1
00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:01,599
Speaker 1: Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here.

2
00:00:01,680 --> 00:00:05,240
Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,

3
00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:07,840
Speaker 2: and we are so excited about what that means for

4
00:00:07,880 --> 00:00:08,720
Speaker 2: the future of the show.

5
00:00:08,880 --> 00:00:10,760
Speaker 1: This is the only place where you can find honest

6
00:00:10,760 --> 00:00:13,280
Speaker 1: perspectives from the left and the right that simply does

7
00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:14,640
Speaker 1: not exist anywhere else.

8
00:00:14,720 --> 00:00:17,080
Speaker 2: So if that is something that's important to you, please

9
00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:19,599
Speaker 2: go to Breakingpoints dot com. Become a member today and

10
00:00:19,640 --> 00:00:22,800
Speaker 2: you'll get access to our full shows, unedited, ad free,

11
00:00:22,800 --> 00:00:25,600
Speaker 2: and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.

12
00:00:25,680 --> 00:00:27,560
Speaker 1: We need your help to build the future of independent

13
00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:29,920
Speaker 1: news media and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints

14
00:00:29,960 --> 00:00:33,479
Speaker 1: dot com.

15
00:00:33,640 --> 00:00:36,479
Speaker 2: So we got a bunch of political topics to dig into,

16
00:00:36,560 --> 00:00:39,120
Speaker 2: and our friend Dave Weigel from Semaphore joins us. Now

17
00:00:39,159 --> 00:00:41,000
Speaker 2: we've got some new Zoron polling, and you were just

18
00:00:41,040 --> 00:00:42,440
Speaker 2: at two very interesting conferences.

19
00:00:42,440 --> 00:00:43,199
Speaker 3: So great to see you, Davi.

20
00:00:43,280 --> 00:00:44,600
Speaker 4: Y it's good to be all the conferences.

21
00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:46,240
Speaker 3: I'm sure. I'm sure.

22
00:00:46,960 --> 00:00:49,320
Speaker 2: Let's go and put this polling New York Times pulling

23
00:00:49,479 --> 00:00:52,239
Speaker 2: on Zoron up on the screen because this is pretty interesting.

24
00:00:52,360 --> 00:00:54,200
Speaker 3: So this is the you know.

25
00:00:54,120 --> 00:00:56,160
Speaker 2: The four way race, which looks you can tell me

26
00:00:56,200 --> 00:00:57,720
Speaker 2: if this is wrong, but it looks like this is

27
00:00:57,760 --> 00:01:00,000
Speaker 2: going to be the field. Zoron with a commanding lead

28
00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:04,080
Speaker 2: forty six percent, Quoma twenty four, Curtis Leewah meeting Eric

29
00:01:04,120 --> 00:01:07,959
Speaker 2: Adams fifteen, and then nine percent for Adams. The Trump

30
00:01:07,959 --> 00:01:12,520
Speaker 2: administration reportedly was offering Adams the Saudi ambassadorship. He apparently

31
00:01:12,560 --> 00:01:14,600
Speaker 2: turned it down. Slee Was says he's in the race. Certainly,

32
00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:17,120
Speaker 2: Cuomas says he's in the race. So I think this

33
00:01:17,240 --> 00:01:19,039
Speaker 2: is what the field is going to be. They did

34
00:01:19,080 --> 00:01:21,320
Speaker 2: test the head to head just Soron versus Cuomo, and

35
00:01:21,400 --> 00:01:23,120
Speaker 2: Zorn still won, but it was a much It was

36
00:01:23,160 --> 00:01:26,000
Speaker 2: like by four points or something like that. Also interesting

37
00:01:26,040 --> 00:01:27,679
Speaker 2: if we put this next one up on the screen,

38
00:01:27,880 --> 00:01:31,280
Speaker 2: This was kind of fascinating. So they dug into these

39
00:01:31,600 --> 00:01:35,839
Speaker 2: different policy areas to see how New Yorkers felt about

40
00:01:35,880 --> 00:01:41,280
Speaker 2: these various candidates, and Zoran came out on top in everything.

41
00:01:41,560 --> 00:01:44,479
Speaker 2: So the one where he was closest was on crime,

42
00:01:44,480 --> 00:01:46,560
Speaker 2: where he just edged out Quoma. I'm sure it's like

43
00:01:46,560 --> 00:01:50,760
Speaker 2: a statistical tie there, but commanding lead on affordability, commanding

44
00:01:50,840 --> 00:01:53,920
Speaker 2: lead on housing, pretty solid lead on taxes and spending,

45
00:01:54,000 --> 00:01:58,920
Speaker 2: and his largest lead actually is on the Israeli Palestinian

46
00:01:59,160 --> 00:02:03,040
Speaker 2: conflict worth forty three percent say they think he would

47
00:02:03,080 --> 00:02:05,880
Speaker 2: do the best job on that issue. Of course, not

48
00:02:06,000 --> 00:02:08,520
Speaker 2: that central to the New York City mayor's race, but

49
00:02:08,600 --> 00:02:10,880
Speaker 2: in any case, his opponents tried to make it central

50
00:02:10,880 --> 00:02:14,240
Speaker 2: to it. Cuomo is second at sixteen percent, or actually

51
00:02:14,400 --> 00:02:16,480
Speaker 2: really second is don't know or did not say, at

52
00:02:16,520 --> 00:02:19,120
Speaker 2: twenty one percent. So Dave, what do you make of

53
00:02:19,160 --> 00:02:21,799
Speaker 2: these numbers? What sort of jumped out at you as

54
00:02:21,880 --> 00:02:24,240
Speaker 2: significant both of them had to head And then also

55
00:02:24,240 --> 00:02:25,240
Speaker 2: with the issues.

56
00:02:25,080 --> 00:02:28,000
Speaker 5: Well, Zorn's personal popularity too, that's another piece of data

57
00:02:28,440 --> 00:02:31,639
Speaker 5: in this poll. He is more the only candidate who

58
00:02:31,639 --> 00:02:34,240
Speaker 5: most voters say they like. It's I think plus thirteen.

59
00:02:34,320 --> 00:02:37,359
Speaker 5: Everyone else is underwater. So everyone else is trying to

60
00:02:37,400 --> 00:02:39,920
Speaker 5: do the classic multi candidate field thing of dragging him,

61
00:02:40,280 --> 00:02:44,200
Speaker 5: dragging him below the water, but dragging themselves. They're dragging

62
00:02:44,240 --> 00:02:47,040
Speaker 5: each other below the water too. No one's getting advantage.

63
00:02:47,560 --> 00:02:52,639
Speaker 5: Cuomo tried after this about a three weeks ago, Tomo tried,

64
00:02:52,880 --> 00:02:56,480
Speaker 5: after reporting on the housing plans, to say that Zoron

65
00:02:56,880 --> 00:03:00,360
Speaker 5: was unfairly in a rent stabilized apartment. He'd some say control,

66
00:03:00,360 --> 00:03:03,120
Speaker 5: which is different and if Andrew Cuomo's elected, there's going

67
00:03:03,200 --> 00:03:05,760
Speaker 5: to be a reckoning with people with rent stabilized departments.

68
00:03:05,960 --> 00:03:07,919
Speaker 5: That's the first poll since then that didn't work at all.

69
00:03:08,160 --> 00:03:11,200
Speaker 5: That just wasn't affordability argument, that was a revenge argument.

70
00:03:11,639 --> 00:03:15,280
Speaker 5: And able yes, And it is remarkable that, knowing we

71
00:03:15,639 --> 00:03:17,320
Speaker 5: cover several months, though this is a discourse in the

72
00:03:17,400 --> 00:03:20,280
Speaker 5: entire Democratic Party, several months to see that Zoron captured

73
00:03:20,280 --> 00:03:23,359
Speaker 5: the affordability message. Are they competing on that, No, they're

74
00:03:23,440 --> 00:03:26,520
Speaker 5: very distracted by other issues, And even on the crime issue.

75
00:03:26,760 --> 00:03:29,080
Speaker 5: Zorn's been saying, for I'm not trying to raise campaign

76
00:03:29,200 --> 00:03:31,120
Speaker 5: brochure form, but since he got in the race he

77
00:03:31,160 --> 00:03:33,400
Speaker 5: renounced to fund the police. His answers on policing are

78
00:03:33,400 --> 00:03:36,480
Speaker 5: not I'm going to stop them from arresting anybody. Nobody

79
00:03:36,520 --> 00:03:39,120
Speaker 5: can really make that stick because they're still operating like

80
00:03:39,200 --> 00:03:42,200
Speaker 5: voters think he has the mindset of twenty twenty.

81
00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:44,320
Speaker 4: No longer does. So you can't polygraph him, but he

82
00:03:44,400 --> 00:03:45,000
Speaker 4: no longer does.

83
00:03:45,240 --> 00:03:45,480
Speaker 3: I mean.

84
00:03:45,520 --> 00:03:48,480
Speaker 2: Also, crime has come down in New York City, so

85
00:03:48,560 --> 00:03:50,880
Speaker 2: it's also potentially not an issue, not as much of

86
00:03:50,920 --> 00:03:52,880
Speaker 2: an issue as it was when Eric Adams was getting

87
00:03:52,920 --> 00:03:55,360
Speaker 2: elected for example, it was interesting to me too to

88
00:03:55,360 --> 00:03:57,560
Speaker 2: see there that Adams is quite poorly on the issue

89
00:03:57,560 --> 00:03:58,920
Speaker 2: of crime, even though you know he.

90
00:03:59,000 --> 00:03:59,960
Speaker 3: Was a police officer.

91
00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:01,760
Speaker 2: He ran on that that was sort of like his

92
00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:04,440
Speaker 2: bread and butter, and crime has actually come down under

93
00:04:04,480 --> 00:04:07,400
Speaker 2: his tenure, and yet Zorin has much high approval day there.

94
00:04:07,440 --> 00:04:09,240
Speaker 2: The other one that is just fascinating to me is

95
00:04:09,320 --> 00:04:12,040
Speaker 2: the Israeli Palestinian conflict number.

96
00:04:12,000 --> 00:04:13,360
Speaker 3: And that was an issue.

97
00:04:13,440 --> 00:04:15,800
Speaker 2: You know, Zoran was not trying to make that central

98
00:04:15,840 --> 00:04:18,599
Speaker 2: to his campaign, but Cuomo and others in the Democratic

99
00:04:18,600 --> 00:04:20,680
Speaker 2: primary were really trying to tag him with this label

100
00:04:20,680 --> 00:04:22,600
Speaker 2: of oh, he's an anti semi and he just hates

101
00:04:22,640 --> 00:04:24,960
Speaker 2: Jewish people and he hates Israel. Won't even travel to

102
00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:27,479
Speaker 2: commit to traveling to Israel, he won't say that Israel's

103
00:04:27,560 --> 00:04:29,559
Speaker 2: has a right to exist as a Jewish state.

104
00:04:29,960 --> 00:04:30,920
Speaker 3: And you know, I.

105
00:04:30,839 --> 00:04:33,960
Speaker 2: Think it's pretty clear not only did that argument fail,

106
00:04:34,200 --> 00:04:37,120
Speaker 2: but it actually redounded to his benefit ultimately. You know,

107
00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:40,359
Speaker 2: for people care about that issue, he is receiving the

108
00:04:40,400 --> 00:04:42,720
Speaker 2: lion's share of the vote. And it also made them

109
00:04:42,760 --> 00:04:45,560
Speaker 2: look like they were focused on these other superfluous issues

110
00:04:45,640 --> 00:04:48,680
Speaker 2: while he was focused on affordability and issues that were

111
00:04:48,680 --> 00:04:49,599
Speaker 2: core to New Yorkers.

112
00:04:49,720 --> 00:04:51,680
Speaker 5: Yeah, and you said there's an intensity gap. So the

113
00:04:51,760 --> 00:04:55,239
Speaker 5: voters who care most about this are not the Upper

114
00:04:55,279 --> 00:04:57,440
Speaker 5: East Side, the voters that everyone thought they were going after.

115
00:04:58,160 --> 00:05:00,520
Speaker 5: We're a little bit outdated. At the Democrats had a

116
00:05:00,600 --> 00:05:02,320
Speaker 5: view of the electorate that was very frozen in the

117
00:05:02,360 --> 00:05:06,960
Speaker 5: eighties in views of how Jewish voters think of Israel,

118
00:05:07,040 --> 00:05:10,080
Speaker 5: and they did not factor in two years of the

119
00:05:10,120 --> 00:05:12,960
Speaker 5: demolition of Israel image even with Jewish Americans, especially in

120
00:05:12,960 --> 00:05:13,400
Speaker 5: New York.

121
00:05:13,680 --> 00:05:15,080
Speaker 4: And there's a dismissal you.

122
00:05:15,040 --> 00:05:19,279
Speaker 5: Find in the pro Israel political community of younger groups

123
00:05:19,320 --> 00:05:23,200
Speaker 5: that are on campus active or in public active, the

124
00:05:23,240 --> 00:05:26,039
Speaker 5: BDS movement, the Jewish members of that movement, but there

125
00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:27,760
Speaker 5: are a lot of them in New York, and so

126
00:05:27,880 --> 00:05:30,800
Speaker 5: Zorn has that entire vote. The pro Israel vote is

127
00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:33,839
Speaker 5: divided between other candidates. But you're right, this was not

128
00:05:33,960 --> 00:05:36,400
Speaker 5: the issue of the race. The other candidates thought they

129
00:05:36,440 --> 00:05:39,080
Speaker 5: would get that intensity gat they would get most Jewish voters,

130
00:05:39,160 --> 00:05:41,120
Speaker 5: that would be a block that would help Quomo over

131
00:05:41,200 --> 00:05:44,000
Speaker 5: the line. There are communities where that happened for Cuomo,

132
00:05:44,160 --> 00:05:47,040
Speaker 5: less so for Adams. Adams is literally running on the

133
00:05:47,200 --> 00:05:50,440
Speaker 5: stop anti semitism ballot line. What about LIESI got they

134
00:05:50,960 --> 00:05:53,360
Speaker 5: overrated how much of an issue this was. It does

135
00:05:53,440 --> 00:05:57,599
Speaker 5: sound like something they're here a lot from highly high

136
00:05:57,680 --> 00:06:01,320
Speaker 5: powered from donors, from high power Democrats, from people who

137
00:06:01,320 --> 00:06:03,279
Speaker 5: are worried in the Hampton's a real thing that the

138
00:06:03,320 --> 00:06:05,400
Speaker 5: time is running about, and that has just not been

139
00:06:06,240 --> 00:06:08,040
Speaker 5: the main intensity. Are there going to be voters who

140
00:06:08,320 --> 00:06:11,159
Speaker 5: get a mayor's oorn and are disappointed that he's few

141
00:06:11,160 --> 00:06:11,440
Speaker 5: doing that?

142
00:06:11,560 --> 00:06:14,080
Speaker 4: Yaho were something? Possibly it's not their top issue.

143
00:06:14,120 --> 00:06:16,520
Speaker 5: For everyone who does want a major figure in the

144
00:06:16,520 --> 00:06:19,599
Speaker 5: Democratic Party in their city to support in arms, embargo,

145
00:06:19,720 --> 00:06:22,760
Speaker 5: support changing Israel so that it's a secular state, as

146
00:06:22,839 --> 00:06:26,520
Speaker 5: Zorn does, it's the most exciting candidate of their lifetime.

147
00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:27,760
Speaker 4: So of course they're intense about it.

148
00:06:27,920 --> 00:06:30,679
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I'm sure you saw Kirsten jill Brand saying

149
00:06:30,720 --> 00:06:32,320
Speaker 2: I think it was like a donor event that nine

150
00:06:32,360 --> 00:06:35,200
Speaker 2: of ten Democrats support Israel and is like, you need

151
00:06:35,240 --> 00:06:37,440
Speaker 2: to take a look at literally any poll. Yeah, to

152
00:06:37,680 --> 00:06:40,160
Speaker 2: you adjust your views of where this issue is. That's

153
00:06:40,200 --> 00:06:42,120
Speaker 2: a whole other sidetrack. We'll push that one to the

154
00:06:42,160 --> 00:06:44,279
Speaker 2: side from because I want to get to your coverage

155
00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:46,760
Speaker 2: of We'll talk about the Abundance conference and begin with

156
00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:50,799
Speaker 2: put C one up on the screen here. So what

157
00:06:51,200 --> 00:06:52,960
Speaker 2: were some of the things that they were grappling with?

158
00:06:53,000 --> 00:06:55,960
Speaker 2: And I know you were telling me before we started that. Actually,

159
00:06:56,000 --> 00:06:59,039
Speaker 2: Zorin was very sort of present at this conference in

160
00:06:59,120 --> 00:07:01,480
Speaker 2: terms of a subject feeds in how to deal with him,

161
00:07:01,520 --> 00:07:05,279
Speaker 2: because during the primary he really kind of extended Alli Brandon.

162
00:07:05,320 --> 00:07:09,920
Speaker 2: He embraces a lot of abundance style policies and you know,

163
00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:12,600
Speaker 2: sort of talk the talk, but they certainly don't see

164
00:07:12,720 --> 00:07:14,240
Speaker 2: him as being one of them.

165
00:07:14,680 --> 00:07:18,080
Speaker 5: No, when I talked to Zoron before the primary, that

166
00:07:18,160 --> 00:07:20,120
Speaker 5: was one thing he emphasized. His vision, and the whole

167
00:07:20,160 --> 00:07:23,000
Speaker 5: campaign's vision is have a socialist mayor of New York

168
00:07:23,000 --> 00:07:24,600
Speaker 5: who makes the rest of the country say oh, this

169
00:07:24,640 --> 00:07:27,120
Speaker 5: could work for me in every respect, and that starts

170
00:07:27,120 --> 00:07:29,960
Speaker 5: with housing and affordability. So at the conference, some specific

171
00:07:30,000 --> 00:07:33,160
Speaker 5: examples where Raihan Salam, the president of the Manhattan Institute,

172
00:07:33,200 --> 00:07:35,560
Speaker 5: and there's an overlap of the Bunnets, but that's not

173
00:07:35,600 --> 00:07:37,480
Speaker 5: the face of their movement. Somebody let in their room

174
00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:41,080
Speaker 5: he said, look, I'm my family of Bangladeshi immigrants. When

175
00:07:41,160 --> 00:07:43,680
Speaker 5: Zoron says, afford to live, afford to dream. That's thrilling

176
00:07:43,680 --> 00:07:45,760
Speaker 5: to us. That's the story that a lot of our

177
00:07:45,800 --> 00:07:47,840
Speaker 5: parents had where they could buy a house and the

178
00:07:47,920 --> 00:07:50,240
Speaker 5: kids could live in one of the extra rooms. Their

179
00:07:50,320 --> 00:07:53,760
Speaker 5: kids can't afford a house. That was motivating for us,

180
00:07:53,840 --> 00:07:56,640
Speaker 5: and he captured it nobody else did. There was a

181
00:07:56,680 --> 00:08:01,080
Speaker 5: session on polling and data and it covered that, yes,

182
00:08:01,120 --> 00:08:03,960
Speaker 5: affordability is the most powerful message in politics, that the

183
00:08:03,960 --> 00:08:06,640
Speaker 5: top priority for voters, I should say, And there was

184
00:08:06,680 --> 00:08:10,240
Speaker 5: a slide showing zoron and that slogan on one half

185
00:08:10,280 --> 00:08:13,240
Speaker 5: of the slide. The other half was Trump at McDonald's

186
00:08:13,280 --> 00:08:16,280
Speaker 5: saying that there are ways to be populist and capture

187
00:08:16,280 --> 00:08:19,000
Speaker 5: this affordability message, and those guys are pretty good at it.

188
00:08:19,080 --> 00:08:21,920
Speaker 5: And we in the Abundance Movement do not have the branding,

189
00:08:22,320 --> 00:08:24,480
Speaker 5: the power. We have reach, and we have a lot

190
00:08:24,480 --> 00:08:26,200
Speaker 5: of meetings and a lot of groups that are signing

191
00:08:26,240 --> 00:08:28,720
Speaker 5: up on our MBI agenda, but that we've not figured

192
00:08:28,720 --> 00:08:31,040
Speaker 5: out a populous way to sell this the way Zorn has,

193
00:08:31,320 --> 00:08:32,920
Speaker 5: or to a lesser extent, Donald Trump has.

194
00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:35,480
Speaker 2: Can you talk a little bit more about the like,

195
00:08:36,000 --> 00:08:38,679
Speaker 2: where did this abundance movement come from? Because I think

196
00:08:38,760 --> 00:08:41,000
Speaker 2: For a lot of people, the perception was, you know,

197
00:08:41,280 --> 00:08:44,080
Speaker 2: Derek Thompson as reclined write this book, and then suddenly

198
00:08:44,160 --> 00:08:46,760
Speaker 2: we've got abundance conferences and we've got abundance think tanks

199
00:08:46,800 --> 00:08:49,120
Speaker 2: and this is whole thing, like where did this come from?

200
00:08:49,440 --> 00:08:52,400
Speaker 5: Yeah, they are key players in this, Thompson and Climber

201
00:08:52,440 --> 00:08:55,200
Speaker 5: writing up in twenty twenty two, twenty twenty three. At

202
00:08:55,200 --> 00:08:57,960
Speaker 5: the same time, there was a movement of liberals in

203
00:08:58,080 --> 00:09:00,200
Speaker 5: cities who wanted to build more and this came from

204
00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:04,160
Speaker 5: frustration really accelerating the Biden years. Biden's president. Money is

205
00:09:04,200 --> 00:09:06,520
Speaker 5: being shoveled out with the states. But you are a

206
00:09:06,640 --> 00:09:10,240
Speaker 5: legislator in California or in New York or even in Colorado,

207
00:09:10,600 --> 00:09:13,240
Speaker 5: and it's taking forever for you to build something. Because

208
00:09:13,360 --> 00:09:15,800
Speaker 5: there's a joke, there's a line they'd like to say

209
00:09:15,800 --> 00:09:18,559
Speaker 5: that there's no democratic Republican way to build a pothole. Well,

210
00:09:18,559 --> 00:09:20,640
Speaker 5: there is a democratic way to fill a pothole. I

211
00:09:20,640 --> 00:09:22,600
Speaker 5: should say it is to have a six month equity

212
00:09:22,600 --> 00:09:25,400
Speaker 5: study and make sure that the pothole filling company is

213
00:09:25,800 --> 00:09:29,000
Speaker 5: the minority owned, et cetera. So they were grappling, Okay,

214
00:09:29,040 --> 00:09:33,040
Speaker 5: this our Democratic party has no trade off agenda at all.

215
00:09:33,080 --> 00:09:35,440
Speaker 5: It just says everything to everybody. It takes every to build.

216
00:09:35,840 --> 00:09:39,040
Speaker 5: Biden presidency ends with so much money being clawed back

217
00:09:39,080 --> 00:09:41,320
Speaker 5: by Trump because they didn't spend it. So they're trying

218
00:09:41,360 --> 00:09:46,080
Speaker 5: to solve that national problem. But these two ideas sort

219
00:09:46,120 --> 00:09:48,079
Speaker 5: of come together with a lot of help from donors

220
00:09:48,120 --> 00:09:51,360
Speaker 5: with there are Silicon Valley donors, not just there, but

221
00:09:52,080 --> 00:09:54,959
Speaker 5: some of the people like John Arnold starts at Enron,

222
00:09:55,000 --> 00:09:59,160
Speaker 5: but now he's a bigger libertarian liberal philanthropist, and there

223
00:09:59,160 --> 00:10:00,959
Speaker 5: are a lot of people say, well, we don't want

224
00:10:00,960 --> 00:10:03,040
Speaker 5: the left to take over the Democratic Party. We do

225
00:10:03,160 --> 00:10:05,320
Speaker 5: like the idea where there are Democrats who want to

226
00:10:05,320 --> 00:10:08,439
Speaker 5: build things and spend things and deregulate. And this is

227
00:10:08,440 --> 00:10:11,920
Speaker 5: actually happening in some states. California. Scott Wiener, who's in

228
00:10:11,920 --> 00:10:15,200
Speaker 5: that slide in that picture, very progressive state senator, wants

229
00:10:15,280 --> 00:10:17,839
Speaker 5: to replace Pelosi when she retires, has a pretty good chance,

230
00:10:18,880 --> 00:10:21,520
Speaker 5: and he leads he's one of the leaders to scale

231
00:10:21,559 --> 00:10:24,160
Speaker 5: back the environmental law that was past the nineteen seventies

232
00:10:24,200 --> 00:10:29,080
Speaker 5: because every California's had experience with homeowners associations or energy

233
00:10:29,080 --> 00:10:32,320
Speaker 5: companies or just an angry boomer somewhere saying no, you

234
00:10:32,360 --> 00:10:35,800
Speaker 5: can't build that six unit apartment building on this vacant

235
00:10:35,800 --> 00:10:38,839
Speaker 5: lot because it'll block the view from my bungalow. So

236
00:10:38,840 --> 00:10:43,599
Speaker 5: it's a very local movement. Ezra, who's from California, is

237
00:10:43,679 --> 00:10:47,480
Speaker 5: big into this, and columnists and reporters talked to politicians,

238
00:10:47,520 --> 00:10:50,800
Speaker 5: talk to donors. It's not fully organic, but it was

239
00:10:50,840 --> 00:10:53,160
Speaker 5: just a couple of different ideas about the Democratic Party's

240
00:10:53,200 --> 00:11:01,679
Speaker 5: problems being i'd say elucidated the most I guess book

241
00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:04,520
Speaker 5: selling way by these two guys, and that's now the

242
00:11:04,520 --> 00:11:06,480
Speaker 5: brand of the movement. But they didn't fully start it.

243
00:11:06,520 --> 00:11:08,640
Speaker 2: Well and talk a little bit more about who's in

244
00:11:08,679 --> 00:11:12,480
Speaker 2: the movement, because you have liberals like Ezra and Derek,

245
00:11:12,840 --> 00:11:14,920
Speaker 2: and then you have these more libertarians. I mean at

246
00:11:14,920 --> 00:11:17,839
Speaker 2: its core, like this is an oversimplification, but a lot

247
00:11:17,840 --> 00:11:20,080
Speaker 2: of it is just kind of like deregulation, you know,

248
00:11:20,120 --> 00:11:23,680
Speaker 2: which obviously little libertarians have long loved. So are there

249
00:11:23,720 --> 00:11:27,800
Speaker 2: tensions in the movement between these various factions of how

250
00:11:27,800 --> 00:11:28,320
Speaker 2: to proceed?

251
00:11:28,600 --> 00:11:30,719
Speaker 5: There are some so and the conference you can go

252
00:11:30,760 --> 00:11:33,240
Speaker 5: their website that donors include Stand Together, which is the

253
00:11:33,280 --> 00:11:37,680
Speaker 5: Coke organization specific Legal Foundation, which is a libertarian legal group.

254
00:11:38,240 --> 00:11:41,040
Speaker 5: They do have some different some differences. One of them,

255
00:11:41,400 --> 00:11:43,240
Speaker 5: I'll I draw a little bit in the article is

256
00:11:43,280 --> 00:11:46,360
Speaker 5: that what is where does immigration immigration fit into this?

257
00:11:46,559 --> 00:11:50,400
Speaker 5: Is there progressives who and libertarians who are very open

258
00:11:50,440 --> 00:11:52,840
Speaker 5: minded an immigration get as many people in the If

259
00:11:52,880 --> 00:11:54,800
Speaker 5: you need asylum, you can move to my city. If

260
00:11:54,800 --> 00:11:57,600
Speaker 5: you have high skills, even better. We need to streamline

261
00:11:57,600 --> 00:12:01,000
Speaker 5: the system. But there is a political worry from the

262
00:12:01,440 --> 00:12:06,200
Speaker 5: more democratic electability focus abundance people that if Democrats are

263
00:12:06,200 --> 00:12:08,360
Speaker 5: seen as the party that has no restrictions in immigration,

264
00:12:08,880 --> 00:12:10,959
Speaker 5: then the homeowner who says I want to vote for

265
00:12:11,000 --> 00:12:13,360
Speaker 5: the party that's going to make easier to fund to

266
00:12:13,360 --> 00:12:15,679
Speaker 5: build a home, to buy a home, is going to say, well,

267
00:12:15,679 --> 00:12:17,439
Speaker 5: that party is going to give everything away to these

268
00:12:17,480 --> 00:12:19,720
Speaker 5: new arrivals. I'm going to vote for the Republicans who

269
00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:22,600
Speaker 5: say that they're going to do mass breed deportation and

270
00:12:22,679 --> 00:12:25,440
Speaker 5: I can have a cheaper housing, cheaper goods for that reason.

271
00:12:25,840 --> 00:12:27,160
Speaker 4: So that was one conflict.

272
00:12:27,200 --> 00:12:30,040
Speaker 5: It was actually between the libertarians and the more progresses

273
00:12:30,080 --> 00:12:33,040
Speaker 5: on one side and the more electorally minded.

274
00:12:32,760 --> 00:12:33,800
Speaker 4: Liberals on another side.

275
00:12:33,880 --> 00:12:37,360
Speaker 5: There are different views of what abundance means. Does it

276
00:12:37,480 --> 00:12:42,240
Speaker 5: mean those restrictions to make it necessary. Does it mean

277
00:12:42,760 --> 00:12:46,600
Speaker 5: just a deregulation where there are few trade offs. Part

278
00:12:46,640 --> 00:12:49,160
Speaker 5: of the conference was about debating this, and I was

279
00:12:49,160 --> 00:12:52,160
Speaker 5: at NATCON, the National Conservatives Conference too. They free themselves

280
00:12:52,160 --> 00:12:54,640
Speaker 5: against that. They said, well, we're having our fights. But

281
00:12:54,760 --> 00:12:57,280
Speaker 5: on the other side is the Trump administration that believes

282
00:12:57,280 --> 00:12:59,040
Speaker 5: in scarcity, that believes in deportation.

283
00:12:59,480 --> 00:13:00,320
Speaker 4: We're not doing that.

284
00:13:00,480 --> 00:13:02,920
Speaker 5: We're saying that we can the population of the country

285
00:13:02,960 --> 00:13:05,000
Speaker 5: could grow steadily, We could have more, we could have

286
00:13:05,440 --> 00:13:07,400
Speaker 5: big families. And they don't have an answer for them.

287
00:13:07,440 --> 00:13:09,640
Speaker 5: They want them to live on the AI generated farm

288
00:13:09,679 --> 00:13:11,920
Speaker 5: with the drad wife. You want them to live in

289
00:13:11,960 --> 00:13:14,440
Speaker 5: a single stare unit and maybe buy a bigger house

290
00:13:14,440 --> 00:13:16,600
Speaker 5: when they're older because we freed up the housing market.

291
00:13:16,679 --> 00:13:18,480
Speaker 4: We've made it legal to build things.

292
00:13:18,960 --> 00:13:21,559
Speaker 5: So it's a very optimistic movement, but also very aware

293
00:13:21,600 --> 00:13:23,720
Speaker 5: of all these political cross currents that may be hard

294
00:13:23,760 --> 00:13:24,000
Speaker 5: to win.

295
00:13:24,679 --> 00:13:27,680
Speaker 2: Let's talk a little bit about that National Conservative National

296
00:13:27,720 --> 00:13:30,160
Speaker 2: Conservatism Conference, right, and you know what it's called. Okay,

297
00:13:30,240 --> 00:13:32,559
Speaker 2: let's put this up on the screen. This is c

298
00:13:32,760 --> 00:13:37,079
Speaker 2: two guys, and you say nationalists consolidate the US right

299
00:13:37,160 --> 00:13:40,680
Speaker 2: with one small crack, and I'm sure it was interesting

300
00:13:40,760 --> 00:13:42,760
Speaker 2: to go, you know, back to back to these two

301
00:13:42,760 --> 00:13:44,920
Speaker 2: conferences because with the abundance people, you've got a group

302
00:13:44,920 --> 00:13:46,480
Speaker 2: of people who are like totally out of power in

303
00:13:46,520 --> 00:13:49,839
Speaker 2: terms of the federal conversation with the nationalists. They've got

304
00:13:49,840 --> 00:13:52,360
Speaker 2: their guy in the White House, and they've got Stephen Miller,

305
00:13:52,400 --> 00:13:55,120
Speaker 2: and they've got you know, a whole administration, and they

306
00:13:55,160 --> 00:13:57,040
Speaker 2: had time in the off season to like put together

307
00:13:57,160 --> 00:13:59,840
Speaker 2: what their policy plan was. They're steamrolling through the Supreme

308
00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:02,480
Speaker 2: word Zager and I covered that earlier. So, you know,

309
00:14:02,600 --> 00:14:04,880
Speaker 2: how are they feeling about how all of this is going.

310
00:14:05,120 --> 00:14:07,280
Speaker 4: They're feeling great, you conveyed it.

311
00:14:07,360 --> 00:14:09,760
Speaker 5: They feel that Donald Trump is not going to have

312
00:14:09,840 --> 00:14:12,439
Speaker 5: a problem leading this movement for another three years, that

313
00:14:12,440 --> 00:14:14,200
Speaker 5: it doesn't have a serious threat to power. The left

314
00:14:14,280 --> 00:14:16,480
Speaker 5: is in disarray, which I guess you just dealt with. Yeah,

315
00:14:16,520 --> 00:14:19,240
Speaker 5: and then the old right, they're saying the Conservative inc

316
00:14:19,360 --> 00:14:23,400
Speaker 5: Is the popular term for it, are discredited, but they're

317
00:14:23,440 --> 00:14:25,760
Speaker 5: going to try to take the party back over once

318
00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:28,040
Speaker 5: Trump is gone. And there are Bannons who say maybe

319
00:14:28,080 --> 00:14:30,360
Speaker 5: he'll never be gone, but most of the movement thing. Yeah,

320
00:14:30,400 --> 00:14:32,920
Speaker 5: in twenty twenty eight, when it's a Rubio vance primary.

321
00:14:33,120 --> 00:14:36,320
Speaker 5: The crack that was referring to the headline is younger

322
00:14:36,360 --> 00:14:38,960
Speaker 5: conservatives who are aligned with this, who agree with the

323
00:14:38,960 --> 00:14:43,360
Speaker 5: movement's goals, who agree with deportations. There is a strain

324
00:14:43,560 --> 00:14:46,600
Speaker 5: of America first foreign policy thinking that includes let's cut

325
00:14:46,600 --> 00:14:49,680
Speaker 5: off all funding to Israel, and even let's not support

326
00:14:49,880 --> 00:14:52,520
Speaker 5: the United States backing up Israel because they need our

327
00:14:52,520 --> 00:14:54,600
Speaker 5: B two bombers to finish something their army couldn't or

328
00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:56,000
Speaker 5: their air force couldn't do.

329
00:14:56,720 --> 00:14:57,680
Speaker 4: So that was the crack.

330
00:14:57,760 --> 00:15:01,040
Speaker 5: And so you're in MAZONI, the leader of the Conference

331
00:15:01,080 --> 00:15:05,080
Speaker 5: of Edinburgh Foundation, et cetera. He uses his speech to

332
00:15:05,120 --> 00:15:07,640
Speaker 5: say we're winning. However, I had no I was really

333
00:15:07,680 --> 00:15:10,200
Speaker 5: in denial about how many young people would have a

334
00:15:10,240 --> 00:15:12,840
Speaker 5: problem with Israel and how many of our commentators. He

335
00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:14,400
Speaker 5: didn't use the names, but it sounded like he meant

336
00:15:14,440 --> 00:15:17,000
Speaker 5: Tucker Carlson, how many of our commentators, how many people

337
00:15:17,000 --> 00:15:19,960
Speaker 5: are getting these new audiences and are critical of Israel.

338
00:15:20,120 --> 00:15:23,480
Speaker 5: At this point, was never criticized Israel. It was I thought,

339
00:15:23,520 --> 00:15:25,960
Speaker 5: after the Ran bombing happened in World War Three, didn't happen,

340
00:15:26,040 --> 00:15:27,880
Speaker 5: that would stop, and it didn't. It looks like there's

341
00:15:27,880 --> 00:15:30,680
Speaker 5: something very elemental here where people here in nationalism and

342
00:15:30,680 --> 00:15:33,120
Speaker 5: they think not just let's have the strongest military in

343
00:15:33,160 --> 00:15:36,800
Speaker 5: the world, but let's not be bailing out Ukraine or

344
00:15:36,880 --> 00:15:39,920
Speaker 5: Israel or anyone else, viewing them the way that we

345
00:15:40,040 --> 00:15:43,200
Speaker 5: view France. Nobody's saying, let's let they need our help

346
00:15:43,240 --> 00:15:45,880
Speaker 5: right now. This other nuclear power in Europe needs our

347
00:15:45,880 --> 00:15:48,760
Speaker 5: help and needs our military aid. So that was a

348
00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:51,040
Speaker 5: fairly hot debate. There was a debate where leaders of

349
00:15:51,040 --> 00:15:54,640
Speaker 5: the Heritage Foundation, EUROM, etc. Were listening as the American

350
00:15:54,680 --> 00:15:57,800
Speaker 5: Conservative and Max Abrams, I actually say, Kurt Mills, American

351
00:15:57,800 --> 00:16:01,560
Speaker 5: Conservative and Max Abrams a scholar in Northeastern we're debating this.

352
00:16:01,640 --> 00:16:04,480
Speaker 5: Abraham saying you guys are discredited and there is an

353
00:16:04,480 --> 00:16:07,320
Speaker 5: American role in defending Israel, and Mills saying, no, this

354
00:16:07,920 --> 00:16:09,880
Speaker 5: is this is going to ruin the entire movement and

355
00:16:09,920 --> 00:16:13,760
Speaker 5: we're anti interventionists and this doesn't fit in. So the

356
00:16:13,800 --> 00:16:17,400
Speaker 5: final thing I'll say about that is national conservatism. It

357
00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:19,440
Speaker 5: is rooted in a lot of politics in Israel in

358
00:16:19,480 --> 00:16:22,720
Speaker 5: Europe that are not necessarily the same politics we have here.

359
00:16:22,760 --> 00:16:26,160
Speaker 5: Europe has a different experience with mass immigration than we

360
00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:31,200
Speaker 5: do it has longer traditions of ethnic hmogeneity in their

361
00:16:31,240 --> 00:16:32,080
Speaker 5: countries that are changing.

362
00:16:32,160 --> 00:16:33,840
Speaker 2: They have more of a sort of natural blood and

363
00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:34,760
Speaker 2: soil inclination.

364
00:16:35,360 --> 00:16:36,720
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, yeah.

365
00:16:36,760 --> 00:16:40,040
Speaker 5: And in America, the country of manifest destiny and expanding

366
00:16:40,040 --> 00:16:43,280
Speaker 5: into the frontiers and talking about buying greenland, does that fit?

367
00:16:43,400 --> 00:16:46,200
Speaker 5: There was some tension there, but the main tension was, well,

368
00:16:46,960 --> 00:16:49,320
Speaker 5: should forgetting about whether we should have we have more

369
00:16:49,320 --> 00:16:52,160
Speaker 5: in common with Israel as a project. Why are we

370
00:16:52,160 --> 00:16:54,880
Speaker 5: funding any war there whatsoever? Why are we on the hook?

371
00:16:55,080 --> 00:16:57,040
Speaker 5: And isn't it going to discredit? This is one point

372
00:16:57,160 --> 00:16:59,280
Speaker 5: Mills made. Young people are learning that all of our

373
00:16:59,280 --> 00:17:02,240
Speaker 5: movement does is cut taxes and give money in.

374
00:17:02,200 --> 00:17:03,040
Speaker 4: For foreign wars.

375
00:17:03,440 --> 00:17:05,560
Speaker 5: That he was saying, this could all fall apart the

376
00:17:05,560 --> 00:17:07,639
Speaker 5: way the neocnservative fell apart if we don't fix this.

377
00:17:07,920 --> 00:17:09,640
Speaker 3: Yeah. Well, there's a lot of parallels there.

378
00:17:09,640 --> 00:17:11,520
Speaker 2: I mean, if you just described the agenda that way,

379
00:17:11,760 --> 00:17:14,560
Speaker 2: that is the Bush administration agenda. Let me just play

380
00:17:14,600 --> 00:17:16,200
Speaker 2: this one clip of Kurt Mills, because I thought I

381
00:17:16,240 --> 00:17:20,080
Speaker 2: was interested. He's an American conservative executive director. Also talking

382
00:17:20,119 --> 00:17:24,280
Speaker 2: about the hypocrisy around speech issues. Remember Jane Vance went

383
00:17:24,320 --> 00:17:27,040
Speaker 2: to Europe and lectured them about free speech. Continue to

384
00:17:27,080 --> 00:17:30,560
Speaker 2: hear these lecturers about European speech policies, and yet of

385
00:17:30,600 --> 00:17:32,800
Speaker 2: course there's been a major attack on free speech here,

386
00:17:32,880 --> 00:17:36,399
Speaker 2: especially when it comes to Israel Palestine. This is c

387
00:17:36,680 --> 00:17:38,080
Speaker 2: three guys, let's go and play this.

388
00:17:38,520 --> 00:17:39,520
Speaker 4: On the home front.

389
00:17:40,080 --> 00:17:44,280
Speaker 6: This dynamic is dementing. One could be forgiven for believing

390
00:17:44,320 --> 00:17:48,240
Speaker 6: the only people this administration is reliably deporting are supporters

391
00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:51,679
Speaker 6: of the Palestinian cause. After writing back into power on

392
00:17:51,720 --> 00:17:54,720
Speaker 6: the appeal of free speech enshrined in the first Amendment

393
00:17:54,720 --> 00:17:58,879
Speaker 6: of this country's constitution, If conserving that isn't conservatism, I

394
00:17:58,960 --> 00:18:02,120
Speaker 6: don't know what is. This administration has used this influence

395
00:18:02,160 --> 00:18:07,639
Speaker 6: to attempt and curb and intimidate speech on Middle East issues, particularly.

396
00:18:07,200 --> 00:18:08,040
Speaker 4: The State Department.

397
00:18:08,480 --> 00:18:14,040
Speaker 6: After assembling and potentially generationally realigning cohort of voters disgusted

398
00:18:14,240 --> 00:18:17,959
Speaker 6: with woke pieties and the suffocation of dialogue with incessant

399
00:18:18,040 --> 00:18:23,320
Speaker 6: accusations of racism, Republicans have all too eagerly embraced holding

400
00:18:23,320 --> 00:18:27,600
Speaker 6: the whip themselves, accusing countless on bigoting critics as anti

401
00:18:27,680 --> 00:18:30,480
Speaker 6: Semites instead of engaging on the issue.

402
00:18:30,840 --> 00:18:33,880
Speaker 3: So Dave ho was this message received in the room in.

403
00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:36,679
Speaker 5: That room very well. This is a room again, A

404
00:18:36,720 --> 00:18:39,320
Speaker 5: lot of people pack this room. Not everything the conference

405
00:18:39,359 --> 00:18:41,560
Speaker 5: was this crowded. There are people standing along the walls

406
00:18:41,560 --> 00:18:43,560
Speaker 5: and younger You could kind of tell if you were

407
00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:47,960
Speaker 5: doing a quick mitochondrial survey of the room. Younger people

408
00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:51,720
Speaker 5: in the room were laughing a lot more at his lines, the.

409
00:18:51,760 --> 00:18:55,919
Speaker 2: Sort of things going for that might have come at

410
00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:56,600
Speaker 2: this conference.

411
00:18:57,720 --> 00:19:01,320
Speaker 5: But even if they agreed with Abrams, this idea that

412
00:19:01,600 --> 00:19:03,719
Speaker 5: we are giving up our sovereignty, if we're saying that

413
00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:06,399
Speaker 5: we always have Israel's back, even if they're even if

414
00:19:06,400 --> 00:19:09,840
Speaker 5: they're pursuing war aims that are not defensive. This is

415
00:19:09,840 --> 00:19:11,560
Speaker 5: I think where a lot of the space is opened

416
00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:13,960
Speaker 5: up for not just people like Mills, but critics of

417
00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:16,679
Speaker 5: Israel in the United States among the Democrats. Is not

418
00:19:17,640 --> 00:19:19,280
Speaker 5: the we want Israel to go away, we want me

419
00:19:19,359 --> 00:19:21,600
Speaker 5: to replace. But do they really need this? It feels

420
00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:24,000
Speaker 5: like they're safe. And who's talked about this the Munich

421
00:19:24,000 --> 00:19:27,360
Speaker 5: effect where people don't think see Israel as under assault.

422
00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:28,920
Speaker 4: They oh, that's the country where.

423
00:19:28,760 --> 00:19:31,720
Speaker 5: If you commit any crime against it, they're going to

424
00:19:31,760 --> 00:19:32,960
Speaker 5: hunt you to the end of the earth and then

425
00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:36,399
Speaker 5: bomb you. Why do they need our money. But what

426
00:19:36,480 --> 00:19:38,200
Speaker 5: he was saying that it was worrying to some people

427
00:19:38,240 --> 00:19:40,080
Speaker 5: in that room. And I talked to some more pro

428
00:19:40,160 --> 00:19:43,520
Speaker 5: Israel attendees who they organize on college campuses, and ninety

429
00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:45,920
Speaker 5: five percent of what they're saying lands. And then someone

430
00:19:45,920 --> 00:19:48,199
Speaker 5: in the crowd says, I don't want to die for

431
00:19:48,280 --> 00:19:50,760
Speaker 5: Israel or why should I be dying for Israel. That's

432
00:19:50,800 --> 00:19:53,560
Speaker 5: what Mills is talking about, is that those people who

433
00:19:53,560 --> 00:19:56,320
Speaker 5: came into the coalition, the younger men who are interested

434
00:19:56,359 --> 00:19:58,640
Speaker 5: in a lot of what Trump is doing, might get

435
00:19:58,680 --> 00:20:00,840
Speaker 5: off on that. And certainly some of the the influential

436
00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:05,760
Speaker 5: Rogan types, we're not attitudinally conservative. That has been a

437
00:20:05,800 --> 00:20:08,280
Speaker 5: breaking point for them as Wait a second, because we're

438
00:20:08,320 --> 00:20:10,400
Speaker 5: not allowed to preticize this country. Why did this guy

439
00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:12,880
Speaker 5: get deported? What he's talking about, he's trying to say,

440
00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:16,160
Speaker 5: lop that off because you have the potential to completely

441
00:20:16,160 --> 00:20:18,920
Speaker 5: re align the country. Now comes disagreed, say no, you

442
00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:21,879
Speaker 5: could re align the country while this is happening. But

443
00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:23,919
Speaker 5: they haven't figured No one has figured out the answer

444
00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:27,000
Speaker 5: on this question. To me, that's a pretty healthy movement.

445
00:20:27,040 --> 00:20:30,440
Speaker 5: This is unlike Democrats who bracket the conversation don't want

446
00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:33,200
Speaker 5: to talk about Israel at all in the twenty twenty

447
00:20:33,240 --> 00:20:35,719
Speaker 5: four election. Yeah, and are now splintered in fighting over it.

448
00:20:35,760 --> 00:20:38,359
Speaker 5: This I think was happening too, was we have the

449
00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:41,040
Speaker 5: space and the power to say, let's air this out

450
00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:44,040
Speaker 5: and figure this out before we start losing elections over it,

451
00:20:44,160 --> 00:20:46,520
Speaker 5: or we start going on campuses and getting yelled at

452
00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:47,600
Speaker 5: because of our positions.

453
00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:47,920
Speaker 7: Yeah.

454
00:20:48,040 --> 00:20:51,560
Speaker 2: Interesting, And then contrast that with Schumer, Jeffreys, etc. Who

455
00:20:51,600 --> 00:20:55,240
Speaker 2: won't even endorse Zoron. I mean they won't say exactly why,

456
00:20:55,280 --> 00:20:57,560
Speaker 2: but certainly Israel is a part of thout calculus there

457
00:20:57,760 --> 00:21:00,640
Speaker 2: why they find it's so abhorrent. Where's the guy who

458
00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:04,200
Speaker 2: won the Democratic nomination by twelve points, Dave. Great to

459
00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:06,160
Speaker 2: have you, Thank you so much, as always for your insights.

460
00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:06,560
Speaker 4: Thank you.

461
00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:12,200
Speaker 2: We've got a number of significant developments we are tracking

462
00:21:12,240 --> 00:21:14,600
Speaker 2: with regard to Israel and Gaza, and we are joined

463
00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:16,840
Speaker 2: this morning, fortunately by Jeremy ska Hill, of course, co

464
00:21:16,920 --> 00:21:19,760
Speaker 2: founder of drop site News, alongside our own Ryan Grim.

465
00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:21,639
Speaker 4: Great to see Jeremy, Good to see you man, Good

466
00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:22,320
Speaker 4: to be with you, guys.

467
00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:25,080
Speaker 2: I wanted to start with these very nascent reports we're

468
00:21:25,080 --> 00:21:29,680
Speaker 2: getting of some type of an explosion in Doha. There's

469
00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:34,800
Speaker 2: some speculation it could have been at the Hamas offices there. So, Jeremy,

470
00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:36,840
Speaker 2: what can we say about the possibility of what's going.

471
00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:41,119
Speaker 8: On here well without speculating on the particulars of it,

472
00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:44,120
Speaker 8: because at this point we don't know anything factually other

473
00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:48,040
Speaker 8: than there's reports of an explosion. Israel has made clear

474
00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:53,120
Speaker 8: for decades that it's willing to assassinate Palestinian political figures,

475
00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:54,440
Speaker 8: resistance leaders, et cetera.

476
00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:56,040
Speaker 9: But in recent.

477
00:21:55,800 --> 00:21:59,720
Speaker 8: Weeks, the chief of staff of the Israeli Army said

478
00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:03,480
Speaker 8: explicitly that if Hamas does not surrender, it's not only

479
00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:07,400
Speaker 8: going to obliterate and annihilate all of Gaza, but that

480
00:22:07,520 --> 00:22:12,920
Speaker 8: it is going to target for assassination Hamas leaders abroad. Now,

481
00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:16,280
Speaker 8: of course, most of the Hamas figures that are trying

482
00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:19,600
Speaker 8: to negotiate these ceasefire deals and are essentially running the

483
00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:25,520
Speaker 8: organization politically, are outside of Gaza, and you know many

484
00:22:25,560 --> 00:22:29,560
Speaker 8: of them are in Doha, in Qatar, and of course

485
00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:36,200
Speaker 8: Israel last summer assassinated the political leader of Hamas, Ismail Hania,

486
00:22:36,800 --> 00:22:42,840
Speaker 8: in a strike in Tehran, Iran. It also assassinated recently

487
00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:46,119
Speaker 8: or it's also assassinated much of the on the ground

488
00:22:46,200 --> 00:22:48,880
Speaker 8: leadership of the Kassam Brigades, the armed wing of Hamas,

489
00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:52,720
Speaker 8: as well as the political leader in Gaza of Hamas,

490
00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:56,960
Speaker 8: Yahya Sinhwar. So Israel has a long history of assassinating

491
00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:03,080
Speaker 8: Palestinian political figures. Many years ago, there was an incredible

492
00:23:03,119 --> 00:23:06,000
Speaker 8: story that happened where Khaled Mishal, one of the leaders

493
00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:10,320
Speaker 8: of Hamas, was in Jordan in the Middle East and

494
00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:15,520
Speaker 8: Israeli Mossad agents poisoned him and it caused a huge

495
00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:20,639
Speaker 8: diplomatic uproar between Jordan and Israel, and essentially a Masad

496
00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:23,679
Speaker 8: agent had to fly on a plane with the antidote

497
00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:27,919
Speaker 8: for this poison to resuscitate Khalin Mischal. So, you know,

498
00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:30,159
Speaker 8: something out of a movie, but that actually happened. So,

499
00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:32,920
Speaker 8: you know, we should be watching this very carefully because

500
00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:36,919
Speaker 8: Donald Trump is, you know, put forward this vague ceasefire

501
00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:39,320
Speaker 8: proposal that we're going to talk about, and it seems

502
00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:42,240
Speaker 8: like anytime there's the possibility of some form of negotiation,

503
00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:44,880
Speaker 8: the Israelis not only escalate on the ground in Gaza,

504
00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:47,879
Speaker 8: but then increase their threats like we're seeing now to

505
00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:51,040
Speaker 8: potentially assassinate external leadership of Hamas.

506
00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:52,800
Speaker 1: Right, I mean, Jeremy, we were talking a bit before

507
00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:54,679
Speaker 1: the break. But it's very important to note, you know,

508
00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:58,280
Speaker 1: there are hundreds of thousands of Americans present in Doha,

509
00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:01,320
Speaker 1: not to mention all of the truth that are there,

510
00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:04,560
Speaker 1: and it is of course been away station for a

511
00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:07,320
Speaker 1: lot of the diplomatic talks between the United States, between

512
00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:10,040
Speaker 1: the World, Hamas and Israel, and so of course it

513
00:24:10,040 --> 00:24:13,560
Speaker 1: would be sending a message just as previous Israel assassinations

514
00:24:13,600 --> 00:24:17,760
Speaker 1: like in Tehran and elsewhere did. We did want originally

515
00:24:17,800 --> 00:24:20,359
Speaker 1: to talk to you about this ceasefire proposal. We can

516
00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:22,520
Speaker 1: go ahead and put it up here on the screen

517
00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:24,840
Speaker 1: just so you can give us some insight. It's one

518
00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:28,600
Speaker 1: hundred word ceasefire proposal from Trump to Hamas. Can you

519
00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:30,840
Speaker 1: break it down for us the level of seriousness and

520
00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:31,960
Speaker 1: what exactly it means?

521
00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:34,320
Speaker 8: Well, I think I think first it's important to look

522
00:24:34,359 --> 00:24:37,080
Speaker 8: at the broader context here. Right right now, Israel is

523
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:40,160
Speaker 8: in the midst of a sort of final solution operation

524
00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:44,159
Speaker 8: in Gaza City where they're just systematically targeting these massive

525
00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:46,760
Speaker 8: high rise buildings where some of them have one hundred

526
00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:51,399
Speaker 8: or more apartments in them, and they Yahu said last

527
00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:54,080
Speaker 8: night that all of the residents, we're talking about a

528
00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:57,600
Speaker 8: million people of Gaza City need to leave immediately or

529
00:24:57,600 --> 00:25:01,520
Speaker 8: they're going to consider them hamas combatant. So that's the

530
00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:05,040
Speaker 8: backdrop of what's happening right now, is this intensification by Israel.

531
00:25:05,560 --> 00:25:09,919
Speaker 8: Hamas three weeks ago, on August eighteenth, actually accepted what

532
00:25:10,040 --> 00:25:13,200
Speaker 8: Katari mediators said was ninety eight percent of the terms

533
00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:16,320
Speaker 8: of what was called the Whitcoff framework. This was the

534
00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:19,199
Speaker 8: deal that's being negotiated for months that would have been

535
00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:22,120
Speaker 8: a sixty day ceasefire where half of the Israeli living

536
00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:24,639
Speaker 8: captives and half of the deceased captives would have been

537
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:27,920
Speaker 8: released in exchange for a large number of Palestinians held

538
00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:32,199
Speaker 8: by Israel. And Hamas made massive concessions and agreed to

539
00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:35,320
Speaker 8: this framework, and then Israel never responded to it. And

540
00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:38,359
Speaker 8: what happened is that the Trump administration and the Israeli

541
00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:41,080
Speaker 8: government said, oh, no, we don't want that deal anymore.

542
00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:43,520
Speaker 9: We want now an all in deal.

543
00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:47,359
Speaker 8: Where Hamas immediately releases all Israeli captives.

544
00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:47,840
Speaker 9: Living in dead.

545
00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:51,240
Speaker 8: And so what we obtained was a one hundred word

546
00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:55,600
Speaker 8: summary of what Donald Trump has communicated to Hamas, and

547
00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:58,560
Speaker 8: what it basically says is that within forty eight hours

548
00:25:58,560 --> 00:26:02,000
Speaker 8: of signing an agreement, would need to release every single

549
00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:05,480
Speaker 8: Israeli that it's holding captive, and that a certain number

550
00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:08,760
Speaker 8: of Palestinians. It doesn't specify how many, some of whom

551
00:26:08,760 --> 00:26:11,680
Speaker 8: are serving life sentences others who were snatched from Gaza

552
00:26:12,280 --> 00:26:14,959
Speaker 8: after October seventh, would be released. It says that there

553
00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:18,760
Speaker 8: would be a sixty day ceasefire and that Donald Trump

554
00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:22,160
Speaker 8: would take responsibility for ensuring that the ceasefire held while

555
00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:25,879
Speaker 8: negotiations to formally end the war took place. What it

556
00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:29,320
Speaker 8: also says is that there would need to be a

557
00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:32,919
Speaker 8: new government installed in Gaza in order to even discuss

558
00:26:33,280 --> 00:26:36,399
Speaker 8: Israeli true withdrawals. It does say that there will be

559
00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:39,359
Speaker 8: aid allowed into Gaza, but it doesn't specify how much aid,

560
00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:42,600
Speaker 8: who would distribute the aid. So, you know, talking privately

561
00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:45,800
Speaker 8: to officials from Hamas, they have compared this essentially to

562
00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:49,880
Speaker 8: a surrender document. They suspect that it was written by Israel.

563
00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:53,159
Speaker 8: The Arabic where the document was presented in Arabic was

564
00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:57,119
Speaker 8: clumsy Arabic, strange word choices, so Hamas is speculating that

565
00:26:57,160 --> 00:26:58,800
Speaker 8: it was written by Israel, and we know that that

566
00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:01,840
Speaker 8: has happened in the past with you proposals. But then

567
00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:07,160
Speaker 8: Amir Sadal, one of the top propagandists for Netan Yahoo

568
00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:10,480
Speaker 8: on Israeli public television, he himself came out and said

569
00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:16,679
Speaker 8: that this is an Israeli proposal wrapped in fancy American cellophane,

570
00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:18,160
Speaker 8: and he you know.

571
00:27:18,119 --> 00:27:19,920
Speaker 9: So he said the quiet part out loud.

572
00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:23,280
Speaker 8: So what I think we're seeing here is, you know, Trump,

573
00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:26,679
Speaker 8: I think genuinely wants to wrap this up, so to speak,

574
00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:28,639
Speaker 8: but he wants to do it on Israel's terms. So

575
00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:32,520
Speaker 8: essentially what they're doing is saying, listen, accept this surrender

576
00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:35,080
Speaker 8: order from Israel, and I'll see if I can do

577
00:27:35,160 --> 00:27:38,280
Speaker 8: something about maybe ending the genocide. And there's no guarantees

578
00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:40,760
Speaker 8: that Israel wouldn't just get its captives back and then

579
00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:43,360
Speaker 8: continue with the war of annihilation. So I think it's

580
00:27:43,400 --> 00:27:47,200
Speaker 8: extremely unlikely, if not flat out impossible, that Hamas would

581
00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:48,639
Speaker 8: agree to such a jeremy.

582
00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:50,800
Speaker 4: While yeah talking, yeah, go ahead.

583
00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:54,280
Speaker 2: We have an update from Barack Revied tweeted from senior

584
00:27:54,359 --> 00:27:57,680
Speaker 2: Israeli officials. Quote, the explosion in Doha is an assassination

585
00:27:57,800 --> 00:28:02,080
Speaker 2: operation against senior Hamas officials, So it would appear to

586
00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:05,720
Speaker 2: be confirmation of what you and others suspected was going

587
00:28:05,760 --> 00:28:06,160
Speaker 2: on there.

588
00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:09,080
Speaker 8: Yeah, and again, I mean there was a very long

589
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:13,760
Speaker 8: history of Israel assassinating Palestinian political figures, not just within

590
00:28:13,840 --> 00:28:18,680
Speaker 8: the borders of historic Palestine, but externally. And again, Israel

591
00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:23,159
Speaker 8: openly has said in recent days that if Hamas doesn't

592
00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:26,960
Speaker 8: surrender and demilitarize and give up its arms and release

593
00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:30,560
Speaker 8: the Israeli captives, that it was going to begin targeting

594
00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:35,520
Speaker 8: the external leadership of Hamas. And remember this presumably would

595
00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:39,240
Speaker 8: mean that they are also attempting to assassinate the very

596
00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:43,400
Speaker 8: people who would be negotiating a ceasefire. And Donald Trump

597
00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:46,080
Speaker 8: just days ago submitted what he said as a new

598
00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:48,960
Speaker 8: proposal for a ceasefire. So doing that and then turning

599
00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:53,760
Speaker 8: around and assassinating the negotiators while they're deliberating a proposal

600
00:28:53,760 --> 00:28:56,560
Speaker 8: from the president of the United States sends a message

601
00:28:56,560 --> 00:29:01,240
Speaker 8: that the US is backing Israel in just constantly choosing

602
00:29:01,240 --> 00:29:05,280
Speaker 8: to murder Palestinians instead of using diplomatic roads, when the

603
00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:08,400
Speaker 8: Palestinians have said repeatedly they're open to an agreement either

604
00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:12,560
Speaker 8: in phases to release half the Israeli captives within sixty

605
00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:15,320
Speaker 8: days and the other half once the Seaspires negotiated or

606
00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:18,040
Speaker 8: to do an all for all deal. And again Hamas

607
00:29:18,080 --> 00:29:20,400
Speaker 8: made major concessions, and I think it's worth pointing out

608
00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:24,680
Speaker 8: among the concessions they made was allowing the Gaza Humanitarian

609
00:29:24,680 --> 00:29:27,960
Speaker 8: Foundation to continue operating despite the fact that upwards of

610
00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:30,840
Speaker 8: two thousand Palestinians have been killed seeking aid since May.

611
00:29:30,840 --> 00:29:33,880
Speaker 8: When they started, they backed off of their demand that

612
00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:37,240
Speaker 8: there'll be a clear timeline for withdrawal of Israeli forces

613
00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:40,520
Speaker 8: from the strategic Philadelphi Corridor. They reduced the number of

614
00:29:40,560 --> 00:29:43,920
Speaker 8: Palestinians that they were demanding be freed in return for

615
00:29:44,000 --> 00:29:47,760
Speaker 8: Israeli captives, and they also agreed to allow an Israeli

616
00:29:47,840 --> 00:29:51,520
Speaker 8: enforced buffer zone to encircle the entirety of the Gaza Strip,

617
00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:55,960
Speaker 8: at some points piercing one five hundred meters inside of Gaza,

618
00:29:56,480 --> 00:29:59,080
Speaker 8: and Israel and the United States never formally responded to

619
00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:02,960
Speaker 8: that offer. You know this, if this is true, then

620
00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:05,960
Speaker 8: what they're doing beyond the fact that they're conducting assassinations

621
00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:09,920
Speaker 8: on Katari soil, which also houses US sent Come, which

622
00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:14,840
Speaker 8: also is the lead mediator in these talks. They are

623
00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:18,120
Speaker 8: killing the very people that Donald Trump just sent an

624
00:30:18,280 --> 00:30:20,640
Speaker 8: offer to to try to reach a ceasefire deal.

625
00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:24,880
Speaker 1: Wow, Jeremy, is maybe a dumb question, but it's pretty

626
00:30:24,880 --> 00:30:27,680
Speaker 1: clear that Hamas or sor that Israel and the US

627
00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:31,479
Speaker 1: are just seeking unconditional surrender. The terms that you just

628
00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:35,440
Speaker 1: laid out effectively, I mean, would not only lead to

629
00:30:35,640 --> 00:30:39,080
Speaker 1: a quote unquote new government, but is really continued occupation

630
00:30:39,360 --> 00:30:43,600
Speaker 1: control of this so called buffer zone. What exactly does

631
00:30:43,640 --> 00:30:46,760
Speaker 1: Hamas see as the difference between that already you know,

632
00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:50,480
Speaker 1: pretty extraordinary concessions considering what they started out with as

633
00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:53,120
Speaker 1: opposed to unconditional surrender, Like why don't they just take

634
00:30:53,320 --> 00:30:56,840
Speaker 1: the unconditional surrender if they're effectively signing their own demise

635
00:30:56,880 --> 00:30:58,680
Speaker 1: and their own control anyways.

636
00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:00,080
Speaker 9: Well, two things.

637
00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:03,040
Speaker 8: One is, and Hamas leaders have said this to me privately,

638
00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:05,600
Speaker 8: they don't want to be in control of Gaza anymore.

639
00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:08,000
Speaker 8: You know, this is an albatross around the neck of

640
00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:10,920
Speaker 8: Hamas and it has been for many, many years. So

641
00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:14,400
Speaker 8: you know, they've said quite clearly they're willing to relinquish control.

642
00:31:14,840 --> 00:31:17,400
Speaker 8: The issue though, is that it's while we say Hamas,

643
00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:20,920
Speaker 8: it's not just Hamas. There are many Palestinian political groups,

644
00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:23,760
Speaker 8: including those opposed to Hamas or that are not allied

645
00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:26,800
Speaker 8: with Hamas, including those that have no armed factions but

646
00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:30,160
Speaker 8: are political parties that stand for elections, that also have

647
00:31:30,240 --> 00:31:32,760
Speaker 8: been part of these negotiations, And what they all have

648
00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:36,200
Speaker 8: said is that our right to bear arms in opposition

649
00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:40,160
Speaker 8: to an illegal occupation by a colonial apartheid state is

650
00:31:40,200 --> 00:31:43,600
Speaker 8: a legitimate right. And so while HAMAS could say, okay,

651
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:46,760
Speaker 8: we step down from power, We're not going to exist

652
00:31:46,800 --> 00:31:49,560
Speaker 8: anymore in this format. They're not going to sign a

653
00:31:49,600 --> 00:31:53,080
Speaker 8: document that says we agree to demilitarize the Gaza Strip.

654
00:31:53,320 --> 00:31:54,960
Speaker 8: In fact, they've said we don't have the right to

655
00:31:55,040 --> 00:31:57,880
Speaker 8: do that. That that is a question for the Palestinian people,

656
00:31:57,920 --> 00:32:02,080
Speaker 8: and consistently in public opinions, Palestinians support the right to

657
00:32:02,160 --> 00:32:04,000
Speaker 8: armed resistance. I think, at the end of the day,

658
00:32:04,040 --> 00:32:06,680
Speaker 8: the direct answer to your question is that they view

659
00:32:06,720 --> 00:32:09,640
Speaker 8: that not as a surrender of Hamas as a political

660
00:32:09,800 --> 00:32:12,160
Speaker 8: entity or a movement, but that it would be them

661
00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:16,920
Speaker 8: taking the outrageous action of surrendering the Palestinian cause of liberation,

662
00:32:17,360 --> 00:32:20,120
Speaker 8: and whatever anyone thinks of HAMAS, I think that's a

663
00:32:20,160 --> 00:32:23,280
Speaker 8: true statement, given that Hamas is used as kind of

664
00:32:23,320 --> 00:32:26,720
Speaker 8: the catch all to describe Palestinian armed resistance right now.

665
00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:30,600
Speaker 8: The fact is that the struggle, the armed struggle, far

666
00:32:30,760 --> 00:32:35,840
Speaker 8: predates Hamas, And if Hamas surrenders itself and dismantles and

667
00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:39,240
Speaker 8: no longer exists, another group of Palestinians are going to

668
00:32:39,320 --> 00:32:41,720
Speaker 8: rise up under the same type of banner, with the

669
00:32:41,760 --> 00:32:45,920
Speaker 8: same aim to repel Israel's occupation and liberate Palestine by

670
00:32:45,920 --> 00:32:49,520
Speaker 8: any means necessary, including armed force. So you know, you

671
00:32:49,520 --> 00:32:50,840
Speaker 8: have to look at this not in the context of

672
00:32:50,880 --> 00:32:53,640
Speaker 8: October seventh, but in the context of seventy six years

673
00:32:53,680 --> 00:32:55,600
Speaker 8: of history, and I think that genuinely is how the

674
00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:57,000
Speaker 8: Hamas negotiators view this.

675
00:32:57,560 --> 00:32:59,800
Speaker 2: Jermy last question I have for you is do you

676
00:32:59,800 --> 00:33:02,479
Speaker 2: find it plausible that Israel could have gone forward with

677
00:33:02,520 --> 00:33:05,800
Speaker 2: this assassination operation without at least in some way having

678
00:33:05,840 --> 00:33:07,280
Speaker 2: been greenland by the US.

679
00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:11,160
Speaker 8: You know, there were some reports that Donald Trump had

680
00:33:11,840 --> 00:33:14,600
Speaker 8: relayed to Hamas that that was an option on the table.

681
00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:17,680
Speaker 8: When I spoke to Hamas leaders over the past several days,

682
00:33:18,480 --> 00:33:21,560
Speaker 8: none of them said that that was true. They didn't

683
00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:24,040
Speaker 8: exactly say that it was false, but they said not

684
00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:27,960
Speaker 8: that I know of, not according to my information, it

685
00:33:28,000 --> 00:33:30,400
Speaker 8: would it would surprise me if there wasn't some form

686
00:33:30,440 --> 00:33:32,600
Speaker 8: of consultation with Donald Trump. And look, the guy, the

687
00:33:32,640 --> 00:33:35,960
Speaker 8: guy just greenlit this strike on the boat off of Venezuela. Right,

688
00:33:36,160 --> 00:33:38,320
Speaker 8: there's still questions about who the people were that they killed.

689
00:33:38,640 --> 00:33:41,880
Speaker 8: He green lit an assassination of Custom Solimani in his

690
00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:46,040
Speaker 8: first term, bombing him in a third country in Baghdad, Iraq.

691
00:33:46,440 --> 00:33:49,440
Speaker 9: So you know, do I know that Donald Trump was

692
00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:51,320
Speaker 9: aware of this? No? Do I suspect it?

693
00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:55,440
Speaker 1: Yes, me, Jeremy, as you laid out sent com, is

694
00:33:55,480 --> 00:33:59,040
Speaker 1: there nothing's flying in the airspace over there without us?

695
00:33:59,320 --> 00:34:03,040
Speaker 1: You know, at least my own personal speculation in just

696
00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:07,360
Speaker 1: in terms of pure deconfliction. Right for making sure that

697
00:34:07,480 --> 00:34:11,640
Speaker 1: you know US assets don't get confused. This is still

698
00:34:11,680 --> 00:34:15,200
Speaker 1: an extraordinary message. That's actually my last question. How is

699
00:34:15,239 --> 00:34:17,520
Speaker 1: the Gulf going to handle this? So, if you are

700
00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:20,920
Speaker 1: the UAE, if you're Saudi Arabia, and I know they

701
00:34:20,920 --> 00:34:25,439
Speaker 1: have complicated relations themselves with Katar obviously, but I mean

702
00:34:25,480 --> 00:34:28,240
Speaker 1: for them, the answer has to be you can house

703
00:34:28,360 --> 00:34:31,840
Speaker 1: US troops, you can buy hundreds of billions of dollars

704
00:34:31,880 --> 00:34:36,160
Speaker 1: in US arms, and you still may see basically, you know,

705
00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:39,960
Speaker 1: explosions and attacks by US ally on your soil. I mean,

706
00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:42,839
Speaker 1: doesn't it undermine a lot of their own security doctrine.

707
00:34:43,600 --> 00:34:46,239
Speaker 8: I mean, first of all, you know, many Palestinians see

708
00:34:46,239 --> 00:34:50,640
Speaker 8: the United Arab Emirates as basically now a self declared

709
00:34:50,680 --> 00:34:53,440
Speaker 8: suburb of Israel. You know, it was the lead figure

710
00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:56,719
Speaker 8: in the Abraham Accords, but also is you know, constantly

711
00:34:56,760 --> 00:34:59,719
Speaker 8: taking Israel's side. But if you look at Katar, this

712
00:34:59,800 --> 00:35:01,640
Speaker 8: is a you know, a different equation. I mean, you

713
00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:05,560
Speaker 8: mentioned Sentcom being there, but you know, Trump also has

714
00:35:05,600 --> 00:35:07,840
Speaker 8: these huge business deals going on, not just you know,

715
00:35:07,960 --> 00:35:10,880
Speaker 8: officially in his capacity as president and getting his airplane

716
00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:13,960
Speaker 8: and all those things, but also his family businesses. So

717
00:35:13,960 --> 00:35:16,439
Speaker 8: there's you know, there's deep ties there. The cold, hard

718
00:35:16,440 --> 00:35:18,200
Speaker 8: fact at the end of the day is that what

719
00:35:18,239 --> 00:35:21,719
Speaker 8: the US and Israel have shown is that Israel can

720
00:35:21,760 --> 00:35:23,960
Speaker 8: do whatever it wants in that region and not a

721
00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:27,400
Speaker 8: single Arab country, particularly those in the in the Gulf,

722
00:35:27,800 --> 00:35:29,960
Speaker 8: are going to do a thing about it. So, you know,

723
00:35:30,080 --> 00:35:33,680
Speaker 8: Israel doesn't need these normalization agreements anymore. Israel has shown

724
00:35:33,960 --> 00:35:36,600
Speaker 8: that it can do whatever it wants, It can strike

725
00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:39,680
Speaker 8: wherever it wants, and not a single one of these

726
00:35:39,719 --> 00:35:42,319
Speaker 8: decrepit regimes are going to do a thing about it.

727
00:35:42,760 --> 00:35:44,640
Speaker 9: And that's the cold fact at the end of the day.

728
00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:47,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's well said, Jeremy. Thank you so much.

729
00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:49,560
Speaker 3: Great to have your insights as always.

730
00:35:50,040 --> 00:35:50,680
Speaker 9: Thank you guys.

731
00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:56,759
Speaker 2: So some very interesting pulling results that we wanted to

732
00:35:56,760 --> 00:36:00,440
Speaker 2: dig into about gen Z and the gender divide and

733
00:36:00,520 --> 00:36:04,680
Speaker 2: the partisan divide in that particular generation. This comes courtesy

734
00:36:04,719 --> 00:36:07,680
Speaker 2: of NBC News, as tweeted out by Steve Krnaking. Put

735
00:36:07,719 --> 00:36:10,240
Speaker 2: this first one up on the screen. So the question

736
00:36:10,360 --> 00:36:14,120
Speaker 2: is how do you define success? What is your personal

737
00:36:14,160 --> 00:36:17,880
Speaker 2: definition of success? Which things here on this list are

738
00:36:18,000 --> 00:36:22,120
Speaker 2: most important that personal definition of success. So for gen

739
00:36:22,239 --> 00:36:26,640
Speaker 2: Z men who voted for Trump, number one is having children.

740
00:36:27,000 --> 00:36:30,719
Speaker 2: For gen Z women who voted for Harris, the very

741
00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:35,480
Speaker 2: bottom of the list is having children. Similarly, being married

742
00:36:35,600 --> 00:36:38,719
Speaker 2: comes in quite high. For gen Z men who voted

743
00:36:38,719 --> 00:36:41,680
Speaker 2: for Trump, twenty nine percent say that's important to their

744
00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:45,600
Speaker 2: personal definition of success. Gen Z women, being married is

745
00:36:45,800 --> 00:36:49,120
Speaker 2: at the bottom with children at just six percent. Let

746
00:36:49,160 --> 00:36:51,520
Speaker 2: me go through a few more of these because it's

747
00:36:51,520 --> 00:36:53,520
Speaker 2: interesting to just keep this up on the screen, so

748
00:36:53,960 --> 00:36:57,000
Speaker 2: you know, for both fulfilling job and career pretty close

749
00:36:57,040 --> 00:37:00,560
Speaker 2: to the top, like pretty important for gen Z men.

750
00:37:00,719 --> 00:37:04,680
Speaker 2: Financial independence, having money to do things you want, owning

751
00:37:04,760 --> 00:37:08,759
Speaker 2: your own home also, you know, pretty significant there, and

752
00:37:08,880 --> 00:37:13,000
Speaker 2: being grounded spiritually, making family community proud. Lower on the

753
00:37:13,120 --> 00:37:17,240
Speaker 2: list for gen Z men is having emotional stability, interesting

754
00:37:18,000 --> 00:37:21,040
Speaker 2: able to retire early, and using talents and resources to

755
00:37:21,200 --> 00:37:25,680
Speaker 2: help others. Those ones were more important in particularly the

756
00:37:25,800 --> 00:37:28,280
Speaker 2: using talents and resources to help others and having emotional

757
00:37:28,280 --> 00:37:31,400
Speaker 2: stability for gen Z women who vote for Harris. We

758
00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:34,200
Speaker 2: can go to the next one as well, which shows

759
00:37:34,320 --> 00:37:38,600
Speaker 2: the women who voted for Trump. Also for them, you know,

760
00:37:38,719 --> 00:37:40,839
Speaker 2: having children is not at the top of the list,

761
00:37:40,920 --> 00:37:42,920
Speaker 2: is kind of in the middle, and being married is

762
00:37:43,040 --> 00:37:46,839
Speaker 2: towards the bottom. So again, even among those who voted

763
00:37:46,880 --> 00:37:49,680
Speaker 2: for Trump, you see different views between men and women

764
00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:53,719
Speaker 2: on what their definition personal definition of success is. And

765
00:37:53,840 --> 00:37:57,200
Speaker 2: for men who vote for Harris, their list looks a

766
00:37:57,239 --> 00:37:59,840
Speaker 2: bit more like the women who voted for Harris, with

767
00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:03,520
Speaker 2: being married and having children more towards the bottom of

768
00:38:03,560 --> 00:38:06,680
Speaker 2: the list. So there's a lot that you could, you know,

769
00:38:06,800 --> 00:38:09,759
Speaker 2: pull out of the differences here. But what was kind

770
00:38:09,800 --> 00:38:13,000
Speaker 2: of your top line takeaway of what the significance is here.

771
00:38:13,400 --> 00:38:18,239
Speaker 1: Congratulations to Sheryl Sandberg, total lean in victory. You want.

772
00:38:18,440 --> 00:38:22,120
Speaker 1: Neoliberalism has officially won, and I think that the results

773
00:38:22,239 --> 00:38:25,239
Speaker 1: are disastrous. And look, you know, people can do what

774
00:38:25,280 --> 00:38:27,240
Speaker 1: they want to do. That's the point of the country.

775
00:38:27,320 --> 00:38:30,480
Speaker 1: I think, though, This really is downstream to me of

776
00:38:30,520 --> 00:38:33,680
Speaker 1: a lot of policy and also of culture and the

777
00:38:33,719 --> 00:38:37,120
Speaker 1: culture over the last fifteen years, particularly my generation, and

778
00:38:37,160 --> 00:38:39,439
Speaker 1: so you know, I guess gen Z as well, who've

779
00:38:39,440 --> 00:38:42,520
Speaker 1: been really inculcated in this, even more so than people

780
00:38:42,640 --> 00:38:45,560
Speaker 1: like me has been. If you work hard, you can

781
00:38:45,640 --> 00:38:48,120
Speaker 1: get what you want. You could do whatever you want

782
00:38:48,160 --> 00:38:50,640
Speaker 1: to do. And this is really driven by influencer culture

783
00:38:51,000 --> 00:38:53,759
Speaker 1: as well. You know, there's even a term for it,

784
00:38:53,840 --> 00:38:58,080
Speaker 1: like little treat culture, where people, because the big things

785
00:38:58,080 --> 00:39:02,600
Speaker 1: in life are so unaffordable, are constantly chasing little luxuries

786
00:39:02,680 --> 00:39:05,440
Speaker 1: like nice bags or a watch or any of this

787
00:39:05,480 --> 00:39:07,160
Speaker 1: other stuff. And there's nothing wrong with any of that

788
00:39:07,400 --> 00:39:09,759
Speaker 1: as long as you have your bigger basis covered. But

789
00:39:10,040 --> 00:39:13,000
Speaker 1: the bigger bases are so unattainable that they don't even

790
00:39:13,040 --> 00:39:16,799
Speaker 1: look or desire, or even consider as important any of

791
00:39:16,840 --> 00:39:19,200
Speaker 1: those things, and so they really focus a lot of

792
00:39:19,200 --> 00:39:24,680
Speaker 1: their stuff on hyper consumerism, travel, instagramification, et cetera. And

793
00:39:24,760 --> 00:39:27,200
Speaker 1: so yeah, I mean without even making it like a

794
00:39:27,239 --> 00:39:29,680
Speaker 1: political point, because I do think it's important to say.

795
00:39:29,719 --> 00:39:31,640
Speaker 1: You know, even gen Z women who voted for Trump,

796
00:39:31,760 --> 00:39:34,120
Speaker 1: having children is down there at the bottom. Being married

797
00:39:34,239 --> 00:39:36,760
Speaker 1: is only like twenty percent. Number one is still financial

798
00:39:36,800 --> 00:39:40,439
Speaker 1: independence and fulfilling job career. All I can think is, yeah,

799
00:39:40,480 --> 00:39:45,000
Speaker 1: it's just like total neo lib economic utility victory. And

800
00:39:45,160 --> 00:39:47,120
Speaker 1: I don't think it's how it should be, you know,

801
00:39:47,200 --> 00:39:49,399
Speaker 1: I don't. Again, I'm not gonna tell people how to live.

802
00:39:50,120 --> 00:39:51,680
Speaker 1: There's a lot of data. Basically it says if you

803
00:39:51,680 --> 00:39:53,160
Speaker 1: get married and have children, you're gonna be happier, are

804
00:39:53,160 --> 00:39:55,480
Speaker 1: going to live longer, You as an economic and family

805
00:39:55,560 --> 00:39:57,480
Speaker 1: unit are actually going to be more successful. You're gonna

806
00:39:57,480 --> 00:39:59,720
Speaker 1: make more money, You're gonna have a lot more fulfillment

807
00:39:59,719 --> 00:40:03,240
Speaker 1: throughout your life. Generally, that's what all of the data

808
00:40:03,440 --> 00:40:06,719
Speaker 1: tells us. But the kind of hyper individualism that we

809
00:40:06,840 --> 00:40:10,680
Speaker 1: have chased with consumerism as a society has driven us here.

810
00:40:11,280 --> 00:40:13,719
Speaker 1: I blame culture, but I really blame the economy as well,

811
00:40:13,719 --> 00:40:16,279
Speaker 1: because these are the things that are rewarded. Our debt

812
00:40:16,360 --> 00:40:20,000
Speaker 1: structures and we're turning into Japan. We're turning into Japan

813
00:40:20,120 --> 00:40:24,080
Speaker 1: where everyone is an individual worker. You know, having children

814
00:40:24,200 --> 00:40:26,200
Speaker 1: or being married is just very low on the totem pole.

815
00:40:26,520 --> 00:40:29,520
Speaker 1: A lot of women there, because of the hyper patriarchical society,

816
00:40:29,760 --> 00:40:32,040
Speaker 1: have no desire to be in a relationship because if

817
00:40:32,080 --> 00:40:34,439
Speaker 1: they are, they'll just be told to stay at home.

818
00:40:34,480 --> 00:40:35,960
Speaker 1: So they just don't get married. They don't want to

819
00:40:35,960 --> 00:40:38,160
Speaker 1: have children. They view it much more as a burden,

820
00:40:38,320 --> 00:40:40,000
Speaker 1: and that's how you end up a replacement rate of

821
00:40:40,200 --> 00:40:42,920
Speaker 1: one point two percent and stagnant growth, even though you're

822
00:40:42,960 --> 00:40:45,520
Speaker 1: one of the greatest, you know, civilizations in the history

823
00:40:45,520 --> 00:40:47,760
Speaker 1: of the world. So it's really sad to me, actually,

824
00:40:47,800 --> 00:40:49,480
Speaker 1: but there's a lot of people to blame for it.

825
00:40:49,600 --> 00:40:50,720
Speaker 1: I wish you were to turn around.

826
00:40:51,239 --> 00:40:53,600
Speaker 2: I want to I want to temper your sadness a bit,

827
00:40:54,000 --> 00:40:56,560
Speaker 2: because I will say the way this is phrased, like,

828
00:40:57,160 --> 00:41:02,400
Speaker 2: is this important to your personal definition of six sess Right? Obviously,

829
00:41:02,440 --> 00:41:05,040
Speaker 2: I'm a mom three kids. They're the most important thing

830
00:41:05,080 --> 00:41:07,120
Speaker 2: in my life. If you were to ask me if,

831
00:41:07,160 --> 00:41:10,640
Speaker 2: like just the act of having kids is my definition

832
00:41:10,719 --> 00:41:12,560
Speaker 2: of quote unquote success, I'd say.

833
00:41:12,600 --> 00:41:14,360
Speaker 3: No, right, having kids?

834
00:41:14,400 --> 00:41:19,080
Speaker 2: That are you know, having my kids like happy and

835
00:41:19,200 --> 00:41:22,239
Speaker 2: thrive and doing well in the world, pursuing the things

836
00:41:22,640 --> 00:41:25,880
Speaker 2: that I consider it core to my personal definition of success.

837
00:41:25,920 --> 00:41:28,280
Speaker 2: That's not a choice on this list though, Like anyone

838
00:41:28,360 --> 00:41:29,239
Speaker 2: can get knocked up.

839
00:41:29,560 --> 00:41:30,719
Speaker 3: It's not like, you know.

840
00:41:30,640 --> 00:41:35,000
Speaker 2: Congratulations, you're so successful if you do, and so I don't.

841
00:41:35,200 --> 00:41:37,560
Speaker 2: To me, is actually kind of weird to put having

842
00:41:37,680 --> 00:41:40,880
Speaker 2: kids as like your personal definition of success, like something

843
00:41:40,880 --> 00:41:43,560
Speaker 2: you have to accomplish. Now, maybe it's I don't know,

844
00:41:43,600 --> 00:41:48,400
Speaker 2: maybe the lens from a male perspective is a little different,

845
00:41:48,560 --> 00:41:53,840
Speaker 2: because having kids from a male perspective kind of entails like, Okay,

846
00:41:53,880 --> 00:41:55,920
Speaker 2: then I've got the marriage, I've got the you know,

847
00:41:56,040 --> 00:41:57,680
Speaker 2: financial stability to be able.

848
00:41:57,440 --> 00:41:58,840
Speaker 3: To pull this off, et cetera.

849
00:41:59,360 --> 00:42:03,080
Speaker 2: So I saw to feel like just that gender distinction

850
00:42:03,239 --> 00:42:06,040
Speaker 2: is coming through here too in the way that this

851
00:42:06,239 --> 00:42:09,600
Speaker 2: is phrased. So i'd say that, I mean, listen, we've

852
00:42:09,640 --> 00:42:13,000
Speaker 2: covered before there's certainly a big part of like political

853
00:42:13,040 --> 00:42:17,640
Speaker 2: divide in the values and views of gen Z men

854
00:42:17,719 --> 00:42:20,359
Speaker 2: versus women, and comes through even more when you talk

855
00:42:20,400 --> 00:42:22,600
Speaker 2: about gen Z men who voted for Trump versus gen

856
00:42:22,680 --> 00:42:25,839
Speaker 2: Z women who voted for Harris. But I also feel

857
00:42:25,880 --> 00:42:29,240
Speaker 2: like some of that may be a bit overstated because

858
00:42:29,280 --> 00:42:31,960
Speaker 2: we're seeing you know, if you look across the generation,

859
00:42:33,080 --> 00:42:36,080
Speaker 2: you see a lot of commonalities in values, for example,

860
00:42:36,120 --> 00:42:38,160
Speaker 2: with regard to how they view Israel. You know, you

861
00:42:38,200 --> 00:42:41,480
Speaker 2: see a lot of commonalities with regard to it's just

862
00:42:41,600 --> 00:42:45,400
Speaker 2: kind of broad frustration discussed with the political system overall.

863
00:42:46,880 --> 00:42:50,120
Speaker 2: You've seen there was there was a lot of triumphalism

864
00:42:50,160 --> 00:42:52,480
Speaker 2: from the from you know, from the Trump world and

865
00:42:52,520 --> 00:42:54,560
Speaker 2: from the right about the number of gen z Men

866
00:42:54,600 --> 00:42:57,040
Speaker 2: who voted for Trump. Those are some of the groups

867
00:42:57,080 --> 00:42:59,840
Speaker 2: that have shifted the most dramatically away from him, and

868
00:43:00,360 --> 00:43:02,960
Speaker 2: you know where his approval rating has fallen the most dramatically,

869
00:43:03,040 --> 00:43:07,280
Speaker 2: off a cliff. So I feel like a lot of this, honestly,

870
00:43:07,360 --> 00:43:10,239
Speaker 2: is still kind of shaking out with this generation as

871
00:43:10,280 --> 00:43:12,600
Speaker 2: they're more searching for anything that is anyone who's going

872
00:43:12,640 --> 00:43:14,520
Speaker 2: to deliver for them, anything that's going to make sense,

873
00:43:14,760 --> 00:43:17,200
Speaker 2: anything that's going to shake up a status quo that

874
00:43:17,320 --> 00:43:19,880
Speaker 2: is truly truly stacked against them in a lot of ways.

875
00:43:20,040 --> 00:43:21,799
Speaker 1: That's a great point. And look, a lot of us

876
00:43:21,800 --> 00:43:24,400
Speaker 1: could be young bias too. I mean, if I'm being honest,

877
00:43:24,440 --> 00:43:26,040
Speaker 1: you know, when I was twenty two, when you asked

878
00:43:26,040 --> 00:43:28,439
Speaker 1: me what my definition of success was, it definitely would

879
00:43:28,440 --> 00:43:30,600
Speaker 1: not be you know, children, wouldn't have thing kids. Yeah,

880
00:43:31,239 --> 00:43:32,560
Speaker 1: I would be totally transparent.

881
00:43:32,640 --> 00:43:32,799
Speaker 9: Right.

882
00:43:33,160 --> 00:43:36,120
Speaker 1: It took a while to kind of get there, so

883
00:43:36,280 --> 00:43:40,160
Speaker 1: that's definitely part of it. I do think, I think broadly,

884
00:43:40,800 --> 00:43:43,560
Speaker 1: I still just see the forces of the economy behind

885
00:43:43,600 --> 00:43:45,160
Speaker 1: all of this, because it's like you said, you know,

886
00:43:45,280 --> 00:43:48,680
Speaker 1: if the ultimate, highest and best consideration of success is

887
00:43:48,680 --> 00:43:51,279
Speaker 1: having children, the vision that the vision that you have

888
00:43:51,320 --> 00:43:54,000
Speaker 1: in your world with that is like owning a home

889
00:43:54,080 --> 00:43:57,320
Speaker 1: and having a stable job, and like everything that confers

890
00:43:57,760 --> 00:44:00,160
Speaker 1: kind of with that, which is probably why that is

891
00:44:00,160 --> 00:44:01,960
Speaker 1: out there. And it also fits with what I know

892
00:44:02,040 --> 00:44:04,040
Speaker 1: a lot of these guys are watching, you know, on

893
00:44:04,080 --> 00:44:08,200
Speaker 1: social media and the hustle culture, you know, Alex Hormosey

894
00:44:08,800 --> 00:44:11,120
Speaker 1: and all of this, which I don't even think there's

895
00:44:11,160 --> 00:44:15,160
Speaker 1: necessarily anything bad with all of that. It's just a

896
00:44:15,160 --> 00:44:18,680
Speaker 1: lot of the downstream stuff that is supposed to support

897
00:44:18,719 --> 00:44:21,760
Speaker 1: you does not exist, and so that's what I spend

898
00:44:21,760 --> 00:44:24,960
Speaker 1: a lot of my time really worrying about. I do

899
00:44:25,040 --> 00:44:27,239
Speaker 1: actually think this is more of an interesting question for

900
00:44:27,360 --> 00:44:31,879
Speaker 1: millennials because once you're my age, in your thirties, these

901
00:44:31,960 --> 00:44:35,760
Speaker 1: become very urgent questions actually about children, about getting married,

902
00:44:36,239 --> 00:44:38,560
Speaker 1: and much more. I would be curious to see this

903
00:44:38,640 --> 00:44:42,640
Speaker 1: poll for millennial men who voted for Trump versus millennial

904
00:44:42,680 --> 00:44:45,840
Speaker 1: women and others, because you know, millennial women, at this point,

905
00:44:46,000 --> 00:44:48,600
Speaker 1: you're like twenty nine to thirty five, Like you're well

906
00:44:48,719 --> 00:44:49,840
Speaker 1: established into your career.

907
00:44:50,160 --> 00:44:50,920
Speaker 4: It's like, is it work?

908
00:44:50,920 --> 00:44:50,960
Speaker 1: It?

909
00:44:51,040 --> 00:44:51,919
Speaker 4: Did it get what you want?

910
00:44:52,040 --> 00:44:55,160
Speaker 1: You want? Like you can theoretically say you could achieve

911
00:44:55,640 --> 00:44:58,520
Speaker 1: a total amount of success when you're twenty twenty. When

912
00:44:58,520 --> 00:45:00,000
Speaker 1: I'm twenty two, If you'd ask me where I am

913
00:45:00,200 --> 00:45:02,239
Speaker 1: right now, I'd be like, oh my god, I made it.

914
00:45:02,360 --> 00:45:05,160
Speaker 1: Like it's done. You know, it's like everything you could

915
00:45:05,160 --> 00:45:08,520
Speaker 1: have possibly envisioned and wanted. Is that the most important

916
00:45:08,520 --> 00:45:11,040
Speaker 1: thing in your life? No, obviously I'm married now a child, right,

917
00:45:11,080 --> 00:45:14,520
Speaker 1: and so your priorities kind of become much more in view.

918
00:45:15,239 --> 00:45:17,040
Speaker 1: So I would be curious to see how this shakes.

919
00:45:16,840 --> 00:45:17,759
Speaker 4: Out in a millennial view.

920
00:45:17,840 --> 00:45:18,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, and now.

921
00:45:19,280 --> 00:45:20,680
Speaker 1: That I'm talking to you, I don't know if it's

922
00:45:20,680 --> 00:45:22,440
Speaker 1: pulling a twenty two year old. Is there is the

923
00:45:22,520 --> 00:45:24,480
Speaker 1: right way? They literally your brains aren't even developed.

924
00:45:25,320 --> 00:45:25,560
Speaker 3: True?

925
00:45:25,680 --> 00:45:27,839
Speaker 2: Is an interesting snapchat though I mean I also would say,

926
00:45:27,840 --> 00:45:30,600
Speaker 2: like the language here it says fulfilling job or career.

927
00:45:30,880 --> 00:45:33,040
Speaker 3: We're very lucky because we have that right.

928
00:45:33,080 --> 00:45:35,759
Speaker 2: And I think the reality is in the system we

929
00:45:35,800 --> 00:45:37,560
Speaker 2: live in, you do spend most of your life at

930
00:45:37,560 --> 00:45:39,799
Speaker 2: your job. So for people to say, you know, that

931
00:45:40,040 --> 00:45:42,400
Speaker 2: is important in terms of my view of success. I

932
00:45:42,400 --> 00:45:44,400
Speaker 2: don't think that's so crazy because that is the structure

933
00:45:44,400 --> 00:45:46,040
Speaker 2: of society. I mean that kind of dovetails with your

934
00:45:46,080 --> 00:45:49,799
Speaker 2: point of like this is downstream of policy and the

935
00:45:49,880 --> 00:45:52,759
Speaker 2: economic structure that we have. Another piece, and this is

936
00:45:52,800 --> 00:45:55,120
Speaker 2: maybe a little bit more tangential, but it's been something

937
00:45:55,200 --> 00:45:58,359
Speaker 2: I'm thinking about with regard to you know, women who

938
00:45:58,680 --> 00:46:00,719
Speaker 2: not only have having children at the bottom of the list,

939
00:46:00,760 --> 00:46:02,959
Speaker 2: also have being married at the bottom of the list.

940
00:46:03,719 --> 00:46:06,920
Speaker 2: You have a lot of you have a whole ecosystem

941
00:46:06,960 --> 00:46:09,600
Speaker 2: of online influencers set up to tell you basically, like

942
00:46:09,800 --> 00:46:11,920
Speaker 2: you know, to treat women poorly and women suck and

943
00:46:12,040 --> 00:46:13,680
Speaker 2: don't be their friends and whatever.

944
00:46:13,840 --> 00:46:15,279
Speaker 3: So there's some of.

945
00:46:15,239 --> 00:46:17,960
Speaker 2: That messaging coming from men that's like okay, fine if

946
00:46:17,960 --> 00:46:20,360
Speaker 2: you hate me, like I don't need you. There's also

947
00:46:21,120 --> 00:46:26,400
Speaker 2: there's also an entire tech economy that is developing these

948
00:46:26,520 --> 00:46:30,080
Speaker 2: AI chatbots to convince everyone that they don't need anyone,

949
00:46:30,280 --> 00:46:32,399
Speaker 2: that you don't need human relationships. You can be best

950
00:46:32,400 --> 00:46:34,560
Speaker 2: friends with chat GPT, or you can be best friends

951
00:46:34,600 --> 00:46:36,480
Speaker 2: with GROC, or you can be best friends with you know,

952
00:46:36,800 --> 00:46:40,120
Speaker 2: metas ai chatbots, where you can invent them, create them,

953
00:46:40,160 --> 00:46:42,080
Speaker 2: and make them whatever you want. They're never going to

954
00:46:42,120 --> 00:46:44,120
Speaker 2: criticize you. They're not going to hurt your feelings. They're

955
00:46:44,160 --> 00:46:46,600
Speaker 2: never going to like steal your man. You know, They're

956
00:46:46,680 --> 00:46:49,759
Speaker 2: just going to be there to make you happy and

957
00:46:49,280 --> 00:46:53,040
Speaker 2: you don't need this messy world of human relations So

958
00:46:53,120 --> 00:46:55,279
Speaker 2: I think some of that is going on in the

959
00:46:55,320 --> 00:46:57,520
Speaker 2: background of all of this as well.

960
00:46:57,840 --> 00:47:01,040
Speaker 1: Absolutely, that's well said, and it's important, you know, at

961
00:47:01,080 --> 00:47:05,719
Speaker 1: a structural level, I believe if you build it, they

962
00:47:05,760 --> 00:47:11,120
Speaker 1: will come. So everything is downstream of availability. If the

963
00:47:11,160 --> 00:47:13,600
Speaker 1: house is not available, if the child, you know, if

964
00:47:14,320 --> 00:47:16,400
Speaker 1: it's too expensively. I think the average marriage in the

965
00:47:16,480 --> 00:47:19,040
Speaker 1: US costs like twenty five thousand dollars right now for

966
00:47:19,160 --> 00:47:21,760
Speaker 1: a wedding. I'm pretty sure that's right. I could be wrong.

967
00:47:22,000 --> 00:47:24,160
Speaker 1: I haven't looked at the statistics in quite a long time,

968
00:47:24,680 --> 00:47:27,239
Speaker 1: but you think about all the associated expert et cetera.

969
00:47:27,560 --> 00:47:29,640
Speaker 1: And you're just like, eh, you know, and if that's

970
00:47:29,680 --> 00:47:32,680
Speaker 1: going to be so wildly out of reach, then what

971
00:47:32,840 --> 00:47:34,839
Speaker 1: is available. It's like, Okay, we'll getting a job. Anyone

972
00:47:34,880 --> 00:47:37,560
Speaker 1: can get a job. Anyone can you know, hustle or

973
00:47:38,000 --> 00:47:42,040
Speaker 1: do anything, and that becomes more available. And so I

974
00:47:42,160 --> 00:47:45,400
Speaker 1: believe that, like the structure of what is available, also

975
00:47:45,480 --> 00:47:49,640
Speaker 1: determines the possibility of your imagination. And so that's what

976
00:47:49,640 --> 00:47:51,400
Speaker 1: I would like to fix more than anything.

977
00:47:51,480 --> 00:47:52,440
Speaker 3: I think that's true.

978
00:47:52,760 --> 00:47:56,120
Speaker 2: We do have an interesting Harry Enton thought about Trump

979
00:47:56,160 --> 00:47:58,960
Speaker 2: and his popularity and where he's losing ground with various groups.

980
00:47:58,960 --> 00:47:59,960
Speaker 3: This is e four. Guys.

981
00:48:00,000 --> 00:48:01,840
Speaker 7: Take a look at this, Look at the aggregat of

982
00:48:01,920 --> 00:48:04,640
Speaker 7: poles and look how long Donald Trump's net approval rating

983
00:48:04,680 --> 00:48:07,920
Speaker 7: has been negative. It has been every day since March twelfth,

984
00:48:07,920 --> 00:48:10,520
Speaker 7: and the average of polls, we're talking about one hundred

985
00:48:10,600 --> 00:48:13,280
Speaker 7: and eighty one days in a row in which Donald

986
00:48:13,320 --> 00:48:17,239
Speaker 7: Trump has been underwater, swimming with the fishes. There is

987
00:48:17,320 --> 00:48:19,520
Speaker 7: no good data for Donald Trump when looking at the

988
00:48:19,560 --> 00:48:23,480
Speaker 7: aggregate and looking overall, he has been negative for a

989
00:48:23,760 --> 00:48:27,040
Speaker 7: very long period of time. The vast majority of his

990
00:48:27,120 --> 00:48:28,520
Speaker 7: second presidens look at this.

991
00:48:28,600 --> 00:48:30,040
Speaker 9: These are all the key issues.

992
00:48:30,280 --> 00:48:34,000
Speaker 7: Donald Trump is underwater on all of them. Trade obviously,

993
00:48:34,040 --> 00:48:35,480
Speaker 7: tariffs have been a big thing. At the bottom of

994
00:48:35,480 --> 00:48:38,600
Speaker 7: your list minus seventeen points. The economy, which was the reason,

995
00:48:38,840 --> 00:48:40,920
Speaker 7: the reason he was elected to his second term to

996
00:48:40,960 --> 00:48:44,160
Speaker 7: fix the economy way underwater at minus fourteen points, Foreign

997
00:48:44,200 --> 00:48:46,840
Speaker 7: policy minus trump, and then I think mister John Berman

998
00:48:47,040 --> 00:48:49,080
Speaker 7: the key to issues at the top, because these have

999
00:48:49,120 --> 00:48:52,799
Speaker 7: been Donald Trump's strongest issues, crime and immigration. But get this,

1000
00:48:53,280 --> 00:48:56,840
Speaker 7: he is now underwater on both of these issues, if barely,

1001
00:48:57,040 --> 00:48:59,440
Speaker 7: but he's underwater on crime at minus two, immigration at

1002
00:48:59,480 --> 00:49:02,000
Speaker 7: minus three. On all the key issues, he is again

1003
00:49:02,200 --> 00:49:05,640
Speaker 7: swimming with the Fisher's consistency across the board. Two key

1004
00:49:05,640 --> 00:49:08,239
Speaker 7: groups that were so important to getting Donald Trump a

1005
00:49:08,280 --> 00:49:10,360
Speaker 7: second term, he did so much better than the traditional

1006
00:49:10,400 --> 00:49:13,239
Speaker 7: Republican among those under the age of thirty and Hispanics.

1007
00:49:13,239 --> 00:49:15,919
Speaker 7: Look at this in February among those under the age

1008
00:49:15,920 --> 00:49:18,240
Speaker 7: of thirty, hasn't that approval rating corn of CBS News

1009
00:49:18,239 --> 00:49:21,120
Speaker 7: plus two points. Look at where we are now negative

1010
00:49:21,160 --> 00:49:23,680
Speaker 7: thirty points. That's a thirty two point move in the

1011
00:49:23,680 --> 00:49:26,879
Speaker 7: wrong direction. And Hispanics, he was six points underwork. Look

1012
00:49:26,920 --> 00:49:30,359
Speaker 7: at this minus thirty four points that's a twenty.

1013
00:49:30,080 --> 00:49:31,880
Speaker 4: Eight point move since February.

1014
00:49:32,000 --> 00:49:34,880
Speaker 7: No wonder Donald Trump's in trouble. He's steady across the board,

1015
00:49:35,040 --> 00:49:37,359
Speaker 7: and since February, when he was least positive, he's only

1016
00:49:37,360 --> 00:49:40,400
Speaker 7: gotten significantly worse among two very key groups for his

1017
00:49:40,560 --> 00:49:41,799
Speaker 7: election back last year.

1018
00:49:42,120 --> 00:49:44,080
Speaker 2: I mean it, JEZI, Voters really are up for grabs.

1019
00:49:44,120 --> 00:49:45,919
Speaker 2: The idea that people are just locked in and that's

1020
00:49:45,960 --> 00:49:48,560
Speaker 2: that for some people. Yeah, there's a good per percentage

1021
00:49:48,600 --> 00:49:51,480
Speaker 2: of the country for which that is true. But these

1022
00:49:51,560 --> 00:49:54,360
Speaker 2: were really two of the key swing groups in this election,

1023
00:49:54,640 --> 00:49:56,760
Speaker 2: and they are not happy with what they're seeing.

1024
00:49:57,120 --> 00:50:00,160
Speaker 1: I agree that is the most important look. Elections change.

1025
00:50:00,320 --> 00:50:02,680
Speaker 1: They change all the time. It's one of the great lessons.

1026
00:50:02,960 --> 00:50:05,120
Speaker 1: One of the most exciting parts about covering this, and

1027
00:50:05,160 --> 00:50:07,160
Speaker 1: I try to drill it into people's heads every time

1028
00:50:07,480 --> 00:50:10,840
Speaker 1: before an election, is just look ninety six to two thousand,

1029
00:50:11,320 --> 00:50:13,640
Speaker 1: two thousand to two thousand and eight, two thousand and

1030
00:50:13,640 --> 00:50:17,120
Speaker 1: eight to twenty sixteen, twenty sixteen to twenty twenty four.

1031
00:50:17,400 --> 00:50:20,719
Speaker 1: Look at those radical changes that can all happen. By

1032
00:50:20,760 --> 00:50:23,000
Speaker 1: the way, even twenty I think twenty sixteen to twenty

1033
00:50:23,000 --> 00:50:25,280
Speaker 1: twenty was one of the crazies selections. If you'll remember

1034
00:50:25,320 --> 00:50:27,200
Speaker 1: Christal when we were looking at some of those South

1035
00:50:27,200 --> 00:50:29,320
Speaker 1: Texas numbers, I'll never forget it. Sitting at the desk

1036
00:50:29,680 --> 00:50:32,600
Speaker 1: and looking at Larae. I was like, I've never in

1037
00:50:32,640 --> 00:50:35,920
Speaker 1: my life could have imagined that, you know, South Texas

1038
00:50:36,040 --> 00:50:40,160
Speaker 1: latinos or would be flipping fifty points to Donald Trump.

1039
00:50:40,239 --> 00:50:42,760
Speaker 1: And it happened in three and a half years. Okay,

1040
00:50:42,840 --> 00:50:45,759
Speaker 1: So this is something that just you know, all politicians

1041
00:50:45,920 --> 00:50:48,920
Speaker 1: should notice, you should fight because you never know what

1042
00:50:49,040 --> 00:50:51,200
Speaker 1: actually could happen. And I do think that we are

1043
00:50:51,239 --> 00:50:53,880
Speaker 1: going to find that out big time in the midterm

1044
00:50:53,920 --> 00:50:54,800
Speaker 1: elections this time.

1045
00:50:54,920 --> 00:50:57,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, we will say, all right, guys, we're going to

1046
00:50:57,080 --> 00:51:01,000
Speaker 2: skip Tim Dillan for today. Sager and Emily Will we'll

1047
00:51:01,000 --> 00:51:03,279
Speaker 2: cover that click tomorrow because we talked too much about

1048
00:51:03,280 --> 00:51:06,520
Speaker 2: other things as per usual. But thank you guys so

1049
00:51:06,600 --> 00:51:08,680
Speaker 2: much for watching. Thank you for your support of the show.

1050
00:51:09,200 --> 00:51:12,080
Speaker 2: If you can become a premium subscriber Breakingpoints dot com.

1051
00:51:12,120 --> 00:51:14,680
Speaker 2: We take no dark money, guys, there's no dark money

1052
00:51:14,680 --> 00:51:17,719
Speaker 2: packs funding us. We don't talk to advertisers. We really

1053
00:51:17,719 --> 00:51:19,840
Speaker 2: do try to keep it as like pure as we

1054
00:51:19,920 --> 00:51:23,279
Speaker 2: possibly can around here, and you guys enable that so

1055
00:51:23,440 --> 00:51:25,920
Speaker 2: thank you so much and sober and Emily will see

1056
00:51:25,960 --> 00:51:27,239
Speaker 2: you guys tomorrow