1 00:00:03,680 --> 00:00:06,720 Speaker 1: On this episode of Newtsworld. The White House warned this 2 00:00:06,840 --> 00:00:10,480 Speaker 1: week the Russia's invasion of Ukraine could happen at any time. 3 00:00:11,119 --> 00:00:13,520 Speaker 1: The build up of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border 4 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:18,919 Speaker 1: has challenged the By demonistration's global military strategy and have fastened. 5 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:22,280 Speaker 1: Anything happened last week that caught my attention in much 6 00:00:22,280 --> 00:00:26,760 Speaker 1: of the world. Russia's President Vladimir Putin met with China's 7 00:00:26,800 --> 00:00:31,040 Speaker 1: President Jijin Ping in Beijing as a show of solidarity 8 00:00:31,080 --> 00:00:34,040 Speaker 1: between the two countries right before the start of the 9 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:37,440 Speaker 1: Beijing Winter Olympics. It was the first face to face 10 00:00:37,520 --> 00:00:40,760 Speaker 1: meeting Jius held in nearly two years with the world leader. 11 00:00:41,400 --> 00:00:44,720 Speaker 1: While many Western nations called for a diplomatic boycott of 12 00:00:44,760 --> 00:00:48,599 Speaker 1: the Olympics, there was Putin standing right next to Ji, 13 00:00:48,880 --> 00:00:51,920 Speaker 1: flaunting his relationship with communist China to the rest of 14 00:00:51,920 --> 00:00:54,480 Speaker 1: the world. And the question of many minds in the 15 00:00:54,520 --> 00:00:57,560 Speaker 1: West right now is how far is the by demonstration 16 00:00:57,640 --> 00:01:00,800 Speaker 1: willing to go to defend Ukraine's border against the Russian 17 00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:04,920 Speaker 1: invasion and will they sat up to China's threats towards Taiwa. 18 00:01:05,520 --> 00:01:07,839 Speaker 1: We seem to have come to an initial face off 19 00:01:08,240 --> 00:01:11,639 Speaker 1: with NATO and the Western democratic nations on one side, 20 00:01:12,080 --> 00:01:16,399 Speaker 1: and autocratic Russia and China standing in solidarity and thumbing 21 00:01:16,480 --> 00:01:19,880 Speaker 1: their noses at us. How we manage these global challenges 22 00:01:19,920 --> 00:01:22,360 Speaker 1: moving forward, I think is a real test for the 23 00:01:22,480 --> 00:01:25,520 Speaker 1: entire world and will in fact to find a great 24 00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:28,560 Speaker 1: deal of the future of the human race. Here to 25 00:01:28,600 --> 00:01:31,479 Speaker 1: help provide some context to the events of the last 26 00:01:31,480 --> 00:01:35,479 Speaker 1: several weeks, I'm really pleased to welcome my guest, doctor 27 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:39,840 Speaker 1: Waifung Jong. Doctor Jong is a Senior Research Fellow at 28 00:01:39,840 --> 00:01:52,320 Speaker 1: the Marcadis Center at George Mason University. Thank you for 29 00:01:52,480 --> 00:01:55,320 Speaker 1: joining me in Newts World. You know, if you don't mind, 30 00:01:55,320 --> 00:01:57,240 Speaker 1: I'd like to start with a bit of your background, 31 00:01:57,800 --> 00:02:02,000 Speaker 1: because it's really impressive. HD and a Master of Science 32 00:02:02,040 --> 00:02:06,840 Speaker 1: and Managerial Economics and Strategy from Northwestern University, Master of 33 00:02:06,880 --> 00:02:10,080 Speaker 1: Economics and Master of Philosophy, degrees in economics from the 34 00:02:10,120 --> 00:02:14,079 Speaker 1: University of Hong Kong Ba and Business administration from Shantu 35 00:02:14,240 --> 00:02:17,919 Speaker 1: University in China. Currently a senior research fellow at the 36 00:02:17,960 --> 00:02:23,120 Speaker 1: Mericatas Center at George Mason University, focusing on bridging natural 37 00:02:23,240 --> 00:02:28,200 Speaker 1: language processing and machine learning to economic policy studies. You 38 00:02:28,320 --> 00:02:33,000 Speaker 1: also study political economy US China Economic relations, China's economic 39 00:02:33,080 --> 00:02:37,000 Speaker 1: issues and fairness and artificial applications. And you've been a 40 00:02:37,040 --> 00:02:40,000 Speaker 1: research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. You were born 41 00:02:40,040 --> 00:02:42,320 Speaker 1: in China and raised there, you first came to the 42 00:02:42,400 --> 00:02:45,720 Speaker 1: US to attend graduate school. So I mean, first want 43 00:02:45,760 --> 00:02:49,440 Speaker 1: me to say, I'm impressed you've had quite a career already. First, 44 00:02:49,520 --> 00:02:51,400 Speaker 1: mister speaker, thank you very much for having me. And 45 00:02:51,480 --> 00:02:54,040 Speaker 1: it's a pleasure to chat with you. So it's been 46 00:02:54,080 --> 00:02:56,560 Speaker 1: a journey, like you said, coming all the way from 47 00:02:56,560 --> 00:02:58,720 Speaker 1: a growing up in China and coming all the way 48 00:02:58,760 --> 00:03:01,280 Speaker 1: to now being in the United States and doing policy 49 00:03:01,360 --> 00:03:05,040 Speaker 1: research in the US China relations area. What part of 50 00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:07,440 Speaker 1: China were you born in. I was born in the 51 00:03:07,480 --> 00:03:10,440 Speaker 1: province of Guangdong, which is right next to Hong Kong, 52 00:03:10,639 --> 00:03:14,400 Speaker 1: which was really the first area to commercially really develop 53 00:03:14,440 --> 00:03:17,840 Speaker 1: in the modern period, right, And I was born actually 54 00:03:18,280 --> 00:03:21,800 Speaker 1: soon after the beginning of the economic reform program in 55 00:03:21,880 --> 00:03:25,400 Speaker 1: China in late nineteen seventies. And the year I was 56 00:03:25,480 --> 00:03:28,600 Speaker 1: born was also the first year the one child policy 57 00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:32,520 Speaker 1: was officially implemented in the province that I grew up in. Well, 58 00:03:32,560 --> 00:03:34,920 Speaker 1: I'm curious how big an impact was that there was 59 00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:40,600 Speaker 1: a gigantic break with historic Chinese patterns, wasn't it right? 60 00:03:40,640 --> 00:03:44,840 Speaker 1: So I remember growing up the atmosphere in terms of 61 00:03:44,880 --> 00:03:49,920 Speaker 1: the economy was more emphasis on reforming the economic system, 62 00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:54,320 Speaker 1: being more commercial, entrepreneurial, and everything is about growth, and 63 00:03:54,360 --> 00:03:57,360 Speaker 1: that's about learning from the West, which is basically learning 64 00:03:57,360 --> 00:04:00,520 Speaker 1: from the best, and that eventually led to was the 65 00:04:00,560 --> 00:04:04,120 Speaker 1: set of intellectual property in other countries as well. But 66 00:04:04,200 --> 00:04:06,920 Speaker 1: the general spirit of catching up with the United States 67 00:04:07,000 --> 00:04:10,400 Speaker 1: is the main focus. If I understand it correctly, feel 68 00:04:10,440 --> 00:04:13,960 Speaker 1: free to educate me on this. But growing up in Guangdong, 69 00:04:14,520 --> 00:04:18,560 Speaker 1: you would have spoken with Cantonese rather than Mandarin, that's right, 70 00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:22,520 Speaker 1: And that's also the language spoken in Hong Kong. And 71 00:04:22,760 --> 00:04:25,120 Speaker 1: Hong Kong is also a place very special to me 72 00:04:25,200 --> 00:04:28,880 Speaker 1: because that was my first stopped after leaving mainland China. 73 00:04:29,000 --> 00:04:31,640 Speaker 1: After I finished college, I went to Hong Kong, spent 74 00:04:31,680 --> 00:04:34,480 Speaker 1: a few years there and people spoke the same language there, 75 00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:37,039 Speaker 1: And after spending a few years in Hong Kong, I 76 00:04:37,080 --> 00:04:41,280 Speaker 1: came to Northwestern from my PhD. How different in that 77 00:04:41,400 --> 00:04:45,479 Speaker 1: period was life for the average person in Hong Kong 78 00:04:45,880 --> 00:04:49,599 Speaker 1: from life in Guangzhou. When I went to Hong Kong, 79 00:04:49,600 --> 00:04:52,800 Speaker 1: it was in mid two thousand, and that was the 80 00:04:52,880 --> 00:04:56,640 Speaker 1: time when the tide was already started to turn. So 81 00:04:56,680 --> 00:04:59,640 Speaker 1: that was about less than ten years since the hanover 82 00:05:00,400 --> 00:05:03,359 Speaker 1: from the British back to China. And we have seen 83 00:05:03,800 --> 00:05:06,960 Speaker 1: back then already that more and more key positions in 84 00:05:07,000 --> 00:05:09,080 Speaker 1: the Hong Kong government and in the Hong Kong society 85 00:05:09,160 --> 00:05:13,360 Speaker 1: being gradually taken over by pro Beijing people. The economy 86 00:05:13,440 --> 00:05:16,880 Speaker 1: was doing well, and it was more advanced, obviously compared 87 00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:19,960 Speaker 1: to Guangdong, despite the fact that Guandong is probably the 88 00:05:20,000 --> 00:05:23,599 Speaker 1: most open minded place in mainland China. If I would 89 00:05:23,640 --> 00:05:26,240 Speaker 1: put a simple analogy to I think Hong Kong at 90 00:05:26,279 --> 00:05:29,640 Speaker 1: that time was probably zero point five of a free world, 91 00:05:30,360 --> 00:05:33,039 Speaker 1: now as I would say maybe zero point one. It's 92 00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:35,840 Speaker 1: been sad to watch the end of the idea of 93 00:05:36,279 --> 00:05:40,120 Speaker 1: two systems in one state is rapidly becoming one system 94 00:05:40,160 --> 00:05:43,320 Speaker 1: in one state, and I think has actually made it 95 00:05:43,360 --> 00:05:46,560 Speaker 1: harder for them to talk with Taiwan because they've watched 96 00:05:46,600 --> 00:05:49,839 Speaker 1: what's happened. Yeah. In fact, I think that one country 97 00:05:49,839 --> 00:05:53,000 Speaker 1: too system was not supposed to work anyway, and Beijing 98 00:05:53,120 --> 00:05:56,000 Speaker 1: kind of knew that, because I'd like to point out 99 00:05:56,000 --> 00:05:58,599 Speaker 1: the actually the very first experiment of one country too 100 00:05:58,680 --> 00:06:02,919 Speaker 1: system was actually in te Bad because when China annects 101 00:06:02,960 --> 00:06:06,200 Speaker 1: the Tea Bad in nineteen fifties, the deal with the 102 00:06:06,240 --> 00:06:09,400 Speaker 1: Tibetan government with the Dalai Lama was actually to let 103 00:06:09,400 --> 00:06:13,120 Speaker 1: Tibet have some sort of autonomy under the communist regime, 104 00:06:13,680 --> 00:06:16,680 Speaker 1: and that quickly broke apart. Why else would we see 105 00:06:16,760 --> 00:06:20,080 Speaker 1: Dalai Lama now living in India, right, And so the 106 00:06:20,200 --> 00:06:22,920 Speaker 1: deal with Hong Kong was similar to that, and it's 107 00:06:22,920 --> 00:06:25,680 Speaker 1: only a necessity that eventually it didn't go as far 108 00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:29,200 Speaker 1: well in the Tibetan case though, I mean, you have 109 00:06:29,360 --> 00:06:34,840 Speaker 1: a Buddhist system which is I think fundamentally not reconcilable 110 00:06:35,520 --> 00:06:39,400 Speaker 1: with the two totalitarian model that Mao had developed and 111 00:06:39,400 --> 00:06:42,440 Speaker 1: the Jijian Pin is implementing. I'd been looking at China 112 00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:46,600 Speaker 1: since about nineteen sixty and I had completely misunderstood dun 113 00:06:46,720 --> 00:06:50,640 Speaker 1: Chopin and thought of him as a modernizer in a 114 00:06:50,720 --> 00:06:55,160 Speaker 1: broad sense, when in fact he apparently wanted to modernize 115 00:06:55,200 --> 00:06:58,480 Speaker 1: the economy in order to keep people comfortable with the dictatorship, 116 00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:02,360 Speaker 1: which almost nobody in the Western elites understood that, and 117 00:07:02,400 --> 00:07:05,640 Speaker 1: I confess I was one of them. But in that context, 118 00:07:06,240 --> 00:07:12,440 Speaker 1: it's hard to imagine how a Buddhist theocracy could ever 119 00:07:12,560 --> 00:07:17,200 Speaker 1: have been compatible with the essence of the Chinese communist 120 00:07:17,240 --> 00:07:20,280 Speaker 1: to totalitary and system. Am I missing something? Or is 121 00:07:20,320 --> 00:07:23,800 Speaker 1: that a core challenge for Jesian paying that his very 122 00:07:23,920 --> 00:07:28,679 Speaker 1: system requires an absorbing change almost every day it touches. 123 00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:32,000 Speaker 1: I think, mister speaker, you're exactly right, and I would 124 00:07:32,000 --> 00:07:34,559 Speaker 1: actually argue the same in the case of Hong Kong, 125 00:07:35,000 --> 00:07:38,560 Speaker 1: because the people in Hong Kong have had some taste 126 00:07:38,560 --> 00:07:43,000 Speaker 1: of freedom under the British rule. Not exact democracy, but 127 00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:46,520 Speaker 1: at least people got to vote to certain offices, not 128 00:07:46,600 --> 00:07:49,880 Speaker 1: the chief is executive office, but at least some local 129 00:07:50,000 --> 00:07:53,240 Speaker 1: lawmakers office. And so I think the Hong Kong people 130 00:07:53,280 --> 00:07:56,560 Speaker 1: had some taste. They had one step in the free world, 131 00:07:56,800 --> 00:08:01,520 Speaker 1: and that's exactly what's not reconcilable with the regime in China. 132 00:08:01,600 --> 00:08:04,200 Speaker 1: So it's bound to end in my view. It's very 133 00:08:04,280 --> 00:08:06,680 Speaker 1: sad to see what's happening, but I think it's a necessity. 134 00:08:07,080 --> 00:08:11,920 Speaker 1: I'm curious. You're at Shantu University for your bachelor's then 135 00:08:11,960 --> 00:08:14,680 Speaker 1: you go to the university of Hong Kong. Then you 136 00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:19,080 Speaker 1: go to Northwestern, which was the bigger culture shock. To 137 00:08:19,120 --> 00:08:21,960 Speaker 1: go from Shantu to the University of Hong Kong or 138 00:08:22,000 --> 00:08:25,160 Speaker 1: you go from Hong Kong to Northwestern, I would say 139 00:08:25,240 --> 00:08:29,520 Speaker 1: definitely the transition from Shantou to Hong Kong, missus speaker. 140 00:08:29,560 --> 00:08:31,880 Speaker 1: I have to tell you this story. It really shocked 141 00:08:31,880 --> 00:08:34,840 Speaker 1: me when I first arrived at the University of Hong Kong, 142 00:08:34,880 --> 00:08:38,040 Speaker 1: the oldest university in Hong Kong, and I stepped into 143 00:08:38,120 --> 00:08:40,320 Speaker 1: the campus and one of the very first things that 144 00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:45,000 Speaker 1: I saw was a gigantic sculpture in red color, bloody 145 00:08:45,000 --> 00:08:47,920 Speaker 1: red color, that body pilling up to the top, which 146 00:08:47,960 --> 00:08:49,920 Speaker 1: is known as the Pillar of Shame. I didn't know 147 00:08:49,960 --> 00:08:52,240 Speaker 1: that back then. I was like, one, is this ugly, 148 00:08:52,400 --> 00:08:55,880 Speaker 1: disturbing thing standing right here? And I came up close 149 00:08:55,920 --> 00:08:58,839 Speaker 1: and looked, and it's built to remember the tm And 150 00:08:58,880 --> 00:09:02,000 Speaker 1: Square massacre. So I said to myself, what massacre are 151 00:09:02,040 --> 00:09:04,839 Speaker 1: you talking about? Nobody died in Tmin Square in ninety 152 00:09:04,880 --> 00:09:07,720 Speaker 1: eighty nine. Of course people did, but I did not 153 00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:10,679 Speaker 1: know because that was what I've taught growing up under 154 00:09:10,760 --> 00:09:13,560 Speaker 1: Chinese propaganda. So it was really shocking to me. And 155 00:09:13,600 --> 00:09:16,000 Speaker 1: then I went to the library of University of Hong 156 00:09:16,080 --> 00:09:19,199 Speaker 1: Kong and I came across a bookshelf full of books 157 00:09:19,200 --> 00:09:22,240 Speaker 1: about the events back in ninety eighty nine. So it's 158 00:09:22,240 --> 00:09:24,760 Speaker 1: a shock to me in the sense that I did 159 00:09:24,800 --> 00:09:28,680 Speaker 1: not realize propaganda was so powerful. It changed people's mind 160 00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:32,600 Speaker 1: and manipulated information that people can absorb. So I spent 161 00:09:32,720 --> 00:09:35,360 Speaker 1: weeks just watching all the documentaries and reading all the 162 00:09:35,400 --> 00:09:39,600 Speaker 1: books about the particular historical event, and that really turned 163 00:09:39,640 --> 00:09:42,920 Speaker 1: my life around, because I said to myself back then, 164 00:09:42,960 --> 00:09:46,120 Speaker 1: I need to study propaganda, because that's what changed my 165 00:09:46,160 --> 00:09:48,079 Speaker 1: life up to the point I came to Hong Kong. 166 00:09:48,600 --> 00:09:52,400 Speaker 1: Information is really powerful. I'm curious about this, as you 167 00:09:52,440 --> 00:09:54,760 Speaker 1: point out, and it's a great problem we're now wrestling with. 168 00:09:54,920 --> 00:09:59,040 Speaker 1: Here you have people who are willing to basically eradicate 169 00:09:59,160 --> 00:10:03,200 Speaker 1: history in order for you to learn their version of history. 170 00:10:03,720 --> 00:10:06,360 Speaker 1: How big a shock was it to you to realize 171 00:10:06,360 --> 00:10:10,240 Speaker 1: how totally you'd been lied to. I was in tears, 172 00:10:10,679 --> 00:10:15,880 Speaker 1: excruciating pain watching those footages back then of the soldiers 173 00:10:15,920 --> 00:10:20,200 Speaker 1: shooting innocent students and residents in Beijing. It's saddening, not 174 00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:23,240 Speaker 1: only because it was a tragedy, but it was because 175 00:10:23,320 --> 00:10:25,920 Speaker 1: I thought before I went to Hong Kong that I 176 00:10:26,040 --> 00:10:29,160 Speaker 1: was one of those more open minded people in China. 177 00:10:29,240 --> 00:10:32,400 Speaker 1: I live in Guangdong, which is a province that's already 178 00:10:32,679 --> 00:10:36,719 Speaker 1: under less controlled by Beijing, and there were magazines and 179 00:10:36,840 --> 00:10:40,079 Speaker 1: newspapers that are more brave in terms of saying things 180 00:10:40,120 --> 00:10:42,840 Speaker 1: that Beijing didn't like. And I grew up reading all 181 00:10:42,840 --> 00:10:45,160 Speaker 1: those newspapers. So I thought I was already on the 182 00:10:45,200 --> 00:10:48,880 Speaker 1: frontier of the truth. And so the real pain was 183 00:10:48,920 --> 00:10:52,440 Speaker 1: ready to realize that I did not know anything about 184 00:10:52,480 --> 00:10:56,080 Speaker 1: the Piman Square massacre. Yeah, it's fascinating. Parallel. There's a 185 00:10:56,120 --> 00:11:00,120 Speaker 1: book called Fleeing Moscow, which is the highest ranking IT 186 00:11:00,240 --> 00:11:04,240 Speaker 1: official to defect, and he describes at the beginning of 187 00:11:04,240 --> 00:11:06,480 Speaker 1: the book that he had been sent to be the 188 00:11:06,559 --> 00:11:09,360 Speaker 1: number two person at the United Nations. And so he 189 00:11:09,400 --> 00:11:13,120 Speaker 1: gets off the airplane, gets in a car, drives downtown 190 00:11:13,160 --> 00:11:16,880 Speaker 1: to the then Soviet residence. This is early nineteen eighties, 191 00:11:17,679 --> 00:11:21,360 Speaker 1: and he said, as they're driving downtown, he notices that 192 00:11:21,360 --> 00:11:25,600 Speaker 1: they're all these little tiny grocery stores, and they all 193 00:11:25,679 --> 00:11:32,040 Speaker 1: have fruit and vegetables sitting outside without any guards. And 194 00:11:32,160 --> 00:11:35,000 Speaker 1: he said, it suddenly hit him that everything he'd been 195 00:11:35,040 --> 00:11:39,040 Speaker 1: told about poverty in America was a lie, and that 196 00:11:39,120 --> 00:11:42,640 Speaker 1: it was a totally different system, dramatically better for normal 197 00:11:42,679 --> 00:11:45,960 Speaker 1: people than the Soviet system. And he said by the 198 00:11:46,000 --> 00:11:48,200 Speaker 1: time he got to the residence, he'd already decided he 199 00:11:48,200 --> 00:11:50,200 Speaker 1: would affect. He just had to figure out how to 200 00:11:50,240 --> 00:11:52,559 Speaker 1: do it. And it's the similar thing. But I'm curious 201 00:11:52,600 --> 00:11:58,000 Speaker 1: because you mentioned the relative openness of Guandong, you know, 202 00:11:58,080 --> 00:12:02,600 Speaker 1: the other great center of financial activity in Shanghai. How 203 00:12:02,640 --> 00:12:07,000 Speaker 1: do you compare the two cultures, the South China culture 204 00:12:07,080 --> 00:12:10,839 Speaker 1: and the Shanghai culture. The South China culture, I would say, 205 00:12:11,480 --> 00:12:15,040 Speaker 1: is closer to what people would describe as the New Ridge, 206 00:12:15,520 --> 00:12:18,840 Speaker 1: and the Shanghai culture would be more of the Old Ridge, 207 00:12:19,320 --> 00:12:22,640 Speaker 1: because simply the time sequence of the event that the 208 00:12:22,800 --> 00:12:25,920 Speaker 1: guandom was a province that was first opened up. The 209 00:12:26,040 --> 00:12:29,640 Speaker 1: place I went for college, Shanto University. Shanto is actually 210 00:12:29,640 --> 00:12:32,560 Speaker 1: a city, one of the four cities when the first 211 00:12:32,679 --> 00:12:36,240 Speaker 1: experiment was done to allow more trade to happen, and 212 00:12:36,320 --> 00:12:40,240 Speaker 1: the university I went to, Shanto University was basically half 213 00:12:40,400 --> 00:12:43,480 Speaker 1: funded by the richest men in Hong Kong, mister Lee Kashing, 214 00:12:44,400 --> 00:12:47,800 Speaker 1: And so it was a time when Guangdong was first 215 00:12:47,880 --> 00:12:51,040 Speaker 1: getting more interaction with the outside world than Shanghai, so 216 00:12:51,280 --> 00:12:54,199 Speaker 1: it was more of the new rich mentality that they 217 00:12:54,240 --> 00:12:57,480 Speaker 1: had being more exposed to. Growing up in Guangdong. We 218 00:12:57,520 --> 00:13:00,840 Speaker 1: also had television channels from Hong Kong. Every now and 219 00:13:00,880 --> 00:13:03,920 Speaker 1: then you would see some interruptions and then the Chinese 220 00:13:03,960 --> 00:13:08,079 Speaker 1: government would stick some public interest advertisement because there's something 221 00:13:08,080 --> 00:13:10,160 Speaker 1: on the television in Hong Kong that the people in 222 00:13:10,200 --> 00:13:12,480 Speaker 1: Gandom are not supposed to see, and so you see 223 00:13:12,520 --> 00:13:15,640 Speaker 1: this kind of soft blackout, and growing up, I remember 224 00:13:15,720 --> 00:13:18,240 Speaker 1: that kind of blackouts are more and more frequent, not 225 00:13:18,320 --> 00:13:21,120 Speaker 1: because Hong Kong was more and more open, but because 226 00:13:21,400 --> 00:13:25,480 Speaker 1: what was considered intolerable to Beijing. It's more and morphical. 227 00:13:44,240 --> 00:13:46,280 Speaker 1: One of the things that you developed coming out of 228 00:13:46,280 --> 00:13:50,480 Speaker 1: all this is the Policy Change Index. Tell us about 229 00:13:50,520 --> 00:13:53,880 Speaker 1: that project. Yeah, so that was exactly coming out from 230 00:13:53,960 --> 00:13:57,280 Speaker 1: the shock that I had arriving in Hong Kong, when 231 00:13:57,280 --> 00:14:02,080 Speaker 1: I realized manipulation of information is powerful, and so what 232 00:14:02,280 --> 00:14:05,400 Speaker 1: dawned on me was that now I'm out of my mind. 233 00:14:05,840 --> 00:14:07,400 Speaker 1: That's what I thought when I was in Hong Kong. 234 00:14:07,400 --> 00:14:09,440 Speaker 1: I was out of my mind because I was out 235 00:14:09,440 --> 00:14:13,559 Speaker 1: of the mind that was previously manipulated by propaganda in China. 236 00:14:13,679 --> 00:14:17,079 Speaker 1: So now if you think about the Chinese propagandist as 237 00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:20,080 Speaker 1: a puppeteer, right, So back then when I arrive in 238 00:14:20,080 --> 00:14:23,160 Speaker 1: Hong Kong, was I realized I'm no longer a puppet. 239 00:14:23,240 --> 00:14:26,560 Speaker 1: I'm in the audience, not watching the puppet show. And 240 00:14:26,600 --> 00:14:28,840 Speaker 1: so what I should do is I should record and 241 00:14:28,880 --> 00:14:32,480 Speaker 1: collect all the information coming out from china propaganda machine, 242 00:14:32,800 --> 00:14:36,680 Speaker 1: and I should analyze the play how the puppeteer manipulated 243 00:14:36,760 --> 00:14:39,880 Speaker 1: population in terms of information, because that turned out to 244 00:14:39,920 --> 00:14:43,680 Speaker 1: be very informative of their intention. Now I didn't know 245 00:14:43,760 --> 00:14:46,360 Speaker 1: even then I was in Hong Kong. After I got 246 00:14:46,400 --> 00:14:49,720 Speaker 1: to America that I realized there was a standard practice 247 00:14:49,760 --> 00:14:52,480 Speaker 1: in the intelligence agency. It goes all the way back 248 00:14:52,520 --> 00:14:55,880 Speaker 1: to Second World War, where what turnout an agency that 249 00:14:55,960 --> 00:14:58,400 Speaker 1: turned out to be later part of the CIA was 250 00:14:58,480 --> 00:15:03,520 Speaker 1: analyzing Nazi propa agenda by listening to radios Nazi radios, 251 00:15:03,560 --> 00:15:06,400 Speaker 1: and what they were able to do was to predict 252 00:15:06,520 --> 00:15:09,720 Speaker 1: the time of deployment of German secret leave weapons. It 253 00:15:09,880 --> 00:15:12,480 Speaker 1: was not something Hitler was supposed to tell the people, 254 00:15:12,640 --> 00:15:14,440 Speaker 1: right tell the rest of the world, but it was 255 00:15:14,520 --> 00:15:16,760 Speaker 1: something that was picked up by the analysts at what 256 00:15:16,920 --> 00:15:19,600 Speaker 1: later became part of CIA. The reason that work was 257 00:15:19,640 --> 00:15:23,160 Speaker 1: actually that even though there's something that's supposed to be secret, 258 00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:28,840 Speaker 1: you probably sometimes unwillingly or unconsciously let out in your 259 00:15:28,840 --> 00:15:33,240 Speaker 1: propaganda apparatus, they do I understand it. You somehow are 260 00:15:33,280 --> 00:15:38,000 Speaker 1: monitoring and screening data flow and then capturing it for 261 00:15:38,280 --> 00:15:41,080 Speaker 1: your index. And a lot of this is being done 262 00:15:41,080 --> 00:15:44,520 Speaker 1: with machine learning, because otherwise you would drown. You'd never 263 00:15:44,560 --> 00:15:47,080 Speaker 1: have enough people to do this. So how does that work? 264 00:15:47,280 --> 00:15:51,120 Speaker 1: It's almost like magic. Yeah, So if you imagine you 265 00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:54,960 Speaker 1: were actually reading Chinese propagenda newspaper, like think about the 266 00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:58,640 Speaker 1: People's Daily, the China's version of Pravda, Like if you 267 00:15:58,760 --> 00:16:01,480 Speaker 1: were to pick out the time when you think the 268 00:16:01,560 --> 00:16:05,720 Speaker 1: mindset of the Chinese Communist Party has changed, how would 269 00:16:05,720 --> 00:16:08,240 Speaker 1: you do that. Typically you will pick up a newspaper 270 00:16:08,240 --> 00:16:10,640 Speaker 1: and look what's above or below the fold, or maybe 271 00:16:10,640 --> 00:16:12,720 Speaker 1: what's on the front page which is not on the 272 00:16:12,720 --> 00:16:16,200 Speaker 1: front page, and if you detect the tide turning, you 273 00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:18,960 Speaker 1: would see the Communist Party saying something differently on the 274 00:16:19,000 --> 00:16:22,520 Speaker 1: front page than what it used to say. Right. Imagine 275 00:16:22,520 --> 00:16:25,120 Speaker 1: you were at the moment in late nineteen seventy, after 276 00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:29,240 Speaker 1: Mao died, but before the economic reform started, if you 277 00:16:29,280 --> 00:16:32,400 Speaker 1: looked at the newspaper, there was a very obvious turn 278 00:16:32,520 --> 00:16:36,560 Speaker 1: of tide because before that, when ma was still alive, 279 00:16:36,880 --> 00:16:40,560 Speaker 1: what's on the front page typically was about class struggle. 280 00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:43,920 Speaker 1: It's crucial, we need to put the capitalists in jail 281 00:16:44,120 --> 00:16:47,800 Speaker 1: because they were a counter revolutionary. After that, what you 282 00:16:47,800 --> 00:16:51,080 Speaker 1: would see on the front page was that market it's 283 00:16:51,120 --> 00:16:54,960 Speaker 1: not the evil because market could give us wealth, and 284 00:16:55,280 --> 00:16:58,200 Speaker 1: that's something in the capitalist elements that we could learn 285 00:16:58,280 --> 00:17:01,960 Speaker 1: from the Chinese. Gut actually said that to the Chinese 286 00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:06,359 Speaker 1: people a year or two before they actually implemented the 287 00:17:06,440 --> 00:17:09,639 Speaker 1: economic reforms. So the way I think about it is 288 00:17:09,680 --> 00:17:13,520 Speaker 1: that sometimes for certain policies, you would need a population 289 00:17:13,600 --> 00:17:16,840 Speaker 1: to coordinate with the government. Despite the fact that China 290 00:17:16,920 --> 00:17:20,560 Speaker 1: does not have democracy, nevertheless you still need cooperation, a 291 00:17:20,720 --> 00:17:24,800 Speaker 1: coordination with the economy, and so sometimes it would take 292 00:17:24,840 --> 00:17:28,200 Speaker 1: convincing of the public before you could roll out certain policies, 293 00:17:28,800 --> 00:17:32,400 Speaker 1: especially unpopular ones. You have to convince the people. So 294 00:17:32,560 --> 00:17:35,280 Speaker 1: before the crackdown in the TM and Square, what the 295 00:17:35,400 --> 00:17:38,680 Speaker 1: government said was that at the beginning, the students were 296 00:17:38,680 --> 00:17:41,919 Speaker 1: good people. They love their country. Hence they make suggestions about, 297 00:17:42,280 --> 00:17:45,280 Speaker 1: you know, anti corruption or later on they became morons 298 00:17:45,359 --> 00:17:48,080 Speaker 1: right because they tried to destroy the future of the country, 299 00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:51,240 Speaker 1: and the government changed all their talking points the way 300 00:17:51,240 --> 00:17:59,080 Speaker 1: before they started shooting students. Essentially has a remarkable understanding 301 00:17:59,119 --> 00:18:03,520 Speaker 1: of the important propaganda, much more than anybody since Mao, 302 00:18:04,560 --> 00:18:11,119 Speaker 1: and that they have used artificial intelligence and technology to 303 00:18:11,320 --> 00:18:16,040 Speaker 1: have a level of information control that we've never seen it. 304 00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:19,760 Speaker 1: It's sort of George Orwell in nineteen eighty four, except 305 00:18:19,760 --> 00:18:24,080 Speaker 1: it's real, vastly more powerful than the Soviets everywhere. What 306 00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:26,280 Speaker 1: sure reaction. In the one hand, you're in a country 307 00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:29,440 Speaker 1: that is having a certain amount of turmoil, but we're 308 00:18:29,480 --> 00:18:32,320 Speaker 1: still relatively open and we're still fighting each other in 309 00:18:32,359 --> 00:18:35,760 Speaker 1: a relatively enthusiastic way. On the other hand, you've come 310 00:18:35,800 --> 00:18:38,760 Speaker 1: from a country which I think over the last fifteen 311 00:18:38,840 --> 00:18:42,600 Speaker 1: years has actually grown tighter in its controls. How do 312 00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:48,119 Speaker 1: you interpret what you see happening inside China? Mister speaker, 313 00:18:48,160 --> 00:18:52,360 Speaker 1: You are exactly right. The change in the policy direction 314 00:18:52,400 --> 00:18:55,600 Speaker 1: in China did not, in my view, start from mister 315 00:18:55,880 --> 00:18:59,280 Speaker 1: Jim Pain. It started before him, the last president President 316 00:18:59,280 --> 00:19:02,399 Speaker 1: of Jujinhao, Because That's what I exactly picked up with 317 00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:06,280 Speaker 1: the policy change Index around the year two thousand and three. 318 00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:10,360 Speaker 1: There was one year before former President who rolled out 319 00:19:10,440 --> 00:19:14,520 Speaker 1: his Harmonious Society campaign. What we saw in two thousand 320 00:19:14,560 --> 00:19:17,560 Speaker 1: and three, before the actual policy happened, was that the 321 00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:20,960 Speaker 1: government started to change how they talk about market economy 322 00:19:21,680 --> 00:19:25,360 Speaker 1: before that. For example, if you think about state on enterprises, 323 00:19:25,880 --> 00:19:29,480 Speaker 1: before that, the general attitude before two thousand and three 324 00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:32,760 Speaker 1: was that we are at some point privatize all of 325 00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:37,320 Speaker 1: them because state on companies are not efficient. Market is better. 326 00:19:37,760 --> 00:19:39,880 Speaker 1: But after two thousand and three he started to say 327 00:19:39,960 --> 00:19:43,000 Speaker 1: something totally differently, we need national champions. They were great, 328 00:19:43,200 --> 00:19:46,199 Speaker 1: they could work pretty well, and the government started to 329 00:19:46,240 --> 00:19:49,640 Speaker 1: support national champions or stated on enterprises more and more 330 00:19:49,680 --> 00:19:53,280 Speaker 1: after two thousand and three. So all these policies that 331 00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:56,800 Speaker 1: now we see as generally under tighter and tighter government control, 332 00:19:57,240 --> 00:19:59,520 Speaker 1: it was something that were started in the middle of 333 00:19:59,560 --> 00:20:02,760 Speaker 1: two thous thousands and way before President She came in. 334 00:20:03,280 --> 00:20:05,840 Speaker 1: So as they went through this tightening up, in this 335 00:20:05,960 --> 00:20:11,840 Speaker 1: transition away from market oriented back towards socialist and government 336 00:20:12,040 --> 00:20:16,359 Speaker 1: dominated systems, I also noticed, and it's kind of fascinating 337 00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:19,240 Speaker 1: to watch they had a conscious strategy of going after 338 00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:21,720 Speaker 1: the big rich. I mean, if you were one of 339 00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:24,280 Speaker 1: those people who was an entrepreneur, had built one of 340 00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:27,000 Speaker 1: the biggest companies in China, you were actually sort of 341 00:20:27,040 --> 00:20:30,520 Speaker 1: in the crosshairs of the Chinese government coming after you. 342 00:20:31,080 --> 00:20:35,639 Speaker 1: Didn't that have a demoralizing effect? It certainly does, and 343 00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:38,480 Speaker 1: I think that's a trade off that Beijing is apparently 344 00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:43,359 Speaker 1: willing to make because one of the driving factors back 345 00:20:43,359 --> 00:20:47,040 Speaker 1: in two thousand and three, before the Chinese government really 346 00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:50,840 Speaker 1: made a turn from market economy to more socialism was 347 00:20:50,880 --> 00:20:54,440 Speaker 1: all the social problems that they saw in early two thousands. 348 00:20:54,680 --> 00:20:58,960 Speaker 1: There were inflation, government corruption, and there's a general sentiment 349 00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:02,480 Speaker 1: that the society was not fair. There was regional disparity. 350 00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:06,240 Speaker 1: There's income inequality between urban and more rural areas, or 351 00:21:06,280 --> 00:21:08,680 Speaker 1: even within cities, or if you go to any big city, 352 00:21:09,160 --> 00:21:12,480 Speaker 1: Shanghai and Beijing, you see people you could see a 353 00:21:12,800 --> 00:21:15,920 Speaker 1: drastic difference in terms of the income level between those 354 00:21:15,960 --> 00:21:18,520 Speaker 1: who have the privilege and those who are just working 355 00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:22,159 Speaker 1: in the factories. And that has heard the legitimacy of 356 00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:26,400 Speaker 1: the Communist Party. That's something President which House saw clearly 357 00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:29,520 Speaker 1: when he first took office. In two thousand and three. 358 00:21:29,800 --> 00:21:32,040 Speaker 1: So it was a trade of that they were willing 359 00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:34,240 Speaker 1: to make in the sense that they were willing to 360 00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:38,600 Speaker 1: sacrifice a little bit of market economies efficiency in exchange 361 00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:41,480 Speaker 1: for solving some of these social problems that would hurt 362 00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:44,200 Speaker 1: them in terms of the popularity of the Communist Party 363 00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:47,560 Speaker 1: in the poor population. So in a sense, what you 364 00:21:47,680 --> 00:21:52,840 Speaker 1: have is a Beijing alliance with the poor to punish 365 00:21:52,840 --> 00:21:55,520 Speaker 1: the rich, so that the poor kind of think of 366 00:21:55,520 --> 00:22:00,199 Speaker 1: it as justice, right, And that's precisely why press than 367 00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:05,199 Speaker 1: shigm can now still remained very popular, especially among the 368 00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:09,800 Speaker 1: poor class. His popularity was first aided by when he 369 00:22:09,840 --> 00:22:12,560 Speaker 1: first took off as the anti corruption campaign, but more 370 00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:15,360 Speaker 1: and more so pore people they realized that, yeah, of course, 371 00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:17,280 Speaker 1: if you rob the ridge, right, if we could get 372 00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:19,840 Speaker 1: a lot of benefits, and some people in child that 373 00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:23,120 Speaker 1: they like him for that. So in that sense, has 374 00:22:23,119 --> 00:22:26,480 Speaker 1: there been an increased stream of revenue to the poor, 375 00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:30,600 Speaker 1: There has been. For example, there has been significant increase 376 00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:34,879 Speaker 1: in the retirement to the retirees. The government payment to 377 00:22:35,080 --> 00:22:38,800 Speaker 1: them in terms of the monthly paychecks has seen significant increase. 378 00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:42,400 Speaker 1: And the older generation they're more satisfied with how things 379 00:22:42,440 --> 00:23:04,280 Speaker 1: are now. One of the things that's become more obvious 380 00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:06,840 Speaker 1: that I think went on but we just didn't pay 381 00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:10,359 Speaker 1: attention to it is this whole concept of disappearing. I 382 00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:12,520 Speaker 1: did a podcast a while back with somebody who had 383 00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:15,679 Speaker 1: been disappeared and then ultimately got to the US, and 384 00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:19,479 Speaker 1: it's eerie the way they do it. Could you comment 385 00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:24,400 Speaker 1: on the whole system of disappearing people, mississ Biggot, Were 386 00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:28,520 Speaker 1: you referring to dissidents who had disappeared from the public views. 387 00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:31,720 Speaker 1: In the case of I think the most famous female 388 00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:34,880 Speaker 1: movie star in China, she was gone for like six 389 00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:38,119 Speaker 1: months until she confessed that she cheated on her attacks. 390 00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:41,280 Speaker 1: The disappearing always ends with the person who has been 391 00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:43,760 Speaker 1: disappeared showing up and saying, you know, it was all 392 00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:46,439 Speaker 1: my fault. I'm really sorry I made the police do 393 00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:48,720 Speaker 1: this to me, and if only I had done the 394 00:23:48,800 --> 00:23:51,679 Speaker 1: right thing, it would never have happened, which just happened 395 00:23:51,680 --> 00:23:54,520 Speaker 1: again with the tennis star on the last few weeks. 396 00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:57,600 Speaker 1: But this whole notion that they don't as I understand it, 397 00:23:57,640 --> 00:24:00,000 Speaker 1: correct me if I'm wrong. They don't tell your parents, 398 00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:02,399 Speaker 1: for your wife or your child. They don't tell your 399 00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:05,679 Speaker 1: lawyer you're on the way to work and you disappear, 400 00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:10,119 Speaker 1: and then eventually if you agree, then you reappear. I mean, 401 00:24:10,160 --> 00:24:12,320 Speaker 1: it's the opposite of American model. We'd have so many 402 00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:16,159 Speaker 1: lawsuits to be unbelievable. Well, in their system, ain't nobody 403 00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:18,239 Speaker 1: going to sue, because if you're going to sue, you'll 404 00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:23,719 Speaker 1: never reappear. Well, that's the norm rather than exceptions. In China, 405 00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:26,639 Speaker 1: it has been that way since the very beginning. My 406 00:24:26,800 --> 00:24:30,400 Speaker 1: favorite story was actually the last emperor of the Chain dynasty. 407 00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:34,399 Speaker 1: And so after the Communist probably won the war, initially 408 00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:37,879 Speaker 1: the last emperor was held kept it by the Soviet Union. 409 00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:40,480 Speaker 1: So after the war, Soviet Union and China had this 410 00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:43,240 Speaker 1: deals and so they're gonna send this guy back to Mao. 411 00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:45,840 Speaker 1: And so Mao saw the value of that guy, right 412 00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:49,520 Speaker 1: because he represented what's the worst element in history up 413 00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:51,680 Speaker 1: to his point. And so what they did was they 414 00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:53,919 Speaker 1: put him in the concentration camp, basically like one of 415 00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:56,600 Speaker 1: those forced labor camps, now getting worse and worse in 416 00:24:56,640 --> 00:24:59,320 Speaker 1: the Xinjiang area, but it was all over in China 417 00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:01,920 Speaker 1: since the very beginning. So they put him in and 418 00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:04,960 Speaker 1: he was forced to work in jail for many years 419 00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:08,280 Speaker 1: before he actually confessed to his crimes, and what the 420 00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:10,840 Speaker 1: Communist Party did was to try to get him to confess, 421 00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:12,639 Speaker 1: and it didn't work at the beginning, but you know, 422 00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:14,680 Speaker 1: after you work in the force they became for several years, 423 00:25:14,720 --> 00:25:17,000 Speaker 1: maybe you would and he did, and so he wrote 424 00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:18,840 Speaker 1: what appeared to be a heart failed letter saying that 425 00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:21,240 Speaker 1: I was wrong in all this. Everything in the past 426 00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:24,400 Speaker 1: was wrong, feudalism was wrong, and the Communist Party is great. 427 00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:27,680 Speaker 1: So this is how they did all this all the time, 428 00:25:27,760 --> 00:25:30,560 Speaker 1: and the purpose of that was to use these people, 429 00:25:30,640 --> 00:25:33,679 Speaker 1: famous people, are well known people as an example. So 430 00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:36,840 Speaker 1: again going back to the power of propaganda, these kind 431 00:25:36,880 --> 00:25:40,080 Speaker 1: of things were what set the precedence for other people 432 00:25:40,119 --> 00:25:42,960 Speaker 1: to say, if you don't behave you know, you could 433 00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:45,520 Speaker 1: be disappeared for a while, and then eventually you still 434 00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:48,640 Speaker 1: have to admit your mistake. Was that the Emperor pou 435 00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:52,720 Speaker 1: Yee exactly? Yeah, yeah, because I think Kristen I visited 436 00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:58,120 Speaker 1: his residence in Manchuria once he apologized and he confessed 437 00:25:58,119 --> 00:26:01,080 Speaker 1: he was wrong, and he paid obeyed since to Mao. 438 00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:03,120 Speaker 1: You know, they set him up in a nice little place. 439 00:26:03,119 --> 00:26:06,040 Speaker 1: I mean, it wasn't anything like the Imperial City, but 440 00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:08,640 Speaker 1: it was still not bad. And you have the sense 441 00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:11,720 Speaker 1: of this little guy who just, you know, it was 442 00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:14,760 Speaker 1: kind of totally confused by life. I mean, he'd been 443 00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:17,479 Speaker 1: raised to be an emperor. The empire was gone. I 444 00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:20,639 Speaker 1: think he was initially manipulated by the Japanese and then 445 00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:22,840 Speaker 1: ended up being manipulated by the Soviets, and then was 446 00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:26,199 Speaker 1: manipulated by the Chinese Communist and then finally was allowed 447 00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:29,880 Speaker 1: to retire and eventually passed away. But it's a fascinating 448 00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:32,240 Speaker 1: place that I can't remember which town it's in, but 449 00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:35,280 Speaker 1: it's in Manchuria. And of course mal in that sense 450 00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:37,840 Speaker 1: was a propagandist. One of the things I think is 451 00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:42,680 Speaker 1: really understudied is the degree to which Chinese Communism is 452 00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:48,000 Speaker 1: essentially pure Leninism, and Lennon was a genius and understanding 453 00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:51,000 Speaker 1: the power of molding people's minds. One of the things 454 00:26:51,040 --> 00:26:54,200 Speaker 1: when we did research for our book on Trump versus China, 455 00:26:54,280 --> 00:26:56,720 Speaker 1: I had no idea that Dungsha Pang had spent a 456 00:26:56,800 --> 00:27:00,200 Speaker 1: year at Lenon University in the twenties. He got all 457 00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:03,120 Speaker 1: of this and also was so loyal that even living 458 00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:06,800 Speaker 1: through the Cultural Revolution and having had his grandson who 459 00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:09,480 Speaker 1: I think had both legs broken at one point being 460 00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:12,119 Speaker 1: pushed from a third or four story building. He was 461 00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:15,800 Speaker 1: a true believer, which I had totally misunderstood because I 462 00:27:15,840 --> 00:27:19,720 Speaker 1: thought the Southern tour and the black cat white cat routine, 463 00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:22,679 Speaker 1: I thought he was the beginning of opening up and 464 00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:24,800 Speaker 1: then I realized one day were going through all the stuff. 465 00:27:24,800 --> 00:27:28,600 Speaker 1: Now he wanted to open up the economy precisely to 466 00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:33,000 Speaker 1: keep total control on the political side. Right. So in hindsight, 467 00:27:33,080 --> 00:27:35,280 Speaker 1: of course, now we know a little bit more. But 468 00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:38,040 Speaker 1: during the Southern tour, mister speaker, I wasn't even born, 469 00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:40,960 Speaker 1: so I did not have the opportunity like you did 470 00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:43,880 Speaker 1: to watching and so had I been able to do that, 471 00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:47,520 Speaker 1: I would probably have made the same mistake. But in hindsight, though, 472 00:27:47,520 --> 00:27:49,800 Speaker 1: if you look back to his tours to other countries, 473 00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:53,080 Speaker 1: we should recognize that dung shopping only has learned for 474 00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:56,880 Speaker 1: the Soviet Union the Grand Master. He was also one 475 00:27:56,920 --> 00:27:59,399 Speaker 1: of the more open minded Chinese leaders in terms of 476 00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:02,960 Speaker 1: observe what's happening in the West. He has traveled to 477 00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:06,359 Speaker 1: places like Singapore, so Singapore was frequently tell it as 478 00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:10,120 Speaker 1: an example for China's how to run authoritarian regime and 479 00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:13,119 Speaker 1: what Singapore is known for. It's all sorts of a 480 00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:16,959 Speaker 1: softer or more subtle control of the population, which is 481 00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:21,560 Speaker 1: exactly what China has been doing since then. Because you mentioned, 482 00:28:21,560 --> 00:28:24,720 Speaker 1: mister speaker, of all the Chinese influence now in our society, 483 00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:29,160 Speaker 1: that's precisely how propaganda worked in China. What Beijing has 484 00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:32,440 Speaker 1: learned was that you need to gradually change people's mind 485 00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:35,520 Speaker 1: towards a view that's more in favor of you or 486 00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:38,400 Speaker 1: the way how you would rule the country. And that's 487 00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:41,760 Speaker 1: why if you look at a propaganda campaign done by 488 00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:44,760 Speaker 1: the Chinese versus what's done by the Russians, there's a 489 00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:49,680 Speaker 1: very distinctive difference. The Russians are more focused on misinformation 490 00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:53,840 Speaker 1: or disinformation, making something that's fake right, as recently reviewed 491 00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:56,400 Speaker 1: in the New York Times in relation to the Russian 492 00:28:56,400 --> 00:29:01,000 Speaker 1: aggression on Ukraine. But what the Chinese focus more was 493 00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:05,440 Speaker 1: actually not so much as creating fake information to food 494 00:29:05,440 --> 00:29:08,040 Speaker 1: the people, but more on trying to paint China in 495 00:29:08,040 --> 00:29:12,200 Speaker 1: a more positive light to foreignness, because they realized that's 496 00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:15,640 Speaker 1: how you could gradually change people's mind and then gradually 497 00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:19,880 Speaker 1: become more aggressive and be successful being that way, which 498 00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:22,760 Speaker 1: is something they apply also to Americans who want to 499 00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:25,640 Speaker 1: do business in China. So tell me when you saw 500 00:29:25,800 --> 00:29:29,800 Speaker 1: Putin come to Beijing, what was your reaction. What do 501 00:29:29,840 --> 00:29:33,600 Speaker 1: you think the meaning was of their long statement and 502 00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:36,800 Speaker 1: the sort of mutual commitment. Yeah, there's a lot to 503 00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:41,360 Speaker 1: unpack in that statement because it's kind of vague and broad, 504 00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:44,680 Speaker 1: because they also mentioned that the cooperation between China and 505 00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:48,040 Speaker 1: Russia would not have any limits, right, so the cooperation 506 00:29:48,080 --> 00:29:50,400 Speaker 1: could be any kind. It doesn't say that it would 507 00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:52,960 Speaker 1: be military. It doesn't say that China would help the 508 00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:57,440 Speaker 1: Russians if Russia invaded Ukraine. But it also could be 509 00:29:57,480 --> 00:30:01,000 Speaker 1: broad in sense of other type of support because we 510 00:30:01,080 --> 00:30:05,280 Speaker 1: have known that over the years since twenty fourteen, Russia 511 00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:08,360 Speaker 1: has been working hard to sort of sanctions prove the 512 00:30:08,400 --> 00:30:12,040 Speaker 1: economy because that's the lesson they learned from twenty fourteen. 513 00:30:12,320 --> 00:30:16,240 Speaker 1: So since then, for example, they have been boarding foreign reserves, 514 00:30:16,320 --> 00:30:19,480 Speaker 1: they have been trying to be spending less in terms 515 00:30:19,600 --> 00:30:23,479 Speaker 1: of the government's resources, just so that even under sanction 516 00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:26,480 Speaker 1: they could still operate, and they started to export more 517 00:30:26,600 --> 00:30:30,240 Speaker 1: energy to China, and China now is the major export 518 00:30:30,240 --> 00:30:33,960 Speaker 1: destination of Russian energy, and so all these would create 519 00:30:34,040 --> 00:30:38,480 Speaker 1: some sort of accushion when the West does sanction Russia. 520 00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:42,920 Speaker 1: Russia invade Ukraine, and China could obviously provide a lot 521 00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:45,480 Speaker 1: of support for that. China, for example, could import even 522 00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:49,480 Speaker 1: more energy from Russia. So I suspect that part of 523 00:30:49,520 --> 00:30:53,120 Speaker 1: the negotiation of what they talked about was this kind 524 00:30:53,200 --> 00:30:57,320 Speaker 1: of hypothetical scenarios about how much China would be willing 525 00:30:57,320 --> 00:31:02,000 Speaker 1: to support Russia if it does invade Ukraine. But I 526 00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:05,280 Speaker 1: think overall the general gestures to be expected in the 527 00:31:05,360 --> 00:31:08,640 Speaker 1: sense that because the United States have now emphasized more 528 00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:11,840 Speaker 1: and more working with allies, right, so the only consequence 529 00:31:11,880 --> 00:31:15,040 Speaker 1: we should expect is that our competitors and adversaries they 530 00:31:15,040 --> 00:31:18,040 Speaker 1: would come together as well. I highly find this surprising. 531 00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:20,880 Speaker 1: But of course the uncertainty is exactly how far China 532 00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:24,120 Speaker 1: would go in terms of supporting Putin, and that's not 533 00:31:24,280 --> 00:31:27,320 Speaker 1: one hundred percent clear just yet, I think. So let 534 00:31:27,320 --> 00:31:29,680 Speaker 1: me ask one last thing, which is the topic I've 535 00:31:29,680 --> 00:31:33,160 Speaker 1: been very involved in. I noticed that on January twenty first, 536 00:31:33,320 --> 00:31:37,200 Speaker 1: you tweeted, remember Huahwei. The issue has been fading in 537 00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:39,800 Speaker 1: the public eye since the US pressure campaign against the 538 00:31:39,800 --> 00:31:42,840 Speaker 1: company started, But we have every reason to continue to 539 00:31:42,880 --> 00:31:45,880 Speaker 1: talk about it because the subject still matters to national security. 540 00:31:46,320 --> 00:31:50,480 Speaker 1: What are your concerns about Huahwei. My concern about Huawei 541 00:31:50,680 --> 00:31:55,880 Speaker 1: is a concern about overall companies that are now directly 542 00:31:56,000 --> 00:32:00,240 Speaker 1: or indirectly under control by Beijing, which can amatter a 543 00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:04,960 Speaker 1: lot of information about foreigners. And that's from an intelligence perspective. 544 00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:07,560 Speaker 1: The research I do, the one you mentioned, the Policy 545 00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:10,760 Speaker 1: Change Index, is one type of research that's called open 546 00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:14,280 Speaker 1: source intelligence. The idea being that a lot of times 547 00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:18,280 Speaker 1: to create or generate intelligence, we do not need to 548 00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:22,280 Speaker 1: rely on secrets like the intelligence community has for decades 549 00:32:22,320 --> 00:32:25,959 Speaker 1: focused on, you know, for example, by cultivating informance overseas 550 00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:28,520 Speaker 1: to spy on their own country, on behalf of the 551 00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:32,880 Speaker 1: United States. That's a secrecy based model. But what's now 552 00:32:32,960 --> 00:32:35,160 Speaker 1: more and more effective was that even if you just 553 00:32:35,280 --> 00:32:39,440 Speaker 1: collect publicly available information, including for example, Chinese propaganda, you 554 00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:43,400 Speaker 1: could generate a lot of valuable intelligence. And that's precisely 555 00:32:43,440 --> 00:32:45,920 Speaker 1: what China has been doing because there are a lot 556 00:32:45,920 --> 00:32:49,840 Speaker 1: of Chinese companies working for biging in terms of collecting 557 00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:53,120 Speaker 1: information overseas. They go after people off their interests and 558 00:32:53,120 --> 00:32:56,000 Speaker 1: collect the social media data, personal information. Where they have 559 00:32:56,120 --> 00:32:59,440 Speaker 1: been what they have done, and all these could potentially 560 00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:04,080 Speaker 1: be very valuable intelligence and that's what companies like Huawei 561 00:33:04,160 --> 00:33:08,240 Speaker 1: are capable are and have shown this evidence that suggests 562 00:33:08,440 --> 00:33:12,560 Speaker 1: Hawei might be building on some government contracts to provide 563 00:33:12,560 --> 00:33:15,240 Speaker 1: this kind of intelligence service, and we have seen other 564 00:33:15,280 --> 00:33:19,160 Speaker 1: companies that have actually done so. And so the problem 565 00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:22,480 Speaker 1: about Hwei in my view is not exactly so much 566 00:33:22,520 --> 00:33:25,720 Speaker 1: as the five G equipment per se, but it's what 567 00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:29,600 Speaker 1: the capabilities that we represent that will allow Beijing to 568 00:33:29,640 --> 00:33:32,520 Speaker 1: do and that's what really concerns me for the long run. 569 00:33:33,400 --> 00:33:37,880 Speaker 1: So your Policy Change Index project is that available on site? 570 00:33:37,880 --> 00:33:40,360 Speaker 1: Can people actually go look at it? Yeah, the best 571 00:33:40,360 --> 00:33:42,600 Speaker 1: place to check out the details will be to go 572 00:33:42,680 --> 00:33:46,360 Speaker 1: to policy change index dot org. So in the spirit 573 00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:50,400 Speaker 1: of open source intelligence, we made everything completely transparent and open. 574 00:33:50,840 --> 00:33:54,040 Speaker 1: Anyone can download our source code. If you collect any 575 00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:56,680 Speaker 1: other newspapers in China or the one that we collected, 576 00:33:57,000 --> 00:33:59,200 Speaker 1: you can implement the same algorithm and pretty much get 577 00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:02,120 Speaker 1: the same result. We'll link to that on our show page, 578 00:34:02,160 --> 00:34:04,760 Speaker 1: so people who want to keep track with everything you're 579 00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:07,120 Speaker 1: doing can go there. And I really want to thank you. 580 00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:09,719 Speaker 1: This has been fascinating. You're doing very important or very 581 00:34:09,719 --> 00:34:12,680 Speaker 1: original work. And I think that it's great that you 582 00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:15,600 Speaker 1: are so committed to help educate the rest of us, 583 00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:17,920 Speaker 1: and I thank you when I wish you well. Thank 584 00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:25,520 Speaker 1: you very much, mister speaker, it's my pleasure. Thank you 585 00:34:25,600 --> 00:34:29,160 Speaker 1: to my guest doctor wafungg Jong. You can read more 586 00:34:29,239 --> 00:34:32,600 Speaker 1: about Russia and China's show of solidarity on our show 587 00:34:32,640 --> 00:34:36,520 Speaker 1: page at newtsworld dot com. NEWTS World is produced by 588 00:34:36,560 --> 00:34:41,560 Speaker 1: Gingwish three sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive producer is Garnsey Sloan, 589 00:34:42,000 --> 00:34:46,160 Speaker 1: our producer is Rebecca Howe, and our researcher is Rachel Peterson. 590 00:34:46,800 --> 00:34:49,640 Speaker 1: The artwork for the show was created by Steve Penley. 591 00:34:50,239 --> 00:34:53,560 Speaker 1: Special thanks to the team at Gingwich three sixty. If 592 00:34:53,560 --> 00:34:56,280 Speaker 1: you've been enjoying Newtsworld, I hope you'll go to Apple 593 00:34:56,360 --> 00:34:59,759 Speaker 1: Podcast and both rate us with five stars and give 594 00:34:59,840 --> 00:35:02,200 Speaker 1: us a review so others can learn what it's all about. 595 00:35:02,840 --> 00:35:05,120 Speaker 1: Right now, listeners of Newtsworld can sign up for my 596 00:35:05,239 --> 00:35:09,160 Speaker 1: three free weekly columns at Gingwich three sixty dot com 597 00:35:09,160 --> 00:35:12,880 Speaker 1: slash newsletter. I'm newt Gingwich. This is Newtsworld.