1 00:00:01,120 --> 00:00:05,080 Speaker 1: The US dollar is the most important currency for transactions 2 00:00:05,160 --> 00:00:08,760 Speaker 1: between companies and between nations around the world. 3 00:00:09,560 --> 00:00:11,480 Speaker 2: King Dollar does still dominate. 4 00:00:11,720 --> 00:00:14,120 Speaker 3: You don't really have a choice that you have to 5 00:00:14,160 --> 00:00:16,799 Speaker 3: basically engage in US dollars if you want to participate 6 00:00:16,840 --> 00:00:18,840 Speaker 3: in the kind of global financial system. 7 00:00:19,320 --> 00:00:23,040 Speaker 1: Not so for China's currency, the yuan or renminbi. You'll 8 00:00:23,040 --> 00:00:26,880 Speaker 1: often hear those used interchangeably. It accounts for just a 9 00:00:26,960 --> 00:00:32,040 Speaker 1: tiny fraction of global transactions. But China's president Jijenping is 10 00:00:32,200 --> 00:00:35,720 Speaker 1: out to change that. He's pressing to make the yuan 11 00:00:35,840 --> 00:00:40,519 Speaker 1: a rival to the dollar. I'm wes Kosova today on 12 00:00:40,600 --> 00:00:43,560 Speaker 1: the big tag can the yuan not king Dollar off 13 00:00:43,560 --> 00:00:51,120 Speaker 1: its throne? As you might imagine, the answer to that 14 00:00:51,240 --> 00:00:56,800 Speaker 1: question is complicated. Fortunately for US, Bloomberg's George Lay is 15 00:00:56,840 --> 00:01:01,880 Speaker 1: here to break it down in plain language. George, one 16 00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:05,360 Speaker 1: of the reasons why the US is so important to 17 00:01:05,400 --> 00:01:09,360 Speaker 1: the world economy is that the dollar is the most 18 00:01:09,400 --> 00:01:13,000 Speaker 1: widely used currency in the world. Can you give us 19 00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:16,080 Speaker 1: a picture of why the dollar is so important? 20 00:01:16,480 --> 00:01:20,679 Speaker 4: Basically, if we look at international transactions, international finance, or 21 00:01:20,720 --> 00:01:24,600 Speaker 4: international trade, the dollar accounts for roughly half of all 22 00:01:24,680 --> 00:01:28,679 Speaker 4: the global trade flows and If you count the Euro, 23 00:01:28,880 --> 00:01:32,440 Speaker 4: that's another twenty five percent. So dollar and euro combined 24 00:01:32,640 --> 00:01:36,479 Speaker 4: the account for roughly three quarters of all global transactions, 25 00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:40,360 Speaker 4: whether it's person to person, whether it's between companies, and 26 00:01:40,440 --> 00:01:44,280 Speaker 4: whether it's between state entities. So, just to give you 27 00:01:44,319 --> 00:01:48,000 Speaker 4: an example, if China wants to buy iron, ore or 28 00:01:48,040 --> 00:01:52,600 Speaker 4: other commodities from Brazil, the most common kind of transaction 29 00:01:52,760 --> 00:01:56,600 Speaker 4: currency is the US dollar, And if someone based in 30 00:01:56,640 --> 00:02:01,480 Speaker 4: Canada wants to wire money to Mexico, the intermediary currency 31 00:02:01,600 --> 00:02:04,760 Speaker 4: is the US dollar. So it gives the United States 32 00:02:04,760 --> 00:02:07,880 Speaker 4: a lot of advantage, but it also raises a lot 33 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:12,400 Speaker 4: of questions among people elsewhere, especially among people and among 34 00:02:12,480 --> 00:02:15,960 Speaker 4: countries that are not in the US and in Europe. 35 00:02:16,200 --> 00:02:19,320 Speaker 4: Back in April, when the President of Brazil visited Beijing, 36 00:02:19,480 --> 00:02:23,640 Speaker 4: he asked a question, why should trades between China and 37 00:02:23,720 --> 00:02:26,800 Speaker 4: Brazil be settled in the currency that is neither the 38 00:02:26,880 --> 00:02:30,079 Speaker 4: Chinese you are nor the Brazilian reality. 39 00:02:31,480 --> 00:02:34,640 Speaker 5: Every night, I asked myself, why should every country have 40 00:02:34,760 --> 00:02:37,680 Speaker 5: to be tied to the dollar for trade? Why can 41 00:02:37,720 --> 00:02:40,880 Speaker 5: we trade tied to our own councy, and why don't 42 00:02:40,880 --> 00:02:42,400 Speaker 5: we have the community to re it? 43 00:02:44,040 --> 00:02:48,440 Speaker 4: Okay, you know, compan do you not that. So a 44 00:02:48,440 --> 00:02:51,560 Speaker 4: lot of countries want to to circumvent the US dollar 45 00:02:51,639 --> 00:02:55,359 Speaker 4: as a payment currency for various reasons, economic reasons as 46 00:02:55,360 --> 00:02:56,720 Speaker 4: well as political reasons. 47 00:02:58,440 --> 00:03:02,000 Speaker 1: So why is the dollar and to a certain extent, 48 00:03:02,040 --> 00:03:05,360 Speaker 1: the euro why have they become the default currencies for 49 00:03:05,480 --> 00:03:07,959 Speaker 1: so many international transactions. 50 00:03:08,400 --> 00:03:11,120 Speaker 4: A lot of it has to do with history, with 51 00:03:11,240 --> 00:03:15,400 Speaker 4: the history of the global academy and global trade, because traditionally, 52 00:03:15,760 --> 00:03:18,600 Speaker 4: if we look at the past thirty forty years, the 53 00:03:18,720 --> 00:03:22,440 Speaker 4: US and European ecademies, they account for a big part 54 00:03:22,480 --> 00:03:24,520 Speaker 4: of the global economy and a big part of the 55 00:03:24,560 --> 00:03:30,040 Speaker 4: global trade. It is rapidly changing with China joining the picture. 56 00:03:30,400 --> 00:03:32,880 Speaker 4: So China has been doing a lot of trades with 57 00:03:33,639 --> 00:03:38,400 Speaker 4: other countries, non US, non European countries. So that's on 58 00:03:38,400 --> 00:03:41,560 Speaker 4: one hand. On the other hand, it is because the 59 00:03:41,720 --> 00:03:46,040 Speaker 4: US and Europe provide the most liquid financial markets when 60 00:03:46,080 --> 00:03:49,240 Speaker 4: it comes to using these currency. So if a country 61 00:03:49,560 --> 00:03:52,320 Speaker 4: receives the US dollars, it can do a lot with 62 00:03:52,440 --> 00:03:55,720 Speaker 4: these dollars. It could invest in US treasury markets, it 63 00:03:55,760 --> 00:03:59,560 Speaker 4: could invest in US stock market, and it could invest 64 00:03:59,640 --> 00:04:04,800 Speaker 4: them money in the US in terms of foreign direct investments, factories, 65 00:04:04,840 --> 00:04:09,520 Speaker 4: and other stuff. The same rule applies in Europe, but 66 00:04:09,680 --> 00:04:13,160 Speaker 4: it is not really the case in China. China still 67 00:04:13,240 --> 00:04:16,280 Speaker 4: has capital controls, So if you want to invest in 68 00:04:16,360 --> 00:04:19,680 Speaker 4: Chinese bands, if you want to invest in Chinese stock markets, 69 00:04:20,080 --> 00:04:23,280 Speaker 4: there are a lot more bureau credit controls than in 70 00:04:23,440 --> 00:04:27,080 Speaker 4: US and Europe. So that also explains why countries would 71 00:04:27,120 --> 00:04:29,880 Speaker 4: prefer to be paid in the US dollar and the 72 00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:33,960 Speaker 4: euro instead of the Chinese yuan or the Brazilian reality 73 00:04:34,080 --> 00:04:35,200 Speaker 4: or the Indian rupee. 74 00:04:36,080 --> 00:04:40,680 Speaker 1: But now you report that China is becoming more assertive 75 00:04:40,960 --> 00:04:45,480 Speaker 1: in wanting to make the uan's currency a currency that 76 00:04:45,560 --> 00:04:48,359 Speaker 1: plays in international markets much more. 77 00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:53,960 Speaker 4: Yes, that's exactly the case, especially after the war in Ukraine, 78 00:04:54,000 --> 00:04:58,560 Speaker 4: because the leadership in Beijing witnessed the sanctions both by 79 00:04:58,560 --> 00:05:02,200 Speaker 4: the US and by Europe piled upon Russia, and they 80 00:05:02,240 --> 00:05:06,680 Speaker 4: realize that conducting transactions in the US and Europe might 81 00:05:06,760 --> 00:05:09,560 Speaker 4: not be a safe choice. They really want to have 82 00:05:09,600 --> 00:05:14,560 Speaker 4: some alternative just in case similar centris were imposed on China. 83 00:05:14,600 --> 00:05:18,960 Speaker 1: And this is also part of the general growing rivalry 84 00:05:19,000 --> 00:05:20,680 Speaker 1: between the US and China. 85 00:05:20,760 --> 00:05:21,279 Speaker 5: Is that right? 86 00:05:22,080 --> 00:05:26,480 Speaker 4: Yeah? Exactly. So, as you mentioned, there this ongoing geopolitical 87 00:05:26,800 --> 00:05:29,919 Speaker 4: rivalry between the US and China, and Beijing wants to 88 00:05:30,000 --> 00:05:35,240 Speaker 4: have alternatives to everything that so far has been US dominated. 89 00:05:35,440 --> 00:05:39,080 Speaker 4: Beijing is trying to get companies to listed in Hong Kong, 90 00:05:39,279 --> 00:05:42,400 Speaker 4: which they think it's a safer choice as a financial 91 00:05:42,480 --> 00:05:46,520 Speaker 4: center than New York. Beijing is trying to push for 92 00:05:46,960 --> 00:05:51,280 Speaker 4: domestically produced computer chips, and at the same time, Beijing 93 00:05:51,400 --> 00:05:55,520 Speaker 4: is also trying to make sure that transactions, especially commodities, 94 00:05:55,600 --> 00:05:59,599 Speaker 4: transactions that are vital to China's economy, that are vital 95 00:05:59,600 --> 00:06:03,440 Speaker 4: to china national security, can be more or less settled 96 00:06:03,480 --> 00:06:07,080 Speaker 4: in China's own currency instead of relying on the US 97 00:06:07,160 --> 00:06:08,040 Speaker 4: dollar or the euro. 98 00:06:09,360 --> 00:06:11,359 Speaker 1: So you can see why China would want to do this, 99 00:06:11,480 --> 00:06:15,200 Speaker 1: But what is the appeal to other nations to adopt 100 00:06:15,320 --> 00:06:19,640 Speaker 1: Chinese currency instead of continuing to do transactions in the 101 00:06:19,720 --> 00:06:20,560 Speaker 1: dollar of the euro. 102 00:06:21,360 --> 00:06:25,919 Speaker 4: I think first it's the diversification benefits. Let's take Russia 103 00:06:25,960 --> 00:06:29,480 Speaker 4: for example. Before the war in Ukraine, China and Russia 104 00:06:29,520 --> 00:06:33,240 Speaker 4: has also been pushing for the use of the Chinese 105 00:06:33,360 --> 00:06:36,280 Speaker 4: rooming bee, but with very limited success. 106 00:06:36,520 --> 00:06:41,159 Speaker 1: But Russia plans to cut dollar holdings in wealth fun 107 00:06:42,080 --> 00:06:42,880 Speaker 1: to zero. 108 00:06:43,400 --> 00:06:46,000 Speaker 4: After the war. The rooming bee payments and rooming bee 109 00:06:46,080 --> 00:06:49,680 Speaker 4: transactions in Russia has really taken off. The Chinese UN 110 00:06:49,839 --> 00:06:53,200 Speaker 4: has replaced both the US and the Euro as the 111 00:06:53,240 --> 00:06:57,760 Speaker 4: most traded currency on the Moscow Exchange. So Russia might 112 00:06:57,800 --> 00:07:00,720 Speaker 4: be in more extreme case because the country has been 113 00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:04,520 Speaker 4: cut off from both US and eurofunding, so it has 114 00:07:04,560 --> 00:07:07,080 Speaker 4: to rely on the Chinese ran. But it also serves 115 00:07:07,120 --> 00:07:11,200 Speaker 4: as an example to other countries they see that using 116 00:07:11,240 --> 00:07:14,840 Speaker 4: the Chinese ruan could be a success. In the case 117 00:07:14,880 --> 00:07:18,280 Speaker 4: of Russia, with the UN, the Russia could continue to 118 00:07:18,360 --> 00:07:21,320 Speaker 4: export its oil to Beijing, and with the Chinese UN 119 00:07:21,440 --> 00:07:24,320 Speaker 4: it could import a lot of goods which were produced 120 00:07:24,360 --> 00:07:27,440 Speaker 4: by China. So we're not talking about the Chinese ruan 121 00:07:27,680 --> 00:07:31,120 Speaker 4: replacing the US dollar or the euro. Actually, in the 122 00:07:31,200 --> 00:07:33,480 Speaker 4: medium term, if we look at the next five to 123 00:07:33,560 --> 00:07:37,560 Speaker 4: ten years, very few people are forecasting the Chinese you 124 00:07:37,680 --> 00:07:41,560 Speaker 4: are surpassing the dollar or euro as the most important 125 00:07:42,280 --> 00:07:46,000 Speaker 4: currency of international trade. But the UN could provide some 126 00:07:46,120 --> 00:07:50,320 Speaker 4: diversification benefits, and other countries could look at the geopolitical 127 00:07:50,360 --> 00:07:52,960 Speaker 4: picture and say, hey, I don't want to put all 128 00:07:53,080 --> 00:07:56,040 Speaker 4: my ads in the dollar and in the Europe. I 129 00:07:56,120 --> 00:07:58,520 Speaker 4: could continue to be using the dollar using the Europe, 130 00:07:58,640 --> 00:08:01,520 Speaker 4: but we could make five or ten percent of our 131 00:08:01,560 --> 00:08:04,000 Speaker 4: trades in Chinese uan terms. 132 00:08:04,720 --> 00:08:09,760 Speaker 1: You mentioned specifically how Russia has been adapting Chinese currency 133 00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:16,320 Speaker 1: for that reason to circumvent these sanctions. Is this a 134 00:08:16,440 --> 00:08:20,720 Speaker 1: way that countries that are seeking to get around US 135 00:08:20,760 --> 00:08:25,200 Speaker 1: sanctions are increasingly using just simply to avoid the dollar altogether. 136 00:08:26,280 --> 00:08:29,480 Speaker 4: I think it's still too early to tell, because if 137 00:08:29,520 --> 00:08:32,480 Speaker 4: you look at the countries that are subject to a 138 00:08:32,480 --> 00:08:37,240 Speaker 4: lot of US centrics, what we're talking about is Russia, Iran, 139 00:08:37,720 --> 00:08:41,280 Speaker 4: North Korea. I think these are the most prominent examples. 140 00:08:41,880 --> 00:08:46,400 Speaker 4: Russia is the country with the biggest economic size among 141 00:08:46,480 --> 00:08:49,880 Speaker 4: all these we've talked about. Russia has a trillion dollar economy, 142 00:08:49,920 --> 00:08:52,920 Speaker 4: and Russia has a lot of business to do with China, 143 00:08:53,000 --> 00:08:55,959 Speaker 4: and Russia has really a big consumer base. It's a 144 00:08:56,000 --> 00:08:59,680 Speaker 4: country with population of more than one hundred million people. 145 00:09:00,160 --> 00:09:03,600 Speaker 4: And also Russia is cut off from the eurosystem as well, 146 00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:08,320 Speaker 4: where it runs oil exports can still be priced and 147 00:09:08,480 --> 00:09:12,960 Speaker 4: executed in euros. So we're really talking about in the 148 00:09:13,000 --> 00:09:17,600 Speaker 4: experimental case of a big country, a trilling dollar economy 149 00:09:17,720 --> 00:09:21,040 Speaker 4: with more than one hundred million people that at this 150 00:09:21,200 --> 00:09:25,240 Speaker 4: point they were forced off the eurosystem and forced off 151 00:09:25,280 --> 00:09:28,600 Speaker 4: the dollar system. But if it succeeds. China could just 152 00:09:28,840 --> 00:09:31,520 Speaker 4: really take Russia as an example and go to other 153 00:09:31,600 --> 00:09:36,360 Speaker 4: countries that are under US sanctions or that are not 154 00:09:36,600 --> 00:09:40,360 Speaker 4: really on friendly terms with the US and say, hey, 155 00:09:40,440 --> 00:09:43,800 Speaker 4: this could really work. Why don't you consider using my 156 00:09:44,000 --> 00:09:45,040 Speaker 4: currency as well? 157 00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:53,040 Speaker 1: And can you explain how Russia using yuan would enable 158 00:09:53,080 --> 00:09:56,720 Speaker 1: it to get around US sanctions? How does that actually work? 159 00:09:57,240 --> 00:10:01,120 Speaker 4: Because now let's take oil exports for them. Russia is 160 00:10:01,160 --> 00:10:04,400 Speaker 4: not allowed to export oil to the US, it's not 161 00:10:04,480 --> 00:10:07,679 Speaker 4: allowed to export oil to the European Union, but it 162 00:10:07,720 --> 00:10:11,760 Speaker 4: is still permitted to export oil elsewhere. And still Russia 163 00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:15,360 Speaker 4: exports oil to China and India, let's say, if they 164 00:10:15,520 --> 00:10:19,080 Speaker 4: take their payments in the US dollars or in the euro. 165 00:10:19,320 --> 00:10:23,360 Speaker 4: It is very difficult for Russia to dispose of these 166 00:10:23,400 --> 00:10:27,559 Speaker 4: currencies because there are many restrictions on how or where 167 00:10:27,640 --> 00:10:32,439 Speaker 4: Russia could deposit its affects reserves, how Russia can use it, 168 00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:36,560 Speaker 4: and what kind of products Russia can buy. But if 169 00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:40,880 Speaker 4: in Russian entity still holds US dollars and euros and 170 00:10:41,000 --> 00:10:44,480 Speaker 4: still make transactions in US dollars and euros, it is 171 00:10:44,600 --> 00:10:47,920 Speaker 4: subject to a lot of restrictions. But if it holds 172 00:10:47,960 --> 00:10:52,559 Speaker 4: the Chinese UN. It is subject to practically no restrictions. 173 00:10:52,920 --> 00:10:55,560 Speaker 4: Of course, if you're holding the Chinese UN there are 174 00:10:55,600 --> 00:10:58,880 Speaker 4: certain goods that you cannot buy. It's it's difficult for 175 00:10:58,960 --> 00:11:01,280 Speaker 4: you to take the US and say, hey, I want 176 00:11:01,320 --> 00:11:03,560 Speaker 4: to buy a BMW or I want to buy some 177 00:11:03,720 --> 00:11:07,160 Speaker 4: US products. But they could buy a lot of stuff 178 00:11:07,200 --> 00:11:10,560 Speaker 4: that are produced by China, or buy countries that are 179 00:11:11,160 --> 00:11:13,959 Speaker 4: not part of the euro or the US dollar system. 180 00:11:14,200 --> 00:11:18,720 Speaker 4: Say they could buy Brazilian soy, they could buy Argentinian wheat. 181 00:11:19,240 --> 00:11:22,400 Speaker 4: And now most of these transactions were still done in 182 00:11:22,440 --> 00:11:26,120 Speaker 4: the US dollar euro. But if the RUN system becomes successful, 183 00:11:26,160 --> 00:11:28,800 Speaker 4: they could take the gun and go to South America 184 00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:31,120 Speaker 4: to buy a lot of food stuff. They could take 185 00:11:31,160 --> 00:11:34,760 Speaker 4: the gun to China to buy cars, to buy machinery, 186 00:11:35,320 --> 00:11:38,840 Speaker 4: to buy druns. For example, a lot of the civilian 187 00:11:38,840 --> 00:11:43,160 Speaker 4: news drones were exported by Chinese companies, so they could 188 00:11:43,240 --> 00:11:46,560 Speaker 4: in the sense, replace a lot of its merchandise needs 189 00:11:46,600 --> 00:11:50,199 Speaker 4: that are currently supplied by the US and by European countries. 190 00:11:51,360 --> 00:11:55,680 Speaker 1: After the break, Chinese currency slowly starts to work its way. 191 00:11:55,720 --> 00:12:07,360 Speaker 6: In Argentina will use the yuan for trade with China 192 00:12:07,440 --> 00:12:10,200 Speaker 6: and then stop. This month, the Chinese National Oil Company 193 00:12:10,200 --> 00:12:14,600 Speaker 6: completing its first LNG trade with France's Hotel Energy using 194 00:12:14,960 --> 00:12:18,840 Speaker 6: the Chinese yuan. Saudi Arabia is in discussions with China 195 00:12:18,960 --> 00:12:21,439 Speaker 6: to price some of its oil sales in Yon. 196 00:12:22,120 --> 00:12:26,000 Speaker 1: George, you mentioned Brazil as one country that's starting to 197 00:12:26,080 --> 00:12:29,680 Speaker 1: question why everything is done in dollars in euros and 198 00:12:29,720 --> 00:12:32,920 Speaker 1: are looking at Chinese currency as an alternative. What are 199 00:12:32,960 --> 00:12:35,120 Speaker 1: some other countries that are doing the same. 200 00:12:36,080 --> 00:12:41,440 Speaker 4: Argentina, for instance, Argentina has a effect swap line with China, 201 00:12:41,559 --> 00:12:45,800 Speaker 4: which means the Argentine Central Bank could access the Chinese 202 00:12:45,840 --> 00:12:48,480 Speaker 4: yuan if it needs. There's a quota on it, but 203 00:12:48,559 --> 00:12:51,679 Speaker 4: they could access a few billions of dollars worth of 204 00:12:51,679 --> 00:12:54,760 Speaker 4: the Chinese uit and they are recently tapping that swap 205 00:12:54,760 --> 00:12:58,800 Speaker 4: line Brazil, as we mentioned, and back in March, China 206 00:12:58,880 --> 00:13:02,360 Speaker 4: and Saudi Arabia signed the deal in which a Chinese 207 00:13:02,400 --> 00:13:06,400 Speaker 4: state bank lent money to Saudi Arabia in Chinese rooming 208 00:13:06,440 --> 00:13:11,320 Speaker 4: bee terms. They're increasingly more Western companies also using Chinese 209 00:13:11,400 --> 00:13:15,360 Speaker 4: run as a settlement currency. In March, the French energy 210 00:13:15,360 --> 00:13:19,040 Speaker 4: company Total Energy, they signed the deal with Chinese National 211 00:13:19,080 --> 00:13:23,000 Speaker 4: Offshore Oil Corporation to settle a natural gas trade in 212 00:13:23,040 --> 00:13:25,839 Speaker 4: the Chinese Rooming Bee and over the past couple of 213 00:13:26,000 --> 00:13:30,880 Speaker 4: years Australian miners, including BHP, including real Tinto that have 214 00:13:31,080 --> 00:13:35,760 Speaker 4: signed contracts with various Chinese state companies to settle iron 215 00:13:35,800 --> 00:13:40,000 Speaker 4: ore trades in the Chinese run. I think it's really 216 00:13:40,320 --> 00:13:45,320 Speaker 4: symbolic in terms of China really pushing to have these 217 00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:50,320 Speaker 4: transactions with companies based in developed countries, let's say a 218 00:13:50,320 --> 00:13:54,480 Speaker 4: French company or BHP in Australia. There's still a lot 219 00:13:54,559 --> 00:13:57,800 Speaker 4: of hurdles for China to try to make you a 220 00:13:58,120 --> 00:14:00,800 Speaker 4: sort of the default currents see you, or try to 221 00:14:00,880 --> 00:14:04,800 Speaker 4: make you a major part of the transaction, because now 222 00:14:05,160 --> 00:14:09,400 Speaker 4: if you're doing business with Friends or Australia, probably ninety 223 00:14:09,480 --> 00:14:12,520 Speaker 4: nine percent of the transactions wouldn't be settled in the 224 00:14:12,600 --> 00:14:16,120 Speaker 4: Chinese run. But at the same time, China is a 225 00:14:16,480 --> 00:14:20,080 Speaker 4: major customer. China is one of the biggest buyers of 226 00:14:20,400 --> 00:14:23,360 Speaker 4: natural gas, of oil, of iron ores, so it does 227 00:14:23,440 --> 00:14:26,680 Speaker 4: have some leverage. I think now people realize it is 228 00:14:26,840 --> 00:14:31,600 Speaker 4: a major policy imperative from high up that China wants 229 00:14:31,640 --> 00:14:34,600 Speaker 4: to get the remain me to play a bigger role 230 00:14:34,640 --> 00:14:38,120 Speaker 4: in terms of trade, in terms of settlements, especially in 231 00:14:38,160 --> 00:14:42,040 Speaker 4: commodities trades. So Chinese state companies, which are the major 232 00:14:42,080 --> 00:14:46,359 Speaker 4: buyers of these commodities, would really make the push to say, 233 00:14:46,400 --> 00:14:49,280 Speaker 4: if I do business with you, I want a certain 234 00:14:49,520 --> 00:14:54,080 Speaker 4: percentage of the deals settled in the Chinese run, whether 235 00:14:54,080 --> 00:14:57,920 Speaker 4: you're a French company, an Australian company, or a Brazilian company. 236 00:14:58,320 --> 00:15:02,080 Speaker 4: And I think these companies, the sellers, do have an 237 00:15:02,160 --> 00:15:06,240 Speaker 4: incentive to satisfy the demands of the buyers in a sense, 238 00:15:06,280 --> 00:15:09,680 Speaker 4: to satisfy the demands of your client. So China could 239 00:15:09,840 --> 00:15:13,520 Speaker 4: really make the push to have a certain amount let's 240 00:15:13,520 --> 00:15:16,000 Speaker 4: say one percent or two percent of the total trade 241 00:15:16,080 --> 00:15:20,280 Speaker 4: volume settled in un But once you want to push further, 242 00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:22,560 Speaker 4: once you want to do let's say five percent or 243 00:15:22,640 --> 00:15:26,240 Speaker 4: ten percent. And these companies with the Chinese U and 244 00:15:26,240 --> 00:15:29,800 Speaker 4: they still have limited access to Chinese markets, to Chinese starts, 245 00:15:29,800 --> 00:15:33,920 Speaker 4: to Chinese bonds, so they might need to make reforms, 246 00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:38,440 Speaker 4: make further reforms in their markets so that for companies 247 00:15:38,520 --> 00:15:41,800 Speaker 4: having tens of billions of dollars worth of yourn, they 248 00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:44,520 Speaker 4: need to find somewhere to invest in. China need to 249 00:15:44,520 --> 00:15:47,640 Speaker 4: make its markets attractive to these investments. 250 00:15:49,880 --> 00:15:54,600 Speaker 1: If other developed countries start seeing more of these deals 251 00:15:54,840 --> 00:15:57,720 Speaker 1: taking place. Do you think that will lead to an 252 00:15:57,800 --> 00:16:02,880 Speaker 1: increase in the willingness of other companies other countries to 253 00:16:03,040 --> 00:16:06,240 Speaker 1: take a look at this currency, even though it's not 254 00:16:06,400 --> 00:16:07,320 Speaker 1: fully convertible. 255 00:16:08,320 --> 00:16:12,200 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think absolutely other companies and other countries would 256 00:16:12,280 --> 00:16:16,120 Speaker 4: absolutely be looking at this and they would be thinking 257 00:16:16,160 --> 00:16:20,080 Speaker 4: about this as an alternative, because if things go right, 258 00:16:20,360 --> 00:16:25,119 Speaker 4: Chinese yuan has the potential to become the third widely 259 00:16:25,240 --> 00:16:29,400 Speaker 4: used currency in terms of global trade and global finance. 260 00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:31,760 Speaker 1: Do you think that's going to happen? Do you think 261 00:16:31,800 --> 00:16:37,440 Speaker 1: that China's currency will become the third major currency in 262 00:16:37,480 --> 00:16:39,000 Speaker 1: the world at some point? 263 00:16:39,840 --> 00:16:44,280 Speaker 4: I think if they play the cards right, if they 264 00:16:44,880 --> 00:16:50,440 Speaker 4: proceed with the same sense of urgency, if they and 265 00:16:50,600 --> 00:16:53,200 Speaker 4: at the same time they really need to continue to 266 00:16:53,200 --> 00:16:57,120 Speaker 4: make reform to their financial market, to their financial system 267 00:16:57,400 --> 00:17:00,640 Speaker 4: over the next five to ten years, it's quite possible 268 00:17:00,680 --> 00:17:03,960 Speaker 4: for the Chinese you and to become the third most 269 00:17:04,200 --> 00:17:08,440 Speaker 4: used currency in global trade and global finance, exceeding all 270 00:17:08,440 --> 00:17:11,639 Speaker 4: the other non dollar, non euro currencies that we're talking about, 271 00:17:11,680 --> 00:17:16,040 Speaker 4: Canading dollar, Japanese and British pound. The bar for them 272 00:17:16,119 --> 00:17:19,879 Speaker 4: to get close to or even replace the dollar euro 273 00:17:20,080 --> 00:17:24,719 Speaker 4: it is extremely high. And also we need to consider 274 00:17:24,800 --> 00:17:28,440 Speaker 4: the scenario because now the US and Europe isn't really 275 00:17:28,480 --> 00:17:33,440 Speaker 4: pushing back on any kind of the un settlement projects 276 00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:37,320 Speaker 4: or un settlement deals. So now the Chinese un is 277 00:17:37,400 --> 00:17:40,800 Speaker 4: roughly somewhere between one percent and two percent of global 278 00:17:40,920 --> 00:17:46,280 Speaker 4: trade and global finance global settlements. So once we reach 279 00:17:46,520 --> 00:17:50,040 Speaker 4: a level of five percent or even ten percent, there 280 00:17:50,200 --> 00:17:52,320 Speaker 4: is going to be I'm pretty sure there is going 281 00:17:52,359 --> 00:17:55,760 Speaker 4: to be a strong response from US and Europe saying 282 00:17:55,800 --> 00:17:58,560 Speaker 4: that we've got to stop this, because this is really 283 00:17:58,720 --> 00:18:01,720 Speaker 4: threatening the role of the dollar into a less serch 284 00:18:01,760 --> 00:18:05,360 Speaker 4: than euro in terms of the global financial ecosystem. 285 00:18:06,520 --> 00:18:09,440 Speaker 1: George, thanks so much for coming on the show Central West. 286 00:18:10,400 --> 00:18:14,119 Speaker 1: When we come back, how China's currency push fits into 287 00:18:14,119 --> 00:18:26,719 Speaker 1: the nation's larger global ambitions. What we're talking about today 288 00:18:26,920 --> 00:18:29,639 Speaker 1: is part of a larger effort by Xi Jinping to 289 00:18:29,880 --> 00:18:33,800 Speaker 1: increase China's stature in global affairs and of course his 290 00:18:33,840 --> 00:18:38,200 Speaker 1: own as well. Bloomberg reporter Rebecca Chung Wilkins is back 291 00:18:38,240 --> 00:18:43,320 Speaker 1: with us again today to tell us all about that. Rebecca, 292 00:18:43,520 --> 00:18:46,760 Speaker 1: China has become more ambitious on the world stage. We 293 00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:51,760 Speaker 1: see Xi Jinping taking a bigger stance on international affairs, 294 00:18:51,800 --> 00:18:55,400 Speaker 1: and now we see this move to make China's currency 295 00:18:55,480 --> 00:18:58,440 Speaker 1: sort of a bigger player in international deals. How are 296 00:18:58,480 --> 00:19:00,000 Speaker 1: those two things tied together? 297 00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:05,320 Speaker 3: For China, the internationalization of its currency has always been 298 00:19:05,440 --> 00:19:08,000 Speaker 3: a critical part of kind of establishing it on the 299 00:19:08,040 --> 00:19:12,119 Speaker 3: world stage and crucially establishing an alternative to the US. 300 00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:14,840 Speaker 3: And of course we know the dollar has this extraordinary 301 00:19:14,880 --> 00:19:18,320 Speaker 3: and unique dominance when it comes to the global currency 302 00:19:18,359 --> 00:19:22,280 Speaker 3: and what currency folks use. But over the last decade 303 00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:25,679 Speaker 3: we've seen Beijing trying to make that push, and particularly 304 00:19:25,720 --> 00:19:28,800 Speaker 3: for example, when we look at trade deals, policy makers 305 00:19:28,880 --> 00:19:32,840 Speaker 3: in China often trying to incorporate or include some element 306 00:19:33,040 --> 00:19:36,880 Speaker 3: of trade settlements in the UN as part of those deals. 307 00:19:37,200 --> 00:19:41,000 Speaker 3: There's been some some momentum already. However, it really is 308 00:19:41,359 --> 00:19:44,840 Speaker 3: Russia's war in Ukraine and that sweeping set of sanctions 309 00:19:44,840 --> 00:19:48,320 Speaker 3: that has seen the acceleration of Yun's use and actually 310 00:19:48,320 --> 00:19:51,320 Speaker 3: has done far more than any policy maker in Beijing 311 00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:53,960 Speaker 3: has ever been able to do to make it more 312 00:19:53,960 --> 00:19:55,520 Speaker 3: commonly used in the world. 313 00:19:56,119 --> 00:20:00,800 Speaker 1: Which countries in particular have begun to take it. Advantage 314 00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:07,120 Speaker 1: of this new arrangement, especially when the dollar now has 315 00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:10,600 Speaker 1: become off limits to certain countries because of sanctions. 316 00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:14,000 Speaker 3: Well, if we think sort of purely in geopolitical terms, 317 00:20:14,080 --> 00:20:17,840 Speaker 3: countries as their position somewhere between an allegiance or a 318 00:20:17,920 --> 00:20:20,920 Speaker 3: leaning towards the US versus China, and what we tend 319 00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:24,119 Speaker 3: to see is countries that may have an inclination towards leading, 320 00:20:24,240 --> 00:20:27,480 Speaker 3: either as full formal partners of China or perhaps just 321 00:20:27,560 --> 00:20:31,240 Speaker 3: more inclined, they tend to be much more interested. So, 322 00:20:31,280 --> 00:20:34,600 Speaker 3: for example, we've seen recent deals by Middle Eastern countries. 323 00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:38,919 Speaker 3: We tend to see more attention and more enthusiasm for 324 00:20:39,080 --> 00:20:42,280 Speaker 3: these types of countries, countries that we may see also 325 00:20:42,359 --> 00:20:45,160 Speaker 3: that China has made much more an effort to engage 326 00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:48,480 Speaker 3: with typically countries sometimes called the Global South. 327 00:20:49,200 --> 00:20:52,280 Speaker 2: What's surprising though, is increasingly. 328 00:20:51,600 --> 00:20:54,960 Speaker 3: As the UN has become more popular, we have seen 329 00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:58,600 Speaker 3: even for example, France one of its companies, choosing to 330 00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:00,960 Speaker 3: settle a trade deal in the UN as well. 331 00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:05,120 Speaker 1: What do you foresee? How long do you think before 332 00:21:05,560 --> 00:21:10,359 Speaker 1: yon winds up becoming a significant currency that competes with 333 00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:14,120 Speaker 1: the dollar, that competes with the euro for transactions all 334 00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:14,800 Speaker 1: over the place. 335 00:21:15,600 --> 00:21:17,760 Speaker 3: I've asked a lot of traders what they think about this, 336 00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:21,080 Speaker 3: and the answer I always care is it depends, and 337 00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:23,760 Speaker 3: I get answers that go anywhere between ten years and 338 00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:26,560 Speaker 3: one hundred or two hundred years. And I think the 339 00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:31,199 Speaker 3: factor that really affects that is geopolitical, whether there we 340 00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:34,480 Speaker 3: see this urgent need to create an alternative, and when 341 00:21:34,520 --> 00:21:37,040 Speaker 3: we look at, for example, how important Russia's were in 342 00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:39,959 Speaker 3: Ukraine has been to kind of pushing momentum for the 343 00:21:40,080 --> 00:21:42,359 Speaker 3: use of the UN, you can see these type of 344 00:21:42,359 --> 00:21:46,119 Speaker 3: events can be critical in changing that balance. The percentage 345 00:21:46,160 --> 00:21:48,639 Speaker 3: is very, very small so far, but if you have 346 00:21:48,800 --> 00:21:52,440 Speaker 3: these sort of big geopolitical events, they can totally change 347 00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:55,960 Speaker 3: the balance, and relatively quickly. We're talking about a year 348 00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:57,399 Speaker 3: essentially of sanctions. 349 00:21:57,960 --> 00:21:58,760 Speaker 2: The one big. 350 00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:03,600 Speaker 3: Question, of course, is whether and how far the economic 351 00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:07,120 Speaker 3: state craft agenda goes when it comes to the US 352 00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:09,679 Speaker 3: and its allies. How far are the US and allies 353 00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:12,840 Speaker 3: going to go when it comes to containing China as 354 00:22:12,840 --> 00:22:15,840 Speaker 3: it would call it, and trying to curb China's influence. 355 00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:15,960 Speaker 2: In the world. 356 00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:19,800 Speaker 3: The more it does so, the more incentive there is 357 00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:23,080 Speaker 3: for China into particular to really drive home that agenda, 358 00:22:23,119 --> 00:22:25,280 Speaker 3: and of course all the countries around it that want 359 00:22:25,320 --> 00:22:28,480 Speaker 3: to continue doing trade with it. I think the way 360 00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:32,320 Speaker 3: China sees it is not necessarily a bipolar system, but 361 00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:37,000 Speaker 3: a multipolar system where countries have much more autonomy and essentially, 362 00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:39,399 Speaker 3: as they see it, are not under the thumb of 363 00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:42,159 Speaker 3: the US. So there is this alternative to pit and 364 00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:45,120 Speaker 3: there's a real alternative to pick. Of course, that point, 365 00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:48,800 Speaker 3: king dollar does still dominate. You don't really have a 366 00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:51,480 Speaker 3: choice that you have to basically engage in US dollars 367 00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:53,159 Speaker 3: if you want it to participate in the kind of 368 00:22:53,160 --> 00:22:57,240 Speaker 3: global financial system. It's really that shift in balance that 369 00:22:57,280 --> 00:23:00,840 Speaker 3: they want, not necessarily ultimately to be picking between one 370 00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:03,680 Speaker 3: and the other. And I would imagine also there is 371 00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:06,800 Speaker 3: some element in which ultimately there would be a desire. 372 00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:08,000 Speaker 2: For this to be more neutral. 373 00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:10,920 Speaker 3: You know, these sort of issues now have become politicized 374 00:23:10,960 --> 00:23:13,040 Speaker 3: in a way that they haven't been in the past, 375 00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:16,920 Speaker 3: and I suppose ultimately there perhaps would be this desire 376 00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:19,879 Speaker 3: for Chinese policymakers for the use of the UN to 377 00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:22,080 Speaker 3: not be seen in fact as a way of a 378 00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:25,440 Speaker 3: mechanism of picking sides, but simply as a mechanism is 379 00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:27,600 Speaker 3: simply of doing business in a world, a world in 380 00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:29,600 Speaker 3: which China is much more powerful. 381 00:23:31,440 --> 00:23:34,960 Speaker 1: I suppose. In order for that to happen, it would 382 00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:39,120 Speaker 1: require the US, it would require EU countries to accept 383 00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:43,200 Speaker 1: you on as another currency. It couldn't just go one way, 384 00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:45,920 Speaker 1: and we haven't seen much evidence of that happening. 385 00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:49,520 Speaker 3: No, And that again speaks to the sort of very 386 00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:53,760 Speaker 3: small percentage of use by the UN so far internationally. 387 00:23:54,080 --> 00:23:57,160 Speaker 3: Although we have seen these sort of sporadic deals mentioned 388 00:23:57,160 --> 00:24:00,879 Speaker 3: for example, French deal, it's still very very small. Given 389 00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:03,480 Speaker 3: the kind of context of US China relations, We're a 390 00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:06,760 Speaker 3: ways away before seeing anything like that from the US, 391 00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:09,280 Speaker 3: but even some of its allies and its partners have 392 00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:11,760 Speaker 3: been relatively slow to engage in this too. 393 00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:15,560 Speaker 1: What would the economic effects for the US, for the 394 00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:20,520 Speaker 1: EUB if the yuon started to encroach on the dollar's 395 00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:23,879 Speaker 1: dominance and even the dominance of the euro. 396 00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:27,480 Speaker 3: It's a really hard question to answer, I think, because 397 00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:30,119 Speaker 3: so much of that would depend on the pace and 398 00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:33,400 Speaker 3: the scale and the reason why we saw that coming 399 00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:37,280 Speaker 3: in if it was introduced in the context of some 400 00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:41,119 Speaker 3: kind of sanctions, for example, being leveraged on China, and 401 00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:44,520 Speaker 3: this really urgent desire to push an alternative that actually 402 00:24:44,560 --> 00:24:47,600 Speaker 3: can function very quickly at the scale that China would 403 00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:50,120 Speaker 3: need it to that of course, would be much more 404 00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:53,080 Speaker 3: challenging to the US. But if we're talking about something 405 00:24:53,119 --> 00:24:56,640 Speaker 3: that's a much more gradual process and that's accompanied by 406 00:24:56,720 --> 00:25:00,520 Speaker 3: some kind of raprochement in kind of geoplisical tension, too, 407 00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:03,760 Speaker 3: we wouldn't necessarily see that happening. And in fact, some 408 00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:08,919 Speaker 3: element of diversification, some element that kind of reduces the 409 00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:12,400 Speaker 3: reliance on the dollar, also is potentially good for other 410 00:25:12,760 --> 00:25:13,920 Speaker 3: developing nations. 411 00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:15,760 Speaker 2: You know. The whole point. 412 00:25:15,560 --> 00:25:19,040 Speaker 3: About having diversity is essentially not to be so vulnerable 413 00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:22,679 Speaker 3: when the dollar moves and so on, and so there 414 00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:25,480 Speaker 3: is also an argument to be made that of somewhat 415 00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:30,200 Speaker 3: more diverse global settlement currency could actually help create a 416 00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:33,680 Speaker 3: bit more stability in some of those emerging markets too. 417 00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:38,359 Speaker 1: So, Rebecca, this is obviously something that a lot of 418 00:25:38,359 --> 00:25:41,040 Speaker 1: people are just keeping an eye on to see how 419 00:25:41,119 --> 00:25:43,959 Speaker 1: it unfolds. As somebody who's covering in this what are 420 00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:45,000 Speaker 1: you watching for. 421 00:25:45,520 --> 00:25:48,359 Speaker 3: I'm really watching to see whether the US or some 422 00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:52,920 Speaker 3: of its closer allies start to be a little bit uncomfortable, 423 00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:55,640 Speaker 3: start to feel like this is getting a little too 424 00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:58,800 Speaker 3: close for comfort. Too many deals are being done. We 425 00:25:58,840 --> 00:26:01,720 Speaker 3: don't really want to allow this happening at a moment 426 00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:06,080 Speaker 3: when tensions between China and the US are so taught. 427 00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:09,280 Speaker 3: So when you think about the G seven nations who 428 00:26:09,400 --> 00:26:14,520 Speaker 3: recently met versus China and Russia and these alternative too 429 00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:18,439 Speaker 3: world orders, we do see this sort of polarization. We 430 00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:22,320 Speaker 3: do this see this divergence, and that inherently does mean 431 00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:27,160 Speaker 3: that what currency you choose is a political decision because. 432 00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:28,080 Speaker 2: Of the world that we're in now. 433 00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:31,800 Speaker 3: So I'm personally interested to see whether we see more 434 00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:37,080 Speaker 3: of this dialogue enter into geopolitical discussions. 435 00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:39,880 Speaker 1: Rebecca, thanks so much for coming on the show. Thank 436 00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:42,560 Speaker 1: you very much for having me, Thanks for listening to 437 00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:44,680 Speaker 1: us here at The Big Take. It's a daily podcast 438 00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:48,200 Speaker 1: from Bloomberg and iHeartRadio. For more shows from iHeartRadio, visit 439 00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:51,960 Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen, and 440 00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:54,800 Speaker 1: we'd love to hear from you emails, questions, or comments 441 00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:58,480 Speaker 1: to Big Take at Bloomberg dot net. The supervising producer 442 00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:01,560 Speaker 1: of The Big Take is Vicky Bergerlan. Our senior producer 443 00:27:01,600 --> 00:27:05,520 Speaker 1: is Catherine Fink. Federica Romanello is our producer. Our associate 444 00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:10,320 Speaker 1: producer is Zenebsidiki. Raphael mcili is our engineer. Our original 445 00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:14,200 Speaker 1: music was composed by Leo Sidrin. I'm West Kasova. We'll 446 00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:16,160 Speaker 1: be back tomorrow with another big take.