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Speaker 1: Welcome into Northside Territory. Foul Territory Networks Cubs Podcast. I'm

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Speaker 1: Sahadev Sharma with my partner Patrick Mooney. We are your

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Speaker 1: Cubs beat writers over at the Athletic and Patrick Tatsuya

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Speaker 1: and my has signed with the Houston Astros. The Cubs

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Speaker 1: start the new year with some disappointment for Cubs fans.

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Speaker 1: This was a twenty seven year old Japanese star really

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Speaker 1: dominated the past couple of years in the MPB. But

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Speaker 1: everything we got from this, you know, this is a

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Speaker 1: disappointment for fans.

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Speaker 2: Clearly.

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Speaker 1: I saw the reaction on social media. People were upset

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Speaker 1: about it and didn't understand it. I gotta say it basically,

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Speaker 1: since the offseason started and started talking to people around

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Speaker 1: the game, nobody was in love with this guy, and

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Speaker 1: I think the contract that we saw kind of represents that,

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Speaker 1: saying that people weren't interested, or that the Cubs weren't interested.

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Speaker 1: I just didn't get a set that this is a

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Speaker 1: guy that they had to get. That wasn't the feeling

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Speaker 1: I got when talking to people both within the organization

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Speaker 1: and outside.

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Speaker 3: Yes, that is why I'm hesitant to say new year,

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Speaker 3: same old Cubs. But it was kind of a jarring

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Speaker 3: way to start the year if you're a Cubs fan.

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Speaker 3: I don't think this was the player to sort of

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Speaker 3: like make any sweeping statements about the off season, but

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Speaker 3: it does sort of fit into a larger pattern here

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Speaker 3: of the Cubs have their valuations, they want good deals,

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Speaker 3: they want surplus value. They're not all that eager to

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Speaker 3: sort of bend and make certain compromises. We'll learn more

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Speaker 3: as the off season unfolds. I don't think this was

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Speaker 3: the guy they were obsessed over. This wasn't like when

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Speaker 3: Masahiro Tanaka came over a long time ago, but this

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Speaker 3: was sort of the scenario in which you could see

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Speaker 3: him falling to the Cubs of his markets sort of softening,

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Speaker 3: and then making a compelling offer and a good platform

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Speaker 3: for him to transition to Major League Baseball. Obviously, that

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Speaker 3: did not happen.

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Speaker 2: I'm curious.

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Speaker 3: I believe they'll be like a press conference maybe Monday

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Speaker 3: in Houston. I'm curious to hear. I know that Imai

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Speaker 3: had played with Kakuchi over in Japan, and that Kuchi

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Speaker 3: also represented by Scott Boris, and that a lot of

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Speaker 3: kind of what Emi did in MPB was sort of

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Speaker 3: patterned off Kakuchi in terms of like pitch mix, workload

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Speaker 3: preparation routine. And Kuchi was awesome for the Astros after

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Speaker 3: he got traded from Toronto, and he parlayed that into

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Speaker 3: a nice deal with the Angels. So you're talking about,

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Speaker 3: you know, is that maybe AMI's ceiling or floor just

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Speaker 3: as a really quality major league starter for years upon years,

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Speaker 3: we'll see. I think clearly the baseball industry said, we

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Speaker 3: don't value him as a front line, line starter right now,

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Speaker 3: and he's betting on himself to see if he can

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Speaker 3: have a great year in Houston and then cash in

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Speaker 3: either before the CBA expires or under a new economic

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Speaker 3: landscape whenever the next labor deal is finalized.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean this, this current deal without I mean

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Speaker 1: even without the opt outs and the escalators potential escalators,

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Speaker 1: it's like eighteen million a year. That's what jameson tyone

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Speaker 1: got three years ago. Yeah, you know, so this is

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Speaker 1: like he got he got four at eighteen per if

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Speaker 1: I'm remembering off the top of my head correctly, I

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Speaker 1: believe that's what tyone got. So, you know, like a

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Speaker 1: mid rotation starter, but he's getting opt outs and some

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Speaker 1: escalators some weird escalators that get like I think trigger

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Speaker 1: at like eighty ninety one hundred innings if I remember

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Speaker 1: going off the top of my head. So that's you know,

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Speaker 1: like he should be able to get that, assuming he's

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Speaker 1: healthy and is a starter.

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Speaker 2: It's an interesting deal.

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Speaker 1: It's one that I think, you know, if the Cubs

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Speaker 1: would assigned you said, this is really interesting. This is

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Speaker 1: you know, this is a type of like you said,

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Speaker 1: it's the type of deal that I thought that they

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Speaker 1: would have been happy to sign.

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Speaker 2: I think it's the opt outs.

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Speaker 1: That probably make it a little questionable for them because

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Speaker 1: if he's staying on that deal, what type of first

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Speaker 1: year did he have? It's risk that maybe they see

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Speaker 1: other options out there that they like, would rather take,

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Speaker 1: you know, spend that money elsewhere and put that risk

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Speaker 1: in a different spot.

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Speaker 2: It's it still has to you know, I think.

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Speaker 1: So let's get back Like for me, I go back

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Speaker 1: to what we've been saying for two months now. I've

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Speaker 1: been hearing questions about his viability as far as his fastball,

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Speaker 1: what type of breaking ball does he actually have? How

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Speaker 1: does that all translate to the big leagues? And I

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Speaker 1: think those are legitimate questions and you bring up Kokuchi,

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Speaker 1: who wasn't like a stuffed monster in either here or

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Speaker 1: in NPB, never dominated, but always a quality starter. And

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Speaker 1: I guess you just have to say, like, what is

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Speaker 1: the valuation of a picture like that? But is that

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Speaker 1: his ceiling? Is that his floor? Those are the types

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Speaker 1: of questions I have. I mean, am I has in

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Speaker 1: theory velocity is better than Kakuchi? You know, so better

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Speaker 1: stuff in that fashion? But does the stuff play up?

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Speaker 1: Is the fastball the type that can actually miss bats?

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Speaker 1: Those are the questions that that people seem to have.

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Speaker 1: And I think it was a like not love type

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Speaker 1: situation for a lot of teams. Obviously this was I

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Speaker 1: mean it seems like teams. There were a lot of

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Speaker 1: teams that people expected to be in the thick of

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Speaker 1: it that were weren't that interested. I just think in

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Speaker 1: the end, the public evaluation, like the outside evaluation, turned

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Speaker 1: out to be much bigger than what was actually going

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Speaker 1: on within organizations.

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Speaker 2: This could also be we're getting more.

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Speaker 1: Data now, you know when it comes to MPB players

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Speaker 1: that they have much more information. They're doing a lot

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Speaker 1: more scouting around the league. Teams are getting much more

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Speaker 1: information on these players and clearly they're just weren't in

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Speaker 1: love with am I. This was not a Yamamoto situation,

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Speaker 1: and I think Yamamoto has proven that, oh, Okay, this

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Speaker 1: guy's worth what he was paid, the crazy amount of

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Speaker 1: money he was paid, and I guess it's kind of

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Speaker 1: like a wait and see.

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Speaker 2: With my I am you know.

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Speaker 1: I think in the end, I think I understand why

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Speaker 1: fans are feeling a level of frustration. I do think

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Speaker 1: it's important to know that they this wasn't a situation

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Speaker 1: where the Cubs were completely like outbid or really wanted

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Speaker 1: the guy and just couldn't get it done. But I

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Speaker 1: think it's fair to question like the way the Cubs

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Speaker 1: behave because ultimately what they do is they're they're always

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Speaker 1: looking for that deal, and that has to be frustrating

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Speaker 1: the fans because at a certain point you.

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Speaker 2: Want to see them extend themselves.

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Speaker 1: I guess they did that with in the in the

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Speaker 1: sense that they did that with Kyle Tucker, right, They

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Speaker 1: they went into a comfortable place to do that. I

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Speaker 1: think fans want to see it more often because how

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Speaker 1: else are you supposed to improve your team If you're

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Speaker 1: constantly sticking within this you have to get surplus value.

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Speaker 1: You have to stick to the model type behavior. It

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Speaker 1: can lead to what's the famous Andrew Freeman quote, like

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Speaker 1: basically like you'll you'll always end up their place for

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Speaker 1: a guy, right, So yeah, if.

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Speaker 3: You're always rational, Yeah, yeah about free agency always finished

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Speaker 3: in third place or something.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think that ultimately that's where fans are

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Speaker 1: are left. I know, I got I got a lot

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Speaker 1: of messages from fans like tech like buddies, like what

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Speaker 1: are the Cubs doing? Why? Like why do they always

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Speaker 1: disappoint in free agency? And I think it's I understand

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Speaker 1: the feeling. Like it again, the Cubs weren't in love

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Speaker 1: with this guy, but I cannot deny that, like fans

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Speaker 1: have a right to feel a certain way about this

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Speaker 1: because it seems it is a trend with them.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and I mean, mis twenty seven years old. So

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Speaker 3: he checks the box for age. He throws in the

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Speaker 3: upper nineties. You know, has like a velocity component as

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Speaker 3: well as that sort of like starter kit to be

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Speaker 3: a major league starter given his long track record of

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Speaker 3: pitchability in NPB, and the Cubs just aren't exactly teeming

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Speaker 3: with like prime age young starter who could be had

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Speaker 3: for a significant amount of time. And you see tie

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Speaker 3: On Boyd showed a all potentially all potential free agents

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Speaker 3: after the twenty twenty six season. Justin Steele is under

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Speaker 3: club control for multiple seasons, but he's obviously coming off

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Speaker 3: a second major surgery in his career. Kate Harton was awesome,

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Speaker 3: but you know, he hasn't he doesn't have the track

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Speaker 3: record of you know, he's just young in his career.

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Speaker 3: There's a lot of unknowns there. He could get way better.

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Speaker 3: I mean, he could become that ace and the pitching

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Speaker 3: ken still sort itself out. But you look at it

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Speaker 3: comes like Dylan Ceas because of that swing and miss

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Speaker 3: stuff the upside, get him into your pitching infrastructure. See

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Speaker 3: what happens. And then as the bidding got went past

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Speaker 3: two hundred million dollars of clubs were good with that.

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Speaker 3: And I think you can understand, like, you know, Dylan

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Speaker 3: Ceese did not exactly have like John Lester's resume when

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Speaker 3: he hit free agency. He didn't even have a really

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Speaker 3: good season in his walk year. And then it's like, Okay,

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Speaker 3: Michael King's interesting too, you know, for all these reasons,

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Speaker 3: and what if we got him at Wrigley Field and

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Speaker 3: what could be done there, and well he got the

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Speaker 3: opt out as well after year one, and you can say, well,

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Speaker 3: he has what one full good season as a major

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Speaker 3: league starter essentially. Okay, maybe you don't want to go

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Speaker 3: on on that, and then it's my the you know,

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Speaker 3: questions that we've spent this episode sort of outlining. Okay,

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Speaker 3: so I think in isolation, all of this makes sense,

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Speaker 3: but when you start to add it up, you know,

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Speaker 3: the onus is going to be on the front office,

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Speaker 3: on ownership, on the business side to make that big move,

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Speaker 3: and there are still lots of interesting free agents out there,

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Speaker 3: both on the hitting side and the pitching side. The

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Speaker 3: trade market has not really heat it up. Outside of

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Speaker 3: that Kyle Tucker trade. The Cubs have not really used

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Speaker 3: their prospect capital in a significant way. Maybe I'm missing

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Speaker 3: another deal off the top of my head, but they've

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Speaker 3: been pretty conservative in that regard as well, So there

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Speaker 3: will be a pivot here. Maybe it is Zach Gallon,

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Speaker 3: who's also represented by Scott Boris and has been repeatedly

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Speaker 3: linked to the Cubs throughout this off season. But in

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Speaker 3: the moment, yeah, I think the frustration is totally understandable,

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Speaker 3: and I was walking past Wrigley Field the other day

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Speaker 3: and the you know, the DraftKings sports bar looked pretty

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Speaker 3: packed for the Rose Bowl. I did not go in,

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Speaker 3: so I did not see the full scope of it,

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Speaker 3: but it looked like a pretty lively business going on.

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Speaker 3: And when you just kind of see the neighborhood, you

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Speaker 3: you know, the passion of this fan base, you see

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Speaker 3: how other big market teams operate. It's just hard to

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Speaker 3: separate sometimes how much of this is a baseball component, Yes,

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Speaker 3: for sure, like this is a pretty extremely rational, conservative

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Speaker 3: front office. But then there's also the business side of

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Speaker 3: this organization that you know, simply does not extend the

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Speaker 3: way certain peer markets peer big market franchises do.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and ultimately that's where that's where fans are going

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Speaker 1: to get stuck on, Like they won't get past that idea,

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Speaker 1: you know, that that concept, the fact that they just

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Speaker 1: don't behave in a manner that fans would like them to.

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Speaker 1: It's it's something that we talk about semi frequently but

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Speaker 1: also have to kind of put to the side at

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Speaker 1: times because it's like, how are we supposed to analyze

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Speaker 1: this team and constantly bring that up, Like at a

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Speaker 1: certain point we have to just kind of move on

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Speaker 1: and say, like this is.

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Speaker 2: How they behave Now let's analyze how.

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Speaker 1: Do they get better? And I think that's that's kind

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Speaker 1: of how where we have to go. You have to say,

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Speaker 1: like what are the steps to get better? Okay, there's

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Speaker 1: a lot left in free agency, there are options on

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Speaker 1: the trade market.

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Speaker 2: What can they do? What will they do? And come

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Speaker 2: what is it.

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Speaker 1: February eleventh or twelfth, whenever they report for pitchers and catchers?

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Speaker 1: You know, what will this team look like? And maybe

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Speaker 1: even after that, what will they look like? Because are

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Speaker 1: we heading to another spring training where we're talking about

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Speaker 1: some player or somebody that's lingering on the market that

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Speaker 1: the Cubs are interested in, because that seems to happen

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Speaker 1: every year, and the Cubs are one of those teams

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Speaker 1: that are that are going to kind of sit there

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Speaker 1: and like try and pounce on the you know the

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Speaker 1: guy that is lingering because he's he's now his value

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Speaker 1: is as far as what they may get him at,

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Speaker 1: Like that's how you get surplus value. There are quite

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Speaker 1: a few players like that right now. There are a

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Speaker 1: lot of players out on the market. There's a really

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Speaker 1: it's you look at the top free agents. You know,

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Speaker 1: if you if you that started the off season to now,

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Speaker 1: what is it like, maybe six of ten, six of

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Speaker 1: twelve are still available.

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Speaker 3: I think it was on the Athletic Big Board, six

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Speaker 3: of the top nine are una signed.

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Speaker 2: Okay.

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Speaker 3: I think my I believe was ten.

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Speaker 2: Okay, So I mean you're talking about some really high end.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you're a luster of premium talent still out there,

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Speaker 3: and I think that's what will open into in our

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Speaker 3: next episode. But it felt relevant to give everyone sort

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Speaker 3: of an an Ami explainer here and stress yeah, like

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Speaker 3: obviously the off season isn't over yet, Like this is

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Speaker 3: not a you know, uh, it's not Panic City. I

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Speaker 3: may not be the player to obsess over, but he

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Speaker 3: could also it could be awesome for the Astros too.

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Speaker 3: I mean people were sort of down on shoulda right,

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Speaker 3: like when you have to sign that deal with the Cubs,

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Speaker 3: and really, for what eighty percent eighty five percent of

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Speaker 3: his time with the Cubs, he's been awesome. And so

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Speaker 3: I think to just part of it, the Cubs have

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Speaker 3: made such concerted effort to become players in Japan, and

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Speaker 3: I think a MA is a little bit different, you know,

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Speaker 3: in terms of you know, being represented by Scott Boris.

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Speaker 3: Like that's kind of a different sort of network when

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Speaker 3: you're talking about some of these relationships and how negotiations on,

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Speaker 3: it's not the same as kind of like you know,

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Speaker 3: you Darvish giving Saya Suzuki his blessing on Chicago or

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Speaker 3: you know, showed at Managa having you know, an agency

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Speaker 3: based in Chicago and just kind of hanging around the

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Speaker 3: neighborhood and it comes together that way.

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Speaker 2: But you know, I do.

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Speaker 3: Think there's value in continuing that and really maintaining that foothold.

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Speaker 3: And you see Suzuki and showed up both you know,

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Speaker 3: eligible to become free agents after the twenty twenty sixth season.

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Speaker 3: It just also makes you wonder what direction the Cubs

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Speaker 3: are heading. Is that something that they're going to really

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Speaker 3: continue to work at, or they may be going to

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Speaker 3: recede and you know, other organizations like the Astros are

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Speaker 3: going to swoop in and maybe dull that competitive edge

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Speaker 3: that the Cubs had worked to establish.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, if it comes fall take a step

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Speaker 1: back after twenty six I think it would be specifically

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Speaker 1: against what they what they have told us is coming

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Speaker 1: and what they expect and what they hope to do

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Speaker 1: like this is this would be that would be hugely disappointing,

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Speaker 1: I think for fans, and it would all that frustration

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Speaker 1: and anger I think would be completely justified. I think

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Speaker 1: right now it makes sense to be patient because there

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Speaker 1: is so much, you know, still available and potential moves

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Speaker 1: to be made. Even though it is you know, the

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Speaker 1: new year, and you would think a lot of the

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Speaker 1: work would be done. That's just not how it works anymore, apparently,

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Speaker 1: because there's plenty of work to do for them and

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Speaker 1: options that remain. I'm fascinated to see what Amaa does.

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Speaker 2: I really am.

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Speaker 1: I think it would be, you know, like, let's see

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Speaker 1: what this guy can do in Houston. It's gonna be

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Speaker 1: a tough place to pitch for him, but also a

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Speaker 1: place where you know, there's been a ton of success

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Speaker 1: recently for for pictures.

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Speaker 2: So we'll see how they how they looked, how he looks,

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Speaker 2: and and what happens uh with that contract in the end?

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Speaker 1: Uh? And and if the Cubs should have extended themselves

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Speaker 1: and been more aggressive, We'll we'll see if this was

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Speaker 1: a mistake or not.

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Speaker 3: Uh.

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Speaker 2: And what's next for the Cubs. Well, let's uh wrap

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Speaker 2: it up here.

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Speaker 1: We'll come back and talk more about what's what's left

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Speaker 1: for the Cubs on our next episode and and what

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Speaker 1: direction they could go. Thanks so much for listening. This

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Speaker 1: is Northside Territory. Make sure to rate, review, subscribe, subscribe

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Speaker 1: to the YouTube channel, and subscribe to The Athletic where

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Speaker 1: Patrick and I a on top of all things Cubs.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to everyone, Take.

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Speaker 1: Care, do

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Speaker 2: Day able