WEBVTT - Best NFL Week 13 Bets + Favorite Props (Ep. 31) 0:00:06.760 --> 0:00:09.920 Hey there everyone, Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast, 0:00:10.000 --> 0:00:12.840 brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan 0:00:12.880 --> 0:00:15.040 Harris and you can find me on Twitter at Dan 0:00:15.120 --> 0:00:18.479 Harris Ady. We are recording our usual Thursday episode on 0:00:18.520 --> 0:00:21.520 Wednesday this week in lin of Thanksgiving. Good news is 0:00:21.520 --> 0:00:23.880 that the Thursday games are on the table, so maybe 0:00:23.880 --> 0:00:25.680 you'll even be able to get some betting action in 0:00:26.000 --> 0:00:28.920 with your turkey and pumpkin pie. As always, we're going 0:00:28.960 --> 0:00:30.720 to be breaking down some of our favorite and our 0:00:30.800 --> 0:00:33.640 least favorite bets for the week thirteen NFL slate. And 0:00:33.680 --> 0:00:35.800 with me to talk about it all is Steve Merrill, 0:00:36.080 --> 0:00:39.960 a professional handicapper and owner of Pro sportsinfo dot com. 0:00:40.000 --> 0:00:42.040 You can find him on Twitter at his name at 0:00:42.120 --> 0:00:45.560 Steve Merrill. That's me E R R I L Steve. 0:00:45.560 --> 0:00:46.640 How's it going, Hey? 0:00:46.680 --> 0:00:46.880 Dan? 0:00:46.920 --> 0:00:48.640 Doing well? What's your Thanksgiving look like? 0:00:48.720 --> 0:00:48.960 Usually? 0:00:49.000 --> 0:00:50.440 I mean, are you just parked them from the TV 0:00:50.600 --> 0:00:53.120 watching the games all day? You got a big family thing? 0:00:53.159 --> 0:00:53.720 What's going on? 0:00:53.960 --> 0:00:56.240 You know? This is my twenty fourth year as a 0:00:56.280 --> 0:00:59.440 full time professional handicapper. I started Pro SPORTSMFO dot com 0:00:59.520 --> 0:01:02.600 back in ninetheen ninety six, so twenty four football seasons 0:01:02.600 --> 0:01:07.800 now over half my life as a professional. So unfortunately 0:01:07.840 --> 0:01:10.080 this time of year, the holidays is the busiest time 0:01:10.120 --> 0:01:11.840 of year for me. You know, my off season is 0:01:11.920 --> 0:01:13.720 July when there's a little bit of baseball going on, 0:01:14.400 --> 0:01:17.119 and yeah, this time of year with the holidays, it's busy, 0:01:17.120 --> 0:01:19.399 but it's fun also because you get the family element. 0:01:19.480 --> 0:01:22.160 You also get the football element. And know it's the 0:01:22.160 --> 0:01:23.959 same as the bowl season coming up next month with 0:01:24.000 --> 0:01:27.400 college football. So yeah, the holidays and the weekends, it's 0:01:27.480 --> 0:01:29.400 kind of a reverse holl you know, Tuesday and Wednesday 0:01:29.480 --> 0:01:31.760 or my off days. The weekends and the holidays are busy, 0:01:31.800 --> 0:01:34.240 and Thanksgivings great because you get that tripleheader of NFL action. 0:01:34.319 --> 0:01:36.800 Of course. Yeah, well, as we were talking about before 0:01:36.800 --> 0:01:39.360 we started recording, this is not your first show of 0:01:39.360 --> 0:01:41.160 the day. You've been doing quite a bit of work today, 0:01:41.200 --> 0:01:43.200 So let's get onto it and we can get you 0:01:43.240 --> 0:01:45.000 on so you can have you know, five minutes to 0:01:45.040 --> 0:01:47.560 catch your breath on the day. As usual, Steve and 0:01:47.560 --> 0:01:49.600 I are going to be breaking down three of our favorite 0:01:49.600 --> 0:01:51.680 bets of the week, one bet to avoid and one 0:01:51.760 --> 0:01:53.840 prop bet that we're interested in. But before we get 0:01:53.840 --> 0:01:57.040 into it, let's do some full disclosure revisit last week's picks. 0:01:57.360 --> 0:01:59.120 I hit on the Seahawks getting one and a half 0:01:59.160 --> 0:02:01.520 from the Eagles, Bengals getting six and a half from 0:02:01.520 --> 0:02:03.640 the Steelers, but I missed on the Packers and the 0:02:03.680 --> 0:02:05.880 Niners over forty seven and a half, and on my 0:02:05.960 --> 0:02:08.840 top prop, which was Oldell Beckham Junior going over one 0:02:08.960 --> 0:02:11.160 hundred yards, he fell just a bit short. Our guest 0:02:11.200 --> 0:02:13.200 Greg Smith hit on the Jets getting three from the 0:02:13.280 --> 0:02:15.840 Raiders and the Ravens giving three did the Rams, but 0:02:15.919 --> 0:02:17.600 he missed on the Dolphins getting ten and a half 0:02:17.639 --> 0:02:20.880 against the Browns and Darren Waller over fifty receiving yards. 0:02:21.000 --> 0:02:23.280 So a bit of a mix bag for both of us, Steve. 0:02:23.320 --> 0:02:25.520 People have turkey to eat, injuries to fake so they 0:02:25.520 --> 0:02:27.200 can line bed and watch football. So go ahead and 0:02:27.240 --> 0:02:29.600 get us started. What's your first pick of the week. 0:02:29.760 --> 0:02:31.440 Yeah, we're gonna start with one of this. We're gonna 0:02:31.480 --> 0:02:33.480 use all the Sunday games here, so give the listeners 0:02:33.520 --> 0:02:35.120 a little extra time to get him into their joining this, 0:02:35.160 --> 0:02:37.480 you know on Friday or Saturday. And the first game 0:02:37.520 --> 0:02:39.480 I want to look at is actually one of the 0:02:39.480 --> 0:02:42.720 early kickoff games on Sunday, December first, by the way, 0:02:42.720 --> 0:02:45.040 so we're looking at games all of next month taking place, 0:02:45.040 --> 0:02:47.120 so no November games here. It's hard to believe December 0:02:47.160 --> 0:02:48.639 is here. But you can take a look at the 0:02:48.639 --> 0:02:51.680 green Bay Packers though they're at the Giants, and this 0:02:51.760 --> 0:02:53.600 line's been moving around this week. You know, seven is 0:02:53.600 --> 0:02:55.440 a very key number in the NFL, the second most 0:02:55.520 --> 0:02:58.280 key number after three. About five percent of the time 0:02:58.320 --> 0:03:00.720 favorites win back exactly seven points, and this line was 0:03:00.760 --> 0:03:02.960 seven and a half initially early in the week. It's 0:03:03.000 --> 0:03:04.919 not a solid six and a half across the board 0:03:04.960 --> 0:03:07.520 in almost all locations, and I think there's some value 0:03:07.520 --> 0:03:10.120 now with the Packers laying less than a touchdown. This 0:03:10.200 --> 0:03:12.040 is a green Bay team that was in a terrible 0:03:12.120 --> 0:03:15.680 matchup last Sunday night against San Francisco. You know, many 0:03:15.680 --> 0:03:17.360 of the shows I did last week asked me about 0:03:17.360 --> 0:03:19.840 that game because it was a big spotlight game, and 0:03:19.880 --> 0:03:21.400 one of the things I jumped out to me was 0:03:21.440 --> 0:03:23.920 the fact that the forty nine Ers pass defense has 0:03:23.960 --> 0:03:25.679 been as good as anyone's in the league this year, 0:03:26.000 --> 0:03:27.720 and Green Bay does not run the ball well. They're 0:03:27.760 --> 0:03:29.880 a pass happy offense with Aaron Rodgers so it was 0:03:29.919 --> 0:03:33.200 a terrible matchup. It showed as they managed only eight points. 0:03:33.560 --> 0:03:35.480 But I think this is a bounce back spot. Now, 0:03:35.520 --> 0:03:37.560 I always like to play Class eight teams, whether it 0:03:37.640 --> 0:03:41.200 be the NBA or the NFL. Awful loss. Packer's still 0:03:41.200 --> 0:03:43.320 eight and three on the season, the Giants two to nine. 0:03:43.760 --> 0:03:46.160 This is a focused spot. And then he had the 0:03:46.160 --> 0:03:47.800 fact that the Giants have one of the worst pass 0:03:47.880 --> 0:03:50.280 defenses in the NFL game up over eight yards per pass. 0:03:50.320 --> 0:03:52.400 Now to can trust that with San Francisco. The Niners 0:03:52.440 --> 0:03:55.440 allow four point six, the Giants allow eight point one. 0:03:55.520 --> 0:03:57.119 That's how much of a difference it is from last 0:03:57.120 --> 0:03:59.160 week to this week. I think the Packers take full 0:03:59.160 --> 0:04:00.480 advantage in a double win. 0:04:00.640 --> 0:04:03.600 Yeah, everything sets up well for the Packers in this game, particularly, 0:04:03.640 --> 0:04:05.840 you know, just you know, it's more of a narrative 0:04:05.880 --> 0:04:08.440 at this point, you know, rather than you know, statistical 0:04:08.560 --> 0:04:11.280 sports handicapping or anything like that. But obviously they're pretty 0:04:11.280 --> 0:04:13.840 desperate now for the win, and they were embarrassed on 0:04:15.160 --> 0:04:17.080 national television, So this sets up as a game where 0:04:17.080 --> 0:04:19.640 they're going to come in and go hard. One thing 0:04:19.640 --> 0:04:21.440 that I'm i'm I want to ask you about since 0:04:21.440 --> 0:04:24.320 you're obviously professional handicapper is from everything I'm looking at, 0:04:24.360 --> 0:04:25.719 you know, I don't have all the data, but it 0:04:25.760 --> 0:04:28.000 looks like the vast majority of both the number of 0:04:28.040 --> 0:04:30.400 bets and the money are coming in on the Packers 0:04:30.520 --> 0:04:33.000 and this game. But I'm not sure why the line 0:04:33.040 --> 0:04:35.320 then has gone down from seven and a half to six 0:04:35.320 --> 0:04:37.440 and a half. Is that just a factor of the 0:04:37.480 --> 0:04:39.000 fact that, you know, the look at line of seven 0:04:39.000 --> 0:04:41.440 and a half the Packers looked so terrible coming in, 0:04:41.560 --> 0:04:44.320 you know, against the Niners, that would account for the 0:04:44.360 --> 0:04:46.839 line movement, or because you know, ordinarily, when you see 0:04:47.240 --> 0:04:50.040 you know, that much money in particular coming in on 0:04:50.040 --> 0:04:51.800 one side, you would expect the line to go up 0:04:51.880 --> 0:04:52.559 rather than down. 0:04:52.880 --> 0:04:54.640 Yeah, to be honest, the look ahead seven and a 0:04:54.640 --> 0:04:56.800 half line really was, as you said, before that game 0:04:56.920 --> 0:05:00.719 kicked off on Sunday night. Most sportsbooks ever opened any 0:05:00.760 --> 0:05:03.359 higher than seven after that, and some that open up 0:05:03.400 --> 0:05:06.239 on Monday and Tuesday have always been six and a half. 0:05:06.279 --> 0:05:08.200 So gosh, you know, there was briefly a seven and 0:05:08.240 --> 0:05:10.359 a half out there, but realistically the opener was probably 0:05:10.440 --> 0:05:12.560 seven even six and a half. But you bring up 0:05:12.560 --> 0:05:14.679 a good point. Normally in the NFL, I am rarely 0:05:14.720 --> 0:05:16.520 on the side of the public, and this does look 0:05:16.520 --> 0:05:18.640 like a public pick. I think it might be a 0:05:18.680 --> 0:05:20.720 little less public though, as you mentioned, because Green Bay 0:05:20.760 --> 0:05:22.920 looked so bad last week and the odds makers probably 0:05:22.960 --> 0:05:25.040 adjusted that in. I wouldn't be surprised to see this 0:05:25.080 --> 0:05:26.960 game hit seven though by Sunday. I think the public 0:05:26.960 --> 0:05:28.280 will come back in and push it back to that 0:05:28.360 --> 0:05:28.840 key number. 0:05:29.000 --> 0:05:30.560 Yeah, I do like it below the key number. But 0:05:30.640 --> 0:05:33.120 you know, look, I agree with the point about the public, 0:05:33.160 --> 0:05:35.640 but sometimes it's all right. I mean, the public exactly 0:05:35.640 --> 0:05:38.040 certainly back in the Ravens this past week against the Rams, 0:05:38.040 --> 0:05:40.440 so I was fine with that. As for me, I'm 0:05:40.520 --> 0:05:43.960 actually going to take the Rams, who were embarrassed laying 0:05:44.000 --> 0:05:46.200 three did the Cardinals, and the Cardinals have been a 0:05:46.200 --> 0:05:49.159 tough team to bet against. There almost been a guaranteed 0:05:49.200 --> 0:05:51.320 cover for pretty much the entire season. They're five to 0:05:51.360 --> 0:05:53.600 one and one against the spread over their last seven games. 0:05:53.720 --> 0:05:55.800 They're home, they're coming off a bye, So certainly, on 0:05:55.800 --> 0:05:58.279 the surface, things look good here for the Cardinals. Not 0:05:58.320 --> 0:06:00.320 as well for the Rams to cover the three points spread. 0:06:00.360 --> 0:06:02.920 But you know, I just mentioned how the Packers are 0:06:02.960 --> 0:06:06.039 extremely desperate. They're not quite as desperate as the Rams. 0:06:06.480 --> 0:06:08.440 I mean, look, they're six and five with the Vikings, 0:06:08.480 --> 0:06:11.120 the Packers, the Seahawks. They have almost no chance at 0:06:11.120 --> 0:06:13.000 a wild card if they don't win this game, and 0:06:13.040 --> 0:06:14.359 I think they're going to and I think they're going 0:06:14.400 --> 0:06:17.559 to win big. The offense has looked broken. Jared Goff 0:06:17.600 --> 0:06:20.040 did not throw a touchdown pass in the month of November. 0:06:20.080 --> 0:06:22.520 They've been held to seventeen points or less in three 0:06:22.560 --> 0:06:24.520 straight games. But this is kind of the matchup that 0:06:24.560 --> 0:06:27.640 the Doctor ordered. The Cardinals, ring twenty ninth in defensive DVOA, 0:06:28.080 --> 0:06:30.520 thirtieth in points allowed per game, thirty first in yards 0:06:30.520 --> 0:06:33.280 allowed per game, thirty second in passing yards allowed per game. 0:06:33.320 --> 0:06:35.920 This just gives me that feeling where you know, the 0:06:36.000 --> 0:06:37.800 Rams got shut down by the forty nine ers a 0:06:37.839 --> 0:06:39.960 few weeks back, and then they bounce back big and 0:06:40.040 --> 0:06:42.920 destroyed the Falcons thirty seven to ten. Their offensive line 0:06:42.960 --> 0:06:45.160 is terrible, but they have all three of their receivers back. 0:06:45.160 --> 0:06:47.039 They're going to be able to use play action. I 0:06:47.040 --> 0:06:48.520 think they're going to be able to get on back 0:06:48.600 --> 0:06:51.320 on track here and put up some points offensively. And 0:06:51.360 --> 0:06:53.600 the Cardinals look they'll be able to put up points too. 0:06:53.600 --> 0:06:55.400 They've been doing it a lot lately, despite two of 0:06:55.400 --> 0:06:58.480 their last three matchups being against the forty nine ers. 0:06:58.520 --> 0:07:02.160 But you know, even though you know, the Rams were 0:07:02.200 --> 0:07:05.839 completely blown out by the Ravens, they've been very solid 0:07:06.080 --> 0:07:10.040 defensively overall, particularly since trading for Jalen Ramsey. They're eleventh 0:07:10.080 --> 0:07:13.680 in defensive DVOA and with the Cardinals offensive line struggling, 0:07:14.240 --> 0:07:17.200 you know, generally speaking, I think that Kyler Murray's is 0:07:17.240 --> 0:07:19.920 probably going to be dealing with, you know, some pressure 0:07:19.960 --> 0:07:22.480 and he's able to escape it. But at the very least, 0:07:22.520 --> 0:07:24.440 I think they'll be able to slow down the Cardinals 0:07:24.560 --> 0:07:26.200 enough to get out here with the big leads. So 0:07:26.240 --> 0:07:27.840 at three, I think the worst case for me I'm 0:07:27.840 --> 0:07:29.560 looking at is a push. I feel pretty confident that 0:07:29.560 --> 0:07:31.480 the Rams are going to win the game, So I 0:07:31.880 --> 0:07:33.680 feel like here they're going to win my more than three, 0:07:33.680 --> 0:07:35.920 But at absolute worst, I take him there. So I'll 0:07:35.920 --> 0:07:37.760 take the Rams lang three, even though they're on the 0:07:37.800 --> 0:07:40.160 road against the Cardinals team off a bye, I feel 0:07:40.160 --> 0:07:40.920 pretty good about him. 0:07:40.960 --> 0:07:42.520 Yeah, I think the real X factor there, as you 0:07:42.560 --> 0:07:44.760 mentioned it, is the bye week. You know, you never 0:07:44.800 --> 0:07:46.120 know how teams respond from that. 0:07:46.160 --> 0:07:46.400 Buye. 0:07:46.760 --> 0:07:48.760 In general, when people ask me how do you handicap 0:07:48.800 --> 0:07:50.320 by weeks in the NFL? I always say I take 0:07:50.360 --> 0:07:52.320 a contrarian view, meaning that if you know a team 0:07:52.360 --> 0:07:54.840 is red hot, sometimes they regress. If a team is 0:07:54.880 --> 0:07:57.840 really struggling, they play well. Textbook example. By the way, 0:07:57.920 --> 0:08:00.640 was the Atlanta Falcons terrible for the start of the season. 0:08:00.640 --> 0:08:02.040 They had that buy a few weeks when they come 0:08:02.040 --> 0:08:05.000 out back to back underdog wins, including the Saints. So 0:08:05.040 --> 0:08:06.680 we'll see if it helps the Cardinals. I think the 0:08:06.680 --> 0:08:09.000 buye came in a really good time for them. Obviously, 0:08:09.000 --> 0:08:10.200 this is the team that was on a four game 0:08:10.200 --> 0:08:12.600 losing streak heading into the bye week. But they're not 0:08:12.640 --> 0:08:15.000 a good team still, and at some point I expect 0:08:15.040 --> 0:08:16.880 the Rams to wake up. I thought there was value 0:08:16.880 --> 0:08:18.280 with them on Monday Night. I had a plan them 0:08:18.280 --> 0:08:19.840 at plus three and a half for my clients. It 0:08:19.880 --> 0:08:22.600 obviously did not work out. I thought that line was 0:08:22.680 --> 0:08:25.560 ridiculously inflated based on how good the Ravens had looked. 0:08:26.000 --> 0:08:28.360 You know, LA's probably maybe what a six point favorite 0:08:28.360 --> 0:08:30.360 when the season begins against Baltimore than they were three 0:08:30.400 --> 0:08:33.440 and a half point dog this week. But with that said, 0:08:33.480 --> 0:08:35.760 they have underachieved. I also liked them the week before 0:08:35.760 --> 0:08:38.400 against Pittsburgh, so I don't disagree with you. It's two 0:08:38.400 --> 0:08:39.800 weeks in a row. I've lost with the Rams. I'm 0:08:39.800 --> 0:08:42.200 probably not the best person to ask, you know, as 0:08:42.200 --> 0:08:44.240 far as you know when to play them. But that 0:08:44.320 --> 0:08:46.760 Super Bowl loser situation seems to work a year after 0:08:46.840 --> 0:08:49.040 year where they always regress. And LA's definitely having a 0:08:49.080 --> 0:08:51.560 down season so far, and it'll be interesting if they 0:08:51.600 --> 0:08:53.280 can't take advantage of areas out of this week. I'd 0:08:53.280 --> 0:08:54.680 be very careful with them going forward. 0:08:54.840 --> 0:08:57.600 Oh absolutely, And again I'm completely with you. I was 0:08:57.600 --> 0:09:00.200 certainly on the Rams early on, and look, the Rams were, 0:09:00.240 --> 0:09:02.600 you know, the sharp side really, you know, against the 0:09:03.080 --> 0:09:04.960 Ravens this past week. But it was just one of 0:09:04.960 --> 0:09:06.480 these things where you know, I think if you have 0:09:06.559 --> 0:09:10.480 any remote pass rush, I think golf is just useless 0:09:10.559 --> 0:09:12.840 essentially at this point. And I really don't expect the 0:09:12.840 --> 0:09:14.400 Cardinals to be able to get pressure on them, and 0:09:14.440 --> 0:09:16.280 because of that, I think that they're going to be 0:09:16.320 --> 0:09:18.160 able to put up points. So, you know, I agree, 0:09:18.240 --> 0:09:20.400 if they lose this game, then you know, forget it. 0:09:20.520 --> 0:09:21.920 You can forget them for the rest of the season, 0:09:21.960 --> 0:09:23.520 but I'm willing to roll with them one more time 0:09:23.760 --> 0:09:26.160 at a point where they're probably most desperate all the year. 0:09:26.280 --> 0:09:27.880 Let's go to your second pick. What do you got here? 0:09:28.000 --> 0:09:29.640 Yeah, we're gonna look at an over under. And since 0:09:29.640 --> 0:09:31.840 we're talking about the Ravens, this is a good transition 0:09:31.880 --> 0:09:33.600 into the forty nine Er Ravens game. You know, and 0:09:33.640 --> 0:09:36.520 I mentioned this earlier with my Packers selection. You know, 0:09:36.520 --> 0:09:38.439 it was a great matchup for San Francisco last week 0:09:38.440 --> 0:09:40.559 because they have the best pass defense in the NFL. 0:09:40.880 --> 0:09:43.160 But the forty nine Ers run defense has been very 0:09:43.200 --> 0:09:46.760 suspect this year. They allow four point seven yards per carry, 0:09:47.520 --> 0:09:49.520 and now they're facing the best rushing attack in the 0:09:49.640 --> 0:09:52.240 NFL and the Baltimore Ravens. Now, I'm not going to 0:09:52.280 --> 0:09:54.280 necessarily jump on the Ravens though as a side pick, 0:09:54.320 --> 0:09:56.480 because as I mentioned, the public is all over them. 0:09:56.480 --> 0:09:59.120 The line just continues to be inflated. I was even 0:09:59.160 --> 0:10:01.319 surprised to see that six this week. In this game, 0:10:01.600 --> 0:10:03.560 San Francisco has been as good as anybody in the NFL. 0:10:03.600 --> 0:10:05.400 So basically, the odds makers are saying the Ravens are 0:10:05.440 --> 0:10:08.760 three points better at least than San Francisco maybe it's 0:10:08.800 --> 0:10:10.800 just two points, because home field could worth be worth 0:10:10.840 --> 0:10:13.400 about four here it is a west coast to east 0:10:13.480 --> 0:10:15.760 coast spot. Both teams played the Sunday and Monday night 0:10:15.760 --> 0:10:18.920 primetime games, but this will be a ten am Pacific 0:10:19.000 --> 0:10:22.000 kickoff for San Francisco, so I'd be careful with them, 0:10:22.000 --> 0:10:24.480 but I don't necessarily want Baltimore even with the inflated price. 0:10:24.520 --> 0:10:26.760 I think the best way to play this game is 0:10:26.800 --> 0:10:29.040 the over under, and the over looks like the way 0:10:29.080 --> 0:10:30.920 to go. I mean, obviously, the Ravens have been an 0:10:30.920 --> 0:10:34.200 offensive juggernaut this season, but the total is just forty 0:10:34.240 --> 0:10:37.000 seven in this game, and that's because San Francisco's defensive 0:10:37.040 --> 0:10:39.520 numbers have been so good. This is really crazy to 0:10:39.559 --> 0:10:41.880 if you look at it. San Francisco averages thirty points 0:10:41.880 --> 0:10:44.800 a game, the Ravens averaged thirty five points a game. 0:10:45.080 --> 0:10:48.600 At sixty five, the totals forty seven. Now, the reason 0:10:48.720 --> 0:10:51.079 isn't because Baltimore's defense is great. They allow eighteen and 0:10:51.120 --> 0:10:52.920 a half a game, but I think they are mediocre defense. 0:10:52.960 --> 0:10:54.720 In fact, they give up five point eight yards per 0:10:54.800 --> 0:10:58.120 play against teams that averages five point six, so theoretically 0:10:58.120 --> 0:11:00.520 they are below average defense on the yards per play basis. 0:11:01.040 --> 0:11:03.000 The reason this total is only forty seven is because 0:11:03.000 --> 0:11:04.880 the forty nine Ers defense gives up less than fifteen 0:11:04.880 --> 0:11:07.200 points a game, and they have been fantastic this year 0:11:07.400 --> 0:11:09.520 four point six yards per play against teams at average 0:11:09.559 --> 0:11:12.040 five point six. But they haven't faced an offense like this, 0:11:12.160 --> 0:11:14.880 you know, the Patriots offense. Our defense had been fantastic 0:11:14.920 --> 0:11:17.280 all season also until a few weeks ago when they 0:11:17.280 --> 0:11:19.719 gave up thirty seven. And I just don't see them 0:11:19.720 --> 0:11:22.440 slowing down Baltimore, especially with the below average run defense. 0:11:22.679 --> 0:11:24.480 I think there's value with over forty seven. You know, 0:11:24.480 --> 0:11:26.520 it seems like a public pick being a Raven's over, 0:11:27.040 --> 0:11:28.920 just like the Packers are public. But once again, I'm 0:11:28.920 --> 0:11:30.640 not afraid to be on the public side here. I 0:11:30.679 --> 0:11:32.240 actually think that total is way too low. 0:11:32.520 --> 0:11:34.680 Yeah, I'm in agreement with you. I was a little 0:11:34.760 --> 0:11:37.280 surprised on it. Look the Ravens, they're gonna be able 0:11:37.320 --> 0:11:40.120 to score against anyone right now. I get that they're 0:11:40.160 --> 0:11:42.840 probably playing at the height of what they're able to do, 0:11:42.920 --> 0:11:44.840 but I think I read a stat that said they 0:11:44.880 --> 0:11:48.520 have not punted in a drive led by Lamar Jackson 0:11:48.559 --> 0:11:50.480 in three games or something like that. I mean, he 0:11:50.559 --> 0:11:53.679 is just really his speed and you know, just the 0:11:53.720 --> 0:11:56.959 offense that they're running over there, it's really really difficult 0:11:56.960 --> 0:11:59.160 to slow down, even with the defense as good as 0:11:59.200 --> 0:12:01.120 the forty nine Ers been, and of course, you know 0:12:01.200 --> 0:12:03.760 they the strength of the Ravens in what they're trying 0:12:03.800 --> 0:12:05.960 to do is run the ball effectively and to the 0:12:06.000 --> 0:12:08.440 extent there is a spot to attack the forty nine 0:12:08.520 --> 0:12:10.880 ers defense, it is more on the run specifically, since 0:12:11.000 --> 0:12:14.200 you know, kwant Alexander went out and yeah, you know 0:12:14.600 --> 0:12:16.360 the Ravens defense. I mean, I think I like them 0:12:16.400 --> 0:12:19.520 a little bit more, probably than as you've described, just 0:12:19.520 --> 0:12:22.120 because I think a lot of their season long statistics 0:12:22.360 --> 0:12:24.840 were influenced early on when they were dealing with a 0:12:24.840 --> 0:12:27.680 lot more injuries. You know, Brandon Williams really hurt their 0:12:27.720 --> 0:12:29.840 ability to stop the run and everything like that. They 0:12:29.880 --> 0:12:31.480 were banged up in the secondary. I do think that 0:12:31.520 --> 0:12:33.480 they're playing better lately, but I agree, I mean, lo, 0:12:33.600 --> 0:12:36.920 Kyle Shanahan is perhaps the most creative offensive coach in 0:12:36.960 --> 0:12:38.720 the game, so he is going to be able to 0:12:39.480 --> 0:12:42.120 devise certain things. So I'm in good lead agreement with you. 0:12:42.160 --> 0:12:44.120 When I saw it, you know it struck me as well. 0:12:44.240 --> 0:12:45.400 That's what I try to look at when I look 0:12:45.400 --> 0:12:48.000 at the lines, I just take my gut reaction before 0:12:48.000 --> 0:12:50.040 I really dive into it, and my gut reaction was 0:12:50.080 --> 0:12:53.120 certainly it was low. So you know, we do picks 0:12:53.160 --> 0:12:54.880 on bettingpros dot com. You know, I don't know one 0:12:54.960 --> 0:12:58.040 hundred and fifty. You know, quote unquote experts make picks. 0:12:58.040 --> 0:12:59.760 And I've already locked in the over on that one, 0:12:59.800 --> 0:13:01.959 so I'm in total agreement with you. I'm gonna go 0:13:02.480 --> 0:13:04.480 also with an over here, and you know, Steve, I 0:13:04.480 --> 0:13:06.400 think you're gonna disagree with this one, but we'll talk 0:13:06.400 --> 0:13:07.920 about it for a second. And I do want to 0:13:07.920 --> 0:13:10.480 make it clear. When I picked it, it was at forty six. 0:13:10.559 --> 0:13:12.880 It has moved to forty seven. It's been trending up. 0:13:13.320 --> 0:13:14.800 So I locked it in when it was forty six, 0:13:14.800 --> 0:13:16.240 and I feel better about that. I'll still take it 0:13:16.280 --> 0:13:18.480 at forty seven because what the heck. And I will 0:13:18.520 --> 0:13:20.240 go on a Thanksgiving game, even though some people, when 0:13:20.240 --> 0:13:22.000 you're listening to this, it may be late. But you know, 0:13:22.040 --> 0:13:23.920 we never get to do Thursday games on the show 0:13:23.920 --> 0:13:26.520 because we usually record on Thursday. So I'm gonna do it. 0:13:26.520 --> 0:13:28.239 And I'm going to take the Bills and the Cowboys 0:13:28.640 --> 0:13:31.640 over forty seven. Again, as often happens, it was forty 0:13:31.679 --> 0:13:34.040 six when I sort of looked at it and decided 0:13:34.080 --> 0:13:35.679 to make the pick. But I'll stick with it at 0:13:35.679 --> 0:13:38.560 forty seven. The Cowboys ranked sixth in the NFL in 0:13:38.640 --> 0:13:41.160 scoring at nearly twenty seven points per game. They're even 0:13:41.160 --> 0:13:44.000 better at home, averaging more than thirty points per game. 0:13:44.040 --> 0:13:48.040 They're second in offensive DVOA. That's obviously including this past 0:13:48.040 --> 0:13:51.319 weekend where they did absolutely nothing against the Patriots. It's 0:13:51.360 --> 0:13:52.840 kind of like the Rams. I expect this to be 0:13:52.840 --> 0:13:54.600 a little bit of a bounce back effort for Dallas, 0:13:54.679 --> 0:13:57.600 and particularly offensively. And the Bills have a great defense, 0:13:57.640 --> 0:13:59.720 the ranked third in the NFL, but certainly some of 0:13:59.760 --> 0:14:02.000 that has been their schedule, which has been one of, 0:14:02.160 --> 0:14:05.400 if not the single easiest schedule in the NFL. And 0:14:05.559 --> 0:14:07.520 you've seen you know, they've got a great defense, but 0:14:07.640 --> 0:14:10.640 they're much better pass defense. They're a bit vulnerable against 0:14:10.679 --> 0:14:13.160 the run. And even though Ezekiel Elliott has not torn 0:14:13.200 --> 0:14:15.040 it up of late, he's likely going to get going 0:14:15.320 --> 0:14:16.520 in this game. And I think they're going to be 0:14:16.559 --> 0:14:18.480 able to move the ball through the air too, give 0:14:18.520 --> 0:14:20.720 him the play action. They've given up the fewest sacks 0:14:20.720 --> 0:14:23.480 in the NFL, even with Amari Cooper matched up against 0:14:23.520 --> 0:14:25.360 Tradavius Right. Cooper is coming off a game where he 0:14:25.440 --> 0:14:27.440 was shut out. You know he's going to get at 0:14:27.520 --> 0:14:29.360 least a little bit more there. And Michael Gallup is 0:14:29.360 --> 0:14:32.200 playing well as well. And they're even getting Rendal Cobb involved. 0:14:32.240 --> 0:14:34.440 So the Cowboys know this game they obviously play on 0:14:34.440 --> 0:14:37.000 Thanksgiving every year. The quick turnaround, I think they'll be 0:14:37.040 --> 0:14:39.280 ready to go, But I also expect Buffalo to be 0:14:39.320 --> 0:14:41.880 able to score two. They're featuring Devin Singletary a bit more. 0:14:41.920 --> 0:14:44.960 They just gashed a very strong Denver run defense. On 0:14:45.000 --> 0:14:48.040 the ground, Josh Allen is really able to extend plays. 0:14:48.080 --> 0:14:51.160 But in particular, you know, even though you've got, you know, 0:14:51.200 --> 0:14:52.680 two teams that are going to run the ball a lot. 0:14:52.720 --> 0:14:55.040 So that's usually good for the under because it takes 0:14:55.080 --> 0:14:57.440 up you know, longer drives, takes up clock. But the 0:14:57.480 --> 0:15:01.960 Cowboys generally are pretty they play fast, and really, when 0:15:01.960 --> 0:15:04.320 I was looking at the Bills last week, they really 0:15:04.360 --> 0:15:07.640 played up tempo. They went no huddle a ton. I 0:15:07.640 --> 0:15:09.360 mean it was something like, you know, forty percent of 0:15:09.400 --> 0:15:12.000 the time close to that. They ran seventy three plays 0:15:12.080 --> 0:15:14.160 last week. I think that's what they're going to try 0:15:14.160 --> 0:15:16.280 to come out and do. Their offense looked better against 0:15:16.280 --> 0:15:18.920 a tough defense, so I expect them to also try 0:15:18.960 --> 0:15:21.920 to play fast, which again to me, strikes me as 0:15:21.920 --> 0:15:24.280 something that's going to lean towards the over. So you know, 0:15:24.440 --> 0:15:26.360 in the end, the total strending up here, as I 0:15:26.360 --> 0:15:28.280 mentioned it, I looked at it. It was forty five and 0:15:28.280 --> 0:15:29.680 a half at one point. I got it when it 0:15:29.720 --> 0:15:31.720 was forty six. It's now at forty seven on our 0:15:31.760 --> 0:15:33.960 Consentuve ods, so I could see the under I think 0:15:34.000 --> 0:15:36.960 the under looked quote unquote like the sharp play given 0:15:37.000 --> 0:15:39.000 all the reasons I discussed, But I'm going to go 0:15:39.080 --> 0:15:42.520 over here with forty seven for the Bills and the Cowboys. Yeah. 0:15:42.520 --> 0:15:44.360 Actually, I think the sharp money agrees with you. This 0:15:44.440 --> 0:15:46.440 was as low as forty five even in some spots 0:15:46.440 --> 0:15:48.560 when it opened, and it is up to forty six 0:15:48.680 --> 0:15:50.760