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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast podcast. All Right,

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Speaker 1: here we go.

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Speaker 2: Fifteen cuny twenty five, thirty thirty five, forty forty five fifty.

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Speaker 3: And the kick as block Book College Football World Stundard,

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Speaker 3: Oh my goodness, he stumbled, and football the lateral turn,

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Speaker 3: the corner on the inside. Don't you believe I take

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Speaker 3: them up the field tonight. It's not the side of

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Speaker 3: the dog in the fight.

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Speaker 1: It's the side of the fight in the room.

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Speaker 2: What's up the gener Nation? Welcome to the Big Bets

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Speaker 2: on Campus Podcast presented by Bett and GM. This is

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Speaker 2: the Week twelve college football betting preview. I'm Stucky in

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Speaker 2: joining me, as always is Colin Wilson. This season has

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Speaker 2: flown by. We're going to go through Saturday, the last

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Speaker 2: massive Saturday slated the season, since next week is kind

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Speaker 2: of broken out to Friday and Saturday. How do we

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Speaker 2: get here? Already?

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Speaker 1: It feels like it's flown by. But there is something

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Speaker 1: about this weekend. I just feel like there's something in

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Speaker 1: the air where we're going to get some crazy upsets.

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Speaker 1: There are just teams that have six wins, seven wins,

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Speaker 1: are comfortable with their position. There are teams sitting on

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Speaker 1: four wins that need these weekends, and they're you know,

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Speaker 1: double digit underdogs. We got some upsets coming this weekend.

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Speaker 2: Ten years ago to the day, number one Kansas State,

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Speaker 2: believe it or not, went down fifty two to twenty

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Speaker 2: four to Baylor at home. Baylor was under five hundred

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Speaker 2: at the time, and number two Oregon went down seventeen

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Speaker 2: to fourteen at home to Stanford in overtime. Ten years ago. Today,

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Speaker 2: number one and number two lost easier matchups this week.

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Speaker 2: But you never know for the top, but you never

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Speaker 2: know in college football. All right, let's stop everyther We're

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Speaker 2: gonna get the twenty five games total. We will get

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Speaker 2: to Saturday in just a moment. We'll go through the

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Speaker 2: marquee games, go quick, rundown, talk a bunch of weathergains.

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Speaker 2: I have a ton of trash. It's the last big

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Speaker 2: Saturday slate, soe you no, I'm coming full of trash

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Speaker 2: for my people. Then we will get into our best bets,

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Speaker 2: favorite favorites, which last week you almost got off the

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Speaker 2: shote and there was a Hail Mary by Rutgers unbelievable,

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Speaker 2: and then our favorite underdog money lines. But let's start

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Speaker 2: out with Friday night lights. It is a light Friday

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Speaker 2: night Slate.

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Speaker 1: Let's here, gentlemen, clear eyes, full hearts.

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Speaker 2: Hey, let's go play some football. We have two games,

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Speaker 2: South Florida at Tulsa. Tulsa's a thirteen and a half

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Speaker 2: point favorite over under fifty eight, and then we have

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Speaker 2: San Diego State at New Mexico. New Mexico a fourteen

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Speaker 2: point home underdog over under thirty six and a half.

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Speaker 2: You know, I think I would like South Florida if

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Speaker 2: I could get over two touchdowns maybe live. I think

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Speaker 2: they're still fighting. I think they can have some success

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Speaker 2: on the ground, and I'm not sure where Tulsa's at

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Speaker 2: mentally lost that game the Memphis which knocked him out

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Speaker 2: of bulk atetch of their three and seven, So, you know,

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Speaker 2: another playing lowly South Florida. It was one of the

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Speaker 2: worst secondaries in the country, but they looked like they

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Speaker 2: were playing for their interim coach last year? Was that

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Speaker 2: just last week? Was that just a one week bump?

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Speaker 2: Does Tulsa kind of take out their frustrations their final

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Speaker 2: home game or are they flat? How healthy is Davis Brinn?

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Speaker 2: A lot of questions in this game? What do you

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Speaker 2: see here?

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Speaker 3: To me?

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Speaker 1: There's one team that's playing hard and there's one team

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Speaker 1: that's not. I mean South Florida maybe one to nine

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Speaker 1: on the season, but Tulsa is tanking. I mean they've

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Speaker 1: just won one game in their last seven. They haven't

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Speaker 1: covered since September. And Tulsa's off a awesome Memphis where

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Speaker 1: the game was stopped multiple times because of on field fighting.

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Speaker 1: I don't know where the headspace is on this team.

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Speaker 1: And you look at the Bulls, I mean they're going

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Speaker 1: to turn to Byron Brown to start. He has just

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Speaker 1: five passing attempts this season. He's a three star pro

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Speaker 1: style quarterback. He had offers from ODU, UCF, Georgia State.

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Speaker 1: Not really sure what we're getting at the quarterback position

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Speaker 1: from South Florida. He did leave the Bulls to a

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Speaker 1: TD on the last drive, which I think is why

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Speaker 1: you saw some steam on the Bulls from fourteen early

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Speaker 1: in the week. On this point spread. South Florida is

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Speaker 1: generally a run team fifty six percent rush rate. The

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Speaker 1: question is will Davis Brinn even play he.

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Speaker 2: Comes out he got benched. I mean they're offensive line

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Speaker 2: dread to benched.

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Speaker 1: In effectiveness, shoulder injury, We're not sure what's going on

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Speaker 1: there were brayln back Braxton comes in. He's been terrible,

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Speaker 1: like he has not contributed to the ground like I

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Speaker 1: thought he could, and he's only completing half of his

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Speaker 1: pass as the last two games. He's just been a

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Speaker 1: non factor. So I make this game eleven. South Florida

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Speaker 1: is the only team out of this game that's giving

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Speaker 1: effort in the last couple weeks. Maybe it is the interim,

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Speaker 1: Maybe these kids are playing for pride. They're the only

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Speaker 1: ones giving effort. They covered Houston and Sincy and within

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Speaker 1: the last five games. So it's gonna be thirty one

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Speaker 1: degrees at Skelly Field here in town. I know people

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Speaker 1: think that's really cold for Florida people, But at the

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Speaker 1: same time, I've been working all day with my window open.

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Speaker 1: I don't think it's that cold. So I think it's

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Speaker 1: going to be a slow star. But at the same time,

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Speaker 1: I think south Ward is the only one you can

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Speaker 1: play in this game because they're the only one that's

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Speaker 1: trying lately.

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Speaker 2: The other game on Friday Night, will get to talk

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Speaker 2: about your San Diego State total earlier the show than usual.

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Speaker 2: San Diego State at New Mexico, New Mexico fourteen fourteen

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Speaker 2: and a half point underdog at home over under thirty

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Speaker 2: six and a half. You know you got to have

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Speaker 2: a bad offense if you're a fourteen and a half

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Speaker 2: point home underdog with a total of thirty six and

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Speaker 2: a half. Are we back to San Diego State overs?

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Speaker 1: Well? We are. The problem is is that over for

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Speaker 1: the full game requires New Mexico to score some points

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Speaker 1: and I'm not sure that they can. So I went

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Speaker 1: on Green Dot Daily earlier day and said that I'm

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Speaker 1: taking San Diego State team total over. But this thing

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Speaker 1: keeps crashing the side of the totals crashing, and I

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Speaker 1: think San Diego State is going to roll here. And

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Speaker 1: Jalen Madden has been great at starting quarterback. He has

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Speaker 1: made offensive coordinator Jeff Hecklinsky changed the way that San

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Speaker 1: Diego State runs their offense. They were more of a

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Speaker 1: run first, play action deep verticals and now they've changed

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Speaker 1: to short passing and they're allowing Jalen Maiden to run

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Speaker 1: as much as he wants. He's had at least three

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Speaker 1: scrambles in every game. It's really given a lot of

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Speaker 1: teams problems and the results are there for themselves. Four

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Speaker 1: wins a narrow four point loss to Fresno out of

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Speaker 1: their last five games. They're averaging twenty five points per

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Speaker 1: game over the last month, and San Diego State is

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Speaker 1: just playing an offense suited for their new quarterback. They

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Speaker 1: think about this when you look at San Diego State's

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Speaker 1: team total, which I think could drop another point before

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Speaker 1: we get to Friday night, because the total keeps going down.

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Speaker 1: There's only one team on New Mexico's schedule that scored

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Speaker 1: less than twenty seven points. One team, and that was

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Speaker 1: New Mexico State. Every other team on that schedule scored

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Speaker 1: at least twenty seven. So I'm waiting let that number

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Speaker 1: keep crashing thirty six right now, as you and I record,

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Speaker 1: I'll take a team to a little run in San

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Speaker 1: Diego State as close as we get Mexico.

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Speaker 2: One of the most underrated safeties in college football, I

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Speaker 2: think is actually going to end up playing on Sundays.

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Speaker 2: That's the only thing that I could say good about

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Speaker 2: New Mexico. And when you play them, they will score

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Speaker 2: for the other team, which has ultimately kept me off

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Speaker 2: of You know, they'll turn it over, they'll throw pick sixes,

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Speaker 2: they'll they took out a kick to the one and

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Speaker 2: by accident and then just like fell down, they had

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Speaker 2: a start from the one punt block for touchdowns like

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Speaker 2: you name it. They're helping out the other team. I

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Speaker 2: feel bad for that defense, but yeah, I think I

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Speaker 2: agree with you. I don't mind the San Diego State

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Speaker 2: team total over. And if you think it's southward or

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Speaker 2: nothing but pretty ugly, Friday Night's late Saturday is quite

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Speaker 2: the opposite. It is rivalry week to start a rivalry

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Speaker 2: of you know, eight days of we get a bunch

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Speaker 2: of rivalry games, some this weekend, some next weekend. What

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Speaker 2: do they call this Saturday? I forget what they call

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Speaker 2: this one.

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Speaker 1: It's no longer ten horn. It used to be ten horn,

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Speaker 1: I know.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: And they run through our ass like shit through a

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Speaker 1: ten horn man, and we could not stop them.

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Speaker 2: Let's start with a little look ahead or look away.

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Speaker 1: Hangovers, sleepers, and the dreaded sandwich spot. Is it time

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Speaker 1: to look ahead or look away?

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Speaker 2: Let's go through five games. These are where we look

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Speaker 2: at what happened last week, what the schedule looks like

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Speaker 2: next week, for any potential situational handicapping angles. We'll talk

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Speaker 2: a lot about motivation, next week, in particular, when we're

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Speaker 2: talking about bulls and who's eligible who's not, but still

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Speaker 2: matters this week, let's start with We'll start with Michigan.

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Speaker 2: Ohio State play next weekend, so we'll either of them

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Speaker 2: get caught kind of peeking ahead. Let's start with Michigan.

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Speaker 2: They will host Illinois there in eighteen point favorite over

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Speaker 2: under forty one. On the surface, I you know, historically

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Speaker 2: it's been profitable to back these big dogs in conference

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Speaker 2: games with totals this low. But the question is how

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Speaker 2: can Illinois move the ball. Tommy DeVito has been really

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Speaker 2: ineffective over the past couple of weeks, and their belcal

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Speaker 2: is Chase Brown, who leads the country in Russia, but

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Speaker 2: his status is very much in doubt. If he does play,

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Speaker 2: I'm not sure it'll be one hundred percent, and they

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Speaker 2: like to feed him as much as any back in

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Speaker 2: the country. The other on the other side of the ball,

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Speaker 2: it's okay, what can Blake Krn do against this Illinois

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Speaker 2: defense that I think is starting to show some cracks

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Speaker 2: in the trenches And I'm not sure how much success

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Speaker 2: off throwing it and that ultimately might hold Michigan back,

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Speaker 2: not necessarily in this game. But big picture wise, McCarthy's

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Speaker 2: really struggled over the past couple of weeks, sub fifty

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Speaker 2: percent completion percentage. There have been some wide receiver drops,

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Speaker 2: and he'll be facing an Illinois secondary that has some

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Speaker 2: dudes Witherspoon, Martin and Brown they can cover. So I

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Speaker 2: think this comes down to, you know, Illinois wants to

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Speaker 2: just grind this down to running teams. They want to

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Speaker 2: feed Chase Brown, but he might not be available, And

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Speaker 2: what can Michigan do on the ground and can they

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Speaker 2: have any success through the air. How do you see

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Speaker 2: this playing out?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, if Chase Brown is not one percent healthy or

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Speaker 1: even halfway, you know, if he's not going to be

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Speaker 1: playing in this game or if he's not healthy, that's

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Speaker 1: gonna get Illinois into passing downs real fast. And that

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Speaker 1: means there's going to be more passing attempts, there's going

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Speaker 1: to be less clock drained. That means there's going to

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Speaker 1: be more overall possessions in this game. And for that

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Speaker 1: reason alone, the total has just been whacked because of

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Speaker 1: the weather, right, we're talking cold, and then twenty mile

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Speaker 1: an hour sustained wins a kind of run diagonal up

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Speaker 1: there in ann Arbor from end zone to end zone,

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Speaker 1: and so you have to ask yourself, is that too

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Speaker 1: strong of a win for Michigan to open it up

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Speaker 1: from a passing perspective. But you mentioned that Michigan needs

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Speaker 1: to get their passing attack going. I don't think that

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Speaker 1: they're holding back and waiting for Ohio State. That's just

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Speaker 1: something you have to get in sync on. So if

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Speaker 1: you're going to get multiple possessions here, they haven't been

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Speaker 1: allowed to throw either. Nebrask game was fielder precipitation. The

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Speaker 1: Wolverines ran the ball fifty times. They never opened up

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Speaker 1: the passing playbook whatsoever. They're gonna have to learn to

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Speaker 1: play a bad weather if they want to throw the

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Speaker 1: ball and beat Ohio State, because that is the point

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Speaker 1: of attack, is getting behind the defense. And I think

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Speaker 1: about this too, think about the psychology behind this. Jim

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Speaker 1: Harbob probably wants to put on film plays that he

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Speaker 1: is not going to use against Ohio State. So I

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Speaker 1: wouldn't be surprised if there's triggeration, if there's passing plays

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Speaker 1: we'll never see again. If there's throwaway plays, I think

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Speaker 1: we've seen everything on the ground from these guys. I

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Speaker 1: just wouldn't be surprising see Michigan taking shots.

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Speaker 2: Sure they want to give a carthy in our rhythm too.

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Speaker 2: After the last yeah.

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Speaker 1: Weeks, absolutely and Illinois outside the top one hundred and

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Speaker 1: defensive standard downs explosiveness that is really bad against Michigan

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Speaker 1: because they are expo they explode and first and second

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Speaker 1: down they are on point with the keeping in early downs,

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Speaker 1: never falling behind the chains. Illinois defense, for everything that

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Speaker 1: they are, they're not very good at stopping big chunk

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Speaker 1: plays and standard down So I think there could be

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Speaker 1: some quick scores from Michigan. I think Illinois is going

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Speaker 1: to be in passing downs real fast without Chase Brown around.

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Speaker 1: That's going to lead me to extra possessions and extra

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Speaker 1: plays means extra points. So I'm going over forty one

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Speaker 1: is very key, so I would try to get that one.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I would like Illinois. I think here, if I

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Speaker 2: knew that Chase Brown was one hundred percent healthy, he's

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Speaker 2: so good, and what he would do. You know, he

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Speaker 2: would probably break a couple of runs, but successful first down,

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Speaker 2: success on second down, pick up some third and shorts,

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Speaker 2: just keep the clock moving, keep Michigan off the field

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Speaker 2: without him. As you mentioned, like they're going to be

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Speaker 2: in passing downs and I don't think that's going to

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Speaker 2: end well.

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Speaker 1: I think of vanilla game plan on defense and not

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Speaker 1: show blitz packages, and then on offense you got to

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Speaker 1: do something, get deep, maybe throwaway plays in the passing game.

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Speaker 1: So I just like the over here for a lot

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Speaker 1: of reasons.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, one thing that we'll spend a lot of time

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Speaker 2: on Michigan Ohio State next week. One of the most

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Speaker 2: difficult things and also with them going into the College

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Speaker 2: Twall Playoff too, is the lack of data points for

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Speaker 2: both of these teams. Like the Michigan defense right like

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Speaker 2: over the first you know, two months, the only competent

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Speaker 2: offense they faced and hasn't looked competent late. We're gonna

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Speaker 2: talk about him, scond is Maryland, who put up twenty seven.

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Speaker 2: You know. Then they dominate Penn State. That's pretty much it.

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Speaker 2: I mean like they played Rutgers, Nebraska's backup quarterback. They

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Speaker 2: might play Illinois without Chase Brown and Penn State was

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Speaker 2: that just like Okay, we know all Penn State can

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Speaker 2: be jeckle and hide. So yeah, these Michigan schedule has

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Speaker 2: been so easy. It's hard to get a read. You know,

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Speaker 2: their defense is obviously really good, but I'm talking about like, okay,

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Speaker 2: can it go and match up with Ohio State if

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Speaker 2: they get into the College Bball playoff other teams? So

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Speaker 2: that'll be an interesting handicap next week. But let's move

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Speaker 2: on to the other game. Ohio State will travel to

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Speaker 2: Maryland twenty seven and a half point road favorite over

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Speaker 2: under sixty two and a half. Really fascinating game to

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Speaker 2: break down because Maryland's offense, which had a ton of potential,

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Speaker 2: flashed at at times, you know, at Michigan early in

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Speaker 2: the season. But then Tagovailoa got hurt, he came back,

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Speaker 2: he missed a game, he came back, and he's been

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Speaker 2: a shell of himself. The offenses just looked absolutely miserable,

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Speaker 2: and he looks hesitant. He's pulling it the ball down

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Speaker 2: and not trusting his protection, and the offense has been broken.

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Speaker 2: They scored ten total points over the past two games.

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Speaker 2: I know they went up against an elite Penn State secondary,

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Speaker 2: but what did he throw for fifty yards last week? Now?

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Speaker 2: The other thing to keep in mind is the weather

293
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Speaker 2: hasn't been great in their past two games, and they

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Speaker 2: might get their offensive guard Lunsford back, who's pretty important

295
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Speaker 2: to their protection. But man, the offense has been bad.

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Speaker 2: Can they find it? Can they rally here? Because the

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Speaker 2: Maryland defense has actually been better than I thought coming

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Speaker 2: into the season. On the surface, this line is too high.

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Speaker 2: Especially if I could get twenty eight, I might have

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Speaker 2: to take it. But after seeing the Maryland offensive out

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Speaker 2: with the past two weeks, it's very scary. And again

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Speaker 2: with Ohio State, it's like the lack of data points

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Speaker 2: that we have to really know just how good they are.

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Speaker 2: It's difficult. What do you see here?

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Speaker 1: You're right, the numbers should be twenty three and a half.

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Speaker 1: I'm sorry that. I'm sorry the number should be twenty

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Speaker 1: two and a half. It should not be as high

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Speaker 1: as it is. And I already had hesitations with this

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Speaker 1: Ohio State team in the first place. I've been saying

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Speaker 1: for weeks the c Stroud is not what we think

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Speaker 1: that he is as a Heisman contender. I put out

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Speaker 1: a fun trend out there on Twitter. Since two thousand

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Speaker 1: and nine, Ohio States covered just twice in week eleven

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Speaker 1: for overlook to Michigan. For those reasons, it's kind of

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Speaker 1: fun to throw that really small sample sized trend out there,

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Speaker 1: but a lot of questions here with the Buckeyes, right,

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Speaker 1: They're expected to get some reps from Trevon Henderson, from

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Speaker 1: Myan Williams coming back from injuries. And we just talked

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Speaker 1: about how Michigan needs JJ McCarthy to be in sync. Well,

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Speaker 1: Ohio State needs these running backs to be ready to

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Speaker 1: go for Michigan. So how many reps will they get?

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Speaker 1: I guess we'll see. And Ohio State dominated Indiana completely clear.

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Speaker 1: I mean it is the Indiana secondary And his favorite

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Speaker 1: target by far is Marmon Harrison Junior. He got targeted

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Speaker 1: twelve times. If you look at the next three targets

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Speaker 1: Julian Filming Cade, Stover and a Mecca at Buka, they

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Speaker 1: had twelve targets, right, So Marmon Harrison Junior is getting

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Speaker 1: the lion chair of all this and he is the

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Speaker 1: most I just filled out my blindakough like, you know,

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Speaker 1: what is it pre nominee getting ready for the finals

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Speaker 1: and the voting. Yeah, I had Marvin Harrison Junior at

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Speaker 1: the top, and it was because he's, you know, one

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Speaker 1: of the most explosive wide receivers at three point four

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Speaker 1: yards per route run. So I mean he's a site

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Speaker 1: to watch. And Maryland does have two players in the

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Speaker 1: secondary that rank highly in coverage grading Maryland. I couldn't

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Speaker 1: believe this when I read it, But Maryland is second

338
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Speaker 1: nationally and defensive pass expected points and.

339
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Speaker 2: Seem one of the most underrated defenses that people don't

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Speaker 2: think is good in the country.

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Speaker 1: Right, And teams are scoring on Ohio State with sustained drive.

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Speaker 1: So if I flipped the other side and I want

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Speaker 1: to back Maryland here, because I do, and the numbers

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Speaker 1: inflated teams are scoring with sustained drives, Indiana had four

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Speaker 1: drives and scored fourteen points. That's pretty average. I throw

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Speaker 1: out Northwestern there's some bad weather there. But Penn State,

347
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Speaker 1: remember we got the cover there and Sean Clifford did

348
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Speaker 1: everything to give it away. They scored twenty four points

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Speaker 1: on five trips past the forty and that might be

350
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Speaker 1: the most prolific offense that Ohio State has had to

351
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Speaker 1: go up against. So there's serious issues here for me

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Speaker 1: with Ohio State. So stuck. Right as I got to

353
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Speaker 1: the moment to submit the bet on Maryland, I went

354
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Speaker 1: over to a book, a very big book that is

355
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Speaker 1: out there for everybody that does look ahead lines and

356
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Speaker 1: it has Michigan plus eight. So let's talk about that

357
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Speaker 1: line next week right now. If that game was played

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Speaker 1: this week, I would make that seven sp plus would

359
00:17:03,720 --> 00:17:05,920
Speaker 1: make that game four and a half. I can't see

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Speaker 1: anything happening with Michigan Illinois that is going to make

361
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Speaker 1: that thing float above a touchdown. So I was happy

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Speaker 1: to take Michigan.

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Speaker 2: Plus unless Illinois wins.

364
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Speaker 1: Unless Illinois wins, I'm not betting on it, especially with

365
00:17:17,960 --> 00:17:20,840
Speaker 1: Chase Brown, right. So I took a Michigan plus eight

366
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Speaker 1: look aheadline. That is sort of a bet you can

367
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Speaker 1: make with these two look aheadlines for the biggest game

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Speaker 1: on the docket next week.

369
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm probably gonna be on Maryland here. I'm going

370
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Speaker 2: to take a little more. I just want to get

371
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Speaker 2: some confidence that Tegafilo is going to be that he's

372
00:17:36,080 --> 00:17:37,880
Speaker 2: just going to be a little bit more confident back

373
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Speaker 2: there in the pockets. That's coming back from injury, He's

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Speaker 2: got a couple of games under his belt. The weather

375
00:17:41,640 --> 00:17:44,880
Speaker 2: hasn't helped. The town is there on that offense. So yeah,

376
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Speaker 2: I definitely think that this number is inflated in Maryland.

377
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Speaker 2: Is the side.

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Speaker 3: Propon Footboy that's what Maryland does.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's do all of your boys. Arkansas, who

380
00:17:58,400 --> 00:18:02,720
Speaker 2: will host ole Miss and ole Miss? This is a

381
00:18:02,720 --> 00:18:05,639
Speaker 2: really tough spot for ole Miss. They're coming off just

382
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Speaker 2: kind of a heartbreaking lost Alabama. They Lane Kiffin really

383
00:18:08,760 --> 00:18:12,439
Speaker 2: could have got Nick Saban there, but also ruined their

384
00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:14,919
Speaker 2: chances of winning the division and getting to the SEC

385
00:18:15,119 --> 00:18:19,040
Speaker 2: title game. They have the Egg Bowl coming up on Friday,

386
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Speaker 2: and Arkansas meanwhile still fighting for BO eligibility. I love

387
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Speaker 2: Arkansas here. I love the effort that they showed last week.

388
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Speaker 2: There was they should have won that game. I think

389
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Speaker 2: they graded out as a winner. Look at post game

390
00:18:32,960 --> 00:18:35,120
Speaker 2: we have it's basically a coin flip. But without kJ

391
00:18:35,200 --> 00:18:39,000
Speaker 2: Jefferson in the backup quarterbacks, there was obviously a major

392
00:18:39,080 --> 00:18:43,000
Speaker 2: drop off in that game, and you know, look they

393
00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:45,040
Speaker 2: should get You'll talk more about the injuries, but you know,

394
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Speaker 2: I think maybe Slush will be back, Maybe they're right

395
00:18:47,040 --> 00:18:50,640
Speaker 2: tackle Dalton Wagner will be back, But I think Jefferson starts.

396
00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:53,880
Speaker 2: You've talked about the uncertainty around that. You know, he's

397
00:18:53,880 --> 00:18:56,399
Speaker 2: been practicing him and said he's health their expects in

398
00:18:56,440 --> 00:18:58,960
Speaker 2: the play. That doesn't mean he definitely will but I

399
00:18:59,040 --> 00:19:02,160
Speaker 2: think he will. And here is why he's a Mississippi kid.

400
00:19:02,560 --> 00:19:04,560
Speaker 2: He talked in the offseason about wanting to beat the

401
00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:08,000
Speaker 2: Mississippi schools. That's like he said, I want to be Misissippi,

402
00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:10,440
Speaker 2: Mississippi State. Like he said that, people usually you get

403
00:19:10,440 --> 00:19:13,120
Speaker 2: like a bullshit answer. I want to beat every team

404
00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:16,640
Speaker 2: on the schedule. But Mississippi State blew out Arkansas. Jefferson

405
00:19:16,640 --> 00:19:19,920
Speaker 2: was hurt for that game. Now he gets oh Miss,

406
00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:23,160
Speaker 2: a team that he lost to last year by one

407
00:19:23,680 --> 00:19:25,720
Speaker 2: in a game where he was super man. He had

408
00:19:25,760 --> 00:19:28,920
Speaker 2: six touchdowns and also a two point conversion. I think

409
00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:31,760
Speaker 2: he wants this game. I think he plays ole miss

410
00:19:31,840 --> 00:19:34,760
Speaker 2: Kiffin looked deflated last week. I think this is just

411
00:19:34,800 --> 00:19:38,399
Speaker 2: a great spot to back Arkansas. And if you look

412
00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:41,720
Speaker 2: at Arkansas, they've been just so unfortunate in close games.

413
00:19:42,160 --> 00:19:45,040
Speaker 2: They have five losses, two came with Jefferson on the sidelines,

414
00:19:45,080 --> 00:19:47,880
Speaker 2: one last week by three to LSU. All the games

415
00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:50,800
Speaker 2: are in limbo in the fourth quarter. I think they're

416
00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:54,159
Speaker 2: undervalued here. And Sammy covers thirteen and six against the

417
00:19:54,200 --> 00:19:57,600
Speaker 2: spread as an underdog sixty eight percent, covering by about

418
00:19:57,600 --> 00:19:59,960
Speaker 2: five points per game. Nine and three against the spread

419
00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:04,119
Speaker 2: against top twenty teams, including seven to zero. If you

420
00:20:04,160 --> 00:20:06,960
Speaker 2: remove all the games against Alabama and Georgia, go home.

421
00:20:07,520 --> 00:20:10,320
Speaker 2: I like the Hogs here. I'm just waiting. There's no rush.

422
00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:12,040
Speaker 2: I'm waiting to see if a three lover pop. But

423
00:20:12,080 --> 00:20:14,840
Speaker 2: I'll be on Arkansas here. Do you agree? Whoo pig

424
00:20:15,080 --> 00:20:18,520
Speaker 2: suey absolute dumpster fire, dumpster fire.

425
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Speaker 1: I don't know how we win a game the rest

426
00:20:19,920 --> 00:20:22,040
Speaker 1: of the year. Just blow a program up, give us

427
00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:28,160
Speaker 1: a death sentence. Collins talking razorback football, I absolutely agree.

428
00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:29,720
Speaker 1: I know it's gonna be cold three degrees, but I

429
00:20:29,760 --> 00:20:31,760
Speaker 1: don't think that matters. It's going to be a trench battle.

430
00:20:31,800 --> 00:20:34,640
Speaker 1: Everyone's gonna have their heartbeat pumping, the sweat's gonna be going.

431
00:20:34,760 --> 00:20:36,359
Speaker 1: You're not gonna be cold once you get a series

432
00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:39,560
Speaker 1: in Fabel has been a house of horrors for Old miss.

433
00:20:39,640 --> 00:20:42,000
Speaker 1: The Rebels have covered once in the last nine trips.

434
00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:44,959
Speaker 1: They've only won once in their last ten trips. So

435
00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:47,200
Speaker 1: you know, essentially the last twenty years is got to

436
00:20:47,240 --> 00:20:49,719
Speaker 1: be through Houston Nutt, through Hugh Freeze. I mean, it's

437
00:20:49,760 --> 00:20:51,280
Speaker 1: kind of been a nightmare for them to come up

438
00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:55,960
Speaker 1: to Fayville and yeah, kJ it finally got slipped one

439
00:20:56,000 --> 00:20:58,159
Speaker 1: of the assistant coaches or maybe even a gratis is

440
00:20:58,160 --> 00:21:00,400
Speaker 1: that somebody said on radio and it got flowed around

441
00:21:00,440 --> 00:21:03,439
Speaker 1: the message boards that kJ Jefferson's real injury is a

442
00:21:03,440 --> 00:21:06,679
Speaker 1: separated shoulder and that this is the healthiest that he

443
00:21:06,760 --> 00:21:08,200
Speaker 1: has been and the reason why he hasn't been playing

444
00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:10,280
Speaker 1: because he's not able to throw on first down, second down,

445
00:21:10,320 --> 00:21:13,160
Speaker 1: third down. And we knew that was the problem against Liberty,

446
00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:16,680
Speaker 1: that he could not hit anybody. He was over everybody

447
00:21:16,800 --> 00:21:19,359
Speaker 1: could he wasn't even getting close. And now that the

448
00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:22,480
Speaker 1: separated shoulder is kind of out there, it's rumored about,

449
00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:25,040
Speaker 1: although it did come from somebody that was on radio.

450
00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:27,840
Speaker 1: You know, Pivot is saying that he's the healthiest he's

451
00:21:27,840 --> 00:21:30,080
Speaker 1: ever been. Now, Dalton Wagner was a big real that's

452
00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:32,480
Speaker 1: a big, big loss off the offensive line last week

453
00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:37,320
Speaker 1: that LSU tried to expose. But he is going to

454
00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:39,480
Speaker 1: be playing and that's a big bump for the offensive line.

455
00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:42,320
Speaker 1: So two big reasons there, Like if kJ Jefferson, I'm

456
00:21:42,359 --> 00:21:43,919
Speaker 1: not sure if you can take bumps off your shoulder

457
00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:46,280
Speaker 1: with a separated shoulder, but if kJ is going to play,

458
00:21:46,320 --> 00:21:47,639
Speaker 1: it's not going to be a throw. It's going to

459
00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:50,320
Speaker 1: be to try to bull people over, and forcing these

460
00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:52,879
Speaker 1: offenses into passing downs is the key to victory for

461
00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:55,159
Speaker 1: both of them, right because Jackson dark Lane doesn't want

462
00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:58,000
Speaker 1: him to throw, and obviously we don't want kJ throwing

463
00:21:58,040 --> 00:22:00,800
Speaker 1: with a separated shoulder. So Old Miss has struggled when

464
00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:03,440
Speaker 1: they missed the two hundred rushing yard mark. Miles Slusher

465
00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:06,960
Speaker 1: is returning. They've taken him off the scout team. Pittman's done,

466
00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:09,640
Speaker 1: you know, with his punishment. He is back on the defense.

467
00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:12,480
Speaker 1: He is a great Swiss army knife that can play

468
00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:15,080
Speaker 1: a bunch of different positions in the back seven. That's

469
00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:17,760
Speaker 1: a boost for Arkansas. And then this Arkansas defense has

470
00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:20,440
Speaker 1: quietly I'm not looking at the season numbers anymore in

471
00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:23,520
Speaker 1: Arkansas's defense, they're bad, but what they've done in the

472
00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:27,760
Speaker 1: last few games really deserves, you know, recognition. Here LSU

473
00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:30,800
Speaker 1: was held the thirteen points and on five trips past

474
00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:33,159
Speaker 1: the forty yard line, the razorbacks were great when they

475
00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:35,600
Speaker 1: had their backspin up against the wall. Liberty was shut

476
00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:39,480
Speaker 1: out defensively in the second half with Auburn. Now remember this,

477
00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:42,720
Speaker 1: you need to stop the Old Miss rush. So when

478
00:22:42,760 --> 00:22:44,960
Speaker 1: you go look at Auburn. You take out the one

479
00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:47,920
Speaker 1: single explosive run that Robbie Ashford had and the Tank

480
00:22:47,960 --> 00:22:51,480
Speaker 1: Bigsby has, and here's their numbers. Ashford eighteen rushes for

481
00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:55,840
Speaker 1: fifty three yards, Tank Bigsby ten rushes for twenty two yards.

482
00:22:56,280 --> 00:22:59,199
Speaker 1: You throw out tanks one big explosive run, ten rushes

483
00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:01,800
Speaker 1: for twenty two yards. Words, they are stopping the run.

484
00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:04,680
Speaker 1: Teams are not scoring in the second half. The defense

485
00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:08,240
Speaker 1: is fundamentally playing better. There's eleven hats around the ball tackling.

486
00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:11,159
Speaker 1: I am all in on Arkansas here. They're gonna win

487
00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:11,760
Speaker 1: it out right.

488
00:23:12,280 --> 00:23:14,840
Speaker 2: All right, Yeah, finally on the same page with Arkansas.

489
00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:18,240
Speaker 2: I completely agree. Woo Pig Suie.

490
00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:19,359
Speaker 1: Woo pig suey.

491
00:23:19,840 --> 00:23:21,360
Speaker 2: If you're sitting out there and you're seeing a two,

492
00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:23,680
Speaker 2: I'm gonna wait to see if three pops. I don't

493
00:23:23,680 --> 00:23:26,280
Speaker 2: think it's gonna get there. I might. I might buy it,

494
00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:29,480
Speaker 2: buy it to three. We'll see. But we'll be on

495
00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:32,560
Speaker 2: in Arkansas no matter what. Quick game here Cincinnati at

496
00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:36,080
Speaker 2: Temple Cincinnati, coming off that ECU win, I continue to

497
00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:39,280
Speaker 2: not be really impressed with them. They have a huge

498
00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:44,359
Speaker 2: game in the American with Tulane next week, So going

499
00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:49,760
Speaker 2: to Temple is potentially a little sleepy spot here since

500
00:23:49,800 --> 00:23:53,200
Speaker 2: he's a seventeen point road favorite of under fifteen a half.

501
00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:53,840
Speaker 2: He got it in here.

502
00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:55,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was gonna bet Temple, but I want to

503
00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:57,399
Speaker 1: kind of wait to the podcast kind of pick your

504
00:23:57,400 --> 00:23:59,920
Speaker 1: brain on this one because Cincinnati has not covered a

505
00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:03,359
Speaker 1: game away from Nippert this season. They're O four and

506
00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:06,000
Speaker 1: one against the spread on the road and Temple has

507
00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:07,439
Speaker 1: those shot at a ball, So you think that they

508
00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:09,640
Speaker 1: would just kind of roll over and let everybody, you know,

509
00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:13,120
Speaker 1: steamroll them. But they have covered four straight, including Houston

510
00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:15,600
Speaker 1: last week. The effort you're looking at for a team

511
00:24:15,640 --> 00:24:17,280
Speaker 1: that is not going to have a postseason. I guess

512
00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:19,840
Speaker 1: they're playing like this is their bowl, right and the

513
00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:22,240
Speaker 1: owls are twenty seventh and coverage grading, that's a really

514
00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:24,919
Speaker 1: good number to have against Ben Bryant, who was awful

515
00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:27,800
Speaker 1: against East Carolina. He had three turnover worthy plays and

516
00:24:27,840 --> 00:24:30,320
Speaker 1: he only had like seven pressures and only one drop

517
00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:32,160
Speaker 1: from the wide receivers, Like this is all on Ben

518
00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:35,240
Speaker 1: Bryant's just he's not been very good with his accuracy whatsoever.

519
00:24:35,800 --> 00:24:38,720
Speaker 1: And to push the ball on the Sincy defense, you

520
00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:41,800
Speaker 1: have to have a passing game, and East Carolina and

521
00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:44,000
Speaker 1: Central Florida each got two hundred and forty in the

522
00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:47,640
Speaker 1: air on Cincinnati. So the question is can Temple replicate that. Hey,

523
00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:50,919
Speaker 1: they're coming off two games four hundred and eighty passing

524
00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:53,879
Speaker 1: yards against Houston, three hundred and forty four passing yards

525
00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:57,480
Speaker 1: on South Florida. Temple's playing really good ball right now,

526
00:24:57,560 --> 00:25:00,200
Speaker 1: so you know, I mean, we could take them and

527
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:04,160
Speaker 1: and fear that the EJ. Warner fumbles interceptions are coming,

528
00:25:04,160 --> 00:25:08,679
Speaker 1: but you know, not handicapping injuries or turnovers, Temple should

529
00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:09,600
Speaker 1: cover this game.

530
00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:13,919
Speaker 2: I completely agree Temple has the side here for a

531
00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:16,359
Speaker 2: couple of reasons. Number One, it's not a great spot

532
00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:18,800
Speaker 2: for SINCINNTI. I have not been impressed with them. I

533
00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:22,359
Speaker 2: still think that they're kind of resting on their laws

534
00:25:22,359 --> 00:25:24,960
Speaker 2: of last year in the market and there's a reason

535
00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:27,479
Speaker 2: they just have not been great against the number. And

536
00:25:27,520 --> 00:25:31,080
Speaker 2: when you look at Cincinnati this year, like they were

537
00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:32,840
Speaker 2: supposed to their offensive line was supposed to be a

538
00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:35,520
Speaker 2: strength of the offense. After everything that they lost, then

539
00:25:35,560 --> 00:25:39,080
Speaker 2: they had some injuries, moving some guys around. It's not

540
00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:43,480
Speaker 2: been great. I mean they're like eighty second in sac

541
00:25:43,600 --> 00:25:46,000
Speaker 2: rate and they haven't been able to run the ball.

542
00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:48,119
Speaker 2: I mean that they are. I think I have them

543
00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:55,000
Speaker 2: outside the bottom ten nationally in rush success rate, ninety

544
00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:58,120
Speaker 2: third in EPA per rush. They can't run the ball.

545
00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:00,760
Speaker 2: That's how you attack this Temple team. Temple has an

546
00:26:00,760 --> 00:26:04,919
Speaker 2: excellent secondary and they also get pressure. They have, you know,

547
00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:06,600
Speaker 2: one of the best defensive ends at the group of

548
00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:11,840
Speaker 2: five level, their second nationally in passing down Sacerate, fourth overall,

549
00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:14,680
Speaker 2: so they can get pressure on Bryant. Yeah. I think

550
00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:17,960
Speaker 2: it's the numbers inflated, and I think the Temple's decide.

551
00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:19,800
Speaker 2: I'm actually gonna better right now.

552
00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:21,480
Speaker 1: It's one of those things like you and I have

553
00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:23,080
Speaker 1: to go in this together because we're gonna be tweeting

554
00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:25,720
Speaker 1: the hoot owl's head spinning around, or it's gonna be

555
00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:29,320
Speaker 1: six turnovers when we look like bums. So who who

556
00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:30,040
Speaker 1: are you.

557
00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:34,240
Speaker 2: Fucking ol a live podcast that here? We only have

558
00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:37,240
Speaker 2: so many more opportunities to tweet al gifts.

559
00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:39,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, because it's not gonna be Rice.

560
00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:43,440
Speaker 2: All right, let's move on to the final game U

561
00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:47,080
Speaker 2: A B at LSU LSU. Obviously, coming off that win,

562
00:26:47,560 --> 00:26:51,080
Speaker 2: it's Arkansas week before that to beat Alabama. Next week

563
00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:52,960
Speaker 2: they'll have Texas A and M, although I don't think

564
00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:56,639
Speaker 2: someone even get up for text A M anymore. But still,

565
00:26:56,640 --> 00:26:59,040
Speaker 2: this is a bad spot for an LSU team that

566
00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:03,120
Speaker 2: I think is overvalued in the market. They're they're there's

567
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:05,400
Speaker 2: they're young, they're you know, and it's the first year

568
00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:09,639
Speaker 2: coach and there's still some inconsistencies. Everyone just remembers this

569
00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:12,399
Speaker 2: al Dalabama win. You know. They also got going up

570
00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:14,960
Speaker 2: by Tennessee. They should have lost at Auburn, one of

571
00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:17,160
Speaker 2: the luckiest wins of the year. They should have lost

572
00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:20,680
Speaker 2: to Arkansas. And on the flip side, I think UAB

573
00:27:20,880 --> 00:27:24,639
Speaker 2: is sort of the They are the Arkansas Group of five.

574
00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:27,679
Speaker 2: So what I mean by that is they've lost a

575
00:27:27,800 --> 00:27:30,600
Speaker 2: number of really close games. They're five and five. This

576
00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:33,159
Speaker 2: is their super Bowl. They can't win the conference title.

577
00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:35,720
Speaker 2: They're playing for Bowl eligibility and to win this game.

578
00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:38,040
Speaker 2: And they've also had They've lost a couple games with

579
00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:42,159
Speaker 2: their backup quarterbacks starting, similar to Arkansas, and a lot

580
00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:44,639
Speaker 2: of their losses I actually graded as wins, and they

581
00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:47,000
Speaker 2: were really unlucky in the turnover department in both But

582
00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:49,520
Speaker 2: I actually think so I think UAB can cover this number.

583
00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:50,919
Speaker 2: I know. The one thing that scares me is they

584
00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:52,479
Speaker 2: haven't been great in this spot when they go up

585
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:56,040
Speaker 2: against SEC teams. But you know, Dwayne McBride, They're running

586
00:27:56,040 --> 00:27:59,560
Speaker 2: back is averaging just under seven yards per carry. Methodical run,

587
00:27:59,560 --> 00:28:02,280
Speaker 2: heavy all defense, I think they can have some success running.

588
00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:04,760
Speaker 2: It's LSU. They're outside the top hundred and epa per

589
00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:07,040
Speaker 2: rush and UAB on the other side of the ball

590
00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:09,680
Speaker 2: is an excellent defense. I have them ranked the top

591
00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:14,800
Speaker 2: thirty five nationally. Secondary is just nails. They shut down

592
00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:17,520
Speaker 2: every pass they actually can match up and at least

593
00:28:17,520 --> 00:28:21,960
Speaker 2: contain these LSU receivers. The run defense does have some holes,

594
00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:24,400
Speaker 2: but they've done a good job against mobile quarterbacks, which

595
00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:29,080
Speaker 2: is big against Jayden Daniels. Look that this LSU team,

596
00:28:29,119 --> 00:28:32,240
Speaker 2: it's at at night at home and death Valley forty

597
00:28:32,280 --> 00:28:34,480
Speaker 2: one and forty five against the spread past fifteen years

598
00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:36,439
Speaker 2: at home at night. I think it's that gets a

599
00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:40,120
Speaker 2: little overinflated. I like UAV catching over two touchdowns here.

600
00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:42,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's so funny when I hear people telling me

601
00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:45,360
Speaker 1: about home field advantage and LSU like we do a

602
00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:47,480
Speaker 1: home field advantage piece here. At the Action Network. It

603
00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:51,440
Speaker 1: uses mathematics and it's not that high for them even

604
00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:54,240
Speaker 1: at night listen. I think the number is a little

605
00:28:54,240 --> 00:28:56,080
Speaker 1: bit short. I mean just probably like a point or two.

606
00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:59,360
Speaker 1: But UAB is back to full strength. You need just

607
00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:01,160
Speaker 1: one win to get to a bowl. You do have

608
00:29:01,280 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 1: law Tech next week, which could help you do that,

609
00:29:03,880 --> 00:29:05,320
Speaker 1: but you could also do it here with an upset

610
00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:08,480
Speaker 1: of LSU. And when I say they're healthy, Dwayne McBride

611
00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:10,560
Speaker 1: is full speed at running back one hundred and twenty

612
00:29:10,600 --> 00:29:13,480
Speaker 1: yards and three tds last week against North Texas. They

613
00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:16,600
Speaker 1: just slapped North Texas around last week like that spread

614
00:29:16,680 --> 00:29:18,320
Speaker 1: was what five and a half, And I think we

615
00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:21,160
Speaker 1: had it on BBOs like they just slapped around North

616
00:29:21,160 --> 00:29:24,440
Speaker 1: Texas like it wasn't even close. But I stepped back

617
00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:26,800
Speaker 1: because you kind of mentioned what my problem is, and

618
00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:29,880
Speaker 1: that is when Bill Clark was over this team forever,

619
00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:33,600
Speaker 1: they didn't go max effort with great G five teams,

620
00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:37,080
Speaker 1: really great rosters that won conference titles, right and when

621
00:29:37,080 --> 00:29:40,080
Speaker 1: you got spreads like this, they never came close. And

622
00:29:40,120 --> 00:29:42,720
Speaker 1: specifically I'm talking about twenty twenty one Georgia. They lost

623
00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:46,720
Speaker 1: fifty six to seven. Twenty Yeah, twenty twenty, Miami thirty

624
00:29:46,720 --> 00:29:50,280
Speaker 1: one to fourteen, twenty nineteen, Tennessee thirty to seven, and

625
00:29:50,320 --> 00:29:52,320
Speaker 1: then finally one game I know I bet pretty hard

626
00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:54,680
Speaker 1: on UAB was twenty eighteen against Texas A and m

627
00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:57,920
Speaker 1: forty one to twenty. They lost that game. So it

628
00:29:58,120 --> 00:30:01,200
Speaker 1: just was never in Bill Clark's house to step up

629
00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:03,480
Speaker 1: to these Power five programs and try to get a

630
00:30:03,520 --> 00:30:05,920
Speaker 1: cover or try to upset because UAB has never done

631
00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:08,560
Speaker 1: it ever. And if you look at Brian Vincent, the

632
00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:11,120
Speaker 1: new head coach, I mean he is a direct disciple

633
00:30:11,160 --> 00:30:13,640
Speaker 1: of Bill Clark. If they're just hey, we're going to

634
00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:16,360
Speaker 1: practice for law Tech next week and whatever happens in

635
00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:18,840
Speaker 1: with LSU happens, then they're gonna get waxed.

636
00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:21,400
Speaker 2: That's my sec The reason I don't think that that happens,

637
00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:23,800
Speaker 2: and I thought about That's why I brought it up,

638
00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:26,080
Speaker 2: is that one, they're usually in the running for a

639
00:30:26,120 --> 00:30:29,800
Speaker 2: conference title, right which isn't the case this year. They're

640
00:30:29,840 --> 00:30:33,000
Speaker 2: still fighting for Bowl eligibility and this now becomes like

641
00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:36,760
Speaker 2: their super Bowl. So I think that they'll they'll actually

642
00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:40,840
Speaker 2: go all out here against LSU els who's been vulnerable

643
00:30:40,920 --> 00:30:43,680
Speaker 2: times this year. They've been really inconsistent. All right, time

644
00:30:43,760 --> 00:30:46,360
Speaker 2: to move on to the marquee games of the day.

645
00:30:46,400 --> 00:30:51,560
Speaker 2: It's another fabulous weekend of college football. Let's check out

646
00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:55,640
Speaker 2: the marquee matchups we'll all end up betting for Week twelve.

647
00:30:56,800 --> 00:30:59,400
Speaker 2: All right, we've got four marquee games. Let's start with

648
00:30:59,480 --> 00:31:03,560
Speaker 2: one that will college football playoff implications and potentially Big

649
00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:08,160
Speaker 2: Twelve title implications. TCU at Baylor. Baylor's a two and

650
00:31:08,200 --> 00:31:12,560
Speaker 2: a half point underdog over under fifty seven. So all

651
00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:17,040
Speaker 2: the TCU fans that are tuning in now that I'm

652
00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:19,960
Speaker 2: probably gonna say the bet failure, but maybe you shouldn't

653
00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:22,240
Speaker 2: listen to me when I say FATCU. I bet TCU

654
00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:24,960
Speaker 2: twice this year, two and zero. I faded them four times,

655
00:31:25,120 --> 00:31:27,840
Speaker 2: zero to four. But when I go back and look, now,

656
00:31:27,840 --> 00:31:30,920
Speaker 2: look last week it was just dead wrong. TCU was

657
00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:34,640
Speaker 2: the right side, deserve winner, deserve cover. But I didn't

658
00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:37,120
Speaker 2: mind any of the other three bets. You know, it

659
00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:41,560
Speaker 2: took a hail mary quarterback injuries that I faded TCU.

660
00:31:41,920 --> 00:31:44,200
Speaker 2: They get credit for last week, but they still have

661
00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:48,120
Speaker 2: the same issues that we've talked about all season. And

662
00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:51,080
Speaker 2: I've heard people on Twitter says, sometimes it's just your

663
00:31:51,160 --> 00:31:54,800
Speaker 2: year could be if they keep getting all the breaks,

664
00:31:55,160 --> 00:31:56,920
Speaker 2: could be maybe their year. But that doesn't mean I

665
00:31:56,960 --> 00:31:59,200
Speaker 2: have to bet that that's their year.

666
00:31:59,720 --> 00:31:59,840
Speaker 1: Now.

667
00:32:00,000 --> 00:32:02,640
Speaker 2: Well, I do think there comes a point when everyone's

668
00:32:02,680 --> 00:32:05,480
Speaker 2: like they're a fraud. So are they really a fraud

669
00:32:05,520 --> 00:32:08,400
Speaker 2: if everyone is saying it? So it's not like I

670
00:32:08,440 --> 00:32:11,560
Speaker 2: absolutely think that they should be like a seven point

671
00:32:12,040 --> 00:32:14,840
Speaker 2: underdog here, But I do make this game a true

672
00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:17,560
Speaker 2: coin flip. I like Baylor for a number of reasons.

673
00:32:17,560 --> 00:32:19,400
Speaker 2: I was able to get a three minus one ten.

674
00:32:19,560 --> 00:32:21,640
Speaker 2: I would cheap three if you can buy it two

675
00:32:22,000 --> 00:32:24,400
Speaker 2: or wait for the three. I do think Baylor wins

676
00:32:24,440 --> 00:32:26,960
Speaker 2: this game. It's just we've talked about all the breaks

677
00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:28,719
Speaker 2: TCU has gotten that now is that we don't need

678
00:32:28,760 --> 00:32:31,520
Speaker 2: to revisit that. But they're also playing their ninth big

679
00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:36,400
Speaker 2: game in a row, and historically production does decline, output

680
00:32:36,480 --> 00:32:40,480
Speaker 2: does go down, and that's not factoring when you consider

681
00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:43,880
Speaker 2: that they've played nine big games in a row, started

682
00:32:43,880 --> 00:32:46,320
Speaker 2: with a rivalry game on the road against SMU, and

683
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:48,000
Speaker 2: then the Big Twelve schedule. There's no breaks in the

684
00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:50,640
Speaker 2: Big twelve schedule, so it is tough to just keep

685
00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:53,680
Speaker 2: getting up for these games. Baylor is I mean, this

686
00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:56,640
Speaker 2: is just a classic situational spot. Even if I love TCU,

687
00:32:56,680 --> 00:33:00,480
Speaker 2: I'd be on bailor here. Regardless they got embarrassed last week,

688
00:33:00,520 --> 00:33:02,520
Speaker 2: you should get their best effort. I think their defense

689
00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 2: actually matches up pretty well. TSU's defense still has issues.

690
00:33:06,600 --> 00:33:10,520
Speaker 2: Their offense look was just beating up on horrific defenses

691
00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:13,520
Speaker 2: all year. They didn't do much last week. I think

692
00:33:13,520 --> 00:33:16,680
Speaker 2: they're a little banged up, and I think Baylor gets

693
00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:20,240
Speaker 2: this done in a reversal of roles. Last year, TCU

694
00:33:20,320 --> 00:33:24,000
Speaker 2: is an underdog, beat Baylor upset them as I think

695
00:33:24,040 --> 00:33:26,840
Speaker 2: seven and a half poe underdogs at home ended Baylor's

696
00:33:26,880 --> 00:33:30,240
Speaker 2: dreams of going to the collegewall playoff. I think Baylor

697
00:33:30,320 --> 00:33:33,200
Speaker 2: does the same here, although TSU maybe stills a shot

698
00:33:33,240 --> 00:33:35,720
Speaker 2: if they then went out. For what it's worth, Dave

699
00:33:35,840 --> 00:33:37,880
Speaker 2: Randa five to zero against the spread as an underdog

700
00:33:37,880 --> 00:33:41,760
Speaker 2: against top fifteen teams covering by thirteen points per game.

701
00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:47,240
Speaker 2: That includes four consecutive outright wins over the past two

702
00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:51,600
Speaker 2: seasons against the fourth, fifth, eighth, and fourteenth ranked teams.

703
00:33:52,000 --> 00:33:53,320
Speaker 2: I think Baylor is the spot here.

704
00:33:53,720 --> 00:33:56,040
Speaker 1: Baylor is the spot. This is a huge leadown spot,

705
00:33:56,120 --> 00:33:58,920
Speaker 1: and I remember when we did our Big Twelve preview

706
00:33:58,960 --> 00:34:01,440
Speaker 1: over the summer, I said, I like TCU to win

707
00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:03,719
Speaker 1: the Big Twelve. My issue is their bye week is

708
00:34:03,880 --> 00:34:06,440
Speaker 1: so early in the season. How are they going to

709
00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:08,799
Speaker 1: feel towards the end of the year. Sonny Diykes gets

710
00:34:08,880 --> 00:34:11,920
Speaker 1: up to the podium in his presser about I am

711
00:34:12,000 --> 00:34:14,440
Speaker 1: so glad we have finalized our spot in the Big

712
00:34:14,520 --> 00:34:17,560
Speaker 1: Twelve championship game, and then he made comments about how

713
00:34:17,880 --> 00:34:20,960
Speaker 1: we've played a huge number of games in a row,

714
00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:24,800
Speaker 1: like they wanted to get over this. Texas help so bad.

715
00:34:25,600 --> 00:34:27,759
Speaker 1: I think the entire team has just been thinking about it,

716
00:34:27,840 --> 00:34:30,319
Speaker 1: talking about it. They achieved so many things in one

717
00:34:30,360 --> 00:34:32,880
Speaker 1: shot down in Austin, and I think this is a

718
00:34:32,920 --> 00:34:35,960
Speaker 1: spot where they're just going to be completely deflated. It's

719
00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:38,680
Speaker 1: not like they're playing great offensive football the last few weeks.

720
00:34:38,680 --> 00:34:43,040
Speaker 1: They've had a lot of consecutive drives without points. Now,

721
00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:45,800
Speaker 1: Dave Randa, he's been able to get Baylor to respond

722
00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:47,680
Speaker 1: off a loss. He's four and one against the spread

723
00:34:47,719 --> 00:34:50,040
Speaker 1: since the beginning of last season. When they lose and

724
00:34:50,080 --> 00:34:53,719
Speaker 1: the Bears rush explosiveness with Richard Reees. He's a true

725
00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:56,680
Speaker 1: freshman there. That's the key to this game because TCU,

726
00:34:57,120 --> 00:34:59,120
Speaker 1: even though they've improved to seventy and they still give

727
00:34:59,200 --> 00:35:02,799
Speaker 1: up a ton of explosive rush. Richard Reese is tied

728
00:35:02,840 --> 00:35:06,040
Speaker 1: with Kendre Miller for most rushing tds in the Big Twelve.

729
00:35:06,040 --> 00:35:08,359
Speaker 1: It shows you how important he is to this game

730
00:35:08,360 --> 00:35:10,520
Speaker 1: and to this team. Listen Blake Shape and he's been

731
00:35:10,600 --> 00:35:13,600
Speaker 1: hit or miss each game we saw. The last time

732
00:35:13,640 --> 00:35:16,239
Speaker 1: he saw a three three five stack, which is what

733
00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:19,279
Speaker 1: TCU runs with Joseph Gillespie. The last time he saw

734
00:35:19,320 --> 00:35:22,799
Speaker 1: that was against Iowa State. He threw three touchdowns no

735
00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:26,040
Speaker 1: interceptions against the Cyclones. I don't think Shaan's going to

736
00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:29,080
Speaker 1: have a problem reading this defense whatsoever. We're hoping we

737
00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:31,359
Speaker 1: get good Baylor here, because this is definitely a down

738
00:35:31,400 --> 00:35:32,320
Speaker 1: spot for TCU.

739
00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:35,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's Jacko and Hyde Baylor. They're not an easy

740
00:35:35,719 --> 00:35:38,279
Speaker 2: team to figure out. So knowing TCU, they're going to

741
00:35:38,320 --> 00:35:40,080
Speaker 2: get the bad Baylor. But I think it's just too

742
00:35:40,120 --> 00:35:41,919
Speaker 2: good of a spot and there's some line value here

743
00:35:42,320 --> 00:35:45,120
Speaker 2: that you got to back the Bears. Sick of them

744
00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:48,000
Speaker 2: all right, Let's move on to our second MARKETE game

745
00:35:48,040 --> 00:35:52,200
Speaker 2: of the day, Georgia at Kentucky Kentucky's a twenty two

746
00:35:52,239 --> 00:35:56,719
Speaker 2: and a half point home underdog over under is forty nine.

747
00:35:57,880 --> 00:36:02,080
Speaker 2: Ah Man, my cats, and just a sad loss last

748
00:36:02,080 --> 00:36:04,600
Speaker 2: week at home to Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt unto the twenty six

749
00:36:04,719 --> 00:36:09,560
Speaker 2: game SEC losing streak, and it's been really bad for

750
00:36:09,640 --> 00:36:13,359
Speaker 2: Kentucky over the past few weeks. Georgia obviously has taken

751
00:36:13,360 --> 00:36:17,160
Speaker 2: care of business all season shown I think they obviously

752
00:36:17,280 --> 00:36:20,239
Speaker 2: the best resume of any team in all of college football,

753
00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:25,680
Speaker 2: and until further notice, are the defending champs and the

754
00:36:25,719 --> 00:36:29,160
Speaker 2: best team in college football. Look I like the under here,

755
00:36:29,320 --> 00:36:32,120
Speaker 2: I like it sitting at forty nine or now like

756
00:36:32,200 --> 00:36:34,600
Speaker 2: the under I'd like it down to forty eight. And

757
00:36:34,960 --> 00:36:37,680
Speaker 2: I don't understand why it's as high. I don't understand

758
00:36:37,719 --> 00:36:41,000
Speaker 2: why Kentucky totals are as high as they've been all year.

759
00:36:41,719 --> 00:36:43,799
Speaker 2: This is a great by low spot in Kentucky. I'm

760
00:36:43,840 --> 00:36:45,560
Speaker 2: not doing it. I don't trust their offense. I don't

761
00:36:45,560 --> 00:36:48,319
Speaker 2: know how they score. Kentucky unders this year, by the way,

762
00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:50,640
Speaker 2: are nine to one. The one game they went over,

763
00:36:51,440 --> 00:36:53,759
Speaker 2: I lost by half point, lost by half point. Northern

764
00:36:53,800 --> 00:36:56,000
Speaker 2: Illinois scored a touchdown on the final play the first

765
00:36:56,040 --> 00:36:58,960
Speaker 2: half and they scored in the final minute of the

766
00:36:59,000 --> 00:37:03,480
Speaker 2: game after fourth down bullshit pass interference on Kentucky. That's

767
00:37:03,520 --> 00:37:05,920
Speaker 2: what it took for Kentucky game to go over. This

768
00:37:06,040 --> 00:37:09,560
Speaker 2: offense is completely broken. They can't block, they can't run

769
00:37:09,600 --> 00:37:12,399
Speaker 2: the ball. They've lost all those offensive linemen, they lost

770
00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:15,160
Speaker 2: their offensive line coach. They just haven't been able to

771
00:37:15,160 --> 00:37:19,800
Speaker 2: figure it out. This offensive line is an absolute disaster.

772
00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:23,960
Speaker 2: Will Levis has been disastrous as well. I mean last

773
00:37:24,000 --> 00:37:25,880
Speaker 2: year they were Last year they were top five in

774
00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:29,120
Speaker 2: line yards, opportunity rates, stuff rate. This year seventy eighth

775
00:37:29,120 --> 00:37:31,319
Speaker 2: in line yards one hundred and second and opportunity rate

776
00:37:31,400 --> 00:37:34,560
Speaker 2: one hundred and eighth and stuff rate. Their sack rate's

777
00:37:34,560 --> 00:37:36,880
Speaker 2: also going from fifty fourth to one hundred and twenty ninth.

778
00:37:39,160 --> 00:37:41,239
Speaker 2: Levis had threw for twelve yards of the second half

779
00:37:41,239 --> 00:37:44,439
Speaker 2: against Vanderbilt's secondary, one of the worst secondaries in Power five.

780
00:37:44,880 --> 00:37:46,960
Speaker 2: They averaged five point two yards per carry last year

781
00:37:46,960 --> 00:37:49,960
Speaker 2: with the same exact backfield. This year that's six. That

782
00:37:50,040 --> 00:37:52,760
Speaker 2: was sixteenth in the country. This year three point five.

783
00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:56,320
Speaker 2: That's one hundred and tenth. The offense is bad. I

784
00:37:56,320 --> 00:37:58,160
Speaker 2: don't know how they're gonna move it here. They're gonna

785
00:37:58,200 --> 00:37:59,800
Speaker 2: come out, They're gonna play slowest, one of the slowest

786
00:37:59,840 --> 00:38:02,040
Speaker 2: team in the country. I think actually maybe the slowest.

787
00:38:02,120 --> 00:38:03,800
Speaker 2: They're going to try to run out a ton shorten

788
00:38:03,840 --> 00:38:08,240
Speaker 2: this game. There's a reason stoops unders in conference games

789
00:38:08,400 --> 00:38:11,040
Speaker 2: are fifty and thirty at sixty two and a half,

790
00:38:11,080 --> 00:38:13,600
Speaker 2: including eight in a row, have hit to the under.

791
00:38:14,080 --> 00:38:18,040
Speaker 2: Previous three meetings, Georgia won twenty one nothing, fourteen to three,

792
00:38:18,600 --> 00:38:21,279
Speaker 2: and thirty to thirteen, with Kentucky scored in the final

793
00:38:21,280 --> 00:38:23,880
Speaker 2: play of the game to cover. There also could be

794
00:38:23,920 --> 00:38:26,200
Speaker 2: some win. Deer, it's going to be cold. I think

795
00:38:26,239 --> 00:38:27,839
Speaker 2: this is under at an ugly game.

796
00:38:28,520 --> 00:38:30,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, the only play here is the under and that's

797
00:38:30,239 --> 00:38:32,359
Speaker 1: just been steamed and hit so hard this week from

798
00:38:32,400 --> 00:38:34,359
Speaker 1: fifty four down to forty eight and a half. And

799
00:38:35,040 --> 00:38:37,520
Speaker 1: listen these two coaches against each other, Kirby Smart and

800
00:38:37,520 --> 00:38:40,160
Speaker 1: Mark Stoops. They don't mind it being low, scoring forty

801
00:38:40,160 --> 00:38:43,080
Speaker 1: three points last year seventeen and twenty twenty twenty one

802
00:38:43,080 --> 00:38:45,960
Speaker 1: to zero in twenty nineteen. Stoops is happy in the

803
00:38:46,040 --> 00:38:49,880
Speaker 1: zone defense, keeping Georgia targets from explosive plays. You know,

804
00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:51,440
Speaker 1: the problem is, I don't know if this defense is

805
00:38:51,480 --> 00:38:54,160
Speaker 1: going to be able to keep those explosive plays after

806
00:38:54,239 --> 00:38:57,279
Speaker 1: watching that Tennessee game specifically, So I guess the question

807
00:38:57,400 --> 00:38:59,400
Speaker 1: is a Todd munkin want to you know, light up

808
00:38:59,440 --> 00:39:03,200
Speaker 1: the cats, Lad McConkey and brock Bauers underneath type stuff.

809
00:39:03,440 --> 00:39:05,040
Speaker 1: The only play you can make here is the under

810
00:39:05,080 --> 00:39:06,600
Speaker 1: and if I did play, it'd be for a low,

811
00:39:06,719 --> 00:39:07,280
Speaker 1: low amount.

812
00:39:07,719 --> 00:39:10,080
Speaker 2: But whenever the number one undefeated defending Chimps come to

813
00:39:10,120 --> 00:39:13,080
Speaker 2: your place, the bars will be pretty well, so I'd

814
00:39:13,080 --> 00:39:15,960
Speaker 2: be funny glad. All right, let's move on to our

815
00:39:16,080 --> 00:39:21,240
Speaker 2: next marquee game. Utah at Oregon. Oregon is a two

816
00:39:21,320 --> 00:39:25,320
Speaker 2: point home underdog now over under sixty. This game massive

817
00:39:25,320 --> 00:39:30,439
Speaker 2: implications for PAC twelve PAC twelve Championship. Hopefully Curtis works

818
00:39:30,480 --> 00:39:33,640
Speaker 2: okay from Ohio futures because I get that and see

819
00:39:33,719 --> 00:39:35,680
Speaker 2: him go down, and then later that night I'm hearing

820
00:39:35,680 --> 00:39:44,000
Speaker 2: bo next is going to be out for my Oregon futures,

821
00:39:45,440 --> 00:39:48,320
Speaker 2: which is why this line has gone from Oregon minus

822
00:39:48,320 --> 00:39:52,000
Speaker 2: three to Utah minus two. It's not been confirmed that

823
00:39:52,040 --> 00:39:55,520
Speaker 2: he's out, but that is the word. It was basically,

824
00:39:56,200 --> 00:39:59,680
Speaker 2: you know, Oregon wouldn't want Utah to know that, but

825
00:40:00,120 --> 00:40:02,759
Speaker 2: their wide receiver came out and he was just because

826
00:40:02,840 --> 00:40:05,719
Speaker 2: Nicks went down late in the game and then ended

827
00:40:05,760 --> 00:40:08,800
Speaker 2: up coming back in. But they during media interviews, someone

828
00:40:08,840 --> 00:40:11,840
Speaker 2: asked their one of the Orgon wide receivers. They're his

829
00:40:11,920 --> 00:40:14,920
Speaker 2: confidence level when backup ty Thompson if Knicks can't go,

830
00:40:15,000 --> 00:40:17,160
Speaker 2: and he said, obviously Bo is down, so it's the

831
00:40:17,160 --> 00:40:21,360
Speaker 2: next man up. And like then from there, the market's

832
00:40:21,400 --> 00:40:24,200
Speaker 2: just went wild and it's assumed that Knicks is going

833
00:40:24,239 --> 00:40:28,200
Speaker 2: to be out. Maybe it's all ploy but it looks

834
00:40:28,239 --> 00:40:31,600
Speaker 2: like ty Thompson is going to get the start at quarterback.

835
00:40:32,040 --> 00:40:35,680
Speaker 2: He is a very highly chalded recruit, four star kid,

836
00:40:36,719 --> 00:40:40,200
Speaker 2: can move his a rocket arm. Probably he projects as

837
00:40:40,239 --> 00:40:44,640
Speaker 2: like eventual he's young, I don't know, maybe a second, third,

838
00:40:44,680 --> 00:40:47,799
Speaker 2: fourth round pick if it all pans out. So he

839
00:40:47,800 --> 00:40:52,120
Speaker 2: has a lot of talent. The question is how much

840
00:40:52,120 --> 00:40:54,120
Speaker 2: of a drop off is it. This is his first start,

841
00:40:54,239 --> 00:40:58,160
Speaker 2: Like it's definitely going to be big learning curve. At

842
00:40:58,239 --> 00:41:00,480
Speaker 2: least he does get a week to practice with ones.

843
00:41:00,560 --> 00:41:03,560
Speaker 2: You can install some plays for him, but that's the

844
00:41:03,640 --> 00:41:06,920
Speaker 2: crux of this handicap. I will say that if this

845
00:41:07,040 --> 00:41:10,920
Speaker 2: line keeps going, I will give a serious look to Oregon.

846
00:41:11,520 --> 00:41:14,640
Speaker 2: You know, I think this Utah team has flaws, especially

847
00:41:14,640 --> 00:41:17,160
Speaker 2: on the defensive side of the ball. They also want

848
00:41:17,200 --> 00:41:20,279
Speaker 2: to run the ball like that's how everything starts, and

849
00:41:20,600 --> 00:41:22,160
Speaker 2: that's you don't want to do that against Oregon. Oregon's

850
00:41:22,200 --> 00:41:23,480
Speaker 2: run defense is good. You just want to throw them

851
00:41:23,480 --> 00:41:25,239
Speaker 2: all day, which is why we like Washington and they

852
00:41:25,239 --> 00:41:28,279
Speaker 2: were able to move it and Oregon's pass defense is horrific.

853
00:41:29,200 --> 00:41:31,640
Speaker 2: But when I look at, you know, Utah, what they've

854
00:41:31,680 --> 00:41:35,719
Speaker 2: done this year against any teams with a pulse. They

855
00:41:35,719 --> 00:41:39,920
Speaker 2: went to Florida and lost mobile quarterback. Florida's defense is

856
00:41:39,960 --> 00:41:42,680
Speaker 2: awful by but but very good running team. They went

857
00:41:42,719 --> 00:41:45,040
Speaker 2: they played Oregon State at home. You know, they won

858
00:41:45,080 --> 00:41:47,520
Speaker 2: forty two to sixteen. Oregon State had six turnovers, their

859
00:41:47,600 --> 00:41:50,120
Speaker 2: quarterback got hurt. They actually out gained Utah one of

860
00:41:50,120 --> 00:41:53,320
Speaker 2: the flukiest final scores of the year. They played usc

861
00:41:53,480 --> 00:41:56,120
Speaker 2: they won by one at home. Then you know, they

862
00:41:56,120 --> 00:41:59,479
Speaker 2: played Washington State. They had their backup quarterback. They didn't

863
00:41:59,520 --> 00:42:02,799
Speaker 2: cover that as well. So like I just on the road.

864
00:42:02,800 --> 00:42:06,200
Speaker 2: They've only played three road games at Washington State, at UCLA,

865
00:42:06,560 --> 00:42:10,600
Speaker 2: at Florida and wasn't overly impressed in all of them.

866
00:42:10,600 --> 00:42:13,040
Speaker 2: Their defense has issues, especially stopping the run, so can

867
00:42:13,080 --> 00:42:15,480
Speaker 2: Oregon rely on the run? Here? There's also the you know,

868
00:42:15,520 --> 00:42:16,960
Speaker 2: the kind of the mystery of what are they going

869
00:42:17,000 --> 00:42:19,319
Speaker 2: to do with Thompson? But I think Oregon will have

870
00:42:19,320 --> 00:42:22,040
Speaker 2: success running the ball and a lot of times in

871
00:42:22,080 --> 00:42:25,640
Speaker 2: these one game scenarios, if your quarterback is out and

872
00:42:25,719 --> 00:42:27,799
Speaker 2: you know what ahead of time, you know a lot

873
00:42:27,800 --> 00:42:29,800
Speaker 2: of times that quarterback plays over his head in the

874
00:42:29,840 --> 00:42:32,239
Speaker 2: first game, there's no film on him, but everyone else

875
00:42:32,280 --> 00:42:35,279
Speaker 2: steps up like you'll get like look at Arkansas last week.

876
00:42:35,320 --> 00:42:39,600
Speaker 2: Look on their defense was insane in a huge game

877
00:42:39,960 --> 00:42:44,520
Speaker 2: quarterbacks out against a really good opponent. But it's tough

878
00:42:44,560 --> 00:42:48,600
Speaker 2: to project. Utah did embarrass Oregon twice last year, both

879
00:42:48,600 --> 00:42:51,919
Speaker 2: away from Watson State. And this crowd should be wild, tough,

880
00:42:52,000 --> 00:42:54,120
Speaker 2: tough handicap here. What do you say, I don't.

881
00:42:53,960 --> 00:42:56,640
Speaker 1: Think bonus is in this game. You don't get a

882
00:42:56,760 --> 00:42:58,839
Speaker 1: huge move like this. It's got to be more than

883
00:42:58,920 --> 00:43:01,160
Speaker 1: just smoke. So le's just assume that he is out.

884
00:43:01,200 --> 00:43:03,440
Speaker 1: I think we need to ask ourselves what is bo

885
00:43:03,600 --> 00:43:06,719
Speaker 1: Nick's worth to the spread for Oregon? Is this a

886
00:43:06,840 --> 00:43:10,160
Speaker 1: Grayson McCall situation? Who in my opinion is more than

887
00:43:10,200 --> 00:43:11,960
Speaker 1: seven points, and you could think about it going all

888
00:43:12,000 --> 00:43:14,239
Speaker 1: the way up to ten. Now when you look at

889
00:43:14,280 --> 00:43:17,799
Speaker 1: ty Thompson, twenty passing attempts, no big time throws, two

890
00:43:17,800 --> 00:43:21,040
Speaker 1: interceptions he had fourteen attempts last year and two turnover

891
00:43:21,120 --> 00:43:23,799
Speaker 1: worthy plays, so he hasn't proven it through his arm

892
00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:26,440
Speaker 1: yet and he doesn't run whatsoever. He's had one scramble

893
00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:28,879
Speaker 1: in his career. He went for two yards. And that's

894
00:43:28,920 --> 00:43:30,520
Speaker 1: where bo Nix is going to be missed the most.

895
00:43:30,560 --> 00:43:33,799
Speaker 1: I mean Nix is averaging ten yards per scramble. He's

896
00:43:33,800 --> 00:43:36,400
Speaker 1: had five hundred and ten yards on the season, fourteen

897
00:43:36,600 --> 00:43:39,759
Speaker 1: rushing touchdowns. No other play on Organ has more than

898
00:43:39,800 --> 00:43:42,920
Speaker 1: four rushing touchdowns. That is a monster loss and ty

899
00:43:42,960 --> 00:43:45,120
Speaker 1: Thompson is not going to be able to replicate that.

900
00:43:45,400 --> 00:43:47,399
Speaker 1: It's going to cut out half the playbook for Organ.

901
00:43:47,840 --> 00:43:49,680
Speaker 1: So when you go a little bit deeper into the

902
00:43:49,719 --> 00:43:55,000
Speaker 1: injuries offensive line, Ryan Walk, Alex Forsidah, and then when

903
00:43:55,000 --> 00:43:56,239
Speaker 1: you get to the other side of the ball, I

904
00:43:56,239 --> 00:43:58,319
Speaker 1: mean the Utah handicap about what they're going to do.

905
00:43:58,520 --> 00:44:00,799
Speaker 1: But Utah does Orgon just had and seen they run

906
00:44:00,840 --> 00:44:04,080
Speaker 1: a heavy twelve thirteen. They've run fourteen this year. They

907
00:44:04,080 --> 00:44:06,680
Speaker 1: had four tight ends on the field. They use plenty

908
00:44:06,680 --> 00:44:09,480
Speaker 1: of play action passing and they're going to use Dldenkin

909
00:44:09,560 --> 00:44:13,120
Speaker 1: kid as much as they can. Left or right doesn't matter,

910
00:44:13,160 --> 00:44:16,280
Speaker 1: play action screens, whatever. And the Orgon defense is outside

911
00:44:16,280 --> 00:44:18,520
Speaker 1: the top one hundred and havoc and finishing drives, So

912
00:44:18,560 --> 00:44:21,480
Speaker 1: even though they've been stout against running the ball, everything

913
00:44:21,480 --> 00:44:24,040
Speaker 1: else is kind of falling off. And Oregon's defense is

914
00:44:24,040 --> 00:44:26,680
Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty eighth and third down defense. That

915
00:44:26,800 --> 00:44:28,560
Speaker 1: is a huge contrast to what Utah is going to

916
00:44:28,600 --> 00:44:31,200
Speaker 1: be able to do. If Utah wants to make these

917
00:44:31,600 --> 00:44:34,319
Speaker 1: fifteen play drives and drain nine minutes o' clock, they

918
00:44:34,320 --> 00:44:36,040
Speaker 1: could do that. I've put in a bunch of bets

919
00:44:36,080 --> 00:44:39,640
Speaker 1: on Utah, and Utah at plus was the play but

920
00:44:39,760 --> 00:44:43,520
Speaker 1: without bo Nicks and without the center. What's the number stuck?

921
00:44:43,600 --> 00:44:45,279
Speaker 1: Is it four? Is it five? Is at seven? Is

922
00:44:45,320 --> 00:44:47,600
Speaker 1: a ten? Bon Nicks? You look at those rushing numbers,

923
00:44:47,960 --> 00:44:50,520
Speaker 1: Holy cow, I mean you could combine all the other

924
00:44:50,600 --> 00:44:52,799
Speaker 1: running backs they have to put out that kind of production.

925
00:44:53,200 --> 00:44:55,719
Speaker 2: To play Devil's Advocate. I would agree, and I think

926
00:44:55,719 --> 00:44:58,640
Speaker 2: that Utah is the logical side I've just seen in

927
00:44:58,680 --> 00:45:02,080
Speaker 2: my life so many one off the first game without

928
00:45:02,120 --> 00:45:05,319
Speaker 2: the star quarterback, where everyone else steps up. They have

929
00:45:05,400 --> 00:45:10,000
Speaker 2: all these special plays that aren't on film. So and

930
00:45:10,080 --> 00:45:14,120
Speaker 2: maybe going up against like more tight ends and more,

931
00:45:14,600 --> 00:45:17,719
Speaker 2: you know, this different look will serve Moregons defense better

932
00:45:17,760 --> 00:45:20,880
Speaker 2: because they obviously can't cover receivers on the outside, and

933
00:45:20,880 --> 00:45:22,560
Speaker 2: I don't think the Utah is like a really great

934
00:45:22,600 --> 00:45:26,040
Speaker 2: receiving cores, So maybe it'll serve them better. Maybe I

935
00:45:26,120 --> 00:45:29,319
Speaker 2: just think, I look, I can't fault your handicap, and

936
00:45:29,320 --> 00:45:30,920
Speaker 2: who knows what you're gonna get from Ty Thompson. I

937
00:45:30,960 --> 00:45:33,799
Speaker 2: think Utah is the logical side. But I'm gonna go

938
00:45:33,800 --> 00:45:36,000
Speaker 2: out on a limb and my gut is Tommy Morgan's

939
00:45:36,040 --> 00:45:38,160
Speaker 2: gonna find a way to win. Might not end well.

940
00:45:38,920 --> 00:45:40,600
Speaker 2: All right, let's move on, let's stay in the back twelve.

941
00:45:40,640 --> 00:45:43,320
Speaker 2: We've going to our final market game USC at UCLA.

942
00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:48,520
Speaker 2: Ucla is a two and a half point home ish underdog.

943
00:45:48,640 --> 00:45:51,839
Speaker 2: It's really a neutral site in a way over under

944
00:45:51,960 --> 00:45:56,360
Speaker 2: seventy seven and a half. I like Ucla here. I

945
00:45:56,360 --> 00:45:58,720
Speaker 2: think that we're getting valued because of the UCLA's loss

946
00:45:58,800 --> 00:46:01,520
Speaker 2: last week against Ara's. But if you look back like

947
00:46:01,640 --> 00:46:04,560
Speaker 2: USC should have lost to Oregon State. They're in battles

948
00:46:04,560 --> 00:46:08,480
Speaker 2: of cal This defense is bad and it's the run defense,

949
00:46:09,160 --> 00:46:11,880
Speaker 2: and they can't stop anybody on the ground. And now

950
00:46:11,880 --> 00:46:15,239
Speaker 2: you're going up against one of the most prolific rush

951
00:46:15,280 --> 00:46:18,680
Speaker 2: attacks in all of college football. On the other side,

952
00:46:19,239 --> 00:46:22,360
Speaker 2: I do think Travis d matters, especially from a depth perspective.

953
00:46:22,360 --> 00:46:24,480
Speaker 2: There's gonna be a shit ton of plays in this game,

954
00:46:26,360 --> 00:46:31,080
Speaker 2: and their wide receivers might not be one healthy with

955
00:46:31,239 --> 00:46:35,480
Speaker 2: Mario Williams and Jordan Addison. I think UCLA is the

956
00:46:35,520 --> 00:46:39,200
Speaker 2: better overall team. Very similar teams here. You're gonna be

957
00:46:39,320 --> 00:46:43,800
Speaker 2: a ton of plays, really good quarterbacks, really good offensive lines,

958
00:46:44,840 --> 00:46:49,719
Speaker 2: you know, and bad defenses. But I think UCLA is

959
00:46:49,800 --> 00:46:52,080
Speaker 2: going to have more success on the early downs, find

960
00:46:52,080 --> 00:46:54,480
Speaker 2: a way to get a couple of stops, some passing

961
00:46:54,520 --> 00:46:56,480
Speaker 2: downs with some negative plays, and that's it. That's really

962
00:46:56,480 --> 00:46:58,239
Speaker 2: pretty much gonna be the difference in this game. But

963
00:46:58,480 --> 00:47:01,480
Speaker 2: I think the UCLA rushing attack goes off. DTR is

964
00:47:01,520 --> 00:47:06,040
Speaker 2: a massive game. The PAC twelve bylaws state that USC

965
00:47:06,160 --> 00:47:10,040
Speaker 2: must lose this game due to the cannibal h cannibalization

966
00:47:10,239 --> 00:47:13,919
Speaker 2: clause that is set in stone in the Pac twelve

967
00:47:13,920 --> 00:47:16,560
Speaker 2: by laws to ensure that no team from that conference

968
00:47:16,640 --> 00:47:19,200
Speaker 2: ever makes it back to the College Fall playoff. What

969
00:47:19,200 --> 00:47:19,759
Speaker 2: do you see here?

970
00:47:20,080 --> 00:47:22,560
Speaker 1: Well, if USC does win this game, we're Hammer and

971
00:47:22,600 --> 00:47:24,400
Speaker 1: Notre Dame the following week, because yes, those are the

972
00:47:24,400 --> 00:47:28,200
Speaker 1: bylaws that no Pac twelve team will ever one loss champion.

973
00:47:28,400 --> 00:47:31,920
Speaker 2: Ever, the bylaws state that you this year, these are

974
00:47:31,960 --> 00:47:34,080
Speaker 2: twenty twenty billos that you always take Notre Dame as

975
00:47:34,120 --> 00:47:36,000
Speaker 2: a dog and Fathom as a favorite.

976
00:47:36,080 --> 00:47:37,080
Speaker 1: So that's true.

977
00:47:37,200 --> 00:47:39,560
Speaker 2: What bylaws coming together? And I don't think US has

978
00:47:39,760 --> 00:47:42,320
Speaker 2: really seen a true mobile quarterback this year, but turnover

979
00:47:42,400 --> 00:47:45,160
Speaker 2: regression that's still coming to That could be how UCLA

980
00:47:45,360 --> 00:47:50,080
Speaker 2: gets a couple of stops. USC's plus seventeen still best

981
00:47:50,120 --> 00:47:54,000
Speaker 2: in the nation. UCLA is plus three and for what

982
00:47:54,000 --> 00:47:56,400
Speaker 2: it's worth, chip Kelly sixteen eight and two against the

983
00:47:56,440 --> 00:47:58,839
Speaker 2: spread as a conference underdog covered by eight points per game.

984
00:47:59,200 --> 00:48:03,040
Speaker 2: How about this one against the spread as a short

985
00:48:03,120 --> 00:48:07,320
Speaker 2: underdog in conference play that's between one and three points

986
00:48:07,440 --> 00:48:09,560
Speaker 2: nine to zero and one against the spread.

987
00:48:09,680 --> 00:48:12,080
Speaker 1: What do you say if I put a play in

988
00:48:12,120 --> 00:48:14,279
Speaker 1: on USC, I'm not going to have a play in

989
00:48:14,320 --> 00:48:17,479
Speaker 1: the app on Ucla, even though I have heavy money

990
00:48:17,520 --> 00:48:19,920
Speaker 1: in this game on Ucla, and it's because I have

991
00:48:20,080 --> 00:48:23,000
Speaker 1: USC under nine a half wins on the season, and

992
00:48:23,160 --> 00:48:26,400
Speaker 1: for anything, I should be betting USC to kind of

993
00:48:26,440 --> 00:48:29,000
Speaker 1: hedge out of that win total ticket. So if you

994
00:48:29,080 --> 00:48:31,520
Speaker 1: see a USC play, come in during the game because

995
00:48:31,560 --> 00:48:34,440
Speaker 1: I'm possibly taking Ucla gets a two score lead and

996
00:48:34,440 --> 00:48:36,600
Speaker 1: I'm trying to take the other side. You'll see that.

997
00:48:36,640 --> 00:48:39,320
Speaker 1: So don't freak out if everybody sees that. But I agree,

998
00:48:39,520 --> 00:48:42,040
Speaker 1: I love I told Brett on the New BCS, I

999
00:48:42,080 --> 00:48:45,439
Speaker 1: love the Ucla play. I am back on Ucla. Both

1000
00:48:45,480 --> 00:48:49,200
Speaker 1: these offenses have two methods of explosive plays. UCLA is

1001
00:48:49,239 --> 00:48:52,400
Speaker 1: ground based with DTR and Zach Charboney and USC's defense

1002
00:48:52,400 --> 00:48:54,400
Speaker 1: allows first downs at one of the highest rates in

1003
00:48:54,400 --> 00:48:58,160
Speaker 1: all of FBS. USC is near dead last, allowing thirty

1004
00:48:58,239 --> 00:49:01,920
Speaker 1: yard gains on the ground. That's really good news for UCLA.

1005
00:49:02,000 --> 00:49:06,280
Speaker 1: On offense, USC gets its explosive plays through the air

1006
00:49:06,480 --> 00:49:09,600
Speaker 1: after Caleb Williams scrambles. Are there going to be scrambles

1007
00:49:09,600 --> 00:49:11,920
Speaker 1: in this game? You bet there are. Because UCLA is

1008
00:49:12,000 --> 00:49:14,680
Speaker 1: eighteenth in pass rush. They are going to flush Caleb

1009
00:49:14,719 --> 00:49:16,719
Speaker 1: Williams out of the pocket and that's where he's going

1010
00:49:16,760 --> 00:49:19,320
Speaker 1: to try to do all his work. So assuming Bill McGovern,

1011
00:49:19,480 --> 00:49:21,600
Speaker 1: the defensive coordinator for USLA, is smart enough to put

1012
00:49:21,600 --> 00:49:24,880
Speaker 1: a linebacker spy and that he can coach the secondary

1013
00:49:24,920 --> 00:49:27,680
Speaker 1: to stick with their assignments, that's the critical portion of

1014
00:49:27,719 --> 00:49:29,680
Speaker 1: beating USC here. So they're going to be able to

1015
00:49:29,680 --> 00:49:31,480
Speaker 1: flush Caleb Williams out and it's going to come down

1016
00:49:31,480 --> 00:49:33,760
Speaker 1: to his playmaking ability, and there's going to be scoring

1017
00:49:33,800 --> 00:49:35,400
Speaker 1: on both sides. But I think when you look at

1018
00:49:35,440 --> 00:49:38,040
Speaker 1: a total this high and you look at the spread,

1019
00:49:38,920 --> 00:49:42,760
Speaker 1: you want to really assess do these teams have quality

1020
00:49:42,800 --> 00:49:44,880
Speaker 1: drives that end in points or do they stop themselves?

1021
00:49:45,280 --> 00:49:48,120
Speaker 1: And that's where you can really fade USC one hundred

1022
00:49:48,120 --> 00:49:50,319
Speaker 1: and eighth in penalties. They love to take themselves out

1023
00:49:50,320 --> 00:49:53,840
Speaker 1: of drives. USC struggles in punt efficiency. That's great for

1024
00:49:53,920 --> 00:49:57,960
Speaker 1: USAA field position. USC struggles in kickoff return efficiency, that's

1025
00:49:58,000 --> 00:49:59,520
Speaker 1: great for UCLA field position.

1026
00:50:00,400 --> 00:50:02,600
Speaker 2: Their special teams are bad, Yeah, real bad.

1027
00:50:02,719 --> 00:50:04,480
Speaker 1: You know, I'm not fading USC because they don't have

1028
00:50:04,520 --> 00:50:07,600
Speaker 1: Travis Die. I think Austin Jones is a fine replacement

1029
00:50:07,640 --> 00:50:09,640
Speaker 1: for any collegeable team having Austin Jones.

1030
00:50:09,880 --> 00:50:11,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's gonna be so many snaps. I think they're

1031
00:50:11,680 --> 00:50:13,239
Speaker 2: gonna miss it from a depth perspective, like.

1032
00:50:13,200 --> 00:50:15,040
Speaker 1: You true, yeah, the depth. The depth is becoming a

1033
00:50:15,040 --> 00:50:16,640
Speaker 1: big problem on both sides of the ball for usce

1034
00:50:16,760 --> 00:50:18,480
Speaker 1: So yeah, you sail all the way here for me.

1035
00:50:18,880 --> 00:50:22,280
Speaker 2: She'ld be an exciting one to watch all right before

1036
00:50:22,320 --> 00:50:24,920
Speaker 2: we continue. As a reminder, the Big Bets on Campus

1037
00:50:24,960 --> 00:50:28,560
Speaker 2: podcast is probably presented by bet MGM. So kick off

1038
00:50:28,560 --> 00:50:31,320
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1039
00:50:31,480 --> 00:50:34,520
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1040
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1042
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1043
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1044
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1048
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1053
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1054
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1055
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1056
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1057
00:51:30,360 --> 00:51:32,680
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1058
00:51:32,760 --> 00:51:35,120
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1059
00:51:35,200 --> 00:51:37,719
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1060
00:51:37,760 --> 00:51:39,440
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1061
00:51:39,440 --> 00:51:42,759
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1062
00:51:42,920 --> 00:51:44,719
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1063
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1064
00:51:47,360 --> 00:51:49,719
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1065
00:51:49,840 --> 00:51:53,080
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1066
00:51:53,239 --> 00:51:57,080
Speaker 2: Nevada and New York. Let's go a little rapid fire

1067
00:51:57,160 --> 00:52:01,160
Speaker 2: here through some other games. We got to talk bedlam.

1068
00:52:01,719 --> 00:52:04,960
Speaker 2: Not as exciting as in years past, but Oklahoma State

1069
00:52:04,960 --> 00:52:07,160
Speaker 2: still is like some wild shot to get to the

1070
00:52:07,160 --> 00:52:10,080
Speaker 2: Big twelve title. They are seven and a half point

1071
00:52:10,320 --> 00:52:16,239
Speaker 2: underdogs at Oklahoma. Oklahoma still fighting for bull eligibility five

1072
00:52:16,280 --> 00:52:19,959
Speaker 2: and five. This game in the NAT Texas Tech coming

1073
00:52:20,000 --> 00:52:22,520
Speaker 2: off a really bad loss against West Virginia, though, was

1074
00:52:22,520 --> 00:52:25,200
Speaker 2: a bit fluky. I mean, Gundhy has been great as

1075
00:52:25,200 --> 00:52:27,960
Speaker 2: a dog and this is a real dog number. Spencer

1076
00:52:27,960 --> 00:52:30,240
Speaker 2: stand is going to play? How healthy is he? Oklahoma

1077
00:52:30,320 --> 00:52:32,160
Speaker 2: State is so flawed in so many ways. If so

1078
00:52:32,160 --> 00:52:37,360
Speaker 2: many lucky wins man, I would lean Oklahoma here. Probably

1079
00:52:37,360 --> 00:52:40,480
Speaker 2: can lean on their ground game. I would assume against

1080
00:52:40,480 --> 00:52:43,719
Speaker 2: Oklahoma State's rush defense, which has not been good, but

1081
00:52:44,400 --> 00:52:46,200
Speaker 2: I'm not sure I'm going to get involved. You have

1082
00:52:46,160 --> 00:52:47,000
Speaker 2: a strong take here.

1083
00:52:47,440 --> 00:52:49,680
Speaker 1: Well, yeah, the numbers too high, like this is the

1084
00:52:49,760 --> 00:52:51,920
Speaker 1: number one. It should be if Spencer Sanders wasn't playing.

1085
00:52:52,239 --> 00:52:54,840
Speaker 1: But Spencer Sanders came out and said I'm playing in

1086
00:52:54,880 --> 00:52:56,680
Speaker 1: this game. And then when they asked my Gundy about it.

1087
00:52:56,719 --> 00:52:58,840
Speaker 1: My Gundy said he's in charge of whether or not

1088
00:52:58,840 --> 00:53:02,279
Speaker 1: he's playing, which makes total sense what happened in Iowa State, right,

1089
00:53:02,360 --> 00:53:04,200
Speaker 1: It wasn't gun to be holding him back. It's like

1090
00:53:04,360 --> 00:53:07,359
Speaker 1: I guess Spencer Sanders is giving himself the green light

1091
00:53:07,400 --> 00:53:10,640
Speaker 1: in the red light, which is quite interesting. So, you know,

1092
00:53:10,680 --> 00:53:12,799
Speaker 1: although the having numbers don't say it, these two teams

1093
00:53:12,840 --> 00:53:15,480
Speaker 1: are some of the best defenses and tackles for loss,

1094
00:53:15,800 --> 00:53:17,960
Speaker 1: so their overall having numbers don't show up. But both

1095
00:53:18,000 --> 00:53:20,760
Speaker 1: these teams do get into the backfield quite a difference

1096
00:53:20,800 --> 00:53:23,440
Speaker 1: from a defensive side, and there's just a massive difference

1097
00:53:23,440 --> 00:53:26,239
Speaker 1: in run blocking here. Ou is fourteenth, Oklahoma State is

1098
00:53:26,280 --> 00:53:28,319
Speaker 1: one hundred and thirteenth. So definitely something there for the

1099
00:53:28,360 --> 00:53:30,279
Speaker 1: Sooners where they're not going to allow Oklahoma State to

1100
00:53:30,320 --> 00:53:33,359
Speaker 1: play in the backfield. And the question becomes in can

1101
00:53:33,640 --> 00:53:36,399
Speaker 1: Ken Dylan Gabriel have a clean game? He owns half

1102
00:53:36,480 --> 00:53:40,200
Speaker 1: of Oklahoma's fumbles this season. Big money came in moved

1103
00:53:40,200 --> 00:53:42,280
Speaker 1: this from Oklahoma six and a half up to seven

1104
00:53:42,280 --> 00:53:45,280
Speaker 1: and a half. In my opinion, it should be like five.

1105
00:53:45,320 --> 00:53:47,040
Speaker 1: I mean, this is like a number. This should be there.

1106
00:53:47,080 --> 00:53:49,640
Speaker 1: If Spencer Sanders isn't playing, but he is playing. So

1107
00:53:49,719 --> 00:53:51,640
Speaker 1: now I'm kind of in limbo land where I want

1108
00:53:51,680 --> 00:53:54,440
Speaker 1: to play the Cowboys. I see everything you see, defenses,

1109
00:53:54,680 --> 00:53:59,320
Speaker 1: you know, injuries, defense, inefficiency, a little bit of smokescreen

1110
00:53:59,400 --> 00:54:01,640
Speaker 1: all season. But if Spencer Sanders is playing, they have

1111
00:54:01,680 --> 00:54:03,560
Speaker 1: a shot to win this game. Just think the numbers,

1112
00:54:03,560 --> 00:54:04,880
Speaker 1: two hights and I'm going to sit around and kind

1113
00:54:04,880 --> 00:54:06,760
Speaker 1: of wrestle with it for the next forty eight hours.

1114
00:54:07,200 --> 00:54:09,439
Speaker 2: I'll tell you I would not be betting Oklahoma State here

1115
00:54:10,239 --> 00:54:12,920
Speaker 2: a half, no, no, no chance. You know I need

1116
00:54:12,960 --> 00:54:16,080
Speaker 2: fourteen and a half. This is what happens to Olahoma State.

1117
00:54:16,120 --> 00:54:20,800
Speaker 2: They either get to destroyed like by Kansas Prisia State,

1118
00:54:20,960 --> 00:54:22,719
Speaker 2: or they win the most flukiest game.

1119
00:54:23,320 --> 00:54:23,560
Speaker 1: True.

1120
00:54:23,840 --> 00:54:25,719
Speaker 2: This win this win total. They should have about three

1121
00:54:25,719 --> 00:54:28,279
Speaker 2: wins on the air. Losing this win total is going

1122
00:54:28,360 --> 00:54:31,040
Speaker 2: to be miserable. They're going to go over on the

1123
00:54:31,120 --> 00:54:36,560
Speaker 2: last game against West Virginia one time, Neo Brown one

1124
00:54:36,640 --> 00:54:39,920
Speaker 2: time for the justice of that ticket. I guess I

1125
00:54:39,920 --> 00:54:43,120
Speaker 2: could hedge off, but probably be an expensive hedge. But yeah,

1126
00:54:43,200 --> 00:54:46,080
Speaker 2: I think Oklahoma rolls. But I think everyone is going

1127
00:54:46,160 --> 00:54:49,920
Speaker 2: to roll Oclahma State every week, all right, Boise at Wyoming,

1128
00:54:50,560 --> 00:54:56,440
Speaker 2: massive game in the Mountain West. It's interesting that you

1129
00:54:56,480 --> 00:54:57,919
Speaker 2: know the winner of this game will be in first

1130
00:54:57,920 --> 00:55:01,600
Speaker 2: place in the division. But Wyoming could then lose to

1131
00:55:01,640 --> 00:55:03,399
Speaker 2: Fresdo next week. With Fresdent don't have to be playing

1132
00:55:03,400 --> 00:55:06,040
Speaker 2: any I think, and then a Boise wins their game,

1133
00:55:06,080 --> 00:55:09,160
Speaker 2: then they would actually then jump that rejump Wyoming. They

1134
00:55:09,200 --> 00:55:13,480
Speaker 2: beat Utah State at home, Wyoming fourteen point home underdog

1135
00:55:13,560 --> 00:55:17,040
Speaker 2: here over under sitting at forty three, forty three and

1136
00:55:17,080 --> 00:55:22,120
Speaker 2: a half. This game is in Laramie in November, So

1137
00:55:22,160 --> 00:55:23,920
Speaker 2: the first thing you have to do is check the

1138
00:55:23,920 --> 00:55:26,879
Speaker 2: weather and we'll see if there's any updated weather not bad,

1139
00:55:27,000 --> 00:55:28,960
Speaker 2: not bad wins or like ten eleven, so as you

1140
00:55:29,000 --> 00:55:31,160
Speaker 2: can get some thirty forty nine hour wins in Laramie

1141
00:55:31,239 --> 00:55:34,319
Speaker 2: this time of year. Wyoming a really really fortunate win

1142
00:55:35,080 --> 00:55:37,120
Speaker 2: last week. What do you see here?

1143
00:55:38,040 --> 00:55:39,759
Speaker 1: I think the numbers two I should be closer to

1144
00:55:39,800 --> 00:55:42,080
Speaker 1: eleven and a half. But there is fear for backing

1145
00:55:42,080 --> 00:55:44,600
Speaker 1: Wyoming in this spot, you know, I mean from a

1146
00:55:44,600 --> 00:55:48,000
Speaker 1: Boise perspective. Running back George Hallane, quarterback Taylor Green. They've

1147
00:55:48,040 --> 00:55:50,440
Speaker 1: been a solid one two punch. Green hasn't throw an

1148
00:55:50,440 --> 00:55:53,000
Speaker 1: interception in three games, and Halane has seven touchdowns in

1149
00:55:53,080 --> 00:55:55,280
Speaker 1: his last three games. He's averaging three point four yards

1150
00:55:55,320 --> 00:55:58,080
Speaker 1: after contact. When you look at the Wyoming defense one

1151
00:55:58,160 --> 00:56:00,920
Speaker 1: hundred and thirtieth in tackle grading, I mean, Boise's not

1152
00:56:00,960 --> 00:56:03,040
Speaker 1: really an explosive offense. But at the same time, you

1153
00:56:03,080 --> 00:56:05,360
Speaker 1: give me one hundred and thirtieth in tackle grading on defense,

1154
00:56:05,400 --> 00:56:08,040
Speaker 1: and you're gonna be able to bust some runs. Four

1155
00:56:08,080 --> 00:56:11,359
Speaker 1: straight wins here for for Wyoming, but they came again.

1156
00:56:11,400 --> 00:56:12,799
Speaker 1: I mean, think about this rise of may Stuf. This

1157
00:56:12,840 --> 00:56:14,520
Speaker 1: is the whole problem with Mountain West plays. You just

1158
00:56:14,560 --> 00:56:19,320
Speaker 1: got these duds, right, Wyoming's four straight wins Colorado State, Hawaii,

1159
00:56:19,719 --> 00:56:23,319
Speaker 1: Utah State, and New Mexico not exactly murderer's row here.

1160
00:56:23,560 --> 00:56:25,080
Speaker 1: Then you go when you look at Wyoming and their

1161
00:56:25,120 --> 00:56:27,560
Speaker 1: quarterback now might not even play. Andrew Peasley might not

1162
00:56:27,600 --> 00:56:29,759
Speaker 1: go in this game with an injury. He has more

1163
00:56:30,600 --> 00:56:33,040
Speaker 1: double as many turnover worth he plays as big time throws.

1164
00:56:33,120 --> 00:56:35,160
Speaker 1: So you have to ask, is they're like a real

1165
00:56:35,160 --> 00:56:38,120
Speaker 1: big jump to the backup Jaden Clemens only his thirteen

1166
00:56:38,200 --> 00:56:40,919
Speaker 1: passing attempts this season, so not a lot to base

1167
00:56:40,920 --> 00:56:43,400
Speaker 1: off of. But Wyoming's a rush first offense. As I

1168
00:56:43,520 --> 00:56:46,680
Speaker 1: say all that that Boise should win this game just

1169
00:56:46,719 --> 00:56:49,480
Speaker 1: from what Wyoming wants to do, how they can't tackle.

1170
00:56:50,320 --> 00:56:52,319
Speaker 1: Laramie has been a house of hordes for Boise State.

1171
00:56:52,560 --> 00:56:55,880
Speaker 1: Like just historically the Broncos have covered once in their

1172
00:56:55,960 --> 00:56:59,640
Speaker 1: last seven trips here. I don't believe. But then again,

1173
00:56:59,640 --> 00:57:01,799
Speaker 1: I don't think Wyoming's actually won this game in like

1174
00:57:01,880 --> 00:57:04,879
Speaker 1: fifteen tries. So at the same time, Boise can't cover,

1175
00:57:04,960 --> 00:57:06,759
Speaker 1: They don't cover when they come to layer me. So

1176
00:57:06,840 --> 00:57:08,919
Speaker 1: I think at fourteen or higher this is a play

1177
00:57:08,960 --> 00:57:11,880
Speaker 1: on Wyoming. But you're taking a defense that can't tackle,

1178
00:57:12,080 --> 00:57:14,959
Speaker 1: and you're taking a backup quarterback. So I would I'd

1179
00:57:14,960 --> 00:57:16,440
Speaker 1: be patient if you're gonna play it, I would just

1180
00:57:16,520 --> 00:57:18,640
Speaker 1: see if maybe a rogue fourteen and a half comes out.

1181
00:57:18,960 --> 00:57:20,440
Speaker 1: But that's probably gonna be on the news that you're

1182
00:57:20,440 --> 00:57:22,240
Speaker 1: getting a backup quarterback with no experience.

1183
00:57:22,920 --> 00:57:26,360
Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, tough game, But Craig Goule just finds ways

1184
00:57:26,360 --> 00:57:27,920
Speaker 2: to cover these types of games. I think it's Wyoming

1185
00:57:28,040 --> 00:57:31,240
Speaker 2: or nothing. I have to mention, we have to mention

1186
00:57:31,400 --> 00:57:36,520
Speaker 2: Iowa at Minnesota, which has big ten West, which is

1187
00:57:36,520 --> 00:57:40,400
Speaker 2: a mess right now. Division implications and the only reason

1188
00:57:40,400 --> 00:57:42,000
Speaker 2: I have to bring it up is because it is

1189
00:57:42,040 --> 00:57:46,600
Speaker 2: the lowest total of all time. The total is at

1190
00:57:46,640 --> 00:57:49,560
Speaker 2: the FBS level, it's thirty two and a half. I

1191
00:57:49,560 --> 00:57:51,200
Speaker 2: don't know how any of these teams get to thirty

1192
00:57:51,200 --> 00:57:54,320
Speaker 2: two and a half, but that's really low total. To

1193
00:57:54,320 --> 00:57:56,000
Speaker 2: go under gon do your head over.

1194
00:57:55,920 --> 00:57:59,080
Speaker 1: Or under over? Oh I'm actually thinking about but actually

1195
00:57:59,160 --> 00:58:04,280
Speaker 1: laying cash money one hundred dollars. Just let it fly

1196
00:58:04,480 --> 00:58:06,160
Speaker 1: in the air. If I never see it again, fine,

1197
00:58:06,200 --> 00:58:09,479
Speaker 1: I mean, come on, thirty it's not even thirty thirty

1198
00:58:09,520 --> 00:58:12,760
Speaker 1: one and a half. Come on, I don't want to

1199
00:58:12,760 --> 00:58:14,920
Speaker 1: hear about the weather. I mean, it's Iowa, Minnesota. They

1200
00:58:14,920 --> 00:58:16,960
Speaker 1: live in this shit for us seven eight months at

1201
00:58:16,960 --> 00:58:19,200
Speaker 1: Minnesota has got a great running game, and Iowa is

1202
00:58:19,240 --> 00:58:21,520
Speaker 1: not like world beaters. Older defensive line weighs like two

1203
00:58:21,560 --> 00:58:23,919
Speaker 1: hundred and sixty pounds. I mean, these teams are gonna

1204
00:58:23,920 --> 00:58:25,920
Speaker 1: get in the scoring position there. I mean thirty one

1205
00:58:25,920 --> 00:58:28,560
Speaker 1: and a half, thirty two points. Here's one hundred dollars

1206
00:58:28,640 --> 00:58:31,080
Speaker 1: just floating the wind. I'm gonna put it in the app.

1207
00:58:31,200 --> 00:58:34,280
Speaker 1: Make it a half unit. Go right, you're joining me?

1208
00:58:34,840 --> 00:58:39,600
Speaker 2: No, I will not bet an Iowa Minnesota over Akron Buffalo.

1209
00:58:39,600 --> 00:58:40,640
Speaker 2: I just want to bring this up. I don't know

1210
00:58:40,640 --> 00:58:43,720
Speaker 2: I they're gonna play this game the Unders at forty five,

1211
00:58:44,360 --> 00:58:46,000
Speaker 2: you would assalve if you follow me on the app.

1212
00:58:46,000 --> 00:58:48,200
Speaker 2: I bet it earlier in the week at a higher number.

1213
00:58:48,720 --> 00:58:50,960
Speaker 2: I still like it at forty five. I don't know

1214
00:58:50,960 --> 00:58:52,880
Speaker 2: if they're gonna play Acron and somehow gonna have to

1215
00:58:52,880 --> 00:58:55,200
Speaker 2: get the Buffalo. Think they're shutting down the highways. This

1216
00:58:55,240 --> 00:58:57,040
Speaker 2: is not a snowbird. I talk about this in the

1217
00:58:57,120 --> 00:58:59,080
Speaker 2: NFL Pod. You can have a lot of points if

1218
00:58:59,120 --> 00:59:01,280
Speaker 2: there's only like an inch sell on the ground, But

1219
00:59:01,880 --> 00:59:04,880
Speaker 2: this is projected like three to four feet there. No

1220
00:59:04,880 --> 00:59:07,760
Speaker 2: one's gonna be able to move and everyone goes so slow.

1221
00:59:07,880 --> 00:59:10,120
Speaker 2: Either wipe the ball off. No one can communicate, no

1222
00:59:10,120 --> 00:59:13,520
Speaker 2: one can see that. These games end like ten to seven.

1223
00:59:13,840 --> 00:59:16,440
Speaker 2: Akron can't run the ball, the worst rush offense in

1224
00:59:16,480 --> 00:59:20,120
Speaker 2: the country. Buffalo can't run it. Both teams have secondaries

1225
00:59:20,160 --> 00:59:22,840
Speaker 2: you can exploit. DJ Irons is out by the way.

1226
00:59:22,880 --> 00:59:26,400
Speaker 2: The Acron quarterback, it looks like their backups terrible can't move.

1227
00:59:27,480 --> 00:59:29,680
Speaker 2: How's that the only offense Acron has is throwing it

1228
00:59:29,680 --> 00:59:31,560
Speaker 2: to their good receivers with the Irons buying time by

1229
00:59:31,640 --> 00:59:34,520
Speaker 2: the worst offensive line in college football. How they're going

1230
00:59:34,600 --> 00:59:36,920
Speaker 2: to move in a blizzard? How's Buffalo going to throw

1231
00:59:36,960 --> 00:59:39,880
Speaker 2: to their good receivers in a blizzer? Because Akrons run

1232
00:59:39,880 --> 00:59:42,600
Speaker 2: to he's good, their passy is horrific. Can't really take

1233
00:59:42,600 --> 00:59:44,280
Speaker 2: advantage of that and wins in a blizzard. If this

1234
00:59:44,320 --> 00:59:46,800
Speaker 2: game gets played, unless there's like you know, a bunch

1235
00:59:46,840 --> 00:59:48,880
Speaker 2: of tournament, it could be it's the math. This game

1236
00:59:48,920 --> 00:59:52,920
Speaker 2: could end like eight nothing. San Jose State at Utah State.

1237
00:59:54,480 --> 00:59:57,160
Speaker 2: This game is trending towards a pick. It looks like

1238
00:59:57,240 --> 01:00:00,720
Speaker 2: Utah State's taking money. San Jose State's been bad of late.

1239
01:00:01,040 --> 01:00:02,320
Speaker 2: I think I saw you put a play in a

1240
01:00:02,400 --> 01:00:04,040
Speaker 2: Utah State You like the yagis here?

1241
01:00:04,640 --> 01:00:07,080
Speaker 1: Well, I love San Jose State. I backed them more

1242
01:00:07,120 --> 01:00:09,240
Speaker 1: than half this season, and Shavan Cordero be in the

1243
01:00:09,240 --> 01:00:11,440
Speaker 1: transfer and now things have just fallen apart. They had

1244
01:00:11,440 --> 01:00:15,400
Speaker 1: a team that a team may pass away. They have

1245
01:00:16,200 --> 01:00:20,840
Speaker 1: not covered since they haven't covered since something those yeah,

1246
01:00:20,880 --> 01:00:23,120
Speaker 1: and so I can't look at the season long statistics.

1247
01:00:23,440 --> 01:00:26,120
Speaker 1: I can't look at Shavon Cordero's box scores. There's something

1248
01:00:26,160 --> 01:00:28,640
Speaker 1: going on. With the defense and the offense is inefficient,

1249
01:00:28,760 --> 01:00:31,240
Speaker 1: and something's going on off field and I don't want

1250
01:00:31,240 --> 01:00:34,000
Speaker 1: to touch it. Meanwhile, Utah State's got that hunger for

1251
01:00:34,040 --> 01:00:37,240
Speaker 1: a bowl, right, Let's keep Blake Anderson employed and everything's

1252
01:00:37,280 --> 01:00:38,680
Speaker 1: going to be happy. But no, I mean, from a

1253
01:00:38,720 --> 01:00:41,440
Speaker 1: box score perspective, Santose States really going to have a

1254
01:00:41,560 --> 01:00:44,640
Speaker 1: problem going after Utah State offensively what they want to do.

1255
01:00:44,720 --> 01:00:46,680
Speaker 1: And I'm not going to trust Santose State on the

1256
01:00:46,720 --> 01:00:48,920
Speaker 1: road whatsoever. And I had a feeling that this would

1257
01:00:49,000 --> 01:00:51,800
Speaker 1: probably close with Utah State as a favorite, so I

1258
01:00:51,840 --> 01:00:53,400
Speaker 1: jumped in early on it. But I'm not going to

1259
01:00:53,440 --> 01:00:56,240
Speaker 1: play it back on San Jose State. That's we wanted

1260
01:00:56,280 --> 01:00:58,480
Speaker 1: some trash.

1261
01:00:58,720 --> 01:00:59,600
Speaker 2: What's that smell?

1262
01:01:00,200 --> 01:01:04,960
Speaker 1: It's tinks me. This trash, the sweet, sweet trash.

1263
01:01:05,880 --> 01:01:09,080
Speaker 2: The trash is a gold mine, old mine. I got

1264
01:01:09,160 --> 01:01:12,760
Speaker 2: five games and my sixth is actually going to be

1265
01:01:13,040 --> 01:01:15,800
Speaker 2: when we go three and out technically, but it's a favor.

1266
01:01:16,280 --> 01:01:20,600
Speaker 2: Let's start Boston College catching three touchdowns against Notre Dame.

1267
01:01:20,640 --> 01:01:23,680
Speaker 2: I'll give for those new here. I these have gone

1268
01:01:23,680 --> 01:01:26,200
Speaker 2: really well. We have we have one more weekend, maybe two,

1269
01:01:26,240 --> 01:01:28,960
Speaker 2: to survive a disaster Saturday, which can always happen to

1270
01:01:29,000 --> 01:01:31,520
Speaker 2: make sure you've bet responsibly. But it's been my best

1271
01:01:31,600 --> 01:01:34,360
Speaker 2: year by far betting trash. I think these have hit

1272
01:01:34,600 --> 01:01:39,640
Speaker 2: sixty three percent this year. So let's start BC catching

1273
01:01:39,640 --> 01:01:43,080
Speaker 2: three touchdowns. We talked about this ended at this earlier.

1274
01:01:43,080 --> 01:01:46,120
Speaker 2: Notre Dame a pretty simple team. It appears they're young,

1275
01:01:46,440 --> 01:01:50,120
Speaker 2: they're inexperienced first year head coach. They just play up

1276
01:01:50,160 --> 01:01:53,080
Speaker 2: and down their level competition. Seam lost to Stanford at home.

1277
01:01:53,920 --> 01:01:56,040
Speaker 2: That's the Marshall at home. They could have lost the

1278
01:01:56,120 --> 01:01:58,640
Speaker 2: cal at home. They were four to zero against the

1279
01:01:58,640 --> 01:02:01,360
Speaker 2: spread as an underdog, one against the spread as a favorite.

1280
01:02:01,480 --> 01:02:04,480
Speaker 2: Oh win five is a double digit favorite. Two outright

1281
01:02:04,520 --> 01:02:07,520
Speaker 2: losses and another pair of one possession victories also a

1282
01:02:07,640 --> 01:02:11,680
Speaker 2: USC on deck not a great spot. And Boston College

1283
01:02:11,720 --> 01:02:13,680
Speaker 2: is seemingly found a spark at quarterback with em at

1284
01:02:13,760 --> 01:02:15,880
Speaker 2: Moreed who I was like clowning a couple weeks ago.

1285
01:02:15,880 --> 01:02:17,640
Speaker 2: He's throwing like three hundred yards. He just threw three

1286
01:02:17,720 --> 01:02:19,680
Speaker 2: thirty against MC State in a win they went out

1287
01:02:19,760 --> 01:02:22,800
Speaker 2: at NC State. I guess Phil Jerkovic was the problem

1288
01:02:23,280 --> 01:02:25,560
Speaker 2: with their offensive line. They seem to fix the couple things.

1289
01:02:25,560 --> 01:02:28,600
Speaker 2: They obviously have talentent receiver, too many points for Notre

1290
01:02:28,680 --> 01:02:31,080
Speaker 2: Dame to too many points of Notredame to lay. I

1291
01:02:31,160 --> 01:02:31,800
Speaker 2: won't be c here.

1292
01:02:32,120 --> 01:02:34,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, Notre Dame is not very good at covering numbers

1293
01:02:34,680 --> 01:02:37,280
Speaker 1: this large. Then again, you look at Notre Dame's covers

1294
01:02:37,400 --> 01:02:40,320
Speaker 1: or sixty fifth pretty much mid FBS, and they do

1295
01:02:40,400 --> 01:02:44,560
Speaker 1: give up explosive plays through the area hours it's past EPA,

1296
01:02:44,800 --> 01:02:48,280
Speaker 1: So that's probably I'm not saying everybody out there is

1297
01:02:48,560 --> 01:02:50,480
Speaker 1: looking at these kinds of numbers, but that's probably why

1298
01:02:50,480 --> 01:02:52,000
Speaker 1: we've crossed your twenty one and gone to twenty and

1299
01:02:52,040 --> 01:02:52,320
Speaker 1: a half.

1300
01:02:52,680 --> 01:02:54,200
Speaker 2: So you agree or disagree?

1301
01:02:54,520 --> 01:02:55,720
Speaker 1: Does that mean I have to play it?

1302
01:02:55,920 --> 01:02:58,000
Speaker 2: No, you don't have to play it? Do you agree?

1303
01:02:58,720 --> 01:03:00,960
Speaker 1: Definitely? It's definitely the spot. It is definitely a spot.

1304
01:03:01,000 --> 01:03:02,720
Speaker 1: I'm just trying to I've been pretty good at coming

1305
01:03:02,760 --> 01:03:05,320
Speaker 1: in and digging through your trash and taking the one

1306
01:03:05,360 --> 01:03:07,000
Speaker 1: or two that I like and been paying off. So

1307
01:03:07,040 --> 01:03:08,680
Speaker 1: I'm trying to figure out which on year I'm gonna take.

1308
01:03:09,160 --> 01:03:13,440
Speaker 2: Okay, uh, here's when Colorado State catching over three touchdowns

1309
01:03:13,480 --> 01:03:16,400
Speaker 2: against air Force. Air Force always finds ways to cover

1310
01:03:16,440 --> 01:03:19,480
Speaker 2: against New Mexico. That's pretty much the only team that

1311
01:03:19,480 --> 01:03:21,960
Speaker 2: they consistently cover it's it's big favorites. This is a

1312
01:03:21,960 --> 01:03:25,040
Speaker 2: service academy laying a big number, always going to look

1313
01:03:25,040 --> 01:03:27,240
Speaker 2: to fat. There's limited possessions in the game. Since two

1314
01:03:27,240 --> 01:03:30,440
Speaker 2: thousand and five, Service academies are thirty seven, fifty seven

1315
01:03:30,480 --> 01:03:33,360
Speaker 2: and two when they're favored by more than two touchdowns,

1316
01:03:33,600 --> 01:03:38,280
Speaker 2: forty percent when favored by more than three. And I

1317
01:03:38,360 --> 01:03:42,040
Speaker 2: think Colorado State is undervalued in the market right now.

1318
01:03:42,600 --> 01:03:45,400
Speaker 2: Millen has claim On has come back their quarterback, their

1319
01:03:45,440 --> 01:03:48,320
Speaker 2: offense is figured out, which you would expect. You know,

1320
01:03:48,440 --> 01:03:50,240
Speaker 2: you have a new coach. Novell comes in and stalls

1321
01:03:50,280 --> 01:03:53,040
Speaker 2: an entirely new offense, which is a one to eighty

1322
01:03:53,120 --> 01:03:55,080
Speaker 2: of a difference from their offense Ave ran last year,

1323
01:03:55,320 --> 01:03:57,600
Speaker 2: so you would expect as the season goes on the

1324
01:03:57,680 --> 01:04:00,160
Speaker 2: offense would progress. They also had some backup quarterback, so

1325
01:04:00,160 --> 01:04:04,240
Speaker 2: we're just completely incompetent. But look over the past two games.

1326
01:04:04,280 --> 01:04:06,840
Speaker 2: They lost twenty eight sixteen to San Jose State. They

1327
01:04:06,840 --> 01:04:09,680
Speaker 2: outgained Santase State four hundred and sixty eight to three,

1328
01:04:09,760 --> 01:04:12,959
Speaker 2: fifty five yards per play six point seven to five

1329
01:04:13,000 --> 01:04:16,600
Speaker 2: point six in favor of Colorado State, and then they

1330
01:04:16,640 --> 01:04:21,160
Speaker 2: played Wyoming ninety percent postgame win expectancy out gain Wyoming

1331
01:04:21,240 --> 01:04:24,880
Speaker 2: three seventy two to two thirty six, six point three

1332
01:04:24,920 --> 01:04:27,560
Speaker 2: to four point five yards per play. This team's moving

1333
01:04:27,640 --> 01:04:29,080
Speaker 2: the ball, and how do you move and they want

1334
01:04:29,080 --> 01:04:30,760
Speaker 2: to throw it to a nar raid. How do you

1335
01:04:30,760 --> 01:04:33,520
Speaker 2: move the ball against air force? You have to attack

1336
01:04:33,560 --> 01:04:36,440
Speaker 2: their secondary Tory Horton is one of the best receivers

1337
01:04:36,440 --> 01:04:37,880
Speaker 2: at the group of five level. I think he'll have

1338
01:04:37,960 --> 01:04:41,240
Speaker 2: some exposive plays. But this Colorado State offense is trending

1339
01:04:41,240 --> 01:04:44,000
Speaker 2: in the right direction. They're playing hard. It's this is

1340
01:04:44,040 --> 01:04:44,760
Speaker 2: Colorado State.

1341
01:04:45,480 --> 01:04:47,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, this one, I'm going to pass on it. Twenty four.

1342
01:04:47,480 --> 01:04:50,400
Speaker 1: You'd have me buying. I think it's not rich enough

1343
01:04:50,440 --> 01:04:54,000
Speaker 1: for me yet. There are just numbers. I think everybody

1344
01:04:54,040 --> 01:04:55,920
Speaker 1: loves when I say it's serve as Academy trenches. I

1345
01:04:55,920 --> 01:04:57,320
Speaker 1: love to look at him. There's just not enough there

1346
01:04:57,360 --> 01:04:59,320
Speaker 1: in Colorado State for me to back it all.

1347
01:04:59,400 --> 01:05:02,360
Speaker 2: Right. Next, we're going to stay with another gross Colorado

1348
01:05:02,360 --> 01:05:05,160
Speaker 2: team on the road. We're gonna back Colorado the app

1349
01:05:05,240 --> 01:05:09,800
Speaker 2: the awful dumpster fire, the absolute bottom of the barrel

1350
01:05:10,400 --> 01:05:13,640
Speaker 2: in power five. I'll also tell you that, by the way,

1351
01:05:13,640 --> 01:05:16,240
Speaker 2: we didn't mention this earlier, Cincinnati Z to five against

1352
01:05:16,240 --> 01:05:18,440
Speaker 2: the spread on the road. I think you mentioned that.

1353
01:05:18,480 --> 01:05:21,840
Speaker 2: Actually Colorado also zone five. They're the two least profitable

1354
01:05:22,280 --> 01:05:26,200
Speaker 2: teams on the road in college football. It's also scary

1355
01:05:26,200 --> 01:05:28,160
Speaker 2: back in Colorado on the road since two thousand and five.

1356
01:05:28,200 --> 01:05:30,840
Speaker 2: This is stunning. Since two thousand and five, no team

1357
01:05:30,880 --> 01:05:33,000
Speaker 2: has been less profitable in the road than Colorado, who

1358
01:05:33,000 --> 01:05:36,880
Speaker 2: gets a huge altitude advantage at same thing in college basketball.

1359
01:05:36,880 --> 01:05:39,120
Speaker 2: By the way, if you look at their splits since

1360
01:05:39,120 --> 01:05:42,040
Speaker 2: two thousand and five, it's thirty one and sixty against

1361
01:05:42,040 --> 01:05:44,880
Speaker 2: the spread on the road thirty four percent, failing to

1362
01:05:44,920 --> 01:05:48,000
Speaker 2: cover by four points per game. That is insane. There

1363
01:05:48,000 --> 01:05:51,200
Speaker 2: are also one in six against the spread as an

1364
01:05:51,240 --> 01:05:53,560
Speaker 2: underdog of thirty plus points on the road over that span.

1365
01:05:53,760 --> 01:05:57,000
Speaker 2: But we're backing them just to complete hold your nose spot. Look,

1366
01:05:57,080 --> 01:06:01,320
Speaker 2: Washington just beat Oregon, massive win. They have Washington State

1367
01:06:01,400 --> 01:06:04,960
Speaker 2: and the Apple Cup on deck. Colorado has some semblance

1368
01:06:05,000 --> 01:06:07,800
Speaker 2: of a rushing attack, and Washington's defense is just so

1369
01:06:08,000 --> 01:06:10,479
Speaker 2: bad that I don't think that they should be laying

1370
01:06:10,600 --> 01:06:16,120
Speaker 2: thirty one in this spot with that defense. Colord is

1371
01:06:16,160 --> 01:06:18,760
Speaker 2: an extra day of preparation. I think that they can

1372
01:06:18,760 --> 01:06:20,400
Speaker 2: control the ball a little bit, They're not gonna get

1373
01:06:20,400 --> 01:06:23,120
Speaker 2: any stops, and Washington has it. I'll take the thirty one.

1374
01:06:23,680 --> 01:06:26,440
Speaker 2: I say that they cover, they lose game by twenty

1375
01:06:26,440 --> 01:06:33,440
Speaker 2: four to twenty seven. This classic sandwich spot sandwiches, sandwiches, sandwiches.

1376
01:06:33,480 --> 01:06:37,520
Speaker 1: And so the strangest location sandwiches I've ever seen. Well,

1377
01:06:37,600 --> 01:06:39,920
Speaker 1: Washington does give up a lot of pass explosiveness or

1378
01:06:39,920 --> 01:06:43,040
Speaker 1: outside the top one hundred defensive pass EPA sore that

1379
01:06:43,160 --> 01:06:44,960
Speaker 1: is a feather in the cap. But the problem that

1380
01:06:45,000 --> 01:06:48,080
Speaker 1: I have with this is that Washington is third nationally

1381
01:06:48,320 --> 01:06:53,000
Speaker 1: in finishing drives on offense and Colorado is dead last defensively.

1382
01:06:53,120 --> 01:06:56,200
Speaker 1: Now we also you were mentioning teams that haven't covered

1383
01:06:56,240 --> 01:06:58,960
Speaker 1: on the road at all. Colorado has gone over the

1384
01:06:59,000 --> 01:07:01,240
Speaker 1: total in every game on the road this season. That

1385
01:07:01,240 --> 01:07:03,120
Speaker 1: could be defensive or it could be that they're helping

1386
01:07:03,160 --> 01:07:06,000
Speaker 1: out on offense. The better play for me in this

1387
01:07:06,760 --> 01:07:08,919
Speaker 1: is taking the over. I don't see how Washington doesn't

1388
01:07:09,000 --> 01:07:10,760
Speaker 1: end with a touchdown on every single drive. And if

1389
01:07:10,760 --> 01:07:13,680
Speaker 1: Colorado successful on offense, which they should be looking at

1390
01:07:13,680 --> 01:07:16,520
Speaker 1: these numbers, Washington doesn't create havoc. They don't defend the

1391
01:07:16,560 --> 01:07:18,280
Speaker 1: pass they allow a lot of teams to get up

1392
01:07:18,280 --> 01:07:20,240
Speaker 1: and down the field. To me, it's more of an

1393
01:07:20,240 --> 01:07:23,800
Speaker 1: overplay than back in Colorado. But I'll have action on this,

1394
01:07:24,200 --> 01:07:24,560
Speaker 1: all right, and.

1395
01:07:24,520 --> 01:07:26,560
Speaker 2: Then we're gonna go Vandy. I'm gonna go back to

1396
01:07:26,640 --> 01:07:30,600
Speaker 2: Vandy catching two touchdowns at home against Florida. Not a

1397
01:07:30,600 --> 01:07:33,920
Speaker 2: great spot for Florida Vandy. You know they've clinched a

1398
01:07:33,960 --> 01:07:37,080
Speaker 2: bowl Florida. They have Florida State on DAK. Vanderbilt's run

1399
01:07:37,120 --> 01:07:39,120
Speaker 2: dy is much better than it's past. Ye secondary is

1400
01:07:39,160 --> 01:07:42,120
Speaker 2: really bad. That's good against Florida, one of the best

1401
01:07:42,200 --> 01:07:45,240
Speaker 2: rushing offenses in the country. On the other side of

1402
01:07:45,240 --> 01:07:47,560
Speaker 2: the ball, the Gators don't get much pressure, similar to Kentucky.

1403
01:07:47,920 --> 01:07:51,000
Speaker 2: That's what Mike Wright needs if he's gonna be starting again.

1404
01:07:51,480 --> 01:07:54,000
Speaker 2: He's actually pretty good when he's not under pressure. He's

1405
01:07:54,000 --> 01:07:56,640
Speaker 2: horrific when he is under pressure. But I just think

1406
01:07:56,680 --> 01:07:59,200
Speaker 2: this number is a bit too high for a Florida

1407
01:07:59,280 --> 01:08:02,040
Speaker 2: team that is for its last eight against the spread

1408
01:08:02,040 --> 01:08:05,920
Speaker 2: as a road favorite, failing to cover by fourteen points

1409
01:08:05,960 --> 01:08:10,000
Speaker 2: per game. They've lost four consecutive games on the road

1410
01:08:10,680 --> 01:08:14,800
Speaker 2: as a favorite. Outright, all is over a touchdown favor

1411
01:08:15,320 --> 01:08:17,799
Speaker 2: Vandy keeps this close. They're feisty, they're still fighting.

1412
01:08:18,400 --> 01:08:20,519
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like this one. I like Vandy. I'd rather

1413
01:08:20,560 --> 01:08:22,479
Speaker 1: have fourteen and a half rather than fourteen. There is

1414
01:08:22,520 --> 01:08:24,040
Speaker 1: a fourteen and a half out there on the board,

1415
01:08:24,080 --> 01:08:26,000
Speaker 1: so I might be scooping that now as we're doing

1416
01:08:26,000 --> 01:08:26,840
Speaker 1: this podcast, But.

1417
01:08:27,280 --> 01:08:30,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I have fourteen and a half as well. We'll

1418
01:08:30,080 --> 01:08:31,000
Speaker 2: play it down to fourteen.

1419
01:08:31,320 --> 01:08:33,840
Speaker 1: Yep. They're still fighting hard. And you know, Vanderbilt is

1420
01:08:33,920 --> 01:08:36,720
Speaker 1: just Clarkly. It's just a replication of Clarkly. They're not

1421
01:08:36,720 --> 01:08:38,280
Speaker 1: going to give up at at any time.

1422
01:08:39,240 --> 01:08:41,320
Speaker 2: We know that in time, Vannibile football will be the

1423
01:08:41,320 --> 01:08:43,479
Speaker 2: best program in the country.

1424
01:08:43,640 --> 01:08:46,080
Speaker 1: But Florida is one hundred and thirtieth and passing down

1425
01:08:46,120 --> 01:08:49,200
Speaker 1: success rate on defense. They allow everybody to convert a

1426
01:08:49,240 --> 01:08:52,599
Speaker 1: first down in long downs and distances. So yeah, I'm

1427
01:08:52,640 --> 01:08:52,960
Speaker 1: with you.

1428
01:08:53,280 --> 01:08:56,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like Dandy. Here trying to avenge you embarrassing

1429
01:08:56,320 --> 01:09:00,760
Speaker 2: forty two nothing loss to Florida last year. One last time,

1430
01:09:01,040 --> 01:09:03,479
Speaker 2: the final trash week, one last time. We're traveling the

1431
01:09:03,479 --> 01:09:04,080
Speaker 2: club lit.

1432
01:09:04,000 --> 01:09:07,760
Speaker 1: Baby, Oh wow, you gotta be shitting me.

1433
01:09:09,120 --> 01:09:14,799
Speaker 2: Regular season finale for Chris Reynolds, Victor Tucker, their defensive

1434
01:09:14,880 --> 01:09:18,080
Speaker 2: end Watts, who have been here with the program since

1435
01:09:18,120 --> 01:09:21,920
Speaker 2: twenty eighteen. This is their last game. It's Charlotte's last

1436
01:09:21,920 --> 01:09:23,920
Speaker 2: game of the season. They're trying to get their first

1437
01:09:23,920 --> 01:09:26,840
Speaker 2: home win of the season. I think they're gonna show

1438
01:09:26,920 --> 01:09:28,439
Speaker 2: up here. This is really important for a lot of

1439
01:09:28,439 --> 01:09:30,760
Speaker 2: these seniors who have been through ups and downs of

1440
01:09:30,800 --> 01:09:34,120
Speaker 2: this program. And I have seen the club burned down,

1441
01:09:34,160 --> 01:09:38,960
Speaker 2: get rebuilt and went through COVID and look, Charlotte's defense

1442
01:09:39,040 --> 01:09:42,000
Speaker 2: is horrendous, played a little better since they fired Will Healy.

1443
01:09:42,600 --> 01:09:45,280
Speaker 2: I actually have Louisiana Techs defense rated below. These are

1444
01:09:45,280 --> 01:09:50,040
Speaker 2: two bottom five defenses in the country. Who's the better offense,

1445
01:09:50,640 --> 01:09:53,200
Speaker 2: Charlotte because you know why. I mean, Charlotte has a

1446
01:09:53,200 --> 01:09:55,479
Speaker 2: pretty good offense. Regardless, louis gonna text start in their

1447
01:09:55,479 --> 01:09:58,599
Speaker 2: backup quarterback here and that is a massive drop off

1448
01:09:59,000 --> 01:10:02,479
Speaker 2: from Parker mcnehe to your boy Lyddy. And this is

1449
01:10:02,520 --> 01:10:05,559
Speaker 2: a bad spot for Louisiana Tech as well. Last week's

1450
01:10:05,600 --> 01:10:08,839
Speaker 2: loss took them out of Bowl eligibility. This game sandwich

1451
01:10:08,840 --> 01:10:11,519
Speaker 2: in between UTSA and UAB. They're going to lowly Charlotte

1452
01:10:11,520 --> 01:10:14,200
Speaker 2: in the afternoon. This is club. Let we are back.

1453
01:10:14,280 --> 01:10:18,320
Speaker 2: We are dancing one last time in the club Club

1454
01:10:18,720 --> 01:10:22,040
Speaker 2: lit Baby, by the way. Over the past two seasons,

1455
01:10:22,080 --> 01:10:24,200
Speaker 2: Louisiana Tech oh to four against the spread as a

1456
01:10:24,280 --> 01:10:27,040
Speaker 2: road favorite, feeling to cover by thirteen points per game.

1457
01:10:27,479 --> 01:10:30,280
Speaker 2: They lost them all out right against conference foes. I

1458
01:10:30,320 --> 01:10:32,080
Speaker 2: think Charlotte would a three point favorite here.

1459
01:10:32,800 --> 01:10:34,920
Speaker 1: Louisiana Techs covered just once on the road this year,

1460
01:10:34,960 --> 01:10:37,000
Speaker 1: And you're right, I'm looking at the numbers up against

1461
01:10:37,040 --> 01:10:41,160
Speaker 1: each other, and Charlotte's offense is light years beyond Louisiana

1462
01:10:41,200 --> 01:10:43,320
Speaker 1: Techs offense. And then when you look at the crossover,

1463
01:10:43,360 --> 01:10:45,040
Speaker 1: it's things like Charlotte too.

1464
01:10:45,080 --> 01:10:47,719
Speaker 2: Lidia is starting to liddy. Who lost that FIU out right?

1465
01:10:47,920 --> 01:10:50,720
Speaker 1: Yeah? Yeah, I mean Charlotte's top fifteen things like lineyards,

1466
01:10:50,760 --> 01:10:54,000
Speaker 1: rushing success, right, passing success. And you look at Louisiana's defense,

1467
01:10:54,520 --> 01:10:57,040
Speaker 1: which has the same strength of schedule as Charlotte the

1468
01:10:57,080 --> 01:11:00,680
Speaker 1: opponent adjusted strength of schedule, and like one hundred and

1469
01:11:00,680 --> 01:11:03,200
Speaker 1: thirteenth defensive in nine lineyards, they're one hundred and twenty

1470
01:11:03,240 --> 01:11:07,759
Speaker 1: eighth and tackling like just like five dudes. Yeah, it's terrible.

1471
01:11:07,800 --> 01:11:10,479
Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm with you. I'd throw some money on

1472
01:11:10,520 --> 01:11:11,040
Speaker 1: it right now.

1473
01:11:11,600 --> 01:11:13,920
Speaker 2: Club let everyone in the club. And by the way,

1474
01:11:13,920 --> 01:11:15,920
Speaker 2: shut should have won last week. They get up two

1475
01:11:15,960 --> 01:11:18,719
Speaker 2: non offensive touchdowns there especially stinks to got with special

1476
01:11:18,720 --> 01:11:21,960
Speaker 2: teams penalties. But uh, Victor Talker the receiver should be back.

1477
01:11:21,960 --> 01:11:25,640
Speaker 2: I assume he missed last game. One final order of business.

1478
01:11:26,080 --> 01:11:28,760
Speaker 2: Let's go three and out.

1479
01:11:27,640 --> 01:11:31,360
Speaker 1: Oh, let's make it a quick three and out.

1480
01:11:31,920 --> 01:11:34,080
Speaker 2: All right, let's start off with our favorite bet of

1481
01:11:34,120 --> 01:11:38,200
Speaker 2: the week. I will kick things off. Let's not rocket science, people,

1482
01:11:38,320 --> 01:11:40,960
Speaker 2: Let's we're going back to the well with Navy the troops.

1483
01:11:41,240 --> 01:11:43,800
Speaker 2: This at eleven am Eastern. Make sure you get this

1484
01:11:43,840 --> 01:11:45,640
Speaker 2: bet in and don't get caught at eleven thirty like

1485
01:11:45,680 --> 01:11:50,719
Speaker 2: I did before eleven am Eastern. Navy at UCF catching

1486
01:11:50,760 --> 01:11:54,360
Speaker 2: I think sixteen. Now like this down to fifteen, fifteen

1487
01:11:54,400 --> 01:11:57,479
Speaker 2: and a half. I did bad spot for UCF. They

1488
01:11:57,520 --> 01:11:58,840
Speaker 2: just need one more win. They're going to be in

1489
01:11:58,840 --> 01:12:00,640
Speaker 2: the conference title game. But they're just up back to

1490
01:12:00,720 --> 01:12:06,080
Speaker 2: back massive road wins which followed that Cincinnati game. And Navy,

1491
01:12:06,760 --> 01:12:09,080
Speaker 2: what do they do this year? Though they cover on

1492
01:12:09,120 --> 01:12:11,240
Speaker 2: the road, they're five to zero against the spread on

1493
01:12:11,280 --> 01:12:15,720
Speaker 2: the road, and they and they weren't against cupcakes by

1494
01:12:15,760 --> 01:12:18,759
Speaker 2: the way, they were against really good teams. They closed

1495
01:12:18,840 --> 01:12:22,120
Speaker 2: at least twelve and a half point underdogs in all

1496
01:12:22,160 --> 01:12:26,599
Speaker 2: five games away from home. They lost by three, three,

1497
01:12:27,080 --> 01:12:29,760
Speaker 2: one by three, lost by six, and lost by ten.

1498
01:12:30,080 --> 01:12:32,320
Speaker 2: They've been in every single game. This team will fight

1499
01:12:32,400 --> 01:12:35,560
Speaker 2: until the end to service academy, catching over two touchdowns

1500
01:12:35,560 --> 01:12:37,519
Speaker 2: forty one to twenty two and two against the spread

1501
01:12:37,560 --> 01:12:40,160
Speaker 2: sixty five percent since two thousand and five, covered by

1502
01:12:40,160 --> 01:12:43,160
Speaker 2: five points per game limited possessions. You also might get

1503
01:12:43,200 --> 01:12:46,640
Speaker 2: their third string quarterback here, Thesi Maynor. He actually has

1504
01:12:46,680 --> 01:12:49,639
Speaker 2: a pretty good arm, which is how you can attack UCF.

1505
01:12:49,840 --> 01:12:50,960
Speaker 2: So I think they might be able to hit some

1506
01:12:51,000 --> 01:12:55,360
Speaker 2: explosive passing plays. And how do you slow down UCF?

1507
01:12:55,640 --> 01:12:57,960
Speaker 2: You correctly had a handicap last week. The two lanes

1508
01:12:58,000 --> 01:13:00,479
Speaker 2: run dye was vulnerable. No one is round on Navy

1509
01:13:00,520 --> 01:13:03,960
Speaker 2: all year. Top ten yards per rush line yards, top

1510
01:13:04,000 --> 01:13:06,519
Speaker 2: twenty five opportunity right, top ten power success rate, stuff

1511
01:13:06,600 --> 01:13:08,519
Speaker 2: right eight the ap for rush rust success rate. This

1512
01:13:08,680 --> 01:13:10,880
Speaker 2: run dye is real, and that is how you slow

1513
01:13:10,960 --> 01:13:14,000
Speaker 2: down a UCF run heavy team. Plumbly running it that

1514
01:13:14,080 --> 01:13:17,400
Speaker 2: sets up the pass. The Navy secondary is awful, but

1515
01:13:17,600 --> 01:13:20,479
Speaker 2: just like Notre Dame, I don't think UCF is really

1516
01:13:20,560 --> 01:13:24,240
Speaker 2: gonna fully exploit those weaknesses all game. Navy stays within

1517
01:13:24,240 --> 01:13:26,680
Speaker 2: this number, Navy pulls off the out right upset the

1518
01:13:26,720 --> 01:13:27,320
Speaker 2: Troops at.

1519
01:13:27,200 --> 01:13:43,800
Speaker 1: Eleven a m. Yeah, I'm gonna go with Baylor plus

1520
01:13:43,800 --> 01:13:45,880
Speaker 1: two and a half, probably the best spot on the

1521
01:13:45,960 --> 01:13:48,960
Speaker 1: board that's going up against TCU the week after they

1522
01:13:49,000 --> 01:13:52,480
Speaker 1: go down to Austin lock up a big twelve championship

1523
01:13:52,479 --> 01:13:55,559
Speaker 1: game spot. Not only that that, it's a bunch of

1524
01:13:55,600 --> 01:13:58,320
Speaker 1: recruits and a bunch of players on TCU's roster that

1525
01:13:58,400 --> 01:14:01,479
Speaker 1: didn't get recruited or got shunned by Texas and are

1526
01:14:01,520 --> 01:14:03,479
Speaker 1: not Longhorns right now, every kid in the state of

1527
01:14:03,520 --> 01:14:05,960
Speaker 1: Texas usually wants to play for Texas, and it was

1528
01:14:06,000 --> 01:14:08,120
Speaker 1: a big win for them, not to mention, they beat

1529
01:14:08,120 --> 01:14:11,479
Speaker 1: their old coach, the coach that recruited them to Fort Worth.

1530
01:14:11,560 --> 01:14:14,679
Speaker 1: So it's a big leatdown spot and Sunny Dyke's mentioned

1531
01:14:14,720 --> 01:14:18,120
Speaker 1: in his presser this week, we've played a serious number

1532
01:14:18,160 --> 01:14:22,120
Speaker 1: of games in a row and at some point it's

1533
01:14:22,160 --> 01:14:24,040
Speaker 1: going to take its toll. So when you look at

1534
01:14:24,120 --> 01:14:26,000
Speaker 1: David Randa, he has been great off of a loss.

1535
01:14:26,000 --> 01:14:28,120
Speaker 1: Baylor coming off of a loss here Dave Randa has

1536
01:14:28,120 --> 01:14:31,360
Speaker 1: formed won against spread after getting his team to respond

1537
01:14:31,400 --> 01:14:34,040
Speaker 1: after they take a loss and the Bears rush explosiveness

1538
01:14:34,040 --> 01:14:36,360
Speaker 1: of what really makes it here from a technical standpoint,

1539
01:14:36,520 --> 01:14:38,880
Speaker 1: true freshman Richard Reese is one of the most explosive

1540
01:14:38,920 --> 01:14:41,400
Speaker 1: backs and all of the Big twelve. He has thirteen

1541
01:14:41,439 --> 01:14:44,080
Speaker 1: tds on the season, and that has just been an

1542
01:14:44,080 --> 01:14:46,840
Speaker 1: issue all year for TCU on the defensive side, is

1543
01:14:46,880 --> 01:14:50,280
Speaker 1: allowing ground explosiveness. Then finally, Blake Shapin, He's not going

1544
01:14:50,320 --> 01:14:52,040
Speaker 1: to have a problem with this three three five stack

1545
01:14:52,080 --> 01:14:55,040
Speaker 1: that Joe Gillespie calls he saw before with Iowa State.

1546
01:14:55,120 --> 01:14:57,800
Speaker 1: He had three touchdowns that day and no interceptions. Look

1547
01:14:57,840 --> 01:14:59,760
Speaker 1: for Blake shape and to rebound. Have a good day

1548
01:14:59,760 --> 01:15:03,200
Speaker 1: here and for TCU probably in the toughest spot they've

1549
01:15:03,240 --> 01:15:05,120
Speaker 1: had all season here playing against Baylor.

1550
01:15:05,800 --> 01:15:08,840
Speaker 2: Let's move on to second down. Our favorite overdog for

1551
01:15:08,880 --> 01:15:11,360
Speaker 2: those new Yeah, that's our favorite favorite. I'll kick things

1552
01:15:11,400 --> 01:15:13,160
Speaker 2: off of them to catch the falling knife the team

1553
01:15:13,160 --> 01:15:15,960
Speaker 2: I've been fading with. The cows come home, Jimbo Fisher.

1554
01:15:16,560 --> 01:15:18,519
Speaker 2: I just saw the cows in my backyard. Maybe it

1555
01:15:18,560 --> 01:15:21,240
Speaker 2: was my pitbull, but I think it was the cows.

1556
01:15:21,760 --> 01:15:25,479
Speaker 2: I'm laying thirty three with Texas A and M against

1557
01:15:25,640 --> 01:15:28,960
Speaker 2: UMass MSS. Third straight road game for what it's worth,

1558
01:15:29,000 --> 01:15:30,679
Speaker 2: By the way, since two thousand and five non conference

1559
01:15:30,760 --> 01:15:33,880
Speaker 2: dogs of three touchdowns or more on the inner third

1560
01:15:33,880 --> 01:15:36,360
Speaker 2: straight road game twenty three thirty eight against the spread

1561
01:15:36,400 --> 01:15:39,000
Speaker 2: thirty seven percent teams. These teams that are in the

1562
01:15:39,040 --> 01:15:42,280
Speaker 2: spot usually very bad, not a lot of depth, tough

1563
01:15:42,280 --> 01:15:45,000
Speaker 2: spot for UMSS, and I just think now it all

1564
01:15:45,000 --> 01:15:47,760
Speaker 2: depends if TEXTA, A and M decides to show off

1565
01:15:47,760 --> 01:15:50,320
Speaker 2: and they might get attunated back, they might get their

1566
01:15:50,760 --> 01:15:52,720
Speaker 2: the receiver should be back and get suspended for like

1567
01:15:53,479 --> 01:15:56,080
Speaker 2: having the wrong sleeve on last week. Should be a

1568
01:15:56,120 --> 01:15:59,080
Speaker 2: little healthier. They're getting over a flu balt But this number,

1569
01:15:59,080 --> 01:16:01,760
Speaker 2: I think should be closer to UMSS is just gonna

1570
01:16:01,760 --> 01:16:05,600
Speaker 2: be severely overmatched from a talent gap perspective. I just

1571
01:16:05,640 --> 01:16:07,479
Speaker 2: think that this is the game where text A and M.

1572
01:16:07,720 --> 01:16:10,720
Speaker 2: I've just been hearing shit all year long that they're

1573
01:16:10,760 --> 01:16:13,480
Speaker 2: gonna want to go out and take out their frustrations

1574
01:16:13,880 --> 01:16:16,479
Speaker 2: on one of the worst teams, if not the worst

1575
01:16:16,479 --> 01:16:19,439
Speaker 2: in the country. Text AEM will get out in the

1576
01:16:19,439 --> 01:16:23,679
Speaker 2: field care and blow U MASS out of the water.

1577
01:16:23,880 --> 01:16:27,120
Speaker 2: If they do, you shouldn't score and Texam should at

1578
01:16:27,160 --> 01:16:30,880
Speaker 2: least get to like forty five. So give me tex Am.

1579
01:16:30,960 --> 01:16:33,120
Speaker 2: If they don't care and they come out flat, this

1580
01:16:33,200 --> 01:16:37,320
Speaker 2: will look horrific. But I'm counting on catching the falling

1581
01:16:37,400 --> 01:16:37,800
Speaker 2: night here.

1582
01:16:38,920 --> 01:16:41,519
Speaker 1: I'm waiting on that Jimbo victory lap after he beats

1583
01:16:42,240 --> 01:16:45,720
Speaker 1: UMass by sixty. I'm gonna go with UNLV is my

1584
01:16:45,800 --> 01:16:49,559
Speaker 1: favorite overdog here. It's a must win for UNLV fighting

1585
01:16:49,600 --> 01:16:51,240
Speaker 1: to gain. They've got four wins right now. They need

1586
01:16:51,240 --> 01:16:53,160
Speaker 1: to get to bowl season. And yeah they're favored by

1587
01:16:53,520 --> 01:16:56,000
Speaker 1: you know, double digits here. But the return of Doug

1588
01:16:56,040 --> 01:16:59,960
Speaker 1: Brumfeld has produced three straight covers against Fresno, San Diego State,

1589
01:17:00,400 --> 01:17:02,799
Speaker 1: and Notre Dame. I mean, these are top quality teams

1590
01:17:02,800 --> 01:17:05,080
Speaker 1: for what they have on their schedule, and Aiden Robins

1591
01:17:05,280 --> 01:17:07,320
Speaker 1: at Robins at running back has just been an animal.

1592
01:17:07,360 --> 01:17:09,680
Speaker 1: Two hundred and fifty rushing yards the last two I

1593
01:17:09,680 --> 01:17:12,559
Speaker 1: guess the San Diego State defense and Fresno he's averaged

1594
01:17:12,600 --> 01:17:15,599
Speaker 1: four yards after carry. He is fresh and just banging

1595
01:17:15,680 --> 01:17:19,880
Speaker 1: in the trench. Hawaii has been It's getting worse for

1596
01:17:19,920 --> 01:17:22,439
Speaker 1: Tivvy Chang one hundred and twenty eighth strength of schedule

1597
01:17:22,520 --> 01:17:25,240
Speaker 1: with poor ranks on rush defense one hundred and twenty

1598
01:17:25,240 --> 01:17:27,320
Speaker 1: fifth in line yards one hundred and tenth and stuff. Right,

1599
01:17:27,360 --> 01:17:30,000
Speaker 1: what does that mean? Why he's not plugging holes, they're

1600
01:17:30,000 --> 01:17:32,479
Speaker 1: not keeping contained and they're allowing teams to run all

1601
01:17:32,520 --> 01:17:32,880
Speaker 1: over them.

1602
01:17:33,120 --> 01:17:35,280
Speaker 2: I think you got forty five to New Mexico State.

1603
01:17:35,640 --> 01:17:38,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's hard to do. That's really hard. I think

1604
01:17:38,080 --> 01:17:39,479
Speaker 1: would you and I have a forty five in New

1605
01:17:39,520 --> 01:17:42,280
Speaker 1: Mexico State? But yeah, I mean the Warriors are not

1606
01:17:42,360 --> 01:17:45,040
Speaker 1: generating any pass rush right now. They're a bottom fifteen

1607
01:17:45,080 --> 01:17:47,439
Speaker 1: coverage unit. When Doug Brumfield does decide that he wants

1608
01:17:47,479 --> 01:17:49,360
Speaker 1: to take to the air. And also there's just a

1609
01:17:49,439 --> 01:17:52,240
Speaker 1: huge tackling discrepancy here. You know, he has much better

1610
01:17:52,240 --> 01:17:55,000
Speaker 1: fundamentals when it comes to that. And you can't trust

1611
01:17:55,040 --> 01:17:59,599
Speaker 1: Hawaii seventeen fumbles on the season. It's tough. Braden Shaker

1612
01:17:59,640 --> 01:18:01,960
Speaker 1: has been really tough with the ball at quarterback for

1613
01:18:01,960 --> 01:18:05,880
Speaker 1: Hawaii nine turnover worthy plays and his past four games.

1614
01:18:06,360 --> 01:18:08,120
Speaker 1: Let's take UNLV to cover a big number.

1615
01:18:08,760 --> 01:18:10,559
Speaker 2: I like this one. You're gonna get this one. I'll

1616
01:18:10,560 --> 01:18:14,320
Speaker 2: probably join you, all Right's go on to our final

1617
01:18:14,439 --> 01:18:19,280
Speaker 2: order of business and that is third down, our favorite

1618
01:18:19,320 --> 01:18:27,320
Speaker 2: money line underdog, turning good weekends into great weekends. It's

1619
01:18:27,400 --> 01:18:31,680
Speaker 2: time for the money line parlay. I'll kick things off.

1620
01:18:31,720 --> 01:18:33,719
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with UCLA. I think they're a better team.

1621
01:18:34,240 --> 01:18:38,200
Speaker 2: I think their rush offense should absolutely dominate. They should

1622
01:18:38,200 --> 01:18:40,280
Speaker 2: stay ahead of the chains all game long. Hit a

1623
01:18:40,280 --> 01:18:42,960
Speaker 2: bunch of explosive plays, and I think that they'll just

1624
01:18:43,040 --> 01:18:46,800
Speaker 2: create enough negative plays on the defensive side of the

1625
01:18:46,800 --> 01:18:51,040
Speaker 2: ball to get a few stops potential looming turnover regression

1626
01:18:51,439 --> 01:18:54,920
Speaker 2: for USC. And I think UCLA gets this win. I

1627
01:18:54,960 --> 01:18:57,040
Speaker 2: think we're getting some value after their loss last week.

1628
01:18:57,160 --> 01:19:01,000
Speaker 2: I think they're the better team. USC's defense gets exposed. Here,

1629
01:19:01,280 --> 01:19:03,599
Speaker 2: should be a shootout, but I think he's UCLA pulls

1630
01:19:03,640 --> 01:19:06,240
Speaker 2: it out. Give me the Bruins where you're going.

1631
01:19:06,520 --> 01:19:08,280
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with my Arkansas Razorbacks.

1632
01:19:08,320 --> 01:19:09,840
Speaker 2: Woo Yeah, Nig.

1633
01:19:10,080 --> 01:19:14,880
Speaker 1: Sue Woo, Pig sueye at home against Old Miss and

1634
01:19:14,960 --> 01:19:18,200
Speaker 1: Donald W. Reynolds Razorbacks Stadium, a place where Old Miss

1635
01:19:18,200 --> 01:19:21,800
Speaker 1: has gone to lose for two decades now. Doesn't matter

1636
01:19:21,800 --> 01:19:23,519
Speaker 1: if it's Hugh Freeze or Houston. There's a lot of

1637
01:19:23,520 --> 01:19:26,240
Speaker 1: losses for the rebels going on here. kJ Jefferson is

1638
01:19:26,240 --> 01:19:28,519
Speaker 1: coming back to play. I doubt he's gonna throw much.

1639
01:19:28,880 --> 01:19:31,080
Speaker 1: It's got a separated shoulder, which is the rumor out

1640
01:19:31,120 --> 01:19:32,800
Speaker 1: on the streets, which means he is just going to

1641
01:19:32,840 --> 01:19:35,360
Speaker 1: be in there to take hits on his body and

1642
01:19:35,479 --> 01:19:38,120
Speaker 1: run the ball and hand it off. Rahem Sanders, I

1643
01:19:38,160 --> 01:19:40,639
Speaker 1: love Arkansas on this spot. It's going to be cold.

1644
01:19:40,920 --> 01:19:43,240
Speaker 1: I'm going to see how Lane Kiffin feels about his

1645
01:19:43,360 --> 01:19:46,439
Speaker 1: enthusiasm in this game after losing to Alabama. Hogs are

1646
01:19:46,479 --> 01:19:47,920
Speaker 1: gonna get bull eligible in this game.

1647
01:19:48,520 --> 01:19:52,000
Speaker 2: Perfect love it. Let's go Hoggs. That'll do it for us.

1648
01:19:52,400 --> 01:19:54,920
Speaker 2: Thanks as always to all of you for listening and

1649
01:19:54,960 --> 01:19:58,320
Speaker 2: supporting the podcast. Thanks as always to Colin for joining

1650
01:19:58,400 --> 01:20:01,120
Speaker 2: me in to our audio and video teams on the

1651
01:20:01,160 --> 01:20:04,280
Speaker 2: back end, especially producer Matt Mitchell. Make sure you subscribe

1652
01:20:04,320 --> 01:20:07,400
Speaker 2: on Subscribe, Subscribe, tell a friend, tell an enemy, leave

1653
01:20:07,439 --> 01:20:09,479
Speaker 2: a review. They help us a ton five star review.

1654
01:20:09,560 --> 01:20:11,800
Speaker 2: You can even say bad things about us, and make

1655
01:20:11,800 --> 01:20:13,719
Speaker 2: sure you call the VOICEMAI nine to five nine Bad Beat,

1656
01:20:14,280 --> 01:20:16,080
Speaker 2: Best call of the week. It's cash prize for me.

1657
01:20:16,960 --> 01:20:19,640
Speaker 2: Announce those on the recap pot on Monday. We'll be

1658
01:20:19,680 --> 01:20:23,960
Speaker 2: back Saturday morning, Big Bets on Campus Live ten thirty

1659
01:20:24,000 --> 01:20:26,719
Speaker 2: am Eastern. We'll go through our favorite bets and cover

1660
01:20:27,760 --> 01:20:31,200
Speaker 2: update information on the college football slate. Make sure you

1661
01:20:31,280 --> 01:20:34,200
Speaker 2: tune in there. We'll tweet out the links Big Bets

1662
01:20:34,240 --> 01:20:37,000
Speaker 2: on Campus wherever you listen to podcasts. Appreciate all of

1663
01:20:37,040 --> 01:20:40,680
Speaker 2: your support. Let's have another big weekend. Only so many

1664
01:20:40,720 --> 01:20:43,559
Speaker 2: of these Saturdays left. Cherish them. Let's keep it rolling.

1665
01:20:44,120 --> 01:20:51,599
Speaker 2: Get you all later, Cheers, peace out,