1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:03,200 Speaker 1: The favorite podcast is presented by fan Duel sports Book. 2 00:00:03,360 --> 00:00:06,080 Speaker 1: There's no better place to bet the action than on 3 00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:10,160 Speaker 1: FanDuel Sports Book during the football season. There America's number 4 00:00:10,160 --> 00:00:12,400 Speaker 1: one sports book with an easy to use app that's 5 00:00:12,400 --> 00:00:15,440 Speaker 1: safe and secure, and when I win, I get paid 6 00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:18,800 Speaker 1: out in as little as two hours. And this season, 7 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:22,800 Speaker 1: fandel Sports Book is making betting easy for everyone with 8 00:00:22,840 --> 00:00:26,680 Speaker 1: great promos like risk free bets, enhanced odds markets, same 9 00:00:26,720 --> 00:00:30,280 Speaker 1: game parlays, and more. So if you're new, just download 10 00:00:30,280 --> 00:00:32,640 Speaker 1: the FanDuel Sports Book app to get started and sign 11 00:00:32,720 --> 00:00:36,200 Speaker 1: up with promo code Favorites so they know I sent 12 00:00:36,320 --> 00:00:38,920 Speaker 1: you. You You must be twenty one or older and president 13 00:00:38,920 --> 00:00:42,519 Speaker 1: in Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Tennessee, Virginia 14 00:00:42,720 --> 00:00:46,880 Speaker 1: or West Virginia. Gambling problem called one eight hundred next 15 00:00:47,040 --> 00:00:51,120 Speaker 1: step or text next step to five two in Arizona 16 00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:54,440 Speaker 1: one eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or 17 00:00:54,560 --> 00:00:59,400 Speaker 1: visit CCPG dot org slash chat in Connecticut one eight 18 00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:02,320 Speaker 1: hundred ambler or visit FanDuel dot com slash r G 19 00:01:02,760 --> 00:01:07,039 Speaker 1: in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey, Virginia one eight seven zero 20 00:01:07,240 --> 00:01:10,720 Speaker 1: seven seven for confidential help. In Michigan called the Tennessee 21 00:01:10,840 --> 00:01:14,600 Speaker 1: Red Line at one eight eight eight nine nine, or 22 00:01:14,880 --> 00:01:25,280 Speaker 1: visit one eight hundred Gambler dot net in West Virginia. 23 00:01:26,240 --> 00:01:30,360 Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. 24 00:01:30,400 --> 00:01:32,800 Speaker 1: I am Chad Nolman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. 25 00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:35,360 Speaker 1: It is Thursday. We've got a lot to discussed as 26 00:01:35,360 --> 00:01:37,800 Speaker 1: we get into divisional playoffs. We're going to go through 27 00:01:37,800 --> 00:01:40,160 Speaker 1: sharp calls. We're going to go through what we hope 28 00:01:40,200 --> 00:01:42,399 Speaker 1: will be a big balls better the week. We're going 29 00:01:42,440 --> 00:01:45,040 Speaker 1: to nail down what we think the best bets are 30 00:01:45,760 --> 00:01:49,000 Speaker 1: is we've evolved from Tuesday to Thursday with market news 31 00:01:49,080 --> 00:01:53,920 Speaker 1: and conditions and lines changing and etcetera, etcetera. My bff, 32 00:01:54,000 --> 00:01:57,840 Speaker 1: my companion, Mike and Padre professional better Simon Hunter Simon. 33 00:01:57,960 --> 00:02:00,440 Speaker 1: Before we get to any of that, we do have 34 00:02:01,040 --> 00:02:06,320 Speaker 1: literally some late breaking overnight betting news. This is how 35 00:02:06,360 --> 00:02:09,079 Speaker 1: it happens. This is the world you live in. This 36 00:02:09,160 --> 00:02:12,000 Speaker 1: is how it goes down for someone like you. Talk 37 00:02:12,040 --> 00:02:14,840 Speaker 1: to me. Yeah, Buddy, woke up to a bunch of miscalls, 38 00:02:14,919 --> 00:02:16,960 Speaker 1: which is never a good thing, but sometimes it is. 39 00:02:17,160 --> 00:02:20,040 Speaker 1: It's usually COVID related. But like we joked on the playoffs, 40 00:02:20,120 --> 00:02:23,359 Speaker 1: COVID disappeared. Cofort doesn't exist, So immediately I saw a 41 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:25,960 Speaker 1: bunch of miscalls. My mind went to the worst. Called 42 00:02:26,000 --> 00:02:28,640 Speaker 1: back this other guy who I worked with, and he 43 00:02:28,720 --> 00:02:32,120 Speaker 1: started talking about this NC State offensive lineman. He came 44 00:02:32,160 --> 00:02:34,440 Speaker 1: in Kwanu for the number one overall pick. Right now 45 00:02:34,760 --> 00:02:36,560 Speaker 1: is gone from hundred to one to six to one. 46 00:02:36,919 --> 00:02:39,640 Speaker 1: Articles are coming out now right mock drafts are being posted. 47 00:02:39,720 --> 00:02:44,360 Speaker 1: So apparently Athletic well trusted Mock Draft group online reporters 48 00:02:44,560 --> 00:02:47,079 Speaker 1: put out their first mock and in this mock they 49 00:02:47,120 --> 00:02:49,960 Speaker 1: had Kwandu as number one overall pick. He was at 50 00:02:49,960 --> 00:02:52,520 Speaker 1: a hundred of one when this article was posted, right 51 00:02:53,040 --> 00:02:55,040 Speaker 1: it is since in the last twenty four hours moved 52 00:02:55,120 --> 00:02:57,160 Speaker 1: to six to one. So when I got woke up 53 00:02:57,200 --> 00:02:59,480 Speaker 1: this morning, it was about from other professionals calling me 54 00:02:59,560 --> 00:03:02,600 Speaker 1: saying out what was at midnight one am, Vegas time, 55 00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:05,560 Speaker 1: that they're betting this number on this NFL draft again. 56 00:03:05,760 --> 00:03:07,520 Speaker 1: People are going crazy about the draft right now. It's 57 00:03:07,520 --> 00:03:11,120 Speaker 1: really professionals betting in the draft. It's January. The public 58 00:03:11,160 --> 00:03:13,440 Speaker 1: doesn't care about the draft. The public is onto the playoffs. 59 00:03:13,720 --> 00:03:16,200 Speaker 1: That's why this line moving such a big deal. Moving 60 00:03:16,200 --> 00:03:17,880 Speaker 1: it from a hundred oh one to six to one 61 00:03:17,880 --> 00:03:20,079 Speaker 1: in a twenty four hour period. I honestly, I can't 62 00:03:20,080 --> 00:03:21,840 Speaker 1: remember another time I've seen a sports book do that 63 00:03:21,919 --> 00:03:24,280 Speaker 1: kind of thing. It's it's crazy they are that off 64 00:03:24,320 --> 00:03:27,560 Speaker 1: on these opening lines. So Chad, you know, if we 65 00:03:27,639 --> 00:03:29,720 Speaker 1: hear a story like this, this is a big deal. 66 00:03:29,800 --> 00:03:32,200 Speaker 1: So it's it's really exciting right now when this morning 67 00:03:32,240 --> 00:03:34,200 Speaker 1: just everyone's going crazy trying to figure out what these 68 00:03:34,200 --> 00:03:36,600 Speaker 1: people know. Are the Jags leaking information? Is it? I 69 00:03:36,640 --> 00:03:38,320 Speaker 1: guarantee that he would be the number one pick now 70 00:03:38,320 --> 00:03:40,360 Speaker 1: because that's I'm seeing some books he's at three to 71 00:03:40,400 --> 00:03:43,280 Speaker 1: one right now. That that's pretty insane movement. That is 72 00:03:43,360 --> 00:03:45,800 Speaker 1: massive movement in the span of twenty four hours from 73 00:03:45,800 --> 00:03:48,040 Speaker 1: a hundred to one to three to one. I don't 74 00:03:48,080 --> 00:03:51,960 Speaker 1: even know. That sounds almost entirely unprecedented. Wheels are turner 75 00:03:52,000 --> 00:03:53,280 Speaker 1: in out, So I can't even think of many got 76 00:03:53,280 --> 00:03:55,920 Speaker 1: top of my head, but it's it's pretty shocking. Like 77 00:03:56,080 --> 00:03:58,000 Speaker 1: the last crazy number one pick I could think of 78 00:03:58,080 --> 00:04:00,680 Speaker 1: was Baker. I remember Baker, he opened up and maybe 79 00:04:01,080 --> 00:04:04,200 Speaker 1: thirty five thirty one to be the number one pick 80 00:04:04,440 --> 00:04:06,040 Speaker 1: like that was pretty crazy. And by the time the 81 00:04:06,120 --> 00:04:08,840 Speaker 1: draft got closer, and Sam Donald started dropping and Josh 82 00:04:08,920 --> 00:04:11,160 Speaker 1: Allen started dropping down all of a sudden, Baker ended 83 00:04:11,200 --> 00:04:12,560 Speaker 1: up being the one pick. But people don't really know 84 00:04:12,560 --> 00:04:14,960 Speaker 1: that until three days before. This is crazy movement. A 85 00:04:15,040 --> 00:04:17,760 Speaker 1: hundred one to three to one. That's they're not moving 86 00:04:17,760 --> 00:04:20,120 Speaker 1: at just because it's some random guy walking off the strip. 87 00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:22,960 Speaker 1: They're moving that off real good information. So that's uh, 88 00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:25,640 Speaker 1: that's a pretty exciting story right now. Look, it's January. 89 00:04:25,720 --> 00:04:28,159 Speaker 1: Like you said, the draft isn't for a few months. 90 00:04:28,400 --> 00:04:31,680 Speaker 1: There's gonna be a lot of movement in this overall. 91 00:04:31,880 --> 00:04:34,320 Speaker 1: For the record, we can remember to cut the clip. 92 00:04:34,680 --> 00:04:36,960 Speaker 1: It was Chad Mellman who said there would not be 93 00:04:37,360 --> 00:04:40,960 Speaker 1: a quarterback taken in the top ten. I stand by it. 94 00:04:41,080 --> 00:04:43,400 Speaker 1: In all the mock drafts that have come out, we've 95 00:04:43,400 --> 00:04:47,160 Speaker 1: continued to see that. My milk Hyper came out with 96 00:04:47,200 --> 00:04:50,080 Speaker 1: his mock draft, his first mock yesterday. He expected the 97 00:04:50,080 --> 00:04:53,120 Speaker 1: first quarterback taking to be I think thirteen. It was 98 00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:55,760 Speaker 1: the kid from Liberty. Simon and Matt Mitchell. You are 99 00:04:55,760 --> 00:04:58,720 Speaker 1: both against me on that. But huge news, huge news 100 00:04:58,880 --> 00:05:02,320 Speaker 1: about movement. Uh in the NFL draft odds hundred one, 101 00:05:02,600 --> 00:05:07,760 Speaker 1: the three to one for North Carolina State offensive Linemen Kim. 102 00:05:08,800 --> 00:05:10,800 Speaker 1: People asked why I go to beds early? That's why 103 00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:14,000 Speaker 1: it's like my days start at weird times, just because 104 00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:16,360 Speaker 1: Vegas doesn't sleep like a lot of these pros. They're 105 00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:19,640 Speaker 1: making moves at midnight, one, two in the morning. What 106 00:05:19,720 --> 00:05:21,960 Speaker 1: can I do? That's four or five am R time. 107 00:05:22,040 --> 00:05:24,479 Speaker 1: So I go to bed at nine o'clock. Not because 108 00:05:24,520 --> 00:05:26,880 Speaker 1: I'm an old man. I'm just I'm tired. Man, I've 109 00:05:26,920 --> 00:05:29,880 Speaker 1: been up all day. I go to bed at nine o'clock. 110 00:05:30,600 --> 00:05:32,520 Speaker 1: Just because I go to bed at nine o'clock. We're 111 00:05:32,560 --> 00:05:35,240 Speaker 1: gonna live forever. No, You're gonna live forever, Chad. That 112 00:05:35,360 --> 00:05:38,720 Speaker 1: I'm trying. That's my goal. Me. I'm going on the 113 00:05:38,720 --> 00:05:40,760 Speaker 1: theory that I'm not scared to death, and I'm gonna 114 00:05:40,760 --> 00:05:42,800 Speaker 1: eat what I'm gonna eat this morning. What I have. 115 00:05:42,880 --> 00:05:46,200 Speaker 1: I had some bacon, had some cheerios. I'm a bouncing act. 116 00:05:46,240 --> 00:05:48,800 Speaker 1: Maybe an apple later. Who knows, Chad, But you you're 117 00:05:48,839 --> 00:05:51,680 Speaker 1: gonna live to be all right? Well, let's get to it. Look, 118 00:05:51,760 --> 00:05:55,040 Speaker 1: divisional playoffs, it's the best sports weekend that there is, 119 00:05:55,080 --> 00:05:58,000 Speaker 1: like the it's it's great competition. The games are gonna 120 00:05:58,000 --> 00:06:00,560 Speaker 1: be amazing. I always love it because the best week. 121 00:06:00,600 --> 00:06:02,039 Speaker 1: It's one of the best weekends of the year for 122 00:06:02,080 --> 00:06:04,919 Speaker 1: Action Network. We've talked about we've gone through all the games, 123 00:06:05,200 --> 00:06:11,920 Speaker 1: let's talk about your sharp calls to start. Hello, who's there? 124 00:06:12,000 --> 00:06:22,840 Speaker 1: I'm talking yeah, sharp calls. I think last week we 125 00:06:22,839 --> 00:06:24,640 Speaker 1: we kind of narrowed down to just one game, and 126 00:06:24,880 --> 00:06:26,719 Speaker 1: again I trusted my gut. I went against a lot 127 00:06:26,760 --> 00:06:29,640 Speaker 1: of professionals who I do trust, but playoffs, I talk 128 00:06:29,640 --> 00:06:31,600 Speaker 1: a lot of time it's about trusting your gut. Just 129 00:06:31,640 --> 00:06:33,560 Speaker 1: take all information you're getting given. It's the same thing 130 00:06:33,560 --> 00:06:36,440 Speaker 1: I do with these sharp calls. So this week, no 131 00:06:36,600 --> 00:06:41,039 Speaker 1: surprise the professionals. They love the Buccaneers, and I really, 132 00:06:41,080 --> 00:06:43,760 Speaker 1: really really liked the Rams. I said that like coming 133 00:06:43,760 --> 00:06:45,880 Speaker 1: into it, I wanted more time to see what was 134 00:06:45,920 --> 00:06:48,440 Speaker 1: going on the injuries with this Buccaneers team. Yeah, we're 135 00:06:48,440 --> 00:06:50,800 Speaker 1: gonna break down that whole game, but just so people 136 00:06:50,839 --> 00:06:53,920 Speaker 1: know where the pros heads are at. They love the Bucks. 137 00:06:54,640 --> 00:06:56,800 Speaker 1: They're coming in really big on the bills. I can 138 00:06:56,839 --> 00:06:58,880 Speaker 1: think of five legit groups that have come in heavy 139 00:06:58,880 --> 00:07:00,720 Speaker 1: on the spills money line, and they're gonna keep taking 140 00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:03,080 Speaker 1: it until they moved down to a pick. They're not 141 00:07:03,080 --> 00:07:04,880 Speaker 1: taking the number, like they haven't been taking the two 142 00:07:04,880 --> 00:07:06,760 Speaker 1: and a half. They haven't been taking the two, they've 143 00:07:06,760 --> 00:07:08,520 Speaker 1: been taking the money line. They just believe in this 144 00:07:08,640 --> 00:07:11,280 Speaker 1: Bills team. So that that started to explain more why 145 00:07:11,440 --> 00:07:13,040 Speaker 1: so much of that money was coming on the Bills. 146 00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:15,760 Speaker 1: I didn't really get. I thought that was public money. No, 147 00:07:16,080 --> 00:07:18,200 Speaker 1: it's not like I've tuk to a bunch of runners 148 00:07:18,200 --> 00:07:20,520 Speaker 1: in the stadier of Jersey. They've just been betting that 149 00:07:20,520 --> 00:07:23,600 Speaker 1: Bills money line. It's shocking. I am honestly like, again, 150 00:07:23,640 --> 00:07:25,600 Speaker 1: we're gonna go through that game. I was shocked by that, 151 00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:28,640 Speaker 1: just because I just can't imagine going against my homes 152 00:07:28,680 --> 00:07:30,880 Speaker 1: at home here. I get they have a read and 153 00:07:30,880 --> 00:07:32,920 Speaker 1: they have a system just like I do. Um, but 154 00:07:33,000 --> 00:07:37,000 Speaker 1: luckily I'm just sometimes I do fade my system. I'm 155 00:07:37,000 --> 00:07:39,360 Speaker 1: not here. I'm still gonna rib the Chiefs again. We'll 156 00:07:39,360 --> 00:07:41,960 Speaker 1: break that one down. Another one that just found really 157 00:07:42,040 --> 00:07:46,120 Speaker 1: interesting was, um, you know, people like doing totals. I 158 00:07:46,160 --> 00:07:47,679 Speaker 1: talked to a lot of pros that like the under 159 00:07:47,920 --> 00:07:51,120 Speaker 1: and the Cincinnati Tennessee game. Uh, they're looking at a 160 00:07:51,120 --> 00:07:54,080 Speaker 1: team that they believe Tennessee is gonna ball control. The 161 00:07:54,120 --> 00:07:56,600 Speaker 1: same reason. We like Tennessee, and a lot of the 162 00:07:56,600 --> 00:08:00,120 Speaker 1: guys I talked to they just think that last week 163 00:08:00,840 --> 00:08:03,840 Speaker 1: them going against the Raiders again, Joe Burrows looked great. 164 00:08:04,600 --> 00:08:06,280 Speaker 1: They thought that was more about the Raiders defense just 165 00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:07,840 Speaker 1: not being that good to being exhausted. When now you're 166 00:08:07,840 --> 00:08:11,000 Speaker 1: going against the rest of Tennessee defense, a much better 167 00:08:11,080 --> 00:08:12,840 Speaker 1: front four. That's gonna bring a lot more pressure on 168 00:08:12,920 --> 00:08:15,360 Speaker 1: Joe Burrow. I can see why they like the under. 169 00:08:15,480 --> 00:08:18,120 Speaker 1: It makes sense. And now I'm checking it looking splits 170 00:08:18,120 --> 00:08:20,600 Speaker 1: on the action app. Money and tickets are coming in 171 00:08:20,640 --> 00:08:23,440 Speaker 1: towards the over. The line is not really moving, so 172 00:08:23,920 --> 00:08:26,280 Speaker 1: obviously the professionals have come in. They've held that number 173 00:08:26,320 --> 00:08:28,400 Speaker 1: where it's at, so you can wait on that one. 174 00:08:28,400 --> 00:08:29,880 Speaker 1: I feel like the public will keep coming in. Maybe 175 00:08:29,880 --> 00:08:31,800 Speaker 1: you'll get a nice little bump before the game kicks off. 176 00:08:31,880 --> 00:08:33,760 Speaker 1: But that that's one of those I'm gonna have to 177 00:08:33,760 --> 00:08:35,680 Speaker 1: be on the under that Tennessee game. Also like Tennessee. 178 00:08:35,720 --> 00:08:37,400 Speaker 1: It's rare for me to take a favorite in it under, 179 00:08:37,800 --> 00:08:40,600 Speaker 1: but Tennessee style running the ball, controlling the clock, that 180 00:08:40,679 --> 00:08:42,640 Speaker 1: kind of skews towards the under and a win for 181 00:08:42,640 --> 00:08:45,240 Speaker 1: that team. This is a stat from Stucky in the 182 00:08:45,280 --> 00:08:48,959 Speaker 1: Action Network podcast which came out this morning downloaded. It's 183 00:08:49,000 --> 00:08:52,960 Speaker 1: fantastic totals in the divisional round since two thousand three, 184 00:08:53,200 --> 00:08:56,120 Speaker 1: when the total is between forty seven and fifty five 185 00:08:56,160 --> 00:08:58,079 Speaker 1: and a half, which is where all these totals are 186 00:08:58,160 --> 00:09:01,400 Speaker 1: this week, Unders have gone fifty seven percent since two 187 00:09:01,400 --> 00:09:04,960 Speaker 1: thousand three when the games are played outdoors, meaning all 188 00:09:05,000 --> 00:09:07,600 Speaker 1: of these games, because they're all being played outdoors, the 189 00:09:07,760 --> 00:09:11,440 Speaker 1: Unders thirty seven, twenty and two. And we're gonna go 190 00:09:11,600 --> 00:09:13,840 Speaker 1: game by game right now, but I will say that 191 00:09:13,880 --> 00:09:16,760 Speaker 1: the other day, my first instinct on the Chiefs and 192 00:09:16,760 --> 00:09:19,760 Speaker 1: the Bills was it was at fifty four and a half. 193 00:09:20,320 --> 00:09:23,400 Speaker 1: My first instinct was on the under. You like the over, 194 00:09:24,120 --> 00:09:27,560 Speaker 1: but this to me feels like a game where it's 195 00:09:27,720 --> 00:09:30,960 Speaker 1: over inflated because of the caliber of the offenses, and 196 00:09:31,000 --> 00:09:35,400 Speaker 1: the Chiefs, especially at home, tend to score low score 197 00:09:35,559 --> 00:09:37,600 Speaker 1: They're trying to be more to low scoring games, and 198 00:09:37,640 --> 00:09:38,960 Speaker 1: this is the kind of game where you could see 199 00:09:38,960 --> 00:09:41,160 Speaker 1: a lot of long drives and that doesn't lead itself 200 00:09:41,480 --> 00:09:45,959 Speaker 1: to lend itself to a big, big number. Yeah, I 201 00:09:45,960 --> 00:09:47,600 Speaker 1: think Stucky was when I said it too, that it's 202 00:09:47,679 --> 00:09:51,080 Speaker 1: totals above fifty four and the playoffs are eight and 203 00:09:51,120 --> 00:09:53,440 Speaker 1: one towards the under. The only over that's ever gone 204 00:09:53,480 --> 00:09:57,280 Speaker 1: over is the Bills versus the Chiefs. Uh, it's by 205 00:09:57,280 --> 00:09:59,640 Speaker 1: you saying you're on the under. Everyone's gonna be joining you. 206 00:09:59,679 --> 00:10:01,680 Speaker 1: Like I know, playing professional is gonna be on that under. 207 00:10:01,679 --> 00:10:04,200 Speaker 1: That's just way too high for this playoffs. I'm just 208 00:10:04,280 --> 00:10:05,960 Speaker 1: on small for the over just because of what I 209 00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:09,360 Speaker 1: just said. I just believe both these offenses are that great. 210 00:10:09,559 --> 00:10:13,120 Speaker 1: Like both again, the o C for the Bills, you 211 00:10:13,120 --> 00:10:15,160 Speaker 1: could argue he's gonna be one of the hottest candidates 212 00:10:15,200 --> 00:10:17,680 Speaker 1: to be a head coach this offseason, and he just 213 00:10:17,720 --> 00:10:21,000 Speaker 1: trust Josh Allen like you've rarely ever seen an all 214 00:10:21,160 --> 00:10:24,120 Speaker 1: seed like well, again, they've had games here, Matt Mitchell 215 00:10:24,120 --> 00:10:25,760 Speaker 1: contest to it. They just don't even run the ball. 216 00:10:25,760 --> 00:10:28,280 Speaker 1: They blood Josh Allen simply passed the entire game. So 217 00:10:28,679 --> 00:10:30,280 Speaker 1: the reason I just like the over is because both 218 00:10:30,320 --> 00:10:33,120 Speaker 1: these guys they're like that skip for Monty Python. You 219 00:10:33,160 --> 00:10:35,080 Speaker 1: can cut their arms off, they're gonna still be hopping 220 00:10:35,120 --> 00:10:39,440 Speaker 1: around trying to fight. Yeah, exactly, It's like Josh youn 221 00:10:39,480 --> 00:10:41,360 Speaker 1: Ca have both his legs cut off and he's still 222 00:10:41,400 --> 00:10:44,400 Speaker 1: gonna be thrown and trucking even if he's down fifty 223 00:10:44,440 --> 00:10:46,760 Speaker 1: points in the fourth quarter. It's like, I just look 224 00:10:46,800 --> 00:10:50,080 Speaker 1: at both these offenses never quitting. So I'm with you. 225 00:10:50,120 --> 00:10:51,760 Speaker 1: That's a fair bed pick you under in this matchup. 226 00:10:51,760 --> 00:10:54,240 Speaker 1: But yeah, I am the other. Again, We'll touch other 227 00:10:54,280 --> 00:10:55,720 Speaker 1: three games. This is the only one I'm really on 228 00:10:55,760 --> 00:10:58,360 Speaker 1: the over four. All right, let's do it. Let's do it. 229 00:10:58,520 --> 00:11:01,000 Speaker 1: Let's talk about Tennessee and since an eddie out of 230 00:11:01,000 --> 00:11:05,040 Speaker 1: the gate first game, we loved Tennessee at minus three 231 00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:09,600 Speaker 1: and a half. Nothing I have heard or seen since 232 00:11:09,640 --> 00:11:15,840 Speaker 1: then makes me disagree with that. I think coming into 233 00:11:15,840 --> 00:11:19,400 Speaker 1: this game, the Joe Burrows are a little bit inflated 234 00:11:19,400 --> 00:11:23,800 Speaker 1: because of what they did this past week. It's a 235 00:11:23,800 --> 00:11:27,400 Speaker 1: about of the money, meaning the professionals are coming in 236 00:11:27,440 --> 00:11:29,320 Speaker 1: on the Titans even at the three and a half. 237 00:11:30,040 --> 00:11:32,280 Speaker 1: They're gonna be healthy with all twenty two of their 238 00:11:32,320 --> 00:11:37,920 Speaker 1: projected starters playing, Derrick Henry back, a j Brown back, 239 00:11:38,080 --> 00:11:41,600 Speaker 1: and healthy Julio Jones expected to play a high percentage 240 00:11:41,600 --> 00:11:46,360 Speaker 1: of snaps. Mike Vrabel eight No when he has more 241 00:11:46,400 --> 00:11:49,480 Speaker 1: than nine days to prepare, You and I both know 242 00:11:49,559 --> 00:11:53,040 Speaker 1: he's a great coach Coach of the Year. Nothing walks 243 00:11:53,040 --> 00:11:55,720 Speaker 1: me away from this bet. Nope. And I was gonna say, 244 00:11:55,720 --> 00:11:58,520 Speaker 1: I'm surprised you didn't talk about video Derrick Henry coming 245 00:11:58,559 --> 00:12:00,959 Speaker 1: out there. The people post the video of Derrick Henry 246 00:12:01,000 --> 00:12:03,880 Speaker 1: this past week practicing Holy Ship did he look angry 247 00:12:03,880 --> 00:12:06,040 Speaker 1: and practice like he just was bulldozed And his own 248 00:12:06,040 --> 00:12:08,880 Speaker 1: teammates told him the pads Like you've heard all the 249 00:12:08,920 --> 00:12:11,160 Speaker 1: rumors coming out. They want to get him twenty to 250 00:12:11,200 --> 00:12:14,840 Speaker 1: twenty five touches in this game. That's this is like, 251 00:12:14,880 --> 00:12:16,760 Speaker 1: this is the secret weapon Tennessee. This is why we 252 00:12:16,800 --> 00:12:19,559 Speaker 1: like them so much. People just remember what have you 253 00:12:19,600 --> 00:12:22,160 Speaker 1: done for me lately? Like like they're not thinking about 254 00:12:22,160 --> 00:12:24,760 Speaker 1: Derrick Henry going out this season. He was at m 255 00:12:24,840 --> 00:12:27,000 Speaker 1: v P levels, Like he was literally putting at m 256 00:12:27,040 --> 00:12:30,439 Speaker 1: VP level when he got hurt fresh legs, Derrick Henry 257 00:12:31,000 --> 00:12:33,600 Speaker 1: man by that by the time it hits that fourth quarter, 258 00:12:33,880 --> 00:12:35,959 Speaker 1: this that's just gonna be since these is gonna be 259 00:12:36,000 --> 00:12:38,480 Speaker 1: done and that's when Derrick Henry kind of shine. So 260 00:12:38,840 --> 00:12:41,280 Speaker 1: nothing changed for me either, Chad. I talked to a 261 00:12:41,360 --> 00:12:46,040 Speaker 1: couple of different bookmakers. They're getting slammed with Bengals moneyline money. 262 00:12:46,120 --> 00:12:48,200 Speaker 1: If you can look at on the action appict really skewed. 263 00:12:48,559 --> 00:12:50,720 Speaker 1: I believe it's over six the money. Six of the 264 00:12:50,720 --> 00:12:52,880 Speaker 1: bets right now is on the money line for the Bengals. 265 00:12:53,160 --> 00:12:57,640 Speaker 1: No surprised people think they're alive. Dog that the teaser numbers. 266 00:12:57,640 --> 00:12:59,400 Speaker 1: He's even more excued. It's like over eight percent of 267 00:12:59,440 --> 00:13:03,160 Speaker 1: all teasers right now or towards this Bengals team. It's 268 00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:05,480 Speaker 1: it's no surprise. It's just the Tennessee hasn't been a 269 00:13:05,480 --> 00:13:09,000 Speaker 1: public team this year. Again, Rabel, we talked about it. 270 00:13:09,040 --> 00:13:11,520 Speaker 1: They were the one seed in the FC. They be 271 00:13:12,240 --> 00:13:14,680 Speaker 1: you know, the Chiefs. They beat the Bills, they beat 272 00:13:14,720 --> 00:13:17,360 Speaker 1: some of the best teams in that division with Ryan 273 00:13:17,400 --> 00:13:19,440 Speaker 1: Tannehill as their quarterback, and he wasn't me talked about 274 00:13:19,480 --> 00:13:21,400 Speaker 1: coach of the year, like people kept talking about the 275 00:13:21,440 --> 00:13:24,559 Speaker 1: floor with Aaron Rodgers, who's the MVP of the league. 276 00:13:24,600 --> 00:13:26,720 Speaker 1: It's like, what are we doing here? That's why I 277 00:13:26,760 --> 00:13:29,600 Speaker 1: just think this, this Tennessee team is just disrespected. It's 278 00:13:29,600 --> 00:13:31,839 Speaker 1: one of these games where I think Bybel's gonna be 279 00:13:31,840 --> 00:13:33,640 Speaker 1: playing that card to them, like no one really believes 280 00:13:33,679 --> 00:13:36,720 Speaker 1: in us. Sure we're the favorite, but do people really 281 00:13:36,880 --> 00:13:38,319 Speaker 1: like believe in US as a team, people are just 282 00:13:38,360 --> 00:13:40,720 Speaker 1: talking about the Chiefs and the Bills, like wherever win's 283 00:13:40,760 --> 00:13:43,240 Speaker 1: that game is gonnahen the FC people are just sleeping 284 00:13:43,240 --> 00:13:46,280 Speaker 1: on the Tennessee team. So you're right, You're right there, Chad, 285 00:13:46,360 --> 00:13:48,240 Speaker 1: Like I gotta take this number. I gotta take Tennessee. 286 00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:50,120 Speaker 1: As long as stays under four, you're getting a great number. 287 00:13:50,120 --> 00:13:52,200 Speaker 1: Even if it hits four, I still think that's a 288 00:13:52,200 --> 00:13:55,000 Speaker 1: good number for this Tennessee side and the under like 289 00:13:55,080 --> 00:13:57,680 Speaker 1: we talked about, I just I like Tennessee the ball 290 00:13:57,679 --> 00:14:01,600 Speaker 1: control this game. Again, I'm made story about Cincinnati. It 291 00:14:01,640 --> 00:14:03,040 Speaker 1: feels like they are a year or two away from 292 00:14:03,040 --> 00:14:05,880 Speaker 1: playing an f C championship games, so they gotta pay 293 00:14:05,880 --> 00:14:07,640 Speaker 1: their dues. So this is one of those games where 294 00:14:08,200 --> 00:14:10,440 Speaker 1: if since he was at home, I maybe think about 295 00:14:10,480 --> 00:14:12,280 Speaker 1: them in the upset, but the fact they're on the road, 296 00:14:12,720 --> 00:14:15,160 Speaker 1: like Chad just said, after such an emotional big win, 297 00:14:15,679 --> 00:14:17,880 Speaker 1: their their coach going around giving game balls out all 298 00:14:17,880 --> 00:14:19,320 Speaker 1: those bars, Like I can't get over how cool of 299 00:14:19,360 --> 00:14:21,400 Speaker 1: the story that is. But I just felt like that 300 00:14:21,440 --> 00:14:24,000 Speaker 1: was their super Bowl. So we we usually win in 301 00:14:24,040 --> 00:14:26,800 Speaker 1: these spots, like last week with the Raiders. We favor 302 00:14:26,800 --> 00:14:29,680 Speaker 1: the Raiders off that huge emotional win against the Chargers. 303 00:14:30,240 --> 00:14:31,840 Speaker 1: It worked out for us. Maybe we got a couple 304 00:14:31,840 --> 00:14:33,360 Speaker 1: of calls go our away, we got a little lucky, 305 00:14:33,480 --> 00:14:35,680 Speaker 1: But those are the kind of situations that's why you 306 00:14:35,680 --> 00:14:37,520 Speaker 1: play with those kind of numbers. And again with the 307 00:14:37,560 --> 00:14:40,240 Speaker 1: Tennessee team, I think we're getting good number. Reminder that 308 00:14:40,320 --> 00:14:44,160 Speaker 1: the Titans minus three and a half are my Scooch 309 00:14:44,400 --> 00:14:47,440 Speaker 1: Roulette pick, and I'm saying it now because we're going 310 00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:50,000 Speaker 1: to transition into the Chiefs and the Bills a little 311 00:14:50,040 --> 00:14:53,440 Speaker 1: bit more deeply. And your Scooch Roulette pick was the 312 00:14:53,520 --> 00:14:57,360 Speaker 1: Chiefs minus two. And everything I've heard about who's back 313 00:14:57,400 --> 00:15:00,400 Speaker 1: for the Titans is, you know, the Derrick Henry video 314 00:15:00,640 --> 00:15:04,960 Speaker 1: label off of a lot of time to prepare this, 315 00:15:05,360 --> 00:15:09,560 Speaker 1: the Bengals sort of getting some some public attention being 316 00:15:09,600 --> 00:15:13,040 Speaker 1: the public um darling. And then on the other side, 317 00:15:13,480 --> 00:15:18,520 Speaker 1: the Bills being very much the wise guy favorite here, 318 00:15:18,800 --> 00:15:21,680 Speaker 1: everybody loving the Bills, people talking about having the Bills 319 00:15:22,080 --> 00:15:25,080 Speaker 1: power raided as their best team in the NFL. It's 320 00:15:25,120 --> 00:15:28,160 Speaker 1: a prose Joe's game like this is the only real 321 00:15:28,240 --> 00:15:30,840 Speaker 1: pros Joe's game on the board where bats are coming 322 00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:33,560 Speaker 1: in on the Chiefs. Money is coming in on the Bills. 323 00:15:33,960 --> 00:15:36,120 Speaker 1: The line has moved up and down a little bit. 324 00:15:36,200 --> 00:15:38,440 Speaker 1: It did get down to one and a half Simon. 325 00:15:38,480 --> 00:15:40,800 Speaker 1: You say, a lot of professional money coming in on 326 00:15:40,840 --> 00:15:45,520 Speaker 1: the Bills on the money line. All that said, I 327 00:15:45,520 --> 00:15:49,560 Speaker 1: still love the Chiefs here. That's what. Like I joke 328 00:15:49,640 --> 00:15:51,920 Speaker 1: with people a time about trusting your gun in these moments, 329 00:15:51,920 --> 00:15:53,760 Speaker 1: it's like, I'm not gonna lie. A couple of the 330 00:15:53,760 --> 00:15:55,800 Speaker 1: pros I talked to, they're they're better than me. They 331 00:15:55,920 --> 00:15:58,400 Speaker 1: they've won longer, they've been around the books a lot longer. 332 00:15:58,640 --> 00:16:00,800 Speaker 1: When they're started breaking me down either on the Bills, 333 00:16:00,960 --> 00:16:04,720 Speaker 1: it's it's all sound, it all makes sense. But I 334 00:16:04,800 --> 00:16:07,040 Speaker 1: keep saying to them, like, you're you're really gonna bet 335 00:16:07,080 --> 00:16:10,840 Speaker 1: against my homes and Arrowhead, Like we're really gonna bet 336 00:16:10,840 --> 00:16:12,880 Speaker 1: on the Bills to beat them twice in one year. 337 00:16:12,920 --> 00:16:15,640 Speaker 1: It's that's a lot to ask of Josh Allen. Josh 338 00:16:15,640 --> 00:16:17,560 Speaker 1: Owen's gonna be paying back his demons of having a 339 00:16:17,640 --> 00:16:21,000 Speaker 1: letdown multiple times this past season, like that Jags game 340 00:16:21,280 --> 00:16:23,760 Speaker 1: that cost him a one seed. There there's little moments 341 00:16:23,800 --> 00:16:26,360 Speaker 1: for this past season the Bills cost themselves, and I 342 00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:28,840 Speaker 1: think it's gonna come to the forefront of this matchup again. 343 00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:32,040 Speaker 1: We saw it last week. Every home team won and 344 00:16:32,160 --> 00:16:34,360 Speaker 1: covered except the Forts, who went on the road and 345 00:16:34,400 --> 00:16:36,960 Speaker 1: beat Dallas. It's just hard to win on the road 346 00:16:37,000 --> 00:16:40,280 Speaker 1: in the playoffs. Again. Last year, people were like, oh, look, 347 00:16:40,280 --> 00:16:42,960 Speaker 1: how great the road teams are doing. There's no fucking fans, 348 00:16:43,000 --> 00:16:45,760 Speaker 1: Like that's a big deal. There's no fans in the stadium. 349 00:16:45,840 --> 00:16:49,360 Speaker 1: It was literally quiet and pumped in music. We've seen 350 00:16:49,360 --> 00:16:51,200 Speaker 1: it this year flip back to what it usually is, 351 00:16:51,200 --> 00:16:53,800 Speaker 1: where it's home teams have an advantage because of that, 352 00:16:53,800 --> 00:16:56,800 Speaker 1: that crowd noise. It really makes it hard to communicate. 353 00:16:56,880 --> 00:16:58,800 Speaker 1: And Josh Allen, we saw it last week. He loves 354 00:16:58,800 --> 00:17:00,360 Speaker 1: to talk to the line. That's why he's such a 355 00:17:00,360 --> 00:17:03,120 Speaker 1: great commander. He's moving, guys, He's doing different things like that. 356 00:17:04,200 --> 00:17:05,800 Speaker 1: I'm wearing right there with each other. I still think 357 00:17:05,800 --> 00:17:08,080 Speaker 1: we're getting a great number in this matchup, and just 358 00:17:08,119 --> 00:17:11,160 Speaker 1: looking at the numbers, I think it's moving honestly, because 359 00:17:11,280 --> 00:17:12,840 Speaker 1: we talked about how many pros are coming on the 360 00:17:12,880 --> 00:17:15,760 Speaker 1: money online and the public. This is their number again. 361 00:17:15,840 --> 00:17:18,040 Speaker 1: This is we'll see what the teasers number are comes Sunday. 362 00:17:18,080 --> 00:17:20,360 Speaker 1: This is number one Teas team. Right now, you're able 363 00:17:20,400 --> 00:17:22,240 Speaker 1: to tease them update and a half, seven and a half. 364 00:17:22,640 --> 00:17:24,399 Speaker 1: We talk all the time, key number, How those are 365 00:17:24,400 --> 00:17:28,879 Speaker 1: such key numbers, no surprise, So I'll take the value 366 00:17:28,880 --> 00:17:32,119 Speaker 1: on this Chiefs team. I'm I'm honestly, I'm excited to 367 00:17:32,160 --> 00:17:34,400 Speaker 1: see what kind of matchup this will end up being, 368 00:17:34,440 --> 00:17:37,199 Speaker 1: because it's just giving me these bad vibes of this 369 00:17:37,240 --> 00:17:40,280 Speaker 1: Bills team literally is coming off again a perfect game 370 00:17:40,800 --> 00:17:43,320 Speaker 1: just to complete letdown on this spot like stuck, he 371 00:17:43,359 --> 00:17:45,400 Speaker 1: talked about it, the stath that you're referring to. There 372 00:17:45,520 --> 00:17:50,040 Speaker 1: is a pretty good system and precedent where teams that 373 00:17:50,520 --> 00:17:53,160 Speaker 1: blow teams out the week before and win by four 374 00:17:53,200 --> 00:17:56,800 Speaker 1: touchdowns are more the key was covered covered by twenty 375 00:17:56,840 --> 00:17:59,720 Speaker 1: eight or more. Right, Yeah, cover tend to not cover 376 00:17:59,800 --> 00:18:03,200 Speaker 1: the llowing week. They're less than belee against the spread 377 00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:05,760 Speaker 1: the following weeks. Like it's it's little things like that 378 00:18:05,800 --> 00:18:09,040 Speaker 1: where teams have these crazy offensive explosions in the following 379 00:18:09,080 --> 00:18:11,400 Speaker 1: week they kind of have a letdown because again, it's 380 00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:13,760 Speaker 1: a lot easier beating up on Mac Jones than it 381 00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:17,359 Speaker 1: is Mahomes on the road. So I get why you 382 00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:19,360 Speaker 1: say it's a lot of professional money, like I've talked 383 00:18:19,359 --> 00:18:21,040 Speaker 1: to pros were coming on the Bills. It's gonna be 384 00:18:21,080 --> 00:18:22,960 Speaker 1: a lot of public too though, just like off that 385 00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:25,840 Speaker 1: that fact alone where it's the Bills team, they're the 386 00:18:25,840 --> 00:18:28,560 Speaker 1: best team last week, no doubt, Like that was historical 387 00:18:28,600 --> 00:18:31,240 Speaker 1: what we saw. So that's why people like you know 388 00:18:31,280 --> 00:18:33,119 Speaker 1: that I like to shift to people that make bets 389 00:18:33,359 --> 00:18:35,000 Speaker 1: the playoffs. I don't really do because I can see 390 00:18:35,040 --> 00:18:37,240 Speaker 1: why people are on the Bills, like arguably the most 391 00:18:37,280 --> 00:18:40,320 Speaker 1: complete offense, most complete defense in the playoffs. It's just 392 00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:44,080 Speaker 1: a Mahomes factor. I can't stress enough how special of 393 00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:46,840 Speaker 1: this kid is and when he's getting overlooked like he 394 00:18:46,920 --> 00:18:48,679 Speaker 1: is in this game, when all the money's coming on 395 00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:50,840 Speaker 1: the Bills, this is when you want to back my Homes. 396 00:18:50,840 --> 00:18:52,880 Speaker 1: So I do think we're getting a really good number 397 00:18:52,880 --> 00:18:56,000 Speaker 1: of your chet. I love it unconditionally, like I love 398 00:18:56,040 --> 00:18:59,159 Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell. I'm gonna bring you in here as the 399 00:18:59,240 --> 00:19:03,920 Speaker 1: resident king of Western New York who's worn a Bills poncho, 400 00:19:04,080 --> 00:19:07,560 Speaker 1: sweater or jacket every day since the Bills one. We 401 00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:10,640 Speaker 1: do have some follow ups. The other day, you talked 402 00:19:10,680 --> 00:19:14,800 Speaker 1: about how you wore gloves, surgical gloves while you ate 403 00:19:14,880 --> 00:19:18,160 Speaker 1: your wings. People have questions about that. They also wanted 404 00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:21,080 Speaker 1: follow ups on, uh, the ice cream you've bought from 405 00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:23,840 Speaker 1: your neighbors, which is a tradition. Can you fill people 406 00:19:23,880 --> 00:19:26,000 Speaker 1: in on both? How did you get the gloves? Did 407 00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:28,560 Speaker 1: you sort of put them under a bills poncho after 408 00:19:28,640 --> 00:19:31,800 Speaker 1: your daughter's birth? What was the story there? Yeah? First 409 00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:36,480 Speaker 1: things first, for anyone that is childless in our listenership, 410 00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:39,520 Speaker 1: when you go to the hospital to have a baby, 411 00:19:39,760 --> 00:19:42,639 Speaker 1: first there's a delivery room, which is usually not a 412 00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:46,239 Speaker 1: terribly impressive room, and then there's a postpartum suite you 413 00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:49,360 Speaker 1: are taken to after the baby is born. In that 414 00:19:49,440 --> 00:19:53,280 Speaker 1: polstpartum suite, every single thing in that room that's disposable 415 00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:57,280 Speaker 1: has to be disposed of after you check out whether 416 00:19:57,440 --> 00:19:59,679 Speaker 1: or not you touched it. So for the birth of 417 00:19:59,720 --> 00:20:03,200 Speaker 1: each of children, I stripped that room clean. A lot 418 00:20:03,200 --> 00:20:05,840 Speaker 1: of that stuff comes in very handy, so I took 419 00:20:05,920 --> 00:20:09,560 Speaker 1: all of the gloves, all of the absorbent pads, anything 420 00:20:09,600 --> 00:20:12,400 Speaker 1: that could could come in handy. Like a real Western 421 00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:15,120 Speaker 1: New York scumbag, put him in a giant devil bag, 422 00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:16,720 Speaker 1: walked it right out of there, like I was robbed 423 00:20:16,720 --> 00:20:19,080 Speaker 1: at a bank um and all that stuff has come 424 00:20:19,119 --> 00:20:23,440 Speaker 1: in handy for both medical reasons and wing eating reasons. 425 00:20:23,880 --> 00:20:27,280 Speaker 1: Recommend to anybody that is welcoming the birth of a 426 00:20:27,359 --> 00:20:30,320 Speaker 1: child to remember this when you when you're having your 427 00:20:30,840 --> 00:20:33,920 Speaker 1: hospital experience. And yes, we we didn't touch on the 428 00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:36,679 Speaker 1: ice cream thing. When I moved into my neighborhood here 429 00:20:36,680 --> 00:20:40,240 Speaker 1: in Milwaukee, I let all the neighbors know. Listen when 430 00:20:40,280 --> 00:20:42,120 Speaker 1: the Bills went a playoff game, because at the time 431 00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:45,080 Speaker 1: they hadn't won in in like twenty years. If the 432 00:20:45,080 --> 00:20:47,119 Speaker 1: Bills went a playoff game, I will buy each and 433 00:20:47,160 --> 00:20:49,680 Speaker 1: every one of you a point of Ben and Jerry's. 434 00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:51,560 Speaker 1: You just let me know what you want, my son 435 00:20:51,600 --> 00:20:53,080 Speaker 1: and I will go to the store, will pick it up, 436 00:20:53,080 --> 00:20:55,239 Speaker 1: and then we'll drop the point off to each of you. 437 00:20:55,920 --> 00:20:58,359 Speaker 1: Was really a hearts and minds campaign to try to 438 00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:01,760 Speaker 1: brainwash a lot of Packer fans into being Bill supporters 439 00:21:01,800 --> 00:21:04,399 Speaker 1: as well. And last week people want to get their 440 00:21:04,520 --> 00:21:07,119 Speaker 1: orders in, but they were being very cautious, didn't want 441 00:21:07,160 --> 00:21:10,480 Speaker 1: to count their chickens before they've hatched. But right around 442 00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:15,520 Speaker 1: halftime the tech start coming in. Chunky Monkey, American Dream, 443 00:21:16,160 --> 00:21:20,560 Speaker 1: half Baked second half, the blowouts on Bills are definitely 444 00:21:20,600 --> 00:21:24,560 Speaker 1: gonna win. You know, fish food, some vanilla's in there. 445 00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:27,919 Speaker 1: And I told him, you know, every eligible family, go 446 00:21:27,920 --> 00:21:29,720 Speaker 1: ahead and let me know and we'll drop it up throow. 447 00:21:29,760 --> 00:21:33,160 Speaker 1: And I say eligible because obviously not every family can 448 00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:36,640 Speaker 1: get it. For example, my neighbor Ben, he's a Patriots fan. 449 00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:39,200 Speaker 1: He could need to pile a dogship for all I care. 450 00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:43,600 Speaker 1: He did not get one. So it was really fun. 451 00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:45,240 Speaker 1: It's been a it's been a fun tradition. I put 452 00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:47,199 Speaker 1: on the Bills poncho and I dropped him off at 453 00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:51,000 Speaker 1: each house. Everyone's very, very excited for our potential Bills 454 00:21:51,080 --> 00:21:54,119 Speaker 1: win this weekend. And the final note about that Bill's 455 00:21:54,119 --> 00:21:56,680 Speaker 1: game experience last week was I have a buddy Joey, 456 00:21:56,760 --> 00:21:59,760 Speaker 1: who I go way back with. Bill spent huge Bills fan, 457 00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:02,679 Speaker 1: Western New York. I grew up in Maine. He and 458 00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:05,480 Speaker 1: I text through the entirety of every Bill's game always, 459 00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:08,840 Speaker 1: and this game I've texting him and like nothing, texting 460 00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:11,800 Speaker 1: him nothing. It's like, I hope Joey's okay, hope I 461 00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:15,040 Speaker 1: can't die of alcohol poisoning. Before the game, and at 462 00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:18,240 Speaker 1: halftime he goes, well, funny thing happened, and he sends 463 00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:21,200 Speaker 1: to me a picture and his his wife delivered their 464 00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:24,520 Speaker 1: first baby at kickoff, and that's why he was a 465 00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:26,880 Speaker 1: little bit busy. He said, you know, our first son 466 00:22:27,240 --> 00:22:31,120 Speaker 1: is born just as the prophecy foretold. So I think 467 00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:33,600 Speaker 1: that kind of baby momentum, that's what's giving me a 468 00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:35,720 Speaker 1: lot of a lot of belief that the Bills can 469 00:22:35,800 --> 00:22:38,400 Speaker 1: keep this, keep this going. Here, the moon and the 470 00:22:38,440 --> 00:22:40,639 Speaker 1: tides and the children in the ice cream, everything is 471 00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:42,840 Speaker 1: kind of aligning. So, yeah, it's been a it's been 472 00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:45,320 Speaker 1: a fun time. Here's to Joey. I hope he's still 473 00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:48,479 Speaker 1: a box of surgical bluffs. Yeah, the Joey I know 474 00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:51,960 Speaker 1: probably rented a truck and helped himself to a couple 475 00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:55,760 Speaker 1: of hospital beds too. And the hospital was in Boston, 476 00:22:56,200 --> 00:22:58,600 Speaker 1: I will note, so I don't think he made a 477 00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:03,280 Speaker 1: lot of friends in the birthing and postpartum experience. This 478 00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:07,000 Speaker 1: is the game lines are being drawn. It's really hard 479 00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:10,159 Speaker 1: to bet against the two time defending a f C 480 00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:15,320 Speaker 1: champions at home with a generationally great quarterback when they 481 00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:18,600 Speaker 1: are less than a field goal favorite. Think about that, 482 00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:21,760 Speaker 1: Thinking about that for a second, less than a field 483 00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:26,320 Speaker 1: goal favorite for Patrick Mahomes at home, I know what 484 00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:30,879 Speaker 1: everyone's saying about this Bill's team offensively one of the best, 485 00:23:31,040 --> 00:23:34,080 Speaker 1: defensively one of the best. It is their time sign 486 00:23:34,160 --> 00:23:38,200 Speaker 1: that I thought you made an incredible point. The Bill's 487 00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:42,240 Speaker 1: inability to close out certain teams and be as consistently 488 00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:45,600 Speaker 1: great early in the year, this is when it potentially 489 00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:49,400 Speaker 1: cost them and that Jack's game. That is it right there. 490 00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:54,720 Speaker 1: This is what Divisional playoff weekend is about. This game 491 00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:58,760 Speaker 1: Chiefs short home favorites against the Bills, and why the 492 00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:01,560 Speaker 1: NFL is just the best. Like we went from getting 493 00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:04,119 Speaker 1: Brady and Peyton, Manny and every a f C you know, 494 00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:06,880 Speaker 1: to decide the AFC championship kind of games too. Now 495 00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:09,600 Speaker 1: we have josh Allen Mahomes for the next ten fifty years. 496 00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:12,920 Speaker 1: It's the NFL just reloads up on these dynamic all 497 00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:15,320 Speaker 1: star quarterbacks. And it's like, that's why again, if the 498 00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:17,320 Speaker 1: Bills win, it's gonna hurt me because I'm a loose 499 00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:19,639 Speaker 1: some money. I'll be happy because I like josh On 500 00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:22,280 Speaker 1: a lot, love Bills fans obviously love Matt Mitchell. It's 501 00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:25,160 Speaker 1: it's just a great story that this this Bills teammate, 502 00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:27,360 Speaker 1: the team that choked four straight Super Bowls. This team 503 00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:29,040 Speaker 1: if they get if they get over this demon, this 504 00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:31,880 Speaker 1: hump of this Chiefs team that keeps taking them down. 505 00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:34,760 Speaker 1: I mean, how can we not again? We'll deal the 506 00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:36,639 Speaker 1: next week, but this is might be a team of 507 00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:38,239 Speaker 1: destiny and this Bills team if they can pull off 508 00:24:38,240 --> 00:24:40,679 Speaker 1: the upset in my heart every time I talk about it, 509 00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:43,760 Speaker 1: I really want the Bills to win me too. This 510 00:24:43,800 --> 00:24:45,680 Speaker 1: game is down to one and a half. By the way, 511 00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:47,840 Speaker 1: just don't forget the sharp money. The smart money is 512 00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:49,840 Speaker 1: on the under in that game total. I am on 513 00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:52,679 Speaker 1: the over, but they're really smart. Professional money is on 514 00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:55,239 Speaker 1: the under. It's on. It's on the under fifty four 515 00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:59,000 Speaker 1: and a half. The NFL playoffs are in full gear 516 00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:01,720 Speaker 1: and everyone can get in on the action with a 517 00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:04,879 Speaker 1: risk free bet on Fan Duels sports Book. It doesn't 518 00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:07,679 Speaker 1: matter if you're new to FanDuel or already have an account. 519 00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:11,560 Speaker 1: All customers get up to ten dollars back if your 520 00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:15,640 Speaker 1: same game parlay doesn't win. 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Same game probably available for 543 00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:41,800 Speaker 1: multiple sports in all states on mobile and web. Gambling 544 00:26:41,840 --> 00:26:45,200 Speaker 1: problem called one eight hundred next step or text next 545 00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:48,080 Speaker 1: step to five three three four two in Arizona one 546 00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:51,280 Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or visit FanDuel dot com slash RG 547 00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:55,400 Speaker 1: in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey. In Virginia one eight eight 548 00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:58,920 Speaker 1: seven eight nine seven seven seven seven, or visit CCPG 549 00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:04,280 Speaker 1: dot org slash chat in Connecticut one seven zero seven 550 00:27:04,720 --> 00:27:07,800 Speaker 1: seven for confidential help. In Michigan one eight seven seven 551 00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:11,000 Speaker 1: eight Hope and why or text hope and why in 552 00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:13,880 Speaker 1: New York called the Tennessee Red Line one eight eight 553 00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:17,440 Speaker 1: eight nine eight nine or visit one eight hundred gambler 554 00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:25,160 Speaker 1: dot net. In West Virginia, the Rams and Tampa Bay. 555 00:27:25,280 --> 00:27:29,040 Speaker 1: You're telling me that everybody is coming on the box professionally, 556 00:27:29,520 --> 00:27:31,320 Speaker 1: and it doesn't make any sense to me. I did 557 00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:34,520 Speaker 1: bet the Rams at plus three early this morning. The 558 00:27:34,600 --> 00:27:37,000 Speaker 1: line is down to two and a half now, and 559 00:27:37,119 --> 00:27:39,920 Speaker 1: so you're telling me a lot of money coming out 560 00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:42,639 Speaker 1: on the box, which surprises me given the movement of 561 00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:45,800 Speaker 1: the line, Given this was a game we talked about 562 00:27:45,800 --> 00:27:47,800 Speaker 1: the other day on Tuesday, people were gonna wait to 563 00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:50,000 Speaker 1: see what was going on with the injuries on the 564 00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:54,240 Speaker 1: offensive line. Yesterday Tristan Worths and Ryan Jensen did not practice. 565 00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:58,360 Speaker 1: Doesn't mean they won't play, but they could barely protect 566 00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:00,760 Speaker 1: Tom Brady against the Eagles, who don't have a very 567 00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:04,040 Speaker 1: good pass rush, Von Miller and Aaron Donald and a 568 00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:07,920 Speaker 1: defensive secondary even with Eric Eric Weddell. It's a much 569 00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:12,119 Speaker 1: better defense against a really banged up offense. Yeah, and again, 570 00:28:12,119 --> 00:28:14,960 Speaker 1: I think the professional money is, who the hell is 571 00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:19,240 Speaker 1: Stafford to be catching less than three or three Brady? 572 00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:21,399 Speaker 1: And that's what I said to them. I said, listen, 573 00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:24,920 Speaker 1: I get it. That's a fair, fair excuse. But when 574 00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:26,280 Speaker 1: I'm when I'm looking at the numbers, like you just 575 00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:29,399 Speaker 1: talk the offensive line. He basically Bruce Arian said, these 576 00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:32,040 Speaker 1: guys are in practice no matter what till Friday. So 577 00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:34,440 Speaker 1: when I'm when I'm reading the cliff notes and reading 578 00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:37,280 Speaker 1: about what the reporters are saying for the Buccaneers, it 579 00:28:37,320 --> 00:28:39,320 Speaker 1: feels like that center is gonna play. The center will 580 00:28:39,320 --> 00:28:43,040 Speaker 1: be back healthy. The left hack like Kristen again, he's 581 00:28:43,040 --> 00:28:45,600 Speaker 1: all pro. He's gonna be out like, I really don't 582 00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:50,680 Speaker 1: think he's gonna play. He's really yeah, in a walking 583 00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:53,680 Speaker 1: boot all week. It's Thursday. This man weighs over three 584 00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:56,040 Speaker 1: hundred pounds, Like if he needs a walking boot to 585 00:28:56,040 --> 00:28:57,640 Speaker 1: get around, I don't know if that ankle is gonna 586 00:28:57,640 --> 00:28:59,520 Speaker 1: hold up again, he tried coming back in the game, 587 00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:02,000 Speaker 1: wouldn't had the adrenaline and have gotten a shot, And 588 00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:04,320 Speaker 1: he couldn't do it, Like he could not put like 589 00:29:04,320 --> 00:29:06,960 Speaker 1: put weight onto that ankle. So I do think the 590 00:29:07,000 --> 00:29:08,800 Speaker 1: center way back. But that's a big deal of that 591 00:29:08,800 --> 00:29:11,200 Speaker 1: guy being out on the left side. So you just 592 00:29:11,240 --> 00:29:13,120 Speaker 1: talked on a chat. I mean we're gonna be sitting 593 00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:14,959 Speaker 1: here on Tuesday. I'm gonna feel like a freaking idiot 594 00:29:15,040 --> 00:29:18,000 Speaker 1: taking this Rams team against Brady. Like it's it's that simple. 595 00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:20,720 Speaker 1: But I can't. I have to take the better team 596 00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:24,000 Speaker 1: in this position. I just like the Rams. I feel 597 00:29:24,040 --> 00:29:26,480 Speaker 1: like they're they've earned it to me that this line 598 00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:28,840 Speaker 1: should be closer towards a pick. The value was trying 599 00:29:28,880 --> 00:29:31,440 Speaker 1: to shift towards Brady. Like if this number gets too 600 00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:34,840 Speaker 1: by my system account, like that's where the value is. 601 00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:37,480 Speaker 1: It's on the Brady. It's on taking Brady. But I'm 602 00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:40,040 Speaker 1: on the Rams. I just like the Rams. I'm split 603 00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:42,000 Speaker 1: this week. I'm on two favorites, two dogs. It's one 604 00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:43,920 Speaker 1: of the dogs. I like. If you can't get the 605 00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:46,760 Speaker 1: three anymore with this Tramps team, like Chad said, just 606 00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:49,280 Speaker 1: take the moneyline, like you're you're betting them at such 607 00:29:49,280 --> 00:29:51,120 Speaker 1: a short number like this, you just take the money 608 00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:55,160 Speaker 1: line in this position. So Stafford with Cooper Cup, Odell Beckham, 609 00:29:55,200 --> 00:29:58,400 Speaker 1: who looked great last week, this is his game. Like this, 610 00:29:58,400 --> 00:30:01,200 Speaker 1: This secondary of the Buccaneers team, they are terrible. They're 611 00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:03,920 Speaker 1: down to fifth and six string starters on the cornerbacks 612 00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:06,800 Speaker 1: right now. So you have to arguably the best receiver 613 00:30:06,840 --> 00:30:09,480 Speaker 1: that we've ever seen play football in Cooper Cup and 614 00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:12,400 Speaker 1: you know flashes of brilliance from Odell Beckham. Stafford, you 615 00:30:12,480 --> 00:30:14,040 Speaker 1: gotta do it this week. You're not gonna have Sony 616 00:30:14,120 --> 00:30:16,280 Speaker 1: Michelle running over this team like you're not winning like 617 00:30:16,320 --> 00:30:18,960 Speaker 1: you were against the Cardinals. They're We're gonna need Stafford 618 00:30:19,000 --> 00:30:22,640 Speaker 1: to step up and win us this game. So it's scary, Chad, 619 00:30:22,680 --> 00:30:25,040 Speaker 1: but I'm doing it. But I believe in this Rams tea. 620 00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:27,920 Speaker 1: I'm taking that number. It's also scary when you do 621 00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:30,520 Speaker 1: this look we we. I like the Titans, I like 622 00:30:30,560 --> 00:30:33,360 Speaker 1: the Chiefs, I like the Rams. You know, it's not 623 00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:36,160 Speaker 1: going to be another weekend where it's sort of predominantly favorites, 624 00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:38,880 Speaker 1: and so it's just scary to think, are we on 625 00:30:39,160 --> 00:30:43,040 Speaker 1: every wrong side? Like he's gonna be the Bengals and 626 00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:46,040 Speaker 1: the Bucks and the Bills, and then we haven't talked 627 00:30:46,040 --> 00:30:49,320 Speaker 1: about the Packers and the rent and the Niners yet. 628 00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:51,120 Speaker 1: But I like the Rams here too. I bet, I 629 00:30:51,160 --> 00:30:54,200 Speaker 1: bet the Rams. I'll put it in the Action Network app. Man, 630 00:30:54,320 --> 00:30:56,520 Speaker 1: Like you could argue every week you need the bounces 631 00:30:56,560 --> 00:30:59,280 Speaker 1: to go your way. This is the like all these 632 00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:02,400 Speaker 1: teams are so close. Again, the actually never keeps tweeting out. 633 00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:05,160 Speaker 1: This is the shortest lines all combined ever since what 634 00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:08,920 Speaker 1: n like this is. This is one of the best 635 00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:12,240 Speaker 1: division rounds we've had in a long time. Just max 636 00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:15,640 Speaker 1: competitive edges on both teams. So you're you're dead on chat, 637 00:31:15,720 --> 00:31:18,160 Speaker 1: like we're gonna need bounces to go our way to 638 00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:20,720 Speaker 1: for us to win and cover these numbers like four 639 00:31:20,760 --> 00:31:23,720 Speaker 1: no this week. That's just pure luck. Like I could 640 00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:25,479 Speaker 1: act like I have all the school in the world. Now, 641 00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:27,000 Speaker 1: that's pure luck. If you're going to four and all 642 00:31:27,120 --> 00:31:29,960 Speaker 1: this week because all these teams match up so well 643 00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:32,440 Speaker 1: with one another. The stat that you're referring to is 644 00:31:32,760 --> 00:31:37,960 Speaker 1: this weekend, the combined total for the point spreads in 645 00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:40,840 Speaker 1: all four games is below fourteen, which is the first 646 00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:44,600 Speaker 1: time that's happened. I love the under. I know a 647 00:31:44,600 --> 00:31:46,280 Speaker 1: bunch of professionals. They really like the under in this 648 00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:50,000 Speaker 1: matchup between the Rams, and we've seen what this Rams 649 00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:52,880 Speaker 1: defense can do, like shut down that Cardinals team like 650 00:31:52,920 --> 00:31:54,680 Speaker 1: it was nothing last week. Obviously they're not gonna do 651 00:31:54,720 --> 00:31:58,320 Speaker 1: that against Tom Brady. But with Matthew Stafford, shakiness and 652 00:31:58,840 --> 00:32:01,040 Speaker 1: Tom Brady go up against I'm much better defense and 653 00:32:01,080 --> 00:32:03,360 Speaker 1: that Eagles team again, I don't think you're being a 654 00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:06,240 Speaker 1: lot of short fields against this Rams team. Uh, hopefully 655 00:32:06,240 --> 00:32:09,080 Speaker 1: with Stafford. So I like them. I'm with the pros 656 00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:11,760 Speaker 1: on that right now, sitting at forty and a half 657 00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:14,320 Speaker 1: forty nine, I take this down to forty seven, So 658 00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:16,640 Speaker 1: that's like, that's a good number taking that under. All right, 659 00:32:16,760 --> 00:32:19,280 Speaker 1: last game on the board, San Francisco forty Niners visiting 660 00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:23,360 Speaker 1: the Green Bay Packers. The Niners are six point underdogs. Uh, 661 00:32:23,440 --> 00:32:26,320 Speaker 1: you would alluded to the other day conversations that are 662 00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:30,160 Speaker 1: happening about Jimmy G's health. There hasn't been anything official 663 00:32:30,240 --> 00:32:33,000 Speaker 1: that's come out, but there's still continues to be a 664 00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:36,920 Speaker 1: lot of chatter about how healthy he is, not to 665 00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:39,320 Speaker 1: the point that Trey Lance is gonna play just sort 666 00:32:39,360 --> 00:32:43,200 Speaker 1: of his ability to execute um, which is making me 667 00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:46,600 Speaker 1: very anxious about betting the Niners a plus six. I'll 668 00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:48,720 Speaker 1: read to me to clip out you practice yesterday, Jimmy 669 00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:51,600 Speaker 1: have looked like a really good zip on the ball. Again, 670 00:32:51,640 --> 00:32:54,479 Speaker 1: It's hard to say because who knows what his injury is, 671 00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:56,600 Speaker 1: but the rumors are like that even I've seen even 672 00:32:56,600 --> 00:32:58,880 Speaker 1: their being waters right about it. It's a shoulder. It's 673 00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:00,720 Speaker 1: just throwing shoulder that he got all will banged up on. 674 00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:03,400 Speaker 1: Didn't look like much stuff. Again in that practice, he 675 00:33:03,440 --> 00:33:05,240 Speaker 1: had good zip on the ball. Wasn't throwing it at 676 00:33:05,240 --> 00:33:08,000 Speaker 1: guy's feet, wasn't thrown over their head, putting in their chest, 677 00:33:08,080 --> 00:33:10,360 Speaker 1: ran their hands by their heads. Like, as long as 678 00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:11,960 Speaker 1: he has accuracy and the ball is coming out of 679 00:33:11,960 --> 00:33:15,360 Speaker 1: his hand quick, I'm back on the four nine. I 680 00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:17,960 Speaker 1: think Jimmy he did exactly what I needed to see. 681 00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:21,360 Speaker 1: I needed to see him look healthy, make passes and 682 00:33:21,440 --> 00:33:24,000 Speaker 1: not just be like a lazy you know, practice two 683 00:33:24,000 --> 00:33:26,680 Speaker 1: step drop just throwing it, like really seeing him put 684 00:33:26,760 --> 00:33:29,520 Speaker 1: some you know behind his passes and really throw a 685 00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:32,520 Speaker 1: tight spiral. Look good like, looked exactly what I expect 686 00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:35,560 Speaker 1: Jimmy to look like. So nothing changed, buddy, I'm going 687 00:33:35,640 --> 00:33:38,880 Speaker 1: to probably sprinkle more on the first half money line 688 00:33:38,880 --> 00:33:41,440 Speaker 1: for this four nine team. I am full game just 689 00:33:41,520 --> 00:33:44,640 Speaker 1: because again I've talked to a bunch of pros. They're right, 690 00:33:44,680 --> 00:33:46,560 Speaker 1: like I'm I might be buying too much into my 691 00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:48,680 Speaker 1: own future in this FOURT ninis team that they're gonna 692 00:33:48,680 --> 00:33:51,600 Speaker 1: pull the actual upset off with Green Bay. That's it's 693 00:33:51,640 --> 00:33:54,080 Speaker 1: fair argument to say it's Aaron Rodgers year. Again he's 694 00:33:54,080 --> 00:33:57,240 Speaker 1: at m v P. They're they're the best team of football. 695 00:33:57,240 --> 00:33:59,120 Speaker 1: Like when they're fully healthy, all their pieces that are there, 696 00:33:59,120 --> 00:34:02,000 Speaker 1: they're the best team. We talked all that show about. 697 00:34:02,040 --> 00:34:05,720 Speaker 1: Their weakness is running. They cannot stop the run. On defense. 698 00:34:06,120 --> 00:34:09,399 Speaker 1: We saw this foreigners team to that guy Dallas Cowboys team, 699 00:34:09,480 --> 00:34:11,680 Speaker 1: they made Deck sit on his ass. He couldn't get 700 00:34:11,680 --> 00:34:13,480 Speaker 1: a rhythm. The man could not find a rhythm. You 701 00:34:13,520 --> 00:34:15,520 Speaker 1: saw once he found a rhythm was in the fourth 702 00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:18,279 Speaker 1: quarter because they kept getting short fields, and they kept 703 00:34:18,280 --> 00:34:20,080 Speaker 1: getting the ball and they had more time with the ball. 704 00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:22,400 Speaker 1: This is the this is the formula to beat this 705 00:34:22,520 --> 00:34:25,759 Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers team. Like Aaron Rodgers, we've seen it when 706 00:34:25,960 --> 00:34:28,520 Speaker 1: like they lost that Buccaneers the Bucks. Yeah, they got 707 00:34:28,640 --> 00:34:31,040 Speaker 1: lucky that Scotty Miller touched on before halftime last year 708 00:34:31,040 --> 00:34:34,800 Speaker 1: and the NFC Championship game, but they also ball controlled. 709 00:34:35,040 --> 00:34:37,120 Speaker 1: They really ball controlled that game and kept Rodgers off 710 00:34:37,200 --> 00:34:38,840 Speaker 1: the field. He made a little comeback at the end 711 00:34:38,840 --> 00:34:40,279 Speaker 1: of the game once he got into rhythm, but again 712 00:34:40,280 --> 00:34:42,560 Speaker 1: it was too late by then. So looking at his four, 713 00:34:42,640 --> 00:34:45,640 Speaker 1: nineis team, I have to believe that there their run 714 00:34:45,680 --> 00:34:47,680 Speaker 1: game is gonna make this game close. Like six is 715 00:34:47,680 --> 00:34:50,040 Speaker 1: such a big number, Like I really can't believe. It's 716 00:34:50,040 --> 00:34:52,200 Speaker 1: just sitting up there. That's what I kind of feel 717 00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:54,160 Speaker 1: like a little bit like a fool take in it. 718 00:34:54,560 --> 00:34:56,560 Speaker 1: But then I look at the numbers and it's it's 719 00:34:56,640 --> 00:34:59,160 Speaker 1: looks like it's public and sharp money coming in heavy 720 00:34:59,160 --> 00:35:02,800 Speaker 1: on Green Bay and in the playoffs, it's usually good 721 00:35:02,880 --> 00:35:04,600 Speaker 1: to be on the opposite side of the public and 722 00:35:04,640 --> 00:35:08,080 Speaker 1: the professionals. The bookmakers usually know what they're doing. So 723 00:35:08,520 --> 00:35:10,600 Speaker 1: unless this number shoots all up to seven, six and 724 00:35:10,600 --> 00:35:13,360 Speaker 1: a half. I'm feeling pretty damn good about taking a 725 00:35:13,400 --> 00:35:15,400 Speaker 1: six year. That's a fair number, that's a that's a 726 00:35:15,440 --> 00:35:18,399 Speaker 1: really sharp number. Two Because again we talked about time Chad, 727 00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:21,120 Speaker 1: it lands on six often. Okay, it doesn't really land 728 00:35:21,160 --> 00:35:24,480 Speaker 1: on seven. It's more likely laid on six. I love 729 00:35:24,520 --> 00:35:27,359 Speaker 1: the value there. Not again, not gonna put as much 730 00:35:27,400 --> 00:35:29,360 Speaker 1: on the full game money line, just because I have 731 00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:32,760 Speaker 1: a futures with the four nineers, but first half money line. 732 00:35:32,920 --> 00:35:35,520 Speaker 1: Green Bay coming out slow after extended rest against the 733 00:35:35,560 --> 00:35:39,880 Speaker 1: team for nineers that they're ready for this. Like again Shanahan, 734 00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:44,480 Speaker 1: he's really dominated his ex existence and the four they 735 00:35:44,480 --> 00:35:47,440 Speaker 1: beat him this past season thirty eight against the four Nins. 736 00:35:47,480 --> 00:35:49,480 Speaker 1: We talked about that. Green Bay had some miracle play 737 00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:51,560 Speaker 1: at the end with Rogers to get that field goal 738 00:35:51,640 --> 00:35:54,120 Speaker 1: to win that game. We know the four Niners were 739 00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:57,040 Speaker 1: not good to start the year. They're much much better now, 740 00:35:57,440 --> 00:36:00,319 Speaker 1: much more confident. Nick Bosa also is pract this thing 741 00:36:00,360 --> 00:36:01,840 Speaker 1: we're not practicing, but he was on the field with 742 00:36:01,840 --> 00:36:06,120 Speaker 1: his helmet yesterday. Um going through concussion protocols. Fred Warrener 743 00:36:06,200 --> 00:36:08,120 Speaker 1: supposed to be back to for this four hours defense, 744 00:36:08,520 --> 00:36:11,080 Speaker 1: Big big deals to me for this team. So I'm 745 00:36:11,239 --> 00:36:12,960 Speaker 1: I'm sticking to it. Chat. I believe in this four 746 00:36:13,080 --> 00:36:15,759 Speaker 1: Niners team. I still think they have a really good 747 00:36:15,840 --> 00:36:17,879 Speaker 1: chance and went out right. But taking that six, that's 748 00:36:17,920 --> 00:36:20,600 Speaker 1: the smart player. You take that number. Yeah, it's funny. 749 00:36:20,640 --> 00:36:24,120 Speaker 1: It's the one game that I just cannot seem to 750 00:36:24,239 --> 00:36:27,920 Speaker 1: get behind. And I normally have so much confidence betting 751 00:36:27,920 --> 00:36:30,839 Speaker 1: the Niners as a big dog, and I don't know 752 00:36:30,840 --> 00:36:34,160 Speaker 1: why I'm having a hard time, you know, because Jimmy, 753 00:36:34,239 --> 00:36:36,680 Speaker 1: Jimmy g playing in what is the five degrees in 754 00:36:36,800 --> 00:36:40,239 Speaker 1: Green Bay for Sunday It'll be two degrees and wind 755 00:36:40,239 --> 00:36:44,319 Speaker 1: shield below zero. So fuck, I'm scared too, buddy. But 756 00:36:44,360 --> 00:36:46,239 Speaker 1: it's like I got it. Like we saw last week, 757 00:36:46,280 --> 00:36:49,920 Speaker 1: Shanahan's run blocking scheme, they dominated Dallas. I'm running that 758 00:36:49,960 --> 00:36:52,239 Speaker 1: ball and that's what I have to believe in. It's 759 00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:55,359 Speaker 1: like this guy, yeah, he's one of the worst ever 760 00:36:55,520 --> 00:36:57,560 Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter and this he can choke away. 761 00:36:57,560 --> 00:37:00,839 Speaker 1: I win like nobody. But taking of six points, that's 762 00:37:00,880 --> 00:37:02,759 Speaker 1: just a lot of points for Shanehan in the playoffs. 763 00:37:02,960 --> 00:37:05,440 Speaker 1: All right, all right, let's say for our big ball 764 00:37:05,480 --> 00:37:09,320 Speaker 1: is bet you like say I was gonna say Kansas 765 00:37:09,360 --> 00:37:13,120 Speaker 1: City Chiefs. Yeah, yeah, no, that's that's that's fair because 766 00:37:13,120 --> 00:37:16,440 Speaker 1: we're going against really really smart groups taking that number. 767 00:37:16,600 --> 00:37:19,640 Speaker 1: Yeah like that. To me, it feels like it. That 768 00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:24,279 Speaker 1: feels like the foxhole and the big Balls better the 769 00:37:24,320 --> 00:37:29,239 Speaker 1: week because everybody is against us, like we have not 770 00:37:29,400 --> 00:37:32,440 Speaker 1: heard from our collective sources, and we have entirely different 771 00:37:32,440 --> 00:37:35,879 Speaker 1: sources than anybody is liking the Chiefs in this game. 772 00:37:36,040 --> 00:37:38,680 Speaker 1: Everybody seems to love the Bills. And here we are. 773 00:37:41,560 --> 00:37:48,680 Speaker 1: Let's clide down into the foxhole. How is it that 774 00:37:48,920 --> 00:37:52,080 Speaker 1: the big Balls bet of the week is one of 775 00:37:52,120 --> 00:37:55,399 Speaker 1: the best teams of this generation? I don't know. How 776 00:37:55,400 --> 00:37:57,680 Speaker 1: are we alone? How are we in a fucking foxhole? 777 00:37:57,840 --> 00:38:00,000 Speaker 1: I don't know, But we are with the Kansas City 778 00:38:00,080 --> 00:38:02,160 Speaker 1: Chiefs minus two minus one and a half against the 779 00:38:02,160 --> 00:38:06,239 Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills. My man, all right, Tennessee minus three and 780 00:38:06,280 --> 00:38:12,000 Speaker 1: a half, Chiefs minus two, Niners plus six Rams plus 781 00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:17,640 Speaker 1: three two favorites, two dogs, a f C favorites, NFC dogs. 782 00:38:17,680 --> 00:38:20,319 Speaker 1: This could go a million different ways. It could all 783 00:38:20,400 --> 00:38:23,959 Speaker 1: go against us, Simon. We just don't know. I would 784 00:38:24,000 --> 00:38:26,640 Speaker 1: be shocked if you follow me and my players go 785 00:38:26,880 --> 00:38:29,160 Speaker 1: blow five dred this week. I just really like the 786 00:38:29,200 --> 00:38:31,759 Speaker 1: sides ronning. I like the total is like again, I 787 00:38:31,800 --> 00:38:34,520 Speaker 1: got three unders one over, I might as well be 788 00:38:34,560 --> 00:38:36,759 Speaker 1: four unders, like I I could flip come game time. 789 00:38:36,760 --> 00:38:38,399 Speaker 1: But I can tell you right now, Mice, I made 790 00:38:38,440 --> 00:38:40,880 Speaker 1: a small bout in the over just because I just 791 00:38:40,880 --> 00:38:43,040 Speaker 1: really don't want to be cheering for an under. My 792 00:38:43,120 --> 00:38:48,120 Speaker 1: homes first, Josh Allen matchup. You're unders our Cincinnati, Tennessee 793 00:38:48,200 --> 00:38:52,120 Speaker 1: under forty seven. It's Green Bay, San Francisco under forty seven, 794 00:38:52,360 --> 00:38:54,279 Speaker 1: Tampa l A under forty eight and a half, and 795 00:38:54,280 --> 00:38:57,280 Speaker 1: you like over fifty four and a half in Kansas City, Buffalo. 796 00:38:57,800 --> 00:39:00,279 Speaker 1: Follow everything. We're doing the Action Network Gap. We also 797 00:39:00,280 --> 00:39:04,280 Speaker 1: put our picks in the phaves five in the Action 798 00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:07,520 Speaker 1: Network Gap, the fhaves five. We will put those in 799 00:39:08,239 --> 00:39:14,160 Speaker 1: Sunday morning after we do our show, commits me on 800 00:39:14,400 --> 00:39:17,320 Speaker 1: Action Network HQ. It is live. It is not a podcast. 801 00:39:17,680 --> 00:39:20,440 Speaker 1: Watch it on Twitter, watch it on YouTube. We'll discuss 802 00:39:20,560 --> 00:39:23,040 Speaker 1: what's happening in the moment in real time with the 803 00:39:23,040 --> 00:39:25,800 Speaker 1: most up to date lines. We will put our picks 804 00:39:25,800 --> 00:39:28,640 Speaker 1: in after that. You know what time they're doing it 805 00:39:28,680 --> 00:39:34,439 Speaker 1: on Saturday. Convince me Saturday. We're discussing it's probably gonna 806 00:39:34,440 --> 00:39:36,239 Speaker 1: be nude, so let's hold off on that for now, 807 00:39:36,719 --> 00:39:39,560 Speaker 1: all right. Just yeah, you check check our twitters, we'll 808 00:39:39,560 --> 00:39:41,640 Speaker 1: post what time. Check our twitter's. We'll probably do it 809 00:39:41,640 --> 00:39:44,319 Speaker 1: at noon on Saturday. It's all she wrote for me, 810 00:39:44,480 --> 00:39:48,279 Speaker 1: Chad Millman, for Simon Hunter, Micha and Padre. This has 811 00:39:48,280 --> 00:39:52,720 Speaker 1: been the Favorites podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. Download 812 00:39:52,800 --> 00:39:56,879 Speaker 1: us on Apple, on Spotify, rate US, review us, give 813 00:39:56,960 --> 00:39:58,919 Speaker 1: us five stars, but say, whatever the funk you want, 814 00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:05,759 Speaker 1: talk to you on Tuesday. I love you, hm, hm