799
Speaker 1: good defensive teams. They haven't been able to do any

957
00:47:52,840 --> 00:47:55,880
Speaker 1: of that. They are averaging six point one box entries

958
00:47:55,880 --> 00:47:59,920
Speaker 1: per ninety minutes. For context, last season, Sheffield United, who's

959
00:48:00,040 --> 00:48:01,640
Speaker 1: categoric that you've been one of the worst Premier League

960
00:48:01,640 --> 00:48:03,759
Speaker 1: teams we've ever seen, average eight point five. So if

961
00:48:03,800 --> 00:48:06,040
Speaker 1: things continue the way that they are, if Swich is

962
00:48:06,040 --> 00:48:07,759
Speaker 1: going to go down as the worst offensive team that

963
00:48:07,800 --> 00:48:09,759
Speaker 1: maybe we've ever seen in the Premier League. I don't

964
00:48:09,760 --> 00:48:11,120
Speaker 1: think they have the talent to be able to keep

965
00:48:11,200 --> 00:48:14,120
Speaker 1: up here with aston Villa. The other big problem is

966
00:48:14,120 --> 00:48:16,160
Speaker 1: is that when you try to build out of the back,

967
00:48:16,880 --> 00:48:19,040
Speaker 1: they're just turning the ball over at an alarming rate.

968
00:48:19,239 --> 00:48:24,240
Speaker 1: You know, great resource for some stats is mark Stats.

969
00:48:24,280 --> 00:48:26,960
Speaker 1: You know, you just updated his site this week and

970
00:48:27,040 --> 00:48:31,320
Speaker 1: one of the stats he included was dangerous possession lost

971
00:48:31,360 --> 00:48:32,719
Speaker 1: in your own final third, which I think is a

972
00:48:32,760 --> 00:48:34,960
Speaker 1: great stat essentially how many times you know turning it

973
00:48:35,000 --> 00:48:37,480
Speaker 1: over high? And if switch has turned the ball over

974
00:48:37,520 --> 00:48:39,480
Speaker 1: high at the third highest rate of anybody in the

975
00:48:39,480 --> 00:48:41,840
Speaker 1: Premier League and they're only holding thirty seven percent of

976
00:48:41,880 --> 00:48:45,960
Speaker 1: the ball, that is incredibly concerning. The other aspect is

977
00:48:46,000 --> 00:48:48,880
Speaker 1: how bad they have been defensively. I mean, they just

978
00:48:48,920 --> 00:48:52,000
Speaker 1: conceded four big scoring chances in two point four expectacles

979
00:48:52,040 --> 00:48:55,640
Speaker 1: to Southampton of all teams, Like, what do you think?

980
00:48:55,760 --> 00:48:57,400
Speaker 1: What do you think aston Villa is going to do?

981
00:48:57,800 --> 00:49:00,640
Speaker 1: The only justification that you can make for this price

982
00:49:01,239 --> 00:49:03,800
Speaker 1: is that it's a terrible spot for aston Villa because

983
00:49:03,800 --> 00:49:06,040
Speaker 1: they have Bayern Munich coming to their place in the

984
00:49:06,120 --> 00:49:09,000
Speaker 1: Champions League that's the only argument you can make because

985
00:49:09,040 --> 00:49:11,640
Speaker 1: Ipswitch has categorically been the worst team in the Premier

986
00:49:11,719 --> 00:49:15,400
Speaker 1: League and they cannot hang with these good teams. Their

987
00:49:15,880 --> 00:49:18,800
Speaker 1: defensive setup there four two four mid block or whatever

988
00:49:18,800 --> 00:49:21,080
Speaker 1: it is, it looks just as bad as West Ham.

989
00:49:21,280 --> 00:49:23,920
Speaker 1: Teams just play through the middle all the time against them.

990
00:49:24,000 --> 00:49:25,880
Speaker 1: So what do you think aston Villa is gonna do?

991
00:49:26,200 --> 00:49:26,279
Speaker 5: So?

992
00:49:26,360 --> 00:49:29,479
Speaker 1: I think that this price is really short. Aston Villa

993
00:49:29,560 --> 00:49:34,320
Speaker 1: this summer made a conscious effort to bring in depth pieces.

994
00:49:34,480 --> 00:49:37,000
Speaker 1: So even if they want to rotate their squad and

995
00:49:37,040 --> 00:49:41,680
Speaker 1: start Ross Barkley and Johann Duran like, there's still gonna

996
00:49:41,719 --> 00:49:43,880
Speaker 1: be a very good team. So I think this price

997
00:49:43,960 --> 00:49:46,720
Speaker 1: is way too short. I love aston Villa at minus

998
00:49:46,719 --> 00:49:48,479
Speaker 1: one twenty. I think they should be closer to minus

999
00:49:48,520 --> 00:49:50,560
Speaker 1: one sixty five minus one seventy.

1000
00:49:51,360 --> 00:49:55,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm with you, Sam anything here and Villa and

1001
00:49:55,160 --> 00:49:56,480
Speaker 3: ipswich more of.

1002
00:49:56,480 --> 00:50:00,400
Speaker 4: A lean than anything, Michael. On the weekend, John Duran

1003
00:50:00,560 --> 00:50:05,040
Speaker 4: came on and lit a flame out Villa Park. And

1004
00:50:05,080 --> 00:50:06,719
Speaker 4: when he come on and they got the first goal,

1005
00:50:06,800 --> 00:50:11,680
Speaker 4: the eventual scoreline almost felt inevitable, as did him getting

1006
00:50:11,680 --> 00:50:14,640
Speaker 4: on the score sheet. He hasn't started a game yet

1007
00:50:15,000 --> 00:50:17,360
Speaker 4: averaging twenty six minutes per night in the Premier League,

1008
00:50:17,400 --> 00:50:19,359
Speaker 4: and I'm just wondering if they can find a way

1009
00:50:19,400 --> 00:50:22,520
Speaker 4: to shoe horn him into the team. But if they can't,

1010
00:50:22,719 --> 00:50:24,680
Speaker 4: I feel that's fine. And the reason I bring this

1011
00:50:24,760 --> 00:50:28,000
Speaker 4: up because I feel that the depth in the latter

1012
00:50:28,040 --> 00:50:30,880
Speaker 4: stages of this game, Villa's depth will really hurt it.

1013
00:50:30,960 --> 00:50:34,279
Speaker 4: Swich Wolves couldn't cope. As bj said, I can't see

1014
00:50:34,320 --> 00:50:37,399
Speaker 4: Ipswich coping. I think Villa end up getting the win,

1015
00:50:37,520 --> 00:50:40,040
Speaker 4: but Villa will be jaded. It's not a good spot

1016
00:50:40,080 --> 00:50:43,279
Speaker 4: for them. They've they're now playing Champions League football. They've

1017
00:50:43,480 --> 00:50:45,120
Speaker 4: you know, a lot of minute in the legs. I

1018
00:50:45,239 --> 00:50:49,919
Speaker 4: keep repeating myself almost every game Ipswich arrested. They were

1019
00:50:50,040 --> 00:50:53,200
Speaker 4: very fortunate to get a last minute equalizer at Saint Mary's,

1020
00:50:53,200 --> 00:50:57,440
Speaker 4: which Russell Martin will be devastated by. The perfect deflection

1021
00:50:58,719 --> 00:51:00,960
Speaker 4: kind of curled into the post, did stamp in like

1022
00:51:01,040 --> 00:51:06,000
Speaker 4: slow motion. Horrible to concede. Ipswich conceded two point four

1023
00:51:06,080 --> 00:51:09,680
Speaker 4: nine x g away in Southampton. So if you're tuning

1024
00:51:09,719 --> 00:51:12,200
Speaker 4: into your first piece of Premier League content this season

1025
00:51:12,239 --> 00:51:14,520
Speaker 4: on the pod, then let me tell you that is

1026
00:51:14,560 --> 00:51:17,080
Speaker 4: not good, but they did stump up one point six

1027
00:51:17,080 --> 00:51:19,680
Speaker 4: to nine xt G themselves, so probably should have seen

1028
00:51:19,719 --> 00:51:22,160
Speaker 4: a few more goals than the one one we got.

1029
00:51:22,880 --> 00:51:26,040
Speaker 4: I think Aston Villa win. I think there are goals

1030
00:51:26,040 --> 00:51:29,440
Speaker 4: in the game, but I do think Ipswich have enough

1031
00:51:29,600 --> 00:51:32,239
Speaker 4: to score at home against this Villa side. So you

1032
00:51:32,280 --> 00:51:34,799
Speaker 4: can take Aston Villa and both team to score a

1033
00:51:34,840 --> 00:51:37,359
Speaker 4: bit of a bigger price of plus one seventy five.

1034
00:51:38,160 --> 00:51:38,279
Speaker 1: Right.

1035
00:51:38,520 --> 00:51:41,719
Speaker 3: We'll wrap up the Premier League with Bournemouth and Southampton

1036
00:51:41,760 --> 00:51:44,920
Speaker 3: and South Coast Derby with Bournemuth as minus one fifty

1037
00:51:44,960 --> 00:51:47,640
Speaker 3: five favorites at plus three ninety on the road the

1038
00:51:47,719 --> 00:51:52,040
Speaker 3: drafts plus three twenty. I do think that Bournemouth should

1039
00:51:52,040 --> 00:51:53,960
Speaker 3: have their way here, maybe be able to name it

1040
00:51:54,880 --> 00:51:58,719
Speaker 3: against Southampton, so I like them as a leg of

1041
00:51:58,719 --> 00:52:00,960
Speaker 3: a parlay with Villa is up just better than two

1042
00:52:01,000 --> 00:52:04,120
Speaker 3: to one. So I do you think those both these

1043
00:52:04,160 --> 00:52:06,839
Speaker 3: teams take care of business? Pretty matter of factly? This

1044
00:52:06,880 --> 00:52:09,640
Speaker 3: is a Monday night football game, so does feel like

1045
00:52:09,680 --> 00:52:13,600
Speaker 3: the Premier League has been skinnt on giving us Monday

1046
00:52:13,680 --> 00:52:17,080
Speaker 3: nights and uh yeah, Friday afternoon kicks.

1047
00:52:17,120 --> 00:52:18,200
Speaker 2: But here's one for.

1048
00:52:18,200 --> 00:52:18,680
Speaker 1: Us much.

1049
00:52:20,360 --> 00:52:20,879
Speaker 5: Three of us?

1050
00:52:21,600 --> 00:52:23,360
Speaker 1: Yeah too much? Yeah? It's just too much soccer.

1051
00:52:24,000 --> 00:52:27,120
Speaker 3: I don't disagree, but all three of us are looking

1052
00:52:27,160 --> 00:52:31,080
Speaker 3: to just start our work week off with a play

1053
00:52:31,160 --> 00:52:33,920
Speaker 3: on on born myth here BJ so you're also on

1054
00:52:33,960 --> 00:52:34,719
Speaker 3: the Cherries.

1055
00:52:34,760 --> 00:52:37,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean about as good of a match. But

1056
00:52:37,520 --> 00:52:39,520
Speaker 1: as you can ask for if you're if you're born

1057
00:52:39,600 --> 00:52:41,879
Speaker 1: with right, they're the best pressing team in the Premier

1058
00:52:41,960 --> 00:52:43,800
Speaker 1: League right now. They're forcing the most high turnovers and

1059
00:52:44,040 --> 00:52:46,200
Speaker 1: they have a really low pass per defensive action like

1060
00:52:46,880 --> 00:52:48,839
Speaker 1: and now they're going to face Southampton team that by

1061
00:52:48,880 --> 00:52:51,920
Speaker 1: the way, I mean Southampton, they're controlling like almost sixty

1062
00:52:51,920 --> 00:52:56,879
Speaker 1: percent of the ball. Like their offensive numbers against bad

1063
00:52:56,920 --> 00:53:02,800
Speaker 1: defensive teams have been okay, but again like trying to

1064
00:53:02,840 --> 00:53:04,680
Speaker 1: build up through Bournemouth press, I mean, this is just

1065
00:53:04,719 --> 00:53:08,000
Speaker 1: an absolute recipe for disaster. Now as far as the

1066
00:53:08,040 --> 00:53:11,600
Speaker 1: price is concerned, this is pretty high for Bournemouth. For

1067
00:53:11,760 --> 00:53:13,839
Speaker 1: just being honest here right, I would love to get well,

1068
00:53:13,880 --> 00:53:15,200
Speaker 1: you know, I would love to have born with more

1069
00:53:15,239 --> 00:53:19,239
Speaker 1: around minus one thirty five minus one thirty ish. So

1070
00:53:19,280 --> 00:53:22,120
Speaker 1: I would play smalts on Bournemouth because I think that

1071
00:53:22,200 --> 00:53:25,680
Speaker 1: the opportunity they have here with how many times I

1072
00:53:25,719 --> 00:53:28,200
Speaker 1: believe that they're going to turn Southampton over and create

1073
00:53:28,239 --> 00:53:32,239
Speaker 1: those easy transition opportunities. I think that they could win

1074
00:53:32,280 --> 00:53:34,640
Speaker 1: this thing by two, three, maybe even four goals. I

1075
00:53:34,640 --> 00:53:37,239
Speaker 1: think this could just get completely out of hand for

1076
00:53:37,280 --> 00:53:41,480
Speaker 1: Southampton because they're they're not going to change under Russell Martin.

1077
00:53:41,600 --> 00:53:43,560
Speaker 1: Like he's still going to have them building out of

1078
00:53:43,600 --> 00:53:45,560
Speaker 1: the back and trying to play short passes, which is

1079
00:53:46,440 --> 00:53:49,200
Speaker 1: i'll say the death sentence when you're facing Bournemouth. I mean,

1080
00:53:49,239 --> 00:53:51,120
Speaker 1: you just you just watched. I know they didn't have

1081
00:53:51,120 --> 00:53:53,560
Speaker 1: a good performance against Liverpool. For the match before that,

1082
00:53:53,880 --> 00:53:56,120
Speaker 1: Chelsea came to Bournemouth and tried to do that and

1083
00:53:56,160 --> 00:53:59,560
Speaker 1: they weren't able to really do anything, and Bournemouth created

1084
00:53:59,600 --> 00:54:01,960
Speaker 1: a lot of easy transition opportunities off of it. So

1085
00:54:03,360 --> 00:54:06,080
Speaker 1: one miss. Obviously, I've been really good at home ever

1086
00:54:06,120 --> 00:54:09,600
Speaker 1: since Ariola took over as well, so this is a

1087
00:54:09,600 --> 00:54:11,440
Speaker 1: really good spot for Borman. So I like the minus

1088
00:54:11,480 --> 00:54:13,560
Speaker 1: one around plus one twenty.

1089
00:54:14,200 --> 00:54:17,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, apologies if I just kind of rinse and repeat

1090
00:54:17,920 --> 00:54:21,240
Speaker 4: what bj said word for word and they were inches

1091
00:54:21,440 --> 00:54:24,080
Speaker 4: from opening the score in at Amfield, Yeah, from I

1092
00:54:24,120 --> 00:54:28,759
Speaker 4: think it was some menu chasing kellerher down, which might

1093
00:54:28,800 --> 00:54:30,359
Speaker 4: give us a bit of an inkling of what we're

1094
00:54:30,360 --> 00:54:33,800
Speaker 4: going to see on the weekend. Boemost took nineteen shots

1095
00:54:33,800 --> 00:54:37,279
Speaker 4: at Amfield Mustard over one point zero x g. They

1096
00:54:37,320 --> 00:54:40,279
Speaker 4: deserve to lose, but they gave a really, really good

1097
00:54:40,280 --> 00:54:44,000
Speaker 4: account of themselves. They are used to performing well and

1098
00:54:44,040 --> 00:54:48,879
Speaker 4: creating chances against Premier League opposition, Southampton or not. They

1099
00:54:49,160 --> 00:54:52,160
Speaker 4: did so against Ipswich on the weekend nearly two point

1100
00:54:52,200 --> 00:54:55,000
Speaker 4: five xg. But the jury is out whether Ipswich are

1101
00:54:55,000 --> 00:54:58,560
Speaker 4: at a level of a genuine Premier League level opposition.

1102
00:54:59,480 --> 00:55:01,879
Speaker 4: This should lay out in front of us on Monday night,

1103
00:55:02,440 --> 00:55:05,319
Speaker 4: but all afternoon if you're in the US, and I'm

1104
00:55:05,360 --> 00:55:07,960
Speaker 4: not sure whether Southampton will be able to cope with

1105
00:55:08,000 --> 00:55:10,359
Speaker 4: what Bournemouth will throw at them and forward areas. Their

1106
00:55:10,360 --> 00:55:14,480
Speaker 4: press is aggressive, it's targeted, and it makes life hell

1107
00:55:14,560 --> 00:55:16,520
Speaker 4: for even the best Premier League sides. We saw that

1108
00:55:16,560 --> 00:55:20,600
Speaker 4: at Anfield on occasion which they nearly profited from and

1109
00:55:20,640 --> 00:55:23,080
Speaker 4: it's going to sound like we're banging the same drune

1110
00:55:23,080 --> 00:55:24,320
Speaker 4: when it comes to Southampton.

1111
00:55:24,360 --> 00:55:24,760
Speaker 5: The approach.

1112
00:55:24,800 --> 00:55:26,640
Speaker 4: We've said it a few times now, but if the

1113
00:55:26,719 --> 00:55:29,000
Speaker 4: aim here is to build from the back, knock the

1114
00:55:29,040 --> 00:55:32,000
Speaker 4: ball around, attempt to find a man in space to

1115
00:55:32,160 --> 00:55:36,200
Speaker 4: exploit and then break the press to progress against this

1116
00:55:36,320 --> 00:55:39,040
Speaker 4: Bournemouth side. That would really concern me if I was

1117
00:55:39,080 --> 00:55:41,799
Speaker 4: a Southampton fan, and it should concern Russell Martin. But

1118
00:55:42,520 --> 00:55:45,560
Speaker 4: he's not going to change tacts. He hasn't to this point,

1119
00:55:45,680 --> 00:55:48,200
Speaker 4: so so why would he now? And I can see

1120
00:55:48,200 --> 00:55:50,960
Speaker 4: the home side here getting as close to their opponent's

1121
00:55:51,000 --> 00:55:55,040
Speaker 4: goal as possible, running se Menuo, Ivin, Nielsen, Cliver whoever

1122
00:55:55,120 --> 00:55:57,840
Speaker 4: else into the ground with the aim of work in

1123
00:55:57,880 --> 00:56:01,200
Speaker 4: the back line and not allowing a moment piece for Southampton,

1124
00:56:01,360 --> 00:56:05,440
Speaker 4: picking pockets and ultimately punishing Southampton. So in front of me,

1125
00:56:05,480 --> 00:56:08,960
Speaker 4: I've got booms zero point seventy five Asian handicapped up

1126
00:56:09,480 --> 00:56:11,240
Speaker 4: minus one two to two.

1127
00:56:11,520 --> 00:56:12,880
Speaker 5: I think that's a pretty good price.

1128
00:56:14,960 --> 00:56:17,920
Speaker 3: Okay, So all three of us on the Cherries in

1129
00:56:17,960 --> 00:56:22,920
Speaker 3: that rivalry matchup, bjay a quick run through Europe and

1130
00:56:22,920 --> 00:56:26,200
Speaker 3: then we'll get into some championship before doing our underdog

1131
00:56:26,239 --> 00:56:27,719
Speaker 3: parlay and our favorite bets for the week.

1132
00:56:28,000 --> 00:56:32,360
Speaker 1: Yep, real quick uh Friday afternoon in the Bundesliga Dortmund Bocum.

1133
00:56:32,400 --> 00:56:35,880
Speaker 1: Both teams score minus one fifty. Dortman's doing some a

1134
00:56:35,880 --> 00:56:38,239
Speaker 1: little bit different stuff under Nuri Saheen, they're doing a

1135
00:56:38,280 --> 00:56:40,319
Speaker 1: lot of different build up structures. The last few games

1136
00:56:40,320 --> 00:56:41,759
Speaker 1: it's kind of been more of a two to two one,

1137
00:56:41,760 --> 00:56:44,200
Speaker 1: which is something you know, we haven't really seen before.

1138
00:56:44,320 --> 00:56:46,879
Speaker 1: And when you do that, as Bruges kind of exploited them,

1139
00:56:47,000 --> 00:56:49,040
Speaker 1: is you can exploit them in wide areas and Bocum

1140
00:56:49,080 --> 00:56:51,560
Speaker 1: they are mainly a transition team that likes to hit

1141
00:56:51,640 --> 00:56:54,239
Speaker 1: teams in wide areas, so they definitely have a path

1142
00:56:54,280 --> 00:56:56,040
Speaker 1: to score here and they did score in both meetings

1143
00:56:56,040 --> 00:56:58,960
Speaker 1: against Dortmund last season. Also, there's the big one this weekend,

1144
00:56:58,960 --> 00:57:00,920
Speaker 1: Bayern Munich levercuse an Alli a full ride up in

1145
00:57:00,920 --> 00:57:02,719
Speaker 1: the actionework dot Com in the Action of Work app.

1146
00:57:02,760 --> 00:57:04,279
Speaker 1: So if you want to read that, I'll have a

1147
00:57:04,320 --> 00:57:06,440
Speaker 1: pick that everybody's gonna hate, but you can read that.

1148
00:57:07,000 --> 00:57:12,880
Speaker 1: On Friday or Saturday. Over to Italy. Bologna John O

1149
00:57:12,920 --> 00:57:16,880
Speaker 1: Bett plus one ten against Adelanta. Adelanta's Manda man press

1150
00:57:16,960 --> 00:57:19,360
Speaker 1: really isn't doing that well this season. They just kind

1151
00:57:19,360 --> 00:57:22,560
Speaker 1: of got exploited by cess Fabergasts Como Side, who kind

1152
00:57:22,560 --> 00:57:25,000
Speaker 1: of plays a similar build up type of structure to

1153
00:57:25,120 --> 00:57:27,840
Speaker 1: that of Bologna. So I think Bologna isn't a good

1154
00:57:27,880 --> 00:57:32,240
Speaker 1: opportunity here. And also Vincenzo Taliano at Fiorentina last season

1155
00:57:32,920 --> 00:57:35,280
Speaker 1: beat at Alanto three times, so I think it's a

1156
00:57:35,280 --> 00:57:38,000
Speaker 1: good spot for Bologna at home and then over to Spain.

1157
00:57:39,000 --> 00:57:43,640
Speaker 1: Girona plus a half at Celta Vigo. Horrible spot for Girona,

1158
00:57:43,680 --> 00:57:47,240
Speaker 1: but this price is crazy. Girona, I know they lost

1159
00:57:47,280 --> 00:57:50,520
Speaker 1: a ton of guys, but they still have a positive

1160
00:57:50,520 --> 00:57:52,920
Speaker 1: expect to gold Defferensier this season, and that's with playing

1161
00:57:52,920 --> 00:57:57,320
Speaker 1: Athletico and Barcelona and Celta Diego. I know they've gotten better,

1162
00:57:57,440 --> 00:58:00,240
Speaker 1: but I mean, come on, we can't be laying can't

1163
00:58:00,240 --> 00:58:02,880
Speaker 1: be weighing even money against a team that's better than you.

1164
00:58:03,040 --> 00:58:05,959
Speaker 1: That's just that's not how this game works. So yeah,

1165
00:58:06,000 --> 00:58:08,800
Speaker 1: those are my Those are my three bets across Europe.

1166
00:58:08,480 --> 00:58:12,080
Speaker 3: For the weekend, and look out to the Championship. Plymouth

1167
00:58:12,160 --> 00:58:18,280
Speaker 3: Argyle yep making their scent and a big one coming

1168
00:58:18,320 --> 00:58:20,520
Speaker 3: up on Friday. Sam, you could spare a couple of

1169
00:58:20,560 --> 00:58:23,480
Speaker 3: thoughts on that matchup and give out any bets you

1170
00:58:23,640 --> 00:58:25,400
Speaker 3: like in the second division here.

1171
00:58:26,120 --> 00:58:27,800
Speaker 5: Yeah, Plymouthargarla coming.

1172
00:58:30,440 --> 00:58:34,760
Speaker 4: Now, Yeah, Sunderland, A couple of weeks ago to get

1173
00:58:34,760 --> 00:58:37,080
Speaker 4: the better of us, and I really thought they would have.

1174
00:58:37,160 --> 00:58:40,040
Speaker 4: But really good performance gone on to West Brom who

1175
00:58:40,280 --> 00:58:43,120
Speaker 4: topped the table at the minute another really good performance

1176
00:58:43,120 --> 00:58:45,520
Speaker 4: lost one noil, so it'll be interesting to see how

1177
00:58:45,560 --> 00:58:48,720
Speaker 4: Plymouth get on against Lowton on Friday night. Before my

1178
00:58:48,880 --> 00:58:51,800
Speaker 4: pick this weekend, I've gone Burnley and minus zero point

1179
00:58:51,800 --> 00:58:55,320
Speaker 4: two five Asian handicap minus one one four. So Burnley

1180
00:58:55,360 --> 00:58:57,720
Speaker 4: traveled to Oxford, who have won three out of three

1181
00:58:57,760 --> 00:59:01,320
Speaker 4: home games following promotion to the championship in the summer,

1182
00:59:01,360 --> 00:59:04,280
Speaker 4: and their approach to the opening stages right reminds me

1183
00:59:04,280 --> 00:59:07,120
Speaker 4: a little bit from a Fargo last year after their promotion,

1184
00:59:07,880 --> 00:59:11,840
Speaker 4: packed stadium's genuine excitement, like a real buzz around the stadium,

1185
00:59:11,880 --> 00:59:17,720
Speaker 4: and crucially consistent positive results. However, this might just be

1186
00:59:17,760 --> 00:59:19,640
Speaker 4: too big of a jump in such a short space

1187
00:59:19,680 --> 00:59:23,200
Speaker 4: of time. Yes, Oxford have beaten Derby, still compressed and

1188
00:59:23,240 --> 00:59:25,600
Speaker 4: at home, and the latter pair have operated in the

1189
00:59:25,680 --> 00:59:28,600
Speaker 4: division for a long time now. But there is a

1190
00:59:28,600 --> 00:59:31,120
Speaker 4: golf here on the weekend when Burnley make the trip south,

1191
00:59:31,200 --> 00:59:34,840
Speaker 4: and I think it might tell Burnley actually have outscored

1192
00:59:34,880 --> 00:59:38,720
Speaker 4: the XG by a staggering eight point zero five, notching

1193
00:59:38,840 --> 00:59:43,080
Speaker 4: thirteen goals from four point nine to five XG. That's

1194
00:59:43,080 --> 00:59:46,840
Speaker 4: something which will make Beja physically recoil and something you.

1195
00:59:46,840 --> 00:59:49,680
Speaker 5: Should usually stay clear of. But when you can.

1196
00:59:49,560 --> 00:59:52,880
Speaker 4: Get the security of half stakes returned on the better

1197
00:59:52,960 --> 00:59:56,200
Speaker 4: side here at minus one one four, something I simply

1198
00:59:56,200 --> 01:00:00,240
Speaker 4: couldn't resist. So Burnley on the Asian line.

1199
01:00:00,240 --> 01:00:02,040
Speaker 1: I'll just say this, I have a pick. And if

1200
01:00:02,080 --> 01:00:04,920
Speaker 1: you're somebody's frustrated by the modern game, you know, if

1201
01:00:04,920 --> 01:00:07,120
Speaker 1: you're tired of watching teams try to build out of

1202
01:00:07,120 --> 01:00:09,320
Speaker 1: the back, and you want to watch some old school football,

1203
01:00:09,960 --> 01:00:12,800
Speaker 1: tune in to Millwall and Preston. Am I right, Sam?

1204
01:00:12,920 --> 01:00:13,280
Speaker 5: Yes?

1205
01:00:13,320 --> 01:00:17,120
Speaker 1: On Saturday. So it's going to be three five two

1206
01:00:17,320 --> 01:00:19,600
Speaker 1: versus four four to two. It's gonna be who can

1207
01:00:19,640 --> 01:00:22,080
Speaker 1: be better on set pieces? And I think Millwall is

1208
01:00:22,120 --> 01:00:24,760
Speaker 1: a little overpriced here. For being honest, I know Preston

1209
01:00:24,760 --> 01:00:27,880
Speaker 1: hasn't been that good to begin the season. Mill Wall's had,

1210
01:00:28,040 --> 01:00:32,840
Speaker 1: you know, some good underlying numbers and everything, but this

1211
01:00:33,000 --> 01:00:36,000
Speaker 1: one has nil nil or one one written all over

1212
01:00:36,040 --> 01:00:38,120
Speaker 1: and that one one was actually the exact score in

1213
01:00:38,160 --> 01:00:39,800
Speaker 1: both meetings last season. So if you want to take

1214
01:00:39,800 --> 01:00:42,320
Speaker 1: some exact score nil nil, exact score one to one.

1215
01:00:42,360 --> 01:00:44,439
Speaker 1: I don't think that's a bad option here, because both

1216
01:00:44,440 --> 01:00:46,840
Speaker 1: teams are gonna sit in and it's who can just

1217
01:00:47,000 --> 01:00:49,360
Speaker 1: counterattack better. I'm not sure either of them are really

1218
01:00:49,360 --> 01:00:51,720
Speaker 1: better than the other. So Preston plus a half for

1219
01:00:51,760 --> 01:00:54,200
Speaker 1: me is the actual bet. Maybe some exact scores nil

1220
01:00:54,280 --> 01:00:55,720
Speaker 1: nil and one to one.

1221
01:00:56,040 --> 01:00:58,480
Speaker 3: I mean, that's a sense like a beautiful way to

1222
01:00:59,120 --> 01:01:02,240
Speaker 3: spend a couple of hours. We all miss it. We

1223
01:01:02,320 --> 01:01:04,720
Speaker 3: all miss it, we do, and.

1224
01:01:04,800 --> 01:01:08,360
Speaker 1: If ever fire's dice, we're gonna lose it. So we

1225
01:01:08,400 --> 01:01:08,960
Speaker 1: can't let that.

1226
01:01:08,920 --> 01:01:09,440
Speaker 2: Hit one.

1227
01:01:10,960 --> 01:01:12,560
Speaker 3: Now, we can't take the romance out of the game

1228
01:01:12,720 --> 01:01:17,320
Speaker 3: at least one team. Okay, that brings us to our

1229
01:01:17,400 --> 01:01:20,440
Speaker 3: underdog parlay. Just the sixty seven to one. Uh, this

1230
01:01:20,480 --> 01:01:22,800
Speaker 3: one will spit out at beach A. You can go first.

1231
01:01:23,040 --> 01:01:26,560
Speaker 1: Newcastle plus four twenty five kicking kick this thing off

1232
01:01:26,600 --> 01:01:29,560
Speaker 1: seven thirty a m. Eastern time on Saturday. Pretty good

1233
01:01:29,560 --> 01:01:32,840
Speaker 1: spot here for Newcastle. They have the ability to hit

1234
01:01:32,920 --> 01:01:34,920
Speaker 1: City where they're vulnerable. You know a lot of times

1235
01:01:34,920 --> 01:01:37,280
Speaker 1: when City is trying to build up and they're trying

1236
01:01:37,320 --> 01:01:39,840
Speaker 1: to overload teams in the central parts of the pitch,

1237
01:01:40,160 --> 01:01:43,200
Speaker 1: they leave themselves vulnerable in transition, and that happened last

1238
01:01:43,200 --> 01:01:46,240
Speaker 1: season in Saint James Park where e Shach and Gordon

1239
01:01:46,320 --> 01:01:48,560
Speaker 1: got into too B two situations and they scored two

1240
01:01:48,600 --> 01:01:50,760
Speaker 1: goals off of it. Newcastle's been playing out of a

1241
01:01:50,800 --> 01:01:52,800
Speaker 1: four or five to one. They've been much better at

1242
01:01:52,800 --> 01:01:55,440
Speaker 1: being compact in that type of structure and not allowing

1243
01:01:55,480 --> 01:01:58,720
Speaker 1: space in between the lines. So I think Newcastle definitely

1244
01:01:58,720 --> 01:02:00,000
Speaker 1: has a path here to win. At home where they

1245
01:02:00,200 --> 01:02:02,720
Speaker 1: have been so good since the beginning of the twenty

1246
01:02:02,800 --> 01:02:05,120
Speaker 1: twenty two to twenty three season. They have a plus

1247
01:02:05,120 --> 01:02:08,080
Speaker 1: one point two expect the gold differential per ninety minutes,

1248
01:02:08,360 --> 01:02:10,800
Speaker 1: So I like Newcastle at Saint James's Park and plus

1249
01:02:10,840 --> 01:02:11,520
Speaker 1: four twenty five.

1250
01:02:12,400 --> 01:02:13,360
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with Brighton.

1251
01:02:13,520 --> 01:02:16,120
Speaker 3: I do think it's a pretty tough week to find

1252
01:02:16,240 --> 01:02:18,520
Speaker 3: underdogs in the Premier League. This has definitely been the

1253
01:02:18,560 --> 01:02:22,640
Speaker 3: toughest of the bunch. I think, in actually going back

1254
01:02:22,680 --> 01:02:25,720
Speaker 3: to last year too, I can't really remember a slate

1255
01:02:25,840 --> 01:02:29,880
Speaker 3: where the underdogs just as unappealing as this. I would

1256
01:02:29,880 --> 01:02:32,480
Speaker 3: have went Newcastle if BJ left it. I think Brighton

1257
01:02:32,520 --> 01:02:34,640
Speaker 3: would be my second choice. I wouldn't have been able

1258
01:02:34,680 --> 01:02:36,520
Speaker 3: to have a third choice and this Brighton one is

1259
01:02:36,560 --> 01:02:39,160
Speaker 3: even pushing it a bit, but we are looking to

1260
01:02:40,000 --> 01:02:43,120
Speaker 3: always have do our best to get this section onto

1261
01:02:43,160 --> 01:02:45,560
Speaker 3: the show. I do think Brighton are within a shot.

1262
01:02:45,680 --> 01:02:48,280
Speaker 3: They are live against Chelsea. Maybe the market's a little

1263
01:02:48,320 --> 01:02:51,120
Speaker 3: too high on the Blues after it looks like they've

1264
01:02:51,200 --> 01:02:54,080
Speaker 3: kind of course corrected, but we've seen this, We've seen

1265
01:02:54,120 --> 01:02:56,920
Speaker 3: this act from Chelsea before. They do have a habit

1266
01:02:56,960 --> 01:03:00,800
Speaker 3: of kind of lulling us in and then pulling the

1267
01:03:00,880 --> 01:03:02,840
Speaker 3: rug out from under us. And I think this Brighton

1268
01:03:02,880 --> 01:03:05,960
Speaker 3: team it's dangerous against anybody in the Premier League. So

1269
01:03:06,080 --> 01:03:09,840
Speaker 3: they are talented, they're well coached, exciting group. They can

1270
01:03:09,880 --> 01:03:13,440
Speaker 3: beat anybody on any giving weekend. So I'll back the

1271
01:03:13,480 --> 01:03:16,040
Speaker 3: Seagulls on the road against Chelsea at plus three thirty.

1272
01:03:16,160 --> 01:03:21,280
Speaker 4: Sam, Yeah, tough week for an underdog. I just can't

1273
01:03:21,320 --> 01:03:24,200
Speaker 4: shake that west Ham performance at the weekend against Chelsea

1274
01:03:24,320 --> 01:03:26,800
Speaker 4: from my mind, Like it was so poor. Each go

1275
01:03:27,000 --> 01:03:29,919
Speaker 4: conceded was as poor as the last two or three

1276
01:03:29,960 --> 01:03:33,520
Speaker 4: passes was enough to evade west Ham's press and spring

1277
01:03:33,560 --> 01:03:36,240
Speaker 4: a counter and Chelsea were through and go. And I

1278
01:03:36,240 --> 01:03:38,440
Speaker 4: couldn't really believe how easy it was for Chelsea in

1279
01:03:38,480 --> 01:03:41,280
Speaker 4: all honesty, and they cannot. West Ham cannot forced to

1280
01:03:41,280 --> 01:03:42,240
Speaker 4: turn up like that again.

1281
01:03:42,320 --> 01:03:42,560
Speaker 5: Here.

1282
01:03:43,080 --> 01:03:46,360
Speaker 4: Brentford a handy in transition in terms of counterattacking and

1283
01:03:46,360 --> 01:03:49,640
Speaker 4: turning the ball over quickly and progressing through the thirds.

1284
01:03:49,640 --> 01:03:52,120
Speaker 4: It's not too outlandish to say that the home side

1285
01:03:52,120 --> 01:03:55,520
Speaker 4: will likely work some joy against the west Ham side

1286
01:03:55,720 --> 01:03:58,840
Speaker 4: that look some way from sparking into life under Lopotagon.

1287
01:03:59,120 --> 01:04:02,000
Speaker 4: They've also gotten week e FL Cup title to navigate

1288
01:04:02,040 --> 01:04:05,720
Speaker 4: at anfield first, which is not ideal preparation. So gone

1289
01:04:05,760 --> 01:04:07,960
Speaker 4: for Brentford winning over two point five goals at plus

1290
01:04:07,960 --> 01:04:08,440
Speaker 4: two hundred.

1291
01:04:08,840 --> 01:04:11,280
Speaker 3: So with that seeming in parlay wrapped in with us,

1292
01:04:11,280 --> 01:04:14,560
Speaker 3: it's like I said sixty seven to wine ant to

1293
01:04:14,640 --> 01:04:16,560
Speaker 3: the best bets. Now, Sam, you can go first?

1294
01:04:16,960 --> 01:04:19,920
Speaker 4: Yes, so I've got Can I use handicaps here?

1295
01:04:20,440 --> 01:04:21,920
Speaker 1: Absolutely nice?

1296
01:04:21,960 --> 01:04:25,800
Speaker 4: Okay, So I've gone for Bournemouth and Bournemouth minus zero

1297
01:04:25,840 --> 01:04:27,840
Speaker 4: point seventy five Asian handicap.

1298
01:04:29,600 --> 01:04:29,800
Speaker 5: Yeah.

1299
01:04:30,040 --> 01:04:34,520
Speaker 4: Concern for Southampton This Bournemouth side will harass and Harry,

1300
01:04:34,720 --> 01:04:38,000
Speaker 4: especially at home, and if Southampton are not careful, they'll

1301
01:04:38,040 --> 01:04:41,560
Speaker 4: get their pockets pinched via a high targeted press near

1302
01:04:41,600 --> 01:04:45,240
Speaker 4: their own eighteen yard box. Russell Martin will likely instructive

1303
01:04:45,320 --> 01:04:48,000
Speaker 4: Southampton side to get their foot on the ball, work

1304
01:04:48,040 --> 01:04:50,560
Speaker 4: out from the back and attempt to beat any oncoming

1305
01:04:50,600 --> 01:04:54,680
Speaker 4: press as they've always done under current management.

1306
01:04:55,120 --> 01:04:56,760
Speaker 5: That might be easier said than done.

1307
01:04:56,800 --> 01:05:00,600
Speaker 4: Against Bournemouth, I see Iiola getting one up Russell Martin

1308
01:05:00,640 --> 01:05:04,720
Speaker 4: on Monday Night, potentially through a forced defensive era or two.

1309
01:05:04,840 --> 01:05:08,360
Speaker 4: So for me, Bulma are the best Premier League beat

1310
01:05:08,360 --> 01:05:08,800
Speaker 4: of the weekend.

1311
01:05:08,840 --> 01:05:11,960
Speaker 3: I think I like Brentford plus one twenty. I do

1312
01:05:12,040 --> 01:05:14,200
Speaker 3: think that they shouldn't have too much of an issue

1313
01:05:14,200 --> 01:05:16,720
Speaker 3: with Sam just noted I guess a west Ham defense.

1314
01:05:16,800 --> 01:05:19,240
Speaker 3: I like the money line. I think you can absolutely

1315
01:05:19,280 --> 01:05:20,880
Speaker 3: play them Alts here too if you want to chase

1316
01:05:20,880 --> 01:05:24,360
Speaker 3: some big prices to have some fun. But I think

1317
01:05:24,360 --> 01:05:28,080
Speaker 3: that they have an absolute chance to run rampant against

1318
01:05:28,080 --> 01:05:31,320
Speaker 3: this west Ham d that none of us are believing

1319
01:05:31,480 --> 01:05:35,560
Speaker 3: has improved around the corner, all right, bj last one

1320
01:05:35,600 --> 01:05:36,040
Speaker 3: for the show.

1321
01:05:36,520 --> 01:05:39,920
Speaker 1: Aston Villa minus one twenty on the road against Ipswich

1322
01:05:40,040 --> 01:05:43,080
Speaker 1: offensively has been terrible and the reason for that is

1323
01:05:43,280 --> 01:05:45,720
Speaker 1: because they're still trying to build on the back. Despite

1324
01:05:45,760 --> 01:05:49,200
Speaker 1: only holding thirty seven percent of the possession so far,

1325
01:05:49,560 --> 01:05:53,240
Speaker 1: they are only averaging six box entries per ninety minutes.

1326
01:05:53,280 --> 01:05:56,080
Speaker 1: For context, last season Sheffield United it was category wally

1327
01:05:56,160 --> 01:05:58,080
Speaker 1: the worst team in the Premier League averaged eight and

1328
01:05:58,080 --> 01:05:59,960
Speaker 1: a half. So if things continue, Ipswich is going to

1329
01:05:59,960 --> 01:06:01,880
Speaker 1: go down as one of the worst offensive teams we've

1330
01:06:01,920 --> 01:06:05,400
Speaker 1: ever seen. Also, they've only created three point two expected

1331
01:06:05,400 --> 01:06:08,160
Speaker 1: goals and half of that came against Southampton last weekend,

1332
01:06:08,280 --> 01:06:10,800
Speaker 1: so this is not really that good to the good

1333
01:06:10,800 --> 01:06:13,120
Speaker 1: of a matchup for them and their defense. Whether they're

1334
01:06:13,120 --> 01:06:15,280
Speaker 1: playing out of their mid block, they're allowing teams to

1335
01:06:15,320 --> 01:06:18,080
Speaker 1: just play through them whenever they want. Aston Villa is

1336
01:06:18,120 --> 01:06:20,040
Speaker 1: a really good build up team and a team this

1337
01:06:20,120 --> 01:06:23,400
Speaker 1: summer that made a conscious effort to get a lot

1338
01:06:23,440 --> 01:06:25,600
Speaker 1: of depth into their squads. So even though this is

1339
01:06:25,600 --> 01:06:28,000
Speaker 1: a bad spot because they have Bayern Munich on deck

1340
01:06:28,000 --> 01:06:30,600
Speaker 1: in the Champions League, I think the price is way

1341
01:06:30,800 --> 01:06:34,160
Speaker 1: way too low here for against Ipswich, who I think

1342
01:06:34,240 --> 01:06:35,880
Speaker 1: is the worst team in the Premier League right now.

1343
01:06:36,280 --> 01:06:38,760
Speaker 3: Okay, now that does it for another episode of Wondergulf.

1344
01:06:38,800 --> 01:06:42,040
Speaker 3: Thank you again for listening, rating, for viewing, subscribing. If

1345
01:06:42,080 --> 01:06:44,480
Speaker 3: you've done that, thank you to our producer Noah. We'll

1346
01:06:44,520 --> 01:06:47,960
Speaker 3: be back on Monday morning. To do some more Champions

1347
01:06:48,000 --> 01:06:49,760
Speaker 3: League stuff. Maybe we hit a couple more of these

1348
01:06:49,840 --> 01:06:52,919
Speaker 3: nil nails out of the park. Probably not, And then

1349
01:06:53,280 --> 01:06:58,479
Speaker 3: again next Thursday for Premier League preview before another international break.

1350
01:06:58,520 --> 01:07:00,600
Speaker 3: So for BJ and Sam, I'm Michael, thank you and

1351
01:07:00,680 --> 01:07:01,120
Speaker 3: good luck.

1352
01:07:09,240 --> 01:07:12,720
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1353
01:07:13,120 --> 01:07:15,960
Speaker 5: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1354
01:07:16,240 --> 01:07:18,840
Speaker 5: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1355
01:07:18,920 --> 01:07:19,720
Speaker 5: hundred gambler