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Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you welcome into the Monday

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Speaker 1: morning edition of the Daily Juice Podcast. My name is

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Speaker 1: Matt Parolta. I'm your host for this daily extravaganza. Every

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Speaker 1: single day you get your Daily Juice being brought to

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Speaker 1: you by bet MGM always being found here on bettingcros

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Speaker 1: dot com. You can follow me on Twitter at Sports

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Speaker 1: Talk Matt. One day, maybe we'll start a Daily Juice

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Speaker 1: Twitter account and maybe that will be something we'll bring

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Speaker 1: up and have, but right now it's just a hashtag

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Speaker 1: hashtag Daily Juice on Twitter. You want to follow along

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Speaker 1: all the fun that we've been having because look at

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Speaker 1: this is the good time. We have to appreciate the

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Speaker 1: good time because the bad times are going to be

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Speaker 1: around the corner, like we always know, right, you got

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Speaker 1: to appreciate the sunshine because the rain clouds will come back.

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Speaker 1: We were awful after Thanksgiving. It was bad, bad, bad.

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Speaker 1: Right now it's good good, good. So let's just recap

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Speaker 1: where we are. We got two NFL games to break

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Speaker 1: down here today for us. Let's talk about the recap

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Speaker 1: six and oh yesterday. You can't do much better than

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Speaker 1: six and oh up six units. You can't beat that like,

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Speaker 1: that's just that's just money, literally money. Six and oh,

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Speaker 1: three and one on the podcast on Saturday up a

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Speaker 1: couple of units there, and three and oh in the

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Speaker 1: discord chat on Saturday, oh and one on the Discord

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Speaker 1: chat for I just wanted to have something going for

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Speaker 1: the Sunday night game because we were so hot, so

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Speaker 1: I just did the same game teaser for the Chiefs

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Speaker 1: and the Broncos. The total didn't hit, Chiefs didn't get there,

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Speaker 1: so it was just not a great That was a

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Speaker 1: tough game. So that was another game where the books

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Speaker 1: cleaned up with the under and the Broncos covering. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: oh and one there today in the Discord chat, three

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Speaker 1: and one overall, So if you include the two and

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Speaker 1: two mark on prop bets that I had today, I

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Speaker 1: went fifteen and four. If you include the three prop

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Speaker 1: bets that Dan Harris gave out on the live Discord

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Speaker 1: chat that we had sor on the live YouTube chat

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Speaker 1: rather this morning on our live stream, eighteen and four

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Speaker 1: over the last two days. Eighteen and four guys, over

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Speaker 1: the last two days. So look, we've made up for

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Speaker 1: where we were and now we're up. We made up

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Speaker 1: the losses from the week and we end the week up.

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Speaker 1: I mean, that's what can happen if you get on

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Speaker 1: a roll and you get you know, you start seeing

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Speaker 1: the board. Well, I told you I liked the plays, right,

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Speaker 1: so let's be frank. I got a little lucky. The

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Speaker 1: Raiders cover for the teaser was lucky, all right. That

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Speaker 1: was a discord chat and a live stream ad that

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Speaker 1: we had. We had five on the podcast in one

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Speaker 1: on the discord chat slash YouTube live stream. Raiders mist

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Speaker 1: one and a half in the Browns plus ten. Brown's

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Speaker 1: got their easily. They won the game outright. I should

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Speaker 1: have bet the Browns plus five and a half. That

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Speaker 1: was one of my plays. If you listen to the

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Speaker 1: Dan Harrison I podcast, the Betting Pros NFL podcast, I

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Speaker 1: kind of stood on the table for the Browns. He

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Speaker 1: didn't like it. I liked the Browns. Browns win the

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Speaker 1: game outright. Forget the five and a half. But the

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Speaker 1: Raiders with their Hail Mary, last second come from behind touchdown,

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Speaker 1: that never should have been huge argument going on right

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Speaker 1: now whether the Jets blew the game on purpose by

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Speaker 1: playing cover zero and allowing a Speedster and Henry Ruggs

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Speaker 1: to go one on one on the outside with really

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Speaker 1: only one play to make for Derek Carr, and that's

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Speaker 1: throw up, you know, a Hail Mary type pass which

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Speaker 1: was beautiful rainbow touchdown, game winner, Raiders win. We cover

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Speaker 1: insane cover for us with the minus one and a half.

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Speaker 1: So we got that teaser right. Patriots high forty five nothing,

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Speaker 1: ripping apart the Chargers even I didn't see that coming.

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Speaker 1: Forty five nothing. So the Patriots plus two and the

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Speaker 1: Pats plus eight Packards had a little scale. They're late,

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Speaker 1: but woke up to cover that two and a half

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Speaker 1: point number against the Eagles. So the parult two team

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Speaker 1: teaser goes to nine and four now on the year

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Speaker 1: with back to back victories. That was cool this week

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Speaker 1: and last week Saints get a win. They hung on

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Speaker 1: to cover the two and a half point number. Rams,

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Speaker 1: well the Rams did. That was my pick of the week.

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Speaker 1: And the Rams did just what I thought they were

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Speaker 1: going to do to the offense and Kyler Murray I

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Speaker 1: don't believe is healthy personally, big plays for that defense,

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Speaker 1: and Rams stood, you know, really just stood up and

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Speaker 1: did it. Had a really impressive game. And coupling that

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Speaker 1: with the Seahawks loss, are Rams plus two thirty five.

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Speaker 1: I gotta look at the odds of that. I forget

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Speaker 1: where we are for the Rams to win the West,

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Speaker 1: but that bet now is very much alive. The Rams

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Speaker 1: are in first place. And then the luck of the luck.

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Speaker 1: And I'm going to give you credit. I'm going to

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Speaker 1: you know, give the gods credit here. We really had

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Speaker 1: no business cashing the Colts. I was right, the Texans

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Speaker 1: were the right side in that game. But everyone who

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Speaker 1: talk to me into the Colts. That's you know, for

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Speaker 1: the bad beats in all of the hook losses, and

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Speaker 1: you know the Kentucky Kansas game, that loss for the

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Speaker 1: Chiefs Bucks game, that loss, You're gonna get it evened out, right.

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Speaker 1: And that's the thing you got to keep on telling yourself,

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Speaker 1: even when everything's going against you, you have to keep

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Speaker 1: on telling yourself that look at it's going to even up.

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Speaker 1: You're going to get a break. And that is the

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Speaker 1: break of breaks when on the two yard line Deshaun

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Speaker 1: Watson fumbles the game away and you cover the three

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Speaker 1: point line for the Colts. So I had all the

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Speaker 1: plays going here for uh, I had the Colts in

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Speaker 1: all three of my team plays. I had a bet

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Speaker 1: on the Colts. So four things would have gone up

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Speaker 1: in smoke if it wasn't for that fumble. That fumble

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Speaker 1: was huge. So the Colts. Wow, Raiders, Wow, Remember that

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Speaker 1: when we get bad breaks, that's a key. Now, remember

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Speaker 1: that when things are going really crappy for us and

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Speaker 1: we're just kicking, you know, dirt going, man, just can't

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Speaker 1: catch a break. We just caught two monster breaks. Okay,

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Speaker 1: huge games that we cashed, tickets that we didn't have

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Speaker 1: really a right to, and after being on the wrong

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Speaker 1: side for what felt like eternity, were now on the

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Speaker 1: right side a couple of those breaks here today so

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Speaker 1: or yesterday. So that's just gigantic, I mean, just absolutely gigantic.

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Speaker 1: So good stuff happening for us right now in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna stick with the NFL. I've got three plays

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Speaker 1: all at one unit going, and this Washington Pittsburgh game

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Speaker 1: is a monster for me. It really is huge, and

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Speaker 1: I want to fade it. I want to fade it desperately,

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Speaker 1: but I'm not going to because I'm just gonna root

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Speaker 1: and try to ride the wave for one more day.

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Speaker 1: I'm actually glad that I got that, you know. Add

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Speaker 1: on discord bet add on wrong because kind of like

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Speaker 1: a team that's sixteen and oh right or fifteen and

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Speaker 1: oh like you need to lost before the playoffs. And

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Speaker 1: this today for me, in the Westgate Super Contest, the

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Speaker 1: Washington Football team, a five and oh mark is riding

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Speaker 1: on it. And when you're talking about the number of

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Speaker 1: teams that are left are in the reboot, a five

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Speaker 1: and oh day puts you in really prime position. In

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Speaker 1: particular because we are only going into the weekend, we

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Speaker 1: were only I believe two points behind second place. So

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Speaker 1: a five and oh mark. If the person that were

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Speaker 1: going up against, if they stumbled at all, went three

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Speaker 1: and two, or they took the Chiefs or whatever they

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Speaker 1: may have taken, we could be sitting here very close

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Speaker 1: to the top of the Westgate Super Contest reboot if

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Speaker 1: the Washington Football team comes through. So you got two

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Speaker 1: games here today, still got the bet. MGM offer the

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Speaker 1: one dollar money line bet on new accounts one dollar

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Speaker 1: on either team score touchdown and you will win one

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Speaker 1: hundred dollars in free bets if you use the promo

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Speaker 1: code Juice one one hundred when you sign up and

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Speaker 1: make that one dollar bet to win one hundred dollars

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Speaker 1: in free bets from bet MGM. Visit bet MGM for

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Speaker 1: terms and conditions. You must be twenty one years or older,

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Speaker 1: and you must be physically located in Colorado, Tennessee, Indiana,

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Speaker 1: New Jersey, or West Virginia. Please gambo responsibly. Gambling problem

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Speaker 1: called one hundred and five to two two forty seven

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Speaker 1: hundred in Colorado, one hundred gambler in New Jersey, in

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Speaker 1: West Virginia, or one hundred nine with it in Indiana.

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Speaker 1: All right, So you got the first game of the

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Speaker 1: day is Washington taking on Pittsburgh. Second game of the

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Speaker 1: day is Buffalo against San Francisco. Let's start with Washington

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Speaker 1: taking on Pittsburgh. So you got a couple of big

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Speaker 1: injuries here in this game for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Bud

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Speaker 1: Debrie is out for the year with a torn ACL.

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Speaker 1: Huge injury, gigantic, gigantic injury. Also from that defense, key

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Speaker 1: linebacker Devin Bush out for the year with a torn ACL.

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Speaker 1: So two of the most important cogs and that defense

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Speaker 1: for Pittsburgh is not going to be there, in particular,

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Speaker 1: their run stop defense not going to be there. On

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Speaker 1: the other side, we don't know about Marquise Pouncy. Okay,

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Speaker 1: he was placed on the injured Reserve COVID list, and

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Speaker 1: we don't know if he's going to be cleared. He's

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Speaker 1: not been cleared yet. He may not play tomorrow, so

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Speaker 1: they have more time to prep obviously, given where they

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Speaker 1: were with the Ravens were like right before kickoff they

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Speaker 1: found out that Pouncey couldn't play. But you've got Pouncy

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Speaker 1: who's out. He's the captain of the offensive line, captain

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Speaker 1: of the defense. Bud Dupree is out, plus Devan Bushes

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Speaker 1: out as well. Here for this Steelers defense and offense,

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Speaker 1: and Ben Roethlisberger is probable with a knee injury. Now

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Speaker 1: he's gonna dress and he's gonna play, but how limited

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Speaker 1: will he be? How effective will he be if he

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Speaker 1: can't move around. So you're going up against one of

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Speaker 1: the best defensive fronts in the entire NFL, led by

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Speaker 1: number two pick overall, Chase Young. Good luck getting after

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Speaker 1: or block in this defensive front. These guys get after

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Speaker 1: the quarterback. Washington's defense is legitimate, Okay. It is hard

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Speaker 1: to run on these guys. It's hard to pass on

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Speaker 1: these guys, and they are highly underrated in the defensive

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Speaker 1: front area with their sack potential and how much they

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Speaker 1: get after the quarterback Roethlisberger better be able to move.

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Speaker 1: All right, Washington is live to win this game. They

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Speaker 1: are live to win the game and stop the eleven

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Speaker 1: to zero run. So if you want to talk about

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Speaker 1: why the line is crashing, no Bush, big injury, no

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Speaker 1: Dupre big injury, no Pouncy and a probable banged up

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Speaker 1: Ben Roethlisberger here, Pittsburgh's defense has been very good. So

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Speaker 1: this comes down to Alex Smith and whether or not

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Speaker 1: Alex Smith makes mega mistakes. They can't turn the football

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Speaker 1: over if they run the ball effectively and they're an

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Speaker 1: okay running team. Not a great running team, but they're

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Speaker 1: an okay running if they can run the ball effectively,

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Speaker 1: if they can throw the ball downfield enough, and their

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Speaker 1: passing offense is okay, if they can figure out a

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Speaker 1: way to just keep the football away from Big Ben

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Speaker 1: and away from this offense, I think this Washington team's

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Speaker 1: got a real shot to win the game. Outright. I've

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Speaker 1: got this in the Westgate, I've got this in the circa,

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Speaker 1: I've got this in the DraftKings Washington plus seven and

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Speaker 1: a half. I bought the half a point. Okay, I

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Speaker 1: didn't play it early enough. I had it at six

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Speaker 1: and a half. I bought the half a point up

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Speaker 1: to minus one twenty. Depend on the book as to

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Speaker 1: the cost. I shopped around. I found minus one twenty.

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Speaker 1: But I took the seven to get off the six

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Speaker 1: and a half, so I don't get burned here. Plus

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Speaker 1: seven for a money bet one unit Washington plus seven

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Speaker 1: to go to Pittsburgh and to hang around. But if

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Speaker 1: you want to sprinkle on the money line, don't hate it, Okay.

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Speaker 1: I'm just gonna take the touchdown and hope that Washington

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Speaker 1: keeps it close. Hopefully they turned the football over stripsacks

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Speaker 1: and getting after Roethlisberger. I just think they've spent so

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Speaker 1: much capital on this off on this defensive line without

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Speaker 1: Pouncy and talking about a blitz happy team that can

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Speaker 1: really pressure the quarterback and cost problems Pittsburgh after playing

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Speaker 1: just a couple of days ago, turning right around having

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Speaker 1: to play Washington here on a Monday afternoon five pm

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Speaker 1: Eastern time, two pm Pacific time start for this football game.

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Speaker 1: I'm taking the points plus seven. Bite up to seven,

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Speaker 1: don't take the six and a half. Take the seven.

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Speaker 1: Let's not get burned on a hook, okay, but plus

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Speaker 1: seven for Washington at Pittsburgh, play number one, okay, play

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Speaker 1: number two on the second game. Is interesting because I

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Speaker 1: hate the Buffalo Bills. You guys know, I hate the

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Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills. But talking with my partner who is with

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Speaker 1: me in the circuit contest, this is one of the

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Speaker 1: games where he really stood up on a table four

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Speaker 1: and he believes that it should not be a pick them.

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Speaker 1: He believed that Buffalo at San Francisco because one Buffalo's better,

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Speaker 1: but two Buffalo's played in Glendale before, not making the

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Speaker 1: cross country trek if you will. But it's a fast track,

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Speaker 1: and the Bills have already gone there, and the Bills

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Speaker 1: have played pretty well there before. I remember they took

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Speaker 1: on Arizona in that crazy game at the end with

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Speaker 1: that Hail Mary. They scored thirty points in that game.

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Speaker 1: They lost at thirty two to thirty. So I mean,

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Speaker 1: I get it. And when you start looking at the numbers,

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Speaker 1: the Bills are eight and three, and yes, you could say,

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Speaker 1: well the fort nineers are getting healthy, and you know

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Speaker 1: they're not the ones traveling. This is a monster game

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Speaker 1: for the Buffalo Bills. Okay, they really need this. And

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Speaker 1: when I look at Buffalo and I'm looking at them

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Speaker 1: against the spread this year, I mean they've been fairly

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Speaker 1: good against the spread. They've covered the last three games

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Speaker 1: against the number. Against Seattle they were catching three, they

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Speaker 1: won by ten. Against Arizona they were catching three, they

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Speaker 1: lost by two. And against the Chargers they were laying

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Speaker 1: four and a half and they won by ten. So

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Speaker 1: you know, I don't like Josh Allen. You guys know this.

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Speaker 1: I am not a fan of Josh Allen by any

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Speaker 1: stretch of the imagination. But Nick Mullins, You guys riding

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Speaker 1: Nick Mullens, You guys feel good about riding Nick Mullins

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Speaker 1: because I'm not feeling all that confident in riding Nick

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Speaker 1: bleeping Mulleins here. Okay, And you know Sam fran is

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Speaker 1: five and six against the number. They Yeah, they covered

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Speaker 1: last week, and you said they're playing better. But I

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Speaker 1: think that's going to lead to some bias here. I

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Speaker 1: think it's why the number is not higher than this,

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Speaker 1: not higher than to pick them. And the Bills aren't

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Speaker 1: really being favored, but you know they are five point

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Speaker 1: favorites and they won by three. But in the games

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Speaker 1: before that, they were nine and a half point dogs

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Speaker 1: to New Orleans they lost by fourteen. They were six

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Speaker 1: point dogs to Green Bay they lost by seventeen. One

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Speaker 1: point dogs of Seattle they lost by ten. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I know they can run the football, and I know,

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Speaker 1: as I said, they are getting healthy. Err so that's good.

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Speaker 1: And they have some of the guys coming back that

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Speaker 1: were on the injured list, but they're still, you know,

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Speaker 1: pretty banged up. They're not could have Garoppola, lower Kittle.

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Speaker 1: You gonna have your big weapons if you will. Tevin

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Speaker 1: Coleman is probable. He's missed the past three games, but

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Speaker 1: he may play and come back. So that's significant in

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Speaker 1: the running attack here. So you know, maybe get some

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Speaker 1: more weapons back out there for San Francisco. But I

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Speaker 1: just think that this is a team in the Buffalo

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Speaker 1: Bills that I don't like them. I don't like Josh Allen,

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Speaker 1: But yeah, I'm gonna get behind Josh Allen here against

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Speaker 1: San Francisco in primetime and expect them to be able

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Speaker 1: to run the football effectively enough against the San Francius defense,

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Speaker 1: which is not easy to do, and throw the ball

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Speaker 1: with their key wide receivers and get the football out

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Speaker 1: to the right guys who can go and make plays.

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Speaker 1: Buffalo is number six in the NFL seven point five

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Speaker 1: yards per pass play, seventh in the NFL with two

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Speaker 1: hundred and sixty seven yards per game. Sam Fran tough

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Speaker 1: to throw on. They get Richards Sherman back, so that

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Speaker 1: could be difficult. They're gonna have Sherman. See who he

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Speaker 1: winds up guarding, probably you, I don't know. I'm not

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Speaker 1: sure which why do they put him on? But you

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Speaker 1: know he's back, so that significant. You know, one of

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Speaker 1: the leaders of that defense is back. But I think

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Speaker 1: Buffalo makes enough plays to win this game. I got

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Speaker 1: Buffalo in a Pickham situation. I got a bet on it,

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Speaker 1: and I've got a pick going here. I could wind

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Speaker 1: up if Washington covers and the Buffalo Bills win, I

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Speaker 1: got a five and oh mark in the circa. If

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Speaker 1: Washington covers, I got a five and o mark going

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Speaker 1: here for the Westgate. I just I can't fade it.

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Speaker 1: I want to. I want to fade it, but I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna bet it. I'm gonna trail my guy, my partner

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Speaker 1: and in the circa and hope that he's right about Buffalo.

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Speaker 1: He is adamant about the Bills winning this game. So

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Speaker 1: we're gonna go with the Bills here on a pick

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Speaker 1: them Bills against San Francisco and given just one quick

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Speaker 1: little psa. Given how hot I've been over the last

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Speaker 1: two days on the podcast nine to one, would it

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Speaker 1: shock me if I have a rough day to day? No,

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Speaker 1: it would not, Okay, But I'm just because these games

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Speaker 1: are all handicapped at the same time, I'm gonna hope

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Speaker 1: that the little mojo that I've been playing with here

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Speaker 1: carried over to Monday when I bet the games on Saturday,

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Speaker 1: hopefully carries over here into the plays for us on

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Speaker 1: a Monday. But are we due to lose a couple

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Speaker 1: of plays? Absolutely? Am I due to be wrong about

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Speaker 1: San Francisco and do to be wrong potentially about Pittsburgh? Absolutely?

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Speaker 1: So there is that concern for sure. I do have

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Speaker 1: that worry, that pit in my stomach going, should we

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Speaker 1: just fade it? You know, I've got the picks. Should

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Speaker 1: we bet against the picks? So we win either way?

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Speaker 1: And I'm just not gonna do that. I'm gonna trust

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Speaker 1: the handicapping and I'm gonna trust our breakdown of the games.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna go Washington plus seven Pittsburgh. Sorry, Bill's plus

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Speaker 1: on a pick on the Bills to win, and I

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Speaker 1: do have a third play. The third play is, well,

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Speaker 1: there's two games today, let's tease them. And thankfully Bills

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Speaker 1: are a pick so I can tease them. So I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna give Buffalo plus six, and I'm gonna take Washington

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Speaker 1: from six and a half and tease up to twelve

337
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Speaker 1: and a half and give Washington nearly two touchdowns. I

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00:18:10,000 --> 00:18:13,359
Speaker 1: cross seven and I cross ten, two key numbers. And

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Speaker 1: I hope that Washington keeps this game very, very close.

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Speaker 1: And if I'm right about Washington having a chance to

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Speaker 1: win the game, well I could hit on all three

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Speaker 1: of these bets potentially, or at least two of the

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Speaker 1: three if the legs come through. And then if the

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Speaker 1: Bills win or the Bills lose by a field goal,

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Speaker 1: you know, maybe we you know, it's one way of

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Speaker 1: kind of hedging our bet a little bit on the

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Speaker 1: Bills if they lose out a last second field goal attempt,

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Speaker 1: kind of like heartbreak the last time they were in

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Speaker 1: this building. You know, we get the plus six there

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Speaker 1: for the Buffalo bills, so three plays, three units bills

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Speaker 1: pick Washington plus seven. We're gonna buy it up out

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Speaker 1: of six and a half. We're gonna pay minus one

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Speaker 1: twenty juice and the two leg teaser bills plus six

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Speaker 1: and Washington plus twelve and a half at minus one

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Speaker 1: twenty five for us here today on a Monday. I'm

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00:19:00,280 --> 00:19:02,719
Speaker 1: not gonna play any prop bets, and I make if

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Speaker 1: I do play props, I'll tell you about it in

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Speaker 1: the in the discord chat, but not officially for the podcast,

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Speaker 1: because I've just not been great with props. When two

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Speaker 1: and two yesterday, I mean, Dan Harris is great at it.

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Speaker 1: I suck it at Fantasy football, Okay, and there's a

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Speaker 1: reason why I suck at it. I'm just not great

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Speaker 1: at props. I'm better at teams. I'm better at games.

364
00:19:21,480 --> 00:19:24,080
Speaker 1: I'm better at full units and being able to bet

365
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Speaker 1: over four quarters. It's just I'm not great at, you know,

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Speaker 1: breaking out one player or one situation and really drilling

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Speaker 1: down deep. I never found much success in you know,

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Speaker 1: playing dfs, so it's no shock I'm not doing incredibly

369
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Speaker 1: well with prop bets. I'm kind of treading water and

370
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Speaker 1: just paying juice out when I do it, So I'm

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Speaker 1: just gonna stick with what's working, and that's betting teasers

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Speaker 1: and sides and totals. So I'm not going to touch

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Speaker 1: the totals because of the weirdness of this game, you know,

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Speaker 1: the two games on Monday Night football and all the

375
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Speaker 1: travel and everything else. That's game Buffalo, San France and

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Speaker 1: you know in Glendelle, Arizona, which is really weird. So

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Speaker 1: I'm not touching the totals. We're just gonna take these games.

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Speaker 1: Washington plus seven, put plus seven Bill's on a pick

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Speaker 1: and a teaser, twelve and a half to Washington and

380
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Speaker 1: plus six to the Buffalo Bills on a Monday. We're

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Speaker 1: back on a Tuesday with another NFL game. I probably

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Speaker 1: will play prop bets in the Ravens game, just because

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Speaker 1: we only have one game to break down with the

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Speaker 1: Ravens going against Dallas coming up on a Tuesday. But

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Speaker 1: we have more NFL football, so we've got Monday, Tuesday,

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Speaker 1: and Thursday football games in the NFL to break down.

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Speaker 1: So Wednesday night college basketball, we're gon. We've got a

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Speaker 1: lot of things to get into, a lot of good

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Speaker 1: games to break down this week. My name is Matt Parolt,

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Speaker 1: follow me on Twitter at sports Talk Matt. Every morning,

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Speaker 1: it's the David Juice Podcast right here on bettingpros dot Com,

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Speaker 1: brought to you by BETAMGM