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Speaker 1: Hey there everyone, Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast,

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Speaker 1: brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan

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Speaker 1: Harris and you can find me on Twitter at Dan

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Speaker 1: Harris Ady. We are recording our usual Thursday episode on

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Speaker 1: Wednesday this week in lin of Thanksgiving. Good news is

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Speaker 1: that the Thursday games are on the table, so maybe

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Speaker 1: you'll even be able to get some betting action in

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Speaker 1: with your turkey and pumpkin pie. As always, we're going

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Speaker 1: to be breaking down some of our favorite and our

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Speaker 1: least favorite bets for the week thirteen NFL slate. And

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Speaker 1: with me to talk about it all is Steve Merrill,

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Speaker 1: a professional handicapper and owner of Pro sportsinfo dot com.

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Speaker 1: You can find him on Twitter at his name at

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Speaker 1: Steve Merrill. That's me E R R I L Steve.

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Speaker 1: How's it going, Hey?

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Speaker 2: Dan?

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Speaker 1: Doing well? What's your Thanksgiving look like?

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Speaker 2: Usually?

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Speaker 1: I mean, are you just parked them from the TV

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Speaker 1: watching the games all day? You got a big family thing?

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Speaker 1: What's going on?

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Speaker 2: You know? This is my twenty fourth year as a

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Speaker 2: full time professional handicapper. I started Pro SPORTSMFO dot com

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Speaker 2: back in ninetheen ninety six, so twenty four football seasons

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Speaker 2: now over half my life as a professional. So unfortunately

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Speaker 2: this time of year, the holidays is the busiest time

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Speaker 2: of year for me. You know, my off season is

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Speaker 2: July when there's a little bit of baseball going on,

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Speaker 2: and yeah, this time of year with the holidays, it's busy,

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Speaker 2: but it's fun also because you get the family element.

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Speaker 2: You also get the football element. And know it's the

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Speaker 2: same as the bowl season coming up next month with

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Speaker 2: college football. So yeah, the holidays and the weekends, it's

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Speaker 2: kind of a reverse holl you know, Tuesday and Wednesday

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Speaker 2: or my off days. The weekends and the holidays are busy,

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Speaker 2: and Thanksgivings great because you get that tripleheader of NFL action.

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Speaker 1: Of course. Yeah, well, as we were talking about before

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Speaker 1: we started recording, this is not your first show of

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Speaker 1: the day. You've been doing quite a bit of work today,

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Speaker 1: So let's get onto it and we can get you

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Speaker 1: on so you can have you know, five minutes to

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Speaker 1: catch your breath on the day. As usual, Steve and

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Speaker 1: I are going to be breaking down three of our favorite

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Speaker 1: bets of the week, one bet to avoid and one

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Speaker 1: prop bet that we're interested in. But before we get

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Speaker 1: into it, let's do some full disclosure revisit last week's picks.

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Speaker 1: I hit on the Seahawks getting one and a half

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Speaker 1: from the Eagles, Bengals getting six and a half from

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Speaker 1: the Steelers, but I missed on the Packers and the

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Speaker 1: Niners over forty seven and a half, and on my

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Speaker 1: top prop, which was Oldell Beckham Junior going over one

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Speaker 1: hundred yards, he fell just a bit short. Our guest

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Speaker 1: Greg Smith hit on the Jets getting three from the

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Speaker 1: Raiders and the Ravens giving three did the Rams, but

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Speaker 1: he missed on the Dolphins getting ten and a half

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Speaker 1: against the Browns and Darren Waller over fifty receiving yards.

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Speaker 1: So a bit of a mix bag for both of us, Steve.

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Speaker 1: People have turkey to eat, injuries to fake so they

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Speaker 1: can line bed and watch football. So go ahead and

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Speaker 1: get us started. What's your first pick of the week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we're gonna start with one of this. We're gonna

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Speaker 2: use all the Sunday games here, so give the listeners

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Speaker 2: a little extra time to get him into their joining this,

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Speaker 2: you know on Friday or Saturday. And the first game

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Speaker 2: I want to look at is actually one of the

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Speaker 2: early kickoff games on Sunday, December first, by the way,

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Speaker 2: so we're looking at games all of next month taking place,

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Speaker 2: so no November games here. It's hard to believe December

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Speaker 2: is here. But you can take a look at the

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Speaker 2: green Bay Packers though they're at the Giants, and this

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Speaker 2: line's been moving around this week. You know, seven is

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Speaker 2: a very key number in the NFL, the second most

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Speaker 2: key number after three. About five percent of the time

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Speaker 2: favorites win back exactly seven points, and this line was

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Speaker 2: seven and a half initially early in the week. It's

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Speaker 2: not a solid six and a half across the board

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Speaker 2: in almost all locations, and I think there's some value

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Speaker 2: now with the Packers laying less than a touchdown. This

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Speaker 2: is a green Bay team that was in a terrible

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Speaker 2: matchup last Sunday night against San Francisco. You know, many

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Speaker 2: of the shows I did last week asked me about

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Speaker 2: that game because it was a big spotlight game, and

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Speaker 2: one of the things I jumped out to me was

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Speaker 2: the fact that the forty nine Ers pass defense has

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Speaker 2: been as good as anyone's in the league this year,

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Speaker 2: and Green Bay does not run the ball well. They're

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Speaker 2: a pass happy offense with Aaron Rodgers so it was

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Speaker 2: a terrible matchup. It showed as they managed only eight points.

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Speaker 2: But I think this is a bounce back spot. Now,

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Speaker 2: I always like to play Class eight teams, whether it

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Speaker 2: be the NBA or the NFL. Awful loss. Packer's still

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Speaker 2: eight and three on the season, the Giants two to nine.

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Speaker 2: This is a focused spot. And then he had the

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Speaker 2: fact that the Giants have one of the worst pass

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Speaker 2: defenses in the NFL game up over eight yards per pass.

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Speaker 2: Now to can trust that with San Francisco. The Niners

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Speaker 2: allow four point six, the Giants allow eight point one.

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Speaker 2: That's how much of a difference it is from last

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Speaker 2: week to this week. I think the Packers take full

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Speaker 2: advantage in a double win.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, everything sets up well for the Packers in this game, particularly,

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Speaker 1: you know, just you know, it's more of a narrative

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Speaker 1: at this point, you know, rather than you know, statistical

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Speaker 1: sports handicapping or anything like that. But obviously they're pretty

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Speaker 1: desperate now for the win, and they were embarrassed on

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Speaker 1: national television, So this sets up as a game where

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Speaker 1: they're going to come in and go hard. One thing

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Speaker 1: that I'm i'm I want to ask you about since

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Speaker 1: you're obviously professional handicapper is from everything I'm looking at,

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Speaker 1: you know, I don't have all the data, but it

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Speaker 1: looks like the vast majority of both the number of

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Speaker 1: bets and the money are coming in on the Packers

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Speaker 1: and this game. But I'm not sure why the line

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Speaker 1: then has gone down from seven and a half to six

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Speaker 1: and a half. Is that just a factor of the

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Speaker 1: fact that, you know, the look at line of seven

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Speaker 1: and a half the Packers looked so terrible coming in,

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Speaker 1: you know, against the Niners, that would account for the

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Speaker 1: line movement, or because you know, ordinarily, when you see

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Speaker 1: you know, that much money in particular coming in on

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Speaker 1: one side, you would expect the line to go up

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Speaker 1: rather than down.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, to be honest, the look ahead seven and a

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Speaker 2: half line really was, as you said, before that game

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Speaker 2: kicked off on Sunday night. Most sportsbooks ever opened any

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Speaker 2: higher than seven after that, and some that open up

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Speaker 2: on Monday and Tuesday have always been six and a half.

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Speaker 2: So gosh, you know, there was briefly a seven and

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Speaker 2: a half out there, but realistically the opener was probably

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Speaker 2: seven even six and a half. But you bring up

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Speaker 2: a good point. Normally in the NFL, I am rarely

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Speaker 2: on the side of the public, and this does look

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Speaker 2: like a public pick. I think it might be a

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Speaker 2: little less public though, as you mentioned, because Green Bay

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Speaker 2: looked so bad last week and the odds makers probably

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Speaker 2: adjusted that in. I wouldn't be surprised to see this

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Speaker 2: game hit seven though by Sunday. I think the public

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Speaker 2: will come back in and push it back to that

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Speaker 2: key number.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I do like it below the key number. But

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Speaker 1: you know, look, I agree with the point about the public,

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Speaker 1: but sometimes it's all right. I mean, the public exactly

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Speaker 1: certainly back in the Ravens this past week against the Rams,

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Speaker 1: so I was fine with that. As for me, I'm

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Speaker 1: actually going to take the Rams, who were embarrassed laying

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Speaker 1: three did the Cardinals, and the Cardinals have been a

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Speaker 1: tough team to bet against. There almost been a guaranteed

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Speaker 1: cover for pretty much the entire season. They're five to

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Speaker 1: one and one against the spread over their last seven games.

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Speaker 1: They're home, they're coming off a bye, So certainly, on

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Speaker 1: the surface, things look good here for the Cardinals. Not

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Speaker 1: as well for the Rams to cover the three points spread.

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Speaker 1: But you know, I just mentioned how the Packers are

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Speaker 1: extremely desperate. They're not quite as desperate as the Rams.

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Speaker 1: I mean, look, they're six and five with the Vikings,

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Speaker 1: the Packers, the Seahawks. They have almost no chance at

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Speaker 1: a wild card if they don't win this game, and

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Speaker 1: I think they're going to and I think they're going

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Speaker 1: to win big. The offense has looked broken. Jared Goff

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Speaker 1: did not throw a touchdown pass in the month of November.

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Speaker 1: They've been held to seventeen points or less in three

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Speaker 1: straight games. But this is kind of the matchup that

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Speaker 1: the Doctor ordered. The Cardinals, ring twenty ninth in defensive DVOA,

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Speaker 1: thirtieth in points allowed per game, thirty first in yards

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Speaker 1: allowed per game, thirty second in passing yards allowed per game.

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Speaker 1: This just gives me that feeling where you know, the

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Speaker 1: Rams got shut down by the forty nine ers a

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Speaker 1: few weeks back, and then they bounce back big and

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Speaker 1: destroyed the Falcons thirty seven to ten. Their offensive line

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Speaker 1: is terrible, but they have all three of their receivers back.

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Speaker 1: They're going to be able to use play action. I

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Speaker 1: think they're going to be able to get on back

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Speaker 1: on track here and put up some points offensively. And

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Speaker 1: the Cardinals look they'll be able to put up points too.

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Speaker 1: They've been doing it a lot lately, despite two of

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Speaker 1: their last three matchups being against the forty nine ers.

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Speaker 1: But you know, even though you know, the Rams were

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Speaker 1: completely blown out by the Ravens, they've been very solid

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Speaker 1: defensively overall, particularly since trading for Jalen Ramsey. They're eleventh

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Speaker 1: in defensive DVOA and with the Cardinals offensive line struggling,

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Speaker 1: you know, generally speaking, I think that Kyler Murray's is

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Speaker 1: probably going to be dealing with, you know, some pressure

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Speaker 1: and he's able to escape it. But at the very least,

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Speaker 1: I think they'll be able to slow down the Cardinals

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Speaker 1: enough to get out here with the big leads. So

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Speaker 1: at three, I think the worst case for me I'm

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Speaker 1: looking at is a push. I feel pretty confident that

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Speaker 1: the Rams are going to win the game, So I

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Speaker 1: feel like here they're going to win my more than three,

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Speaker 1: But at absolute worst, I take him there. So I'll

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Speaker 1: take the Rams lang three, even though they're on the

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Speaker 1: road against the Cardinals team off a bye, I feel

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Speaker 1: pretty good about him.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the real X factor there, as you

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Speaker 2: mentioned it, is the bye week. You know, you never

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Speaker 2: know how teams respond from that.

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Speaker 1: Buye.

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Speaker 2: In general, when people ask me how do you handicap

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Speaker 2: by weeks in the NFL? I always say I take

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Speaker 2: a contrarian view, meaning that if you know a team

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Speaker 2: is red hot, sometimes they regress. If a team is

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Speaker 2: really struggling, they play well. Textbook example. By the way,

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Speaker 2: was the Atlanta Falcons terrible for the start of the season.

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Speaker 2: They had that buy a few weeks when they come

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Speaker 2: out back to back underdog wins, including the Saints. So

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Speaker 2: we'll see if it helps the Cardinals. I think the

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Speaker 2: buye came in a really good time for them. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: this is the team that was on a four game

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Speaker 2: losing streak heading into the bye week. But they're not

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Speaker 2: a good team still, and at some point I expect

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Speaker 2: the Rams to wake up. I thought there was value

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Speaker 2: with them on Monday Night. I had a plan them

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Speaker 2: at plus three and a half for my clients. It

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Speaker 2: obviously did not work out. I thought that line was

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Speaker 2: ridiculously inflated based on how good the Ravens had looked.

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Speaker 2: You know, LA's probably maybe what a six point favorite

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Speaker 2: when the season begins against Baltimore than they were three

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Speaker 2: and a half point dog this week. But with that said,

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Speaker 2: they have underachieved. I also liked them the week before

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Speaker 2: against Pittsburgh, so I don't disagree with you. It's two

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Speaker 2: weeks in a row. I've lost with the Rams. I'm

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Speaker 2: probably not the best person to ask, you know, as

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Speaker 2: far as you know when to play them. But that

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Speaker 2: Super Bowl loser situation seems to work a year after

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Speaker 2: year where they always regress. And LA's definitely having a

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Speaker 2: down season so far, and it'll be interesting if they

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Speaker 2: can't take advantage of areas out of this week. I'd

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Speaker 2: be very careful with them going forward.

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Speaker 1: Oh absolutely, And again I'm completely with you. I was

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Speaker 1: certainly on the Rams early on, and look, the Rams were,

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Speaker 1: you know, the sharp side really, you know, against the

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Speaker 1: Ravens this past week. But it was just one of

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Speaker 1: these things where you know, I think if you have

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Speaker 1: any remote pass rush, I think golf is just useless

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Speaker 1: essentially at this point. And I really don't expect the

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Speaker 1: Cardinals to be able to get pressure on them, and

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Speaker 1: because of that, I think that they're going to be

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Speaker 1: able to put up points. So, you know, I agree,

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Speaker 1: if they lose this game, then you know, forget it.

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Speaker 1: You can forget them for the rest of the season,

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Speaker 1: but I'm willing to roll with them one more time

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Speaker 1: at a point where they're probably most desperate all the year.

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Speaker 1: Let's go to your second pick. What do you got here?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we're gonna look at an over under. And since

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Speaker 2: we're talking about the Ravens, this is a good transition

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Speaker 2: into the forty nine Er Ravens game. You know, and

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Speaker 2: I mentioned this earlier with my Packers selection. You know,

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Speaker 2: it was a great matchup for San Francisco last week

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Speaker 2: because they have the best pass defense in the NFL.

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Speaker 2: But the forty nine Ers run defense has been very

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Speaker 2: suspect this year. They allow four point seven yards per carry,

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Speaker 2: and now they're facing the best rushing attack in the

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Speaker 2: NFL and the Baltimore Ravens. Now, I'm not going to

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Speaker 2: necessarily jump on the Ravens though as a side pick,

255
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Speaker 2: because as I mentioned, the public is all over them.

256
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Speaker 2: The line just continues to be inflated. I was even

257
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Speaker 2: surprised to see that six this week. In this game,

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Speaker 2: San Francisco has been as good as anybody in the NFL.

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Speaker 2: So basically, the odds makers are saying the Ravens are

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Speaker 2: three points better at least than San Francisco maybe it's

261
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Speaker 2: just two points, because home field could worth be worth

262
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Speaker 2: about four here it is a west coast to east

263
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Speaker 2: coast spot. Both teams played the Sunday and Monday night

264
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Speaker 2: primetime games, but this will be a ten am Pacific

265
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Speaker 2: kickoff for San Francisco, so I'd be careful with them,

266
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Speaker 2: but I don't necessarily want Baltimore even with the inflated price.

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Speaker 2: I think the best way to play this game is

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Speaker 2: the over under, and the over looks like the way

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Speaker 2: to go. I mean, obviously, the Ravens have been an

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Speaker 2: offensive juggernaut this season, but the total is just forty

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Speaker 2: seven in this game, and that's because San Francisco's defensive

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Speaker 2: numbers have been so good. This is really crazy to

273
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Speaker 2: if you look at it. San Francisco averages thirty points

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Speaker 2: a game, the Ravens averaged thirty five points a game.

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Speaker 2: At sixty five, the totals forty seven. Now, the reason

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Speaker 2: isn't because Baltimore's defense is great. They allow eighteen and

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Speaker 2: a half a game, but I think they are mediocre defense.

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Speaker 2: In fact, they give up five point eight yards per

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Speaker 2: play against teams that averages five point six, so theoretically

280
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Speaker 2: they are below average defense on the yards per play basis.

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Speaker 2: The reason this total is only forty seven is because

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Speaker 2: the forty nine Ers defense gives up less than fifteen

283
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Speaker 2: points a game, and they have been fantastic this year

284
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Speaker 2: four point six yards per play against teams at average

285
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Speaker 2: five point six. But they haven't faced an offense like this,

286
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Speaker 2: you know, the Patriots offense. Our defense had been fantastic

287
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Speaker 2: all season also until a few weeks ago when they

288
00:11:17,280 --> 00:11:19,719
Speaker 2: gave up thirty seven. And I just don't see them

289
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Speaker 2: slowing down Baltimore, especially with the below average run defense.

290
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Speaker 2: I think there's value with over forty seven. You know,

291
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Speaker 2: it seems like a public pick being a Raven's over,

292
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Speaker 2: just like the Packers are public. But once again, I'm

293
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Speaker 2: not afraid to be on the public side here. I

294
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Speaker 2: actually think that total is way too low.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm in agreement with you. I was a little

296
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Speaker 1: surprised on it. Look the Ravens, they're gonna be able

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Speaker 1: to score against anyone right now. I get that they're

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Speaker 1: probably playing at the height of what they're able to do,

299
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Speaker 1: but I think I read a stat that said they

300
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Speaker 1: have not punted in a drive led by Lamar Jackson

301
00:11:48,559 --> 00:11:50,480
Speaker 1: in three games or something like that. I mean, he

302
00:11:50,559 --> 00:11:53,679
Speaker 1: is just really his speed and you know, just the

303
00:11:53,720 --> 00:11:56,959
Speaker 1: offense that they're running over there, it's really really difficult

304
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Speaker 1: to slow down, even with the defense as good as

305
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Speaker 1: the forty nine Ers been, and of course, you know

306
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Speaker 1: they the strength of the Ravens in what they're trying

307
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Speaker 1: to do is run the ball effectively and to the

308
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Speaker 1: extent there is a spot to attack the forty nine

309
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Speaker 1: ers defense, it is more on the run specifically, since

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Speaker 1: you know, kwant Alexander went out and yeah, you know

311
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Speaker 1: the Ravens defense. I mean, I think I like them

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Speaker 1: a little bit more, probably than as you've described, just

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Speaker 1: because I think a lot of their season long statistics

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Speaker 1: were influenced early on when they were dealing with a

315
00:12:24,840 --> 00:12:27,680
Speaker 1: lot more injuries. You know, Brandon Williams really hurt their

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Speaker 1: ability to stop the run and everything like that. They

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Speaker 1: were banged up in the secondary. I do think that

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Speaker 1: they're playing better lately, but I agree, I mean, lo,

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Speaker 1: Kyle Shanahan is perhaps the most creative offensive coach in

320
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Speaker 1: the game, so he is going to be able to

321
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Speaker 1: devise certain things. So I'm in good lead agreement with you.

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Speaker 1: When I saw it, you know it struck me as well.

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Speaker 1: That's what I try to look at when I look

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Speaker 1: at the lines, I just take my gut reaction before

325
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Speaker 1: I really dive into it, and my gut reaction was

326
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Speaker 1: certainly it was low. So you know, we do picks

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Speaker 1: on bettingpros dot com. You know, I don't know one

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Speaker 1: hundred and fifty. You know, quote unquote experts make picks.

329
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Speaker 1: And I've already locked in the over on that one,

330
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Speaker 1: so I'm in total agreement with you. I'm gonna go

331
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Speaker 1: also with an over here, and you know, Steve, I

332
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Speaker 1: think you're gonna disagree with this one, but we'll talk

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Speaker 1: about it for a second. And I do want to

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Speaker 1: make it clear. When I picked it, it was at forty six.

335
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Speaker 1: It has moved to forty seven. It's been trending up.

336
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Speaker 1: So I locked it in when it was forty six,

337
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Speaker 1: and I feel better about that. I'll still take it

338
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Speaker 1: at forty seven because what the heck. And I will

339
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Speaker 1: go on a Thanksgiving game, even though some people, when

340
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Speaker 1: you're listening to this, it may be late. But you know,

341
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Speaker 1: we never get to do Thursday games on the show

342
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Speaker 1: because we usually record on Thursday. So I'm gonna do it.

343
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Speaker 1: And I'm going to take the Bills and the Cowboys

344
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Speaker 1: over forty seven. Again, as often happens, it was forty

345
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Speaker 1: six when I sort of looked at it and decided

346
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Speaker 1: to make the pick. But I'll stick with it at

347
00:13:35,679 --> 00:13:38,560
Speaker 1: forty seven. The Cowboys ranked sixth in the NFL in

348
00:13:38,640 --> 00:13:41,160
Speaker 1: scoring at nearly twenty seven points per game. They're even

349
00:13:41,160 --> 00:13:44,000
Speaker 1: better at home, averaging more than thirty points per game.

350
00:13:44,040 --> 00:13:48,040
Speaker 1: They're second in offensive DVOA. That's obviously including this past

351
00:13:48,040 --> 00:13:51,319
Speaker 1: weekend where they did absolutely nothing against the Patriots. It's

352
00:13:51,360 --> 00:13:52,840
Speaker 1: kind of like the Rams. I expect this to be

353
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Speaker 1: a little bit of a bounce back effort for Dallas,

354
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Speaker 1: and particularly offensively. And the Bills have a great defense,

355
00:13:57,640 --> 00:13:59,720
Speaker 1: the ranked third in the NFL, but certainly some of

356
00:13:59,760 --> 00:14:02,000
Speaker 1: that has been their schedule, which has been one of,

357
00:14:02,160 --> 00:14:05,400
Speaker 1: if not the single easiest schedule in the NFL. And

358
00:14:05,559 --> 00:14:07,520
Speaker 1: you've seen you know, they've got a great defense, but

359
00:14:07,640 --> 00:14:10,640
Speaker 1: they're much better pass defense. They're a bit vulnerable against

360
00:14:10,679 --> 00:14:13,160
Speaker 1: the run. And even though Ezekiel Elliott has not torn

361
00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:15,040
Speaker 1: it up of late, he's likely going to get going

362
00:14:15,320 --> 00:14:16,520
Speaker 1: in this game. And I think they're going to be

363
00:14:16,559 --> 00:14:18,480
Speaker 1: able to move the ball through the air too, give

364
00:14:18,520 --> 00:14:20,720
Speaker 1: him the play action. They've given up the fewest sacks

365
00:14:20,720 --> 00:14:23,480
Speaker 1: in the NFL, even with Amari Cooper matched up against

366
00:14:23,520 --> 00:14:25,360
Speaker 1: Tradavius Right. Cooper is coming off a game where he

367
00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:27,440
Speaker 1: was shut out. You know he's going to get at

368
00:14:27,520 --> 00:14:29,360
Speaker 1: least a little bit more there. And Michael Gallup is

369
00:14:29,360 --> 00:14:32,200
Speaker 1: playing well as well. And they're even getting Rendal Cobb involved.

370
00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:34,440
Speaker 1: So the Cowboys know this game they obviously play on

371
00:14:34,440 --> 00:14:37,000
Speaker 1: Thanksgiving every year. The quick turnaround, I think they'll be

372
00:14:37,040 --> 00:14:39,280
Speaker 1: ready to go, But I also expect Buffalo to be

373
00:14:39,320 --> 00:14:41,880
Speaker 1: able to score two. They're featuring Devin Singletary a bit more.

374
00:14:41,920 --> 00:14:44,960
Speaker 1: They just gashed a very strong Denver run defense. On

375
00:14:45,000 --> 00:14:48,040
Speaker 1: the ground, Josh Allen is really able to extend plays.

376
00:14:48,080 --> 00:14:51,160
Speaker 1: But in particular, you know, even though you've got, you know,

377
00:14:51,200 --> 00:14:52,680
Speaker 1: two teams that are going to run the ball a lot.

378
00:14:52,720 --> 00:14:55,040
Speaker 1: So that's usually good for the under because it takes

379
00:14:55,080 --> 00:14:57,440
Speaker 1: up you know, longer drives, takes up clock. But the

380
00:14:57,480 --> 00:15:01,960
Speaker 1: Cowboys generally are pretty they play fast, and really, when

381
00:15:01,960 --> 00:15:04,320
Speaker 1: I was looking at the Bills last week, they really

382
00:15:04,360 --> 00:15:07,640
Speaker 1: played up tempo. They went no huddle a ton. I

383
00:15:07,640 --> 00:15:09,360
Speaker 1: mean it was something like, you know, forty percent of

384
00:15:09,400 --> 00:15:12,000
Speaker 1: the time close to that. They ran seventy three plays

385
00:15:12,080 --> 00:15:14,160
Speaker 1: last week. I think that's what they're going to try

386
00:15:14,160 --> 00:15:16,280
Speaker 1: to come out and do. Their offense looked better against

387
00:15:16,280 --> 00:15:18,920
Speaker 1: a tough defense, so I expect them to also try

388
00:15:18,960 --> 00:15:21,920
Speaker 1: to play fast, which again to me, strikes me as

389
00:15:21,920 --> 00:15:24,280
Speaker 1: something that's going to lean towards the over. So you know,

390
00:15:24,440 --> 00:15:26,360
Speaker 1: in the end, the total strending up here, as I

391
00:15:26,360 --> 00:15:28,280
Speaker 1: mentioned it, I looked at it. It was forty five and

392
00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:29,680
Speaker 1: a half at one point. I got it when it

393
00:15:29,720 --> 00:15:31,720
Speaker 1: was forty six. It's now at forty seven on our

394
00:15:31,760 --> 00:15:33,960
Speaker 1: Consentuve ods, so I could see the under I think

395
00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:36,960
Speaker 1: the under looked quote unquote like the sharp play given

396
00:15:37,000 --> 00:15:39,000
Speaker 1: all the reasons I discussed, But I'm going to go

397
00:15:39,080 --> 00:15:42,520
Speaker 1: over here with forty seven for the Bills and the Cowboys. Yeah.

398
00:15:42,520 --> 00:15:44,360
Speaker 2: Actually, I think the sharp money agrees with you. This

399
00:15:44,440 --> 00:15:46,440
Speaker 2: was as low as forty five even in some spots

400
00:15:46,440 --> 00:15:48,560
Speaker 2: when it opened, and it is up to forty six

401
00:15:48,680 --> 00:15:50,760
Speaker 2: and forty seven as you mentioned the last couple of days.

402
00:15:51,360 --> 00:15:54,920
Speaker 2: The public isn't playing this yet. I think the professionals,

403
00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:57,160
Speaker 2: you know, probably expect these overs to be bumped up

404
00:15:57,200 --> 00:15:59,600
Speaker 2: because obviously the public likes overs and on Thursday, these

405
00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:02,800
Speaker 2: are very public bet games of three Thanksgiving games, so

406
00:16:02,840 --> 00:16:04,320
Speaker 2: they maybe are trying to get in early. There might

407
00:16:04,320 --> 00:16:05,520
Speaker 2: be a little bit of a buy back, you know,

408
00:16:05,560 --> 00:16:07,000
Speaker 2: if it hits forty seven and a half, they might

409
00:16:07,000 --> 00:16:09,080
Speaker 2: come back on the under, try to middle it, and

410
00:16:09,160 --> 00:16:11,520
Speaker 2: this line might drop back down by kickoff to forty

411
00:16:11,520 --> 00:16:13,920
Speaker 2: seven to forty six and a half. But I think

412
00:16:14,040 --> 00:16:16,800
Speaker 2: you have to be careful overreacting to Buffalo's defensive numbers.

413
00:16:16,840 --> 00:16:19,800
Speaker 2: They might allow just sixteen points a game, but they

414
00:16:19,800 --> 00:16:22,200
Speaker 2: haven't faced many offenses like Dallas. This is a good

415
00:16:22,280 --> 00:16:24,440
Speaker 2: cowboy offense. They can both run and throw the ball.

416
00:16:24,440 --> 00:16:26,720
Speaker 2: They average eight and a half yards of pass twenty

417
00:16:26,760 --> 00:16:28,880
Speaker 2: seven points a game. They're averaging over thirty points per

418
00:16:28,960 --> 00:16:31,680
Speaker 2: game at home this season, so I think it could

419
00:16:31,680 --> 00:16:33,560
Speaker 2: be a high scoring game. Actually it wouldn't shock me.

420
00:16:34,160 --> 00:16:36,360
Speaker 2: And yeah, both teams run the ball, but as you said,

421
00:16:36,360 --> 00:16:38,200
Speaker 2: they do it officially, they do a kind of uptempo.

422
00:16:38,760 --> 00:16:41,680
Speaker 2: I love the uptempo analogy. It's something I use a

423
00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:44,760
Speaker 2: tremendous amount in college and pro basketball and handicapping totals.

424
00:16:45,080 --> 00:16:46,840
Speaker 2: We don't talk about it as much in football, but

425
00:16:46,880 --> 00:16:49,200
Speaker 2: in the modern you no spread offenses. It is a

426
00:16:49,240 --> 00:16:52,640
Speaker 2: legitimate handicapping factor. And once again, this is kind of

427
00:16:52,640 --> 00:16:54,680
Speaker 2: like that San Francisco Baltimore total. You know that I

428
00:16:54,760 --> 00:16:57,200
Speaker 2: use the over. You've got one really good defensive team

429
00:16:57,240 --> 00:16:59,800
Speaker 2: like San Francisco Buffalo of a really good offensive team

430
00:17:00,000 --> 00:17:02,600
Speaker 2: Alish or Baltimore, and because of that, the odds makers

431
00:17:02,640 --> 00:17:04,280
Speaker 2: kind of have to put the total in the middle there.

432
00:17:04,960 --> 00:17:06,840
Speaker 2: One of those teams is going to dictate their preferred

433
00:17:06,880 --> 00:17:09,440
Speaker 2: style of play. I think it'll be Baltimore at home,

434
00:17:09,480 --> 00:17:11,479
Speaker 2: and you know you're betting it'll probably be Dallas at home.

435
00:17:11,520 --> 00:17:13,240
Speaker 2: And in general, the home team does dictate the way

436
00:17:13,240 --> 00:17:14,040
Speaker 2: they want the game to go.

437
00:17:14,240 --> 00:17:16,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, my one worry on it would be that the

438
00:17:16,280 --> 00:17:19,000
Speaker 1: Cowboys jump out to a real big lead. And then,

439
00:17:19,080 --> 00:17:20,639
Speaker 1: you know, I don't think the Bills are capable of

440
00:17:20,640 --> 00:17:22,679
Speaker 1: putting up points, which I look, it's a it's a

441
00:17:22,840 --> 00:17:25,720
Speaker 1: certainly something that's that's a factor. But in the end,

442
00:17:25,720 --> 00:17:28,800
Speaker 1: I really do expect as much as I don't, you know,

443
00:17:29,000 --> 00:17:31,520
Speaker 1: have quite as much faith in the Bills defense. I

444
00:17:31,560 --> 00:17:33,680
Speaker 1: like their offense, and I really do considering they're bringing

445
00:17:33,680 --> 00:17:36,639
Speaker 1: in Devin Singletary. I you know, John Brown's always been

446
00:17:36,640 --> 00:17:38,320
Speaker 1: one of my favorite players. It's great to watch him

447
00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:40,520
Speaker 1: succeed right now. And Josh Allen is able to when

448
00:17:40,520 --> 00:17:42,000
Speaker 1: you get pressure on him because of his legs, is

449
00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:43,920
Speaker 1: able to extend drive. So I think they're going to

450
00:17:43,960 --> 00:17:45,760
Speaker 1: play fast. I think there's gonna be a lot of points,

451
00:17:45,760 --> 00:17:47,720
Speaker 1: so I'll take the over. Let's move on to your

452
00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:48,880
Speaker 1: third pick here. What do you got?

453
00:17:49,000 --> 00:17:50,600
Speaker 2: You're gonna talk about it more of an ugly team

454
00:17:50,600 --> 00:17:52,080
Speaker 2: here for the third pick, go back to a side

455
00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:54,000
Speaker 2: selection and this is one of the Lake kickoffs at

456
00:17:54,000 --> 00:17:56,920
Speaker 2: four to twenty five Eastern on Sunday afternoon, going to

457
00:17:56,960 --> 00:17:59,600
Speaker 2: look at the Oakland Raiders. And this is another game

458
00:17:59,640 --> 00:18:01,399
Speaker 2: in which the lines moved a bit from what the

459
00:18:01,400 --> 00:18:03,959
Speaker 2: look ahead number was. I saw it as low as

460
00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:06,440
Speaker 2: eight and a half in some spots, but now as

461
00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:08,880
Speaker 2: of Wednesday afternoon, we're looking at a solid plus ten

462
00:18:09,080 --> 00:18:11,720
Speaker 2: across the board. Ten another very key number about four

463
00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:13,360
Speaker 2: to five percent of the time, just like seven, it's

464
00:18:13,359 --> 00:18:15,439
Speaker 2: going to land on ten. So I do think at

465
00:18:15,480 --> 00:18:17,119
Speaker 2: ten or more here we're starting to get some value

466
00:18:17,119 --> 00:18:19,680
Speaker 2: with the Oakland Raiders. This is a rematch from earlier

467
00:18:19,760 --> 00:18:22,320
Speaker 2: this season. I always like to take good sized big

468
00:18:22,359 --> 00:18:26,000
Speaker 2: divisional dogs in rematches, especially if they've lost. They're coming

469
00:18:26,000 --> 00:18:28,160
Speaker 2: off a terrible show in last week against the Jets.

470
00:18:28,200 --> 00:18:29,840
Speaker 2: By the way, I had a best bet on the

471
00:18:29,880 --> 00:18:32,680
Speaker 2: New York Jets as the home dog against the Raiders

472
00:18:32,720 --> 00:18:34,439
Speaker 2: from my clients, so that game did not surprise me.

473
00:18:34,480 --> 00:18:36,480
Speaker 2: Now the thirty four to three win did surprise me.

474
00:18:36,920 --> 00:18:39,879
Speaker 2: That was a pleasant surprise. But I still think because

475
00:18:39,880 --> 00:18:42,680
Speaker 2: of that, this line's been inflated. Now. Also, Kansas City

476
00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:44,720
Speaker 2: starting to get a little healthier, but they've alternated wins

477
00:18:44,800 --> 00:18:47,320
Speaker 2: or losses going all the way back to early October.

478
00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:49,320
Speaker 2: And this is still a team that's just three and

479
00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:52,040
Speaker 2: four straight up their last seven games, both against the

480
00:18:52,080 --> 00:18:54,960
Speaker 2: spread and outright, so they have not been crushing it

481
00:18:55,200 --> 00:18:57,399
Speaker 2: like they did last year. I just think this is

482
00:18:57,400 --> 00:19:00,400
Speaker 2: an inflated line here. You look at the Oakland They're

483
00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:02,560
Speaker 2: capable of moving the ball. You know, they put up

484
00:19:02,560 --> 00:19:05,080
Speaker 2: twenty four points straight against Chicago Green Bay in Houston,

485
00:19:05,119 --> 00:19:06,920
Speaker 2: then they put up thirty one and twenty six against

486
00:19:06,920 --> 00:19:09,240
Speaker 2: Detroit and the Chargers, and then the last two weeks

487
00:19:09,240 --> 00:19:11,680
Speaker 2: only seventeen and three all of a sudden. I think

488
00:19:11,680 --> 00:19:13,200
Speaker 2: this is a little bit of an overreaction by the

489
00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:15,560
Speaker 2: Betty market, and I think Oakland is more likely to

490
00:19:15,600 --> 00:19:18,120
Speaker 2: return to that twenty twenty five point average this week

491
00:19:18,119 --> 00:19:19,879
Speaker 2: against the mediocre Kansas City defense.

492
00:19:20,160 --> 00:19:22,199
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm not sure that I would pick it, but

493
00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:25,080
Speaker 1: I don't disagree with the side that you're on. Really,

494
00:19:25,119 --> 00:19:26,840
Speaker 1: what I look at here and I agreed with the

495
00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:29,720
Speaker 1: Jets against the Raiders. Look, the Raiders need to be

496
00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:31,840
Speaker 1: able to run the ball with Jacobs in order to

497
00:19:32,119 --> 00:19:34,760
Speaker 1: really establish their identity and put up points. They have

498
00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:37,200
Speaker 1: lost Hunter ren for of course, but look, we've seen

499
00:19:37,240 --> 00:19:39,680
Speaker 1: it in the past before mahomes injury. You know, when

500
00:19:39,680 --> 00:19:42,320
Speaker 1: you were able to slow down the Chiefs offense. How

501
00:19:42,320 --> 00:19:44,040
Speaker 1: did they do it? You know that game against the Colts.

502
00:19:44,040 --> 00:19:46,600
Speaker 1: I think maybe the game against Texans. They ran the ball,

503
00:19:46,720 --> 00:19:49,960
Speaker 1: they controlled the game, They kept Mahomes off the field.

504
00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:52,000
Speaker 1: And Mahomes is not, you know, looking quite as good

505
00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:54,080
Speaker 1: as he did before the injury for obvious reasons. But

506
00:19:54,359 --> 00:19:56,560
Speaker 1: you know, this game unlike the Jets game, because the

507
00:19:56,600 --> 00:19:59,080
Speaker 1: Jets were able to stop the run. They stopped really

508
00:19:59,240 --> 00:20:01,560
Speaker 1: what the Raiders did. I feel like in this game,

509
00:20:01,560 --> 00:20:04,240
Speaker 1: the Chiefs cannot stop the run, and that is where

510
00:20:04,400 --> 00:20:07,040
Speaker 1: the Raiders are going to be able to not only

511
00:20:07,080 --> 00:20:09,920
Speaker 1: move the ball, but keep Mahomes off the field as

512
00:20:09,960 --> 00:20:12,240
Speaker 1: much as possible and be able to keep the game close.

513
00:20:12,280 --> 00:20:15,320
Speaker 1: So look, betting against Patrick Mahomes is something that you know,

514
00:20:15,480 --> 00:20:18,760
Speaker 1: I've struggled to do, you know, at least in his prime,

515
00:20:18,800 --> 00:20:21,200
Speaker 1: because it was too scary frankly when I was involved

516
00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:23,040
Speaker 1: in it. But overall, so I don't think I'm going

517
00:20:23,080 --> 00:20:24,879
Speaker 1: to get in on it. But I do agree that

518
00:20:24,960 --> 00:20:26,480
Speaker 1: if I were to pick a side, it would be

519
00:20:26,480 --> 00:20:28,960
Speaker 1: the Raiders getting ten for basically all the reasons you described,

520
00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:30,720
Speaker 1: So I do like the pick.

521
00:20:30,840 --> 00:20:32,080
Speaker 2: Well, one thing I'll point out to you know, you

522
00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:33,639
Speaker 2: mentioned the importance of the Raiders running the ball, and

523
00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:35,920
Speaker 2: I ever got to mention Kansas City's run defense. Given

524
00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:38,760
Speaker 2: a five point one yards per carry this year, it's

525
00:20:38,760 --> 00:20:41,680
Speaker 2: one of the weaker yards per carey defenses in the NFL.

526
00:20:41,840 --> 00:20:43,480
Speaker 2: So I do think Oakland will have some success on

527
00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:43,800
Speaker 2: the ground.

528
00:20:43,920 --> 00:20:45,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, one hundred percent. And really, when you're able to

529
00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:48,200
Speaker 1: do that, that's kind of how you keep the game close.

530
00:20:48,480 --> 00:20:51,200
Speaker 1: And again, ten is a huge number. You know, anytime

531
00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:52,919
Speaker 1: you get to double digits, you got to look closely

532
00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:55,080
Speaker 1: at the team getting the points and it's a key number,

533
00:20:55,119 --> 00:20:57,240
Speaker 1: as you mentioned, so certainly, at the very least the

534
00:20:57,320 --> 00:20:59,760
Speaker 1: backdoor covers is always in play. I'll go to my

535
00:20:59,800 --> 00:21:01,720
Speaker 1: final pick and it's going to go back to an

536
00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:04,280
Speaker 1: over under, and that's the Jets and the Bengals over

537
00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:07,440
Speaker 1: forty one and a half. I think you're gonna probably

538
00:21:07,520 --> 00:21:09,840
Speaker 1: see this line maybe crew up to forty two forty

539
00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:11,840
Speaker 1: two and a half with Andy Dalton back in, and

540
00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:13,680
Speaker 1: I think there's a good reason for it. Look, the

541
00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:16,640
Speaker 1: Jets offense right now is clicking. It's been soft matchups,

542
00:21:16,640 --> 00:21:19,600
Speaker 1: but they've scored exactly thirty four points in each of

543
00:21:19,640 --> 00:21:22,639
Speaker 1: their last three games. That's against the Giants, Redskins, and Raiders,

544
00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:26,560
Speaker 1: soft matchups. But they've got another one here against the Bengals.

545
00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:28,720
Speaker 1: In addition the simple fact that Sam Darnold is growing

546
00:21:28,760 --> 00:21:32,320
Speaker 1: as a quarterback, There's just some talented playmakers and it's

547
00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:35,679
Speaker 1: really that none of those teams get pressure consistently on

548
00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:38,159
Speaker 1: the quarterback. That's the key for Donald, who stands behind

549
00:21:38,200 --> 00:21:41,560
Speaker 1: a terrible offensive line and so long as he isn't

550
00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:44,400
Speaker 1: consistently dealing with defenders in the space, he can make

551
00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:47,760
Speaker 1: plays and put up points. And the Bengals have sixteen

552
00:21:47,880 --> 00:21:50,199
Speaker 1: sacks on the season. That's second worst in the NFL.

553
00:21:50,240 --> 00:21:52,720
Speaker 1: They're head of only the Dolphins. They're third worst in

554
00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:56,000
Speaker 1: defensive DVOA. There's absolutely no reason why the Jets should

555
00:21:56,040 --> 00:21:58,440
Speaker 1: struggle to put up points here. And look, the Jets

556
00:21:58,480 --> 00:22:01,760
Speaker 1: are solid upfront. Defensive they have Jamal Adams, one of

557
00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:04,840
Speaker 1: the best safeties in the game. Since they've switched at cornerback,

558
00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:07,600
Speaker 1: they've been playing better. Brian Poole has had actually a

559
00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:09,960
Speaker 1: nice season out of the slot and their fifth in

560
00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:15,919
Speaker 1: defensive DVOA. But the Bengals are at least borderline competent offensively.

561
00:22:16,040 --> 00:22:18,680
Speaker 1: So long as Andy Dalton is under center, he knows

562
00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:21,320
Speaker 1: how to utilize Tyler Boyd. Joe Mixon has been getting

563
00:22:21,359 --> 00:22:24,120
Speaker 1: plenty of work lately, which he really wasn't getting early.

564
00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:26,679
Speaker 1: On forty Glenn came back, which helps their offensive line.

565
00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:29,520
Speaker 1: I haven't seen anything on the practice reports with aj Green,

566
00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:31,760
Speaker 1: but you know, you got to get this feeling like Green.

567
00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:34,479
Speaker 1: I'm not coming back with Ryan Finley, but all right,

568
00:22:34,520 --> 00:22:36,439
Speaker 1: you throw Dalton back there, maybe he'll try to play.

569
00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:38,960
Speaker 1: Even if he doesn't, though, I think that the Bengals

570
00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:40,639
Speaker 1: are going to be able to put up at least

571
00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:42,639
Speaker 1: some points right now, I don't think the Jets defense

572
00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:44,800
Speaker 1: is quite as good as it has looked lately. Not

573
00:22:44,840 --> 00:22:46,840
Speaker 1: a crazy amount of points, but certainly some points. And

574
00:22:46,840 --> 00:22:48,600
Speaker 1: with the Jets being able to put up points, I

575
00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:50,480
Speaker 1: feel comfortable here that they're going to shoot over forty

576
00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:53,120
Speaker 1: one a half, which again is a fairly low over under.

577
00:22:53,320 --> 00:22:54,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's very low. I was going to say it's

578
00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:56,679
Speaker 2: a very low over under for the modern NFL on

579
00:22:56,800 --> 00:22:59,360
Speaker 2: forty one, by the way, a very key number with totals,

580
00:22:59,800 --> 00:23:01,880
Speaker 2: and I do see several spots out there that still

581
00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:03,919
Speaker 2: have forty one. So I think you can legitimately say

582
00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:06,280
Speaker 2: you could play over forty one in this game about

583
00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:07,720
Speaker 2: three to four percent of the time it's going to

584
00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:09,960
Speaker 2: land on forty one points. You know, twenty four to seventeen,

585
00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:12,080
Speaker 2: thirty one, ten, twenty one, twenty, There's a lot of

586
00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:14,919
Speaker 2: combinations that get you there. So definitely shop around get

587
00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:16,560
Speaker 2: that over forty one in this one. If you're looking

588
00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:18,440
Speaker 2: at the over I do think forty one and a

589
00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:20,639
Speaker 2: half forty two by Sundays be what the number is,

590
00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:23,199
Speaker 2: So I'd play it sooner than later. And yeah, I

591
00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:25,240
Speaker 2: kind of wait for the Bengals to have a breakout game.

592
00:23:25,280 --> 00:23:27,640
Speaker 2: You know, they've been so terrible this year. Everyone thought

593
00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:29,800
Speaker 2: the Dolphins were the worst team in the modern NFL history,

594
00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:31,880
Speaker 2: and they've already won two games. You know, the Redskins

595
00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:33,840
Speaker 2: looked like they were the worst team. They won their

596
00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:35,760
Speaker 2: second game last week. The Jets were actually in the

597
00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:38,280
Speaker 2: playoff list now if you look at teams in the hunt,

598
00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:41,560
Speaker 2: the Jets are actually listed now despite being just four

599
00:23:41,600 --> 00:23:44,160
Speaker 2: and seven. But they are a better team healthy, and

600
00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:46,280
Speaker 2: that's one of the reasons I liked the Jets last week.

601
00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:48,680
Speaker 2: Is the best bet for my clients against Oakland was

602
00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:50,119
Speaker 2: I do feel like they're flying a bit under the

603
00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:52,000
Speaker 2: radar now that Darnold is healthy and able to play

604
00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:55,120
Speaker 2: his level. Thirty four points three straight games. You mentioned

605
00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:57,440
Speaker 2: the three week opponents they've played. This is the weakest yet,

606
00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:00,280
Speaker 2: so I see no reason why it wouldn't continue. And

607
00:24:00,320 --> 00:24:02,040
Speaker 2: I think the key here is of Cincinnati can get

608
00:24:02,040 --> 00:24:04,159
Speaker 2: the points. We know they allow points. They give up

609
00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:06,280
Speaker 2: thirty two a game at home. The problem is they

610
00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:08,960
Speaker 2: only average sixteen at home, only fourteen and a half overall.

611
00:24:09,480 --> 00:24:11,719
Speaker 2: But I'm not stilling this Jets defense. They give up

612
00:24:11,720 --> 00:24:14,000
Speaker 2: over twenty six and a half away. Yeah, it's a

613
00:24:14,040 --> 00:24:16,200
Speaker 2: low total forty one. He almost automatically have to look

614
00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:17,359
Speaker 2: at the over and I think he brought up some

615
00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:18,439
Speaker 2: very good reasons to do so.

616
00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:21,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I'm a Jets fan. Full disclosure, I'm from Queens,

617
00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:25,720
Speaker 1: so I grew up, unfortunately rooting for them and still do.

618
00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:28,399
Speaker 1: And yeah, I agree. Look, they've been playing very well,

619
00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:30,840
Speaker 1: but I'm still not trusting the defense at this point.

620
00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:32,879
Speaker 1: And again, look, the Bengals are terrible. They are a

621
00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:36,159
Speaker 1: terrible football team. They've got probably two games left that

622
00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:38,000
Speaker 1: they can win. They don't want to go oh in sixteen.

623
00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:39,800
Speaker 1: They do have a game against Miami, so you know,

624
00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:42,040
Speaker 1: I'll put that out there. They can definitely win that game.

625
00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:44,359
Speaker 1: But they've got to be going for it at this

626
00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:46,679
Speaker 1: point because otherwise there's really no reason to turn back

627
00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:49,800
Speaker 1: to Andy Dalton because he's not the quarterback in the future.

628
00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:52,400
Speaker 1: I'm sure they're going to be drafting a quarterback this year.

629
00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:54,080
Speaker 1: So I think they want this win. I think they're

630
00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:55,720
Speaker 1: going to do whatever they can to get it, which

631
00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:59,480
Speaker 1: I think means putting up points. All right, let's recap here, Steve.

632
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:01,240
Speaker 1: You've got the hacker's lank six and a half to

633
00:25:01,280 --> 00:25:04,400
Speaker 1: the Giants, the forty nine Ers and Ravens over forty seven,

634
00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:06,640
Speaker 1: and the Raiders getting ten from the Chiefs. I'll take

635
00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:08,960
Speaker 1: the Rams lank three to the Cardinals, the Bills and

636
00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:12,200
Speaker 1: Cowboys over forty seven now, and the Jets and the

637
00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:15,960
Speaker 1: Bengals over forty one and a half. I believe, although, yeah,

638
00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:17,800
Speaker 1: forty one and a half. I'm sorry. All right. Before

639
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:19,600
Speaker 1: we move on, let's talk about bet MGM and the

640
00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:22,199
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641
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642
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643
00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:30,520
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644
00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:33,880
Speaker 1: last name, Harris. You'll basically have your choice of free

645
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Speaker 1: money one of three different ways with your first bet.

646
00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:39,560
Speaker 1: If you want to do it on Thanksgiving, that's great place.

647
00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:42,880
Speaker 1: A one dollar money line bet on any Thanksgiving game

648
00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:46,359
Speaker 1: anyone and if any team not the team in your game,

649
00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:50,040
Speaker 1: any team on Thanksgiving scores a touchdown, you win two

650
00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:52,840
Speaker 1: hundred dollars in free bets. You want to wait until

651
00:25:52,840 --> 00:25:55,000
Speaker 1: the Sunday games, it's great place. A one dollar money

652
00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:58,160
Speaker 1: line bet on any Sunday game and win two hundred

653
00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:02,560
Speaker 1: and fifty in free bets any team on Sunday scores

654
00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:05,040
Speaker 1: a touchdown. Are you a procrastinator you want to wait

655
00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:07,800
Speaker 1: until Monday? I don't condone that, but bet MGM does

656
00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:10,720
Speaker 1: not care. Place your first bet of one dollar on

657
00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:13,560
Speaker 1: the money line on Monday and win one hundred dollars

658
00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:17,680
Speaker 1: in free bets if Russell Wilson completes even a single

659
00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:21,480
Speaker 1: pass against the Vikings. There is no plausible scenario where

660
00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:24,520
Speaker 1: any of these bets lose none. It is pure folly

661
00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:27,320
Speaker 1: and if you sign up for account at betmgm, you

662
00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:29,840
Speaker 1: are going to see that they offer crazy boosted bets

663
00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:32,439
Speaker 1: like this all the time. They've got a ton of

664
00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:34,720
Speaker 1: amazing other benefits as well, like being able to track

665
00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:37,359
Speaker 1: your bet in real time, or taking an early cash

666
00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:40,080
Speaker 1: out to lock in winnings or cut losses. So again,

667
00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 1: just download the bet mgm Sports apps, sign up for

668
00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:45,119
Speaker 1: an account, use our promo code Harris to get some

669
00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:49,080
Speaker 1: essentially free money either on Thanksgiving or this weekend. These

670
00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:50,879
Speaker 1: winnings are paid in free bets and you must be

671
00:26:50,920 --> 00:26:53,440
Speaker 1: twenty one years or older. And although you can sign

672
00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:55,560
Speaker 1: up an easily deposit money anywhere, you must be in

673
00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:57,920
Speaker 1: the state of New Jersey to place a sports bet,

674
00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:01,080
Speaker 1: and certain restrictions apply at MGM dot com for the

675
00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:03,320
Speaker 1: full list of terms and conditions. And if you've got

676
00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:06,480
Speaker 1: a gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. All right, Steve,

677
00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:09,080
Speaker 1: let's move on to it's a trap where we list

678
00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:11,720
Speaker 1: the line we are avoiding this weekend. What do you have?

679
00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:13,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know we talked about this game. I used

680
00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:15,280
Speaker 2: the over, but I'm going to use the side. I

681
00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:17,200
Speaker 2: kind of referenced this earlier that I know it was

682
00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:20,000
Speaker 2: a tough one, and that's the Ravens forty nine Ers side.

683
00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:22,439
Speaker 2: Here I can make an argument for both teams. I

684
00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:23,960
Speaker 2: can also tell you why he probably want to stay

685
00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:27,440
Speaker 2: away from both teams. First of all, as I've referenced earlier,

686
00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:29,320
Speaker 2: I was surprised to see the line six. I mean,

687
00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:31,440
Speaker 2: San Francisco has been as good as anybody in the NFL.

688
00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:34,080
Speaker 2: They just blew out a good Packers team on Sunday

689
00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:37,639
Speaker 2: night primetime football. Normally you lose line value because of that.

690
00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:39,639
Speaker 2: But then the Ravens did them one better and they

691
00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:41,960
Speaker 2: blew out the Rams on Monday night, which is more recent,

692
00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:45,000
Speaker 2: and then everybody's memory, the betting public saw what they

693
00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:47,920
Speaker 2: did to the Patriots a few weeks ago. So now

694
00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:50,560
Speaker 2: you've got the Ravens at minus sixth. It's like Ohio

695
00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:52,880
Speaker 2: State and college football. You're not going to get any

696
00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:55,440
Speaker 2: value with Baltimore going forward until they lose at some point.

697
00:27:55,640 --> 00:27:57,440
Speaker 2: By the way, Ohio State's failed to cover each of

698
00:27:57,440 --> 00:28:00,840
Speaker 2: the last two weeks despite winning. Still who that doesn't

699
00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:02,600
Speaker 2: mean you jumped in on the forty nine Ers either.

700
00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:04,360
Speaker 2: This is a team that's coming off that huge win.

701
00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:07,520
Speaker 2: Now I'll have to travel cross country and have the

702
00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:09,800
Speaker 2: disadvantage of playing a one o'clock Eastern, which is a

703
00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:13,840
Speaker 2: ten am Pacific kickoff on their body clocks. And also,

704
00:28:13,840 --> 00:28:15,280
Speaker 2: as I referenced, one of the reasons I like the

705
00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:17,840
Speaker 2: over and I'm staying away from the side is because

706
00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:19,639
Speaker 2: the forty nine Ers defense has been great this year,

707
00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:21,720
Speaker 2: but that's against the past. They're actually a below average

708
00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:25,000
Speaker 2: rush defense statistically four point seven yards per rush allowed,

709
00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:27,240
Speaker 2: and now they're facing a mobile quarterback like they have

710
00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:30,080
Speaker 2: not seen all season. I'd be very careful with this side.

711
00:28:30,880 --> 00:28:32,679
Speaker 2: I think it's a bad matchup for San Francisco, but

712
00:28:32,680 --> 00:28:34,320
Speaker 2: I think there's no value right now with Baltimore in

713
00:28:34,320 --> 00:28:34,960
Speaker 2: the near future.

714
00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:37,600
Speaker 1: So usually what we do, if you've listened to the show,

715
00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:41,760
Speaker 1: is I have our guests send me their picks in advance,

716
00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:43,680
Speaker 1: so I could just make sure I don't pick the

717
00:28:43,720 --> 00:28:46,600
Speaker 1: same game. And you know, it's Thanksgivings coming up. Steve

718
00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:48,840
Speaker 1: and I weren't able to connect that closely about this,

719
00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:53,560
Speaker 1: so that was going to be my line to avoid this. Yeah, no, great,

720
00:28:53,600 --> 00:28:55,440
Speaker 1: bos think a lot. You want to do it, all right,

721
00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:57,320
Speaker 1: I'll do it. I'll throw it out very quickly for

722
00:28:57,440 --> 00:28:59,520
Speaker 1: you too. But I could not agree with you more.

723
00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:01,960
Speaker 1: This is just not a line I'm going anywhere near.

724
00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:04,200
Speaker 1: I'm shocked it's six, by the way. I mean, as

725
00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:07,840
Speaker 1: much as I six just strikes me as crazy inflated.

726
00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:10,920
Speaker 1: But I can't bring myself to bet against Lamar Jackson

727
00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:13,840
Speaker 1: at this point. But it's certainly something that's crazy. But

728
00:29:13,960 --> 00:29:17,040
Speaker 1: I like that you took it. It was gonna be

729
00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:19,640
Speaker 1: mine too. I think I'll pivot a little bit and

730
00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:21,560
Speaker 1: the game that I'm avoiding because again I've looked at

731
00:29:21,600 --> 00:29:24,360
Speaker 1: this game and I you know, originally I wanted to

732
00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:26,360
Speaker 1: take it, but I couldn't get there. And that's the

733
00:29:26,440 --> 00:29:30,720
Speaker 1: Patriots laying three to the Texans in Houston. Look this game,

734
00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:34,280
Speaker 1: when you look at the Patriots, they're just their defense

735
00:29:34,360 --> 00:29:37,800
Speaker 1: is great, but their offense it's really not working right now.

736
00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:39,680
Speaker 1: I understand that the game against Dallas was in the

737
00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:42,880
Speaker 1: terrible weather, but it's really not going anywhere. Brady is

738
00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:46,080
Speaker 1: not playing particularly well. They struggle to run the ball,

739
00:29:46,120 --> 00:29:49,200
Speaker 1: as I have all season long, since James Devlin went out.

740
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:51,280
Speaker 1: They're really just not able to put up a ton

741
00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:52,560
Speaker 1: of points. I don't you know, Brady was on the

742
00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:54,520
Speaker 1: injury report with an elbow injury. That's you know, he

743
00:29:54,920 --> 00:29:56,360
Speaker 1: used to always be on the injury report, but I

744
00:29:56,400 --> 00:29:58,240
Speaker 1: hadn't heard of that before. So he may be a

745
00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:00,520
Speaker 1: little banged up. He's been getting hit quite a bit,

746
00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:02,760
Speaker 1: you know. And the Texans right now, you know, look

747
00:30:02,880 --> 00:30:06,160
Speaker 1: they're off the many bye, Will Fuller is healthy. You know,

748
00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:09,160
Speaker 1: they're playing overall. They came off the big win pretty well.

749
00:30:09,200 --> 00:30:12,280
Speaker 1: If there's one thing that the Patriots defense kind of

750
00:30:12,320 --> 00:30:14,640
Speaker 1: struggles with a little bit, it's mobile quarterbacks. You saw

751
00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:17,800
Speaker 1: against Lamar Jackson. Although that's not really something that you

752
00:30:17,840 --> 00:30:21,560
Speaker 1: can hold against any defense, frankly, but because they play

753
00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:23,840
Speaker 1: so much, man, you know, their cornerbacks have their backs

754
00:30:23,840 --> 00:30:26,800
Speaker 1: turned to it so the mobile quarterbacks like Watson are

755
00:30:26,840 --> 00:30:29,360
Speaker 1: able to get out. But in the end, the coaching

756
00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:31,760
Speaker 1: difference in the two teams. I mean, Bill O'Brien is

757
00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:35,320
Speaker 1: just not somebody that I can feel comfortable backing, particularly

758
00:30:35,640 --> 00:30:38,479
Speaker 1: against Bill Belichick. So at this game on Sunday Night Football,

759
00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:41,040
Speaker 1: the crowd's going to be crazy. It's just something where

760
00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:43,160
Speaker 1: I kind of feel like, if I'm forced to pick

761
00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:45,680
Speaker 1: a side, I see the value in the Texans personally,

762
00:30:45,960 --> 00:30:47,840
Speaker 1: but it's not something where I'm going to be willing

763
00:30:48,160 --> 00:30:50,200
Speaker 1: to go ahead and bet against Bill Belichick. So I'm

764
00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:52,440
Speaker 1: avoiding the Patriots laying three to the Texans. I wanted

765
00:30:52,480 --> 00:30:53,479
Speaker 1: your thoughts on that line.

766
00:30:53,640 --> 00:30:56,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's going to be critical where this line settles

767
00:30:56,280 --> 00:30:58,760
Speaker 2: because as of Wednesday right now, there's a lot of

768
00:30:58,840 --> 00:31:01,640
Speaker 2: threes minus one twin but I see several spots also

769
00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:04,400
Speaker 2: that have minus three and a half, even on the Patriots.

770
00:31:04,440 --> 00:31:06,720
Speaker 2: And as we talked about earlier in the show, you know,

771
00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:08,920
Speaker 2: NFL favorites went about nine to ten percent of the

772
00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:12,000
Speaker 2: time by exactly three points, so big difference. You know,

773
00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:14,400
Speaker 2: if you like, if you like New England, you want

774
00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:16,400
Speaker 2: to play three minus one twenty. If you like Houston,

775
00:31:16,440 --> 00:31:17,960
Speaker 2: you play plus three and a half even it is

776
00:31:18,040 --> 00:31:19,960
Speaker 2: worth the twenty cent gap. In fact, it's worth about

777
00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:22,920
Speaker 2: twenty five to thirty cents. Historically, it's the one time

778
00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:25,680
Speaker 2: it's worth paying a little extra. And if you've noticed,

779
00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:27,560
Speaker 2: most sports books know this, and they make you charge.

780
00:31:27,600 --> 00:31:29,880
Speaker 2: They charge you at least like thirty cents because buying

781
00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:32,000
Speaker 2: points in general is a sucker play you don't normally

782
00:31:32,000 --> 00:31:33,160
Speaker 2: want to do. They don't want to move the line

783
00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:35,280
Speaker 2: a half a point in lay minus one twenty instead

784
00:31:35,280 --> 00:31:37,760
Speaker 2: of minus one ten. But in this situation, you are

785
00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:39,920
Speaker 2: better off laying a little extra if it's only a

786
00:31:39,920 --> 00:31:42,479
Speaker 2: twenty cent gap. So yeah, we'll see where this line settles.

787
00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:44,080
Speaker 2: And I think that reason alone, you know, Dan has

788
00:31:44,120 --> 00:31:45,760
Speaker 2: reason to stay away from this game at least right

789
00:31:45,760 --> 00:31:46,760
Speaker 2: now until Sunday night.

790
00:31:46,840 --> 00:31:49,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's a great point. And again, look,

791
00:31:49,080 --> 00:31:52,360
Speaker 1: I mentioned it most times we record. But again we're

792
00:31:52,440 --> 00:31:55,600
Speaker 1: using the consensus odds, okay, and that's probably I believe,

793
00:31:55,640 --> 00:31:57,760
Speaker 1: eight sports books that we've got going on. But if

794
00:31:57,760 --> 00:32:00,160
Speaker 1: you look at it, the consensus odds are minus three

795
00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:03,240
Speaker 1: and laying one o five right here. But if you

796
00:32:03,280 --> 00:32:05,640
Speaker 1: look at the different sports books, there's a handful of

797
00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:08,440
Speaker 1: three and a half. So it really depends on where

798
00:32:08,440 --> 00:32:10,680
Speaker 1: you're able to get in. But yeah, it's just not

799
00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:12,480
Speaker 1: ane I you'll come to with. If it's three and

800
00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:14,400
Speaker 1: a half, I'll bite the bullet and take the Texans.

801
00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:16,640
Speaker 1: But at three it's not something that I want to go. Okay,

802
00:32:16,720 --> 00:32:19,960
Speaker 1: you and I are both avoiding the Ravens lank six

803
00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:22,320
Speaker 1: to the forty nine ers, and I'm going to avoid

804
00:32:22,320 --> 00:32:25,400
Speaker 1: the Patriots laying three to the Texans. So before we

805
00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:27,280
Speaker 1: get to our final segment, I want to mind everyone

806
00:32:27,280 --> 00:32:31,160
Speaker 1: about our giveaway. It's assigned Odell Beckham Junior Cleveland Brown's helmet.

807
00:32:31,440 --> 00:32:33,760
Speaker 1: The contest is running through November thirty, so you have

808
00:32:33,800 --> 00:32:35,600
Speaker 1: a couple more days to get in. You can go

809
00:32:35,600 --> 00:32:38,440
Speaker 1: to betting pros dot com slash contest for more details,

810
00:32:38,600 --> 00:32:40,360
Speaker 1: but to enter, just leave a review for the show

811
00:32:40,360 --> 00:32:43,120
Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher and send a screenshot of

812
00:32:43,120 --> 00:32:46,040
Speaker 1: that review to contest at bettingpros dot com. Now, the

813
00:32:46,080 --> 00:32:48,800
Speaker 1: Beckham helmet and all of our signed helmets come from

814
00:32:48,840 --> 00:32:51,640
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815
00:32:51,920 --> 00:32:54,320
Speaker 1: with thousands of auctions every day, and when you go there,

816
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817
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818
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Speaker 1: dot com. That's p r I s t I n

819
00:33:05,000 --> 00:33:07,680
Speaker 1: auction dot com. All right, Steve. We also did not

820
00:33:07,760 --> 00:33:11,840
Speaker 1: get a chance to talk about our top props, so legitimately,

821
00:33:11,840 --> 00:33:13,760
Speaker 1: if you take mine, I'm just gonna jump on it

822
00:33:13,800 --> 00:33:15,280
Speaker 1: with you. So go ahead, and and what do you

823
00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:15,680
Speaker 1: got here?

824
00:33:15,960 --> 00:33:17,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, well there's a couple I'm looking at, and it's

825
00:33:17,640 --> 00:33:19,120
Speaker 2: by the way, you know, Wednesday. Of course, it's very

826
00:33:19,160 --> 00:33:21,000
Speaker 2: hard to find the numbers for the Sunday games. All

827
00:33:21,040 --> 00:33:23,560
Speaker 2: the Thursday props are out now, but really haven't seen

828
00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:25,840
Speaker 2: any of the major books with the numbers up for Sunday.

829
00:33:26,120 --> 00:33:27,400
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna be general and you can kind of

830
00:33:27,440 --> 00:33:28,920
Speaker 2: throw in the exact number when you see it as

831
00:33:28,920 --> 00:33:31,400
Speaker 2: a consensus. The one I'm gonna stay away from, by

832
00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:34,440
Speaker 2: the way, is, you know, obviously, uh Lamar Jackson rushing

833
00:33:34,480 --> 00:33:36,800
Speaker 2: yards over is very tempting for me because San Francisco's

834
00:33:36,880 --> 00:33:40,040
Speaker 2: run defense has been below average, as I've referenced several times,

835
00:33:40,080 --> 00:33:42,720
Speaker 2: and also the fact they haven't seen a quarterback like that.

836
00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:45,160
Speaker 2: But I'm staying away from Baltimore in general, because they're

837
00:33:45,160 --> 00:33:47,320
Speaker 2: so public right now, I'd like to normally look for

838
00:33:47,440 --> 00:33:50,520
Speaker 2: unders with props because if a player gets injured, I'm

839
00:33:50,520 --> 00:33:52,560
Speaker 2: not wishing an injury, but if a player gets injured,

840
00:33:52,600 --> 00:33:54,440
Speaker 2: you know, obviously that helps the under and that's something

841
00:33:54,480 --> 00:33:57,760
Speaker 2: that just could be an additional bonus for you. Plus

842
00:33:57,800 --> 00:34:00,440
Speaker 2: the public normally plays the over. With that said, I'm

843
00:34:00,440 --> 00:34:02,240
Speaker 2: going to use an over, and I like Aaron Rodgers

844
00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:05,240
Speaker 2: total passing yards over the total. It goes hand in

845
00:34:05,280 --> 00:34:06,880
Speaker 2: hand with the side selection I used at the top

846
00:34:06,920 --> 00:34:09,239
Speaker 2: of the show. I think Green Bay is flying a

847
00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:11,200
Speaker 2: little bit under the radar right now after that terrible

848
00:34:11,200 --> 00:34:14,000
Speaker 2: performance on Sunday night offensively when they only put up

849
00:34:14,040 --> 00:34:16,399
Speaker 2: eight points and overall as a team they only threw

850
00:34:16,400 --> 00:34:18,920
Speaker 2: the ball for eighty one passing yards. But as I've

851
00:34:18,960 --> 00:34:21,360
Speaker 2: said several times, San Francisco's pass defense has been the

852
00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:23,479
Speaker 2: best in the NFL this year, it was a bad

853
00:34:23,520 --> 00:34:25,839
Speaker 2: matchup for the Packers. They are now taken on which

854
00:34:25,840 --> 00:34:27,919
Speaker 2: maybe is the worst pass defense at least in the NFC,

855
00:34:28,000 --> 00:34:31,440
Speaker 2: maybe the whole NFL. Giants give up sixty eight percent completions,

856
00:34:31,440 --> 00:34:34,239
Speaker 2: they give up eight point one yards per pass and

857
00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:36,400
Speaker 2: just look at the yardage they've given up recently. And

858
00:34:36,440 --> 00:34:39,040
Speaker 2: what's incredible about this, they've lost seven straight games. You know,

859
00:34:39,080 --> 00:34:40,759
Speaker 2: normally teams run the ball when they have the lead,

860
00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:43,080
Speaker 2: and the Giants you think wouldn't be thrown on as

861
00:34:43,160 --> 00:34:46,400
Speaker 2: much two hundred and seventy two eighteen, two fifty seven,

862
00:34:46,520 --> 00:34:49,720
Speaker 2: three sixteen. The last four weeks they did hold Arizona

863
00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:51,440
Speaker 2: at eighty nine, still lost the game, but the two

864
00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:53,920
Speaker 2: weeks before that New England and Minnesota three thirteen and

865
00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:56,560
Speaker 2: two seventy nine allowed. And now they're taking on as

866
00:34:56,560 --> 00:34:58,240
Speaker 2: good of any quarterback in the league and Aaron Rodgers.

867
00:34:58,280 --> 00:35:00,799
Speaker 2: So I'd like the Aaron Rodgers props over specifically, say

868
00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:02,160
Speaker 2: over to total passing yards.

869
00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:05,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's gonna be a win. Whatever I mean this

870
00:35:05,239 --> 00:35:08,360
Speaker 1: is I look, I feel about this game the exact

871
00:35:08,360 --> 00:35:10,440
Speaker 1: same way you do, which is I think the Packers

872
00:35:10,480 --> 00:35:12,319
Speaker 1: are just going to come out and get you know,

873
00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:15,200
Speaker 1: just firing on all cylinders in this game. I think

874
00:35:15,200 --> 00:35:18,040
Speaker 1: they were really embarrassed last game. Rogers in particular. I

875
00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:20,120
Speaker 1: think there's going to be a lot of stuff going on.

876
00:35:20,160 --> 00:35:22,400
Speaker 1: You did bring up a good point with the props,

877
00:35:22,440 --> 00:35:24,480
Speaker 1: which because look, if you've been listening to it. Almost

878
00:35:24,480 --> 00:35:26,719
Speaker 1: always I'm taking it over and it's always that kind

879
00:35:26,719 --> 00:35:29,640
Speaker 1: of a garden variety line. That is because when we record,

880
00:35:29,719 --> 00:35:32,400
Speaker 1: you know, prop bets generally don't drop till closer to

881
00:35:32,480 --> 00:35:34,719
Speaker 1: game time. And it's funny because the vast majority of

882
00:35:34,760 --> 00:35:37,160
Speaker 1: the props I'm actually able to play once they come

883
00:35:37,200 --> 00:35:40,960
Speaker 1: out on Saturday or even Sunday morning are unders because

884
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:43,520
Speaker 1: that's generally when I project players, which you know, I

885
00:35:43,560 --> 00:35:45,960
Speaker 1: also do fantasy, so I'm projecting players I'm able to

886
00:35:46,000 --> 00:35:48,400
Speaker 1: really go there. So with these, You're right, it's a

887
00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:50,680
Speaker 1: little more difficult because you've always got to go over.

888
00:35:50,719 --> 00:35:53,279
Speaker 1: And again, we I use points bet because that's really

889
00:35:53,320 --> 00:35:55,440
Speaker 1: the one of the few that has it out there.

890
00:35:55,480 --> 00:35:57,959
Speaker 1: So for me, I'm going to take DJ Shark over

891
00:35:58,040 --> 00:36:00,600
Speaker 1: one hundred yards receiving against the Bucks. That's a plus

892
00:36:00,600 --> 00:36:02,800
Speaker 1: one sixty right now. Chark and pretty much all the

893
00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:06,600
Speaker 1: Jaguars receivers had a terrible day against the Titans, but

894
00:36:06,719 --> 00:36:09,360
Speaker 1: he'd seen at least nine targets in each of his

895
00:36:09,480 --> 00:36:12,160
Speaker 1: three previous games. I expect him to reach that number

896
00:36:12,200 --> 00:36:14,120
Speaker 1: again in a game where the Jaguars are certainly going

897
00:36:14,160 --> 00:36:16,600
Speaker 1: to need points. I mean that Bucks hit the over

898
00:36:16,719 --> 00:36:19,160
Speaker 1: on pretty much every one of their games. The Bucks

899
00:36:19,200 --> 00:36:21,960
Speaker 1: have an incredibly strong run defense, as most betters now

900
00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:25,160
Speaker 1: at this point, but an abysmal pass defense. Dede. Westbrook,

901
00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:27,840
Speaker 1: Chris Conley, They're both going to factor in, But in

902
00:36:27,880 --> 00:36:30,440
Speaker 1: the end, I think realistically it's gonna be Chark. He's

903
00:36:30,440 --> 00:36:33,359
Speaker 1: gonna have by far dominate the targets. I think he's

904
00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:35,880
Speaker 1: gonna have a ton of receiving yards. So at plus

905
00:36:35,920 --> 00:36:38,520
Speaker 1: one sixty, I think the odds are good enough for me.

906
00:36:38,840 --> 00:36:41,040
Speaker 1: All right, that is gonna do it for today's show.

907
00:36:41,080 --> 00:36:43,400
Speaker 1: Thanks for joining me, Steve. Remind everyone where they can

908
00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:44,839
Speaker 1: find more of you and your work.

909
00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:48,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, the website prosportsinfo dot com, and then on Twitter,

910
00:36:48,760 --> 00:36:51,239
Speaker 2: as you mentioned earlier, Steve Merril, and it's two RS,

911
00:36:51,320 --> 00:36:53,439
Speaker 2: one L, just one L. It's unusual, but it allowed

912
00:36:53,480 --> 00:36:55,480
Speaker 2: me to get my Twitter handro many years after Twitter

913
00:36:55,520 --> 00:36:58,400
Speaker 2: had started, so I wasn't complaining at Steve Merril, M

914
00:36:58,480 --> 00:37:01,480
Speaker 2: E R R I L on Twitter, website again, prosportsinfo

915
00:37:01,560 --> 00:37:03,960
Speaker 2: dot com, and anybody that hears the podcast and emails

916
00:37:03,960 --> 00:37:05,360
Speaker 2: me directly, I'll be glad to send him one of

917
00:37:05,360 --> 00:37:08,200
Speaker 2: my personal best bets for this weekend. Steve at Pro

918
00:37:08,280 --> 00:37:10,360
Speaker 2: sports Info dot com just mentioned the show for a

919
00:37:10,400 --> 00:37:14,680
Speaker 2: free best bet with analysis. Steve at prosportsinfo dot com.

920
00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:17,120
Speaker 1: Well, that's great, and you know, I have a lot

921
00:37:17,120 --> 00:37:20,239
Speaker 1: of envy right now because you know, Dan Harris, I

922
00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:21,960
Speaker 1: came in a little late there and I have not

923
00:37:22,040 --> 00:37:23,640
Speaker 1: been able to get my name. I'm going to find

924
00:37:23,640 --> 00:37:26,280
Speaker 1: the real Dan Harris though, and I'm gonna certainly steal

925
00:37:26,440 --> 00:37:28,480
Speaker 1: whatever he's got going on. But thanks again for joining us.

926
00:37:28,520 --> 00:37:31,960
Speaker 1: I want to remind everyone about BETMGM, where you can

927
00:37:32,040 --> 00:37:35,239
Speaker 1: download their betmgm Sports app and sign up using our

928
00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:39,200
Speaker 1: promo code Harris and basically win free money on any

929
00:37:39,320 --> 00:37:42,800
Speaker 1: number of bets either on Thanksgiving, on Sunday or even

930
00:37:43,000 --> 00:37:45,640
Speaker 1: on Monday. And don't forget to leave a review for

931
00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:48,040
Speaker 1: the podcast on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher and send a

932
00:37:48,040 --> 00:37:51,239
Speaker 1: screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com

933
00:37:51,280 --> 00:37:54,400
Speaker 1: to be entered into our Odell Beckham Junior signed helmet giveaway.

934
00:37:54,520 --> 00:37:57,320
Speaker 1: Good luck with your wagers this weekend and on Thanksgiving everyone,

935
00:37:57,640 --> 00:37:59,600
Speaker 1: We'll be back breaking down the early lines for week

936
00:37:59,600 --> 00:38:22,600
Speaker 1: fourteen on Monday,