1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:05,880 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action also. 2 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:09,680 Speaker 2: All right, here we go from. 3 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:15,880 Speaker 3: Growing as spect I'm saying it's a cash touchdown that fall. 4 00:00:15,960 --> 00:00:18,920 Speaker 4: We see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they 5 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:19,439 Speaker 4: go to wind. 6 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:24,880 Speaker 2: That's incredible. Big banks, small banks. I like to make money. 7 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:28,000 Speaker 2: All right, this is the ultimate combition if you. 8 00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:28,680 Speaker 5: Want to pack. 9 00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:33,159 Speaker 2: And we are underway. 10 00:00:34,120 --> 00:00:37,839 Speaker 3: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast presented by bet MGM. 11 00:00:37,880 --> 00:00:41,520 Speaker 3: I'm your host, Brendan Glasheen. Today's episode NFL Week one 12 00:00:41,760 --> 00:00:46,960 Speaker 3: Best Bets, our first Best Bets episode of the season. 13 00:00:47,080 --> 00:00:50,800 Speaker 3: We will be with you for all eighteen weeks and 14 00:00:50,920 --> 00:00:54,720 Speaker 3: also the postseason. Joining us this year on our Best 15 00:00:54,760 --> 00:00:58,560 Speaker 3: Bets pod mister Brandon Anderson he returns from last year 16 00:00:59,040 --> 00:01:02,080 Speaker 3: Vegas Refund and Luke Swain. These two will be main 17 00:01:02,200 --> 00:01:06,160 Speaker 3: staples throughout the course of the year. Our third rotating 18 00:01:06,240 --> 00:01:09,800 Speaker 3: expert he gets the first crack. Anthony Dbundo is in 19 00:01:09,840 --> 00:01:13,520 Speaker 3: the third analyst chair. Today we will also have Jill 20 00:01:13,600 --> 00:01:16,760 Speaker 3: Gallant and Grant me for joining us throughout the season. 21 00:01:16,800 --> 00:01:20,280 Speaker 3: So we look forward to all hanging with us throughout 22 00:01:20,280 --> 00:01:21,560 Speaker 3: the course of the year, and those of you that 23 00:01:21,600 --> 00:01:24,920 Speaker 3: are new welcome. Let's dive right in, no time to waste. 24 00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:26,000 Speaker 2: We've been talking about. 25 00:01:25,840 --> 00:01:29,319 Speaker 3: These freaking games for three months. Brandon Anderson our first 26 00:01:29,480 --> 00:01:30,840 Speaker 3: best bet for Week one. 27 00:01:31,319 --> 00:01:34,440 Speaker 5: All right, let's dig into a first beat of the year. Guys, 28 00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:38,960 Speaker 5: Texans plus ten against the Baltimore Ravens. You got to 29 00:01:39,040 --> 00:01:41,720 Speaker 5: start it the right way for me. Week one is 30 00:01:41,760 --> 00:01:44,640 Speaker 5: all about preseason reads. So I'm all in on the Texans. 31 00:01:44,800 --> 00:01:48,560 Speaker 5: If you've been listening to the podcast, reading Messeduff online, Texans, 32 00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:51,280 Speaker 5: Texans everywhere. I got futures all over the place. I 33 00:01:51,360 --> 00:01:53,320 Speaker 5: love the floor racers on this team. They're brought in 34 00:01:53,600 --> 00:01:57,320 Speaker 5: Sheldon Rankins, Jimmy Ward on defense, check Mason on the line. 35 00:01:57,600 --> 00:02:00,000 Speaker 5: I love Will Anderson, the top draft pick my defense 36 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:03,120 Speaker 5: to Rookie of the Year pick, Derek Stingley, shut down 37 00:02:03,200 --> 00:02:06,240 Speaker 5: corner type, missed a lot of last season back half. 38 00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:08,960 Speaker 5: He's back as a sophomore. And then, of course the 39 00:02:09,000 --> 00:02:12,520 Speaker 5: new coaching staff. I am in, guys on Demico Ryans. 40 00:02:12,800 --> 00:02:15,400 Speaker 5: I mean, I'm Bobby Slowick, the offensive coordinator from the 41 00:02:15,400 --> 00:02:19,800 Speaker 5: Shanahan Tree. They retained Frank Ross special teams coach. He 42 00:02:19,919 --> 00:02:22,119 Speaker 5: led the unit to number two in the league last year. 43 00:02:22,200 --> 00:02:24,320 Speaker 5: So I just like a lot of the spine here. 44 00:02:24,639 --> 00:02:26,959 Speaker 5: The offensive line, I kind of wish they were a 45 00:02:26,960 --> 00:02:29,120 Speaker 5: little healthier than they have looked so far. But I 46 00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:32,120 Speaker 5: like the defense. I like the special teams, and the 47 00:02:32,200 --> 00:02:35,440 Speaker 5: defense was top ten actually in DBA back half of 48 00:02:35,560 --> 00:02:37,800 Speaker 5: last season, second against the pass. 49 00:02:38,320 --> 00:02:39,799 Speaker 2: Now they get back. 50 00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:42,760 Speaker 5: Stingley who missed most of that, the ad Will Anderson, 51 00:02:42,919 --> 00:02:45,280 Speaker 5: the top defender of the draft, and the ed Demiko 52 00:02:45,400 --> 00:02:48,840 Speaker 5: Ryans who led obviously great defense these last years in 53 00:02:48,919 --> 00:02:53,119 Speaker 5: San Francisco. So Baltimore, I like the idea. I think 54 00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:56,079 Speaker 5: later in the season is when we're out Baltimore. Obviously 55 00:02:56,120 --> 00:02:59,160 Speaker 5: we got Todd Monkin the new offensive coordinator. That is 56 00:02:59,200 --> 00:03:01,760 Speaker 5: a huge departure for what that offense is going to 57 00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:03,880 Speaker 5: look like. I can't wait to see it, but I 58 00:03:04,000 --> 00:03:05,240 Speaker 5: worry that it might take. 59 00:03:05,080 --> 00:03:05,919 Speaker 2: Them a little time. 60 00:03:06,160 --> 00:03:09,280 Speaker 5: If you look back, Monkin has led an offense four seasons, 61 00:03:09,280 --> 00:03:12,360 Speaker 5: previously three of the Bucks, one with the Browns September 62 00:03:12,360 --> 00:03:16,079 Speaker 5: and October. Monkin led offenses are nine to eighteen and 63 00:03:16,160 --> 00:03:19,040 Speaker 5: a one against the spread thirty three percent cover rate, 64 00:03:19,080 --> 00:03:22,079 Speaker 5: and when they're favored two to ten against the spread. 65 00:03:22,400 --> 00:03:25,560 Speaker 5: When Todd Munkin leads the offense, the stuff takes time, 66 00:03:26,240 --> 00:03:29,040 Speaker 5: and this is probably one of the biggest switches offensively 67 00:03:29,040 --> 00:03:31,320 Speaker 5: that we've seen Lamar Jackson. It's going to take a 68 00:03:31,360 --> 00:03:33,760 Speaker 5: little time to go from this very run heavy Greg 69 00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:37,160 Speaker 5: Roman offense to probably more of a spread pass attack 70 00:03:37,320 --> 00:03:38,640 Speaker 5: so early. 71 00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:38,800 Speaker 2: In the year. 72 00:03:39,160 --> 00:03:42,080 Speaker 5: Ten points, it's just too much. We just don't know 73 00:03:42,360 --> 00:03:44,880 Speaker 5: enough about these teams yet, and I think we are 74 00:03:44,880 --> 00:03:48,680 Speaker 5: assuming too much about Baltimore and maybe not enough about Houston. 75 00:03:49,280 --> 00:03:52,480 Speaker 5: Week one underdogs of eight points or more twenty five 76 00:03:52,640 --> 00:03:55,560 Speaker 5: and nine to the spread seventy four percent cover rate 77 00:03:55,600 --> 00:03:58,320 Speaker 5: over the last couple decades. Week one road dogs that 78 00:03:58,360 --> 00:04:02,080 Speaker 5: missed the playoffs sixty four percent since twenty eleven against 79 00:04:02,120 --> 00:04:05,680 Speaker 5: the spread. Houston's my team, guys worst to first Division 80 00:04:05,720 --> 00:04:09,080 Speaker 5: winner eleven to one. And I bring that up because 81 00:04:09,120 --> 00:04:10,760 Speaker 5: I had to put decide to I'm on my bet 82 00:04:10,800 --> 00:04:12,840 Speaker 5: now or do I wait till after this spot where 83 00:04:12,880 --> 00:04:15,880 Speaker 5: they're huge dogs. I want it now because I think 84 00:04:15,920 --> 00:04:19,320 Speaker 5: Houston has a legitimate chance to stay in and win 85 00:04:19,480 --> 00:04:22,680 Speaker 5: this game. Week one road underdogs of seven to ten 86 00:04:22,720 --> 00:04:26,039 Speaker 5: points have a twenty five percent ROI on the money 87 00:04:26,080 --> 00:04:29,279 Speaker 5: line in Week one, So give me the Texans plus ten, 88 00:04:29,760 --> 00:04:31,960 Speaker 5: give me the plus three to ninety. I'll sprinkle the 89 00:04:31,960 --> 00:04:34,920 Speaker 5: money line and let's get this Houston party started out 90 00:04:34,960 --> 00:04:35,640 Speaker 5: the right way. 91 00:04:35,880 --> 00:04:36,200 Speaker 6: All right. 92 00:04:36,240 --> 00:04:39,960 Speaker 3: You've been consistent on this throughout the entire offseason, into 93 00:04:40,200 --> 00:04:42,480 Speaker 3: training camps, preseason, and here you are. 94 00:04:42,640 --> 00:04:43,919 Speaker 2: Your first bet of the year. 95 00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:47,080 Speaker 3: Is Texans plus ten talking size and totals. Of course 96 00:04:47,080 --> 00:04:50,640 Speaker 3: for week one, Luke Swayin, welcome back to the program. 97 00:04:50,720 --> 00:04:53,440 Speaker 3: Your first best bet of the year. 98 00:04:53,880 --> 00:04:57,200 Speaker 1: So my first one is gonna be the Seattle Seahawks 99 00:04:57,240 --> 00:05:01,880 Speaker 1: minus five and a half, currently hosting the LA Rams, 100 00:05:01,920 --> 00:05:05,039 Speaker 1: which this one does feel like it is somewhat of 101 00:05:05,040 --> 00:05:08,799 Speaker 1: a too good to be true line where I honestly 102 00:05:08,800 --> 00:05:11,600 Speaker 1: don't understand how it hasn't moved since Cooper Cup has 103 00:05:11,600 --> 00:05:13,920 Speaker 1: been ruled out. It was three and a half. I 104 00:05:13,960 --> 00:05:16,280 Speaker 1: want to say a couple weeks ago. It's been five 105 00:05:16,320 --> 00:05:18,200 Speaker 1: and a half. I want to say last week or 106 00:05:18,279 --> 00:05:21,920 Speaker 1: so and Cooper Cup gets ruled out and it just hasn't. 107 00:05:22,279 --> 00:05:25,000 Speaker 1: I still think it is going to move up. I 108 00:05:25,000 --> 00:05:27,440 Speaker 1: would absolutely love if I woke up on Sunday and 109 00:05:27,480 --> 00:05:29,920 Speaker 1: it was minus seven. But at five and a half, 110 00:05:30,000 --> 00:05:33,800 Speaker 1: it is still a play This Rams team, it's always 111 00:05:33,880 --> 00:05:36,599 Speaker 1: been the shiny object type team where you have the 112 00:05:36,640 --> 00:05:39,360 Speaker 1: Aaron Donalds, the Mass Stafford, just the Cooper Cups that 113 00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:43,640 Speaker 1: like are the factor that everyone focus on. And then 114 00:05:43,680 --> 00:05:47,120 Speaker 1: behind those shiny objects, they have just been like really 115 00:05:47,320 --> 00:05:51,039 Speaker 1: bodies and that's really it. And going into this year, 116 00:05:51,080 --> 00:05:54,719 Speaker 1: they are losing six starters on defense, which includes Ramsey, Wagner, 117 00:05:54,760 --> 00:05:58,000 Speaker 1: and Floyd. We don't have Cup. Stafford didn't play in 118 00:05:58,000 --> 00:06:01,159 Speaker 1: the preseason. And then when you fact during the pressure 119 00:06:01,240 --> 00:06:04,920 Speaker 1: rate for the Rams outside of Aaron Donald, their defensive 120 00:06:04,960 --> 00:06:08,279 Speaker 1: lineman had six sacks total last year, So there really 121 00:06:08,320 --> 00:06:10,839 Speaker 1: isn't anything to get behind, which is kind of why 122 00:06:10,839 --> 00:06:13,039 Speaker 1: it feels too good to be true. Because at five 123 00:06:13,080 --> 00:06:16,800 Speaker 1: and a half, the Seahawks offense I think is going 124 00:06:16,880 --> 00:06:19,800 Speaker 1: to surprise a lot of people and make even a 125 00:06:19,920 --> 00:06:22,440 Speaker 1: leap from last year. I believe in Gino Smith, they 126 00:06:22,440 --> 00:06:25,000 Speaker 1: have all the home field advantage. There's just too many 127 00:06:25,000 --> 00:06:29,960 Speaker 1: factors that favor the Seahawks that go against the Rams. 128 00:06:30,040 --> 00:06:33,479 Speaker 1: And at five and a half, that is my only 129 00:06:33,520 --> 00:06:35,400 Speaker 1: favorite that I'll be giving on on this podcast, But 130 00:06:35,839 --> 00:06:37,520 Speaker 1: I'll go Seahawks minus five and a half. 131 00:06:37,880 --> 00:06:40,320 Speaker 3: To your point, not just the Rams this week, but 132 00:06:40,680 --> 00:06:43,360 Speaker 3: from a season long perspective, that win total hit six 133 00:06:43,400 --> 00:06:45,840 Speaker 3: and a half and the under six and a half 134 00:06:45,920 --> 00:06:47,400 Speaker 3: juice to minus one forty. 135 00:06:47,480 --> 00:06:48,880 Speaker 2: So it's not just this week. 136 00:06:49,000 --> 00:06:52,080 Speaker 3: It could be a down year for the Rams. Dubundo 137 00:06:52,360 --> 00:06:55,039 Speaker 3: welcome first best bet please for Week one. 138 00:06:55,279 --> 00:06:56,960 Speaker 6: Well, it'll be interesting to see two two at well 139 00:06:56,960 --> 00:06:59,719 Speaker 6: in Van Jefferson against those two Seattle corners. It's gonna 140 00:06:59,720 --> 00:07:01,600 Speaker 6: be tough, I think for the Rams to move the ball. 141 00:07:01,760 --> 00:07:04,280 Speaker 6: No offensive line either. I'm going to go with the 142 00:07:04,320 --> 00:07:08,240 Speaker 6: Tennessee Titans plus three against the New Orleans Saints. We 143 00:07:08,240 --> 00:07:11,000 Speaker 6: were joking with Matt Trevi, r NFL editor when I 144 00:07:11,120 --> 00:07:13,800 Speaker 6: requested this game specifically as my first game to write 145 00:07:13,880 --> 00:07:15,960 Speaker 6: up so I will have a full preview of this 146 00:07:16,000 --> 00:07:17,640 Speaker 6: game in the Action Network app, and he was kind 147 00:07:17,680 --> 00:07:19,240 Speaker 6: of joking around, like why do you want this game? 148 00:07:19,280 --> 00:07:19,920 Speaker 2: It's so ugly. 149 00:07:20,560 --> 00:07:22,280 Speaker 6: I think the Saints are a bit of a house 150 00:07:22,280 --> 00:07:24,480 Speaker 6: of cards, and I think that things could come tumbling 151 00:07:24,520 --> 00:07:27,760 Speaker 6: down quite quickly for them. They are the second oldest 152 00:07:27,840 --> 00:07:31,200 Speaker 6: roster in the NFL based on the fifty three man 153 00:07:31,760 --> 00:07:34,080 Speaker 6: they are slightly younger than the Jets, but remember the 154 00:07:34,160 --> 00:07:36,760 Speaker 6: Jets with their punter and their quarterback are kind of 155 00:07:36,800 --> 00:07:40,520 Speaker 6: skewed by a couple outliers, so really the oldest roster 156 00:07:40,680 --> 00:07:43,400 Speaker 6: overall in the league, and they're relying on a ton 157 00:07:43,440 --> 00:07:46,520 Speaker 6: of production from very old players on both sides of 158 00:07:46,520 --> 00:07:48,119 Speaker 6: the ball, and I think that's a major red flag 159 00:07:48,160 --> 00:07:50,360 Speaker 6: coming into any season where you want to be younger 160 00:07:50,400 --> 00:07:53,120 Speaker 6: and trending in the right direction, and Tennessee right around 161 00:07:53,200 --> 00:07:56,640 Speaker 6: league average in age. Also, just don't know what's left 162 00:07:56,680 --> 00:07:59,640 Speaker 6: of Derek Carr. You know Carr is you know, the 163 00:07:59,640 --> 00:08:02,480 Speaker 6: big offseason change. He has not been good in his 164 00:08:02,520 --> 00:08:05,720 Speaker 6: first year with new systems and new schemes, and he's 165 00:08:05,760 --> 00:08:07,680 Speaker 6: taken some time, and he certainly had his moments in 166 00:08:07,720 --> 00:08:09,040 Speaker 6: the NFL, But this is a guy who was in 167 00:08:09,080 --> 00:08:12,640 Speaker 6: the bottom eight amongst quarterbacks with at least one hundred 168 00:08:12,640 --> 00:08:16,960 Speaker 6: plays last year in EPA per play eo A, ep A, CPOE, 169 00:08:16,960 --> 00:08:21,200 Speaker 6: composite success rates were in the tank. He was considerably 170 00:08:21,240 --> 00:08:24,880 Speaker 6: worse than Andy Dalton in the same metrics. So I think, 171 00:08:24,920 --> 00:08:27,480 Speaker 6: you know, everybody's assuming, well, you know, Andy Dalton kind 172 00:08:27,480 --> 00:08:30,440 Speaker 6: of at the end of his career, they're upgrading at quarterback, 173 00:08:30,480 --> 00:08:32,400 Speaker 6: but I'm not really sure of that. And the main 174 00:08:32,520 --> 00:08:35,240 Speaker 6: argument for the Saints, if you're betting on them from 175 00:08:35,240 --> 00:08:38,280 Speaker 6: a season long perspective or looking at you know, their 176 00:08:38,320 --> 00:08:40,920 Speaker 6: win total has been the schedule because they have a 177 00:08:41,040 --> 00:08:44,200 Speaker 6: very easy quote unquote schedule. But if you just make 178 00:08:44,240 --> 00:08:47,079 Speaker 6: the Saints a little bit worse than they actually are, 179 00:08:47,200 --> 00:08:49,280 Speaker 6: and I think they are, then all of a sudden, 180 00:08:49,320 --> 00:08:51,400 Speaker 6: that easy schedule becomes a lot of coin flip games. 181 00:08:51,400 --> 00:08:53,240 Speaker 6: And I just don't think that they're nearly as good 182 00:08:53,280 --> 00:08:56,200 Speaker 6: as the market says they are. Here with Tennessee, you're 183 00:08:56,240 --> 00:08:58,480 Speaker 6: buying low, I think on the Titans. After they had 184 00:08:58,480 --> 00:09:01,319 Speaker 6: a disaster second half of the season. First half of 185 00:09:01,400 --> 00:09:04,400 Speaker 6: last year, Titans were the clear favorite to win the 186 00:09:04,400 --> 00:09:07,720 Speaker 6: AFC South. And you know, did they get fortunate a 187 00:09:07,720 --> 00:09:10,319 Speaker 6: few times and some of those wins, absolutely, but remember 188 00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:13,920 Speaker 6: everybody got hurt. They returned most of their defensive personnel 189 00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:17,520 Speaker 6: and their defensive coordinator and Tannehill back in the fold, 190 00:09:17,600 --> 00:09:20,199 Speaker 6: somebody who's I think consistently been undervalued by the market 191 00:09:20,200 --> 00:09:21,480 Speaker 6: and put up solid numbers. 192 00:09:21,840 --> 00:09:22,280 Speaker 2: Last year. 193 00:09:22,360 --> 00:09:24,920 Speaker 6: Was definitely a step back from what we'd seen in 194 00:09:25,000 --> 00:09:28,280 Speaker 6: the maybe Arthur Smith Titan era for their offense, but 195 00:09:28,480 --> 00:09:32,360 Speaker 6: still was a league average quarterback by you know, EPA 196 00:09:32,520 --> 00:09:35,160 Speaker 6: and was above average and in the top ten in 197 00:09:35,240 --> 00:09:38,200 Speaker 6: success rate last year Tannehill. So I think this is 198 00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:40,440 Speaker 6: a clear coin flip game. You know, throw in some 199 00:09:40,440 --> 00:09:42,120 Speaker 6: home field for the Saints, but if you're catching the 200 00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:46,080 Speaker 6: full three, I like Tennessee with the points. Rabel as 201 00:09:46,080 --> 00:09:48,640 Speaker 6: an underdog has always been a profitable endeavor in his 202 00:09:48,720 --> 00:09:51,880 Speaker 6: career as well. You know, whether you think there's something 203 00:09:51,920 --> 00:09:54,240 Speaker 6: to that or it's just small sample noise is to 204 00:09:54,280 --> 00:09:58,480 Speaker 6: be determined, but vary able. Certainly seems to find coaching 205 00:09:58,559 --> 00:10:02,400 Speaker 6: edges and that Titans defense, I just am always impressed 206 00:10:02,400 --> 00:10:04,880 Speaker 6: with how well coached they are and play above their 207 00:10:04,920 --> 00:10:07,520 Speaker 6: talent level. Whereas the Saints team, you know, it's a 208 00:10:07,520 --> 00:10:10,920 Speaker 6: whole new offensive quarterback and system, so there could be 209 00:10:10,960 --> 00:10:11,880 Speaker 6: some growing pains there. 210 00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:14,480 Speaker 3: The NFL is back, so get in on the action 211 00:10:14,600 --> 00:10:17,840 Speaker 3: with the King of Sportsbooks. Sign up with bet MGM 212 00:10:18,120 --> 00:10:21,080 Speaker 3: using bonus code action and get up to one thousand 213 00:10:21,120 --> 00:10:24,400 Speaker 3: dollars paid back in bonus bets if your first bet 214 00:10:24,520 --> 00:10:35,640 Speaker 3: doesn't win. Visit betmgm dot com for terms and conditions. Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Nevada, 215 00:10:35,679 --> 00:10:40,800 Speaker 3: New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Tennessee, Virginia, Washington, 216 00:10:40,880 --> 00:10:43,440 Speaker 3: d C. 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Promotional offers not available in Nevada 240 00:11:58,800 --> 00:12:02,000 Speaker 3: or New York. Brandon your second one. I think ideally 241 00:12:02,080 --> 00:12:05,640 Speaker 3: you'd prefer under three points when you're taking the favorite here, 242 00:12:05,640 --> 00:12:08,599 Speaker 3: but you're so high on the Atlanta Falcons. 243 00:12:08,960 --> 00:12:11,320 Speaker 5: I am giving the Falcons minus three and a half 244 00:12:11,360 --> 00:12:14,280 Speaker 5: against the Panthers, And like you said, I'm still waiting 245 00:12:14,320 --> 00:12:15,680 Speaker 5: on this one. I haven't put it in the app 246 00:12:15,760 --> 00:12:17,840 Speaker 5: yet because I'm hoping we might get a three, but 247 00:12:18,200 --> 00:12:20,320 Speaker 5: I think there's probably a better chance it moves to four. 248 00:12:20,480 --> 00:12:22,960 Speaker 5: That's tb a key number as well, So probably just 249 00:12:22,960 --> 00:12:25,760 Speaker 5: gonna go ahead and make my bet again. Preseason read here, 250 00:12:25,800 --> 00:12:27,280 Speaker 5: and a lot of the same points is said about 251 00:12:27,280 --> 00:12:30,280 Speaker 5: the Texans. A lot of floor raisers added to Atlanta, 252 00:12:30,400 --> 00:12:35,480 Speaker 5: especially defensively, Jesse Bates at safety, the whole defensive line really, 253 00:12:35,559 --> 00:12:40,240 Speaker 5: Kalais Campbell, Onyamada bud Dupree to pass rush aj Terrell. 254 00:12:40,360 --> 00:12:43,840 Speaker 5: He's been there, but I think with actual defenders around him, 255 00:12:44,040 --> 00:12:46,000 Speaker 5: he looks like the star he looked like two years 256 00:12:46,040 --> 00:12:48,640 Speaker 5: ago again, rather than the down season he had last year. 257 00:12:49,000 --> 00:12:52,920 Speaker 5: Asan DVA projected for this year, the Falcons ranked tenth 258 00:12:52,960 --> 00:12:55,880 Speaker 5: in projected defense. That is rich even for. 259 00:12:56,000 --> 00:12:56,960 Speaker 2: My Atlanta love. 260 00:12:57,040 --> 00:12:59,640 Speaker 5: But man, that sounds good to me because I have 261 00:12:59,720 --> 00:13:03,160 Speaker 5: this a top ten offense Arthur Smith, second time we 262 00:13:03,200 --> 00:13:06,480 Speaker 5: get to talk about on the podcast, top six DVA 263 00:13:06,640 --> 00:13:11,880 Speaker 5: offense two times in Tennessee, thirteenth last year with no quarterback. 264 00:13:12,160 --> 00:13:14,960 Speaker 5: And I know we don't really know yet if Atlanta 265 00:13:15,000 --> 00:13:16,920 Speaker 5: has a quarterback this year, but we know they don't 266 00:13:16,920 --> 00:13:20,640 Speaker 5: have Marcus Mariota, so we know they have Jon Robinson, 267 00:13:20,760 --> 00:13:24,440 Speaker 5: Drake London, Kyle Pitts. They have a top ten offensive line. 268 00:13:24,840 --> 00:13:28,200 Speaker 5: I just trust the floor of this team. That run 269 00:13:28,240 --> 00:13:30,679 Speaker 5: game is the one good unit. The offense of Atlanta 270 00:13:30,720 --> 00:13:33,120 Speaker 5: is the one unit to trust here on the field, 271 00:13:33,600 --> 00:13:35,600 Speaker 5: Atlanta has been another team I've been all in on 272 00:13:35,600 --> 00:13:38,320 Speaker 5: the preseason plus one ten to make the playoffs. 273 00:13:38,480 --> 00:13:38,840 Speaker 2: Love that. 274 00:13:38,960 --> 00:13:41,440 Speaker 5: In the week NFC plus two to twenty to go 275 00:13:41,520 --> 00:13:44,360 Speaker 5: worse to first than the vision we just talked about 276 00:13:44,360 --> 00:13:46,160 Speaker 5: the Saints. I agree with the Bundo on a lot 277 00:13:46,160 --> 00:13:49,400 Speaker 5: of the hesitation on New Orleans. This year Atlanta has 278 00:13:49,440 --> 00:13:52,600 Speaker 5: that same soft schedule, and that starts right here. We 279 00:13:52,640 --> 00:13:56,760 Speaker 5: get the rookie quarterback on the road debut. If you 280 00:13:56,800 --> 00:13:59,920 Speaker 5: look back, guys, do you know who the last quarterback 281 00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:02,319 Speaker 5: who was the number one pick is to win in 282 00:14:02,400 --> 00:14:02,920 Speaker 5: Week one? 283 00:14:03,480 --> 00:14:06,880 Speaker 2: It is David, not Derek. David Carr. 284 00:14:07,000 --> 00:14:10,439 Speaker 5: In the two thousand and two since then, number one 285 00:14:10,520 --> 00:14:14,600 Speaker 5: quarterbacks are winlessh thirteen and a one and have covered 286 00:14:14,600 --> 00:14:18,360 Speaker 5: the spread one out of those fourteen times. So Frank Reich, 287 00:14:18,760 --> 00:14:21,800 Speaker 5: our guy in Carolina has never covered in Week one. 288 00:14:22,280 --> 00:14:24,760 Speaker 5: He's zero four to one by eight points a game, 289 00:14:25,120 --> 00:14:28,960 Speaker 5: does not have his team ready. I like Atlanta. Carolina 290 00:14:29,000 --> 00:14:31,360 Speaker 5: look terrible in the preseason. The line is in a 291 00:14:31,440 --> 00:14:34,120 Speaker 5: rough shape chark and feel, and I heard it receiver 292 00:14:34,680 --> 00:14:36,760 Speaker 5: Brian Burns. I don't know if he's even playing or 293 00:14:36,800 --> 00:14:40,000 Speaker 5: what's happening with him this line. Like you said, I'd 294 00:14:40,080 --> 00:14:42,080 Speaker 5: rather the three, but I think it should be about six. 295 00:14:42,120 --> 00:14:44,200 Speaker 5: So I'll take Atlanta minus three and a half. 296 00:14:44,680 --> 00:14:47,000 Speaker 3: That is an injury report for the Panthers. That just 297 00:14:47,080 --> 00:14:47,880 Speaker 3: continues to. 298 00:14:47,920 --> 00:14:49,880 Speaker 2: Grow and it's not promising. 299 00:14:50,040 --> 00:14:52,320 Speaker 3: So Brandon's willing to go minus three and a half 300 00:14:52,360 --> 00:14:55,160 Speaker 3: on the Atlanta Falcons. Luke your second one, and I 301 00:14:55,160 --> 00:14:57,240 Speaker 3: think Dubundo is gonna follow up because he's in agreement 302 00:14:57,280 --> 00:14:57,640 Speaker 3: on this one. 303 00:14:57,760 --> 00:14:57,960 Speaker 2: Yep. 304 00:14:58,000 --> 00:15:00,200 Speaker 1: So I'm gonna go with the Packers plus one half 305 00:15:00,240 --> 00:15:03,920 Speaker 1: at the Bears, which we got the Justin Fields, who's 306 00:15:03,960 --> 00:15:06,640 Speaker 1: the flashy quarterback that is on everyone's fantasy team. And 307 00:15:06,680 --> 00:15:10,320 Speaker 1: then we have Jordan Love who is replacing Aaron Rodgers, 308 00:15:10,360 --> 00:15:14,120 Speaker 1: who is on nobody's fantasy team. This is just one 309 00:15:14,160 --> 00:15:17,240 Speaker 1: that I think the Packers aren't getting a lot of 310 00:15:17,280 --> 00:15:20,440 Speaker 1: credit because Aaron Rodgers isn't there. And then we have 311 00:15:20,560 --> 00:15:22,560 Speaker 1: the Bears, who are getting almost too much credit because 312 00:15:22,560 --> 00:15:26,640 Speaker 1: they have Justin Fields. The Packers still have weapons, are 313 00:15:26,680 --> 00:15:29,600 Speaker 1: running back, wide, receiver, tight end, they have a solid 314 00:15:29,640 --> 00:15:33,440 Speaker 1: old line. Christian Watson and Dobbs haven't practiced. I think 315 00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:36,320 Speaker 1: Dobbs practice today, and Christian Rotson was still held out, 316 00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:40,360 Speaker 1: but I still expect Watson to play. Even if he didn't, 317 00:15:40,400 --> 00:15:43,120 Speaker 1: it wouldn't really matter honestly in terms of my bet. 318 00:15:43,640 --> 00:15:46,720 Speaker 1: But the Packers are just like historically a great team 319 00:15:46,720 --> 00:15:49,840 Speaker 1: and the Bears just haven't and the history are different teams. 320 00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:52,720 Speaker 1: But at the same time, Aaron Rodgers is on the Jets, 321 00:15:52,760 --> 00:15:55,240 Speaker 1: and I really think that is just everyone is tossing 322 00:15:55,240 --> 00:15:58,080 Speaker 1: out the Packers at this point. The Packers last year 323 00:15:58,080 --> 00:16:02,680 Speaker 1: were dead last against rush quarterbacks, but actually performed pretty 324 00:16:02,680 --> 00:16:05,400 Speaker 1: well against Fields. Fields has never had a positive VPA 325 00:16:05,520 --> 00:16:09,600 Speaker 1: game passing against the Packers, which is great because the 326 00:16:09,640 --> 00:16:12,200 Speaker 1: Packers are returning a bunch of starters. And then we 327 00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:15,960 Speaker 1: have Tevin Jenkins, who is the Bear's best offensive lineman, 328 00:16:15,960 --> 00:16:18,800 Speaker 1: a left tackle who has just announced out for six weeks, 329 00:16:18,800 --> 00:16:21,560 Speaker 1: so that should help even more. This one at plus 330 00:16:21,560 --> 00:16:24,240 Speaker 1: one and a half, like it was surprising to see 331 00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:28,840 Speaker 1: the Packers, even if it is a tiny underdog an 332 00:16:28,920 --> 00:16:31,040 Speaker 1: underdog when it opened, and it still is, and I 333 00:16:31,040 --> 00:16:33,400 Speaker 1: wouldn't be surprised if this closes to pick them or 334 00:16:33,400 --> 00:16:34,800 Speaker 1: maybe even Packers minus one. 335 00:16:34,840 --> 00:16:37,200 Speaker 3: It's toggled between one and one and a half throughout 336 00:16:37,240 --> 00:16:38,920 Speaker 3: the week. Du Bundle, what can you add to this? 337 00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:41,120 Speaker 3: You're also on the Packers for your second best bet. 338 00:16:41,360 --> 00:16:45,920 Speaker 6: Where are the Bears better than the Packers crickets? That 339 00:16:45,920 --> 00:16:48,640 Speaker 6: would be my question. I don't know the answer that question. 340 00:16:49,120 --> 00:16:49,440 Speaker 2: You have to. 341 00:16:49,440 --> 00:16:50,520 Speaker 6: I mean, you have to give me something. 342 00:16:50,680 --> 00:16:52,520 Speaker 2: I don't know what the answer is. 343 00:16:52,560 --> 00:16:55,760 Speaker 6: I mean, defensively, I've been the biggest Joe Barry critic. 344 00:16:55,800 --> 00:16:59,120 Speaker 6: I think everybody on NFL Twitter and any NFL conversation 345 00:16:59,160 --> 00:17:00,960 Speaker 6: will tell you that, Like, he's a pretty overrated defensive 346 00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:02,960 Speaker 6: coordinator because every year we go, well, look at how 347 00:17:03,040 --> 00:17:05,800 Speaker 6: talented the Packers are defensively, and then they get kind 348 00:17:05,800 --> 00:17:08,400 Speaker 6: of bullied. But this Bears offense is not one that's 349 00:17:08,400 --> 00:17:10,360 Speaker 6: going to run you over. And that's been the Packers' 350 00:17:10,359 --> 00:17:12,480 Speaker 6: biggest problem is that their run game. You know, when 351 00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:14,399 Speaker 6: the teams can run the ball on them, it's just 352 00:17:14,440 --> 00:17:18,679 Speaker 6: a it's a convoy and that was exposed at various 353 00:17:18,680 --> 00:17:21,119 Speaker 6: points last season. But the Bears offense is not really that. 354 00:17:21,160 --> 00:17:22,879 Speaker 6: They're more of a finesse offense. 355 00:17:23,000 --> 00:17:24,040 Speaker 2: And justin fields. 356 00:17:24,440 --> 00:17:26,520 Speaker 6: Look, I get the idea that he could take this 357 00:17:26,680 --> 00:17:29,760 Speaker 6: big leap. He could and that gives the Bears like 358 00:17:29,800 --> 00:17:32,640 Speaker 6: a high upside, but I don't think they're that great 359 00:17:32,680 --> 00:17:34,600 Speaker 6: on paper right now. Their defense still has a ton 360 00:17:34,600 --> 00:17:37,000 Speaker 6: of holes they really haven't plugged. They're still kind of 361 00:17:37,040 --> 00:17:41,600 Speaker 6: developing this rebuild under and around fields, and his accuracy 362 00:17:41,680 --> 00:17:44,280 Speaker 6: rate was sixth worse in the NFL last year. His 363 00:17:44,960 --> 00:17:48,280 Speaker 6: pressure rate in the pocket was bottom five. Part of 364 00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:50,080 Speaker 6: that is the old line was bad. Part of that 365 00:17:50,240 --> 00:17:53,000 Speaker 6: is Fields is not very good at avoiding sacks. He 366 00:17:53,359 --> 00:17:55,359 Speaker 6: still has that problem. He had the problem in college 367 00:17:55,359 --> 00:17:57,680 Speaker 6: and it's kind of continued. As good of an athlete 368 00:17:57,680 --> 00:18:00,000 Speaker 6: as he is, as explosive as he is, his decisi 369 00:18:00,160 --> 00:18:02,720 Speaker 6: making in the pocket remains to be a question mark. 370 00:18:02,800 --> 00:18:06,120 Speaker 6: I have less doubt about Love right now. I think 371 00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:09,840 Speaker 6: you know, Love as a passer in limited samples we've seen, 372 00:18:09,920 --> 00:18:12,680 Speaker 6: has been decisive. He's been solid in the pocket. There's 373 00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:15,320 Speaker 6: accuracy questions with him too, But this is a better 374 00:18:15,520 --> 00:18:20,359 Speaker 6: offensive line for sure. Brandon Anderson wrote about his NFL 375 00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:22,679 Speaker 6: offensive line rankings. He had the Bear's twenty fifth. I 376 00:18:22,680 --> 00:18:24,440 Speaker 6: think it's a pretty fair ranking that they're one of 377 00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:28,320 Speaker 6: the worst offensive lines in the NFL. And so, you know, 378 00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:31,159 Speaker 6: this market has moved steadily toward Green Bay. It was 379 00:18:31,200 --> 00:18:33,359 Speaker 6: two and a half all summer, and as limits have 380 00:18:33,359 --> 00:18:34,920 Speaker 6: gone up and as the market is taking more money, 381 00:18:34,920 --> 00:18:38,040 Speaker 6: it slowly started its trend toward what I think will 382 00:18:38,080 --> 00:18:40,159 Speaker 6: ultimately close to pick them. So I'm gonna take the 383 00:18:40,200 --> 00:18:42,800 Speaker 6: point I'm gonna take the Packers on the road in Chicago. 384 00:18:42,960 --> 00:18:45,640 Speaker 3: Brandon Anderson and Luke's in alignment on this next pick. 385 00:18:45,640 --> 00:18:48,480 Speaker 3: You've got for us a home dog. It's Rah Rah 386 00:18:48,640 --> 00:18:49,440 Speaker 3: Mike Tomlin. 387 00:18:49,920 --> 00:18:52,720 Speaker 5: Yeah, you know, we love our Rara Tomlin spot. We 388 00:18:52,760 --> 00:18:55,720 Speaker 5: went here often toward the end of last season, and 389 00:18:55,760 --> 00:18:57,399 Speaker 5: a lot of that reason was TJ. A. 390 00:18:57,440 --> 00:18:57,720 Speaker 2: Watts. 391 00:18:57,760 --> 00:18:59,960 Speaker 5: We're going back to the well. Give me the steel 392 00:19:00,359 --> 00:19:03,080 Speaker 5: plus two and a half at home against the forty 393 00:19:03,160 --> 00:19:05,080 Speaker 5: nine ers, and yeah, I just think this is a 394 00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:10,800 Speaker 5: classic fade. Kyle Shanahan the favorite and Raw Raw Tomlin underdog, 395 00:19:10,840 --> 00:19:14,560 Speaker 5: gave me the combo spot here. Pittsburgh's defense, I think 396 00:19:14,760 --> 00:19:18,040 Speaker 5: is the best unit on the field. That's right, Pittsburgh 397 00:19:18,040 --> 00:19:19,800 Speaker 5: has the best union on the field, not the forty 398 00:19:19,880 --> 00:19:23,159 Speaker 5: nine Ers. That defense, when Watt played last year, was 399 00:19:23,200 --> 00:19:26,240 Speaker 5: top ten against the pass and they were number one 400 00:19:26,440 --> 00:19:29,440 Speaker 5: against the rush. And remember last year, we're getting a 401 00:19:29,480 --> 00:19:31,480 Speaker 5: lot of talk, all the hype about brock perty, but 402 00:19:31,480 --> 00:19:34,680 Speaker 5: if you look at the underlying numbers, the offensive jump 403 00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:36,600 Speaker 5: that happened in the second half of the year was 404 00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:40,520 Speaker 5: McCaffrey in the run game and the blocking, and then 405 00:19:40,600 --> 00:19:43,080 Speaker 5: Purdy was kind of just doing what Garoppolo did as 406 00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:45,480 Speaker 5: far as the metrics said, and it was a different style. 407 00:19:45,560 --> 00:19:48,639 Speaker 5: But the run game is what exploded. Pittsburgh can control 408 00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:49,280 Speaker 5: the run game. 409 00:19:49,600 --> 00:19:50,040 Speaker 2: TJ. A. 410 00:19:50,040 --> 00:19:52,400 Speaker 5: Watt when he was on the field last year, Steelers 411 00:19:52,480 --> 00:19:55,399 Speaker 5: win eight and two when he didn't play one in six. 412 00:19:55,800 --> 00:19:58,280 Speaker 5: You can't really make it much clearer than that. And 413 00:19:58,320 --> 00:20:01,320 Speaker 5: to me, this is a change to fade the brock 414 00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:03,920 Speaker 5: pretty narrative, and I'm looking to fade and tell you 415 00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:04,919 Speaker 5: Prus otherwise. 416 00:20:05,680 --> 00:20:07,840 Speaker 2: Last year, in the regular season, we know he never 417 00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:08,600 Speaker 2: lost a game. 418 00:20:08,640 --> 00:20:10,960 Speaker 5: We know he piled up numbers two or more touchdowns 419 00:20:11,000 --> 00:20:14,679 Speaker 5: every game. Average DVA he faced was twenty second in 420 00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:18,320 Speaker 5: the NFL over that stretch. Now he did face Dallas 421 00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:21,080 Speaker 5: in the playoffs, we know that, and he won. They 422 00:20:21,080 --> 00:20:23,359 Speaker 5: had one touchdown in four field goals. He had a 423 00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:27,399 Speaker 5: nineteen percent bad throw rate. Cannot say that he particularly 424 00:20:27,480 --> 00:20:31,080 Speaker 5: overwhelmed us in that game. So, Debando, you mentioned the 425 00:20:31,080 --> 00:20:35,480 Speaker 5: offensive line rankings. San Francisco's have been slowly and steadily 426 00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:38,800 Speaker 5: falling the last few years. I'm a little worried about 427 00:20:38,840 --> 00:20:41,320 Speaker 5: their line against what I think is maybe the best 428 00:20:41,359 --> 00:20:44,320 Speaker 5: pass rush in the NFL. Not just TJ. A. Watt, 429 00:20:44,320 --> 00:20:47,520 Speaker 5: but Alex high Smith and now Marcus Golden two. I 430 00:20:47,520 --> 00:20:50,480 Speaker 5: think they get after Purdy. We've seen him be erratic, 431 00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:53,280 Speaker 5: We've seen him make throws that could be turnovers and 432 00:20:53,320 --> 00:20:57,399 Speaker 5: they haven't been. Maybe Mika Fitzpatrick gets that interception or someone. 433 00:20:58,040 --> 00:21:00,479 Speaker 5: I think this is one of those spots that Monday 434 00:21:00,520 --> 00:21:04,560 Speaker 5: morning everyone's talking about, Oh man, did the forty nine 435 00:21:04,640 --> 00:21:07,200 Speaker 5: Ers blow it by sticking with Brock Purdy? 436 00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:10,360 Speaker 2: Three turnovers? We got the whole story. 437 00:21:10,720 --> 00:21:14,400 Speaker 5: Kyl Shanahan one in five against the spread in week one, 438 00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:18,040 Speaker 5: only two and four straight up that Sam Fran defense. 439 00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:20,359 Speaker 5: We don't really know how much Nick Bosa is going 440 00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:22,720 Speaker 5: to be able to give, and I think their corners 441 00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:25,920 Speaker 5: can get beaten by the Steelers receiver. So ra RA 442 00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:29,840 Speaker 5: Tomlin specific stat here that normally the rah Ras better 443 00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:33,040 Speaker 5: later in the season, but Tomlin as a home underdog 444 00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:36,720 Speaker 5: seven or less at any point of the season fourteen 445 00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:39,600 Speaker 5: three and three against the spread. So if you add 446 00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:41,840 Speaker 5: in the short line and the home that is an 447 00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:45,880 Speaker 5: eighty two percent cover rate by six points, including thirteen 448 00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:48,919 Speaker 5: and seven straight up on the money line. So not 449 00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:52,320 Speaker 5: your traditional RA RA spot, but the home dog the 450 00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:54,439 Speaker 5: short dog there. I love it, So give me the 451 00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:55,679 Speaker 5: Steelers plus two. 452 00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:56,040 Speaker 2: And a half. 453 00:21:56,560 --> 00:21:59,840 Speaker 3: So despite the fact and starts brock Purty made and 454 00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:02,720 Speaker 3: starts he finished. I must add the Niners did not 455 00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:05,479 Speaker 3: lose a game, but Brandon's going against him Week one 456 00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:06,680 Speaker 3: on the road against Pittsburgh. 457 00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:07,960 Speaker 2: Luke, what can you add to this? 458 00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:09,240 Speaker 3: You're on Pittsburgh as well. 459 00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:11,199 Speaker 1: Yeah, so I'm gonna go with Pittsburgh as well. And 460 00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:14,119 Speaker 1: it does feel like a lot of people are starting 461 00:22:14,119 --> 00:22:17,880 Speaker 1: to hop on the Steelers bandwagon, which worries you. Oh, 462 00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:21,280 Speaker 1: it does worry me, but it's fine. Where Like they 463 00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:26,359 Speaker 1: had an amazing preseason pick. It looked fantastic, but brock Purty, 464 00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:30,760 Speaker 1: like I genuinely don't understand how he is playing at 465 00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:33,040 Speaker 1: a level to where he can start an NFL game, Like, 466 00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:36,240 Speaker 1: the guy had elbow surgery not too long ago, and 467 00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:39,120 Speaker 1: we also saw his elbow blow out in a playoff 468 00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:41,800 Speaker 1: game less than a year ago, and you watched him 469 00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:43,879 Speaker 1: play in the preseason, and there were probably there were 470 00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:45,719 Speaker 1: some videos I saw in NFL Twitter that were like 471 00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:49,080 Speaker 1: overblowing like arcs on short passes because he didn't have 472 00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:51,680 Speaker 1: the arm strength, which like I kind of buy because 473 00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:54,600 Speaker 1: it just I'm not a doctor, but it just doesn't 474 00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:56,480 Speaker 1: make sense to me. And I think if the Niners 475 00:22:56,520 --> 00:22:58,520 Speaker 1: go to the Super Bowl, I think it will be 476 00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:01,760 Speaker 1: behind Sam Donald and I have them in my currole 477 00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:05,760 Speaker 1: pick behind Sam Donal who looked phenomenal and has had 478 00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:08,239 Speaker 1: a bad break on all the teams that he's been 479 00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:10,280 Speaker 1: playing for and this is the first good team he's 480 00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:13,919 Speaker 1: been on. But back to the pick, we have Party, 481 00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:16,800 Speaker 1: who thirty nine percent of his passes were at or 482 00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:20,399 Speaker 1: behind the line of scrimmage, and the Steelers defense without TJ. 483 00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:23,800 Speaker 1: Watt were number one against EPA on passes from at 484 00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:26,200 Speaker 1: or behind the line scrimmer last year. Now you get TJ. Watt, 485 00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:29,320 Speaker 1: get all the factors Brandon spoke to, and it's just 486 00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:32,520 Speaker 1: a Steelers team that is up and coming against a 487 00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:35,120 Speaker 1: Niners team that it's just a bad spot for them 488 00:23:35,119 --> 00:23:37,240 Speaker 1: with a quarterback I just have too many question marks 489 00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:39,439 Speaker 1: to put trust in. 490 00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:42,600 Speaker 3: Well, I'll tell you why the Brock Party thing is 491 00:23:42,600 --> 00:23:46,560 Speaker 3: blowing you away, because since they drafted Alex Smith, they've 492 00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:50,200 Speaker 3: had Smith, they've had Kaepernick, they've had Jimmy Garoppolo, They've 493 00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:52,040 Speaker 3: just found a way to plug and play. They drafted 494 00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:55,000 Speaker 3: Trey Lance. It hasn't become a problem for them over 495 00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:57,639 Speaker 3: the last decade. Maybe there's the time it will. 496 00:23:57,800 --> 00:24:00,480 Speaker 1: And I and all of those quarterbacks, so kind of 497 00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:03,040 Speaker 1: like Diamonds and the Roughs, and yeah, Donald has all 498 00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:05,360 Speaker 1: the time in the world, where like it didn't work 499 00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:08,760 Speaker 1: with Trey Lance and Donald traits wise, he has them all. 500 00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:09,680 Speaker 2: Who knows. 501 00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:11,399 Speaker 1: I don't even feel like it's that hot of a 502 00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:13,240 Speaker 1: take that if they went to this role behind Sam 503 00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:14,320 Speaker 1: Donald that would be hot take. 504 00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:17,879 Speaker 3: But Amos said they would bring in Philip Rivers to 505 00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:18,840 Speaker 3: start the Super Bowl. 506 00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:20,160 Speaker 2: Of course it's not a hot take. 507 00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:24,280 Speaker 3: Sorry, I'm just getting upset because that was a thing 508 00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:27,159 Speaker 3: that was brought up. Sorry, Luke, I got upset there 509 00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:31,120 Speaker 3: for a second Philip Rivers and the Super Bowl. Yeah right, Okay, 510 00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:33,359 Speaker 3: Dubundo take us home. You're gonna go to Sunday Night 511 00:24:33,359 --> 00:24:34,840 Speaker 3: Football for our final best bet. 512 00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:37,720 Speaker 6: Did not have Sam Donald and Philip Rivers discussion in 513 00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:41,280 Speaker 6: the Week one pot I'm gonna go with the Dallas 514 00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:44,520 Speaker 6: Cowboys minus three. I do not love that. As we were 515 00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:47,080 Speaker 6: recording this podcast, Tyron Smith just popped up on the 516 00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:51,400 Speaker 6: injury report, uh, with a potential issue. But I'm gonna 517 00:24:51,400 --> 00:24:52,960 Speaker 6: assume he's he's going to be good to go for 518 00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:53,640 Speaker 6: Sunday night. 519 00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:54,400 Speaker 2: Uh. 520 00:24:54,440 --> 00:24:57,920 Speaker 6: This Dallas team probably the team I'm buying the most 521 00:24:58,080 --> 00:25:00,720 Speaker 6: relative to the market in the entirely their win total 522 00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:02,920 Speaker 6: you can find and over ten at minus one thirty five. 523 00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:04,920 Speaker 6: Love that, but I like them in this spot against 524 00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:07,320 Speaker 6: the Giants. Look, the last time we saw the Giants 525 00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:10,840 Speaker 6: play football, they closed an eight point road underdog in 526 00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:14,000 Speaker 6: Philadelphia in the Divisional round of the playoffs and got 527 00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:18,600 Speaker 6: absolutely waxed in that game. And now you know, if 528 00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:20,480 Speaker 6: you were to just say, okay, we're gonna flip home field, 529 00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:22,520 Speaker 6: I didn't have a material difference between the two teams, 530 00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:24,679 Speaker 6: but if you flip home field, that would get you 531 00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:27,040 Speaker 6: two about what this number is right now, with Dallas 532 00:25:27,119 --> 00:25:29,560 Speaker 6: laying three and a half at some books, but currently 533 00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:31,760 Speaker 6: a minus three at bet MGM, and of course the 534 00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:35,719 Speaker 6: almighty three very important bett there. Get the minus three 535 00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:37,720 Speaker 6: minus one fifteen is out there as. 536 00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:41,040 Speaker 3: We speak, but real quick with the Smith news, any 537 00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:43,560 Speaker 3: chance it gets under three to two and a half, or. 538 00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:46,240 Speaker 6: If he were ruled out, maybe it gets to a three. 539 00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:48,080 Speaker 6: I don't think he's worth more than a half point. 540 00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:49,880 Speaker 6: But even though you know one of the best tackles 541 00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:50,520 Speaker 6: in the NFL. 542 00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:53,240 Speaker 2: I really love. 543 00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:55,520 Speaker 6: The offseason editions that Dallas has made. I think they're 544 00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:58,880 Speaker 6: going to be all over Daniel Jones. The Giants offensive 545 00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:01,440 Speaker 6: line remains the biggest weakness I think for their their 546 00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:04,200 Speaker 6: offense here, and I have major question marks about it. 547 00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:07,719 Speaker 6: Dallas's pressure rate last year was five percent better than 548 00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:12,000 Speaker 6: every other team in the NFL. They improved their defensive 549 00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:14,199 Speaker 6: line in the run stopping perspective. They went out and 550 00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:18,120 Speaker 6: got Gilmour to be a corner two. The Giants, for me, offensively, 551 00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:21,399 Speaker 6: still don't have a reliable receiver. And I know that 552 00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:23,280 Speaker 6: people have liked some of the additions, and people are 553 00:26:23,320 --> 00:26:25,800 Speaker 6: excited about, you know, the speed of high it, and 554 00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:28,440 Speaker 6: you know like they're gonna try to you know, Renaissance, 555 00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:32,200 Speaker 6: you know, Paris Campbell. But there's just no consistent option 556 00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:34,000 Speaker 6: for me and this offense. And so it's going to 557 00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:36,760 Speaker 6: have to be more Mike Kafka, Brian Dable, dark magic 558 00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:39,040 Speaker 6: to make this offense work. And I just think it's 559 00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:42,119 Speaker 6: gonna be really hard to pull off against the Dallas 560 00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:44,479 Speaker 6: team that's going to live in their backfield the entirety 561 00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:46,919 Speaker 6: of the night and probably play from the front and 562 00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:49,560 Speaker 6: then look, you know, the biggest question mark with Dallas 563 00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:53,760 Speaker 6: is their offensive coordinator situation. After you know, Kellen Moore leaves. 564 00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:58,160 Speaker 6: I think because we've all decided we don't like Mike McCarthy, 565 00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:01,000 Speaker 6: we have attributed all of the bat things to the 566 00:27:01,080 --> 00:27:04,040 Speaker 6: Dallas offense last year to him and then given all 567 00:27:04,080 --> 00:27:06,439 Speaker 6: the good things to Kellen Moore. Kellen Moore did not 568 00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:09,520 Speaker 6: do a great job. I thought last season as offensive coordinator, 569 00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:13,120 Speaker 6: way too much conservative play calling on second and long especially, 570 00:27:13,119 --> 00:27:15,359 Speaker 6: they were one of the heaviest run teams in the 571 00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:18,920 Speaker 6: league on second and long, way too much to see Elliot. Okay, 572 00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:21,600 Speaker 6: maybe that's McCarthy, but then they get into the situation 573 00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:26,000 Speaker 6: where McCarthy's traditional sense has been that he's two pass heavy. 574 00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:29,040 Speaker 6: But I think given their personnel and given the addition 575 00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:32,440 Speaker 6: to Brandon Cooks and Ceedee Lamb and Michael Gallup a 576 00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:35,040 Speaker 6: year off, the ACL maybe maybe has more juice than 577 00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:37,159 Speaker 6: he showed last year. This is a team built to 578 00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:39,879 Speaker 6: throw the ball, and Dak Prescott threw into tight windows 579 00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:42,359 Speaker 6: more than any quarterback in the NFL last year. Again, 580 00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:45,920 Speaker 6: could be a criticism of Kellen Moore, who designed this offense. 581 00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:48,959 Speaker 6: So I think that for all Mike McCarthy's flaws as 582 00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:52,240 Speaker 6: a game manager and as a head coach, I think 583 00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:54,600 Speaker 6: he deserves to shot here his offensive coordinator or as 584 00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:57,160 Speaker 6: the main guy calling the plays. And I think it's 585 00:27:57,160 --> 00:27:59,600 Speaker 6: going to be a boon for this Dallas offense to 586 00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:01,800 Speaker 6: throw the ball. More so, I think the ceilings higher 587 00:28:01,800 --> 00:28:04,960 Speaker 6: for Dallas, and I love them Lang three here again, 588 00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:06,439 Speaker 6: three and a half is a pass for me. I 589 00:28:06,520 --> 00:28:08,800 Speaker 6: know how good divisional home underdogs have been. I know 590 00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:11,560 Speaker 6: the trend, but I'm going against it. I'm going with 591 00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:12,800 Speaker 6: Dallas minus three. 592 00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:13,600 Speaker 2: Okay, gentlemen. 593 00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:16,280 Speaker 3: More memories are made when you are there for live 594 00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:19,360 Speaker 3: NFL action and when you need tickets, our friends at 595 00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:23,600 Speaker 3: Ticketmaster have got you covered. As the official marketplace of 596 00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:26,840 Speaker 3: the National Football League, Ticketmaster gives you more ways to 597 00:28:27,040 --> 00:28:30,359 Speaker 3: find your perfect seat. Their interactive seat map gives you 598 00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:32,960 Speaker 3: three hundred and sixty degree previews of your section to 599 00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:36,120 Speaker 3: make sure you have the best view of those pivotal 600 00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:39,239 Speaker 3: plays and if your plans change, Ticketmaster gives you more 601 00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:41,480 Speaker 3: flexibility to sell or transfer your tickets. 602 00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:43,520 Speaker 2: Plus mobile tickets. 603 00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:45,720 Speaker 3: Make getting in on game day a breeze, and you 604 00:28:45,760 --> 00:28:49,760 Speaker 3: can even customize your Ticketmaster app to rep your team's colors. 605 00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:54,200 Speaker 3: Find tickets today at ticketmaster dot com. Slash NFL Before 606 00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:57,960 Speaker 3: we go, Brandon Anderson a week two look ahead spot 607 00:28:58,280 --> 00:29:00,680 Speaker 3: that you have circled that you'd like to give now 608 00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:03,840 Speaker 3: before everyone overreacts and loses their minds after week one. 609 00:29:04,080 --> 00:29:04,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly. 610 00:29:04,840 --> 00:29:06,560 Speaker 5: So the goal of the look ahead, of course, is 611 00:29:06,600 --> 00:29:08,960 Speaker 5: to grab a line for next week. Those lines are 612 00:29:09,040 --> 00:29:11,000 Speaker 5: up now, we want to get one that we think 613 00:29:11,080 --> 00:29:12,760 Speaker 5: is going to be on the move by Sunday night 614 00:29:12,840 --> 00:29:16,280 Speaker 5: once those lines all reopen, get some of that closing value, 615 00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:21,080 Speaker 5: that sweet sweet CLV to add to our portfolio. That said, 616 00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:23,200 Speaker 5: this is the one week of the year. I'm gonna 617 00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:25,760 Speaker 5: go a little cautiously on the lookhead because again, we 618 00:29:25,760 --> 00:29:28,080 Speaker 5: don't have information about these teams yet, and we're gonna 619 00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:30,040 Speaker 5: get a lot of it on Sunday, So I think, 620 00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:32,720 Speaker 5: don't go too crazy on a look ahead here. One 621 00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:35,280 Speaker 5: that I do like and we'll play is the Atlanta Falcons. 622 00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:38,040 Speaker 5: My Falcons, just give me the money line home against 623 00:29:38,080 --> 00:29:41,320 Speaker 5: the Packers. It's minus one ten. If you need the points, 624 00:29:41,360 --> 00:29:43,400 Speaker 5: I see a minus one and a half. Prefer the 625 00:29:43,400 --> 00:29:46,040 Speaker 5: money line, but don't mind the minus one and a half. Look, 626 00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:49,480 Speaker 5: I already feel like we talked about the Falcons cruising 627 00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:52,520 Speaker 5: past the Panthers. We're taking them over the minus three 628 00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:54,720 Speaker 5: and a half. We probably expect a big win here. 629 00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:57,800 Speaker 5: This is kind of the hot nerd team this year, right. 630 00:29:57,920 --> 00:30:00,560 Speaker 5: Reminds me of the way everyone got excited the Eagles 631 00:30:00,560 --> 00:30:02,800 Speaker 5: a year ago. The Falcons were only two and a 632 00:30:02,800 --> 00:30:06,040 Speaker 5: half point favorites against the Panthers. That jumped to and 633 00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:08,440 Speaker 5: then passed the key number to where we're getting at now. 634 00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:10,960 Speaker 5: So I wouldn't be surprised if Atlanta has a big 635 00:30:11,000 --> 00:30:13,560 Speaker 5: week do we start to get some steam there now. 636 00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:15,920 Speaker 5: On the other side, I kind of am with the 637 00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:17,840 Speaker 5: two of you guys on the Packers. The one thing 638 00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:20,160 Speaker 5: that pushed me a little bit away as a caution there. 639 00:30:20,720 --> 00:30:23,320 Speaker 5: The big thing that Green Bay does not do well 640 00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:26,400 Speaker 5: is defend the run, and the only thing that Chicago 641 00:30:26,560 --> 00:30:30,080 Speaker 5: does do well is run the football. If the Packers 642 00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:33,120 Speaker 5: lose in Chicago, and I don't think they will, but 643 00:30:33,200 --> 00:30:34,240 Speaker 5: I think it's possible. 644 00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:37,040 Speaker 2: If they lose, it's because. 645 00:30:36,800 --> 00:30:39,480 Speaker 5: Jordan Love wasn't good and now we have that information, 646 00:30:40,120 --> 00:30:42,280 Speaker 5: or it's because the Bears ran all over them and 647 00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:46,000 Speaker 5: we have that information, and if that happens, the Falcons 648 00:30:46,040 --> 00:30:49,080 Speaker 5: are number three and run DVOA. The Packers defense is 649 00:30:49,160 --> 00:30:53,040 Speaker 5: number thirty one and run defense DVOA. That's a huge 650 00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:56,400 Speaker 5: matchup advantage. I'm gonna like no matter what happens. But 651 00:30:56,520 --> 00:30:59,400 Speaker 5: if we find out after watching week one that the 652 00:30:59,400 --> 00:31:02,960 Speaker 5: Packers don't look very good, then i think this line 653 00:31:03,000 --> 00:31:05,000 Speaker 5: gets past three in a hurry and we lose a 654 00:31:05,040 --> 00:31:07,640 Speaker 5: lot of value here. So I'm not too worried about 655 00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:09,880 Speaker 5: the line moving toward the Packers too far. It's not 656 00:31:09,920 --> 00:31:12,160 Speaker 5: going to get to a minus three on the road, 657 00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:14,960 Speaker 5: So give me the Falcons minus one and a half 658 00:31:15,000 --> 00:31:16,800 Speaker 5: if you need it, But I'll take the money line 659 00:31:16,880 --> 00:31:18,520 Speaker 5: minus one ten for week two. 660 00:31:18,680 --> 00:31:22,960 Speaker 3: All right, four Luke Swayin, Anthony Dbundo, Brandon Anderson, Brendan Laschen. 661 00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:23,880 Speaker 2: That is going to do it. 662 00:31:23,920 --> 00:31:25,800 Speaker 5: For our first Action. 663 00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:30,160 Speaker 3: Network podcast, NFL Week one Best Bets episode were presented 664 00:31:30,200 --> 00:31:34,000 Speaker 3: by Bett MGM. We'll have Joe Galant joining Brandon, Luke 665 00:31:34,080 --> 00:31:37,160 Speaker 3: and myself next week. Best of luck, enjoy the games, 666 00:31:37,240 --> 00:31:38,960 Speaker 3: bet responsibly. 667 00:31:38,600 --> 00:31:39,400 Speaker 2: And thanks for listening. 668 00:31:39,400 --> 00:31:54,400 Speaker 4: We'll catch you next week. 669 00:31:55,760 --> 00:31:59,200 Speaker 6: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. 670 00:31:59,600 --> 00:32:02,440 Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem. 671 00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:05,360 Speaker 6: Help is available twenty four to seven at one eight 672 00:32:05,440 --> 00:32:06,200 Speaker 6: hundred Gambler