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Speaker 1: Global business news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm Karin Moscow.

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Speaker 1: This updates brought to you by Interactive Brokers and CME Group.

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Speaker 1: more at Interactive Brokers dot com slash CME Group. The

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Speaker 1: automakers are reporting their US sales figures for a February

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Speaker 1: for it AD just out saying sales rose more than

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Speaker 1: twenty percent, beating analysts estimates. Nissan also beat, as did

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Speaker 1: Fiat Chrysler U Stock Index futures meanwhile higher SNP EMNI

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Speaker 1: futures of thirteen points, DOWIE Mini futures up eighty eight

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Speaker 1: and NASDAC emni futures up thirty one dacks in Germany's

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Speaker 1: up one and a half percent, ten year treasury up

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Speaker 1: to thirty seconds, the yield one point seven two percent.

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Speaker 1: Nimex screwed oil up nine tenths percent, or twenty nine

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Speaker 1: cents at thirty four oh four a barrel. Comex gold

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Speaker 1: up six tenths percent or seven dollars sixty cents at

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Speaker 1: twelve forty two twenty announced the euro a dollar eight

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Speaker 1: seven one the N one thirteen point eight. That's a

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg business flash. Tom and Mike, thanks so much, turn

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Speaker 1: greatly appreciate it. Good morning everyone, Bloomberg's surveillance from Washington

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Speaker 1: this Super Tuesday. We welcome all of you. Right now,

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Speaker 1: do we just talk about econometrics, about the greater economy

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Speaker 1: in the macroeconomics of the nation. Let's talk about the

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Speaker 1: statistical analysis. Who's gonna vote? Tom Vannier is with clarity

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Speaker 1: and has been instrumental clarity campaign Labs, Target Target Spark, right.

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Speaker 1: I can't keep track of the names. I mean, we're

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Speaker 1: switching from progressive back to liberal as well. But we're

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Speaker 1: gonna talk about as someone who actually tries to figure

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Speaker 1: out what we're going to do. How is the world

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Speaker 1: now different than the simple days of the gallop pole.

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Speaker 1: It's it's really infinitely different in so many ways. Um.

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Speaker 1: You know, when we look at at the really the

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Speaker 1: last two presidential campaigns, the we look at especially President

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Speaker 1: Obama's campaigns, but also John McCain, uh Mitt, Romney presidential

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Speaker 1: campaigns have become billion dollars startups that they ramp up

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Speaker 1: in no time and they're very high stakes and so UH.

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Speaker 1: To go along with that, there's been uh more accountability

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Speaker 1: and how these campaigns spend their money, and a big

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Speaker 1: part of that is data. Uh it's data driven decision

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Speaker 1: making UM and and really the sort of data that

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Speaker 1: is available to campaigns today uh is infinitely different from

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Speaker 1: what campaigns used years ago, where really they relied on

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Speaker 1: relatively small sample surveys, long surveys, but they would dig

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Speaker 1: deep into messaging and they deal with the overall strategy,

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Speaker 1: but they really didn't deal with the micro aspects of

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Speaker 1: campaigns really because they didn't have to, because campaigns didn't

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Speaker 1: really have the capacity nor the ability to communicate on

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Speaker 1: a one to one basis like we do that now

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Speaker 1: you can, and you worked for Democrats for years. Tell

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Speaker 1: who votes when Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders face off

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Speaker 1: in his state? Um, you know who's going to vote,

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Speaker 1: that's right, and and who is whose supporters are actually

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Speaker 1: getting out and voted. Well. Uh, So we have an

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Speaker 1: entire process that we go through where we model the

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Speaker 1: electorate and we actually apply probabilities to every single voter

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Speaker 1: a million rested voters in this country, and we have

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Speaker 1: a zero to one probability score assigned every voter and

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Speaker 1: the likelihood that they're going to vote in both the

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Speaker 1: primary election the general election. Now, generally these primaries, UH,

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Speaker 1: the people who vote tend to be older. Other people

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Speaker 1: have voted more in past elections. And really the pattern

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Speaker 1: that we've seen in the Democratic primary, at least thus far,

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Speaker 1: has been fairly standard. And in the two thousand eight primary,

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Speaker 1: you saw more younger uh, more African American War Latino

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Speaker 1: voters participate in the primaries, uh and and and that

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Speaker 1: pattern is holding for the most part. There's nothing all

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Speaker 1: together unusual about the turnout pattern, Bernie stand there hasn't

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Speaker 1: encouraged some more younger voters to participate in some of

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Speaker 1: the early states thus far, but really not enough to

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Speaker 1: make a substantial difference. So you gotta call tomorrow morning

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Speaker 1: from Donald Trump's people and they say, we love what

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Speaker 1: you do. We know you're on the other side of

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Speaker 1: the fence when you get a consultant to tell us

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Speaker 1: what to do. What's your advice to a guy who,

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Speaker 1: it appears to me, hasn't done much data collection well, well, well,

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Speaker 1: first of all, I'd likely tell him to take a hike,

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Speaker 1: because not not my side of the fence. The Trump

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Speaker 1: campaign is really fascinating and that uh he is running

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Speaker 1: one of the least sophisticated campaigns in terms of data technology,

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Speaker 1: UM analytics, yet he continues to win. It's it's a

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Speaker 1: very gut instinct driven campaign. He's obviously a very smart businessman.

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Speaker 1: He can walk into a room and he can know

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Speaker 1: immediately what people want to hear. And the room he's

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Speaker 1: in now is the Republican primary, and so he's saying

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Speaker 1: things that those people want to hear. I think we

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Speaker 1: hear something very different in the general election. Uh. But

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Speaker 1: he has shunned the traditional concept of even pulling something

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Speaker 1: the campaigns have been doing for decades, where he somewhat

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Speaker 1: famously said why should we pull when the media is

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Speaker 1: doing it for us anyhow? Uh So, so my advice

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Speaker 1: as a Democrat would be to keep doing what you're

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Speaker 1: doing because he's really wreaking havoc on the Republican Well

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Speaker 1: that's where I want to go next. Um. If Trump

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Speaker 1: is a nominee, there's a lot of talk about what

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Speaker 1: happens down ballot, what do your numbers suggest do you

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Speaker 1: have enough information enough data to be able to make

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Speaker 1: a forecast. Well, I'll add this caveat at the outset

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Speaker 1: that that Donald Trump and in this election year, has

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Speaker 1: made a lot of very smart pundits look very stupid

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Speaker 1: thus far, I don't think anyone would have guessed or

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Speaker 1: predicted that he would be where he is now. It's

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Speaker 1: I could look anywhere and and and be accurate without

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Speaker 1: even in myself. So uh uh so uh In terms

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Speaker 1: of predicting the impact, uh, A smart money would say

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Speaker 1: that he would have a catastrophic impact on Republicans up

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Speaker 1: and down the ticket. Uh and and and hearing your

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Speaker 1: your guests earlier today, Vin Weber, Secretary Cohen, it it's

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Speaker 1: it's really remarkable to hear people like that running so

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Speaker 1: far away from but the way the districts have been

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Speaker 1: jerry mandering. Jerrymandering is a significant issue, and we could

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Speaker 1: talk about that for hours. It's it's it's likely the

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Speaker 1: root of a lot of the problems that this country

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Speaker 1: is facing right now, and so that does insulate a

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Speaker 1: number of districts against the way. But waves do happen,

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Speaker 1: We saw them happen that happened in We've seen that

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Speaker 1: happen in two thousand six when Democrats took the House back.

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Speaker 1: So this is really an unusual election year we're headed into.

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Speaker 1: So I think all bets are off, and that's why

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Speaker 1: you're seeing so many nervous members of Congress. I didn't

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Speaker 1: even have time to talk to you today, Tom Bonnier,

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Speaker 1: about the strange transformation from from liberal to progressive in

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Speaker 1: back to liberal as well. Please can we speak to

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Speaker 1: you again sometime soon? I would love it. Thanks so

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Speaker 1: much when you drove listening FM Washington and Baltimore. We've

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Speaker 1: got a lot to talk about on Super Tuesday, about

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Speaker 1: our economics, about our politics. Trying to give you that

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Speaker 1: this morning, a little less hysterian, a more uh take

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Speaker 1: towards information that you can use to help form your decision.

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Speaker 1: Futures up, fourteen down, futures up. This is Bloomberg surveillance.

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Speaker 1: We are counting down to the opening mail brought you

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Speaker 1: by the g Grand Cherokee, the most awarded SUV ever.

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Speaker 1: The Grand Cherokee continues to raise the bar with it's

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Speaker 1: alugurious interior and legendary four by four capability. Drive on

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Speaker 1: at your local Jeep dealer today,