WEBVTT - Conference Championship Weekend: Nick's Picks 0:00:00.440 --> 0:00:02.800 If your football team had one option in their playbook, 0:00:03.000 --> 0:00:05.800 the results probably wouldn't be great. The same could be 0:00:05.840 --> 0:00:09.440 said for your investments. Cibo index options like SPX and 0:00:09.600 --> 0:00:12.960 XSP can help expand your investing strategies with cash settlement 0:00:13.080 --> 0:00:15.840 and potential tax advantages. If you're ready for a more 0:00:15.920 --> 0:00:19.160 dynamic game plan, head to Better with Options dot com. 0:00:19.280 --> 0:00:22.880 Cibo life is better with options, Your investments. 0:00:22.440 --> 0:00:23.119 Could be two. 0:00:23.520 --> 0:00:26.159 There are risks associated with Cibo company products. Review the 0:00:26.160 --> 0:00:40.680 disclosures and disclaimers at cbo dot com slash us underscore disclaimers. 0:00:42.880 --> 0:00:47.879 Welcome in episode one twenty three, our Conference Championship weekend 0:00:48.520 --> 0:00:52.880 edition of What's Right with Nick Right, our weekly gambling show. 0:00:53.800 --> 0:00:57.240 Last week we went to and two. We should have 0:00:57.320 --> 0:01:00.760 gone three and one. Our stream of being on the 0:01:00.840 --> 0:01:04.840 right side, or streak of not having losing weeks continues. 0:01:05.160 --> 0:01:06.760 Two and two is nothing to right home about. But 0:01:06.800 --> 0:01:09.920 there's only four games we and well, let's just go 0:01:09.959 --> 0:01:12.479 through them right now before we get to this Weekends Picks, 0:01:12.760 --> 0:01:14.759 which you guys, if you've been listening to this show 0:01:14.800 --> 0:01:17.840 throughout the year, you probably know this Weekends Picks. So 0:01:17.920 --> 0:01:20.520 our playoff records now six and four, Our season record 0:01:20.520 --> 0:01:23.839 fifty six fifty two in two, which does not sound great. 0:01:23.880 --> 0:01:25.760 But if you know what we were looking like around 0:01:25.800 --> 0:01:29.399 week fifteen, you know what a heater were on Cincinnati 0:01:29.400 --> 0:01:31.760 plus five and a half at Buffalo. We told you 0:01:31.800 --> 0:01:34.119 they'd win outright, We told you they were the better 0:01:34.160 --> 0:01:37.000 team that was proven out San Francisco minus three and 0:01:37.040 --> 0:01:40.640 a half against Dallas. That game, as we discussed on Monday, 0:01:40.920 --> 0:01:44.440 went about as hilariously as everyone could predict it would. 0:01:44.840 --> 0:01:48.440 Giants plus seven and a half at Philly was flatly 0:01:48.520 --> 0:01:51.040 the wrong side of that bet. But if you remember 0:01:51.120 --> 0:01:54.400 last Friday's show, I said that was the game I 0:01:54.400 --> 0:01:57.320 felt the least confident. That was the game that I 0:01:57.400 --> 0:01:59.800 was just like a divisional game. I'll grab the points. 0:02:00.640 --> 0:02:02.840 We weren't sure how healthy Jalen was going to be, 0:02:03.160 --> 0:02:05.120 but there was a chance the game was going to 0:02:05.160 --> 0:02:08.360 go exactly the way it did, which is it gets 0:02:08.400 --> 0:02:10.919 out of hand early and Philly rolls all over them. 0:02:11.240 --> 0:02:13.080 And then there's Kansas City minus eight and a half 0:02:13.080 --> 0:02:17.320 against Jacksonville. Now that did not cover, but that is 0:02:17.480 --> 0:02:20.760 flatley and clearly was the right side of the bet 0:02:21.400 --> 0:02:24.760 because in order for that to not cover by a 0:02:24.880 --> 0:02:28.240 point and a half. You needed Mahomes to get hurt, 0:02:29.280 --> 0:02:33.760 Mahomes to when he came back in be incredibly hampered 0:02:33.800 --> 0:02:37.160 due to injury, and then the Chiefs to fail to 0:02:37.160 --> 0:02:40.800 pick up consecutive third and ones that would have allowed 0:02:40.840 --> 0:02:44.200 them to essentially salt the game away. Even though all 0:02:44.240 --> 0:02:47.200 of that happened, it was still Chiefs winning by ten 0:02:47.760 --> 0:02:50.200 with less than a minute remaining. Then the Jags, to 0:02:50.240 --> 0:02:52.959 their credit, did do the smart thing, kick the field 0:02:52.960 --> 0:02:54.760 goals so you can then attempt the on side and 0:02:54.800 --> 0:02:57.080 the hail mary. They got the field goal, they didn't 0:02:57.080 --> 0:02:58.760 get the on side and the hail mary. So we 0:02:58.880 --> 0:03:02.240 feel fine about how we did last week, but not 0:03:02.480 --> 0:03:06.040 nearly as great as how we could feel about this 0:03:06.160 --> 0:03:11.160 week if we end up nailing these two games. Because well, Demonse, 0:03:11.760 --> 0:03:14.880 I'll welcome you in now and I'll let you discuss 0:03:14.919 --> 0:03:20.480 what has been the underlying story of this entire gambling season, 0:03:21.040 --> 0:03:23.560 our preseason super Bowl bet. Go right ahead. 0:03:23.680 --> 0:03:25.680 Yes, before we get into your picks for this week, 0:03:26.040 --> 0:03:29.400 let's talk about your big super Bowl prediction. Yeah, we 0:03:29.760 --> 0:03:31.960 talked about it in the first show. Yeah, we're going 0:03:32.000 --> 0:03:32.320 to show. 0:03:32.760 --> 0:03:34.760 Oh, we have a clip, all right, let's watch the clip. 0:03:35.440 --> 0:03:39.800 My Super Bowl pick is Chiefs Niners. If you bet 0:03:39.840 --> 0:03:42.840 the Chiefs win the AFC and the Niners to win 0:03:42.920 --> 0:03:45.000 the NFC. It's a rematch, by the way, Super Bowl 0:03:45.040 --> 0:03:49.840 from a few years ago. That is plus five thousand, 0:03:50.680 --> 0:03:56.400 fifty to one. Demonse, there's four teams left. The Eagles 0:03:56.400 --> 0:03:59.400 are left, the Bengals are left, and who are the 0:03:59.440 --> 0:04:00.680 other two two teams remaining? 0:04:01.120 --> 0:04:02.440 The forty nine Ers and the Chiefs. 0:04:02.640 --> 0:04:07.280 So we are as close as we can get to 0:04:07.360 --> 0:04:09.840 hitting that fifty to one. Now, you go right ahead. 0:04:10.240 --> 0:04:12.880 Yeah, so you obviously called that back when the first 0:04:12.920 --> 0:04:14.880 episode of this particular show aired. 0:04:15.080 --> 0:04:16.719 Yeah, can you walk timber second? 0:04:16.920 --> 0:04:19.640 Yep, can you walk us through your thought process and 0:04:19.680 --> 0:04:21.839 what made you choose this particular bet. 0:04:22.000 --> 0:04:23.919 Okay, So why did I like the Chiefs and the 0:04:24.000 --> 0:04:28.480 Niners before the year. So we'll start with the Chiefs. 0:04:28.920 --> 0:04:31.200 I thought a number of things were happening. One is, 0:04:31.600 --> 0:04:36.080 I thought people were way overvaluing the AFC West. Now listen, 0:04:36.160 --> 0:04:38.039 I thought the Chargers were good enough to make the 0:04:38.080 --> 0:04:41.239 conference championship game, and maybe they would have been. They 0:04:41.320 --> 0:04:46.760 obviously got absolutely annihilated by injuries, and they still found 0:04:46.760 --> 0:04:49.040 a way into the playoffs. Were up twenty seven to 0:04:49.080 --> 0:04:52.000 nothing in their playoff game. But I thought the Raiders 0:04:52.040 --> 0:04:54.160 were not going to be very good, and I the 0:04:54.160 --> 0:05:00.560 Broncos were hilariously overvalued. Additionally, what I did get wrong 0:05:01.200 --> 0:05:03.080 was I thought the Bengals were gonna take a bit 0:05:03.120 --> 0:05:05.920 of a step back. Now it looked like that was correct. 0:05:05.920 --> 0:05:07.640 At the beginning of the season, I had the Bengals 0:05:07.680 --> 0:05:09.840 making the playoffs, making it as a wild card team. 0:05:11.200 --> 0:05:14.080 The Bengals have been obviously one of the hottest teams 0:05:14.120 --> 0:05:16.479 in the league ever since the opening month of the season. 0:05:17.160 --> 0:05:19.400 But the other part of it was there was real 0:05:19.560 --> 0:05:25.280 value on the Chiefs because everyone was anointing the Buffalo Bills, 0:05:26.000 --> 0:05:29.200 and so the Chiefs were not the overwhelming favorites within 0:05:29.240 --> 0:05:32.279 their division. They weren't the favorites at all. They were 0:05:32.320 --> 0:05:34.720 the favorites in their division, were not overwhelming as they 0:05:34.720 --> 0:05:38.760 had been in years past. You could get plus money 0:05:38.800 --> 0:05:41.640 on them to win their division, meaning they were the 0:05:41.680 --> 0:05:45.240 favorites for the AFC West. But Chiefs versus the field, 0:05:45.680 --> 0:05:48.080 they were an underdog according to the money on it. 0:05:48.600 --> 0:05:51.320 And then there was the Bills that were treated like 0:05:51.400 --> 0:05:55.880 this unstoppable juggernaut that I just simply did not buy 0:05:55.960 --> 0:05:59.120 into so for all of those reasons, plus the fact 0:05:59.279 --> 0:06:05.400 I thought the U market was slightly overstating the impact 0:06:05.400 --> 0:06:10.560 of Tyreek Hill being gone. And I knew now, to 0:06:10.640 --> 0:06:12.839 be fair, I didn't pick the Chiefs to be the 0:06:12.839 --> 0:06:15.599 one seed. I thought they were gonna have to play 0:06:15.920 --> 0:06:18.160 a road playoff game or two for the first time 0:06:18.200 --> 0:06:21.640 in the Mahomes era. But I knew what they're playing 0:06:21.839 --> 0:06:26.479 was on defense, in playing all these young players, half 0:06:26.600 --> 0:06:31.400 dozen rookies getting significant snaps, and the idea then would 0:06:31.400 --> 0:06:37.080 be by the end of the year, by games fifteen, sixteen, seventeen, eighteen, 0:06:37.680 --> 0:06:42.120 those rookies are no longer really rookies, and the defense 0:06:42.160 --> 0:06:45.400 could be peaking at just the right time, and I 0:06:45.480 --> 0:06:50.240 knew Mahomes would be fine. And to be honest, that 0:06:50.360 --> 0:06:54.480 is exactly what happened. The Bills were frauds. The AFC 0:06:54.520 --> 0:06:57.520 West was not the greatest division ever, and the Chiefs 0:06:57.560 --> 0:07:01.400 defense now sits here today in the NFL in sacks 0:07:01.760 --> 0:07:04.440 the most pressures of any team in the league outside 0:07:04.440 --> 0:07:07.960 of Dallas, and the most quarterback hits of any team 0:07:08.000 --> 0:07:11.520 in the league outside of Dallas. With these young players 0:07:11.560 --> 0:07:14.720 coming into their own and the Chiefs offense led the 0:07:14.800 --> 0:07:17.960 league in points and led the league in yards. So 0:07:18.400 --> 0:07:21.280 that was the chief side of the bet. Then there's 0:07:21.320 --> 0:07:25.040 the Niners side of the bet. The Niners bet was 0:07:25.960 --> 0:07:30.640 essentially a twofold bet. The first one was I looked 0:07:30.680 --> 0:07:34.640 around the NFC and I did not believe in the 0:07:34.680 --> 0:07:37.520 Eagles the way everyone else seemed. They were the trendy team. 0:07:37.600 --> 0:07:39.480 We talked about it. People are talking about that they 0:07:39.480 --> 0:07:42.480 could be the one seed, and I said, listen. I 0:07:42.600 --> 0:07:45.840 reluctantly picked them to win their division, but I did 0:07:45.880 --> 0:07:48.160 not think they would be a fourteen and three team. Well, 0:07:48.160 --> 0:07:50.240 they were a fourteen and three team and could have 0:07:50.280 --> 0:07:52.640 been better than that, if we're being totally honest, they 0:07:52.640 --> 0:07:55.720 were what thirteen and one? And then Jalen got hurt. 0:07:55.800 --> 0:07:59.000 So I missed on the Eagles, but the rest of it. 0:07:59.480 --> 0:08:02.800 What was our favorite preseason win total? Bucks under eleven 0:08:02.800 --> 0:08:04.440 and a half. I didn't look at the Bucks as 0:08:04.480 --> 0:08:07.880 a real contender. The Packers, to me, missed their window. 0:08:08.200 --> 0:08:10.440 I didn't look at the Packers as a real contender. 0:08:10.840 --> 0:08:16.520 The Rams we knew that. We didn't know Stafford was 0:08:16.560 --> 0:08:18.520 gonna get hurt, but he did go into the year 0:08:18.600 --> 0:08:21.400 with an elbow injury. We knew they'd miss von Miller, 0:08:21.440 --> 0:08:23.960 we knew they'd miss Odell. So the Rams to me, 0:08:24.440 --> 0:08:28.360 were not a dynamite contender. So now we're really only 0:08:28.400 --> 0:08:30.720 down to a handful of teams as far as who 0:08:30.720 --> 0:08:35.560 could win the NFC and the Niners. It wasn't that 0:08:35.720 --> 0:08:40.040 I thought Trey Lance was going to instantly come in 0:08:40.080 --> 0:08:44.360 and be better than Jimmy Garoppolo. But Jimmy Garoppolo statistically 0:08:45.120 --> 0:08:48.960 is one of the worst playoff quarterbacks ever. He has 0:08:49.000 --> 0:08:51.719 played six career playoff games. He has four touchdowns, he 0:08:51.760 --> 0:08:55.080 has six interceptions. He has a passer rating of seventy four. 0:08:55.800 --> 0:09:01.160 He is the worst postseason fourth quarter fourth quarter quarterback ever, 0:09:01.440 --> 0:09:04.520 a passer rating of less than twenty in his career 0:09:04.520 --> 0:09:07.120 in the postseason in the fourth quarter. And so my 0:09:07.280 --> 0:09:11.120 logic there was the Niners by the end of the 0:09:11.280 --> 0:09:15.800 season are going to have better quarterback play than they'd 0:09:15.840 --> 0:09:19.640 had at any point during the Jimmy Garoppolo era. Now 0:09:19.679 --> 0:09:22.560 that ended up being true, But it wasn't because of 0:09:22.600 --> 0:09:25.920 Trey Lance. It was because of Brock Purty. But Mike 0:09:26.040 --> 0:09:30.360 Kyle Shanahan has coached eight playoff games with the Niners. 0:09:30.920 --> 0:09:34.559 The two best quarterbacking performances that he's gotten have been 0:09:34.559 --> 0:09:37.959 the two Brock Party games. So I loved the Niners defense. 0:09:38.000 --> 0:09:40.240 Loved Damiko Ryans. We said it on the show before 0:09:40.240 --> 0:09:43.880 the year, now he's the new head coaching candidate. Loved 0:09:43.920 --> 0:09:47.040 their skill position guys, and I thought Trey Lance was 0:09:47.080 --> 0:09:50.360 going to add a dynamic to the offense as far 0:09:50.400 --> 0:09:54.600 as quarterback run game that Shanahan's offense would be just 0:09:54.920 --> 0:09:58.640 utterly devastating with. Now that never came to fruition. The 0:09:58.720 --> 0:10:01.960 guy played five quarter and broke his leg. But and 0:10:02.000 --> 0:10:05.120 then Jimmy G came in, and once they traded for 0:10:05.200 --> 0:10:10.000 McCaffrey after the Chiefs game, they were rolling. And then 0:10:10.040 --> 0:10:11.640 I think the best thing that could happen to him 0:10:11.720 --> 0:10:14.720 was Jimmy G goes out. And I don't think Perty's great. 0:10:15.120 --> 0:10:17.600 I don't even know if Perty's good, but Perty is 0:10:17.679 --> 0:10:20.600 not a terrible playoff quarterback. The way Jimmy G has been, 0:10:20.960 --> 0:10:24.680 the NFC is wide open. Now what did I say 0:10:24.679 --> 0:10:28.160 when I was explaining this whole thing. My two big 0:10:28.200 --> 0:10:34.200 misses were underrating the Eagles and underrating the Bengals. I 0:10:34.280 --> 0:10:36.800 had them both making the playoffs. I had neither of 0:10:36.840 --> 0:10:40.240 them as actual Super Bowl contenders. Either one of those 0:10:40.320 --> 0:10:45.319 teams could of course ruin my fifty to one bet, 0:10:45.559 --> 0:10:46.559 but and the. 0:10:47.120 --> 0:10:49.280 But got a chance to be responsible in edge it. 0:10:51.080 --> 0:10:55.840 I don't hedge bets. I don't. I'm not hedging you. 0:10:56.840 --> 0:10:59.800 I would be This is a do as I say, 0:10:59.840 --> 0:11:03.200 now as I do type of thing. If you had 0:11:03.200 --> 0:11:07.160 this future writing, I would be hassling you on a 0:11:07.240 --> 0:11:10.160 daily basis, trying to convince you to hedge it. 0:11:11.160 --> 0:11:13.199 But yeah, I was about to say, I can't afford 0:11:13.240 --> 0:11:15.240 to not have sixteen thousands of my bank account. 0:11:15.400 --> 0:11:18.680 Well, even if it were, I think let's say you 0:11:18.720 --> 0:11:20.920 made one hundred dollar bet and it was to win 0:11:21.000 --> 0:11:22.920 five thousand, you know what I mean, instead of one 0:11:22.920 --> 0:11:24.880 thousand dollars bet to win fifty thousand. If it was 0:11:24.880 --> 0:11:27.520 one hundred dollars bet to win five thousand, and you 0:11:27.679 --> 0:11:30.520 right now could get fifteen hundred out of it, I 0:11:30.520 --> 0:11:34.440 would be strongly encouraging you to take it. I don't 0:11:34.440 --> 0:11:34.839 know if you. 0:11:34.880 --> 0:11:37.800 Would bring it back down to my scale. 0:11:38.040 --> 0:11:39.960 What do you think you would do? Because you made 0:11:39.960 --> 0:11:41.960 one hundred dollar bet before. So let's say you made 0:11:42.000 --> 0:11:44.680 a hundred dollar future and it was fifty to one 0:11:45.440 --> 0:11:49.240 and you Now the little cash out option says fifteen hundred. 0:11:49.480 --> 0:11:50.160 What are you doing? 0:11:51.200 --> 0:11:52.640 I think I'm sticking with it. 0:11:53.040 --> 0:11:59.080 Okay, let me ask this. We're watching the game Sunday. 0:11:59.200 --> 0:12:03.400 The Niners win the early game. Now the cash out 0:12:03.440 --> 0:12:07.800 option is twenty four hundred. All it's either gonna sand 0:12:07.920 --> 0:12:10.880 so you can either click yes, or it's gonna be zero, 0:12:11.080 --> 0:12:13.000 or it's gonna be five thousand. What are you doing? 0:12:15.880 --> 0:12:17.280 What are you doing? What do you think? 0:12:18.400 --> 0:12:21.240 Hey man, I'm hoping Joe Burrow gets banged up early. 0:12:21.520 --> 0:12:22.320 Oh okay, well. 0:12:24.240 --> 0:12:26.599 I'm kidding. No, I would pray for injury, but I 0:12:27.040 --> 0:12:29.600 definitely think i'd still have to, especially if they're forty 0:12:29.640 --> 0:12:32.680 nine Ers were to win early. I couldn't see myself. 0:12:32.840 --> 0:12:33.080 Now. 0:12:33.559 --> 0:12:35.920 This happened to me earlier in the early in the year. 0:12:36.200 --> 0:12:38.280 What happened with the parlay? And it was like, the 0:12:39.280 --> 0:12:43.400 uh is the Packers playing the Bills? I think, oh, yeah, 0:12:44.320 --> 0:12:47.400 the Packers plus yeah, ten and a half or eleven. 0:12:47.840 --> 0:12:50.600 Yeah, the Bills were it was Sunday night football. Yeah, 0:12:50.640 --> 0:12:53.440 the Bills were crushing them. And then the Bills ended 0:12:53.480 --> 0:12:56.480 up having a terrible second half and the Packers ended 0:12:56.559 --> 0:12:59.520 up Yeah, losing twenty seven to seventeen. Yeah, it was 0:12:59.520 --> 0:13:02.319 a miraculus cover. But you didn't cash out of that one. No, 0:13:02.720 --> 0:13:06.640 And if you remember during that one when the bills 0:13:06.640 --> 0:13:11.280 went up huge early, your cash out on it was nothing. 0:13:11.320 --> 0:13:15.319 It was terrible. All right, let's get into these games. 0:13:16.520 --> 0:13:22.280 San Francisco is getting two and a half points at Philadelphia. 0:13:22.880 --> 0:13:26.160 Unlike the Chiefs line, which has moved all over the place, 0:13:26.640 --> 0:13:29.920 this line has been quite static. Demonte go ahead. 0:13:30.559 --> 0:13:34.079 Jalen Hurts the season and this season and is a 0:13:34.160 --> 0:13:36.079 twenty and three as a favorite in his career. 0:13:36.160 --> 0:13:40.120 Sorry, yeahs, and he's fifteen to one overall this season. 0:13:40.160 --> 0:13:42.120 As far as just straight up wins, go ahead, right. 0:13:42.520 --> 0:13:46.120 Four ricky quarterbacks have ever been in Four ricky quarterbacks 0:13:46.160 --> 0:13:48.800 have ever been in a championship game? Yeah, Mark Sanchez, 0:13:49.320 --> 0:13:53.880 Joe Flacco, Ben Roethlisberger, Sean King, all, oh, and four 0:13:53.960 --> 0:13:54.400 straight up? 0:13:54.720 --> 0:14:01.160 Yeah, So that doesn't. None of those factors really bother 0:14:01.280 --> 0:14:07.000 me here. So let's go through those rookie quarterbacks that 0:14:07.040 --> 0:14:11.719 we're talking about. Mark Sanchez, Joe Flacco, Ben Roethlisberger, Sean King. 0:14:12.440 --> 0:14:14.840 So we're talking about the Jets of the late two 0:14:14.880 --> 0:14:21.360 thousand aughts, the Ravens of the mid two thousands, bent, 0:14:21.480 --> 0:14:25.520 the Steelers of the same era, and then the Bucks 0:14:25.760 --> 0:14:30.760 of late nineties. Okay, yeah, Shaun King twenty some years ago. 0:14:31.320 --> 0:14:35.760 So all of those teams were trying to win games 0:14:36.640 --> 0:14:42.000 thirteen to ten, seventeen fourteen. They were trying to win 0:14:42.360 --> 0:14:48.840 purely on their the strength of their defense. So, yes, 0:14:49.000 --> 0:14:51.800 the rookie quarterbacks, it would have been nice if they 0:14:51.800 --> 0:14:55.000 could make plays, but those guys really hadn't been making 0:14:55.040 --> 0:14:59.720 plays all year. And those were defensive oriented teams. Nin 0:15:01.360 --> 0:15:05.240 have the best defense in football, and since they got 0:15:05.320 --> 0:15:09.960 Christian McCaffrey and hell forget that, since Rock Purty took 0:15:10.000 --> 0:15:13.920 over one of the highest scoring offenses in football. They 0:15:13.920 --> 0:15:16.840 didn't show that against Dallas, and Dallas has a very 0:15:16.880 --> 0:15:19.480 good defense similar to Phillies, by the way, but they 0:15:19.560 --> 0:15:24.560 did certainly did show it against Seattle. Now, what is 0:15:24.680 --> 0:15:30.800 concerning is Rock party on the road in the playoffs 0:15:31.200 --> 0:15:34.920 for the very first time. That is concerning. But I'm 0:15:34.960 --> 0:15:42.000 gonna tell you what I didn't like from Philadelphia this weekend. Now, 0:15:42.000 --> 0:15:47.040 they played great, and Jalen was excellent, and the defense 0:15:47.120 --> 0:15:50.520 was excellent. There's not many, you know, holes to poke 0:15:50.600 --> 0:15:54.520 in their performance at the end of the first quarter, 0:15:55.840 --> 0:15:59.320 you're beating up the Giants, who the Giants were not 0:15:59.400 --> 0:16:02.000 a good team this year. Congrats to them from making 0:16:02.000 --> 0:16:04.400 the division round. But that's not a great team. But 0:16:04.600 --> 0:16:11.080 like skycam showed Nick Sirianni and he looked straight into 0:16:11.080 --> 0:16:16.920 the camera and did this whole like an mean no, no, no. 0:16:17.000 --> 0:16:19.520 That was different that actually in mind when he ran 0:16:19.640 --> 0:16:21.880 down to the pylon and yelled at the ref and 0:16:21.920 --> 0:16:23.640 he said, I'm allowed to be down here. I know 0:16:23.680 --> 0:16:27.040 what the believe I'm doing. This was him looking into 0:16:27.080 --> 0:16:32.040 the camera and doing one of these like like, yeah, 0:16:32.280 --> 0:16:38.840 where are those guys? And I felt, hmm, maybe maybe 0:16:39.360 --> 0:16:42.280 believe in the hype a little too much for a 0:16:42.360 --> 0:16:46.400 team that didn't finish the year great and now in 0:16:46.480 --> 0:16:50.320 their first playoff game, played a team that was, by 0:16:50.360 --> 0:16:53.240 any advanced metric, by anything, one of the very worst 0:16:53.240 --> 0:16:55.880 teams to make the postseason by record, by eye test, 0:16:55.960 --> 0:17:00.600 by advanced metrics. You didn't have a Niners team that 0:17:01.680 --> 0:17:06.000 I feel like has had members of this coaching staff 0:17:07.160 --> 0:17:14.919 working on this exact matchup for probably six weeks. The Niners, 0:17:15.480 --> 0:17:19.200 who knew they were winning that division for a long time, 0:17:19.560 --> 0:17:22.800 and who knew this was going to be the team 0:17:22.840 --> 0:17:24.960 they had to get through. Now you can say the 0:17:25.000 --> 0:17:27.520 same thing about Philadelphia that they have been working on 0:17:27.600 --> 0:17:31.440 the Niners. But I would argue harder to game plan 0:17:31.520 --> 0:17:37.120 for the Niners because of their positional versatility, because there's 0:17:37.200 --> 0:17:41.840 less film on Party available, and because of the Shanahan offense. 0:17:44.440 --> 0:17:48.280 I think the Niners can win not I think I 0:17:48.440 --> 0:17:53.359 know the Niners can win a low scoring game or 0:17:53.400 --> 0:17:57.879 a high scoring game. I don't know that. I believe 0:17:58.000 --> 0:18:07.080 that Philadelphia can shut down the Niners off correct. And 0:18:08.080 --> 0:18:12.879 now the road part of it is concerning, and they're listen, 0:18:13.520 --> 0:18:17.520 Brock Party is likely turning into a pumpkin at some 0:18:17.640 --> 0:18:20.480 point in the next few weeks. Is he gonna be 0:18:20.520 --> 0:18:22.760 on the road in Philadelphia, one of the most hostile 0:18:22.840 --> 0:18:26.560 environments in the league. Maybe, But I also think Shanahan's 0:18:26.640 --> 0:18:33.120 going to try to coach around having to put rock 0:18:33.200 --> 0:18:36.680 Party in those spots. Also, let me be honest here, 0:18:36.840 --> 0:18:39.600 not just because of the bet on the San Francisco side, 0:18:40.000 --> 0:18:42.880 but I am pretty pot committed to not fully believing 0:18:42.880 --> 0:18:45.800 in Philadelphia, so I might as well keep that going. 0:18:46.400 --> 0:18:50.040 I'd love getting three here, getting two and a half 0:18:50.119 --> 0:18:53.360 is something I'm going to be betting than well, I'm 0:18:53.359 --> 0:18:55.880 gonna be essentially betting the Niners on the money line. 0:18:55.920 --> 0:18:58.320 Just to begin with, I'll take the Niners plus two 0:18:58.359 --> 0:18:58.800 and a half. 0:18:58.880 --> 0:19:00.720 So those four teams that we talkked about earlier with 0:19:00.720 --> 0:19:04.080 the four rookie quarterbacks, yeah, they all had top three defenses. 0:19:04.240 --> 0:19:04.760 Yeah. 0:19:04.920 --> 0:19:07.520 Tampa had the number three defense in nineteen ninety nine, 0:19:07.880 --> 0:19:10.960 Pittsburgh had the number one defense in two thousand and four. Yep, 0:19:11.040 --> 0:19:13.879 the Ravens had the number three defense in two thousand 0:19:13.920 --> 0:19:16.920 and eight, and the Jets had the number one defense 0:19:16.960 --> 0:19:18.000 in two thousand and nine. 0:19:18.320 --> 0:19:21.040 Yeah, so that and the Niners have a top three 0:19:21.080 --> 0:19:24.960 defense this year. The point that I'm making is what 0:19:25.119 --> 0:19:27.280 those teams have in common with this Niners team is 0:19:27.320 --> 0:19:30.200 a great defense. With those teams don't have in common 0:19:30.240 --> 0:19:33.240 with this Niners team is an explosive offense. And to 0:19:33.320 --> 0:19:37.320 the Niners, because of McCaffrey, because of Deebo, because of Ayuk, 0:19:37.440 --> 0:19:40.680 because of Kittle, they have a very explosive offense. And 0:19:41.040 --> 0:19:44.960 we talked last week about how they can put McCaffrey, 0:19:45.240 --> 0:19:49.000 used Check Kittle, Ayuk, and Deebo on the field and 0:19:49.080 --> 0:19:50.840 you don't know what formation they're going to be in. 0:19:51.119 --> 0:19:52.760 They can be in five wide, they can be in 0:19:52.800 --> 0:19:55.159 two tight end, they can be into running back, and 0:19:55.240 --> 0:19:59.800 it is very, very difficult to match up with them. Also, 0:20:00.760 --> 0:20:05.200 I know Lane Johnson's back, and he came back from 0:20:05.240 --> 0:20:08.000 that injury and he looked good against the Giants. I 0:20:08.040 --> 0:20:11.800 wonder how that groin injury is gonna play with Nicky 0:20:11.800 --> 0:20:16.119 Bosa screaming around the edge on. So for all those reasons, 0:20:16.280 --> 0:20:22.080 I like San Francisco next game. Pray for brook next game. Demase. 0:20:22.760 --> 0:20:26.280 All right, So we got Kansas City plus one for Cincinnati. 0:20:26.359 --> 0:20:29.040 Yes, and so let me talk about this line for 0:20:29.080 --> 0:20:31.760 a minute, because by the time people hear this, my 0:20:31.800 --> 0:20:34.679 guess is it'll actually be a pick them. So it 0:20:34.840 --> 0:20:39.280 opened Chiefs minus two and a half. It instantly, within minutes, 0:20:40.040 --> 0:20:43.119 went to Chiefs minus one and a half by the 0:20:43.160 --> 0:20:48.120 next morning, By Monday morning, it was Chiefs plus one 0:20:48.119 --> 0:20:54.400 and a half. By Tuesday afternoon it was Chiefs plus 0:20:54.520 --> 0:20:57.359 two and a half. So it went from Kansas City 0:20:57.480 --> 0:21:00.440 minus two and a half at the instant open to 0:21:00.520 --> 0:21:03.960 Kancity minus one and a half very quickly thereafter, then 0:21:04.040 --> 0:21:08.320 through the zero all the way to Cincinnati. Minus two 0:21:08.359 --> 0:21:12.280 and a half. It has now since my homes practiced, 0:21:13.080 --> 0:21:16.000 it has now moved to Kansas City plus one and 0:21:16.000 --> 0:21:19.160 a half to plus one, And it looks like it's 0:21:19.200 --> 0:21:21.560 going to end up being a pick them if not. 0:21:21.680 --> 0:21:24.320 Chiefs favored by a point by kickoff. But we'll see you, 0:21:24.320 --> 0:21:25.280 but go ahead. 0:21:25.080 --> 0:21:27.760 All right. The Bengals are getting seventy percent of the 0:21:27.760 --> 0:21:30.600 bets is road favorites. Yeah, you gotta love that. Yep, 0:21:30.920 --> 0:21:32.919 my moms will be a home dog for only the 0:21:32.960 --> 0:21:36.359 second time, for the second time ever. Yep, lost to 0:21:36.400 --> 0:21:39.879 Buffalo is a home dog this year? At what number? 0:21:39.880 --> 0:21:42.680 Would you take the Bengals plus twenty plus twenty five? 0:21:42.760 --> 0:21:45.880 Okay, well, listen, I wouldn't be taking the I wouldn't 0:21:45.880 --> 0:21:52.640 be taking the Bengals just out of principle. I don't 0:21:52.680 --> 0:21:57.720 think this is a great game. I don't think this 0:21:57.960 --> 0:22:01.440 is a game that comes down to the final possession. 0:22:01.960 --> 0:22:03.680 Well, you think it's one of these teams he's gonna 0:22:03.680 --> 0:22:05.800 blow the other team out. I think bad game. 0:22:06.760 --> 0:22:08.720 I think the Chiefs are gonna be. 0:22:08.720 --> 0:22:11.840 In firm control of this game. That's interesting. 0:22:11.960 --> 0:22:16.560 I think that there's a lot going into the smoke 0:22:16.640 --> 0:22:21.880 on the Bengals right now. One is people were legitimately 0:22:21.920 --> 0:22:25.480 concerned about Mahomes's health. I understand that, but I think 0:22:25.520 --> 0:22:27.600 he's gonna be okay. I saw him jogging around the 0:22:27.600 --> 0:22:30.680 practice field. I don't think he's gonna be one hundred 0:22:30.640 --> 0:22:33.080 day the guy's the fact that he was a full 0:22:33.160 --> 0:22:37.520 participant in practice, not limited, but a full participant is 0:22:38.160 --> 0:22:39.200 very very positive. 0:22:39.240 --> 0:22:41.920 Go ahead, So can you like, I know you can't 0:22:42.000 --> 0:22:45.399 like like lie on those types of things, but like, 0:22:45.440 --> 0:22:48.040 could you like fudge it a little bit like saying 0:22:48.080 --> 0:22:50.040 he was a full participant but really like he. 0:22:50.080 --> 0:22:52.560 Was there the whole time, he was moving around, but like, yeah, 0:22:52.640 --> 0:22:54.560 still you could. 0:22:54.720 --> 0:22:56.640 You could get in trouble for it, but you could 0:22:56.680 --> 0:22:58.800 because the media is not there for the whole practice. 0:22:59.160 --> 0:23:01.919 But when was there, we have video of him jogging 0:23:01.960 --> 0:23:04.400 and looking fine and he wasn't in a walking boot 0:23:04.440 --> 0:23:08.320 or any of that stuff. So there's that. Here's another 0:23:08.400 --> 0:23:11.720 stat that I think will blow people's minds, and we 0:23:11.840 --> 0:23:16.320 talked about it a lot on the Thursday pot Joe 0:23:16.400 --> 0:23:19.760 Burrow is five and one in the postseason. The Bengals 0:23:19.760 --> 0:23:24.040 have been this dominant postseason team, clutch, Joe cool, all 0:23:24.080 --> 0:23:30.399 of it. In their six postseason games. Do you know 0:23:30.440 --> 0:23:32.520 how many offensive touchdowns they have? 0:23:33.960 --> 0:23:38.440 I'm sorry I left out a very important partover look. 0:23:38.359 --> 0:23:41.879