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Speaker 1: Walcaner Schillions.

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Speaker 2: I'm Joe Webber and I'm Eric Belchunas.

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Speaker 3: Eric, it's that time of year, not that I've been

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Speaker 3: counting or anything, but we are halfway.

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Speaker 2: It's water park season, Joel.

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Speaker 1: It's these communities come in.

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Speaker 2: It's summer splash plex in Mount Laurel shout out.

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Speaker 3: That also means that we have a pretty good sample

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Speaker 3: size that we can take stock of twenty twenty four

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Speaker 3: and see what's been happening in the ETF industry.

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Speaker 2: Isn't it crazy? It's like it's basically the year's basically

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Speaker 2: half over.

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Speaker 1: I mean, this is it's all downhill.

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Speaker 2: Time flies so fast.

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Speaker 1: You reach the top and now it's all downhill it.

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Speaker 2: Is, and we get focused on a couple of things.

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Speaker 2: All of a sudden you look up and you're like, okay,

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Speaker 2: what what actually happens?

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Speaker 1: So the market's been up, that's been one.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, honestly, that's made time go faster because it's not different.

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Speaker 2: It's like the same old kind.

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Speaker 1: Of interest rates didn't come down.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, what did anything happen?

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Speaker 1: No, it's just like here we are a couple of

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Speaker 1: months later.

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Speaker 2: Besides the viccornyts I've been I've been living on Planet

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Speaker 2: Crypto for like the last.

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Speaker 3: Okay, so we've done this before. But halftime reports we

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Speaker 3: assess some stuff that's gone down, maybe a little sneak

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Speaker 3: peak of a few things to come take stock of everything.

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Speaker 1: We've got some guests we do.

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Speaker 2: We've got two of my favorite people from Vitafi, Todd

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Speaker 2: Rosenbluth and Cynthia Murphy, both of whom I would consider

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Speaker 2: og ETF analysts. They both at some point worked at

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Speaker 2: ETF dot com, which was formerly Index Universe, and that

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Speaker 2: to me was where I got inspired to even get

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Speaker 2: in the industry. So it's always nice to have them on.

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Speaker 3: Todd regular Cynthia's first time on the podcast, this time

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Speaker 3: on Trillions Halftime Report. Todd, Cynthia, wocome to Trillions.

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Speaker 4: Thanks for having us on the show.

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Speaker 5: I'm so glad to be back.

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Speaker 3: Before we talk about the play of the first half,

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Speaker 3: do you want to set the scene here a little bit.

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Speaker 1: I don't know Cynthia yet. Yeah, you don't know Todd

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Speaker 1: from previous recording.

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Speaker 2: You know Todd very well, but you kind of know Cynthia.

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Speaker 2: I bring her up once every six months when I

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Speaker 2: bring up the story of how when there was the

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Speaker 2: Pundit's panel competition. I was robbed because I did uranium,

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Speaker 2: which is now like a jillion percent since then, and

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Speaker 2: the winner was Cynthia Murphy.

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Speaker 1: So I know you by your legend.

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Speaker 2: Yes, you know I bring every six months.

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Speaker 1: What was the one that you beat him with?

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Speaker 4: TDV Tech Dividends front pro Share.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, now you know, I might have won the long

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Speaker 1: game on that one.

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Speaker 4: I'll just say that everyone who lost that day, because

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Speaker 4: I was the newbie doing for the first time, has

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Speaker 4: been saying that they were robbed. It's kind of a

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Speaker 4: cliche at this point.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Look, I'm just in favor of Eric getting beat so

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Speaker 3: you know whatever, whatever.

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Speaker 5: She crushed it, she crushed it that day though.

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Speaker 2: I think everyone tried too hard that day and Cynthia

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Speaker 2: just was so organic and natural and it just played

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Speaker 2: well because I didn't come in second either, which is

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Speaker 2: so it's worse than I even say.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so Eric, how are we going to do this?

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Speaker 1: Evaluate the first half of play.

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Speaker 2: Let's start with as classes roll, so you look at

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Speaker 2: something like equities. They took in two hundred and eleven billion.

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Speaker 2: So while it's down from like the second half of

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty three, and it has peaked it. It once

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Speaker 2: took in three hundred and fifty billion, so that's the record.

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Speaker 2: But I would say two hundred and eleven is probably

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Speaker 2: like the fourth best half on record.

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Speaker 1: Wait, it was three fifty and a half or a

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Speaker 1: full year.

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Speaker 2: That's for a half a year, Okay, Yeah, So if

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Speaker 2: you look at all halves, if you compare this half

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Speaker 2: to every half in existence, this would be the one,

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Speaker 2: two three fourth best half ever.

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Speaker 5: Believe.

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Speaker 6: I mean, we've seen in the time in the recent

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Speaker 6: past where the equity market climbed higher and ETF investors

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Speaker 6: were not participating. After the strong year we had in

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Speaker 6: twenty twenty three, I think it's really encouraging to see

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Speaker 6: money continue to go into equity ETFs, and in particular

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Speaker 6: some of the broad acid allocation oriented products that investors'

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Speaker 6: advisors keep embracing, the ETF rapper for the five hundred,

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Speaker 6: for the Nasdaq one hundred, and so forth.

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Speaker 2: This is a good point you're bringing up, actually, because

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Speaker 2: last year this time we called the FOMO drought, stocks

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Speaker 2: were up at the flows weren't there. So this time

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Speaker 2: last year equities took an one hundred and ten billion,

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Speaker 2: So one hundred billion more this year. Clearly investors are

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Speaker 2: getting in. You know why there was a FOMO drought

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Speaker 2: though money market funds were yielding five percent. Seems like

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Speaker 2: people are like, well, I'd rather have fifteen twenty percent

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Speaker 2: equity returns than five percent in money market. So that

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Speaker 2: seems to be the difference this year.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, but isn't within that equity sleeve. Isn't a lot

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Speaker 4: of it going to international equity, which I think it's

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Speaker 4: a little actually speaks more about risk off than risk on.

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Speaker 4: It's that search for value, which I think has been interesting.

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Speaker 4: A lot of money has gone for We always talk

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Speaker 4: about every year being the year of diversification into international,

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Speaker 4: and we are actually seeing that.

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Speaker 2: This year international did take in its fair share. But

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Speaker 2: US still rules for sure, but in portion a lot

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Speaker 2: of countries and regions are having all time highs. We

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Speaker 2: don't it doesn't break through in the US media because

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Speaker 2: whatever you're doing in another country out there, the QUES

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Speaker 2: is beating you.

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Speaker 6: It's like well and money and yeah, and money's going

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Speaker 6: into the Q the QS and QQQM in particular.

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Speaker 5: I know we're gonna get to the bottom up.

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Speaker 2: We on our team sometimes we like how much sell

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Speaker 2: side research could be summed up with by QQQ like it. Honestly,

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Speaker 2: it's it's really much easier than people make it out

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Speaker 2: to be. I mean, just this index is just lethal.

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Speaker 2: I mean, what's the point of investing anywhere else? Troll?

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Speaker 3: Well, you could do mag right, just the magnificent seven.

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Speaker 3: How does that compare?

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Speaker 2: That is interesting? By the way, are you surprised by

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Speaker 2: this that the ques are mostly Magnificent seven stocks? I

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Speaker 2: believe it's like fifty percent of the rest. But the

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Speaker 2: round hills, like, oh, why don't we just come out

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Speaker 2: with a magnificent seven cret cream of the crop and

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Speaker 2: it's got like a ton of money. Yeah, it just

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Speaker 2: seems like it's like, really, it was that simple.

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Speaker 6: You focus on those seven companies, eight stocks that's performed well,

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Speaker 6: even if a couple of them have dropped off. But yeah,

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Speaker 6: we're just excited to see the equity ETF adoption, both

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Speaker 6: actively managed equity ETFs which are quite strong, and even

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Speaker 6: the broad index space products as well.

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Speaker 3: Okay, what about fixed income because it's always been like,

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Speaker 3: this is always the year of the fixed income ETF.

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Speaker 2: It's you know, it's always the year of something, isn't it.

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Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, well, you know, you're an editorial, you

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Speaker 2: get everything like you.

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Speaker 1: Got three years running of like this is the year.

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Speaker 2: We doing out look for next year. I mean, anyway,

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Speaker 2: it's getting rair until in July. Okay, so let's look

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Speaker 2: at fixed income eighty nine billion. That would be about

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Speaker 2: the sixth best half ever. But I will say if

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Speaker 2: you look at a chart of fixed income flows, they

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Speaker 2: used to average forty thirty five billion a year a

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Speaker 2: half a year. Sorry, Now they're averaging one hundred you know,

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Speaker 2: ninety to one hundred and ten billion, So they around

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty around the pandemic, they just kind of went

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Speaker 2: into this other gear and they've lived up there.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 5: Yeah.

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Speaker 6: I mean, well, we saw adoption of fixed income ETFs

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Speaker 6: as the go to vehicle for institutional investors.

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Speaker 5: Who favored the liquidity.

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Speaker 6: But you got to even put this year in perspective

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Speaker 6: because coming in we had the overall industry expected multiple

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Speaker 6: rate cuts. We haven't had any yet as the time

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Speaker 6: we're recording this, and probably going to have one maybe

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Speaker 6: by the end of the year. That's just a different environment.

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Speaker 6: But it just shows that investors have rotated, they've been

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Speaker 6: comfortable taking on interest rate risk or taking it off

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Speaker 6: but using the ETFs as the vehicle of choice.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I would just sad. Just this morning, actually, I

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Speaker 4: was talking to the guy who does our vetafy pro

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Speaker 4: data analytics tool and codes all that stuff and he

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Speaker 4: runs all the portfolios, and he was telling me, like,

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Speaker 4: all the behavioral data shows that by far people are

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Speaker 4: playing around and trying to figure out how to build

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Speaker 4: equities even alternatives, and that fixed income is still that

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Speaker 4: after thought. Advisors are still like not quite sure what

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Speaker 4: to do about it. So I think there may be

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Speaker 4: still be like you know, early innings just going for

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Speaker 4: easy button choices because they're not quite sure how to

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Speaker 4: position at this point.

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Speaker 1: I love the easy button Eric.

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Speaker 2: I know he loves that, but by the way, he

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Speaker 2: thinks there should be an ETF, which makes it's a

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Speaker 2: logical thought where it's just everything in the entire world

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Speaker 2: in one ETF. You can just hit by and you.

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Speaker 1: Own it easy, but take her easy.

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Speaker 2: The problem is advisors want to be the deciders. It's

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Speaker 2: like you're putting advisors out of busess with that roll.

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Speaker 5: That's but it's a great self directed tool.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so one thing about fixed income that's interesting free

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Speaker 2: By the way, thanks for listening, we can create the

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Speaker 2: ind they have fixed income active managers are still in demand,

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Speaker 2: and so yes, there's some active fixed income ETFs, but

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Speaker 2: the active fixed income mutual funds have taken in money

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Speaker 2: so like bond managers. I think it's because it's like

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Speaker 2: there's so many bonds. The element of time is like

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Speaker 2: makes it more like chess than checkers. And I think

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Speaker 2: advisors still are willing to give money to a bond

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Speaker 2: manager and that will always I think, put somewhat of

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Speaker 2: a lid on fixed income relative to equities in the

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Speaker 2: ETF wrapper.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, but we are seeing the products that people have

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Speaker 6: gone to and the managers that they've gone to for

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Speaker 6: years in the mutual fun world are now available and

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Speaker 6: offering products in the ETF world. Capital Group has had

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Speaker 6: a lot of success with active fixed income ETFs.

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Speaker 5: PIMPO has been there the longest.

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Speaker 6: Blackrock, I know we're going to talk about individual products,

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Speaker 6: but Blackrock has had success with the bink ETF that's

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Speaker 6: run by Rick Reader not even or just past the

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Speaker 6: year and is crushing it in terms of asset gathering.

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Speaker 6: We are seeing more and more active management within the

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Speaker 6: fixed income space.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, no, it's got everything and corporate did the best

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Speaker 2: of every sector in bonds this year, and treasuries down

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Speaker 2: a little bit from last year. They switched places this

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Speaker 2: year as again investors taking on more risk. And then

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Speaker 2: you know what did really well that was kind of

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Speaker 2: introduced for recently is colo ETFs collateralized loan obligations, which

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Speaker 2: everybody kind of gets memories of two thousand and eight.

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Speaker 2: But I've talked to some of these people. They came

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Speaker 2: on ETF. It's not as bad as it's not as

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Speaker 2: risky as you think that JAW is now ten billion

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Speaker 2: dollars this the janis. Yeah, that crazy that we got

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Speaker 2: to have a segment called they grow Up So Fast.

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Speaker 2: JAW would be a great candidate.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, that's Janis Henderson putting their best in the ETF

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Speaker 6: structure and just tremendous demand. It just shows that the

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Speaker 6: ETF rapper works for many investment styles well.

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Speaker 4: And just to go back to the memory of the

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Speaker 4: CLOS is, we hope they don't grow up too fast.

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Speaker 4: We hope we know what we're doing this time around, right.

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Speaker 2: Fair point, Yeah, you don't want clos to grow up

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Speaker 2: too fast?

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Speaker 1: Right?

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Speaker 3: Okay, I want to talk about another asset class. And

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Speaker 3: we've gone through the usual ones. What about alternatives?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so alternative is a thirty five billion. That would

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Speaker 2: be the biggest year everag role by like fivefold. But

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Speaker 2: the thing is we put in the bitcoin ETFs into alternative,

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Speaker 2: so that's why that number is so big. If we

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Speaker 2: carve that out, alternative would be having an average year.

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Speaker 2: But the bitcoin ETFs all told are you know, fifteen

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Speaker 2: billions about between all the new ones that came out

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Speaker 2: and then even ibit has taken in a little bit,

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Speaker 2: So that is a tremendous start. We've talked about on

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Speaker 2: the show many times. But alternative overall is just pretty

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Speaker 2: small like hedge fund style ETFs, so that number is

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Speaker 2: a little skewed. But also interesting is commodities outflows this year,

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Speaker 2: so how much five billion dollars? So that's also interesting

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Speaker 2: is that the bitcoin ETFs cleaned up gold seeing outflows

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Speaker 2: even though that the price is up. That was an

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Speaker 2: interesting combo there with the.

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Speaker 1: Cashion on the real gold and put it in the

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Speaker 1: digital gold.

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Speaker 2: It seems like that's what people did, but you know,

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Speaker 2: we don't can't ever tell what exactly what they're doing,

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Speaker 2: but that seems like what happened.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, but we're hearing it vetify from advisors that are

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Speaker 6: now heading into the middle of the year. They're looking

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Speaker 6: towards alternative investments. They're not only looking to crypto, they're

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Speaker 6: looking to gold. We had verified would consider covered call

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Speaker 6: ETFs as perhaps within the alternative space that are options

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Speaker 6: based strategies from NEOs and JP Morgan among others. We're

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Speaker 6: seeing advisors investors looking for something else besides stock and

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Speaker 6: bond exposure using ETFs.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think twenty twenty two, which was the

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Speaker 2: really bad year, the sixty and the forty both went down,

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Speaker 2: and since that moment, people have said, Okay, I'm open

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Speaker 2: to something else that can hedge the sixty forty. So

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Speaker 2: I think that's where Active actually comes into play. Active,

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Speaker 2: by the way, having another big year. I think they've

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Speaker 2: taken in like twenty to thirty percent of the flows.

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Speaker 5: Again, and not just one category. We've seen it for categories.

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Speaker 6: We've seen it for equity, and we've seen it for

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Speaker 6: fixed income, which is just encourage.

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Speaker 1: What is it at this point? What's driving that? Do

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Speaker 1: you think? Todd?

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Speaker 6: I think the fact that we have supply is helping

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Speaker 6: that we have some of these leading asset managers Hero

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Speaker 6: Price and Fidelity Capital Group that I mentioned earlier. That's

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Speaker 6: playing a role. But given the market volatility, and certainly

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Speaker 6: in fixed income where I certainly don't know the next

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Speaker 6: move of the FED, the average investor may not know that.

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Speaker 6: Either they're comfortable turning to active management to get that expertise,

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Speaker 6: but they're also coming to active management for stock specific

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Speaker 6: ideas as well. We've seen some success and I know

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Speaker 6: when we get to the leader board we're going to

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Speaker 6: see some active products there.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, but I do think the branding power that has

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Speaker 4: stepped into the space has made a difference. Because if

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Speaker 4: you have to sit in front of a client and

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Speaker 4: explain why did you pick this active manager I never

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Speaker 4: heard of and it's not working, it's a really tough conversation.

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Speaker 1: The star power helps.

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Speaker 4: When you have that star power really helps.

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Speaker 2: And also we dug into the numbers of active it's

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Speaker 2: a little more nuanced than just oh, the return of

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Speaker 2: the stock picker. A lot of the active is the

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Speaker 2: cover qull atfs, which you could argue is people aren't

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Speaker 2: buying for the manager, they're buying for the actual income.

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Speaker 2: Then there's a chunk of active into like DFA, but

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Speaker 2: it's equal to the amount coming out of its mutual funds,

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Speaker 2: so there might be some just transfer.

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Speaker 5: Some of that.

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Speaker 6: But again fidality bondecounts I had already. Bond eef has

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Speaker 6: been popular this year.

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Speaker 2: The other thing is the fees finally got low inactive,

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Speaker 2: they finally got below like the twenty basis point all

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Speaker 2: important line and then and the other ones are below forty.

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Speaker 2: As long as you're below forty and you're active, you

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Speaker 2: have a fighting chance for organic growth in my opinion.

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Speaker 3: Which by the way, just back to bitcoin, where did

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Speaker 3: they come out at and where did they end up at?

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Speaker 1: From a few standpoint, Well.

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Speaker 2: I remember the arc was first I think there was

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Speaker 2: seventy five in a prospectus, and then Fidelite came in

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Speaker 2: thirty nine. Those are the first two and then boom.

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Speaker 2: There was like at twenty four period where Invesco was like, Okay,

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Speaker 2: we're twenty five, but we have a waiver, and then

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Speaker 2: BlackRock's like, oh, we're twenty five or something like that.

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Speaker 2: Once Blackrock went in twenty five, I think they went in.

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Speaker 2: Everybody had to get real close to that because you

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Speaker 2: can't be too farway from Blackrock if someone won't buy

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Speaker 2: your stuff, so then Blackrock I think then in introduce

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Speaker 2: the waiver after the dust subtle droll. All of them

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Speaker 2: were between twenty and thirty basis points. I think Franklin

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Speaker 2: actually went one lower to nineteen. And that's where we're at,

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Speaker 2: which I'm surprised to get. Well, not yet right now,

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Speaker 2: there's still the zero over You're right, there's waivers and stuff,

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Speaker 2: but I don't like to count the waiver too much

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Speaker 2: because it runs out, but the fee behind it is

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Speaker 2: still cheap, because sometimes there's waivers and the fee is

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Speaker 2: expensive behind it, but in this case, the fee behind

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Speaker 2: it isn't that bad either, which again speaks to the

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Speaker 2: terrodome aspect of the US market, where in other countries

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Speaker 2: and other vehicles, these bitcoin funds are over one percent,

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Speaker 2: so this is really monumentally cheap.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, but I'm curious to see how they unwind all

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Speaker 4: the waivers. I know they're specific, you know, dead end

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Speaker 4: dates on prospectuses and stuff. But you know, we've seen

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Speaker 4: that it's really hard to go from zero up, so

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Speaker 4: you end up getting a bunch of extensions and you know,

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Speaker 4: waiver to infinity. So I'm curious to see when when

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Speaker 4: the unwinding comes, where the reaction is.

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Speaker 1: The revenge of total Yeah, alright, Act two.

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Speaker 2: Okay, so we're gonna go tickers. So is the leaderboard

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Speaker 2: top five inflows of the year number one? You can

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Speaker 2: guess it VU, yes, Well, guess the number twenty five bill? Nope?

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Speaker 2: Higher forty yes? Uh? Forty billion is ridiculous. Okay, just

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Speaker 2: so you know, the record for a calendar year is

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Speaker 2: fifty So VU is already christion it. Yeah, I mean,

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Speaker 2: what a monster this thing is. The next one is

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Speaker 2: sixteen billion.

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Speaker 1: Joel, who's that hold on? Cynthia is gonna guess IVV?

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Speaker 2: Yes, good job, See told.

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Speaker 1: You it wasn't that hard. It's like the other It is.

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Speaker 5: Very very well.

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Speaker 2: It's kind of a tie. There's a tie for second.

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Speaker 2: IVV is one another one.

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Speaker 1: It was the other one, Todd.

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Speaker 5: It's I BIT right, that's right.

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Speaker 6: So so black Rock has the second and the third

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Speaker 6: largest EV.

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Speaker 2: It's the figure, the actual figure sixteen point nine, sixteen

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Speaker 2: point six. So IVV, I B I T But that

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Speaker 2: tells you vou is on another planet. Then you have

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Speaker 2: IVV and I BIT and then four and five you

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Speaker 2: guys can guess that that's a tougher one. We already

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Speaker 2: mentioned on this program.

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Speaker 1: Just I'm putting my money on Cynthia again.

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Speaker 2: Oh pressure, the ticker was already said on Yes.

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Speaker 1: How much did the ques take in twelve.

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Speaker 2: Point nine billions? So we'll run up to thirteen and

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Speaker 2: number five will run up to thirteen and you can

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Speaker 2: get this. Come on, I would go with fidelities. No,

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Speaker 2: that's seven, okay, this this is always in the top five.

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Speaker 2: It's always lingering. It's never one or two, but it's

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Speaker 2: always like five, four through six. This is a stud ETF.

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Speaker 2: It just slowly hoovers up money. This isoring. This is

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Speaker 2: Vanguard Total Stock Market. That's it VTI. So that's your

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Speaker 2: top five.

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Speaker 6: You don't like it when I bring the boring ETFs

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Speaker 6: to the top.

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Speaker 4: The problem is no fixed income in there.

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Speaker 2: No six is agg but you're right. The top five

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Speaker 2: is all stocks and bitcoin, which is in my opinion,

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Speaker 2: risk gone. But yeah, that's I'm not too surprised by this.

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Speaker 2: I think I bit taking in sixteen point six billion

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Speaker 2: as a surprise to anybody. That's a ton of money

390
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Speaker 2: for a new ETF. And the queues obviously going strong,

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Speaker 2: even though there's a cheaper option with QQQM, which is twelve.

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Speaker 1: Okay, do you think ibit can maintain this pace?

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Speaker 2: No, James and I have a calculation that the bitcoiny

394
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Speaker 2: tips will net ten to fifteen billion in one year.

395
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Speaker 2: They're already right about fifteen billion, so they've already gotten

396
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Speaker 2: to our ceiling. But remember, things can happen. Bitcoin could

397
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Speaker 2: have you know, it's very volatile. But I we're probably

398
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Speaker 2: going to be proven wrong. But let me give you

399
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Speaker 2: this stat. We just ran I bit touched twenty billion

400
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Speaker 2: in assets the other day barely. It's down in nineteen

401
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Speaker 2: point eight I think right now, but it touched twenty billion.

402
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Speaker 2: It reached twenty billion dollars in one hundred and it's

403
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Speaker 2: fifty seven days. The next fastest ETF to reach twenty

404
00:18:59,600 --> 00:19:02,240
Speaker 2: billion dollar? Do did it in nine hundred and like

405
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Speaker 2: forty days? Can you get the ticker? Well, I would

406
00:19:06,640 --> 00:19:10,960
Speaker 2: think it's GLD no cut, so it's a more recent one.

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00:19:11,960 --> 00:19:14,920
Speaker 6: Oh that's Jeppie then yes, okay, I was trying to

408
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Speaker 6: think of who was recent.

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Speaker 2: So anyway, this thing is breaking all kinds of records.

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Speaker 5: I just think it's impressive.

411
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Speaker 6: Well, first of all, VU on its own, that's going

412
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Speaker 6: to hit the record, as you mentioned, is impressive. We've

413
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Speaker 6: got those two IVV and VU and SPLG, which is

414
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Speaker 6: the stage street low cost ETF that's also punching above

415
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Speaker 6: its weight and gathering assets. I just come back to,

416
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Speaker 6: it's just so exciting that this is how people are

417
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Speaker 6: starting to get exposure to ETFs is through the S

418
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Speaker 6: and P five hundred, and then we're seeing the next

419
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Speaker 6: wave that's narrower slices or bitcoin or what have you.

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Speaker 2: You know, it's interesting. And eighthan look at this last

421
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Speaker 2: year the percentage of flows going into the S and

422
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Speaker 2: P five hundred ETFs. There's now four of them. We

423
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Speaker 2: got an spl and they're all again almost free. But

424
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Speaker 2: it's it's got to be over a quarter of the flows.

425
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Speaker 2: So even though we talk about these niche things there's

426
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Speaker 2: cheap Beta is just the real deal. It's just Hoover's

427
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Speaker 2: in cash hand over for Yeah.

428
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Speaker 4: But the Bitcoin is is ah object, Yeah, I mean

429
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Speaker 4: super shiny, and in the case of the success of

430
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Speaker 4: the launch, part of it is you know, oh the

431
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Speaker 4: ATF repper, that's awesome. We're all super you know protfs here,

432
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Speaker 4: But part of it is Bitcoin is a new asset

433
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Speaker 4: so can we repeat that unless somebody comes up with

434
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Speaker 4: a new acid, I don't think we'll ever see something

435
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Speaker 4: like that again. I don't even think the Ether ETFs

436
00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:42,840
Speaker 4: would be the same same phenomenon. I think, for one,

437
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Speaker 4: we're all tired. It all happened in the same year.

438
00:20:45,080 --> 00:20:47,440
Speaker 4: I don't think we can take much more or you're.

439
00:20:47,240 --> 00:20:50,040
Speaker 2: Gonna get to You know what Ethan said today when

440
00:20:50,119 --> 00:20:54,960
Speaker 2: when someone filed for a Ether spot covered call each other, Yeah, no,

441
00:20:55,160 --> 00:21:01,040
Speaker 2: make it stop. It's never gonna stop anyway. One more

442
00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:03,880
Speaker 2: thing on the I agree with you. Ether maybe takes

443
00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:07,520
Speaker 2: twenty percent of what bitcoin has. But Joel, what she

444
00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:10,080
Speaker 2: just said is something that I've been trying to explain

445
00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:12,080
Speaker 2: to people who might not love the fact that I've

446
00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:15,040
Speaker 2: gotten so into it. It's a once in a lifetime

447
00:21:15,080 --> 00:21:18,800
Speaker 2: opportunity or situation. As an analyst, I wasn't really around.

448
00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:20,840
Speaker 2: I just started covering ets when GLD came out, so

449
00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:23,359
Speaker 2: it wasn't really aware of how big that was. And

450
00:21:23,400 --> 00:21:27,320
Speaker 2: this is the biggest new asset class situation since gold.

451
00:21:28,080 --> 00:21:30,440
Speaker 2: So definitely again once every twenty years.

452
00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:32,359
Speaker 1: Maybe I just want to put that on record. You

453
00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:35,960
Speaker 1: think four billion for Ether? Yeah like that? That seems fair,

454
00:21:36,040 --> 00:21:39,240
Speaker 1: right or over under five you're going to take the under.

455
00:21:40,280 --> 00:21:41,840
Speaker 2: I would take the under any year.

456
00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:42,680
Speaker 4: Ah me too.

457
00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:44,160
Speaker 1: I say.

458
00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:46,560
Speaker 4: The closest to this experience that I remember is when

459
00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:48,920
Speaker 4: DXJ came out and we were all going nuts and

460
00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:52,240
Speaker 4: we're currency hadgi yes and by comparison.

461
00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:53,600
Speaker 2: By the way, that was the Remember that was one

462
00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:55,600
Speaker 2: of our trivia questions. That was the last THETF to

463
00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:59,119
Speaker 2: win the flow crown. That wasn't black Rock or Vanguard. Yeah,

464
00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:01,280
Speaker 2: that cool stat that is I think you might have

465
00:22:01,320 --> 00:22:02,200
Speaker 2: gotten it, Todd.

466
00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:05,399
Speaker 5: I got it right and and I won that.

467
00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:07,920
Speaker 2: By the way, we need a new bet. We were

468
00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:09,800
Speaker 2: thinking what can we bet on? So we'll see what

469
00:22:09,800 --> 00:22:10,280
Speaker 2: we come up with.

470
00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:11,280
Speaker 1: The We're not.

471
00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:14,680
Speaker 2: Done yet, all right now. The outflows which is interesting, okay,

472
00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:18,880
Speaker 2: GBTC negative eighteen billion, that is a bomb. What an

473
00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:21,440
Speaker 2: unlocked There's a whole can of worms there.

474
00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:26,879
Speaker 3: Spy is because all the other bitcoin ETFs took in inflows.

475
00:22:27,320 --> 00:22:30,880
Speaker 2: Well we no, but like FTX had some legal money

476
00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:32,119
Speaker 2: in there that went out that didn't go to the

477
00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:35,560
Speaker 2: bigcoin ETFs. There was some other lawsuits I would call

478
00:22:35,600 --> 00:22:39,080
Speaker 2: these like unnatural operational money that left I think half

479
00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:41,639
Speaker 2: of it the other half probably found a cheaper ETF. Okay,

480
00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:45,160
Speaker 2: but definitely that is just unbelievable. No ETF has ever

481
00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:46,680
Speaker 2: seen that much money come out, and that short of.

482
00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:47,320
Speaker 1: What was that figure?

483
00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:50,960
Speaker 2: Eighteen billion? Okay, and the next under five months and

484
00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:53,880
Speaker 2: number two number two is SPY. Now here's the thing

485
00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:55,760
Speaker 2: with SPY, so negative eleven billion. We just talked about

486
00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:58,040
Speaker 2: how great s andp P five hundred ETFs are. SPY

487
00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:01,000
Speaker 2: took in forty billion in December or something like that,

488
00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:03,320
Speaker 2: so some of this was people going into do tax

489
00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:05,919
Speaker 2: loss harvesting. So I think some of Spy's money is

490
00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:08,639
Speaker 2: the leaving what went in December. So again i'd call

491
00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:09,359
Speaker 2: that operational.

492
00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:11,320
Speaker 1: But it can't get any cheaper like the others can.

493
00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:13,879
Speaker 2: That's the thing though, is there's generally a headwind with

494
00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:15,960
Speaker 2: SPY because it is more expensive.

495
00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:19,480
Speaker 1: And yet qqq has the same problem with these investment

496
00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:21,600
Speaker 1: trust structures.

497
00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:24,280
Speaker 2: I also think that QQQM still isn't liquid enough to

498
00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:26,719
Speaker 2: get the trading money yet, whereas IVV and V were

499
00:23:26,720 --> 00:23:29,360
Speaker 2: actually getting so liquid that even a hedge fund will

500
00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:31,760
Speaker 2: be like, I'm fine with the liquidity there. So when

501
00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:34,199
Speaker 2: QQQM gets a little more liquidity, I think q's are

502
00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:36,399
Speaker 2: going to be in the same boat as Spy Number

503
00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:40,639
Speaker 2: three is a fascinating small caps IWM. How about ever,

504
00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:42,520
Speaker 2: it's supposed to be the year of small caps a lot,

505
00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:43,600
Speaker 2: it never happens.

506
00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:46,680
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, well, the interest rate environment plays a

507
00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:49,480
Speaker 6: role in that that we haven't seen cuts that would

508
00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:52,800
Speaker 6: have been conducive for small caps. And yes, there's cheaper

509
00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:57,320
Speaker 6: alternatives for getting small cap exposure, whether it's tied to

510
00:23:57,320 --> 00:24:00,199
Speaker 6: the S and P six hundred from I shares or

511
00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:03,320
Speaker 6: a stage street. The stage Street small Cap BTF has

512
00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:06,600
Speaker 6: been actually quite popular as of late, but there's other

513
00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:08,160
Speaker 6: alternatives in IWM.

514
00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:12,719
Speaker 3: So far, we've checked three year of favorites, international fixed

515
00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:13,960
Speaker 3: income and small.

516
00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:17,679
Speaker 2: Caps and small caps. There's another issue whereas companies more

517
00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:22,160
Speaker 2: and more, they ipo larger, so it's like the small

518
00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:23,879
Speaker 2: they don't even get to be small caps for a

519
00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:26,359
Speaker 2: little bit and get a little of that juice. So

520
00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:28,600
Speaker 2: I think they're almost like there's a would you call

521
00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:33,600
Speaker 2: that like a secular issue with the IPOs now, it's

522
00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:35,560
Speaker 2: almost like when Kobe Bryant went right to the NBA,

523
00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:38,040
Speaker 2: it was in no college at all that you can't

524
00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:40,040
Speaker 2: do that anymore. It's one and done, but you have

525
00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:42,760
Speaker 2: to go into a college now. But small caps, the

526
00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:45,639
Speaker 2: IPOs go right to the large cap area now, so

527
00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:48,119
Speaker 2: small caps I think also suffer because they don't have

528
00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:51,160
Speaker 2: any star power, right and if you are a star,

529
00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:53,359
Speaker 2: you quickly go up the ranks to large caps quickly,

530
00:24:53,840 --> 00:24:56,320
Speaker 2: so you're left with a lot of junk. That's why

531
00:24:56,359 --> 00:24:58,159
Speaker 2: CALF I think did so well. It's small cap free

532
00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:01,440
Speaker 2: cash list, so at least you're with quality cash generating

533
00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:04,280
Speaker 2: small caps and that is a was a monster hit.

534
00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:05,040
Speaker 5: Yeah.

535
00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:07,439
Speaker 2: ETF of the Year. By the way, in the ETF awards,

536
00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:10,719
Speaker 2: remember okay, but you got one more I do and

537
00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:15,160
Speaker 2: us m V is the fourth most outflows. Remember that's

538
00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:17,800
Speaker 2: the ice shares minimum volatility. This was the bell of

539
00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:20,719
Speaker 2: the ball right for about five years back then everybody

540
00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:25,639
Speaker 2: was into minim minimum volatility. Local Athan has a theory

541
00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:28,040
Speaker 2: on this is that you know the buffer ets which

542
00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:31,879
Speaker 2: target your outcome perfectly. They've kind of stolen the thunder

543
00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:34,280
Speaker 2: of low vall because if you're a boomer and you

544
00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:37,400
Speaker 2: want the stock market but with less risk the boomer,

545
00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:42,560
Speaker 2: the buffer ETFs actually gets you more targeted outcome. Then

546
00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:44,879
Speaker 2: you can predict with a low vall. What do you

547
00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:45,679
Speaker 2: think of that theory.

548
00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:48,439
Speaker 6: I see the merit of that, and certainly the buffer

549
00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:51,600
Speaker 6: and defined outcome and controlling that plays a role. But

550
00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:54,919
Speaker 6: I think also we've seen a rotation from menwhile to

551
00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:59,160
Speaker 6: Quality and so the I shares Quality ETF QUA L

552
00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:02,679
Speaker 6: saw it strong net inflows earlier in the year, and

553
00:26:02,760 --> 00:26:04,480
Speaker 6: I think that's probably some of that might be a

554
00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:07,880
Speaker 6: model rotation out of menvall and into quality.

555
00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:11,600
Speaker 4: Plus VALL hasn't been that high anyway this year, you know,

556
00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:13,800
Speaker 4: so maybe we're not that worried.

557
00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:17,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I I those are definitely obviously good answers,

558
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:20,800
Speaker 2: and I think though the buffer, there's just more competition

559
00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:22,960
Speaker 2: now for like, hey, I want the market, but I

560
00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:25,800
Speaker 2: don't I want less risk diet market or something like that.

561
00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:28,000
Speaker 2: And minvall used to have the whole, the.

562
00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:30,920
Speaker 6: Whole, uh yeah, I mean even Calamos that just launched

563
00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:36,720
Speaker 6: the one hundred percent downside Protection ETF strecture Protection, thank you,

564
00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:39,920
Speaker 6: Structure Protection ETF has seen strong demand out of the

565
00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:42,080
Speaker 6: gate for these two new products.

566
00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:51,880
Speaker 1: Okay, pack three.

567
00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:57,439
Speaker 2: All right, let's look at issuers. Okay, Number one, no

568
00:26:57,560 --> 00:27:01,000
Speaker 2: shocker here, Vanguard with one hundred and three billion Okay,

569
00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:04,359
Speaker 2: so that's a third of all the money. Just like

570
00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:08,800
Speaker 2: a giant vacuum cleaner. Number two is a vacuum cleaner.

571
00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:15,760
Speaker 2: What a Pennsylvania vacuum cleaner? Yeah, Keystone State. I don't understand.

572
00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:22,280
Speaker 2: We're talking about Allentown. It's kind of visual some manufacturing jobs.

573
00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:25,240
Speaker 2: I don't know that Pennsylvania vacuum cleaners are really good.

574
00:27:25,640 --> 00:27:28,080
Speaker 1: It's like American maid Yeah.

575
00:27:28,160 --> 00:27:32,040
Speaker 2: I mean, also it's interesting Vanguard just rolls on. I

576
00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:35,280
Speaker 2: just don't see anything that really takes away from the

577
00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:39,240
Speaker 2: reputational inertia they have, not to mention, again, everybody loves

578
00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:42,800
Speaker 2: cheap beta, and this is before they've really rolled in

579
00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:45,760
Speaker 2: any of their active strategies with full with you know,

580
00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:48,920
Speaker 2: especially on the equity side, they could easily keep leading

581
00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:52,639
Speaker 2: by almost two lengths if they were to fold in

582
00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:54,800
Speaker 2: some of their active strategies in my opinion.

583
00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:57,040
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, if and when they bring more of

584
00:27:57,080 --> 00:28:00,400
Speaker 6: the best of Vanguard into the ETF structure, I would

585
00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:02,639
Speaker 6: agree with you. But we've even seen bn d X,

586
00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:07,600
Speaker 6: the Vanguard International bond ETF be very popular this year.

587
00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:10,679
Speaker 6: You get, of course, what it says international bonds to

588
00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:15,399
Speaker 6: broadly diversify, not just equities, but also overseas that's been

589
00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:17,480
Speaker 6: hoovering up money as well.

590
00:28:17,520 --> 00:28:19,480
Speaker 2: And what do you think of the new CEO? So

591
00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:22,679
Speaker 2: they just hired Blackrocks Salem Ramsey who used to be

592
00:28:22,680 --> 00:28:27,280
Speaker 2: the CEO, the head of Blackrocks Global ETF business. It's

593
00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:30,760
Speaker 2: interesting he's gonna he's a little more dynamic. I think

594
00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:31,879
Speaker 2: we're the.

595
00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:37,200
Speaker 4: Person he the first one who wasn't internally bred so outside.

596
00:28:37,320 --> 00:28:39,080
Speaker 2: I think that helps, right, Do you think that helps

597
00:28:39,160 --> 00:28:39,720
Speaker 2: or hurts?

598
00:28:40,040 --> 00:28:42,280
Speaker 6: I think it helps and that you can bring in

599
00:28:42,320 --> 00:28:46,240
Speaker 6: a fresh perspective as opposed to just the Vanguard way

600
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:48,440
Speaker 6: of doing things. But I think he's going to keep

601
00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:51,640
Speaker 6: a lot of the same thing as the same and

602
00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:55,400
Speaker 6: we'll see just an evolution bringing the best. Blackrock has

603
00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:59,160
Speaker 6: been increasingly bringing active managers like Rick Reader into the

604
00:28:59,160 --> 00:28:59,920
Speaker 6: ETF space.

605
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:02,040
Speaker 5: I think we're going to see more of that from Vanguard.

606
00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:07,120
Speaker 3: How does one hundred and three billion compare with previous issuer.

607
00:29:07,760 --> 00:29:12,120
Speaker 2: Performance, Well, I'd say it's largely on part because if

608
00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:14,800
Speaker 2: you look at the last ten years, Vanguard's taken in

609
00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:17,960
Speaker 2: about nine hundred million dollars a day. There's two hundred

610
00:29:17,960 --> 00:29:19,960
Speaker 2: and fifty training days in a year, so they're at

611
00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:23,560
Speaker 2: one hundred and three billion. If they go to two

612
00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:25,680
Speaker 2: hundred and six billion by the end of the year,

613
00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:29,160
Speaker 2: that's about eight hundred million, So they're just about on pace.

614
00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:32,640
Speaker 6: I totally would have done that using market share numbers

615
00:29:32,640 --> 00:29:34,840
Speaker 6: in my head of what their percentage of their market

616
00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:37,840
Speaker 6: share is versus the market share they're pulling in. You

617
00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:40,120
Speaker 6: were going nine hundred million a day and trying to

618
00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:42,080
Speaker 6: do that by two hundred and fifty business.

619
00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:43,360
Speaker 5: The reason the.

620
00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:46,160
Speaker 2: Reason I do that is because that is a crazy

621
00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:49,040
Speaker 2: stat not nine hundred million a day for like a

622
00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:51,640
Speaker 2: couple months when you got hot, but like a decade.

623
00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:55,320
Speaker 2: Think about that. Certain firms are happy to be nine

624
00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:56,320
Speaker 2: hundred million total.

625
00:29:57,120 --> 00:30:00,960
Speaker 4: Okay, So, so far as we talk about changing leadership,

626
00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:04,200
Speaker 4: what it means for the future a Vanguard is is

627
00:30:04,280 --> 00:30:09,400
Speaker 4: Vanguard's reach multi generational? Is this like younger, different generations

628
00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:12,280
Speaker 4: of investors coming in and they're all buying Vanguard or

629
00:30:12,400 --> 00:30:16,240
Speaker 4: is this just the existing you know, our generation just

630
00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:18,320
Speaker 4: putting more of their money within Vanguard.

631
00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:21,760
Speaker 2: It's a good question. And the people who are at

632
00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:25,719
Speaker 2: Vanguard are if they came in early, they're they're rich now,

633
00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:28,000
Speaker 2: they're boomers. They have almost all the money in America.

634
00:30:28,160 --> 00:30:32,640
Speaker 2: So it's a good point. I think translating Vanguard's message

635
00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:36,160
Speaker 2: to younger people will be a challenge. But at the

636
00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:38,360
Speaker 2: end of the day, once you like settle down from

637
00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:41,080
Speaker 2: like your gambling, like meme stocks and all that, I

638
00:30:41,120 --> 00:30:43,880
Speaker 2: know young people like to get lottery ticket investing. Once

639
00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:45,520
Speaker 2: you kind of get a little older and like you

640
00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:47,360
Speaker 2: have more pressure for money, I just think you're going

641
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:50,000
Speaker 2: to find your way to the benefits of a low

642
00:30:50,120 --> 00:30:52,640
Speaker 2: cost index fund. It's just natural progression.

643
00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:56,239
Speaker 1: What is the number for issue or number two?

644
00:30:57,120 --> 00:31:00,800
Speaker 2: It's Blackrock at sixty five billion, so a little over

645
00:31:00,880 --> 00:31:02,680
Speaker 2: half only of what Vanguard has.

646
00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:04,600
Speaker 5: But still a strong a strong year.

647
00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:07,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, we talked about half a year and it's yes, yes.

648
00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:11,480
Speaker 5: So we've talked about IBIT already. We talked about IVV.

649
00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:15,040
Speaker 6: They've had some success. They've had success with active management

650
00:31:15,320 --> 00:31:18,440
Speaker 6: as well. They made some model allocation changes. So d

651
00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:23,680
Speaker 6: y n F, which is the Blackrock Equity Factor Rotation ETF.

652
00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:27,360
Speaker 6: That's among the more popular ETFs for the year. Bank

653
00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:32,040
Speaker 6: I mentioned earlier, the Blackrock Active fixed Income ETFO.

654
00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:34,720
Speaker 5: I know a few tickers off.

655
00:31:34,680 --> 00:31:35,120
Speaker 1: Top of my head.

656
00:31:35,160 --> 00:31:37,560
Speaker 6: I've got three thousand plus children to try to remember.

657
00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 6: I gotta throw some I gotta throw some love to

658
00:31:40,240 --> 00:31:40,800
Speaker 6: some of them.

659
00:31:41,160 --> 00:31:43,880
Speaker 3: I'm not surprised at all here you got Vanguard number one,

660
00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:45,280
Speaker 3: black Rock number two.

661
00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:46,440
Speaker 1: Surprise.

662
00:31:46,720 --> 00:31:50,240
Speaker 2: But here's one thing about BlackRock's number that's interesting. Is

663
00:31:50,320 --> 00:31:53,520
Speaker 2: twenty five percent of that number though, is ibit. So

664
00:31:53,600 --> 00:31:55,400
Speaker 2: had they not gotten into the bitcoiny T, if they

665
00:31:55,440 --> 00:31:58,560
Speaker 2: weren't approved or they weren't improved, then Vanguard would be

666
00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:01,840
Speaker 2: over double anybody else easily, which again I don't think

667
00:32:01,840 --> 00:32:04,000
Speaker 2: there's been a year where one issuer took in twice

668
00:32:04,520 --> 00:32:07,920
Speaker 2: anyone else. So this Vanguard is playing with a sort

669
00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:10,880
Speaker 2: of a record situation here. And what's it was amazing

670
00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:13,600
Speaker 2: is all that could happen despite them not having the

671
00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:18,120
Speaker 2: bitcoin ETFs, which have been real huge successes for black Rock.

672
00:32:18,200 --> 00:32:20,280
Speaker 2: And then also the number three Ashore, which is Invesco,

673
00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:24,960
Speaker 2: and then number five is Fidelity. Fidelity's fifteen point eight billion.

674
00:32:25,200 --> 00:32:27,959
Speaker 2: The bitcoin ETF is fifty six percent of that number,

675
00:32:28,880 --> 00:32:32,320
Speaker 2: So it's lifted up some people into the leaderboard and

676
00:32:32,400 --> 00:32:35,040
Speaker 2: help them a lot. That just makes Vanguard's number all

677
00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:36,880
Speaker 2: that more impressive because they don't have any of that.

678
00:32:37,240 --> 00:32:39,440
Speaker 6: Yeah, but you're to the other point of it that

679
00:32:39,520 --> 00:32:43,080
Speaker 6: bitcoin ETFs have been a game changer in the ETF space.

680
00:32:43,280 --> 00:32:47,720
Speaker 6: They've appropriately gotten attention from the issuers that are not

681
00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:51,200
Speaker 6: only competing on price, but some of the firms it's

682
00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:54,680
Speaker 6: helping to drive their overall flows. So Fidelity, it certainly

683
00:32:54,760 --> 00:32:57,719
Speaker 6: is as well. As you mentioned, Fidelity has increasingly been

684
00:32:57,760 --> 00:33:02,640
Speaker 6: turning to active management in the ETF structure. So FBND,

685
00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:07,000
Speaker 6: which has a tremendous long term track record, has continued

686
00:33:07,040 --> 00:33:09,960
Speaker 6: to see love and attention. I'm assuming most of that

687
00:33:10,040 --> 00:33:14,400
Speaker 6: Invesco is the Triple QS and qqq M, but they've

688
00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:17,360
Speaker 6: had some success also with some other products.

689
00:33:17,840 --> 00:33:20,800
Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely, they're having a good year. I gotta say

690
00:33:20,800 --> 00:33:22,000
Speaker 2: they're not normally the top five.

691
00:33:22,480 --> 00:33:26,320
Speaker 3: Okay, so Vanguard number one, black Rock number two, I'm

692
00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:29,480
Speaker 3: not that surprised take it away from there.

693
00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:33,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, so Invesco three, that's they're not normally that high.

694
00:33:33,080 --> 00:33:36,400
Speaker 2: At thirty five billion JP Morgan, then there's a huge drop.

695
00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:41,400
Speaker 2: JP Morgan is eighteen billion, Fidelity sixteen billion, DFA, Schwab, Pacer,

696
00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:46,720
Speaker 2: Capitol Group, Avantas, JP Morgan eighteen point three. Now they've

697
00:33:46,760 --> 00:33:49,320
Speaker 2: been punching above their weight for five six years now,

698
00:33:49,440 --> 00:33:52,760
Speaker 2: but they lost their main guy, Brian Lake. He went

699
00:33:52,800 --> 00:33:56,240
Speaker 2: to Goldman, which is you know, it's like a division

700
00:33:56,320 --> 00:34:01,560
Speaker 2: rival and Goldman has fallen on hard time. So do

701
00:34:01,600 --> 00:34:04,640
Speaker 2: you think that Goldman will rise up? JP Morgan fall

702
00:34:04,640 --> 00:34:05,120
Speaker 2: a little bit?

703
00:34:05,640 --> 00:34:08,319
Speaker 6: So yes, but I think just that's inevitable. I'm not

704
00:34:08,560 --> 00:34:11,439
Speaker 6: Brian Lake. Shifting teams is going to play a part

705
00:34:11,480 --> 00:34:14,200
Speaker 6: on that. But covered qual ETFs have been driving a

706
00:34:14,280 --> 00:34:17,600
Speaker 6: lot of what JP Morgan's success has been. I think

707
00:34:17,640 --> 00:34:21,880
Speaker 6: Goldman has the in house expertise in other areas, and

708
00:34:21,920 --> 00:34:26,160
Speaker 6: I expect we're going to see product development towards active management,

709
00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:29,440
Speaker 6: bringing the best of Goldman into the ETF world. And

710
00:34:29,480 --> 00:34:31,560
Speaker 6: so yes, I would expect a year from now when

711
00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:34,279
Speaker 6: you bring us back for another halftime report, we'll be

712
00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:36,240
Speaker 6: talking about the success of Goldman.

713
00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:37,600
Speaker 5: See I just invited us back.

714
00:34:37,640 --> 00:34:39,799
Speaker 3: I was going to say, it just assumes that he's

715
00:34:39,800 --> 00:34:41,359
Speaker 3: coming over for the holidays every year.

716
00:34:42,880 --> 00:34:45,160
Speaker 5: If I show up with food, you'll you'll let me in.

717
00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:46,879
Speaker 1: The other one in there, Pacer.

718
00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:51,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, Well, we went over Calf earlier, but Calf and

719
00:34:51,200 --> 00:34:53,760
Speaker 2: Cal's are blockbuster hits.

720
00:34:54,200 --> 00:34:54,440
Speaker 1: To me.

721
00:34:54,560 --> 00:34:58,960
Speaker 2: Pacer is the arc of the higher rates era, because

722
00:34:58,960 --> 00:35:02,520
Speaker 2: once rates went up It really made cash flow so

723
00:35:02,600 --> 00:35:04,680
Speaker 2: much more important, whereas ARC stocks are a little more

724
00:35:04,760 --> 00:35:06,520
Speaker 2: like we don't care about cash flow, We're just betting

725
00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:09,520
Speaker 2: on the future. But now the rates are up, everybody's like,

726
00:35:09,600 --> 00:35:13,120
Speaker 2: where's the money. So now these are like perfectly targeted

727
00:35:13,160 --> 00:35:16,240
Speaker 2: to go after free cash flow. Greats thought about CALF.

728
00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:19,400
Speaker 2: By the way, it's not just destroying IWM, it's beating

729
00:35:19,400 --> 00:35:21,719
Speaker 2: the S and P. So it's interesting we talk about

730
00:35:21,760 --> 00:35:24,680
Speaker 2: small caps doing so poorly, but CAF managed to select

731
00:35:24,680 --> 00:35:27,839
Speaker 2: one hundred of them that could beat large caps and

732
00:35:27,880 --> 00:35:29,400
Speaker 2: that's why the money is so good. You know that

733
00:35:29,800 --> 00:35:34,640
Speaker 2: CAF is taken in flows every month since the pandemic. Again,

734
00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:38,240
Speaker 2: it's very ARC esque in that it just its number

735
00:35:38,280 --> 00:35:40,520
Speaker 2: came up, the stars aligned on it, the sun shone,

736
00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:43,120
Speaker 2: whatever metaphor you want to use. Right when the Fed

737
00:35:43,239 --> 00:35:46,000
Speaker 2: raised rates, it's like when the Fed raised rates, they

738
00:35:46,080 --> 00:35:50,000
Speaker 2: sort of like it's like the soccer ball got kicked

739
00:35:50,040 --> 00:35:52,239
Speaker 2: to a different part of the field and a kind

740
00:35:52,280 --> 00:35:54,400
Speaker 2: of away from the growth thing into the cash flow thing.

741
00:35:54,520 --> 00:35:56,920
Speaker 5: Totally did not see a soccer analogy coming from you.

742
00:35:57,360 --> 00:35:59,440
Speaker 2: I know I'm not a huge fan, but it just

743
00:35:59,440 --> 00:36:02,319
Speaker 2: seems like a good metaphor because you have to stay

744
00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:05,200
Speaker 2: home in soccer, you know, because people like chase the

745
00:36:05,200 --> 00:36:07,480
Speaker 2: ball around. Like if you've seen like little kids play soccer,

746
00:36:07,680 --> 00:36:09,880
Speaker 2: that's what I feel like. Sometimes these flows remind me

747
00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:12,279
Speaker 2: of little kids chasing the ball around. But it's better

748
00:36:12,360 --> 00:36:13,520
Speaker 2: to stay home because it will get kick.

749
00:36:13,640 --> 00:36:15,120
Speaker 1: Vanguard's just sitting there like score.

750
00:36:15,280 --> 00:36:17,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, there are wherever the ball. They're in the field.

751
00:36:17,160 --> 00:36:19,359
Speaker 1: They are all right.

752
00:36:19,560 --> 00:36:22,600
Speaker 3: On that note, Cynthia Todd, thanks so much for joining

753
00:36:22,680 --> 00:36:23,280
Speaker 3: us on Trillions.

754
00:36:23,480 --> 00:36:25,040
Speaker 4: Hey listen, thanks for having us.

755
00:36:25,160 --> 00:36:26,719
Speaker 5: It's our pleasure. We'll see you next year.

756
00:36:32,600 --> 00:36:35,560
Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to Trillions until next time. You can

757
00:36:35,600 --> 00:36:40,480
Speaker 3: find us on the Bloomberg terminal, Bloomberg dot com, Apple Podcasts, Spotify,

758
00:36:41,080 --> 00:36:43,520
Speaker 3: or wherever else you'd like to listen. We'd love to

759
00:36:43,560 --> 00:36:46,879
Speaker 3: hear from you. We're on Twitter. I'm at Joel Webbers Show.

760
00:36:47,280 --> 00:36:51,920
Speaker 3: He's at Eric Balchunis. This episode of Trillions was produced

761
00:36:51,960 --> 00:36:52,960
Speaker 3: by Magnus Hendrickson.

762
00:36:53,840 --> 00:37:00,560
Speaker 1: Bye