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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy

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Speaker 1: Baseball Podcast. Is Me Joe Pi Zapia, and today we're

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Speaker 1: gonna look on the other side of things. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: take a look at potential bust players. And it's not

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Speaker 1: that we hate the players. Sometimes we just hate the

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Speaker 1: adp although sometimes we might hate the players.

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Speaker 2: We'll see how the show goes.

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Speaker 1: Joining me is always my good pal of the Welsh

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Speaker 1: and of course it's all of you out there. If

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Speaker 1: you haven't already subscribed to the Fantasy Pros MLB page.

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Speaker 1: We're the fastest growing YouTube channel in the history of

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Speaker 1: the universe when it comes to baseball.

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Speaker 2: That's right. I don't have the data to back it up.

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Speaker 2: I just feel it in my bones.

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Speaker 1: But I want to thank everybody out there who's been

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Speaker 1: listening and watching to all the shows. And of course

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Speaker 1: we've been giving away free things for those people who

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Speaker 1: are subscribers of the channel. So speaking of givaway free stuff, Welsh,

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Speaker 1: you're ready to give away a Jazz Chisham jersey to somebody?

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Speaker 3: I am very ready. I love it. Do we have

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Speaker 3: a name?

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Speaker 2: We do?

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Speaker 1: And the winner of the autograph Jazz Chishom Miami, Marl

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Speaker 1: Jersey courtesy of Bettingpros dot Com. Is TJ Pascal. TJ Pascal,

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Speaker 1: you're the big winner. Hit us up over a customer

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Speaker 1: support at mailbag at Fantasypros dot com. That's mail bag

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Speaker 1: at Fantasypros dot com. Shoot us your mailing address, proof

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Speaker 1: of your subscription to Fantasy Pros MLB YouTube channel, and

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Speaker 1: we'll get that shipped out to you right away.

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Speaker 2: Again the winner, TJ. Pascal, Congrats buddy.

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Speaker 3: And tell your dad I love him. Tell your dad's Pedro,

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Speaker 3: I love him.

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Speaker 1: That's right. Pedro, huge fan, hilarious. By the way, he

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Speaker 1: was great on SNL last year. Just tremendous performance. If

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Speaker 1: you missed it, go back and rewatch it at a

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Speaker 1: national treasure. But you know what else is a treasure.

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Speaker 1: This new prize we're given away for those people who

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Speaker 1: are saying I want to be like TJ. Just subscribe

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Speaker 1: to the channel. Drop your comments below. Ring the belt

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Speaker 1: to Lick gos Ding because we're giving away trophy Smack's

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Speaker 1: Ultimate Fantasy Baseball Championship Belt.

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Speaker 2: That's right.

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Speaker 1: You know me a big wrestling guy, so I'm all

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Speaker 1: about the belt. So again to qualify, subscribe to Fancy

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Speaker 1: Pros MLB, drop your comments below.

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Speaker 2: That's it.

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Speaker 1: That's all you gotta do, and don't forget to ring

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Speaker 1: that bell and that trophy smack. Ultimate symbol of fantasy

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Speaker 1: baseball supremacy can be yours.

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Speaker 2: So blame your.

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Speaker 1: Prize then by ringing that bell for notifications, Welsh, Let's

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Speaker 1: start with the All Bus team. And as I said

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Speaker 1: before going into the show, obviously this is the time

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Speaker 1: of year where you know, we're trying to evaluate the

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Speaker 1: talent and the talent most importantly in that consensus rankings,

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Speaker 1: in the consensus ADP, both of which you can find

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Speaker 1: over at Fantasypros dot com. That's available for you any

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Speaker 1: time over there. But to me, Welsh, when you're looking

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Speaker 1: at Bus, it's also you know, taking the player most importantly,

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Speaker 1: taking the circumstance in which the players in in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty four, I think that is the most important thing.

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Speaker 1: How do you identify Bus typically as well when you're

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Speaker 1: looking at trying to avoid it. And I'm not saying

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Speaker 1: you're avoiding all these players because maybe it's one or

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Speaker 1: two you're willing to take that risk on anyway.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's tough because I'm not as black and

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Speaker 3: white as a lot of other people. A lot of

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Speaker 3: people will be like this guy sucks, you can never

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Speaker 3: blah blah blah, or this is the best player. I

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Speaker 3: do live in gray areas, I think. And this is

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Speaker 3: going to come back to the answer. It's kind of

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Speaker 3: sometimes about cost, like sometimes production is just going to

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Speaker 3: completely fail, you know. Funny enough, a little pat on

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Speaker 3: my own back. I just put together that article we

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Speaker 3: it talked about in the last episode, the cheat sheet.

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Speaker 3: But I was looking at my cheat sheet from last year.

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Speaker 3: There's lots of stuff we all like don't get right,

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Speaker 3: and you look and you're like, oh, okay, this guy

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Speaker 3: kind of I was looking at like my favorite guys,

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Speaker 3: Corn Carroll, right, that's sure. Oh yeah, no, he was

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Speaker 3: my favorite guy by fourth round. But I was looking

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Speaker 3: and I'm leading this in. I looked at the guys

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Speaker 3: I was avoiding. I nailed that. I don't think I've

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Speaker 3: ever been more accurate then my avoid twenty twenty three list,

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Speaker 3: Dylan Cees, Alec Minoa. It was great, and it was

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Speaker 3: great in that, but so sometimes are players like Manoa

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Speaker 3: and cs. I just wanted no part of under any circumstance.

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Speaker 3: But are there players if their cost wasn't quite there

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Speaker 3: that I would draft? Yeah, sure, I can get into that.

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Speaker 3: So I think a lot of the bust can end

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Speaker 3: up becoming about that player being able to return the

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Speaker 3: value of where you're drafting a guy. So that's kind

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Speaker 3: of like my core piece to it, because yes, I

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Speaker 3: could sometimes draft some of these players, but that's a

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Speaker 3: lot of my attack here because you know these guys,

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Speaker 3: they can turn it around in a heartbeat. We're seeing

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Speaker 3: baseball change on a dime. With all the rules, anything

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Speaker 3: can happen. But a lot of my bust is going

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Speaker 3: to be based on boy, do I hate the costs

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Speaker 3: that I'm taking on these players and I don't think

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Speaker 3: they can return what you're investing in.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And for me it is again, I'm willing to

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Speaker 1: take chances on certain players here, but I also understand

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Speaker 1: that you have to understand that there's bust potential in

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Speaker 1: some of these names too, even though you might be

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Speaker 1: willing to draft them if they do fall around longer

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Speaker 1: than they should. And some players are going to be

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Speaker 1: some you know, high end players on this list that

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Speaker 1: we're going to talk about today, and some lower end

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Speaker 1: players too, because everybody thinks everybody's just a value just

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Speaker 1: because they're lower. Well, not necessarily. Sometimes that's a waste

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Speaker 1: of a pick too. So without further ado, let's get

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Speaker 1: to it. Let's talk about our all bust team for

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty four. Let's start a catcher. Welsh who made

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Speaker 1: the list for you?

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Speaker 3: Well, I could have put them all. I like yours

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Speaker 3: that you're about to say, I don't like hi end catcher,

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Speaker 3: so I'm probably going to identify top one hundred catcher,

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Speaker 3: and that's what I did. I'm picking on the fourth

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Speaker 3: catcher according to Fantasy Pro's consensus ranks ADP of seventy

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Speaker 3: four picking on William Contreras, who is a very popular

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Speaker 3: pick for a lot of people because of some of

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Speaker 3: the power potential. Yet last year, William Contrere's only seventeen

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Speaker 3: homers in one hundred and forty games rand a really

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Speaker 3: high batting average, except his expected batting average was almost

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Speaker 3: forty points lower. He also had a career low launch angle.

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Speaker 3: His expected slug was lower, well, on all the numbers,

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Speaker 3: lower lower though he hit the ball harder, So hitting

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Speaker 3: the ball harder is always going to give you that

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Speaker 3: baseline They did bring in Gary Sanchez, who I think

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Speaker 3: is going to be more of a primary DH, but

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Speaker 3: that is somebody for them to take Contreras out in

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Speaker 3: some instances. I'm just not in love with the idea

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Speaker 3: that Contreras is going to be some thirty home run

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Speaker 3: catcher like some believe he is. I think the batting

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Speaker 3: average could dip. He's not proved in other spots. We

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Speaker 3: saw what the one hundred and forty games are. Bottom line,

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Speaker 3: I don't like catchers in the top one hundred. I

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Speaker 3: think there's so much value later. So I am going

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Speaker 3: to bust William Contreras.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, high end catchers. I'm also out on so JT.

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Speaker 1: Real Muto was mine. I've talked about him in some

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Speaker 1: of the videos already on Fantasy Pros. But this is

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Speaker 1: a guy who's batting average fell last year. You know,

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Speaker 1: twenty points, the OBP fell, thirty points, the slugging percentage fell.

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Speaker 1: I mean, all these indicators are there, and the ops completely,

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Speaker 1: you know, almost sixty point difference year over a year,

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Speaker 1: and go from eight twenty to seven to sixty two. Look,

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Speaker 1: I understand he's still had twenty homers.

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Speaker 2: I understand he's still had sixteen stolen bases.

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Speaker 1: So I get from a roto perspective, especially in two

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Speaker 1: catcher leagues, if you'r a nut job was still playing

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Speaker 1: those that he has value, I get it, But I'm

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Speaker 1: also trying to factor in the age here. He's going

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Speaker 1: to be thirty three years old. We've seen guys like

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Speaker 1: Brian McCann right great catchers and fantasy for a long

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Speaker 1: period of time. Once they hit those early thirties, you

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Speaker 1: start to see that decline. I feel like you're starting

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Speaker 1: to see with Real Mutum. My concern Welsh is if

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Speaker 1: you continue to see it that he gets dropped in

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Speaker 1: the order, and if that happens, it could hurt all

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Speaker 1: of his counting stats too. So that basically why I

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Speaker 1: think Real Muto has bus potential.

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Speaker 2: In twenty twenty four, let's take.

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Speaker 1: A quick break in the action and tell you about

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Speaker 1: now back to the action. Speaking of phillies or ex phillies,

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Speaker 1: and I'll start with the first baseman here. Reese Hoskins

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Speaker 1: for me, is on this list. And I know he

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Speaker 1: might be saying, but he's so cheap. He's at one

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Speaker 1: eighty eight overall. Why do you think he's a bust.

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Speaker 1: I'm not saying he is a bust. I'm saying he

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Speaker 1: has bust potential and I want to harke him. Back

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Speaker 1: to Michael Conforto's twenty twenty three season where he hadn't

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Speaker 1: played for a whole year and he came back and

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Speaker 1: it just didn't go so well. And I understand that

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Speaker 1: Reese Hoskins is a slightly better player than Confordo, But

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Speaker 1: if you go back and look at Conforto, he had

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Speaker 1: some peaks there for the Mets once upon a time

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Speaker 1: a few years ago as a player that looks like

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Speaker 1: a thirty home run guy potentially in the league, and

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Speaker 1: then things.

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Speaker 2: Really didn't work out.

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Speaker 1: But Hoskins, although he's a better player, and I like

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Speaker 1: the ballpark factor more than where Confordo ultimately ended up.

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Speaker 2: I like Hoskins in Milwaukee. I took him in a

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Speaker 2: draft just this week.

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Speaker 1: At the same time, I have to recognize there is

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Speaker 1: a bust factor you have to be aware of when

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Speaker 1: it comes to Hoskins because he hasn't played an entire year.

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Speaker 1: You saw Trey Mancini be off for an entire year.

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Speaker 1: Obviously different circumstances, But at the same time, I think

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Speaker 1: you have to take that into account and realize, despite

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Speaker 1: the fact you're getting a huge discount race Hoskins, there

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Speaker 1: is that potential where either he doesn't hit the ground

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Speaker 1: running again, or it takes you know, a good few

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Speaker 1: months for him to really get back in a groove.

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Speaker 1: Do you think I'm crazy for calling Hoskins a potential bust?

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Speaker 3: I mean, I'm a Hoskins guy so like to but.

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Speaker 2: To recognize that it's possible, right, Yeah, I.

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Speaker 3: Think of the possibility. Is there my biggest argument, because

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Speaker 3: you know, the two bus elements are this guy's just

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Speaker 3: going to stink and he's going to be stank, or

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Speaker 3: this guy is not going to return the value. I

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Speaker 3: find it very hard because I believe Hoskins is going

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Speaker 3: to return to being a thirty home run hitter. I

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Speaker 3: find it really impossible that he's not going to be

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Speaker 3: able to return like a top one fifty EIGHTYP value.

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Speaker 3: So you're a little crazy in my brain, Joey, I

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Speaker 3: love Race Hoskins.

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Speaker 2: Well, I guess here is the thing.

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Speaker 1: If he ends up being a twenty home run guy,

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Speaker 1: I think it's a little disappointing just saying even at

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Speaker 1: one eighty eight, I think would be a little bit

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Speaker 1: of a disappointment for me personally because I'm like you,

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Speaker 1: I do see him as a value. I will take him,

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Speaker 1: but I have to acknowledge that there is the range

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Speaker 1: of outcomes. Is our good friend Derek Brown likes to say,

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Speaker 1: where Hoskins doesn't exactly look great for the first half

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Speaker 1: of the season or maybe the entire season, is he's

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Speaker 1: trying to work his way back. I mean, it's just

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Speaker 1: one of those things you have to understand. Who made

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Speaker 1: the first base team for you in all bust team.

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Speaker 3: That's actually really interesting that last thing that you said

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Speaker 3: that the possibility and this is something I think that

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Speaker 3: should be accounted for with talking about bus is a

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Speaker 3: player in the grand scope of a season can end

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Speaker 3: up like kind of returning their value. But when a

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Speaker 3: guy is a dud for half of a year and

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Speaker 3: they're killing your team and maybe you're in consideration to

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Speaker 3: cutting them or you possibly do, and then they bounce back,

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Speaker 3: I don't give them. I don't give them the extra

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Speaker 3: credit because they return that value. To your point, with

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Speaker 3: Reice Hoskins, mine is kind of the same thing. And

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna do the most anti Homer thing ever, and

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna pick on a diamondback old Christian Walker. Christian

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Speaker 3: Walker as my bust here who really suffered in the

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Speaker 3: back half of the year. Hitting two zero five in

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Speaker 3: the final month of the season, then took that struggle

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Speaker 3: bus into the playoffs and killed I mean Barre. The

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Speaker 3: Diamonbacks were able to like push past his struggles. He

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Speaker 3: did nothing to help outside of a double in the

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Speaker 3: World Series. I'm worried he's going to take that in

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Speaker 3: and we're going to have another struggle in the first

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Speaker 3: half here. His hard hit percentage ended up dropping, launch

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Speaker 3: angle was going down, expected batting average was lower. Yet

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Speaker 3: we're paying the highest cost of Christian Walker ever. He's

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Speaker 3: going off at seventy two in the rank, seventy seven

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Speaker 3: and adp as the eight first, eighth first baseman. He's

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Speaker 3: right in the same general vicinity as Paul Goldschmidt and

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Speaker 3: Cody Bellinger and guys behind him. We're going to talk

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Speaker 3: about another episode. I love Tristan Cossas. I think Spencer Torkelsen,

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Speaker 3: outside of ballpark factors, is a player that is ninety

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Speaker 3: to ninety five percent of Christian Walker Walker. The advantage

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Speaker 3: he has is he has hit for some higher batting

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Speaker 3: average and put up monster RBI numbers last year. I'm

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Speaker 3: not sure that that is going to continue, and I'm

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Speaker 3: worried the struggles from last year are going to carry

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Speaker 3: over a little bit. There's a little bit of injury

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Speaker 3: stuff already in spring. I'm gonna bust Christian Walker, especially

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Speaker 3: at that cost, because that advantage has gone where you

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Speaker 3: draft him at one point fifty and you get the

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Speaker 3: return of a seventy five overall player. He has to

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Speaker 3: perform at the level from last season, I think, to

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Speaker 3: return the value. So we will bust the diamond about

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Speaker 3: Christian Walker.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I feel like that's kind of a clump there.

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Speaker 1: Once you get past Jones and gold Schmith, Walker, Cassas Steer,

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Speaker 1: we'll talk about him coming up to you. But I

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Speaker 1: feel like that that's the big drop off after gold Schmith.

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Speaker 1: That's why I always like gold Shmith too, because I

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Speaker 1: feel like this guy they really feel pretty steady about.

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Speaker 1: Still a guy you don't feel steady about at second base.

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Speaker 2: It's the same guy.

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Speaker 1: That I don't. It's Nico Horner. You've been riding this

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Speaker 1: train into the ground for or pretty much all of

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Speaker 1: pre draft season here into draft season. So Wels, I'll

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Speaker 1: let you start first year.

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Speaker 2: When it comes to Nico.

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Speaker 3: When I saw you had him on here, I was like,

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Speaker 3: we're going together we're gonna we're holding hands into the sunset.

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Speaker 3: On bust and Nico Horner. It is not that Nico

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Speaker 3: Horner is a bad player. Ninety eight runs is phenomenal.

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Speaker 3: He's actually kind of turning into like the Brandon Nimo

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Speaker 3: of that middle infield. And he stole a ton of bases.

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Speaker 3: But his value, I think is heavily heavily weighted based

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Speaker 3: on his costs on those stolen bases. I will admit

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Speaker 3: he is a three category player. He's a nothing burger

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Speaker 3: on the other two single digit homers RBI's I guess

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Speaker 3: nothing to throw away at sixty eight is still like service.

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Speaker 2: That's because of lineup placement.

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Speaker 1: But again, lineup placement is why my whole thing was

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Speaker 1: six hundred and eighty eight played appearances last year. You know,

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Speaker 1: like the volume is king right, So if for any

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Speaker 1: reason he doesn't recreate that volume, you have to be

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Speaker 1: worried he doesn't recreate that productivity.

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Speaker 3: And it's fifty eight overall, fifty eight overall on ADP,

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Speaker 3: and I think that cost is built in simply on

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Speaker 3: the stolen bases. Projections don't like or repeat. They're about

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Speaker 3: ten to twelve less across the board. I also don't

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Speaker 3: like him to go over forty and because stolen bases

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Speaker 3: are just more plentiful and you can get Bryson Stott,

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Speaker 3: in my mind, is like a Nico Horner light that's

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Speaker 3: a player Andres Jimenez is the true Nico Horner light.

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Speaker 3: I can get Andres Jmenez outside the top one hundred,

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Speaker 3: get more homers. I think I can get within eighty

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Speaker 3: five percent on stolen bases. Average is probably the same.

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Speaker 3: Maybe I sacrifice the little runs blah blah blah, but

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Speaker 3: I'm saying, like ninety percent ish of Nico Horner fifty

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Speaker 3: to sixty spots later, that's what I'm gonna do. I'm busted,

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Speaker 3: Nico Horner. I know you're there with me.

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Speaker 2: I am.

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Speaker 1: It is also really for me the ADP in which

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Speaker 1: he's going I just think it's a little too high.

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Speaker 1: He's going ahead right now consensus ADP on Fantasy Bros.

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Speaker 1: Of Paul Goldschmith, ahead of Nolan Jones, ahead of Royce Lewis,

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Speaker 1: which is a player that I think is a five

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Speaker 1: category player.

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Speaker 2: So I don't I don't get this at all.

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Speaker 1: I understand that it's a big number of stolen bases

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Speaker 1: I get that, but to your point earlier Welsh, it's

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Speaker 1: easier to find steals later in the draft too, So

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Speaker 1: why am I paying almost, you know, a premium basically

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Speaker 1: for a guy who is, as you pointed out, and

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Speaker 1: I think it's very true, a three category player at best.

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Speaker 1: I don't see the power developing for Nico Horner. I

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Speaker 1: like the player, I just don't like the ADP. Now

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Speaker 1: what I take Nico Horner if he was going closer

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Speaker 1: to seventy five ninety range, yes, but in the top

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Speaker 1: fifty ish, I just think it's.

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Speaker 3: No where he's closer to Andres Jimenez you would take

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Speaker 3: it right. I will say, you know, one of the

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Speaker 3: battles here in great episode we did with Ario Cohen

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Speaker 3: if you want to hear about ATC projections on the

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Speaker 3: YouTube channel. In the podcast is like Ariol admitted that

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Speaker 3: like the guys that pop in the system are batting average,

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Speaker 3: and Ariol believes that runs are like a bigger fantasy

354
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Speaker 3: correlation right now, and that is something that Nico does

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Speaker 3: a pretty decent job of on both fronts. Like a

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Speaker 3: high batting average two eighty plus and he almost scored

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Speaker 3: one hundred runs. Those are going to value higher. So

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Speaker 3: I think that is part of why, like you're auction

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Speaker 3: calculators are going to value him a little bit above.

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Speaker 3: But I think the depleted homers like I'm chasing power

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Speaker 3: even more in drafts this year. Yeah, and he's a

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Speaker 3: nothing on this and stolen bases, I don't feel the

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Speaker 3: same weight of I mean, forty is incredible, but like

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Speaker 3: I have to get forty, you don't. I mean, you

365
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Speaker 3: can literally save your stolen base projections with Estory Ruiz

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Speaker 3: a little bit later while you've sprinkled in ten to

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Speaker 3: fifteen across the board. It's not to be totally dismissive

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Speaker 3: of Nico Horner. There is value runs in average are

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Speaker 3: hard to find on the wire and everything, but the

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Speaker 3: cost is.

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Speaker 2: Just really high. I can't do it, Walsh.

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Speaker 1: Not if Nolan Jroones is on the board, a guy

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Speaker 1: who get it relatively in the same range of average,

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Speaker 1: a guy who can have thirty thirty potentially. I mean,

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Speaker 1: there's just no way. I'm just not doing it. Third

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Speaker 1: base here for my All Bus team. This is a

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Speaker 1: player that I was really in on last year. He's

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Speaker 1: probably All Sleeper Team last year. I have to go

379
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Speaker 1: back and watch. But as Josh Young of the Texas Rangers.

380
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Speaker 1: I like Josh Young. Again, this is not like me

381
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Speaker 1: turning on Josh Young. You look at the counting stats

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Speaker 1: at the end of the year, you go, hey, this

383
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Speaker 1: is a really good season. He was in the early

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Speaker 1: discussion for Rookie of the Year last year. Is a

385
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Speaker 1: very strong season. Twenty three homers, seventy RBI, seventy five runs.

386
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Speaker 1: He did miss some time there last year. But some

387
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Speaker 1: other deeper issues there with Josh Young. The first one

388
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Speaker 1: that I want to bring up is against right handed pitching,

389
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Speaker 1: just two forty seven. That's a problem for me. You're

390
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Speaker 1: gonna face more right handed pitching in the American League.

391
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Speaker 1: Two ninety nine OBP, a four to nineteen slugging, seven

392
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Speaker 1: eighteen ops against righty's. That's not good enough. That is

393
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Speaker 1: a red flag to me. Also a red flag second

394
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Speaker 1: half of the year.

395
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Speaker 2: Now, I am.

396
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Speaker 1: Counting into the fact that health was part of it,

397
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Speaker 1: But at the same time, Welsh over his final thirty

398
00:17:42,160 --> 00:17:44,200
Speaker 1: four games in the second half, he hit just two

399
00:17:44,240 --> 00:17:45,919
Speaker 1: twenty nine with a two to seventy one OBP and

400
00:17:45,920 --> 00:17:48,320
Speaker 1: a three to sixty six slugging. That reeks to me

401
00:17:48,359 --> 00:17:50,240
Speaker 1: of a guy where maybe the league was starting to

402
00:17:50,240 --> 00:17:53,000
Speaker 1: catch up to him figure out his weaknesses. Can Josh

403
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Speaker 1: Young bounce back from that and adjust, Of course he can,

404
00:17:55,760 --> 00:17:58,399
Speaker 1: But at the same time you have to count into

405
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Speaker 1: all of those other things that I just brought up

406
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Speaker 1: there where there's a potential also for him to bust.

407
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Speaker 1: So once again, i'd rather have Royce Lewis, who I

408
00:18:06,960 --> 00:18:08,160
Speaker 1: don't think is going to be a bust. I think

409
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Speaker 1: is going to be great players of this year. I'm

410
00:18:10,280 --> 00:18:13,160
Speaker 1: looking at nuelve Marte, who's cheaper. I think there's other

411
00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:15,040
Speaker 1: ways if you're gonna look for a corner guy or

412
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Speaker 1: a low end third baseman that there's other places I'd

413
00:18:17,720 --> 00:18:20,000
Speaker 1: like to go that I think are a little bit steadier.

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Speaker 2: Potentially than Josh Young.

415
00:18:20,600 --> 00:18:23,359
Speaker 1: Welsh who made your third base list here for the

416
00:18:23,400 --> 00:18:25,360
Speaker 1: All Bust Potential team in twenty twenty four, and.

417
00:18:25,320 --> 00:18:27,280
Speaker 3: I feel like this guy's kind of a darling and

418
00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:30,000
Speaker 3: he qualifies at so many positions. This was the player

419
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Speaker 3: that I decided on because but I would do want

420
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Speaker 3: to point out Josh Young and like November, this was

421
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Speaker 3: my pick for this. The problem is he's just falling

422
00:18:36,760 --> 00:18:39,119
Speaker 3: so far. The injuries are falling like he's so cheap

423
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Speaker 3: now that now you're getting get and he's doing with the.

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Speaker 1: Cash war too, So it's not like it's not like

425
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Speaker 1: that doesn't linger potentially either, And so that doesn't make

426
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Speaker 1: me feel warm and fuzzy either. So this is more

427
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Speaker 1: about all those deep numbers than it is about the injury.

428
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Speaker 1: But we can't take that out of the equation too,

429
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Speaker 1: because he's had a lot of injury issues in the

430
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Speaker 1: last three years of his career.

431
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Speaker 3: Yeah, and taking guys like that are already in going

432
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Speaker 3: into the season, yeah, is a really dicey thing, Like

433
00:19:03,320 --> 00:19:05,480
Speaker 3: you gotta be really careful about those players like Corey

434
00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:08,199
Speaker 3: Seger is one that I'm comfortable with, but there's not

435
00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:09,680
Speaker 3: a lot of others. Oh so okay, So the guy

436
00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:13,400
Speaker 3: that I picked qualifies at multiple positions, kind of a darling,

437
00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:15,800
Speaker 3: but the cost is just a little too high for me.

438
00:19:16,080 --> 00:19:19,800
Speaker 3: And I picked Spencer Steer, who is technically twelfth that

439
00:19:19,880 --> 00:19:22,919
Speaker 3: third base. He's a top one hundred player you know

440
00:19:22,960 --> 00:19:26,320
Speaker 3: in deeper leagues. That position eligibility is a big positive.

441
00:19:26,840 --> 00:19:32,040
Speaker 3: But I just I'm worried about the position flexibility of

442
00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:35,199
Speaker 3: this roster because they've got so many great players that

443
00:19:35,240 --> 00:19:39,000
Speaker 3: they're trying to find spots for Ellie Noelvie, Christian and

444
00:19:39,080 --> 00:19:42,439
Speaker 3: Carnelcio and Strand and Candelario has been slammed in the

445
00:19:42,480 --> 00:19:45,480
Speaker 3: middle of that as a lockdown starter every single day.

446
00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:48,760
Speaker 3: Not to mention, you've got Frehley, You've got Freedol, you've

447
00:19:48,800 --> 00:19:51,600
Speaker 3: got Will Benson. There's so many players in there that

448
00:19:52,080 --> 00:19:55,520
Speaker 3: they didn't make a commitment to Spencer Steer not being

449
00:19:55,600 --> 00:19:57,920
Speaker 3: the guy. But I do feel like we're only a

450
00:19:57,960 --> 00:19:59,920
Speaker 3: couple of hot starts from players to push him off.

451
00:20:00,160 --> 00:20:02,800
Speaker 3: So not a huge, huge home run threat. Twenty homers

452
00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:05,359
Speaker 3: last year, stole a bunch of bases, but eight of

453
00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:09,240
Speaker 3: his stolen bases came in one month. That's eight of

454
00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:12,399
Speaker 3: fifteen stolen bases came in June of last year. If

455
00:20:12,440 --> 00:20:15,040
Speaker 3: opportunities are waning a little bit, this is not a

456
00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:18,439
Speaker 3: massively big stolen based guy. So if you're paying a

457
00:20:18,440 --> 00:20:21,360
Speaker 3: top one hundred cost and he can't meet that home

458
00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:24,280
Speaker 3: run threshold, and he can't meet that stolen based threshold,

459
00:20:24,520 --> 00:20:26,399
Speaker 3: I feel like a lot has to work in his

460
00:20:26,560 --> 00:20:28,920
Speaker 3: favor for him to be able to return the value

461
00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:31,639
Speaker 3: where it's inside the top one hundred. And I'm just

462
00:20:31,800 --> 00:20:36,680
Speaker 3: not quite there with with Spencer Steer. I'd also say

463
00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:40,639
Speaker 3: his expected batting average twenty spots lower than his actual

464
00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:46,320
Speaker 3: batting average expected slug almost sixty points slower four sixty

465
00:20:46,359 --> 00:20:49,679
Speaker 3: four to four h nine. Just I can't pay the

466
00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:51,480
Speaker 3: top one hundred price. And this is the guy that

467
00:20:51,560 --> 00:20:52,600
Speaker 3: I'm going to be picking on.

468
00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:55,479
Speaker 1: I understand. And the squeeze is my big concern too.

469
00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:57,520
Speaker 1: You mentioned that, Look, they've got so much young talent

470
00:20:57,560 --> 00:21:01,919
Speaker 1: there strand Dela Cruz Marte, like, you know, not to

471
00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:03,000
Speaker 1: mention Matt McLain, like.

472
00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:05,679
Speaker 3: I mean, there's only so many India is still sitting

473
00:21:05,680 --> 00:21:06,119
Speaker 3: out there, to.

474
00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:07,000
Speaker 2: India is still there.

475
00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:10,040
Speaker 1: I feel like he's gonna get deltough do you I

476
00:21:10,080 --> 00:21:10,479
Speaker 1: feel like that?

477
00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:12,080
Speaker 3: I mean, I've been thinking that was going to happen

478
00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:14,840
Speaker 3: for three months and it still hasn't happened. But that's

479
00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:18,200
Speaker 3: the craziest thing is India can be traded and it

480
00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:22,800
Speaker 3: still doesn't actually really fix this crazy big glut of players.

481
00:21:23,000 --> 00:21:25,320
Speaker 3: So like, what did Spincer Stereer? Just real quick and

482
00:21:25,359 --> 00:21:28,679
Speaker 3: we'll move on from it. Spencer Steer six hundred and

483
00:21:28,760 --> 00:21:31,000
Speaker 3: sixty five played appearances last year and one hundred and

484
00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:33,359
Speaker 3: fifty six games. I think it's going to be tough

485
00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:35,440
Speaker 3: for him to be able to reach that marker again.

486
00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:39,960
Speaker 3: By the way, every projection one hundred played appearance less,

487
00:21:40,400 --> 00:21:43,040
Speaker 3: so I think it's going to be a tough task

488
00:21:43,240 --> 00:21:45,520
Speaker 3: for him to repeat what he did last year, and

489
00:21:45,560 --> 00:21:47,800
Speaker 3: we're kind of paying this year for what he did

490
00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:48,320
Speaker 3: last year.

491
00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:50,159
Speaker 1: It would take an injury, I think, for him to

492
00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:52,280
Speaker 1: get back to that number. But it's also tough because

493
00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:54,320
Speaker 1: there's a player who was really useful off the waiver

494
00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:55,480
Speaker 1: wire for a lot of people. They have a lot

495
00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:57,800
Speaker 1: of good feelings about him, so they want to reinvest.

496
00:21:57,840 --> 00:22:00,560
Speaker 1: I totally get that. But the calculus is changed for

497
00:22:00,560 --> 00:22:02,480
Speaker 1: the Reds in twenty twenty four, and I think that's

498
00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:04,520
Speaker 1: something you have to take into account of that equation.

499
00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:06,879
Speaker 1: See all that math, metaphor just throughout there's a lot

500
00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:08,720
Speaker 1: of math. All right, Let's get to the next position

501
00:22:08,800 --> 00:22:11,199
Speaker 1: here on our list. It is shortstop and this is

502
00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:14,040
Speaker 1: a player Welsh that you selected that I gotta tell you,

503
00:22:14,119 --> 00:22:17,200
Speaker 1: I haven't been drafting a lot of and I'm curious

504
00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:18,560
Speaker 1: to hear your take on why you put them on

505
00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:21,159
Speaker 1: the bus team, because the more I continue to research,

506
00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:21,480
Speaker 1: the more.

507
00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:22,080
Speaker 2: I continue to look.

508
00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:24,199
Speaker 1: I feel like I need to be kinder to this player,

509
00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:26,600
Speaker 1: But maybe you see things differently when it comes to

510
00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:27,280
Speaker 1: Hasi on Kim.

511
00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:29,920
Speaker 3: So there's a couple of players I've kind of identified

512
00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:35,840
Speaker 3: that they don't have great hitting metrics but made every

513
00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:39,400
Speaker 3: ounce of their bat work and put C. J. Abrams

514
00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:42,560
Speaker 3: is one of those players. Like really poor barreling, not

515
00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:46,560
Speaker 3: great hard hit numbers, but launch angle, you know, pulled launch,

516
00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:49,520
Speaker 3: pulled fly balls was what he was able to, you know,

517
00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:52,160
Speaker 3: make work. Hassan Kim was kind of the same way.

518
00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:55,399
Speaker 3: Hassan Kim had one of the lowest barrel I actually

519
00:22:55,400 --> 00:22:58,600
Speaker 3: think he had, like the heart the bottom three worst

520
00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:00,840
Speaker 3: hard hit rate in all of bagall last year of

521
00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:03,480
Speaker 3: qualified hitters. It was a twenty six point two percent

522
00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:06,919
Speaker 3: that was seven percent lower than the previous year. But

523
00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:10,359
Speaker 3: he had a thirteen almost fourteen degree launch angle. But

524
00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:13,280
Speaker 3: those are paired with bad barreling that you got the

525
00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:17,159
Speaker 3: bad hard hit, you've actually got a negative expected batting average.

526
00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:19,240
Speaker 3: He hit two sixty, but it was two forty three

527
00:23:19,720 --> 00:23:23,320
Speaker 3: and his average EV was eighty six miles per hour.

528
00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:26,639
Speaker 3: Those are atrocious with an above average launch angle in

529
00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:29,480
Speaker 3: a bad hitting park. So what did he do absolutely

530
00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:33,960
Speaker 3: maximized to the umnth degree to get seventeen homers to me,

531
00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:36,160
Speaker 3: and it could blow up in my face. I don't

532
00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:39,200
Speaker 3: think that's sustainable, and I don't think that's going to continue,

533
00:23:39,240 --> 00:23:43,600
Speaker 3: and projections kind of agree. The stolen bases, I also don't.

534
00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:45,679
Speaker 3: I will say this, I think he stole like at

535
00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:48,000
Speaker 3: least three bases in every single month of the year.

536
00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:51,720
Speaker 3: So he could be a fifteen thirty guy and that

537
00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:55,880
Speaker 3: could end up working out. But his ADP is right

538
00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:59,000
Speaker 3: around eighty five and it's going a little bit higher

539
00:23:59,040 --> 00:24:01,639
Speaker 3: in a lot of other places. I have not drafted

540
00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:05,080
Speaker 3: him in, I think a single league, and I really

541
00:24:05,119 --> 00:24:07,160
Speaker 3: worried that the bat is going to take a regression

542
00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:09,359
Speaker 3: point where it's gonna be tough to get to thirty

543
00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:12,000
Speaker 3: stolen bases, it's gonna be tough to get to fifteen homers.

544
00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:14,439
Speaker 3: And if that's happening, he's also not going to hit

545
00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:16,280
Speaker 3: high in the lineup. I got like Jackson Merril could

546
00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:19,840
Speaker 3: take over high points in the lineup. So I'm fading

547
00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:21,080
Speaker 3: and busting Hassan Kim.

548
00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:23,280
Speaker 1: All right, my shortstop might surprise you again. This is

549
00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:25,320
Speaker 1: guy a little lower on the trough right now, he's

550
00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:28,560
Speaker 1: currently in a consensus ADP of two twelve, but I

551
00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:31,040
Speaker 1: think that's gonna change in the next couple weeks significantly.

552
00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:33,240
Speaker 1: And it's Trevor's story of the Boston Red Sox. And

553
00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:35,680
Speaker 1: this is more of a cautionary tale for everybody out

554
00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:37,800
Speaker 1: here too, because I don't think he's going to be

555
00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:40,000
Speaker 1: a post two hundred and EIGHTYP guy when we get

556
00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:42,520
Speaker 1: to two weeks from now, when people are drafting right

557
00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:45,000
Speaker 1: before the season, I think already you're seeing all the

558
00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:46,879
Speaker 1: positive things in the spring. He's in great shape, he

559
00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:48,960
Speaker 1: looks healthy, he looks like his old self, and I

560
00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:50,960
Speaker 1: think you're already seeing these injuries to other players that

561
00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:53,080
Speaker 1: are ahead of him in ADP where he is going

562
00:24:53,119 --> 00:24:54,920
Speaker 1: to continue to chug up, up, up up up. I

563
00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:56,720
Speaker 1: would not shock me if he broke the one seventy

564
00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:58,840
Speaker 1: five mark Welsh by the time he got closer he

565
00:24:58,840 --> 00:25:00,640
Speaker 1: becomes one of these people we look at, go well,

566
00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:03,399
Speaker 1: he's an infielder with you know, power and speed. We

567
00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:06,560
Speaker 1: could suffer the two thirty batting average. Okay, fine, but

568
00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:08,639
Speaker 1: I just want to remind everybody who Trevor Story is,

569
00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:10,719
Speaker 1: and Trevor Story is a player that you are going

570
00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:13,200
Speaker 1: to suffer batting average. You are going to suffer the

571
00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:15,440
Speaker 1: fact that he is not in Colorado. Boston's not the

572
00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:17,760
Speaker 1: same place for him. You look at the home road splits.

573
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:19,679
Speaker 1: I mean, it's just we know who Trevor Story is.

574
00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:22,520
Speaker 1: I continue to be perplexed of what the Red Sox

575
00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:24,479
Speaker 1: have done the last few years, getting rid of Mooky Bets,

576
00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:27,800
Speaker 1: letting Xander Bogarts walk, and then paying guys like Trevor Story.

577
00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:29,320
Speaker 2: I don't get it, and.

578
00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:31,679
Speaker 1: I don't get and I want to warn against the

579
00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:34,600
Speaker 1: rising adp of Trevor Story, because I do think it's

580
00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:38,600
Speaker 1: going to rise the familiarity factor, the member berries of

581
00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:42,200
Speaker 1: Trevor's story being once upon a time in Colorado. Hey, member,

582
00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:45,000
Speaker 1: when Chevis's story with thirty thirty, I membt that's what's

583
00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:46,879
Speaker 1: gonna happen here, you know, and I know it. Do

584
00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:48,399
Speaker 1: you think I'm wrong? Do you think that's good? I mean,

585
00:25:48,400 --> 00:25:50,440
Speaker 1: because I feel like that's where we're starting to head

586
00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:52,359
Speaker 1: of is oh. I remember this guy used to, you know,

587
00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:55,800
Speaker 1: steal twenty five bags and hit thirty homers, And I

588
00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:58,000
Speaker 1: think you're chasing something that just isn't going to exist

589
00:25:58,040 --> 00:26:00,000
Speaker 1: at the age thirty one season for Trevor story again.

590
00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:02,960
Speaker 3: My only problem that this is Reeze Hoskins all over again.

591
00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:05,200
Speaker 3: I kind of like Trevor's story, like, here's something I

592
00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:07,719
Speaker 3: learned from last year. Here's one thing I really screwed up.

593
00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:09,920
Speaker 3: So remember that article where I'm like, oh, I was amazing.

594
00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:12,560
Speaker 3: I was the best in all of my fades and whatnot.

595
00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:16,879
Speaker 3: I loled it myself when I looked at my first

596
00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:19,240
Speaker 3: base targets and my number two was jose A bray You.

597
00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:22,760
Speaker 3: And last year something I was very about was like, hey, listen,

598
00:26:23,280 --> 00:26:26,800
Speaker 3: I think I can skip and fade these high end

599
00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:29,000
Speaker 3: first base and blah blah blah because I can get

600
00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:32,200
Speaker 3: this guy a little bit later. I want to move

601
00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:35,560
Speaker 3: off that approach. If I was being like, hey, I

602
00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:38,520
Speaker 3: can fade some of these shortstops because I can get

603
00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:41,200
Speaker 3: Trevor's story later, he could be my starter, and I

604
00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:44,600
Speaker 3: think he can be a top seven shortstop. I think

605
00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:46,280
Speaker 3: that's a recipe.

606
00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:48,880
Speaker 1: He could also be your version of twenty twenty four,

607
00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:50,720
Speaker 1: jose A bra You of twenty twenty three.

608
00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:51,640
Speaker 3: That's what I'm saying.

609
00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:52,199
Speaker 2: Same logic.

610
00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:54,960
Speaker 1: That thing I'm trying to warn everybody of is like, hey,

611
00:26:55,200 --> 00:26:57,000
Speaker 1: jose A Bray was great once upon a time. But

612
00:26:57,040 --> 00:27:00,399
Speaker 1: when a player starts to decline, no matter what, sometimes

613
00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:03,119
Speaker 1: you know, new circumstances don't always fit. The other thing, too,

614
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:06,960
Speaker 1: is well you talked about you know that range. Here's

615
00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:09,480
Speaker 1: some of the names in that range. Logan o'happy, I

616
00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:12,520
Speaker 1: want to draft him, Shotto Imanaga, I want to draft him.

617
00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:14,840
Speaker 1: I like Jaron Durant, I like Brian Wu, I like

618
00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:18,320
Speaker 1: Ezekiel Tovar, I like Lars Neubar, Junior Kaminarol. I am

619
00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:20,960
Speaker 1: running love letters too on a daily basis. Brandon Fott,

620
00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:23,520
Speaker 1: Jung Holy, all of which are going in this ranger

621
00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:26,240
Speaker 1: of Trevor story. That's my big problem is I think

622
00:27:26,280 --> 00:27:28,600
Speaker 1: those are all players that I personally want to be

623
00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:31,520
Speaker 1: in the business of. Or is Trevor story The downside,

624
00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:33,520
Speaker 1: I just think is bigger and people realize, let's move

625
00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:36,159
Speaker 1: on to the outfield. Give me a couple outfielders that

626
00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:37,960
Speaker 1: you're concerned with. One of them is one of my

627
00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:40,639
Speaker 1: favorite guys. So I'm gonna fight you on the first one.

628
00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:42,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, I've kind of talked about it a decent amount.

629
00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:46,680
Speaker 3: I hate the adp of Nolan Jones and it's gonna

630
00:27:46,680 --> 00:27:49,880
Speaker 3: be a pitchforks and people coming after me and trying

631
00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:52,199
Speaker 3: to send me to the town square. I get it

632
00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:56,840
Speaker 3: because everybody loves Nolan Jones. But the cost is I mean,

633
00:27:56,880 --> 00:27:59,480
Speaker 3: it is peak, peak peak. It is fifty nine off

634
00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:01,280
Speaker 3: of what he did last year, which was great in

635
00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:04,000
Speaker 3: so many instances. He second half, the second half he

636
00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:06,399
Speaker 3: hit three to zho one. Two things that kind of

637
00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:08,320
Speaker 3: stand out to me based on the cost. He had

638
00:28:08,400 --> 00:28:13,720
Speaker 3: a skyrocketing babbit of over four hundred, and that is

639
00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:18,760
Speaker 3: not sustainable. And that also is a regression batting average.

640
00:28:19,640 --> 00:28:22,680
Speaker 3: That's a candidate. That's the candidate for batting average regression,

641
00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:25,840
Speaker 3: like without question. Another thing I talked about Spencer Steer

642
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:29,560
Speaker 3: stealing half of his stolen bases in one month. Well,

643
00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:33,760
Speaker 3: the September October, Nolan Jones twelve of his what was

644
00:28:33,760 --> 00:28:37,919
Speaker 3: it twenty stolen bases came in one month. So that

645
00:28:37,960 --> 00:28:41,400
Speaker 3: has me worried over fifty points of batting average regression

646
00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:43,960
Speaker 3: implied to his expected batting average. He hit two ninety

647
00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:47,960
Speaker 3: seven two forty seven expected batting average. So I take

648
00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:52,800
Speaker 3: sky rocketing babbit numbers expected numbers that look lower from

649
00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:54,960
Speaker 3: a batting average standpoint, and stolen bases that might not

650
00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:58,440
Speaker 3: be sustainable, and I go top fifty. He barrels, he

651
00:28:58,520 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 3: hits the ball hard, he gets the ball in the air,

652
00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:03,280
Speaker 3: and he's in Colorado. All are awesome, but I'm a

653
00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:06,200
Speaker 3: little bit worried about a top fifty overall costs. We

654
00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:09,360
Speaker 3: had this conversation about Bellinger versus Nolan Jones. Nolan Jones

655
00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:13,000
Speaker 3: has better hitting metrics, but I think from a track

656
00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:15,280
Speaker 3: record standpoint, even though I know it's been walky last

657
00:29:15,280 --> 00:29:17,000
Speaker 3: couple of years, I think I feel better about the

658
00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:19,640
Speaker 3: changes that Bellinger has made as a hitter. I'll take him.

659
00:29:19,880 --> 00:29:21,840
Speaker 3: That's why I'm busting Nolan Jones. Did you want my

660
00:29:21,880 --> 00:29:22,720
Speaker 3: other or we just.

661
00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:24,560
Speaker 1: Well, I just want to the only thing I want

662
00:29:24,560 --> 00:29:26,240
Speaker 1: to throw out in Nolan Jones' defense too, because a

663
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:27,880
Speaker 1: lot of people say, well, he plays in Colorado. Was

664
00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:29,960
Speaker 1: he do on you know, on the road last year

665
00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:32,880
Speaker 1: on the road to eighty eight three eighty obp five

666
00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:34,640
Speaker 1: to fifty four, slugging on the road nine to thirty

667
00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:37,160
Speaker 1: five ops. That's why I'm so in on Nolan Jones

668
00:29:37,160 --> 00:29:39,640
Speaker 1: because he's not just a Colorado product. You're one hundred

669
00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:42,240
Speaker 1: percent right that babbit cannot hold. We know it's gonna

670
00:29:42,280 --> 00:29:44,400
Speaker 1: come down, but evens something in two sixty and still

671
00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:46,840
Speaker 1: goes thirty twenty, I'll take that to the bank.

672
00:29:46,920 --> 00:29:48,520
Speaker 2: And that's still good at eightyp.

673
00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:50,480
Speaker 3: And that may be what happens, like and I kind of.

674
00:29:50,440 --> 00:29:52,480
Speaker 1: That's still if I told you that's the top fifty player,

675
00:29:52,480 --> 00:29:53,240
Speaker 1: you would agree, right.

676
00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:55,400
Speaker 3: I think it's right there. But see, like I think

677
00:29:55,480 --> 00:29:58,120
Speaker 3: like a high outcome has to be in play for

678
00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:01,280
Speaker 3: him to return that value. He might be a twenty

679
00:30:01,360 --> 00:30:04,560
Speaker 3: twenty guy again with more at bats this year, with

680
00:30:04,640 --> 00:30:07,000
Speaker 3: that batting average regression. So I'm just throwing it out there.

681
00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:09,320
Speaker 3: I just I don't love the If it's an OBP league,

682
00:30:09,320 --> 00:30:11,360
Speaker 3: I take him. I just don't love the cost. My

683
00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:13,760
Speaker 3: other one just wrote, QUEBP league, that's a good point too.

684
00:30:13,800 --> 00:30:15,760
Speaker 2: You got is es there.

685
00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:19,040
Speaker 3: My other one is Masataka Yoshita. I actually think he

686
00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:23,840
Speaker 3: might be the third most valuable fantasy outfielder from the

687
00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:27,200
Speaker 3: Red Sox, after Tyler O'Neil and after Jaron Duran And

688
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:29,360
Speaker 3: I throw this out. I even think there's a chance

689
00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:32,240
Speaker 3: that Rafaela could be a guy that could overpower him.

690
00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:34,880
Speaker 3: I love the batting average, but I don't like any

691
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:37,000
Speaker 3: of the hitting metrics. He doesn't steal enough, he doesn't

692
00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:38,800
Speaker 3: hit enough homers. He hits at the top of the

693
00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:41,120
Speaker 3: lineup that is going to score some good runs. So

694
00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:44,520
Speaker 3: this might this is like two categories. But I'm not

695
00:30:44,800 --> 00:30:50,000
Speaker 3: in to Yoshu Masataki Yoshida, especially one fifty three ADP

696
00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:53,320
Speaker 3: thirty eighth of outfielders overall, and like I said, I

697
00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:56,160
Speaker 3: think he might be the bottom tier of those Red

698
00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:57,080
Speaker 3: Sox outfielders.

699
00:30:57,240 --> 00:30:57,600
Speaker 2: All right.

700
00:30:57,680 --> 00:30:59,600
Speaker 1: For me in the outfield, I got two names. The

701
00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:02,760
Speaker 1: first one is Evan Carter, going at one oh three ADP.

702
00:31:03,000 --> 00:31:05,640
Speaker 1: Right now, that's a consensus ADP. It's just too high

703
00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:08,440
Speaker 1: for me. You see some of the other guys, you

704
00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:10,360
Speaker 1: know we're gonna talk about, probably on the breakout teams.

705
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:14,000
Speaker 1: I would imagine the Cheerios, the Caminaros, the White Langfords.

706
00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:17,120
Speaker 1: Evan Carter, I understand it was fun, you know, you

707
00:31:17,240 --> 00:31:19,320
Speaker 1: got to play the postseason, big exposure level.

708
00:31:19,760 --> 00:31:21,280
Speaker 2: But he has only played eight games.

709
00:31:21,320 --> 00:31:24,320
Speaker 1: He only is thirty nine at bats over actually thirty

710
00:31:24,320 --> 00:31:26,080
Speaker 1: four at bats I should say at Triple A level.

711
00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:28,400
Speaker 1: And when players make that jump from Double A to

712
00:31:28,520 --> 00:31:31,680
Speaker 1: the big leagues sometimes it just it doesn't always work out.

713
00:31:31,760 --> 00:31:34,360
Speaker 1: You know, for every Evan Longoria, there's a player that

714
00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:37,400
Speaker 1: it does not work out for, probably threefold, if not five.

715
00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:39,360
Speaker 2: So my other.

716
00:31:39,240 --> 00:31:40,760
Speaker 1: Concern when I look at Evan Carter two is, and

717
00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:42,880
Speaker 1: I keep bringing this up and all these shows, is

718
00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:45,880
Speaker 1: the frame. He's a little slight. I feel like it's

719
00:31:45,920 --> 00:31:48,000
Speaker 1: a long season of major league baseball. It's a lot

720
00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:49,680
Speaker 1: of travel, it's a lot to deal with at the

721
00:31:49,720 --> 00:31:51,960
Speaker 1: big league level. I could see it wearing on him

722
00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:53,800
Speaker 1: a little bit. I look at the body type of

723
00:31:53,800 --> 00:31:56,040
Speaker 1: some players who are young and coming into the league,

724
00:31:56,160 --> 00:31:58,520
Speaker 1: like camon Arow, like White Langford, and I just think

725
00:31:58,520 --> 00:32:01,480
Speaker 1: they're built differently, and I think that's to their advantage.

726
00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:02,760
Speaker 1: So there's a lot of reason why I think he

727
00:32:02,760 --> 00:32:04,800
Speaker 1: could be a bust at one oh three. I know

728
00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:06,800
Speaker 1: people love Evan Carter. Again, I don't hate Evan Carter.

729
00:32:07,120 --> 00:32:08,920
Speaker 1: I just don't like the price of Evan Carter this year.

730
00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:10,520
Speaker 1: I think it's you want to talk about a guy

731
00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:12,560
Speaker 1: who's priced that everything has to go right as a

732
00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:14,640
Speaker 1: top one hundred player, basically, I think that's where his

733
00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:17,080
Speaker 1: price is. And the other one is Jorge Solaire coming

734
00:32:17,080 --> 00:32:19,240
Speaker 1: off a really good season last year, but I don't

735
00:32:19,320 --> 00:32:21,920
Speaker 1: like the signing in San fran for him. It's not

736
00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:26,480
Speaker 1: the best ballpark factor for him, it's not the best lineup.

737
00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:28,120
Speaker 2: You know. As much as you know, we could all

738
00:32:28,200 --> 00:32:28,880
Speaker 2: joke about.

739
00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:30,959
Speaker 1: Marlins from time to time, you know, the Marlins were

740
00:32:31,000 --> 00:32:33,960
Speaker 1: chippy last year, you know, And I think that now

741
00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:35,920
Speaker 1: you'll look back and you see him going over here.

742
00:32:36,360 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 1: I just feel like so Lair people are gonna try

743
00:32:39,000 --> 00:32:40,720
Speaker 1: to chase, you know, last season.

744
00:32:40,480 --> 00:32:42,200
Speaker 2: A little bit. I think they're gonna be disappointed again.

745
00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:43,960
Speaker 1: The ADP at one fifty two is still fine if

746
00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:45,440
Speaker 1: you're looking for power late in your draft, but I

747
00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:47,680
Speaker 1: think you have to understand too, there's been a lot

748
00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:49,480
Speaker 1: of up and down the career of Hore Solaire, and

749
00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:51,000
Speaker 1: I think he's a tough player to gauge. So for

750
00:32:51,040 --> 00:32:53,560
Speaker 1: those reasons, I think Carter and Solarra players that I

751
00:32:53,600 --> 00:32:55,360
Speaker 1: think have bust potential in twenty twenty four.

752
00:32:55,520 --> 00:32:58,040
Speaker 2: Welsh any comments about one or both of those guys.

753
00:32:57,920 --> 00:33:00,840
Speaker 3: I mean, I kind of like es Solaire, I'm a

754
00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:03,160
Speaker 3: little indifferent about Evan Carter. We had someone was like

755
00:33:03,160 --> 00:33:05,600
Speaker 3: tweeting us about Evan Carter like I was actually defending

756
00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:09,120
Speaker 3: I've kind of been shady on Evan Carter even after

757
00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:11,120
Speaker 3: he hit his two bombs the other day, because I'm

758
00:33:11,280 --> 00:33:13,040
Speaker 3: I question, like, what the impact.

759
00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:15,640
Speaker 1: Springs are not going to impress me for That's not

760
00:33:15,680 --> 00:33:17,800
Speaker 1: going to change my opinion of what I'm saying.

761
00:33:17,840 --> 00:33:20,760
Speaker 3: People like that Ava Logan Gilbert, but he's still not

762
00:33:20,920 --> 00:33:23,000
Speaker 3: like hitting, you know, extra base hits off a lefties.

763
00:33:23,040 --> 00:33:25,000
Speaker 3: I think White Langford is the better of the Texas

764
00:33:25,080 --> 00:33:28,280
Speaker 3: Rangers outfielders. I'm kind of okay about him, So Lair.

765
00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:31,240
Speaker 3: The reason I like Solaire it's hard to find thirty

766
00:33:31,240 --> 00:33:33,680
Speaker 3: five plus homers outside the top one twenty five or

767
00:33:33,680 --> 00:33:35,760
Speaker 3: one fifty and you can get that there. You could

768
00:33:35,840 --> 00:33:38,520
Speaker 3: argue ballpark factor as something that's going to worry you

769
00:33:38,560 --> 00:33:39,680
Speaker 3: a little bit, but he's in a hit in the

770
00:33:39,680 --> 00:33:42,640
Speaker 3: middle of that lineup, and I think thirty homers are

771
00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:45,720
Speaker 3: a gimme and one fifty eighty piece. So of those players,

772
00:33:45,720 --> 00:33:49,240
Speaker 3: I actually like Jorgees Solaire more than Carter, just kind

773
00:33:49,240 --> 00:33:52,640
Speaker 3: of based off of like my draft acumen. But yeah,

774
00:33:52,720 --> 00:33:54,680
Speaker 3: like Solaer, I kind of dig I no way I

775
00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:55,360
Speaker 3: could bust him.

776
00:33:55,680 --> 00:33:57,040
Speaker 1: Well, I think you took him in the last draft

777
00:33:57,080 --> 00:34:00,320
Speaker 1: we did right, yeah, when I think and Bubba and look,

778
00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:02,400
Speaker 1: I had him in my cue because I needed some power.

779
00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:03,120
Speaker 2: So I get it.

780
00:34:03,160 --> 00:34:05,760
Speaker 1: But I also have to understand too, for you know,

781
00:34:05,800 --> 00:34:07,840
Speaker 1: the every two to fifty season he had last year.

782
00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:09,399
Speaker 1: You know, you got to look at the two PHO

783
00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:11,000
Speaker 1: seven that he had in twenty twenty two and the

784
00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:12,600
Speaker 1: twenty twenty one or two to twenty three, so he

785
00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:14,240
Speaker 1: could be a drain on batting average.

786
00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:15,919
Speaker 2: He really hurts you in a lot of spots too.

787
00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:18,439
Speaker 1: So I'm not chasing the forty home runs from twenty

788
00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:20,520
Speaker 1: nineteen when it comes to Hora Slaram, just not going

789
00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:20,960
Speaker 1: to do it.

790
00:34:21,120 --> 00:34:21,799
Speaker 2: And last year was.

791
00:34:21,760 --> 00:34:23,200
Speaker 1: A good season, but it was also a good season,

792
00:34:23,480 --> 00:34:25,880
Speaker 1: you know, in a contract year and now, and you

793
00:34:25,880 --> 00:34:28,319
Speaker 1: know sometimes you can't chase that either. Let's get to

794
00:34:28,640 --> 00:34:31,440
Speaker 1: the pitchers here. Well, I'll start first with these and

795
00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:33,800
Speaker 1: sure these are very simple for me. Blake Snell is

796
00:34:33,880 --> 00:34:35,560
Speaker 1: number one for me. He's still going at an ADP

797
00:34:35,640 --> 00:34:37,719
Speaker 1: of sixty three as of us recording this right now.

798
00:34:37,760 --> 00:34:39,960
Speaker 2: He is still yet to sign. Right. I didn't miss

799
00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:41,759
Speaker 2: anything in the last twenty minutes.

800
00:34:41,680 --> 00:34:46,319
Speaker 1: Right, I don't think probably releases it will probably and

801
00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:50,080
Speaker 1: you know what, it doesn't matter because I think it's

802
00:34:50,120 --> 00:34:54,359
Speaker 1: already into march here and you're starting behind a little bit.

803
00:34:54,560 --> 00:34:58,560
Speaker 1: There's a lot of rushing. It makes me a little uneasy,

804
00:34:58,719 --> 00:35:00,799
Speaker 1: that's all I'm going to say. And we don't know

805
00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:02,279
Speaker 1: where he's going to land yet, and I just don't

806
00:35:02,280 --> 00:35:04,440
Speaker 1: think we're getting enough of a discount currently on that,

807
00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:06,840
Speaker 1: because if you're looking at the other pictures going in

808
00:35:06,880 --> 00:35:09,840
Speaker 1: that same range, Welsh, that's my big concern. It's I

809
00:35:09,880 --> 00:35:13,600
Speaker 1: feel very comfortable with knowing, you know what I'm going

810
00:35:13,640 --> 00:35:17,320
Speaker 1: to get out of Grayson Rodriguez, let's say, or Hazel's Lozardo.

811
00:35:17,400 --> 00:35:19,799
Speaker 1: Those are pictures going in that same range. I'd rather

812
00:35:19,840 --> 00:35:22,080
Speaker 1: take both of those guys than Blake Snell. Despite the

813
00:35:22,080 --> 00:35:23,560
Speaker 1: fact that Snell's coming off of cy Young in a

814
00:35:23,560 --> 00:35:25,920
Speaker 1: great season. Now it's like, not only does he have

815
00:35:25,960 --> 00:35:27,680
Speaker 1: to follow it up, which we've already seen sometimes it

816
00:35:27,680 --> 00:35:30,520
Speaker 1: doesn't happen with Blake Snell, but also the walk rate's

817
00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:32,880
Speaker 1: still very high last year despite all the success.

818
00:35:33,360 --> 00:35:35,680
Speaker 2: He doesn't have a home. He's gonna be working from behind.

819
00:35:36,239 --> 00:35:36,640
Speaker 2: I don't know.

820
00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:38,799
Speaker 1: I just feel like this is a big ask here

821
00:35:38,840 --> 00:35:41,520
Speaker 1: at sixty three overall, and Kodai Singa is still being

822
00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:42,600
Speaker 1: drafted at one O two.

823
00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:44,080
Speaker 2: That's the other one for me.

824
00:35:44,480 --> 00:35:46,560
Speaker 1: And maybe it's because I'm just a loser Mets fan

825
00:35:46,600 --> 00:35:49,560
Speaker 1: at heart that can't get the negativity out of his brain.

826
00:35:50,120 --> 00:35:53,000
Speaker 1: But there's no guarantee that this guy's back in May.

827
00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:56,359
Speaker 1: There's no guarantee that he doesn't have another setback. There's

828
00:35:56,400 --> 00:35:59,160
Speaker 1: no guarantee that the Mets rush him back because the

829
00:35:59,160 --> 00:36:02,600
Speaker 1: Mets are gonna be competitive or have designs on being competitive.

830
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:04,480
Speaker 1: I think if you look at that roster, it is

831
00:36:04,520 --> 00:36:06,760
Speaker 1: not a competitive team right now, especially in the rotation.

832
00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:10,719
Speaker 1: So for me, Senga and Snell, their ADP has not

833
00:36:10,840 --> 00:36:14,080
Speaker 1: fallen enough for me, and the bust potential is too

834
00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:16,719
Speaker 1: large for the ADP on both of those guys. So

835
00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:19,560
Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna be out on both Snell and Senga

836
00:36:19,719 --> 00:36:22,640
Speaker 1: unless the ADP changes, or unless Blake Snell signs with

837
00:36:22,680 --> 00:36:25,759
Speaker 1: the Yankees tomorrow or something like that, or some juggernaut

838
00:36:25,760 --> 00:36:27,759
Speaker 1: team that I go, Okay, well you know what I'm

839
00:36:27,800 --> 00:36:28,399
Speaker 1: back in now.

840
00:36:28,640 --> 00:36:32,280
Speaker 3: I'll admit I've been kind of a Snell apologist, oh man,

841
00:36:32,880 --> 00:36:35,440
Speaker 3: but I'm worried a little worried right now.

842
00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:38,560
Speaker 2: I mean, why not it's the sixth of March as

843
00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:39,160
Speaker 2: it's recording this.

844
00:36:39,640 --> 00:36:41,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it. I think it happens this week,

845
00:36:41,800 --> 00:36:43,239
Speaker 3: but you know say it every since.

846
00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:45,279
Speaker 2: Well we said two weeks ago, and last week and

847
00:36:45,320 --> 00:36:46,040
Speaker 2: the week before that.

848
00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:49,000
Speaker 3: The Sego one's ridiculous. Like I love Sanging before the injury.

849
00:36:49,680 --> 00:36:51,719
Speaker 3: I'll tell you I've been doing a couple drafts. He

850
00:36:51,800 --> 00:36:53,919
Speaker 3: just keeps falling one fifty two hundred, So I don't

851
00:36:53,920 --> 00:36:56,719
Speaker 3: know who's still taking him if things haven't updated. But yeah,

852
00:36:56,719 --> 00:36:59,080
Speaker 3: that's based off of ADP. That's silly.

853
00:36:59,239 --> 00:37:01,239
Speaker 1: He's on a one from one two to one oh

854
00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:03,520
Speaker 1: seven in the last twenty four hours.

855
00:37:03,560 --> 00:37:04,759
Speaker 2: That's it in consensus.

856
00:37:04,960 --> 00:37:06,880
Speaker 1: I mean, now, look, you're right, that's probably going to

857
00:37:06,960 --> 00:37:09,239
Speaker 1: change in the next couple of weeks. That numbers gonna

858
00:37:09,280 --> 00:37:11,000
Speaker 1: drop more. But as of right now, as of today,

859
00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:13,319
Speaker 1: if that's where he is on the board, I'm out.

860
00:37:13,560 --> 00:37:15,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, like him and Bradish are on my no draft

861
00:37:15,680 --> 00:37:17,920
Speaker 3: list right now, we don't have enough information to invest,

862
00:37:17,960 --> 00:37:20,920
Speaker 3: so absolutely no. Thanks the two guys I got on

863
00:37:20,960 --> 00:37:24,000
Speaker 3: my list, We'll see. You might get poked at and

864
00:37:24,000 --> 00:37:26,000
Speaker 3: prodd it a little bit if people get mad at

865
00:37:26,000 --> 00:37:28,760
Speaker 3: me about it, but I'm not investing. I've not drafted

866
00:37:28,760 --> 00:37:31,359
Speaker 3: these guys, I think, like really anywhere. So there's kind

867
00:37:31,360 --> 00:37:32,880
Speaker 3: of a part of like they just don't fit my,

868
00:37:33,640 --> 00:37:35,319
Speaker 3: you know, my mix of the pictures that I want.

869
00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:38,440
Speaker 3: They're also around pictures that I like quite a bit

870
00:37:38,440 --> 00:37:40,160
Speaker 3: more so they're pushed out on my ranks. Number one

871
00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:45,920
Speaker 3: Logan Gilbert, who is eighteenth on SP's sixty five overall.

872
00:37:46,719 --> 00:37:51,400
Speaker 3: I he's the least of the exciting Mariner pictures in

873
00:37:51,440 --> 00:37:53,799
Speaker 3: the entire group. Lost a little bit of elo on

874
00:37:53,840 --> 00:37:58,319
Speaker 3: the fastball of all the pitches as well. The expected

875
00:37:58,440 --> 00:38:03,359
Speaker 3: slugging numbers I believe on I think every single pitch, Yeah,

876
00:38:03,360 --> 00:38:05,960
Speaker 3: every single pitch I'm seeing here was higher than the

877
00:38:06,040 --> 00:38:08,399
Speaker 3: year before. The expected slug so and the slug number.

878
00:38:08,480 --> 00:38:11,400
Speaker 3: So that's just telling you he's getting hit harder and

879
00:38:11,440 --> 00:38:13,920
Speaker 3: the potential still there is he's trying to revamp this

880
00:38:14,000 --> 00:38:16,680
Speaker 3: pitch mix. He did lower his walk rate, which is

881
00:38:16,760 --> 00:38:19,840
Speaker 3: Kirby esque, but his expected era numbers were right in

882
00:38:19,880 --> 00:38:22,640
Speaker 3: line with this above three and a half number, and

883
00:38:23,040 --> 00:38:26,240
Speaker 3: he's getting smacked hit hard, Like his fastball is getting

884
00:38:26,320 --> 00:38:29,400
Speaker 3: hit hard. He gave up a one seventeen and a

885
00:38:29,440 --> 00:38:33,400
Speaker 3: one eighteen the year before he's a good pitcher, I

886
00:38:33,400 --> 00:38:37,320
Speaker 3: don't think he's exceptionally exciting. I do like low walk pitchers,

887
00:38:37,600 --> 00:38:40,040
Speaker 3: but I don't think the strikeout upside is going to

888
00:38:40,080 --> 00:38:42,000
Speaker 3: be there. I don't think the pitch mix is telling

889
00:38:42,120 --> 00:38:45,759
Speaker 3: us anything super exciting. Maybe if he starts throwing something else,

890
00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:47,480
Speaker 3: we'll get there, but I think what it is is

891
00:38:47,480 --> 00:38:50,200
Speaker 3: he's masking his fastball, and I just don't think we're

892
00:38:50,239 --> 00:38:53,000
Speaker 3: going to get anywhere. We're paying like a top twenty

893
00:38:53,040 --> 00:38:54,880
Speaker 3: s but I don't think he That's another thing. I

894
00:38:54,920 --> 00:38:56,960
Speaker 3: don't think he has the upside to be a top

895
00:38:57,760 --> 00:39:00,600
Speaker 3: ten SP. And there's just a hand full of guys

896
00:39:00,600 --> 00:39:03,080
Speaker 3: from fifteen to thirty that I think do. So that

897
00:39:03,120 --> 00:39:05,160
Speaker 3: gets me out on him and the other one, this

898
00:39:05,239 --> 00:39:06,920
Speaker 3: might be another one that people don't like, but is

899
00:39:06,960 --> 00:39:11,680
Speaker 3: Hazius Lozardo, who is SP twenty three. He's seventy six

900
00:39:11,920 --> 00:39:15,759
Speaker 3: on the overall ADP. And this kind of comes back

901
00:39:15,800 --> 00:39:22,080
Speaker 3: to similar things with Gilbert in that I think Lozardo

902
00:39:22,360 --> 00:39:24,520
Speaker 3: has been kind of this like heavy. He moved his

903
00:39:24,600 --> 00:39:28,080
Speaker 3: pitch mix heavily into the fastball last year, and I

904
00:39:28,080 --> 00:39:31,239
Speaker 3: don't think that's doing him any favors or any big

905
00:39:31,280 --> 00:39:34,600
Speaker 3: wonder he got hit two sixty eight expected batting average

906
00:39:34,640 --> 00:39:36,799
Speaker 3: against where the year before it was two twenty five.

907
00:39:37,120 --> 00:39:40,319
Speaker 3: He also not doing well as far as splits go

908
00:39:40,800 --> 00:39:44,640
Speaker 3: versus lefties. He had a sub one whip, but it

909
00:39:44,680 --> 00:39:47,120
Speaker 3: was a one to three to one whip against righty,

910
00:39:47,200 --> 00:39:49,520
Speaker 3: so he has not figured out how to get Righty's out.

911
00:39:49,600 --> 00:39:52,400
Speaker 3: And I just like he's always a good strikeout option,

912
00:39:52,680 --> 00:39:54,399
Speaker 3: but I think he's expected I got to go back

913
00:39:54,400 --> 00:39:56,239
Speaker 3: and look because I went away from it. His expected

914
00:39:56,280 --> 00:39:59,799
Speaker 3: era was almost four. It was three nine six this

915
00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:04,279
Speaker 3: past year. And his expected era has sat relatively with

916
00:40:04,360 --> 00:40:07,000
Speaker 3: his era most of his career, but this is almost

917
00:40:07,080 --> 00:40:10,440
Speaker 3: a full run above. He's getting hit harder. He got

918
00:40:10,440 --> 00:40:13,520
Speaker 3: barreled almost ten percent of the time. I just like,

919
00:40:13,560 --> 00:40:15,640
Speaker 3: I think he's a better strikeout option than Gilbert, and

920
00:40:15,719 --> 00:40:19,080
Speaker 3: he's cheaper. I actually like Lizardo over Gilbert. Both of

921
00:40:19,120 --> 00:40:21,759
Speaker 3: these guys are pictures. I'm fading and I will put

922
00:40:21,800 --> 00:40:22,560
Speaker 3: on my bus list.

923
00:40:22,680 --> 00:40:24,799
Speaker 1: You know, Lozardo did fade in the second half. I

924
00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:27,520
Speaker 1: want to equate that to workload more than anything for him.

925
00:40:27,520 --> 00:40:29,200
Speaker 1: I mean, one hundred and seventy nineythings. That's just high

926
00:40:29,200 --> 00:40:32,120
Speaker 1: in the Major leagues. The other thing, too, is the

927
00:40:32,280 --> 00:40:35,040
Speaker 1: splits at home last year for Lozardo three ZHO seven

928
00:40:35,080 --> 00:40:38,040
Speaker 1: e RA away four point four to eight. That's a

929
00:40:38,040 --> 00:40:40,840
Speaker 1: big difference, So a little bit more consistency on the

930
00:40:40,920 --> 00:40:42,320
Speaker 1: road I'd like to see out of Lozardo.

931
00:40:42,440 --> 00:40:45,200
Speaker 2: I still like him more than you, but I understand

932
00:40:45,239 --> 00:40:45,920
Speaker 2: all the points you made.

933
00:40:45,960 --> 00:40:47,480
Speaker 1: When it comes to closer, the guy that made of

934
00:40:47,560 --> 00:40:50,320
Speaker 1: my list is at one sixty seven. It's Kenley Jansen.

935
00:40:50,360 --> 00:40:52,840
Speaker 1: It's a combination of age but also injury. He was

936
00:40:52,880 --> 00:40:55,160
Speaker 1: dealing with a lat injury in February. They shut him down.

937
00:40:55,160 --> 00:40:57,279
Speaker 1: Now he's back to throwing this week apparently, so we'll

938
00:40:57,280 --> 00:40:59,520
Speaker 1: see how that goes. But lot injuries can be tricky.

939
00:40:59,560 --> 00:41:02,120
Speaker 1: We've seen that before. And also a guy that's been

940
00:41:02,160 --> 00:41:04,719
Speaker 1: around for quite some time. The ERA was up a

941
00:41:04,760 --> 00:41:07,280
Speaker 1: little bit last year three six three, a little higher.

942
00:41:07,560 --> 00:41:09,640
Speaker 1: Strikeout rate is down a little bit. You know, there's

943
00:41:09,640 --> 00:41:11,520
Speaker 1: a player that's been around the block more than one.

944
00:41:11,600 --> 00:41:13,560
Speaker 1: So it's not that Kelly Jansen can't be good. But

945
00:41:13,560 --> 00:41:16,040
Speaker 1: if I'm looking for a potential bust at closer, I

946
00:41:16,040 --> 00:41:17,719
Speaker 1: think Kenley Jansen could be one of those guys that

947
00:41:17,719 --> 00:41:19,759
Speaker 1: you circle and say I'm a little concerned about him

948
00:41:19,760 --> 00:41:22,120
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four, Welsh, is there a closer that

949
00:41:22,320 --> 00:41:24,400
Speaker 1: for you have concerns with coming into the season?

950
00:41:24,600 --> 00:41:24,799
Speaker 2: Yeah?

951
00:41:24,840 --> 00:41:27,879
Speaker 3: Mine, just like Ryan Helsley, don't. I don't like this.

952
00:41:27,960 --> 00:41:30,000
Speaker 3: I don't do this. He's had a lot of injury

953
00:41:30,040 --> 00:41:35,240
Speaker 3: issues and the Cardinals continuously seem comfortable like grabing other guys.

954
00:41:35,280 --> 00:41:37,640
Speaker 3: We would see Gegos get it. I mean, Hicks isn't

955
00:41:37,680 --> 00:41:39,880
Speaker 3: there anymore. But I don't feel that the ground is

956
00:41:39,960 --> 00:41:43,640
Speaker 3: solid under Hellsley. Plus you've got some injury stuff, plus

957
00:41:44,080 --> 00:41:47,160
Speaker 3: you know how bad that first half of last year is.

958
00:41:47,239 --> 00:41:50,760
Speaker 3: I think the leash would be very short on Helsey

959
00:41:50,760 --> 00:41:54,200
Speaker 3: if he were to be to be screwing around early

960
00:41:54,239 --> 00:41:56,319
Speaker 3: in the year, because they do have guys like you know,

961
00:41:56,360 --> 00:41:58,560
Speaker 3: they like to go to Diego's. So I don't feel comfortable.

962
00:41:58,600 --> 00:42:01,759
Speaker 3: I do not draft Hellsley. I push him down, gimme Fairbanks,

963
00:42:01,760 --> 00:42:04,000
Speaker 3: give me quite a few other closers over him. So

964
00:42:04,040 --> 00:42:07,120
Speaker 3: he's my bus closer. Who I believe he is fifteenth

965
00:42:07,200 --> 00:42:10,080
Speaker 3: I wrote it down at fifteenth with a one eighteen ADP.

966
00:42:10,360 --> 00:42:11,719
Speaker 3: Absolutely no, thank you.

967
00:42:11,760 --> 00:42:15,640
Speaker 1: All right, So Welsh's all bus team. William contreras a catcher,

968
00:42:15,680 --> 00:42:18,680
Speaker 1: Christian Walker first, Nico Horner at tewod, Spencer Steer at third,

969
00:42:18,920 --> 00:42:22,480
Speaker 1: has Young Kim at short, Nolan Jones and Masatake Yoshita

970
00:42:22,880 --> 00:42:25,400
Speaker 1: in the outfield that he got Logan Gilbert Hajesus Lozardo

971
00:42:25,440 --> 00:42:29,080
Speaker 1: and Ryan Helsley for me, jt Realmuto over at catcher,

972
00:42:29,160 --> 00:42:32,160
Speaker 1: Rhese Hoskins, Nico Horner as well so same Zy's Welsh,

973
00:42:32,640 --> 00:42:36,120
Speaker 1: Josh Young, Trevor Story, Evan Carter, Jorge Hilaire, Blake Snell,

974
00:42:36,200 --> 00:42:38,319
Speaker 1: Coodei Singa and ken Lee Jansen. But of course we

975
00:42:38,360 --> 00:42:40,480
Speaker 1: want to hear from you. Drop your comments below in

976
00:42:40,520 --> 00:42:43,399
Speaker 1: the YouTube channel. Tell us who your big busts are

977
00:42:43,520 --> 00:42:47,080
Speaker 1: of twenty twenty four, and you just might win yourself

978
00:42:47,360 --> 00:42:51,480
Speaker 1: a Fantasy Baseball Championship Belt, the Ultimate belt from Trophy

979
00:42:51,480 --> 00:42:53,319
Speaker 1: Smack for your league this year. You can keep it

980
00:42:53,320 --> 00:42:55,400
Speaker 1: for yourself or you can give it away to somebody

981
00:42:55,480 --> 00:42:57,680
Speaker 1: wins your league gets up to you, depending on how

982
00:42:57,760 --> 00:43:00,839
Speaker 1: you feel how philanthropic you might be. Again, you can't

983
00:43:00,840 --> 00:43:03,160
Speaker 1: be in the contest if you don't subscribe to the

984
00:43:03,200 --> 00:43:06,120
Speaker 1: Fancy Pros MLB channel. Drop your comments below and don't

985
00:43:06,160 --> 00:43:08,640
Speaker 1: forget to ring that bend notifications so you know every

986
00:43:08,680 --> 00:43:11,080
Speaker 1: time a piece of content drops here on the channel

987
00:43:11,360 --> 00:43:13,080
Speaker 1: before you know it. Leading Off Live will be here

988
00:43:13,120 --> 00:43:15,880
Speaker 1: every single day. And don't forget run your mock drafts

989
00:43:15,920 --> 00:43:19,960
Speaker 1: over at draft Wizard Fanacybros dot Com slash mock. Also,

990
00:43:20,040 --> 00:43:22,680
Speaker 1: the draftkit is live, it's free, it's there for you.

991
00:43:23,000 --> 00:43:24,680
Speaker 1: And of course, as Welsh as talking about, you can

992
00:43:24,760 --> 00:43:26,520
Speaker 1: use some of these cheat sheets and all these insights

993
00:43:26,680 --> 00:43:28,480
Speaker 1: and all the strategies. Welsh and I are putting out

994
00:43:28,520 --> 00:43:31,880
Speaker 1: content as is our entire fantasy baseball team over at

995
00:43:31,880 --> 00:43:33,960
Speaker 1: Fantasypros dot com, so'll be sure to check all that

996
00:43:34,040 --> 00:43:34,680
Speaker 1: out as well.

997
00:43:34,880 --> 00:43:36,360
Speaker 2: That'll do it for us, but the story of the

998
00:43:36,400 --> 00:43:39,440
Speaker 2: game goes on for the Welsh. I'm Joey P. We'll

999
00:43:39,480 --> 00:43:40,640
Speaker 2: see you next time kids.

1000
00:43:41,160 --> 00:43:53,200
Speaker 3: Bye,