WEBVTT - Buck Brief - The Biggest Risk Trump Faces with Ryan Girdusky 0:00:11.697 --> 0:00:14.937 You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure 0:00:14.977 --> 0:00:17.977 you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or 0:00:18.017 --> 0:00:21.977 wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Buck Brief, Ryan 0:00:22.017 --> 0:00:25.737 Gerdusky in the mix. He's going to explain who's going 0:00:25.777 --> 0:00:28.017 to win the election, why they're going to win the election, 0:00:28.937 --> 0:00:30.417 all the day, to all the numbers, all the things. 0:00:30.457 --> 0:00:31.857 He's just gonna make sense of it all for us, 0:00:31.857 --> 0:00:34.257 because that's what he does. He's got the National Populist 0:00:34.297 --> 0:00:38.937 newsletter on substack, which you should all subscribe to. Let 0:00:38.937 --> 0:00:44.737 me start with let me start with this, Ryan, everything 0:00:44.737 --> 0:00:48.257 that seems to happen now, the consensus opinion quickly becomes 0:00:48.537 --> 0:00:50.257 it doesn't matter. It's not going to do anything, you 0:00:50.257 --> 0:00:52.977 know what I mean. Trump's convicted and everyone's like it 0:00:52.977 --> 0:00:55.617 doesn't matter, No one cares, Like, it's not gonna do thing. Hunter, 0:00:55.657 --> 0:01:00.137 Biden's convicted, It's not gonna matter. No, what is gonna matter? 0:01:00.177 --> 0:01:02.417 You know what I'm saying, Like, like these people who 0:01:02.937 --> 0:01:07.097 could go either way, Trump or Biden, what is going 0:01:07.137 --> 0:01:09.137 to make up their minds because it doesn't sound like 0:01:09.137 --> 0:01:11.777 any of this legal stuff will. 0:01:12.177 --> 0:01:15.457 I think the debate will matter a lot. I think 0:01:15.497 --> 0:01:18.617 that the debate will be. I think it's weird that's 0:01:18.617 --> 0:01:20.737 in June. I think it's on a purpose that it's 0:01:20.737 --> 0:01:24.617 in June. I think that the debate. 0:01:24.297 --> 0:01:27.257 Will mean something to a lot of people because it 0:01:27.337 --> 0:01:32.457 will be because expectations, mistakenly, I think by the Trump 0:01:32.497 --> 0:01:36.017 campaign are so low for Joe Biden, kind of the 0:01:36.057 --> 0:01:38.057 same way that Joe Biden made them low for Sarah 0:01:38.137 --> 0:01:39.497 Palin back in two thousand and eight. 0:01:39.897 --> 0:01:44.417 I think that if Donald Trump, but I'm sorry Joe Biden, 0:01:44.737 --> 0:01:50.337 is coherent and cognitive for just ninety straight minutes, then 0:01:50.577 --> 0:01:53.737 he will be declared the winner. Donald Trump is also 0:01:53.977 --> 0:01:56.737 very weak at debates. He's never done very well in debates, 0:01:57.057 --> 0:01:59.097 and there will be a lot of questions that the 0:01:59.137 --> 0:02:01.337 moderator is going to be a very hostile and the 0:02:01.417 --> 0:02:04.857 questions are going to be January six, and the convictions 0:02:05.417 --> 0:02:09.417 and the argument will be about Trump's character instead of 0:02:09.457 --> 0:02:14.257 Biden's time in office. And if we have eighty million 0:02:14.297 --> 0:02:17.617 people watching, that could be a very big deciding factor. 0:02:17.777 --> 0:02:20.097 It'd be the last time Joe Biden makes the first 0:02:20.097 --> 0:02:21.057 impression interesting. 0:02:21.057 --> 0:02:23.617 So you think that because I also think that generally 0:02:23.857 --> 0:02:27.217 in other circumstances, we've seen the debates don't really matter, right. 0:02:27.257 --> 0:02:32.737 I mean, Romney absolutely wipe the floor with Barack Obama 0:02:32.817 --> 0:02:35.537 back in twenty twelve in the first debate. I know 0:02:35.577 --> 0:02:37.657 the second debate was different than Candy Crowley thing, but 0:02:37.697 --> 0:02:40.937 obviously Romney got smoked, right, It wasn't even closed the election. 0:02:41.897 --> 0:02:44.217 It feels like in a lot of these debates people 0:02:44.217 --> 0:02:46.697 forget them within days of them happening. But in this case, 0:02:46.737 --> 0:02:50.297 you're telling me, if Biden does reasonably well, then the 0:02:50.337 --> 0:02:52.497 expectations are set so that will help him at least 0:02:52.537 --> 0:02:53.617 overcome the age thing. 0:02:54.337 --> 0:02:57.017 But well, the difference between the but in twenty twelve. 0:02:57.137 --> 0:03:01.857 In twenty twelve, Obama was able to market Romney very 0:03:01.897 --> 0:03:05.857 early on, so people had an opinion on Mitt Romney 0:03:05.897 --> 0:03:09.657 that was very unshakable, very hard to shake by the 0:03:09.737 --> 0:03:14.537 time that the election came rolling around. Because the two things, 0:03:14.577 --> 0:03:16.897 the two groups of people that Romney sat there and 0:03:16.937 --> 0:03:20.377 spoke to his one working class whites, which was saying 0:03:20.417 --> 0:03:22.577 to them, he took away your jobs and he shot 0:03:22.617 --> 0:03:25.017 them with in China, you can't trust them. And he 0:03:25.097 --> 0:03:29.217 spoke to Hispanics and Blacks on most of the identity 0:03:29.257 --> 0:03:31.657 issues but also healthcare. He saw it to Hispanics, I 0:03:31.657 --> 0:03:33.377 gave you healthcare, and he said to blacks, you know, 0:03:34.097 --> 0:03:36.257 keep me in office, let's keep it. Let's you know, 0:03:36.297 --> 0:03:39.857 let's win one for our people. And that mattered immensely 0:03:39.937 --> 0:03:42.457 to those three groups of people. And by the time 0:03:42.497 --> 0:03:45.257 November rolled around, but I was the first debate rolled around, 0:03:45.577 --> 0:03:48.697 there was a very deep feeling among working class whites 0:03:48.737 --> 0:03:49.177 in Iowa. 0:03:49.257 --> 0:03:50.377 Remember Rodney lost. 0:03:50.177 --> 0:03:54.657 Iowa, Iowa, Ohio, he lost Ohio, and it sat there 0:03:54.697 --> 0:03:56.297 and said, you can't trust this guy. 0:03:56.337 --> 0:03:57.937 He shipped your jobs to China. 0:03:58.217 --> 0:04:01.017 Well, I have the thing that the votemember vulture capital. 0:04:01.057 --> 0:04:02.857 That was the thing that instead of venture capital they 0:04:02.897 --> 0:04:03.977 called the vulture capital. 0:04:04.537 --> 0:04:06.377 And yeah, he was very good. 0:04:06.617 --> 0:04:12.017 The problem with private equity stuff is it actually looks 0:04:12.017 --> 0:04:15.217 pretty bad sometimes, right, I mean the whole like cut 0:04:15.257 --> 0:04:18.137 costs a lot of people levered up with debt, pay 0:04:18.177 --> 0:04:20.217 yourself a huge amount of money and then leave this 0:04:20.377 --> 0:04:25.057 like limping mutilated company to kind of like that's not good. 0:04:25.457 --> 0:04:26.217 Is not good. 0:04:26.217 --> 0:04:27.697 Also, Romney was impersonal. 0:04:27.737 --> 0:04:29.737 I remember that. On the campaign show One Time Romney 0:04:29.737 --> 0:04:31.937 in twenty twelve, they asked him like he was supposed 0:04:31.937 --> 0:04:33.857 to be doing some kind of like, I don't know, 0:04:33.937 --> 0:04:36.337 like crowd work, and they were like he was like 0:04:36.457 --> 0:04:38.137 trying to guess people's ethnicities. 0:04:38.297 --> 0:04:39.457 It was very strange. 0:04:39.497 --> 0:04:41.697 And then he got a puff piece interview and they said, 0:04:41.737 --> 0:04:42.857 what do you like to do for fun? He said, 0:04:42.857 --> 0:04:45.337 I like to be jolly. He just was always very remote. 0:04:45.417 --> 0:04:46.937 He was always afraid of embarrassing. 0:04:46.937 --> 0:04:49.137 He's a weirdo, and as we know he's I mean 0:04:49.177 --> 0:04:52.057 the fact. I mean, for me, Covid was like a 0:04:52.057 --> 0:04:54.337 a binary You got it right, You're a person we 0:04:54.377 --> 0:04:56.617 can trust, or you didn't, and you're like you're like 0:04:56.617 --> 0:04:59.217 the enemy. Also, I feel that way about the BLM, 0:04:59.377 --> 0:05:02.417 especially if you're supposedly a Republican. If you thought that 0:05:02.457 --> 0:05:05.217 the BLM riots were like justified or whatever, you're you're 0:05:06.017 --> 0:05:09.577 like dead to me forever. Yeah. Yeah, so he falls 0:05:09.577 --> 0:05:11.137 in it. Remember he was more marching. He was like 0:05:11.177 --> 0:05:14.337 I'm here because black lives matter. With the mask on 0:05:14.377 --> 0:05:16.777 his face. I was like, oh my god, what happened 0:05:16.777 --> 0:05:19.497 to mid r The absolute worst? Okay, but but back 0:05:19.537 --> 0:05:22.457 to the upcoming debate, which is it's like two weeks, 0:05:22.457 --> 0:05:23.897 isn't it. I'm just realizing it isn't. 0:05:23.697 --> 0:05:27.137 Like two weeks and two weeks like that. Yeah, yeah, 0:05:28.497 --> 0:05:30.497 you see step. 0:05:31.977 --> 0:05:35.457 Is saying that all that has to really be asked 0:05:35.617 --> 0:05:37.377 of Trump. Well, the most important thing to be asked 0:05:37.417 --> 0:05:40.337 if Trump is who won the twenty twenty election? On 0:05:40.417 --> 0:05:42.177 that stage, how do you. 0:05:42.097 --> 0:05:42.977 Think it's gonna be hard? 0:05:43.057 --> 0:05:46.937 That's that's gonna hurt? It is most people, most Americans 0:05:46.977 --> 0:05:50.657 think that Joe Biden legitimately won that election. I know Republicans, 0:05:50.857 --> 0:05:52.777 but most Americans do. 0:05:52.857 --> 0:05:54.297 If if you think. 0:05:54.137 --> 0:05:56.097 Trump is going to say on that stage where I 0:05:56.097 --> 0:05:57.697 started review, do you think Trump is going to say 0:05:57.697 --> 0:05:59.457 I want Like he's just gonna come out as he 0:06:00.377 --> 0:06:00.697 is going to. 0:06:00.697 --> 0:06:03.577 Say it, what is it going to say? I guess look, guys, no, 0:06:03.737 --> 0:06:07.657 I came to the conclusion I want just to be fair. 0:06:07.937 --> 0:06:10.417 Another politician would talk around it and be like, well 0:06:10.457 --> 0:06:13.057 like what really the election now was the one that 0:06:13.177 --> 0:06:14.297 you know what I mean, they would do that, But 0:06:14.417 --> 0:06:16.617 like He'll just be like, I want it. It was beautiful, 0:06:17.097 --> 0:06:19.377 wanted by ten million votes. Like he's going to do that, right, 0:06:19.417 --> 0:06:20.097 He's going to do that. 0:06:21.297 --> 0:06:24.217 Yeah, he's gonna sit there and say I won the election. 0:06:24.337 --> 0:06:25.937 He's gonna be flat out be like, yeah, I won 0:06:26.017 --> 0:06:30.297 the election, and I was stolen and mail in ballads 0:06:30.337 --> 0:06:33.537 and truth the vote, and I can write his freaking 0:06:33.617 --> 0:06:36.817 answer for him. He's not gonna change. And if enough 0:06:36.857 --> 0:06:39.497 of the questions, if the first forty five minutes are 0:06:39.617 --> 0:06:44.457 conviction J six stole an election, Okay, by the time 0:06:44.537 --> 0:06:46.457 that half the audience is tuned out, they'll be like, 0:06:46.537 --> 0:06:50.177 so the border's a mess, let's talk about that. And 0:06:50.937 --> 0:06:54.897 you know, and you know, Donald Trump is gonna I 0:06:55.617 --> 0:06:57.537 don't know if he's living with a pivot or move 0:06:57.577 --> 0:07:00.137 it forward or to have an answer. 0:07:00.217 --> 0:07:02.897 But if I was on the campaigner now, I'd already 0:07:02.897 --> 0:07:03.697 be working with him. 0:07:03.617 --> 0:07:06.137 And saying, let's do some debate prep, buddy, because you 0:07:06.217 --> 0:07:09.337 cannot screw this one up, because no one will hear 0:07:09.337 --> 0:07:11.937 another debate until the end of summer. This is the 0:07:12.017 --> 0:07:14.937 last memory they have until they go off and to 0:07:15.737 --> 0:07:17.657 the beach or to the mountains wherever they go for 0:07:17.697 --> 0:07:18.097 the summer. 0:07:18.617 --> 0:07:20.897 And this is it. 0:07:21.057 --> 0:07:23.257 This will be the last first impression they have. And 0:07:23.377 --> 0:07:27.457 early voting starts September in some states, so you are 0:07:27.497 --> 0:07:31.817 looking at a very very very you know, tight couple 0:07:32.097 --> 0:07:34.217 of months for this is the last time people ever 0:07:34.257 --> 0:07:36.897 hear from you. And I think, I think the debate 0:07:36.937 --> 0:07:39.337 will matter, especially given that there has been a post 0:07:39.417 --> 0:07:41.857 conviction bounce about one point, which is not that much, 0:07:42.217 --> 0:07:47.337 but it will matter enough in the swing States. And 0:07:47.777 --> 0:07:49.977 I mean, Donald has a ton of money now thanks 0:07:50.017 --> 0:07:53.137 to the conviction, but he's really got to put it 0:07:53.177 --> 0:07:55.457 to good use, and he's really got to make this 0:07:55.857 --> 0:08:01.497 election about Joe Biden's presidency, not about Donald Trump's personality. Because, 0:08:02.257 --> 0:08:04.977 much to what anyone doesn't want to leave, Donald Trump 0:08:05.017 --> 0:08:08.897 is not personally likable. His policies are personally liked, but 0:08:08.977 --> 0:08:10.777 he himself is not likable. 0:08:10.897 --> 0:08:12.497 You're gonna get you're gonna get be yelled at by 0:08:12.537 --> 0:08:16.097 everybody watching his podcast. I actually think it's I know, 0:08:16.137 --> 0:08:16.657 you don't care. 0:08:16.737 --> 0:08:19.817 Yeah, I think he's very funny. He's funny to a 0:08:19.937 --> 0:08:21.217 certain people who like him. 0:08:21.257 --> 0:08:24.137 If you grew up and you loved Al Bundy, I'm 0:08:24.177 --> 0:08:26.457 married with children, you probably like Donald Trump. 0:08:26.937 --> 0:08:28.857 Uh, that's probably your sense of humor. 0:08:29.017 --> 0:08:31.177 If you thought that he was a really gross person, 0:08:31.217 --> 0:08:33.057 it was a lot of funny. You probably don't think 0:08:33.097 --> 0:08:36.177 Donald Trump's funny. It's just there's a there's there's certain 0:08:36.217 --> 0:08:38.817 group of people that do really find him entertaining and enjoyable. 0:08:39.217 --> 0:08:41.097 Uh, it's not. It's not everybody, though. 0:08:41.337 --> 0:08:43.137 Let's I want to talk about because I don't want 0:08:43.137 --> 0:08:45.937 everyone to just leave democrat weakness in different swing states 0:08:45.937 --> 0:08:48.337 in a moment here, we're gonna we're gonna reel everybody 0:08:48.337 --> 0:08:51.817 back in talking about Democrat weakness in particularly Michigan and 0:08:51.857 --> 0:08:53.737 how that's going out with the whole Israel Palestine things. 0:08:53.737 --> 0:08:55.097 So I want to get to that. But first up, 0:08:55.177 --> 0:08:58.137 our sponsor Porter and Company. 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That secret Currency twenty twenty four dot com. 0:09:52.617 --> 0:09:54.257 All right, tell me if I'm right or wrong, and 0:09:54.297 --> 0:09:56.017 I know you will, because even though this is my show, 0:09:56.017 --> 0:09:59.417 you're still gonna be like, no, you're wrong, But really 0:09:59.497 --> 0:10:00.577 on this one, am I right? Yeah? 0:10:00.577 --> 0:10:02.537 You would have a Christmas card from you? 0:10:02.657 --> 0:10:02.857 Yeah. 0:10:02.937 --> 0:10:04.697 You and Michael Malice are the other ones who come 0:10:04.737 --> 0:10:06.497 on my show and like give me a hard time 0:10:06.537 --> 0:10:08.217 And people are like, why that guy's giving your hard time, 0:10:08.217 --> 0:10:11.817 But it's okay, we love you. My theory is this, 0:10:11.857 --> 0:10:14.737 people keep saying, oh Trump, I'm sorry, Biden's gonna lose 0:10:14.777 --> 0:10:18.297 Michigan because the Muslim vote is going to not vote, 0:10:18.337 --> 0:10:20.657 you know, the dearborn, etc. They're not going to show 0:10:20.737 --> 0:10:23.537 up because of Israel Palestine thing. I keep saying. As 0:10:23.537 --> 0:10:26.457 the election gets closer, they're just gonna be running ads 0:10:26.457 --> 0:10:28.897 like you got the quote Muslim band guy with Trump 0:10:29.017 --> 0:10:32.177 or Biden. They're not going to vote for Trump. Maybe 0:10:32.177 --> 0:10:34.137 people can argue some of them will stay home, but 0:10:34.257 --> 0:10:36.377 I feel like there's a lot of whining about this 0:10:36.497 --> 0:10:40.217 right now. But ultimately, if we're relying on the Muslims 0:10:40.217 --> 0:10:44.417 of Michigan to enlarge numbers, let's say, tens of thousands 0:10:44.497 --> 0:10:47.217 not come out for Biden because of what's going on 0:10:47.297 --> 0:10:50.457 in Gaza, I don't know. I don't feel good about that. 0:10:50.537 --> 0:10:52.497 I feel like I feel like they'll still vote for him. 0:10:52.497 --> 0:10:54.137 I don't think that they're going to bandon the Democrat 0:10:54.217 --> 0:10:56.337 Party over this? Am I wrong? Do you think they will? 0:10:57.497 --> 0:10:58.497 I think there's two things. 0:10:58.577 --> 0:11:02.697 One, in this polling over Muslims in America, they pull Arabs. 0:11:03.257 --> 0:11:06.017 Forty percent of Muslims in America are not Arabs. 0:11:06.017 --> 0:11:06.657 They are black. 0:11:07.857 --> 0:11:11.857 There are two hundred thousand black Muslims in Georgia. So 0:11:12.217 --> 0:11:14.217 I would really like to know what the black Muslim 0:11:14.257 --> 0:11:16.977 population thinks, because that is going to be as important, 0:11:17.057 --> 0:11:20.537 if not more important, given where they live in swing states, 0:11:20.817 --> 0:11:25.857 than just the Arabs of Michigan and Dearborn. I also 0:11:26.017 --> 0:11:30.457 think it depends on what Arab leaders are really trying 0:11:30.697 --> 0:11:34.977 to push out and convey Arab leaders, listen, if Joe 0:11:35.017 --> 0:11:38.497 Biden loses because the Muslim vote sat out of this election, 0:11:38.617 --> 0:11:42.417 or vote for Donald Trump, the issue of Israel no 0:11:42.497 --> 0:11:46.657 longer becomes as bipartisan as it once was forever Democrats. 0:11:47.057 --> 0:11:50.537 Mass immigration will have changed the issue and the Democratic 0:11:50.577 --> 0:11:53.457 Party will no longer think it favorably to support Israel 0:11:53.497 --> 0:11:54.217 the way that they have. 0:11:54.737 --> 0:11:55.737 That would be a big. 0:11:55.577 --> 0:11:58.657 Win in the long run. If Muslim leaders see that 0:11:58.777 --> 0:12:01.057 and say, this is the chance and who cares Donald 0:12:01.057 --> 0:12:03.057 Trump be a one term president of four years and 0:12:03.097 --> 0:12:06.097 we lived through with the first four years. I don't 0:12:06.257 --> 0:12:07.097 know if they'll care. 0:12:07.417 --> 0:12:09.897 And the problem was I think microphone, by the way, 0:12:10.097 --> 0:12:12.537 is rubbing against your collar and creating kind of a 0:12:12.537 --> 0:12:15.337 weird distort. Can you hold the whole hold the wire away? 0:12:15.417 --> 0:12:19.577 Sorry, okay, I'm sorry about that. So I think that 0:12:19.697 --> 0:12:24.737 if I think that if they have the perception that 0:12:24.777 --> 0:12:27.297 they have, they've lived through for for more years, what's 0:12:27.337 --> 0:12:30.017 another four when in the long term they can make 0:12:30.057 --> 0:12:33.537 the most powerful country in the world no longer support 0:12:33.777 --> 0:12:36.217 the most their most hated country in the world, being Israel. 0:12:36.617 --> 0:12:39.497 I think that there's a real possibility because if they 0:12:39.937 --> 0:12:44.737 the Democratic Party loses because of Muslims, the issue of 0:12:44.817 --> 0:12:48.897 Israel changes fundamentally. The next day. It will no longer 0:12:48.977 --> 0:12:52.297 be this bipartisan effort to support Israel. It will be 0:12:52.337 --> 0:12:55.897 the people who in the squad portion of the Democratic 0:12:55.937 --> 0:12:59.617 Party will expand exponentially until you we told you so, 0:13:00.177 --> 0:13:03.777 dump Israel. And it's not also the Muslims, by the way, 0:13:04.057 --> 0:13:07.337 it is like the crystal balls of the country. It 0:13:07.417 --> 0:13:10.537 is the far left white people. It's people who live 0:13:10.577 --> 0:13:15.417 in Alexandria. They are are Alexander, Virginia. Those kinds of 0:13:15.417 --> 0:13:16.537 people exist outside. 0:13:16.617 --> 0:13:18.617 I have a I have a. 0:13:19.057 --> 0:13:23.257 Egypt too, by the way, just to be fair, but yeah. 0:13:22.337 --> 0:13:25.697 Yes, yes, that is one hundred percent true Alexandria Egypt 0:13:25.697 --> 0:13:27.937 as well. But that is I I know, I have 0:13:28.217 --> 0:13:30.897 you know, one shit lib relative. She talks about Gaza 0:13:31.177 --> 0:13:35.577 endlessly and like that kind of personality when they need 0:13:35.617 --> 0:13:37.377 something to grasp onto it all the time. 0:13:37.417 --> 0:13:39.577 I have my version of this, which I talk about 0:13:39.577 --> 0:13:40.737 on radio at legs and people. 0:13:41.257 --> 0:13:42.937 Why do you think, what is it with? 0:13:43.777 --> 0:13:49.777 Why do left wing white opera middle class like live 0:13:50.177 --> 0:13:54.817 within ten minutes of downtown d c uh. You know 0:13:55.097 --> 0:14:00.497 the sort of white lib female prototype double masked during 0:14:00.577 --> 0:14:03.777 covid owns. A few cats doesn't want to get married, 0:14:03.817 --> 0:14:07.377 has a partner who's a guy, Like why do they 0:14:07.457 --> 0:14:09.697 care about Palestine so much. 0:14:12.017 --> 0:14:13.297 As a partner who's a guy. 0:14:13.377 --> 0:14:20.177 That's so great because they live for their whole entire 0:14:20.377 --> 0:14:24.857 being is like that. They are the good white. They're 0:14:24.897 --> 0:14:28.097 standing out for people who just have had everything down trotted. 0:14:28.137 --> 0:14:28.737 They are the people. 0:14:28.817 --> 0:14:32.497 But the in this house, we believe it's black lives matter, 0:14:32.697 --> 0:14:37.217 it's Ukraine, it's some undertrodden people, it's Asian hate, it's 0:14:37.257 --> 0:14:39.057 whoever is to sit there and. 0:14:39.017 --> 0:14:41.657 Say, no, I'm the good white. I promise you I'm 0:14:41.697 --> 0:14:42.417 the good white. 0:14:42.617 --> 0:14:47.497 Wow, it's amazing how powerful that no white guilt is everything. 0:14:47.617 --> 0:14:52.137 White guilt is such an enormous political tool. It has 0:14:52.177 --> 0:14:55.977 been used by unbelievable, you know, to tremendous effect by 0:14:55.977 --> 0:14:57.057 the communists in this country. 0:14:57.057 --> 0:14:57.777 I have to say it's. 0:14:57.657 --> 0:15:00.777 It's pretty pretty remarkable, but it's it's a true one. 0:15:01.457 --> 0:15:04.257 How are you feeling in general about the the upcoming election? 0:15:04.417 --> 0:15:06.017 Just just give me your quick rundown, the kind of 0:15:06.097 --> 0:15:11.377 lightning round Trump's chances. Senate Republicans Senate or Senate Republicans. 0:15:11.417 --> 0:15:14.417 House Republicans how's it looking well. 0:15:14.457 --> 0:15:16.497 I mean, the thing with Trump right now is he 0:15:16.537 --> 0:15:19.177 needs he needs I feel very good in the sun Belt. 0:15:19.257 --> 0:15:21.657 I think that there is a very high likelihood that 0:15:21.697 --> 0:15:25.377 Trump will went through the Sun Belt. The Biden campaign 0:15:25.497 --> 0:15:29.617 is all but pulled out of Florida, North Carolina, you know, completely, 0:15:29.697 --> 0:15:34.617 Texas is not even being considered. And he's definitely on 0:15:35.217 --> 0:15:39.457 the back bench. Where this election is is in the Midwest, 0:15:39.497 --> 0:15:44.017 and it's particularly among a base election. Do white working 0:15:44.017 --> 0:15:47.777 class people come out? All this talk over Hispanics and 0:15:47.897 --> 0:15:52.537 Asians and young black people will not matter in the 0:15:52.577 --> 0:15:57.457 electorates of Georgia, sorry, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan that arene to 0:15:57.537 --> 0:16:01.137 ninety five percent white and black. It's going to be 0:16:01.297 --> 0:16:03.977 Do white working class people go out? Does he go 0:16:04.017 --> 0:16:05.977 and speak to them? Does he appeal to them? I 0:16:06.057 --> 0:16:07.617 keep saying, this is why he needs to pig JD. 0:16:07.737 --> 0:16:10.377 Vans for vice president so badly, is because as he 0:16:10.417 --> 0:16:13.297 needs someone who can tell their his life story and 0:16:13.337 --> 0:16:18.017 reflect their life story. And and I just don't see 0:16:18.017 --> 0:16:22.017 any other candidate really doing that on the national stage. 0:16:22.217 --> 0:16:25.897 And and I don't think the idea of winning over 0:16:26.137 --> 0:16:29.697 broad strokes of suburbanites is going to happen. I think 0:16:29.697 --> 0:16:33.017 it really comes off to, you know, some portion of 0:16:33.017 --> 0:16:36.857 the minority vote changing, but also most importantly, having non 0:16:36.857 --> 0:16:41.537 college educated whites marching out to support Trump. 0:16:43.817 --> 0:16:46.737 Look not as they look okay, I mean they look okay. 0:16:48.177 --> 0:16:48.457 I mean. 0:16:48.577 --> 0:16:50.737 The thing is in the Senate, you have a definite 0:16:50.737 --> 0:16:53.057 pick up in Wiscon West Virginia, which makes it fifty 0:16:53.097 --> 0:16:56.777 to fifty. And then you have Montana, which we don't 0:16:56.857 --> 0:17:01.337 know because he's a very untested name. Bernie Marino is 0:17:01.377 --> 0:17:04.257 down pretty substantially and not pretty substantially, but he's down 0:17:04.257 --> 0:17:06.497 in Ohio in every poll so far, so maybe. 0:17:06.297 --> 0:17:06.857 We'll pick up. 0:17:07.057 --> 0:17:10.297 The thing about the Assenate candidates is a side aide 0:17:10.337 --> 0:17:14.177 from Larry Hogan and Carrie Lake. They are very unknown 0:17:14.337 --> 0:17:17.897 quantities and so they have you. Their name idea is 0:17:17.937 --> 0:17:20.137 actually very low. I think that in a poll today 0:17:20.457 --> 0:17:23.257 in the Maris Pole in Ohio, I think only sixty 0:17:23.297 --> 0:17:26.257 seven percent of the people had heard of Bernie Marino. 0:17:26.617 --> 0:17:28.017 So when you have a third of the people have 0:17:28.137 --> 0:17:30.497 never heard of somebody before, you can really change some 0:17:30.497 --> 0:17:33.657 people's minds. Carrie Lake and Larry Hogan. Larry Hogan was 0:17:33.657 --> 0:17:35.697 the two term governor Maryland. He's a very well known 0:17:35.697 --> 0:17:39.177 and very well liked entity in Maryland. Carrie Lake ran 0:17:39.257 --> 0:17:41.537 for governor and became a bit of a political celebrity. 0:17:41.537 --> 0:17:45.177 She's a very well known and very disliked person in Arizona. 0:17:46.457 --> 0:17:52.617 So given that is going to lose, yes, oh, big time. 0:17:52.777 --> 0:17:54.377 It's going to be a bloodbath. It's like the first 0:17:54.377 --> 0:17:57.377 fifteen minutes a saving Private Ryan. It's going to be 0:17:57.417 --> 0:18:02.857 a disaster. She's not She's an enormously disliked personality. She 0:18:03.257 --> 0:18:08.017 comes off as weird and strange, and she she doesn't 0:18:08.097 --> 0:18:10.617 know which way she's running. She has changed position on 0:18:10.657 --> 0:18:15.297 abortion four times. She is you know, she has tried 0:18:15.337 --> 0:18:18.777 to reach out to moderates and then backpedaled and attacked moderates. 0:18:19.697 --> 0:18:22.457 She doesn't know which way, and she will be vastly underspent. 0:18:22.897 --> 0:18:24.857 I don't think the NRSC is really spending much in 0:18:24.977 --> 0:18:28.337 Arizona because her numbers are just well, her numbers, and 0:18:29.337 --> 0:18:31.177 you know, she should have done the good for the 0:18:31.217 --> 0:18:34.057 party and not run, but she the ego is immense. 0:18:34.857 --> 0:18:37.497 The So it sounds like just on the presidential side, 0:18:37.577 --> 0:18:40.417 just the last thing here, the election really sounds like 0:18:40.457 --> 0:18:44.577 it comes down to Georgia Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. Is that 0:18:44.697 --> 0:18:46.897 really what determines it in your mind? 0:18:47.017 --> 0:18:49.817 Or yeah, one hundred percent. I don't think. I mean, listen, 0:18:49.977 --> 0:18:50.537 like a. 0:18:51.057 --> 0:18:54.857 Trump is good, right, I mean North Carolina is good. 0:18:55.817 --> 0:18:57.937 So I'll put it this way since I wrote this 0:18:57.977 --> 0:18:59.577 on a tweet, but I don't remember the top of 0:18:59.577 --> 0:19:01.617 my head. But it's something like this, like since twenty 0:19:01.657 --> 0:19:04.097 twenty two, Trump has led every poll in Texas is 0:19:04.097 --> 0:19:06.657 twenty twenty two. He's lett in every pole in North 0:19:06.697 --> 0:19:09.497 Carolina since polling began. He's lett in every pole in 0:19:09.577 --> 0:19:12.417 georgia's polling began. He's led in every poll in Arizona, 0:19:12.417 --> 0:19:15.057 I think, but one since polling began, like thirty seven 0:19:15.097 --> 0:19:17.337 out of thirty eight. He's led in every pole in 0:19:17.417 --> 0:19:20.777 Nevada since polling began. He has not lost in a 0:19:20.857 --> 0:19:24.097 single poll I think, except for one, which is an 0:19:24.097 --> 0:19:27.337 outlier in any of the Sun Belt states, not Florida, 0:19:27.377 --> 0:19:31.737 North Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Arizona, or Nevada. He is about 0:19:31.777 --> 0:19:36.857 fifty to fifty in all polls in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. 0:19:37.337 --> 0:19:40.457 So given that, given that RFK will be on the 0:19:40.457 --> 0:19:42.177 ballot in all those states, and there'll be a lot 0:19:42.257 --> 0:19:46.257 of people who hate the vaccine that will be, you know, voting, 0:19:46.417 --> 0:19:48.177 and maybe a lot of black people, by the way, 0:19:48.177 --> 0:19:51.377 who loved his who loved his uncles, that he also 0:19:51.417 --> 0:19:54.977 has a lot of appeal with. That is a big 0:19:55.097 --> 0:19:58.017 question and it is all going to come down to 0:19:58.257 --> 0:20:00.337 does he bring his base out, does he get them 0:20:00.377 --> 0:20:03.337