WEBVTT - Bloomberg Daybreak: May 16, 2022 - Hour 1 (Radio) 0:00:03.400 --> 0:00:06.160 Live from the Bloomberg in Director Brooker Studios. This is 0:00:06.240 --> 0:00:10.119 Bloomberg Daybreak for Monday, May sixteen, twenty two. Coming up 0:00:10.119 --> 0:00:13.200 this hour, China's economy pays the price for the government's 0:00:13.240 --> 0:00:16.560 COVID zero policy, fumbing Sacks cuts its U S ecademic 0:00:16.600 --> 0:00:20.440 growth forecast, Finland and Sweden moved closer to joining NATO, 0:00:20.760 --> 0:00:23.160 and President Biden calls for action. And the wicked of 0:00:23.280 --> 0:00:26.000 mass shooting in Buffalo. It was a weekend of gun 0:00:26.079 --> 0:00:29.560 violence in Buffalo and other cities as well. Plus Pennsylvania's 0:00:29.560 --> 0:00:32.520 lieutenant governor suffered a stroke because he runs from the U. S. Senate. 0:00:32.760 --> 0:00:36.240 I'm Michael barn More, I'm John stash Our Sports. The 0:00:36.360 --> 0:00:39.160 Rangers are moving on. They beat the Penguins in overtime. 0:00:39.159 --> 0:00:41.240 In Game seven, it went for the Yankees, a tough 0:00:41.280 --> 0:00:45.879 loss for the Mets. That's all s train ahead on 0:00:45.960 --> 0:00:51.599 Bloomberg Daybreak on Bloomberg Eleveing Freeo, New York, Bloomberg one, Washington, 0:00:51.760 --> 0:00:55.800 d C, Bloomberg one oh six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine sixty, 0:00:55.880 --> 0:00:59.720 San Francisco, Syrius x M one nineteen and around the 0:00:59.760 --> 0:01:02.520 world Old on Bloomberg Radio dot Com and via the 0:01:02.560 --> 0:01:09.800 Bloomberg Business app. Good morning on John Tucker and I'm 0:01:09.880 --> 0:01:13.039 Karen moscowis and P futures are lower this morning. We're 0:01:13.040 --> 0:01:14.720 coming up to five o one on Wall Street, and 0:01:14.720 --> 0:01:17.119 we checked the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading 0:01:17.200 --> 0:01:20.280 day on Bloomberg S and P futures down four points. 0:01:20.680 --> 0:01:23.920 Now futures are up twenty two and NASDAG futures down 0:01:24.080 --> 0:01:27.039 thirty one. The decks in Germany is up tenth of 0:01:27.040 --> 0:01:30.040 a percent. Ten year treasury little change yell two point 0:01:30.120 --> 0:01:32.200 nine two percent, and they yield on the two year 0:01:32.319 --> 0:01:35.440 two point five nine percent. Nine back screwed oils down 0:01:35.480 --> 0:01:37.840 half percent or fifty seven cents at a hundred nine 0:01:37.880 --> 0:01:40.840 dollars ninety two cents of barrel, and the euro one 0:01:40.880 --> 0:01:44.600 point oh four three five against the dollar. John and Karen, 0:01:44.640 --> 0:01:48.920 we begin with disappointing data out of Asia. China's economy 0:01:49.000 --> 0:01:52.720 contracted in April as COVID lockdowns, dragging the industrial and 0:01:52.840 --> 0:01:56.480 consumer sectors down, and Bloomberg's day Breck Asia anchor Brian 0:01:56.560 --> 0:02:01.120 Curtis has details retail sales contracted eleven point one percent. 0:02:01.320 --> 0:02:03.920 That was weaker than a projected drop of six point 0:02:04.000 --> 0:02:07.760 six percent. Industrial output down two point nine percent from 0:02:07.760 --> 0:02:10.240 a year ago and worse than an estimate of a 0:02:10.280 --> 0:02:14.120 modest game. The unemployment rate rose to six point one percent, 0:02:14.400 --> 0:02:17.240 and that was higher than the forecast of six percent. Now. 0:02:17.280 --> 0:02:20.680 Despite the slowdown, China's Central Bank held back from cutting 0:02:20.680 --> 0:02:24.079 interest rates. Brian Curtis Spoomberg Day Break, A right, Brian, 0:02:24.120 --> 0:02:26.240 thank you all. Back here in the US, economists at 0:02:26.240 --> 0:02:29.320 Goldman Sachs are cutting their forecast for US growth. Let's 0:02:29.360 --> 0:02:32.040 get the latest live from Bloomberg's rand A Young in 0:02:32.080 --> 0:02:34.560 New York. Good morning, Reni Down, Good morning, Karen. Goldman 0:02:34.600 --> 0:02:38.120 Sachs economists see the US growing two point four percent 0:02:38.280 --> 0:02:42.440 this year at one point six percent three. That's down 0:02:42.520 --> 0:02:45.839 from two point six percent and two point two percent previously, 0:02:46.280 --> 0:02:49.320 and it's an adjustment to reflect the shakeout in financial 0:02:49.360 --> 0:02:53.799 markets as the Federal Reserve titans monetary policy. Goldman Sachs 0:02:53.880 --> 0:02:57.240 also projects the unemployment rate will rise to three point 0:02:57.240 --> 0:03:00.120 seven percent by the end of next year, after falling 0:03:00.120 --> 0:03:03.400 to three point four percent in coming months. Live in 0:03:03.440 --> 0:03:06.480 New York. I'm Nita Young, Bloomberg Day Break. Thanks for Nita. 0:03:06.600 --> 0:03:09.640 On the same day, Goldman cut its forecast the firm's 0:03:09.680 --> 0:03:13.440 former bloss Lloyd blank find says the US is at 0:03:13.480 --> 0:03:17.000 a very high risk for recession. It's definitely a risk. 0:03:17.200 --> 0:03:19.040 If I were running a big company, I would be 0:03:19.160 --> 0:03:20.880 very prepared for it. If I was a consumer, I'd 0:03:20.880 --> 0:03:23.160 be prepared for it. But it's not baked in the cake. 0:03:23.320 --> 0:03:26.520 Former Goldman SACS EO Lloyd blank Find made the comments 0:03:26.560 --> 0:03:30.079 on face donation from CBS, Catch the program Sutday Afternoons 0:03:30.080 --> 0:03:33.440 on Bloomberg Radio and one other note on Goldman this Morning. 0:03:33.480 --> 0:03:35.640 In an effort to retain talent, the bank will allow 0:03:35.760 --> 0:03:39.240 senior staff to take an unlimited number of vacation days 0:03:39.520 --> 0:03:42.440 as according to a company memo seen by Bloomberg News, 0:03:42.760 --> 0:03:46.240 junior employees at Goldman still have limits on vacation, but 0:03:46.280 --> 0:03:49.320 they'll be given at least two extra days off per year. 0:03:49.840 --> 0:03:53.720 And Karen another big company making moves to attract workers Walmart. 0:03:53.800 --> 0:03:56.480 He is unveiling a fast track path to a job 0:03:56.600 --> 0:03:59.920 as store manager, as the retailer seeks to bolster it's 0:04:00.000 --> 0:04:03.400 apply of managers in a tight labor market. Let's get 0:04:03.400 --> 0:04:06.920 more from Bloomberg's Dug Prisoner. The position of store manager 0:04:06.960 --> 0:04:09.840 typically pays more than two hundred thousand dollars a year, 0:04:09.920 --> 0:04:13.120 and traditionally the job takes years to get, but now 0:04:13.160 --> 0:04:16.920 Walmart is launching its College two career program. It will 0:04:16.920 --> 0:04:20.480 provide classroom training together with hands on experience and mentoring 0:04:20.800 --> 0:04:24.000 for recent and soon to be grad's. Top performers will 0:04:24.040 --> 0:04:27.000 be offered a role as an emerging coach. The position 0:04:27.040 --> 0:04:29.680 starts with pay of at least sixty five thousand dollars 0:04:29.720 --> 0:04:31.920 a year, with a goal of becoming a store manager 0:04:32.040 --> 0:04:35.479 within two years. In New York, on Doug Prisner Bloomberg Daybreak, 0:04:35.680 --> 0:04:37.560 all right, Doug, thank you, well, we do have some 0:04:37.720 --> 0:04:40.760 possible deal news this Monday morning, The Wall Street Journal 0:04:40.839 --> 0:04:43.840 is reporting Jet Blue Airways plans a tender offer for 0:04:43.960 --> 0:04:46.960 Spirit Airlines at thirty dollars a share in cash. The 0:04:46.960 --> 0:04:49.599 paper says Jet Blue plans to appeal directly to Spirit 0:04:49.680 --> 0:04:52.880 shareholders by launching the tender offer and hopes of pressuring 0:04:52.960 --> 0:04:57.000 Spirits management to re engage in negotiations. Traders appear skeptical, 0:04:57.040 --> 0:05:00.000 though Spirit shares are trading near twenty dollars in early trade. 0:05:00.440 --> 0:05:03.560 And another major story we're following, Karen involves the mass 0:05:03.560 --> 0:05:07.600 shooting in Buffalo over the weekend. The Justice Department investigating 0:05:07.640 --> 0:05:11.479 it as an act of racially moated violent, racially motivated 0:05:11.600 --> 0:05:15.839 violent extremism. The shooting left ten people dead and three wounded. 0:05:15.920 --> 0:05:18.679 A lot of the people shot were black, and eighteen 0:05:18.720 --> 0:05:21.599 year old white man was arrested. President Biden discussed the 0:05:21.640 --> 0:05:25.000 incident at the US Capital yesterday. We must all work 0:05:25.040 --> 0:05:29.200 together addressed to hate. The remains a stay. I'm the 0:05:29.279 --> 0:05:34.920 sole American hearts are heavy once again, but a resolve 0:05:35.839 --> 0:05:39.400 must never waiver. President Biden and surging police departments to 0:05:39.440 --> 0:05:42.719 spend federal law enforcement eight, saying it can help reduce 0:05:42.800 --> 0:05:46.640 gun violence well. John turning overseas now is another dramatic change, 0:05:46.680 --> 0:05:49.720 triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and NATO members are 0:05:49.839 --> 0:05:53.400 rallying around Finland and Sweden after the country's announced plans 0:05:53.400 --> 0:05:56.000 to join the Alliance. To get details now from Amy 0:05:56.040 --> 0:05:59.920 Morris in our Bloomberg newsroom in Washington. At the NATO 0:06:00.040 --> 0:06:02.960 ministers meeting in Berlin, U S Secretary of State Anthony 0:06:03.040 --> 0:06:07.159 Lincoln said Washington will support whatever decisions the two countries make. 0:06:07.480 --> 0:06:10.560 Long supported NATO's up indoor policy and the right of 0:06:10.600 --> 0:06:14.839 all countries to decide their own futures, their policies, their 0:06:14.839 --> 0:06:18.760 security arrangements. NATO members rallied around Finland and Sweden, with 0:06:18.839 --> 0:06:23.120 one country Turkey, voicing concerns. Sweden is sending diplomats to 0:06:23.160 --> 0:06:26.880 Ankara for talks, and NATO's Secretary General John Stoltenberg says 0:06:26.920 --> 0:06:30.359 he does not expect Turkey to delay the membership procedure 0:06:30.640 --> 0:06:33.240 in Washington, I may me Moore as Bloomberg daybreak all right, 0:06:33.279 --> 0:06:35.520 thanks Amy, another no doubt of year of involving the 0:06:35.520 --> 0:06:38.320 war in Ukraine. Germany says it plans to quit importing 0:06:38.400 --> 0:06:41.360 Russian oil by the end of the year. That's even 0:06:41.400 --> 0:06:44.000 if the European Union fails to agree on a band 0:06:44.320 --> 0:06:47.760 in its next set of sanctions. Rassia Shire, German oil 0:06:47.800 --> 0:06:51.440 consumption has already declined to twelve percent from about thirty 0:06:51.520 --> 0:06:54.839 five percent before the war began. Well, John, the price 0:06:54.880 --> 0:06:57.159 of wheat has skyrocket has since the start of the war, 0:06:57.240 --> 0:06:59.640 and it's climbing again today. Wheat price is stored by 0:06:59.680 --> 0:07:02.640 the x change limit after India moved to restrict exports. 0:07:02.720 --> 0:07:05.719 That shows how tight global food supplies are at the moment. 0:07:06.080 --> 0:07:08.919 We has risen about six this year. That's increased the 0:07:08.960 --> 0:07:12.720 cost of everything from red to cake and noodles again 0:07:12.800 --> 0:07:15.440 us in p futures are lower. This morning, straight ahead, 0:07:15.480 --> 0:07:18.120 your latest local headlines, plus a check of sports. This 0:07:18.600 --> 0:07:25.520 is Bloomberg Parfects Karen five O seven on Wall Street. 0:07:25.560 --> 0:07:27.640 Let's bring in Michael barn Now with more on what 0:07:27.720 --> 0:07:31.160 else is going on in New York and around the world. John, 0:07:31.200 --> 0:07:33.160 thank you very much. Sarah Moore on the mass shooting 0:07:33.160 --> 0:07:36.760 in Buffalo. Vigils were held across Buffalo after ten people 0:07:36.800 --> 0:07:39.680 were killed and three others wounded, and what officials are 0:07:39.680 --> 0:07:43.200 calling a racially motivated attack at a busy supermarket, Police 0:07:43.200 --> 0:07:46.280 saying the suspected gunman, who was eighteen in white, had 0:07:46.360 --> 0:07:51.240 researched the area that is about seventy black. Peyton Gendern 0:07:51.480 --> 0:07:54.480 appeared in court and pleaded not guilty to murder. New 0:07:54.560 --> 0:07:58.240 York Governor Kathy Uncle. I'm calling out the social media 0:07:58.400 --> 0:08:02.200 platforms where this hate be skewed and people are learning 0:08:02.200 --> 0:08:06.440 how to create guns and violence and weapons. Governor Hoco 0:08:06.560 --> 0:08:09.800 called for government action to control the spread of guns. 0:08:09.840 --> 0:08:13.160 One of those killed was a church dincin the church's pastor, 0:08:13.360 --> 0:08:16.280 Russell Bell. It boggles my mind at this young man 0:08:16.320 --> 0:08:20.600 traveled two hundred miles four hours to target our community. 0:08:20.920 --> 0:08:23.920 Pastor Bell says the victim, Heyward Patterson, who was helping 0:08:23.960 --> 0:08:26.880 to put groceries in another person's car when he was 0:08:26.960 --> 0:08:30.040 shot and killed. I'm ass shooting in California left one 0:08:30.080 --> 0:08:32.679 person dead and five others heard after a gunman opened 0:08:32.720 --> 0:08:36.760 fire inside a church in Laguna Woods, Orange County. Authorities 0:08:36.920 --> 0:08:39.800 say the suspect as an Asian man in the sixties 0:08:39.920 --> 0:08:43.480 who entered a Taiwanese luncheon at the church. Orange County 0:08:43.520 --> 0:08:46.199 Undershare of Jeff Halleck says the gunman was disarmed by 0:08:46.240 --> 0:08:49.640 members of the church and held until authorities came. We 0:08:49.679 --> 0:08:52.600 believe a group of church goers detained him and hog 0:08:52.640 --> 0:08:56.080 tight his legs with an extension court and confiscated at 0:08:56.120 --> 0:08:59.560 least two weapons from him. Under Sheriff Jeff Allix says 0:08:59.600 --> 0:09:02.280 they don't believe the gunman lives in the area. Two 0:09:02.280 --> 0:09:05.319 people were killed three others injured in a shooting near 0:09:05.360 --> 0:09:09.520 a flea market in North Harris County, Texas. The Sheriff's 0:09:09.520 --> 0:09:12.680 department says a fight led to that shooting. Gun violence 0:09:12.679 --> 0:09:14.920 in Milwaukee forced the city to impose a two night 0:09:14.960 --> 0:09:17.520 curve few for people twenty one and under. More than 0:09:17.559 --> 0:09:19.880 twenty people was shot in less than two hours in 0:09:19.920 --> 0:09:23.080 downtown Milwaukee over the weekend. One of the front runners 0:09:23.080 --> 0:09:24.920 in the race for a U. S. Senate seat in 0:09:24.920 --> 0:09:29.959 Pennsylvania sideline because of a stroke. Pennsylvania's Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman, 0:09:30.000 --> 0:09:34.000 who is atop the polls ahead of Tuesday's Democratic Senate primary, 0:09:34.120 --> 0:09:36.160 says he is on his way to a full recovery. 0:09:36.520 --> 0:09:39.680 The Biden administration today released a housing supply action plan 0:09:39.800 --> 0:09:43.160 meant to help create thousands of affordable housing units in 0:09:43.200 --> 0:09:46.160 the next three years. Global News twenty four hours a 0:09:46.240 --> 0:09:49.400 day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake, powered by more 0:09:49.440 --> 0:09:52.400 than twenty seven hundred journalists, analysts and more than a 0:09:52.440 --> 0:09:55.360 hundred twenty countries. And Michael Barr. This is Bloomberg, John, Michael, 0:09:55.400 --> 0:10:01.959 thank you, Yes five tena of Wall Street. Pan. That's 0:10:02.000 --> 0:10:05.600 time for the Bloomberg Sports Update. Good morning, John Stenshow, 0:10:05.640 --> 0:10:08.079 Good morning John. It was only a first round series, 0:10:08.120 --> 0:10:11.119 but man, what a series it was. Rangers and Penguins. 0:10:11.160 --> 0:10:14.000 It began at the Garden with triple overtime. It ended 0:10:14.040 --> 0:10:19.599 back at the Garden overtime once again. Fifteen seconds with 0:10:19.679 --> 0:10:23.920 the Dana Plantage top the right circle. Blue shit shoots. 0:10:26.760 --> 0:10:31.640 It's over pary scores and the Rangers of one Game 0:10:31.760 --> 0:10:36.440 seven hit overtime on leave a ball sounds sounded DVPN 0:10:36.480 --> 0:10:39.040 from the Ranger Day Maloney kind emotional. They're the Rangers 0:10:39.400 --> 0:10:42.200 lost that triple overtime series opener. They never let in 0:10:42.240 --> 0:10:44.600 the series until last night. They had trailed three games 0:10:44.640 --> 0:10:46.839 to one, and they won three in row and had 0:10:46.840 --> 0:10:49.400 to come from behind in all three. They trailed last 0:10:49.480 --> 0:10:51.760 night with six minutes left, Meeker's advantage that tied the 0:10:51.760 --> 0:10:54.000 game and then artemider and on the power play one 0:10:54.040 --> 0:10:57.920 at at four OT forty two saves for Igor, says 0:10:57.960 --> 0:11:00.880 turk In. The Penguins had fifteen more shot. It's on 0:11:01.080 --> 0:11:04.120 a round to Game one with the Carolina Hurricanes Wednesday 0:11:04.160 --> 0:11:07.400 in Raleigh. The other game seven also went overtime. Calgary 0:11:07.559 --> 0:11:10.240 beat Dallas, but Dallas Mavericks won their Game seven in 0:11:10.320 --> 0:11:13.360 Phoenix by thirty threes, and the Sons, who had the 0:11:13.440 --> 0:11:16.120 NBA's best record, are out the West Finals. Beat Dallas 0:11:16.120 --> 0:11:18.680 against Golden State, will be Miami and Boston. In the East, 0:11:19.040 --> 0:11:22.040 Celtics won Game seven over mil Walk by eight, the 0:11:22.120 --> 0:11:24.600 Mats to the ninth. Thendn't scored twice had the bases loaded. 0:11:24.640 --> 0:11:26.800 Pete Alonso at first appeared to have drawn a game 0:11:26.840 --> 0:11:29.840 time walk with the first base umpire called it strike three. 0:11:29.840 --> 0:11:32.600 In Seattle one eight to seven. Yankees won five one 0:11:32.600 --> 0:11:35.400 at Chicago despite being out hit four to two. The 0:11:35.520 --> 0:11:38.000 Pirates were out hit four nothing but one one nothing. 0:11:38.040 --> 0:11:41.000 That Cincinnati reads through a no hitter and lost. John 0:11:41.040 --> 0:11:44.320 Stashower Bloomberg Sports, John all right, Johns, thanks very much, 0:11:44.640 --> 0:11:46.480 and ahead of the cans shop it on Wall Street. 0:11:46.559 --> 0:11:49.839 Right now, the futures have turned mixed, dall futures of 0:11:49.960 --> 0:11:54.280 ten points, SMP futures six points slower, and the nansa 0:11:54.400 --> 0:11:58.480 key many futures. They are down forty one points. You 0:11:58.520 --> 0:12:07.880 are listening to bloom Bird Daybreak and just ahead, are 0:12:07.920 --> 0:12:10.719 the stock evaluations anymore attractive. We're gonna speak with Lori 0:12:10.840 --> 0:12:15.800 kalpas In of RBC Capital Markets. You're listening to Bloomberg Daybreak, 0:12:22.240 --> 0:12:25.640 markets headlines and breaking news twenty four hours a day 0:12:25.760 --> 0:12:28.720 at Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Business at and at 0:12:28.760 --> 0:12:38.439 Bloomberg Victape. This is a Bloomberg Business lash and I'm 0:12:38.480 --> 0:12:41.920 Cameron Moscow stocks in Europe are little changed. SMP futures 0:12:41.920 --> 0:12:45.000 are lower as traders way China's latest measures to support 0:12:45.040 --> 0:12:48.680 its economy after poor data fuels concerns about the global 0:12:48.679 --> 0:12:50.800 out book. And we check the markets every fifteen minutes 0:12:50.800 --> 0:12:53.240 throughout the trading day. On Bloomberg, U S and P 0:12:53.440 --> 0:12:56.360 futures down seven points at own future is little change, 0:12:56.679 --> 0:12:59.800 NASTACK futures down forty six. The decks in Germany's down 0:12:59.800 --> 0:13:03.000 abou two tenths of upper set ten year treasury little change. 0:13:03.000 --> 0:13:04.959 He'll two point nine two percent. They yield on a 0:13:05.040 --> 0:13:08.000 two year two point five nine percent NI make Scrude 0:13:08.040 --> 0:13:10.400 oil is down third pent or forty one cents at 0:13:10.320 --> 0:13:13.160 a hundred ten dollars twelve cents in barrel Comic school 0:13:13.280 --> 0:13:15.720 is down six tenths percent or ten dollars seventy cents 0:13:15.720 --> 0:13:19.120 at seventeen ninety seven fifty announced. The euro one point 0:13:19.280 --> 0:13:21.600 four two five against the dollar, British found one point 0:13:21.640 --> 0:13:23.880 two two two six, and the yen is at one 0:13:23.920 --> 0:13:26.800 twenty nine point three eight and bitcoin's lower down more 0:13:26.840 --> 0:13:29.520 than four and a half percent at twenty nine thousand, 0:13:29.559 --> 0:13:32.800 five fifty dollars. That's a Bloomberg Business Lash. Now here's 0:13:32.840 --> 0:13:35.640 Michael Barr with more unless going on around the world. Muchael, 0:13:35.640 --> 0:13:39.320 Good morning, Good morning Karen. NATO members rallied around Finland 0:13:39.360 --> 0:13:42.520 and Sweden after they announced plans to join the Alliance. 0:13:42.880 --> 0:13:46.520 It marks another dramatic change triggered by Russia's war in Ukraine. 0:13:46.960 --> 0:13:50.040 Authorities say the hite, eighteen year old gunman who killed 0:13:50.040 --> 0:13:53.320 ten people at a Buffalo supermarket during a rampage that 0:13:53.440 --> 0:13:56.719 targeted black people, had previously made a threat at his 0:13:56.880 --> 0:14:00.679 high school, but they say Peyton Gendron was never charged. 0:14:01.000 --> 0:14:04.240 In the NHL playoffs and exciting Game seven, the Rangers 0:14:04.280 --> 0:14:07.520 advanced after beating the Penguins and overtime for three. In 0:14:07.559 --> 0:14:10.959 the NBA Playoffs, the Celtics won their Game seven against 0:14:10.960 --> 0:14:15.959 the Bucks. In baseball, the Yankees won, the Mets, Red Sox, Orioles, Nationals, Giants, 0:14:15.960 --> 0:14:19.120 and A's all lost. Global news twenty four hours a 0:14:19.200 --> 0:14:22.080 day on air and on Bloomberg quick Take, powered by 0:14:22.080 --> 0:14:25.040 more than twenty hundred journalists and analysts, are more than 0:14:25.080 --> 0:14:27.440 a hundred twenty countries. I'm Michael Barr, and this is 0:14:27.440 --> 0:14:30.800 Bloomberg John, Michael, Thank you. Five twenty on walst reading 0:14:30.840 --> 0:14:33.600 and we are lying for the Bloomberg Interactor Brokers Studios. 0:14:33.640 --> 0:14:38.160 This is Bloomberg daybreak volatility that saw the SMP five 0:14:38.200 --> 0:14:42.120 hundred dipped to a thirteen month load last week before rebounding. 0:14:42.560 --> 0:14:45.400 Reminder that investing right now not for the faint of heart. 0:14:45.960 --> 0:14:47.680 Let's get you set up for the trading day head. 0:14:47.680 --> 0:14:50.520 We're joined out by Lori Calvacine ahead of US Equity 0:14:50.600 --> 0:14:55.360 Strategy at RBC Capital Markets. Lorie, Happy Monday to you, UM, 0:14:55.400 --> 0:14:59.000 stocks looking at any more attractive from the evaluation perspective, 0:15:00.040 --> 0:15:02.160 A happy Monday to YouTube John. And let me just say, 0:15:02.200 --> 0:15:04.120 I don't think investing in stocks is ever for the 0:15:04.120 --> 0:15:06.920 fame of heart, particularly now, UM. But look, I think 0:15:06.960 --> 0:15:09.560 that last week we did see an important development, which 0:15:09.600 --> 0:15:11.920 is that the three different versions of the top down 0:15:12.000 --> 0:15:14.080 price to earnings multiple that we watch for the the 0:15:14.160 --> 0:15:16.520 SMP five hundreds, the one based on last year's earnings, 0:15:16.520 --> 0:15:20.120 this year's earnings expectations, and next year's earnings expectations UM, 0:15:20.160 --> 0:15:22.680 all three of those are actually now slightly below their 0:15:22.720 --> 0:15:24.720 long term averages. And that's not to sit here and 0:15:24.760 --> 0:15:27.880 say that stocks are super cheap or deeply undervalued, but 0:15:27.960 --> 0:15:30.240 I do think we've made an important shift, which is 0:15:30.280 --> 0:15:32.920 that valuations are no longer a problem for this market, 0:15:33.200 --> 0:15:35.600 and valuations are starting to be a reason to buy 0:15:35.600 --> 0:15:38.000 this market. And you have the sort of say, what 0:15:38.080 --> 0:15:40.360 did this milestone achieve? I think it sort of tells 0:15:40.440 --> 0:15:42.680 us that it is okay to go out and bargain hunt. Now. 0:15:43.080 --> 0:15:48.640 What's so the institutional sentiment right now? Institutional sentiment is 0:15:48.680 --> 0:15:52.080 pretty lousy, but perhaps not quite as bad as it's 0:15:52.080 --> 0:15:54.880 been at certain past extremes. I think it's getting there 0:15:54.920 --> 0:15:58.400 in a hurry. We've talked about how institutional investor sentiment, 0:15:58.440 --> 0:16:00.560 while it has been bad, has really need to catch 0:16:00.680 --> 0:16:04.120 down to retail investor sentiment, which has been sitting basically 0:16:04.120 --> 0:16:07.000 at its worst level since the financial crisis. When we 0:16:07.040 --> 0:16:09.360 look at the CFTC data that we get weekly to 0:16:09.440 --> 0:16:12.440 monitor institutional investor sentiment, though I did talk about it 0:16:12.480 --> 0:16:14.200 a note we put out this morning, how you started 0:16:14.200 --> 0:16:17.360 to see some very important progress. We have finally started 0:16:17.360 --> 0:16:19.760 to get back down to some important lows um and 0:16:19.800 --> 0:16:21.760 if you look at contracts like the Russell two thousand 0:16:21.880 --> 0:16:24.720 or the Dow UM, we're actually at or below financial 0:16:24.720 --> 0:16:27.600 crisis lows. So I think that you know, it's hard 0:16:27.640 --> 0:16:29.800 to ring a bell at the bottom on an institutional 0:16:29.800 --> 0:16:31.720 investor sentiment, but I think you can at least start 0:16:31.760 --> 0:16:35.320 having that conversation of the four D fifty seven companies 0:16:35.320 --> 0:16:39.600 in the spire that have reported that Scent actually delivered 0:16:39.640 --> 0:16:44.120 positive earning surprises, how much comfort does that offer? So, look, 0:16:44.160 --> 0:16:46.360 I think markets are always trying to guess where earnings 0:16:46.360 --> 0:16:48.880 are headed and are less reactive to where earnings have been. 0:16:49.160 --> 0:16:51.480 That being said, I do think it's worth noting that 0:16:51.520 --> 0:16:54.720 the earnings back drop has been very, very resilient, and 0:16:54.760 --> 0:16:57.080 the reason that's important is that it speaks to the 0:16:57.120 --> 0:17:00.160 resiliency of corporate America to get through just about every 0:17:00.240 --> 0:17:04.400 crisis that uh, this economy UM and geopolitical situation can 0:17:04.400 --> 0:17:06.720 throw at it. So I think that we do have 0:17:06.880 --> 0:17:09.040 to take note of that resilience, and I think one 0:17:09.040 --> 0:17:11.320 thing that it has done is kept the earnings backdrop 0:17:11.359 --> 0:17:14.040 pretty stable for now, which really allows us to understand 0:17:14.119 --> 0:17:17.040 the valuation opportunity that is starting to open up. Um. 0:17:17.080 --> 0:17:19.680 From a KEE perspective, do you get a sense that 0:17:19.720 --> 0:17:23.480 the cost pressures are being passed on to customers to 0:17:23.600 --> 0:17:27.359 what extent of the margins being eaten? Away. Um. Absolutely, 0:17:27.400 --> 0:17:29.919 you know, we we're seeing some margin resiliency. Um. Of 0:17:29.920 --> 0:17:32.359 course companies, you know, some are are doing a better 0:17:32.520 --> 0:17:35.040 job than others of executing through. But if you look 0:17:35.080 --> 0:17:39.240 at transcript searches for commentary on pricing, UM, they're absolutely 0:17:39.280 --> 0:17:41.720 through the roof. We saw that back in January, we're 0:17:41.720 --> 0:17:45.080 seeing that again recently. And you know that that is 0:17:45.119 --> 0:17:47.760 how companies are defending their margins and also passing the 0:17:47.760 --> 0:17:50.119 prices along to consumers. You know, it's really one of 0:17:50.119 --> 0:17:52.320 the key reasons for the inflation problem that we have 0:17:52.520 --> 0:17:55.920 right now. Um. But for now, most companies are telling 0:17:56.000 --> 0:17:57.960 us that they are still able to pass pricing through. 0:17:58.800 --> 0:18:02.520 It's hard to account out the American consumer history would 0:18:02.520 --> 0:18:05.520 dictate that we we get retail sales figures tomorrow, what 0:18:05.560 --> 0:18:09.240 do you expect. So look, I I don't forecast the 0:18:09.280 --> 0:18:11.760 weekly or the monthly retail sales data, but what I 0:18:11.760 --> 0:18:13.800 will tell you is that we are also getting a 0:18:13.880 --> 0:18:17.600 number of important retailers who are reporting earnings coming up 0:18:17.640 --> 0:18:20.040 as well. And I think between the two, you know, 0:18:20.080 --> 0:18:22.320 what investors are really gonna want to see is signs 0:18:22.320 --> 0:18:26.080 of that consumer resiliency that is science that it is continuing. 0:18:26.119 --> 0:18:28.200 I think one of the things I've noticed in reporting 0:18:28.200 --> 0:18:31.600 season so far is that good focus companies, things related 0:18:31.640 --> 0:18:34.680 the cars, things related to home homes, those have been 0:18:34.720 --> 0:18:37.240 more likely to to note some problems and blame the 0:18:37.280 --> 0:18:40.080 macro um if peoples on the services side things have 0:18:40.160 --> 0:18:41.959 been quite stronger. So that's one of the things I'm 0:18:42.000 --> 0:18:44.680 going to be looking for and upcoming data releases. Are 0:18:44.720 --> 0:18:46.919 we still seeing that shift from goods to services? And 0:18:46.920 --> 0:18:50.159 does the overall consumers still look okay? Seconds left? Can 0:18:50.200 --> 0:18:55.320 we take refuge in defensive shares? Look, I understand that 0:18:55.359 --> 0:18:57.280 there are big risks to market. You know, if if 0:18:57.320 --> 0:18:59.400 the if the recent lows don't hold, I could see 0:18:59.400 --> 0:19:01.919 another big drop um. But look, I will tell you 0:19:01.960 --> 0:19:05.560 defensive sectors are getting so overvalued relative to secular growth. 0:19:05.600 --> 0:19:08.560 In particular, I have a very hard time recommending them 0:19:08.560 --> 0:19:10.840 at this point. And I know I shouldn't ask, but 0:19:10.920 --> 0:19:15.159 I will. What's the recession risk? The recession risk, you know, 0:19:15.200 --> 0:19:17.879 if you look at the Bloomberg data among professional forecasters, 0:19:17.920 --> 0:19:20.119 I think it's around thirty that that's a little bit 0:19:20.160 --> 0:19:22.400 higher than what our economists would tell you. My view 0:19:22.480 --> 0:19:25.439 is that they've risen, but it's not it's not anything 0:19:25.480 --> 0:19:27.640 that's been predetermined yet, I think the jury is still out, 0:19:27.760 --> 0:19:30.280 always putting glory on the spot. Thanks a lot law 0:19:30.359 --> 0:19:34.320 appreciated Lori Calvacine, ahead of US equity strategist at RBC 0:19:34.480 --> 0:19:37.600 Capital Markets and head of the cash open on Wall Street. 0:19:38.119 --> 0:19:40.720 The futures right now all in the red dal futures 0:19:40.720 --> 0:19:45.040 down twenty points. Speman and futures there are eleven points 0:19:45.119 --> 0:19:49.280 lower hand than as the Emmitti futures down fifty nine points. 0:19:49.640 --> 0:19:51.919 As we look at treasures right now, the tenure yield 0:19:51.960 --> 0:19:54.159 to ninety one on the two year yield in the 0:19:54.240 --> 0:19:59.480 US at two point five n you're listening the Bloomberg 0:19:59.520 --> 0:20:07.359 day Break Day Bray, brought to you by the New 0:20:07.400 --> 0:20:09.560 York Community of Trust. Your name will live on as 0:20:09.560 --> 0:20:12.200 a champion of the causes you care about for years 0:20:12.240 --> 0:20:14.560 to come through a charitable bequest to the New York 0:20:14.600 --> 0:20:23.080 Community Trust. Learn more at Philanthropist dot n YC. Broadcasting 0:20:23.200 --> 0:20:26.879 Vibe from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio in New York, 0:20:26.960 --> 0:20:30.920 Bloomberg Living Free on to Washington, d C, Bloomberg one 0:20:31.040 --> 0:20:34.280 to Boston, Bloomberg one, O six one to San Francisco 0:20:34.359 --> 0:20:37.800 Bloomberg nine sixty to the country, Sirius XM too one, 0:20:37.880 --> 0:20:40.800 nine ten, and around the globe, the Bloomberg Business app 0:20:40.920 --> 0:20:50.280 and Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. He's 0:20:50.320 --> 0:20:52.879 five thirty on Wall Street. Good morning, I'm John Tucker 0:20:53.200 --> 0:20:55.880 and I'm Carrot Moscow. We're just about four hours away 0:20:55.960 --> 0:20:57.840 from the open of US trading. Let's get you up 0:20:57.840 --> 0:20:59.239 to day in the news. You need to know at 0:20:59.280 --> 0:21:01.960 this hour, we've again with the economic data out of China. 0:21:02.040 --> 0:21:06.360 Industrial output and retail sales fell in April. Well, unemployment climbed. 0:21:06.600 --> 0:21:10.159 COVID lockdowns are being blamed for the constraction. Chat A, 0:21:10.520 --> 0:21:13.879 chief Asia economist and Morgan Stanley says the outlook for 0:21:14.280 --> 0:21:18.680 China remains strong once it moves past its COVID zero policy. 0:21:19.000 --> 0:21:22.640 You do need solution to this near zero COVID policy. 0:21:22.960 --> 0:21:26.920 It's not about just the economic policy easing itself. Now. 0:21:26.960 --> 0:21:29.320 We need to see that, you know, economy gets going 0:21:29.720 --> 0:21:33.920 with freeing up of restrictions on mobility. Chat Aa says 0:21:34.040 --> 0:21:37.880 China's supply chain constraints also appear to be easy bank 0:21:37.920 --> 0:21:41.400 here in the US, Golden Sax cutting growth forecast. Bloomberg's 0:21:41.400 --> 0:21:43.720 Reney the Young joins US Live in New York with more. 0:21:43.800 --> 0:21:47.000 Good morning Rene, Good morning John. Goldman. SAX economists see 0:21:47.000 --> 0:21:49.840 the US growing two point four percent this year and 0:21:50.040 --> 0:21:53.720 one point six percent ine. That's down from two point 0:21:53.800 --> 0:21:57.160 six percent and two point two percent. It's an adjustment 0:21:57.240 --> 0:22:00.239 reflecting the shakeout in financial markets as the at A 0:22:00.320 --> 0:22:05.320 reserve titans monetary policy. Golpen also projects unemployment to rise 0:22:05.440 --> 0:22:08.440