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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. I

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Speaker 1: am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: Today is our Week eight team Thursday NFL episode, Feeling

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Speaker 1: Feelings of Melancholy and Sadness that we're at the week

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Speaker 1: eighteen Thursday episode. This is where we will get feedback

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Speaker 1: from the wise guys who listen to the show. They'll

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Speaker 1: give us our sharp calls where we build our moneyline

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Speaker 1: Underdog Round Robin. We will give at our Foxhole Bet,

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Speaker 1: our Big Balls bet of the Week. We will narrow

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Speaker 1: down our picks for the final time for the free

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Speaker 1: to play Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football

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Speaker 1: Pick Them contest. As our pal Colin Cowhard likes to say,

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Speaker 1: there's a sea of money out there, because there's a

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Speaker 1: sea of money out there. If you want to follow

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Speaker 1: along with our official bets, you can check them out

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Speaker 1: on the contest website Favorites dot Actionnetwork dot com, where

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Speaker 1: we lock them in before kickoff on Sunday. If you

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Speaker 1: prefer using the award winning Action app, you can track

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Speaker 1: all the bets. My co host Simon and I lock

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Speaker 1: in by following two accounts, the Phase five and the

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Speaker 1: Favorites podcast. Now let's bring in my cost my companion,

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Speaker 1: MI compadre, my BFF, professional, better Sigmon, hunter Eto, It's

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Speaker 1: all I am in, Hello, lot Chud. I'm a little sad.

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Speaker 1: I gotta say, like saying all this stuff for the

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Speaker 1: last time. We put so much freaking energy into what

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Speaker 1: the season is going to be like, and this contest,

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Speaker 1: specifically doing it for the first time under our own

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Speaker 1: banner with bet three six five, having twelve thousand people

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Speaker 1: sign up, these stakes to me felt higher than ever

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Speaker 1: because we were compete in real time with our friends

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Speaker 1: and listeners. So I'm a little bummed feeling like as

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Speaker 1: much as hard as it is today. When I was

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Speaker 1: doing my final prep for the show on our Thursday show,

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Speaker 1: it felt a little bit like the end of school,

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Speaker 1: like prepping for your last final. I'm just a little

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Speaker 1: doing a little bittersweet.

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Speaker 2: I'm honestly happy.

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Speaker 3: It's just it's a lot of pressure of the show,

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Speaker 3: and like you said, we had our own conscious this year,

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Speaker 3: so the goal stayed the same. It's like, okay, can

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Speaker 3: look like idiots can't go thirty five and forty five

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Speaker 3: and luckily we had another really good winning year. The

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Speaker 3: fans were happy, the show grow and we are about

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Speaker 3: to give away would you say.

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Speaker 2: Eighty thousand dollars this Sunday?

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Speaker 3: So pretty surreal feeling knowing that we just ran a

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Speaker 3: free contest and now we're about to give away eighty

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Speaker 3: thousand dollars on site.

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Speaker 1: That's right, that's rights. As a reminder, thanks to our sponsors.

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Speaker 1: The Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five.

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Speaker 1: in present in Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia,

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Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one

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Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in

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Speaker 1: Iowa terms, conditioned restrictions apply. I should say, by the way,

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Speaker 1: we usually dominate the playoffs, So just because the contest

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Speaker 1: is over doesn't mean we're going to stop having our

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Speaker 1: favorite bets, doesn't mean we're going to start making those bets,

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Speaker 1: doesn't mean we're going to stop talking about those bets.

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Speaker 1: In the podcast, we go all the way through, and

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Speaker 1: we tend to have a really success successful playoff season.

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Speaker 1: Week eighteen is approaching, though, opportunities all over the board.

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Speaker 1: I'm feeling good about where we're gonna land. But before

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Speaker 1: we get to it, let's hear some sharp calls.

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Speaker 2: Hello, who's there. I'm talking rain.

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Speaker 1: Rain telephone range. Somebody's saying, maybe what you do man?

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Speaker 3: All think that's pretty eas We'll start with the Saturday

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Speaker 3: games and we'll go to the Sunday games.

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Speaker 2: We talk a little bit about that Pittsburgh Ravens game.

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Speaker 3: We kind of know what to deal with it. We said,

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Speaker 3: we'll probably just end up taking the dog. Most pros

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Speaker 3: I talked to the same view as we do. Chad,

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Speaker 3: you just take the dog. We don't really care who

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Speaker 3: the quarterbacks are. We don't care who's playing who's not playing. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: it's the Ravens backups trying to play spoiler against a

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Speaker 3: really desperate Pittsburgh team. So if you're wondering who the

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Speaker 3: pros like in this game, I think you can kind

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Speaker 3: of tell if you go and look at the splits.

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Speaker 3: All the money, all the bets right now are on

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Speaker 3: this Ravens team. And they were plus four or plus

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Speaker 3: four and a half last night when I went to bed,

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Speaker 3: I woke up this morning they're back down to plus three.

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Speaker 3: Not that shocking, but just know it's a public dog.

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Speaker 3: Me and Chad talk all the time. Be careful when

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Speaker 3: you're betting public dogs. This is one of the bigger

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Speaker 3: public dogs of the week, this Ravens team. The next

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Speaker 3: one they gave me chaw, we're gonna getrough, for sure.

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Speaker 3: I like the Colts. Chad like Houston. I thought it

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Speaker 3: was gonna be all Pros all over the Colts. It's

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Speaker 3: pretty split, honestly, Like I know some really sharp groups

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Speaker 3: who like Houston.

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Speaker 2: They liked Houston at plus one, they liked it a

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Speaker 2: plus one and a half.

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Speaker 3: I'm honestly shocked by it just feels like such a

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Speaker 3: trap spot that back Houston so that's definitely a game

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Speaker 3: we'll break down.

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Speaker 2: It's it's split.

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Speaker 3: It's fifty to fifty from what I've one of the

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Speaker 3: guys I've talked to the there's some pros like me

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Speaker 3: who love the Colts in the spot. There's other pros

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Speaker 3: who love of Houston, they love CJ, and they love

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Speaker 3: the spot for them.

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Speaker 2: Let's keep it moving.

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Speaker 3: Titans another public dog we like. Again, not the best

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Speaker 3: spot to be and it's the pros like it. The

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Speaker 3: public likes it. You know, I read Evans trends. It

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Speaker 3: makes me feel a little better about backing these kind

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Speaker 3: of dogs in these spots, these teams playing spoilers. I

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Speaker 3: don't know if you saw that Vverabel interview Chad. Someone

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Speaker 3: asked them about tanking and the look of disgust and

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Speaker 3: rage that filled him where it's like, this is like

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Speaker 3: a real football guy. He talked about it like losing

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Speaker 3: is the worst feeling ever. If you're a true competitor,

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Speaker 3: it eats at you. Losing it really does eat away

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Speaker 3: at you. And he just like the look on his face.

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Speaker 4: Because it sucks to lose, Gentry, It fucking sucks. Losing awful.

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Speaker 4: That's why I want to win. Because you don't sleep.

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Speaker 4: You want to win for the players at Buster Tail.

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Speaker 2: That's it.

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Speaker 3: It's I love Rabel so much. I'm so happy that

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Speaker 3: we both are on the side. Even though it's the

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Speaker 3: public dog. It's just I love Tennessee.

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Speaker 2: I think it's moved now from five and a half

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Speaker 2: a lot of books out of four and a half.

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Speaker 3: I don't care that it's a public dog. I love Tennessee. Again,

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Speaker 3: we really didn't touch much on I still don't know

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Speaker 3: how I really feel about it because it's so chalky.

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Speaker 3: But talk to some really smart guys who love Detroit

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Speaker 3: Lions this week. They love them in this spot and

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Speaker 3: it's hard for me to get there, but maybe you

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Speaker 3: can convince me to go in Detroit. But I really

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Speaker 3: didn't have much opinion on that one. I know Nick

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Speaker 3: Mullens is now the quarterback for the Vikings, but still

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Speaker 3: didn't really have much of opinion on.

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Speaker 1: That made me like the Vikings more.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and you've got three and a half now, so

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Speaker 3: that's when we'll definitely talk about again. We both liked Atlanta.

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Speaker 3: They moved from three to three and a half, which

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Speaker 3: made me a little scared, and a couple of their pros.

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Speaker 3: I talked a little scared because they love Atlanta as well.

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Speaker 3: We all thought this was going to go to two

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Speaker 3: and a half. Now it's up to three and a half,

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Speaker 3: which usually is an ideal if you're being a dog,

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Speaker 3: because that means some smart money is coming on the

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Speaker 3: Saints as a favorite and they need Atlanta money.

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Speaker 2: Pretty interesting numbers moved to where it has.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, another public dog we like. Talk to some pros

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Speaker 3: who love green Bay. They love green Bay in the

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Speaker 3: spot really yeah, and I can't get there with them though.

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Speaker 2: I just disagree with it. And it's the same thing

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Speaker 2: as last week.

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Speaker 3: I knew some really big time pros who came in

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Speaker 3: very heavy on Atlanta last week against the Bears. They

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Speaker 3: moved the number from three to two and a half,

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Speaker 3: and they were dead wrong. Like Atlanta was never in

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Speaker 3: that game for real against the Bears. I just think

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Speaker 3: people haven't adjusted to this Bears team and how much

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Speaker 3: better they've been down down the stretch here, Like that's

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Speaker 3: just how football is. It's such a momentum sport. It

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Speaker 3: reminds me a lot of Detroit last year. Detroit started

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Speaker 3: off really slow and then absolutely took off the end

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Speaker 3: of the season, and they carried it to this season.

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Speaker 3: I think that's what Bears fans are assuming lapping this year.

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Speaker 3: It's like, how do we go against this momentum? Like

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Speaker 3: I just I just totally disagree with the play on

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Speaker 3: green Bay. But I get where they're coming from. I

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Speaker 3: understand that the Bears were buying a little high, right,

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Speaker 3: like this is this is the peak value they've had

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Speaker 3: all season. If you go through their schedule, like every

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Speaker 3: every week, it's kind of been building towards this, this

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Speaker 3: team and this number. And you know, say they hadn't

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Speaker 3: won the last two weeks like they had, this probably

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Speaker 3: would be four four and a half. That's how well

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Speaker 3: Green Bay's been playing. But yeah, I just I just

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Speaker 3: totally disagree with them. It was a lot of back

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Speaker 3: and forth. I disagree with that one and then the

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Speaker 3: last one the game. Everyone wants to talk about a game,

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Speaker 3: We're gonna be talking about a lot this Dolphins Miami game.

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Speaker 3: The pros love the Dolphins. Like if you go through

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Speaker 3: all the splits, the stats, I wish Evyan was here,

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Speaker 3: but I don't think Josh Allen's covered or won a

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Speaker 3: night game and like five or six straight like ats

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Speaker 3: like he's just struggled at night.

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Speaker 2: For some reason.

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Speaker 3: This Spills team has the Dolphins. I believe there are

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Speaker 3: seven and one straight up at home this season. Like

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Speaker 3: I totally get the pros and all the stats that

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Speaker 3: are thrown at me about why you want to back

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Speaker 3: Miami a spot, but the injuries, Like I just can't

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Speaker 3: get over the injuries they've had and how big of

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Speaker 3: a deal it is that Wattle is banked up, most

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Speaker 3: arts banked up, And I don't know, it's just a

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Speaker 3: game that we're definitely gonna dive into.

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Speaker 2: But uh, they didn't push me off my stands.

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Speaker 3: I just I want to I want to back the

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Speaker 3: Bills like I wanted to get there on Miami. It's

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Speaker 3: just I can't do it. It's just the whole scenario

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Speaker 3: of this. It just feels like this is a Bill's win.

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Speaker 3: But even though I am backing the Bills, I told

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Speaker 3: we're gonna talk about hedging. But like the dream scenario

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Speaker 3: is here. People, we got a great number on the

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Speaker 3: Bills to win the division. Now we get Miami at

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Speaker 3: home as a dog. It's just such an easy hedch

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Speaker 3: taking the plus three. If you're figuring out Trunt, know

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Speaker 3: what to do. But I again, it's the final week

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Speaker 3: of the season, so there's gonna be a lot of disagreement.

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Speaker 3: I was shocked about how much the pro always love

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Speaker 3: the home teams this week.

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Speaker 2: But maybe you know Evan has some stats about that.

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Speaker 3: But I didn't realize that I love so many road

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Speaker 3: teams this week until really talking to a lot of guys.

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Speaker 3: I was like, wow, I do love a lot of

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Speaker 3: road teams this week. So a lot of disagreement people.

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Speaker 1: A couple things about that. Number one, Evan did give

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Speaker 1: us the stat earlier this week about road teams and

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Speaker 1: the fact that in this scenario, home teams in the

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Speaker 1: division since two thousand and fifteen are only covering or

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Speaker 1: cover at a forty seven percent clip. So you want

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Speaker 1: to be on the road team in this case, I

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Speaker 1: will tell you that. Also, we're going to talk about

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Speaker 1: some other stats that Stucky noted. The sweet spot might

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Speaker 1: be finding the road team that is out of the playoffs,

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Speaker 1: because Stucky has a great stat that I want to

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Speaker 1: get to year, which is hold on before let me

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Speaker 1: remind everybody. Let me remind everybody. You can catch every

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Speaker 1: episode of the Favorites live on YouTube for those enjoying

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Speaker 1: on YouTube. Don't forget to give us a like and

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Speaker 1: subscribe to the Action Network you tube page. Okay from Stucky,

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Speaker 1: it's a great stat Since nineteen ninety, eliminated teams that

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Speaker 1: are playing teams that need to win over the final

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Speaker 1: two weeks of the regular season are sixty one percent

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Speaker 1: against the spread this week. The eliminated teams that fit

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Speaker 1: this trend the Panthers, who we like, the Titans, who

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Speaker 1: we like, the Bears who we like. Also the Cardinals

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Speaker 1: who you don't like. I'm agnostic, but that's number one.

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Speaker 1: That's number one. So then think about this like, we'd

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Speaker 1: want to back at least the Bears in this scenario

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Speaker 1: because they are the team that fits that then diagram

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Speaker 1: of road team that is eliminated against the home team

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Speaker 1: that has something to play for. Right, we love the Bears.

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Speaker 1: We're going to dig deeper into that number one. Number two,

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Speaker 1: I just want to say one thing about the Ravens

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Speaker 1: being a public dog, because it is worth noting. Like Tomlin,

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Speaker 1: this is when you fade Tomlin. Tomlin is a favorite

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Speaker 1: fifteen and twenty six against the spread thirty seven percent.

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Speaker 1: Talin is a favorite of a field goal and more

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Speaker 1: coming off a win just forty percent. On the road

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Speaker 1: is a field goal or more coming off a win

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Speaker 1: twenty nine percent. So this feels like the letdown spot

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Speaker 1: in which you want to fade. Mike Tomlin, I'm gonna.

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Speaker 2: Cut you off because I laugh at that all the time.

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Speaker 1: All Right, we're going to dig into all this. It's funny.

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Speaker 1: I actually didn't even put the Colts and the Texans,

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Speaker 1: the Bills and the Dolphins in our script because I

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Speaker 1: didn't think we'd find any agreement on the Colts and

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Speaker 1: the Texans, so it wasn't. And I don't want to

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Speaker 1: bet the Colt. I don't want to bet the Texans

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Speaker 1: now as a favorite, and I don't want to bet

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Speaker 1: the Colts as a short dog. So to me, that

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Speaker 1: game is a board that's like they're a one point

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Speaker 1: home dog.

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Speaker 3: Go go to the action app, Chad your favorite thing,

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Speaker 3: Go click on that Indie Houston game, scroll down, and

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Speaker 3: then tell me what the splits are. Let me know

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Speaker 3: what the handle is, let me know what the money percentages.

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Speaker 3: Let's see how this makes you feel.

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Speaker 1: Well, I can't do it right now because I got

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Speaker 1: to read some more promos.

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Speaker 3: Well, let me hit you with a Chad, why don't

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Speaker 3: we do it when we get to the game.

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Speaker 2: I'm a company man talking about this Houston Colts game.

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Speaker 2: It is the bets.

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Speaker 3: Ninety six percent of the money are on the road

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Speaker 3: favorite Houston Texans, So hopefully that convinces people here. You

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Speaker 3: just long term Houston Texans is a sucker bet, and

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Speaker 3: I'm with Chad. If you got it as a dog,

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Speaker 3: you got a good number, no worries. But if you're

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Speaker 3: trying to bet this right now minus one and a half,

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Speaker 3: it's a bad bet. It's just a long term loser

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Speaker 3: bet and a road favorite in the divisional game.

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Speaker 1: Simon, this is why people want to come see us live,

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Speaker 1: and we have a other live show that we get

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Speaker 1: to promote. We're doing it again January fourteenth, Wild Card Sunday.

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Speaker 1: It's a holiday weekend, folks, so you can come out.

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Speaker 1: Come out to the Bar Shepherd and the Knucklehead, Hoboken,

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Speaker 1: New Jersey, doors open at four live show at seven thirty.

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Speaker 1: Free entry, free drinks, free hanging with me and Simon.

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Speaker 1: Then you're going to watch the live show at seven

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Speaker 1: thirty that night. It's fantastic RSVP. In the description for

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Speaker 1: this show, and the YouTube page. Also a watch party Saturday,

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Speaker 1: January thirteenth, same location, Me Kerner, Stuckey, Raybond, the Whole

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Speaker 1: Gang four pm January thirteenth, RSVP for that as well.

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Speaker 1: An It's a wild Card Action weekend with our friends

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Speaker 1: at bet three six five, free entry, free drinks for

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Speaker 1: all of it. Come hang with all of us throughout

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Speaker 1: the entire weekend. All right, let's start narrowing down these picks.

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Speaker 1: We got to get to Foxhole, we got to get

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Speaker 1: to big Balls. We got a lot of other things

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Speaker 1: to do. It's interesting to me all the games that

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Speaker 1: we love are getting the majority of the money right now,

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Speaker 1: so it's going to be hard to find a foxhole

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Speaker 1: when everything we like is everything that everybody else likes.

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Speaker 1: Tampa Bay A Carolina Carolina is now four and a

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Speaker 1: half point dog. We liked it at five and a half.

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Speaker 1: We're sorry we're making people pick Carolina again. I still

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Speaker 1: like Carolina in this spot. We have a lot of

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Speaker 1: good intel in our favor, including the stat I just

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Speaker 1: read above from Stuckey. We are fading Baker, who is

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Speaker 1: terrible as a favorite of more than a field goal

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Speaker 1: twenty nine percent. Todd Bowles is just as bad. The

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Speaker 1: luck rankings are on our side, Carolina the least lucky

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Speaker 1: team in the NFL Tampa Bay top five. Like, it's

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Speaker 1: very possible this could be a big balls or foxhole.

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Speaker 1: I don't think it needs to be because we've done

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Speaker 1: this to so many people, so many times. But I

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Speaker 1: still think Carolina to me is in consideration for our

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Speaker 1: final five.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, probably one of the grossest bets you'll make this week.

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Speaker 3: I totally understand people hate it. The pushback our loyal

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Speaker 3: listeners let us know where two and five this season,

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Speaker 3: making them one of our fave fives.

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Speaker 2: Which is just so typical of this show.

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Speaker 3: We've just been trying to catch whatever a falling knife

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Speaker 3: in this bat falling knife that is the Carolina Panthers,

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Speaker 3: who are just terrible and the coaching is terrible. Bryce

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Speaker 3: Young is terrible. I hate it, but like Chad just said,

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Speaker 3: it's just we keep playing the numbers. We keep getting

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Speaker 3: sucked in and can't avoid it.

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Speaker 2: Like I liked it at five and a half, I

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Speaker 2: still like it at four and a half. It's those

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Speaker 2: three and a half three I probably could be caught,

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Speaker 2: like talk to flipping to the.

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Speaker 3: Bucks, But at this number. I just gave you all

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Speaker 3: the stats. It's like, we have to play this long term.

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Speaker 3: This is if you've been playing these numbers, you've been fading.

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Speaker 3: Baker is a big favorite. You just have to keep

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Speaker 3: riding that trend. And this is a trend will ride

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Speaker 3: and you know, I didn't even know those trends back

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Speaker 3: this as hard as they did, but it's just a

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Speaker 3: great spot to take them. So yeah, people in the

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Speaker 3: chats and are not betting Carolina. I get it, but

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Speaker 3: this is.

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Speaker 2: A bet I have to make.

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Speaker 3: And Chad kind of understands that where it's like we

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Speaker 3: bet a certain way and this is part of it.

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Speaker 3: Like we just have to say consistent because we know

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Speaker 3: a long term it's a winner. And here we are

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty fourth talking Carolina.

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Speaker 1: Are we talking about Carolina.

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Speaker 2: In the last week of it? It's the last week until.

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Speaker 1: Next year, in which case we realize, oh my god,

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Speaker 1: all of the edge is going to be on Carolina

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Speaker 1: because everyone wants to fade him. So I guarantee the

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Speaker 1: first three weeks of twenty twenty four, no matter the number,

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Speaker 1: we are going to be betting on Carolina. I can

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Speaker 1: already see it.

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Speaker 3: We'll see I'm not we I thought we had done well.

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Speaker 3: I didn't realize we were that bad in the Phase five.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, me too.

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Speaker 2: I basically we pretty much avoided them.

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Speaker 3: The only time I would let us play them in

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Speaker 3: the contest was when it was Andy Dalton, which I

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Speaker 3: think they lost that Seattle game. But yeah, the just Carolina,

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Speaker 3: between the coach and everything like that. It's just been

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Speaker 3: a total train wreck of a season where next year,

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Speaker 3: you know, you could be like, well, they'll bring on

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Speaker 3: the right coach. Maybe that's why, I mean, you will

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Speaker 3: back them and fix it. It's like, I don't know

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Speaker 3: if they can make a one year fix, like this

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Speaker 3: team has so many issues, such bad ownership. I'll try

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Speaker 3: to keep a mental note Chad, not to let us

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Speaker 3: get sucked in on Carolina next year.

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Speaker 1: Don't let us do it. We need a team to

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Speaker 1: remind us not to do it. Minnesota at Detroit. You

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Speaker 1: brought it up in sharp calls. We liked Minnesota. It

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Speaker 1: was at five and a half, and then it got

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Speaker 1: beat down. Yeah it's at three and a half. I

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Speaker 1: actually like Minnesota more now than I did earlier in

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Speaker 1: the week. Knowing Nick Mullins will be the starter. I

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Speaker 1: think it plays in our favor here. He did blow

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Speaker 1: up this defense and it's a very bad defense against

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Speaker 1: the pass. And I don't know as much as people

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Speaker 1: will believe in Dan Campbell playing to the hilt, could

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Speaker 1: he pull starters in the second half? You know, is

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Speaker 1: there that much to play for? This has a big

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Speaker 1: balls feel to me.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I would say the fear is, you know, I

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Speaker 3: talk to some wise guys, they like Detroit in this spot.

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Speaker 3: Detroit historically has actually been pretty profitable betting as a

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Speaker 3: home favorite, even when they're getting all the public money.

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Speaker 3: Is this the game where the Lions just beat the

401
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Speaker 3: Vikings by thirty because they're so pissed off at the

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Speaker 3: NFL and this has just been a week of raging

403
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Speaker 3: for that Lions team.

404
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Speaker 2: That's the fear, right. We have Campbell.

405
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Speaker 3: I don't know if you've heard his radio hits this week.

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Speaker 3: He's just been amazing. I mean, easily one of my

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Speaker 3: favorite coaches in the league. Where it's just like he

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Speaker 3: cuts through the bullshit. He's on a radio interview and

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Speaker 3: the guy's like trying to talk around going him going

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Speaker 3: for two from the seven, and Cambell's like, say, what

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Speaker 3: you're trying to say.

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Speaker 2: Like when you got the penalty, you move it too.

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Speaker 2: Say it both of you what say it? Say what

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Speaker 2: you want to say. I think from the seven it's

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Speaker 2: a low percentage play. I think your chances of winning

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Speaker 2: are lower than if you kick the extra pro Like

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Speaker 2: you would say it to anybody else. I'm on the radio,

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Speaker 2: say it. I thought it was a reckless decision. Thank you, okay,

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Speaker 2: but you don't regret it.

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Speaker 3: No, And I just love that where it's like he

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Speaker 3: just holds everyone accountable. You know, that's what guys want

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Speaker 3: to see from their head coach being Chad, we're gonna

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Speaker 3: step in front of We're gonna We're gonna back the Vikings,

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Speaker 3: Like Chad said, I like the Vikings already. I was

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Speaker 3: hoping it would get back to three and a half.

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Speaker 3: We know for a fact that Campbell said the starters

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Speaker 3: will play because you know, they have a one in

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Speaker 3: one thousand chants of Dallas and the Eagles both losing

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Speaker 3: and they could still get that two seed. I guess

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Speaker 3: that's the reason why they are playing the starters and

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Speaker 3: why this number has gone back up.

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Speaker 2: But Chad just said it.

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Speaker 3: It's like we can't avoid these kind of games. I

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Speaker 3: know it's tough and it's brutal, but you kind of

435
00:21:52,240 --> 00:21:53,760
Speaker 3: got to hold your nose here and take the three

436
00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:55,880
Speaker 3: and a half and just better on the team's trying

437
00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:58,439
Speaker 3: to play spoiler. It's we already give you guys the

438
00:21:58,440 --> 00:22:01,480
Speaker 3: stats like this is a good week the spoilers, and

439
00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:04,120
Speaker 3: that obviously goes up even more so when the team

440
00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:06,240
Speaker 3: is a dog on the road. Right, is now what

441
00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:10,840
Speaker 3: Evan's staff says. Yep, yeah, Vikings. It's the key number now,

442
00:22:10,960 --> 00:22:13,639
Speaker 3: three and a half. So do you want to make

443
00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:15,000
Speaker 3: a big balls? Do you want to make a fox

444
00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:15,680
Speaker 3: or what are you thinking?

445
00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:23,879
Speaker 1: Big ball? Better than we care? With the Nick Mullins

446
00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:28,800
Speaker 1: and the Minnesota Vikings on the road against a pissed

447
00:22:28,880 --> 00:22:36,000
Speaker 1: off kneecap biiton Detroit Lions team, Simon, this is hitting

448
00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:38,720
Speaker 1: the vent diagram. This is the team that's out of

449
00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:42,400
Speaker 1: contention essentially against the team that kind of has nothing

450
00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:47,320
Speaker 1: left to play for. They're on the road. This is it,

451
00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:51,119
Speaker 1: This is it. I don't tell you we're going with

452
00:22:51,119 --> 00:22:56,359
Speaker 1: the Minnesota Vikings. It hurts, you know, we're gonna do it.

453
00:22:57,119 --> 00:23:00,639
Speaker 1: We're gonna do it Jacksonville, Tennessee. So this was your

454
00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:04,760
Speaker 1: Simon says, still like it to five and a half.

455
00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:07,800
Speaker 1: Could it be Raabel's last game? Could it be Dereck

456
00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:11,120
Speaker 1: Henry's last game? The Jags weapons in the passing game

457
00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:15,399
Speaker 1: are all banged up. The Titans this season four and

458
00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:18,480
Speaker 1: three in home games this year. Their losses are to

459
00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:21,600
Speaker 1: two playoff teams or teams in playoff contention over time,

460
00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:24,639
Speaker 1: and a last second lost to Seattle. You've said it

461
00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:27,359
Speaker 1: all season long. Vrabel as a dog at home is

462
00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:29,800
Speaker 1: when you want to back them. Twenty four, twelve and

463
00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:31,480
Speaker 1: two is a dog of at least a field goal

464
00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:35,280
Speaker 1: in his career. That's why you made it. Simon says,

465
00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:37,000
Speaker 1: we're taking the Titans. They'll be in our final five.

466
00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:40,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, I know, I got a little bit of pushback

467
00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:43,560
Speaker 3: and fans about, yeah, it's not like he's been automatic

468
00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:45,760
Speaker 3: at home as a dog. But if you go back

469
00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:48,480
Speaker 3: and look, a lot of those dog numbers that we

470
00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:50,400
Speaker 3: lost in the contest was at two and a half,

471
00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:52,720
Speaker 3: and a lot of you pushed because most of those

472
00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:56,399
Speaker 3: books were at three. We're not getting the crappy two

473
00:23:56,400 --> 00:23:58,080
Speaker 3: and a half here, right, We're getting the five and

474
00:23:58,160 --> 00:24:00,480
Speaker 3: a half. Like Chad just said, So, what are we

475
00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:02,480
Speaker 3: supposed to do people we have to take this number

476
00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:05,119
Speaker 3: like this is way too big. Chad just told you

477
00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:08,200
Speaker 3: the the Jaguars are banged up. They got a bunch

478
00:24:08,200 --> 00:24:08,600
Speaker 3: of injuries.

479
00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:08,760
Speaker 2: I know.

480
00:24:08,800 --> 00:24:10,680
Speaker 3: They just blew out the Panthers. That should be even

481
00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:12,200
Speaker 3: more of a reason for you guys to want to

482
00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:15,399
Speaker 3: back this team. It's like they're not as good as

483
00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:18,359
Speaker 3: they looked last week. Right, They're not that team this year.

484
00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:20,680
Speaker 3: They've they've struggled in most games. I expect them to

485
00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:24,040
Speaker 3: struggle here against a divisional foe that we just talked about.

486
00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:24,720
Speaker 2: They're pissed off.

487
00:24:24,800 --> 00:24:27,560
Speaker 3: Tennessee Titans are mad and they're gonna be mad all week,

488
00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:29,200
Speaker 3: and I think they're going to take it out on

489
00:24:29,240 --> 00:24:31,760
Speaker 3: this Jaguars team in this final game. Where you know,

490
00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:35,320
Speaker 3: Trevor Lawrence I earned a ton of respect for me

491
00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:37,360
Speaker 3: about how tough the kid is, like the injuries, he's

492
00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:39,040
Speaker 3: dealt with the fact that he's coming back now a

493
00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:42,800
Speaker 3: week later to play incredibly tough, like a guy who

494
00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:44,640
Speaker 3: needs help getting out of bed in the morning, which

495
00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:47,080
Speaker 3: is crazy because he's whatever twenty five, twenty four years

496
00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:49,600
Speaker 3: He's willing to go out there in this game because

497
00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:52,200
Speaker 3: he knows this is for them to win the division,

498
00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:55,119
Speaker 3: like back to back years winning the division for the Jaguars, Like,

499
00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:59,000
Speaker 3: come on, that's that's insane. So respect for him being

500
00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:01,600
Speaker 3: the tough guy going out there doing this, but this

501
00:25:01,640 --> 00:25:03,240
Speaker 3: is putting this team a disadvantage, like.

502
00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:06,080
Speaker 2: A guy is playing wounded. The Titans know that, Like.

503
00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:08,359
Speaker 3: This is just it's just all there to take the

504
00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:10,560
Speaker 3: Titians here team. So I don't care if it's a

505
00:25:10,640 --> 00:25:13,679
Speaker 3: very public dog. I'm all this this Titans team at

506
00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:14,080
Speaker 3: the five.

507
00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:16,119
Speaker 1: And a half, it'll be in the final five. It

508
00:25:16,280 --> 00:25:18,800
Speaker 1: just has to be. Here's another stat. Here's a good stat.

509
00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:22,200
Speaker 1: You want to bet dogs in low total games, which

510
00:25:22,280 --> 00:25:26,639
Speaker 1: this is NFL underdogs in games with totals below forty

511
00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:30,520
Speaker 1: to fifty nine percent against spread since eighteen. In Week eighteen.

512
00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:36,000
Speaker 1: That includes Tennessee, that includes Baltimore, that includes the Jets,

513
00:25:36,760 --> 00:25:40,600
Speaker 1: the Falcons, who we're going to talk about next, the Panthers,

514
00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:44,000
Speaker 1: who we've already talked about so much the chat is enraged,

515
00:25:44,600 --> 00:25:48,800
Speaker 1: the Giants, who we already liked, Kansas City, Cleveland will skip,

516
00:25:49,119 --> 00:25:53,119
Speaker 1: and Denver, who is a late breaking entrant into the conversation.

517
00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:56,879
Speaker 1: So it's a nice trend back in a lot of

518
00:25:56,960 --> 00:26:00,520
Speaker 1: the ideas that we already had. Let's talk about Atlanta

519
00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:06,040
Speaker 1: Falcons three point dogs at New Orleans. You could have

520
00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:08,159
Speaker 1: gotten them at three and a half. Look, this is

521
00:26:08,280 --> 00:26:13,000
Speaker 1: to me, it's a fade of Dennis Allen and Derek

522
00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:18,080
Speaker 1: Carr right as favorites. It's also Arthur Smith coaching for

523
00:26:18,320 --> 00:26:21,159
Speaker 1: his job. Very small chance if the Bucks lose to

524
00:26:21,359 --> 00:26:25,520
Speaker 1: the Panthers and Atlanta beats New Orleans, Atlanta wins the division.

525
00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:32,160
Speaker 1: And this also plays into the Falcons' strengths. Arthur Smith

526
00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:34,080
Speaker 1: is going to make this a running game. He's got

527
00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:35,640
Speaker 1: to put the ball in the hands of his best

528
00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:38,760
Speaker 1: weapons against a Saints defense against the run that is

529
00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:42,000
Speaker 1: just not very good. So to me, this will ultimately

530
00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:44,800
Speaker 1: be about what is the number in the contest? Is

531
00:26:44,840 --> 00:26:45,920
Speaker 1: it going to be a two and a half? Is

532
00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:48,640
Speaker 1: it going to be a three and a half? But fuck,

533
00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:50,879
Speaker 1: do you want to not bet on Derek Carr and

534
00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:52,119
Speaker 1: Dennis Allen in this spot?

535
00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:53,760
Speaker 2: Yeah?

536
00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:56,480
Speaker 3: I think I saw a staff from Evan. Dennis Allen

537
00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:59,080
Speaker 3: is four and sixteen against the spread after a straight

538
00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:02,640
Speaker 3: up win. So just an absolute train wreck of a coach.

539
00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:07,800
Speaker 3: Bade Fade, Bade, we knew we wanted to be in Atlanta.

540
00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:09,520
Speaker 3: Like the fear for me was just the fact that

541
00:27:10,240 --> 00:27:12,120
Speaker 3: I just couldn't believe there was prosen in their side

542
00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:15,320
Speaker 3: that I couldn't believe it where It's something that I

543
00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:17,720
Speaker 3: had to go to rehab this season. Get off the

544
00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:22,199
Speaker 3: Derek Carr, I get it. It's toxic. He'll have these

545
00:27:22,240 --> 00:27:24,640
Speaker 3: moments we will suck in. You think he's a good coach,

546
00:27:26,040 --> 00:27:30,040
Speaker 3: he is not like Dennis Allen, bad coach. Derek Carr

547
00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:33,720
Speaker 3: incredible between the twenties. We know his struggles. His struggles

548
00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:37,560
Speaker 3: are in the red zone. Jad just nailed it. Like

549
00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:39,280
Speaker 3: it's just whoever the.

550
00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:40,199
Speaker 2: Dog was going to be here.

551
00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:42,440
Speaker 3: If the Saints were a dog, we would have backed them.

552
00:27:42,520 --> 00:27:44,400
Speaker 3: If Atlanta is the dog, we would back them. It's

553
00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:48,320
Speaker 3: just both these teams don't deserve respect, it being more

554
00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:49,520
Speaker 3: than a field goal favorite.

555
00:27:49,680 --> 00:27:53,199
Speaker 2: And that's the damn truth. So yeah, like.

556
00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:58,159
Speaker 3: I loved fading Atlanta off a win. We're in the

557
00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:00,239
Speaker 3: perfect scenario of them having such a bad law us

558
00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:02,480
Speaker 3: on the road in Chicago now coming down here to

559
00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:04,280
Speaker 3: play this game. Like it's all setting up for this

560
00:28:04,320 --> 00:28:06,320
Speaker 3: Atlanta team to steal this division.

561
00:28:07,400 --> 00:28:10,199
Speaker 2: The part they needed. The Panthers beating the Bucks though.

562
00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:11,600
Speaker 2: That's probably my favorite part of it.

563
00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:15,520
Speaker 3: The Panthers first team, I believe in NFL history or

564
00:28:15,560 --> 00:28:18,360
Speaker 3: something crazy like this, that have not led the entire

565
00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:22,280
Speaker 3: season in the fourth quarter. So they've gone a whole season,

566
00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:24,600
Speaker 3: they have not led once in the fourth quarter, but

567
00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:26,520
Speaker 3: they have what two wins because they want it both

568
00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:28,960
Speaker 3: as time expired on field goal.

569
00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:34,240
Speaker 2: Just just incredibly incredible. How terrible that Panthers team historically bad?

570
00:28:35,440 --> 00:28:38,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, Panthers will be by the way Panthers will be

571
00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:44,920
Speaker 1: for money, Yeah yeah right. Derek Carr, in his tenth

572
00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:49,880
Speaker 1: year as an NFL starter, is dreadful against the spread

573
00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:52,280
Speaker 1: as a favorite. This season, He's two eight and one

574
00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:55,080
Speaker 1: as a favorite, and I think we lost both those

575
00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:58,240
Speaker 1: games because we just kept betting against Derek Carr as

576
00:28:58,280 --> 00:28:58,760
Speaker 1: a favorite.

577
00:28:59,600 --> 00:28:59,840
Speaker 2: He is.

578
00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:03,440
Speaker 1: I finished above five hundred against the spread since the

579
00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:10,000
Speaker 1: end of the twenty sixteen season before Donald Trump's inauguration. Damn,

580
00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:12,000
Speaker 1: how well you like that?

581
00:29:12,280 --> 00:29:13,840
Speaker 2: That was his MVP season too, right?

582
00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:18,480
Speaker 1: That was just like that the Brokes wagon let yeah, insane.

583
00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:22,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, So Chad just said you with it.

584
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:25,240
Speaker 3: It's like, if you're riding these bets and these trends

585
00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:28,640
Speaker 3: with us that we know are long term winners. Come on, people,

586
00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:30,880
Speaker 3: we gave you another winning season. Keep riding with us,

587
00:29:31,000 --> 00:29:34,000
Speaker 3: like you got to ride these ugly dogs here, bet Atlanta,

588
00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:34,840
Speaker 3: shop around.

589
00:29:34,880 --> 00:29:36,440
Speaker 2: You can still find three and a half's out there.

590
00:29:36,520 --> 00:29:38,480
Speaker 3: Like Chad said, if it's two and a half in

591
00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:40,680
Speaker 3: our contest, I'm with you, like I wouldn't take that,

592
00:29:41,040 --> 00:29:43,000
Speaker 3: like that's such a shit number. But if you can

593
00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:45,240
Speaker 3: shop around right now and find the three three and

594
00:29:45,280 --> 00:29:46,959
Speaker 3: a half, you gotta take Atlanta here.

595
00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:50,920
Speaker 1: Speaking of ugly dogs, the Philadelphia Eagles are on the

596
00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:53,200
Speaker 1: road at the New York Football Giants, and the Giants

597
00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:55,560
Speaker 1: are five point dogs. We liked it a lot on

598
00:29:55,640 --> 00:29:58,160
Speaker 1: Tuesday when it was five and a half. We still

599
00:29:58,320 --> 00:30:00,920
Speaker 1: like it at five. I think it's a very tricky

600
00:30:01,000 --> 00:30:04,400
Speaker 1: spot for the Eagles. They will know their fate for

601
00:30:04,560 --> 00:30:08,280
Speaker 1: the playoffs pretty much by the time this game kicks off,

602
00:30:08,800 --> 00:30:11,240
Speaker 1: because the Cowboys are in the one o'clock game is

603
00:30:11,280 --> 00:30:15,760
Speaker 1: two touchdown favorites against the Commanders, So it will impact

604
00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:18,680
Speaker 1: I think how the Eagles play this game, will their

605
00:30:18,760 --> 00:30:22,440
Speaker 1: starters play, will they pull their starters quickly? How will

606
00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:25,280
Speaker 1: they approach this game mentally? Also, the team is a

607
00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:32,600
Speaker 1: freaking mess right now. Aj Brown drama, coaching, drama, play calling, drama. Schematically,

608
00:30:32,760 --> 00:30:36,480
Speaker 1: the Giants will blitz like crazy, which has been a

609
00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:41,040
Speaker 1: terrible achilles heel for the Eagles this year. We both

610
00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:44,960
Speaker 1: like Tyrod Taylor. He's a gamer. Matt Mitchell was saying

611
00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:49,640
Speaker 1: to me earlier, Tyrod Taylor is the is the nineteen

612
00:30:49,720 --> 00:30:53,040
Speaker 1: of Blackjack cans. You feel good about it. You don't

613
00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:56,000
Speaker 1: know if you can win, it's kind of boring, but

614
00:30:56,120 --> 00:30:58,239
Speaker 1: you feel like you got a shot that I think

615
00:30:58,280 --> 00:31:00,760
Speaker 1: that's a great way to describe hi Rod Taylor.

616
00:31:02,240 --> 00:31:06,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, and he's just he's like Minshew right, Like you

617
00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:08,440
Speaker 3: don't think you're gonna win the game. We don't think

618
00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:10,840
Speaker 3: you're totally gonna lose it. It's like these these backups

619
00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:12,920
Speaker 3: that they can come in and it's like, you know,

620
00:31:13,120 --> 00:31:17,000
Speaker 3: this isn't totally a lost cause. And even last week

621
00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:19,480
Speaker 3: with him, like I felt confidence in Taylor against the

622
00:31:19,600 --> 00:31:21,920
Speaker 3: Rams because he is such a gamer, like I talked about,

623
00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:24,360
Speaker 3: like he just consistently will put his team in the

624
00:31:24,400 --> 00:31:26,480
Speaker 3: best position, doesn't matter if he's down ten points or

625
00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:27,320
Speaker 3: up seven points.

626
00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:31,719
Speaker 2: Like he's just cool in calm, even keel. I mean,

627
00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:35,440
Speaker 2: people our young listeners don't remember, but the Bills basically

628
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:41,560
Speaker 2: sucked for ten fifteen years and incomes Taylor and Lashawn

629
00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:43,960
Speaker 2: McCoy and they made it work.

630
00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:47,000
Speaker 3: They got the Bills to the playoffs during that Tom

631
00:31:47,040 --> 00:31:50,000
Speaker 3: Brady era. Like he's just a game one of the

632
00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:52,400
Speaker 3: best game managers we've had in football, where it's like

633
00:31:53,240 --> 00:31:56,320
Speaker 3: he's not gonna do this crazy stuff and shock you

634
00:31:56,440 --> 00:31:59,240
Speaker 3: and win these games like Lamar, but he's not gonna

635
00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:01,040
Speaker 3: burn you. And that's what I love about him so much.

636
00:32:01,120 --> 00:32:03,360
Speaker 3: So my only negative here is that we should be

637
00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:06,920
Speaker 3: catching seven. But the books and the public have caught up.

638
00:32:06,960 --> 00:32:09,680
Speaker 3: They're so off this Eagles team now that we're not

639
00:32:09,800 --> 00:32:12,000
Speaker 3: getting great value right, Like this number is at five

640
00:32:12,040 --> 00:32:14,360
Speaker 3: four and a half and a lot of books it's

641
00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:15,120
Speaker 3: where it should be.

642
00:32:15,800 --> 00:32:18,160
Speaker 2: But I'm still a believer that still the Eagles team's

643
00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:18,960
Speaker 2: still overvalued.

644
00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:22,840
Speaker 3: Like our guy Nick Giffin, like talking about luck rankings,

645
00:32:22,880 --> 00:32:26,720
Speaker 3: he's shipped on the Eagles for I feel like two months. Yeah,

646
00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:28,760
Speaker 3: and he kind of knew, like he knew how lucky

647
00:32:28,840 --> 00:32:30,760
Speaker 3: this team was getting and how it was going to

648
00:32:30,840 --> 00:32:33,600
Speaker 3: catch up to him eventually. And I think if I

649
00:32:33,720 --> 00:32:35,240
Speaker 3: go back and look at our contest. I think we've

650
00:32:35,280 --> 00:32:38,400
Speaker 3: had four straight weeks now chadaw just betting against the Eagles,

651
00:32:38,480 --> 00:32:41,880
Speaker 3: which has been amazing. Like every week, it's not in doubt,

652
00:32:41,880 --> 00:32:45,800
Speaker 3: we're covering, we're winning outright on freaking twelve point dogs

653
00:32:45,960 --> 00:32:49,640
Speaker 3: on the road in Philly. It's just been a great

654
00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:53,080
Speaker 3: ride as someone that loves the Eagles but knows this

655
00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:56,200
Speaker 3: team is broken and they've been broken, and we've been

656
00:32:56,280 --> 00:32:58,000
Speaker 3: making good money off of it, and I just I

657
00:32:58,040 --> 00:33:00,360
Speaker 3: can't hop off the train yet, Like I think the

658
00:33:00,440 --> 00:33:03,320
Speaker 3: numbers too big. Maybe in the playoffs the numbers will

659
00:33:03,360 --> 00:33:05,400
Speaker 3: come around and we'll get value on this Eagles team,

660
00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:09,400
Speaker 3: but right now, still still overvalued. So I know the

661
00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:12,280
Speaker 3: Eagles have had the Giants number, and Chad just broke

662
00:33:12,320 --> 00:33:14,000
Speaker 3: it down to me why it's giving me confidence though.

663
00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:17,640
Speaker 3: If the Cowboys win, if Detroit win, or whatever happens,

664
00:33:17,720 --> 00:33:20,320
Speaker 3: it's like the Eagles might not be playing for anything.

665
00:33:20,400 --> 00:33:22,880
Speaker 3: Maybe they'll have Hurts play in the first quarter or

666
00:33:22,920 --> 00:33:25,160
Speaker 3: something like that. But he's banged up. A lot of

667
00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:27,560
Speaker 3: guys are banged up. They should want to rest these

668
00:33:27,600 --> 00:33:30,360
Speaker 3: guys in this game. Like you know, Kelsey's been banged up,

669
00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:32,280
Speaker 3: they take him out, they take Lane Johnson out. Now

670
00:33:32,360 --> 00:33:34,920
Speaker 3: we have their whole backups starting on that O line

671
00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:36,960
Speaker 3: against a Giants team that Chad just talked about.

672
00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:39,800
Speaker 2: They love the Blitz. Now Mariota is the quarterback of

673
00:33:39,800 --> 00:33:42,240
Speaker 2: the Eagles as well, So now you have a backup

674
00:33:42,320 --> 00:33:45,120
Speaker 2: offensive line and Mariota as a five point favorite.

675
00:33:45,560 --> 00:33:47,520
Speaker 3: Come on, like, we got to take daily here. We're

676
00:33:47,520 --> 00:33:49,640
Speaker 3: gonna play them in the contest as well. It's still

677
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:51,160
Speaker 3: five and a half. I'm seen at a couple of

678
00:33:51,200 --> 00:33:53,760
Speaker 3: books seeing five at our book, maybe four and a

679
00:33:53,800 --> 00:33:56,640
Speaker 3: half in contest, No worries, I'd still take that number.

680
00:33:57,160 --> 00:34:00,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, that to me feels like along with Tennessee, like

681
00:34:01,200 --> 00:34:03,560
Speaker 1: that's just a we're gonna want to be in that

682
00:34:03,680 --> 00:34:06,280
Speaker 1: position no matter what happens. Like, the second half of

683
00:34:06,320 --> 00:34:07,960
Speaker 1: that game is how that game is going to be

684
00:34:08,080 --> 00:34:11,160
Speaker 1: won or lost. And I would rather have the Giants

685
00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:14,160
Speaker 1: in the second half of that game than the Eagles,

686
00:34:14,160 --> 00:34:16,440
Speaker 1: who have nothing left to play for and will by

687
00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:23,440
Speaker 1: then we'll certainly know their fate against the Cowboys. All right, Chicago,

688
00:34:23,560 --> 00:34:27,040
Speaker 1: Green Bay? How are we not taking the Bears here?

689
00:34:27,160 --> 00:34:30,200
Speaker 1: I don't care what anybody's saying. I don't care what

690
00:34:30,440 --> 00:34:34,560
Speaker 1: any wise guy chatter there is this is We've been

691
00:34:34,600 --> 00:34:36,440
Speaker 1: in this spot with the Bears, and you and I

692
00:34:36,520 --> 00:34:40,200
Speaker 1: are completely aligned. They are not ranking this game, this

693
00:34:40,360 --> 00:34:43,680
Speaker 1: team properly right now. There are seven to five in

694
00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:47,839
Speaker 1: the last twelve games. In the same way that you're

695
00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:51,600
Speaker 1: talking about. What is Mike Vrabel saying and how does

696
00:34:51,640 --> 00:34:56,160
Speaker 1: he feel about tanking? I have been reading everything I

697
00:34:56,239 --> 00:34:59,480
Speaker 1: can read about the Chicago Bears because look, the story

698
00:34:59,520 --> 00:35:04,320
Speaker 1: about Justin Fields is the most interesting story for the

699
00:35:04,520 --> 00:35:09,040
Speaker 1: NFL right now. Will he stay? Will they ship him out?

700
00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:11,399
Speaker 1: What will they do with the number one pick? Will

701
00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:17,560
Speaker 1: it be Caleb Williams. Everybody's gotten opinion, Every expert has

702
00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:22,320
Speaker 1: an opinion. This team likes Justin Fields. They were excited

703
00:35:22,360 --> 00:35:25,799
Speaker 1: when the crowd was chanting we won Fields. They will

704
00:35:25,840 --> 00:35:28,840
Speaker 1: play for Justin Fields this week. They will play to

705
00:35:28,880 --> 00:35:31,239
Speaker 1: finish the season with as good a record as they

706
00:35:31,280 --> 00:35:34,239
Speaker 1: can possibly have. This defense has just gotten better and

707
00:35:34,360 --> 00:35:39,839
Speaker 1: better and better, and it matches up well against Jordan Love.

708
00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:46,240
Speaker 1: So to me, the Packers defense is truly dreadful. Since

709
00:35:46,960 --> 00:35:49,240
Speaker 1: they beat the Chiefs with some help from the refs

710
00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:52,399
Speaker 1: on that Monday night football game, what have they done?

711
00:35:52,800 --> 00:35:55,600
Speaker 1: They gave up? They lost to Tommy Devido and the Giants.

712
00:35:56,120 --> 00:35:58,359
Speaker 1: They lost to Baker Mayfield in the box and made

713
00:35:58,400 --> 00:36:01,799
Speaker 1: him look like the MVP. They gave him thirty points

714
00:36:01,840 --> 00:36:04,560
Speaker 1: to Bryce Young. The Panthers hadn't scored more than twenty

715
00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:10,120
Speaker 1: one points since October fifteenth. Like take the Bears. This

716
00:36:10,320 --> 00:36:11,240
Speaker 1: was my exact decision.

717
00:36:11,800 --> 00:36:15,120
Speaker 3: Take the Bears, and just real quick, a little housekeeping.

718
00:36:16,800 --> 00:36:18,920
Speaker 3: We said the Eagles and the Cowboys play at different times.

719
00:36:18,920 --> 00:36:21,160
Speaker 3: They do play at the same time, but it still

720
00:36:21,200 --> 00:36:23,560
Speaker 3: stands where if Dallas is up twenty four to three

721
00:36:23,640 --> 00:36:26,200
Speaker 3: at halftime, I still think the Eagles will pull starters

722
00:36:26,200 --> 00:36:27,920
Speaker 3: in the second half, so nothing changes there.

723
00:36:28,440 --> 00:36:30,120
Speaker 1: How did I read that wrong? I thought they were

724
00:36:30,160 --> 00:36:30,680
Speaker 1: one too.

725
00:36:30,880 --> 00:36:32,440
Speaker 2: They must have. They must have adjusted it because I

726
00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:33,960
Speaker 2: almost was positive Eagles playing.

727
00:36:34,040 --> 00:36:36,880
Speaker 1: I was positive, like even in I think on our

728
00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:38,319
Speaker 1: website they have it as one and four.

729
00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:41,080
Speaker 3: But Matt let me know in the chat, so I

730
00:36:41,200 --> 00:36:46,560
Speaker 3: trust my our producer, Fine the Bears first part.

731
00:36:46,560 --> 00:36:47,200
Speaker 2: I get them the Bears.

732
00:36:47,239 --> 00:36:49,440
Speaker 3: I'll give the Packers and Jordan loves some flowers. The

733
00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:53,040
Speaker 3: Packers are one of four teams with zero Pro Bowlers.

734
00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:56,080
Speaker 3: They had zero Pro Bowlers and Jordan Love in his

735
00:36:56,239 --> 00:36:58,840
Speaker 3: first season threw for thirty touchdowns and has them in

736
00:36:58,880 --> 00:37:02,239
Speaker 3: a position to make the playoff. It's just it's incredible,

737
00:37:02,320 --> 00:37:04,000
Speaker 3: Like I really can't wrap my head around it.

738
00:37:04,040 --> 00:37:05,360
Speaker 2: Where it's like in a.

739
00:37:05,400 --> 00:37:09,440
Speaker 3: Year where there are no real MVPs, it's I mean,

740
00:37:09,520 --> 00:37:11,719
Speaker 3: Jordan Love should have got a little bit more love

741
00:37:12,120 --> 00:37:15,400
Speaker 3: talking about MVP where he has zero Pro bowlers and

742
00:37:15,560 --> 00:37:17,120
Speaker 3: he has his team in a position to make the

743
00:37:17,160 --> 00:37:19,279
Speaker 3: playoffs in his first year as a starter, Like that's

744
00:37:20,440 --> 00:37:22,120
Speaker 3: I mean, you really can't wrap your head around if

745
00:37:22,160 --> 00:37:24,000
Speaker 3: you know how hard it is to be a quarterback

746
00:37:24,040 --> 00:37:25,959
Speaker 3: in this league and how hard is to win games

747
00:37:26,000 --> 00:37:28,800
Speaker 3: in this league. It's like, wow, Jordan Love first season,

748
00:37:28,920 --> 00:37:31,719
Speaker 3: that's that's incredible to do with no talent and the

749
00:37:31,800 --> 00:37:35,160
Speaker 3: coaching too, Lafloor all of them deserve such flowers here.

750
00:37:35,239 --> 00:37:37,560
Speaker 3: But Chad's right, like, sorry to shit on you guys,

751
00:37:37,680 --> 00:37:41,680
Speaker 3: Packers fans, but the Bears have more talent, they have

752
00:37:43,640 --> 00:37:47,080
Speaker 3: all the momentum. Their defense is playing so much better

753
00:37:47,560 --> 00:37:50,239
Speaker 3: than the Packers defense have ever played this season at

754
00:37:50,320 --> 00:37:53,600
Speaker 3: this point, like it's just all pointing to it. The

755
00:37:53,719 --> 00:37:57,080
Speaker 3: only fear is, you guys have been the Packers' little

756
00:37:57,120 --> 00:38:00,399
Speaker 3: brother for so long and I went back, I watched

757
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:01,160
Speaker 3: that Week one film.

758
00:38:01,160 --> 00:38:03,399
Speaker 2: I know things have changed. Obviously, your defense is better.

759
00:38:05,840 --> 00:38:09,040
Speaker 3: They every guy that caught balls in that game against

760
00:38:09,080 --> 00:38:11,160
Speaker 3: the Bears was wide open, Like you guys had no

761
00:38:11,280 --> 00:38:14,160
Speaker 3: one covering anyone in that game. It was probably one

762
00:38:14,160 --> 00:38:16,080
Speaker 3: of the worst games the Bears played all season.

763
00:38:16,160 --> 00:38:18,600
Speaker 1: Right that that was JV football that way, I remember

764
00:38:19,000 --> 00:38:22,960
Speaker 1: talking about that on the podcast That was JV Defense.

765
00:38:23,040 --> 00:38:25,919
Speaker 1: It was embarrassing. But they have gotten so much better side.

766
00:38:27,040 --> 00:38:30,680
Speaker 1: It's it's a different season almost, it is.

767
00:38:30,800 --> 00:38:32,399
Speaker 3: And if you just go back and watch the last

768
00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:35,000
Speaker 3: couple of weeks, you would never know that's the same

769
00:38:35,080 --> 00:38:38,760
Speaker 3: Bears defense where you know their cornerbacks are actually pressing

770
00:38:38,840 --> 00:38:41,879
Speaker 3: guys of the line. They're not running the stupid zone

771
00:38:41,880 --> 00:38:43,560
Speaker 3: where three guys go with the same guy in the

772
00:38:43,560 --> 00:38:45,400
Speaker 3: middle of the field and they're like they're leaving Washington

773
00:38:45,560 --> 00:38:48,400
Speaker 3: on one on one and no coverage on the outside.

774
00:38:48,520 --> 00:38:51,120
Speaker 3: Like it's all been fixed. It feels like for this

775
00:38:51,239 --> 00:38:54,400
Speaker 3: Bears team, so totally new team. The number doesn't reflect it.

776
00:38:55,520 --> 00:38:57,680
Speaker 3: We already talked about this is one of the more

777
00:38:57,719 --> 00:39:00,640
Speaker 3: public dogs of the week, this Bears team. But yeah,

778
00:39:00,640 --> 00:39:02,200
Speaker 3: it's right, Like I don't care I'm not gonna let

779
00:39:02,239 --> 00:39:05,839
Speaker 3: that scare me off. I think the books have been wrong.

780
00:39:06,200 --> 00:39:06,640
Speaker 2: They haven't.

781
00:39:06,800 --> 00:39:08,759
Speaker 3: They haven't caught up to this Bears team will take

782
00:39:08,800 --> 00:39:11,680
Speaker 3: their value. The only thing that sucks is probably gonna

783
00:39:11,680 --> 00:39:14,319
Speaker 3: be two and a half in our contest. But that's

784
00:39:14,719 --> 00:39:16,400
Speaker 3: the deal we make with the devil here, so we

785
00:39:16,440 --> 00:39:18,640
Speaker 3: don't care about pushes. We'll take the two and a half.

786
00:39:19,560 --> 00:39:23,719
Speaker 1: Uh yeah, I I this will be another one that's

787
00:39:23,760 --> 00:39:28,960
Speaker 1: in our money line underdog. Oh yeah, round robin. Two

788
00:39:29,040 --> 00:39:30,879
Speaker 1: more games I want to discuss I get maybe three,

789
00:39:31,239 --> 00:39:34,600
Speaker 1: but real quickly, I want to touch on Denver at

790
00:39:34,600 --> 00:39:37,480
Speaker 1: the Raiders, because we talked about it on Tuesday. Yeah,

791
00:39:37,920 --> 00:39:40,480
Speaker 1: I really like Denver if you can get him at three,

792
00:39:40,680 --> 00:39:43,000
Speaker 1: and they're at two and a half at bet three

793
00:39:43,040 --> 00:39:47,160
Speaker 1: sixty five, but they are at three just about everywhere else,

794
00:39:47,640 --> 00:39:50,520
Speaker 1: and it's moved in the past twenty four hours. I

795
00:39:50,600 --> 00:39:55,680
Speaker 1: bet Denver plus three. It could sneak into depending on

796
00:39:55,800 --> 00:39:59,680
Speaker 1: the numbers for other games, our final five, but more

797
00:39:59,680 --> 00:40:04,000
Speaker 1: iorant currently it could be a foxhole only because it's

798
00:40:04,040 --> 00:40:07,840
Speaker 1: the biggest discrepancy of tickets for any game that we

799
00:40:08,000 --> 00:40:10,800
Speaker 1: have talked about today. Every game we're talking about today

800
00:40:11,640 --> 00:40:15,120
Speaker 1: unless we're gonna go in on Buffalo, which is interesting,

801
00:40:15,600 --> 00:40:19,160
Speaker 1: but this could be a Foxhole game. That's that's the

802
00:40:19,239 --> 00:40:20,640
Speaker 1: real reason why I wanted to bring it up.

803
00:40:22,760 --> 00:40:24,920
Speaker 2: I've tried to get on the side here.

804
00:40:24,960 --> 00:40:27,120
Speaker 3: I was like chat, I did like denver first plan,

805
00:40:27,239 --> 00:40:31,279
Speaker 3: especially you know now they're up to plus three, but

806
00:40:31,560 --> 00:40:32,920
Speaker 3: I just I don't know what to deal with it,

807
00:40:33,280 --> 00:40:35,000
Speaker 3: Like this game. I've been trying to figure out what

808
00:40:35,080 --> 00:40:37,239
Speaker 3: to deal with it, but it's like I don't really

809
00:40:37,239 --> 00:40:39,720
Speaker 3: have a good read on either of these quarterbacks.

810
00:40:40,360 --> 00:40:41,919
Speaker 2: A man and this number.

811
00:40:41,960 --> 00:40:46,200
Speaker 3: This game, it's gonna cost to me probably low six

812
00:40:46,239 --> 00:40:48,920
Speaker 3: figures whoever wins this game, because I am heavy on

813
00:40:49,160 --> 00:40:51,200
Speaker 3: the under of the Raiders, and if they hit, they

814
00:40:51,239 --> 00:40:53,600
Speaker 3: win this game, they go over. I'm heavy on Denver

815
00:40:53,840 --> 00:40:55,920
Speaker 3: over wins, which they need to win this game to

816
00:40:56,000 --> 00:40:59,879
Speaker 3: go over. So oh man, I can't separate that. I'm

817
00:41:00,080 --> 00:41:03,719
Speaker 3: very emotionally money wise invested in this game. I hope

818
00:41:03,800 --> 00:41:06,480
Speaker 3: Chad's right because I need I need Denver to win

819
00:41:06,560 --> 00:41:07,800
Speaker 3: this game for a lot of money.

820
00:41:08,480 --> 00:41:11,360
Speaker 2: But I'm too close to him, too biased to it.

821
00:41:11,440 --> 00:41:14,600
Speaker 3: Where I everything, I every every little thing I look at,

822
00:41:14,680 --> 00:41:17,600
Speaker 3: it's make How do you not love Denver in this spot. Yeah,

823
00:41:17,600 --> 00:41:21,920
Speaker 3: They're just the Raiders have been incredibly lucky, and I

824
00:41:21,960 --> 00:41:24,400
Speaker 3: know people are gonna throw those defensive stats in our faces,

825
00:41:24,520 --> 00:41:26,520
Speaker 3: like how well they've played since Piers stuck over, But

826
00:41:27,400 --> 00:41:29,200
Speaker 3: go back and look at the quarterbacks they played in

827
00:41:29,239 --> 00:41:32,120
Speaker 3: those games, and how fluky a lot of those numbers are.

828
00:41:32,280 --> 00:41:35,360
Speaker 3: So the Bears, I am by like the Bears, I

829
00:41:35,400 --> 00:41:37,200
Speaker 3: can go back and I can actually see what they're

830
00:41:37,239 --> 00:41:40,080
Speaker 3: doing different the Raiders. It just feels like it's been

831
00:41:40,120 --> 00:41:41,840
Speaker 3: really fluky and they've had a lot of luck. So

832
00:41:43,120 --> 00:41:44,920
Speaker 3: I'm right there with you, Chad. Just the fear is

833
00:41:44,960 --> 00:41:46,279
Speaker 3: it'll be once again, it'll be two and a half

834
00:41:46,320 --> 00:41:48,040
Speaker 3: in our contest where me and you both want the

835
00:41:48,080 --> 00:41:48,919
Speaker 3: three three and a half.

836
00:41:49,760 --> 00:41:53,200
Speaker 1: All right, well, let's talk about Miami Buffalo and we'll

837
00:41:53,320 --> 00:41:58,600
Speaker 1: choose Foxhole, because, yeah, I know everything you were saying

838
00:41:58,760 --> 00:42:02,920
Speaker 1: about Miami is true, and that the wise guys are

839
00:42:03,040 --> 00:42:07,120
Speaker 1: going to be on the Dolphins at plus three, and

840
00:42:07,320 --> 00:42:10,440
Speaker 1: that the Dolphins at home are a different team, and

841
00:42:10,600 --> 00:42:13,160
Speaker 1: the last time the Dolphins and Bills played in Miami,

842
00:42:13,280 --> 00:42:16,440
Speaker 1: I think the Dolphins won. That was to start the

843
00:42:16,520 --> 00:42:21,040
Speaker 1: season in twenty twenty two. I think there's a lot

844
00:42:21,160 --> 00:42:27,040
Speaker 1: of bad juju with the Dolphins right now. Their defense

845
00:42:27,120 --> 00:42:31,400
Speaker 1: is injured, They're missing some of their best players. The

846
00:42:31,520 --> 00:42:36,439
Speaker 1: Tyreek Hill situation emotionally, a huge fire at his house

847
00:42:36,520 --> 00:42:38,760
Speaker 1: that is a scary thing because some of his family

848
00:42:38,920 --> 00:42:45,120
Speaker 1: was home. He's playing injured. Jalen Wattle has been playing injured.

849
00:42:46,160 --> 00:42:51,920
Speaker 1: There's a lot of issues here. The Buffalo Bills might

850
00:42:52,000 --> 00:42:53,440
Speaker 1: be the best team in the NFL right now.

851
00:42:55,800 --> 00:42:56,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's the fear.

852
00:42:56,719 --> 00:42:59,560
Speaker 3: Though the bill should easily roll like this just feels

853
00:42:59,640 --> 00:43:02,239
Speaker 3: like a game they should dominate, especially coming off such

854
00:43:02,280 --> 00:43:05,960
Speaker 3: a bad game last week. I just I can't see

855
00:43:06,040 --> 00:43:09,879
Speaker 3: them having back to back such poors weeks. This Bills team,

856
00:43:10,800 --> 00:43:12,520
Speaker 3: it's crazy right now. If you look, they have the

857
00:43:12,600 --> 00:43:15,759
Speaker 3: third best Super Bowl odds, but they might not make

858
00:43:15,800 --> 00:43:18,160
Speaker 3: the playoffs. Like that's right, I feel like the perfect

859
00:43:18,200 --> 00:43:19,759
Speaker 3: summary for this Bill's team where they could be the

860
00:43:19,840 --> 00:43:23,840
Speaker 3: two seed or the out of the playoffs, and you know,

861
00:43:24,160 --> 00:43:27,880
Speaker 3: Josh Allen not making the Pro Bowl bizarre, Like.

862
00:43:29,440 --> 00:43:30,120
Speaker 2: I don't know one of this.

863
00:43:30,560 --> 00:43:33,000
Speaker 3: Obviously, I would love for it to happen. But if

864
00:43:33,040 --> 00:43:36,440
Speaker 3: you're someone like me who bet him for MVP, it's

865
00:43:36,520 --> 00:43:38,680
Speaker 3: not dead. Like I know everyone thinks Lamar has won

866
00:43:38,760 --> 00:43:41,520
Speaker 3: it and it's locked up. But people are huge into

867
00:43:41,600 --> 00:43:44,200
Speaker 3: numbers and stats, and when you put their stats on

868
00:43:44,280 --> 00:43:47,280
Speaker 3: paper next to each other, it's like, you know, Lamar

869
00:43:47,320 --> 00:43:50,560
Speaker 3: has had a great season, but it's not comparable to

870
00:43:50,680 --> 00:43:53,840
Speaker 3: someone like Josh Allen, who has what fifteen rushing touchdowns.

871
00:43:53,880 --> 00:43:57,080
Speaker 3: He's one way from tying OJ's record for most rushing

872
00:43:57,120 --> 00:44:01,799
Speaker 3: touchdowns and Bill's history. He's just had such an incredible year.

873
00:44:01,840 --> 00:44:03,839
Speaker 3: What's killed him as the turnovers, and that's why maybe

874
00:44:03,880 --> 00:44:06,040
Speaker 3: he didn't make the Pro Bowl because of all the turnovers.

875
00:44:06,120 --> 00:44:07,200
Speaker 1: But yeah, you know.

876
00:44:07,400 --> 00:44:08,560
Speaker 2: Someone that's bet him MVP.

877
00:44:09,400 --> 00:44:11,600
Speaker 3: The scenario is there, if we get a game that's

878
00:44:11,719 --> 00:44:16,120
Speaker 3: close and he can rush for two touchdowns, break OJ's record,

879
00:44:16,160 --> 00:44:17,600
Speaker 3: throw for three touchdowns and one of them is a

880
00:44:17,640 --> 00:44:20,760
Speaker 3: game winning drive, I think he could still steal this MVP.

881
00:44:21,120 --> 00:44:22,920
Speaker 3: Like he's got the you'll have the two seed at

882
00:44:22,960 --> 00:44:25,200
Speaker 3: that point. It would be an incredible story of this

883
00:44:25,320 --> 00:44:27,839
Speaker 3: team as one whatever it was, five or six straight

884
00:44:27,920 --> 00:44:30,400
Speaker 3: to end the season to get them into the playoffs.

885
00:44:30,520 --> 00:44:32,439
Speaker 3: Like we just said it, they couldn't afford to lose

886
00:44:32,480 --> 00:44:35,600
Speaker 3: a game down the stretch here. You know, their last

887
00:44:35,680 --> 00:44:38,439
Speaker 3: loss was a flukey loss that Eagles team, and they've

888
00:44:38,520 --> 00:44:41,400
Speaker 3: just been a juggernaut down here. Like even against that

889
00:44:41,480 --> 00:44:45,120
Speaker 3: Patriots game they played so bad, so sloppy, they won.

890
00:44:45,400 --> 00:44:47,000
Speaker 3: Like it's just a team that knows how to win

891
00:44:47,080 --> 00:44:50,240
Speaker 3: these really close, ugly games. And that's why the Bills

892
00:44:50,280 --> 00:44:52,279
Speaker 3: are the third best odds to win the Super Bowl.

893
00:44:52,360 --> 00:44:55,680
Speaker 3: It's like I have even though Josh Allen's never done

894
00:44:55,719 --> 00:44:59,160
Speaker 3: it and he keeps falling short in the playoffs, I

895
00:44:59,239 --> 00:45:02,280
Speaker 3: still have more fai in him that I do in Lamar,

896
00:45:02,440 --> 00:45:05,200
Speaker 3: especially at that price point. Like I'd rather pay the

897
00:45:05,320 --> 00:45:07,319
Speaker 3: number on the Bills, and I would at Lamar at

898
00:45:07,360 --> 00:45:08,759
Speaker 3: his price point for the Super Bowl.

899
00:45:08,840 --> 00:45:11,280
Speaker 2: So it's a long.

900
00:45:11,160 --> 00:45:13,960
Speaker 3: Winded answer to say I love the Bills here. I

901
00:45:14,040 --> 00:45:15,920
Speaker 3: love them so much. I love them at this number.

902
00:45:17,200 --> 00:45:18,600
Speaker 3: It just doesn't feel like this is going to be

903
00:45:18,640 --> 00:45:20,560
Speaker 3: a close one. Where like maybe that's my own issue,

904
00:45:20,560 --> 00:45:23,839
Speaker 3: where it's like all the games the Bills play are close.

905
00:45:23,880 --> 00:45:26,160
Speaker 3: They don't really blow teams out this year, just because

906
00:45:26,280 --> 00:45:27,720
Speaker 3: they've had the turnovers.

907
00:45:27,320 --> 00:45:29,640
Speaker 2: From Josh Allen and everything like that. But see I

908
00:45:29,760 --> 00:45:30,120
Speaker 2: just said it.

909
00:45:30,160 --> 00:45:33,000
Speaker 3: I don't think enough's being priced into the injuries to

910
00:45:33,080 --> 00:45:35,520
Speaker 3: Miami's offense and injuries to Miami's defense. They're just not

911
00:45:35,640 --> 00:45:37,839
Speaker 3: the same team they were even five weeks ago from

912
00:45:37,880 --> 00:45:41,680
Speaker 3: all these injuries they've had. So man, I can't believe

913
00:45:41,719 --> 00:45:43,800
Speaker 3: I'm doing it because it's so chalky, but I do.

914
00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:45,520
Speaker 2: I love the Bills in the spot.

915
00:45:47,160 --> 00:45:49,359
Speaker 1: Well. That's why I didn't pull the trader on Denver

916
00:45:49,480 --> 00:45:52,920
Speaker 1: as the foxhole, because I feel like knowing what we

917
00:45:53,160 --> 00:45:56,920
Speaker 1: know about where the professionals lean right now, even though

918
00:45:56,960 --> 00:46:02,160
Speaker 1: Buffalo is chalky. If we're talking about foxhole against the professionals,

919
00:46:02,600 --> 00:46:04,520
Speaker 1: Buffalo feels like the foxhole.

920
00:46:05,360 --> 00:46:06,879
Speaker 2: All right, let's make up the fox little brother.

921
00:46:07,320 --> 00:46:10,920
Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills are our foxhole. And I also had an

922
00:46:10,920 --> 00:46:13,640
Speaker 1: alternative reason for doing this, which is when I look

923
00:46:13,680 --> 00:46:18,600
Speaker 1: at our lineup of likely games, it's all underdogs and

924
00:46:19,800 --> 00:46:22,000
Speaker 1: it feels weird to me that we wouldn't have a

925
00:46:22,080 --> 00:46:26,080
Speaker 1: favorite in there, and Buffalo feels like the favorite that

926
00:46:27,080 --> 00:46:30,200
Speaker 1: fits the scenario most likely to cover.

927
00:46:31,360 --> 00:46:33,080
Speaker 2: I'll throw two favorites. How you see how you feel

928
00:46:33,080 --> 00:46:33,440
Speaker 2: about them?

929
00:46:33,719 --> 00:46:37,600
Speaker 3: Okay, how are you feeling about taking stick in the

930
00:46:37,719 --> 00:46:39,920
Speaker 3: Chargers minus three and a half at home against the

931
00:46:40,040 --> 00:46:41,120
Speaker 3: Chiefs and their backups?

932
00:46:43,880 --> 00:46:47,720
Speaker 1: No real feel for it, No, real feel. My feeling

933
00:46:47,880 --> 00:46:48,920
Speaker 1: is neutral to negative.

934
00:46:50,960 --> 00:46:51,120
Speaker 2: Yeah.

935
00:46:51,160 --> 00:46:53,600
Speaker 3: I like the Chargers there just because they have been

936
00:46:53,640 --> 00:46:56,799
Speaker 3: playing with the backups last couple of weeks. They looked

937
00:46:56,880 --> 00:47:01,120
Speaker 3: so bad against this Denver team that I just it

938
00:47:01,200 --> 00:47:03,200
Speaker 3: feels like the public is totally out on them, where.

939
00:47:04,719 --> 00:47:05,520
Speaker 2: You probably get a.

940
00:47:05,600 --> 00:47:08,279
Speaker 3: Nice price point on them if you're getting minus three

941
00:47:09,280 --> 00:47:14,120
Speaker 3: minus three and a half. He'd open our chat that

942
00:47:14,239 --> 00:47:16,439
Speaker 3: there's a chance that Bosa and Keen Allen would play.

943
00:47:17,280 --> 00:47:18,600
Speaker 2: That would be so stupid at that.

944
00:47:20,200 --> 00:47:23,480
Speaker 1: You know, slim chance that Keenan Allen and Bosa play.

945
00:47:23,880 --> 00:47:25,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, that would be so dumb if they actually did it.

946
00:47:26,200 --> 00:47:28,960
Speaker 3: But you know they're competitive football guys, right. All these

947
00:47:29,000 --> 00:47:31,960
Speaker 3: stats do matter, especially guys like Keen Allen and Bosa,

948
00:47:32,000 --> 00:47:35,239
Speaker 3: who you know, they're definitely playing for a championship. They're

949
00:47:35,239 --> 00:47:37,400
Speaker 3: just playing for their own stats at this point. UH

950
00:47:38,239 --> 00:47:40,000
Speaker 3: like them, but totally get a way you're off of it.

951
00:47:40,520 --> 00:47:45,879
Speaker 3: What about Cincinnati Bengals against his Browns team? Just six

952
00:47:45,920 --> 00:47:46,920
Speaker 3: and a half point favorite.

953
00:47:47,160 --> 00:47:48,759
Speaker 1: It feels like such a big number.

954
00:47:51,080 --> 00:47:52,600
Speaker 2: That's why you should want to back it though, right?

955
00:47:54,160 --> 00:47:56,480
Speaker 1: Do I like that better than the Bills? That's the thing,

956
00:47:57,040 --> 00:48:00,239
Speaker 1: like I feel, I feel I feel so much more

957
00:48:00,280 --> 00:48:04,359
Speaker 1: confident about the Buffalo Bills covering a short number as

958
00:48:04,920 --> 00:48:08,320
Speaker 1: road favorites, as crazy as that sounds, than I do

959
00:48:08,480 --> 00:48:13,680
Speaker 1: about Cincinnati as a huge favorite against the Browns. I

960
00:48:13,760 --> 00:48:16,480
Speaker 1: don't know why I feel that way. I like, the

961
00:48:16,520 --> 00:48:19,640
Speaker 1: Browns have a lot to play for here. They can

962
00:48:20,120 --> 00:48:24,040
Speaker 1: finish the year with a winning record, sinnat that matters.

963
00:48:24,160 --> 00:48:27,440
Speaker 1: I mean, the Cincinnati Bengals can. It's InTru I just

964
00:48:27,480 --> 00:48:29,280
Speaker 1: hadn't really thought about it, to be honest.

965
00:48:31,480 --> 00:48:34,040
Speaker 3: Well, so I'm heavy on the charters. I'm heavy into

966
00:48:34,080 --> 00:48:35,840
Speaker 3: the Bengals, like I bet both these ones.

967
00:48:37,000 --> 00:48:37,160
Speaker 2: You know.

968
00:48:37,880 --> 00:48:42,040
Speaker 3: Obviously, I feel like, you know, I got a great

969
00:48:42,120 --> 00:48:43,640
Speaker 3: number on since you because it was six and now

970
00:48:43,680 --> 00:48:46,319
Speaker 3: at seven. But I'm not really still worried about the seven.

971
00:48:46,360 --> 00:48:48,439
Speaker 3: I just think the Browns have been a different team

972
00:48:48,520 --> 00:48:50,920
Speaker 3: on the road this season, and now you're factoring that

973
00:48:51,000 --> 00:48:53,120
Speaker 3: they really aren't really playing for anything, right. The Browns

974
00:48:53,120 --> 00:48:55,480
Speaker 3: are sitting all their starters, they're sitting Flack or they're

975
00:48:55,480 --> 00:48:58,600
Speaker 3: sitting everyone. So now that means they're playing a fourth

976
00:48:58,680 --> 00:49:02,120
Speaker 3: or fifth stringer quarterback. It's the Cincinnati team that I mean,

977
00:49:02,160 --> 00:49:04,000
Speaker 3: They've played really well here down the stretch. I know

978
00:49:04,040 --> 00:49:05,640
Speaker 3: they've had a bunch of injuries to their defense.

979
00:49:05,760 --> 00:49:08,520
Speaker 2: That's my only real pause here where it's like, even

980
00:49:08,560 --> 00:49:10,560
Speaker 2: against a fourth or fifth stringer, we might still get

981
00:49:10,640 --> 00:49:13,120
Speaker 2: back doored here, which I can already just sense you

982
00:49:13,280 --> 00:49:16,080
Speaker 2: being like, why the hell did we back the Bengals

983
00:49:16,120 --> 00:49:18,520
Speaker 2: as a seven point favorite? But I feel like they're

984
00:49:18,520 --> 00:49:20,560
Speaker 2: trying to scare us off with such a big number,

985
00:49:20,719 --> 00:49:22,359
Speaker 2: and I'm trying not to let it scare them out

986
00:49:22,360 --> 00:49:25,439
Speaker 2: where it's like since he's good, like their backups, good

987
00:49:25,600 --> 00:49:27,560
Speaker 2: like they want which I just said, they want to

988
00:49:27,560 --> 00:49:31,239
Speaker 2: finish with a winning record, and this Browns team is

989
00:49:31,360 --> 00:49:34,360
Speaker 2: just they're not playing for anything here. So I'm a

990
00:49:34,440 --> 00:49:37,399
Speaker 2: little shocked to see that. At a book I'm looking

991
00:49:37,400 --> 00:49:40,279
Speaker 2: at right now, it's sixty percent of the handle and

992
00:49:40,320 --> 00:49:42,000
Speaker 2: seventy five percent of the bets right now are on

993
00:49:42,120 --> 00:49:45,680
Speaker 2: the Browns as a seven point dog. I'm shocked the

994
00:49:46,040 --> 00:49:47,239
Speaker 2: public loves them that much.

995
00:49:47,280 --> 00:49:49,480
Speaker 3: I just thought everyone would be teasing this Bengals team,

996
00:49:49,520 --> 00:49:51,480
Speaker 3: like all the teasers, all the parlays were tied to them.

997
00:49:51,520 --> 00:49:55,399
Speaker 3: But I guess everyone's just all in on the Browns team,

998
00:49:55,400 --> 00:49:59,000
Speaker 3: even though the magic is Joe Flacco and Miles Garrett

999
00:49:59,040 --> 00:50:01,399
Speaker 3: on defense and those guys aren't playing here like yep,

1000
00:50:01,600 --> 00:50:04,719
Speaker 3: there's just no reason to back the brown So yeah,

1001
00:50:05,640 --> 00:50:07,319
Speaker 3: if you thought those two big one number you want

1002
00:50:07,360 --> 00:50:09,280
Speaker 3: to back to Browns, don't step in this trap.

1003
00:50:09,480 --> 00:50:11,479
Speaker 2: Take take Cincinnati at this big number.

1004
00:50:13,160 --> 00:50:16,240
Speaker 1: Before we get to our money line Underdog Round Robin

1005
00:50:16,520 --> 00:50:23,040
Speaker 1: reminder that the week eighteen contest tiebreaker is total rushing

1006
00:50:23,120 --> 00:50:27,600
Speaker 1: yards on Sunday night, Football Action Network predictive analyst Billy

1007
00:50:27,600 --> 00:50:30,880
Speaker 1: Ward writes a weekly article about tiebreaker strategy, and a

1008
00:50:31,000 --> 00:50:33,560
Speaker 1: link to that article can be found in this episode description.

1009
00:50:33,680 --> 00:50:35,120
Speaker 1: If you want to leg up in the contest the

1010
00:50:35,200 --> 00:50:37,680
Speaker 1: last week of the contest, good luck everybody. By the way,

1011
00:50:37,800 --> 00:50:43,040
Speaker 1: did we officially did we officially make the bills our foxhole?

1012
00:50:43,440 --> 00:50:45,280
Speaker 1: I just want to be clear, Okay, so the bills

1013
00:50:45,360 --> 00:50:48,600
Speaker 1: are our foxhol Okay, everybody make a note.

1014
00:50:48,719 --> 00:50:50,440
Speaker 2: You know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a

1015
00:50:50,560 --> 00:50:53,040
Speaker 2: foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I commit to

1016
00:50:53,080 --> 00:50:53,399
Speaker 2: a city.

1017
00:50:53,640 --> 00:50:54,560
Speaker 4: I'm a foxhole guy.

1018
00:50:55,120 --> 00:50:59,480
Speaker 1: Bills are the foxhole. Let's talk about moneyline Underdog Round

1019
00:50:59,760 --> 00:51:07,160
Speaker 1: rob Been dog blocks your dog, Your dog blocks mot dog.

1020
00:51:08,520 --> 00:51:13,560
Speaker 1: This is how I wrote down. Are you ready? Yeah, Panthers, Yeah, Bears,

1021
00:51:14,239 --> 00:51:19,160
Speaker 1: Falcons Okay, Okay than Panthers, Bears, Falcons, Ravens.

1022
00:51:21,520 --> 00:51:22,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't hate the Ravens.

1023
00:51:22,719 --> 00:51:24,960
Speaker 3: It's a little chalky like again usually when I look

1024
00:51:25,000 --> 00:51:26,319
Speaker 3: for these things, me and you want to go away

1025
00:51:26,440 --> 00:51:28,719
Speaker 3: low like Arizona last week. I think like five percent

1026
00:51:28,760 --> 00:51:30,799
Speaker 3: of the bets around Arizona's the money line. The money

1027
00:51:30,840 --> 00:51:32,840
Speaker 3: line is actually very heavy right now for the Ravens.

1028
00:51:32,920 --> 00:51:36,040
Speaker 3: More bets handle and bets right now are on the

1029
00:51:36,120 --> 00:51:37,400
Speaker 3: Ravens money line than Pittsburgh.

1030
00:51:37,719 --> 00:51:39,560
Speaker 1: Who do you got then if you want to replace,

1031
00:51:39,640 --> 00:51:40,759
Speaker 1: who do you want to replace with?

1032
00:51:40,880 --> 00:51:42,879
Speaker 2: Whom you already said Tennessee? Right?

1033
00:51:43,360 --> 00:51:44,440
Speaker 1: Oh, I didn't say the Titans.

1034
00:51:44,640 --> 00:51:50,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, love Titans, So I would have Titans giants. You

1035
00:51:50,640 --> 00:51:55,000
Speaker 2: said the Bears, Bears, Panthers, that's fo Yeah.

1036
00:51:55,600 --> 00:51:57,680
Speaker 1: I had the Falcons. I had the Falcons in there.

1037
00:51:57,960 --> 00:51:59,439
Speaker 2: Falcons. Yeah, I love that five.

1038
00:52:00,000 --> 00:52:08,520
Speaker 1: Okay, Titans, Panthers, Bears, Falcons, giants are our money line

1039
00:52:09,280 --> 00:52:13,880
Speaker 1: underdog round, Robin Simon, I want you to make Little Caesars,

1040
00:52:13,920 --> 00:52:16,919
Speaker 1: which is the official pizza sponsor of the NFL, part

1041
00:52:17,000 --> 00:52:21,920
Speaker 1: of your game day. It is Simon or is it Simon?

1042
00:52:22,000 --> 00:52:25,880
Speaker 1: Time to increase your intake of Little Caesar's Pizza to

1043
00:52:26,120 --> 00:52:30,279
Speaker 1: prepare your body for the NFL playoffs. It is time

1044
00:52:31,239 --> 00:52:34,680
Speaker 1: order online during our Pizza Pizza pregame one hour before

1045
00:52:34,800 --> 00:52:38,000
Speaker 1: NFL games and get ready for some football and fun.

1046
00:52:38,120 --> 00:52:40,800
Speaker 1: Choose your favorite Little Caesars pizza or pick the toppings

1047
00:52:40,880 --> 00:52:42,960
Speaker 1: you crave. Simon, what do you think about this new

1048
00:52:43,000 --> 00:52:45,239
Speaker 1: motto I invented right here, right now on the fly

1049
00:52:45,400 --> 00:52:48,240
Speaker 1: while we were talking about the Cincinnati Bengals. If into

1050
00:52:48,360 --> 00:52:52,800
Speaker 1: the playoffs, you want your team thrust, be sure to

1051
00:52:53,239 --> 00:52:59,080
Speaker 1: order Crazy Rust. However you order your pizza, you win.

1052
00:52:59,320 --> 00:53:03,680
Speaker 1: And speaking of winning, everyone scores with convenient delivery or

1053
00:53:03,800 --> 00:53:07,120
Speaker 1: our in store pizza portal pickup. So grab some friends

1054
00:53:07,160 --> 00:53:10,440
Speaker 1: and enjoy a few slices during the game. Don't forget

1055
00:53:10,880 --> 00:53:12,600
Speaker 1: you can catch every episode of The Favorites live on

1056
00:53:12,719 --> 00:53:15,680
Speaker 1: YouTube every Tuesday Thursday Sunday. So if you're watching on YouTube,

1057
00:53:15,960 --> 00:53:18,560
Speaker 1: give us a like subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page.

1058
00:53:18,560 --> 00:53:21,839
Speaker 1: All right, you just mentioned you're very heavy on Cincinnati.

1059
00:53:22,480 --> 00:53:24,719
Speaker 1: Is that one of your biggest bets? What are your

1060
00:53:24,760 --> 00:53:25,640
Speaker 1: biggest bets of the week?

1061
00:53:27,239 --> 00:53:31,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, and biggest bets is all relative here. People like

1062
00:53:31,600 --> 00:53:34,480
Speaker 3: this week I kind of ramp up for playoffs and

1063
00:53:34,680 --> 00:53:36,000
Speaker 3: if there's a big position I can take it.

1064
00:53:36,040 --> 00:53:36,879
Speaker 2: I have good insight info.

1065
00:53:37,000 --> 00:53:38,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would hammer that, I would let you guys know,

1066
00:53:38,920 --> 00:53:42,319
Speaker 3: but you know, most of the leaks weren't really that great,

1067
00:53:42,400 --> 00:53:44,799
Speaker 3: right Schefter kind of leaked everything, and we all knew

1068
00:53:44,800 --> 00:53:46,279
Speaker 3: that the quarterbacks we're going to be this week, so

1069
00:53:46,760 --> 00:53:49,799
Speaker 3: there wasn't a crazy amount of value, And a lot

1070
00:53:49,840 --> 00:53:51,400
Speaker 3: of what I need to do now is take positions

1071
00:53:51,400 --> 00:53:53,600
Speaker 3: to hedge out on future bets, which is basically like

1072
00:53:53,719 --> 00:53:58,200
Speaker 3: just setting your position up. And for this week, we're

1073
00:53:58,239 --> 00:54:02,360
Speaker 3: looking at standalone games like my biggest bets. Yeah, for

1074
00:54:02,480 --> 00:54:05,400
Speaker 3: Saturday on the Ravens we already talked about, on the

1075
00:54:05,480 --> 00:54:12,880
Speaker 3: Colts for Sunday games. Yeah, I love Cincy, love the Titans,

1076
00:54:13,360 --> 00:54:15,640
Speaker 3: not Panthers, shockingly, like I bet the Panthers. They're not

1077
00:54:15,680 --> 00:54:18,320
Speaker 3: going to be one of my biggest bets. Love the Giants,

1078
00:54:19,040 --> 00:54:23,040
Speaker 3: like the Chargers. You know, cap it off Bears and Bills,

1079
00:54:23,160 --> 00:54:25,600
Speaker 3: Like I love both of them. I know the Bears

1080
00:54:25,680 --> 00:54:27,560
Speaker 3: is playing a little bit of house money if you've

1081
00:54:27,560 --> 00:54:29,400
Speaker 3: been betting them like we have these last couple of weeks,

1082
00:54:29,480 --> 00:54:31,200
Speaker 3: Like I've just been loading up on them every week

1083
00:54:31,360 --> 00:54:34,160
Speaker 3: just because I just think they're undervalued, and this week

1084
00:54:34,640 --> 00:54:35,320
Speaker 3: nothing's changed.

1085
00:54:35,320 --> 00:54:37,279
Speaker 2: I think the three is it's too good of a

1086
00:54:37,360 --> 00:54:38,080
Speaker 2: number to pass on.

1087
00:54:38,200 --> 00:54:40,520
Speaker 3: So yeah, if I was gonna make one of my

1088
00:54:40,600 --> 00:54:43,840
Speaker 3: five bigger bets, the Bears is definitely the top three.

1089
00:54:44,160 --> 00:54:46,600
Speaker 1: Question from a loyal listener. I am down to the

1090
00:54:46,719 --> 00:54:51,239
Speaker 1: last week in my pick'em contest, down two games from

1091
00:54:51,480 --> 00:54:55,279
Speaker 1: first place. Any strategies for making the ground in the

1092
00:54:55,320 --> 00:54:58,640
Speaker 1: final week the lines locked early in the week, wondering

1093
00:54:58,680 --> 00:55:01,920
Speaker 1: the best way to gain ground and picking five games

1094
00:55:02,480 --> 00:55:07,000
Speaker 1: in the final week. This is always tricky, right, because

1095
00:55:08,280 --> 00:55:12,279
Speaker 1: if you're two games back, you got to make big

1096
00:55:12,440 --> 00:55:17,040
Speaker 1: bets that are countered. This is where game theory becomes everything.

1097
00:55:17,160 --> 00:55:19,920
Speaker 1: You go to assume what other people are picking, and

1098
00:55:20,040 --> 00:55:22,040
Speaker 1: you got to run in the opposite direction.

1099
00:55:22,800 --> 00:55:24,040
Speaker 2: So much game theory here.

1100
00:55:24,600 --> 00:55:25,880
Speaker 3: Basically want to do is you want to go to

1101
00:55:25,960 --> 00:55:28,640
Speaker 3: that guy you're against who's above you. You want to

1102
00:55:28,640 --> 00:55:30,719
Speaker 3: see what he likes doing on a weekly basis. Say

1103
00:55:30,719 --> 00:55:32,440
Speaker 3: you go to his thing and he's a guy who

1104
00:55:32,480 --> 00:55:34,759
Speaker 3: loves betting the dogs. You kind of want to go

1105
00:55:34,840 --> 00:55:36,719
Speaker 3: with a couple favorites, right. You want to hope you

1106
00:55:36,840 --> 00:55:38,719
Speaker 3: catch him on the other side of your bets because

1107
00:55:38,760 --> 00:55:41,560
Speaker 3: you're if it's winner take all, you have nothing to lose, Like,

1108
00:55:41,840 --> 00:55:44,560
Speaker 3: who cares if you come in second or last place,

1109
00:55:44,680 --> 00:55:46,400
Speaker 3: Like you're trying to get that number one spot. So

1110
00:55:46,880 --> 00:55:50,160
Speaker 3: if you know his his betting style and his habits,

1111
00:55:50,160 --> 00:55:53,480
Speaker 3: and he likes betting dogs, try to have three favorites

1112
00:55:53,520 --> 00:55:55,560
Speaker 3: in there. If you know that he loves betting the favorites,

1113
00:55:55,960 --> 00:55:57,480
Speaker 3: try to have three or four dogs in there. And

1114
00:55:57,520 --> 00:55:59,960
Speaker 3: you're you're hoping you're on the opposite side of him.

1115
00:56:00,040 --> 00:56:01,920
Speaker 3: So you're now forcing it in there. Like you know,

1116
00:56:01,960 --> 00:56:04,440
Speaker 3: we already talked about a game we like in that

1117
00:56:04,920 --> 00:56:08,240
Speaker 3: Bills game. If you know, if you go through his stuff,

1118
00:56:08,280 --> 00:56:11,120
Speaker 3: you know for a fact he's going to be backing Miami.

1119
00:56:11,760 --> 00:56:14,440
Speaker 3: You should put the Bills in. Be a psychopath, go

1120
00:56:14,680 --> 00:56:17,160
Speaker 3: research them, figure out what their betting style is, how

1121
00:56:17,200 --> 00:56:19,440
Speaker 3: they bet every week, and try to counter that. You

1122
00:56:19,520 --> 00:56:20,719
Speaker 3: just got to figure out what his picks are on

1123
00:56:20,800 --> 00:56:21,560
Speaker 3: trying to go against it.

1124
00:56:22,600 --> 00:56:25,040
Speaker 1: Now, that's the psychopathic about trying to come in first, Simon,

1125
00:56:25,360 --> 00:56:30,040
Speaker 1: That's why we play the game. As a reminder, The

1126
00:56:30,080 --> 00:56:33,520
Speaker 1: Favorites Podcast is presented by bet three six five bet

1127
00:56:33,520 --> 00:56:35,600
Speaker 1: three six five doesn't do ordinary. That's why you get

1128
00:56:35,640 --> 00:56:38,160
Speaker 1: more boosts with them than with anyone else. Every day

1129
00:56:38,239 --> 00:56:40,279
Speaker 1: they power up the odds one hundreds of bets to

1130
00:56:40,360 --> 00:56:42,560
Speaker 1: give you a chance to win more. Bet three sixty

1131
00:56:42,600 --> 00:56:45,640
Speaker 1: five boost specific markets your winnings and even parlays, and

1132
00:56:45,719 --> 00:56:47,719
Speaker 1: they don't stop there. Keep an eye out for their

1133
00:56:47,760 --> 00:56:51,759
Speaker 1: biggest and best odds with the incredible super boost. Check

1134
00:56:51,760 --> 00:56:54,359
Speaker 1: out the boost and see why it's never ordinary at

1135
00:56:54,360 --> 00:56:57,680
Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five. Must be twenty one or older

1136
00:56:57,840 --> 00:57:01,920
Speaker 1: and present in Colorado, I will Louisiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia,

1137
00:57:02,560 --> 00:57:05,359
Speaker 1: or eighteen or older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one

1138
00:57:05,400 --> 00:57:07,480
Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in

1139
00:57:07,560 --> 00:57:11,120
Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply all right before we get

1140
00:57:11,120 --> 00:57:13,480
Speaker 1: out of here. Normally, this is where we would have

1141
00:57:13,840 --> 00:57:18,320
Speaker 1: our director of research, oft mentioned Evan Abrams, give us

1142
00:57:18,360 --> 00:57:21,640
Speaker 1: some final nuggets to make us smarter than all of

1143
00:57:21,680 --> 00:57:24,880
Speaker 1: our friends. Evan is unavailable today, but he did file

1144
00:57:25,000 --> 00:57:29,560
Speaker 1: his nuggets. They will be read with vim and vigor

1145
00:57:30,400 --> 00:57:32,400
Speaker 1: by producer Matt Mitchell.

1146
00:57:33,040 --> 00:57:36,480
Speaker 2: Okay, last but not least, Uncle Mitch, Hello.

1147
00:57:36,480 --> 00:57:39,320
Speaker 5: Thank you, chand I'm sure Evan is either at a

1148
00:57:39,440 --> 00:57:43,880
Speaker 5: doctor's appointment or meeting a contact in a Russian bathhouse

1149
00:57:43,920 --> 00:57:45,880
Speaker 5: of some kind. But I will do my best to

1150
00:57:45,960 --> 00:57:49,040
Speaker 5: fill in some bonus nuggets before I dive into the

1151
00:57:49,080 --> 00:57:53,240
Speaker 5: big three. The first is underdogs AFC North Divisional games

1152
00:57:53,680 --> 00:57:58,440
Speaker 5: total cash cow fifty nine percent against the spread last decade,

1153
00:57:58,600 --> 00:58:02,480
Speaker 5: best of any division, twenty three and twelve against.

1154
00:58:02,160 --> 00:58:03,880
Speaker 2: The spread last three years.

1155
00:58:04,640 --> 00:58:08,320
Speaker 5: I believe that is Baltimore and the Browns this week,

1156
00:58:08,560 --> 00:58:12,080
Speaker 5: and a really fun one. Robert Sala has coached eight

1157
00:58:12,400 --> 00:58:15,080
Speaker 5: division road games for the New York Jets. He has

1158
00:58:15,160 --> 00:58:19,520
Speaker 5: lost all eight of those games. Okay, big nugs here.

1159
00:58:19,640 --> 00:58:24,440
Speaker 5: Number one Dan Campbell Covering Machine podcast favorite Dan Campbell

1160
00:58:24,520 --> 00:58:27,520
Speaker 5: is now thirty eight and twenty four against the spread

1161
00:58:27,600 --> 00:58:30,680
Speaker 5: in his head coaching career. That is over sixty one percent.

1162
00:58:31,080 --> 00:58:34,480
Speaker 5: Since nineteen ninety one, hundred and fifteen men have coached

1163
00:58:34,520 --> 00:58:38,360
Speaker 5: fifty or more NFL games. Dan fucking Campbell has the

1164
00:58:38,480 --> 00:58:41,360
Speaker 5: best against the spread win percentage of all of them

1165
00:58:42,040 --> 00:58:45,200
Speaker 5: over the last three years. The Detroit Lions are now

1166
00:58:45,320 --> 00:58:49,000
Speaker 5: sixty eight percent against the spread, the best three year

1167
00:58:49,080 --> 00:58:52,360
Speaker 5: stretch against the spread for any team since the Patriots

1168
00:58:52,400 --> 00:58:56,440
Speaker 5: did this between twenty sixteen and twenty eighteen, when they

1169
00:58:56,560 --> 00:58:58,360
Speaker 5: covered seventy percent of their games.

1170
00:58:58,800 --> 00:59:03,120
Speaker 1: Minnesota Viking big Balls bet of the Week. That's why,

1171
00:59:04,200 --> 00:59:06,800
Speaker 1: That's why it's the big Balls bet of the Week, Simon.

1172
00:59:06,880 --> 00:59:10,800
Speaker 1: I've never been more convinced or confident of our pick.

1173
00:59:11,240 --> 00:59:15,800
Speaker 1: We love as Lizzo likes to sing, the Minnesota Vikings.

1174
00:59:16,560 --> 00:59:19,920
Speaker 5: Instead of that drop, I'm gonna put in Dan Campbell

1175
00:59:20,120 --> 00:59:21,600
Speaker 5: saying the word asshole right here.

1176
00:59:22,080 --> 00:59:24,560
Speaker 2: No, there's no way to sugarcoat that. You know I'm

1177
00:59:24,560 --> 00:59:25,919
Speaker 2: an asshole, So okay.

1178
00:59:27,040 --> 00:59:31,680
Speaker 5: Number two the stink of Cliff Kingsbury Lingers. The Arizona

1179
00:59:31,760 --> 00:59:35,200
Speaker 5: Cardinals have struggled versus the NFC West recently. They are

1180
00:59:35,360 --> 00:59:39,080
Speaker 5: one and thirteen against the spread in their last fourteen

1181
00:59:39,200 --> 00:59:42,880
Speaker 5: division games. They haven't won or covered a division home

1182
00:59:42,960 --> 00:59:49,360
Speaker 5: game since November twenty twenty two versus the Rams and

1183
00:59:49,600 --> 00:59:55,479
Speaker 5: finally AFC North dogfight. The Ravens are twenty and four

1184
00:59:55,880 --> 00:59:58,440
Speaker 5: against the spread in their last twenty four games as

1185
00:59:58,480 --> 01:00:01,720
Speaker 5: a dog, including tw and five against the spread since

1186
01:00:02,040 --> 01:00:06,320
Speaker 5: twenty eighteen, second best in the NFL in that span,

1187
01:00:06,440 --> 01:00:10,800
Speaker 5: behind only the Steelers. And when Mike Tomlin and John

1188
01:00:10,840 --> 01:00:15,040
Speaker 5: Harbaugh meet, the underdog is now twenty three, five and three.

1189
01:00:15,640 --> 01:00:21,000
Speaker 1: That's over eighty two percent. Thanks boys. You know what's interesting, Simon.

1190
01:00:21,600 --> 01:00:25,880
Speaker 1: Normally before this segment, Matt Mitchell would be in the

1191
01:00:26,000 --> 01:00:30,240
Speaker 1: chat furiously telling us hurry up, go faster. But now

1192
01:00:30,320 --> 01:00:35,680
Speaker 1: that he's reading the nuggets, they are Shakespearean in tone

1193
01:00:35,880 --> 01:00:38,000
Speaker 1: and length, and we just take our own sweet time.

1194
01:00:38,520 --> 01:00:40,960
Speaker 1: Go as long as you want, Matt Mitchell. Let's work

1195
01:00:41,000 --> 01:00:42,280
Speaker 1: around your schedule.

1196
01:00:42,800 --> 01:00:43,080
Speaker 5: Wow.

1197
01:00:43,320 --> 01:00:49,080
Speaker 1: Thanks chev Let's go mad to recap the fox O

1198
01:00:49,200 --> 01:00:51,680
Speaker 1: Buffalo minus three. We're fucking doing it. This is a

1199
01:00:52,080 --> 01:00:56,880
Speaker 1: this is personal cause. Producers Tito and Matt Mitchell are

1200
01:00:57,520 --> 01:01:00,880
Speaker 1: natives of the Western New York region, Matt Mitchell and

1201
01:01:01,040 --> 01:01:07,920
Speaker 1: South Florida Tito. Tito spends most pre podcast banter talking

1202
01:01:08,000 --> 01:01:13,080
Speaker 1: about the ear surgery he's getting or South Florida sports.

1203
01:01:13,520 --> 01:01:15,480
Speaker 1: So we're going with Buffalo, which means we're side with

1204
01:01:15,520 --> 01:01:18,440
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell and I'm sorry, Tito. Tennessee plus five, as

1205
01:01:18,480 --> 01:01:22,160
Speaker 1: Simon says, exec decision is Chicago plus three, Big Balls,

1206
01:01:22,280 --> 01:01:26,520
Speaker 1: Minnesota plus three and a half our round Robin Carolina, Chicago,

1207
01:01:26,840 --> 01:01:31,200
Speaker 1: Atlanta Giants, Tennessee. Simon, if we had to lock in five, right,

1208
01:01:31,280 --> 01:01:38,680
Speaker 1: now the phase five. For now, assuming numbers are reflective

1209
01:01:39,800 --> 01:01:42,840
Speaker 1: in the contest of what we are seeing, knowing that

1210
01:01:42,920 --> 01:01:46,120
Speaker 1: they'd be half point lower. Let's say I think we

1211
01:01:47,040 --> 01:01:49,520
Speaker 1: if it's a round number, So Bears is three right

1212
01:01:49,600 --> 01:01:51,320
Speaker 1: now in the contest, I'm betting it's two and a half.

1213
01:01:52,040 --> 01:01:56,080
Speaker 1: I bet we'd go with Carolina four and a half,

1214
01:01:56,800 --> 01:02:01,160
Speaker 1: Minnesota three and a half, Titans five and a half,

1215
01:02:02,640 --> 01:02:07,480
Speaker 1: Buffalo minus three and a half. It's three and a

1216
01:02:07,480 --> 01:02:10,280
Speaker 1: half in the contest, it's gonna be all right. So

1217
01:02:10,640 --> 01:02:11,960
Speaker 1: if it's three and a half in the contest, I'm

1218
01:02:11,960 --> 01:02:14,560
Speaker 1: not sure I would do it. Giants will probably be

1219
01:02:15,720 --> 01:02:17,440
Speaker 1: four and a half. I think I would still do it,

1220
01:02:17,800 --> 01:02:19,440
Speaker 1: and then the Bears would probably be two and a half.

1221
01:02:19,480 --> 01:02:23,480
Speaker 1: So I think it's gonna come down to Giants, Bears,

1222
01:02:23,680 --> 01:02:25,000
Speaker 1: Buffalo for the final two.

1223
01:02:25,600 --> 01:02:27,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, I gotta I gotta get one favorite in there,

1224
01:02:27,880 --> 01:02:31,160
Speaker 3: so I might have to force in the Bills or

1225
01:02:31,920 --> 01:02:33,480
Speaker 3: you know what about that stat he just read us,

1226
01:02:33,480 --> 01:02:35,120
Speaker 3: do you not want to kind of take the Seahawks Now,

1227
01:02:35,640 --> 01:02:37,440
Speaker 3: It's like, I don't know, we need one.

1228
01:02:37,640 --> 01:02:40,680
Speaker 2: We need one favorite in there, so we do we do.

1229
01:02:40,880 --> 01:02:43,280
Speaker 2: Hopefully it ends up on the Bills because of all

1230
01:02:43,440 --> 01:02:46,440
Speaker 2: all the ones, I wouldn't hate myself the least if

1231
01:02:46,800 --> 01:02:48,600
Speaker 2: we take the Bills Minster and half in the lands

1232
01:02:48,640 --> 01:02:50,560
Speaker 2: on three rather than take Seahawks.

1233
01:02:50,960 --> 01:02:55,840
Speaker 1: Also, why wouldn't we want to be in agony on

1234
01:02:55,960 --> 01:02:58,840
Speaker 1: the final Sunday and know we need one game on

1235
01:02:59,000 --> 01:03:02,560
Speaker 1: Sunday night for all all the marbles while we're about

1236
01:03:02,600 --> 01:03:06,280
Speaker 1: to podcast, so we'll know, like by that time, it's

1237
01:03:06,320 --> 01:03:08,320
Speaker 1: probably gonna will probably be two and two and that'll

1238
01:03:08,320 --> 01:03:13,520
Speaker 1: be the different thing. Always a download us from Spotify,

1239
01:03:13,760 --> 01:03:17,080
Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your pods, rate review, subscribe.

1240
01:03:17,080 --> 01:03:19,000
Speaker 1: We was five stars. Say whatever you want feedback as

1241
01:03:19,040 --> 01:03:25,040
Speaker 1: a gift. We will be back Sunday night, seven thirty,

1242
01:03:25,160 --> 01:03:28,360
Speaker 1: the final Sunday show of the regular season. Don't forget

1243
01:03:28,560 --> 01:03:32,360
Speaker 1: RSVP for our live event Simon and I Sunday, January fourteen,

1244
01:03:32,400 --> 01:03:36,480
Speaker 1: Shepherd and the Knucklehead. RSVP link is in the description page.

1245
01:03:36,760 --> 01:03:39,959
Speaker 1: Free entry, free drinks. We're gonna watch games together wild

1246
01:03:40,040 --> 01:03:42,840
Speaker 1: Card Weekend that Sunday, then we'll do a live show.

1247
01:03:42,880 --> 01:03:47,200
Speaker 1: We're also doing a live event watch party me, Stucky Kerner, Raybond,

1248
01:03:47,240 --> 01:03:52,120
Speaker 1: the Whole Gang January thirteenth, That Saturday, RSVP, free entry,

1249
01:03:52,160 --> 01:03:58,320
Speaker 1: free drinks, all that good stuff. Until next time. Love You.

1250
01:04:00,800 --> 01:04:10,160
Speaker 5: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1251
01:04:10,640 --> 01:04:13,400
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1252
01:04:13,720 --> 01:04:16,360
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1253
01:04:16,440 --> 01:04:17,160
Speaker 1: hundred gambler