WEBVTT - Make it Too Tough to Swallow. 

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<v Speaker 1>We're joined by Josh Rogan, global opinions columnist with the

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<v Speaker 1>Washington Post, author of a terrific book, Chaos under Heaven,

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<v Speaker 1>Trump She in the Battle for the twenty first Century.

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<v Speaker 1>Speaking of Trump She and battles, Josha, Welcome, how are you.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's talk about it.

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<v Speaker 2>Hey, guys, great to be back with you.

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<v Speaker 1>So let's talk about Taiwan and the stakes involved, because

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<v Speaker 1>there's been a lot of talk, well for decades and

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<v Speaker 1>certainly more recently about does the US defend Taiwan, etc.

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<v Speaker 1>What's Chinese China's timetable? Let's start with what would it

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<v Speaker 1>look like to the world economy if China made a

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<v Speaker 1>serious military move on Taiwan.

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<v Speaker 2>Right, Well, it's in the news, of course, because President

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<v Speaker 2>Trump went to China, met with Jijingpang and then said,

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<v Speaker 2>I'm not so sure I'm going to sell Taiwan the

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<v Speaker 2>arms that we promised we were going to sell them.

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<v Speaker 2>We're sent to shockwave through the region, especially through Taiwan,

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<v Speaker 2>because without those US arms, the chance of deterring, much

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<v Speaker 2>less repelling any sort of Chinese invasion for the timeese

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<v Speaker 2>goes way way down. So that's not great, okay. But

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<v Speaker 2>the question that you ask, is the right one. What

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<v Speaker 2>happens if they actually try it? And you know, the

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<v Speaker 2>main quite determinant is whether or not we help them.

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<v Speaker 2>And you know, would that American president in that moment

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<v Speaker 2>press that button and send US troops or US ships

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<v Speaker 2>or US bombs to help the time when you stop

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<v Speaker 2>the Chinese invasion? And when I asked President Trump about

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<v Speaker 2>that when reporting for my book, he was very clear.

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<v Speaker 2>He said, We're nine thousand miles away, China's two feet away.

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<v Speaker 2>If they attack, there isn't an effing thing we can

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<v Speaker 2>do about it. That's what he said. Okay, so he's

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<v Speaker 2>not very enthused about the idea of intervening on Taiwanean

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<v Speaker 2>and he doesn't say that, but that's the idea, And

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<v Speaker 2>what does that mean. That means essentially, if the Chinese attack,

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<v Speaker 2>the Taiwanese would get crushed in a second. Without our help,

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<v Speaker 2>they would get rushed in a second. And after that

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<v Speaker 2>a number of scenarios can play out, all of them bad.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, in the best case scenario, China controls not

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<v Speaker 2>only that the taiwan straight, we're fifty percent of the

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<v Speaker 2>world shipping.

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<v Speaker 3>Goes through it or later, did you say fifty five, Yes.

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<v Speaker 2>Fifty percent of the world shipping goes through that when

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<v Speaker 2>one way or another needs that depends on the Taiwan

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<v Speaker 2>Straight and that's a lot. And then the ninety percent

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<v Speaker 2>of the world's most advanced semiconductors are made in Taiwan,

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<v Speaker 2>all the Nvidia stuff, all of it. It's actually manufacturing

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<v Speaker 2>in Taiwan, most of it. Anyway, that's pretty bad if

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<v Speaker 2>China controls that, and then think about the rest of

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<v Speaker 2>the region. You've got Japan, think of or South Korea.

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<v Speaker 2>All of those countries would immediately realize that they have

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<v Speaker 2>no choice but to arm themselves to the Tieths because

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<v Speaker 2>America is not coming, and the entire region just becomes

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<v Speaker 2>a powder care forever. That's kind of like the best

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<v Speaker 2>case scenario. The worst case scenario is there's an actual

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<v Speaker 2>war over Taiwan, and that would immediately invelove, the Japanese,

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<v Speaker 2>the North Koreans, maybe now we're talking nuclear weapons, and

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<v Speaker 2>then it just gets worse and worse.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, the best best case scenario, of course, as you know,

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<v Speaker 3>is China's too scared to try it because they're so

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<v Speaker 3>certain that that we and the rest of the world

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<v Speaker 3>would fight on Taiwan's behalf, but not exactly sending that

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<v Speaker 3>message right now.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, that's right. The whole idea of the policy has

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<v Speaker 2>been for many decades is that we make it so

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<v Speaker 2>hard that they don't try it. That every day Hugien

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<v Speaker 2>Ping wakes up, he looks across this training he says,

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<v Speaker 2>not today, it's going to be too difficult today. And

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<v Speaker 2>the truth of the matter is that that balance of

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<v Speaker 2>power between China and Taiwan and his friends is moving

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<v Speaker 2>in the direction of China's advantage every single day. China's

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<v Speaker 2>building the largest military build up in the history of

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<v Speaker 2>the world. Hundreds of nuclear weapons silos were those for

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<v Speaker 2>you know, a massive landing, invasion, cyber warfare, internet warfare,

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<v Speaker 2>cognitive warfare. They're messing with Taiwani's politics, They're messing with

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<v Speaker 2>their elections, they're messing with their media, they're messing with

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<v Speaker 2>their minds on a constant basis all day along. And

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<v Speaker 2>that's not good. Okay, We're and so in order for

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<v Speaker 2>the United States and its friends and allies to keep

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<v Speaker 2>that balance up so that Taiwan teams like too tough

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<v Speaker 2>to eat, you know, like too difficult to swallow, you

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<v Speaker 2>know whatever, you want to call it, we would have

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<v Speaker 2>to do a lot more, and we're not doing a

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<v Speaker 2>lot more. So that's what that's really the most worrying

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<v Speaker 2>thing is not what would happen on the day of

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<v Speaker 2>the attack, but like every single day that China gains

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<v Speaker 2>an advantage actually, in my opinion, makes the situation, along

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<v Speaker 2>with dangerous interesting.

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<v Speaker 1>Talking to Joshua A. Rogan, Global Opinions columnists for The

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<v Speaker 1>Washington Post, Josha, I've said that one thing restraining she

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<v Speaker 1>is that China is so entirely dependent on exports. A

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<v Speaker 1>gigantic shock to the world economy would be enormously damaging

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<v Speaker 1>to them too. That's at least helped delay you know

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<v Speaker 1>what might be inevitable. Agreed, disagree? Expand on that your thoughts.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, no, I think that's exactly right. The best scenario

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<v Speaker 2>for Jiugien thing is that he takes Taiwan without firing

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<v Speaker 2>a shot. You know, look at what happened in Hong Kong.

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<v Speaker 2>They never attacked Hong Kong. They just suffocated it. They

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<v Speaker 2>just messed with it, messed with the people there, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>clamped down as much as they could and eventually strangled

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<v Speaker 2>the democracy and freedom out of Hong Kong and it

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<v Speaker 2>worked and they never had to fire a shot. That's

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<v Speaker 2>the idea. I think that's what he's going to try

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<v Speaker 2>to do first. I don't That's why I don't think

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<v Speaker 2>a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is coming in twenty twenty seven.

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<v Speaker 2>I think maybe they could be able to do it,

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<v Speaker 2>but chi Jin King's going to try best he can

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<v Speaker 2>to mess with Taiwan so much that maybe the Taiwanese

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<v Speaker 2>get so you know, battered down, that they fold, or

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<v Speaker 2>maybe they elect someone who's pro China because he messes

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<v Speaker 2>with the other people so much. He's definitely going to

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<v Speaker 2>try that. But I think in twenty twenty eight, when

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<v Speaker 2>the Taiwanese make their next presidential election, if they choose

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<v Speaker 2>someone like they have now, someone who doesn't want the

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<v Speaker 2>Chinese to take over Taiwan because gus what most Tiwhanese

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<v Speaker 2>don't want the Chinese to take over Taiwan, I think

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<v Speaker 2>that's when chi Jin King might realize that the military

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<v Speaker 2>and economic risks might be worth it for him.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I'm glad you're somewhat optimistic and very theory. I'm

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<v Speaker 3>glad you're somewhat optimistic. It's not going to happen in

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<v Speaker 3>the next year. But are are we not dealing in reality?

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<v Speaker 3>At some point I realize that if China takes Taiwan,

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<v Speaker 3>we live in a completely different world than all of

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<v Speaker 3>us have lived in our whole lives. But yeah, as

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<v Speaker 3>China grows into an economic superpower, military superpower, and they

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<v Speaker 3>got at island right off their coast, is it realistic

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<v Speaker 3>to think that the world's not going to keep them

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<v Speaker 3>from taking it?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I mean it's a good question. I think that

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<v Speaker 2>twenty three million Taiwanese people are not going to want

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<v Speaker 2>to be ruled by the Chinese Communist Party, And if

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<v Speaker 2>we let them just get swallowed up by the Chinese

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<v Speaker 2>Communist Party, that's really bad for any other country in

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<v Speaker 2>the world that lives next to a psychotic dictatorship that

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<v Speaker 2>wants to take it over. I mean, look around the world.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, the cause of freedom and de oos is

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<v Speaker 2>not really doing that well at the moment. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>the autocrats are on the marsh now, the Ukrainians are

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<v Speaker 2>fighting back. That's great. You know, hopefully someday the Iranian

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<v Speaker 2>people will get another chance to throw off their government.

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<v Speaker 2>That's great. But right now, yeah, a lot of people

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<v Speaker 2>around the country are like, hey, it looks pretty bleek

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<v Speaker 2>for the Taiwanese. But here's the thing. You know, people

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<v Speaker 2>do not actually want to live on their knees, and

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<v Speaker 2>they don't actually subjugate themselves to that kind of rule willingly.

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<v Speaker 2>They tend to resist. Now sometimes they lose, but never

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<v Speaker 2>discount the fact that people don't want to live on

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<v Speaker 2>their knees. And really the only thing that we can

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<v Speaker 2>do is to support those people who don't want to

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<v Speaker 2>live on their knees. And no, it's not determined yet.

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<v Speaker 2>China could win in that country. I don't know if

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<v Speaker 2>you've ever been there. It's beautiful, the people are lovely,

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<v Speaker 2>the food's amazing. It would be a damn shame if

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<v Speaker 2>it fell into Beijing's arms, because that would be a

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<v Speaker 2>tragedy for all of those people and for all of

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<v Speaker 2>the other people around the world who look at some

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<v Speaker 2>sort of evil dictatorship on their border and be like, oh,

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<v Speaker 2>I really don't want to get swallowed up by those guys. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>My response to what Jack said, which is one hundred

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<v Speaker 1>percent true, would be that you've just got to make

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<v Speaker 1>it as expensive or difficult as possible for as long

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<v Speaker 1>as possible and hope things change for the better on

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<v Speaker 1>one front or another. Which brings us to China's enormous

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<v Speaker 1>demographic and economic challenges that are going on right now.

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<v Speaker 1>We won't roll all of them out for you, but

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<v Speaker 1>they have some serious economic problems going on. How is

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<v Speaker 1>that going to a factor in josh any idea.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's important to talk about because China is not

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<v Speaker 2>ten feet tall. They do have a lot of problems.

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<v Speaker 2>But you know, at the same time, we have to

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<v Speaker 2>realize that it's going to be the largest country with

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<v Speaker 2>the largest economy and maybe even the largest military in

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<v Speaker 2>the region for the rest of our lives. So they're

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<v Speaker 2>going to continue to have problems. Their problems don't affect

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<v Speaker 2>them the same way our problems affect us because they

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<v Speaker 2>don't have things like elections, you know what I mean.

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<v Speaker 2>If they have some sort of like crisis in the

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<v Speaker 2>banking or real estate sector, they just fudge it all

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<v Speaker 2>because it's all a corrupt economy anyway. So, yeah, they

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<v Speaker 2>have problems, and we should, my view, try to maximize

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<v Speaker 2>our advantages and cause more problems for them, because they're

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<v Speaker 2>out to harm us. You know. In the end, China's

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<v Speaker 2>goal is not just to take Taiwan, but it's to

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<v Speaker 2>become the most powerful country in the world, and that

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<v Speaker 2>means our disadvantage. So it's not just about Taiwan. But yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>they have real vulnerabilities. To my mind, we should, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>exploit those vulnerabilities and then use that to slow their

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<v Speaker 2>rise so that we can maintain our leadership in the world,

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<v Speaker 2>because that's better for us and better for the world.

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<v Speaker 2>But you know, it's just not going that well at

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<v Speaker 2>the moment. For being honest.

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<v Speaker 3>So President Trump met with President She last week. President

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<v Speaker 3>She's meeting with Vladimir Putin today. And I know you're

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<v Speaker 3>aware of this quote. The caught on a hot mic

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<v Speaker 3>quote from three years ago when President She was talking

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<v Speaker 3>to Vladimir Putin and said, and I think this is

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<v Speaker 3>one of the most important quotes of my lifetime. President

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<v Speaker 3>She said, there are changes happening, the likes of which

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<v Speaker 3>we haven't seen for one hundred years. Let's drive those

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<v Speaker 3>changes together. Putin said, I agree. What did that mean?

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<v Speaker 3>And do they still believe that? And what do you

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<v Speaker 3>think they're going to be talking about today?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I agree with you. It's one of the most

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<v Speaker 2>important things that I've heard said in a very long time.

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<v Speaker 2>And what he's saying is something that I think is proved,

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<v Speaker 2>which is that you know, the international world order or

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<v Speaker 2>whatever you want to call it, that maintained relative peace

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<v Speaker 2>and security and in my opinion ushered in the greatest

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<v Speaker 2>period of prosperity for America and in the world in

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<v Speaker 2>history since World War Two is breaking down. That's pretty obvious.

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<v Speaker 2>Whatever it is, the multilateral institutions, people were, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>disadvantaged by the inequities of globalization. All of the grievances,

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<v Speaker 2>some of which contributed to the rise of Trump and

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<v Speaker 2>some of which you know are just sort of the

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<v Speaker 2>baked into the corruption of the system. All those grievances

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<v Speaker 2>are real. But the question is, okay, what do we

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<v Speaker 2>do now? And if we're not going to have that

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<v Speaker 2>whole system, which you know has some good parts and

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<v Speaker 2>some mistakes were made, for sure, and if we're going

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<v Speaker 2>to replace that, what are we going to replace it with?

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<v Speaker 2>The to my mind, whatever we replace it with probably

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<v Speaker 2>shouldn't be decided by jiujungpingg and Vladimir Putin. That's my position.

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<v Speaker 2>Call me old fashioned, you know, but if you are

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<v Speaker 2>like the new world system is we're going to pick

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<v Speaker 2>what it is. I'm against that. I think the Americans

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<v Speaker 2>should pick what it is and our allies, maybe Japan

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<v Speaker 2>and the Europeans too, and you know whoever else is

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<v Speaker 2>on board with us. But if they, I don't think

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<v Speaker 2>it would be good for us.

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<v Speaker 1>No, oh my god, Amen to that, brother. Josh Rogan,

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<v Speaker 1>Global opinions calumnists for The Washington Post and again author

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<v Speaker 1>of Chaos under Heaven Trumpshee in the Battle for the

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<v Speaker 1>twenty first Century. Josh, always so thought provoking. Thanks a

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<v Speaker 1>million for the time, Really.

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<v Speaker 2>Enjoyed it anytime.

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<v Speaker 3>What a smart guy. And that quote is terrific. That

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<v Speaker 3>quote that I've read out how many times on the

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<v Speaker 3>show gives me chills. Actually, it is one of the

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<v Speaker 3>most important things uttered this.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm glad you made note of that. You can't remember

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<v Speaker 1>what you had for lunch yesterday, but man, you've you

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<v Speaker 1>have absolutely internalized that one. And it's it is a

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<v Speaker 1>block bustle, it's huge. It's an old timer Armstrong and

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<v Speaker 1>Getty