1 00:00:15,396 --> 00:00:22,196 Speaker 1: Pushkin from Pushkin Industries. This is Deep Background, the show 2 00:00:22,236 --> 00:00:25,436 Speaker 1: where we explore the stories behind the stories in the news. 3 00:00:25,956 --> 00:00:30,396 Speaker 1: I'm Noah Feldman. Here in the US, coronavirus seems to 4 00:00:30,436 --> 00:00:34,356 Speaker 1: be spreading steadily. Now. I know we cover this in 5 00:00:34,396 --> 00:00:37,916 Speaker 1: a special episode last week with Mark Lipsitch, But for me, 6 00:00:38,476 --> 00:00:42,876 Speaker 1: this whole pandemic issue is still very much front of mind, 7 00:00:43,636 --> 00:00:46,116 Speaker 1: and it feels like most people I've talked to over 8 00:00:46,116 --> 00:00:49,796 Speaker 1: the last few days are thinking pretty much the same thing. 9 00:00:51,036 --> 00:00:54,316 Speaker 1: As of my taping this on Monday night, ten states 10 00:00:54,396 --> 00:01:00,276 Speaker 1: have now reported cases Arizona, California, Florida, Illinois, Massachusetts, Oregon, 11 00:01:00,476 --> 00:01:05,076 Speaker 1: Rhode Island, Washington, Wisconsin, and New York. With its geographical spread, 12 00:01:05,156 --> 00:01:07,796 Speaker 1: that list tells you that pretty shortly it'll be all 13 00:01:07,876 --> 00:01:11,516 Speaker 1: fifty states that have cases. But in China, where the 14 00:01:11,556 --> 00:01:15,396 Speaker 1: epidemic first erupted, the outbreak, at least for the moment, 15 00:01:15,756 --> 00:01:20,876 Speaker 1: appears appears to finally be slowing down. About a week ago, 16 00:01:21,036 --> 00:01:24,316 Speaker 1: as that process was beginning, I spoke to Ian Johnson, 17 00:01:24,636 --> 00:01:28,196 Speaker 1: a Pulitzer Prize winning journalist who's based in Beijing. I 18 00:01:28,236 --> 00:01:31,676 Speaker 1: asked him what life is like in a city where 19 00:01:31,756 --> 00:01:35,396 Speaker 1: everybody is sheltering in place, all twenty million of them 20 00:01:36,396 --> 00:01:40,236 Speaker 1: in Tell me what the mood is among the people 21 00:01:40,316 --> 00:01:45,516 Speaker 1: you speak to with regard to coronavirus. Well, there are 22 00:01:45,556 --> 00:01:49,156 Speaker 1: some cities in China where for a couple of weeks, 23 00:01:49,156 --> 00:01:52,676 Speaker 1: although things are loosening up a bit now, they had 24 00:01:52,796 --> 00:01:57,956 Speaker 1: people under complete lockdown where you couldn't leave your housing 25 00:01:58,036 --> 00:02:02,916 Speaker 1: compound without permission, or sometimes families could only leave their 26 00:02:02,916 --> 00:02:06,636 Speaker 1: housing compound once every couple of days to go shopping 27 00:02:06,716 --> 00:02:10,156 Speaker 1: or something like that, where all the park sort of closed. 28 00:02:11,036 --> 00:02:13,516 Speaker 1: In Beijing, which is of course a big city, so 29 00:02:13,556 --> 00:02:15,876 Speaker 1: it's even hard to generalize in Beijing, but it's a 30 00:02:15,916 --> 00:02:20,396 Speaker 1: little easier the parks are open, and of course in 31 00:02:20,436 --> 00:02:24,076 Speaker 1: the capital, buying groceries and so on is no problem. 32 00:02:24,516 --> 00:02:28,076 Speaker 1: And I guess also the thing in Beijing, the government's 33 00:02:28,116 --> 00:02:31,276 Speaker 1: influence is probably at its strongest, just like probably in 34 00:02:31,316 --> 00:02:35,916 Speaker 1: any capital city. So I think overall in Beijing, the 35 00:02:35,996 --> 00:02:39,876 Speaker 1: sense I get is that people are they're getting a 36 00:02:39,916 --> 00:02:42,956 Speaker 1: little frustrated. They're feeling that boy has been going on 37 00:02:43,036 --> 00:02:46,956 Speaker 1: for a while. The government's asking us not to meet anyone, 38 00:02:47,156 --> 00:02:49,316 Speaker 1: not to go out. But how long are we supposed 39 00:02:49,316 --> 00:02:52,916 Speaker 1: to do this? I think when it started. It started 40 00:02:52,996 --> 00:02:55,356 Speaker 1: right around Chinese New Year, which is a time when 41 00:02:55,396 --> 00:02:59,196 Speaker 1: people tend to be more inwardly focused anyway, visiting family members, 42 00:02:59,796 --> 00:03:01,996 Speaker 1: and so it became sort of like a really long 43 00:03:02,196 --> 00:03:04,596 Speaker 1: Thanksgiving weekend or something like that, which is good or 44 00:03:04,636 --> 00:03:06,436 Speaker 1: bad depending on how you're feeling about your family at 45 00:03:06,436 --> 00:03:09,076 Speaker 1: the end of Thanksgiving weekend exactly, you know, sort of 46 00:03:09,156 --> 00:03:11,956 Speaker 1: again the weekend from hell. And I think that's what 47 00:03:11,996 --> 00:03:13,596 Speaker 1: it's going to become for some people, because this long 48 00:03:13,596 --> 00:03:16,636 Speaker 1: weekend's gone into two weeks and now it's a month, 49 00:03:17,916 --> 00:03:19,636 Speaker 1: and people are start of wondering, well, when's this going 50 00:03:19,676 --> 00:03:21,436 Speaker 1: to end? In one sense is in the government that 51 00:03:21,476 --> 00:03:23,796 Speaker 1: there are people asking that question. Also, even if for 52 00:03:23,796 --> 00:03:26,436 Speaker 1: another reason than GDP reasons like when can the economy 53 00:03:26,516 --> 00:03:29,276 Speaker 1: get going again? So I think there's a little bit 54 00:03:29,316 --> 00:03:33,556 Speaker 1: of frustration and percolating up. The frustration makes perfect sense 55 00:03:33,556 --> 00:03:36,516 Speaker 1: to me. This is sort of fascinating that almost precisely 56 00:03:36,556 --> 00:03:40,036 Speaker 1: at the moment that you're describing people in Beijing thinking 57 00:03:40,196 --> 00:03:43,036 Speaker 1: can this be over? Already? In much of the rest 58 00:03:43,036 --> 00:03:45,956 Speaker 1: of the world, people are waking up to think, oh 59 00:03:45,996 --> 00:03:49,036 Speaker 1: my goodness, this might just be getting started. Do you 60 00:03:49,036 --> 00:03:51,076 Speaker 1: think that in Beijing there just haven't been a large 61 00:03:51,156 --> 00:03:53,596 Speaker 1: number of reported cases, so people don't have a sense 62 00:03:53,636 --> 00:03:56,236 Speaker 1: of the immediacy of the danger. Yeah, I think it's 63 00:03:56,236 --> 00:03:58,316 Speaker 1: partly about but I think the government also set this 64 00:03:58,476 --> 00:04:01,116 Speaker 1: up wrong. The government set this up as a quick 65 00:04:01,476 --> 00:04:05,676 Speaker 1: crisis that it could manage and come out successful, where 66 00:04:05,676 --> 00:04:08,596 Speaker 1: they were going to put the country into lockdown, implement 67 00:04:08,596 --> 00:04:12,236 Speaker 1: these your onian measures for two weeks or four weeks, 68 00:04:12,436 --> 00:04:15,036 Speaker 1: and in some ways, statistically we are You see the 69 00:04:15,156 --> 00:04:19,476 Speaker 1: rate of increase in China has gone way down. But 70 00:04:19,556 --> 00:04:23,156 Speaker 1: also as the country gets back to work, people are 71 00:04:23,196 --> 00:04:25,636 Speaker 1: going to come into contact with each other. You can't 72 00:04:25,716 --> 00:04:30,076 Speaker 1: have even Hubei Province can't stay indefinitely locked down. This 73 00:04:30,116 --> 00:04:33,116 Speaker 1: would be almost like the entire Midwest. This would be 74 00:04:33,116 --> 00:04:37,756 Speaker 1: like Chicago plus Illinois plus maybe Michigan to So to 75 00:04:37,796 --> 00:04:40,356 Speaker 1: get a sense of the overall economic impact of Hubei 76 00:04:40,436 --> 00:04:43,476 Speaker 1: Province right at the crossroads of the country being locked down. 77 00:04:43,836 --> 00:04:46,716 Speaker 1: That can't go on forever, and so it's going to spread. 78 00:04:47,036 --> 00:04:50,116 Speaker 1: They're going to be other centers of the epidemic, and 79 00:04:50,236 --> 00:04:53,316 Speaker 1: the government hasn't set people up for this. The messaging 80 00:04:53,356 --> 00:04:54,916 Speaker 1: is sort of off. It's that it's going to be 81 00:04:54,956 --> 00:04:58,036 Speaker 1: over by now, and these draconian measures are going to stop, 82 00:04:58,636 --> 00:05:00,356 Speaker 1: but I don't know what they're going to do when 83 00:05:00,396 --> 00:05:02,996 Speaker 1: this continues on. I think everybody now has come to 84 00:05:03,036 --> 00:05:05,796 Speaker 1: the realization in the sort of expert community that this 85 00:05:05,916 --> 00:05:09,356 Speaker 1: is going to continue on for months to come. The 86 00:05:09,436 --> 00:05:14,476 Speaker 1: Chinese government is pretty sophisticated in managing the way that 87 00:05:14,996 --> 00:05:18,116 Speaker 1: its own citizens make sense of what's going on in 88 00:05:18,156 --> 00:05:20,556 Speaker 1: the world, and I'm wondering if there isn't a pivot 89 00:05:20,596 --> 00:05:24,316 Speaker 1: point available to them as it becomes more of a 90 00:05:24,316 --> 00:05:27,796 Speaker 1: global phenomenon. Is there a way for the Chinese government 91 00:05:27,796 --> 00:05:30,836 Speaker 1: to say to their own citizens, Look, this is bigger 92 00:05:30,836 --> 00:05:33,636 Speaker 1: than just us, and we're just doing what everyone else 93 00:05:33,636 --> 00:05:34,876 Speaker 1: in the world is going to have to do, and 94 00:05:34,916 --> 00:05:37,556 Speaker 1: this is an unfortunate normal, But don't look at us 95 00:05:37,556 --> 00:05:40,156 Speaker 1: and say, why didn't you solve this? After all, no 96 00:05:40,316 --> 00:05:43,436 Speaker 1: government in the world has a simple or straightforward solution 97 00:05:43,516 --> 00:05:45,996 Speaker 1: to this problem. It's nature. And in a way, might 98 00:05:46,036 --> 00:05:48,556 Speaker 1: that in a sense almost let them off the hook. Yeah, 99 00:05:48,596 --> 00:05:51,596 Speaker 1: I think that would work better if the government weren't 100 00:05:51,756 --> 00:05:55,476 Speaker 1: partly culpable for the outbreak, and they also just haven't 101 00:05:55,476 --> 00:05:58,876 Speaker 1: been able to downplay that that is still kind of 102 00:05:59,396 --> 00:06:04,636 Speaker 1: popularly understood on some level that there were these whistleblowers, 103 00:06:04,796 --> 00:06:08,276 Speaker 1: they did try to say something, and at least local 104 00:06:08,316 --> 00:06:11,876 Speaker 1: officials were responsible for the outbreak. Now I think the 105 00:06:11,876 --> 00:06:13,516 Speaker 1: government's going to try to just push all onto the 106 00:06:13,516 --> 00:06:16,436 Speaker 1: local officials. But I think there is on some level 107 00:06:16,436 --> 00:06:19,596 Speaker 1: and Moong more sophisticated people or not maybe more sophisticated 108 00:06:19,596 --> 00:06:22,356 Speaker 1: the wrong world, but maybe in a narrower group of people, 109 00:06:22,716 --> 00:06:25,236 Speaker 1: there's an understanding that the government was also responsible. So 110 00:06:25,276 --> 00:06:27,636 Speaker 1: that makes it harder to make that case. I think, 111 00:06:28,436 --> 00:06:30,636 Speaker 1: is it clear that had the early whistle blower has 112 00:06:30,676 --> 00:06:34,916 Speaker 1: been taken more seriously, that could have actually contained the virus, 113 00:06:34,916 --> 00:06:38,916 Speaker 1: because the sense that I have from speaking to epidemiologists 114 00:06:39,036 --> 00:06:41,716 Speaker 1: is that as we learn more about how the virus 115 00:06:41,756 --> 00:06:43,756 Speaker 1: spreads and whether you can spread the virus when you 116 00:06:43,796 --> 00:06:46,876 Speaker 1: don't have any symptoms at all, it's at least possible 117 00:06:47,236 --> 00:06:50,476 Speaker 1: that nothing that the government could have done would really 118 00:06:50,516 --> 00:06:52,996 Speaker 1: have been able to contain this well. I think that's right. 119 00:06:53,596 --> 00:06:56,716 Speaker 1: I think the government sort of hasn't made that argument yet, 120 00:06:56,756 --> 00:06:59,636 Speaker 1: but it's probably true. And I mean, even this heroic 121 00:06:59,676 --> 00:07:03,596 Speaker 1: guy who died the face of the whistleblower Leeu and Leang, 122 00:07:03,756 --> 00:07:07,436 Speaker 1: the doctor whose image is now ubiquitous even in Chinese 123 00:07:07,476 --> 00:07:12,316 Speaker 1: social media. He wasn't a real whistleblower. He was telling 124 00:07:12,756 --> 00:07:16,596 Speaker 1: a social media group of friends of classmates about this. 125 00:07:17,116 --> 00:07:19,596 Speaker 1: It wasn't as if he had filed a formal complaint 126 00:07:19,596 --> 00:07:23,396 Speaker 1: to the government or gone on widespread social media about this. 127 00:07:23,476 --> 00:07:26,556 Speaker 1: So it just shows, of course how ubiquitous the government 128 00:07:26,596 --> 00:07:28,716 Speaker 1: censorship is that they can even see what you're saying 129 00:07:28,716 --> 00:07:34,356 Speaker 1: to your classmates. But he hadn't actually started a process 130 00:07:34,396 --> 00:07:37,236 Speaker 1: that could have resulted in anything, even if the government 131 00:07:37,236 --> 00:07:39,916 Speaker 1: had been open to it. So yeah, I think that's 132 00:07:39,956 --> 00:07:42,196 Speaker 1: that's probably true. It's not clear at all that that 133 00:07:42,276 --> 00:07:44,796 Speaker 1: would have changed things, but at least there's a sense 134 00:07:44,836 --> 00:07:47,116 Speaker 1: in terms of trying to make win the pr battle 135 00:07:47,516 --> 00:07:50,596 Speaker 1: that the government's partly responsible for it. What is your 136 00:07:50,716 --> 00:07:55,316 Speaker 1: daily life like in light of the current situation. Well, 137 00:07:55,396 --> 00:07:59,316 Speaker 1: my daily life, like other people's, is sharply constrained. So 138 00:08:00,316 --> 00:08:03,716 Speaker 1: it's very hard to go and meet people because for 139 00:08:03,796 --> 00:08:06,996 Speaker 1: the people who are buying the government line, they're still like, oh, 140 00:08:07,076 --> 00:08:09,676 Speaker 1: we better not meet because the government's told we shouldn't 141 00:08:09,676 --> 00:08:12,716 Speaker 1: read people. And then even for the people who aren't 142 00:08:12,756 --> 00:08:16,356 Speaker 1: binding the government line, is getting harder and harder to 143 00:08:16,396 --> 00:08:19,196 Speaker 1: get into people's housing compounds, because if you just go 144 00:08:19,276 --> 00:08:22,436 Speaker 1: to somebody's apartment block and to try to get in, 145 00:08:22,556 --> 00:08:25,116 Speaker 1: you can't even necessarily get into the building. And then 146 00:08:25,156 --> 00:08:28,516 Speaker 1: with most restaurants and cafes closed, the most you can 147 00:08:28,516 --> 00:08:30,716 Speaker 1: do is go for a walk in the park or 148 00:08:30,716 --> 00:08:33,756 Speaker 1: something like that with somebody. So it's hard to get 149 00:08:33,836 --> 00:08:37,156 Speaker 1: as much information as before. It's sort of fascinating because 150 00:08:37,156 --> 00:08:41,796 Speaker 1: it draws out the ways in which a quarantine works 151 00:08:41,876 --> 00:08:47,956 Speaker 1: alongside technological control to really shift the way information spreads. 152 00:08:48,396 --> 00:08:50,476 Speaker 1: That sounds as if for someone like you who talks 153 00:08:50,516 --> 00:08:52,836 Speaker 1: to people about things that they may not want the 154 00:08:52,836 --> 00:08:55,596 Speaker 1: government to hear, there's actually a real limitation on your 155 00:08:55,596 --> 00:08:58,916 Speaker 1: ability to gather information. Yes, it is hard to talk 156 00:08:58,956 --> 00:09:01,556 Speaker 1: to people. I mean I think when you read things 157 00:09:01,596 --> 00:09:03,636 Speaker 1: on social media, you really have to parse things. And 158 00:09:03,676 --> 00:09:06,356 Speaker 1: I find a look at an article on social media, 159 00:09:06,356 --> 00:09:07,756 Speaker 1: and one of the things I try to do because 160 00:09:07,756 --> 00:09:12,596 Speaker 1: things get erased so quickly, is I'll quickly send myself 161 00:09:12,716 --> 00:09:14,916 Speaker 1: on wa chat. There'd be things through these articles that 162 00:09:14,996 --> 00:09:18,156 Speaker 1: people write, they sort of self published someone wa chat, 163 00:09:18,276 --> 00:09:19,876 Speaker 1: and so I'll see something like this, some sort of 164 00:09:19,956 --> 00:09:22,236 Speaker 1: edgypiece about how the governments in trouble and so on 165 00:09:22,316 --> 00:09:26,516 Speaker 1: and so forth, and I'll quickly save the URL and 166 00:09:26,676 --> 00:09:29,036 Speaker 1: printed to PDF for something like that, so that if 167 00:09:29,036 --> 00:09:30,996 Speaker 1: it's gone, I still have a record of it. But 168 00:09:31,036 --> 00:09:32,836 Speaker 1: I sometimes have to do that really quickly, because if 169 00:09:32,876 --> 00:09:34,036 Speaker 1: I sort of say, oh, I'll do that in a 170 00:09:34,036 --> 00:09:36,116 Speaker 1: couple of hours, I go back and reopen the URL 171 00:09:36,236 --> 00:09:39,636 Speaker 1: and it's been closed. So the government's pretty quick on that, 172 00:09:39,636 --> 00:09:43,876 Speaker 1: although sometimes what I'm surprised is that not everything is erased. 173 00:09:44,516 --> 00:09:47,396 Speaker 1: And I just had an article that somebody sent me 174 00:09:47,916 --> 00:09:50,916 Speaker 1: the other day on how nothing will nothing can be 175 00:09:50,956 --> 00:09:54,596 Speaker 1: the same after the coronavirus, and partly they were talking 176 00:09:54,676 --> 00:09:57,716 Speaker 1: about how the government had to allow a free or 177 00:09:57,716 --> 00:10:01,636 Speaker 1: flow of information. They avoided key words that would cause 178 00:10:01,916 --> 00:10:05,036 Speaker 1: the bots to censor the article, like freedom of speech 179 00:10:05,676 --> 00:10:08,476 Speaker 1: and stuff like that, but I was surprised that that 180 00:10:08,556 --> 00:10:11,636 Speaker 1: hasn't been eras yet. Do you have a theory about why. 181 00:10:12,876 --> 00:10:17,036 Speaker 1: I think partly the censorship works on two levels. One 182 00:10:17,116 --> 00:10:18,516 Speaker 1: is they have bots to just go through and so 183 00:10:18,556 --> 00:10:20,996 Speaker 1: if you say something like you know, the Nobel Prize 184 00:10:21,356 --> 00:10:24,956 Speaker 1: winning dissident to Leosha boy, you put those three characters 185 00:10:24,956 --> 00:10:27,316 Speaker 1: out there boom, your piece is probably going to be 186 00:10:27,356 --> 00:10:31,476 Speaker 1: automatically erased. But I think also things that are a 187 00:10:31,516 --> 00:10:36,276 Speaker 1: little harder to tell from just if if you're just 188 00:10:36,396 --> 00:10:38,996 Speaker 1: using AI, maybe you need a human eye on it. 189 00:10:39,396 --> 00:10:41,636 Speaker 1: I think the flood of articles right now is such 190 00:10:41,716 --> 00:10:44,596 Speaker 1: that probably the censors are just a little bit behind 191 00:10:44,636 --> 00:10:47,236 Speaker 1: on their work. You know, that's probably the only explaination. 192 00:10:47,316 --> 00:10:49,116 Speaker 1: I don't think it means that there's a split in 193 00:10:49,156 --> 00:10:51,876 Speaker 1: the government and that therefore the information is getting out 194 00:10:51,876 --> 00:10:55,396 Speaker 1: because someone in the propaganda ministry, etcetera, etcetera. I don't think. 195 00:10:55,396 --> 00:10:57,956 Speaker 1: I don't think that's happening. In light of what you 196 00:10:58,036 --> 00:11:02,276 Speaker 1: have described as genuine mismanagement of the crisis from the 197 00:11:02,276 --> 00:11:04,756 Speaker 1: standpoint of the government, and in light of the fact 198 00:11:04,756 --> 00:11:07,756 Speaker 1: that this is, you know, almost certainly the most significant 199 00:11:07,836 --> 00:11:11,556 Speaker 1: threat to the country that Chi Jinping has faced during 200 00:11:11,596 --> 00:11:14,356 Speaker 1: his entire time in office. What do you think are 201 00:11:14,436 --> 00:11:19,716 Speaker 1: likely to be the longer term consequences for his relatively 202 00:11:20,436 --> 00:11:27,036 Speaker 1: still young transformation of the political codes of the country. Well, 203 00:11:27,196 --> 00:11:29,716 Speaker 1: I hate to say it depends, but it sort of 204 00:11:30,236 --> 00:11:32,676 Speaker 1: depends on how quickly we can pull out of this. 205 00:11:33,036 --> 00:11:36,236 Speaker 1: It's like the government has sort of put the patient 206 00:11:36,356 --> 00:11:39,116 Speaker 1: in a coma to try to solve the illness, and 207 00:11:39,156 --> 00:11:40,396 Speaker 1: now I was going to try to pull it out 208 00:11:40,396 --> 00:11:43,036 Speaker 1: of the coma. And if that works and the illness 209 00:11:42,836 --> 00:11:47,396 Speaker 1: is cured literally and metaphorically, then I think the government 210 00:11:47,396 --> 00:11:50,196 Speaker 1: can still say it was a big success. You know, 211 00:11:50,276 --> 00:11:53,196 Speaker 1: we took firm, resolute measures, and it was difficult. And 212 00:11:53,316 --> 00:11:55,516 Speaker 1: GDP's taken a hit and probably will be you know, 213 00:11:55,596 --> 00:11:57,676 Speaker 1: zero in the first quarter or something like that, but 214 00:11:58,356 --> 00:12:01,196 Speaker 1: this was a difficult situation. It was a national crisis, 215 00:12:01,196 --> 00:12:02,436 Speaker 1: and we did the right thing and so on and 216 00:12:02,516 --> 00:12:05,836 Speaker 1: so forth. But if this goes on, and if we 217 00:12:05,956 --> 00:12:08,996 Speaker 1: do indeed have another wave of cases, which a lot 218 00:12:08,996 --> 00:12:11,636 Speaker 1: of people are expecting as the country gets back to work, 219 00:12:11,956 --> 00:12:14,436 Speaker 1: and if there's maybe another wave again in the autumn, 220 00:12:14,476 --> 00:12:17,996 Speaker 1: which is sometimes a possibility in these patterns, and the 221 00:12:18,076 --> 00:12:20,916 Speaker 1: numbers keep going up and up and up, I think 222 00:12:20,956 --> 00:12:24,116 Speaker 1: it will be hard for this to not be seen 223 00:12:24,436 --> 00:12:28,636 Speaker 1: as another really major crisis. The memory of the SARS 224 00:12:28,716 --> 00:12:30,956 Speaker 1: crisis of two thousand and two and two thousand and 225 00:12:30,996 --> 00:12:34,996 Speaker 1: three is still surprisingly fresh for people who were saying 226 00:12:35,676 --> 00:12:39,916 Speaker 1: over thirty or thirty five years of age, people still 227 00:12:39,916 --> 00:12:42,636 Speaker 1: refer to it all the time, and that it wasn't 228 00:12:42,636 --> 00:12:45,956 Speaker 1: really handled maybe all that well. So I wonder whether 229 00:12:45,996 --> 00:12:47,436 Speaker 1: this isn't going to be another one. In fact, I 230 00:12:47,476 --> 00:12:49,076 Speaker 1: think it's going to be hard for it not to 231 00:12:49,116 --> 00:12:52,396 Speaker 1: be a case like that, unless this turns into some 232 00:12:52,556 --> 00:12:56,876 Speaker 1: full blown real disaster or with tens of thousands of 233 00:12:56,956 --> 00:12:59,716 Speaker 1: people dead or something. I don't think this is going 234 00:12:59,796 --> 00:13:02,916 Speaker 1: to be a Chernobyl type event, which is the other 235 00:13:02,996 --> 00:13:07,316 Speaker 1: scenario that people look at. It's amazing how the government 236 00:13:07,356 --> 00:13:10,556 Speaker 1: can control these narratives. Thirty one years ago there was 237 00:13:10,596 --> 00:13:14,596 Speaker 1: a Channeman Square crackdown when hundreds and hundreds of people 238 00:13:14,596 --> 00:13:16,556 Speaker 1: were gunned down to death in the center of Beijing. 239 00:13:16,916 --> 00:13:20,156 Speaker 1: The government came out of that wounded and damaged, but 240 00:13:20,276 --> 00:13:22,636 Speaker 1: still okay, and was able to keep control. I think 241 00:13:23,276 --> 00:13:26,396 Speaker 1: one always has to be careful in China about saying 242 00:13:26,476 --> 00:13:29,196 Speaker 1: this is a turning point that will shake people's faith 243 00:13:29,196 --> 00:13:33,956 Speaker 1: in the system. People's stability to believe in the system again, 244 00:13:34,076 --> 00:13:38,916 Speaker 1: just like in any country, is amazingly resilient. So I'm 245 00:13:38,916 --> 00:13:41,156 Speaker 1: hesitant to say that this will be a turning point 246 00:13:41,236 --> 00:13:44,636 Speaker 1: or shake thing. So what you say it makes enormous sense, 247 00:13:44,796 --> 00:13:48,036 Speaker 1: especially with respect to the overall system of Communist Party rule. 248 00:13:48,116 --> 00:13:50,236 Speaker 1: I guess what I'm wondering about is whether, at just 249 00:13:50,316 --> 00:13:52,796 Speaker 1: a more micro level it might have an effect on 250 00:13:53,276 --> 00:13:57,396 Speaker 1: Shijun Ping's own bid to say, remain in power you 251 00:13:57,596 --> 00:14:00,516 Speaker 1: much longer than his predecessors have done. Do you see 252 00:14:00,516 --> 00:14:04,476 Speaker 1: it having a micro effect on those internal party developments 253 00:14:04,476 --> 00:14:08,356 Speaker 1: and debates. I think it can. I think the problem 254 00:14:08,876 --> 00:14:12,956 Speaker 1: with is that he hasn't also really handled this very well. 255 00:14:12,996 --> 00:14:16,556 Speaker 1: I don't think this is I'm not trying to project 256 00:14:16,556 --> 00:14:19,276 Speaker 1: what I think a Western politician would have or should 257 00:14:19,276 --> 00:14:20,996 Speaker 1: have done in this case, in other words, that they 258 00:14:21,036 --> 00:14:24,516 Speaker 1: should be out glad handing people or visiting all the 259 00:14:24,556 --> 00:14:29,636 Speaker 1: emergency wars and so on. But the only visibility that 260 00:14:29,676 --> 00:14:33,436 Speaker 1: he's shown at all was to go to one neighborhood 261 00:14:33,596 --> 00:14:36,116 Speaker 1: in Beijing, which is not badly affected at all. The 262 00:14:36,156 --> 00:14:39,516 Speaker 1: city and the neighborhood is not particularly affected, so that 263 00:14:39,836 --> 00:14:45,716 Speaker 1: is not much visibility. He's made speeches and said sort 264 00:14:45,716 --> 00:14:47,396 Speaker 1: of the right thing. He recently said that this was 265 00:14:47,436 --> 00:14:52,236 Speaker 1: a grave and serious crisis to the country. But he's 266 00:14:52,316 --> 00:14:54,636 Speaker 1: normally at the forefront of these kind of big things, 267 00:14:54,636 --> 00:14:58,596 Speaker 1: and it looks, I think even for casual viewers, it 268 00:14:58,636 --> 00:15:03,036 Speaker 1: looks as if he's not willing to take responsibility because 269 00:15:03,036 --> 00:15:05,756 Speaker 1: it is such a problem, and he's let the premier, 270 00:15:06,196 --> 00:15:08,996 Speaker 1: who is supposed to be in charge of the leavers 271 00:15:09,116 --> 00:15:12,396 Speaker 1: of the actual bureaucracy and government, he's let him take 272 00:15:12,396 --> 00:15:14,916 Speaker 1: a greater role. Although even he hasn't been really out 273 00:15:14,916 --> 00:15:17,796 Speaker 1: there every day. So I guess there are different models 274 00:15:17,796 --> 00:15:20,836 Speaker 1: of authoritarian rule. There's a sort of Putin model, which 275 00:15:20,956 --> 00:15:24,476 Speaker 1: is he's you be out there probably on talk shows 276 00:15:24,516 --> 00:15:28,596 Speaker 1: and fielding questions and stuff like that. Teaching thing would 277 00:15:28,596 --> 00:15:31,076 Speaker 1: never be like that anyway, but he's been, I think, 278 00:15:31,156 --> 00:15:35,716 Speaker 1: quite noticeably absent from the day to day managing of 279 00:15:35,756 --> 00:15:39,716 Speaker 1: a crisis. One story that's gotten a fair amount of 280 00:15:39,756 --> 00:15:44,316 Speaker 1: coverage outside of China is the Chinese government's decision to 281 00:15:44,596 --> 00:15:49,516 Speaker 1: expel three journalists associated with the Wall Street Journal in 282 00:15:49,636 --> 00:15:55,556 Speaker 1: retaliation for the headline of an op ed editorial piece. 283 00:15:55,956 --> 00:16:00,276 Speaker 1: The headline referred to China as the sick man of Asia, 284 00:16:00,516 --> 00:16:03,996 Speaker 1: a reference to a nineteenth century formulation that was actually 285 00:16:04,196 --> 00:16:07,076 Speaker 1: mostly used about Turkey in the nineteenth century, although I 286 00:16:07,156 --> 00:16:10,196 Speaker 1: learned in this context it was also sometimes said about China. 287 00:16:10,356 --> 00:16:12,916 Speaker 1: My first question is, are you surprised by the government's 288 00:16:12,916 --> 00:16:15,716 Speaker 1: decision to do that? Well, I am surprised. You know, 289 00:16:15,756 --> 00:16:17,876 Speaker 1: I could see where they would expel perhaps one person, 290 00:16:17,916 --> 00:16:20,876 Speaker 1: but three seems a lot. It must also be tied 291 00:16:20,916 --> 00:16:25,476 Speaker 1: to the State Department's decision to declare Chinese media companies 292 00:16:25,476 --> 00:16:28,596 Speaker 1: to be the agents of foreign influence or something like that, 293 00:16:28,596 --> 00:16:31,996 Speaker 1: that they're essentially working for the state, which is accurate, 294 00:16:32,276 --> 00:16:34,876 Speaker 1: but that that was sort of maybe in Chinese do 295 00:16:34,996 --> 00:16:37,836 Speaker 1: a provocation or throwing the gauntlet down, and so they 296 00:16:37,876 --> 00:16:39,516 Speaker 1: had to say something. So I think the number of 297 00:16:39,516 --> 00:16:42,436 Speaker 1: people probably went up from one to three. The government 298 00:16:42,476 --> 00:16:45,356 Speaker 1: had been asking for several days for some sort of 299 00:16:45,396 --> 00:16:49,356 Speaker 1: an apology, the people in the journal even before the expulsion, 300 00:16:49,916 --> 00:16:53,036 Speaker 1: the people on the news side of it, the reporters 301 00:16:53,036 --> 00:16:55,076 Speaker 1: in the bureau, many people were sort of appalled at it. 302 00:16:55,716 --> 00:16:59,236 Speaker 1: So I think that it was something that the government 303 00:16:59,276 --> 00:17:01,236 Speaker 1: probably felt it had to do something not to be 304 00:17:01,276 --> 00:17:03,156 Speaker 1: sort of a conspiracy theorist, because this is sort of 305 00:17:03,196 --> 00:17:05,756 Speaker 1: hard to prove this, but I think this also plays 306 00:17:05,956 --> 00:17:08,676 Speaker 1: wonderfully into the government's narrative. I mean, this was something 307 00:17:08,716 --> 00:17:12,076 Speaker 1: that they could blast out on social media. I don't 308 00:17:12,076 --> 00:17:14,836 Speaker 1: think this term sick man of Asia. It was to 309 00:17:14,916 --> 00:17:17,916 Speaker 1: me sort of a face plant, a grown sort of like, Oh, 310 00:17:17,996 --> 00:17:22,356 Speaker 1: I can't believe they did that headline. I mean, I 311 00:17:22,756 --> 00:17:25,236 Speaker 1: worked the Walsta Journal for many years. I know the 312 00:17:25,876 --> 00:17:28,996 Speaker 1: opinion page very well, and they like to provoke. They 313 00:17:29,076 --> 00:17:32,596 Speaker 1: like to make people to get up and notice something, 314 00:17:32,676 --> 00:17:34,876 Speaker 1: and so it's not atypical for them. But when I 315 00:17:34,916 --> 00:17:37,116 Speaker 1: saw that, I was okay. So I was a little shocked, 316 00:17:37,116 --> 00:17:40,556 Speaker 1: but I was even more shocked by the government's reaction. 317 00:17:40,596 --> 00:17:42,636 Speaker 1: And I think it's a nice way for them to 318 00:17:43,756 --> 00:17:46,476 Speaker 1: shift attention away from the crisis and be able to 319 00:17:46,756 --> 00:17:50,196 Speaker 1: blame a foreign country for kicking China while it's down 320 00:17:50,316 --> 00:17:53,916 Speaker 1: and stuff like that. I think it's this outrage has 321 00:17:53,956 --> 00:17:58,596 Speaker 1: been really fomented by the government and probably they're quite 322 00:17:58,636 --> 00:18:00,316 Speaker 1: happy for this sort of thing. And this might also 323 00:18:00,356 --> 00:18:04,396 Speaker 1: be a precursor of a strategy in the future if 324 00:18:04,396 --> 00:18:06,476 Speaker 1: the crisis spins out of control and we feel a 325 00:18:06,516 --> 00:18:10,636 Speaker 1: need to somehow sort of divert attention and blame foreigners, etc. 326 00:18:11,876 --> 00:18:15,076 Speaker 1: Going back to your face palm reaction. Was your reaction 327 00:18:15,116 --> 00:18:17,236 Speaker 1: because you thought to yourself, Oh, my goodness, this is 328 00:18:17,236 --> 00:18:21,516 Speaker 1: going to make the Chinese government crazy? Or was your reaction? Boy, 329 00:18:21,636 --> 00:18:24,996 Speaker 1: that's actually kind of offensive, because, as I discovered after 330 00:18:25,036 --> 00:18:27,956 Speaker 1: a little poll of my friends and family. Most people 331 00:18:27,996 --> 00:18:30,836 Speaker 1: are not going to get their reference to, you know, 332 00:18:30,996 --> 00:18:34,876 Speaker 1: nineteenth century European treatment of the Ottoman Empire, and so 333 00:18:34,996 --> 00:18:37,156 Speaker 1: most people are just going to see it as a 334 00:18:37,276 --> 00:18:40,676 Speaker 1: kind of you know, almost quasi racist statement that China 335 00:18:40,796 --> 00:18:44,556 Speaker 1: is sick in some way because of the coronavirus. Well, 336 00:18:44,636 --> 00:18:47,396 Speaker 1: I mean, first of all, my face plant failing was like, 337 00:18:47,436 --> 00:18:50,236 Speaker 1: this is a stupid cliche. I can't believe they're using that. 338 00:18:51,476 --> 00:18:55,316 Speaker 1: But you know, I think when countries are down. Historically, 339 00:18:55,316 --> 00:19:00,076 Speaker 1: when they've been down, they often look to analogies to 340 00:19:00,156 --> 00:19:02,436 Speaker 1: the human body. You know, if you go back to 341 00:19:02,436 --> 00:19:04,796 Speaker 1: say Germany in the mid nineteenth century, there was this 342 00:19:05,596 --> 00:19:10,356 Speaker 1: movement among nationalists who wanted to unite Germany to literally 343 00:19:10,556 --> 00:19:15,276 Speaker 1: improve the physical strength of people to get out there 344 00:19:15,316 --> 00:19:19,716 Speaker 1: and climb mountains and do outdoors activities and things like that, 345 00:19:20,156 --> 00:19:23,316 Speaker 1: to strengthen the physical body of the people, and that 346 00:19:23,316 --> 00:19:28,676 Speaker 1: would strengthen the body politic and the national character and 347 00:19:28,756 --> 00:19:30,756 Speaker 1: so on and so forth. And so I think it 348 00:19:30,836 --> 00:19:33,396 Speaker 1: is sort of on a deeper level, it is sort 349 00:19:33,396 --> 00:19:35,996 Speaker 1: of insulting to people to imply that their country is 350 00:19:36,036 --> 00:19:39,956 Speaker 1: sick and that it has some sort of fundamental illness. 351 00:19:40,716 --> 00:19:43,276 Speaker 1: I know, the article itself didn't make that the case 352 00:19:43,316 --> 00:19:44,876 Speaker 1: exactly like that. It was saying there was something wrong 353 00:19:44,916 --> 00:19:48,196 Speaker 1: with the political system. But you can see where people 354 00:19:48,276 --> 00:19:51,116 Speaker 1: might take it if they're not really reading the article anyway, 355 00:19:51,116 --> 00:19:53,356 Speaker 1: and they're just reading this stuff on social media third 356 00:19:53,356 --> 00:19:55,276 Speaker 1: hand and fourth hand and so on and so forth, 357 00:19:56,316 --> 00:19:58,516 Speaker 1: that they would say, hey, you know, China is not sick. 358 00:19:59,076 --> 00:20:01,396 Speaker 1: And the whole story the columnist party is pushed over 359 00:20:01,436 --> 00:20:03,636 Speaker 1: the past seven years is that the Chinese people have 360 00:20:03,796 --> 00:20:07,116 Speaker 1: stood up. That's what Mao said in nineteen forty nine 361 00:20:07,596 --> 00:20:10,596 Speaker 1: at think Dat of Heavenly Peace in downtown Beijing. This 362 00:20:10,636 --> 00:20:13,436 Speaker 1: is his famous of saying at the founding the People's Republic, 363 00:20:13,476 --> 00:20:15,796 Speaker 1: we've stood up. We're on our own two feet. And 364 00:20:15,796 --> 00:20:17,996 Speaker 1: then a few years later they fight the US to 365 00:20:18,076 --> 00:20:21,036 Speaker 1: a down still in the Korean War. So now to 366 00:20:21,076 --> 00:20:24,516 Speaker 1: sort of imply that China is weak and sick, it 367 00:20:24,756 --> 00:20:28,836 Speaker 1: is a bit of a provocation to many people. So 368 00:20:28,876 --> 00:20:33,436 Speaker 1: before the coronavirus story came to dominate your coverage and 369 00:20:33,796 --> 00:20:38,076 Speaker 1: the West's consumption of news about China, you were doing 370 00:20:38,196 --> 00:20:42,716 Speaker 1: amazing work in explaining the complexities of the Hong Kong 371 00:20:43,196 --> 00:20:46,676 Speaker 1: protests to the rest of us, and I was following 372 00:20:46,716 --> 00:20:49,676 Speaker 1: your coverage of that extremely closely, and in fact, when 373 00:20:50,436 --> 00:20:52,996 Speaker 1: my producer Lydia Jina first reached out to you, we thought, well, 374 00:20:53,036 --> 00:20:56,476 Speaker 1: we'll talk to Ian about Hong Kong. Presumably Hong Kong 375 00:20:56,556 --> 00:20:58,516 Speaker 1: is going to have to undergo the same kind of 376 00:20:58,556 --> 00:21:01,596 Speaker 1: nobody in the streets, nobody talking to each other, shelter 377 00:21:01,676 --> 00:21:06,236 Speaker 1: in place arrangement as other major cities in China have 378 00:21:06,276 --> 00:21:09,596 Speaker 1: been undergoing. What is that going to do to the 379 00:21:09,676 --> 00:21:13,916 Speaker 1: protest movement that otherwise was sort of continuing. Well, I 380 00:21:13,916 --> 00:21:16,276 Speaker 1: think in the short term, this, of course will make 381 00:21:16,316 --> 00:21:18,396 Speaker 1: it hard to have protests if you're not allowed to 382 00:21:18,396 --> 00:21:20,956 Speaker 1: be out on the streets. But I think it feeds 383 00:21:21,076 --> 00:21:23,356 Speaker 1: much more strongly, much more importantly. I think it feeds 384 00:21:23,356 --> 00:21:26,276 Speaker 1: into this overall feeling that we don't want to be 385 00:21:26,396 --> 00:21:31,356 Speaker 1: part of this governing system which is sort of not 386 00:21:31,476 --> 00:21:33,276 Speaker 1: on our level. I mean, I think there's this feeling 387 00:21:33,276 --> 00:21:36,076 Speaker 1: among Hong Kong people at some basic level that we're 388 00:21:36,196 --> 00:21:40,796 Speaker 1: much more advanced. We've got a modern, functioning, cosmopolitan city 389 00:21:40,836 --> 00:21:43,396 Speaker 1: that we built. Yes, it was a British colony, but 390 00:21:43,436 --> 00:21:46,396 Speaker 1: we Hong Kong people, we built the city. These are 391 00:21:46,556 --> 00:21:51,236 Speaker 1: our freedoms and so on, and we don't want to 392 00:21:51,236 --> 00:21:53,156 Speaker 1: lose this, and we don't want to be part of 393 00:21:53,196 --> 00:21:55,516 Speaker 1: this sort of messed up system north of the border 394 00:21:55,996 --> 00:22:00,396 Speaker 1: that isn't able to handle a public health emergency without 395 00:22:00,436 --> 00:22:04,516 Speaker 1: having a giant conniption fit that you know, has all 396 00:22:04,516 --> 00:22:06,116 Speaker 1: these other problems. So I think they're going to look 397 00:22:06,156 --> 00:22:09,556 Speaker 1: at this as further proof of the incompatibility of Hong 398 00:22:09,596 --> 00:22:13,716 Speaker 1: Kong with the mainland, and when people in the mainland 399 00:22:13,716 --> 00:22:16,116 Speaker 1: get frustrated about those people south of the board are 400 00:22:16,156 --> 00:22:21,436 Speaker 1: protesting all the time, those uppity, no good Hong Kong people, great, 401 00:22:22,076 --> 00:22:24,676 Speaker 1: thankless Hong kongress. One of the first things people in 402 00:22:24,716 --> 00:22:26,716 Speaker 1: the mainland say is let's just cut off the water 403 00:22:26,716 --> 00:22:29,796 Speaker 1: supply and see how long that works, or the food 404 00:22:29,836 --> 00:22:32,716 Speaker 1: supply and so on and so forth. So you know, 405 00:22:32,716 --> 00:22:35,516 Speaker 1: the two places are really closely linked, of course, and 406 00:22:36,116 --> 00:22:38,436 Speaker 1: of course we all are, and Hong Kong's just going 407 00:22:38,516 --> 00:22:40,956 Speaker 1: to catch this earlier. But we're seeing this spread to 408 00:22:41,036 --> 00:22:47,516 Speaker 1: other neighboring countries South Korea, obviously, Japan. This shows probably 409 00:22:47,556 --> 00:22:49,476 Speaker 1: the well, it'll make it hard for people in Hong 410 00:22:49,516 --> 00:22:52,076 Speaker 1: Kong to avoid what's going on. No matter how much 411 00:22:52,116 --> 00:22:55,716 Speaker 1: they want to independent of the virus, was it your 412 00:22:55,756 --> 00:23:00,796 Speaker 1: sense that the protests were losing steam or that they 413 00:23:00,796 --> 00:23:04,316 Speaker 1: had just sort of entered a phase of institutionalization where 414 00:23:04,756 --> 00:23:07,076 Speaker 1: people were accustomed to them and working around them to 415 00:23:07,116 --> 00:23:08,356 Speaker 1: the extent that they could, and they were going to 416 00:23:08,436 --> 00:23:12,916 Speaker 1: remain a challenging facet of life. We've had a series 417 00:23:12,916 --> 00:23:15,196 Speaker 1: of protests over the past say ten years. They come, 418 00:23:15,276 --> 00:23:17,596 Speaker 1: they go, they come, they go, but they seem to 419 00:23:17,716 --> 00:23:20,116 Speaker 1: just it SEMs like a roller coaster ride, but maybe 420 00:23:20,116 --> 00:23:24,556 Speaker 1: where the altitude keeps increasing, so you're just you are 421 00:23:24,876 --> 00:23:27,356 Speaker 1: dipping down a little bit, but you go up to 422 00:23:27,396 --> 00:23:28,996 Speaker 1: newer highs. You go down a little bit, but you 423 00:23:29,036 --> 00:23:32,036 Speaker 1: go up again. And I think we might see that again, 424 00:23:32,516 --> 00:23:35,796 Speaker 1: maybe after the coronavirus ends, if there's no end to 425 00:23:35,836 --> 00:23:40,036 Speaker 1: the political crisis, if there's no accommodation from the side 426 00:23:40,076 --> 00:23:43,836 Speaker 1: of Beijing, that will probably see a new wave of protests, 427 00:23:44,636 --> 00:23:48,356 Speaker 1: perhaps later this year or next year. Last question for 428 00:23:48,396 --> 00:23:51,516 Speaker 1: you in I know you go back and forth frequently 429 00:23:52,116 --> 00:23:55,636 Speaker 1: between Beijing and London. Can you still do that? What 430 00:23:55,876 --> 00:23:57,596 Speaker 1: will happen to you when you go to London? Are 431 00:23:57,636 --> 00:23:59,316 Speaker 1: you allowed to fight to London? You have to stay 432 00:23:59,316 --> 00:24:01,596 Speaker 1: in quarantine. You know what's going to happen. Well, I 433 00:24:01,596 --> 00:24:04,276 Speaker 1: am planning to go to London. There's no, for example, 434 00:24:04,276 --> 00:24:07,276 Speaker 1: British Airway flights, but there is Air China, which is 435 00:24:07,316 --> 00:24:10,316 Speaker 1: the national carrier and probably a great financial loss, is 436 00:24:10,316 --> 00:24:14,316 Speaker 1: still flying to countries around the world. So I still 437 00:24:14,356 --> 00:24:19,076 Speaker 1: have an Air China flight booked, and unless things change dramatically, 438 00:24:19,636 --> 00:24:22,036 Speaker 1: I guess I'll be out of here. But yeah, I'm 439 00:24:22,036 --> 00:24:25,316 Speaker 1: going to self quarantine myself. I have a family member 440 00:24:25,316 --> 00:24:27,316 Speaker 1: on the outskirts of London who has a big country 441 00:24:27,316 --> 00:24:29,236 Speaker 1: house and has given me a wing of the place 442 00:24:29,796 --> 00:24:31,876 Speaker 1: and just said you can just hang out there for 443 00:24:31,916 --> 00:24:34,196 Speaker 1: two weeks. And so I'm going to do that and 444 00:24:34,276 --> 00:24:38,036 Speaker 1: go for walks in the English countryside and do writing 445 00:24:38,036 --> 00:24:39,996 Speaker 1: on my computer and so on, and then I'll be 446 00:24:40,716 --> 00:24:42,596 Speaker 1: clean and then I'll come back to China again in 447 00:24:42,636 --> 00:24:44,436 Speaker 1: a few months when I can get more work done, 448 00:24:44,476 --> 00:24:46,636 Speaker 1: because basically the problem here is it's really hard to 449 00:24:46,676 --> 00:24:49,156 Speaker 1: do any research, to go out and talk to people 450 00:24:49,716 --> 00:24:52,916 Speaker 1: because the country is in such lockdown. Well, I hope 451 00:24:52,916 --> 00:24:56,436 Speaker 1: you're extended English country weekend with your own wing of 452 00:24:56,516 --> 00:24:59,516 Speaker 1: the house is an enjoyable one, but more importantly, and 453 00:24:59,796 --> 00:25:03,156 Speaker 1: I hope you stay healthy and well yourself. And thank 454 00:25:03,156 --> 00:25:04,996 Speaker 1: you for speaking to me, and thank you for your 455 00:25:04,996 --> 00:25:09,476 Speaker 1: steady stream of insightful analysis of events in China. Bye, 456 00:25:09,476 --> 00:25:11,276 Speaker 1: thank you, thank you very much. It's been a pleasure. 457 00:25:17,596 --> 00:25:20,036 Speaker 1: We caught up with Ian when he had just returned 458 00:25:20,076 --> 00:25:23,516 Speaker 1: in the UK. Here's what he says. Yes, I've arrived 459 00:25:23,556 --> 00:25:26,876 Speaker 1: in the UK. It was shockingly easy. I thought a 460 00:25:26,916 --> 00:25:30,076 Speaker 1: guard's regiment might forcibly take our temperature, or at least 461 00:25:30,076 --> 00:25:32,436 Speaker 1: ask of our contact information in case someone had to 462 00:25:32,476 --> 00:25:35,236 Speaker 1: track down those who had contact with an infected person. 463 00:25:35,516 --> 00:25:38,716 Speaker 1: But nothing of the sort happened. I arrived when through 464 00:25:38,716 --> 00:25:41,596 Speaker 1: an automated passport control and was in a car in 465 00:25:41,636 --> 00:25:45,076 Speaker 1: a few minutes. Now that's a little bit upsetting. If 466 00:25:45,076 --> 00:25:47,436 Speaker 1: that's how you traveled from China to the UK right now, 467 00:25:48,316 --> 00:25:51,516 Speaker 1: that may have consequences for the rest of the world. Ian, however, 468 00:25:51,756 --> 00:25:54,396 Speaker 1: is a good citizen and a good sport. He's now 469 00:25:54,436 --> 00:25:57,356 Speaker 1: in the empty wing of his relatives country home south 470 00:25:57,356 --> 00:26:00,276 Speaker 1: of London. He's going for long walks through the English 471 00:26:00,276 --> 00:26:04,876 Speaker 1: countryside while avoiding pubs, swimming pools and any other place 472 00:26:05,116 --> 00:26:08,756 Speaker 1: where people congregate. It's nice work. If you can get it. 473 00:26:09,596 --> 00:26:12,156 Speaker 1: We'll be back with this week's playback in just a moment, 474 00:26:13,236 --> 00:26:21,276 Speaker 1: and now our playback. That's the sound of clapping in Doha, 475 00:26:21,436 --> 00:26:24,436 Speaker 1: the capital of Qatar, where a representative of the US 476 00:26:24,516 --> 00:26:28,636 Speaker 1: government and a representative of the Afghan Taliban signed a 477 00:26:28,716 --> 00:26:33,636 Speaker 1: peace agreement this weekend. The clapping notwithstanding, this is an 478 00:26:33,636 --> 00:26:38,556 Speaker 1: agreement that's already facing very significant challenges, and those challenges 479 00:26:38,596 --> 00:26:42,676 Speaker 1: are only going to get greater. To understand why, you 480 00:26:42,716 --> 00:26:45,916 Speaker 1: have to begin with a painful fact about the nearly 481 00:26:45,956 --> 00:26:51,516 Speaker 1: twenty year US engagement in Afghanistan. By any ordinary military standard, 482 00:26:51,836 --> 00:26:56,436 Speaker 1: it ultimately looks like a defeat. It didn't start that way. 483 00:26:56,636 --> 00:26:59,596 Speaker 1: When the United States first came into Afghanistan, it very 484 00:26:59,676 --> 00:27:03,636 Speaker 1: effectively and very rapidly made the Taliban leave the country, 485 00:27:03,916 --> 00:27:07,756 Speaker 1: and that, after all, was the initial reason for the invasion. 486 00:27:08,116 --> 00:27:10,916 Speaker 1: The idea was number one, get rid of the Taliban. 487 00:27:11,276 --> 00:27:14,116 Speaker 1: Number two, catch as many members of Al Qaida as 488 00:27:14,156 --> 00:27:17,076 Speaker 1: it's possible to get our hands on. The trouble was 489 00:27:17,396 --> 00:27:23,036 Speaker 1: that happened almost too quickly, and then gradually imperceptibly over time, 490 00:27:23,276 --> 00:27:27,796 Speaker 1: the US mission in Afghanistan changed. Ultimately, the argument was 491 00:27:27,916 --> 00:27:30,396 Speaker 1: that the United States should make an effort of some 492 00:27:30,516 --> 00:27:35,596 Speaker 1: kind to produce some kind of stable, functioning, quasi democratic 493 00:27:35,676 --> 00:27:40,076 Speaker 1: government in Afghanistan, and yet the government that presently exists 494 00:27:40,236 --> 00:27:45,236 Speaker 1: in the country is very very loosely democratic and only 495 00:27:45,276 --> 00:27:48,636 Speaker 1: stable in the loosest sense of the word. In fact, 496 00:27:48,796 --> 00:27:53,396 Speaker 1: most observers believe that should the United States actually withdraw 497 00:27:53,476 --> 00:27:56,676 Speaker 1: its troops from Afghanistan, as it has promised eventually to 498 00:27:56,716 --> 00:27:59,356 Speaker 1: do in this agreement, that that government would have a 499 00:27:59,396 --> 00:28:03,796 Speaker 1: great deal of trouble, withstanding a serious attack from the 500 00:28:03,836 --> 00:28:07,196 Speaker 1: Taliban now in order to get there, the so called 501 00:28:07,196 --> 00:28:10,156 Speaker 1: agreement between the United States and the talis An Agreement, 502 00:28:10,156 --> 00:28:13,316 Speaker 1: which notably does not yet include Afghanistan as a party, 503 00:28:14,476 --> 00:28:17,836 Speaker 1: says that the Taliban are supposed to negotiate a peace 504 00:28:17,876 --> 00:28:22,236 Speaker 1: with the Afghan government and put down their arms. From there, 505 00:28:22,396 --> 00:28:25,516 Speaker 1: we're supposed to move on to an eventual US withdrawal 506 00:28:25,756 --> 00:28:28,756 Speaker 1: of all of its troops. But from the standpoint of 507 00:28:28,756 --> 00:28:32,596 Speaker 1: the Taliban, they don't have any really strong reason to 508 00:28:32,636 --> 00:28:35,516 Speaker 1: put down their arms if it would require them to 509 00:28:35,556 --> 00:28:38,236 Speaker 1: form a compromise with the current government that would not 510 00:28:38,316 --> 00:28:41,636 Speaker 1: be to the Taliban's liking. The reason for that is 511 00:28:41,636 --> 00:28:43,956 Speaker 1: that once the United States has said publicly that it 512 00:28:43,996 --> 00:28:48,396 Speaker 1: intends to leave Afghanistan, its leverage to force the Taliban 513 00:28:48,476 --> 00:28:51,916 Speaker 1: to do anything other than whatever it wants is reduced 514 00:28:52,196 --> 00:28:55,876 Speaker 1: very drastically. After all, all along in this war, the 515 00:28:55,956 --> 00:28:58,236 Speaker 1: only thing the United States has ever been able to 516 00:28:58,276 --> 00:29:00,356 Speaker 1: do when it wanted the Taliban to listen to it 517 00:29:00,436 --> 00:29:04,316 Speaker 1: was to continue to fight the Taliban. That's why, within 518 00:29:04,396 --> 00:29:08,156 Speaker 1: a few days of the initial agreement, the Taliban demanded 519 00:29:08,236 --> 00:29:10,556 Speaker 1: that if the Afghan government wanted to negotiate with it, 520 00:29:10,756 --> 00:29:14,436 Speaker 1: the Afghan government would have to free five thousand Taliban prisoners. 521 00:29:15,036 --> 00:29:18,036 Speaker 1: For their part, the Afghan government is terrified about the 522 00:29:18,036 --> 00:29:20,916 Speaker 1: possibility of an actual US withdrawal, so it's in the 523 00:29:20,996 --> 00:29:25,836 Speaker 1: Afghan government's interest to delay that as long as possible. Consequently, 524 00:29:26,036 --> 00:29:28,756 Speaker 1: the Afghan simply said, we're not handing over the five 525 00:29:28,796 --> 00:29:31,876 Speaker 1: thousand Taliban prisoners, which means that at least as of 526 00:29:31,996 --> 00:29:34,636 Speaker 1: right now, the Taliban on the one hand and the 527 00:29:34,676 --> 00:29:37,796 Speaker 1: government of Afghanistan on the other hand, are not even 528 00:29:37,876 --> 00:29:42,396 Speaker 1: on speaking terms. Technically, without an agreement between them, the 529 00:29:42,476 --> 00:29:45,676 Speaker 1: United States cannot withdraw and therefore the agreement between the 530 00:29:45,796 --> 00:29:48,516 Speaker 1: United States and the Taliban might turn out to be 531 00:29:48,636 --> 00:29:53,956 Speaker 1: more symbolic than actual. Nevertheless, this agreement probably will have 532 00:29:54,236 --> 00:29:58,316 Speaker 1: a major long term consequence, and that long term consequence 533 00:29:58,516 --> 00:30:03,476 Speaker 1: is primarily in the US domestic context. Donald Trump, in 534 00:30:03,516 --> 00:30:06,916 Speaker 1: the run up to a reelection, seems fully prepared to 535 00:30:06,956 --> 00:30:09,516 Speaker 1: do what none of his predecessors were willing to do 536 00:30:09,996 --> 00:30:14,036 Speaker 1: and essentially admit defeat in Afghanistan by agreeing to do 537 00:30:14,116 --> 00:30:18,156 Speaker 1: a deal with the Taliban. Barack Obama was not prepared 538 00:30:18,196 --> 00:30:20,596 Speaker 1: to do that, even in a second term when he 539 00:30:20,676 --> 00:30:24,196 Speaker 1: himself was not running for reelection. George W. Bush wasn't 540 00:30:24,196 --> 00:30:26,556 Speaker 1: prepared to do it in either of his terms as president. 541 00:30:27,276 --> 00:30:31,676 Speaker 1: Both of them ended up owning the American involvement in Afghanistan, 542 00:30:31,956 --> 00:30:35,356 Speaker 1: and the history books will so record. Donald Trump, on 543 00:30:35,356 --> 00:30:38,956 Speaker 1: the other hand, despite to a great extent continuing the 544 00:30:38,996 --> 00:30:41,796 Speaker 1: Obama administration's policies in the first part of his term, 545 00:30:42,356 --> 00:30:45,876 Speaker 1: has actually now signaled a willingness to bite the bullet 546 00:30:46,156 --> 00:30:48,796 Speaker 1: to say that the United States actually must get out, 547 00:30:49,516 --> 00:30:52,516 Speaker 1: and Trump will now carry the historical legacy of the 548 00:30:52,556 --> 00:30:56,636 Speaker 1: willingness to withdraw even if the United States doesn't withdraw 549 00:30:57,036 --> 00:31:00,796 Speaker 1: in either of his potentially two terms in office. I 550 00:31:00,916 --> 00:31:03,556 Speaker 1: hate to say it, but that's actually a major gift 551 00:31:03,636 --> 00:31:06,396 Speaker 1: that Donald Trump is making to the United States and 552 00:31:06,636 --> 00:31:10,596 Speaker 1: also to a future president, any future president, and it's 553 00:31:10,636 --> 00:31:12,596 Speaker 1: no secret that my view is that it would be 554 00:31:12,596 --> 00:31:14,836 Speaker 1: better for it to be anyone other than Donald Trump. 555 00:31:14,996 --> 00:31:18,356 Speaker 1: In twenty twenty, we'll be able to continue the Trump 556 00:31:18,476 --> 00:31:21,156 Speaker 1: policy of saying that the United States has signed a 557 00:31:21,236 --> 00:31:24,756 Speaker 1: deal and is prepared to leave the country. That will 558 00:31:24,796 --> 00:31:27,636 Speaker 1: be a tremendous advantage because it will mean that that 559 00:31:27,756 --> 00:31:30,956 Speaker 1: president will not have to say we agreed to lose 560 00:31:30,956 --> 00:31:34,876 Speaker 1: the war on my watch. There is, however, a final coda, 561 00:31:35,076 --> 00:31:39,156 Speaker 1: as there almost always is. No US president is going 562 00:31:39,196 --> 00:31:42,276 Speaker 1: to want to preside over scenes in Kabble that are 563 00:31:42,316 --> 00:31:46,116 Speaker 1: reminiscent of the famous scenes of the US withdrawal from 564 00:31:46,116 --> 00:31:49,636 Speaker 1: Saigon in nineteen seventy five. No one will want to 565 00:31:49,676 --> 00:31:52,676 Speaker 1: be present in the United States with helicopters flying out 566 00:31:52,716 --> 00:31:56,236 Speaker 1: with the last US personnel and tens or hundreds or 567 00:31:56,396 --> 00:31:59,756 Speaker 1: thousands or tens of thousands of Afghans begging to be 568 00:31:59,836 --> 00:32:04,476 Speaker 1: on those helicopters. And yet that scenario is entirely possible 569 00:32:04,836 --> 00:32:07,836 Speaker 1: if the US government ultimately withdraws troops and if the 570 00:32:07,876 --> 00:32:10,876 Speaker 1: Taliban move on the city in a serious military way. 571 00:32:11,676 --> 00:32:14,636 Speaker 1: The agreement does give Donald Trump the flexibility to say that, 572 00:32:14,716 --> 00:32:18,156 Speaker 1: under those circumstances with a Taliban army heading to Cobble, 573 00:32:18,396 --> 00:32:21,236 Speaker 1: that the United States would not withdraw, but it seems 574 00:32:21,356 --> 00:32:24,516 Speaker 1: entirely possible that Donald Trump would be willing to do so, 575 00:32:24,716 --> 00:32:28,396 Speaker 1: and to bear even that price. A remarkable consequence of 576 00:32:28,436 --> 00:32:31,716 Speaker 1: Trump's confidence that his base will support him almost no 577 00:32:31,756 --> 00:32:35,236 Speaker 1: matter what his apparent belief that he cannot be made 578 00:32:35,236 --> 00:32:37,796 Speaker 1: to look weak on foreign policy, no matter what his 579 00:32:37,876 --> 00:32:43,036 Speaker 1: actual policies are, and Trump's conviction probably accurate that most Americans, 580 00:32:43,196 --> 00:32:45,356 Speaker 1: even if they would feel bad in the short term 581 00:32:45,556 --> 00:32:48,436 Speaker 1: at such a painful public betrayal of the Afghan people, 582 00:32:48,716 --> 00:32:52,916 Speaker 1: are ultimately tired of this war. The upshot of all 583 00:32:52,956 --> 00:32:55,436 Speaker 1: of this as if the United States will at some 584 00:32:55,636 --> 00:32:59,236 Speaker 1: point find itself with its troops out of Afghanistan, and 585 00:32:59,316 --> 00:33:03,156 Speaker 1: the consequences for the Afghans are likely to be disastrous. 586 00:33:03,996 --> 00:33:06,236 Speaker 1: The Taliban in this piece deal did not say that 587 00:33:06,276 --> 00:33:09,596 Speaker 1: they had embraced democracy, because they haven't. They did not 588 00:33:09,676 --> 00:33:11,916 Speaker 1: say that they now support the education of girls and 589 00:33:12,036 --> 00:33:16,076 Speaker 1: young women, because they don't. They do not commit themselves 590 00:33:16,116 --> 00:33:19,276 Speaker 1: in this agreement to any future course of action other 591 00:33:19,356 --> 00:33:22,676 Speaker 1: than agreeing to talk to the Afghan government, something which 592 00:33:22,716 --> 00:33:26,276 Speaker 1: is already not happening. Ultimately, historians will look back at 593 00:33:26,316 --> 00:33:29,276 Speaker 1: the legacy of the American presence in Afghanistan and wonder 594 00:33:29,476 --> 00:33:32,716 Speaker 1: just how the United States could have gotten itself wrapped 595 00:33:32,836 --> 00:33:36,796 Speaker 1: up in a nearly twenty year war. Why They will 596 00:33:36,836 --> 00:33:41,156 Speaker 1: ask didn't the United States defeat the Taliban, catch Osama 597 00:33:41,156 --> 00:33:44,076 Speaker 1: bin Laden and then turn back to the Taliban and say, 598 00:33:44,276 --> 00:33:46,516 Speaker 1: you know what, if you want to go back to Afghanistan, 599 00:33:46,756 --> 00:33:48,756 Speaker 1: there's nothing we can do about it, and we're not 600 00:33:48,916 --> 00:33:52,996 Speaker 1: going to try and stop you. Real politique will not 601 00:33:53,196 --> 00:33:56,436 Speaker 1: answer the historians question. To make sense of how the 602 00:33:56,556 --> 00:34:00,676 Speaker 1: United States experienced the ultimate mission creep in Afghanistan, will 603 00:34:00,756 --> 00:34:04,116 Speaker 1: have to look back to the context of post September eleventh, 604 00:34:04,676 --> 00:34:07,436 Speaker 1: to the feeling in the Bush administration that the goal 605 00:34:07,476 --> 00:34:10,756 Speaker 1: of the United States should not simply be to try 606 00:34:10,796 --> 00:34:13,156 Speaker 1: to take steps against those who perpetrated the nine to 607 00:34:13,156 --> 00:34:18,036 Speaker 1: eleven attacks, but to bring about generational transformations in the 608 00:34:18,076 --> 00:34:20,956 Speaker 1: countries of the Muslim world so that such attacks would 609 00:34:20,956 --> 00:34:24,916 Speaker 1: never happen again. Those transformations turned out to be well 610 00:34:25,116 --> 00:34:28,916 Speaker 1: beyond the power of United States and probably beyond the 611 00:34:28,956 --> 00:34:33,476 Speaker 1: power of any one country. In retrospect, it all seems 612 00:34:33,516 --> 00:34:38,396 Speaker 1: so painfully obvious. At the time, a derangement syndrome far 613 00:34:38,596 --> 00:34:42,516 Speaker 1: greater than that of trumped arrangement gripped us all, myself included. 614 00:34:43,196 --> 00:34:46,436 Speaker 1: We wanted more because we the United States, thought that 615 00:34:46,436 --> 00:34:50,796 Speaker 1: the trauma we had suffered was unmatched. Unmatched trauma was 616 00:34:50,836 --> 00:34:55,156 Speaker 1: supposed to lead to unmatched realization of new plans for 617 00:34:55,196 --> 00:34:59,196 Speaker 1: a democratic Muslim world. In the end, the only people 618 00:34:59,196 --> 00:35:02,636 Speaker 1: who can make democracies in majority Muslim countries are the 619 00:35:02,716 --> 00:35:05,956 Speaker 1: people who live in those countries, and the American effort 620 00:35:06,076 --> 00:35:11,276 Speaker 1: to create democracies by the sword is definitively a historical failure. 621 00:35:13,036 --> 00:35:16,036 Speaker 1: Deep Background is brought to you by Pushkin Industries. Our 622 00:35:16,076 --> 00:35:19,396 Speaker 1: producer is Lydia gene Coott, with studio recording by Joseph 623 00:35:19,436 --> 00:35:23,516 Speaker 1: Fridman and mastering by Jason Gambrel and Jason Roskowski. Our 624 00:35:23,556 --> 00:35:26,956 Speaker 1: showrunner is Sophie mckibbon. Our theme music is composed by 625 00:35:27,036 --> 00:35:30,956 Speaker 1: Luis Gara. Special thanks to the Pushkin Brass, Malcolm Gladwell, 626 00:35:31,116 --> 00:35:34,756 Speaker 1: Jacob Weisberg, and Mia Lobel. I'm Noah Feldman. You can 627 00:35:34,796 --> 00:35:38,556 Speaker 1: follow me on Twitter at Noah r Feldman. This is 628 00:35:38,596 --> 00:35:39,436 Speaker 1: deep background