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Speaker 3: Welcome in episode one twenty three, our Conference Championship weekend
Speaker 3: edition of What's Right with Nick Right, our weekly gambling show.
Speaker 3: Last week we went to and two. We should have
Speaker 3: gone three and one. Our stream of being on the
Speaker 3: right side, or streak of not having losing weeks continues.
Speaker 3: Two and two is nothing to right home about. But
Speaker 3: there's only four games we and well, let's just go
Speaker 3: through them right now before we get to this Weekends Picks,
Speaker 3: which you guys, if you've been listening to this show
Speaker 3: throughout the year, you probably know this Weekends Picks. So
Speaker 3: our playoff records now six and four, Our season record
Speaker 3: fifty six fifty two in two, which does not sound great.
Speaker 3: But if you know what we were looking like around
Speaker 3: week fifteen, you know what a heater were on Cincinnati
Speaker 3: plus five and a half at Buffalo. We told you
Speaker 3: they'd win outright, We told you they were the better
Speaker 3: team that was proven out San Francisco minus three and
Speaker 3: a half against Dallas. That game, as we discussed on Monday,
Speaker 3: went about as hilariously as everyone could predict it would.
Speaker 3: Giants plus seven and a half at Philly was flatly
Speaker 3: the wrong side of that bet. But if you remember
Speaker 3: last Friday's show, I said that was the game I
Speaker 3: felt the least confident. That was the game that I
Speaker 3: was just like a divisional game. I'll grab the points.
Speaker 3: We weren't sure how healthy Jalen was going to be,
Speaker 3: but there was a chance the game was going to
Speaker 3: go exactly the way it did, which is it gets
Speaker 3: out of hand early and Philly rolls all over them.
Speaker 3: And then there's Kansas City minus eight and a half
Speaker 3: against Jacksonville. Now that did not cover, but that is
Speaker 3: flatley and clearly was the right side of the bet
Speaker 3: because in order for that to not cover by a
Speaker 3: point and a half. You needed Mahomes to get hurt,
Speaker 3: Mahomes to when he came back in be incredibly hampered
Speaker 3: due to injury, and then the Chiefs to fail to
Speaker 3: pick up consecutive third and ones that would have allowed
Speaker 3: them to essentially salt the game away. Even though all
Speaker 3: of that happened, it was still Chiefs winning by ten
Speaker 3: with less than a minute remaining. Then the Jags, to
Speaker 3: their credit, did do the smart thing, kick the field
Speaker 3: goals so you can then attempt the on side and
Speaker 3: the hail mary. They got the field goal, they didn't
Speaker 3: get the on side and the hail mary. So we
Speaker 3: feel fine about how we did last week, but not
Speaker 3: nearly as great as how we could feel about this
Speaker 3: week if we end up nailing these two games. Because well, Demonse,
Speaker 3: I'll welcome you in now and I'll let you discuss
Speaker 3: what has been the underlying story of this entire gambling season,
Speaker 3: our preseason super Bowl bet. Go right ahead.
Speaker 2: Yes, before we get into your picks for this week,
Speaker 2: let's talk about your big super Bowl prediction. Yeah, we
Speaker 2: talked about it in the first show. Yeah, we're going
Speaker 2: to show.
Speaker 3: Oh, we have a clip, all right, let's watch the clip.
Speaker 3: My Super Bowl pick is Chiefs Niners. If you bet
Speaker 3: the Chiefs win the AFC and the Niners to win
Speaker 3: the NFC. It's a rematch, by the way, Super Bowl
Speaker 3: from a few years ago. That is plus five thousand,
Speaker 3: fifty to one. Demonse, there's four teams left. The Eagles
Speaker 3: are left, the Bengals are left, and who are the
Speaker 3: other two two teams remaining?
Speaker 2: The forty nine Ers and the Chiefs.
Speaker 3: So we are as close as we can get to
Speaker 3: hitting that fifty to one. Now, you go right ahead.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so you obviously called that back when the first
Speaker 2: episode of this particular show aired.
Speaker 3: Yeah, can you walk timber second?
Speaker 2: Yep, can you walk us through your thought process and
Speaker 2: what made you choose this particular bet.
Speaker 3: Okay, So why did I like the Chiefs and the
Speaker 3: Niners before the year. So we'll start with the Chiefs.
Speaker 3: I thought a number of things were happening. One is,
Speaker 3: I thought people were way overvaluing the AFC West. Now listen,
Speaker 3: I thought the Chargers were good enough to make the
Speaker 3: conference championship game, and maybe they would have been. They
Speaker 3: obviously got absolutely annihilated by injuries, and they still found
Speaker 3: a way into the playoffs. Were up twenty seven to
Speaker 3: nothing in their playoff game. But I thought the Raiders
Speaker 3: were not going to be very good, and I the
Speaker 3: Broncos were hilariously overvalued. Additionally, what I did get wrong
Speaker 3: was I thought the Bengals were gonna take a bit
Speaker 3: of a step back. Now it looked like that was correct.
Speaker 3: At the beginning of the season, I had the Bengals
Speaker 3: making the playoffs, making it as a wild card team.
Speaker 3: The Bengals have been obviously one of the hottest teams
Speaker 3: in the league ever since the opening month of the season.
Speaker 3: But the other part of it was there was real
Speaker 3: value on the Chiefs because everyone was anointing the Buffalo Bills,
Speaker 3: and so the Chiefs were not the overwhelming favorites within
Speaker 3: their division. They weren't the favorites at all. They were
Speaker 3: the favorites in their division, were not overwhelming as they
Speaker 3: had been in years past. You could get plus money
Speaker 3: on them to win their division, meaning they were the
Speaker 3: favorites for the AFC West. But Chiefs versus the field,
Speaker 3: they were an underdog according to the money on it.
Speaker 3: And then there was the Bills that were treated like
Speaker 3: this unstoppable juggernaut that I just simply did not buy
Speaker 3: into so for all of those reasons, plus the fact
Speaker 3: I thought the U market was slightly overstating the impact
Speaker 3: of Tyreek Hill being gone. And I knew now, to
Speaker 3: be fair, I didn't pick the Chiefs to be the
Speaker 3: one seed. I thought they were gonna have to play
Speaker 3: a road playoff game or two for the first time
Speaker 3: in the Mahomes era. But I knew what they're playing
Speaker 3: was on defense, in playing all these young players, half
Speaker 3: dozen rookies getting significant snaps, and the idea then would
Speaker 3: be by the end of the year, by games fifteen, sixteen, seventeen, eighteen,
Speaker 3: those rookies are no longer really rookies, and the defense
Speaker 3: could be peaking at just the right time, and I
Speaker 3: knew Mahomes would be fine. And to be honest, that
Speaker 3: is exactly what happened. The Bills were frauds. The AFC
Speaker 3: West was not the greatest division ever, and the Chiefs
Speaker 3: defense now sits here today in the NFL in sacks
Speaker 3: the most pressures of any team in the league outside
Speaker 3: of Dallas, and the most quarterback hits of any team
Speaker 3: in the league outside of Dallas. With these young players
Speaker 3: coming into their own and the Chiefs offense led the
Speaker 3: league in points and led the league in yards. So
Speaker 3: that was the chief side of the bet. Then there's
Speaker 3: the Niners side of the bet. The Niners bet was
Speaker 3: essentially a twofold bet. The first one was I looked
Speaker 3: around the NFC and I did not believe in the
Speaker 3: Eagles the way everyone else seemed. They were the trendy team.
Speaker 3: We talked about it. People are talking about that they
Speaker 3: could be the one seed, and I said, listen. I
Speaker 3: reluctantly picked them to win their division, but I did
Speaker 3: not think they would be a fourteen and three team. Well,
Speaker 3: they were a fourteen and three team and could have
Speaker 3: been better than that, if we're being totally honest, they
Speaker 3: were what thirteen and one? And then Jalen got hurt.
Speaker 3: So I missed on the Eagles, but the rest of it.
Speaker 3: What was our favorite preseason win total? Bucks under eleven
Speaker 3: and a half. I didn't look at the Bucks as
Speaker 3: a real contender. The Packers, to me, missed their window.
Speaker 3: I didn't look at the Packers as a real contender.
Speaker 3: The Rams we knew that. We didn't know Stafford was
Speaker 3: gonna get hurt, but he did go into the year
Speaker 3: with an elbow injury. We knew they'd miss von Miller,
Speaker 3: we knew they'd miss Odell. So the Rams to me,
Speaker 3: were not a dynamite contender. So now we're really only
Speaker 3: down to a handful of teams as far as who
Speaker 3: could win the NFC and the Niners. It wasn't that
Speaker 3: I thought Trey Lance was going to instantly come in
Speaker 3: and be better than Jimmy Garoppolo. But Jimmy Garoppolo statistically
Speaker 3: is one of the worst playoff quarterbacks ever. He has
Speaker 3: played six career playoff games. He has four touchdowns, he
Speaker 3: has six interceptions. He has a passer rating of seventy four.
Speaker 3: He is the worst postseason fourth quarter fourth quarter quarterback ever,
Speaker 3: a passer rating of less than twenty in his career
Speaker 3: in the postseason in the fourth quarter. And so my
Speaker 3: logic there was the Niners by the end of the
Speaker 3: season are going to have better quarterback play than they'd
Speaker 3: had at any point during the Jimmy Garoppolo era. Now
Speaker 3: that ended up being true, But it wasn't because of
Speaker 3: Trey Lance. It was because of Brock Purty. But Mike
Speaker 3: Kyle Shanahan has coached eight playoff games with the Niners.
Speaker 3: The two best quarterbacking performances that he's gotten have been
Speaker 3: the two Brock Party games. So I loved the Niners defense.
Speaker 3: Loved Damiko Ryans. We said it on the show before
Speaker 3: the year, now he's the new head coaching candidate. Loved
Speaker 3: their skill position guys, and I thought Trey Lance was
Speaker 3: going to add a dynamic to the offense as far
Speaker 3: as quarterback run game that Shanahan's offense would be just
Speaker 3: utterly devastating with. Now that never came to fruition. The
Speaker 3: guy played five quarter and broke his leg. But and
Speaker 3: then Jimmy G came in, and once they traded for
Speaker 3: McCaffrey after the Chiefs game, they were rolling. And then
Speaker 3: I think the best thing that could happen to him
Speaker 3: was Jimmy G goes out. And I don't think Perty's great.
Speaker 3: I don't even know if Perty's good, but Perty is
Speaker 3: not a terrible playoff quarterback. The way Jimmy G has been,
Speaker 3: the NFC is wide open. Now what did I say
Speaker 3: when I was explaining this whole thing. My two big
Speaker 3: misses were underrating the Eagles and underrating the Bengals. I
Speaker 3: had them both making the playoffs. I had neither of
Speaker 3: them as actual Super Bowl contenders. Either one of those
Speaker 3: teams could of course ruin my fifty to one bet,
Speaker 3: but and the.
Speaker 2: But got a chance to be responsible in edge it.
Speaker 3: I don't hedge bets. I don't. I'm not hedging you.
Speaker 3: I would be This is a do as I say,
Speaker 3: now as I do type of thing. If you had
Speaker 3: this future writing, I would be hassling you on a
Speaker 3: daily basis, trying to convince you to hedge it.
Speaker 2: But yeah, I was about to say, I can't afford
Speaker 2: to not have sixteen thousands of my bank account.
Speaker 3: Well, even if it were, I think let's say you
Speaker 3: made one hundred dollar bet and it was to win
Speaker 3: five thousand, you know what I mean, instead of one
Speaker 3: thousand dollars bet to win fifty thousand. If it was
Speaker 3: one hundred dollars bet to win five thousand, and you
Speaker 3: right now could get fifteen hundred out of it, I
Speaker 3: would be strongly encouraging you to take it. I don't
Speaker 3: know if you.
Speaker 2: Would bring it back down to my scale.
Speaker 3: What do you think you would do? Because you made
Speaker 3: one hundred dollar bet before. So let's say you made
Speaker 3: a hundred dollar future and it was fifty to one
Speaker 3: and you Now the little cash out option says fifteen hundred.
Speaker 3: What are you doing?
Speaker 2: I think I'm sticking with it.
Speaker 3: Okay, let me ask this. We're watching the game Sunday.
Speaker 3: The Niners win the early game. Now the cash out
Speaker 3: option is twenty four hundred. All it's either gonna sand
Speaker 3: so you can either click yes, or it's gonna be zero,
Speaker 3: or it's gonna be five thousand. What are you doing?
Speaker 3: What are you doing? What do you think?
Speaker 2: Hey man, I'm hoping Joe Burrow gets banged up early.
Speaker 3: Oh okay, well.
Speaker 2: I'm kidding. No, I would pray for injury, but I
Speaker 2: definitely think i'd still have to, especially if they're forty
Speaker 2: nine Ers were to win early. I couldn't see myself.
Speaker 3: Now.
Speaker 2: This happened to me earlier in the early in the year.
Speaker 2: What happened with the parlay? And it was like, the
Speaker 2: uh is the Packers playing the Bills? I think, oh, yeah,
Speaker 2: the Packers plus yeah, ten and a half or eleven.
Speaker 3: Yeah, the Bills were it was Sunday night football. Yeah,
Speaker 3: the Bills were crushing them. And then the Bills ended
Speaker 3: up having a terrible second half and the Packers ended
Speaker 3: up Yeah, losing twenty seven to seventeen. Yeah, it was
Speaker 3: a miraculus cover. But you didn't cash out of that one. No,
Speaker 3: And if you remember during that one when the bills
Speaker 3: went up huge early, your cash out on it was nothing.
Speaker 3: It was terrible. All right, let's get into these games.
Speaker 3: San Francisco is getting two and a half points at Philadelphia.
Speaker 3: Unlike the Chiefs line, which has moved all over the place,
Speaker 3: this line has been quite static. Demonte go ahead.
Speaker 2: Jalen Hurts the season and this season and is a
Speaker 2: twenty and three as a favorite in his career.
Speaker 3: Sorry, yeahs, and he's fifteen to one overall this season.
Speaker 3: As far as just straight up wins, go ahead, right.
Speaker 2: Four ricky quarterbacks have ever been in Four ricky quarterbacks
Speaker 2: have ever been in a championship game? Yeah, Mark Sanchez,
Speaker 2: Joe Flacco, Ben Roethlisberger, Sean King, all, oh, and four
Speaker 2: straight up?
Speaker 3: Yeah, So that doesn't. None of those factors really bother
Speaker 3: me here. So let's go through those rookie quarterbacks that
Speaker 3: we're talking about. Mark Sanchez, Joe Flacco, Ben Roethlisberger, Sean King.
Speaker 3: So we're talking about the Jets of the late two
Speaker 3: thousand aughts, the Ravens of the mid two thousands, bent,
Speaker 3: the Steelers of the same era, and then the Bucks
Speaker 3: of late nineties. Okay, yeah, Shaun King twenty some years ago.
Speaker 3: So all of those teams were trying to win games
Speaker 3: thirteen to ten, seventeen fourteen. They were trying to win
Speaker 3: purely on their the strength of their defense. So, yes,
Speaker 3: the rookie quarterbacks, it would have been nice if they
Speaker 3: could make plays, but those guys really hadn't been making
Speaker 3: plays all year. And those were defensive oriented teams. Nin
Speaker 3: have the best defense in football, and since they got
Speaker 3: Christian McCaffrey and hell forget that, since Rock Purty took
Speaker 3: over one of the highest scoring offenses in football. They
Speaker 3: didn't show that against Dallas, and Dallas has a very
Speaker 3: good defense similar to Phillies, by the way, but they
Speaker 3: did certainly did show it against Seattle. Now, what is
Speaker 3: concerning is Rock party on the road in the playoffs
Speaker 3: for the very first time. That is concerning. But I'm
Speaker 3: gonna tell you what I didn't like from Philadelphia this weekend. Now,
Speaker 3: they played great, and Jalen was excellent, and the defense
Speaker 3: was excellent. There's not many, you know, holes to poke
Speaker 3: in their performance at the end of the first quarter,
Speaker 3: you're beating up the Giants, who the Giants were not
Speaker 3: a good team this year. Congrats to them from making
Speaker 3: the division round. But that's not a great team. But
Speaker 3: like skycam showed Nick Sirianni and he looked straight into
Speaker 3: the camera and did this whole like an mean no, no, no.
Speaker 3: That was different that actually in mind when he ran
Speaker 3: down to the pylon and yelled at the ref and
Speaker 3: he said, I'm allowed to be down here. I know
Speaker 3: what the believe I'm doing. This was him looking into
Speaker 3: the camera and doing one of these like like, yeah,
Speaker 3: where are those guys? And I felt, hmm, maybe maybe
Speaker 3: believe in the hype a little too much for a
Speaker 3: team that didn't finish the year great and now in
Speaker 3: their first playoff game, played a team that was, by
Speaker 3: any advanced metric, by anything, one of the very worst
Speaker 3: teams to make the postseason by record, by eye test,
Speaker 3: by advanced metrics. You didn't have a Niners team that
Speaker 3: I feel like has had members of this coaching staff
Speaker 3: working on this exact matchup for probably six weeks. The Niners,
Speaker 3: who knew they were winning that division for a long time,
Speaker 3: and who knew this was going to be the team
Speaker 3: they had to get through. Now you can say the
Speaker 3: same thing about Philadelphia that they have been working on
Speaker 3: the Niners. But I would argue harder to game plan
Speaker 3: for the Niners because of their positional versatility, because there's
Speaker 3: less film on Party available, and because of the Shanahan offense.
Speaker 3: I think the Niners can win not I think I
Speaker 3: know the Niners can win a low scoring game or
Speaker 3: a high scoring game. I don't know that. I believe
Speaker 3: that Philadelphia can shut down the Niners off correct. And
Speaker 3: now the road part of it is concerning, and they're listen,
Speaker 3: Brock Party is likely turning into a pumpkin at some
Speaker 3: point in the next few weeks. Is he gonna be
Speaker 3: on the road in Philadelphia, one of the most hostile
Speaker 3: environments in the league. Maybe, But I also think Shanahan's
Speaker 3: going to try to coach around having to put rock
Speaker 3: Party in those spots. Also, let me be honest here,
Speaker 3: not just because of the bet on the San Francisco side,
Speaker 3: but I am pretty pot committed to not fully believing
Speaker 3: in Philadelphia, so I might as well keep that going.
Speaker 3: I'd love getting three here, getting two and a half
Speaker 3: is something I'm going to be betting than well, I'm
Speaker 3: gonna be essentially betting the Niners on the money line.
Speaker 3: Just to begin with, I'll take the Niners plus two
Speaker 3: and a half.
Speaker 2: So those four teams that we talkked about earlier with
Speaker 2: the four rookie quarterbacks, yeah, they all had top three defenses.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Tampa had the number three defense in nineteen ninety nine,
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh had the number one defense in two thousand and four. Yep,
Speaker 2: the Ravens had the number three defense in two thousand
Speaker 2: and eight, and the Jets had the number one defense
Speaker 2: in two thousand and nine.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so that and the Niners have a top three
Speaker 3: defense this year. The point that I'm making is what
Speaker 3: those teams have in common with this Niners team is
Speaker 3: a great defense. With those teams don't have in common
Speaker 3: with this Niners team is an explosive offense. And to
Speaker 3: the Niners, because of McCaffrey, because of Deebo, because of Ayuk,
Speaker 3: because of Kittle, they have a very explosive offense. And
Speaker 3: we talked last week about how they can put McCaffrey,
Speaker 3: used Check Kittle, Ayuk, and Deebo on the field and
Speaker 3: you don't know what formation they're going to be in.
Speaker 3: They can be in five wide, they can be in
Speaker 3: two tight end, they can be into running back, and
Speaker 3: it is very, very difficult to match up with them. Also,
Speaker 3: I know Lane Johnson's back, and he came back from
Speaker 3: that injury and he looked good against the Giants. I
Speaker 3: wonder how that groin injury is gonna play with Nicky
Speaker 3: Bosa screaming around the edge on. So for all those reasons,
Speaker 3: I like San Francisco next game. Pray for brook next game. Demase.
Speaker 2: All right, So we got Kansas City plus one for Cincinnati.
Speaker 3: Yes, and so let me talk about this line for
Speaker 3: a minute, because by the time people hear this, my
Speaker 3: guess is it'll actually be a pick them. So it
Speaker 3: opened Chiefs minus two and a half. It instantly, within minutes,
Speaker 3: went to Chiefs minus one and a half by the
Speaker 3: next morning, By Monday morning, it was Chiefs plus one
Speaker 3: and a half. By Tuesday afternoon it was Chiefs plus
Speaker 3: two and a half. So it went from Kansas City
Speaker 3: minus two and a half at the instant open to
Speaker 3: Kancity minus one and a half very quickly thereafter, then
Speaker 3: through the zero all the way to Cincinnati. Minus two
Speaker 3: and a half. It has now since my homes practiced,
Speaker 3: it has now moved to Kansas City plus one and
Speaker 3: a half to plus one, And it looks like it's
Speaker 3: going to end up being a pick them if not.
Speaker 3: Chiefs favored by a point by kickoff. But we'll see you,
Speaker 3: but go ahead.
Speaker 2: All right. The Bengals are getting seventy percent of the
Speaker 2: bets is road favorites. Yeah, you gotta love that. Yep,
Speaker 2: my moms will be a home dog for only the
Speaker 2: second time, for the second time ever. Yep, lost to
Speaker 2: Buffalo is a home dog this year? At what number?
Speaker 2: Would you take the Bengals plus twenty plus twenty five?
Speaker 3: Okay, well, listen, I wouldn't be taking the I wouldn't
Speaker 3: be taking the Bengals just out of principle. I don't
Speaker 3: think this is a great game. I don't think this
Speaker 3: is a game that comes down to the final possession.
Speaker 2: Well, you think it's one of these teams he's gonna
Speaker 2: blow the other team out. I think bad game.
Speaker 3: I think the Chiefs are gonna be.
Speaker 2: In firm control of this game. That's interesting.
Speaker 3: I think that there's a lot going into the smoke
Speaker 3: on the Bengals right now. One is people were legitimately
Speaker 3: concerned about Mahomes's health. I understand that, but I think
Speaker 3: he's gonna be okay. I saw him jogging around the
Speaker 3: practice field. I don't think he's gonna be one hundred
Speaker 3: day the guy's the fact that he was a full
Speaker 3: participant in practice, not limited, but a full participant is
Speaker 3: very very positive.
Speaker 2: Go ahead, So can you like, I know you can't
Speaker 2: like like lie on those types of things, but like,
Speaker 2: could you like fudge it a little bit like saying
Speaker 2: he was a full participant but really like he.
Speaker 4: Was there the whole time, he was moving around, but like, yeah,
Speaker 4: still you could.
Speaker 3: You could get in trouble for it, but you could
Speaker 3: because the media is not there for the whole practice.
Speaker 3: But when was there, we have video of him jogging
Speaker 3: and looking fine and he wasn't in a walking boot
Speaker 3: or any of that stuff. So there's that. Here's another
Speaker 3: stat that I think will blow people's minds, and we
Speaker 3: talked about it a lot on the Thursday pot Joe
Speaker 3: Burrow is five and one in the postseason. The Bengals
Speaker 3: have been this dominant postseason team, clutch, Joe cool, all
Speaker 3: of it. In their six postseason games. Do you know
Speaker 3: how many offensive touchdowns they have?
Speaker 2: I'm sorry I left out a very important partover look.
Speaker 3: No, well, hold on in there. In the Bengals six
Speaker 3: postseason games, how many fourth quarter off is Joe Burrow
Speaker 3: is the mister clutch all of it. How many fourth
Speaker 3: quarter playoff touchdowns do you think they have fourth quarter
Speaker 3: offensive playoff touchdowns? Because we all saw Sam Hubbard the
Speaker 3: fumble six in the six games, you think they have two?
Speaker 2: The enter zero zero.
Speaker 3: Okay, So the Bengals, who again I give massive credit
Speaker 3: to and I give massive credit to Burrow. I think
Speaker 3: people are slightly misremembering how they've won their games. So
Speaker 3: let's go through all of them before we talk about
Speaker 3: them coming to Arrowhead, which the players on the Bengals,
Speaker 3: not Joe, but the other ones are calling burrowhead because
Speaker 3: he won their one time okay, their first playoff game
Speaker 3: ever against the Las Vegas Raiders. They had a ten
Speaker 3: point lead going into the fourth quarter, They added a
Speaker 3: field goal, and they escaped with a seven point win
Speaker 3: after Derek Carr refused to throw the ball into the
Speaker 3: end zone. They scored three fourth quarter points in that game.
Speaker 3: Against the the Tennessee Titans. It was tied going into
Speaker 3: the fourth quarter. They scored zero points that entire fourth
Speaker 3: quarter until with twenty seconds left, Ryan Tannehill threw one
Speaker 3: of the worst picks you've ever seen right around midfield
Speaker 3: and they ended up kicking a field goal at the gun.
Speaker 3: So that is now six fourth quarter points. Against the Chiefs,
Speaker 3: it was tied going into the fourth quarter. They kicked
Speaker 3: one field goal in the fourth quarter, and then of
Speaker 3: course obviously kicked a field goal in overtime, but that
Speaker 3: is now nine fourth quarter points against the Rams. They
Speaker 3: had a twenty to sixteen lead going into the fourth
Speaker 3: quarter in the Super Bowl and scored zero points against
Speaker 3: the Ravens. That game going into the fourth quarter was
Speaker 3: tied seventeen to seventeen. Tyler Huntley fumbled Sam Hubbard returned
Speaker 3: it and that was their only points of the fourth quarter.
Speaker 3: And against the Buffalo Bills, they were up twenty four
Speaker 3: to ten going into the fourth quarter, added a field
Speaker 3: goal and that was it. So they have been excellent
Speaker 3: defensively during this playoff run. The turnover stuff is historic.
Speaker 3: I think it's now thirteen to three the turnovers, or
Speaker 3: it's thirteen to three or fourteen to three or twelve
Speaker 3: to three, something like that. Fourced turnovers to turnovers given up.
Speaker 3: And the defense. The defense has been unbelievable and Burrow
Speaker 3: has been clutch on third and longs, particularly early in
Speaker 3: the games. However, with all that said, they have never
Speaker 3: scored twenty eight points in a playoff game. They have
Speaker 3: never scored a fourth quarter offensive touchdown. They are averaging
Speaker 3: as a team two points aside from the Hubbard player.
Speaker 3: As an offense, I should say two points per fourth quarter.
Speaker 3: So the Bengals unstoppable offense not exactly true. Now we
Speaker 3: talk about this. The story going into the Bills game
Speaker 3: was man down three offensive line, Bills couldn't take advantage
Speaker 3: of it. What did I tell you earlier about the
Speaker 3: Chiefs second league in sacks and pressures and quarterback hits?
Speaker 3: The single best interior defensive linemen in football since Aaron
Speaker 3: Donald had down yere plays for the Chiefs in Chris Jones.
Speaker 3: Now it's a weird Chris Jones a zero playoff sacks
Speaker 3: in his career. Why is that? Well, because he's always
Speaker 3: getting double teamed, which is why Frank Clark has the
Speaker 3: fourth most playoff sacks in NFL history. Coming around the edge.
Speaker 3: I think the Chiefs are gonna be able to take
Speaker 3: advantage of that offensive line. I think the Chiefs we
Speaker 3: forget that. The Bengals did not look like they were
Speaker 3: in the Chiefs class in the AFC Championship game last
Speaker 3: year before Mahomes made that mistake at halftime and then
Speaker 3: kind of short circuited the rest of the way. What
Speaker 3: the only truly bad playoff performance of his career. The
Speaker 3: first time these two teams met, the Chiefs had a
Speaker 3: fourth quarter lead and were driving to essentially I think
Speaker 3: salt the gameway. And of all people, Travis Kelsey fumbles
Speaker 3: the football and the Bengals end up winning the game
Speaker 3: holding on. Then after they score their touchdown, Andy Reid
Speaker 3: makes a bad decision I feel like taking the ball
Speaker 3: out of Mahomes's hands kicking a field goal. They missed
Speaker 3: the field goal. Bengals salt the game away. The Chiefs
Speaker 3: are better than them. Mahomes as great as Burrow is.
Speaker 3: Mahomes is better than Burrow. It is at arrowhead. And
Speaker 3: if you believe, as I think most people do at
Speaker 3: this point, that Mahomes has a real chance to be
Speaker 3: not one of the greatest players ever, but as a
Speaker 3: real chance to be the greatest player ever. This is
Speaker 3: the type of game and the type of moment that
Speaker 3: the greatest players ever add to their legend, not at
Speaker 3: one hundred percent a chance for redemption against the team
Speaker 3: that knocked you out last year and prevented you from
Speaker 3: going to three straight Super Bowls at you know, on
Speaker 3: an injured ankle goes out there in deals, So I listen,
Speaker 3: We're gonna do exotics later. The Chiefs minus six and
Speaker 3: a half might be on a card.
Speaker 5: I have.
Speaker 3: The Chiefs minus nine and a half might be on
Speaker 3: a card I have. I think the Chiefs look great.
Speaker 3: I think Pacheco has a big game, and I think
Speaker 3: Kadarius Tony has a big game. And I think the
Speaker 3: Kansaity Chiefs go back to the Super Bowl. So there
Speaker 3: it is Kansadity plus one, San Francisco plus two and
Speaker 3: a half. Take a quick break, play a quick game
Speaker 3: with you guys. That's next, What's right?
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Speaker 3: All right, welcome back in Championship week in gambling show,
Speaker 3: we gave you the Niners plus two and a half
Speaker 3: the Chiefs to win. That line's gonna be moving. We
Speaker 3: told you we thought it might be a pick'em line
Speaker 3: move and all about. But those are our bets. And
Speaker 3: now we're gonna play a game, and I have a
Speaker 3: feeling I'm gonna be annoyed by it. We'll see demons
Speaker 3: go right ahead.
Speaker 2: All right, So we're about to play a new game
Speaker 2: in honor of the second or the conference final.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Conference champions weekend.
Speaker 4: We're gonna call it hammer, pass, fade.
Speaker 3: Okay, So I'll.
Speaker 2: Give you three bets and you will tell me which
Speaker 2: one we should absolutely hammer, which we should pass on,
Speaker 2: and which we should fade.
Speaker 3: And go against. Okay, good, got it.
Speaker 4: So this first one we got is called the exotic hedges.
Speaker 2: So obviously you have your fifty to one chiefs forty
Speaker 2: nine ers bet while you're not hedging.
Speaker 4: There's a few ways to sort a hedge.
Speaker 2: Uh huh. We got Joe Burrow for Super Bowl MVP
Speaker 2: at plus three fifty, Jalen Hurts for Super Bowl MVP
Speaker 2: at plus three hundred, or since he to beat Philly
Speaker 2: in the Super Bowl at plus five hundred.
Speaker 3: Okay, you can't fade them all, all right, Listen, guys,
Speaker 3: first I put those back on the screen. I will
Speaker 3: give you I will play along to a degree. If
Speaker 3: I were gonna bet one of these I would be.
Speaker 3: The hammer would be Jail and Hurt super Bowl MVP,
Speaker 3: the pass would be Joe Burrow's Super Bowl MVP, and
Speaker 3: the fade going against it would be Cincinnati over Philly,
Speaker 3: because I don't think Cincinnati, with their offensive line issues,
Speaker 3: could handle either the Niners or the Eagles come the
Speaker 3: Super Bowl. However, this is one of the many reasons
Speaker 3: you don't head. I don't hedge because I'm a gambler.
Speaker 3: But one of the many things people do wrong is
Speaker 3: think they're hedging and they're not. None of those are
Speaker 3: effective hedges, guys, So let's just paint this sati. Okay,
Speaker 3: what if the Eagles win and the Chiefs win and
Speaker 3: Mahomes wins the Super Bowl. Now I've lost my fifty
Speaker 3: to one bet and I've lost this dumb bet you
Speaker 3: guys made me do that. Those are not effective hedges.
Speaker 3: I'm not public defending your guys lunacy on not understanding
Speaker 3: the way if I wanted to hedge out of my bet,
Speaker 3: It's very very simple. I put a few thousand dollars
Speaker 3: on the Philadelphia Eagles money line and then if they
Speaker 3: if then, if they win, my bet is dead and
Speaker 3: I win that few thousand dollars. If they lose, I
Speaker 3: then put ten thousand dollars on the Bengals money line.
Speaker 3: If they win, my bet is dead and I've now won,
Speaker 3: you know, the seven eight grand And if they lose,
Speaker 3: now instead of winning fifty, I've won like thirty eight
Speaker 3: because I lost a couple thousand on the first hedge
Speaker 3: and the ten thousand and second edge. That's the way
Speaker 3: you would hedge if you wanted to, not by placing
Speaker 3: exotics where you might live. Who's both next?
Speaker 4: All right? So this let's call it two touchdown scores.
Speaker 2: So Christiancaffrey for two touchdowns is a plus five hundred,
Speaker 2: Travis Kelcey for two touchdowns at plus six hundred, Chase Chase, sorry,
Speaker 2: Jamar Chase for two touchdowns at plus six fifty. All right.
Speaker 3: I don't love any of these. Actually, they're not good
Speaker 3: enough odds for my purposes. But if I were going
Speaker 3: to bet one, it'd be Christian McCaffrey.
Speaker 4: I would.
Speaker 3: Pass on Kelsey and I would fade Chase.
Speaker 2: I would one exactly.
Speaker 3: Yeah, if I were going to do it. Now, there
Speaker 3: is someone I do like as a prop bet to
Speaker 3: score a couple of touchdowns, McKinnon. But he wasn't listed there.
Speaker 2: But go right ahead, all right, So all goes, we
Speaker 2: call this all goes right. If you have a huge
Speaker 2: day Sunday, it's because at least one of these things happen.
Speaker 2: Pick one to Hammer Mahomes over three hundred and fifty
Speaker 2: passing yards at plus five hundred, McKinnon for two plus
Speaker 2: touchdowns at plus thirteen hundred, Eagles team total under twenty
Speaker 2: three and a half at plus one hundred.
Speaker 3: Okay, so I would the McKinnon at thirteen to one
Speaker 3: for two touchdowns it would be the one that I
Speaker 3: would be hammering. Not because it's the most likely it's
Speaker 3: thirteen to one, but I think there's the most value there.
Speaker 3: I don't mind the Mahomes over three hundred and fifty
Speaker 3: passing yards, But the thing is this Mahomes throwing for
Speaker 3: three fifty says it's a back and forth highly you know,
Speaker 3: tightly contested game. Mahomes gotta throw a lot or the
Speaker 3: Chiefs are losing by a lot. I don't think either
Speaker 3: one of those things is gonna happen. So I would
Speaker 3: pass on that, and I would fade if I had
Speaker 3: to the Eagles team total under because I think that
Speaker 3: Eagles Niners game might be high scoring. I don't love
Speaker 3: that one, but that's where I would be on it.
Speaker 2: The way you're talking about this Chief Cincinnati game was crazy,
Speaker 2: Like how you don't think it's going to be a
Speaker 2: back and forth game? Do you not know the history
Speaker 2: between these two teams.
Speaker 3: I know the Chiefs were up by fourteen points at
Speaker 3: the end of the season last year and Cincinnati came back,
Speaker 3: and one I know the Chiefs were up by eighteen
Speaker 3: points in the AFC Championship Game. Mahome short circuited, and
Speaker 3: the Bengals came back in one. I say the Chiefs
Speaker 3: came back and one the first time. The Bengals won
Speaker 3: all of them, obviously. And I know the Chiefs were
Speaker 3: up by seven in the game in Cincinnati and the
Speaker 3: Bengals came back and one. I also know the Bengals
Speaker 3: are calling arrowhead burrowhead. Joe Mixon's talking all that trash.
Speaker 3: Eli Apple's talking all that trash. And the Chiefs have
Speaker 3: the greatest player in the history of the sport at
Speaker 3: home and he's never lost. He has lost three playoff
Speaker 3: games ever won with five backup offensive linemen to the
Speaker 3: Bucks in the Super Bowl and two AFC Championship games
Speaker 3: in overtime.
Speaker 2: I think you're just riding on the fact that they
Speaker 2: got thought that offensive line all banged up. I think
Speaker 2: that's what you're.
Speaker 3: Well, the reason Mahomes doesn't have two rings is because
Speaker 3: of offensive line injuries. That stuff matters.
Speaker 2: Next, all right, this one's highest scoring team on Sunday.
Speaker 2: We'll leave out Cincinnati because we know you're not taking
Speaker 2: that one. Eagles plus two thirty, Chiefs plus three ten
Speaker 2: the Niners at plus four hundred.
Speaker 3: I would hammer the Chiefs. I would consider betting the Niners,
Speaker 3: but I'll pass on it and I'll fade the Eagles.
Speaker 3: The Eagles can't be the most high the highest scoring
Speaker 3: team if I think they're losing. That would be a
Speaker 3: hard one.
Speaker 2: All right, Next, all right, crazy odds non quarterback to
Speaker 2: throw a pass in either game plus fifteen hundred, McCaffrey
Speaker 2: first touchdown and forty nine Ers to win plus nine hundred.
Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on that non quarterback to throw. That's
Speaker 3: not to throw a passing touchdown, that's just to throw
Speaker 3: a pass.
Speaker 2: I was thinking that, like, okay, all right, go ahead,
Speaker 2: and then Demond's had to hit any partly plus one
Speaker 2: hundred and fifty thousand.
Speaker 4: All right.
Speaker 3: I like the McCaffrey bet, whether hammer on. I like
Speaker 3: the McCaffrey bet, McCaffrey first touchdown, Niners to win, then nine.
Speaker 3: So there is a great Super Bowl bet that you'll enjoy.
Speaker 3: Demanse which is over under two and a half people
Speaker 3: to throw a pass. So that means non quarterback or back.
Speaker 3: Yeah yeah, so right, But so that can be because
Speaker 3: of a trick play or there's a quarterback injury and
Speaker 3: a guy comes in. But I would hammer McCaffrey. I
Speaker 3: would pass on demands hitting the parlay. I'm not fading it.
Speaker 3: I'm just fasting on it. And I am gonna fade
Speaker 3: the non quarterback throw a pass because this does the
Speaker 3: Chiefs that never have non quarterbacks throw passes never uh.
Speaker 3: And the other teams are gonna ride with their quarterbacks,
Speaker 3: and the Niners Deebo and Ayuk would be the guys
Speaker 3: and they don't throw passes. These aren't the teams to
Speaker 3: do it in the Super Bowl. That's a fun bet
Speaker 3: to make. All right, I've got a single game parlay
Speaker 3: for you. We'll do that as we wrap up the
Speaker 3: Gambling Show. Next, What's record? Welcome back in episode one
Speaker 3: twenty three Conference Championship WEEKND Gambling Show. All right, here's
Speaker 3: the deal. As we are recording this show on Thursday,
Speaker 3: as predicted, the line has moved, so we've put in
Speaker 3: the Chiefs plus one. We did it though, you know,
Speaker 3: in the A bloc all of that. Right now, our
Speaker 3: friends at Fox Bet have the Chiefs at minus one.
Speaker 3: I said that I thought by the time people heard
Speaker 3: this it would be a pick them. I don't think
Speaker 3: they want this game to land on a pick them.
Speaker 3: I think they want it to land on my so
Speaker 3: it might fluctuate a bit, but money coming back in
Speaker 3: on the Chiefs. Here are the bets that I I'll be
Speaker 3: honest with you guys, I don't know what I'm putting
Speaker 3: in because I'm so pot committed on the fifty to one.
Speaker 3: But let's say the Eagles lose. I'm sorry, the Eagles
Speaker 3: win and the fifty to one is dead. I will
Speaker 3: be putting in Kansas City minus six and a half
Speaker 3: at plus two hundred and Kansas City minus nine and
Speaker 3: a half at U plus two ninety. I am putting those.
Speaker 3: I will be putting those in. And I am also
Speaker 3: going to strongly recommend the following. Okay, pa Checko over
Speaker 3: fifty and a half rushing yards, Mahomes over two hundred
Speaker 3: and eighty two and a half UH passing yards. I'm
Speaker 3: trying to build this UH player to score anytime. Where's anytime? Touchdown?
Speaker 2: Score?
Speaker 3: There we go, TD score. Where is my guy? Jeric
Speaker 3: McKinnon to score a touchdown, Kadarius Tony to score a touchdown?
Speaker 3: Those four bets McKinnon to score, Tony to score, Mahomes
Speaker 3: over to eighty two and a half and Pachecko over
Speaker 3: fifty and a half. That right there is twenty seven
Speaker 3: to one. Will they let me parlay that with minus
Speaker 3: six and a half? They will? It only puts it
Speaker 3: at forty one sixty four? Let me see hold on,
Speaker 3: all right, here's what we're putting in. Pachecko over fifty
Speaker 3: and a half, Mahomes over too eighty two and a half,
Speaker 3: McKinnon to score a touchdown, Cadarius Tony to score a touchdown,
Speaker 3: and the Chiefs minus two and a half. It's thirty
Speaker 3: four to one. That is our single game parlay for
Speaker 3: this Chiefs game. We are not putting one in for
Speaker 3: the Niners Eagles game. And then Demons, I know you've
Speaker 3: got one final offer for me, my friend, Yes, last chance.
Speaker 2: To edge as we got Super Bowl matchup Eagles over
Speaker 2: Bengals or Bengals over Eagles at plus five hundred.
Speaker 3: What do you think I'm gonna say to that?
Speaker 2: I mean, you're probably gonna stick to what you've been saying. Yeah,
Speaker 2: it's an offer.
Speaker 3: Yeah I am not and by I am not hedging
Speaker 3: this bet. We've spent an hour today explaining why I'm
Speaker 3: not hedging this bet. Now, what I will tell you
Speaker 3: is this from an emotional just Rex standpoint. It is
Speaker 3: not great for me that the Chiefs game is the
Speaker 3: second game. I would prefer the Chiefs game be the
Speaker 3: first game. But the fact that the Niners could come
Speaker 3: in and then I if the Chiefs lose, I lose
Speaker 3: out on the fifty thousand, I have to deal with
Speaker 3: so much trash talking for the next year. There's nothing
Speaker 3: I could do about it until the Chiefs play the
Speaker 3: Bengals again in the playoffs. Who knows when that would happen.
Speaker 3: All the it'd all take from people with the TV show,
Speaker 3: all of it go. I'm gonna be a mess Sunday. Luckily,
Speaker 3: I think the Chiefs are gonna handle their business quite well.
Speaker 3: Kansas City is gonna win, the Niners are gonna win,
Speaker 3: and that Niners Chiefs Super Bowl EXACTA is going to
Speaker 3: be an all time wager that we're speaking into existence.
Speaker 3: That's what's gonna happen.
Speaker 2: So I got another offer. Yeah, Black and Miles consumed
Speaker 2: on Sunday over under one and a half.
Speaker 3: Oh, I never it'll be under, but it'll be exactly one.
Speaker 3: And it will either be stressed out and upset or
Speaker 3: celebratory on IG Live should be fun. Talk to you
Speaker 3: guys on Monday. Enjoy Championship weekend.