1 00:00:00,680 --> 00:00:05,120 Speaker 1: Episode four Thumbs and the Dike. We have had too 2 00:00:05,240 --> 00:00:08,280 Speaker 1: much anarchy in our city, the mayor says, and with 3 00:00:08,400 --> 00:00:11,159 Speaker 1: the county sheriff and city police chief behind him, he 4 00:00:11,240 --> 00:00:14,600 Speaker 1: lays out the city's aggressive plan to sweep the encampments 5 00:00:14,840 --> 00:00:17,799 Speaker 1: and strike back at criminals hiding in the guise of 6 00:00:17,800 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: a social justice movement. He's talking about you, Tom, Aaron, 7 00:00:22,079 --> 00:00:24,239 Speaker 1: and a growing group of friends and allies who spent 8 00:00:24,320 --> 00:00:28,080 Speaker 1: most of October and November doing eviction resistance. It all 9 00:00:28,120 --> 00:00:30,680 Speaker 1: started with the right wing vigilantes who carried out a 10 00:00:30,720 --> 00:00:33,920 Speaker 1: series of drive by attacks on the camps. At first, 11 00:00:33,960 --> 00:00:37,559 Speaker 1: they just lobbed firecrackers, but that soon evolved into emptying 12 00:00:37,600 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 1: handguns into tents. In response, the camps organized roving defensive teams. 13 00:00:43,159 --> 00:00:46,120 Speaker 1: There were a couple of gunfights and one death, although 14 00:00:46,120 --> 00:00:48,960 Speaker 1: you weren't around for any of those. By the time 15 00:00:48,960 --> 00:00:51,800 Speaker 1: the attack stopped, you had a large, organized group of 16 00:00:51,840 --> 00:00:55,680 Speaker 1: people used to taking direct action. From that point, making 17 00:00:55,680 --> 00:00:59,560 Speaker 1: the jump to proactively stopping evictions wasn't such a big deal. 18 00:01:00,440 --> 00:01:02,760 Speaker 1: Half the landlords in your part of town had jumped 19 00:01:02,760 --> 00:01:06,120 Speaker 1: ship for other cities with less intense climates. Many of 20 00:01:06,160 --> 00:01:09,319 Speaker 1: their properties were sold to banks, or large rental companies. 21 00:01:09,880 --> 00:01:12,559 Speaker 1: Unemployment in your city hit as high as thirty percent 22 00:01:12,640 --> 00:01:15,560 Speaker 1: by some counts, and more people nationwide are out on 23 00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:17,480 Speaker 1: the street than there have ever been at any point 24 00:01:17,480 --> 00:01:20,319 Speaker 1: in your life, at least where you live, though people 25 00:01:20,360 --> 00:01:23,800 Speaker 1: have options. There are now five camps hosting more than 26 00:01:23,880 --> 00:01:26,560 Speaker 1: five thousand people. Two of them are based out of 27 00:01:26,640 --> 00:01:30,039 Speaker 1: large apartment complexes, two were in city parks, and the 28 00:01:30,080 --> 00:01:32,639 Speaker 1: fifth is made from several square blocks of the city 29 00:01:32,640 --> 00:01:36,039 Speaker 1: that had an eviction rate topping eighty percent. Some of 30 00:01:36,080 --> 00:01:38,760 Speaker 1: the people joining collectives are asking for help are folks 31 00:01:38,800 --> 00:01:42,960 Speaker 1: who months ago surely supported the cops cracking down on encampments. 32 00:01:43,440 --> 00:01:46,920 Speaker 1: Now they're on your side, driven by desperation. You try 33 00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:49,240 Speaker 1: not to let that piss you off. What matters is 34 00:01:49,240 --> 00:01:52,760 Speaker 1: that you're in this together now, and aggressive eviction offense 35 00:01:52,800 --> 00:01:55,000 Speaker 1: has kept hundreds of your neighbors in their homes and 36 00:01:55,080 --> 00:01:58,720 Speaker 1: helped the population in the camps stay manageable. But of 37 00:01:58,760 --> 00:02:01,720 Speaker 1: course the landlords aren't happy with that, and local business 38 00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:06,000 Speaker 1: owners keep blaming the camps for graffiti and hampering the recovery. 39 00:02:06,240 --> 00:02:08,400 Speaker 1: You spend enough time online to know this ship is 40 00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:11,840 Speaker 1: happening all around the country and eviction defense action in 41 00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:14,920 Speaker 1: Portland turned into a gun battle. Activists in l A 42 00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:17,720 Speaker 1: responded to the tear gassing of an encampment by bombing 43 00:02:17,720 --> 00:02:20,320 Speaker 1: an l A p D van, and worst of all, 44 00:02:20,560 --> 00:02:23,960 Speaker 1: the NYPD killed three activists while clearing out a squat 45 00:02:24,000 --> 00:02:28,200 Speaker 1: in Brooklyn. Every day, two different digital collectives allied with 46 00:02:28,240 --> 00:02:31,240 Speaker 1: the encampments gather not just news of different protests around 47 00:02:31,240 --> 00:02:35,960 Speaker 1: the country, but tactical information and after action reports. You, Tom, 48 00:02:36,000 --> 00:02:37,680 Speaker 1: and all of the other hundreds of people in the 49 00:02:37,720 --> 00:02:41,160 Speaker 1: Defensive Committee have been taking notes. You've welded together cal 50 00:02:41,160 --> 00:02:44,360 Speaker 1: trips and dote vehicle barricades, rigged up paint cannons to 51 00:02:44,400 --> 00:02:47,399 Speaker 1: coat police car windshields, and experimented with a dozen other 52 00:02:47,440 --> 00:02:51,440 Speaker 1: tactics to protect the main camps. This is bigger than 53 00:02:51,480 --> 00:02:55,079 Speaker 1: your hometown and your little movement. The federal government has 54 00:02:55,080 --> 00:02:58,080 Speaker 1: responded to the absolute societal free fall of the last 55 00:02:58,160 --> 00:03:02,239 Speaker 1: year by blaming anarchists in government, extremists, and an addiction 56 00:03:02,320 --> 00:03:06,239 Speaker 1: to government entitlements. Disaster funding keeps being slashed, which is 57 00:03:06,280 --> 00:03:09,040 Speaker 1: where a lot of this started anyway, But the President 58 00:03:09,120 --> 00:03:12,440 Speaker 1: just announced a raft of emergency police funding using money 59 00:03:12,480 --> 00:03:17,280 Speaker 1: the last administration had remarked for climate resiliency projects. You've 60 00:03:17,320 --> 00:03:19,640 Speaker 1: spent the last few days going about your duties with 61 00:03:19,680 --> 00:03:22,400 Speaker 1: a sense of doom hanging over your head. It's not 62 00:03:22,480 --> 00:03:25,880 Speaker 1: just the imminent government crackdown. The food situation has gotten 63 00:03:25,919 --> 00:03:29,919 Speaker 1: increasingly tenuous. Wheat crops saw less than half their normal harvest. 64 00:03:30,080 --> 00:03:34,000 Speaker 1: Even potatoes dropped significantly. Several of the camps have started 65 00:03:34,040 --> 00:03:37,640 Speaker 1: permaculture projects in greenhouses, but no one is growing anything 66 00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:40,480 Speaker 1: like what you need to feed all these people. Donations 67 00:03:40,520 --> 00:03:43,720 Speaker 1: helped for a while, but everyone's tapped. For the last 68 00:03:43,760 --> 00:03:45,720 Speaker 1: few weeks. You've been able to close the gap by 69 00:03:45,720 --> 00:03:48,760 Speaker 1: sending out dumpster diving teams into the neighborhoods with stocked 70 00:03:48,760 --> 00:03:52,520 Speaker 1: grocery stores and functioning restaurants. One of your neighbors works 71 00:03:52,520 --> 00:03:55,520 Speaker 1: in an Amazon warehouse, and he provided Tom with information 72 00:03:55,560 --> 00:03:57,400 Speaker 1: on how to break in and where to find the 73 00:03:57,480 --> 00:04:00,480 Speaker 1: dried goods. All this has helped, but the police have 74 00:04:00,520 --> 00:04:03,520 Speaker 1: grown increasingly aware of your efforts. People in the rich 75 00:04:03,560 --> 00:04:06,400 Speaker 1: neighborhoods have been using a community defense app to warn 76 00:04:06,440 --> 00:04:10,200 Speaker 1: the police about criminals stealing food. Mark, a guy you 77 00:04:10,320 --> 00:04:12,800 Speaker 1: sort of knew from a few past eviction defenses, was 78 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:16,240 Speaker 1: shot dead outside of a safeway two nights back. We 79 00:04:16,279 --> 00:04:19,000 Speaker 1: can't keep going on like this, Tom says, And he 80 00:04:19,040 --> 00:04:21,120 Speaker 1: tells you he's been reaching out to an old marine 81 00:04:21,120 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 1: buddy of his who lives on a farm a couple 82 00:04:23,080 --> 00:04:25,960 Speaker 1: hours out of town. They've got food, but their grid 83 00:04:26,000 --> 00:04:28,040 Speaker 1: is still fucked from the summer, and half the small 84 00:04:28,080 --> 00:04:30,360 Speaker 1: farms out there have lost so much production that they're 85 00:04:30,360 --> 00:04:33,320 Speaker 1: on the edge of eviction themselves. We have electricians, we 86 00:04:33,320 --> 00:04:35,800 Speaker 1: can get equipment, and we've got manpower people who will 87 00:04:35,839 --> 00:04:38,360 Speaker 1: help harvest and stand up against the sheriff's department if 88 00:04:38,360 --> 00:04:41,719 Speaker 1: there's an eviction. You'd be lying if you said Tom's 89 00:04:41,760 --> 00:04:44,640 Speaker 1: suggestion didn't scare you a little bit. By bit, the 90 00:04:44,720 --> 00:04:48,360 Speaker 1: daily grind of survival, building resiliency and protecting your community 91 00:04:48,400 --> 00:04:52,520 Speaker 1: has grown to feel more seditious. That seems a bit strong. 92 00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:55,280 Speaker 1: But now you're talking about treating fighters for food to 93 00:04:55,320 --> 00:04:59,680 Speaker 1: defend a farming town against the police. That's nuts. Fuck it. 94 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:02,400 Speaker 1: You tell Tom, let's get the others together and talk 95 00:05:02,440 --> 00:05:11,880 Speaker 1: about it. Seems like a good idea to me. In night, 96 00:05:12,279 --> 00:05:16,000 Speaker 1: climate scientist James Hansen testified to the Senate and claimed 97 00:05:16,040 --> 00:05:18,800 Speaker 1: for the first time that human influence on warning was 98 00:05:18,880 --> 00:05:23,320 Speaker 1: discernible and separate from natural variability. James was not the 99 00:05:23,360 --> 00:05:26,600 Speaker 1: first expert to warn about what we now call climate change, 100 00:05:26,960 --> 00:05:28,640 Speaker 1: but he was the first one to get up in 101 00:05:28,720 --> 00:05:30,760 Speaker 1: front of the country and give a warning in such 102 00:05:30,760 --> 00:05:33,479 Speaker 1: a clear and unequivocal way at a time when many 103 00:05:33,520 --> 00:05:36,800 Speaker 1: of his fellows would him and haw about natural variability. 104 00:05:37,600 --> 00:05:40,560 Speaker 1: At the time, there was tremendous debate, fueled by donations 105 00:05:40,560 --> 00:05:43,440 Speaker 1: from the fossil fuel industry and politicians eager for a 106 00:05:43,480 --> 00:05:46,560 Speaker 1: culture war, about whether or not Hansen was a doomsayer 107 00:05:47,040 --> 00:05:50,279 Speaker 1: or a prophet. We now know that he was, if anything, 108 00:05:50,440 --> 00:05:53,760 Speaker 1: too optimistic. The warming trends we have seen put us 109 00:05:53,839 --> 00:05:57,960 Speaker 1: roughly thirty years ahead of his most dire predictions. It's 110 00:05:57,960 --> 00:06:01,479 Speaker 1: worth digging into exactly how has happened part of the 111 00:06:01,560 --> 00:06:04,960 Speaker 1: story you already know. Companies like Exxon spent hundreds of 112 00:06:05,000 --> 00:06:07,800 Speaker 1: millions of dollars over the last forty years funding think 113 00:06:07,839 --> 00:06:11,159 Speaker 1: tanks and propaganda campaigns designed to so doubt over the 114 00:06:11,240 --> 00:06:15,880 Speaker 1: reality of climate change or global warming. As a child 115 00:06:15,920 --> 00:06:18,320 Speaker 1: growing up in the Bible Belt, nearly everything I learned 116 00:06:18,360 --> 00:06:22,000 Speaker 1: about climate change was filtered through this lens. The picture 117 00:06:22,120 --> 00:06:25,040 Speaker 1: painted by media pundits and best selling authors like Michael 118 00:06:25,040 --> 00:06:28,800 Speaker 1: Crichton was that scientists were at worst corrupt shills pushing 119 00:06:28,839 --> 00:06:33,240 Speaker 1: an environmentalist agenda, and at best alarmist's ginning up panic 120 00:06:33,320 --> 00:06:37,800 Speaker 1: over minor fluctuations in climate. Paul Erlick came up quite 121 00:06:37,800 --> 00:06:40,880 Speaker 1: often in this context. In the late nineteen sixties, he 122 00:06:40,920 --> 00:06:44,000 Speaker 1: was an entomologist at Stanford University who released a book 123 00:06:44,000 --> 00:06:48,680 Speaker 1: called The Population Bomb. Its first sentence was, the battle 124 00:06:48,760 --> 00:06:52,360 Speaker 1: to feed all of humanity is over. Paul predicted that 125 00:06:52,440 --> 00:06:55,040 Speaker 1: in the nineteen seventies, hundreds of millions of people were 126 00:06:55,080 --> 00:06:57,800 Speaker 1: going to starve to death due to overpopulation, and there 127 00:06:57,839 --> 00:07:01,120 Speaker 1: was nothing anyone could do to prevent it. The Population 128 00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:04,320 Speaker 1: Bomb sparked a global panic and an anti population growth 129 00:07:04,360 --> 00:07:07,800 Speaker 1: movement that led to repressive laws around the world. It 130 00:07:07,880 --> 00:07:10,920 Speaker 1: also didn't come true, thanks in large part to the 131 00:07:10,960 --> 00:07:14,720 Speaker 1: green Revolution sparked by Agronomius. To Norman Borlog's work, there 132 00:07:14,840 --> 00:07:18,720 Speaker 1: was no mass starvation. Borlog has been rightfully lauded for 133 00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:22,360 Speaker 1: creating new hybrid seeds that vastly increased the amount of 134 00:07:22,400 --> 00:07:25,440 Speaker 1: calories farmers in places like India were able to produce. 135 00:07:26,080 --> 00:07:28,280 Speaker 1: His work is credited with saving as many as a 136 00:07:28,280 --> 00:07:31,480 Speaker 1: billion lives. I first learned about him on Penn and 137 00:07:31,520 --> 00:07:35,240 Speaker 1: Teller's Bullshit, a libertarian themed science he show that was 138 00:07:35,320 --> 00:07:37,840 Speaker 1: popular in the early aughts for the same reason as 139 00:07:37,880 --> 00:07:41,760 Speaker 1: South Park. Both shows managed to be anti liberal without 140 00:07:41,800 --> 00:07:45,120 Speaker 1: being right wing in the traditional sense. For kids raised 141 00:07:45,120 --> 00:07:48,120 Speaker 1: conservative but disillusioned with the Republican Party due to the 142 00:07:48,120 --> 00:07:52,120 Speaker 1: Iraq War, these shows provided seemingly clever arguments for why 143 00:07:52,200 --> 00:07:54,680 Speaker 1: both sides were dumb and the smartest thing to do 144 00:07:54,800 --> 00:07:57,200 Speaker 1: was make fun of them. This is not a bad 145 00:07:57,240 --> 00:08:00,600 Speaker 1: thing under all circumstances. If you reflexively to like both 146 00:08:00,640 --> 00:08:03,360 Speaker 1: the Republican and Democratic parties, you will be right more 147 00:08:03,400 --> 00:08:05,800 Speaker 1: often than you were wrong. But in the early at 148 00:08:05,920 --> 00:08:10,240 Speaker 1: some prominent Democrats, most significantly al Gore, did try to 149 00:08:10,360 --> 00:08:15,000 Speaker 1: warn people about climate change. These folks were framed as alarmists, 150 00:08:15,120 --> 00:08:17,560 Speaker 1: like Paul Erlick. Penn and Teller were one of a 151 00:08:17,640 --> 00:08:21,600 Speaker 1: number of popular voices that specifically used Borlog's example to 152 00:08:21,680 --> 00:08:26,320 Speaker 1: attack environmentalists worried about global warming. We'd better develop and 153 00:08:27,400 --> 00:08:32,800 Speaker 1: ever improved science and technology, including the new by technology 154 00:08:33,160 --> 00:08:38,599 Speaker 1: to produce the foodia needed for the world to day. Unfortunately, 155 00:08:38,600 --> 00:08:42,280 Speaker 1: the humanitarian efforts of people like Dr Borlog are undermined 156 00:08:42,320 --> 00:08:46,559 Speaker 1: by Greenpeace and other assholes. Now, Pinjillette has somewhat come 157 00:08:46,600 --> 00:08:49,200 Speaker 1: around on climate change in recent days, but even in 158 00:08:49,240 --> 00:08:52,679 Speaker 1: twenty nineteen, in this interview for the Origins podcast, he's 159 00:08:52,679 --> 00:08:55,679 Speaker 1: stuck to the same line about al Gore being an alarmist. 160 00:08:56,160 --> 00:08:59,800 Speaker 1: I think that there's no way you can deny that 161 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:06,160 Speaker 1: is climate change. I've completely changed on that, although completely 162 00:09:06,320 --> 00:09:09,920 Speaker 1: changed is a little bit confusing because I never went 163 00:09:10,000 --> 00:09:15,079 Speaker 1: beyond I don't know what bothers me about. The climate 164 00:09:15,160 --> 00:09:21,320 Speaker 1: change thing was a great disservice done by al Gore 165 00:09:22,320 --> 00:09:26,360 Speaker 1: of exaggerating. We now know that not only did Algor 166 00:09:26,520 --> 00:09:29,120 Speaker 1: not exaggerate, but it would actually be fair to attack 167 00:09:29,200 --> 00:09:31,560 Speaker 1: him for painting far too rosie a picture of what 168 00:09:31,679 --> 00:09:34,960 Speaker 1: climate change would cause and the adaptations are society would 169 00:09:34,960 --> 00:09:37,920 Speaker 1: need to adopt in order to mitigate it. I'm harping 170 00:09:37,920 --> 00:09:40,680 Speaker 1: on Penn and Teller in particular because this exact line 171 00:09:40,720 --> 00:09:42,880 Speaker 1: of thinking has led to the most durable sort of 172 00:09:42,880 --> 00:09:46,280 Speaker 1: climate denial I've seen in my own life. Earlier this year, 173 00:09:46,360 --> 00:09:49,080 Speaker 1: my father and I endured the most severe snowstorm in 174 00:09:49,120 --> 00:09:52,760 Speaker 1: Texas history together. When I tried to talk about climate change. 175 00:09:52,800 --> 00:09:55,400 Speaker 1: He brought up Paul Erlick and the fact that even 176 00:09:55,440 --> 00:09:58,720 Speaker 1: if climate change is as bad as they say, some 177 00:09:58,840 --> 00:10:02,120 Speaker 1: Norman Borlog will along with a scientific solution that will 178 00:10:02,160 --> 00:10:05,520 Speaker 1: save us. There is no sign of this so far. 179 00:10:06,040 --> 00:10:09,680 Speaker 1: Carbon capture technology, which works by capturing carbon before it 180 00:10:09,720 --> 00:10:13,199 Speaker 1: can reach the atmosphere, has proved to be extremely disappointing. 181 00:10:13,600 --> 00:10:16,839 Speaker 1: Only about point one percent of annual global emissions from 182 00:10:16,840 --> 00:10:20,400 Speaker 1: fossil fuels are captured at present, and of the carbon 183 00:10:20,440 --> 00:10:23,080 Speaker 1: captured to date has been used to extract more oil 184 00:10:23,160 --> 00:10:26,040 Speaker 1: from wells by pumping that carbon into the ground to 185 00:10:26,120 --> 00:10:30,240 Speaker 1: force oil out. But still Boorlog shadow looms large over 186 00:10:30,240 --> 00:10:44,720 Speaker 1: the climate question. Today's episode is about the different paths 187 00:10:44,760 --> 00:10:47,320 Speaker 1: to mitigation and adaptation that we might see in the 188 00:10:47,400 --> 00:10:50,319 Speaker 1: future as the damage caused by climate change becomes too 189 00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:53,800 Speaker 1: great to ignore. Weight and hope for a super genius 190 00:10:53,840 --> 00:10:57,520 Speaker 1: is certainly the path some individuals and probably some politicians 191 00:10:57,559 --> 00:11:00,880 Speaker 1: will continue to take. The myth of the Leonaire inventor 192 00:11:01,080 --> 00:11:03,839 Speaker 1: and the personality colts around men like Elon Musk and 193 00:11:03,880 --> 00:11:06,840 Speaker 1: their own little green projects has made this a popular 194 00:11:06,880 --> 00:11:09,880 Speaker 1: school of thought over the last decade. The good news 195 00:11:10,000 --> 00:11:12,480 Speaker 1: is that we've already reached a point of calamity great 196 00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:15,520 Speaker 1: enough that support for this sort of solution is probably 197 00:11:15,559 --> 00:11:19,160 Speaker 1: past its peak. On the day I write this chapter, July, 198 00:11:20,040 --> 00:11:22,719 Speaker 1: the Guardian has just published an article warning that yet 199 00:11:22,720 --> 00:11:25,320 Speaker 1: another heat dome is set to settle over the entire 200 00:11:25,400 --> 00:11:29,920 Speaker 1: continental United States. The article quoted Michael Verner, a senior 201 00:11:29,960 --> 00:11:34,959 Speaker 1: scientist at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, quote, you expect 202 00:11:34,960 --> 00:11:37,559 Speaker 1: hotter heat waves with climate change, but the estimates may 203 00:11:37,600 --> 00:11:40,960 Speaker 1: have been overly conservative. With the Pacific Northwest heat wave, 204 00:11:41,080 --> 00:11:44,760 Speaker 1: you conclude the event would almost be impossible without climate change, 205 00:11:45,000 --> 00:11:48,160 Speaker 1: But in a straightforward statistical analysis from before this summer, 206 00:11:48,200 --> 00:11:51,280 Speaker 1: you'd also include it would be impossible with climate change too. 207 00:11:51,720 --> 00:11:56,760 Speaker 1: That is problematic because the event happened. For years, climate 208 00:11:56,800 --> 00:11:59,839 Speaker 1: scientists have been attacked as alarmist, Yet the growing can 209 00:12:00,000 --> 00:12:03,360 Speaker 1: census is that they were actually too conservative with their warnings. 210 00:12:03,840 --> 00:12:07,400 Speaker 1: The situation was more severe than most reports portrayed. Before 211 00:12:07,440 --> 00:12:10,040 Speaker 1: we go further, it's worth looking at why this was. 212 00:12:10,480 --> 00:12:13,280 Speaker 1: I found a good scientific American article from two thousand 213 00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:16,880 Speaker 1: nineteen by the authors of a book called Discerning Experts, 214 00:12:17,200 --> 00:12:20,559 Speaker 1: which analyze the methods by which experts had assessed environmental 215 00:12:20,640 --> 00:12:24,360 Speaker 1: damage in order to provide policy recommendations. They found a 216 00:12:24,400 --> 00:12:29,120 Speaker 1: consistent tendency by scientists to underestimate the severity of threats 217 00:12:29,120 --> 00:12:32,920 Speaker 1: and the rapidity with which they might unfold quote. Among 218 00:12:32,960 --> 00:12:35,680 Speaker 1: the factors that appear to contribute to underestimation is the 219 00:12:35,720 --> 00:12:39,880 Speaker 1: perceived need for consensus, or what we might label univocality, 220 00:12:40,240 --> 00:12:43,080 Speaker 1: the felt need to speak in a single voice. Many 221 00:12:43,160 --> 00:12:46,880 Speaker 1: scientists worry that if disagreement has publicly aired, government officials 222 00:12:46,920 --> 00:12:49,800 Speaker 1: will conflate differences of opinion with ignorance and use this 223 00:12:49,840 --> 00:12:53,320 Speaker 1: as justification for an action. Others worry that even if 224 00:12:53,360 --> 00:12:56,040 Speaker 1: policymakers want to act, they will find it difficult to 225 00:12:56,080 --> 00:12:59,280 Speaker 1: do so if scientists fail to send an unambiguous message 226 00:12:59,640 --> 00:13:02,120 Speaker 1: there or they will actively seek to find their common 227 00:13:02,160 --> 00:13:05,280 Speaker 1: ground and focus on areas of agreement. In some cases, 228 00:13:05,280 --> 00:13:07,679 Speaker 1: there will only put forward conclusions on which they can 229 00:13:07,720 --> 00:13:11,440 Speaker 1: all agree. How does this lead to underestimation? Consider a 230 00:13:11,440 --> 00:13:14,120 Speaker 1: case in which most scientists think that the correct answer 231 00:13:14,120 --> 00:13:16,200 Speaker 1: to a question is in the range of one to ten, 232 00:13:16,640 --> 00:13:18,400 Speaker 1: but some belief that it could be as high as 233 00:13:18,400 --> 00:13:21,280 Speaker 1: one hundred. In such a case, everyone will agree that 234 00:13:21,320 --> 00:13:23,480 Speaker 1: it is at least one to ten, but not everyone 235 00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:26,240 Speaker 1: will agree that it could be as high as one hundred. Therefore, 236 00:13:26,320 --> 00:13:29,080 Speaker 1: the area of agreement is one to ten, and this 237 00:13:29,160 --> 00:13:32,040 Speaker 1: is reported as the consensus view. Wherever there is a 238 00:13:32,160 --> 00:13:35,080 Speaker 1: range of possible outcomes that includes along a high end 239 00:13:35,200 --> 00:13:38,840 Speaker 1: tail of probability, the area of overlap will necessarily lie 240 00:13:38,920 --> 00:13:43,040 Speaker 1: at or near the low end. The other cause of problems, 241 00:13:43,120 --> 00:13:46,120 Speaker 1: they conclude was a common mental model practiced by the 242 00:13:46,200 --> 00:13:49,239 Speaker 1: media as well as by scientists, which tends to unconsciously 243 00:13:49,240 --> 00:13:52,720 Speaker 1: consider facts to be something which all reasonable people should 244 00:13:52,760 --> 00:13:55,520 Speaker 1: be able to agree upon. If there is a mass 245 00:13:55,520 --> 00:13:58,600 Speaker 1: disagreement over the conclusions of a report, then it must 246 00:13:58,640 --> 00:14:02,280 Speaker 1: be because those conclusions are based on opinion rather than facts. 247 00:14:03,160 --> 00:14:06,520 Speaker 1: And the third reason for underestimation involves a very simple 248 00:14:06,520 --> 00:14:10,760 Speaker 1: worry of a reputation. In good science, being wrong shouldn't 249 00:14:10,760 --> 00:14:12,840 Speaker 1: be bad for your career, as a large part of 250 00:14:12,840 --> 00:14:16,000 Speaker 1: the discipline is making hypotheses which are either proven or 251 00:14:16,040 --> 00:14:19,760 Speaker 1: disproven by testing. But when we're talking about a field 252 00:14:19,760 --> 00:14:22,720 Speaker 1: as politicized as climate science, going too far in a 253 00:14:22,760 --> 00:14:26,120 Speaker 1: prediction gets you labeled an alarmist by media talking heads. 254 00:14:27,000 --> 00:14:31,720 Speaker 1: This leads to an understandable trend to conservatism and climate predictions. 255 00:14:32,000 --> 00:14:35,640 Speaker 1: All these factors have already caused huge problems for our society, 256 00:14:35,840 --> 00:14:38,520 Speaker 1: and as we move forward towards trying to adapt, these 257 00:14:38,560 --> 00:14:43,080 Speaker 1: trends will, if not disrupted, caused further calamity. In the 258 00:14:43,200 --> 00:14:46,920 Speaker 1: nineteen fifties, fighter pilot Colonel John Boyd coined the term 259 00:14:47,080 --> 00:14:50,440 Speaker 1: ODA loop to describe the cycle by which human beings 260 00:14:50,440 --> 00:14:54,280 Speaker 1: and organizations make decisions at the operational level during military 261 00:14:54,360 --> 00:15:00,520 Speaker 1: campaigns ODA stands for observe, orient, decide, act, and Colonel 262 00:15:00,560 --> 00:15:03,720 Speaker 1: Boyd's terminology has been applied in a dizzying variety of 263 00:15:03,720 --> 00:15:07,920 Speaker 1: situations since, from training troops for combat to training corporations 264 00:15:07,920 --> 00:15:11,560 Speaker 1: for cyber security. The ODA loop helps explain how an 265 00:15:11,560 --> 00:15:14,800 Speaker 1: agile and creative opponent can disrupt and defeat a seemingly 266 00:15:14,880 --> 00:15:18,480 Speaker 1: much more powerful enemy. The basic idea is that if 267 00:15:18,480 --> 00:15:20,960 Speaker 1: you can break any part of your enemy's ODE loop, 268 00:15:21,080 --> 00:15:23,680 Speaker 1: you can stop them from properly reacting in a given 269 00:15:23,720 --> 00:15:28,320 Speaker 1: situation and eventually defeat them. Stop the enemy from observing 270 00:15:28,320 --> 00:15:31,920 Speaker 1: you and they can't orient themselves to your attack, decide 271 00:15:31,920 --> 00:15:34,960 Speaker 1: how to respond to you or take action, disrupt the 272 00:15:35,040 --> 00:15:37,640 Speaker 1: enemy's ability to make decisions, and even if they see 273 00:15:37,640 --> 00:15:40,440 Speaker 1: the problem, they won't be able to act on it 274 00:15:40,480 --> 00:15:43,840 Speaker 1: for years. Our ability to properly observe and orient ourselves 275 00:15:43,880 --> 00:15:46,280 Speaker 1: to the problem of climate change has been hampered by 276 00:15:46,280 --> 00:15:49,080 Speaker 1: all the things we just discussed. As I type this, 277 00:15:49,240 --> 00:15:52,400 Speaker 1: wildfires are burning across the width of Canada. Subways in 278 00:15:52,480 --> 00:15:56,000 Speaker 1: multiple major world cities have become watery tombs. The scope 279 00:15:56,000 --> 00:15:58,680 Speaker 1: of the issue is finally beyond a reasonable doubt in 280 00:15:58,720 --> 00:16:02,360 Speaker 1: almost everyone's mind, yet we still find ourselves disrupted when 281 00:16:02,360 --> 00:16:05,520 Speaker 1: we reach d There will come a time when the 282 00:16:05,560 --> 00:16:08,440 Speaker 1: governments of the world will decide and then act with 283 00:16:08,600 --> 00:16:11,120 Speaker 1: much more of a concerted plan than we've seen before. 284 00:16:11,600 --> 00:16:14,880 Speaker 1: When it comes to predicting what that decision, or more realistically, 285 00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:18,040 Speaker 1: those decisions might be, the best book I found is 286 00:16:18,080 --> 00:16:22,600 Speaker 1: Climate Leviathan by Joel Wainwright and joff Man. The term 287 00:16:22,680 --> 00:16:26,320 Speaker 1: Leviathan comes from a book by Hobbes, The Philosopher not 288 00:16:26,440 --> 00:16:29,120 Speaker 1: the Tiger, which argues that peace and unity can only 289 00:16:29,120 --> 00:16:32,440 Speaker 1: be achieved by the creation of a sovereign power responsible 290 00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:35,800 Speaker 1: for protecting the commonwealth and given absolute authority to do so. 291 00:16:36,440 --> 00:16:39,400 Speaker 1: It's essentially an argument for a big, all powerful state 292 00:16:39,520 --> 00:16:43,160 Speaker 1: or sovereign to keep everything nice. Wainwright and Man's book 293 00:16:43,240 --> 00:16:45,680 Speaker 1: stems from the premise that most people, out of fear 294 00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:49,120 Speaker 1: or desperation, will probably back some sort of leviathan as 295 00:16:49,160 --> 00:16:52,800 Speaker 1: an answer to climate change. Quote. We contend that the 296 00:16:52,880 --> 00:16:56,000 Speaker 1: drive to defend capitalist social relations will putch the world 297 00:16:56,080 --> 00:17:00,920 Speaker 1: towards climate leviathan, namely adaptation projects to allow capitalist eletes 298 00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:05,200 Speaker 1: to stabilize their position amidst planetary crises. This scenario, we 299 00:17:05,320 --> 00:17:07,720 Speaker 1: pose it implies a shift in the character and form 300 00:17:07,760 --> 00:17:11,720 Speaker 1: of sovereignty, the likely emergence of planetary sovereignty defined by 301 00:17:11,720 --> 00:17:14,520 Speaker 1: an exception proclaimed in the name of preserving life on Earth. 302 00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:17,560 Speaker 1: We are not suggesting that sovereignty will be characterized by 303 00:17:17,600 --> 00:17:21,240 Speaker 1: the quasi monarchical rule of a single person, but we recognize, 304 00:17:21,320 --> 00:17:24,080 Speaker 1: as some suggest, Hobbs himself and even Carl Schmidt at 305 00:17:24,119 --> 00:17:27,760 Speaker 1: least after ninety two, also recognized that it is almost 306 00:17:27,760 --> 00:17:30,960 Speaker 1: certainly to be exercised by a collection of powers coordinated 307 00:17:31,000 --> 00:17:33,720 Speaker 1: to save the planet and to determine what measures are 308 00:17:33,720 --> 00:17:36,600 Speaker 1: necessary and what and who must be sacrificed in the 309 00:17:36,640 --> 00:17:41,240 Speaker 1: interests of life on Earth. Wainwright and Man envision a 310 00:17:41,240 --> 00:17:45,440 Speaker 1: few different types of possible leviathan one elucidated above is 311 00:17:45,480 --> 00:17:48,919 Speaker 1: a neoliberal, capitalist leviathan. Think of it as an extension 312 00:17:48,960 --> 00:17:51,760 Speaker 1: of the Western States and the attitudes we've seen so far, 313 00:17:52,359 --> 00:17:55,120 Speaker 1: the smiling face of someone like Joe Biden talking about 314 00:17:55,119 --> 00:17:58,080 Speaker 1: the importance of using paper bags while giving Exxon tax 315 00:17:58,080 --> 00:18:01,479 Speaker 1: breaks so they can invest in cloud seating technology. One 316 00:18:01,560 --> 00:18:03,919 Speaker 1: of the most frightening things about this possibility is that 317 00:18:03,960 --> 00:18:07,280 Speaker 1: the very same corporate actors responsible for fighting any action 318 00:18:07,320 --> 00:18:10,320 Speaker 1: on climate change up until now will surely find a 319 00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:14,320 Speaker 1: key space for themselves partaking in state funded mitigation efforts. 320 00:18:14,840 --> 00:18:18,280 Speaker 1: Think of Jeff Bezos suggesting that polluting industrial buildings be 321 00:18:18,359 --> 00:18:21,600 Speaker 1: moved into space, or imagine Chevron using some of their 322 00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:25,000 Speaker 1: vast fortune to invent snow piercer style technology to blanket 323 00:18:25,040 --> 00:18:29,159 Speaker 1: the atmosphere and reduce warming. These possibilities are frightening because 324 00:18:29,200 --> 00:18:32,520 Speaker 1: any solutions dreamed up under this regime are likely to 325 00:18:32,520 --> 00:18:35,440 Speaker 1: be as selfish and ill considered as the long campaign 326 00:18:35,480 --> 00:18:38,560 Speaker 1: to deny the reality of climate change. In this future, 327 00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:42,000 Speaker 1: the architects of our present misery and shrine themselves forever 328 00:18:42,080 --> 00:18:45,760 Speaker 1: as our protectors. Wainwright and Man also envision what they 329 00:18:45,800 --> 00:18:50,879 Speaker 1: somewhat cheekily call climate Mao an anti capitalist state centered Leviathan, 330 00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:54,880 Speaker 1: possibly based around China or a block of Southeast Asian nations. 331 00:18:55,280 --> 00:18:57,800 Speaker 1: While Climate Leviathan would be an attempt to maintain the 332 00:18:57,840 --> 00:19:01,720 Speaker 1: present capitalist world order while stabilising the environment, Climate Mao 333 00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:04,480 Speaker 1: was a quasi revolutionary attempt to replace it with a 334 00:19:04,520 --> 00:19:07,959 Speaker 1: system just as centralized, but not based around the moneyed 335 00:19:07,960 --> 00:19:11,400 Speaker 1: interests that got us here from the book Climate Leviathan. 336 00:19:12,400 --> 00:19:15,880 Speaker 1: Even today, when an increasingly non Maoist Chinese state invokes 337 00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:19,879 Speaker 1: its full regulatory authority, it can achieve political feats unimaginable 338 00:19:19,880 --> 00:19:23,280 Speaker 1: in liberal democracy. Perhaps the most notable instance of state 339 00:19:23,280 --> 00:19:26,280 Speaker 1: coordinated climate authority is the matter in which Beijing's air 340 00:19:26,359 --> 00:19:29,080 Speaker 1: quality was re engineered during the two thousand eight Olympics. 341 00:19:29,400 --> 00:19:32,520 Speaker 1: Flowers potted all over the city, traffic barred, trees planted 342 00:19:32,560 --> 00:19:35,640 Speaker 1: in the desert, and factories and power plants closed, all 343 00:19:35,680 --> 00:19:39,200 Speaker 1: to successfully blew the skies for the games. Another effect 344 00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:41,400 Speaker 1: of this power is the way in which the Chinese 345 00:19:41,440 --> 00:19:44,880 Speaker 1: state effectively killed General Motors gas guzzling Hummer in early 346 00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:47,639 Speaker 1: two thousand ten, when it blocked the division's sale to 347 00:19:47,760 --> 00:19:51,040 Speaker 1: Sichuan Tenjong Heavy Industrial Machinery due to the vehicles of 348 00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:54,120 Speaker 1: missions levels. One might also point to the Great Green 349 00:19:54,200 --> 00:19:58,840 Speaker 1: Wall against Desertification, which if successfully completed, will cross four thousand, 350 00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:02,639 Speaker 1: four eighty meters of northern China, and various tree planting 351 00:20:02,680 --> 00:20:07,600 Speaker 1: programs that will purportedly give the country forest cover. By 352 00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:10,080 Speaker 1: and since vowing in the summer of two thousand ten 353 00:20:10,160 --> 00:20:13,040 Speaker 1: to apply an iron hand to the task of reducing emissions, 354 00:20:13,240 --> 00:20:16,320 Speaker 1: the Communist Party closed more than two thousand steel mills 355 00:20:16,320 --> 00:20:19,400 Speaker 1: and other carbon emitting factories by March two thousand eleven. 356 00:20:19,840 --> 00:20:23,280 Speaker 1: In mid two thousand sixteen, the government announced new dietary 357 00:20:23,320 --> 00:20:26,800 Speaker 1: guidelines encouraging people to consume no more than seventy five 358 00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:30,560 Speaker 1: grams of meat per day. Reducing meat consumption was justified 359 00:20:30,560 --> 00:20:34,160 Speaker 1: on health and environmental grounds and hailed as by climate activists. 360 00:20:34,560 --> 00:20:38,120 Speaker 1: Such policies foretell the possibility of a climate MAO were 361 00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:41,040 Speaker 1: China to become a global hedgemon and also change under 362 00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:44,680 Speaker 1: revolutionary pressures. To be clear, that is a very big if. 363 00:20:57,119 --> 00:21:00,480 Speaker 1: If Leviathan is an attempt to maintain the capitalest world 364 00:21:00,600 --> 00:21:03,600 Speaker 1: ordered in an ego friendly manner, behemoth by far the 365 00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:07,439 Speaker 1: darkest potential future is an acknowledgment that the situation is 366 00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:10,560 Speaker 1: well and truly fucked. The damage is done, and all 367 00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:12,879 Speaker 1: that can be done is grab as much power and 368 00:21:12,920 --> 00:21:15,919 Speaker 1: as many resources as possible and concentrate them in the 369 00:21:15,960 --> 00:21:19,080 Speaker 1: hands of a chosen few, be it a specific nation 370 00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:23,040 Speaker 1: or perhaps an ethno state. Behemoth is the fascist state 371 00:21:23,119 --> 00:21:26,520 Speaker 1: solution to climate change. It's only children will be endless 372 00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:30,600 Speaker 1: resource wars. Now, these are fairly broad categories, and we 373 00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:33,800 Speaker 1: are likely to see variations of each of these archetypes attempted. 374 00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:36,639 Speaker 1: You may note my lack of enthusiasm for any of 375 00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:39,680 Speaker 1: the possibilities. This is a result of my own bias. 376 00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:42,600 Speaker 1: I am not a statist, and while Behemoth is obviously 377 00:21:42,680 --> 00:21:45,479 Speaker 1: the nightmare solution, I am not excited by either the 378 00:21:45,480 --> 00:21:49,800 Speaker 1: neoliberal climate Leviathan or climate MAO. Top down solutions to 379 00:21:49,840 --> 00:21:52,719 Speaker 1: big problems can work, clearly, but they have a nasty 380 00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:55,240 Speaker 1: tendency to crush people in order to fit them into 381 00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:58,840 Speaker 1: a system. An example of why I fear climate Leviathan 382 00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:03,200 Speaker 1: in particular came on June one, when the Los Angeles 383 00:22:03,240 --> 00:22:05,480 Speaker 1: Police Department rated the home of a man with a 384 00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:08,760 Speaker 1: significant quantity of illegal fireworks in the midst of the 385 00:22:08,800 --> 00:22:11,480 Speaker 1: deadliest fire season in living memory. The Boys at the 386 00:22:11,520 --> 00:22:13,960 Speaker 1: top decided that cops would need to crack down on 387 00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:18,440 Speaker 1: fireworks fenders. It seems logical enough from a high vantage point, 388 00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:20,840 Speaker 1: and elected leaders always like to send police in to 389 00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:23,480 Speaker 1: see ship because then they can say X pounds of 390 00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:26,680 Speaker 1: substance y was confiscated, and that makes for an easy 391 00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:29,760 Speaker 1: sound bite. But on this occasion, the l ap D 392 00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:33,359 Speaker 1: fucked up. Their technicians loaded what they thought were sixteen 393 00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:36,320 Speaker 1: point five pounds of explosives into an armored truck in 394 00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:39,600 Speaker 1: order to safely detonate it. Instead, they set off forty 395 00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:42,399 Speaker 1: two pounds, which started a chain reaction that turned the 396 00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:45,919 Speaker 1: entire armored truck into a massive I e. D. The 397 00:22:46,000 --> 00:22:49,240 Speaker 1: resulting explosion destroyed multiple homes and led to the deaths 398 00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:53,000 Speaker 1: of two people plus numerous injuries. These are the sort 399 00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:56,000 Speaker 1: of decisions we can expect from climate Leviathan, and the 400 00:22:56,040 --> 00:22:59,800 Speaker 1: sort of consequences too. In their book, Wainwright and Man 401 00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:03,040 Speaker 1: the least likely but best case scenario as something they 402 00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:06,800 Speaker 1: call climate X. This would be a decentralized, ground up 403 00:23:06,800 --> 00:23:10,679 Speaker 1: adaptation to the realities of climate change, a reorganization of 404 00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:13,919 Speaker 1: society not around the lines forced on it by some Leviathan, 405 00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:17,960 Speaker 1: but by regular people rejecting both the consumptive, destructive patterns 406 00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:20,800 Speaker 1: of old and the need for a strong dictatorial power 407 00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:24,119 Speaker 1: to envision a future for them. This is the least 408 00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:27,240 Speaker 1: likely scenario for a number of reasons. For one thing, 409 00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:30,240 Speaker 1: Climate X requires getting a large number of people to 410 00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:34,080 Speaker 1: embrace a future radically different and fundamental organization from the 411 00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:37,120 Speaker 1: world they've known. Climate MAL has to do this too, 412 00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:39,600 Speaker 1: but within the sort of strong state framework that is 413 00:23:39,640 --> 00:23:42,600 Speaker 1: at least much more familiar and thus more comfortable to 414 00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:46,119 Speaker 1: billions of people. We can envision the state taking charge 415 00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:49,080 Speaker 1: and instituting radical change much more easily than we can 416 00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:52,119 Speaker 1: imagine hundreds of millions of people making the decision to 417 00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:55,159 Speaker 1: alter their lives for the betterment of billions of strangers. 418 00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:59,159 Speaker 1: Climate Leviathan offers a very plausible set of predictions for 419 00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:01,840 Speaker 1: the different paths that are most likely, but of course 420 00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:04,119 Speaker 1: it is still not guaranteed that our nation, or other 421 00:24:04,280 --> 00:24:07,679 Speaker 1: large blocks of nations, will ever complete their climate ode 422 00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:11,760 Speaker 1: Loup Mike Davis is a historian and a social critic 423 00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:15,760 Speaker 1: with an enviable reputation for predicting the future. In nineteen 424 00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:18,920 Speaker 1: ninety he published City of Courts, an analysis of Los 425 00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:21,960 Speaker 1: Angeles that many saw as predicting the epic riots that 426 00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:25,240 Speaker 1: convulsive the city. In nineteen ninety two, his work was 427 00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:27,840 Speaker 1: respected enough within Los Angeles that the Crips and the 428 00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:30,639 Speaker 1: Bloods brought him on as an adviser to help negotiate 429 00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:36,240 Speaker 1: peacemaking deals. In nine Davis wrote Cataclysm of Fear, which 430 00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:39,639 Speaker 1: predicted the next twenty plus years of life in southern California, 431 00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:44,800 Speaker 1: with the line cataclysm has become virtually routine. In two 432 00:24:44,880 --> 00:24:47,520 Speaker 1: thousand five, he published a book on the Avian flu 433 00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:51,800 Speaker 1: as a plague of capitalism, titled The Monster Inters. Davis 434 00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:55,680 Speaker 1: quoted the influencer researcher Robert Webster saying, if a pandemic 435 00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:59,680 Speaker 1: happened today, hospital facilities would be overwhelmed and understaffed because 436 00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:03,280 Speaker 1: many medical personnel would be afflicted with the disease. Vaccine 437 00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:06,920 Speaker 1: production would be slow, critical community services would be immobilized. 438 00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:10,800 Speaker 1: Reserves of existing vaccines and medical equipment would be quickly depleted, 439 00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:16,360 Speaker 1: leaving most people vulnerable to infection. Sounds familiar. Permanent bio 440 00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:20,800 Speaker 1: protection against new plagues, Davis added, would require more than vaccines. 441 00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:24,359 Speaker 1: It would need the suppression of these structures of disease emergence. 442 00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:28,359 Speaker 1: The revolutionary reforms in agriculture and urban living that no 443 00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:33,760 Speaker 1: capitalist or state capitalist country whatever willingly undertake. Also, by 444 00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:36,639 Speaker 1: the way, Mike Davis predicted the two thousand eight economic 445 00:25:36,680 --> 00:25:39,840 Speaker 1: crash in an article for the Los Angeles Times, the 446 00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:41,879 Speaker 1: point is he's the kind of guy you should listen 447 00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:45,000 Speaker 1: to when he makes predictions. In two thousand ten, Mike 448 00:25:45,040 --> 00:25:47,760 Speaker 1: looked at the utter failure of international efforts to mitigate 449 00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:51,640 Speaker 1: climate change and imagined a not improbable scenario in which 450 00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:55,879 Speaker 1: mitigation would be quietly abandoned in favor of accelerated investment 451 00:25:55,920 --> 00:26:00,560 Speaker 1: and selective adaptation for Earth's first class passengers. And it's 452 00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:02,800 Speaker 1: here I might bring us briefly back to the subject 453 00:26:02,840 --> 00:26:06,399 Speaker 1: of Jeff Bezos's flight to space. An analysis by Media 454 00:26:06,440 --> 00:26:10,000 Speaker 1: Matters found that the NBC, ABC, and CBS morning shows 455 00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:13,720 Speaker 1: devoted two hundred twelve minutes to Bezos's flight. By contrast, 456 00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:16,760 Speaker 1: those same shows spent two hundred and sixty seven minutes 457 00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:21,080 Speaker 1: covering climate in all of twenty twenty. Now, rich people 458 00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:23,920 Speaker 1: flee to space isn't the likeliest solution the elites will 459 00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:26,800 Speaker 1: shoot for. It's more probable that they'd continue what they've 460 00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:30,600 Speaker 1: been doing for decades. Diverting more resources towards creating permanent 461 00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:33,320 Speaker 1: safe zones shielded from the worst of climate change and 462 00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:37,080 Speaker 1: isolated enough from population centers that their security forces can 463 00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:40,800 Speaker 1: protect them from interlopers. There will be token efforts carbon 464 00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:43,240 Speaker 1: taxes and famine relief, but on the whole, the world's 465 00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:45,400 Speaker 1: poor and much of the middle class will be abandoned 466 00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:48,640 Speaker 1: to misery and death. The only public field the powerful 467 00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:52,359 Speaker 1: will invest in his law enforcement. We've seen shades of 468 00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:56,119 Speaker 1: this already last spring, when the coronavirus started its deadly 469 00:26:56,200 --> 00:26:59,320 Speaker 1: rampage through the Western democracies. The Internet filled with a 470 00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:04,119 Speaker 1: flurry of year identical articles from Bloomberg Coronavirus escape Rich 471 00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:07,560 Speaker 1: Americans head to New Zealand, the New Yorker Doomsday prep 472 00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:11,320 Speaker 1: for the super Rich Vanity Fair inside the survivalist bunker 473 00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:14,600 Speaker 1: where some wealthy people hope to ride out coronavirus. And 474 00:27:14,720 --> 00:27:18,000 Speaker 1: from the Guardian super rich jet off to disaster bunkers 475 00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:22,040 Speaker 1: amid coronavirus outbreak. The gist of all these articles is 476 00:27:22,040 --> 00:27:24,679 Speaker 1: that the ultra wealthy have built a global system of 477 00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:27,720 Speaker 1: safe houses and bunkers in places they deemed secure in 478 00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:30,919 Speaker 1: the event of a wide variety of catastrophes. What I 479 00:27:30,960 --> 00:27:33,480 Speaker 1: find interesting about this is that their preparations are not 480 00:27:33,600 --> 00:27:36,880 Speaker 1: particularly focused in what we know does not suggest any 481 00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:39,720 Speaker 1: sort of collapse the wealthy sea coming due to the 482 00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:42,960 Speaker 1: special knowledge they have as members of the elite. Rather, 483 00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:46,160 Speaker 1: the evidence suggests they've simply fallen into the same assumption 484 00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:50,119 Speaker 1: as millions of regular people. Something terrible is on the horizon. 485 00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:54,680 Speaker 1: In two thousand seventeen, Lincoln co founder Reid Hoffmann told 486 00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:57,360 Speaker 1: The New Yorker that he estimated fifty percent of Silicon 487 00:27:57,440 --> 00:28:00,440 Speaker 1: Valley billionaires had already purchased some sort of a ocalypse 488 00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:03,720 Speaker 1: escape plan. And honestly, if you had that kind of money, 489 00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:06,600 Speaker 1: why wouldn't you? This is bleak as hell. Of course, 490 00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:10,080 Speaker 1: the individuals most responsible for encouraging and profiting from the 491 00:28:10,080 --> 00:28:13,520 Speaker 1: reckless consumption that has endangered us all abandoning society via 492 00:28:13,600 --> 00:28:17,120 Speaker 1: the most literal application of fuck you, money and history. 493 00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:19,840 Speaker 1: But when you dig into the whole story here, it's 494 00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:23,560 Speaker 1: actually somewhat optimistic, because the thing is, these people are 495 00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:26,400 Speaker 1: clearly just as terrified as the rest of us. That's 496 00:28:26,440 --> 00:28:29,000 Speaker 1: why they do things like spend one point five million 497 00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:31,320 Speaker 1: dollars a piece for a nine hundred and twenty square 498 00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:34,360 Speaker 1: foot room and a survival condo built into an underground 499 00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:37,479 Speaker 1: missile silo in Kansas. The best thing many of them 500 00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:40,080 Speaker 1: can think to do is build isolated miniatures of the 501 00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:43,480 Speaker 1: outside world. Staff it with former Navy seals and hope 502 00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:46,160 Speaker 1: for the best. These are not people who have a plan. 503 00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:48,920 Speaker 1: This was really driven home to me in a two 504 00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:52,480 Speaker 1: thousand eighteen article by Douglas Rushkoff, a media theorist and 505 00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:55,880 Speaker 1: writer whose work has been extremely influential among tech elites. 506 00:28:56,360 --> 00:28:58,520 Speaker 1: In two thousand seventeen, he was invited to what he 507 00:28:58,560 --> 00:29:01,640 Speaker 1: described as a super deluc private resort to deliver a 508 00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:06,880 Speaker 1: keynote speech on the future of technology. Quote. After I arrived, 509 00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:09,080 Speaker 1: I was ushered into what I thought was the green room, 510 00:29:09,360 --> 00:29:11,520 Speaker 1: But instead of being wired with a microphone or taken 511 00:29:11,560 --> 00:29:14,080 Speaker 1: to a stage, I sat around a playing round table 512 00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:17,840 Speaker 1: as my audience was brought to me five super wealthy guys, yes, 513 00:29:17,880 --> 00:29:20,479 Speaker 1: all men from the upper echelon of the hedge fund world. 514 00:29:20,840 --> 00:29:23,000 Speaker 1: After a bit of small talk, I realized they had 515 00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:25,240 Speaker 1: no interest in the information I had prepared about the 516 00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:28,480 Speaker 1: future of technology. They had come with questions of their own. 517 00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:31,719 Speaker 1: Those questions quickly led to the climate crisis, and they 518 00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:33,840 Speaker 1: wanted to know if New Zealand or Alaska was a 519 00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:36,800 Speaker 1: safer escape bet. One of these CEOs had just finished 520 00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:39,360 Speaker 1: building his own underground bunker system and wanted to know, 521 00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:43,040 Speaker 1: how do I maintain authority over my security force after 522 00:29:43,080 --> 00:29:47,480 Speaker 1: the event? Quote the event that was their euphemism for 523 00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:51,800 Speaker 1: the environmental collapse, social unrest, nuclear explosion, unstoppable virus, or 524 00:29:51,880 --> 00:29:55,560 Speaker 1: Mr robot hack that takes everything down. The single question 525 00:29:55,600 --> 00:29:57,959 Speaker 1: occupied us for the rest of the hour. The new 526 00:29:58,040 --> 00:30:00,560 Speaker 1: armed guards would be required to protect their compounds from 527 00:30:00,560 --> 00:30:02,719 Speaker 1: the angry mobs, but how would they pay the guards 528 00:30:02,760 --> 00:30:05,200 Speaker 1: once money was worthless? What would stop the guards from 529 00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:08,840 Speaker 1: choosing their own leader. The billionaires considered using special combination 530 00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:11,320 Speaker 1: locks on the food supply that only they knew, or 531 00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:14,360 Speaker 1: making guards where disciplinary collars of some kind in return 532 00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:17,200 Speaker 1: for their survival, or maybe building robots to serve as 533 00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:20,400 Speaker 1: guards and workers. If that technology could be developed in time. 534 00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:22,800 Speaker 1: That's when it hit me. At least as far as 535 00:30:22,800 --> 00:30:25,400 Speaker 1: these gentlemen were concerned. This was a talk about the 536 00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:29,480 Speaker 1: future of technology. Taking their cue from Elon Musk, colonizing Mars, 537 00:30:29,520 --> 00:30:32,760 Speaker 1: Peter Tile, reversing the aging process, or sam Altman and 538 00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:36,000 Speaker 1: Ray Kurz. While uploading their minds into supercomputers, they were 539 00:30:36,000 --> 00:30:38,239 Speaker 1: preparing for a digital future that had a whole lot 540 00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:40,320 Speaker 1: less to do with making the world a better place 541 00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:43,600 Speaker 1: than it did with transcending the human condition altogether and 542 00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:46,640 Speaker 1: insulating themselves from a very real and present danger of 543 00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:51,880 Speaker 1: climate change, rising sea levels, mass migrations, global pandemics, nativist panic, 544 00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:55,400 Speaker 1: and resource depletion. For them, the future of technology is 545 00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:59,840 Speaker 1: really about just one thing escape. At one point, rush 546 00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:03,080 Speaker 1: Off suggested that if these billionaires were really concerned about 547 00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:06,160 Speaker 1: the loyalty of their hired security long term, their best 548 00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:08,920 Speaker 1: bet would be to start treating those people like family. Now. 549 00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:13,240 Speaker 1: Money loses value after the event, love does not. He 550 00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:15,600 Speaker 1: also noted that if they were to use their power 551 00:31:15,640 --> 00:31:19,000 Speaker 1: and influence to extend this ethos of inclusivity more broadly 552 00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:21,960 Speaker 1: in their business practices, it might make such an event 553 00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:26,440 Speaker 1: less likely to occur. Quote, they were amused by my optimism, 554 00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:28,720 Speaker 1: but they didn't really buy it. They were not interested 555 00:31:28,760 --> 00:31:31,280 Speaker 1: in how to avoid a calamity. They're convinced we are 556 00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:33,800 Speaker 1: too far gone. For all their wealth and power, they 557 00:31:33,840 --> 00:31:37,600 Speaker 1: don't believe they can affect the future, and that right 558 00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:41,360 Speaker 1: there is why I am actually optimistic, because these people 559 00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:43,800 Speaker 1: are the enemy. We are at present engaged in a 560 00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:46,200 Speaker 1: battle to determine how the future of our species and 561 00:31:46,320 --> 00:31:49,200 Speaker 1: life on earth will look. We, and by we I 562 00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:52,320 Speaker 1: mean people who want a better, freer, healthier future for all, 563 00:31:52,520 --> 00:31:55,440 Speaker 1: have a few different enemies, but our most powerful foes 564 00:31:55,440 --> 00:31:58,680 Speaker 1: are the people currently standing atop the pyramid, fighting tooth 565 00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:01,440 Speaker 1: and nail against any change to society that reduces their 566 00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:03,960 Speaker 1: privilege and power. These men and women will go to 567 00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:07,120 Speaker 1: their graves to preserve the present power structure as long 568 00:32:07,160 --> 00:32:09,960 Speaker 1: as the rest of us go first. For decades, the 569 00:32:10,080 --> 00:32:13,680 Speaker 1: enemy has had the upper hand, using disinformation, propaganda, the 570 00:32:13,760 --> 00:32:16,080 Speaker 1: violence of the state, and an arsenal of lesser weapons. 571 00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:19,080 Speaker 1: They disrupted every attempt to build a less extractive, more 572 00:32:19,160 --> 00:32:22,680 Speaker 1: sustainable society. But now that the fires are at everyone's 573 00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:25,720 Speaker 1: back door, they have no plan beyond locking themselves away 574 00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:28,640 Speaker 1: from the consequences of the world they insisted on building. 575 00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:32,760 Speaker 1: Reality can no longer be denied, and that's disrupted their 576 00:32:32,760 --> 00:32:36,040 Speaker 1: ode loop. This means those of us on Team Better 577 00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:38,480 Speaker 1: World finally have a chance to get the upper hand. 578 00:32:38,920 --> 00:32:41,160 Speaker 1: To do that, though we're going to have to make 579 00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:42,520 Speaker 1: some decisions of our own