Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy
Speaker 1: Baseball Podcast. Is Me Joe Pi Zapia, and today we're
Speaker 1: gonna look on the other side of things. We're gonna
Speaker 1: take a look at potential bust players. And it's not
Speaker 1: that we hate the players. Sometimes we just hate the
Speaker 1: adp although sometimes we might hate the players.
Speaker 2: We'll see how the show goes.
Speaker 1: Joining me is always my good pal of the Welsh
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Speaker 1: Prize then by ringing that bell for notifications, Welsh, Let's
Speaker 1: start with the All Bus team. And as I said
Speaker 1: before going into the show, obviously this is the time
Speaker 1: of year where you know, we're trying to evaluate the
Speaker 1: talent and the talent most importantly in that consensus rankings,
Speaker 1: in the consensus ADP, both of which you can find
Speaker 1: over at Fantasypros dot com. That's available for you any
Speaker 1: time over there. But to me, Welsh, when you're looking
Speaker 1: at Bus, it's also you know, taking the player most importantly,
Speaker 1: taking the circumstance in which the players in in twenty
Speaker 1: twenty four, I think that is the most important thing.
Speaker 1: How do you identify Bus typically as well when you're
Speaker 1: looking at trying to avoid it. And I'm not saying
Speaker 1: you're avoiding all these players because maybe it's one or
Speaker 1: two you're willing to take that risk on anyway.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's tough because I'm not as black and
Speaker 3: white as a lot of other people. A lot of
Speaker 3: people will be like this guy sucks, you can never
Speaker 3: blah blah blah, or this is the best player. I
Speaker 3: do live in gray areas, I think. And this is
Speaker 3: going to come back to the answer. It's kind of
Speaker 3: sometimes about cost, like sometimes production is just going to
Speaker 3: completely fail, you know. Funny enough, a little pat on
Speaker 3: my own back. I just put together that article we
Speaker 3: it talked about in the last episode, the cheat sheet.
Speaker 3: But I was looking at my cheat sheet from last year.
Speaker 3: There's lots of stuff we all like don't get right,
Speaker 3: and you look and you're like, oh, okay, this guy
Speaker 3: kind of I was looking at like my favorite guys,
Speaker 3: Corn Carroll, right, that's sure. Oh yeah, no, he was
Speaker 3: my favorite guy by fourth round. But I was looking
Speaker 3: and I'm leading this in. I looked at the guys
Speaker 3: I was avoiding. I nailed that. I don't think I've
Speaker 3: ever been more accurate then my avoid twenty twenty three list,
Speaker 3: Dylan Cees, Alec Minoa. It was great, and it was
Speaker 3: great in that, but so sometimes are players like Manoa
Speaker 3: and cs. I just wanted no part of under any circumstance.
Speaker 3: But are there players if their cost wasn't quite there
Speaker 3: that I would draft? Yeah, sure, I can get into that.
Speaker 3: So I think a lot of the bust can end
Speaker 3: up becoming about that player being able to return the
Speaker 3: value of where you're drafting a guy. So that's kind
Speaker 3: of like my core piece to it, because yes, I
Speaker 3: could sometimes draft some of these players, but that's a
Speaker 3: lot of my attack here because you know these guys,
Speaker 3: they can turn it around in a heartbeat. We're seeing
Speaker 3: baseball change on a dime. With all the rules, anything
Speaker 3: can happen. But a lot of my bust is going
Speaker 3: to be based on boy, do I hate the costs
Speaker 3: that I'm taking on these players and I don't think
Speaker 3: they can return what you're investing in.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And for me it is again, I'm willing to
Speaker 1: take chances on certain players here, but I also understand
Speaker 1: that you have to understand that there's bust potential in
Speaker 1: some of these names too, even though you might be
Speaker 1: willing to draft them if they do fall around longer
Speaker 1: than they should. And some players are going to be
Speaker 1: some you know, high end players on this list that
Speaker 1: we're going to talk about today, and some lower end
Speaker 1: players too, because everybody thinks everybody's just a value just
Speaker 1: because they're lower. Well, not necessarily. Sometimes that's a waste
Speaker 1: of a pick too. So without further ado, let's get
Speaker 1: to it. Let's talk about our all bust team for
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four. Let's start a catcher. Welsh who made
Speaker 1: the list for you?
Speaker 3: Well, I could have put them all. I like yours
Speaker 3: that you're about to say, I don't like hi end catcher,
Speaker 3: so I'm probably going to identify top one hundred catcher,
Speaker 3: and that's what I did. I'm picking on the fourth
Speaker 3: catcher according to Fantasy Pro's consensus ranks ADP of seventy
Speaker 3: four picking on William Contreras, who is a very popular
Speaker 3: pick for a lot of people because of some of
Speaker 3: the power potential. Yet last year, William Contrere's only seventeen
Speaker 3: homers in one hundred and forty games rand a really
Speaker 3: high batting average, except his expected batting average was almost
Speaker 3: forty points lower. He also had a career low launch angle.
Speaker 3: His expected slug was lower, well, on all the numbers,
Speaker 3: lower lower though he hit the ball harder, So hitting
Speaker 3: the ball harder is always going to give you that
Speaker 3: baseline They did bring in Gary Sanchez, who I think
Speaker 3: is going to be more of a primary DH, but
Speaker 3: that is somebody for them to take Contreras out in
Speaker 3: some instances. I'm just not in love with the idea
Speaker 3: that Contreras is going to be some thirty home run
Speaker 3: catcher like some believe he is. I think the batting
Speaker 3: average could dip. He's not proved in other spots. We
Speaker 3: saw what the one hundred and forty games are. Bottom line,
Speaker 3: I don't like catchers in the top one hundred. I
Speaker 3: think there's so much value later. So I am going
Speaker 3: to bust William Contreras.
Speaker 1: Yeah, high end catchers. I'm also out on so JT.
Speaker 1: Real Muto was mine. I've talked about him in some
Speaker 1: of the videos already on Fantasy Pros. But this is
Speaker 1: a guy who's batting average fell last year. You know,
Speaker 1: twenty points, the OBP fell, thirty points, the slugging percentage fell.
Speaker 1: I mean, all these indicators are there, and the ops completely,
Speaker 1: you know, almost sixty point difference year over a year,
Speaker 1: and go from eight twenty to seven to sixty two. Look,
Speaker 1: I understand he's still had twenty homers.
Speaker 2: I understand he's still had sixteen stolen bases.
Speaker 1: So I get from a roto perspective, especially in two
Speaker 1: catcher leagues, if you'r a nut job was still playing
Speaker 1: those that he has value, I get it, But I'm
Speaker 1: also trying to factor in the age here. He's going
Speaker 1: to be thirty three years old. We've seen guys like
Speaker 1: Brian McCann right great catchers and fantasy for a long
Speaker 1: period of time. Once they hit those early thirties, you
Speaker 1: start to see that decline. I feel like you're starting
Speaker 1: to see with Real Mutum. My concern Welsh is if
Speaker 1: you continue to see it that he gets dropped in
Speaker 1: the order, and if that happens, it could hurt all
Speaker 1: of his counting stats too. So that basically why I
Speaker 1: think Real Muto has bus potential.
Speaker 2: In twenty twenty four, let's take.
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Speaker 1: now back to the action. Speaking of phillies or ex phillies,
Speaker 1: and I'll start with the first baseman here. Reese Hoskins
Speaker 1: for me, is on this list. And I know he
Speaker 1: might be saying, but he's so cheap. He's at one
Speaker 1: eighty eight overall. Why do you think he's a bust.
Speaker 1: I'm not saying he is a bust. I'm saying he
Speaker 1: has bust potential and I want to harke him. Back
Speaker 1: to Michael Conforto's twenty twenty three season where he hadn't
Speaker 1: played for a whole year and he came back and
Speaker 1: it just didn't go so well. And I understand that
Speaker 1: Reese Hoskins is a slightly better player than Confordo, But
Speaker 1: if you go back and look at Conforto, he had
Speaker 1: some peaks there for the Mets once upon a time
Speaker 1: a few years ago as a player that looks like
Speaker 1: a thirty home run guy potentially in the league, and
Speaker 1: then things.
Speaker 2: Really didn't work out.
Speaker 1: But Hoskins, although he's a better player, and I like
Speaker 1: the ballpark factor more than where Confordo ultimately ended up.
Speaker 2: I like Hoskins in Milwaukee. I took him in a
Speaker 2: draft just this week.
Speaker 1: At the same time, I have to recognize there is
Speaker 1: a bust factor you have to be aware of when
Speaker 1: it comes to Hoskins because he hasn't played an entire year.
Speaker 1: You saw Trey Mancini be off for an entire year.
Speaker 1: Obviously different circumstances, But at the same time, I think
Speaker 1: you have to take that into account and realize, despite
Speaker 1: the fact you're getting a huge discount race Hoskins, there
Speaker 1: is that potential where either he doesn't hit the ground
Speaker 1: running again, or it takes you know, a good few
Speaker 1: months for him to really get back in a groove.
Speaker 1: Do you think I'm crazy for calling Hoskins a potential bust?
Speaker 3: I mean, I'm a Hoskins guy so like to but.
Speaker 2: To recognize that it's possible, right, Yeah, I.
Speaker 3: Think of the possibility. Is there my biggest argument, because
Speaker 3: you know, the two bus elements are this guy's just
Speaker 3: going to stink and he's going to be stank, or
Speaker 3: this guy is not going to return the value. I
Speaker 3: find it very hard because I believe Hoskins is going
Speaker 3: to return to being a thirty home run hitter. I
Speaker 3: find it really impossible that he's not going to be
Speaker 3: able to return like a top one fifty EIGHTYP value.
Speaker 3: So you're a little crazy in my brain, Joey, I
Speaker 3: love Race Hoskins.
Speaker 2: Well, I guess here is the thing.
Speaker 1: If he ends up being a twenty home run guy,
Speaker 1: I think it's a little disappointing just saying even at
Speaker 1: one eighty eight, I think would be a little bit
Speaker 1: of a disappointment for me personally because I'm like you,
Speaker 1: I do see him as a value. I will take him,
Speaker 1: but I have to acknowledge that there is the range
Speaker 1: of outcomes. Is our good friend Derek Brown likes to say,
Speaker 1: where Hoskins doesn't exactly look great for the first half
Speaker 1: of the season or maybe the entire season, is he's
Speaker 1: trying to work his way back. I mean, it's just
Speaker 1: one of those things you have to understand. Who made
Speaker 1: the first base team for you in all bust team.
Speaker 3: That's actually really interesting that last thing that you said
Speaker 3: that the possibility and this is something I think that
Speaker 3: should be accounted for with talking about bus is a
Speaker 3: player in the grand scope of a season can end
Speaker 3: up like kind of returning their value. But when a
Speaker 3: guy is a dud for half of a year and
Speaker 3: they're killing your team and maybe you're in consideration to
Speaker 3: cutting them or you possibly do, and then they bounce back,
Speaker 3: I don't give them. I don't give them the extra
Speaker 3: credit because they return that value. To your point, with
Speaker 3: Reice Hoskins, mine is kind of the same thing. And
Speaker 3: I'm gonna do the most anti Homer thing ever, and
Speaker 3: I'm gonna pick on a diamondback old Christian Walker. Christian
Speaker 3: Walker as my bust here who really suffered in the
Speaker 3: back half of the year. Hitting two zero five in
Speaker 3: the final month of the season, then took that struggle
Speaker 3: bus into the playoffs and killed I mean Barre. The
Speaker 3: Diamonbacks were able to like push past his struggles. He
Speaker 3: did nothing to help outside of a double in the
Speaker 3: World Series. I'm worried he's going to take that in
Speaker 3: and we're going to have another struggle in the first
Speaker 3: half here. His hard hit percentage ended up dropping, launch
Speaker 3: angle was going down, expected batting average was lower. Yet
Speaker 3: we're paying the highest cost of Christian Walker ever. He's
Speaker 3: going off at seventy two in the rank, seventy seven
Speaker 3: and adp as the eight first, eighth first baseman. He's
Speaker 3: right in the same general vicinity as Paul Goldschmidt and
Speaker 3: Cody Bellinger and guys behind him. We're going to talk
Speaker 3: about another episode. I love Tristan Cossas. I think Spencer Torkelsen,
Speaker 3: outside of ballpark factors, is a player that is ninety
Speaker 3: to ninety five percent of Christian Walker Walker. The advantage
Speaker 3: he has is he has hit for some higher batting
Speaker 3: average and put up monster RBI numbers last year. I'm
Speaker 3: not sure that that is going to continue, and I'm
Speaker 3: worried the struggles from last year are going to carry
Speaker 3: over a little bit. There's a little bit of injury
Speaker 3: stuff already in spring. I'm gonna bust Christian Walker, especially
Speaker 3: at that cost, because that advantage has gone where you
Speaker 3: draft him at one point fifty and you get the
Speaker 3: return of a seventy five overall player. He has to
Speaker 3: perform at the level from last season, I think, to
Speaker 3: return the value. So we will bust the diamond about
Speaker 3: Christian Walker.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I feel like that's kind of a clump there.
Speaker 1: Once you get past Jones and gold Schmith, Walker, Cassas Steer,
Speaker 1: we'll talk about him coming up to you. But I
Speaker 1: feel like that that's the big drop off after gold Schmith.
Speaker 1: That's why I always like gold Shmith too, because I
Speaker 1: feel like this guy they really feel pretty steady about.
Speaker 1: Still a guy you don't feel steady about at second base.
Speaker 2: It's the same guy.
Speaker 1: That I don't. It's Nico Horner. You've been riding this
Speaker 1: train into the ground for or pretty much all of
Speaker 1: pre draft season here into draft season. So Wels, I'll
Speaker 1: let you start first year.
Speaker 2: When it comes to Nico.
Speaker 3: When I saw you had him on here, I was like,
Speaker 3: we're going together we're gonna we're holding hands into the sunset.
Speaker 3: On bust and Nico Horner. It is not that Nico
Speaker 3: Horner is a bad player. Ninety eight runs is phenomenal.
Speaker 3: He's actually kind of turning into like the Brandon Nimo
Speaker 3: of that middle infield. And he stole a ton of bases.
Speaker 3: But his value, I think is heavily heavily weighted based
Speaker 3: on his costs on those stolen bases. I will admit
Speaker 3: he is a three category player. He's a nothing burger
Speaker 3: on the other two single digit homers RBI's I guess
Speaker 3: nothing to throw away at sixty eight is still like service.
Speaker 2: That's because of lineup placement.
Speaker 1: But again, lineup placement is why my whole thing was
Speaker 1: six hundred and eighty eight played appearances last year. You know,
Speaker 1: like the volume is king right, So if for any
Speaker 1: reason he doesn't recreate that volume, you have to be
Speaker 1: worried he doesn't recreate that productivity.
Speaker 3: And it's fifty eight overall, fifty eight overall on ADP,
Speaker 3: and I think that cost is built in simply on
Speaker 3: the stolen bases. Projections don't like or repeat. They're about
Speaker 3: ten to twelve less across the board. I also don't
Speaker 3: like him to go over forty and because stolen bases
Speaker 3: are just more plentiful and you can get Bryson Stott,
Speaker 3: in my mind, is like a Nico Horner light that's
Speaker 3: a player Andres Jimenez is the true Nico Horner light.
Speaker 3: I can get Andres Jmenez outside the top one hundred,
Speaker 3: get more homers. I think I can get within eighty
Speaker 3: five percent on stolen bases. Average is probably the same.
Speaker 3: Maybe I sacrifice the little runs blah blah blah, but
Speaker 3: I'm saying, like ninety percent ish of Nico Horner fifty
Speaker 3: to sixty spots later, that's what I'm gonna do. I'm busted,
Speaker 3: Nico Horner. I know you're there with me.
Speaker 2: I am.
Speaker 1: It is also really for me the ADP in which
Speaker 1: he's going I just think it's a little too high.
Speaker 1: He's going ahead right now consensus ADP on Fantasy Bros.
Speaker 1: Of Paul Goldschmith, ahead of Nolan Jones, ahead of Royce Lewis,
Speaker 1: which is a player that I think is a five
Speaker 1: category player.
Speaker 2: So I don't I don't get this at all.
Speaker 1: I understand that it's a big number of stolen bases
Speaker 1: I get that, but to your point earlier Welsh, it's
Speaker 1: easier to find steals later in the draft too, So
Speaker 1: why am I paying almost, you know, a premium basically
Speaker 1: for a guy who is, as you pointed out, and
Speaker 1: I think it's very true, a three category player at best.
Speaker 1: I don't see the power developing for Nico Horner. I
Speaker 1: like the player, I just don't like the ADP. Now
Speaker 1: what I take Nico Horner if he was going closer
Speaker 1: to seventy five ninety range, yes, but in the top
Speaker 1: fifty ish, I just think it's.
Speaker 3: No where he's closer to Andres Jimenez you would take
Speaker 3: it right. I will say, you know, one of the
Speaker 3: battles here in great episode we did with Ario Cohen
Speaker 3: if you want to hear about ATC projections on the
Speaker 3: YouTube channel. In the podcast is like Ariol admitted that
Speaker 3: like the guys that pop in the system are batting average,
Speaker 3: and Ariol believes that runs are like a bigger fantasy
Speaker 3: correlation right now, and that is something that Nico does
Speaker 3: a pretty decent job of on both fronts. Like a
Speaker 3: high batting average two eighty plus and he almost scored
Speaker 3: one hundred runs. Those are going to value higher. So
Speaker 3: I think that is part of why, like you're auction
Speaker 3: calculators are going to value him a little bit above.
Speaker 3: But I think the depleted homers like I'm chasing power
Speaker 3: even more in drafts this year. Yeah, and he's a
Speaker 3: nothing on this and stolen bases, I don't feel the
Speaker 3: same weight of I mean, forty is incredible, but like
Speaker 3: I have to get forty, you don't. I mean, you
Speaker 3: can literally save your stolen base projections with Estory Ruiz
Speaker 3: a little bit later while you've sprinkled in ten to
Speaker 3: fifteen across the board. It's not to be totally dismissive
Speaker 3: of Nico Horner. There is value runs in average are
Speaker 3: hard to find on the wire and everything, but the
Speaker 3: cost is.
Speaker 2: Just really high. I can't do it, Walsh.
Speaker 1: Not if Nolan Jroones is on the board, a guy
Speaker 1: who get it relatively in the same range of average,
Speaker 1: a guy who can have thirty thirty potentially. I mean,
Speaker 1: there's just no way. I'm just not doing it. Third
Speaker 1: base here for my All Bus team. This is a
Speaker 1: player that I was really in on last year. He's
Speaker 1: probably All Sleeper Team last year. I have to go
Speaker 1: back and watch. But as Josh Young of the Texas Rangers.
Speaker 1: I like Josh Young. Again, this is not like me
Speaker 1: turning on Josh Young. You look at the counting stats
Speaker 1: at the end of the year, you go, hey, this
Speaker 1: is a really good season. He was in the early
Speaker 1: discussion for Rookie of the Year last year. Is a
Speaker 1: very strong season. Twenty three homers, seventy RBI, seventy five runs.
Speaker 1: He did miss some time there last year. But some
Speaker 1: other deeper issues there with Josh Young. The first one
Speaker 1: that I want to bring up is against right handed pitching,
Speaker 1: just two forty seven. That's a problem for me. You're
Speaker 1: gonna face more right handed pitching in the American League.
Speaker 1: Two ninety nine OBP, a four to nineteen slugging, seven
Speaker 1: eighteen ops against righty's. That's not good enough. That is
Speaker 1: a red flag to me. Also a red flag second
Speaker 1: half of the year.
Speaker 2: Now, I am.
Speaker 1: Counting into the fact that health was part of it,
Speaker 1: But at the same time, Welsh over his final thirty
Speaker 1: four games in the second half, he hit just two
Speaker 1: twenty nine with a two to seventy one OBP and
Speaker 1: a three to sixty six slugging. That reeks to me
Speaker 1: of a guy where maybe the league was starting to
Speaker 1: catch up to him figure out his weaknesses. Can Josh
Speaker 1: Young bounce back from that and adjust, Of course he can,
Speaker 1: But at the same time you have to count into
Speaker 1: all of those other things that I just brought up
Speaker 1: there where there's a potential also for him to bust.
Speaker 1: So once again, i'd rather have Royce Lewis, who I
Speaker 1: don't think is going to be a bust. I think
Speaker 1: is going to be great players of this year. I'm
Speaker 1: looking at nuelve Marte, who's cheaper. I think there's other
Speaker 1: ways if you're gonna look for a corner guy or
Speaker 1: a low end third baseman that there's other places I'd
Speaker 1: like to go that I think are a little bit steadier.
Speaker 2: Potentially than Josh Young.
Speaker 1: Welsh who made your third base list here for the
Speaker 1: All Bust Potential team in twenty twenty four, and.
Speaker 3: I feel like this guy's kind of a darling and
Speaker 3: he qualifies at so many positions. This was the player
Speaker 3: that I decided on because but I would do want
Speaker 3: to point out Josh Young and like November, this was
Speaker 3: my pick for this. The problem is he's just falling
Speaker 3: so far. The injuries are falling like he's so cheap
Speaker 3: now that now you're getting get and he's doing with the.
Speaker 1: Cash war too, So it's not like it's not like
Speaker 1: that doesn't linger potentially either, And so that doesn't make
Speaker 1: me feel warm and fuzzy either. So this is more
Speaker 1: about all those deep numbers than it is about the injury.
Speaker 1: But we can't take that out of the equation too,
Speaker 1: because he's had a lot of injury issues in the
Speaker 1: last three years of his career.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and taking guys like that are already in going
Speaker 3: into the season, yeah, is a really dicey thing, Like
Speaker 3: you gotta be really careful about those players like Corey
Speaker 3: Seger is one that I'm comfortable with, but there's not
Speaker 3: a lot of others. Oh so okay, So the guy
Speaker 3: that I picked qualifies at multiple positions, kind of a darling,
Speaker 3: but the cost is just a little too high for me.
Speaker 3: And I picked Spencer Steer, who is technically twelfth that
Speaker 3: third base. He's a top one hundred player you know
Speaker 3: in deeper leagues. That position eligibility is a big positive.
Speaker 3: But I just I'm worried about the position flexibility of
Speaker 3: this roster because they've got so many great players that
Speaker 3: they're trying to find spots for Ellie Noelvie, Christian and
Speaker 3: Carnelcio and Strand and Candelario has been slammed in the
Speaker 3: middle of that as a lockdown starter every single day.
Speaker 3: Not to mention, you've got Frehley, You've got Freedol, you've
Speaker 3: got Will Benson. There's so many players in there that
Speaker 3: they didn't make a commitment to Spencer Steer not being
Speaker 3: the guy. But I do feel like we're only a
Speaker 3: couple of hot starts from players to push him off.
Speaker 3: So not a huge, huge home run threat. Twenty homers
Speaker 3: last year, stole a bunch of bases, but eight of
Speaker 3: his stolen bases came in one month. That's eight of
Speaker 3: fifteen stolen bases came in June of last year. If
Speaker 3: opportunities are waning a little bit, this is not a
Speaker 3: massively big stolen based guy. So if you're paying a
Speaker 3: top one hundred cost and he can't meet that home
Speaker 3: run threshold, and he can't meet that stolen based threshold,
Speaker 3: I feel like a lot has to work in his
Speaker 3: favor for him to be able to return the value
Speaker 3: where it's inside the top one hundred. And I'm just
Speaker 3: not quite there with with Spencer Steer. I'd also say
Speaker 3: his expected batting average twenty spots lower than his actual
Speaker 3: batting average expected slug almost sixty points slower four sixty
Speaker 3: four to four h nine. Just I can't pay the
Speaker 3: top one hundred price. And this is the guy that
Speaker 3: I'm going to be picking on.
Speaker 1: I understand. And the squeeze is my big concern too.
Speaker 1: You mentioned that, Look, they've got so much young talent
Speaker 1: there strand Dela Cruz Marte, like, you know, not to
Speaker 1: mention Matt McLain, like.
Speaker 3: I mean, there's only so many India is still sitting
Speaker 3: out there, to.
Speaker 2: India is still there.
Speaker 1: I feel like he's gonna get deltough do you I
Speaker 1: feel like that?
Speaker 3: I mean, I've been thinking that was going to happen
Speaker 3: for three months and it still hasn't happened. But that's
Speaker 3: the craziest thing is India can be traded and it
Speaker 3: still doesn't actually really fix this crazy big glut of players.
Speaker 3: So like, what did Spincer Stereer? Just real quick and
Speaker 3: we'll move on from it. Spencer Steer six hundred and
Speaker 3: sixty five played appearances last year and one hundred and
Speaker 3: fifty six games. I think it's going to be tough
Speaker 3: for him to be able to reach that marker again.
Speaker 3: By the way, every projection one hundred played appearance less,
Speaker 3: so I think it's going to be a tough task
Speaker 3: for him to repeat what he did last year, and
Speaker 3: we're kind of paying this year for what he did
Speaker 3: last year.
Speaker 1: It would take an injury, I think, for him to
Speaker 1: get back to that number. But it's also tough because
Speaker 1: there's a player who was really useful off the waiver
Speaker 1: wire for a lot of people. They have a lot
Speaker 1: of good feelings about him, so they want to reinvest.
Speaker 1: I totally get that. But the calculus is changed for
Speaker 1: the Reds in twenty twenty four, and I think that's
Speaker 1: something you have to take into account of that equation.
Speaker 1: See all that math, metaphor just throughout there's a lot
Speaker 1: of math. All right, Let's get to the next position
Speaker 1: here on our list. It is shortstop and this is
Speaker 1: a player Welsh that you selected that I gotta tell you,
Speaker 1: I haven't been drafting a lot of and I'm curious
Speaker 1: to hear your take on why you put them on
Speaker 1: the bus team, because the more I continue to research,
Speaker 1: the more.
Speaker 2: I continue to look.
Speaker 1: I feel like I need to be kinder to this player,
Speaker 1: But maybe you see things differently when it comes to
Speaker 1: Hasi on Kim.
Speaker 3: So there's a couple of players I've kind of identified
Speaker 3: that they don't have great hitting metrics but made every
Speaker 3: ounce of their bat work and put C. J. Abrams
Speaker 3: is one of those players. Like really poor barreling, not
Speaker 3: great hard hit numbers, but launch angle, you know, pulled launch,
Speaker 3: pulled fly balls was what he was able to, you know,
Speaker 3: make work. Hassan Kim was kind of the same way.
Speaker 3: Hassan Kim had one of the lowest barrel I actually
Speaker 3: think he had, like the heart the bottom three worst
Speaker 3: hard hit rate in all of bagall last year of
Speaker 3: qualified hitters. It was a twenty six point two percent
Speaker 3: that was seven percent lower than the previous year. But
Speaker 3: he had a thirteen almost fourteen degree launch angle. But
Speaker 3: those are paired with bad barreling that you got the
Speaker 3: bad hard hit, you've actually got a negative expected batting average.
Speaker 3: He hit two sixty, but it was two forty three
Speaker 3: and his average EV was eighty six miles per hour.
Speaker 3: Those are atrocious with an above average launch angle in
Speaker 3: a bad hitting park. So what did he do absolutely
Speaker 3: maximized to the umnth degree to get seventeen homers to me,
Speaker 3: and it could blow up in my face. I don't
Speaker 3: think that's sustainable, and I don't think that's going to continue,
Speaker 3: and projections kind of agree. The stolen bases, I also don't.
Speaker 3: I will say this, I think he stole like at
Speaker 3: least three bases in every single month of the year.
Speaker 3: So he could be a fifteen thirty guy and that
Speaker 3: could end up working out. But his ADP is right
Speaker 3: around eighty five and it's going a little bit higher
Speaker 3: in a lot of other places. I have not drafted
Speaker 3: him in, I think a single league, and I really
Speaker 3: worried that the bat is going to take a regression
Speaker 3: point where it's gonna be tough to get to thirty
Speaker 3: stolen bases, it's gonna be tough to get to fifteen homers.
Speaker 3: And if that's happening, he's also not going to hit
Speaker 3: high in the lineup. I got like Jackson Merril could
Speaker 3: take over high points in the lineup. So I'm fading
Speaker 3: and busting Hassan Kim.
Speaker 1: All right, my shortstop might surprise you again. This is
Speaker 1: guy a little lower on the trough right now, he's
Speaker 1: currently in a consensus ADP of two twelve, but I
Speaker 1: think that's gonna change in the next couple weeks significantly.
Speaker 1: And it's Trevor's story of the Boston Red Sox. And
Speaker 1: this is more of a cautionary tale for everybody out
Speaker 1: here too, because I don't think he's going to be
Speaker 1: a post two hundred and EIGHTYP guy when we get
Speaker 1: to two weeks from now, when people are drafting right
Speaker 1: before the season, I think already you're seeing all the
Speaker 1: positive things in the spring. He's in great shape, he
Speaker 1: looks healthy, he looks like his old self, and I
Speaker 1: think you're already seeing these injuries to other players that
Speaker 1: are ahead of him in ADP where he is going
Speaker 1: to continue to chug up, up, up up up. I
Speaker 1: would not shock me if he broke the one seventy
Speaker 1: five mark Welsh by the time he got closer he
Speaker 1: becomes one of these people we look at, go well,
Speaker 1: he's an infielder with you know, power and speed. We
Speaker 1: could suffer the two thirty batting average. Okay, fine, but
Speaker 1: I just want to remind everybody who Trevor Story is,
Speaker 1: and Trevor Story is a player that you are going
Speaker 1: to suffer batting average. You are going to suffer the
Speaker 1: fact that he is not in Colorado. Boston's not the
Speaker 1: same place for him. You look at the home road splits.
Speaker 1: I mean, it's just we know who Trevor Story is.
Speaker 1: I continue to be perplexed of what the Red Sox
Speaker 1: have done the last few years, getting rid of Mooky Bets,
Speaker 1: letting Xander Bogarts walk, and then paying guys like Trevor Story.
Speaker 2: I don't get it, and.
Speaker 1: I don't get and I want to warn against the
Speaker 1: rising adp of Trevor Story, because I do think it's
Speaker 1: going to rise the familiarity factor, the member berries of
Speaker 1: Trevor's story being once upon a time in Colorado. Hey, member,
Speaker 1: when Chevis's story with thirty thirty, I membt that's what's
Speaker 1: gonna happen here, you know, and I know it. Do
Speaker 1: you think I'm wrong? Do you think that's good? I mean,
Speaker 1: because I feel like that's where we're starting to head
Speaker 1: of is oh. I remember this guy used to, you know,
Speaker 1: steal twenty five bags and hit thirty homers, And I
Speaker 1: think you're chasing something that just isn't going to exist
Speaker 1: at the age thirty one season for Trevor story again.
Speaker 3: My only problem that this is Reeze Hoskins all over again.
Speaker 3: I kind of like Trevor's story, like, here's something I
Speaker 3: learned from last year. Here's one thing I really screwed up.
Speaker 3: So remember that article where I'm like, oh, I was amazing.
Speaker 3: I was the best in all of my fades and whatnot.
Speaker 3: I loled it myself when I looked at my first
Speaker 3: base targets and my number two was jose A bray You.
Speaker 3: And last year something I was very about was like, hey, listen,
Speaker 3: I think I can skip and fade these high end
Speaker 3: first base and blah blah blah because I can get
Speaker 3: this guy a little bit later. I want to move
Speaker 3: off that approach. If I was being like, hey, I
Speaker 3: can fade some of these shortstops because I can get
Speaker 3: Trevor's story later, he could be my starter, and I
Speaker 3: think he can be a top seven shortstop. I think
Speaker 3: that's a recipe.
Speaker 1: He could also be your version of twenty twenty four,
Speaker 1: jose A bra You of twenty twenty three.
Speaker 3: That's what I'm saying.
Speaker 2: Same logic.
Speaker 1: That thing I'm trying to warn everybody of is like, hey,
Speaker 1: jose A Bray was great once upon a time. But
Speaker 1: when a player starts to decline, no matter what, sometimes
Speaker 1: you know, new circumstances don't always fit. The other thing, too,
Speaker 1: is well you talked about you know that range. Here's
Speaker 1: some of the names in that range. Logan o'happy, I
Speaker 1: want to draft him, Shotto Imanaga, I want to draft him.
Speaker 1: I like Jaron Durant, I like Brian Wu, I like
Speaker 1: Ezekiel Tovar, I like Lars Neubar, Junior Kaminarol. I am
Speaker 1: running love letters too on a daily basis. Brandon Fott,
Speaker 1: Jung Holy, all of which are going in this ranger
Speaker 1: of Trevor story. That's my big problem is I think
Speaker 1: those are all players that I personally want to be
Speaker 1: in the business of. Or is Trevor story The downside,
Speaker 1: I just think is bigger and people realize, let's move
Speaker 1: on to the outfield. Give me a couple outfielders that
Speaker 1: you're concerned with. One of them is one of my
Speaker 1: favorite guys. So I'm gonna fight you on the first one.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I've kind of talked about it a decent amount.
Speaker 3: I hate the adp of Nolan Jones and it's gonna
Speaker 3: be a pitchforks and people coming after me and trying
Speaker 3: to send me to the town square. I get it
Speaker 3: because everybody loves Nolan Jones. But the cost is I mean,
Speaker 3: it is peak, peak peak. It is fifty nine off
Speaker 3: of what he did last year, which was great in
Speaker 3: so many instances. He second half, the second half he
Speaker 3: hit three to zho one. Two things that kind of
Speaker 3: stand out to me based on the cost. He had
Speaker 3: a skyrocketing babbit of over four hundred, and that is
Speaker 3: not sustainable. And that also is a regression batting average.
Speaker 3: That's a candidate. That's the candidate for batting average regression,
Speaker 3: like without question. Another thing I talked about Spencer Steer
Speaker 3: stealing half of his stolen bases in one month. Well,
Speaker 3: the September October, Nolan Jones twelve of his what was
Speaker 3: it twenty stolen bases came in one month. So that
Speaker 3: has me worried over fifty points of batting average regression
Speaker 3: implied to his expected batting average. He hit two ninety
Speaker 3: seven two forty seven expected batting average. So I take
Speaker 3: sky rocketing babbit numbers expected numbers that look lower from
Speaker 3: a batting average standpoint, and stolen bases that might not
Speaker 3: be sustainable, and I go top fifty. He barrels, he
Speaker 3: hits the ball hard, he gets the ball in the air,
Speaker 3: and he's in Colorado. All are awesome, but I'm a
Speaker 3: little bit worried about a top fifty overall costs. We
Speaker 3: had this conversation about Bellinger versus Nolan Jones. Nolan Jones
Speaker 3: has better hitting metrics, but I think from a track
Speaker 3: record standpoint, even though I know it's been walky last
Speaker 3: couple of years, I think I feel better about the
Speaker 3: changes that Bellinger has made as a hitter. I'll take him.
Speaker 3: That's why I'm busting Nolan Jones. Did you want my
Speaker 3: other or we just.
Speaker 1: Well, I just want to the only thing I want
Speaker 1: to throw out in Nolan Jones' defense too, because a
Speaker 1: lot of people say, well, he plays in Colorado. Was
Speaker 1: he do on you know, on the road last year
Speaker 1: on the road to eighty eight three eighty obp five
Speaker 1: to fifty four, slugging on the road nine to thirty
Speaker 1: five ops. That's why I'm so in on Nolan Jones
Speaker 1: because he's not just a Colorado product. You're one hundred
Speaker 1: percent right that babbit cannot hold. We know it's gonna
Speaker 1: come down, but evens something in two sixty and still
Speaker 1: goes thirty twenty, I'll take that to the bank.
Speaker 2: And that's still good at eightyp.
Speaker 3: And that may be what happens, like and I kind of.
Speaker 1: That's still if I told you that's the top fifty player,
Speaker 1: you would agree, right.
Speaker 3: I think it's right there. But see, like I think
Speaker 3: like a high outcome has to be in play for
Speaker 3: him to return that value. He might be a twenty
Speaker 3: twenty guy again with more at bats this year, with
Speaker 3: that batting average regression. So I'm just throwing it out there.
Speaker 3: I just I don't love the If it's an OBP league,
Speaker 3: I take him. I just don't love the cost. My
Speaker 3: other one just wrote, QUEBP league, that's a good point too.
Speaker 2: You got is es there.
Speaker 3: My other one is Masataka Yoshita. I actually think he
Speaker 3: might be the third most valuable fantasy outfielder from the
Speaker 3: Red Sox, after Tyler O'Neil and after Jaron Duran And
Speaker 3: I throw this out. I even think there's a chance
Speaker 3: that Rafaela could be a guy that could overpower him.
Speaker 3: I love the batting average, but I don't like any
Speaker 3: of the hitting metrics. He doesn't steal enough, he doesn't
Speaker 3: hit enough homers. He hits at the top of the
Speaker 3: lineup that is going to score some good runs. So
Speaker 3: this might this is like two categories. But I'm not
Speaker 3: in to Yoshu Masataki Yoshida, especially one fifty three ADP
Speaker 3: thirty eighth of outfielders overall, and like I said, I
Speaker 3: think he might be the bottom tier of those Red
Speaker 3: Sox outfielders.
Speaker 2: All right.
Speaker 1: For me in the outfield, I got two names. The
Speaker 1: first one is Evan Carter, going at one oh three ADP.
Speaker 1: Right now, that's a consensus ADP. It's just too high
Speaker 1: for me. You see some of the other guys, you
Speaker 1: know we're gonna talk about, probably on the breakout teams.
Speaker 1: I would imagine the Cheerios, the Caminaros, the White Langfords.
Speaker 1: Evan Carter, I understand it was fun, you know, you
Speaker 1: got to play the postseason, big exposure level.
Speaker 2: But he has only played eight games.
Speaker 1: He only is thirty nine at bats over actually thirty
Speaker 1: four at bats I should say at Triple A level.
Speaker 1: And when players make that jump from Double A to
Speaker 1: the big leagues sometimes it just it doesn't always work out.
Speaker 1: You know, for every Evan Longoria, there's a player that
Speaker 1: it does not work out for, probably threefold, if not five.
Speaker 2: So my other.
Speaker 1: Concern when I look at Evan Carter two is, and
Speaker 1: I keep bringing this up and all these shows, is
Speaker 1: the frame. He's a little slight. I feel like it's
Speaker 1: a long season of major league baseball. It's a lot
Speaker 1: of travel, it's a lot to deal with at the
Speaker 1: big league level. I could see it wearing on him
Speaker 1: a little bit. I look at the body type of
Speaker 1: some players who are young and coming into the league,
Speaker 1: like camon Arow, like White Langford, and I just think
Speaker 1: they're built differently, and I think that's to their advantage.
Speaker 1: So there's a lot of reason why I think he
Speaker 1: could be a bust at one oh three. I know
Speaker 1: people love Evan Carter. Again, I don't hate Evan Carter.
Speaker 1: I just don't like the price of Evan Carter this year.
Speaker 1: I think it's you want to talk about a guy
Speaker 1: who's priced that everything has to go right as a
Speaker 1: top one hundred player, basically, I think that's where his
Speaker 1: price is. And the other one is Jorge Solaire coming
Speaker 1: off a really good season last year, but I don't
Speaker 1: like the signing in San fran for him. It's not
Speaker 1: the best ballpark factor for him, it's not the best lineup.
Speaker 2: You know. As much as you know, we could all
Speaker 2: joke about.
Speaker 1: Marlins from time to time, you know, the Marlins were
Speaker 1: chippy last year, you know, And I think that now
Speaker 1: you'll look back and you see him going over here.
Speaker 1: I just feel like so Lair people are gonna try
Speaker 1: to chase, you know, last season.
Speaker 2: A little bit. I think they're gonna be disappointed again.
Speaker 1: The ADP at one fifty two is still fine if
Speaker 1: you're looking for power late in your draft, but I
Speaker 1: think you have to understand too, there's been a lot
Speaker 1: of up and down the career of Hore Solaire, and
Speaker 1: I think he's a tough player to gauge. So for
Speaker 1: those reasons, I think Carter and Solarra players that I
Speaker 1: think have bust potential in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 2: Welsh any comments about one or both of those guys.
Speaker 3: I mean, I kind of like es Solaire, I'm a
Speaker 3: little indifferent about Evan Carter. We had someone was like
Speaker 3: tweeting us about Evan Carter like I was actually defending
Speaker 3: I've kind of been shady on Evan Carter even after
Speaker 3: he hit his two bombs the other day, because I'm
Speaker 3: I question, like, what the impact.
Speaker 1: Springs are not going to impress me for That's not
Speaker 1: going to change my opinion of what I'm saying.
Speaker 3: People like that Ava Logan Gilbert, but he's still not
Speaker 3: like hitting, you know, extra base hits off a lefties.
Speaker 3: I think White Langford is the better of the Texas
Speaker 3: Rangers outfielders. I'm kind of okay about him, So Lair.
Speaker 3: The reason I like Solaire it's hard to find thirty
Speaker 3: five plus homers outside the top one twenty five or
Speaker 3: one fifty and you can get that there. You could
Speaker 3: argue ballpark factor as something that's going to worry you
Speaker 3: a little bit, but he's in a hit in the
Speaker 3: middle of that lineup, and I think thirty homers are
Speaker 3: a gimme and one fifty eighty piece. So of those players,
Speaker 3: I actually like Jorgees Solaire more than Carter, just kind
Speaker 3: of based off of like my draft acumen. But yeah,
Speaker 3: like Solaer, I kind of dig I no way I
Speaker 3: could bust him.
Speaker 1: Well, I think you took him in the last draft
Speaker 1: we did right, yeah, when I think and Bubba and look,
Speaker 1: I had him in my cue because I needed some power.
Speaker 2: So I get it.
Speaker 1: But I also have to understand too, for you know,
Speaker 1: the every two to fifty season he had last year.
Speaker 1: You know, you got to look at the two PHO
Speaker 1: seven that he had in twenty twenty two and the
Speaker 1: twenty twenty one or two to twenty three, so he
Speaker 1: could be a drain on batting average.
Speaker 2: He really hurts you in a lot of spots too.
Speaker 1: So I'm not chasing the forty home runs from twenty
Speaker 1: nineteen when it comes to Hora Slaram, just not going
Speaker 1: to do it.
Speaker 2: And last year was.
Speaker 1: A good season, but it was also a good season,
Speaker 1: you know, in a contract year and now, and you
Speaker 1: know sometimes you can't chase that either. Let's get to
Speaker 1: the pitchers here. Well, I'll start first with these and
Speaker 1: sure these are very simple for me. Blake Snell is
Speaker 1: number one for me. He's still going at an ADP
Speaker 1: of sixty three as of us recording this right now.
Speaker 2: He is still yet to sign. Right. I didn't miss
Speaker 2: anything in the last twenty minutes.
Speaker 1: Right, I don't think probably releases it will probably and
Speaker 1: you know what, it doesn't matter because I think it's
Speaker 1: already into march here and you're starting behind a little bit.
Speaker 1: There's a lot of rushing. It makes me a little uneasy,
Speaker 1: that's all I'm going to say. And we don't know
Speaker 1: where he's going to land yet, and I just don't
Speaker 1: think we're getting enough of a discount currently on that,
Speaker 1: because if you're looking at the other pictures going in
Speaker 1: that same range, Welsh, that's my big concern. It's I
Speaker 1: feel very comfortable with knowing, you know what I'm going
Speaker 1: to get out of Grayson Rodriguez, let's say, or Hazel's Lozardo.
Speaker 1: Those are pictures going in that same range. I'd rather
Speaker 1: take both of those guys than Blake Snell. Despite the
Speaker 1: fact that Snell's coming off of cy Young in a
Speaker 1: great season. Now it's like, not only does he have
Speaker 1: to follow it up, which we've already seen sometimes it
Speaker 1: doesn't happen with Blake Snell, but also the walk rate's
Speaker 1: still very high last year despite all the success.
Speaker 2: He doesn't have a home. He's gonna be working from behind.
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 1: I just feel like this is a big ask here
Speaker 1: at sixty three overall, and Kodai Singa is still being
Speaker 1: drafted at one O two.
Speaker 2: That's the other one for me.
Speaker 1: And maybe it's because I'm just a loser Mets fan
Speaker 1: at heart that can't get the negativity out of his brain.
Speaker 1: But there's no guarantee that this guy's back in May.
Speaker 1: There's no guarantee that he doesn't have another setback. There's
Speaker 1: no guarantee that the Mets rush him back because the
Speaker 1: Mets are gonna be competitive or have designs on being competitive.
Speaker 1: I think if you look at that roster, it is
Speaker 1: not a competitive team right now, especially in the rotation.
Speaker 1: So for me, Senga and Snell, their ADP has not
Speaker 1: fallen enough for me, and the bust potential is too
Speaker 1: large for the ADP on both of those guys. So
Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna be out on both Snell and Senga
Speaker 1: unless the ADP changes, or unless Blake Snell signs with
Speaker 1: the Yankees tomorrow or something like that, or some juggernaut
Speaker 1: team that I go, Okay, well you know what I'm
Speaker 1: back in now.
Speaker 3: I'll admit I've been kind of a Snell apologist, oh man,
Speaker 3: but I'm worried a little worried right now.
Speaker 2: I mean, why not it's the sixth of March as
Speaker 2: it's recording this.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it. I think it happens this week,
Speaker 3: but you know say it every since.
Speaker 2: Well we said two weeks ago, and last week and
Speaker 2: the week before that.
Speaker 3: The Sego one's ridiculous. Like I love Sanging before the injury.
Speaker 3: I'll tell you I've been doing a couple drafts. He
Speaker 3: just keeps falling one fifty two hundred, So I don't
Speaker 3: know who's still taking him if things haven't updated. But yeah,
Speaker 3: that's based off of ADP. That's silly.
Speaker 1: He's on a one from one two to one oh
Speaker 1: seven in the last twenty four hours.
Speaker 2: That's it in consensus.
Speaker 1: I mean, now, look, you're right, that's probably going to
Speaker 1: change in the next couple of weeks. That numbers gonna
Speaker 1: drop more. But as of right now, as of today,
Speaker 1: if that's where he is on the board, I'm out.
Speaker 3: Yeah, like him and Bradish are on my no draft
Speaker 3: list right now, we don't have enough information to invest,
Speaker 3: so absolutely no. Thanks the two guys I got on
Speaker 3: my list, We'll see. You might get poked at and
Speaker 3: prodd it a little bit if people get mad at
Speaker 3: me about it, but I'm not investing. I've not drafted
Speaker 3: these guys, I think, like really anywhere. So there's kind
Speaker 3: of a part of like they just don't fit my,
Speaker 3: you know, my mix of the pictures that I want.
Speaker 3: They're also around pictures that I like quite a bit
Speaker 3: more so they're pushed out on my ranks. Number one
Speaker 3: Logan Gilbert, who is eighteenth on SP's sixty five overall.
Speaker 3: I he's the least of the exciting Mariner pictures in
Speaker 3: the entire group. Lost a little bit of elo on
Speaker 3: the fastball of all the pitches as well. The expected
Speaker 3: slugging numbers I believe on I think every single pitch, Yeah,
Speaker 3: every single pitch I'm seeing here was higher than the
Speaker 3: year before. The expected slug so and the slug number.
Speaker 3: So that's just telling you he's getting hit harder and
Speaker 3: the potential still there is he's trying to revamp this
Speaker 3: pitch mix. He did lower his walk rate, which is
Speaker 3: Kirby esque, but his expected era numbers were right in
Speaker 3: line with this above three and a half number, and
Speaker 3: he's getting smacked hit hard, Like his fastball is getting
Speaker 3: hit hard. He gave up a one seventeen and a
Speaker 3: one eighteen the year before he's a good pitcher, I
Speaker 3: don't think he's exceptionally exciting. I do like low walk pitchers,
Speaker 3: but I don't think the strikeout upside is going to
Speaker 3: be there. I don't think the pitch mix is telling
Speaker 3: us anything super exciting. Maybe if he starts throwing something else,
Speaker 3: we'll get there, but I think what it is is
Speaker 3: he's masking his fastball, and I just don't think we're
Speaker 3: going to get anywhere. We're paying like a top twenty
Speaker 3: s but I don't think he That's another thing. I
Speaker 3: don't think he has the upside to be a top
Speaker 3: ten SP. And there's just a hand full of guys
Speaker 3: from fifteen to thirty that I think do. So that
Speaker 3: gets me out on him and the other one, this
Speaker 3: might be another one that people don't like, but is
Speaker 3: Hazius Lozardo, who is SP twenty three. He's seventy six
Speaker 3: on the overall ADP. And this kind of comes back
Speaker 3: to similar things with Gilbert in that I think Lozardo
Speaker 3: has been kind of this like heavy. He moved his
Speaker 3: pitch mix heavily into the fastball last year, and I
Speaker 3: don't think that's doing him any favors or any big
Speaker 3: wonder he got hit two sixty eight expected batting average
Speaker 3: against where the year before it was two twenty five.
Speaker 3: He also not doing well as far as splits go
Speaker 3: versus lefties. He had a sub one whip, but it
Speaker 3: was a one to three to one whip against righty,
Speaker 3: so he has not figured out how to get Righty's out.
Speaker 3: And I just like he's always a good strikeout option,
Speaker 3: but I think he's expected I got to go back
Speaker 3: and look because I went away from it. His expected
Speaker 3: era was almost four. It was three nine six this
Speaker 3: past year. And his expected era has sat relatively with
Speaker 3: his era most of his career, but this is almost
Speaker 3: a full run above. He's getting hit harder. He got
Speaker 3: barreled almost ten percent of the time. I just like,
Speaker 3: I think he's a better strikeout option than Gilbert, and
Speaker 3: he's cheaper. I actually like Lizardo over Gilbert. Both of
Speaker 3: these guys are pictures. I'm fading and I will put
Speaker 3: on my bus list.
Speaker 1: You know, Lozardo did fade in the second half. I
Speaker 1: want to equate that to workload more than anything for him.
Speaker 1: I mean, one hundred and seventy nineythings. That's just high
Speaker 1: in the Major leagues. The other thing, too, is the
Speaker 1: splits at home last year for Lozardo three ZHO seven
Speaker 1: e RA away four point four to eight. That's a
Speaker 1: big difference, So a little bit more consistency on the
Speaker 1: road I'd like to see out of Lozardo.
Speaker 2: I still like him more than you, but I understand
Speaker 2: all the points you made.
Speaker 1: When it comes to closer, the guy that made of
Speaker 1: my list is at one sixty seven. It's Kenley Jansen.
Speaker 1: It's a combination of age but also injury. He was
Speaker 1: dealing with a lat injury in February. They shut him down.
Speaker 1: Now he's back to throwing this week apparently, so we'll
Speaker 1: see how that goes. But lot injuries can be tricky.
Speaker 1: We've seen that before. And also a guy that's been
Speaker 1: around for quite some time. The ERA was up a
Speaker 1: little bit last year three six three, a little higher.
Speaker 1: Strikeout rate is down a little bit. You know, there's
Speaker 1: a player that's been around the block more than one.
Speaker 1: So it's not that Kelly Jansen can't be good. But
Speaker 1: if I'm looking for a potential bust at closer, I
Speaker 1: think Kenley Jansen could be one of those guys that
Speaker 1: you circle and say I'm a little concerned about him
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four, Welsh, is there a closer that
Speaker 1: for you have concerns with coming into the season?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 3: Mine, just like Ryan Helsley, don't. I don't like this.
Speaker 3: I don't do this. He's had a lot of injury
Speaker 3: issues and the Cardinals continuously seem comfortable like grabing other guys.
Speaker 3: We would see Gegos get it. I mean, Hicks isn't
Speaker 3: there anymore. But I don't feel that the ground is
Speaker 3: solid under Hellsley. Plus you've got some injury stuff, plus
Speaker 3: you know how bad that first half of last year is.
Speaker 3: I think the leash would be very short on Helsey
Speaker 3: if he were to be to be screwing around early
Speaker 3: in the year, because they do have guys like you know,
Speaker 3: they like to go to Diego's. So I don't feel comfortable.
Speaker 3: I do not draft Hellsley. I push him down, gimme Fairbanks,
Speaker 3: give me quite a few other closers over him. So
Speaker 3: he's my bus closer. Who I believe he is fifteenth
Speaker 3: I wrote it down at fifteenth with a one eighteen ADP.
Speaker 3: Absolutely no, thank you.
Speaker 1: All right, So Welsh's all bus team. William contreras a catcher,
Speaker 1: Christian Walker first, Nico Horner at tewod, Spencer Steer at third,
Speaker 1: has Young Kim at short, Nolan Jones and Masatake Yoshita
Speaker 1: in the outfield that he got Logan Gilbert Hajesus Lozardo
Speaker 1: and Ryan Helsley for me, jt Realmuto over at catcher,
Speaker 1: Rhese Hoskins, Nico Horner as well so same Zy's Welsh,
Speaker 1: Josh Young, Trevor Story, Evan Carter, Jorge Hilaire, Blake Snell,
Speaker 1: Coodei Singa and ken Lee Jansen. But of course we
Speaker 1: want to hear from you. Drop your comments below in
Speaker 1: the YouTube channel. Tell us who your big busts are
Speaker 1: of twenty twenty four, and you just might win yourself
Speaker 1: a Fantasy Baseball Championship Belt, the Ultimate belt from Trophy
Speaker 1: Smack for your league this year. You can keep it
Speaker 1: for yourself or you can give it away to somebody
Speaker 1: wins your league gets up to you, depending on how
Speaker 1: you feel how philanthropic you might be. Again, you can't
Speaker 1: be in the contest if you don't subscribe to the
Speaker 1: Fancy Pros MLB channel. Drop your comments below and don't
Speaker 1: forget to ring that bend notifications so you know every
Speaker 1: time a piece of content drops here on the channel
Speaker 1: before you know it. Leading Off Live will be here
Speaker 1: every single day. And don't forget run your mock drafts
Speaker 1: over at draft Wizard Fanacybros dot Com slash mock. Also,
Speaker 1: the draftkit is live, it's free, it's there for you.
Speaker 1: And of course, as Welsh as talking about, you can
Speaker 1: use some of these cheat sheets and all these insights
Speaker 1: and all the strategies. Welsh and I are putting out
Speaker 1: content as is our entire fantasy baseball team over at
Speaker 1: Fantasypros dot com, so'll be sure to check all that
Speaker 1: out as well.
Speaker 2: That'll do it for us, but the story of the
Speaker 2: game goes on for the Welsh. I'm Joey P. We'll
Speaker 2: see you next time kids.
Speaker 3: Bye,