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Speaker 1: As Beijing seeks to broaden its iPhone ban even further

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Speaker 1: to state firms and agencies. All this just days before

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Speaker 1: the iPhone fifteen launch events set to take place next

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Speaker 1: week and named Wanderlust Whatever that means, Dan i'ves of

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Speaker 1: Webbush maintains his out perform rating and two thirty price targets,

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Speaker 1: saying this, in a worst case scenario, any China government

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Speaker 1: agency iPhone ban is way overblown, citing the band would

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Speaker 1: affect less than five hundred thousand iPhones out of roughly

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Speaker 1: forty five million expected to sell in China over the

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Speaker 1: next year. Dan ives and police to say, joins us

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Speaker 1: right now, Dan Water for to catch up with you,

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Speaker 1: Tim Cook, as you know the diplomat. He has really

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Speaker 1: navigated these issues with the US and China so well

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Speaker 1: over the years, and finally he finds himself at a

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Speaker 1: cross says, now I wander down from your perspective what

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Speaker 1: that means If it happens to Tim Kirk, surely it

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Speaker 1: can happen to anybody.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, but in my opinion, this is barks

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Speaker 2: a lot worse than bite.

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Speaker 3: I mean, in terms of all the work we've done.

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Speaker 2: We're talking five hundred thousand iPhone units and probably less

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Speaker 2: in terms of any sort of and that we've seen

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Speaker 2: with some of these government agencies, which has really been

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Speaker 2: there for the last few years. And look, I get it,

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Speaker 2: many people are gonna yell fire in a crowd theater

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Speaker 2: like theyve continue to do year of the year.

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Speaker 3: We'd be strong buyers here.

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Speaker 2: I think we're going to look back on this as

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Speaker 2: more of the opportunity rather than a time to really

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Speaker 2: say structural problems from now ahead.

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Speaker 1: For Kruper team, context perspective matters down. I understand the

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Speaker 1: numbers like you do. It makes perfect sense. But I

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Speaker 1: think what we're missing here is the signal, the optic.

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Speaker 1: So we're missing a change in mood away from foreign luxury,

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Speaker 1: US hardware, US tech Apple specifically. Are you missing that

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Speaker 1: shifting mood in China?

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Speaker 2: Look at the end of the day, Huawei right now,

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Speaker 2: two generations behind. It's essentially the GV phone, right, I

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Speaker 2: mean relative No Chinese consumer is going to go out

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Speaker 2: and go for this phone over an iPhone fifteen, which

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Speaker 2: is continues to be gold standard.

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Speaker 3: Now, Look, in terms of the coll tech war between US.

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Speaker 2: And China, no doubt the Apples has to continue to

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Speaker 2: be caught in the middle, But the tactician Cook continues

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Speaker 2: to navigate this. And also remember when you look at

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Speaker 2: fox Conn's supply chain, you're talking about the number one

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Speaker 2: employer in all of China in terms of Apple. So

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Speaker 2: I get the nervousness, but I just continue to believe

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Speaker 2: it's going to continue to be twenty percent of iPhone

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Speaker 2: and I think growth is actually going to happen and

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Speaker 2: actually market share in China rather than the opposite.

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Speaker 1: And we are talking about a communist country. Though, why

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Speaker 1: would what China believes is good for its government is

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Speaker 1: any different to what China believes is good for its people.

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Speaker 2: Because they're basically the biggest employer in China. And if

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Speaker 2: you look within Beijing especially, spend a lot of time

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Speaker 2: being around China and Asia.

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Speaker 3: It's a trophy case that Apple. That's where their production is.

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Speaker 2: And ultimately, if you look at Cook, despite Vietnam and

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Speaker 2: Indians and others, they've continued to really bet the farm

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Speaker 2: in terms of China. That hasn't changed. So this is

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Speaker 2: all a game of poker and get some of the

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Speaker 2: shots across the valley. In terms of where Huawei is,

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Speaker 2: I just don't see them shooting themselves in the foot.

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Speaker 2: That's our opinion continues to be despite your haters continuing

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Speaker 2: to hate on Apple yet again.

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Speaker 1: And you're perfectly insighted to your opinion, sir gun It's

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Speaker 1: the next week ahead of the iPhone fifteen launch. Down

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Speaker 1: here's the question for you. You always talk about that upgrade cycle,

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Speaker 1: the elusive upgrade cycle. You and I've been talking about

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Speaker 1: that for years now. At what point does that bullish

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Speaker 1: thesis become embarrassed one? At what point you just asked Dan,

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Speaker 1: why aren't they upgrading?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 2: Well, I mean, look, if you look at the last

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Speaker 2: year and a half, a lot of those upgrades have happened,

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Speaker 2: but it's as a high class problem. Because they've gained

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Speaker 2: an incremental one hundred and twenty five million users over

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Speaker 2: the last two years. Two hundred and fifty million iPhones

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Speaker 2: have not been upgrade four plus years. And if you

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Speaker 2: look at this special chip camera technology and what continues

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Speaker 2: to come out of Cupertino is the gold standard. And

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Speaker 2: that's why I believe social a lot of big carrier discounts.

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Speaker 3: This is a mini super psyched.

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Speaker 2: Despite a lot of the Bears coming out of hibernation mode,

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Speaker 2: you know after Apple's run.

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Speaker 1: It's amazing you're talking about supercycles at a time when

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Speaker 1: we've basically got no growth for the core product. Dan,

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Speaker 1: Why we've handed up to thirty times earnings for no growth?

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Speaker 3: Okay, so I continue.

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Speaker 2: First of all, when you factor in the fax, it

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Speaker 2: is growing. And then I think it's all about next

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Speaker 2: year where you're going to have mid single digit unit growth.

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Speaker 2: You have ASP growth which is actually double digits, and

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Speaker 2: its services. I think how many have missed Apple going

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Speaker 2: from hating in a trillion, despising a two trillion now

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Speaker 2: pulling their hair out three trillion.

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Speaker 3: It's a services business to some of the parts. We

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Speaker 3: believe is worth one point four to one point.

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Speaker 2: Five trillion, And I believe we sit here in the

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Speaker 2: next year, year and a half and this is on

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Speaker 2: its way to four trillion.

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Speaker 3: This is not the end, it's just the middle of

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Speaker 3: the next cycle.

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Speaker 1: We went a year to catch up. Dan, it's going

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Speaker 1: to see you as always gone into next week. Then

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Speaker 1: I has a wet bush still bullished on this name.

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Speaker 1: As you might expect,