WEBVTT - The 2024 All-Bust Team (EP. 767) 0:00:05.640 --> 0:00:08.320 Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy 0:00:08.360 --> 0:00:12.200 Baseball Podcast. Is Me Joe Pi Zapia, and today we're 0:00:12.200 --> 0:00:14.720 gonna look on the other side of things. We're gonna 0:00:14.720 --> 0:00:17.319 take a look at potential bust players. And it's not 0:00:17.440 --> 0:00:19.919 that we hate the players. Sometimes we just hate the 0:00:19.960 --> 0:00:22.960 adp although sometimes we might hate the players. 0:00:23.000 --> 0:00:24.160 We'll see how the show goes. 0:00:24.400 --> 0:00:26.439 Joining me is always my good pal of the Welsh 0:00:26.560 --> 0:00:27.920 and of course it's all of you out there. If 0:00:27.960 --> 0:00:31.640 you haven't already subscribed to the Fantasy Pros MLB page. 0:00:31.840 --> 0:00:34.479 We're the fastest growing YouTube channel in the history of 0:00:34.520 --> 0:00:36.080 the universe when it comes to baseball. 0:00:36.159 --> 0:00:38.559 That's right. I don't have the data to back it up. 0:00:38.560 --> 0:00:39.839 I just feel it in my bones. 0:00:40.080 --> 0:00:41.760 But I want to thank everybody out there who's been 0:00:41.800 --> 0:00:44.720 listening and watching to all the shows. And of course 0:00:44.760 --> 0:00:46.839 we've been giving away free things for those people who 0:00:46.880 --> 0:00:50.440 are subscribers of the channel. So speaking of givaway free stuff, Welsh, 0:00:50.440 --> 0:00:52.720 you're ready to give away a Jazz Chisham jersey to somebody? 0:00:52.920 --> 0:00:55.160 I am very ready. I love it. Do we have 0:00:55.200 --> 0:00:55.560 a name? 0:00:56.160 --> 0:00:56.600 We do? 0:00:57.160 --> 0:00:59.960 And the winner of the autograph Jazz Chishom Miami, Marl 0:01:00.240 --> 0:01:06.200 Jersey courtesy of Bettingpros dot Com. Is TJ Pascal. TJ Pascal, 0:01:06.319 --> 0:01:08.520 you're the big winner. Hit us up over a customer 0:01:08.560 --> 0:01:11.679 support at mailbag at Fantasypros dot com. That's mail bag 0:01:11.680 --> 0:01:14.360 at Fantasypros dot com. Shoot us your mailing address, proof 0:01:14.400 --> 0:01:17.680 of your subscription to Fantasy Pros MLB YouTube channel, and 0:01:17.720 --> 0:01:19.240 we'll get that shipped out to you right away. 0:01:19.280 --> 0:01:22.480 Again the winner, TJ. Pascal, Congrats buddy. 0:01:22.280 --> 0:01:24.960 And tell your dad I love him. Tell your dad's Pedro, 0:01:25.040 --> 0:01:25.479 I love him. 0:01:25.560 --> 0:01:28.440 That's right. Pedro, huge fan, hilarious. By the way, he 0:01:28.480 --> 0:01:32.880 was great on SNL last year. Just tremendous performance. If 0:01:32.920 --> 0:01:35.959 you missed it, go back and rewatch it at a 0:01:36.000 --> 0:01:38.319 national treasure. But you know what else is a treasure. 0:01:38.800 --> 0:01:40.640 This new prize we're given away for those people who 0:01:40.600 --> 0:01:43.280 are saying I want to be like TJ. Just subscribe 0:01:43.280 --> 0:01:45.319 to the channel. Drop your comments below. Ring the belt 0:01:45.319 --> 0:01:48.360 to Lick gos Ding because we're giving away trophy Smack's 0:01:48.440 --> 0:01:50.920 Ultimate Fantasy Baseball Championship Belt. 0:01:51.320 --> 0:01:51.840 That's right. 0:01:51.880 --> 0:01:54.320 You know me a big wrestling guy, so I'm all 0:01:54.360 --> 0:01:57.440 about the belt. So again to qualify, subscribe to Fancy 0:01:57.440 --> 0:01:59.520 Pros MLB, drop your comments below. 0:01:59.600 --> 0:01:59.960 That's it. 0:02:00.000 --> 0:02:01.880 That's all you gotta do, and don't forget to ring 0:02:01.920 --> 0:02:04.640 that bell and that trophy smack. Ultimate symbol of fantasy 0:02:04.640 --> 0:02:06.960 baseball supremacy can be yours. 0:02:07.000 --> 0:02:07.880 So blame your. 0:02:07.760 --> 0:02:12.440 Prize then by ringing that bell for notifications, Welsh, Let's 0:02:12.440 --> 0:02:14.320 start with the All Bus team. And as I said 0:02:14.360 --> 0:02:17.240 before going into the show, obviously this is the time 0:02:17.280 --> 0:02:19.240 of year where you know, we're trying to evaluate the 0:02:19.240 --> 0:02:23.280 talent and the talent most importantly in that consensus rankings, 0:02:23.320 --> 0:02:25.520 in the consensus ADP, both of which you can find 0:02:25.520 --> 0:02:28.639 over at Fantasypros dot com. That's available for you any 0:02:28.639 --> 0:02:30.519 time over there. But to me, Welsh, when you're looking 0:02:30.520 --> 0:02:34.239 at Bus, it's also you know, taking the player most importantly, 0:02:34.280 --> 0:02:36.400 taking the circumstance in which the players in in twenty 0:02:36.400 --> 0:02:38.200 twenty four, I think that is the most important thing. 0:02:38.520 --> 0:02:40.840 How do you identify Bus typically as well when you're 0:02:40.880 --> 0:02:42.320 looking at trying to avoid it. And I'm not saying 0:02:42.320 --> 0:02:44.600 you're avoiding all these players because maybe it's one or 0:02:44.639 --> 0:02:46.680 two you're willing to take that risk on anyway. 0:02:46.480 --> 0:02:50.720 Yeah, it's it's tough because I'm not as black and 0:02:50.720 --> 0:02:52.079 white as a lot of other people. A lot of 0:02:52.080 --> 0:02:54.080 people will be like this guy sucks, you can never 0:02:54.080 --> 0:02:56.200 blah blah blah, or this is the best player. I 0:02:56.320 --> 0:02:59.160 do live in gray areas, I think. And this is 0:02:59.160 --> 0:03:00.720 going to come back to the answer. It's kind of 0:03:00.760 --> 0:03:03.800 sometimes about cost, like sometimes production is just going to 0:03:03.840 --> 0:03:06.400 completely fail, you know. Funny enough, a little pat on 0:03:06.400 --> 0:03:08.600 my own back. I just put together that article we 0:03:08.680 --> 0:03:11.200 it talked about in the last episode, the cheat sheet. 0:03:11.280 --> 0:03:13.240 But I was looking at my cheat sheet from last year. 0:03:13.440 --> 0:03:15.639 There's lots of stuff we all like don't get right, 0:03:15.800 --> 0:03:17.480 and you look and you're like, oh, okay, this guy 0:03:17.560 --> 0:03:19.200 kind of I was looking at like my favorite guys, 0:03:20.000 --> 0:03:22.080 Corn Carroll, right, that's sure. Oh yeah, no, he was 0:03:22.080 --> 0:03:24.919 my favorite guy by fourth round. But I was looking 0:03:25.000 --> 0:03:27.080 and I'm leading this in. I looked at the guys 0:03:27.120 --> 0:03:30.040 I was avoiding. I nailed that. I don't think I've 0:03:30.080 --> 0:03:34.800 ever been more accurate then my avoid twenty twenty three list, 0:03:35.040 --> 0:03:37.720 Dylan Cees, Alec Minoa. It was great, and it was 0:03:37.760 --> 0:03:40.360 great in that, but so sometimes are players like Manoa 0:03:40.360 --> 0:03:42.520 and cs. I just wanted no part of under any circumstance. 0:03:42.560 --> 0:03:45.920 But are there players if their cost wasn't quite there 0:03:45.920 --> 0:03:48.120 that I would draft? Yeah, sure, I can get into that. 0:03:48.200 --> 0:03:51.040 So I think a lot of the bust can end 0:03:51.120 --> 0:03:53.320 up becoming about that player being able to return the 0:03:53.440 --> 0:03:56.280 value of where you're drafting a guy. So that's kind 0:03:56.280 --> 0:03:59.360 of like my core piece to it, because yes, I 0:03:59.400 --> 0:04:02.560 could sometimes draft some of these players, but that's a 0:04:02.600 --> 0:04:05.280 lot of my attack here because you know these guys, 0:04:05.760 --> 0:04:07.800 they can turn it around in a heartbeat. We're seeing 0:04:07.840 --> 0:04:11.200 baseball change on a dime. With all the rules, anything 0:04:11.280 --> 0:04:13.480 can happen. But a lot of my bust is going 0:04:13.560 --> 0:04:17.080 to be based on boy, do I hate the costs 0:04:17.080 --> 0:04:18.840 that I'm taking on these players and I don't think 0:04:18.880 --> 0:04:20.800 they can return what you're investing in. 0:04:20.960 --> 0:04:23.719 Yeah, And for me it is again, I'm willing to 0:04:23.760 --> 0:04:26.760 take chances on certain players here, but I also understand 0:04:26.800 --> 0:04:29.800 that you have to understand that there's bust potential in 0:04:29.839 --> 0:04:31.599 some of these names too, even though you might be 0:04:31.640 --> 0:04:33.880 willing to draft them if they do fall around longer 0:04:33.920 --> 0:04:36.160 than they should. And some players are going to be 0:04:36.240 --> 0:04:37.920 some you know, high end players on this list that 0:04:37.920 --> 0:04:39.440 we're going to talk about today, and some lower end 0:04:39.480 --> 0:04:42.320 players too, because everybody thinks everybody's just a value just 0:04:42.320 --> 0:04:45.039 because they're lower. Well, not necessarily. Sometimes that's a waste 0:04:45.080 --> 0:04:47.160 of a pick too. So without further ado, let's get 0:04:47.160 --> 0:04:48.919 to it. Let's talk about our all bust team for 0:04:48.920 --> 0:04:51.280 twenty twenty four. Let's start a catcher. Welsh who made 0:04:51.440 --> 0:04:52.200 the list for you? 0:04:52.440 --> 0:04:54.680 Well, I could have put them all. I like yours 0:04:54.680 --> 0:04:57.599 that you're about to say, I don't like hi end catcher, 0:04:57.720 --> 0:05:01.320 so I'm probably going to identify top one hundred catcher, 0:05:01.720 --> 0:05:04.760 and that's what I did. I'm picking on the fourth 0:05:04.800 --> 0:05:10.040 catcher according to Fantasy Pro's consensus ranks ADP of seventy 0:05:10.080 --> 0:05:14.400 four picking on William Contreras, who is a very popular 0:05:14.440 --> 0:05:16.599 pick for a lot of people because of some of 0:05:16.600 --> 0:05:21.280 the power potential. Yet last year, William Contrere's only seventeen 0:05:21.320 --> 0:05:23.520 homers in one hundred and forty games rand a really 0:05:23.600 --> 0:05:27.640 high batting average, except his expected batting average was almost 0:05:27.680 --> 0:05:32.200 forty points lower. He also had a career low launch angle. 0:05:32.520 --> 0:05:35.480 His expected slug was lower, well, on all the numbers, 0:05:35.520 --> 0:05:37.720 lower lower though he hit the ball harder, So hitting 0:05:37.720 --> 0:05:39.680 the ball harder is always going to give you that 0:05:39.760 --> 0:05:42.280 baseline They did bring in Gary Sanchez, who I think 0:05:42.360 --> 0:05:45.159 is going to be more of a primary DH, but 0:05:45.279 --> 0:05:48.960 that is somebody for them to take Contreras out in 0:05:49.080 --> 0:05:52.520 some instances. I'm just not in love with the idea 0:05:52.560 --> 0:05:55.159 that Contreras is going to be some thirty home run 0:05:55.440 --> 0:05:58.400 catcher like some believe he is. I think the batting 0:05:58.400 --> 0:06:01.359 average could dip. He's not proved in other spots. We 0:06:01.400 --> 0:06:03.640 saw what the one hundred and forty games are. Bottom line, 0:06:03.680 --> 0:06:05.680 I don't like catchers in the top one hundred. I 0:06:05.760 --> 0:06:08.400 think there's so much value later. So I am going 0:06:08.480 --> 0:06:10.680 to bust William Contreras. 0:06:10.960 --> 0:06:13.400 Yeah, high end catchers. I'm also out on so JT. 0:06:13.560 --> 0:06:15.279 Real Muto was mine. I've talked about him in some 0:06:15.279 --> 0:06:17.320 of the videos already on Fantasy Pros. But this is 0:06:17.360 --> 0:06:19.440 a guy who's batting average fell last year. You know, 0:06:19.520 --> 0:06:24.000 twenty points, the OBP fell, thirty points, the slugging percentage fell. 0:06:24.120 --> 0:06:27.360 I mean, all these indicators are there, and the ops completely, 0:06:27.800 --> 0:06:30.040 you know, almost sixty point difference year over a year, 0:06:30.120 --> 0:06:32.679 and go from eight twenty to seven to sixty two. Look, 0:06:33.000 --> 0:06:35.600 I understand he's still had twenty homers. 0:06:35.600 --> 0:06:37.479 I understand he's still had sixteen stolen bases. 0:06:37.520 --> 0:06:39.480 So I get from a roto perspective, especially in two 0:06:39.480 --> 0:06:42.119 catcher leagues, if you'r a nut job was still playing 0:06:42.160 --> 0:06:45.600 those that he has value, I get it, But I'm 0:06:45.640 --> 0:06:47.159 also trying to factor in the age here. He's going 0:06:47.200 --> 0:06:49.320 to be thirty three years old. We've seen guys like 0:06:49.440 --> 0:06:52.400 Brian McCann right great catchers and fantasy for a long 0:06:52.440 --> 0:06:55.039 period of time. Once they hit those early thirties, you 0:06:55.040 --> 0:06:56.760 start to see that decline. I feel like you're starting 0:06:56.760 --> 0:06:59.400 to see with Real Mutum. My concern Welsh is if 0:06:59.400 --> 0:07:01.000 you continue to see it that he gets dropped in 0:07:01.040 --> 0:07:03.039 the order, and if that happens, it could hurt all 0:07:03.040 --> 0:07:06.159 of his counting stats too. So that basically why I 0:07:06.200 --> 0:07:07.920 think Real Muto has bus potential. 0:07:07.920 --> 0:07:09.520 In twenty twenty four, let's take. 0:07:09.440 --> 0:07:10.880 A quick break in the action and tell you about 0:07:10.920 --> 0:07:14.679 Underdog Fantasy. MLB draft season is here, and the easiest 0:07:14.720 --> 0:07:17.720 place to play fantasy baseball is it Underdog Fantasy. We've 0:07:17.720 --> 0:07:20.640 already been active in their best ball format fantasy drafts, 0:07:20.680 --> 0:07:22.760 where you draft your team over twenty rounds at the 0:07:22.800 --> 0:07:26.120 best score from your team that you drafted becomes your 0:07:26.200 --> 0:07:28.920 score for each week. In the MLB season. 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Speaking of phillies or ex phillies, 0:08:11.120 --> 0:08:13.760 and I'll start with the first baseman here. Reese Hoskins 0:08:13.760 --> 0:08:15.640 for me, is on this list. And I know he 0:08:15.680 --> 0:08:17.240 might be saying, but he's so cheap. He's at one 0:08:17.360 --> 0:08:19.800 eighty eight overall. Why do you think he's a bust. 0:08:19.800 --> 0:08:21.600 I'm not saying he is a bust. I'm saying he 0:08:21.600 --> 0:08:24.360 has bust potential and I want to harke him. Back 0:08:24.400 --> 0:08:28.280 to Michael Conforto's twenty twenty three season where he hadn't 0:08:28.280 --> 0:08:31.040 played for a whole year and he came back and 0:08:31.520 --> 0:08:34.720 it just didn't go so well. And I understand that 0:08:35.120 --> 0:08:37.480 Reese Hoskins is a slightly better player than Confordo, But 0:08:37.480 --> 0:08:38.840 if you go back and look at Conforto, he had 0:08:38.840 --> 0:08:40.559 some peaks there for the Mets once upon a time 0:08:40.760 --> 0:08:42.240 a few years ago as a player that looks like 0:08:42.240 --> 0:08:44.679 a thirty home run guy potentially in the league, and 0:08:44.720 --> 0:08:45.160 then things. 0:08:45.040 --> 0:08:45.840 Really didn't work out. 0:08:45.880 --> 0:08:47.880 But Hoskins, although he's a better player, and I like 0:08:47.920 --> 0:08:51.079 the ballpark factor more than where Confordo ultimately ended up. 0:08:51.360 --> 0:08:53.440 I like Hoskins in Milwaukee. I took him in a 0:08:53.520 --> 0:08:54.959 draft just this week. 0:08:55.679 --> 0:08:57.800 At the same time, I have to recognize there is 0:08:58.000 --> 0:09:00.800 a bust factor you have to be aware of when 0:09:00.800 --> 0:09:03.520 it comes to Hoskins because he hasn't played an entire year. 0:09:03.679 --> 0:09:06.600 You saw Trey Mancini be off for an entire year. 0:09:07.480 --> 0:09:10.199 Obviously different circumstances, But at the same time, I think 0:09:10.240 --> 0:09:12.640 you have to take that into account and realize, despite 0:09:12.679 --> 0:09:15.200 the fact you're getting a huge discount race Hoskins, there 0:09:15.400 --> 0:09:18.560 is that potential where either he doesn't hit the ground 0:09:18.640 --> 0:09:21.400 running again, or it takes you know, a good few 0:09:21.440 --> 0:09:23.160 months for him to really get back in a groove. 0:09:23.200 --> 0:09:25.840 Do you think I'm crazy for calling Hoskins a potential bust? 0:09:25.960 --> 0:09:29.400 I mean, I'm a Hoskins guy so like to but. 0:09:29.880 --> 0:09:32.600 To recognize that it's possible, right, Yeah, I. 0:09:32.520 --> 0:09:35.480 Think of the possibility. Is there my biggest argument, because 0:09:36.760 --> 0:09:39.000 you know, the two bus elements are this guy's just 0:09:39.040 --> 0:09:41.360 going to stink and he's going to be stank, or 0:09:41.679 --> 0:09:44.840 this guy is not going to return the value. I 0:09:44.960 --> 0:09:47.320 find it very hard because I believe Hoskins is going 0:09:47.360 --> 0:09:49.840 to return to being a thirty home run hitter. I 0:09:49.880 --> 0:09:52.440 find it really impossible that he's not going to be 0:09:52.440 --> 0:09:55.800 able to return like a top one fifty EIGHTYP value. 0:09:55.920 --> 0:09:58.480 So you're a little crazy in my brain, Joey, I 0:09:58.480 --> 0:09:59.360 love Race Hoskins. 0:09:59.520 --> 0:10:00.720 Well, I guess here is the thing. 0:10:00.800 --> 0:10:02.440 If he ends up being a twenty home run guy, 0:10:02.480 --> 0:10:05.040 I think it's a little disappointing just saying even at 0:10:05.040 --> 0:10:06.600 one eighty eight, I think would be a little bit 0:10:06.640 --> 0:10:09.560 of a disappointment for me personally because I'm like you, 0:10:09.640 --> 0:10:11.679 I do see him as a value. I will take him, 0:10:11.720 --> 0:10:15.000 but I have to acknowledge that there is the range 0:10:15.040 --> 0:10:17.360 of outcomes. Is our good friend Derek Brown likes to say, 0:10:17.600 --> 0:10:20.200 where Hoskins doesn't exactly look great for the first half 0:10:20.200 --> 0:10:22.079 of the season or maybe the entire season, is he's 0:10:22.120 --> 0:10:24.480 trying to work his way back. I mean, it's just 0:10:24.520 --> 0:10:26.040 one of those things you have to understand. Who made 0:10:26.080 --> 0:10:29.440 the first base team for you in all bust team. 0:10:29.600 --> 0:10:31.840 That's actually really interesting that last thing that you said 0:10:31.880 --> 0:10:34.560 that the possibility and this is something I think that 0:10:34.600 --> 0:10:38.719 should be accounted for with talking about bus is a 0:10:38.760 --> 0:10:42.000 player in the grand scope of a season can end 0:10:42.080 --> 0:10:44.800 up like kind of returning their value. But when a 0:10:44.880 --> 0:10:47.720 guy is a dud for half of a year and 0:10:47.760 --> 0:10:50.079 they're killing your team and maybe you're in consideration to 0:10:50.120 --> 0:10:52.480 cutting them or you possibly do, and then they bounce back, 0:10:52.559 --> 0:10:54.520 I don't give them. I don't give them the extra 0:10:54.600 --> 0:10:57.240 credit because they return that value. To your point, with 0:10:57.280 --> 0:11:00.600 Reice Hoskins, mine is kind of the same thing. And 0:11:00.800 --> 0:11:03.680 I'm gonna do the most anti Homer thing ever, and 0:11:03.679 --> 0:11:07.160 I'm gonna pick on a diamondback old Christian Walker. Christian 0:11:07.200 --> 0:11:11.360 Walker as my bust here who really suffered in the 0:11:11.400 --> 0:11:13.160 back half of the year. Hitting two zero five in 0:11:13.160 --> 0:11:16.280 the final month of the season, then took that struggle 0:11:16.320 --> 0:11:19.599 bus into the playoffs and killed I mean Barre. The 0:11:19.679 --> 0:11:23.480 Diamonbacks were able to like push past his struggles. He 0:11:23.559 --> 0:11:25.640 did nothing to help outside of a double in the 0:11:25.679 --> 0:11:28.199 World Series. I'm worried he's going to take that in 0:11:28.559 --> 0:11:30.880 and we're going to have another struggle in the first 0:11:30.960 --> 0:11:34.480 half here. His hard hit percentage ended up dropping, launch 0:11:34.480 --> 0:11:38.080 angle was going down, expected batting average was lower. Yet 0:11:38.320 --> 0:11:41.920 we're paying the highest cost of Christian Walker ever. He's 0:11:41.960 --> 0:11:45.440 going off at seventy two in the rank, seventy seven 0:11:45.480 --> 0:11:48.920 and adp as the eight first, eighth first baseman. He's 0:11:49.040 --> 0:11:51.640 right in the same general vicinity as Paul Goldschmidt and 0:11:51.720 --> 0:11:54.800 Cody Bellinger and guys behind him. We're going to talk 0:11:54.800 --> 0:11:58.480 about another episode. I love Tristan Cossas. I think Spencer Torkelsen, 0:11:58.760 --> 0:12:02.160 outside of ballpark factors, is a player that is ninety 0:12:02.240 --> 0:12:05.640 to ninety five percent of Christian Walker Walker. The advantage 0:12:05.679 --> 0:12:07.960 he has is he has hit for some higher batting 0:12:08.000 --> 0:12:10.800 average and put up monster RBI numbers last year. I'm 0:12:10.800 --> 0:12:13.800 not sure that that is going to continue, and I'm 0:12:13.800 --> 0:12:16.000 worried the struggles from last year are going to carry 0:12:16.000 --> 0:12:17.520 over a little bit. There's a little bit of injury 0:12:17.559 --> 0:12:22.040 stuff already in spring. I'm gonna bust Christian Walker, especially 0:12:22.200 --> 0:12:25.360 at that cost, because that advantage has gone where you 0:12:25.440 --> 0:12:27.320 draft him at one point fifty and you get the 0:12:27.360 --> 0:12:30.160 return of a seventy five overall player. He has to 0:12:30.320 --> 0:12:33.360 perform at the level from last season, I think, to 0:12:33.400 --> 0:12:36.080 return the value. So we will bust the diamond about 0:12:36.160 --> 0:12:36.800 Christian Walker. 0:12:37.000 --> 0:12:38.520 Yeah, I feel like that's kind of a clump there. 0:12:38.559 --> 0:12:42.360 Once you get past Jones and gold Schmith, Walker, Cassas Steer, 0:12:42.440 --> 0:12:44.199 we'll talk about him coming up to you. But I 0:12:44.240 --> 0:12:46.640 feel like that that's the big drop off after gold Schmith. 0:12:46.960 --> 0:12:48.520 That's why I always like gold Shmith too, because I 0:12:48.520 --> 0:12:51.400 feel like this guy they really feel pretty steady about. 0:12:51.440 --> 0:12:54.640 Still a guy you don't feel steady about at second base. 0:12:54.760 --> 0:12:55.760 It's the same guy. 0:12:55.600 --> 0:12:58.720 That I don't. It's Nico Horner. You've been riding this 0:12:58.840 --> 0:13:01.440 train into the ground for or pretty much all of 0:13:01.520 --> 0:13:04.439 pre draft season here into draft season. So Wels, I'll 0:13:04.520 --> 0:13:05.400 let you start first year. 0:13:05.400 --> 0:13:06.160 When it comes to Nico. 0:13:06.280 --> 0:13:07.960 When I saw you had him on here, I was like, 0:13:08.000 --> 0:13:10.880 we're going together we're gonna we're holding hands into the sunset. 0:13:10.920 --> 0:13:13.800 On bust and Nico Horner. It is not that Nico 0:13:13.920 --> 0:13:17.760 Horner is a bad player. Ninety eight runs is phenomenal. 0:13:17.800 --> 0:13:21.160 He's actually kind of turning into like the Brandon Nimo 0:13:21.440 --> 0:13:24.240 of that middle infield. And he stole a ton of bases. 0:13:24.880 --> 0:13:29.800 But his value, I think is heavily heavily weighted based 0:13:29.800 --> 0:13:32.640 on his costs on those stolen bases. I will admit 0:13:32.679 --> 0:13:35.720 he is a three category player. He's a nothing burger 0:13:35.840 --> 0:13:39.840 on the other two single digit homers RBI's I guess 0:13:39.880 --> 0:13:42.160 nothing to throw away at sixty eight is still like service. 0:13:42.240 --> 0:13:43.520 That's because of lineup placement. 0:13:43.559 --> 0:13:46.120 But again, lineup placement is why my whole thing was 0:13:46.559 --> 0:13:48.680 six hundred and eighty eight played appearances last year. You know, 0:13:48.760 --> 0:13:51.240 like the volume is king right, So if for any 0:13:51.280 --> 0:13:53.480 reason he doesn't recreate that volume, you have to be 0:13:53.600 --> 0:13:55.319 worried he doesn't recreate that productivity. 0:13:55.559 --> 0:13:58.600 And it's fifty eight overall, fifty eight overall on ADP, 0:13:59.160 --> 0:14:02.440 and I think that cost is built in simply on 0:14:02.480 --> 0:14:06.320 the stolen bases. Projections don't like or repeat. They're about 0:14:06.480 --> 0:14:10.080 ten to twelve less across the board. I also don't 0:14:10.160 --> 0:14:13.720 like him to go over forty and because stolen bases 0:14:13.760 --> 0:14:17.840 are just more plentiful and you can get Bryson Stott, 0:14:17.880 --> 0:14:20.840 in my mind, is like a Nico Horner light that's 0:14:20.880 --> 0:14:24.120 a player Andres Jimenez is the true Nico Horner light. 0:14:24.400 --> 0:14:26.840 I can get Andres Jmenez outside the top one hundred, 0:14:27.160 --> 0:14:30.160 get more homers. I think I can get within eighty 0:14:30.200 --> 0:14:33.400 five percent on stolen bases. Average is probably the same. 0:14:33.720 --> 0:14:36.000 Maybe I sacrifice the little runs blah blah blah, but 0:14:36.080 --> 0:14:39.560 I'm saying, like ninety percent ish of Nico Horner fifty 0:14:39.600 --> 0:14:42.480 to sixty spots later, that's what I'm gonna do. I'm busted, 0:14:42.520 --> 0:14:43.880 Nico Horner. I know you're there with me. 0:14:44.040 --> 0:14:44.360 I am. 0:14:44.880 --> 0:14:47.360 It is also really for me the ADP in which 0:14:47.360 --> 0:14:49.640 he's going I just think it's a little too high. 0:14:49.640 --> 0:14:52.920 He's going ahead right now consensus ADP on Fantasy Bros. 0:14:53.000 --> 0:14:57.360 Of Paul Goldschmith, ahead of Nolan Jones, ahead of Royce Lewis, 0:14:57.600 --> 0:14:59.200 which is a player that I think is a five 0:14:59.280 --> 0:14:59.960 category player. 0:15:00.280 --> 0:15:01.640 So I don't I don't get this at all. 0:15:01.760 --> 0:15:03.840 I understand that it's a big number of stolen bases 0:15:03.880 --> 0:15:06.760 I get that, but to your point earlier Welsh, it's 0:15:06.800 --> 0:15:09.600 easier to find steals later in the draft too, So 0:15:09.720 --> 0:15:12.440 why am I paying almost, you know, a premium basically 0:15:12.480 --> 0:15:14.400 for a guy who is, as you pointed out, and 0:15:14.440 --> 0:15:17.440 I think it's very true, a three category player at best. 0:15:17.480 --> 0:15:19.840 I don't see the power developing for Nico Horner. I 0:15:19.920 --> 0:15:21.920 like the player, I just don't like the ADP. Now 0:15:21.960 --> 0:15:24.080 what I take Nico Horner if he was going closer 0:15:24.120 --> 0:15:27.760 to seventy five ninety range, yes, but in the top 0:15:27.800 --> 0:15:29.520 fifty ish, I just think it's. 0:15:29.600 --> 0:15:31.720 No where he's closer to Andres Jimenez you would take 0:15:31.720 --> 0:15:33.840 it right. I will say, you know, one of the 0:15:33.880 --> 0:15:37.360 battles here in great episode we did with Ario Cohen 0:15:37.400 --> 0:15:39.880 if you want to hear about ATC projections on the 0:15:39.880 --> 0:15:43.560 YouTube channel. In the podcast is like Ariol admitted that 0:15:43.640 --> 0:15:47.960 like the guys that pop in the system are batting average, 0:15:48.040 --> 0:15:51.200 and Ariol believes that runs are like a bigger fantasy 0:15:51.200 --> 0:15:53.680 correlation right now, and that is something that Nico does 0:15:53.840 --> 0:15:55.720 a pretty decent job of on both fronts. Like a 0:15:55.800 --> 0:15:58.400 high batting average two eighty plus and he almost scored 0:15:58.400 --> 0:16:01.360 one hundred runs. Those are going to value higher. So 0:16:01.400 --> 0:16:03.560 I think that is part of why, like you're auction 0:16:03.640 --> 0:16:05.960 calculators are going to value him a little bit above. 0:16:06.000 --> 0:16:09.080 But I think the depleted homers like I'm chasing power 0:16:09.120 --> 0:16:11.480 even more in drafts this year. Yeah, and he's a 0:16:11.520 --> 0:16:14.000 nothing on this and stolen bases, I don't feel the 0:16:14.040 --> 0:16:17.240 same weight of I mean, forty is incredible, but like 0:16:17.320 --> 0:16:19.920 I have to get forty, you don't. I mean, you 0:16:19.960 --> 0:16:24.160 can literally save your stolen base projections with Estory Ruiz 0:16:24.160 --> 0:16:26.040 a little bit later while you've sprinkled in ten to 0:16:26.080 --> 0:16:29.640 fifteen across the board. It's not to be totally dismissive 0:16:29.680 --> 0:16:33.000 of Nico Horner. There is value runs in average are 0:16:33.080 --> 0:16:35.280 hard to find on the wire and everything, but the 0:16:35.400 --> 0:16:36.320 cost is. 0:16:36.320 --> 0:16:38.280 Just really high. I can't do it, Walsh. 0:16:38.360 --> 0:16:41.000 Not if Nolan Jroones is on the board, a guy 0:16:41.000 --> 0:16:44.040 who get it relatively in the same range of average, 0:16:44.080 --> 0:16:46.760 a guy who can have thirty thirty potentially. I mean, 0:16:46.800 --> 0:16:48.720 there's just no way. I'm just not doing it. Third 0:16:48.760 --> 0:16:50.960 base here for my All Bus team. This is a 0:16:50.960 --> 0:16:52.600 player that I was really in on last year. He's 0:16:52.600 --> 0:16:54.200 probably All Sleeper Team last year. I have to go 0:16:54.280 --> 0:16:56.640 back and watch. But as Josh Young of the Texas Rangers. 0:16:57.240 --> 0:16:59.520 I like Josh Young. Again, this is not like me 0:16:59.680 --> 0:17:02.440 turning on Josh Young. You look at the counting stats 0:17:02.440 --> 0:17:03.680 at the end of the year, you go, hey, this 0:17:03.720 --> 0:17:05.320 is a really good season. He was in the early 0:17:05.400 --> 0:17:07.720 discussion for Rookie of the Year last year. Is a 0:17:07.840 --> 0:17:12.400 very strong season. Twenty three homers, seventy RBI, seventy five runs. 0:17:12.440 --> 0:17:15.240 He did miss some time there last year. But some 0:17:15.320 --> 0:17:18.080 other deeper issues there with Josh Young. The first one 0:17:18.119 --> 0:17:20.680 that I want to bring up is against right handed pitching, 0:17:20.720 --> 0:17:23.000 just two forty seven. That's a problem for me. You're 0:17:23.040 --> 0:17:26.040 gonna face more right handed pitching in the American League. 0:17:26.320 --> 0:17:29.840 Two ninety nine OBP, a four to nineteen slugging, seven 0:17:29.920 --> 0:17:33.440 eighteen ops against righty's. That's not good enough. That is 0:17:33.480 --> 0:17:36.000 a red flag to me. Also a red flag second 0:17:36.040 --> 0:17:36.560 half of the year. 0:17:36.560 --> 0:17:37.320 Now, I am. 0:17:37.280 --> 0:17:39.439 Counting into the fact that health was part of it, 0:17:39.480 --> 0:17:42.159 But at the same time, Welsh over his final thirty 0:17:42.160 --> 0:17:44.200 four games in the second half, he hit just two 0:17:44.240 --> 0:17:45.919 twenty nine with a two to seventy one OBP and 0:17:45.920 --> 0:17:48.320 a three to sixty six slugging. That reeks to me 0:17:48.359 --> 0:17:50.240