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Speaker 2: time is it? Game Time? Hi everybody, and welcome in.
Speaker 2: In about ten minutes, we'll have Chad Millman, which we
Speaker 2: do sharper square where I give him about seven or
Speaker 2: eight of my picks and he chews him up and
Speaker 2: spits him out. And I'm taking more and more favorites
Speaker 2: these days, as I think you do get to a
Speaker 2: point in the season where the better teams separate, the
Speaker 2: better coaches separate. Everybody gets banged up. It's a war
Speaker 2: of attrition at this point. You see all these players dropping.
Speaker 2: Sometimes DeVante Adams, the player goes out, comes back in.
Speaker 2: He did had a touchdown. So the Jets beat the
Speaker 2: Texans twenty one to thirteen on Hallowing. The Jets dressed
Speaker 2: up as a pretty good football team. Aaron Rodgers I
Speaker 2: thought played especially, you know, in the second half. I
Speaker 2: thought he played pretty well. I've seen that so many
Speaker 2: times this year where a quarterback brought Purtty against the
Speaker 2: Cowboys Russell Wilson a couple of times Aaron Rodgers tonight,
Speaker 2: where it just they just can't get it right in
Speaker 2: the first half and then they just they get warmed up.
Speaker 2: And I thought Aaron played a really good second half.
Speaker 2: You know, when you have Bresall, when you have Davonte Adams,
Speaker 2: when you have Garrett Wilson, you know, those are real weapons,
Speaker 2: you know, if you can get decent protection. Aaron had
Speaker 2: a nice run tonight. It got called back because of
Speaker 2: a holding on the rookie from Penn State, but that
Speaker 2: was a really nice run. He had two hundred and
Speaker 2: eleven yards, twenty two to thirty two, three tds, no picks.
Speaker 2: I like the Jets tonight. It was one of my
Speaker 2: stronger plays. It would have been my first or second
Speaker 2: strongest play if it was on Sunday. And I think
Speaker 2: the you know, the reality of this game. It was
Speaker 2: a really bad spot for a beat up Texans team
Speaker 2: that can't protect CJ. Stroud. So the Jets had eight
Speaker 2: sacks tonight, which is about double what teams have beginning
Speaker 2: against Houston. But they're you know, they're down to Tank
Speaker 2: Dell and a bunch of third and fourth level receivers.
Speaker 2: So it was a good spot for the Jets. And
Speaker 2: what's interesting for the Jets, and this is why this
Speaker 2: win matters. So, yeah, two of their wins a short
Speaker 2: week at home Patriots and Texans. But now think about this,
Speaker 2: it's an advantage because the Jets are not going to
Speaker 2: win a division. We know the Bills are going to
Speaker 2: win the division. The Ravens will eventually win their division,
Speaker 2: the Chiefs will win their Division Colts, Texans will go
Speaker 2: back and fourth. But this is key the teams. The
Speaker 2: Jets only hope to get into the playoffs is as
Speaker 2: a wild card team, and right now, unless they go
Speaker 2: on a losing streak, Pittsburgh looks like it will be
Speaker 2: one of those wild card teams. But there's two other
Speaker 2: wild card spots. And the good news is the Jags
Speaker 2: could be one of those teams the Jets play them.
Speaker 2: The Colts could be one of those teams Jets host
Speaker 2: them in a couple of weeks. The Texans could be
Speaker 2: one of those teams. The Jets just beat them. So
Speaker 2: it looks like to me the three playoff teams in
Speaker 2: the AFC we know are Bills, Ravens will make it.
Speaker 2: They're just too good unless Lamar got hurt, and the Chiefs,
Speaker 2: and then you're going to be battling the Colts, the Jags,
Speaker 2: the Texans, the Chargers, the Steelers for three wild card spots.
Speaker 2: And you've already got a w over the Texans and
Speaker 2: you get the Colts at home. You also get the
Speaker 2: advantage when you play on Thursday night, you get four
Speaker 2: days extra rest against your next opponent that's Arizona. So
Speaker 2: they'll have to travel out to the desert in Arizona,
Speaker 2: but you got extra rest. Arizona plays a very physical
Speaker 2: Chicago Bears team, a really good defense for the Chicago
Speaker 2: Bears off a humiliating loss. So I'm sure the Bears,
Speaker 2: you know, that's gonna be a physical game against Arizona.
Speaker 2: You're gonna be more rested, more prepared. With a veteran
Speaker 2: quarterback and Aaron Rodgers coming off a very good outing.
Speaker 2: The more he plays with the Vonte Adams, the veteran,
Speaker 2: it's gonna work. So they've got the pieces. I don't
Speaker 2: think they're a brilliantly coached team, but I've said this before.
Speaker 2: There's three really good teams in the AFC. Then you
Speaker 2: know it's pretty mushy in the wild card race. Miami's
Speaker 2: not as good as we thought. Chargers just they have
Speaker 2: very limited firepower. Unless they make a trade at the deadline,
Speaker 2: the Chargers are going to be in a bunch of
Speaker 2: close games. If they played the Jets tomorrow, it would
Speaker 2: be a close game. I mean, the Chargers just can't
Speaker 2: They can't beat anybody badly. They don't have any playmakers.
Speaker 2: Lad mcconkee, the rookie is like a two. He's twitchy
Speaker 2: and clever, but he's not a burner. He's not an
Speaker 2: over the top guy. Doesn't have huge separation in the NFL.
Speaker 2: So I mean, it's what do I think about the Jets. Well,
Speaker 2: they ran for about one hundred yards tonight, Aaron was comfortable,
Speaker 2: Aaron had time to throw, and the schedule works out
Speaker 2: extra rest for Arizona, Colt Seattle at home, Rams later
Speaker 2: at home. I mean, only one team the Jets play
Speaker 2: the rest of the way right now has a winning record,
Speaker 2: the Buffalo Bills, and they're not one of the divisions,
Speaker 2: so they don't have to worry about Buffalo. So it's
Speaker 2: all right in front of you.
Speaker 3: Listen.
Speaker 2: I like CJ. Stroud, but he's down to second and
Speaker 2: third tier receivers. They can't protect him. Joe Mixon's a
Speaker 2: hell of a player. That was his number one weapon tonight.
Speaker 2: But the Jets win twenty one to thirteen. And you know,
Speaker 2: I was thinking about this. I was talking to Jmack
Speaker 2: on the phone tonight. He was out with kids doing Halloween.
Speaker 2: So I live in a place without a lot of
Speaker 2: kids coming up, So I went out for a walk
Speaker 2: and saw the kids in the neighborhood out having a
Speaker 2: good time. But when I came back, I was talking
Speaker 2: to Jmac and you know, New York has just had
Speaker 2: a really rough stretch for a decade in sport. I mean,
Speaker 2: the Yankees, it really wasn't competitive against the Dodgers. It
Speaker 2: really wasn't they won a single game. Both the Padres
Speaker 2: and the Mets matched up better against the Dodgers than
Speaker 2: the Yankees did. The Yankees won one game, and it
Speaker 2: was a bullpen game by the Dodgers. They went on
Speaker 2: and too in the games in which Garrett Cole pitched.
Speaker 2: They're just they're just, you know again, they beat they
Speaker 2: can beat the Guardians, but the Yankees, they just don't
Speaker 2: match up to the Dodgers, and the Dodgers were beat up.
Speaker 2: They'll be a significantly better and healthier team next year.
Speaker 2: The Giants and the Jets, at least one of them
Speaker 2: has Aaron Rodgers and Quentin Williams. You know, the Knicks
Speaker 2: are a nice story, but I don't think they're in
Speaker 2: the class of the Celtics. So it's it's been rough.
Speaker 2: I mean, it's it's you know, the Mets have a
Speaker 2: rich owner and Francisco Lindoor is a remarkable player. But
Speaker 2: they have good players and one great player, So I
Speaker 2: mean they people. You know, you think to yourself, God,
Speaker 2: why does anybody care about the Jets if you're in
Speaker 2: New York? I mean because of Devonte Adams and and
Speaker 2: and Garrett Wilson and Aaron Rodgers. You know, they have
Speaker 2: their moments and like in the second half tonight, they
Speaker 2: have their moments where they look competitive. So you know,
Speaker 2: here's the good news for New York Colts, Jags, Texans,
Speaker 2: all these teams that they can make up ground and
Speaker 2: if they beat him head to head in the wild
Speaker 2: card race and the AFC, I don't think they're going
Speaker 2: to get there. I'll still stand by my prediction. I
Speaker 2: think they're an eight or nine win team. But I
Speaker 2: do think DeVante Adams like tonight in that second half,
Speaker 2: and you can see the more he and Aaron play together.
Speaker 2: And what I really liked about Aaron tonight is he
Speaker 2: was really into it. He was really into it. He
Speaker 2: had good energy in the second half. He was pumping
Speaker 2: his fist, he was fired up. And that's what you
Speaker 2: worry about with Aaron. He can be a very moody guy,
Speaker 2: and I've said he I had an NFL coach tell
Speaker 2: him a pretty famous NFL coach won't say he's just
Speaker 2: Jay Cutler with talent, is that he's kind of a moody, prickly,
Speaker 2: difficult guy. The difference is Aaron can really, when he
Speaker 2: has time to throw, really can spin it. And tonight
Speaker 2: he was in a groove. He had great energy, He
Speaker 2: played inspired and it was fun to watch. The first
Speaker 2: ALB wasn't fun, but twenty one to thirteen Jets win,
Speaker 2: and it's something. Eight sacks ran the ball effectively. Aaron
Speaker 2: had a good night. Now you have extra prep time
Speaker 2: against the Arizona Cardinals. I love this time in the
Speaker 2: NFL season because it does feel like the games get
Speaker 2: a little bit easier to predict, just because it's statistically
Speaker 2: defenses get hurt more than offenses, and you know, so
Speaker 2: you get a separation. Now you get some finger pointing
Speaker 2: in the bad locker rooms. The quarterbacks and the best
Speaker 2: coaches feel like they separate. I don't think the Jets
Speaker 2: have one of the better coach teams, but I do
Speaker 2: think offensively, and that's what this lead. Nobody's stopping anybody defensively.
Speaker 2: I still think the Jets miss Robert saw on that end.
Speaker 2: But offensively, you got to be able to score. And
Speaker 2: you start looking at the Jets pieces. If Aaron's healthy,
Speaker 2: it's something that it's better than the Giants. I mean,
Speaker 2: there are a lot of teams in worse shape than
Speaker 2: Aaron Rodgers, Breese Hall, a decent backup, Alan the Kid
Speaker 2: from Wisconsin, Garrett Wilson, and Davontae Adams. There are a
Speaker 2: lot of teams in much worse shape than that. And
Speaker 2: and this point forward, the offenses winning this league. I mean,
Speaker 2: you go look at January and February the last three
Speaker 2: or four years, it's the offenses that separate. Nobody's stopping
Speaker 2: anybody late. Everybody's all thinged up on that side of
Speaker 2: the ball. Listen, don't bail on CJ.
Speaker 1: Stroud.
Speaker 2: His last three games, he has a seventy six passer rating.
Speaker 2: You're dealing with second tier wide receivers and there's no protection.
Speaker 2: And this is like it's like Sam Donald. You look
Speaker 2: at him with the Jets and you're like he's terrible,
Speaker 2: and then you're like, oh, he goes to Minnesota and
Speaker 2: he has a good coach, and he has good protection,
Speaker 2: and he has weapons and got Sam Donald's pretty good.
Speaker 2: It's amazing how it looks. You go watch Brock Prudy
Speaker 2: without Christian McCaffrey, Deebo, Samuel's banged up, and you're like, ah,
Speaker 2: what is he? Well, you know, all of a sudden
Speaker 2: second half last week, he's moving. You know, you watch
Speaker 2: Brock pretty Now as Jennings gets healthy and McCaffrey comes back,
Speaker 2: you're gonna look at him and go, oh, he's pretty Folks.
Speaker 2: There's like one or two guys in this league. Lamar Jackson,
Speaker 2: Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes are about it where it doesn't
Speaker 2: really matter who's healthy and who's not. That's about it.
Speaker 1: CJ.
Speaker 2: Stroud He hasn't reached his peak yet. He'll probably reaches
Speaker 2: he'll go into his prime after next season. This is
Speaker 2: year two, next year, year three, year four to year
Speaker 2: nine to ten, six years prime, won't have many surgeries
Speaker 2: at that point. Still fresh now knows the game, knows
Speaker 2: the coverages. He hadn't even reached this prime yet. So
Speaker 2: you've got like second and third tier receivers, terrible protection,
Speaker 2: and it's a defensive head coach. So you know he's
Speaker 2: got a coordinator. But if that coordinator leaves that's not
Speaker 2: ideal Bobby Slowick. So you know, I just there's three
Speaker 2: guys in the world that it doesn't really matter. They're
Speaker 2: just going to be wildly productive Mahomes Alan Lamar. For
Speaker 2: guys like c J. Stroud, he's closer to a Sam Donald.
Speaker 2: I think he's a better thrower with the football than
Speaker 2: Sam Darnold, and he's a better athlete and a bigger,
Speaker 2: stronger version of Rock Purty. But in the end, there's
Speaker 2: the three greats and then a lot of these guys.
Speaker 2: It's just circumstantial, and he'll be fine when they get
Speaker 2: Nico Collins back. Nico Collins is uncoverable and they get
Speaker 2: their offensive line straightened out. But don't sell any stock.
Speaker 2: We've seen this kid when he has support and he's
Speaker 2: really good. Everybody in this league. You know, Baker Mayfield
Speaker 2: has Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Oh, he's pretty good,
Speaker 2: and they get hurt. He's not as good. He just
Speaker 2: lost to Atlanta. That's the way it works for ninety
Speaker 2: percent of the quarterbacks in this league. Does your favorite
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Speaker 2: Time for an ender edition of Sharper Square with Chad Millman,
Speaker 2: the co host of the Favorites. All odds provided by DraftKings.
Speaker 2: I felt pretty good about my picks, I said in
Speaker 2: week six or seven, I start to just go with quarterbacks.
Speaker 2: I think defenses get statistically more beat up, more injured.
Speaker 2: Quarterbacks are even more important. Teams in locker rooms move
Speaker 2: off players, more finger pointing. The better cultures win, the
Speaker 2: better coaches win, the better quarterbacks win. So there's a
Speaker 2: couple of big favorites I like this weekend, and they
Speaker 2: don't normally do that. Let's go to the underdogs though,
Speaker 2: Dolphins plus six at the Bills. I like Miami. Okay,
Speaker 2: So this has been a series dominated by Buffalo, no question,
Speaker 2: but they've played very good. They're really feeling themselves. They
Speaker 2: travel cross country. Now it's back Miami. Two is the
Speaker 2: first game back off of concussion. They actually controlled that game,
Speaker 2: led by ten in the fourth. Usually quarterbacks off concussions
Speaker 2: don't play great in the first week, second week, third week,
Speaker 2: fourth week. You see improvement division rival game really like
Speaker 2: Miami plus the point sharper square.
Speaker 1: Look, it's flipped. It opened at six, moved up to
Speaker 1: six and a half. The wise guys liked Buffalo at
Speaker 1: six and a half, and there's been a lot of
Speaker 1: wise guy money moving this back down to six. It
Speaker 1: might even get down to five and a half before kickoff.
Speaker 1: So wise guys are on your side here. They like Miami,
Speaker 1: they like two where they want to fade the Bills
Speaker 1: because they've been playing so well. I will tell you,
Speaker 1: I'll give you the other side of that argument, because
Speaker 1: I've bet Buffalo at minus six, I will be against
Speaker 1: the wise guys. I might be against you two. I
Speaker 1: want to give everybody the opportunity to hear both sides.
Speaker 1: Tua is terrible against teams that are good that are
Speaker 1: on the road, Okay, two and ten straight up, three
Speaker 1: eight to one against the spread away from home versus
Speaker 1: winning teams. In his NFL career with the Dolphins. Also,
Speaker 1: the Bills offense has been top three in the league
Speaker 1: across the majority of metrics, superficial, advanced metrics, whatever you
Speaker 1: want to do when it comes to rushing the ball.
Speaker 1: The Dolphins are a terrible tackling team. So from a
Speaker 1: matchup perspective and a history perspective, I think the Bills
Speaker 1: have an advantage. But the Wise guys, they like what
Speaker 1: they saw. They feel like two of the second game
Speaker 1: back after the concussion, he's going to be better. They
Speaker 1: feel like this Buffalo team it's a little bit too high.
Speaker 1: It's inflated because of how well the Bills have been playing.
Speaker 1: So wise guys are with you, Colin, but I'm not okay.
Speaker 2: So I like Arizona minus one and a half at home.
Speaker 2: First of all, Matt eber Flus is the worst road
Speaker 2: coach in the league. Terrible. Secondly, Arizona is better. Their
Speaker 2: personnel offensively is the best kept secret in the league.
Speaker 2: I love Connor the back, McBride the tight end. Harrison
Speaker 2: now is getting more consistent. He's a dog kyler Murray
Speaker 2: in the second half was outstanding. And I never trust
Speaker 2: this team's consistency and maturity. But I like the staff.
Speaker 2: I like their fight Chicago. If you start looking at Chicago,
Speaker 2: they unraveled last week. They really did. They were lucky
Speaker 2: to be in a position to lose by hail Mary.
Speaker 2: Arizona's a good home team. Eber Flu's awful on the road.
Speaker 2: Arizona minus one and a half. Sharper square.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's sharp ish, like if the wise guys are
Speaker 1: playing anything here, they're playing Arizona, but it's not primary
Speaker 1: in the games. They're betting. A lot of wise guys
Speaker 1: I talked to, they kind of want to pass on
Speaker 1: this game. In a perfect world, in a vacuum, they
Speaker 1: bet on the Bears. The Bears are more talented offensively.
Speaker 1: They're a really good defensive team, and they're really good
Speaker 1: at rushing the passer, and they're really good in coverage.
Speaker 1: Now the challenge for the Bears is Montes Sweat didn't
Speaker 1: practice on Wednesday. Has an injured shin. We don't know
Speaker 1: what his status will be. They're ten and five with
Speaker 1: Montes Sweat since he joined the team. Okay, number one,
Speaker 1: that's really good for pass rush. Number two, Braxton Jones
Speaker 1: there left tackle. He probably isn't going to play. Did
Speaker 1: not practice this week. They were terrible when he left
Speaker 1: the game last week. Caleb was running for his life,
Speaker 1: and then they got worse when Braxton Jones backup came
Speaker 1: in and Braxton Jones backup is not going to be
Speaker 1: playing this week, so they're scraping the bottom of the
Speaker 1: barrel there. But here's what's interesting about Kyler. Kyler is
Speaker 1: great in the chaos and what the Bears would create
Speaker 1: and what their strength is is creating chaos for quarterbacks
Speaker 1: because they are so good at rushing the passer and
Speaker 1: so good in coverage. So kyler strengths actually plays to
Speaker 1: the Bear strength, which is another reason why the wise
Speaker 1: guys aren't quite looking to rush to bet this game.
Speaker 1: And like you, eberflus Man, and I can't imagine you
Speaker 1: don't have a theory on this, but as a Bears fan,
Speaker 1: why draft Kaleb Williams and then keep a coach who's
Speaker 1: a defensive coach who if he doesn't do well this year,
Speaker 1: you know you're going to get rid of then you're
Speaker 1: going to bring in a new coach. And you've basically
Speaker 1: wasted a year and created bad habits for Caleb Williams. Right,
Speaker 1: So now all of a sudden, ebra flus is basically
Speaker 1: throwing his team under the bus, saying we practiced this
Speaker 1: play the Hail Mary every single week. I don't know
Speaker 1: why the guys didn't do it right. That hasn't sat well,
Speaker 1: so people don't know what they're going to get with
Speaker 1: the Bears this week.
Speaker 2: Okay, you know I love the magic number four, four
Speaker 2: and a half and five. I take the favorites. Washington
Speaker 2: thoroughly outplayed Chicago, and Chicago's a pretty decent team. The Giants, now,
Speaker 2: as we talked about no Andrew Thomas Daniel Jones visibly
Speaker 2: frustrated during the week two point conversion against the Steelers.
Speaker 2: They're off him. Everybody in the building knows that. It
Speaker 2: just feels like a horrible environment. The owner has supported
Speaker 2: the GM and the coach, the quarterback. I think Washington's
Speaker 2: a really good team. I think they're for real. I
Speaker 2: think now Jaden Daniels is healthier. I didn't feel he
Speaker 2: was at one hundred percent last weekend. I would take
Speaker 2: Washington minus four. I know it's a division rivalry game.
Speaker 2: Sharper Square.
Speaker 1: No, the wise guys are with you. They're they're betting
Speaker 1: on Washington and it's a Normally they wouldn't right a
Speaker 1: division game. Right, You're getting a home dog at more
Speaker 1: than a field goal, you want to bet the home dog.
Speaker 1: And we've got other games in which that is a
Speaker 1: scenario this week, but right now, like three and a
Speaker 1: half for a team that has lost its left tackle.
Speaker 1: He was the only reason that you ever felt comfortable
Speaker 1: betting on this team because he was so good at
Speaker 1: stabilizing that line. And now Tyrone Tracy, who has really
Speaker 1: been an offensive weapon out of the backfield for them,
Speaker 1: the running back out of Purdue, he had a concussion,
Speaker 1: not likely to play. You're right about Daniel Jones. I
Speaker 1: think it's only a matter of time before they give
Speaker 1: him the hook because they owe him, you know, twenty
Speaker 1: three million dollars if he gets injured next season. So
Speaker 1: I think pretty soon this experiment with Danny Dimes is
Speaker 1: going to end.
Speaker 2: Okay, I think the Rams are really a good football
Speaker 2: team when healthy. In fact, if you go back to
Speaker 2: last year when Stafford, Kyron Williams, Pooka, and Cooper Cup
Speaker 2: play their seven and three in their losses at Detroit
Speaker 2: and overtime at Baltimore in overtime, offensive coach and Matt
Speaker 2: Stafford played on Thursday extra time to prepare. They only
Speaker 2: have to give up one at Seattle. This is a
Speaker 2: coach and a quarterback mismatch. They are now healthier and
Speaker 2: like the Packers offensively. The Rams defensively are crazy young
Speaker 2: young teams grow. They become better and better every few weeks.
Speaker 2: The Packers offense just getting better every two games. This
Speaker 2: Rams defense is high draft picks, hungry, no stars, fast, young,
Speaker 2: and collectively very good. The Rams put away the Seahawks.
Speaker 1: Here Sharper Square, Colin, You and I right now are
Speaker 1: going into the foxhold on the Los Angeles Rams. The
Speaker 1: wise guys hate this bet. The Rams opened it as
Speaker 1: one and a half point underdogs. They are now almost
Speaker 1: two and a half point favorites. The wise guys they
Speaker 1: love Seattle at two and a half. I'm with you
Speaker 1: and Simon Hunter and my co host, he's with you,
Speaker 1: like we feel like we are alone in the foxhol
Speaker 1: betting this game, and we don't see what other people
Speaker 1: are seeing in Seattle. You've said this before. Sean McVay.
Speaker 1: For all the bells and whistles, all the motion on
Speaker 1: this team, he likes to run the ball. And Kyen
Speaker 1: Williams has been a top five running back in the
Speaker 1: NFL the past season and the half and he has
Speaker 1: been amazing since this season began, especially against team like Seattle,
Speaker 1: which are bottom third in all the rushing staff that matter.
Speaker 1: They're total rushing yards yards per carry EPA per rush
Speaker 1: like they are not a very good rush defense, They're
Speaker 1: still a team that's developing its talent. Hookah's back. He's
Speaker 1: a great run blocker. You saw that last week. He's
Speaker 1: just so freaking big Cooper cup back. Stafford is great
Speaker 1: in these situations. He's a quarterback at the end of
Speaker 1: the day. Like you've said, there are quarterbacks that you
Speaker 1: just don't want to bet against. And sometimes I make
Speaker 1: my decisions about who I want to bet on based
Speaker 1: on how uncomfortable am I going to be if I
Speaker 1: am betting the other side and this quarterback has the
Speaker 1: ball in the last two minutes. Matthew Stafford's top five
Speaker 1: on that list. So you and I brother, if it's
Speaker 1: in the blazon, you're going to be in a foxhole.
Speaker 1: I'm going to be in the foxhole. Will be in
Speaker 1: it together.
Speaker 2: There's a couple of games that are fascinating to me.
Speaker 2: First of all, I don't know if it's a stay
Speaker 2: away game. I think I would take the Vikings at
Speaker 2: home minus five against the Colts because they're making a
Speaker 2: quarterback change. Also, I think the Vikings I think the
Speaker 2: Rams on the road and the Lions, those offenses and
Speaker 2: those coaching staffs can make teams look very bad. And
Speaker 2: I think Minnesota's defense, if you go back three weeks,
Speaker 2: we thought it was pretty good. I think they need
Speaker 2: to redeem themselves before they get into division play. I
Speaker 2: think this is a good spot for them. I think
Speaker 2: they have a quarterback advantage. I think both coaches are
Speaker 2: really good, but in this spot with a quarterback change,
Speaker 2: I think Minnesota has to get right. There's real urgency
Speaker 2: here before they get to the Green Bays, the Detroit's,
Speaker 2: the Chicago's in their schedule. I would take the Vikings
Speaker 2: minus five sharper square.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the wise guys have been betting the Colts. They
Speaker 1: bet them at six, they bet them at five and
Speaker 1: a half. If it's down to five, it means they
Speaker 1: bet them again. The Colt situation is incredibly confusing. Shane
Speaker 1: Steken kind of intimated that this was coming from ownership, right,
Speaker 1: Like you look at Anthony Richardson, Completion percentage is not
Speaker 1: a very good way to judge developing quarterback. And there's
Speaker 1: been a lot of great analysis this week about if
Speaker 1: you analyze each one of his throws. He's making the
Speaker 1: choices that are the lower percentage throw but the higher
Speaker 1: ROI if they're completed versus eight yard outs that won't
Speaker 1: get you the first down, or twenty yard outs that
Speaker 1: will get you the first down. And so there's decisions
Speaker 1: being made there. And Shane Steichen, I'm a huge fan
Speaker 1: as a coach. The wise guys are on this game
Speaker 1: because when it became Flacco, they sort of felt a
Speaker 1: little bit more comfortable that he can manage Brian Flores
Speaker 1: defense and anything this guy throws at him. And don't forget,
Speaker 1: the Colts have an elite rushing game. And we talked
Speaker 1: about this last week. It's why I like the Colts
Speaker 1: against the Texans last week. If you have a really
Speaker 1: good coach who's a good play caller, and you have
Speaker 1: an elite unit and you're a decent sized underdog, I'm
Speaker 1: going to make that play. And that game played out
Speaker 1: exactly as we expected it to play out with the Colts.
Speaker 1: They dominated on the ground right and they had so
Speaker 1: that Jonathan Taylor had more than one hundred yards rushing
Speaker 1: in his first game back. They ran six point two
Speaker 1: yards per carry. Like they will rely on the running
Speaker 1: game they'll find ways to potentially keep this game close.
Speaker 1: So feels a little bit trappy to bet the Vikings.
Speaker 1: It's not going to be a game that I'm invested
Speaker 1: in it all.
Speaker 2: Okay, here's a game that I would never bet. You know,
Speaker 2: I take the big number off the board. People try
Speaker 2: to talk to me in the Lions Titans should have
Speaker 2: won't do it. Ravens at home minus nine and a
Speaker 2: half now, Lamar has taken a couple practices off the
Speaker 2: Ravens by adding another receiver are telling you, listen, we
Speaker 2: don't have Kansas City's defense or Buffalo's. We're going to
Speaker 2: win by scoring. They want to ramp up this offense.
Speaker 2: Their weakness is the back end, over the top. You
Speaker 2: can beat them and Mahomes and Josh Allen might, Herbert might.
Speaker 2: Bo Nicks isn't. That's not how they're built. He's not
Speaker 2: a big deep ball thrower. He's more agile, mobile underneath.
Speaker 2: Raven's weakness is not going to be exploited by Denver.
Speaker 2: This is a tough spot. Raven's off a loss again.
Speaker 2: Baltimore on most Sundays the last two years has been
Speaker 2: the knockout artist in this league, blasting teams at home,
Speaker 2: not beating them, blasting Niners Miami like Detroit. This is
Speaker 2: a number, all swallow Ravens nine and a half. I
Speaker 2: know I am as square as a lego.
Speaker 1: Right, Not this week, brother, not this week. Like last week.
Speaker 1: I tried to get you on the Lions. I love
Speaker 1: the Lions, and like that was a no brainer from
Speaker 1: the get go. It didn't matter what the number was
Speaker 1: going to be. We were betting Lions the Ravens. The
Speaker 1: wise guys are coming in on the Ravens. And it's
Speaker 1: a little bit tricky because Denver's defense is peers, right,
Speaker 1: get great pass rush, great pass rush, great against the run,
Speaker 1: like their front four is phenomenal. But you can also
Speaker 1: look at it and say they've played not very good teams.
Speaker 1: They've had a relatively easy schedule, weaker quarterbacks, weaker quarterbacks. Right,
Speaker 1: you can look at you can look at the Ravens
Speaker 1: and say, okay, they should be dominating, but they laid
Speaker 1: every they let every team back into it. And look
Speaker 1: at what Jamis did last week. Look at what Jaden Daniels.
Speaker 1: The Ravens were up by ten, they spread was seven
Speaker 1: and a half. The Commanders lost that game by seven
Speaker 1: because the Ravens let Jaden Daniels get back into it.
Speaker 1: We've seen it week after week after week. The Ravens
Speaker 1: give up seventeen point three points per game in the
Speaker 1: second half this year. That is the worst in the NFL.
Speaker 1: Only the Titans are at thirty one. It's like those
Speaker 1: two and last week they were tied, and so the
Speaker 1: Raven's number got worse this week and the Titans number,
Speaker 1: after giving fifty two points, got better. That's how bad
Speaker 1: the Ravens back end has been. If you watched that
Speaker 1: game last week, Ross Tucker, who's a great broadcaster and
Speaker 1: really good podcaster, he talked about like you look on
Speaker 1: film and every single week this Ravens defense, the back end,
Speaker 1: they look confused and they're communicating and trying to get
Speaker 1: it right while the play is being called and while
Speaker 1: the ball is being snapped. So it's a huge gamble
Speaker 1: literally to take the Ravens at this big in number.
Speaker 1: You gotta believe that boon Nicks won't be able to
Speaker 1: go over the top in the same way. And you
Speaker 1: know Sean Payton is going to have him sling it
Speaker 1: like he's he's playing him like he's a fourth year pro.
Speaker 1: So it's risky, but the wise guys are on it.
Speaker 1: If you want to be on it, I can't walk
Speaker 1: you off it.
Speaker 2: Okay. So the game that's most interesting to me every game.
Speaker 2: Every week, I pick a game and I want you
Speaker 2: to convince me. So my natural thing is even off
Speaker 2: of bye, Dallas just doesn't deliver much to the field
Speaker 2: off of by against the San Francisco defense without Dray
Speaker 2: green Law not really playing particularly well, some top starters out,
Speaker 2: they couldn't generate much offense and they were dominated once
Speaker 2: you went off script in the third quarter and adjusted
Speaker 2: by the Niners. So I just don't like Dallas. Every
Speaker 2: part of my being loves Atlanta minus two and a
Speaker 2: half three every part. But Atlanta is off a very
Speaker 2: very competitive divisional game, highly emotional game, and I can
Speaker 2: see them coming back down the earth. I can see Dallas. Remember,
Speaker 2: Atlanta offers no pressure. Guys like Dak and Gino Smith
Speaker 2: with time to throw are usually really effective. So my
Speaker 2: gut feeling is Atlanta's the side. I picked Atlanta to
Speaker 2: be the number one seed in the NFC with twelve
Speaker 2: to thirteen wins. I love them, but something tells me
Speaker 2: Dallas is the side.
Speaker 1: Here Dallas is where the wise guys are. And this
Speaker 1: number gets to three, it gets bet down to two
Speaker 1: and a half, it gets bet back up to three,
Speaker 1: goes down to two and a half. The wise guys
Speaker 1: definitely like the Cowboys here. It's a little strange, you know,
Speaker 1: the Falcons. Kirk Cousins is basically run up his numbers
Speaker 1: thrown against the Buccaneers and the Panthers. That's how he's
Speaker 1: made had such a good year, and like he's played,
Speaker 1: honest to guy, He's throwing like eight touchdowns and thrown
Speaker 1: for eight hundred yards against the Buccaneers, and so you
Speaker 1: look at those numbers, you're like, oh my god, he's
Speaker 1: a Maybe he finally made Kyle Pitts look like what
Speaker 1: everyone has been drooling about from a fantasy point of
Speaker 1: view for the past three or four years. But against
Speaker 1: regular teams, they're generally mediocre, and so the question becomes,
Speaker 1: especially against teams that can cover and they can rush
Speaker 1: the passer. So the question you have to ask yourself
Speaker 1: is is Micah Parsons going to play? Because without Micah Parsons,
Speaker 1: the Cowboys can't rush the passer. That is, you know,
Speaker 1: part of the phrase and Achilles Heel for Kirk Cousins.
Speaker 1: He's not very good against coverage right now. Is Deron
Speaker 1: Bland going to play? He practiced this week the Cowboys cornerback.
Speaker 1: If so, the Cowboys are much much better in coverage.
Speaker 1: Dak Prescott is basically a mal Santa at this point.
Speaker 1: Like he does not move inside the pocket, right he
Speaker 1: just sits for four hours. The guy's just sitting there
Speaker 1: giving away gifts to Cede Lamb. If he is able
Speaker 1: to do that against a team like the Falcons they
Speaker 1: can't get any pressure, then yeah, he's gonna slice them up.
Speaker 1: Cowboys have no running game. They can't stop their run.
Speaker 1: It is so ugly, it will be so uncomfortable. Everything
Speaker 1: about these teams says fraud. So you're really just deciding
Speaker 1: I'm betting on the underdog as a fraud.
Speaker 2: Okay, there's always a game or two I missed. I
Speaker 2: have a feeling Chargers Browns could be one of them.
Speaker 2: I would be prone to bet against Cleveland after a win.
Speaker 2: That would be my gut feeling. Is that one of
Speaker 2: the games I missed.
Speaker 1: Well, certainly, it's a game that a lot of wise
Speaker 1: guys are talking about, and they have been betting on Cleveland.
Speaker 1: This number has moved down. I think it was at
Speaker 1: two and a half and no, down to two, now
Speaker 1: down to one and a half. I'm with you, man,
Speaker 1: I don't get it. And this is what makes betting
Speaker 1: so interesting, right because you have to decide when are
Speaker 1: you selling. It's like the market. Are you selling? Are
Speaker 1: you going to hold on for one week too long?
Speaker 1: Are you going to lose ten to twenty percent of
Speaker 1: your value? Or are you getting out at the peak.
Speaker 1: Let's break down the Ravens and the Chargers as competition
Speaker 1: for Jamis. Let's break down Jamis as he played the
Speaker 1: Ravens last week. He was great, sliced him up. Also
Speaker 1: had a fumble at the end of the first half
Speaker 1: that put the Ravens in position to score the go
Speaker 1: ahead touchdown. Instead of being down six three, they're up
Speaker 1: ten to six. The play before he threw that dime
Speaker 1: to Cedric Tilman to win the game for the Ravens,
Speaker 1: he threw a gimme interception to Kyle Hamilton. The Kyle
Speaker 1: Hamilton dropped and there were three of those in that game, right,
Speaker 1: So now you go look at the Chargers. The Chargers
Speaker 1: have an elite run defense, they have a great playmaker
Speaker 1: and Justin Herbert, who doesn't turn the ball over, you
Speaker 1: know they are going to run the ball. Is Jameis
Speaker 1: Winston going to get away with the same mistakes. That
Speaker 1: is my concern in betting on the Browns. The wise
Speaker 1: guys are betting that Jamis will continue to find a
Speaker 1: way to be Jamis, and that because this offensive line
Speaker 1: is getting healthier, because this defense is getting healthier, because
Speaker 1: the game is in Cleveland, there's an upswing, there's still momentum.
Speaker 1: I'm not buying it. So if you want to pass
Speaker 1: on it, I get it. If you want to take
Speaker 1: the Chargers, I get it. The Charger's number is getting lower.
Speaker 1: It's a little trappy to take sort of the road dog,
Speaker 1: the road favorite in this spot. So it's not a
Speaker 1: huge play for me. But I will bet the Chargers.
Speaker 2: Anything else I missed.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll talk about the Lions and the Packers.
Speaker 2: Well, because I don't know if Jordan Love is gonna play.
Speaker 1: Doesn't matter. Don't care. As Jay Cutler says in the
Speaker 1: Urinal in Chicago, when someone tells them they went to Vanderbilt,
Speaker 1: don't care. I don't care. I'm betting the Packers at
Speaker 1: plus three and a half. And by the way, if
Speaker 1: Jordan Love isn't playing and it's Malik Willison, the number
Speaker 1: goes up to four four and a half. I'm still
Speaker 1: playing the Packers. Matt Lafleur is an elite, elite schemer.
Speaker 1: He has been amazing this season. Matt lefloor seventy percent
Speaker 1: against the spread when he is an underdog, and by
Speaker 1: the way, when he's an underdog of three or more
Speaker 1: points eighteen and four, you got Jared Goff who has
Speaker 1: a bocky ankle. You've got Jared Goff playing outdoors. You've
Speaker 1: got the Lions at peak value right now. You've got
Speaker 1: the Lions going against a Packers offensive line that is
Speaker 1: a fantastic pass blocking unit. And this will be the
Speaker 1: first time we really see the impact of not having
Speaker 1: Aiden Hutchinson to rush the passer. And by the way,
Speaker 1: Lake willis what has he done badly to not give
Speaker 1: us confidence? He Mett with fluor understands what he is
Speaker 1: getting into with that quarterback. This is a smash the
Speaker 1: smash spot for the Packers. I love the Packers here.
Speaker 2: Well, that's why you're a professional gambler, and I'm a radioshmuck.
Speaker 1: By the way. By the way, nobody knows nothing until
Speaker 1: the game is over. But I am definitely my toughest
Speaker 1: loss of the year I took. You know, I love
Speaker 1: the number four. I took green Bay against Jacksonville and
Speaker 1: they kneel before rushing in. That was rough, right, that
Speaker 1: was rough. I think I told you to take Jacksonville
Speaker 1: at three and a half.
Speaker 2: I know, but I honestly green Bay led. I felt
Speaker 2: like I was in the wrong. I felt like I
Speaker 2: was on the right. But the way I lost. I
Speaker 2: remember last year I lost a doint on the Saints.
Speaker 2: They like hit the crossbar maybe twice in that game.
Speaker 2: I felt like about once a year. I laugh. I
Speaker 2: don't get angry. I feel like you got to be
Speaker 2: kidding me. They led by I think ten At one
Speaker 2: point in the second half, they're going in running for
Speaker 2: the touchdown and the guy doesn't die of the two
Speaker 2: and I thought, well, okay, the experts, that's right.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's how it works out. By the way, that
Speaker 1: Jacksonville game was a joke. I was joking on the
Speaker 1: podcast this week. I hated the Jacksonville bet. I didn't
Speaker 1: want to make it. I thought it was a bad idea.
Speaker 1: I hate that team. I'm not impressed with them. Everything
Speaker 1: that we needed to go right in that game went right.
Speaker 1: It was a lucky, lucky win. But then you got
Speaker 1: to look at the Colts against the Texans, and either
Speaker 1: I got lucky, we got we got either we got
Speaker 1: really lucky with the Colts because the Texans were going
Speaker 1: to the very least kick a field goal late in
Speaker 1: the game. If Joe Mixon is ce J Shroud, don't
Speaker 1: botch the snap, don't botch the handoff, and the Colts
Speaker 1: recover and then you know they can go down and
Speaker 1: do their thing or the game ends at three. It
Speaker 1: wasn't going to go like that, But everything that leading
Speaker 1: led up to that made it feel like a great handicap.
Speaker 1: Everything with Jacksonville felt like a bad handicap, and we
Speaker 1: just got lucky in the end. But you sort of
Speaker 1: have to say to yourself, did I get lucky in
Speaker 1: both games? Or were both games a great handicap? So
Speaker 1: I'm going with they were genius ideas and I am
Speaker 1: hoping the same thing happens with the Packers.
Speaker 2: Sharper Square Chad Milman, co host of the Favorites All
Speaker 2: Odds provided by DraftKings.
Speaker 1: Thanks Buddy, see you Buddy, Joey Halloween.
Speaker 2: Thanks the volume, Thanks so much for listening. If you've
Speaker 2: enjoyed the podcast, take a moment, rate and review