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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure

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Speaker 1: you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or

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Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Buck Brief, Ryan

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Speaker 1: Gerdusky in the mix. He's going to explain who's going

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Speaker 1: to win the election, why they're going to win the election,

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Speaker 1: all the day, to all the numbers, all the things.

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Speaker 1: He's just gonna make sense of it all for us,

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Speaker 1: because that's what he does. He's got the National Populist

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Speaker 1: newsletter on substack, which you should all subscribe to. Let

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Speaker 1: me start with let me start with this, Ryan, everything

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Speaker 1: that seems to happen now, the consensus opinion quickly becomes

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Speaker 1: it doesn't matter. It's not going to do anything, you

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Speaker 1: know what I mean. Trump's convicted and everyone's like it

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Speaker 1: doesn't matter, No one cares, Like, it's not gonna do thing. Hunter,

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Speaker 1: Biden's convicted, It's not gonna matter. No, what is gonna matter?

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Speaker 1: You know what I'm saying, Like, like these people who

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Speaker 1: could go either way, Trump or Biden, what is going

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Speaker 1: to make up their minds because it doesn't sound like

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Speaker 1: any of this legal stuff will.

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Speaker 2: I think the debate will matter a lot. I think

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Speaker 2: that the debate will be. I think it's weird that's

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Speaker 2: in June. I think it's on a purpose that it's

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Speaker 2: in June. I think that the debate.

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Speaker 3: Will mean something to a lot of people because it

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Speaker 3: will be because expectations, mistakenly, I think by the Trump

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Speaker 3: campaign are so low for Joe Biden, kind of the

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Speaker 3: same way that Joe Biden made them low for Sarah

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Speaker 3: Palin back in two thousand and eight.

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Speaker 2: I think that if Donald Trump, but I'm sorry Joe Biden,

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Speaker 2: is coherent and cognitive for just ninety straight minutes, then

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Speaker 2: he will be declared the winner. Donald Trump is also

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Speaker 2: very weak at debates. He's never done very well in debates,

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Speaker 2: and there will be a lot of questions that the

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Speaker 2: moderator is going to be a very hostile and the

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Speaker 2: questions are going to be January six, and the convictions

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Speaker 2: and the argument will be about Trump's character instead of

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Speaker 2: Biden's time in office. And if we have eighty million

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Speaker 2: people watching, that could be a very big deciding factor.

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Speaker 2: It'd be the last time Joe Biden makes the first

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Speaker 2: impression interesting.

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Speaker 1: So you think that because I also think that generally

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Speaker 1: in other circumstances, we've seen the debates don't really matter, right.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Romney absolutely wipe the floor with Barack Obama

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Speaker 1: back in twenty twelve in the first debate. I know

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Speaker 1: the second debate was different than Candy Crowley thing, but

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Speaker 1: obviously Romney got smoked, right, It wasn't even closed the election.

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Speaker 1: It feels like in a lot of these debates people

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Speaker 1: forget them within days of them happening. But in this case,

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Speaker 1: you're telling me, if Biden does reasonably well, then the

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Speaker 1: expectations are set so that will help him at least

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Speaker 1: overcome the age thing.

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Speaker 2: But well, the difference between the but in twenty twelve.

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Speaker 2: In twenty twelve, Obama was able to market Romney very

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Speaker 2: early on, so people had an opinion on Mitt Romney

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Speaker 2: that was very unshakable, very hard to shake by the

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Speaker 2: time that the election came rolling around. Because the two things,

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Speaker 2: the two groups of people that Romney sat there and

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Speaker 2: spoke to his one working class whites, which was saying

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Speaker 2: to them, he took away your jobs and he shot

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Speaker 2: them with in China, you can't trust them. And he

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Speaker 2: spoke to Hispanics and Blacks on most of the identity

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Speaker 2: issues but also healthcare. He saw it to Hispanics, I

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Speaker 2: gave you healthcare, and he said to blacks, you know,

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Speaker 2: keep me in office, let's keep it. Let's you know,

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Speaker 2: let's win one for our people. And that mattered immensely

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Speaker 2: to those three groups of people. And by the time

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Speaker 2: November rolled around, but I was the first debate rolled around,

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Speaker 2: there was a very deep feeling among working class whites

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Speaker 2: in Iowa.

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Speaker 4: Remember Rodney lost.

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Speaker 2: Iowa, Iowa, Ohio, he lost Ohio, and it sat there

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Speaker 2: and said, you can't trust this guy.

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Speaker 4: He shipped your jobs to China.

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Speaker 1: Well, I have the thing that the votemember vulture capital.

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Speaker 1: That was the thing that instead of venture capital they

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Speaker 1: called the vulture capital.

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Speaker 4: And yeah, he was very good.

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Speaker 1: The problem with private equity stuff is it actually looks

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Speaker 1: pretty bad sometimes, right, I mean the whole like cut

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Speaker 1: costs a lot of people levered up with debt, pay

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Speaker 1: yourself a huge amount of money and then leave this

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Speaker 1: like limping mutilated company to kind of like that's not good.

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Speaker 1: Is not good.

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Speaker 4: Also, Romney was impersonal.

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Speaker 2: I remember that. On the campaign show One Time Romney

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Speaker 2: in twenty twelve, they asked him like he was supposed

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Speaker 2: to be doing some kind of like, I don't know,

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Speaker 2: like crowd work, and they were like he was like

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Speaker 2: trying to guess people's ethnicities.

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Speaker 4: It was very strange.

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Speaker 2: And then he got a puff piece interview and they said,

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Speaker 2: what do you like to do for fun? He said,

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Speaker 2: I like to be jolly. He just was always very remote.

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Speaker 2: He was always afraid of embarrassing.

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Speaker 1: He's a weirdo, and as we know he's I mean

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Speaker 1: the fact. I mean, for me, Covid was like a

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Speaker 1: a binary You got it right, You're a person we

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Speaker 1: can trust, or you didn't, and you're like you're like

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Speaker 1: the enemy. Also, I feel that way about the BLM,

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Speaker 1: especially if you're supposedly a Republican. If you thought that

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Speaker 1: the BLM riots were like justified or whatever, you're you're

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Speaker 1: like dead to me forever. Yeah. Yeah, so he falls

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Speaker 1: in it. Remember he was more marching. He was like

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Speaker 1: I'm here because black lives matter. With the mask on

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Speaker 1: his face. I was like, oh my god, what happened

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Speaker 1: to mid r The absolute worst? Okay, but but back

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Speaker 1: to the upcoming debate, which is it's like two weeks,

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Speaker 1: isn't it. I'm just realizing it isn't.

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Speaker 4: Like two weeks and two weeks like that. Yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 4: you see step.

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Speaker 1: Is saying that all that has to really be asked

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Speaker 1: of Trump. Well, the most important thing to be asked

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Speaker 1: if Trump is who won the twenty twenty election? On

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Speaker 1: that stage, how do you.

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Speaker 4: Think it's gonna be hard?

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Speaker 2: That's that's gonna hurt? It is most people, most Americans

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Speaker 2: think that Joe Biden legitimately won that election. I know Republicans,

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Speaker 2: but most Americans do.

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Speaker 4: If if you think.

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Speaker 1: Trump is going to say on that stage where I

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Speaker 1: started review, do you think Trump is going to say

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Speaker 1: I want Like he's just gonna come out as he

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Speaker 1: is going to.

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Speaker 4: Say it, what is it going to say? I guess look, guys, no,

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Speaker 4: I came to the conclusion I want just to be fair.

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Speaker 1: Another politician would talk around it and be like, well

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Speaker 1: like what really the election now was the one that

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Speaker 1: you know what I mean, they would do that, But

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Speaker 1: like He'll just be like, I want it. It was beautiful,

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Speaker 1: wanted by ten million votes. Like he's going to do that, right,

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Speaker 1: He's going to do that.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, he's gonna sit there and say I won the election.

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Speaker 2: He's gonna be flat out be like, yeah, I won

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Speaker 2: the election, and I was stolen and mail in ballads

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Speaker 2: and truth the vote, and I can write his freaking

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Speaker 2: answer for him. He's not gonna change. And if enough

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Speaker 2: of the questions, if the first forty five minutes are

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Speaker 2: conviction J six stole an election, Okay, by the time

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Speaker 2: that half the audience is tuned out, they'll be like,

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Speaker 2: so the border's a mess, let's talk about that. And

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Speaker 2: you know, and you know, Donald Trump is gonna I

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Speaker 2: don't know if he's living with a pivot or move

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Speaker 2: it forward or to have an answer.

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Speaker 4: But if I was on the campaigner now, I'd already

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Speaker 4: be working with him.

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Speaker 2: And saying, let's do some debate prep, buddy, because you

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Speaker 2: cannot screw this one up, because no one will hear

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Speaker 2: another debate until the end of summer. This is the

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Speaker 2: last memory they have until they go off and to

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Speaker 2: the beach or to the mountains wherever they go for

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Speaker 2: the summer.

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Speaker 4: And this is it.

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Speaker 2: This will be the last first impression they have. And

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Speaker 2: early voting starts September in some states, so you are

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Speaker 2: looking at a very very very you know, tight couple

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Speaker 2: of months for this is the last time people ever

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Speaker 2: hear from you. And I think, I think the debate

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Speaker 2: will matter, especially given that there has been a post

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Speaker 2: conviction bounce about one point, which is not that much,

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Speaker 2: but it will matter enough in the swing States. And

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Speaker 2: I mean, Donald has a ton of money now thanks

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Speaker 2: to the conviction, but he's really got to put it

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Speaker 2: to good use, and he's really got to make this

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Speaker 2: election about Joe Biden's presidency, not about Donald Trump's personality. Because,

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Speaker 2: much to what anyone doesn't want to leave, Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: is not personally likable. His policies are personally liked, but

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Speaker 2: he himself is not likable.

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Speaker 1: You're gonna get you're gonna get be yelled at by

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Speaker 1: everybody watching his podcast. I actually think it's I know,

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Speaker 1: you don't care.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think he's very funny. He's funny to a

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Speaker 4: certain people who like him.

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Speaker 2: If you grew up and you loved Al Bundy, I'm

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Speaker 2: married with children, you probably like Donald Trump.

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Speaker 4: Uh, that's probably your sense of humor.

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Speaker 2: If you thought that he was a really gross person,

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Speaker 2: it was a lot of funny. You probably don't think

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump's funny. It's just there's a there's there's certain

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Speaker 2: group of people that do really find him entertaining and enjoyable.

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Speaker 4: Uh, it's not. It's not everybody, though.

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Speaker 1: Let's I want to talk about because I don't want

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Speaker 1: everyone to just leave democrat weakness in different swing states

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Speaker 1: in a moment here, we're gonna we're gonna reel everybody

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Speaker 1: back in talking about Democrat weakness in particularly Michigan and

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Speaker 1: how that's going out with the whole Israel Palestine things.

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Speaker 1: So I want to get to that. But first up,

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Speaker 1: All right, tell me if I'm right or wrong, and

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Speaker 1: I know you will, because even though this is my show,

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Speaker 1: you're still gonna be like, no, you're wrong, But really

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Speaker 1: on this one, am I right? Yeah?

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Speaker 4: You would have a Christmas card from you?

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: You and Michael Malice are the other ones who come

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Speaker 1: on my show and like give me a hard time

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Speaker 1: And people are like, why that guy's giving your hard time,

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Speaker 1: But it's okay, we love you. My theory is this,

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Speaker 1: people keep saying, oh Trump, I'm sorry, Biden's gonna lose

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Speaker 1: Michigan because the Muslim vote is going to not vote,

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Speaker 1: you know, the dearborn, etc. They're not going to show

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Speaker 1: up because of Israel Palestine thing. I keep saying. As

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Speaker 1: the election gets closer, they're just gonna be running ads

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Speaker 1: like you got the quote Muslim band guy with Trump

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Speaker 1: or Biden. They're not going to vote for Trump. Maybe

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Speaker 1: people can argue some of them will stay home, but

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Speaker 1: I feel like there's a lot of whining about this

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Speaker 1: right now. But ultimately, if we're relying on the Muslims

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Speaker 1: of Michigan to enlarge numbers, let's say, tens of thousands

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Speaker 1: not come out for Biden because of what's going on

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Speaker 1: in Gaza, I don't know. I don't feel good about that.

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Speaker 1: I feel like I feel like they'll still vote for him.

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Speaker 1: I don't think that they're going to bandon the Democrat

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Speaker 1: Party over this? Am I wrong? Do you think they will?

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Speaker 4: I think there's two things.

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Speaker 2: One, in this polling over Muslims in America, they pull Arabs.

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Speaker 2: Forty percent of Muslims in America are not Arabs.

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Speaker 4: They are black.

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Speaker 2: There are two hundred thousand black Muslims in Georgia. So

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Speaker 2: I would really like to know what the black Muslim

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Speaker 2: population thinks, because that is going to be as important,

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Speaker 2: if not more important, given where they live in swing states,

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Speaker 2: than just the Arabs of Michigan and Dearborn. I also

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Speaker 2: think it depends on what Arab leaders are really trying

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Speaker 2: to push out and convey Arab leaders, listen, if Joe

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Speaker 2: Biden loses because the Muslim vote sat out of this election,

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Speaker 2: or vote for Donald Trump, the issue of Israel no

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Speaker 2: longer becomes as bipartisan as it once was forever Democrats.

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Speaker 2: Mass immigration will have changed the issue and the Democratic

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Speaker 2: Party will no longer think it favorably to support Israel

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Speaker 2: the way that they have.

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Speaker 4: That would be a big.

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Speaker 2: Win in the long run. If Muslim leaders see that

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Speaker 2: and say, this is the chance and who cares Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump be a one term president of four years and

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Speaker 2: we lived through with the first four years. I don't

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Speaker 2: know if they'll care.

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Speaker 1: And the problem was I think microphone, by the way,

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Speaker 1: is rubbing against your collar and creating kind of a

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Speaker 1: weird distort. Can you hold the whole hold the wire away?

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Speaker 2: Sorry, okay, I'm sorry about that. So I think that

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Speaker 2: if I think that if they have the perception that

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Speaker 2: they have, they've lived through for for more years, what's

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Speaker 2: another four when in the long term they can make

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Speaker 2: the most powerful country in the world no longer support

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Speaker 2: the most their most hated country in the world, being Israel.

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Speaker 2: I think that there's a real possibility because if they

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Speaker 2: the Democratic Party loses because of Muslims, the issue of

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Speaker 2: Israel changes fundamentally. The next day. It will no longer

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Speaker 2: be this bipartisan effort to support Israel. It will be

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Speaker 2: the people who in the squad portion of the Democratic

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Speaker 2: Party will expand exponentially until you we told you so,

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Speaker 2: dump Israel. And it's not also the Muslims, by the way,

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Speaker 2: it is like the crystal balls of the country. It

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Speaker 2: is the far left white people. It's people who live

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Speaker 2: in Alexandria. They are are Alexander, Virginia. Those kinds of

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Speaker 2: people exist outside.

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Speaker 4: I have a I have a.

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Speaker 1: Egypt too, by the way, just to be fair, but yeah.

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Speaker 2: Yes, yes, that is one hundred percent true Alexandria Egypt

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Speaker 2: as well. But that is I I know, I have

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Speaker 2: you know, one shit lib relative. She talks about Gaza

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Speaker 2: endlessly and like that kind of personality when they need

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Speaker 2: something to grasp onto it all the time.

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Speaker 1: I have my version of this, which I talk about

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Speaker 1: on radio at legs and people.

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Speaker 4: Why do you think, what is it with?

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Speaker 1: Why do left wing white opera middle class like live

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Speaker 1: within ten minutes of downtown d c uh. You know

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Speaker 1: the sort of white lib female prototype double masked during

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Speaker 1: covid owns. A few cats doesn't want to get married,

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Speaker 1: has a partner who's a guy, Like why do they

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Speaker 1: care about Palestine so much.

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Speaker 4: As a partner who's a guy.

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Speaker 2: That's so great because they live for their whole entire

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Speaker 2: being is like that. They are the good white. They're

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Speaker 2: standing out for people who just have had everything down trotted.

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Speaker 4: They are the people.

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Speaker 2: But the in this house, we believe it's black lives matter,

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Speaker 2: it's Ukraine, it's some undertrodden people, it's Asian hate, it's

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Speaker 2: whoever is to sit there and.

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Speaker 4: Say, no, I'm the good white. I promise you I'm

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Speaker 4: the good white.

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Speaker 1: Wow, it's amazing how powerful that no white guilt is everything.

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Speaker 1: White guilt is such an enormous political tool. It has

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Speaker 1: been used by unbelievable, you know, to tremendous effect by

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Speaker 1: the communists in this country.

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Speaker 4: I have to say it's.

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Speaker 1: It's pretty pretty remarkable, but it's it's a true one.

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Speaker 1: How are you feeling in general about the the upcoming election?

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Speaker 1: Just just give me your quick rundown, the kind of

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Speaker 1: lightning round Trump's chances. Senate Republicans Senate or Senate Republicans.

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Speaker 1: House Republicans how's it looking well.

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Speaker 2: I mean, the thing with Trump right now is he

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Speaker 2: needs he needs I feel very good in the sun Belt.

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Speaker 2: I think that there is a very high likelihood that

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Speaker 2: Trump will went through the Sun Belt. The Biden campaign

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Speaker 2: is all but pulled out of Florida, North Carolina, you know, completely,

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Speaker 2: Texas is not even being considered. And he's definitely on

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Speaker 2: the back bench. Where this election is is in the Midwest,

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Speaker 2: and it's particularly among a base election. Do white working

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Speaker 2: class people come out? All this talk over Hispanics and

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Speaker 2: Asians and young black people will not matter in the

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Speaker 2: electorates of Georgia, sorry, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan that arene to

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Speaker 2: ninety five percent white and black. It's going to be

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Speaker 2: Do white working class people go out? Does he go

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Speaker 2: and speak to them? Does he appeal to them? I

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Speaker 2: keep saying, this is why he needs to pig JD.

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Speaker 2: Vans for vice president so badly, is because as he

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Speaker 2: needs someone who can tell their his life story and

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Speaker 2: reflect their life story. And and I just don't see

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Speaker 2: any other candidate really doing that on the national stage.

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Speaker 2: And and I don't think the idea of winning over

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Speaker 2: broad strokes of suburbanites is going to happen. I think

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Speaker 2: it really comes off to, you know, some portion of

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Speaker 2: the minority vote changing, but also most importantly, having non

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Speaker 2: college educated whites marching out to support Trump.

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Speaker 4: Look not as they look okay, I mean they look okay.

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Speaker 4: I mean.

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Speaker 2: The thing is in the Senate, you have a definite

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Speaker 2: pick up in Wiscon West Virginia, which makes it fifty

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Speaker 2: to fifty. And then you have Montana, which we don't

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Speaker 2: know because he's a very untested name. Bernie Marino is

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Speaker 2: down pretty substantially and not pretty substantially, but he's down

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Speaker 2: in Ohio in every poll so far, so maybe.

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Speaker 4: We'll pick up.

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Speaker 2: The thing about the Assenate candidates is a side aide

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Speaker 2: from Larry Hogan and Carrie Lake. They are very unknown

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Speaker 2: quantities and so they have you. Their name idea is

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Speaker 2: actually very low. I think that in a poll today

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Speaker 2: in the Maris Pole in Ohio, I think only sixty

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Speaker 2: seven percent of the people had heard of Bernie Marino.

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Speaker 2: So when you have a third of the people have

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Speaker 2: never heard of somebody before, you can really change some

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Speaker 2: people's minds. Carrie Lake and Larry Hogan. Larry Hogan was

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Speaker 2: the two term governor Maryland. He's a very well known

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Speaker 2: and very well liked entity in Maryland. Carrie Lake ran

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Speaker 2: for governor and became a bit of a political celebrity.

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Speaker 2: She's a very well known and very disliked person in Arizona.

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Speaker 2: So given that is going to lose, yes, oh, big time.

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Speaker 2: It's going to be a bloodbath. It's like the first

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Speaker 2: fifteen minutes a saving Private Ryan. It's going to be

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Speaker 2: a disaster. She's not She's an enormously disliked personality. She

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Speaker 2: comes off as weird and strange, and she she doesn't

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Speaker 2: know which way she's running. She has changed position on

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Speaker 2: abortion four times. She is you know, she has tried

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Speaker 2: to reach out to moderates and then backpedaled and attacked moderates.

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Speaker 2: She doesn't know which way, and she will be vastly underspent.

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Speaker 2: I don't think the NRSC is really spending much in

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Speaker 2: Arizona because her numbers are just well, her numbers, and

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Speaker 2: you know, she should have done the good for the

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Speaker 2: party and not run, but she the ego is immense.

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Speaker 1: The So it sounds like just on the presidential side,

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Speaker 1: just the last thing here, the election really sounds like

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Speaker 1: it comes down to Georgia Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. Is that

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Speaker 1: really what determines it in your mind?

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Speaker 4: Or yeah, one hundred percent. I don't think. I mean, listen,

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Speaker 4: like a.

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Speaker 1: Trump is good, right, I mean North Carolina is good.

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Speaker 2: So I'll put it this way since I wrote this

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Speaker 2: on a tweet, but I don't remember the top of

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Speaker 2: my head. But it's something like this, like since twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty two, Trump has led every poll in Texas is

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty two. He's lett in every pole in North

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Speaker 2: Carolina since polling began. He's lett in every pole in

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Speaker 2: georgia's polling began. He's led in every poll in Arizona,

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Speaker 2: I think, but one since polling began, like thirty seven

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Speaker 2: out of thirty eight. He's led in every pole in

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Speaker 2: Nevada since polling began. He has not lost in a

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Speaker 2: single poll I think, except for one, which is an

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Speaker 2: outlier in any of the Sun Belt states, not Florida,

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Speaker 2: North Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Arizona, or Nevada. He is about

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Speaker 2: fifty to fifty in all polls in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

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Speaker 2: So given that, given that RFK will be on the

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Speaker 2: ballot in all those states, and there'll be a lot

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Speaker 2: of people who hate the vaccine that will be, you know, voting,

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Speaker 2: and maybe a lot of black people, by the way,

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Speaker 2: who loved his who loved his uncles, that he also

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Speaker 2: has a lot of appeal with. That is a big

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Speaker 2: question and it is all going to come down to

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Speaker 2: does he bring his base out, does he get them

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Speaker 2: to sit there and support and does he speak to

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Speaker 2: those voters? And I think that he needs to speak

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Speaker 2: much louder to them than he has been and organizing

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Speaker 2: them immensely, because I don't see a ton of organizations

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Speaker 2: so far from the Trump campaign. And these are people

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Speaker 2: with low propensity voters. These are people, by the way,

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Speaker 2: you want to be voting by mail or in person

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Speaker 2: early because the chances of them showing up on election

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Speaker 2: day are going to be very very very small. They

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Speaker 2: are not guaranteed likely voters. The blue haired, college educated,

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Speaker 2: fifty something year old white woman or black women by

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Speaker 2: the way, who is a lifelong Democrat will be voting.

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Speaker 2: They have a high propensity voting. So the groups of

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Speaker 2: people who vote the worst or worst voting behaviors are

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Speaker 2: Asians and Hispanics at the bottom. Then non college educated

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Speaker 2: whites then blacks than college educated whites. So even though

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Speaker 2: there's more non college educated whites, they don't vote as frequently,

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Speaker 2: so getting them to vote early is so so so important.

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Speaker 4: Ryan Dusk give everybody making their vote.

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Speaker 1: Subscribe to the Subscribe to the National Populas newsletter on substack.

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Speaker 1: Ryan talk to you more as this comes along.

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Speaker 4: Thanks so much, Thank you,