WEBVTT - Microsoft Buys Activision Blizzard in $69 Billion Game Deal

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>you the latest news from the world to business and finance,

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<v Speaker 1>pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. Tim. Uh, you know that

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<v Speaker 1>one headline for the World Health Organization about a macron

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<v Speaker 1>won't be the last variant um, but you do you know,

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<v Speaker 1>you're reminded that this thing is gonna linger, hopefully get easier,

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<v Speaker 1>but linger hopefully. Look and we've talked to people about this,

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<v Speaker 1>and we're gonna talk more about this. But the idea

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<v Speaker 1>of going from a pandemic to endemic and the idea

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<v Speaker 1>that amcron could be uh that maybe look here here

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<v Speaker 1>in New York City, the COVID nineteen waves is slowing.

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<v Speaker 1>Cases and hospitalizations are dropping. Dramatically from a peak in

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<v Speaker 1>early January and remaining concentrated among those who are unvaccinated. Carol, Right,

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<v Speaker 1>but now we're hearing also about animals South Africa, Hong Kong,

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<v Speaker 1>Like there's some concerns about that. All right, it's never

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<v Speaker 1>adult day when it comes to COVID. Hey, let's bring

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<v Speaker 1>in our guest, Dr Tom McGinn. He's executive vice president

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<v Speaker 1>of Physician Enterprise of a Common Spirit Health. They've got

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<v Speaker 1>more than a thousand sights in some twenty ones Uh cities.

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<v Speaker 1>Excuse me, in twenty one states, I should say. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>They are a massive team and they see a lot.

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<v Speaker 1>And he's back with us on the phone in New

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<v Speaker 1>York City, Dr McGinn. Nice to have you here with

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<v Speaker 1>Tim and myself. How are you and what are you seeing?

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<v Speaker 1>Great to be back and good to talk to you again. UM. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I don't think we're seeing anything different than what you're

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<v Speaker 1>currently saying. I do think, Um, as you go across

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<v Speaker 1>the country, you can see the cases, particularly in the

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<v Speaker 1>East coast, because you've been stating here in New York

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<v Speaker 1>and Maryland, New Jersey. The number of cases are obviously

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<v Speaker 1>starting to turn down, which is good news. The tough

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<v Speaker 1>news is obviously that hostializations are in other areas picking

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<v Speaker 1>up as this virus moves across the country. So we

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<v Speaker 1>have pockets in areas where we're seeing a little downturn,

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<v Speaker 1>but we have pockets where we're probably at the beginning

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<v Speaker 1>of this inflection. We think we're gonna beat all our

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<v Speaker 1>prior records in the original January phase, the dells a

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<v Speaker 1>way we're gonna We're gonna definitely be in terms of hospitalizations.

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<v Speaker 1>We're going to probably peek over all the prior quote

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<v Speaker 1>unquote records, which is difficult with staffing right now. I

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<v Speaker 1>think that's that's the combination that we're all struggling with.

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<v Speaker 1>So yeah, I mean it's it's obviously not just the

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<v Speaker 1>healthcare industry, but it puts it in sharp relief when

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<v Speaker 1>you know the doctors who have and and and nurses

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<v Speaker 1>who've been doing this for close to two years are

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<v Speaker 1>just under such strain that it's difficult to you know,

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<v Speaker 1>find a place in in in certain hospitals. Hey, Dr McGinn,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm wondering because you have such a unique view of

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<v Speaker 1>what's happening in different parts of the country in more

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<v Speaker 1>than twenty states. How would you characterize the people who

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<v Speaker 1>are hospitalized right now? What can you tell us about

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<v Speaker 1>who's hospitalized you has been vACC needed and boosted versus

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<v Speaker 1>who isn't. Yeah, that's a very good question. I mean

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<v Speaker 1>it's pretty well delineated. Um, I mean the number is

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit very but I would say anywhere from

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<v Speaker 1>six of those admitted are unvaccinated, probably closer and in

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<v Speaker 1>some places, and we do have, um, you know some

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<v Speaker 1>of this. We don't know the number. I think it's

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<v Speaker 1>an interesting question of the incidental COVID, which is kind

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<v Speaker 1>of a misleading term. So example of you know, Mr Smith,

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<v Speaker 1>a young man comes in with an ankle fracture and

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<v Speaker 1>needs to be seeing. They swap and he's positive, so

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<v Speaker 1>he's not very cost of COVID, so he's incidentally diagnosed.

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<v Speaker 1>We don't know what that number looks like. Uh, and

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<v Speaker 1>that could be anywhere from a couple of percentage points,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, maybe it's a ten percent. Now you still

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<v Speaker 1>have to isolate them, you still have to have protection.

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<v Speaker 1>It's still very complicated to manage those patients. But in

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<v Speaker 1>some ways they're not a traditional COVID case. So predominantly

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<v Speaker 1>unvaccinated people are getting admitted to the hospitals. The remainder

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<v Speaker 1>are going to be those with comorbidities that you know, obesity, diabetes, hypertension,

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<v Speaker 1>and cortivascular disease, et cetera. Dr Wicked, I do wonder too,

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<v Speaker 1>are you saying cases where you guys and your teams

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<v Speaker 1>and your emergency room staff are having to make decisions

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<v Speaker 1>because there's just the systems are overloaded and you maybe

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<v Speaker 1>can't have someone come in because maybe it's not because

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<v Speaker 1>of COVID, but for some other reason, you just can't

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<v Speaker 1>let them in because you just don't have the capacity.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, we haven't reached that point. Thank Thankfully, that

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<v Speaker 1>is not something that's happening. The choices that were currently facing,

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<v Speaker 1>and again this is very particular to you different cities

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<v Speaker 1>and different prevalences of the disease that's occurring, is whether

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<v Speaker 1>we can we have to shut down other procedures that

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<v Speaker 1>we do, some of them, you know, are potentially life

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<v Speaker 1>life saving. Maybe we have to have patients go to

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<v Speaker 1>another site for certain things. Some some of our hospitals

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<v Speaker 1>have had to you know, shift out of their elective procedures.

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<v Speaker 1>Sometimes we've had to pull physicians or nurses or advanced

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<v Speaker 1>care providers out of ambilatory sites to come in and

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<v Speaker 1>help cover. So there is an impact, but it's sort

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<v Speaker 1>of an indirect impact. But no one is ever getting

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<v Speaker 1>turned away in the sense that it could not get care.

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<v Speaker 1>But we are pulling things away from other you know,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, resources, the elective procedures for example. Not everyone,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm saying, in small pockets that's happened. What are you

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<v Speaker 1>telling the world at large? I mean, Tim and I

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<v Speaker 1>have had guests on who basically have said, you're all

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<v Speaker 1>going to get this. I'm home because I've had a

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<v Speaker 1>positive rapid and my PCR came back negative. I don't

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<v Speaker 1>have any symptoms. I'm pretty sure it was, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>just a false positive. But nonetheless we're being careful, um,

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<v Speaker 1>which is the right thing to do. But it reminded

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<v Speaker 1>me that if it's not now, it's it's probably just

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<v Speaker 1>a matter of time. Is that the way we need

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<v Speaker 1>to look at it? Well, I would say, well, first

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<v Speaker 1>and foremost, I would say, we all just need to

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<v Speaker 1>just just really focus on doing all the smart things

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<v Speaker 1>because of our hospitals and our health care workers and

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<v Speaker 1>everyone involved in this, we need to do what we can.

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<v Speaker 1>Just just stem this tide. I'm a little nervous with

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<v Speaker 1>all the messaging. Oh this is the waves are coming down,

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<v Speaker 1>and all to that effect. We need to continue to

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<v Speaker 1>get vaccinated boosted. We need to get the influenza shot,

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<v Speaker 1>which is picking up across the United States. We're now

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<v Speaker 1>seeing young children get admitted for influenza and what we

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<v Speaker 1>predicted the over a year ago, the twin demic is

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<v Speaker 1>happening now. And if we all don't get the flu shot,

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<v Speaker 1>we're going to have some struggles there. Will we all

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<v Speaker 1>end up getting it? You know? I don't. I don't

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<v Speaker 1>think so, but you know, certainly a large percentage of

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<v Speaker 1>us will will will have eventually gotten this. But to me,

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<v Speaker 1>that's not the important question. The question is, right now,

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<v Speaker 1>what can we all do? Don't wear a cloth mask,

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<v Speaker 1>by the way, no one should wear a cloth Please

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<v Speaker 1>stop the madness. All right, We're gonna leave it on

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<v Speaker 1>that note, And that's a good piece of advice. Dr

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<v Speaker 1>Tom McGain over Common Spirit Health E V of Physician Enterprise.

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<v Speaker 1>We appreciate his input. Turning us on the phone in

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<v Speaker 1>New York City, this is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol

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<v Speaker 1>Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Boomberg Radio. So, Tim,

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<v Speaker 1>I think about you know, we worry about inflation, we

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<v Speaker 1>worry about central banker policy missteps, we worry about slowing

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<v Speaker 1>anconemic growth and earnings. And then you've got m and

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<v Speaker 1>a record year last year, and those big blockbuster transactions

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<v Speaker 1>they continue. I thought you were gonna say you worry about,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, large technology companies going out of alone. Apparently

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<v Speaker 1>not where you're worried. We are, of course, talking about

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<v Speaker 1>the huge news today Microsoft buying Activision Blizzard, the game publisher,

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<v Speaker 1>and a sixty billion dollar game deal, if approved by

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<v Speaker 1>regulators A key key phrase here, would create the third

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<v Speaker 1>largest game publisher in the world. So let's bring in

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<v Speaker 1>Anara Grana. He is senior analyst of software and I

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<v Speaker 1>T Services at Bloomberg Intelligence. He's on the phone from

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<v Speaker 1>Chicago Onoraga. Heard you on surveillance this morning breaking this

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<v Speaker 1>down as it was, you know, being or crossing. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>are you surprised? Does this make sense? Oh? It does

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<v Speaker 1>make a lot of sense. But I was surprised at

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<v Speaker 1>the same time, only because you know, as you said,

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<v Speaker 1>this is not the season for large, large deals, just

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<v Speaker 1>because the regulators are taking a look at this very closely,

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<v Speaker 1>which is why the surprise is more so the size

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<v Speaker 1>of it and the timing. But you know, the content

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<v Speaker 1>side of it makes a lot of sense. And as

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<v Speaker 1>I think I mentioned that in a couple of places before,

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<v Speaker 1>we expected the gaming content wars to have begun many

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<v Speaker 1>many years ago, and it's just taken a long time

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<v Speaker 1>for them to pan out. So why does the content

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<v Speaker 1>side make sense? Is it specifically for the Xbox platform

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<v Speaker 1>and the newest version of the cloud service that Xbox offers,

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<v Speaker 1>the subscription service that it offers to two people for

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<v Speaker 1>fifteen bucks a month. Or is this about mobile? Is

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<v Speaker 1>it about getting getting onto mobile devices and Microsoft finally

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<v Speaker 1>being able to do that. I think it's all of

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<v Speaker 1>the above. Think about it the same thing. What's happening

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<v Speaker 1>on the Netflix and the Disney arena. The company, the

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<v Speaker 1>distribution channel or how you get the content is going

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<v Speaker 1>to be you know, irrelevant later on whether you see

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<v Speaker 1>the you know, the movie on on the phone or

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<v Speaker 1>through any other leads. But having the content is the

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<v Speaker 1>most important parts. So if you have the biggest screaming franchise,

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<v Speaker 1>then whether you sell that through virtual reality device or

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<v Speaker 1>through excuse me, question, so it doesn't matter. Hey, un

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<v Speaker 1>a RUG, do do regulators have have an issue with this?

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<v Speaker 1>Is that something that investors should be concerned about. I

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<v Speaker 1>think that's the biggest season because you know, that's possibly

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<v Speaker 1>the reason I think with the stocks on date about

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<v Speaker 1>if you two points something, um, I think that remains

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<v Speaker 1>the biggest concern, un RUG. One thing I'm curious about

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<v Speaker 1>Bobby Cootech of Activision Microsoft in Activision, I think it's

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<v Speaker 1>safe to say they're different kinds of companies, and I

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<v Speaker 1>just do wonder, you know, how much of what Activision

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<v Speaker 1>is in terms of its culture, it's types of management,

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<v Speaker 1>it's crucial to keep it to some extent, or do

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<v Speaker 1>you think it just doesn't matter independent, you know, in

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<v Speaker 1>terms of how much it gets integrated into Microsoft. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>that was a big question we had this morning as well,

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<v Speaker 1>and although he was on the call this morning, we

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<v Speaker 1>have since then read that once the dealers closed, he

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<v Speaker 1>will not be part of the company. So I think

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<v Speaker 1>that's a very good thing because one of the things

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<v Speaker 1>we had also said before was when this news broke up,

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<v Speaker 1>the Activation is issues. Um Phil Spencer, Microsoft Gaming CEO

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<v Speaker 1>was very vocal and against it, so we were. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>initially when the first deal break broke out, we were

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<v Speaker 1>surprised that he still remains with the company, but you know,

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<v Speaker 1>in subsequent releases we have heard that he will leave.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, So the question that that I have is

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<v Speaker 1>what other gaming companies are in play now? That if

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<v Speaker 1>regulators approved this and we see the stock reacting for

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<v Speaker 1>competitors like e A and UH, you know among others,

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<v Speaker 1>you be soft, who's in play now? I think all

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<v Speaker 1>of them are in play. I mean it's going to

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<v Speaker 1>be a question of but the question is who's going

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<v Speaker 1>to buy them. I mean, it is going to be

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<v Speaker 1>easier for Amazon or Apple, on Facebook or Google to

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<v Speaker 1>go out and buy so movise companies. I think it's

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<v Speaker 1>going to be tougher for them. I think Microsoft has

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<v Speaker 1>so far evaded the scrutiny of the regulators just because

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<v Speaker 1>you know, they don't have that level of I guess

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<v Speaker 1>a lens on them as some of the other companies too.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, well, we'll be certainly watching out for that

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<v Speaker 1>aspect of this deal. Um Anna rog, thank you so much.

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<v Speaker 1>Good to catch up. Annaa Grana. He's senior analyst of

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<v Speaker 1>Software and I T Services at Bloomberg Intelligence on the

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<v Speaker 1>phone from Chicago. But it's going to be a group

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<v Speaker 1>that's on our radar this year, Tim, Yeah, it certainly is.

0:11:28.559 --> 0:11:30.880
<v Speaker 1>And Microsoft devating regulators right at least for the last

0:11:31.160 --> 0:11:34.040
<v Speaker 1>couple of decades. They have some history there. You're listening

0:11:34.080 --> 0:11:38.200
<v Speaker 1>to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes.

0:11:38.320 --> 0:11:42.640
<v Speaker 1>Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Well. Bloomberg business Week continuing

0:11:42.679 --> 0:11:44.760
<v Speaker 1>to report on the real estate world and its lack

0:11:44.800 --> 0:11:47.760
<v Speaker 1>of diversity and inclusion, and in the upcoming issue of

0:11:47.760 --> 0:11:50.440
<v Speaker 1>the magazine it's out later this week, a story about

0:11:50.480 --> 0:11:55.960
<v Speaker 1>the progressive real estate firm Redfinn that's facing accusations of discrimination. Tim.

0:11:55.960 --> 0:11:57.920
<v Speaker 1>You can also find the story online the stories by

0:11:57.960 --> 0:12:00.199
<v Speaker 1>Peter Robeson and Noah bou Hire. Peter robe us In

0:12:00.280 --> 0:12:03.000
<v Speaker 1>as Projects and Investigations reporter for Bloomberg News. He joins

0:12:03.080 --> 0:12:05.080
<v Speaker 1>us on the phone from Seattle, as does Joel Webber,

0:12:05.120 --> 0:12:06.960
<v Speaker 1>editor at Bloomberg Business Week. He joins us on the

0:12:06.960 --> 0:12:08.800
<v Speaker 1>access line from Brooklyn. Joel. I think a lot of

0:12:08.800 --> 0:12:10.520
<v Speaker 1>people in New York City they know, you know, they

0:12:10.520 --> 0:12:13.439
<v Speaker 1>know about the New York City serves street Street Easy

0:12:13.480 --> 0:12:15.800
<v Speaker 1>and the New York City specific services. And we've talked

0:12:15.800 --> 0:12:19.080
<v Speaker 1>a lot about Zillo. For the uninitiated, redfin what is

0:12:19.120 --> 0:12:24.240
<v Speaker 1>it huge huge provider UM And basically, if you're anywhere

0:12:24.240 --> 0:12:28.120
<v Speaker 1>else uh in the country and or concluded UM, you know,

0:12:28.160 --> 0:12:31.200
<v Speaker 1>the chances are when you when you go UH to

0:12:31.320 --> 0:12:34.400
<v Speaker 1>list your home, like Redfinn could be a place that

0:12:34.600 --> 0:12:37.040
<v Speaker 1>UM you consider UM. And one of the things that

0:12:37.480 --> 0:12:41.400
<v Speaker 1>that they've done is really had a Mid American offering.

0:12:41.440 --> 0:12:45.959
<v Speaker 1>But as Peter and uh No, his reporting goes into UM,

0:12:46.000 --> 0:12:49.720
<v Speaker 1>there's still these vestiges that the real estate industry industry

0:12:49.760 --> 0:12:55.079
<v Speaker 1>specifically kind of runs up against, and racial elements are

0:12:55.200 --> 0:12:57.520
<v Speaker 1>are continue to just be a really problematic one and

0:12:57.559 --> 0:13:01.240
<v Speaker 1>that that is basically the subject the lawsuit that Redfin

0:13:01.360 --> 0:13:03.640
<v Speaker 1>has been involved with. So so Peter break it down

0:13:03.679 --> 0:13:05.280
<v Speaker 1>for us, what are the what are the two sides

0:13:05.280 --> 0:13:09.960
<v Speaker 1>fighting over sure. So so redfin um it appears to

0:13:09.960 --> 0:13:12.440
<v Speaker 1>to most people browsing on on the web to be

0:13:12.559 --> 0:13:14.920
<v Speaker 1>much like Zillo, that it's a place where you can

0:13:14.960 --> 0:13:18.760
<v Speaker 1>get homeless things and valuations. But Redfin is also a

0:13:18.800 --> 0:13:21.400
<v Speaker 1>huge broker. It's the fifth largest real estate broker in

0:13:21.400 --> 0:13:25.400
<v Speaker 1>the country, and Redfinn has a very very organized way

0:13:25.559 --> 0:13:29.240
<v Speaker 1>of collecting leads of of people who want to either

0:13:29.360 --> 0:13:32.200
<v Speaker 1>list or their home or buy a home through redfin

0:13:32.800 --> 0:13:37.040
<v Speaker 1>and they categorize these leads based on the value UH

0:13:37.280 --> 0:13:40.520
<v Speaker 1>that UH is that that that sale or purchase is

0:13:40.520 --> 0:13:44.080
<v Speaker 1>going to provide in each market, which they've used as

0:13:44.080 --> 0:13:46.840
<v Speaker 1>a way to manage their workforce. They have a certain

0:13:46.920 --> 0:13:50.480
<v Speaker 1>number of agents in each city, and they're in certain

0:13:50.520 --> 0:13:53.240
<v Speaker 1>parts of the of each city. Um so, so they

0:13:53.640 --> 0:13:56.800
<v Speaker 1>argue that this is simply a way of organizing their business. UH.

0:13:56.920 --> 0:14:01.000
<v Speaker 1>The lawsuit brought by fair housing groups towards the end

0:14:01.040 --> 0:14:06.000
<v Speaker 1>of UH pointed out that, according to their studies, redfin

0:14:06.120 --> 0:14:08.640
<v Speaker 1>is is much more likely to not provide its best

0:14:08.679 --> 0:14:13.199
<v Speaker 1>service to homes that are in predominantly non white neighborhoods.

0:14:13.200 --> 0:14:15.400
<v Speaker 1>So that's what the fight is about. And and no,

0:14:15.559 --> 0:14:18.480
<v Speaker 1>and I also talked to many current former red Fan

0:14:18.520 --> 0:14:21.400
<v Speaker 1>employees and some of those people said that they had

0:14:21.720 --> 0:14:24.920
<v Speaker 1>had concerns over the years about how much service Redfan

0:14:25.040 --> 0:14:28.560
<v Speaker 1>is providing to minority neighborhoods. So at issues you do wonder,

0:14:28.760 --> 0:14:31.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, Peter, in terms of is it just a

0:14:31.080 --> 0:14:34.560
<v Speaker 1>case of a company maximizing profit and they're you know,

0:14:34.680 --> 0:14:37.720
<v Speaker 1>organizing their organization to to maximize the most out of

0:14:37.720 --> 0:14:40.880
<v Speaker 1>their resources, or are they discriminating based on what you

0:14:40.880 --> 0:14:43.840
<v Speaker 1>guys found out And there's so much detail in the story.

0:14:45.200 --> 0:14:49.600
<v Speaker 1>What's going on or what are you seeing? Redfin argues

0:14:49.680 --> 0:14:52.800
<v Speaker 1>that that this is with within their their right, so

0:14:52.880 --> 0:14:56.600
<v Speaker 1>this is legally permitted, that that they're applying a neutral

0:14:57.400 --> 0:15:00.680
<v Speaker 1>basis That price is a neutral basis um to decide you.

0:15:00.720 --> 0:15:03.240
<v Speaker 1>But what the fair housing groups are arguing is that

0:15:03.240 --> 0:15:06.640
<v Speaker 1>that's also a gating practice, that instead of taking each

0:15:06.720 --> 0:15:09.600
<v Speaker 1>lead as they come in, they're they're assigning each lead

0:15:09.640 --> 0:15:13.840
<v Speaker 1>based on value. And UH, it is not resolved yet.

0:15:14.200 --> 0:15:16.640
<v Speaker 1>The two sides say they have a framework for resolving

0:15:16.640 --> 0:15:19.080
<v Speaker 1>the suit. It's partly going to come down to the data,

0:15:19.080 --> 0:15:21.960
<v Speaker 1>and there's not agreement on the data between the two sides.

0:15:22.080 --> 0:15:26.080
<v Speaker 1>The fair housing groups contend that the data shows uh

0:15:26.120 --> 0:15:30.080
<v Speaker 1>that people in minority neighborhoods are less likely to get

0:15:30.120 --> 0:15:33.400
<v Speaker 1>good service. Redfin claims that more recently, which is after

0:15:33.480 --> 0:15:36.200
<v Speaker 1>the period of the suit, UH, that their data is

0:15:36.240 --> 0:15:39.840
<v Speaker 1>showing that, uh, they're not discriminating against people by race.

0:15:41.520 --> 0:15:44.200
<v Speaker 1>So Peter, let's talk a little bit more about REDFINN

0:15:44.280 --> 0:15:47.760
<v Speaker 1>because UH, if if you know anything about the company,

0:15:47.840 --> 0:15:52.160
<v Speaker 1>some of these developments might come as something of the surprise, right, Yes,

0:15:52.280 --> 0:15:55.040
<v Speaker 1>that that's um part of what really drew us to

0:15:55.040 --> 0:15:58.440
<v Speaker 1>the story because Redfinn and its CEO Glenn Kelman have

0:15:58.600 --> 0:16:02.680
<v Speaker 1>an extremely progressive reputation in the industry, and and Dave

0:16:03.560 --> 0:16:07.400
<v Speaker 1>cultivated that. Glenn Kellman well before George Floyd's murder was

0:16:07.840 --> 0:16:10.800
<v Speaker 1>he hosted a symposium on race and real estate, and

0:16:10.840 --> 0:16:15.640
<v Speaker 1>he's spoken out against unconscious bias. He's uh, he's increased

0:16:15.640 --> 0:16:19.160
<v Speaker 1>the training for unconscious bias after the Black Lives Matter protests.

0:16:19.400 --> 0:16:24.440
<v Speaker 1>Um he uh created new rules to reward managers based

0:16:24.480 --> 0:16:29.840
<v Speaker 1>on diversity and hiring. Um so so uh. That's partly

0:16:29.840 --> 0:16:32.520
<v Speaker 1>what's so interesting about this suit is that even a

0:16:32.520 --> 0:16:37.840
<v Speaker 1>company that beliefs and everything right uh can run into issues.

0:16:37.960 --> 0:16:41.360
<v Speaker 1>We we the the opening example in the story was

0:16:41.400 --> 0:16:44.360
<v Speaker 1>about a house on the South side of Chicago that's

0:16:44.360 --> 0:16:48.440
<v Speaker 1>worth eight seven thousand, which at the time we looked

0:16:48.440 --> 0:16:52.520
<v Speaker 1>at Redmond was not offering its best service. However, at

0:16:52.520 --> 0:16:55.480
<v Speaker 1>the same time of a house in a phenominantly white

0:16:55.480 --> 0:16:58.200
<v Speaker 1>suburb of Glencoe, it was actually a condo, which is

0:16:58.240 --> 0:17:02.040
<v Speaker 1>value for twenty less was being offered Redfin's best service.

0:17:02.920 --> 0:17:06.560
<v Speaker 1>Uh So, so that that's that's the type of discrepancies

0:17:06.600 --> 0:17:09.840
<v Speaker 1>and disparities that uh we looked at and which are

0:17:09.920 --> 0:17:13.640
<v Speaker 1>so alarming to these fair housing groups. So if if

0:17:13.680 --> 0:17:15.760
<v Speaker 1>we step back from even that one, you know, Peter,

0:17:15.920 --> 0:17:18.959
<v Speaker 1>the ultimate theme here and you guys touched on this

0:17:19.000 --> 0:17:23.280
<v Speaker 1>in in some prior reporting as well, is basically, uh,

0:17:23.440 --> 0:17:26.240
<v Speaker 1>minorities have been locked out of a lot of the

0:17:26.960 --> 0:17:30.240
<v Speaker 1>wealth creation that real estate has afford. So so what

0:17:30.320 --> 0:17:32.240
<v Speaker 1>when you just step back and think about what all

0:17:32.280 --> 0:17:35.720
<v Speaker 1>of your reporting on this topic is means, like, how,

0:17:35.880 --> 0:17:39.520
<v Speaker 1>how are we getting anywhere better? Have there been any improvements?

0:17:41.240 --> 0:17:43.240
<v Speaker 1>There may be some improvements to come out of this suit.

0:17:43.359 --> 0:17:47.800
<v Speaker 1>I Uh we had looked in the past that the

0:17:48.320 --> 0:17:53.359
<v Speaker 1>Realtors Association which apologized for made a formal public apology

0:17:53.480 --> 0:17:57.560
<v Speaker 1>for for decades of past racist behavior. Uh there is

0:17:57.600 --> 0:18:00.760
<v Speaker 1>more awareness in the industry and that seems to be

0:18:00.800 --> 0:18:04.959
<v Speaker 1>helping um and perhaps out of this. You know, one

0:18:05.240 --> 0:18:07.760
<v Speaker 1>person that we talked to said that, uh, you know,

0:18:07.840 --> 0:18:10.840
<v Speaker 1>redlining is a has been a part of the real

0:18:10.920 --> 0:18:13.560
<v Speaker 1>estate industry, and we don't want to have redlining in

0:18:13.600 --> 0:18:16.159
<v Speaker 1>the age of algorithms. So this is the moment to

0:18:16.200 --> 0:18:19.280
<v Speaker 1>not let history repeat itself. But it's a great point

0:18:19.359 --> 0:18:22.439
<v Speaker 1>about here You've got a CEO who you feel like

0:18:22.520 --> 0:18:25.239
<v Speaker 1>has been on it and doing the right thing, and

0:18:25.240 --> 0:18:28.480
<v Speaker 1>then to see that you know there are problems there too.

0:18:28.560 --> 0:18:31.480
<v Speaker 1>So it is just a reminder of how deep, um

0:18:31.520 --> 0:18:34.439
<v Speaker 1>the problems are embedded in our system. Um. Great story

0:18:34.640 --> 0:18:37.000
<v Speaker 1>and appreciate you spending some time with us. Bloomberg News

0:18:37.040 --> 0:18:39.840
<v Speaker 1>p and I reporter Peter rubuson with us on the phone,

0:18:39.840 --> 0:18:41.920
<v Speaker 1>and Seattle of course along with Bloomberg Business we get

0:18:41.920 --> 0:18:44.640
<v Speaker 1>it or Jill Weber on the access line in Brooklyn.

0:18:44.680 --> 0:18:46.640
<v Speaker 1>Catch that story. It will be in the upcoming issue

0:18:46.640 --> 0:18:49.120
<v Speaker 1>of Bloomberg Business Week on news stands later this week.

0:18:49.480 --> 0:18:52.159
<v Speaker 1>Find it online at Bloomberg dot com and also on

0:18:52.200 --> 0:18:56.320
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg terminal. The the opening anecdote here is really powerful,

0:18:56.320 --> 0:18:58.760
<v Speaker 1>the idea that a more expensive apartment in in in

0:18:58.800 --> 0:19:01.560
<v Speaker 1>a non white area you can't get the services that

0:19:01.600 --> 0:19:06.119
<v Speaker 1>you get for a less expensive home in a predominantly

0:19:06.119 --> 0:19:09.199
<v Speaker 1>white suburb. I love though this series to Tim that,

0:19:09.320 --> 0:19:11.119
<v Speaker 1>and I think Joel tapped into this. It's like, so

0:19:11.200 --> 0:19:14.720
<v Speaker 1>much of wealth creation is about property for Americans, and

0:19:14.800 --> 0:19:17.640
<v Speaker 1>so if there's any kind of holding back on that

0:19:17.640 --> 0:19:21.200
<v Speaker 1>that's going to impact a family's ability, of minority family's

0:19:21.240 --> 0:19:23.879
<v Speaker 1>ability and abilities to maybe creates some wealth. You're listening

0:19:23.920 --> 0:19:28.840
<v Speaker 1>to Bloomberg Radio. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol

0:19:28.920 --> 0:19:33.359
<v Speaker 1>Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio.

0:19:33.800 --> 0:19:35.960
<v Speaker 1>We've talked about one of the biggest stories of the day.

0:19:35.960 --> 0:19:39.000
<v Speaker 1>That is, of course Microsoft buying Activision Blizzard and nearly

0:19:39.119 --> 0:19:41.920
<v Speaker 1>sixty billion dollar all cash deal. The other big one

0:19:41.920 --> 0:19:44.320
<v Speaker 1>has of course to do with Goldman Sacks. We're in

0:19:44.359 --> 0:19:45.840
<v Speaker 1>the midst of bank earnings right now, and we did

0:19:45.880 --> 0:19:48.159
<v Speaker 1>hear from Goldman Sacks early in the day equity traders

0:19:48.200 --> 0:19:50.280
<v Speaker 1>posting a decline in the fourth quarter. Revenue from the

0:19:50.280 --> 0:19:54.560
<v Speaker 1>trading operation slits seven percent and equities business declined eleven

0:19:54.960 --> 0:19:58.560
<v Speaker 1>But compensation and benefits, that is what we've all got

0:19:58.560 --> 0:20:00.320
<v Speaker 1>our eyes on. Does feel like Tim and a big way.

0:20:00.320 --> 0:20:02.560
<v Speaker 1>We're getting a reset from the reset from the big banks.

0:20:02.560 --> 0:20:05.120
<v Speaker 1>You heard it from the Morgan and the others last week,

0:20:05.160 --> 0:20:07.239
<v Speaker 1>and I feel like we're getting more from Goldman. Well,

0:20:07.320 --> 0:20:08.920
<v Speaker 1>let's get well, let's get a little bit of insight

0:20:08.960 --> 0:20:11.880
<v Speaker 1>from Shanelli bassk Wall Street reporter for Bloomberg News. I

0:20:11.960 --> 0:20:14.600
<v Speaker 1>checked when I was reading this morning what time Shanali

0:20:14.640 --> 0:20:16.760
<v Speaker 1>got in, because I was like, Okay, it's bank earnings week.

0:20:17.000 --> 0:20:18.960
<v Speaker 1>It means she's getting in at five am. She's still

0:20:19.000 --> 0:20:21.160
<v Speaker 1>here to hang out with us, and we're very grateful

0:20:21.359 --> 0:20:23.320
<v Speaker 1>for that. Shinali. What do we need to know from

0:20:23.400 --> 0:20:26.240
<v Speaker 1>from Goldman Sacks? We've had a few hours to digest it. Yeah,

0:20:26.280 --> 0:20:28.320
<v Speaker 1>there's some sticker shock when it comes to how much

0:20:28.400 --> 0:20:31.880
<v Speaker 1>compensation is rising on Wall Street. And when I spoke

0:20:31.920 --> 0:20:34.280
<v Speaker 1>to the co founder of Carlisle today, you know, what

0:20:34.320 --> 0:20:37.480
<v Speaker 1>he really says is that this is defying gravity. But

0:20:37.560 --> 0:20:41.200
<v Speaker 1>at the same time you have this thirty jumping compensation expenses.

0:20:41.280 --> 0:20:44.800
<v Speaker 1>That's the rise you saw in Goldman's revenue, and you

0:20:44.920 --> 0:20:48.480
<v Speaker 1>saw that jump the bigger in percentage terms, more than

0:20:48.560 --> 0:20:52.399
<v Speaker 1>double what you saw JP Morgan. But JP Morgan's overall

0:20:52.480 --> 0:20:55.840
<v Speaker 1>cost of compensation benefits is much higher because they just

0:20:55.880 --> 0:20:58.320
<v Speaker 1>have such a large work for us across the United States.

0:20:58.720 --> 0:21:00.720
<v Speaker 1>So the thing I have to say to you guys

0:21:00.720 --> 0:21:03.040
<v Speaker 1>that a lot of people are missing is it's not

0:21:03.160 --> 0:21:06.440
<v Speaker 1>just compensation costs that are rising for the banks. There's

0:21:06.520 --> 0:21:11.040
<v Speaker 1>technology costs and marketing costs. Pay is variable. In a

0:21:11.080 --> 0:21:13.960
<v Speaker 1>bad year, you don't get a big bonus, so that

0:21:14.000 --> 0:21:17.960
<v Speaker 1>can change in a heartbeat. Okay here, okay, I totally

0:21:18.000 --> 0:21:20.360
<v Speaker 1>get it. But we heard the same similar things from

0:21:20.600 --> 0:21:22.520
<v Speaker 1>Jamie Diamond last week when it came to pay right.

0:21:22.880 --> 0:21:24.480
<v Speaker 1>And the other part of the Shanali that I'm wondering

0:21:24.560 --> 0:21:26.399
<v Speaker 1>is doesn't this also in the long run when you

0:21:26.440 --> 0:21:29.639
<v Speaker 1>when you pay to actually keep and retain employees, doesn't

0:21:29.640 --> 0:21:32.280
<v Speaker 1>that actually I don't want to say even out, but

0:21:32.320 --> 0:21:33.479
<v Speaker 1>it ends up being a good thing in the long

0:21:33.560 --> 0:21:37.240
<v Speaker 1>run because it's really expensive to lose people. It's expensive

0:21:37.280 --> 0:21:39.720
<v Speaker 1>to lose people, and and actually that was part of

0:21:39.760 --> 0:21:41.959
<v Speaker 1>the cost. If you talk to GP Morgan, their CFO

0:21:42.000 --> 0:21:46.359
<v Speaker 1>actually said that attrition was part of that compensation cost.

0:21:46.720 --> 0:21:49.040
<v Speaker 1>So yes, it's absolutely expensive to lose people. At the

0:21:49.119 --> 0:21:51.480
<v Speaker 1>end of the day, it's going to come down to

0:21:51.640 --> 0:21:55.600
<v Speaker 1>market share. If they are winning on the top line,

0:21:56.000 --> 0:21:58.399
<v Speaker 1>then it's okay to pay people as as long as

0:21:58.400 --> 0:22:00.440
<v Speaker 1>they are winning on the top line, rewarding and masters

0:22:00.520 --> 0:22:03.960
<v Speaker 1>all of the above. So what really kind of spooked

0:22:04.000 --> 0:22:07.600
<v Speaker 1>people today is that some of these booming businesses the

0:22:07.680 --> 0:22:10.480
<v Speaker 1>last couple of years are going to start to moderate

0:22:10.880 --> 0:22:16.119
<v Speaker 1>equity trading revenue. It came in eleven percent lower. And

0:22:17.200 --> 0:22:20.600
<v Speaker 1>that's that's for a firm that is actually it had

0:22:20.640 --> 0:22:22.879
<v Speaker 1>done better than it's a bitter than JP Morgan, but

0:22:22.960 --> 0:22:25.080
<v Speaker 1>in more revenue in stock trading the JP Morgan. So

0:22:25.400 --> 0:22:29.880
<v Speaker 1>tomorrow for Morgan Stanley, which is also experiencing a severe

0:22:29.920 --> 0:22:33.199
<v Speaker 1>stock declined today, the bar is very high for that

0:22:33.280 --> 0:22:36.080
<v Speaker 1>stock trading business because if that revenue also starts to

0:22:36.080 --> 0:22:39.920
<v Speaker 1>come down, and more importantly, they don't beat Golden Sacks.

0:22:40.080 --> 0:22:42.440
<v Speaker 1>Morgan Stilling has been the number one stock trading firm

0:22:42.520 --> 0:22:46.320
<v Speaker 1>for years. It's a problem because then you're paying people

0:22:46.400 --> 0:22:48.760
<v Speaker 1>and you're not necessarily getting a market share as well,

0:22:48.920 --> 0:22:52.640
<v Speaker 1>so shid only. What's happening is it increased competition from fintech,

0:22:52.680 --> 0:22:54.639
<v Speaker 1>Like I'm trying to understand the businesses where there may

0:22:54.680 --> 0:22:57.880
<v Speaker 1>be seeing some numbers not as uppeat as that they've been.

0:22:58.240 --> 0:23:01.360
<v Speaker 1>What's going on. Is it just greater com petition alternatives

0:23:01.359 --> 0:23:04.040
<v Speaker 1>out there for the big banks or what's going on.

0:23:04.280 --> 0:23:07.360
<v Speaker 1>There's a few things going on. One is that competition.

0:23:07.400 --> 0:23:09.600
<v Speaker 1>If you think about it, if you're a trader, what

0:23:09.800 --> 0:23:12.480
<v Speaker 1>is the calculus you're making yes, looking for a tech

0:23:12.480 --> 0:23:14.879
<v Speaker 1>from a crypto from whatever, but really or working for

0:23:14.920 --> 0:23:17.080
<v Speaker 1>a hedge fund. And if you work for a hedge

0:23:17.080 --> 0:23:19.359
<v Speaker 1>fund or private equity firm, they're typically smaller than a

0:23:19.359 --> 0:23:23.880
<v Speaker 1>big bank that has capital requirements, it has regulatory things

0:23:23.920 --> 0:23:27.320
<v Speaker 1>to deal with, it has many more people to pay.

0:23:27.400 --> 0:23:29.959
<v Speaker 1>But if you work for a smaller firm, you're not

0:23:30.040 --> 0:23:32.400
<v Speaker 1>giving all that money back to a big bank. You're

0:23:32.480 --> 0:23:35.720
<v Speaker 1>keeping more of it for yourself. So you know if

0:23:35.880 --> 0:23:37.560
<v Speaker 1>if in a couple of weeks the boutique banks are

0:23:37.560 --> 0:23:39.960
<v Speaker 1>going to report earnings, and we already know from early

0:23:39.960 --> 0:23:43.600
<v Speaker 1>indications that some of those compensation jumps are well above

0:23:43.920 --> 0:23:47.640
<v Speaker 1>what we see at Goldman's Acts. Interesting. So, okay, so

0:23:47.960 --> 0:23:51.600
<v Speaker 1>we've had a handful of the bank's report. Um, what

0:23:51.640 --> 0:23:55.119
<v Speaker 1>are we learning about not just the state of banks,

0:23:55.119 --> 0:23:57.000
<v Speaker 1>which we've talked about, but the state of the economy

0:23:57.040 --> 0:23:59.000
<v Speaker 1>because they give us an insight into how the consumer

0:23:59.119 --> 0:24:00.480
<v Speaker 1>is and how healthy they can see ris how's the

0:24:00.520 --> 0:24:03.360
<v Speaker 1>American consumer? What have we learned? It's a really interesting

0:24:03.440 --> 0:24:07.280
<v Speaker 1>question because we don't see credit rising as quickly as

0:24:07.359 --> 0:24:10.520
<v Speaker 1>we would expect. Then you throw in some other questions

0:24:10.560 --> 0:24:13.160
<v Speaker 1>about interest rates that nobody seems to want to answer,

0:24:13.760 --> 0:24:15.560
<v Speaker 1>are you going to take out a mortgage at a

0:24:15.720 --> 0:24:19.960
<v Speaker 1>higher interest rate? And so it's a complicated question, but

0:24:20.040 --> 0:24:23.760
<v Speaker 1>we haven't gotten clear answers from bankers about that. They

0:24:23.800 --> 0:24:27.480
<v Speaker 1>say that the economy is healthy, but then investors equally say,

0:24:27.640 --> 0:24:30.000
<v Speaker 1>you know, and we're talking about David Rubinstein today, the

0:24:30.080 --> 0:24:34.879
<v Speaker 1>Carlisle co founder, that a correction is also possible. You

0:24:34.880 --> 0:24:37.639
<v Speaker 1>look at Muhammad Alarian too, and he also asked a

0:24:37.720 --> 0:24:41.480
<v Speaker 1>question on Bloomberg opinion column today, at what point do

0:24:41.760 --> 0:24:45.040
<v Speaker 1>the Fed policies start to catch up with financial conditions

0:24:45.440 --> 0:24:49.639
<v Speaker 1>and financial conditions start tightening? We you're hearing there from investors,

0:24:49.760 --> 0:24:54.960
<v Speaker 1>is anywhere between tighter conditions and negative conditions? Yeah, that

0:24:55.600 --> 0:24:57.119
<v Speaker 1>and that is certainly going to be something that the

0:24:57.400 --> 0:25:00.679
<v Speaker 1>big banks we'll be watching and so only watching for

0:25:00.720 --> 0:25:02.800
<v Speaker 1>some kind of impaction. Only thank you so much. We

0:25:02.880 --> 0:25:04.600
<v Speaker 1>know it's been a long day, but we really appreciate

0:25:04.640 --> 0:25:06.720
<v Speaker 1>your input. I always appreciate her notes that she sends

0:25:06.720 --> 0:25:09.639
<v Speaker 1>out in the morning. That gives me instant analysis about

0:25:09.640 --> 0:25:11.879
<v Speaker 1>all of these financial firms and their reporting. Hey, we're

0:25:11.920 --> 0:25:14.879
<v Speaker 1>not done by the way Bank of America on Yana

0:25:15.320 --> 0:25:18.840
<v Speaker 1>Morgan Stanley as well. Yeah, some big ones right, uh,

0:25:18.880 --> 0:25:20.879
<v Speaker 1>and we'll look for what they have to say with

0:25:20.920 --> 0:25:22.840
<v Speaker 1>the mirrors what we've been hearing. Or you're listening to

0:25:22.880 --> 0:25:29.520
<v Speaker 1>Blueboard Business Week and this is Bombard Radio. Yeah, but

0:25:29.680 --> 0:25:34.440
<v Speaker 1>you let me drive? Oh no, no, no no, no, oh please,

0:25:34.560 --> 0:25:40.280
<v Speaker 1>I'll do the riding gravels. I want to drive. It's

0:25:40.359 --> 0:25:46.639
<v Speaker 1>good question. D This is the drive to the clothes

0:25:48.119 --> 0:25:52.679
<v Speaker 1>well up on Bluebird Radio, and everybody, let's get to it.

0:25:52.720 --> 0:25:55.440
<v Speaker 1>We've got just about ten minutes left in today's trading session,

0:25:55.920 --> 0:25:59.400
<v Speaker 1>once again seeing selling pressure on Wall Street, in particular

0:25:59.440 --> 0:26:02.000
<v Speaker 1>among those names. As we heard from Charlie, you've got

0:26:02.040 --> 0:26:05.440
<v Speaker 1>the NASA down about two point four percent. So to

0:26:05.600 --> 0:26:07.520
<v Speaker 1>let's get to our market, guests, there's kind of nowhere

0:26:07.560 --> 0:26:09.720
<v Speaker 1>to hide even you know, the major industry groups. Right now.

0:26:09.760 --> 0:26:12.639
<v Speaker 1>Energy is higher, but but barely, with financials leading the

0:26:12.680 --> 0:26:15.360
<v Speaker 1>decliners down more than two point three percent. Marcy McGregor

0:26:15.640 --> 0:26:18.520
<v Speaker 1>is senior investment strategist at Bank America Private Bank. She

0:26:18.600 --> 0:26:20.640
<v Speaker 1>joined us on the phone from New York City. Marcy,

0:26:20.720 --> 0:26:23.960
<v Speaker 1>how are you. I'm great, Thanks for having me. Hey,

0:26:23.960 --> 0:26:26.239
<v Speaker 1>help us understand just how we should and how our

0:26:26.240 --> 0:26:28.920
<v Speaker 1>audience should think of a day like today, Abigail do

0:26:28.960 --> 0:26:31.359
<v Speaker 1>Little from Bloomberg Markets earlier in the day shared with

0:26:31.440 --> 0:26:34.200
<v Speaker 1>us this pretty mind boggling staff in the NAZDAC right

0:26:34.200 --> 0:26:37.040
<v Speaker 1>now is on pace for its worst month since March

0:26:37.080 --> 0:26:39.879
<v Speaker 1>of and right now as a month, it's down about

0:26:40.200 --> 0:26:44.160
<v Speaker 1>seven point one percent. In March finished the month down

0:26:44.280 --> 0:26:47.760
<v Speaker 1>ten point one percent, so we're not even off of it.

0:26:48.000 --> 0:26:51.320
<v Speaker 1>It's not looking like a good month so far. Yeah,

0:26:51.400 --> 0:26:54.040
<v Speaker 1>and we've been paying I think for two it's a

0:26:54.080 --> 0:26:56.880
<v Speaker 1>year where we're gonna have volatility, especially around the bed

0:26:57.080 --> 0:26:59.480
<v Speaker 1>right all anyone wants to talk about as the FED

0:26:59.520 --> 0:27:01.560
<v Speaker 1>and in play Asian and it's going to feel like

0:27:01.560 --> 0:27:04.160
<v Speaker 1>a bit of a grind, even though we think ultly

0:27:04.280 --> 0:27:08.119
<v Speaker 1>equities move higher from here. But the pain we're seeing

0:27:08.160 --> 0:27:12.200
<v Speaker 1>I think even those big growth non earners, and that's

0:27:12.240 --> 0:27:15.639
<v Speaker 1>likely to continue. But the big story, of course is

0:27:15.720 --> 0:27:19.480
<v Speaker 1>FED rate heights, and believe it or not, energy and tech.

0:27:19.960 --> 0:27:23.359
<v Speaker 1>We prefer kind of mega tech, big, more defensive text,

0:27:23.720 --> 0:27:26.560
<v Speaker 1>but that's that's Those are the two sectors that actually

0:27:26.680 --> 0:27:29.359
<v Speaker 1>lead three months into right hyps and then in the

0:27:29.400 --> 0:27:31.760
<v Speaker 1>three to six months after, so I think it's a

0:27:31.800 --> 0:27:36.080
<v Speaker 1>market searching for leadership. Ultimately, I think energy and financials

0:27:36.080 --> 0:27:39.120
<v Speaker 1>win that battle. But that's not quite what we're seeing today. Well,

0:27:39.119 --> 0:27:42.240
<v Speaker 1>and let's not forget I mean, we still have at

0:27:42.280 --> 0:27:45.280
<v Speaker 1>this point economic growth. We will still have earnings growth,

0:27:45.359 --> 0:27:48.760
<v Speaker 1>just not the blockbuster numbers that we've seen. Marcy right

0:27:48.880 --> 0:27:53.119
<v Speaker 1>in the past. Here, I totally agree. I think what

0:27:53.160 --> 0:27:57.840
<v Speaker 1>the market cares about is peak earnings, not peak earnings growth.

0:27:57.960 --> 0:28:02.000
<v Speaker 1>And I don't think peak earnings two story may not

0:28:02.080 --> 0:28:04.960
<v Speaker 1>even be a twenty three story because I think strong

0:28:05.359 --> 0:28:08.840
<v Speaker 1>nominal GDP growth, which we certainly have, is can to

0:28:08.920 --> 0:28:11.840
<v Speaker 1>continue to be a tailin for corporate profits this year.

0:28:12.480 --> 0:28:14.680
<v Speaker 1>Is there concern though that? And this is something Tim

0:28:14.720 --> 0:28:17.160
<v Speaker 1>and I have talked a lot about the magazine Business

0:28:17.200 --> 0:28:20.240
<v Speaker 1>Withek magazine has covered it a lot about a policy

0:28:20.480 --> 0:28:24.600
<v Speaker 1>misstep by the U S Central Bank other central banks

0:28:24.640 --> 0:28:29.080
<v Speaker 1>that have an impact on global economic growth and maybe

0:28:29.160 --> 0:28:32.240
<v Speaker 1>redirect our thinking when it comes to the opportunities this year.

0:28:33.200 --> 0:28:36.160
<v Speaker 1>It's absolutely a risk. And if you think about two

0:28:36.200 --> 0:28:38.920
<v Speaker 1>months ago, I would have shared that I thought the

0:28:38.960 --> 0:28:42.360
<v Speaker 1>FED was getting further and further behind the curve. Now

0:28:42.400 --> 0:28:44.840
<v Speaker 1>I see that risk is being more balanced in terms

0:28:44.880 --> 0:28:48.240
<v Speaker 1>of devilish and the hawkish risk. The FED seems to

0:28:48.280 --> 0:28:51.160
<v Speaker 1>be getting more serious about taking a bite out of inflation,

0:28:51.600 --> 0:28:55.480
<v Speaker 1>but now you have global monetary policy diverging. So I

0:28:55.560 --> 0:29:00.000
<v Speaker 1>do think we have to acknowledge that inflation is certainly sticky.

0:29:00.000 --> 0:29:02.800
<v Speaker 1>It raises the pressure on the FED. We're seeing it

0:29:02.840 --> 0:29:05.240
<v Speaker 1>flow down and growth. I think because the omicron right now,

0:29:05.560 --> 0:29:08.320
<v Speaker 1>that seems to move in two month waves around the world.

0:29:09.000 --> 0:29:12.800
<v Speaker 1>But you have a FED with persistent price pressure, Um,

0:29:13.000 --> 0:29:16.120
<v Speaker 1>they need to address it. I think the risk is

0:29:16.200 --> 0:29:19.040
<v Speaker 1>they could kind of overcorrect, but I think that's not

0:29:19.120 --> 0:29:21.760
<v Speaker 1>where we are today, but we have to acknowledge it's

0:29:21.760 --> 0:29:26.040
<v Speaker 1>the risk for sure corection look like, you know, I

0:29:26.080 --> 0:29:28.840
<v Speaker 1>think that what the market is anticipating right now is

0:29:28.880 --> 0:29:31.000
<v Speaker 1>the first rate hike in March, and we get four

0:29:31.120 --> 0:29:34.040
<v Speaker 1>this year. But we have to remember there's six meetings,

0:29:34.200 --> 0:29:37.320
<v Speaker 1>six f O MC meetings after March, so every month

0:29:37.320 --> 0:29:39.760
<v Speaker 1>the market is going to be parsing every single word

0:29:40.120 --> 0:29:43.200
<v Speaker 1>and looking for a policy adjustment. I think the risk

0:29:43.280 --> 0:29:46.200
<v Speaker 1>is that the FED doesn't communicate well. UM so far,

0:29:46.400 --> 0:29:48.840
<v Speaker 1>I have to say Pal and Sied leadership has done

0:29:48.880 --> 0:29:53.040
<v Speaker 1>a really good job. You know, while the market is volatile,

0:29:53.280 --> 0:29:56.240
<v Speaker 1>we're not seeing an overreaction to what is a pretty

0:29:56.280 --> 0:29:59.719
<v Speaker 1>stunning pivot from the FED. So I think the biggest

0:29:59.760 --> 0:30:02.600
<v Speaker 1>risk right now with miscommunication, But so far I have

0:30:02.680 --> 0:30:05.240
<v Speaker 1>to give the FED good grades on that. Having said that,

0:30:05.360 --> 0:30:07.200
<v Speaker 1>you know, Marcy, there's a lot of talk at this

0:30:07.240 --> 0:30:11.200
<v Speaker 1>point about the FED is maybe way behind the curve

0:30:11.560 --> 0:30:15.920
<v Speaker 1>um Doctor Henry Kaufman, the original Dr Doom sitting down

0:30:15.920 --> 0:30:18.520
<v Speaker 1>with our Eric Shatzker. We talked about it on Friday,

0:30:18.600 --> 0:30:21.760
<v Speaker 1>and the concern is, you know that maybe this FED

0:30:21.920 --> 0:30:25.000
<v Speaker 1>doesn't have the nerve or the comfort to do something

0:30:25.040 --> 0:30:28.600
<v Speaker 1>like a Paul Volker did that was very unpopular or

0:30:28.640 --> 0:30:32.520
<v Speaker 1>seemingly to raise rates in a high inflationary environment, but

0:30:32.560 --> 0:30:35.280
<v Speaker 1>it was the right thing to do. Is there are

0:30:35.280 --> 0:30:38.440
<v Speaker 1>there conversations that you guys are having at your firm

0:30:38.600 --> 0:30:42.760
<v Speaker 1>about that. So I think what we all have to

0:30:42.800 --> 0:30:47.360
<v Speaker 1>get afflimated to is lets the pain of a FED

0:30:47.440 --> 0:30:51.320
<v Speaker 1>policy error and maybe the idea that the correct policy

0:30:51.400 --> 0:30:54.400
<v Speaker 1>to really take a bite out of inflation in itself

0:30:54.440 --> 0:30:58.480
<v Speaker 1>could be painful. And I think with a market expecting

0:30:58.480 --> 0:31:00.520
<v Speaker 1>a rate hike in March, I do think the FED

0:31:00.560 --> 0:31:03.720
<v Speaker 1>will move ahead with that. It seems to be shortsighted

0:31:03.760 --> 0:31:07.160
<v Speaker 1>if they didn't, since the markets already acclimated to that view.

0:31:07.640 --> 0:31:09.280
<v Speaker 1>So I think they're going to move ahead. I mean,

0:31:09.320 --> 0:31:12.200
<v Speaker 1>we saw in the most recent FOM minutes they're already

0:31:12.200 --> 0:31:16.600
<v Speaker 1>talking about quantitative tightening to two years last time from

0:31:16.640 --> 0:31:19.000
<v Speaker 1>the first FED rate hike, and we think you get

0:31:19.040 --> 0:31:22.280
<v Speaker 1>the first step towards QT later this year. So the

0:31:22.320 --> 0:31:25.960
<v Speaker 1>Feds moving in the right direction. But the correct policy

0:31:26.360 --> 0:31:29.880
<v Speaker 1>may be painful itself and could potentially cause a mid

0:31:29.920 --> 0:31:32.920
<v Speaker 1>cycle flow down. We don't see the recession risk and

0:31:33.000 --> 0:31:35.720
<v Speaker 1>we don't see it in the curve either. Curve kind

0:31:35.720 --> 0:31:38.600
<v Speaker 1>of treading water right now. If it stays that way,

0:31:38.640 --> 0:31:41.040
<v Speaker 1>I think it's telling us that they're not overly the

0:31:41.040 --> 0:31:44.440
<v Speaker 1>market's not overly concerned about a policy error, but the

0:31:44.560 --> 0:31:48.320
<v Speaker 1>correct dose of policy may itself be painful. Okay, So

0:31:48.360 --> 0:31:51.080
<v Speaker 1>a handful of earnings coming up this week, Marcy, just

0:31:51.120 --> 0:31:53.440
<v Speaker 1>in the last minute that we have with you includes Alcoha,

0:31:53.520 --> 0:31:57.040
<v Speaker 1>United Airlines, Intuitive Surgical, Netflix, Bank of America, United Health Group,

0:31:57.280 --> 0:31:59.040
<v Speaker 1>just to name a few. What should we be looking for?

0:31:59.080 --> 0:32:03.120
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I'm thinking pricing pressure, right, I'm thinking wage pressure. Um,

0:32:03.160 --> 0:32:05.440
<v Speaker 1>what are you going to be looking for? It's all

0:32:05.480 --> 0:32:09.360
<v Speaker 1>about wage pressure this week and real wages have not

0:32:09.560 --> 0:32:13.080
<v Speaker 1>kept up with inflation, and real wages haven't kept up

0:32:13.120 --> 0:32:17.200
<v Speaker 1>with corporate profits. That's why we've seen companies protector margins

0:32:17.240 --> 0:32:20.240
<v Speaker 1>so effectively. I think if we look out to next week,

0:32:20.280 --> 0:32:24.480
<v Speaker 1>you're going to see more cyclical industries joined the earnings party.

0:32:24.840 --> 0:32:28.240
<v Speaker 1>I think the cyclicals dis quarter are likely to report

0:32:28.320 --> 0:32:32.000
<v Speaker 1>revenue above the AVERAGEES and P level, So I think

0:32:32.040 --> 0:32:34.720
<v Speaker 1>that's gonna be a positive story. But it's all about

0:32:34.760 --> 0:32:37.280
<v Speaker 1>wage pressure. That's going to be a story all year,

0:32:37.400 --> 0:32:40.440
<v Speaker 1>I think, and looking at companies that can pass through

0:32:40.480 --> 0:32:44.320
<v Speaker 1>those higher prices to a strong consumer. Right, higher wages,

0:32:44.320 --> 0:32:46.920
<v Speaker 1>but then right, you got to put that against inflation

0:32:46.960 --> 0:32:49.960
<v Speaker 1>and how much does that eat into those wage increases. Hey, Marcy,

0:32:50.000 --> 0:32:52.680
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much. Marcy McGregor. She's senior investment strategist

0:32:52.680 --> 0:32:54.840
<v Speaker 1>I think of America Private banked him on the phone

0:32:54.880 --> 0:32:58.640
<v Speaker 1>in New York City. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week.

0:32:58.760 --> 0:33:02.360
<v Speaker 1>Download the podcast on i Tunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com,

0:33:02.360 --> 0:33:04.040
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0:33:04.040 --> 0:33:06.640
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0:33:06.680 --> 0:33:08.680
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