WEBVTT - The 2024 ETF Halftime Report 0:00:06.000 --> 0:00:06.760 Walcaner Schillions. 0:00:06.760 --> 0:00:12.919 I'm Joe Webber and I'm Eric Belchunas. 0:00:11.000 --> 0:00:13.080 Eric, it's that time of year, not that I've been 0:00:13.080 --> 0:00:14.840 counting or anything, but we are halfway. 0:00:14.960 --> 0:00:16.720 It's water park season, Joel. 0:00:16.400 --> 0:00:19.279 It's these communities come in. 0:00:19.320 --> 0:00:21.919 It's summer splash plex in Mount Laurel shout out. 0:00:22.040 --> 0:00:26.000 That also means that we have a pretty good sample 0:00:26.079 --> 0:00:29.200 size that we can take stock of twenty twenty four 0:00:29.360 --> 0:00:31.760 and see what's been happening in the ETF industry. 0:00:31.880 --> 0:00:34.919 Isn't it crazy? It's like it's basically the year's basically 0:00:34.920 --> 0:00:35.360 half over. 0:00:35.440 --> 0:00:36.760 I mean, this is it's all downhill. 0:00:36.960 --> 0:00:38.120 Time flies so fast. 0:00:38.720 --> 0:00:41.000 You reach the top and now it's all downhill it. 0:00:40.880 --> 0:00:43.720 Is, and we get focused on a couple of things. 0:00:43.720 --> 0:00:45.280 All of a sudden you look up and you're like, okay, 0:00:45.280 --> 0:00:46.440 what what actually happens? 0:00:46.520 --> 0:00:48.519 So the market's been up, that's been one. 0:00:48.400 --> 0:00:51.560 Yeah, honestly, that's made time go faster because it's not different. 0:00:51.600 --> 0:00:53.040 It's like the same old kind. 0:00:52.840 --> 0:00:54.800 Of interest rates didn't come down. 0:00:56.120 --> 0:00:57.480 Yeah, what did anything happen? 0:00:57.560 --> 0:00:59.560 No, it's just like here we are a couple of 0:00:59.560 --> 0:01:00.000 months later. 0:01:00.720 --> 0:01:03.960 Besides the viccornyts I've been I've been living on Planet 0:01:03.960 --> 0:01:05.080 Crypto for like the last. 0:01:05.080 --> 0:01:07.800 Okay, so we've done this before. But halftime reports we 0:01:07.880 --> 0:01:11.800 assess some stuff that's gone down, maybe a little sneak 0:01:11.840 --> 0:01:14.640 peak of a few things to come take stock of everything. 0:01:15.560 --> 0:01:16.840 We've got some guests we do. 0:01:16.959 --> 0:01:19.520 We've got two of my favorite people from Vitafi, Todd 0:01:19.600 --> 0:01:22.520 Rosenbluth and Cynthia Murphy, both of whom I would consider 0:01:22.560 --> 0:01:25.600 og ETF analysts. They both at some point worked at 0:01:25.600 --> 0:01:28.520 ETF dot com, which was formerly Index Universe, and that 0:01:28.680 --> 0:01:31.119 to me was where I got inspired to even get 0:01:31.120 --> 0:01:33.039 in the industry. So it's always nice to have them on. 0:01:33.480 --> 0:01:39.679 Todd regular Cynthia's first time on the podcast, this time 0:01:39.720 --> 0:01:45.920 on Trillions Halftime Report. Todd, Cynthia, wocome to Trillions. 0:01:45.680 --> 0:01:46.839 Thanks for having us on the show. 0:01:47.080 --> 0:01:48.240 I'm so glad to be back. 0:01:48.520 --> 0:01:53.240 Before we talk about the play of the first half, 0:01:53.920 --> 0:01:55.680 do you want to set the scene here a little bit. 0:01:55.680 --> 0:01:58.040 I don't know Cynthia yet. Yeah, you don't know Todd 0:01:58.040 --> 0:01:58.880 from previous recording. 0:01:59.160 --> 0:02:01.520 You know Todd very well, but you kind of know Cynthia. 0:02:01.560 --> 0:02:04.080 I bring her up once every six months when I 0:02:04.080 --> 0:02:06.200 bring up the story of how when there was the 0:02:06.200 --> 0:02:10.800 Pundit's panel competition. I was robbed because I did uranium, 0:02:10.800 --> 0:02:13.560 which is now like a jillion percent since then, and 0:02:13.639 --> 0:02:15.320 the winner was Cynthia Murphy. 0:02:15.440 --> 0:02:17.680 So I know you by your legend. 0:02:17.840 --> 0:02:19.680 Yes, you know I bring every six months. 0:02:20.160 --> 0:02:21.520 What was the one that you beat him with? 0:02:22.280 --> 0:02:24.639 TDV Tech Dividends front pro Share. 0:02:24.800 --> 0:02:27.000 Yeah, now you know, I might have won the long 0:02:27.040 --> 0:02:27.920 game on that one. 0:02:28.320 --> 0:02:31.080 I'll just say that everyone who lost that day, because 0:02:31.120 --> 0:02:33.280 I was the newbie doing for the first time, has 0:02:33.320 --> 0:02:35.320 been saying that they were robbed. It's kind of a 0:02:35.320 --> 0:02:36.280 cliche at this point. 0:02:36.400 --> 0:02:36.600 Yeah. 0:02:36.760 --> 0:02:39.600 Look, I'm just in favor of Eric getting beat so 0:02:39.680 --> 0:02:41.079 you know whatever, whatever. 0:02:41.240 --> 0:02:43.200 She crushed it, she crushed it that day though. 0:02:43.800 --> 0:02:47.440 I think everyone tried too hard that day and Cynthia 0:02:47.560 --> 0:02:49.959 just was so organic and natural and it just played 0:02:49.960 --> 0:02:53.400 well because I didn't come in second either, which is 0:02:53.440 --> 0:02:55.280 so it's worse than I even say. 0:02:55.639 --> 0:02:57.080 Okay, so Eric, how are we going to do this? 0:02:57.280 --> 0:02:58.960 Evaluate the first half of play. 0:02:59.160 --> 0:03:01.640 Let's start with as classes roll, so you look at 0:03:01.680 --> 0:03:04.239 something like equities. They took in two hundred and eleven billion. 0:03:05.000 --> 0:03:08.160 So while it's down from like the second half of 0:03:08.200 --> 0:03:11.680 twenty twenty three, and it has peaked it. It once 0:03:11.720 --> 0:03:15.200 took in three hundred and fifty billion, so that's the record. 0:03:15.600 --> 0:03:17.480 But I would say two hundred and eleven is probably 0:03:17.480 --> 0:03:20.720 like the fourth best half on record. 0:03:20.880 --> 0:03:22.840 Wait, it was three fifty and a half or a 0:03:22.840 --> 0:03:23.320 full year. 0:03:24.080 --> 0:03:26.800 That's for a half a year, Okay, Yeah, So if 0:03:26.840 --> 0:03:28.880 you look at all halves, if you compare this half 0:03:29.240 --> 0:03:32.200 to every half in existence, this would be the one, 0:03:32.280 --> 0:03:33.840 two three fourth best half ever. 0:03:34.200 --> 0:03:34.519 Believe. 0:03:34.680 --> 0:03:37.240 I mean, we've seen in the time in the recent 0:03:37.360 --> 0:03:41.240 past where the equity market climbed higher and ETF investors 0:03:41.240 --> 0:03:44.040 were not participating. After the strong year we had in 0:03:44.080 --> 0:03:47.160 twenty twenty three, I think it's really encouraging to see 0:03:47.800 --> 0:03:51.040 money continue to go into equity ETFs, and in particular 0:03:51.200 --> 0:03:55.200 some of the broad acid allocation oriented products that investors' 0:03:55.240 --> 0:03:59.080 advisors keep embracing, the ETF rapper for the five hundred, 0:03:59.320 --> 0:04:01.560 for the Nasdaq one hundred, and so forth. 0:04:01.920 --> 0:04:04.080 This is a good point you're bringing up, actually, because 0:04:04.480 --> 0:04:07.840 last year this time we called the FOMO drought, stocks 0:04:07.840 --> 0:04:10.040 were up at the flows weren't there. So this time 0:04:10.120 --> 0:04:12.440 last year equities took an one hundred and ten billion, 0:04:12.600 --> 0:04:15.440 So one hundred billion more this year. Clearly investors are 0:04:15.440 --> 0:04:17.279 getting in. You know why there was a FOMO drought 0:04:17.279 --> 0:04:20.240 though money market funds were yielding five percent. Seems like 0:04:20.279 --> 0:04:22.640 people are like, well, I'd rather have fifteen twenty percent 0:04:22.720 --> 0:04:25.200 equity returns than five percent in money market. So that 0:04:25.240 --> 0:04:27.280 seems to be the difference this year. 0:04:27.800 --> 0:04:30.800 Yeah, but isn't within that equity sleeve. Isn't a lot 0:04:30.800 --> 0:04:33.960 of it going to international equity, which I think it's 0:04:34.279 --> 0:04:37.479 a little actually speaks more about risk off than risk on. 0:04:37.839 --> 0:04:40.279 It's that search for value, which I think has been interesting. 0:04:40.320 --> 0:04:43.240 A lot of money has gone for We always talk 0:04:43.279 --> 0:04:46.800 about every year being the year of diversification into international, 0:04:46.839 --> 0:04:48.160 and we are actually seeing that. 0:04:48.200 --> 0:04:53.160 This year international did take in its fair share. But 0:04:53.400 --> 0:04:57.440 US still rules for sure, but in portion a lot 0:04:57.440 --> 0:05:00.560 of countries and regions are having all time highs. We 0:05:00.600 --> 0:05:04.200 don't it doesn't break through in the US media because 0:05:04.560 --> 0:05:07.719 whatever you're doing in another country out there, the QUES 0:05:07.800 --> 0:05:08.359 is beating you. 0:05:09.279 --> 0:05:11.640 It's like well and money and yeah, and money's going 0:05:11.680 --> 0:05:15.359 into the Q the QS and QQQM in particular. 0:05:15.360 --> 0:05:17.160 I know we're gonna get to the bottom up. 0:05:17.600 --> 0:05:20.360 We on our team sometimes we like how much sell 0:05:20.440 --> 0:05:24.960 side research could be summed up with by QQQ like it. Honestly, 0:05:25.080 --> 0:05:28.560 it's it's really much easier than people make it out 0:05:28.600 --> 0:05:32.040 to be. I mean, just this index is just lethal. 0:05:32.480 --> 0:05:35.640 I mean, what's the point of investing anywhere else? Troll? 0:05:35.800 --> 0:05:40.239 Well, you could do mag right, just the magnificent seven. 0:05:40.279 --> 0:05:41.000 How does that compare? 0:05:41.120 --> 0:05:43.040 That is interesting? By the way, are you surprised by 0:05:43.040 --> 0:05:45.920 this that the ques are mostly Magnificent seven stocks? I 0:05:45.920 --> 0:05:48.240 believe it's like fifty percent of the rest. But the 0:05:48.320 --> 0:05:50.040 round hills, like, oh, why don't we just come out 0:05:50.040 --> 0:05:53.240 with a magnificent seven cret cream of the crop and 0:05:53.279 --> 0:05:55.159 it's got like a ton of money. Yeah, it just 0:05:55.160 --> 0:05:58.440 seems like it's like, really, it was that simple. 0:05:58.480 --> 0:06:02.560 You focus on those seven companies, eight stocks that's performed well, 0:06:02.600 --> 0:06:05.120 even if a couple of them have dropped off. But yeah, 0:06:05.680 --> 0:06:09.599 we're just excited to see the equity ETF adoption, both 0:06:09.720 --> 0:06:13.440 actively managed equity ETFs which are quite strong, and even 0:06:13.480 --> 0:06:15.560 the broad index space products as well. 0:06:15.600 --> 0:06:18.240 Okay, what about fixed income because it's always been like, 0:06:18.560 --> 0:06:21.440 this is always the year of the fixed income ETF. 0:06:23.160 --> 0:06:25.440 It's you know, it's always the year of something, isn't it. 0:06:25.520 --> 0:06:28.479 I mean, yeah, well, you know, you're an editorial, you 0:06:28.520 --> 0:06:29.279 get everything like you. 0:06:29.360 --> 0:06:31.719 Got three years running of like this is the year. 0:06:31.880 --> 0:06:34.000 We doing out look for next year. I mean, anyway, 0:06:34.040 --> 0:06:37.000 it's getting rair until in July. Okay, so let's look 0:06:37.040 --> 0:06:40.159 at fixed income eighty nine billion. That would be about 0:06:40.160 --> 0:06:43.760 the sixth best half ever. But I will say if 0:06:43.800 --> 0:06:46.040 you look at a chart of fixed income flows, they 0:06:46.120 --> 0:06:49.760 used to average forty thirty five billion a year a 0:06:49.800 --> 0:06:53.040 half a year. Sorry, Now they're averaging one hundred you know, 0:06:53.400 --> 0:06:56.040 ninety to one hundred and ten billion, So they around 0:06:56.040 --> 0:06:58.680 twenty twenty around the pandemic, they just kind of went 0:06:58.680 --> 0:07:01.080 into this other gear and they've lived up there. 0:07:01.120 --> 0:07:01.320 Now. 0:07:01.560 --> 0:07:01.760 Yeah. 0:07:01.800 --> 0:07:04.880 I mean, well, we saw adoption of fixed income ETFs 0:07:04.960 --> 0:07:08.200 as the go to vehicle for institutional investors. 0:07:08.080 --> 0:07:09.320 Who favored the liquidity. 0:07:09.520 --> 0:07:11.440 But you got to even put this year in perspective 0:07:11.440 --> 0:07:16.480 because coming in we had the overall industry expected multiple 0:07:16.640 --> 0:07:19.480 rate cuts. We haven't had any yet as the time 0:07:19.480 --> 0:07:22.560 we're recording this, and probably going to have one maybe 0:07:22.600 --> 0:07:25.400 by the end of the year. That's just a different environment. 0:07:25.440 --> 0:07:29.000 But it just shows that investors have rotated, they've been 0:07:29.080 --> 0:07:32.720 comfortable taking on interest rate risk or taking it off 0:07:32.720 --> 0:07:35.280 but using the ETFs as the vehicle of choice. 0:07:35.560 --> 0:07:37.880 Yeah, I would just sad. Just this morning, actually, I 0:07:37.920 --> 0:07:41.880 was talking to the guy who does our vetafy pro 0:07:42.240 --> 0:07:45.840 data analytics tool and codes all that stuff and he 0:07:45.960 --> 0:07:48.880 runs all the portfolios, and he was telling me, like, 0:07:49.040 --> 0:07:53.040 all the behavioral data shows that by far people are 0:07:53.040 --> 0:07:55.360 playing around and trying to figure out how to build 0:07:55.520 --> 0:07:59.560 equities even alternatives, and that fixed income is still that 0:07:59.640 --> 0:08:03.080 after thought. Advisors are still like not quite sure what 0:08:03.120 --> 0:08:05.400 to do about it. So I think there may be 0:08:05.480 --> 0:08:08.280 still be like you know, early innings just going for 0:08:08.360 --> 0:08:11.520 easy button choices because they're not quite sure how to 0:08:11.520 --> 0:08:12.480 position at this point. 0:08:12.520 --> 0:08:13.720 I love the easy button Eric. 0:08:13.960 --> 0:08:15.880 I know he loves that, but by the way, he 0:08:15.920 --> 0:08:18.280 thinks there should be an ETF, which makes it's a 0:08:18.320 --> 0:08:21.280 logical thought where it's just everything in the entire world 0:08:21.880 --> 0:08:24.840 in one ETF. You can just hit by and you. 0:08:24.800 --> 0:08:26.720 Own it easy, but take her easy. 0:08:26.880 --> 0:08:30.240 The problem is advisors want to be the deciders. It's 0:08:30.240 --> 0:08:31.960 like you're putting advisors out of busess with that roll. 0:08:32.000 --> 0:08:33.920 That's but it's a great self directed tool. 0:08:34.000 --> 0:08:37.240 Yeah, so one thing about fixed income that's interesting free 0:08:37.320 --> 0:08:41.120 By the way, thanks for listening, we can create the 0:08:41.200 --> 0:08:48.040 ind they have fixed income active managers are still in demand, 0:08:48.160 --> 0:08:52.080 and so yes, there's some active fixed income ETFs, but 0:08:52.160 --> 0:08:55.280 the active fixed income mutual funds have taken in money 0:08:55.360 --> 0:08:58.600 so like bond managers. I think it's because it's like 0:08:58.840 --> 0:09:02.120 there's so many bonds. The element of time is like 0:09:02.200 --> 0:09:04.200 makes it more like chess than checkers. And I think 0:09:04.240 --> 0:09:06.880 advisors still are willing to give money to a bond 0:09:06.880 --> 0:09:09.439 manager and that will always I think, put somewhat of 0:09:09.440 --> 0:09:11.520 a lid on fixed income relative to equities in the 0:09:11.520 --> 0:09:12.240 ETF wrapper. 0:09:12.440 --> 0:09:14.960 Yeah, but we are seeing the products that people have 0:09:15.000 --> 0:09:16.920 gone to and the managers that they've gone to for 0:09:17.040 --> 0:09:20.599 years in the mutual fun world are now available and 0:09:20.720 --> 0:09:24.160 offering products in the ETF world. Capital Group has had 0:09:24.200 --> 0:09:27.480 a lot of success with active fixed income ETFs. 0:09:27.520 --> 0:09:29.120 PIMPO has been there the longest. 0:09:29.440 --> 0:09:31.720 Blackrock, I know we're going to talk about individual products, 0:09:31.760 --> 0:09:35.280 but Blackrock has had success with the bink ETF that's 0:09:35.400 --> 0:09:37.920 run by Rick Reader not even or just past the 0:09:38.000 --> 0:09:40.480 year and is crushing it in terms of asset gathering. 0:09:40.640 --> 0:09:43.720 We are seeing more and more active management within the 0:09:43.880 --> 0:09:44.840 fixed income space. 0:09:45.760 --> 0:09:48.199 Yeah, no, it's got everything and corporate did the best 0:09:48.200 --> 0:09:51.480 of every sector in bonds this year, and treasuries down 0:09:51.520 --> 0:09:54.320 a little bit from last year. They switched places this 0:09:54.440 --> 0:09:57.679 year as again investors taking on more risk. And then 0:09:57.960 --> 0:09:59.520 you know what did really well that was kind of 0:09:59.520 --> 0:10:04.360 introduced for recently is colo ETFs collateralized loan obligations, which 0:10:04.600 --> 0:10:06.520 everybody kind of gets memories of two thousand and eight. 0:10:06.520 --> 0:10:08.640 But I've talked to some of these people. They came 0:10:08.679 --> 0:10:11.120 on ETF. It's not as bad as it's not as 0:10:11.200 --> 0:10:13.840 risky as you think that JAW is now ten billion 0:10:13.880 --> 0:10:18.120 dollars this the janis. Yeah, that crazy that we got 0:10:18.160 --> 0:10:19.800 to have a segment called they grow Up So Fast. 0:10:20.160 --> 0:10:21.600 JAW would be a great candidate. 0:10:22.559 --> 0:10:25.840 Yeah, that's Janis Henderson putting their best in the ETF 0:10:25.880 --> 0:10:29.680 structure and just tremendous demand. It just shows that the 0:10:29.720 --> 0:10:33.440 ETF rapper works for many investment styles well. 0:10:33.480 --> 0:10:35.640 And just to go back to the memory of the 0:10:35.679 --> 0:10:38.160 CLOS is, we hope they don't grow up too fast. 0:10:38.200 --> 0:10:40.480 We hope we know what we're doing this time around, right. 0:10:40.360 --> 0:10:42.640 Fair point, Yeah, you don't want clos to grow up 0:10:42.640 --> 0:10:43.160 too fast? 0:10:43.679 --> 0:10:43.920 Right? 0:10:44.480 --> 0:10:48.240 Okay, I want to talk about another asset class. And 0:10:48.320 --> 0:10:52.160 we've gone through the usual ones. What about alternatives? 0:10:52.559 --> 0:10:55.400 Yeah, so alternative is a thirty five billion. That would 0:10:55.400 --> 0:10:58.680 be the biggest year everag role by like fivefold. But 0:10:58.760 --> 0:11:01.960 the thing is we put in the bitcoin ETFs into alternative, 0:11:02.400 --> 0:11:03.880 so that's why that number is so big. If we 0:11:03.920 --> 0:11:06.280 carve that out, alternative would be having an average year. 0:11:07.080 --> 0:11:12.320 But the bitcoin ETFs all told are you know, fifteen 0:11:12.400 --> 0:11:15.559 billions about between all the new ones that came out 0:11:15.640 --> 0:11:17.520 and then even ibit has taken in a little bit, 0:11:17.600 --> 0:11:20.719 So that is a tremendous start. We've talked about on 0:11:20.760 --> 0:11:24.840 the show many times. But alternative overall is just pretty 0:11:24.840 --> 0:11:27.680 small like hedge fund style ETFs, so that number is 0:11:27.679 --> 0:11:31.960 a little skewed. But also interesting is commodities outflows this year, 0:11:32.559 --> 0:11:36.439 so how much five billion dollars? So that's also interesting 0:11:36.520 --> 0:11:39.040 is that the bitcoin ETFs cleaned up gold seeing outflows 0:11:39.040 --> 0:11:41.040 even though that the price is up. That was an 0:11:41.080 --> 0:11:42.719 interesting combo there with the. 0:11:42.720 --> 0:11:44.960 Cashion on the real gold and put it in the 0:11:45.040 --> 0:11:45.679 digital gold. 0:11:46.160 --> 0:11:48.679 It seems like that's what people did, but you know, 0:11:48.760 --> 0:11:50.800 we don't can't ever tell what exactly what they're doing, 0:11:50.800 --> 0:11:52.040 but that seems like what happened. 0:11:51.840 --> 0:11:54.439 Yeah, but we're hearing it vetify from advisors that are 0:11:54.800 --> 0:11:58.080 now heading into the middle of the year. They're looking 0:11:58.160 --> 0:12:02.640 towards alternative investments. They're not only looking to crypto, they're 0:12:02.679 --> 0:12:06.000 looking to gold. We had verified would consider covered call 0:12:06.080 --> 0:12:09.560 ETFs as perhaps within the alternative space that are options 0:12:09.600 --> 0:12:15.160 based strategies from NEOs and JP Morgan among others. We're 0:12:15.200 --> 0:12:19.079 seeing advisors investors looking for something else besides stock and 0:12:19.160 --> 0:12:21.080 bond exposure using ETFs. 0:12:21.800 --> 0:12:25.640 Yeah, and I think twenty twenty two, which was the 0:12:25.720 --> 0:12:29.559 really bad year, the sixty and the forty both went down, 0:12:30.000 --> 0:12:32.440 and since that moment, people have said, Okay, I'm open 0:12:32.440 --> 0:12:36.000 to something else that can hedge the sixty forty. So 0:12:36.040 --> 0:12:38.520 I think that's where Active actually comes into play. Active, 0:12:38.559 --> 0:12:41.280 by the way, having another big year. I think they've 0:12:41.280 --> 0:12:43.239 taken in like twenty to thirty percent of the flows. 0:12:43.000 --> 0:12:47.360 Again, and not just one category. We've seen it for categories. 0:12:47.640 --> 0:12:49.280 We've seen it for equity, and we've seen it for 0:12:49.320 --> 0:12:51.320 fixed income, which is just encourage. 0:12:51.080 --> 0:12:52.800 What is it at this point? What's driving that? Do 0:12:52.800 --> 0:12:53.280 you think? Todd? 0:12:53.880 --> 0:12:56.920 I think the fact that we have supply is helping 0:12:57.240 --> 0:12:59.880 that we have some of these leading asset managers Hero 0:13:00.080 --> 0:13:04.240 Price and Fidelity Capital Group that I mentioned earlier. That's 0:13:04.280 --> 0:13:07.240 playing a role. But given the market volatility, and certainly 0:13:07.240 --> 0:13:10.440 in fixed income where I certainly don't know the next 0:13:10.480 --> 0:13:12.840 move of the FED, the average investor may not know that. 0:13:12.920 --> 0:13:17.760 Either they're comfortable turning to active management to get that expertise, 0:13:17.800 --> 0:13:21.400 but they're also coming to active management for stock specific 0:13:21.720 --> 0:13:23.920 ideas as well. We've seen some success and I know 0:13:23.960 --> 0:13:25.480 when we get to the leader board we're going to 0:13:25.480 --> 0:13:26.800 see some active products there. 0:13:27.280 --> 0:13:29.840 Yeah, but I do think the branding power that has 0:13:29.880 --> 0:13:32.880 stepped into the space has made a difference. Because if 0:13:32.880 --> 0:13:34.280 you have to sit in front of a client and 0:13:34.360 --> 0:13:36.719 explain why did you pick this active manager I never 0:13:36.760 --> 0:13:40.599 heard of and it's not working, it's a really tough conversation. 0:13:40.840 --> 0:13:41.840 The star power helps. 0:13:41.840 --> 0:13:43.760 When you have that star power really helps. 0:13:44.200 --> 0:13:46.280 And also we dug into the numbers of active it's 0:13:46.320 --> 0:13:49.000 a little more nuanced than just oh, the return of 0:13:49.000 --> 0:13:51.200 the stock picker. A lot of the active is the 0:13:51.240 --> 0:13:54.200 cover qull atfs, which you could argue is people aren't 0:13:54.200 --> 0:13:56.520 buying for the manager, they're buying for the actual income. 0:13:57.240 --> 0:13:59.880 Then there's a chunk of active into like DFA, but 0:14:00.040 --> 0:14:02.440 it's equal to the amount coming out of its mutual funds, 0:14:02.600 --> 0:14:05.200 so there might be some just transfer. 0:14:05.080 --> 0:14:05.440 Some of that. 0:14:05.800 --> 0:14:09.880 But again fidality bondecounts I had already. Bond eef has 0:14:09.920 --> 0:14:11.160 been popular this year. 0:14:11.280 --> 0:14:13.520 The other thing is the fees finally got low inactive, 0:14:13.520 --> 0:14:15.839 they finally got below like the twenty basis point all 0:14:15.840 --> 0:14:19.040 important line and then and the other ones are below forty. 0:14:19.360 --> 0:14:21.320 As long as you're below forty and you're active, you 0:14:21.360 --> 0:14:23.600 have a fighting chance for organic growth in my opinion. 0:14:23.600 --> 0:14:26.360 Which by the way, just back to bitcoin, where did 0:14:26.360 --> 0:14:28.200 they come out at and where did they end up at? 0:14:28.280 --> 0:14:29.720 From a few standpoint, Well. 0:14:29.600 --> 0:14:32.880 I remember the arc was first I think there was 0:14:32.920 --> 0:14:36.480 seventy five in a prospectus, and then Fidelite came in 0:14:36.600 --> 0:14:39.760 thirty nine. Those are the first two and then boom. 0:14:39.800 --> 0:14:42.400 There was like at twenty four period where Invesco was like, Okay, 0:14:42.400 --> 0:14:44.680 we're twenty five, but we have a waiver, and then 0:14:44.800 --> 0:14:48.120 BlackRock's like, oh, we're twenty five or something like that. 0:14:48.400 --> 0:14:50.960 Once Blackrock went in twenty five, I think they went in. 0:14:51.440 --> 0:14:53.960 Everybody had to get real close to that because you 0:14:54.040 --> 0:14:56.480 can't be too farway from Blackrock if someone won't buy 0:14:56.480 --> 0:15:00.000 your stuff, so then Blackrock I think then in introduce 0:15:00.080 --> 0:15:03.440 the waiver after the dust subtle droll. All of them 0:15:03.480 --> 0:15:05.920 were between twenty and thirty basis points. I think Franklin 0:15:05.960 --> 0:15:08.880 actually went one lower to nineteen. And that's where we're at, 0:15:08.880 --> 0:15:11.560 which I'm surprised to get. Well, not yet right now, 0:15:11.560 --> 0:15:14.680 there's still the zero over You're right, there's waivers and stuff, 0:15:14.720 --> 0:15:16.680 but I don't like to count the waiver too much 0:15:16.920 --> 0:15:20.160 because it runs out, but the fee behind it is 0:15:20.160 --> 0:15:22.560 still cheap, because sometimes there's waivers and the fee is 0:15:22.720 --> 0:15:25.200 expensive behind it, but in this case, the fee behind 0:15:25.240 --> 0:15:28.120 it isn't that bad either, which again speaks to the 0:15:28.200 --> 0:15:31.480 terrodome aspect of the US market, where in other countries 0:15:31.520 --> 0:15:34.400 and other vehicles, these bitcoin funds are over one percent, 0:15:35.280 --> 0:15:37.440 so this is really monumentally cheap. 0:15:37.520 --> 0:15:39.960 Yeah, but I'm curious to see how they unwind all 0:15:39.960 --> 0:15:43.160 the waivers. I know they're specific, you know, dead end 0:15:43.280 --> 0:15:46.760 dates on prospectuses and stuff. But you know, we've seen 0:15:46.760 --> 0:15:50.120 that it's really hard to go from zero up, so 0:15:50.520 --> 0:15:53.320 you end up getting a bunch of extensions and you know, 0:15:53.440 --> 0:15:56.240 waiver to infinity. So I'm curious to see when when 0:15:56.280 --> 0:15:58.760 the unwinding comes, where the reaction is. 0:15:58.760 --> 0:16:09.520 The revenge of total Yeah, alright, Act two. 0:16:10.360 --> 0:16:13.400 Okay, so we're gonna go tickers. So is the leaderboard 0:16:14.280 --> 0:16:17.520 top five inflows of the year number one? You can 0:16:17.560 --> 0:16:22.240 guess it VU, yes, Well, guess the number twenty five bill? Nope? 0:16:22.480 --> 0:16:28.120 Higher forty yes? Uh? Forty billion is ridiculous. Okay, just 0:16:28.160 --> 0:16:30.360 so you know, the record for a calendar year is 0:16:30.360 --> 0:16:33.880 fifty So VU is already christion it. Yeah, I mean, 0:16:34.480 --> 0:16:37.000 what a monster this thing is. The next one is 0:16:37.040 --> 0:16:37.680 sixteen billion. 0:16:37.760 --> 0:16:41.720 Joel, who's that hold on? Cynthia is gonna guess IVV? 0:16:42.360 --> 0:16:44.600 Yes, good job, See told. 0:16:44.520 --> 0:16:47.840 You it wasn't that hard. It's like the other It is. 0:16:47.960 --> 0:16:48.880 Very very well. 0:16:49.360 --> 0:16:51.680 It's kind of a tie. There's a tie for second. 0:16:51.800 --> 0:16:53.520 IVV is one another one. 0:16:53.840 --> 0:16:54.840 It was the other one, Todd. 0:16:54.880 --> 0:16:56.440 It's I BIT right, that's right. 0:16:56.520 --> 0:16:59.040 So so black Rock has the second and the third 0:16:59.240 --> 0:16:59.720 largest EV. 0:17:00.080 --> 0:17:03.560 It's the figure, the actual figure sixteen point nine, sixteen 0:17:03.600 --> 0:17:06.879 point six. So IVV, I B I T But that 0:17:06.960 --> 0:17:10.080 tells you vou is on another planet. Then you have 0:17:10.160 --> 0:17:13.080 IVV and I BIT and then four and five you 0:17:13.119 --> 0:17:16.639 guys can guess that that's a tougher one. We already 0:17:16.680 --> 0:17:17.680 mentioned on this program. 0:17:17.680 --> 0:17:19.280 Just I'm putting my money on Cynthia again. 0:17:19.840 --> 0:17:22.760 Oh pressure, the ticker was already said on Yes. 0:17:23.080 --> 0:17:26.000 How much did the ques take in twelve. 0:17:25.760 --> 0:17:28.680 Point nine billions? So we'll run up to thirteen and 0:17:28.800 --> 0:17:31.719 number five will run up to thirteen and you can 0:17:31.760 --> 0:17:34.359 get this. Come on, I would go with fidelities. No, 0:17:35.160 --> 0:17:38.960 that's seven, okay, this this is always in the top five. 0:17:39.000 --> 0:17:40.919 It's always lingering. It's never one or two, but it's 0:17:40.920 --> 0:17:44.360 always like five, four through six. This is a stud ETF. 0:17:44.359 --> 0:17:47.920 It just slowly hoovers up money. This isoring. This is 0:17:48.000 --> 0:17:52.919 Vanguard Total Stock Market. That's it VTI. So that's your 0:17:52.920 --> 0:17:53.440 top five. 0:17:53.840 --> 0:17:56.280 You don't like it when I bring the boring ETFs 0:17:56.359 --> 0:17:57.200 to the top. 0:17:57.520 --> 0:17:59.520 The problem is no fixed income in there. 0:17:59.680 --> 0:18:02.200 No six is agg but you're right. The top five 0:18:02.320 --> 0:18:05.119 is all stocks and bitcoin, which is in my opinion, 0:18:05.240 --> 0:18:09.560 risk gone. But yeah, that's I'm not too surprised by this. 0:18:09.640 --> 0:18:11.680 I think I bit taking in sixteen point six billion 0:18:11.680 --> 0:18:13.640 as a surprise to anybody. That's a ton of money 0:18:13.680 --> 0:18:16.359 for a new ETF. And the queues obviously going strong, 0:18:16.359 --> 0:18:18.800 even though there's a cheaper option with QQQM, which is twelve. 0:18:18.960 --> 0:18:22.560 Okay, do you think ibit can maintain this pace? 0:18:23.359 --> 0:18:26.560 No, James and I have a calculation that the bitcoiny 0:18:26.560 --> 0:18:29.440 tips will net ten to fifteen billion in one year. 0:18:29.920 --> 0:18:32.280 They're already right about fifteen billion, so they've already gotten 0:18:32.280 --> 0:18:35.520 to our ceiling. But remember, things can happen. Bitcoin could 0:18:35.520 --> 0:18:38.359 have you know, it's very volatile. But I we're probably 0:18:38.359 --> 0:18:41.359 going to be proven wrong. But let me give you 0:18:41.400 --> 0:18:43.919 this stat. We just ran I bit touched twenty billion 0:18:44.200 --> 0:18:47.000 in assets the other day barely. It's down in nineteen 0:18:47.040 --> 0:18:49.800