WEBVTT - Bright Horizons Providing Child-Care Help for Workers

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanevik. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>you the latest news from the world to business and finance,

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<v Speaker 1>plus technology, politics, economics, all partnising the power of Business

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<v Speaker 1>Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and

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<v Speaker 1>analysts in more than one twenty countries. You can download

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<v Speaker 1>can also listen to our radio show at two pm

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<v Speaker 1>Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube

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<v Speaker 1>search Bloomberg Global News. Carol Master along with Tim Stanoviek,

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<v Speaker 1>we mentioned some of the COVID headlines we know. U

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<v Speaker 1>S regulators have given emergency approval for people ages twelve

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<v Speaker 1>to fifteen to receive a third dose of Visor's vaccine.

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<v Speaker 1>I do feel like all of this stuff is going

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<v Speaker 1>to be very helpful, though I don't know that's the question. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>there is always that issue, right. We do know a

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<v Speaker 1>record ten million people were diagnosed in the seven days

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<v Speaker 1>through Sunday, almost twice the previous weekly high, as a

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<v Speaker 1>macron spread across the globe. So we are dealing with

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<v Speaker 1>those numbers. Um, that's the tough part of another question.

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<v Speaker 1>Do we still care about numbers? If everyone's gonna get this,

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<v Speaker 1>do we do we care about case count or do

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<v Speaker 1>we care more about hospitalizations and deaths? It's a great question.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's put that to our next guest. Dr William Hazeltine

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<v Speaker 1>is back with us, chairman and president of Access Health International.

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<v Speaker 1>You know who they are there, a nonprofit. They're on

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<v Speaker 1>a mission to really improve access to high quality and

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<v Speaker 1>affordable health care for people everywhere. Dr hazel team so

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<v Speaker 1>well known in the biotech world. He's founded several biotech companies,

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<v Speaker 1>including Human Genome Sciences, and he joins us once again

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<v Speaker 1>on the phone from Connecticut. Doctor Hazel teen, so good

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<v Speaker 1>to have you here with Tim and myself. How are

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<v Speaker 1>you very well? And I wish you both a happy

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<v Speaker 1>Do hear well? Same to you, happy and healthy one

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<v Speaker 1>to all of yours. Um, what do you what's the

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<v Speaker 1>number we need to focus on when it comes to

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<v Speaker 1>COVID cases versus hospitalizations, versus deaths and so on. It

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<v Speaker 1>would be a real disaster to give up comedy cases

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<v Speaker 1>of infection. The reason for that is that's how you

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<v Speaker 1>allocate resources. You have to know where that detection is. Secondly, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>it is also going to be an indicator of what's

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<v Speaker 1>going to happen in the future or what's going to

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<v Speaker 1>happen with long COVID. Everybody talks about hospitalizations, but you know,

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<v Speaker 1>in any battle, account that wounded, the hospital and the dead.

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<v Speaker 1>It's important account to dead. Of course, it's important to

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<v Speaker 1>count hospitalizations, but those who are wounded may be seriously

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<v Speaker 1>wounded for a long time. At least half of those

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<v Speaker 1>who have mild cases may have two or three months

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<v Speaker 1>of serious issues, and about ten may have long term,

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<v Speaker 1>very serious mental issues, issues with the kidneys, needing, transplants, diabetes,

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<v Speaker 1>heart disease, a lot of really big problems. So it's

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<v Speaker 1>really important. It would be a big disaster. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>we count flue cases as well as clue hospitalizations and death,

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<v Speaker 1>so I think we have to keep counting cases. It

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<v Speaker 1>tells us what's happening where. It's also very good gunning

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<v Speaker 1>for you personally to figure out what you're listed yetting infected.

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<v Speaker 1>H It's sort of like the weather. It's a weather report.

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<v Speaker 1>Is it funny, is it rainy, is it a thunderstorm

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<v Speaker 1>or Tornado. You have to know what the infection rate

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<v Speaker 1>is in your area. It's a very very big mistake.

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<v Speaker 1>I think we should give up case counting. Okay, that's

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<v Speaker 1>good to know. Hey, Dr Hazeltine, help us understand how

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<v Speaker 1>you're thinking about the omicron variant a lot. We're getting

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<v Speaker 1>more and more data each and every day, and the

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<v Speaker 1>data continue to tell us that perhaps this isn't as

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't make people as sick as previous variants, including the

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<v Speaker 1>delta variant. What do we need to know about the

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<v Speaker 1>omicron variant? I think that again it's false reassurance. First

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<v Speaker 1>of all, we know really highly highly transmissible, and that

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<v Speaker 1>you and I know that we have people who've never

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<v Speaker 1>been infected before, who are very carefully and triplely vaccinated

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<v Speaker 1>and even triplely vaccinated and previously affected. We're getting infected

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<v Speaker 1>and some of them are getting pretty sick. I have

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<v Speaker 1>friends that have been sick for ten days already with it.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's it maybe on the statistical basis putting fewer

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<v Speaker 1>people in the hospital, and it looks like that's likely

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<v Speaker 1>to be true, especially if you're fascinated. I think we

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<v Speaker 1>have very little data on what happens to that large

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<v Speaker 1>fraction of people who aren't fascinating. Second thing, before we

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<v Speaker 1>were willing to write this off as mild and therefore

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<v Speaker 1>not worry about it. What's happening to our kids. It's

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<v Speaker 1>putting a lot of our kids and young people in

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<v Speaker 1>the hospital h three or four times more than any

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<v Speaker 1>other uh pandemically had of this in any other ways

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<v Speaker 1>we have in the past. So I think those are

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<v Speaker 1>really big crushes. And finally, we don't know what this

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<v Speaker 1>is going to do for the long COVID. So one

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<v Speaker 1>summary of this was a trodes and horse and inside

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<v Speaker 1>the little saying uh long trovid. So we really have

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<v Speaker 1>to take that good look that was the pathogesis is

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<v Speaker 1>going to be a says. Responsible attitude is to say

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<v Speaker 1>it's serious. Let's take it carefully and do what we

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<v Speaker 1>can to avoid it. Yeah, it's something Tim and I

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<v Speaker 1>I know talked about. I know we talked about at home.

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<v Speaker 1>I have a daughter who's eighteen, and she's like my

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<v Speaker 1>fear knocking for Micah. She hasn't gotten in and she

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<v Speaker 1>thinks about I'm a young person, what happens if I'm

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<v Speaker 1>one of the long haulers. I do wonder to Dr

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<v Speaker 1>Haseltine you know, we have had members of the medical

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<v Speaker 1>community on saying you're we're all going to get it,

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<v Speaker 1>and in some ways that may help it burn itself out.

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<v Speaker 1>But is that true, Like I do wonder, are we

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<v Speaker 1>still possibly at risk of a variant that is very

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<v Speaker 1>contagious and very very virulent at the same time we

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<v Speaker 1>are And I think that those people who have always

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<v Speaker 1>said there's always been a tendency for people to say

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<v Speaker 1>that this is the last one we're going to get

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<v Speaker 1>her immunity. I think it was clear from the very

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<v Speaker 1>beginning that there is no such thing as her immunity

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<v Speaker 1>for coronaviruses. Coronaviruses come back, as told every year, despite

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<v Speaker 1>the fact you've had it the year before, and they

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<v Speaker 1>give you another call. Uh, And this thing is going

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<v Speaker 1>to keep coming back. It has been evolved two bypass

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<v Speaker 1>our mute defenses. Now we're fortunate that the vaccines seem

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<v Speaker 1>to reduce hospitalization by about ten folds, which is fantastic.

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<v Speaker 1>But how long that will hold we don't know. We

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<v Speaker 1>just have no idea yet. Whether it's a year, two years,

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<v Speaker 1>or three years. We're pretty sure it's not going to

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<v Speaker 1>be forever. But this virus is not. It's never going

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<v Speaker 1>to be such a thing in my opinion as her community,

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<v Speaker 1>whether it's induced by vaccine or by UH infection. We

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<v Speaker 1>have to take this really seriously Europe. Of massive research

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<v Speaker 1>efforts which we have, we have the capability to do it.

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<v Speaker 1>Find many ways to stop this, whether it's with drugs

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<v Speaker 1>or better vaccines or continual vaccines. We have to take

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<v Speaker 1>this really seriously, and it's not going to go away.

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<v Speaker 1>Not going to go away for her community. Hey, Dr Hazeltine,

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<v Speaker 1>last question, when is this going to be in the

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<v Speaker 1>rear view mirror for us unpredicted I'm not willing to

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<v Speaker 1>make that perdition. I don't see in appearing in the mirror.

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<v Speaker 1>You asked. The question to this combine both transmission and

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<v Speaker 1>lethality is yes, it's what we're worried about. My immediate

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<v Speaker 1>worry is it's going to recombine the delta called the

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<v Speaker 1>friend of mine calls it Dolment's wrong. I'm a clock.

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<v Speaker 1>So we might create are a lot of people with

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<v Speaker 1>both in questions in this country right now, and we

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<v Speaker 1>know this virus is a master of recombining. So I

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<v Speaker 1>think we don't. I don't see the rear mirror appearing.

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<v Speaker 1>Yet so just when you say that, that whole idea

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<v Speaker 1>of what you said earlier to about the false sense

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<v Speaker 1>of security heard people said well it's only to be omicron,

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<v Speaker 1>it's not so lethal, and that we were having a

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<v Speaker 1>conversation at home. But it's like, well what if I

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<v Speaker 1>get it and I actually get from the delta areas,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, and it's a lot more serious. Um. Doctor

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<v Speaker 1>Haseltine always good to get some time with you. Please

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<v Speaker 1>stay safe and healthy. Chairman and president of Access Health International,

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<v Speaker 1>joining us once again on the phone from Connecticut. He's

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<v Speaker 1>also author of cv PTSD COVID related post traumatic stress Disorder,

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<v Speaker 1>What it is and What to do about it. You're

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<v Speaker 1>listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Workers we know

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<v Speaker 1>continuing to work remotely increasingly so with the rise in

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<v Speaker 1>COVID cases. Meantime, their kids are spending more time in

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<v Speaker 1>the office. For more on what's going on is Tim.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a story you'll find online of Bloomberg Business Week.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's bring in Jeff Green who wrote the story. He's

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<v Speaker 1>managing diversity reporter for Bloomberg News. He joins us on

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<v Speaker 1>the phone from Michigan. Also joining us is Joel Webber,

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<v Speaker 1>editor at Bloomberg business Week. He is joining us on

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<v Speaker 1>the remote access line from Brooklyn. Happy New Year to

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<v Speaker 1>both of you guys. First, Droll, I want to start

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<v Speaker 1>with just just for people who don't have kids, maybe

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<v Speaker 1>they don't understand or or know what Bright Horizons is.

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<v Speaker 1>So let's start with bright Horizons because that's a central

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<v Speaker 1>part of the story. Oh Man, So, bright Horizons has

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<v Speaker 1>a network of facilities us the country that allow you

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<v Speaker 1>to basically have a daycare option, and a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>people and a lot of employeers use that as sort

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<v Speaker 1>of an emergency safety now, yeah, exactly, it's all part

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<v Speaker 1>of your E A P program UM and disclaimer, Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>is included in that UM. They also have an in

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<v Speaker 1>home option that pre pre COVID, like I personally would

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<v Speaker 1>take advantage of when things went awry. UM. And you know,

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<v Speaker 1>as we were, we're working on a series of stories

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<v Speaker 1>that we were calling the New Rules of Work. Jeff's

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<v Speaker 1>UMM reporting on the company sort of fascinated us because

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<v Speaker 1>here's a company that actually has a business model UM

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<v Speaker 1>that could only become more helpful for employers as we

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<v Speaker 1>as we deal with these um you know, ongoing school dilemmas,

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<v Speaker 1>ongoing childcare issues, um. And you know, ohmacrom in some

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<v Speaker 1>ways embodies that. So, so Jeff, tell us about what

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<v Speaker 1>you discovered and what the future holds for the company. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>well it really led me into this is the fact

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<v Speaker 1>that like the core core of their business is offering

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<v Speaker 1>on site daycare for people who go to the office.

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<v Speaker 1>So my initial assumption was, well, this can't be good

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<v Speaker 1>because you know, nobody's going to the office, But in

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<v Speaker 1>you know, sort of just just after ten twenty minutes

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<v Speaker 1>talking to the CEO and then also looking at what

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<v Speaker 1>was happening, became clear that you know, there's this daycare

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<v Speaker 1>crisis that we already knew about. Here's a company that

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<v Speaker 1>offers not just on site decare, but subsidize reduction for

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<v Speaker 1>the employees for the you know, hundred and twenty kids

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<v Speaker 1>whose parents are lucky enough to have this option. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>And so what could have been a disaster. They had

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<v Speaker 1>to close like eight hundred and fifty of a thousand

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<v Speaker 1>centers um right off the bat when the pandemic came.

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<v Speaker 1>Now they're almost all back opened and you know, people

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<v Speaker 1>are using it as a retention tool or or a

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<v Speaker 1>recruiting tool for new employees, saying, hey, you know, come here,

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<v Speaker 1>we'll pay for your daycare and you can, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>have them right here at the office. And if you're

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<v Speaker 1>not coming to your office, your kids can be here.

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<v Speaker 1>So it was it was completely not what I expected

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<v Speaker 1>to hear. I thought I was going to hear the

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<v Speaker 1>story of shifting completely to another line of business, but

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<v Speaker 1>it turned out their core was actually positioned well too.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, Jeff, I think about I feel like for

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<v Speaker 1>so many years has been to bododle, like even talk

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<v Speaker 1>about child care at the office. It's really um. And

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know whether it's cost of COVID specifically, but

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<v Speaker 1>things have changed dramatically. Yeah, a lot of people didn't

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<v Speaker 1>really care if their employees had children or not, except

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<v Speaker 1>you know, maybe in the HR department. But you start

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<v Speaker 1>to see them on zoom and you realize, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>when your own e vps of whatever are on Twitter

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<v Speaker 1>talking about how rough it is to parent during the pandemic,

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<v Speaker 1>Suddenly people are like, wow, like a lot of people

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<v Speaker 1>have children, and some of those people are struggling. Um children, Yes, exactly. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>and I mean that that the that is sort of

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<v Speaker 1>it's almost a bitter sweet tale because so many of us,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, I shouldn't say us, because we technically qualified

0:11:55.760 --> 0:11:58.480
<v Speaker 1>for at least the temporary version, but so many, very

0:11:58.520 --> 0:12:01.560
<v Speaker 1>few people can actually get the full on subsidized on

0:12:01.640 --> 0:12:04.360
<v Speaker 1>site daycare that this offers. So for those people who

0:12:04.360 --> 0:12:06.679
<v Speaker 1>are lucky enough to work for those companies, this is

0:12:06.679 --> 0:12:09.000
<v Speaker 1>a solution to a problem that for most people still

0:12:09.040 --> 0:12:11.440
<v Speaker 1>doesn't really seem to have any kind of you know,

0:12:11.720 --> 0:12:14.959
<v Speaker 1>you know, the building back Better is kind of stalled,

0:12:14.960 --> 0:12:17.120
<v Speaker 1>which had some money toward it. It's just we don't

0:12:17.120 --> 0:12:19.600
<v Speaker 1>really see an answer for most people for this problem.

0:12:19.880 --> 0:12:21.120
<v Speaker 1>You have to talk a little bit more about this,

0:12:21.160 --> 0:12:22.880
<v Speaker 1>because you do make that point in the story that

0:12:22.960 --> 0:12:26.040
<v Speaker 1>this is something that is is really for the luckiest

0:12:26.080 --> 0:12:29.160
<v Speaker 1>of employees in the United States, a benefit that's really

0:12:29.200 --> 0:12:32.320
<v Speaker 1>only available to uh in the greater scheme of things,

0:12:32.320 --> 0:12:36.640
<v Speaker 1>a handful of people. Um, what is the conversation that's

0:12:36.640 --> 0:12:39.800
<v Speaker 1>happening nationwide and how has that changed in the Biden

0:12:39.840 --> 0:12:43.040
<v Speaker 1>administration and with the stalling of Build back Better, does

0:12:43.120 --> 0:12:45.880
<v Speaker 1>that become something in two that's kind of on the

0:12:45.880 --> 0:12:49.920
<v Speaker 1>back burner? Yeah, I mean unless the government or somebody

0:12:50.000 --> 0:12:52.120
<v Speaker 1>is going to come forward and say, hey, everyone who

0:12:52.120 --> 0:12:55.360
<v Speaker 1>has children, here's subsidized daycare for you. I mean, in

0:12:55.400 --> 0:12:58.680
<v Speaker 1>some places, your daycare costs more than your rent. So

0:12:58.880 --> 0:13:00.400
<v Speaker 1>if you want to be a member of the of

0:13:00.440 --> 0:13:03.040
<v Speaker 1>the workforce, and you know, I mean, you can't just

0:13:03.160 --> 0:13:05.480
<v Speaker 1>keep your kids at home like we did during the pandemic.

0:13:05.480 --> 0:13:08.120
<v Speaker 1>That's not a long term, tenable solution for anyone who's

0:13:08.120 --> 0:13:10.240
<v Speaker 1>tried to, you know, have a meeting and have a

0:13:10.280 --> 0:13:13.360
<v Speaker 1>toddler or even a teenager who has you know, things

0:13:13.360 --> 0:13:15.600
<v Speaker 1>they need to do. It. It works in an emergency,

0:13:15.640 --> 0:13:18.840
<v Speaker 1>but it's it's not like the solution for for forever.

0:13:20.960 --> 0:13:25.520
<v Speaker 1>So so speaking of forever solutions, Jeff, Like, the other

0:13:25.720 --> 0:13:27.880
<v Speaker 1>thing that a CEO of a child care company like

0:13:27.920 --> 0:13:31.360
<v Speaker 1>this would faces just this ongoing labor shortage UM. And

0:13:31.360 --> 0:13:34.280
<v Speaker 1>what did you learn on that front, because already, you know,

0:13:34.400 --> 0:13:38.200
<v Speaker 1>childcare is not um. Childcare professionals are not getting paid

0:13:38.920 --> 0:13:41.800
<v Speaker 1>um you know what would even be deemed a living

0:13:41.840 --> 0:13:44.800
<v Speaker 1>wage for the most part. Right, Yeah, that's one of

0:13:44.800 --> 0:13:47.600
<v Speaker 1>the other advantages they have being this sort of you know,

0:13:48.240 --> 0:13:51.440
<v Speaker 1>on site high end partners. They can pay more. They

0:13:51.480 --> 0:13:54.679
<v Speaker 1>also offer the ability to get into like a higher

0:13:54.760 --> 0:13:58.800
<v Speaker 1>education degree in child um care or you know, in

0:13:59.000 --> 0:14:01.319
<v Speaker 1>child whatever. I mean, you can go you can basically

0:14:01.360 --> 0:14:03.600
<v Speaker 1>get a college degree by working here and take yourself

0:14:03.600 --> 0:14:06.480
<v Speaker 1>even farther into this field to a higher level of pay.

0:14:06.520 --> 0:14:08.640
<v Speaker 1>So it's it's that, but it's still I mean, one

0:14:08.640 --> 0:14:10.720
<v Speaker 1>of the reasons they don't expect a full return to

0:14:10.920 --> 0:14:14.160
<v Speaker 1>their margins until maybe later this year or next year,

0:14:14.200 --> 0:14:17.640
<v Speaker 1>whatever the latest estimate is, is the headwind of having

0:14:17.679 --> 0:14:19.840
<v Speaker 1>to pay more. I mean that they're not immune to it.

0:14:19.840 --> 0:14:22.560
<v Speaker 1>It's just they start from a better position and they're

0:14:22.600 --> 0:14:25.080
<v Speaker 1>able to maybe attract people with some of the benefits

0:14:25.080 --> 0:14:27.200
<v Speaker 1>that others just can't offer for the same reasons we've

0:14:27.200 --> 0:14:29.960
<v Speaker 1>been talking about, it's really hard to have eleven twelve

0:14:30.000 --> 0:14:32.000
<v Speaker 1>dollar hours kind of the tops for a lot of

0:14:32.040 --> 0:14:35.440
<v Speaker 1>these teacare providers. Okay, so the other thing that you

0:14:35.480 --> 0:14:37.240
<v Speaker 1>can do when you're in this business is to not

0:14:37.360 --> 0:14:41.400
<v Speaker 1>just do childcare and growth for the company looks like

0:14:41.440 --> 0:14:45.400
<v Speaker 1>what yeah, so, I mean you mentioned the emergency care

0:14:45.680 --> 0:14:48.600
<v Speaker 1>really high margins there. Every they added a hundred and

0:14:48.600 --> 0:14:51.040
<v Speaker 1>fifty at least new customers in that area I think

0:14:51.040 --> 0:14:54.920
<v Speaker 1>it was, and everyone they add is bringing in higher

0:14:54.960 --> 0:14:59.480
<v Speaker 1>margin business because that's basically you know, any company, including ours,

0:14:59.520 --> 0:15:01.800
<v Speaker 1>pays up for a certain number of days and then

0:15:01.840 --> 0:15:04.360
<v Speaker 1>also will add days as more needed. Um. And then

0:15:04.400 --> 0:15:06.600
<v Speaker 1>you have some of these other they bought Citter City,

0:15:06.640 --> 0:15:10.640
<v Speaker 1>they bought a daycare, I mean a camp provider, which

0:15:10.640 --> 0:15:12.160
<v Speaker 1>will be you know, loom a lot larger as we

0:15:12.200 --> 0:15:14.840
<v Speaker 1>come into like with the third summer of a pandemic

0:15:14.880 --> 0:15:16.960
<v Speaker 1>and people are trying to figure out, you know, where

0:15:17.000 --> 0:15:19.840
<v Speaker 1>where kids going to go, and you know many of

0:15:19.880 --> 0:15:22.200
<v Speaker 1>them are back at school, but there all these they

0:15:22.240 --> 0:15:24.520
<v Speaker 1>basically kind of hedge their bat You can, in theory

0:15:24.960 --> 0:15:28.240
<v Speaker 1>use their services everywhere from your toddler to your high

0:15:28.240 --> 0:15:31.600
<v Speaker 1>school senior trying to find out how to get into college. Um.

0:15:31.760 --> 0:15:34.720
<v Speaker 1>So it's they've been widening the aperture of like how

0:15:34.760 --> 0:15:37.080
<v Speaker 1>they approach children. In fact, some of their customers have

0:15:37.120 --> 0:15:39.000
<v Speaker 1>been demanding it. They wanted you know, they use some

0:15:39.040 --> 0:15:41.200
<v Speaker 1>of their facilities that were closed as like middle school

0:15:41.200 --> 0:15:43.960
<v Speaker 1>care kind of centers during the pandemic. Well. I also

0:15:44.000 --> 0:15:45.520
<v Speaker 1>love how they're kind of helping out what they call

0:15:45.560 --> 0:15:48.640
<v Speaker 1>that Sandwich generation, right, those individuals, because they're looking into

0:15:48.720 --> 0:15:51.640
<v Speaker 1>also I guess providing elder care. So it's interesting that

0:15:51.720 --> 0:15:53.600
<v Speaker 1>they are looking to kind of help us at all

0:15:53.640 --> 0:15:56.120
<v Speaker 1>different levels so that we can actually work, whether it's

0:15:56.120 --> 0:16:00.440
<v Speaker 1>from home or elsewhere. It is another great story from you, Jeff.

0:16:00.480 --> 0:16:02.920
<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much. Jeff Green, he's managing Diversity reporter

0:16:02.960 --> 0:16:05.320
<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg News on the phone from Michigan. You can

0:16:05.400 --> 0:16:08.120
<v Speaker 1>check it out. It is online at business week dot com.

0:16:08.240 --> 0:16:11.680
<v Speaker 1>Jill Weber, he's editor of Business Week magazine. Uh and

0:16:11.760 --> 0:16:14.320
<v Speaker 1>of course you can find all those stories online on

0:16:14.400 --> 0:16:17.240
<v Speaker 1>the terminal, and of course check out the news stands

0:16:17.280 --> 0:16:19.640
<v Speaker 1>because you can pick up the magazine as well. But

0:16:19.800 --> 0:16:21.560
<v Speaker 1>it's easy to work from home with a three year old,

0:16:23.600 --> 0:16:28.480
<v Speaker 1>it's not. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer

0:16:28.720 --> 0:16:33.080
<v Speaker 1>and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stenovic on Bloomberg Radio. We've

0:16:33.080 --> 0:16:35.360
<v Speaker 1>been talking about already and watching. It's staying near its

0:16:35.360 --> 0:16:38.960
<v Speaker 1>tides the day. It's Tesla band. It's up more today,

0:16:38.960 --> 0:16:42.320
<v Speaker 1>Tesla smashing quarterly deliveries with a record of three eight thousand,

0:16:42.360 --> 0:16:45.440
<v Speaker 1>six hundred cars. I saw Dani Hols article yesterday last

0:16:45.520 --> 0:16:47.520
<v Speaker 1>night about this. I sent it to my team at

0:16:47.560 --> 0:16:50.680
<v Speaker 1>quick take Stock and I said, watch Tesla stock tomorrow

0:16:50.800 --> 0:16:53.080
<v Speaker 1>and see what happens after this. Let's bring her in now,

0:16:53.160 --> 0:16:55.880
<v Speaker 1>Dana Holes, technology reporter for Bloomberg Near. She joins us

0:16:55.880 --> 0:16:58.320
<v Speaker 1>on the phone from San Francisco, Dana, where you've been

0:16:58.320 --> 0:17:01.840
<v Speaker 1>covering Tesla for years. This number, as you write, surpassing,

0:17:02.120 --> 0:17:04.320
<v Speaker 1>you know, even the company's own expectations. Were you pretty

0:17:04.320 --> 0:17:07.320
<v Speaker 1>blown away with it. I mean it was a very

0:17:07.359 --> 0:17:10.200
<v Speaker 1>strong quarter. It really begs the question like why did

0:17:10.200 --> 0:17:12.480
<v Speaker 1>the analysts get it so wrong? I mean, it's just

0:17:12.720 --> 0:17:15.480
<v Speaker 1>like it's it's like, you know, and it's this expectations

0:17:15.520 --> 0:17:18.840
<v Speaker 1>game where you know, the analysts put out you know,

0:17:18.920 --> 0:17:22.160
<v Speaker 1>analysts have their own models, and then Tesla itself sends

0:17:22.200 --> 0:17:25.119
<v Speaker 1>around its own consensus figures, you know that, which is

0:17:25.160 --> 0:17:28.040
<v Speaker 1>sort of broader. But I mean they beat by like

0:17:28.160 --> 0:17:30.960
<v Speaker 1>forty five thousand units, Like it's rare to have a

0:17:31.040 --> 0:17:34.040
<v Speaker 1>beat that's quite this large. Um. You know, our bloom

0:17:34.040 --> 0:17:36.840
<v Speaker 1>were consensus figures were two hundred sixty three and they

0:17:36.840 --> 0:17:41.560
<v Speaker 1>delivered three six hundreds, I mean three thousand, six hundreds.

0:17:41.640 --> 0:17:44.240
<v Speaker 1>So I mean that's like a pretty significant beat. And

0:17:44.520 --> 0:17:47.000
<v Speaker 1>you know, I think I think it's it just shows

0:17:47.040 --> 0:17:52.480
<v Speaker 1>that despite the semiconductor short shortage, despite COVID despite logistics

0:17:52.600 --> 0:17:56.080
<v Speaker 1>that there is demand for electric vehicles, and um, you know,

0:17:56.119 --> 0:17:58.320
<v Speaker 1>I would love more visibility from the company as to

0:17:58.400 --> 0:18:01.080
<v Speaker 1>how many of these cars were sold in China. We

0:18:01.080 --> 0:18:04.520
<v Speaker 1>don't have a lot of visibility into the regional breakdown. Um,

0:18:04.600 --> 0:18:06.640
<v Speaker 1>but you know this is this is big for TESSI.

0:18:06.720 --> 0:18:09.520
<v Speaker 1>I mean, we the transition is here and we're just

0:18:09.520 --> 0:18:11.919
<v Speaker 1>sort of seeing that accelerate quarter after quarter. All right,

0:18:11.960 --> 0:18:14.199
<v Speaker 1>so already up this year because it's the first day

0:18:14.240 --> 0:18:17.240
<v Speaker 1>of trading, we've got at one point to a trillion

0:18:17.240 --> 0:18:20.719
<v Speaker 1>dollar market cap downa you mentioned you'd like more visibility

0:18:20.760 --> 0:18:24.040
<v Speaker 1>in terms of the geographic breakdowns. Why what are you

0:18:24.080 --> 0:18:27.760
<v Speaker 1>looking for specifically? Well, testily just you know, their their

0:18:27.840 --> 0:18:30.679
<v Speaker 1>report is just very bare bones. It's like, we sold

0:18:30.680 --> 0:18:33.359
<v Speaker 1>this many cars this quarter in this year, and like

0:18:33.520 --> 0:18:35.680
<v Speaker 1>we'd like to congratulate everyone on the tensile team, but

0:18:35.720 --> 0:18:38.320
<v Speaker 1>they don't say where the cars are going. And you

0:18:38.359 --> 0:18:41.000
<v Speaker 1>can usually find it in the ten Q which will

0:18:41.000 --> 0:18:42.920
<v Speaker 1>come out after earnings, where they break down what their

0:18:43.000 --> 0:18:46.720
<v Speaker 1>largest markets are. It's traditionally been the US, then China,

0:18:47.280 --> 0:18:51.560
<v Speaker 1>then like Norway or the Netherlands. But but but I mean,

0:18:51.560 --> 0:18:54.199
<v Speaker 1>I'm just curious like, I mean, is the U s

0:18:54.200 --> 0:18:57.080
<v Speaker 1>still on top? Has China overtaken the US? I mean, now,

0:18:57.119 --> 0:18:58.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, we I just don't know. I just really

0:18:58.880 --> 0:19:01.240
<v Speaker 1>we really don't know and have to kind of piece

0:19:01.320 --> 0:19:04.640
<v Speaker 1>together market data from a lot of disparate sources. And

0:19:05.280 --> 0:19:07.560
<v Speaker 1>given you know that Tesla is the market leader, I

0:19:07.600 --> 0:19:09.960
<v Speaker 1>just would love it if they would be more transparent about,

0:19:10.080 --> 0:19:12.679
<v Speaker 1>you know, what is their top market and you know,

0:19:12.800 --> 0:19:14.840
<v Speaker 1>I think that's just information that everyone would know because

0:19:14.960 --> 0:19:18.600
<v Speaker 1>people get very hung up on like monthly sales in China.

0:19:19.240 --> 0:19:22.119
<v Speaker 1>But then because of the logistics of shipping cars, the

0:19:22.200 --> 0:19:25.399
<v Speaker 1>monthly sales aren't always super accurate. So I don't know,

0:19:25.400 --> 0:19:27.320
<v Speaker 1>I would just I would just love more from the company.

0:19:27.359 --> 0:19:30.480
<v Speaker 1>Maybe we can press on that during earnings. Yeah, I

0:19:30.760 --> 0:19:33.040
<v Speaker 1>mean Elon Musk might not be on the call, right

0:19:33.160 --> 0:19:35.880
<v Speaker 1>because he's kind of oh no, oh no, he will

0:19:35.920 --> 0:19:38.359
<v Speaker 1>be on this call. He tweeted that he's gonna come

0:19:38.400 --> 0:19:40.680
<v Speaker 1>on the call, you know, so he was I mean,

0:19:40.720 --> 0:19:44.119
<v Speaker 1>it's so funny, like Elon loves the limelight. So he

0:19:44.200 --> 0:19:45.800
<v Speaker 1>made this big thing of saying, I'm not going to

0:19:45.880 --> 0:19:47.840
<v Speaker 1>be on the call unless I have something to say.

0:19:48.080 --> 0:19:50.040
<v Speaker 1>He was not on the last earnings call, but the

0:19:50.080 --> 0:19:52.359
<v Speaker 1>first time in a decade. But then in November he

0:19:52.440 --> 0:19:54.200
<v Speaker 1>tweeted that he would be back on the call in

0:19:54.320 --> 0:19:58.879
<v Speaker 1>January with a significant product. So first a year he

0:19:58.960 --> 0:20:01.760
<v Speaker 1>will be on the call. So be on the call, Danna,

0:20:01.840 --> 0:20:03.920
<v Speaker 1>What I mean, what do you think? Is it something

0:20:03.920 --> 0:20:06.720
<v Speaker 1>about a cyber truck. Perhaps that thing still hasn't made

0:20:06.720 --> 0:20:10.679
<v Speaker 1>an appearance. Yeah, I mean Tesla has not, so I

0:20:10.760 --> 0:20:13.080
<v Speaker 1>think that I would, Yeah, I would imagine. I mean,

0:20:13.520 --> 0:20:15.919
<v Speaker 1>you know, Tesla has all these vehicles in the wings,

0:20:16.000 --> 0:20:19.640
<v Speaker 1>the cyber truck, semi truck, the next generation roadster. They've

0:20:19.640 --> 0:20:22.840
<v Speaker 1>talked about making a cheaper car in China. I mean,

0:20:22.960 --> 0:20:25.359
<v Speaker 1>maybe they'll make a delivery van, you know. I mean,

0:20:25.400 --> 0:20:28.920
<v Speaker 1>who knows. But but the truck is clearly the next

0:20:28.960 --> 0:20:32.200
<v Speaker 1>car in their product pipeline. And this is the year

0:20:32.200 --> 0:20:34.440
<v Speaker 1>of the electric truck. I mean, you have the competitors

0:20:34.520 --> 0:20:37.479
<v Speaker 1>like Ford and Ribban all coming out with their trucks.

0:20:37.560 --> 0:20:39.280
<v Speaker 1>I mean they're already out with their trucks, like the

0:20:39.359 --> 0:20:42.560
<v Speaker 1>Ribban truck is is out, and so I would yeah,

0:20:42.560 --> 0:20:44.640
<v Speaker 1>I would imagine that the cyber truck will be a signfic.

0:20:44.640 --> 0:20:46.439
<v Speaker 1>Get part of that, is this a make or break.

0:20:46.920 --> 0:20:48.880
<v Speaker 1>Maybe that's stupid to say, but I mean I feel

0:20:48.880 --> 0:20:51.480
<v Speaker 1>like it's going to be a significant year for evs overall, Danna.

0:20:51.600 --> 0:20:54.359
<v Speaker 1>And you know when I think about Mercedes, We've talked

0:20:54.359 --> 0:20:56.480
<v Speaker 1>with them and they've got an EV and we're seeing

0:20:56.520 --> 0:21:02.800
<v Speaker 1>that higher end markets certainly get more uh competition increasingly. So, um,

0:21:03.440 --> 0:21:06.159
<v Speaker 1>how is that going to make things more difficult for

0:21:06.200 --> 0:21:10.199
<v Speaker 1>Tesla potentially this year? Well, I've sort of argued this

0:21:10.240 --> 0:21:12.240
<v Speaker 1>for a long time and I'll make the argument again.

0:21:12.280 --> 0:21:14.080
<v Speaker 1>I think we need to kind of shift the way

0:21:14.080 --> 0:21:18.520
<v Speaker 1>that we think about competition. The competition if not evs

0:21:19.000 --> 0:21:22.320
<v Speaker 1>and evs fighting each other, the competition is really evies

0:21:22.400 --> 0:21:25.840
<v Speaker 1>bring versus ice vehicles. So it's more and more people

0:21:25.960 --> 0:21:27.840
<v Speaker 1>make the shift to e v s, the kind of

0:21:27.960 --> 0:21:30.560
<v Speaker 1>share of the E V pie is going to continue

0:21:30.600 --> 0:21:33.919
<v Speaker 1>to grow, and that's that's actually good for Tesla. Like

0:21:33.960 --> 0:21:36.679
<v Speaker 1>the more that EV has become normalized, the better it

0:21:36.800 --> 0:21:40.000
<v Speaker 1>is for sort of everyone. Um, So I need Tesla

0:21:40.080 --> 0:21:43.640
<v Speaker 1>might quote unquote lose market share to other EV makers

0:21:43.640 --> 0:21:46.720
<v Speaker 1>that they will continue to growth sales Europe Europe. That

0:21:46.760 --> 0:21:50.280
<v Speaker 1>makes sense. I mean, like they you know, they grew,

0:21:50.480 --> 0:21:53.320
<v Speaker 1>they grew sales just a phenomenal amount this year, and

0:21:54.080 --> 0:21:56.320
<v Speaker 1>coming into the new year with two new factories coming

0:21:56.359 --> 0:21:58.200
<v Speaker 1>online that will be able to continue to do so.

0:21:58.200 --> 0:22:00.359
<v Speaker 1>So Dana, to that end, I've been asking h the

0:22:00.480 --> 0:22:04.440
<v Speaker 1>question to other people today. Is there a chance that

0:22:04.440 --> 0:22:08.199
<v Speaker 1>that Tesla sometimes soon becomes the company that produces more

0:22:08.280 --> 0:22:11.840
<v Speaker 1>vehicles than any other any other automaker in the world. Well,

0:22:11.880 --> 0:22:13.880
<v Speaker 1>they have a long way to go to get to that.

0:22:14.200 --> 0:22:16.560
<v Speaker 1>I mean, like, if you know, compared to like Toyota

0:22:16.640 --> 0:22:19.800
<v Speaker 1>and Volkswgen. But but do they make the most evs

0:22:19.840 --> 0:22:23.159
<v Speaker 1>in the world. Absolutely, Yeah, it's fascinating. There was a

0:22:23.200 --> 0:22:24.920
<v Speaker 1>column I think too on the Bloomberg that just says,

0:22:25.240 --> 0:22:27.160
<v Speaker 1>people thinking about their cars, you have to be thinking

0:22:27.160 --> 0:22:30.120
<v Speaker 1>about if you buy a new car today, what's the

0:22:30.160 --> 0:22:33.480
<v Speaker 1>resale market in five or six years, when you typically

0:22:33.520 --> 0:22:36.639
<v Speaker 1>often sell off a car, how's the battery doing? Well? Well,

0:22:36.680 --> 0:22:38.480
<v Speaker 1>but not even that, like, are you gonna want to

0:22:38.480 --> 0:22:41.680
<v Speaker 1>buy an ice right, an internal combustion engine when maybe

0:22:41.680 --> 0:22:44.119
<v Speaker 1>in five or six years nobody's gonna want them, And

0:22:44.240 --> 0:22:46.640
<v Speaker 1>so that just kind of pumps up the demand for evs.

0:22:46.680 --> 0:22:48.760
<v Speaker 1>But there is that battery story too down the hall.

0:22:48.880 --> 0:22:51.720
<v Speaker 1>She's the best, She's Bloomberg Technology reporter. We love talking

0:22:51.760 --> 0:22:57.000
<v Speaker 1>all things Tesla and Elon Musk with her. Yeah, but

0:22:57.119 --> 0:22:59.639
<v Speaker 1>you let me drive. Oh no, no, no, this is

0:22:59.680 --> 0:23:06.640
<v Speaker 1>not a twin home. All right, pleas I want to drive.

0:23:08.960 --> 0:23:15.080
<v Speaker 1>It's good question, dri This is the drive to the

0:23:15.160 --> 0:23:21.360
<v Speaker 1>clothes on Bluebird Radio. All Right, folks, just about ten

0:23:21.400 --> 0:23:25.040
<v Speaker 1>minutes left in our trading day. We've got stocks really

0:23:25.080 --> 0:23:26.879
<v Speaker 1>hovering near their house of the session. I thought they

0:23:26.920 --> 0:23:29.080
<v Speaker 1>had seen that we could see maybe records? Is it

0:23:29.520 --> 0:23:31.639
<v Speaker 1>in the S and P five hundred today? Um, but

0:23:31.680 --> 0:23:34.320
<v Speaker 1>we'll keep an eye on that for you. And by

0:23:34.320 --> 0:23:35.879
<v Speaker 1>the way, this is still a Santa Claus rally. We

0:23:35.960 --> 0:23:39.040
<v Speaker 1>got one more day. Santa's got He's gone back to

0:23:39.040 --> 0:23:41.120
<v Speaker 1>the north. The technical definition of the Santa Claus Rally

0:23:41.119 --> 0:23:44.240
<v Speaker 1>includes the first two trading days of the new year. Captain, alright,

0:23:44.240 --> 0:23:46.840
<v Speaker 1>market captain, all right, Let's get to it with Steve Brown.

0:23:46.960 --> 0:23:50.239
<v Speaker 1>He's senior portfolio manager at American Century Investments. They've got

0:23:50.240 --> 0:23:54.120
<v Speaker 1>two fifty billion in assets under management. He's co manager

0:23:54.200 --> 0:23:56.000
<v Speaker 1>on the company's real estate fund and the Global Real

0:23:56.080 --> 0:23:58.200
<v Speaker 1>Estate Fund. That latter fund, by the way, beating most

0:23:58.200 --> 0:24:00.320
<v Speaker 1>of its peers over the past five years. Reach running

0:24:00.320 --> 0:24:03.760
<v Speaker 1>on average annually nearly four. He's on the phone in

0:24:03.760 --> 0:24:06.480
<v Speaker 1>New York City. Hey, Steve, how are you happy New Year?

0:24:07.160 --> 0:24:09.439
<v Speaker 1>I'm great? Happy New Year to you too. All Right,

0:24:09.600 --> 0:24:12.600
<v Speaker 1>So some optimism in the markets despite yields moving up.

0:24:13.000 --> 0:24:15.000
<v Speaker 1>It's been an interesting first day, but the first day

0:24:15.040 --> 0:24:18.399
<v Speaker 1>does not necessarily make a market year. Um, what are

0:24:18.440 --> 0:24:24.520
<v Speaker 1>your expectations as you look at two. Sure, we had

0:24:24.560 --> 0:24:27.800
<v Speaker 1>a very strong year in two thousand one, and as

0:24:27.840 --> 0:24:30.400
<v Speaker 1>we step into two, you know, we see a couple

0:24:30.440 --> 0:24:33.240
<v Speaker 1>of things that are still in place. We see reads

0:24:33.280 --> 0:24:35.440
<v Speaker 1>were really strong last year, right, I mean, if you

0:24:35.480 --> 0:24:37.560
<v Speaker 1>look at one measure, I think it was up. I

0:24:37.560 --> 0:24:40.200
<v Speaker 1>look at the DOWD Jones equity reat total returning decks

0:24:40.240 --> 0:24:44.840
<v Speaker 1>up last year. That's a big bump. Yes, they were

0:24:44.840 --> 0:24:47.240
<v Speaker 1>one of the worst performing asset classes in two thousand twenty,

0:24:47.320 --> 0:24:49.960
<v Speaker 1>so they did have a bounce back. But in general,

0:24:50.440 --> 0:24:54.600
<v Speaker 1>a couple of the drivers were strong. Beformance are inflationary trends,

0:24:55.119 --> 0:24:58.480
<v Speaker 1>a lot of liquidity and demand being stronger than supplied

0:24:58.560 --> 0:25:02.479
<v Speaker 1>many property types. As we enter twenty two, a lot

0:25:02.520 --> 0:25:05.440
<v Speaker 1>of those factors are still true today. Demand is great

0:25:05.440 --> 0:25:08.240
<v Speaker 1>and supply for many property sectors in regions the world,

0:25:08.920 --> 0:25:11.560
<v Speaker 1>and uh, you know, as you sit here today, inflation

0:25:11.640 --> 0:25:15.399
<v Speaker 1>is still running you know, five s. The FET is

0:25:15.440 --> 0:25:19.600
<v Speaker 1>taking actions to address it. But I think in the

0:25:19.600 --> 0:25:22.439
<v Speaker 1>first half this year we're gonna continue see inflation relatively strong.

0:25:23.000 --> 0:25:24.679
<v Speaker 1>And there are a number of property sectors that have

0:25:24.720 --> 0:25:26.560
<v Speaker 1>been able to raise rents you know, at the same

0:25:26.640 --> 0:25:28.840
<v Speaker 1>level of inflation. So they have showed some very good,

0:25:28.920 --> 0:25:31.880
<v Speaker 1>good earnings growth both in two thousand twenty one, and

0:25:31.920 --> 0:25:35.639
<v Speaker 1>we expect to be that case in two two. Also. Okay,

0:25:35.640 --> 0:25:38.080
<v Speaker 1>so where does the FED come into this, and where

0:25:38.119 --> 0:25:42.040
<v Speaker 1>does monetary policy come into this? Because I know from

0:25:42.080 --> 0:25:44.840
<v Speaker 1>from your notes that our producers gave us UH that

0:25:44.920 --> 0:25:47.920
<v Speaker 1>you still expect easy money policies to continue throughout the world,

0:25:48.440 --> 0:25:52.879
<v Speaker 1>even though we see tightening happening. Sure, My point is

0:25:52.920 --> 0:25:58.240
<v Speaker 1>that last year we had extremely easy money policies and

0:25:58.320 --> 0:26:03.159
<v Speaker 1>this year two two, we expect to have easy money policies.

0:26:03.200 --> 0:26:07.600
<v Speaker 1>So from extremely easy, too easy, still easy yet so

0:26:07.800 --> 0:26:10.399
<v Speaker 1>there's still a lot of liquidity out there. Rates are

0:26:10.400 --> 0:26:13.120
<v Speaker 1>still very low. I mean, the FED once has said

0:26:13.280 --> 0:26:15.480
<v Speaker 1>for the bond market, has said that the FED may

0:26:15.560 --> 0:26:18.480
<v Speaker 1>raise the FED funds rate three times this year, you know,

0:26:18.520 --> 0:26:22.359
<v Speaker 1>maybe up to h bases points or something like that

0:26:22.760 --> 0:26:24.960
<v Speaker 1>in the ten year. You know, it's it's around, Like

0:26:25.000 --> 0:26:26.600
<v Speaker 1>you said at the top of the hour, it's about

0:26:26.600 --> 0:26:28.639
<v Speaker 1>one point six percent right now. You know, if that

0:26:28.720 --> 0:26:30.680
<v Speaker 1>drifts hired a two percent or so, I mean, that's

0:26:30.720 --> 0:26:35.399
<v Speaker 1>still a very accommodative environment for economic activity as well

0:26:35.400 --> 0:26:39.080
<v Speaker 1>as real estate activity. You have noted as to mention

0:26:39.119 --> 0:26:40.720
<v Speaker 1>some of the research you guys shared with us and

0:26:40.800 --> 0:26:43.479
<v Speaker 1>some of the notes that property owners continue to benefit

0:26:43.480 --> 0:26:45.800
<v Speaker 1>from demand being greater than supply in many markets. You

0:26:45.840 --> 0:26:49.520
<v Speaker 1>mentioned it earlier. UM reads. There's all kinds of reads, right,

0:26:49.560 --> 0:26:52.960
<v Speaker 1>there's commercial broadly speaking that but you could break it

0:26:53.000 --> 0:26:55.640
<v Speaker 1>down into hospitality, you can talk break it down into

0:26:55.680 --> 0:26:58.439
<v Speaker 1>office properties, you can break it down into retail. You know,

0:26:58.560 --> 0:27:01.080
<v Speaker 1>where are we seeing demand and particularly being greater than

0:27:01.119 --> 0:27:06.320
<v Speaker 1>supply in many markets or even geographical variations. UM, we

0:27:06.400 --> 0:27:14.560
<v Speaker 1>see generally speaking, demand being granted and supply in rental housing, UM,

0:27:14.920 --> 0:27:19.680
<v Speaker 1>industrial and self storage to name a couple three. And

0:27:19.840 --> 0:27:21.320
<v Speaker 1>let me go back to the first one, which would

0:27:21.320 --> 0:27:25.040
<v Speaker 1>be rental housing. This could be up the apartment, it

0:27:25.119 --> 0:27:30.040
<v Speaker 1>could be single family rental properties, or to be manufactured housing. UM.

0:27:30.080 --> 0:27:33.480
<v Speaker 1>They're all benefiting these property owners, these real estate companies

0:27:33.920 --> 0:27:36.800
<v Speaker 1>are from demanding grades and supply and ability to raise

0:27:36.880 --> 0:27:40.040
<v Speaker 1>rents at a higher late rate than inflation. They're also

0:27:40.080 --> 0:27:42.800
<v Speaker 1>being benefited by high home prices. I mean, home prices

0:27:42.840 --> 0:27:47.080
<v Speaker 1>are probably a in two one. We don't expect that

0:27:47.119 --> 0:27:51.040
<v Speaker 1>type of appreciation in twenty two. But there is still

0:27:51.080 --> 0:27:54.120
<v Speaker 1>a very good demand for rental housing, and the remains

0:27:54.119 --> 0:27:57.000
<v Speaker 1>in most parts of the world assured as affordable housing.

0:27:57.400 --> 0:27:58.960
<v Speaker 1>I know a lot of people who are selling their

0:27:59.000 --> 0:28:01.320
<v Speaker 1>homes because as they know that you're going to move

0:28:01.800 --> 0:28:04.119
<v Speaker 1>in the near term or something, and taking advantage of

0:28:04.119 --> 0:28:07.840
<v Speaker 1>a market that is just silling and renting. Yep, yep.

0:28:08.000 --> 0:28:10.480
<v Speaker 1>There are those serious tax implications to doing that, right

0:28:10.600 --> 0:28:12.280
<v Speaker 1>if you take the gains and you don't actually buy

0:28:12.320 --> 0:28:16.520
<v Speaker 1>new property. That's true, that's a good point. Yeah, I mean,

0:28:16.560 --> 0:28:20.920
<v Speaker 1>but we're seeing in general is that it's still relatively

0:28:21.000 --> 0:28:23.520
<v Speaker 1>cheaper to rent than to buy because of the hurdle

0:28:24.080 --> 0:28:29.040
<v Speaker 1>putting down ten or deposits. So it really has opened

0:28:29.040 --> 0:28:32.080
<v Speaker 1>the runway up for continued strength in the rent old

0:28:32.080 --> 0:28:34.720
<v Speaker 1>apartment market, whether to New York or the sun Bold

0:28:34.800 --> 0:28:37.760
<v Speaker 1>or other parts of the country. M Hey, Steve um

0:28:37.840 --> 0:28:39.800
<v Speaker 1>Let's talk a little bit about retail, and you know,

0:28:39.840 --> 0:28:43.120
<v Speaker 1>Simon Property Group is among your your top holdings here,

0:28:43.280 --> 0:28:45.480
<v Speaker 1>and I'm I'm wondering how you're how you're looking at

0:28:45.560 --> 0:28:50.840
<v Speaker 1>retail in the recovery and retail sure UM retail reads,

0:28:51.440 --> 0:28:54.640
<v Speaker 1>whether it's Simon or some Shopping to Reach, performed very

0:28:54.680 --> 0:28:57.160
<v Speaker 1>well in two thousand twenty one. They bounced back from

0:28:57.160 --> 0:29:02.200
<v Speaker 1>a disastrous two UM as the economy generally reopened, both

0:29:02.240 --> 0:29:06.719
<v Speaker 1>in Europe, Asia in North America, so the stocks had

0:29:06.720 --> 0:29:10.040
<v Speaker 1>a good bounce. UM as we sit today, we're still

0:29:10.040 --> 0:29:12.160
<v Speaker 1>constructive on them for a couple of reasons. One is,

0:29:12.520 --> 0:29:15.720
<v Speaker 1>UM there's been a lot of leaking activity in two

0:29:15.760 --> 0:29:17.840
<v Speaker 1>thousand twenty one and that should flow into two thou

0:29:18.840 --> 0:29:23.880
<v Speaker 1>into higher outdancy levels. Secondly, UM, there have been very

0:29:23.920 --> 0:29:26.600
<v Speaker 1>few store closing their bankruptcies and the part of retailers,

0:29:26.640 --> 0:29:29.320
<v Speaker 1>so I think as we entered the peak store closing season,

0:29:29.320 --> 0:29:31.360
<v Speaker 1>which is couldly the first quarter of the year, UH,

0:29:31.440 --> 0:29:34.360
<v Speaker 1>store closing is gonna be very low. And then thirdly,

0:29:34.520 --> 0:29:38.040
<v Speaker 1>generally speaking, consumers are in good shape from a balancary perspective,

0:29:38.080 --> 0:29:40.600
<v Speaker 1>so they have plenty of spending power and so that

0:29:40.720 --> 0:29:44.880
<v Speaker 1>combination of events you know, rising outencies, lower store closings,

0:29:45.040 --> 0:29:47.400
<v Speaker 1>and they help the consumer, you know, bode well for

0:29:47.840 --> 0:29:51.840
<v Speaker 1>both consumers spending, but also for rent growth and then

0:29:51.880 --> 0:29:53.360
<v Speaker 1>a lot of growth on the part of a Simon

0:29:54.160 --> 0:29:57.720
<v Speaker 1>Property group or some strip center names like a kink

0:29:57.920 --> 0:30:00.720
<v Speaker 1>or quite Realty with you own grocery anchored optic centers.

0:30:01.160 --> 0:30:03.880
<v Speaker 1>What's your favorite space when it comes to reads or

0:30:03.880 --> 0:30:07.400
<v Speaker 1>within the commercial real estate market or even residential. Just quickly,

0:30:08.360 --> 0:30:11.480
<v Speaker 1>we're still like industrial for a number of reasons. Uh,

0:30:11.680 --> 0:30:14.680
<v Speaker 1>the man is clearly greater than supply there and the

0:30:14.760 --> 0:30:17.360
<v Speaker 1>demand drivers of the growth and e commerce generally speaking,

0:30:17.720 --> 0:30:20.760
<v Speaker 1>and it's not just it's factors to Amazon or Shopify,

0:30:20.840 --> 0:30:24.000
<v Speaker 1>it's also the traditional players like Walmart and Target, you know,

0:30:24.080 --> 0:30:28.000
<v Speaker 1>really emphasizing delivering the goods the consumer in a shorter time,

0:30:28.640 --> 0:30:32.960
<v Speaker 1>and the backup in the ports has put more pressure,

0:30:33.160 --> 0:30:35.760
<v Speaker 1>more emphasis on getting the goods into the warehouses, so

0:30:35.920 --> 0:30:38.160
<v Speaker 1>these retailers can control the desk in a little better.

0:30:38.240 --> 0:30:40.440
<v Speaker 1>All right, Listen, Steve, thanks so much for joining us.

0:30:40.480 --> 0:30:44.640
<v Speaker 1>Steve Brown, Senior portfolio manager, American Century Investments. Thanks for

0:30:44.680 --> 0:30:47.840
<v Speaker 1>listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes,

0:30:47.840 --> 0:30:50.640
<v Speaker 1>SoundCloud or Bloomberg dot com, and you can also listen

0:30:50.640 --> 0:30:53.320
<v Speaker 1>to our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio,

0:30:53.440 --> 0:30:56.200
<v Speaker 1>or watch us on YouTube. Sarch to Bloomberg Global News