Speaker 1: Hey there everyone, Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast,
Speaker 1: brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan
Speaker 1: Harris and you can find me on Twitter at Dan
Speaker 1: Harris Ady. We are recording our usual Thursday episode on
Speaker 1: Wednesday this week in lin of Thanksgiving. Good news is
Speaker 1: that the Thursday games are on the table, so maybe
Speaker 1: you'll even be able to get some betting action in
Speaker 1: with your turkey and pumpkin pie. As always, we're going
Speaker 1: to be breaking down some of our favorite and our
Speaker 1: least favorite bets for the week thirteen NFL slate. And
Speaker 1: with me to talk about it all is Steve Merrill,
Speaker 1: a professional handicapper and owner of Pro sportsinfo dot com.
Speaker 1: You can find him on Twitter at his name at
Speaker 1: Steve Merrill. That's me E R R I L Steve.
Speaker 1: How's it going, Hey?
Speaker 2: Dan?
Speaker 1: Doing well? What's your Thanksgiving look like?
Speaker 2: Usually?
Speaker 1: I mean, are you just parked them from the TV
Speaker 1: watching the games all day? You got a big family thing?
Speaker 1: What's going on?
Speaker 2: You know? This is my twenty fourth year as a
Speaker 2: full time professional handicapper. I started Pro SPORTSMFO dot com
Speaker 2: back in ninetheen ninety six, so twenty four football seasons
Speaker 2: now over half my life as a professional. So unfortunately
Speaker 2: this time of year, the holidays is the busiest time
Speaker 2: of year for me. You know, my off season is
Speaker 2: July when there's a little bit of baseball going on,
Speaker 2: and yeah, this time of year with the holidays, it's busy,
Speaker 2: but it's fun also because you get the family element.
Speaker 2: You also get the football element. And know it's the
Speaker 2: same as the bowl season coming up next month with
Speaker 2: college football. So yeah, the holidays and the weekends, it's
Speaker 2: kind of a reverse holl you know, Tuesday and Wednesday
Speaker 2: or my off days. The weekends and the holidays are busy,
Speaker 2: and Thanksgivings great because you get that tripleheader of NFL action.
Speaker 1: Of course. Yeah, well, as we were talking about before
Speaker 1: we started recording, this is not your first show of
Speaker 1: the day. You've been doing quite a bit of work today,
Speaker 1: So let's get onto it and we can get you
Speaker 1: on so you can have you know, five minutes to
Speaker 1: catch your breath on the day. As usual, Steve and
Speaker 1: I are going to be breaking down three of our favorite
Speaker 1: bets of the week, one bet to avoid and one
Speaker 1: prop bet that we're interested in. But before we get
Speaker 1: into it, let's do some full disclosure revisit last week's picks.
Speaker 1: I hit on the Seahawks getting one and a half
Speaker 1: from the Eagles, Bengals getting six and a half from
Speaker 1: the Steelers, but I missed on the Packers and the
Speaker 1: Niners over forty seven and a half, and on my
Speaker 1: top prop, which was Oldell Beckham Junior going over one
Speaker 1: hundred yards, he fell just a bit short. Our guest
Speaker 1: Greg Smith hit on the Jets getting three from the
Speaker 1: Raiders and the Ravens giving three did the Rams, but
Speaker 1: he missed on the Dolphins getting ten and a half
Speaker 1: against the Browns and Darren Waller over fifty receiving yards.
Speaker 1: So a bit of a mix bag for both of us, Steve.
Speaker 1: People have turkey to eat, injuries to fake so they
Speaker 1: can line bed and watch football. So go ahead and
Speaker 1: get us started. What's your first pick of the week.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we're gonna start with one of this. We're gonna
Speaker 2: use all the Sunday games here, so give the listeners
Speaker 2: a little extra time to get him into their joining this,
Speaker 2: you know on Friday or Saturday. And the first game
Speaker 2: I want to look at is actually one of the
Speaker 2: early kickoff games on Sunday, December first, by the way,
Speaker 2: so we're looking at games all of next month taking place,
Speaker 2: so no November games here. It's hard to believe December
Speaker 2: is here. But you can take a look at the
Speaker 2: green Bay Packers though they're at the Giants, and this
Speaker 2: line's been moving around this week. You know, seven is
Speaker 2: a very key number in the NFL, the second most
Speaker 2: key number after three. About five percent of the time
Speaker 2: favorites win back exactly seven points, and this line was
Speaker 2: seven and a half initially early in the week. It's
Speaker 2: not a solid six and a half across the board
Speaker 2: in almost all locations, and I think there's some value
Speaker 2: now with the Packers laying less than a touchdown. This
Speaker 2: is a green Bay team that was in a terrible
Speaker 2: matchup last Sunday night against San Francisco. You know, many
Speaker 2: of the shows I did last week asked me about
Speaker 2: that game because it was a big spotlight game, and
Speaker 2: one of the things I jumped out to me was
Speaker 2: the fact that the forty nine Ers pass defense has
Speaker 2: been as good as anyone's in the league this year,
Speaker 2: and Green Bay does not run the ball well. They're
Speaker 2: a pass happy offense with Aaron Rodgers so it was
Speaker 2: a terrible matchup. It showed as they managed only eight points.
Speaker 2: But I think this is a bounce back spot. Now,
Speaker 2: I always like to play Class eight teams, whether it
Speaker 2: be the NBA or the NFL. Awful loss. Packer's still
Speaker 2: eight and three on the season, the Giants two to nine.
Speaker 2: This is a focused spot. And then he had the
Speaker 2: fact that the Giants have one of the worst pass
Speaker 2: defenses in the NFL game up over eight yards per pass.
Speaker 2: Now to can trust that with San Francisco. The Niners
Speaker 2: allow four point six, the Giants allow eight point one.
Speaker 2: That's how much of a difference it is from last
Speaker 2: week to this week. I think the Packers take full
Speaker 2: advantage in a double win.
Speaker 1: Yeah, everything sets up well for the Packers in this game, particularly,
Speaker 1: you know, just you know, it's more of a narrative
Speaker 1: at this point, you know, rather than you know, statistical
Speaker 1: sports handicapping or anything like that. But obviously they're pretty
Speaker 1: desperate now for the win, and they were embarrassed on
Speaker 1: national television, So this sets up as a game where
Speaker 1: they're going to come in and go hard. One thing
Speaker 1: that I'm i'm I want to ask you about since
Speaker 1: you're obviously professional handicapper is from everything I'm looking at,
Speaker 1: you know, I don't have all the data, but it
Speaker 1: looks like the vast majority of both the number of
Speaker 1: bets and the money are coming in on the Packers
Speaker 1: and this game. But I'm not sure why the line
Speaker 1: then has gone down from seven and a half to six
Speaker 1: and a half. Is that just a factor of the
Speaker 1: fact that, you know, the look at line of seven
Speaker 1: and a half the Packers looked so terrible coming in,
Speaker 1: you know, against the Niners, that would account for the
Speaker 1: line movement, or because you know, ordinarily, when you see
Speaker 1: you know, that much money in particular coming in on
Speaker 1: one side, you would expect the line to go up
Speaker 1: rather than down.
Speaker 2: Yeah, to be honest, the look ahead seven and a
Speaker 2: half line really was, as you said, before that game
Speaker 2: kicked off on Sunday night. Most sportsbooks ever opened any
Speaker 2: higher than seven after that, and some that open up
Speaker 2: on Monday and Tuesday have always been six and a half.
Speaker 2: So gosh, you know, there was briefly a seven and
Speaker 2: a half out there, but realistically the opener was probably
Speaker 2: seven even six and a half. But you bring up
Speaker 2: a good point. Normally in the NFL, I am rarely
Speaker 2: on the side of the public, and this does look
Speaker 2: like a public pick. I think it might be a
Speaker 2: little less public though, as you mentioned, because Green Bay
Speaker 2: looked so bad last week and the odds makers probably
Speaker 2: adjusted that in. I wouldn't be surprised to see this
Speaker 2: game hit seven though by Sunday. I think the public
Speaker 2: will come back in and push it back to that
Speaker 2: key number.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I do like it below the key number. But
Speaker 1: you know, look, I agree with the point about the public,
Speaker 1: but sometimes it's all right. I mean, the public exactly
Speaker 1: certainly back in the Ravens this past week against the Rams,
Speaker 1: so I was fine with that. As for me, I'm
Speaker 1: actually going to take the Rams, who were embarrassed laying
Speaker 1: three did the Cardinals, and the Cardinals have been a
Speaker 1: tough team to bet against. There almost been a guaranteed
Speaker 1: cover for pretty much the entire season. They're five to
Speaker 1: one and one against the spread over their last seven games.
Speaker 1: They're home, they're coming off a bye, So certainly, on
Speaker 1: the surface, things look good here for the Cardinals. Not
Speaker 1: as well for the Rams to cover the three points spread.
Speaker 1: But you know, I just mentioned how the Packers are
Speaker 1: extremely desperate. They're not quite as desperate as the Rams.
Speaker 1: I mean, look, they're six and five with the Vikings,
Speaker 1: the Packers, the Seahawks. They have almost no chance at
Speaker 1: a wild card if they don't win this game, and
Speaker 1: I think they're going to and I think they're going
Speaker 1: to win big. The offense has looked broken. Jared Goff
Speaker 1: did not throw a touchdown pass in the month of November.
Speaker 1: They've been held to seventeen points or less in three
Speaker 1: straight games. But this is kind of the matchup that
Speaker 1: the Doctor ordered. The Cardinals, ring twenty ninth in defensive DVOA,
Speaker 1: thirtieth in points allowed per game, thirty first in yards
Speaker 1: allowed per game, thirty second in passing yards allowed per game.
Speaker 1: This just gives me that feeling where you know, the
Speaker 1: Rams got shut down by the forty nine ers a
Speaker 1: few weeks back, and then they bounce back big and
Speaker 1: destroyed the Falcons thirty seven to ten. Their offensive line
Speaker 1: is terrible, but they have all three of their receivers back.
Speaker 1: They're going to be able to use play action. I
Speaker 1: think they're going to be able to get on back
Speaker 1: on track here and put up some points offensively. And
Speaker 1: the Cardinals look they'll be able to put up points too.
Speaker 1: They've been doing it a lot lately, despite two of
Speaker 1: their last three matchups being against the forty nine ers.
Speaker 1: But you know, even though you know, the Rams were
Speaker 1: completely blown out by the Ravens, they've been very solid
Speaker 1: defensively overall, particularly since trading for Jalen Ramsey. They're eleventh
Speaker 1: in defensive DVOA and with the Cardinals offensive line struggling,
Speaker 1: you know, generally speaking, I think that Kyler Murray's is
Speaker 1: probably going to be dealing with, you know, some pressure
Speaker 1: and he's able to escape it. But at the very least,
Speaker 1: I think they'll be able to slow down the Cardinals
Speaker 1: enough to get out here with the big leads. So
Speaker 1: at three, I think the worst case for me I'm
Speaker 1: looking at is a push. I feel pretty confident that
Speaker 1: the Rams are going to win the game, So I
Speaker 1: feel like here they're going to win my more than three,
Speaker 1: But at absolute worst, I take him there. So I'll
Speaker 1: take the Rams lang three, even though they're on the
Speaker 1: road against the Cardinals team off a bye, I feel
Speaker 1: pretty good about him.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the real X factor there, as you
Speaker 2: mentioned it, is the bye week. You know, you never
Speaker 2: know how teams respond from that.
Speaker 1: Buye.
Speaker 2: In general, when people ask me how do you handicap
Speaker 2: by weeks in the NFL? I always say I take
Speaker 2: a contrarian view, meaning that if you know a team
Speaker 2: is red hot, sometimes they regress. If a team is
Speaker 2: really struggling, they play well. Textbook example. By the way,
Speaker 2: was the Atlanta Falcons terrible for the start of the season.
Speaker 2: They had that buy a few weeks when they come
Speaker 2: out back to back underdog wins, including the Saints. So
Speaker 2: we'll see if it helps the Cardinals. I think the
Speaker 2: buye came in a really good time for them. Obviously,
Speaker 2: this is the team that was on a four game
Speaker 2: losing streak heading into the bye week. But they're not
Speaker 2: a good team still, and at some point I expect
Speaker 2: the Rams to wake up. I thought there was value
Speaker 2: with them on Monday Night. I had a plan them
Speaker 2: at plus three and a half for my clients. It
Speaker 2: obviously did not work out. I thought that line was
Speaker 2: ridiculously inflated based on how good the Ravens had looked.
Speaker 2: You know, LA's probably maybe what a six point favorite
Speaker 2: when the season begins against Baltimore than they were three
Speaker 2: and a half point dog this week. But with that said,
Speaker 2: they have underachieved. I also liked them the week before
Speaker 2: against Pittsburgh, so I don't disagree with you. It's two
Speaker 2: weeks in a row. I've lost with the Rams. I'm
Speaker 2: probably not the best person to ask, you know, as
Speaker 2: far as you know when to play them. But that
Speaker 2: Super Bowl loser situation seems to work a year after
Speaker 2: year where they always regress. And LA's definitely having a
Speaker 2: down season so far, and it'll be interesting if they
Speaker 2: can't take advantage of areas out of this week. I'd
Speaker 2: be very careful with them going forward.
Speaker 1: Oh absolutely, And again I'm completely with you. I was
Speaker 1: certainly on the Rams early on, and look, the Rams were,
Speaker 1: you know, the sharp side really, you know, against the
Speaker 1: Ravens this past week. But it was just one of
Speaker 1: these things where you know, I think if you have
Speaker 1: any remote pass rush, I think golf is just useless
Speaker 1: essentially at this point. And I really don't expect the
Speaker 1: Cardinals to be able to get pressure on them, and
Speaker 1: because of that, I think that they're going to be
Speaker 1: able to put up points. So, you know, I agree,
Speaker 1: if they lose this game, then you know, forget it.
Speaker 1: You can forget them for the rest of the season,
Speaker 1: but I'm willing to roll with them one more time
Speaker 1: at a point where they're probably most desperate all the year.
Speaker 1: Let's go to your second pick. What do you got here?
Speaker 2: Yeah, we're gonna look at an over under. And since
Speaker 2: we're talking about the Ravens, this is a good transition
Speaker 2: into the forty nine Er Ravens game. You know, and
Speaker 2: I mentioned this earlier with my Packers selection. You know,
Speaker 2: it was a great matchup for San Francisco last week
Speaker 2: because they have the best pass defense in the NFL.
Speaker 2: But the forty nine Ers run defense has been very
Speaker 2: suspect this year. They allow four point seven yards per carry,
Speaker 2: and now they're facing the best rushing attack in the
Speaker 2: NFL and the Baltimore Ravens. Now, I'm not going to
Speaker 2: necessarily jump on the Ravens though as a side pick,
Speaker 2: because as I mentioned, the public is all over them.
Speaker 2: The line just continues to be inflated. I was even
Speaker 2: surprised to see that six this week. In this game,
Speaker 2: San Francisco has been as good as anybody in the NFL.
Speaker 2: So basically, the odds makers are saying the Ravens are
Speaker 2: three points better at least than San Francisco maybe it's
Speaker 2: just two points, because home field could worth be worth
Speaker 2: about four here it is a west coast to east
Speaker 2: coast spot. Both teams played the Sunday and Monday night
Speaker 2: primetime games, but this will be a ten am Pacific
Speaker 2: kickoff for San Francisco, so I'd be careful with them,
Speaker 2: but I don't necessarily want Baltimore even with the inflated price.
Speaker 2: I think the best way to play this game is
Speaker 2: the over under, and the over looks like the way
Speaker 2: to go. I mean, obviously, the Ravens have been an
Speaker 2: offensive juggernaut this season, but the total is just forty
Speaker 2: seven in this game, and that's because San Francisco's defensive
Speaker 2: numbers have been so good. This is really crazy to
Speaker 2: if you look at it. San Francisco averages thirty points
Speaker 2: a game, the Ravens averaged thirty five points a game.
Speaker 2: At sixty five, the totals forty seven. Now, the reason
Speaker 2: isn't because Baltimore's defense is great. They allow eighteen and
Speaker 2: a half a game, but I think they are mediocre defense.
Speaker 2: In fact, they give up five point eight yards per
Speaker 2: play against teams that averages five point six, so theoretically
Speaker 2: they are below average defense on the yards per play basis.
Speaker 2: The reason this total is only forty seven is because
Speaker 2: the forty nine Ers defense gives up less than fifteen
Speaker 2: points a game, and they have been fantastic this year
Speaker 2: four point six yards per play against teams at average
Speaker 2: five point six. But they haven't faced an offense like this,
Speaker 2: you know, the Patriots offense. Our defense had been fantastic
Speaker 2: all season also until a few weeks ago when they
Speaker 2: gave up thirty seven. And I just don't see them
Speaker 2: slowing down Baltimore, especially with the below average run defense.
Speaker 2: I think there's value with over forty seven. You know,
Speaker 2: it seems like a public pick being a Raven's over,
Speaker 2: just like the Packers are public. But once again, I'm
Speaker 2: not afraid to be on the public side here. I
Speaker 2: actually think that total is way too low.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm in agreement with you. I was a little
Speaker 1: surprised on it. Look the Ravens, they're gonna be able
Speaker 1: to score against anyone right now. I get that they're
Speaker 1: probably playing at the height of what they're able to do,
Speaker 1: but I think I read a stat that said they
Speaker 1: have not punted in a drive led by Lamar Jackson
Speaker 1: in three games or something like that. I mean, he
Speaker 1: is just really his speed and you know, just the
Speaker 1: offense that they're running over there, it's really really difficult
Speaker 1: to slow down, even with the defense as good as
Speaker 1: the forty nine Ers been, and of course, you know
Speaker 1: they the strength of the Ravens in what they're trying
Speaker 1: to do is run the ball effectively and to the
Speaker 1: extent there is a spot to attack the forty nine
Speaker 1: ers defense, it is more on the run specifically, since
Speaker 1: you know, kwant Alexander went out and yeah, you know
Speaker 1: the Ravens defense. I mean, I think I like them
Speaker 1: a little bit more, probably than as you've described, just
Speaker 1: because I think a lot of their season long statistics
Speaker 1: were influenced early on when they were dealing with a
Speaker 1: lot more injuries. You know, Brandon Williams really hurt their
Speaker 1: ability to stop the run and everything like that. They
Speaker 1: were banged up in the secondary. I do think that
Speaker 1: they're playing better lately, but I agree, I mean, lo,
Speaker 1: Kyle Shanahan is perhaps the most creative offensive coach in
Speaker 1: the game, so he is going to be able to
Speaker 1: devise certain things. So I'm in good lead agreement with you.
Speaker 1: When I saw it, you know it struck me as well.
Speaker 1: That's what I try to look at when I look
Speaker 1: at the lines, I just take my gut reaction before
Speaker 1: I really dive into it, and my gut reaction was
Speaker 1: certainly it was low. So you know, we do picks
Speaker 1: on bettingpros dot com. You know, I don't know one
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty. You know, quote unquote experts make picks.
Speaker 1: And I've already locked in the over on that one,
Speaker 1: so I'm in total agreement with you. I'm gonna go
Speaker 1: also with an over here, and you know, Steve, I
Speaker 1: think you're gonna disagree with this one, but we'll talk
Speaker 1: about it for a second. And I do want to
Speaker 1: make it clear. When I picked it, it was at forty six.
Speaker 1: It has moved to forty seven. It's been trending up.
Speaker 1: So I locked it in when it was forty six,
Speaker 1: and I feel better about that. I'll still take it
Speaker 1: at forty seven because what the heck. And I will
Speaker 1: go on a Thanksgiving game, even though some people, when
Speaker 1: you're listening to this, it may be late. But you know,
Speaker 1: we never get to do Thursday games on the show
Speaker 1: because we usually record on Thursday. So I'm gonna do it.
Speaker 1: And I'm going to take the Bills and the Cowboys
Speaker 1: over forty seven. Again, as often happens, it was forty
Speaker 1: six when I sort of looked at it and decided
Speaker 1: to make the pick. But I'll stick with it at
Speaker 1: forty seven. The Cowboys ranked sixth in the NFL in
Speaker 1: scoring at nearly twenty seven points per game. They're even
Speaker 1: better at home, averaging more than thirty points per game.
Speaker 1: They're second in offensive DVOA. That's obviously including this past
Speaker 1: weekend where they did absolutely nothing against the Patriots. It's
Speaker 1: kind of like the Rams. I expect this to be
Speaker 1: a little bit of a bounce back effort for Dallas,
Speaker 1: and particularly offensively. And the Bills have a great defense,
Speaker 1: the ranked third in the NFL, but certainly some of
Speaker 1: that has been their schedule, which has been one of,
Speaker 1: if not the single easiest schedule in the NFL. And
Speaker 1: you've seen you know, they've got a great defense, but
Speaker 1: they're much better pass defense. They're a bit vulnerable against
Speaker 1: the run. And even though Ezekiel Elliott has not torn
Speaker 1: it up of late, he's likely going to get going
Speaker 1: in this game. And I think they're going to be
Speaker 1: able to move the ball through the air too, give
Speaker 1: him the play action. They've given up the fewest sacks
Speaker 1: in the NFL, even with Amari Cooper matched up against
Speaker 1: Tradavius Right. Cooper is coming off a game where he
Speaker 1: was shut out. You know he's going to get at
Speaker 1: least a little bit more there. And Michael Gallup is
Speaker 1: playing well as well. And they're even getting Rendal Cobb involved.
Speaker 1: So the Cowboys know this game they obviously play on
Speaker 1: Thanksgiving every year. The quick turnaround, I think they'll be
Speaker 1: ready to go, But I also expect Buffalo to be
Speaker 1: able to score two. They're featuring Devin Singletary a bit more.
Speaker 1: They just gashed a very strong Denver run defense. On
Speaker 1: the ground, Josh Allen is really able to extend plays.
Speaker 1: But in particular, you know, even though you've got, you know,
Speaker 1: two teams that are going to run the ball a lot.
Speaker 1: So that's usually good for the under because it takes
Speaker 1: up you know, longer drives, takes up clock. But the
Speaker 1: Cowboys generally are pretty they play fast, and really, when
Speaker 1: I was looking at the Bills last week, they really
Speaker 1: played up tempo. They went no huddle a ton. I
Speaker 1: mean it was something like, you know, forty percent of
Speaker 1: the time close to that. They ran seventy three plays
Speaker 1: last week. I think that's what they're going to try
Speaker 1: to come out and do. Their offense looked better against
Speaker 1: a tough defense, so I expect them to also try
Speaker 1: to play fast, which again to me, strikes me as
Speaker 1: something that's going to lean towards the over. So you know,
Speaker 1: in the end, the total strending up here, as I
Speaker 1: mentioned it, I looked at it. It was forty five and
Speaker 1: a half at one point. I got it when it
Speaker 1: was forty six. It's now at forty seven on our
Speaker 1: Consentuve ods, so I could see the under I think
Speaker 1: the under looked quote unquote like the sharp play given
Speaker 1: all the reasons I discussed, But I'm going to go
Speaker 1: over here with forty seven for the Bills and the Cowboys. Yeah.
Speaker 2: Actually, I think the sharp money agrees with you. This
Speaker 2: was as low as forty five even in some spots
Speaker 2: when it opened, and it is up to forty six
Speaker 2: and forty seven as you mentioned the last couple of days.
Speaker 2: The public isn't playing this yet. I think the professionals,
Speaker 2: you know, probably expect these overs to be bumped up
Speaker 2: because obviously the public likes overs and on Thursday, these
Speaker 2: are very public bet games of three Thanksgiving games, so
Speaker 2: they maybe are trying to get in early. There might
Speaker 2: be a little bit of a buy back, you know,
Speaker 2: if it hits forty seven and a half, they might
Speaker 2: come back on the under, try to middle it, and
Speaker 2: this line might drop back down by kickoff to forty
Speaker 2: seven to forty six and a half. But I think
Speaker 2: you have to be careful overreacting to Buffalo's defensive numbers.
Speaker 2: They might allow just sixteen points a game, but they
Speaker 2: haven't faced many offenses like Dallas. This is a good
Speaker 2: cowboy offense. They can both run and throw the ball.
Speaker 2: They average eight and a half yards of pass twenty
Speaker 2: seven points a game. They're averaging over thirty points per
Speaker 2: game at home this season, so I think it could
Speaker 2: be a high scoring game. Actually it wouldn't shock me.
Speaker 2: And yeah, both teams run the ball, but as you said,
Speaker 2: they do it officially, they do a kind of uptempo.
Speaker 2: I love the uptempo analogy. It's something I use a
Speaker 2: tremendous amount in college and pro basketball and handicapping totals.
Speaker 2: We don't talk about it as much in football, but
Speaker 2: in the modern you no spread offenses. It is a
Speaker 2: legitimate handicapping factor. And once again, this is kind of
Speaker 2: like that San Francisco Baltimore total. You know that I
Speaker 2: use the over. You've got one really good defensive team
Speaker 2: like San Francisco Buffalo of a really good offensive team
Speaker 2: Alish or Baltimore, and because of that, the odds makers
Speaker 2: kind of have to put the total in the middle there.
Speaker 2: One of those teams is going to dictate their preferred
Speaker 2: style of play. I think it'll be Baltimore at home,
Speaker 2: and you know you're betting it'll probably be Dallas at home.
Speaker 2: And in general, the home team does dictate the way
Speaker 2: they want the game to go.
Speaker 1: Yeah, my one worry on it would be that the
Speaker 1: Cowboys jump out to a real big lead. And then,
Speaker 1: you know, I don't think the Bills are capable of
Speaker 1: putting up points, which I look, it's a it's a
Speaker 1: certainly something that's that's a factor. But in the end,
Speaker 1: I really do expect as much as I don't, you know,
Speaker 1: have quite as much faith in the Bills defense. I
Speaker 1: like their offense, and I really do considering they're bringing
Speaker 1: in Devin Singletary. I you know, John Brown's always been
Speaker 1: one of my favorite players. It's great to watch him
Speaker 1: succeed right now. And Josh Allen is able to when
Speaker 1: you get pressure on him because of his legs, is
Speaker 1: able to extend drive. So I think they're going to
Speaker 1: play fast. I think there's gonna be a lot of points,
Speaker 1: so I'll take the over. Let's move on to your
Speaker 1: third pick here. What do you got?
Speaker 2: You're gonna talk about it more of an ugly team
Speaker 2: here for the third pick, go back to a side
Speaker 2: selection and this is one of the Lake kickoffs at
Speaker 2: four to twenty five Eastern on Sunday afternoon, going to
Speaker 2: look at the Oakland Raiders. And this is another game
Speaker 2: in which the lines moved a bit from what the
Speaker 2: look ahead number was. I saw it as low as
Speaker 2: eight and a half in some spots, but now as
Speaker 2: of Wednesday afternoon, we're looking at a solid plus ten
Speaker 2: across the board. Ten another very key number about four
Speaker 2: to five percent of the time, just like seven, it's
Speaker 2: going to land on ten. So I do think at
Speaker 2: ten or more here we're starting to get some value
Speaker 2: with the Oakland Raiders. This is a rematch from earlier
Speaker 2: this season. I always like to take good sized big
Speaker 2: divisional dogs in rematches, especially if they've lost. They're coming
Speaker 2: off a terrible show in last week against the Jets.
Speaker 2: By the way, I had a best bet on the
Speaker 2: New York Jets as the home dog against the Raiders
Speaker 2: from my clients, so that game did not surprise me.
Speaker 2: Now the thirty four to three win did surprise me.
Speaker 2: That was a pleasant surprise. But I still think because
Speaker 2: of that, this line's been inflated. Now. Also, Kansas City
Speaker 2: starting to get a little healthier, but they've alternated wins
Speaker 2: or losses going all the way back to early October.
Speaker 2: And this is still a team that's just three and
Speaker 2: four straight up their last seven games, both against the
Speaker 2: spread and outright, so they have not been crushing it
Speaker 2: like they did last year. I just think this is
Speaker 2: an inflated line here. You look at the Oakland They're
Speaker 2: capable of moving the ball. You know, they put up
Speaker 2: twenty four points straight against Chicago Green Bay in Houston,
Speaker 2: then they put up thirty one and twenty six against
Speaker 2: Detroit and the Chargers, and then the last two weeks
Speaker 2: only seventeen and three all of a sudden. I think
Speaker 2: this is a little bit of an overreaction by the
Speaker 2: Betty market, and I think Oakland is more likely to
Speaker 2: return to that twenty twenty five point average this week
Speaker 2: against the mediocre Kansas City defense.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm not sure that I would pick it, but
Speaker 1: I don't disagree with the side that you're on. Really,
Speaker 1: what I look at here and I agreed with the
Speaker 1: Jets against the Raiders. Look, the Raiders need to be
Speaker 1: able to run the ball with Jacobs in order to
Speaker 1: really establish their identity and put up points. They have
Speaker 1: lost Hunter ren for of course, but look, we've seen
Speaker 1: it in the past before mahomes injury. You know, when
Speaker 1: you were able to slow down the Chiefs offense. How
Speaker 1: did they do it? You know that game against the Colts.
Speaker 1: I think maybe the game against Texans. They ran the ball,
Speaker 1: they controlled the game, They kept Mahomes off the field.
Speaker 1: And Mahomes is not, you know, looking quite as good
Speaker 1: as he did before the injury for obvious reasons. But
Speaker 1: you know, this game unlike the Jets game, because the
Speaker 1: Jets were able to stop the run. They stopped really
Speaker 1: what the Raiders did. I feel like in this game,
Speaker 1: the Chiefs cannot stop the run, and that is where
Speaker 1: the Raiders are going to be able to not only
Speaker 1: move the ball, but keep Mahomes off the field as
Speaker 1: much as possible and be able to keep the game close.
Speaker 1: So look, betting against Patrick Mahomes is something that you know,
Speaker 1: I've struggled to do, you know, at least in his prime,
Speaker 1: because it was too scary frankly when I was involved
Speaker 1: in it. But overall, so I don't think I'm going
Speaker 1: to get in on it. But I do agree that
Speaker 1: if I were to pick a side, it would be
Speaker 1: the Raiders getting ten for basically all the reasons you described,
Speaker 1: So I do like the pick.
Speaker 2: Well, one thing I'll point out to you know, you
Speaker 2: mentioned the importance of the Raiders running the ball, and
Speaker 2: I ever got to mention Kansas City's run defense. Given
Speaker 2: a five point one yards per carry this year, it's
Speaker 2: one of the weaker yards per carey defenses in the NFL.
Speaker 2: So I do think Oakland will have some success on
Speaker 2: the ground.
Speaker 1: Yeah, one hundred percent. And really, when you're able to
Speaker 1: do that, that's kind of how you keep the game close.
Speaker 1: And again, ten is a huge number. You know, anytime
Speaker 1: you get to double digits, you got to look closely
Speaker 1: at the team getting the points and it's a key number,
Speaker 1: as you mentioned, so certainly, at the very least the
Speaker 1: backdoor covers is always in play. I'll go to my
Speaker 1: final pick and it's going to go back to an
Speaker 1: over under, and that's the Jets and the Bengals over
Speaker 1: forty one and a half. I think you're gonna probably
Speaker 1: see this line maybe crew up to forty two forty
Speaker 1: two and a half with Andy Dalton back in, and
Speaker 1: I think there's a good reason for it. Look, the
Speaker 1: Jets offense right now is clicking. It's been soft matchups,
Speaker 1: but they've scored exactly thirty four points in each of
Speaker 1: their last three games. That's against the Giants, Redskins, and Raiders,
Speaker 1: soft matchups. But they've got another one here against the Bengals.
Speaker 1: In addition the simple fact that Sam Darnold is growing
Speaker 1: as a quarterback, There's just some talented playmakers and it's
Speaker 1: really that none of those teams get pressure consistently on
Speaker 1: the quarterback. That's the key for Donald, who stands behind
Speaker 1: a terrible offensive line and so long as he isn't
Speaker 1: consistently dealing with defenders in the space, he can make
Speaker 1: plays and put up points. And the Bengals have sixteen
Speaker 1: sacks on the season. That's second worst in the NFL.
Speaker 1: They're head of only the Dolphins. They're third worst in
Speaker 1: defensive DVOA. There's absolutely no reason why the Jets should
Speaker 1: struggle to put up points here. And look, the Jets
Speaker 1: are solid upfront. Defensive they have Jamal Adams, one of
Speaker 1: the best safeties in the game. Since they've switched at cornerback,
Speaker 1: they've been playing better. Brian Poole has had actually a
Speaker 1: nice season out of the slot and their fifth in
Speaker 1: defensive DVOA. But the Bengals are at least borderline competent offensively.
Speaker 1: So long as Andy Dalton is under center, he knows
Speaker 1: how to utilize Tyler Boyd. Joe Mixon has been getting
Speaker 1: plenty of work lately, which he really wasn't getting early.
Speaker 1: On forty Glenn came back, which helps their offensive line.
Speaker 1: I haven't seen anything on the practice reports with aj Green,
Speaker 1: but you know, you got to get this feeling like Green.
Speaker 1: I'm not coming back with Ryan Finley, but all right,
Speaker 1: you throw Dalton back there, maybe he'll try to play.
Speaker 1: Even if he doesn't, though, I think that the Bengals
Speaker 1: are going to be able to put up at least
Speaker 1: some points right now, I don't think the Jets defense
Speaker 1: is quite as good as it has looked lately. Not
Speaker 1: a crazy amount of points, but certainly some points. And
Speaker 1: with the Jets being able to put up points, I
Speaker 1: feel comfortable here that they're going to shoot over forty
Speaker 1: one a half, which again is a fairly low over under.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's very low. I was going to say it's
Speaker 2: a very low over under for the modern NFL on
Speaker 2: forty one, by the way, a very key number with totals,
Speaker 2: and I do see several spots out there that still
Speaker 2: have forty one. So I think you can legitimately say
Speaker 2: you could play over forty one in this game about
Speaker 2: three to four percent of the time it's going to
Speaker 2: land on forty one points. You know, twenty four to seventeen,
Speaker 2: thirty one, ten, twenty one, twenty, There's a lot of
Speaker 2: combinations that get you there. So definitely shop around get
Speaker 2: that over forty one in this one. If you're looking
Speaker 2: at the over I do think forty one and a
Speaker 2: half forty two by Sundays be what the number is,
Speaker 2: So I'd play it sooner than later. And yeah, I
Speaker 2: kind of wait for the Bengals to have a breakout game.
Speaker 2: You know, they've been so terrible this year. Everyone thought
Speaker 2: the Dolphins were the worst team in the modern NFL history,
Speaker 2: and they've already won two games. You know, the Redskins
Speaker 2: looked like they were the worst team. They won their
Speaker 2: second game last week. The Jets were actually in the
Speaker 2: playoff list now if you look at teams in the hunt,
Speaker 2: the Jets are actually listed now despite being just four
Speaker 2: and seven. But they are a better team healthy, and
Speaker 2: that's one of the reasons I liked the Jets last week.
Speaker 2: Is the best bet for my clients against Oakland was
Speaker 2: I do feel like they're flying a bit under the
Speaker 2: radar now that Darnold is healthy and able to play
Speaker 2: his level. Thirty four points three straight games. You mentioned
Speaker 2: the three week opponents they've played. This is the weakest yet,
Speaker 2: so I see no reason why it wouldn't continue. And
Speaker 2: I think the key here is of Cincinnati can get
Speaker 2: the points. We know they allow points. They give up
Speaker 2: thirty two a game at home. The problem is they
Speaker 2: only average sixteen at home, only fourteen and a half overall.
Speaker 2: But I'm not stilling this Jets defense. They give up
Speaker 2: over twenty six and a half away. Yeah, it's a
Speaker 2: low total forty one. He almost automatically have to look
Speaker 2: at the over and I think he brought up some
Speaker 2: very good reasons to do so.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I'm a Jets fan. Full disclosure, I'm from Queens,
Speaker 1: so I grew up, unfortunately rooting for them and still do.
Speaker 1: And yeah, I agree. Look, they've been playing very well,
Speaker 1: but I'm still not trusting the defense at this point.
Speaker 1: And again, look, the Bengals are terrible. They are a
Speaker 1: terrible football team. They've got probably two games left that
Speaker 1: they can win. They don't want to go oh in sixteen.
Speaker 1: They do have a game against Miami, so you know,
Speaker 1: I'll put that out there. They can definitely win that game.
Speaker 1: But they've got to be going for it at this
Speaker 1: point because otherwise there's really no reason to turn back
Speaker 1: to Andy Dalton because he's not the quarterback in the future.
Speaker 1: I'm sure they're going to be drafting a quarterback this year.
Speaker 1: So I think they want this win. I think they're
Speaker 1: going to do whatever they can to get it, which
Speaker 1: I think means putting up points. All right, let's recap here, Steve.
Speaker 1: You've got the hacker's lank six and a half to
Speaker 1: the Giants, the forty nine Ers and Ravens over forty seven,
Speaker 1: and the Raiders getting ten from the Chiefs. I'll take
Speaker 1: the Rams lank three to the Cardinals, the Bills and
Speaker 1: Cowboys over forty seven now, and the Jets and the
Speaker 1: Bengals over forty one and a half. I believe, although, yeah,
Speaker 1: forty one and a half. I'm sorry. All right. Before
Speaker 1: we move on, let's talk about bet MGM and the
Speaker 1: bet mgm Sports app because you're about to win some
Speaker 1: free money. Go onto your app store, search for BETMGM
Speaker 1: Sports and download the app onto your phone. Sign up
Speaker 1: for an account. Use our promo code Harris. That's my
Speaker 1: last name, Harris. You'll basically have your choice of free
Speaker 1: money one of three different ways with your first bet.
Speaker 1: If you want to do it on Thanksgiving, that's great place.
Speaker 1: A one dollar money line bet on any Thanksgiving game
Speaker 1: anyone and if any team not the team in your game,
Speaker 1: any team on Thanksgiving scores a touchdown, you win two
Speaker 1: hundred dollars in free bets. You want to wait until
Speaker 1: the Sunday games, it's great place. A one dollar money
Speaker 1: line bet on any Sunday game and win two hundred
Speaker 1: and fifty in free bets any team on Sunday scores
Speaker 1: a touchdown. Are you a procrastinator you want to wait
Speaker 1: until Monday? I don't condone that, but bet MGM does
Speaker 1: not care. Place your first bet of one dollar on
Speaker 1: the money line on Monday and win one hundred dollars
Speaker 1: in free bets if Russell Wilson completes even a single
Speaker 1: pass against the Vikings. There is no plausible scenario where
Speaker 1: any of these bets lose none. It is pure folly
Speaker 1: and if you sign up for account at betmgm, you
Speaker 1: are going to see that they offer crazy boosted bets
Speaker 1: like this all the time. They've got a ton of
Speaker 1: amazing other benefits as well, like being able to track
Speaker 1: your bet in real time, or taking an early cash
Speaker 1: out to lock in winnings or cut losses. So again,
Speaker 1: just download the bet mgm Sports apps, sign up for
Speaker 1: an account, use our promo code Harris to get some
Speaker 1: essentially free money either on Thanksgiving or this weekend. These
Speaker 1: winnings are paid in free bets and you must be
Speaker 1: twenty one years or older. And although you can sign
Speaker 1: up an easily deposit money anywhere, you must be in
Speaker 1: the state of New Jersey to place a sports bet,
Speaker 1: and certain restrictions apply at MGM dot com for the
Speaker 1: full list of terms and conditions. And if you've got
Speaker 1: a gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. All right, Steve,
Speaker 1: let's move on to it's a trap where we list
Speaker 1: the line we are avoiding this weekend. What do you have?
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know we talked about this game. I used
Speaker 2: the over, but I'm going to use the side. I
Speaker 2: kind of referenced this earlier that I know it was
Speaker 2: a tough one, and that's the Ravens forty nine Ers side.
Speaker 2: Here I can make an argument for both teams. I
Speaker 2: can also tell you why he probably want to stay
Speaker 2: away from both teams. First of all, as I've referenced earlier,
Speaker 2: I was surprised to see the line six. I mean,
Speaker 2: San Francisco has been as good as anybody in the NFL.
Speaker 2: They just blew out a good Packers team on Sunday
Speaker 2: night primetime football. Normally you lose line value because of that.
Speaker 2: But then the Ravens did them one better and they
Speaker 2: blew out the Rams on Monday night, which is more recent,
Speaker 2: and then everybody's memory, the betting public saw what they
Speaker 2: did to the Patriots a few weeks ago. So now
Speaker 2: you've got the Ravens at minus sixth. It's like Ohio
Speaker 2: State and college football. You're not going to get any
Speaker 2: value with Baltimore going forward until they lose at some point.
Speaker 2: By the way, Ohio State's failed to cover each of
Speaker 2: the last two weeks despite winning. Still who that doesn't
Speaker 2: mean you jumped in on the forty nine Ers either.
Speaker 2: This is a team that's coming off that huge win.
Speaker 2: Now I'll have to travel cross country and have the
Speaker 2: disadvantage of playing a one o'clock Eastern, which is a
Speaker 2: ten am Pacific kickoff on their body clocks. And also,
Speaker 2: as I referenced, one of the reasons I like the
Speaker 2: over and I'm staying away from the side is because
Speaker 2: the forty nine Ers defense has been great this year,
Speaker 2: but that's against the past. They're actually a below average
Speaker 2: rush defense statistically four point seven yards per rush allowed,
Speaker 2: and now they're facing a mobile quarterback like they have
Speaker 2: not seen all season. I'd be very careful with this side.
Speaker 2: I think it's a bad matchup for San Francisco, but
Speaker 2: I think there's no value right now with Baltimore in
Speaker 2: the near future.
Speaker 1: So usually what we do, if you've listened to the show,
Speaker 1: is I have our guests send me their picks in advance,
Speaker 1: so I could just make sure I don't pick the
Speaker 1: same game. And you know, it's Thanksgivings coming up. Steve
Speaker 1: and I weren't able to connect that closely about this,
Speaker 1: so that was going to be my line to avoid this. Yeah, no, great,
Speaker 1: bos think a lot. You want to do it, all right,
Speaker 1: I'll do it. I'll throw it out very quickly for
Speaker 1: you too. But I could not agree with you more.
Speaker 1: This is just not a line I'm going anywhere near.
Speaker 1: I'm shocked it's six, by the way. I mean, as
Speaker 1: much as I six just strikes me as crazy inflated.
Speaker 1: But I can't bring myself to bet against Lamar Jackson
Speaker 1: at this point. But it's certainly something that's crazy. But
Speaker 1: I like that you took it. It was gonna be
Speaker 1: mine too. I think I'll pivot a little bit and
Speaker 1: the game that I'm avoiding because again I've looked at
Speaker 1: this game and I you know, originally I wanted to
Speaker 1: take it, but I couldn't get there. And that's the
Speaker 1: Patriots laying three to the Texans in Houston. Look this game,
Speaker 1: when you look at the Patriots, they're just their defense
Speaker 1: is great, but their offense it's really not working right now.
Speaker 1: I understand that the game against Dallas was in the
Speaker 1: terrible weather, but it's really not going anywhere. Brady is
Speaker 1: not playing particularly well. They struggle to run the ball,
Speaker 1: as I have all season long, since James Devlin went out.
Speaker 1: They're really just not able to put up a ton
Speaker 1: of points. I don't you know, Brady was on the
Speaker 1: injury report with an elbow injury. That's you know, he
Speaker 1: used to always be on the injury report, but I
Speaker 1: hadn't heard of that before. So he may be a
Speaker 1: little banged up. He's been getting hit quite a bit,
Speaker 1: you know. And the Texans right now, you know, look
Speaker 1: they're off the many bye, Will Fuller is healthy. You know,
Speaker 1: they're playing overall. They came off the big win pretty well.
Speaker 1: If there's one thing that the Patriots defense kind of
Speaker 1: struggles with a little bit, it's mobile quarterbacks. You saw
Speaker 1: against Lamar Jackson. Although that's not really something that you
Speaker 1: can hold against any defense, frankly, but because they play
Speaker 1: so much, man, you know, their cornerbacks have their backs
Speaker 1: turned to it so the mobile quarterbacks like Watson are
Speaker 1: able to get out. But in the end, the coaching
Speaker 1: difference in the two teams. I mean, Bill O'Brien is
Speaker 1: just not somebody that I can feel comfortable backing, particularly
Speaker 1: against Bill Belichick. So at this game on Sunday Night Football,
Speaker 1: the crowd's going to be crazy. It's just something where
Speaker 1: I kind of feel like, if I'm forced to pick
Speaker 1: a side, I see the value in the Texans personally,
Speaker 1: but it's not something where I'm going to be willing
Speaker 1: to go ahead and bet against Bill Belichick. So I'm
Speaker 1: avoiding the Patriots laying three to the Texans. I wanted
Speaker 1: your thoughts on that line.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's going to be critical where this line settles
Speaker 2: because as of Wednesday right now, there's a lot of
Speaker 2: threes minus one twin but I see several spots also
Speaker 2: that have minus three and a half, even on the Patriots.
Speaker 2: And as we talked about earlier in the show, you know,
Speaker 2: NFL favorites went about nine to ten percent of the
Speaker 2: time by exactly three points, so big difference. You know,
Speaker 2: if you like, if you like New England, you want
Speaker 2: to play three minus one twenty. If you like Houston,
Speaker 2: you play plus three and a half even it is
Speaker 2: worth the twenty cent gap. In fact, it's worth about
Speaker 2: twenty five to thirty cents. Historically, it's the one time
Speaker 2: it's worth paying a little extra. And if you've noticed,
Speaker 2: most sports books know this, and they make you charge.
Speaker 2: They charge you at least like thirty cents because buying
Speaker 2: points in general is a sucker play you don't normally
Speaker 2: want to do. They don't want to move the line
Speaker 2: a half a point in lay minus one twenty instead
Speaker 2: of minus one ten. But in this situation, you are
Speaker 2: better off laying a little extra if it's only a
Speaker 2: twenty cent gap. So yeah, we'll see where this line settles.
Speaker 2: And I think that reason alone, you know, Dan has
Speaker 2: reason to stay away from this game at least right
Speaker 2: now until Sunday night.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's a great point. And again, look,
Speaker 1: I mentioned it most times we record. But again we're
Speaker 1: using the consensus odds, okay, and that's probably I believe,
Speaker 1: eight sports books that we've got going on. But if
Speaker 1: you look at it, the consensus odds are minus three
Speaker 1: and laying one o five right here. But if you
Speaker 1: look at the different sports books, there's a handful of
Speaker 1: three and a half. So it really depends on where
Speaker 1: you're able to get in. But yeah, it's just not
Speaker 1: ane I you'll come to with. If it's three and
Speaker 1: a half, I'll bite the bullet and take the Texans.
Speaker 1: But at three it's not something that I want to go. Okay,
Speaker 1: you and I are both avoiding the Ravens lank six
Speaker 1: to the forty nine ers, and I'm going to avoid
Speaker 1: the Patriots laying three to the Texans. So before we
Speaker 1: get to our final segment, I want to mind everyone
Speaker 1: about our giveaway. It's assigned Odell Beckham Junior Cleveland Brown's helmet.
Speaker 1: The contest is running through November thirty, so you have
Speaker 1: a couple more days to get in. You can go
Speaker 1: to betting pros dot com slash contest for more details,
Speaker 1: but to enter, just leave a review for the show
Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher and send a screenshot of
Speaker 1: that review to contest at bettingpros dot com. Now, the
Speaker 1: Beckham helmet and all of our signed helmets come from
Speaker 1: Pristine Auction, where they offer a ton of great memorabilia
Speaker 1: with thousands of auctions every day, and when you go there,
Speaker 1: use our promo code betting pros and win a free
Speaker 1: five dollars voucher instantly, So just go to Pristine Auction
Speaker 1: dot com. That's p r I s t I n
Speaker 1: auction dot com. All right, Steve. We also did not
Speaker 1: get a chance to talk about our top props, so legitimately,
Speaker 1: if you take mine, I'm just gonna jump on it
Speaker 1: with you. So go ahead, and and what do you
Speaker 1: got here?
Speaker 2: Yeah, well there's a couple I'm looking at, and it's
Speaker 2: by the way, you know, Wednesday. Of course, it's very
Speaker 2: hard to find the numbers for the Sunday games. All
Speaker 2: the Thursday props are out now, but really haven't seen
Speaker 2: any of the major books with the numbers up for Sunday.
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna be general and you can kind of
Speaker 2: throw in the exact number when you see it as
Speaker 2: a consensus. The one I'm gonna stay away from, by
Speaker 2: the way, is, you know, obviously, uh Lamar Jackson rushing
Speaker 2: yards over is very tempting for me because San Francisco's
Speaker 2: run defense has been below average, as I've referenced several times,
Speaker 2: and also the fact they haven't seen a quarterback like that.
Speaker 2: But I'm staying away from Baltimore in general, because they're
Speaker 2: so public right now, I'd like to normally look for
Speaker 2: unders with props because if a player gets injured, I'm
Speaker 2: not wishing an injury, but if a player gets injured,
Speaker 2: you know, obviously that helps the under and that's something
Speaker 2: that just could be an additional bonus for you. Plus
Speaker 2: the public normally plays the over. With that said, I'm
Speaker 2: going to use an over, and I like Aaron Rodgers
Speaker 2: total passing yards over the total. It goes hand in
Speaker 2: hand with the side selection I used at the top
Speaker 2: of the show. I think Green Bay is flying a
Speaker 2: little bit under the radar right now after that terrible
Speaker 2: performance on Sunday night offensively when they only put up
Speaker 2: eight points and overall as a team they only threw
Speaker 2: the ball for eighty one passing yards. But as I've
Speaker 2: said several times, San Francisco's pass defense has been the
Speaker 2: best in the NFL this year, it was a bad
Speaker 2: matchup for the Packers. They are now taken on which
Speaker 2: maybe is the worst pass defense at least in the NFC,
Speaker 2: maybe the whole NFL. Giants give up sixty eight percent completions,
Speaker 2: they give up eight point one yards per pass and
Speaker 2: just look at the yardage they've given up recently. And
Speaker 2: what's incredible about this, they've lost seven straight games. You know,
Speaker 2: normally teams run the ball when they have the lead,
Speaker 2: and the Giants you think wouldn't be thrown on as
Speaker 2: much two hundred and seventy two eighteen, two fifty seven,
Speaker 2: three sixteen. The last four weeks they did hold Arizona
Speaker 2: at eighty nine, still lost the game, but the two
Speaker 2: weeks before that New England and Minnesota three thirteen and
Speaker 2: two seventy nine allowed. And now they're taking on as
Speaker 2: good of any quarterback in the league and Aaron Rodgers.
Speaker 2: So I'd like the Aaron Rodgers props over specifically, say
Speaker 2: over to total passing yards.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's gonna be a win. Whatever I mean this
Speaker 1: is I look, I feel about this game the exact
Speaker 1: same way you do, which is I think the Packers
Speaker 1: are just going to come out and get you know,
Speaker 1: just firing on all cylinders in this game. I think
Speaker 1: they were really embarrassed last game. Rogers in particular. I
Speaker 1: think there's going to be a lot of stuff going on.
Speaker 1: You did bring up a good point with the props,
Speaker 1: which because look, if you've been listening to it. Almost
Speaker 1: always I'm taking it over and it's always that kind
Speaker 1: of a garden variety line. That is because when we record,
Speaker 1: you know, prop bets generally don't drop till closer to
Speaker 1: game time. And it's funny because the vast majority of
Speaker 1: the props I'm actually able to play once they come
Speaker 1: out on Saturday or even Sunday morning are unders because
Speaker 1: that's generally when I project players, which you know, I
Speaker 1: also do fantasy, so I'm projecting players I'm able to
Speaker 1: really go there. So with these, You're right, it's a
Speaker 1: little more difficult because you've always got to go over.
Speaker 1: And again, we I use points bet because that's really
Speaker 1: the one of the few that has it out there.
Speaker 1: So for me, I'm going to take DJ Shark over
Speaker 1: one hundred yards receiving against the Bucks. That's a plus
Speaker 1: one sixty right now. Chark and pretty much all the
Speaker 1: Jaguars receivers had a terrible day against the Titans, but
Speaker 1: he'd seen at least nine targets in each of his
Speaker 1: three previous games. I expect him to reach that number
Speaker 1: again in a game where the Jaguars are certainly going
Speaker 1: to need points. I mean that Bucks hit the over
Speaker 1: on pretty much every one of their games. The Bucks
Speaker 1: have an incredibly strong run defense, as most betters now
Speaker 1: at this point, but an abysmal pass defense. Dede. Westbrook,
Speaker 1: Chris Conley, They're both going to factor in, But in
Speaker 1: the end, I think realistically it's gonna be Chark. He's
Speaker 1: gonna have by far dominate the targets. I think he's
Speaker 1: gonna have a ton of receiving yards. So at plus
Speaker 1: one sixty, I think the odds are good enough for me.
Speaker 1: All right, that is gonna do it for today's show.
Speaker 1: Thanks for joining me, Steve. Remind everyone where they can
Speaker 1: find more of you and your work.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the website prosportsinfo dot com, and then on Twitter,
Speaker 2: as you mentioned earlier, Steve Merril, and it's two RS,
Speaker 2: one L, just one L. It's unusual, but it allowed
Speaker 2: me to get my Twitter handro many years after Twitter
Speaker 2: had started, so I wasn't complaining at Steve Merril, M
Speaker 2: E R R I L on Twitter, website again, prosportsinfo
Speaker 2: dot com, and anybody that hears the podcast and emails
Speaker 2: me directly, I'll be glad to send him one of
Speaker 2: my personal best bets for this weekend. Steve at Pro
Speaker 2: sports Info dot com just mentioned the show for a
Speaker 2: free best bet with analysis. Steve at prosportsinfo dot com.
Speaker 1: Well, that's great, and you know, I have a lot
Speaker 1: of envy right now because you know, Dan Harris, I
Speaker 1: came in a little late there and I have not
Speaker 1: been able to get my name. I'm going to find
Speaker 1: the real Dan Harris though, and I'm gonna certainly steal
Speaker 1: whatever he's got going on. But thanks again for joining us.
Speaker 1: I want to remind everyone about BETMGM, where you can
Speaker 1: download their betmgm Sports app and sign up using our
Speaker 1: promo code Harris and basically win free money on any
Speaker 1: number of bets either on Thanksgiving, on Sunday or even
Speaker 1: on Monday. And don't forget to leave a review for
Speaker 1: the podcast on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher and send a
Speaker 1: screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com
Speaker 1: to be entered into our Odell Beckham Junior signed helmet giveaway.
Speaker 1: Good luck with your wagers this weekend and on Thanksgiving everyone,
Speaker 1: We'll be back breaking down the early lines for week
Speaker 1: fourteen on Monday,