Speaker 1: We're joined by Josh Rogan, global opinions columnist with the
Speaker 1: Washington Post, author of a terrific book, Chaos under Heaven,
Speaker 1: Trump She in the Battle for the twenty first Century.
Speaker 1: Speaking of Trump She and battles, Josha, Welcome, how are you.
Speaker 1: Let's talk about it.
Speaker 2: Hey, guys, great to be back with you.
Speaker 1: So let's talk about Taiwan and the stakes involved, because
Speaker 1: there's been a lot of talk, well for decades and
Speaker 1: certainly more recently about does the US defend Taiwan, etc.
Speaker 1: What's Chinese China's timetable? Let's start with what would it
Speaker 1: look like to the world economy if China made a
Speaker 1: serious military move on Taiwan.
Speaker 2: Right, Well, it's in the news, of course, because President
Speaker 2: Trump went to China, met with Jijingpang and then said,
Speaker 2: I'm not so sure I'm going to sell Taiwan the
Speaker 2: arms that we promised we were going to sell them.
Speaker 2: We're sent to shockwave through the region, especially through Taiwan,
Speaker 2: because without those US arms, the chance of deterring, much
Speaker 2: less repelling any sort of Chinese invasion for the timeese
Speaker 2: goes way way down. So that's not great, okay. But
Speaker 2: the question that you ask, is the right one. What
Speaker 2: happens if they actually try it? And you know, the
Speaker 2: main quite determinant is whether or not we help them.
Speaker 2: And you know, would that American president in that moment
Speaker 2: press that button and send US troops or US ships
Speaker 2: or US bombs to help the time when you stop
Speaker 2: the Chinese invasion? And when I asked President Trump about
Speaker 2: that when reporting for my book, he was very clear.
Speaker 2: He said, We're nine thousand miles away, China's two feet away.
Speaker 2: If they attack, there isn't an effing thing we can
Speaker 2: do about it. That's what he said. Okay, so he's
Speaker 2: not very enthused about the idea of intervening on Taiwanean
Speaker 2: and he doesn't say that, but that's the idea, And
Speaker 2: what does that mean. That means essentially, if the Chinese attack,
Speaker 2: the Taiwanese would get crushed in a second. Without our help,
Speaker 2: they would get rushed in a second. And after that
Speaker 2: a number of scenarios can play out, all of them bad.
Speaker 2: You know, in the best case scenario, China controls not
Speaker 2: only that the taiwan straight, we're fifty percent of the
Speaker 2: world shipping.
Speaker 3: Goes through it or later, did you say fifty five, Yes.
Speaker 2: Fifty percent of the world shipping goes through that when
Speaker 2: one way or another needs that depends on the Taiwan
Speaker 2: Straight and that's a lot. And then the ninety percent
Speaker 2: of the world's most advanced semiconductors are made in Taiwan,
Speaker 2: all the Nvidia stuff, all of it. It's actually manufacturing
Speaker 2: in Taiwan, most of it. Anyway, that's pretty bad if
Speaker 2: China controls that, and then think about the rest of
Speaker 2: the region. You've got Japan, think of or South Korea.
Speaker 2: All of those countries would immediately realize that they have
Speaker 2: no choice but to arm themselves to the Tieths because
Speaker 2: America is not coming, and the entire region just becomes
Speaker 2: a powder care forever. That's kind of like the best
Speaker 2: case scenario. The worst case scenario is there's an actual
Speaker 2: war over Taiwan, and that would immediately invelove, the Japanese,
Speaker 2: the North Koreans, maybe now we're talking nuclear weapons, and
Speaker 2: then it just gets worse and worse.
Speaker 3: Well, the best best case scenario, of course, as you know,
Speaker 3: is China's too scared to try it because they're so
Speaker 3: certain that that we and the rest of the world
Speaker 3: would fight on Taiwan's behalf, but not exactly sending that
Speaker 3: message right now.
Speaker 2: Well, that's right. The whole idea of the policy has
Speaker 2: been for many decades is that we make it so
Speaker 2: hard that they don't try it. That every day Hugien
Speaker 2: Ping wakes up, he looks across this training he says,
Speaker 2: not today, it's going to be too difficult today. And
Speaker 2: the truth of the matter is that that balance of
Speaker 2: power between China and Taiwan and his friends is moving
Speaker 2: in the direction of China's advantage every single day. China's
Speaker 2: building the largest military build up in the history of
Speaker 2: the world. Hundreds of nuclear weapons silos were those for
Speaker 2: you know, a massive landing, invasion, cyber warfare, internet warfare,
Speaker 2: cognitive warfare. They're messing with Taiwani's politics, They're messing with
Speaker 2: their elections, they're messing with their media, they're messing with
Speaker 2: their minds on a constant basis all day along. And
Speaker 2: that's not good. Okay, We're and so in order for
Speaker 2: the United States and its friends and allies to keep
Speaker 2: that balance up so that Taiwan teams like too tough
Speaker 2: to eat, you know, like too difficult to swallow, you
Speaker 2: know whatever, you want to call it, we would have
Speaker 2: to do a lot more, and we're not doing a
Speaker 2: lot more. So that's what that's really the most worrying
Speaker 2: thing is not what would happen on the day of
Speaker 2: the attack, but like every single day that China gains
Speaker 2: an advantage actually, in my opinion, makes the situation, along
Speaker 2: with dangerous interesting.
Speaker 1: Talking to Joshua A. Rogan, Global Opinions columnists for The
Speaker 1: Washington Post, Josha, I've said that one thing restraining she
Speaker 1: is that China is so entirely dependent on exports. A
Speaker 1: gigantic shock to the world economy would be enormously damaging
Speaker 1: to them too. That's at least helped delay you know
Speaker 1: what might be inevitable. Agreed, disagree? Expand on that your thoughts.
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I think that's exactly right. The best scenario
Speaker 2: for Jiugien thing is that he takes Taiwan without firing
Speaker 2: a shot. You know, look at what happened in Hong Kong.
Speaker 2: They never attacked Hong Kong. They just suffocated it. They
Speaker 2: just messed with it, messed with the people there, you know,
Speaker 2: clamped down as much as they could and eventually strangled
Speaker 2: the democracy and freedom out of Hong Kong and it
Speaker 2: worked and they never had to fire a shot. That's
Speaker 2: the idea. I think that's what he's going to try
Speaker 2: to do first. I don't That's why I don't think
Speaker 2: a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is coming in twenty twenty seven.
Speaker 2: I think maybe they could be able to do it,
Speaker 2: but chi Jin King's going to try best he can
Speaker 2: to mess with Taiwan so much that maybe the Taiwanese
Speaker 2: get so you know, battered down, that they fold, or
Speaker 2: maybe they elect someone who's pro China because he messes
Speaker 2: with the other people so much. He's definitely going to
Speaker 2: try that. But I think in twenty twenty eight, when
Speaker 2: the Taiwanese make their next presidential election, if they choose
Speaker 2: someone like they have now, someone who doesn't want the
Speaker 2: Chinese to take over Taiwan because gus what most Tiwhanese
Speaker 2: don't want the Chinese to take over Taiwan, I think
Speaker 2: that's when chi Jin King might realize that the military
Speaker 2: and economic risks might be worth it for him.
Speaker 3: Well, I'm glad you're somewhat optimistic and very theory. I'm
Speaker 3: glad you're somewhat optimistic. It's not going to happen in
Speaker 3: the next year. But are are we not dealing in reality?
Speaker 3: At some point I realize that if China takes Taiwan,
Speaker 3: we live in a completely different world than all of
Speaker 3: us have lived in our whole lives. But yeah, as
Speaker 3: China grows into an economic superpower, military superpower, and they
Speaker 3: got at island right off their coast, is it realistic
Speaker 3: to think that the world's not going to keep them
Speaker 3: from taking it?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's a good question. I think that
Speaker 2: twenty three million Taiwanese people are not going to want
Speaker 2: to be ruled by the Chinese Communist Party, And if
Speaker 2: we let them just get swallowed up by the Chinese
Speaker 2: Communist Party, that's really bad for any other country in
Speaker 2: the world that lives next to a psychotic dictatorship that
Speaker 2: wants to take it over. I mean, look around the world.
Speaker 2: You know, the cause of freedom and de oos is
Speaker 2: not really doing that well at the moment. You know,
Speaker 2: the autocrats are on the marsh now, the Ukrainians are
Speaker 2: fighting back. That's great. You know, hopefully someday the Iranian
Speaker 2: people will get another chance to throw off their government.
Speaker 2: That's great. But right now, yeah, a lot of people
Speaker 2: around the country are like, hey, it looks pretty bleek
Speaker 2: for the Taiwanese. But here's the thing. You know, people
Speaker 2: do not actually want to live on their knees, and
Speaker 2: they don't actually subjugate themselves to that kind of rule willingly.
Speaker 2: They tend to resist. Now sometimes they lose, but never
Speaker 2: discount the fact that people don't want to live on
Speaker 2: their knees. And really the only thing that we can
Speaker 2: do is to support those people who don't want to
Speaker 2: live on their knees. And no, it's not determined yet.
Speaker 2: China could win in that country. I don't know if
Speaker 2: you've ever been there. It's beautiful, the people are lovely,
Speaker 2: the food's amazing. It would be a damn shame if
Speaker 2: it fell into Beijing's arms, because that would be a
Speaker 2: tragedy for all of those people and for all of
Speaker 2: the other people around the world who look at some
Speaker 2: sort of evil dictatorship on their border and be like, oh,
Speaker 2: I really don't want to get swallowed up by those guys. Yeah.
Speaker 1: My response to what Jack said, which is one hundred
Speaker 1: percent true, would be that you've just got to make
Speaker 1: it as expensive or difficult as possible for as long
Speaker 1: as possible and hope things change for the better on
Speaker 1: one front or another. Which brings us to China's enormous
Speaker 1: demographic and economic challenges that are going on right now.
Speaker 1: We won't roll all of them out for you, but
Speaker 1: they have some serious economic problems going on. How is
Speaker 1: that going to a factor in josh any idea.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's important to talk about because China is not
Speaker 2: ten feet tall. They do have a lot of problems.
Speaker 2: But you know, at the same time, we have to
Speaker 2: realize that it's going to be the largest country with
Speaker 2: the largest economy and maybe even the largest military in
Speaker 2: the region for the rest of our lives. So they're
Speaker 2: going to continue to have problems. Their problems don't affect
Speaker 2: them the same way our problems affect us because they
Speaker 2: don't have things like elections, you know what I mean.
Speaker 2: If they have some sort of like crisis in the
Speaker 2: banking or real estate sector, they just fudge it all
Speaker 2: because it's all a corrupt economy anyway. So, yeah, they
Speaker 2: have problems, and we should, my view, try to maximize
Speaker 2: our advantages and cause more problems for them, because they're
Speaker 2: out to harm us. You know. In the end, China's
Speaker 2: goal is not just to take Taiwan, but it's to
Speaker 2: become the most powerful country in the world, and that
Speaker 2: means our disadvantage. So it's not just about Taiwan. But yeah,
Speaker 2: they have real vulnerabilities. To my mind, we should, you know,
Speaker 2: exploit those vulnerabilities and then use that to slow their
Speaker 2: rise so that we can maintain our leadership in the world,
Speaker 2: because that's better for us and better for the world.
Speaker 2: But you know, it's just not going that well at
Speaker 2: the moment. For being honest.
Speaker 3: So President Trump met with President She last week. President
Speaker 3: She's meeting with Vladimir Putin today. And I know you're
Speaker 3: aware of this quote. The caught on a hot mic
Speaker 3: quote from three years ago when President She was talking
Speaker 3: to Vladimir Putin and said, and I think this is
Speaker 3: one of the most important quotes of my lifetime. President
Speaker 3: She said, there are changes happening, the likes of which
Speaker 3: we haven't seen for one hundred years. Let's drive those
Speaker 3: changes together. Putin said, I agree. What did that mean?
Speaker 3: And do they still believe that? And what do you
Speaker 3: think they're going to be talking about today?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree with you. It's one of the most
Speaker 2: important things that I've heard said in a very long time.
Speaker 2: And what he's saying is something that I think is proved,
Speaker 2: which is that you know, the international world order or
Speaker 2: whatever you want to call it, that maintained relative peace
Speaker 2: and security and in my opinion ushered in the greatest
Speaker 2: period of prosperity for America and in the world in
Speaker 2: history since World War Two is breaking down. That's pretty obvious.
Speaker 2: Whatever it is, the multilateral institutions, people were, you know,
Speaker 2: disadvantaged by the inequities of globalization. All of the grievances,
Speaker 2: some of which contributed to the rise of Trump and
Speaker 2: some of which you know are just sort of the
Speaker 2: baked into the corruption of the system. All those grievances
Speaker 2: are real. But the question is, okay, what do we
Speaker 2: do now? And if we're not going to have that
Speaker 2: whole system, which you know has some good parts and
Speaker 2: some mistakes were made, for sure, and if we're going
Speaker 2: to replace that, what are we going to replace it with?
Speaker 2: The to my mind, whatever we replace it with probably
Speaker 2: shouldn't be decided by jiujungpingg and Vladimir Putin. That's my position.
Speaker 2: Call me old fashioned, you know, but if you are
Speaker 2: like the new world system is we're going to pick
Speaker 2: what it is. I'm against that. I think the Americans
Speaker 2: should pick what it is and our allies, maybe Japan
Speaker 2: and the Europeans too, and you know whoever else is
Speaker 2: on board with us. But if they, I don't think
Speaker 2: it would be good for us.
Speaker 1: No, oh my god, Amen to that, brother. Josh Rogan,
Speaker 1: Global opinions calumnists for The Washington Post and again author
Speaker 1: of Chaos under Heaven Trumpshee in the Battle for the
Speaker 1: twenty first Century. Josh, always so thought provoking. Thanks a
Speaker 1: million for the time, Really.
Speaker 2: Enjoyed it anytime.
Speaker 3: What a smart guy. And that quote is terrific. That
Speaker 3: quote that I've read out how many times on the
Speaker 3: show gives me chills. Actually, it is one of the
Speaker 3: most important things uttered this.
Speaker 1: I'm glad you made note of that. You can't remember
Speaker 1: what you had for lunch yesterday, but man, you've you
Speaker 1: have absolutely internalized that one. And it's it is a
Speaker 1: block bustle, it's huge. It's an old timer Armstrong and
Speaker 1: Getty