WEBVTT - Best NFL Week 12 Bets + Favorite Props (Ep. 29) 0:00:08.400 --> 0:00:11.879 Hey there everyone, Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast, 0:00:11.960 --> 0:00:14.840 brought to you by bet MGM. I am your host, 0:00:14.920 --> 0:00:16.880 Dan Harris and you can find me on Twitter at 0:00:16.960 --> 0:00:19.279 Dan Harris Ady. It is time to break down some 0:00:19.360 --> 0:00:21.959 of our favorite and our least favorite bets for the 0:00:21.960 --> 0:00:24.400 Week twelve NFL Slate. And with me to talk about 0:00:24.400 --> 0:00:27.240 it all is Greg Smith, co founder of two qbs 0:00:27.280 --> 0:00:30.120 dot com and a writer and podcaster over at four 0:00:30.160 --> 0:00:32.320 for four dot com. You can find him on Twitter 0:00:32.440 --> 0:00:34.599 at Greg Sauce. Greg. How's it going good? 0:00:34.680 --> 0:00:35.159 Dan? How are you? 0:00:35.240 --> 0:00:35.360 Man? 0:00:35.400 --> 0:00:36.000 I'm doing great. 0:00:36.360 --> 0:00:39.480 I'm doing really well. Now if I recall, we didn't 0:00:39.520 --> 0:00:40.959 do that great on our first show. Is that right? 0:00:41.000 --> 0:00:41.879 Am I making that up? 0:00:41.920 --> 0:00:43.200 I find you are correct? 0:00:43.200 --> 0:00:43.400 Week? 0:00:43.640 --> 0:00:45.840 You are correct. But I'm coming off a really hot 0:00:45.840 --> 0:00:48.199 Week eleven where I nailed most of my picks. So 0:00:48.360 --> 0:00:50.839 I'm just wincing an anticipation of the swing back at 0:00:50.840 --> 0:00:51.240 this point. 0:00:51.440 --> 0:00:54.120 Oh boy, Well, hopefully we can keep the good times going. 0:00:54.160 --> 0:00:56.200 I also had a really good week. And again, guys, 0:00:56.280 --> 0:00:58.640 Greg is a great guy to have on this show, 0:00:58.640 --> 0:01:00.880 because although he had a rough way the time we 0:01:00.920 --> 0:01:03.160 recorded several weeks ago, at this point he is the 0:01:03.280 --> 0:01:07.040 thirteenth most accurate expert over at bettingpros dot com. So 0:01:07.520 --> 0:01:08.920 I have a feeling that today is going to be 0:01:08.959 --> 0:01:11.000 a good one. Now, as usual, on our second show 0:01:11.040 --> 0:01:12.600 of the week, we are going to be breaking down 0:01:12.640 --> 0:01:14.840 three of our favorite bets of the week. We'll give 0:01:14.840 --> 0:01:16.560 you a bet to avoid, and then we're going to 0:01:16.600 --> 0:01:19.520 give you one prop bet that we're interested in. So 0:01:19.560 --> 0:01:21.800 before we get into it, let's, as always, take a 0:01:21.920 --> 0:01:24.920 very quick look at what happened last week during our 0:01:24.959 --> 0:01:27.319 pick show. I hit on the Bears in the Rams 0:01:27.400 --> 0:01:30.080 under thirty nine and a half, the Bills laying six 0:01:30.080 --> 0:01:32.400 and a half to the Dolphins, and Joe Mixon going 0:01:32.440 --> 0:01:35.120 over seventy five rushing yards for my top prop. My 0:01:35.160 --> 0:01:37.120 only miss was on the Raiders and the Bengals over 0:01:37.160 --> 0:01:39.800 forty nine, which they did not come close to. Our 0:01:39.840 --> 0:01:41.960 guest Andrew Kayley, had a good week two. He hit 0:01:42.000 --> 0:01:44.160 on the Jets getting one and a half from the Redskins, 0:01:44.360 --> 0:01:46.200 the Pats length three and a half to the Eagles, 0:01:46.200 --> 0:01:48.840 and Josh Jacob's going over one hundred yards rushing. His 0:01:48.880 --> 0:01:51.440 only miss was on the Chiefs and the Chargers over 0:01:51.520 --> 0:01:54.200 fifty two, which like my bet did not come close, 0:01:54.520 --> 0:01:56.240 So we've got some work to do here, Greg, But 0:01:56.320 --> 0:01:58.800 as I said, we're both coming off good weeks. Greg's 0:01:58.800 --> 0:02:01.200 one of the most accurate experts as a whole on 0:02:01.240 --> 0:02:02.840 the year, so I think it's going to be good. 0:02:02.920 --> 0:02:05.520 Let's get started here with our pick six, where will 0:02:05.560 --> 0:02:08.080 each list three of our best bets for the weekend. 0:02:08.160 --> 0:02:09.320 Once you start us off. 0:02:09.680 --> 0:02:13.080 I'm going with the Ravens minus three at Los Angeles. 0:02:13.280 --> 0:02:15.480 And I want to kind of start off this with 0:02:15.600 --> 0:02:17.760 a bit of a thought experiment, like, Dan, what is 0:02:17.800 --> 0:02:22.000 your initial consideration for picking a game almost before you 0:02:22.000 --> 0:02:24.760 see the line? And I know for me, I look, 0:02:24.919 --> 0:02:27.520 the first question I asked myself is who I would 0:02:27.520 --> 0:02:29.840 expect to win outright without the context of the spread, 0:02:29.880 --> 0:02:32.080 without any of that stuff. And this kind of this 0:02:32.120 --> 0:02:36.120 approach stems from the thin slicing method that was popularized 0:02:36.120 --> 0:02:39.320 by Malcolm Gladwell's book Blink. If you strip away the 0:02:39.360 --> 0:02:42.200 minutia and you trust your intuition, your instinct, got feeling, 0:02:42.280 --> 0:02:45.600 whatever you want to call it, you're left with that 0:02:45.680 --> 0:02:48.079 first impression. And you might have heard, you know, when 0:02:48.080 --> 0:02:50.960 you're training for multiple choice tests when you were a kid, 0:02:51.960 --> 0:02:53.959 the first instinct you have is usually correct, and I 0:02:54.000 --> 0:02:56.720 think that's the way I'm looking at this line for Baltimore. 0:02:57.639 --> 0:02:59.840 Once I have that baseline read of who I think 0:02:59.880 --> 0:03:01.480 is going to win a given matchup, Like I think 0:03:01.480 --> 0:03:02.959 the Ravens are a better team than the Rams, so 0:03:03.160 --> 0:03:05.240 I'm going to pick them here, then I think you 0:03:05.280 --> 0:03:07.919 can start to work backward and test it against the 0:03:08.000 --> 0:03:10.320 context of the matchup. You know who's home, who's away? 0:03:10.360 --> 0:03:13.440 Does that matter? How do the recent injuries impact the matchup? 0:03:13.480 --> 0:03:16.800 What's the spread of the matchup? And the smaller the spread, 0:03:17.080 --> 0:03:19.680 the more likely I am to trust in that initial 0:03:20.080 --> 0:03:22.160 who will win judgment and treat the game like a 0:03:22.160 --> 0:03:25.160 pick them when I ultimately make my selection. So in 0:03:25.160 --> 0:03:28.200 the case of Rams Ravens, the line is small enough 0:03:28.200 --> 0:03:30.920 that I'm pretty confident just taking Baltimore. They're simply the 0:03:30.960 --> 0:03:33.160 better team right now. They rank second in DVA and 0:03:33.280 --> 0:03:36.360 weighted DVA, the Rams ranked twelfth and DVA fourteenth and 0:03:36.400 --> 0:03:39.520 waited DVA and those weighted numbers from Football Outsiders put 0:03:39.560 --> 0:03:42.400 more emphasis on recent play, So that tells us that 0:03:42.400 --> 0:03:45.000 the Rams are actually worse in recent weeks than they 0:03:45.040 --> 0:03:47.480 have been on the season. And if you've been watching 0:03:47.520 --> 0:03:49.920 the Rams. This should come as no surprise, right. LA's 0:03:49.920 --> 0:03:51.960 primary strength at this point is on defense, where they 0:03:52.000 --> 0:03:55.440 rank eighth in DVA. The Rams are particularly strong along 0:03:55.520 --> 0:03:58.920 the defensive line, where Aaron Donald's impact cannot be understated. 0:03:58.960 --> 0:04:02.440 He is an amazing player. But the Ravens running game 0:04:02.640 --> 0:04:04.680 should be able to fight back in the trenches thanks 0:04:04.720 --> 0:04:07.080 to an offensive line that ranks fifth and justin lineyards. 0:04:07.400 --> 0:04:09.480 And meanwhile, that Rams pass rush I think is going 0:04:09.520 --> 0:04:13.160 to be mitigated by Lamar Jackson's otherworldly ability to escape pressure, 0:04:13.480 --> 0:04:16.040 run for first downs, and more all that good stuff. 0:04:16.320 --> 0:04:18.160 On the other side of the ball, the Ravens defense 0:04:18.279 --> 0:04:20.840 is only getting better. They ranked tenth in defensive DVA 0:04:20.920 --> 0:04:23.640 on the season, but eighth and waited DVA. Jared Goff 0:04:23.720 --> 0:04:26.359 is typically better at home, but considering all the injuries 0:04:26.400 --> 0:04:29.040 his offenses dealing with along the line and a wide receiver, 0:04:29.360 --> 0:04:31.320 I just don't really see a phase of the game 0:04:31.480 --> 0:04:34.000 in this matchup where the Rams have an advantage. So 0:04:34.080 --> 0:04:36.039 give me the Ravens minus three on the road. 0:04:36.160 --> 0:04:38.919 Yeah, if you weren't taking this, this would definitely be 0:04:39.040 --> 0:04:40.960 my number one pick. We talked about it on Monday 0:04:41.040 --> 0:04:43.480 Show where we were just crazy Now, look, I get it. 0:04:43.560 --> 0:04:45.360 The look ahead line here was a pick em right, 0:04:45.440 --> 0:04:48.240 so it's moved three points off that. That's a pretty 0:04:48.240 --> 0:04:50.560 significant move from the look ahead line. I get it, 0:04:50.600 --> 0:04:54.600 but I don't understand any Like I'm trying to play 0:04:54.600 --> 0:04:56.520 this game out in my head a million different ways, 0:04:56.560 --> 0:04:59.320 it's really difficult for me to see a scenario where 0:05:00.040 --> 0:05:03.600 the Ravens obviously not only win but also covered. They 0:05:03.600 --> 0:05:06.280 are just by far the superior team right now. They 0:05:06.279 --> 0:05:10.560 are clicking on all cylinders absolutely. Lamar Jackson is certainly 0:05:10.680 --> 0:05:13.760 either the MVP, maybe the runner up to Christian McCaffrey 0:05:13.800 --> 0:05:16.920 or Russell Wilson, but probably the MVP. He's playing at 0:05:16.960 --> 0:05:18.920 an absolutely elite level. And you hit on it is 0:05:18.960 --> 0:05:21.960 that the defense really wasn't that great to start, and 0:05:22.080 --> 0:05:24.160 you know, I get that when they lost Brandon Williams, 0:05:24.160 --> 0:05:27.200 they rush defense wasn't that great. They had injuries at cornerback, 0:05:27.400 --> 0:05:30.239 but they're pretty much getting healthy everywhere and they're playing 0:05:30.640 --> 0:05:33.080 exceptionally well. And on the other side of the ball, 0:05:33.279 --> 0:05:35.800 the Rams are just look at defense, you mentioned it. 0:05:35.839 --> 0:05:38.119 I mean, they're solid, for sure, but it's nothing Lamar 0:05:38.160 --> 0:05:42.719 Jackson can't beat. But look their offensive line right now 0:05:42.839 --> 0:05:44.680 is a joke, and it wasn't good to begin the 0:05:44.760 --> 0:05:46.680 year right even when they were all healthy, but they 0:05:46.720 --> 0:05:49.560 have dealt with so many injuries coming in there they 0:05:50.000 --> 0:05:52.479 you know, and golf is you know, we know what 0:05:52.600 --> 0:05:54.560 Jared Goff is right now. You've you know, it's been 0:05:54.600 --> 0:05:57.839 demonstrated here over the last I don't know, fourteen games 0:05:57.920 --> 0:06:00.240 or something like that, is that if you get sure 0:06:00.279 --> 0:06:02.240 on him and he doesn't have the time to let 0:06:02.240 --> 0:06:05.640 the play develop, he is just not able to kind 0:06:05.680 --> 0:06:08.680 of improvise and hit the receivers that are also injuries. 0:06:08.720 --> 0:06:10.359 I don't know what's going on, by the way, with 0:06:10.520 --> 0:06:13.120 Robert Woods. I know he missed for personal reasons, but 0:06:13.120 --> 0:06:15.599 he hasn't practiced yet this week. There's talk that Brndon 0:06:15.640 --> 0:06:18.960 Cooks is supposed to come back. But I mean, either way, 0:06:19.000 --> 0:06:21.000 this does not seem like a game that's going to 0:06:21.040 --> 0:06:23.760 be anywhere close at this point. And it's not like 0:06:23.800 --> 0:06:27.000 the Rams have some significant home field advantage, right It's 0:06:27.080 --> 0:06:28.800 just not like that at this point. So for me, 0:06:29.200 --> 0:06:31.320 this definitely would have been my best pick of the 0:06:31.320 --> 0:06:34.160 week if you didn't take it, and just looking you know, 0:06:34.279 --> 0:06:36.320 both at the number of bets and the amount of 0:06:36.320 --> 0:06:39.440 money that's coming in it is overwhelmingly on the Ravens. 0:06:39.480 --> 0:06:42.280 And if you look at the bettingpros dot com break down, 0:06:42.320 --> 0:06:45.200 eighty five percent of our experts are taking Baltimore. And 0:06:45.240 --> 0:06:47.560 if you look at the top twenty percent the most 0:06:47.600 --> 0:06:51.239 accurate experts, ninety two percent of them are taking Baltimore. 0:06:51.279 --> 0:06:53.560 So again, this is game. The one thing I'll ask 0:06:53.920 --> 0:06:56.000 is do you get worried when you see a line 0:06:56.000 --> 0:06:57.800 like this? Because, I mean, the way you talked about 0:06:57.800 --> 0:06:59.520 it kind of looks like we're looking at the game 0:06:59.560 --> 0:07:02.320 the same way. Do you get a little worried that essentially, 0:07:02.400 --> 0:07:04.360 even after they moved it to three, because it's been 0:07:04.360 --> 0:07:06.320 at three since I think Monday. When we looked at 0:07:06.360 --> 0:07:08.440 it Monday again to look ahead, line was pick them, 0:07:08.440 --> 0:07:09.880 but they opened it at three. There's a ton of 0:07:09.920 --> 0:07:12.480 money coming in still in Baltimore, but it hasn't moved yet. 0:07:12.480 --> 0:07:13.800 Does that ever? Do you ever look at a line 0:07:13.840 --> 0:07:15.720 and say, man, this seems too good to be true, 0:07:15.760 --> 0:07:18.240 maybe I'm missing something and get a little skittish in 0:07:18.280 --> 0:07:19.160 that area. 0:07:20.720 --> 0:07:23.840 I am nervous when that happens. I'm also nervous when 0:07:23.880 --> 0:07:25.800 so many people seem to be having the same thought 0:07:25.800 --> 0:07:28.240 as me on a pick. But at the same time, 0:07:28.360 --> 0:07:31.080 this is just one of those matchups where, like I said, 0:07:31.120 --> 0:07:33.760 my initial reaction is that the Ravens are a significantly 0:07:33.800 --> 0:07:36.480 better team and they're healthier, Like, all this stuff is 0:07:36.520 --> 0:07:38.760 adding up to a point where I just wouldn't feel 0:07:38.800 --> 0:07:41.240 comfortable taking the Rams. I'm not even sure where the 0:07:41.280 --> 0:07:43.960 line would have to be for me to feel really 0:07:44.000 --> 0:07:47.960 queasy about it. But again, because three is essentially it's 0:07:48.000 --> 0:07:50.080 almost to pick them right. It's not quite, but it's 0:07:50.160 --> 0:07:52.760 close enough for teams that are this disparate in my 0:07:52.880 --> 0:07:55.960 mind that I just I don't know where the line 0:07:55.960 --> 0:07:58.200 would have to be for me to feel weird about it. 0:07:58.240 --> 0:08:00.000 But at this point, no, I'm not too worried. 0:08:00.400 --> 0:08:02.800 Now. I'm one hundred percent with you, and I keep 0:08:02.840 --> 0:08:04.480 you know, occasionally I'll look at it, especially, you know, 0:08:04.480 --> 0:08:07.160 whenever you get a bet that so much of the 0:08:07.160 --> 0:08:09.360 public is back, and you get a little nervous because 0:08:09.360 --> 0:08:11.160 you know, you never really want to be shaded with 0:08:11.240 --> 0:08:12.960 the public. But like this past week, you know, the 0:08:13.000 --> 0:08:15.560 books all took a beating this past week, so sometimes 0:08:15.560 --> 0:08:17.200 you know, you you go with the Pats or you 0:08:17.200 --> 0:08:19.520 go with the Saints. To cover the spread and sometimes 0:08:19.600 --> 0:08:21.400 it works out. So I'm in total agreement with you 0:08:21.880 --> 0:08:24.679 on that one. For my first pick again, it's it's 0:08:24.760 --> 0:08:26.880 I'm going to call this the Ravens light. I don't 0:08:26.920 --> 0:08:28.800 necessarily know if you're gonna agree, but for me, I 0:08:28.840 --> 0:08:31.800 feel really really confident in this one, and that is 0:08:31.840 --> 0:08:34.439 even though they're on the road, the Seahawks getting one 0:08:34.440 --> 0:08:36.920 and a half from the Eagles. I mentioned this on 0:08:37.120 --> 0:08:39.199 a Monday show that this struck me as one of 0:08:39.280 --> 0:08:41.200 my favorite lines of the week. I don't feel any 0:08:41.200 --> 0:08:43.920 differently as I've analyzed it as the week has gone on. 0:08:44.040 --> 0:08:47.320 I'm really not sure of the faith that the books 0:08:47.360 --> 0:08:49.319 continue to place in the Eagles here. I mean, I 0:08:49.559 --> 0:08:51.640 get that they easily could have won the game against 0:08:51.640 --> 0:08:53.920 the Pats last week, but since they won the Super Bowl, 0:08:54.000 --> 0:08:57.160 they've essentially been a mediocre team, and that's exactly what 0:08:57.240 --> 0:08:59.520 they are this year. I get that they've dealt with 0:08:59.520 --> 0:09:01.720 an incredible amount of injuries like all year long, right, 0:09:01.760 --> 0:09:03.200 and they played the Pats hard. As I said, they 0:09:03.200 --> 0:09:05.160 easily could have won that game, but they just lack 0:09:05.280 --> 0:09:08.600 the firepower on offense, largely because of their problems at 0:09:08.600 --> 0:09:11.559 the receiver position. To Shan Jackson has effectively missed the 0:09:11.800 --> 0:09:14.600 entire season, and that's a huge deal because his presence 0:09:14.880 --> 0:09:17.360 is as the field stretcher was really going to open 0:09:17.400 --> 0:09:20.600 things off for Carson Wentz. Alshram Jeffrey is still battling injuries. 0:09:20.640 --> 0:09:23.000 I think he's still only doing individual drills, so I'm 0:09:23.000 --> 0:09:25.480 not expecting him to play in this week. Nelson Aguiler 0:09:25.559 --> 0:09:28.600 continues to struggle doing the only thing that a wide 0:09:28.600 --> 0:09:30.680 receiver is supposed to be able to do, and that 0:09:30.760 --> 0:09:32.960 has catched the ball. The receivers rank last in the 0:09:33.000 --> 0:09:35.800 league in yards, second to last and catches, and second 0:09:35.840 --> 0:09:38.360 to last in yards per catch. They've got Zach Ertz 0:09:38.360 --> 0:09:41.240 and Dallas Goddard. There's still threats Jordan Howard can run 0:09:41.280 --> 0:09:44.160 the ball effectively if he plays, but he missed last week. 0:09:44.200 --> 0:09:45.880 It's unclear if he's going to be back this week. 0:09:45.920 --> 0:09:47.800 I think he may have been limited right now. Now 0:09:47.800 --> 0:09:50.200 they've got Lane Johnson in the concussion protocol that's going 0:09:50.240 --> 0:09:52.760 to hit on their offensive line. The Seahawks defense isn't 0:09:52.760 --> 0:09:55.679 overly impressive by any means, but Jadavian Clowney is really 0:09:55.720 --> 0:09:58.400 starting to play extremely well, and I don't think you 0:09:58.520 --> 0:10:00.440 need to be an elite defense to be able to 0:10:00.520 --> 0:10:03.360 slow down the Eagles, who just really lack that big 0:10:03.360 --> 0:10:04.839 play threat. And on the other side of the ball, 0:10:04.880 --> 0:10:07.960 the Eagles look they're coming off a bye. It sounds 0:10:08.040 --> 0:10:09.640 like Tyler Lockett's gonna be able to play. I'm a 0:10:09.679 --> 0:10:12.200 little nervous here because again, he did not practice today. 0:10:12.200 --> 0:10:14.640 We're recording this on Wednesday. He did not practice today. 0:10:14.640 --> 0:10:17.599 Pete Carroll is expressing optimism that he's going to be 0:10:17.600 --> 0:10:19.880 able to play, so I'm penciling him in. Josh Gordon 0:10:19.920 --> 0:10:23.280 gets another week to get acclimated. And really it's Russell Wilson. 0:10:23.400 --> 0:10:26.480 I mean, he's playing at an absolutely elite level, similar 0:10:26.520 --> 0:10:29.320 to Lamar Jackson. The Eagles cannot stop the pass. They 0:10:29.360 --> 0:10:31.040 do have a good run defense. They allow the fourth 0:10:31.040 --> 0:10:33.320 fewest rushing yards per game. That's impressive. Maybe they can 0:10:33.360 --> 0:10:36.120 slow down Chris Carson and they may get Nigel Braden back, 0:10:36.200 --> 0:10:39.040 so that's gonna help their defense overall. But really it's 0:10:39.080 --> 0:10:41.440 about Russell Wilson and what he's able to do. I get, 0:10:41.480 --> 0:10:44.040 you know, it's a West Coast team traveling east, but 0:10:44.160 --> 0:10:46.480 really they're coming off a bye. Under Pete Carroll, they 0:10:46.559 --> 0:10:48.640 won five of their last six games off a bye, 0:10:48.679 --> 0:10:51.040 including the last three, they allowed just seventeen and a 0:10:51.080 --> 0:10:53.840 half points per game coming off of bye. So look, 0:10:53.880 --> 0:10:55.800 if Lockett doesn't play in this one, I like it 0:10:55.840 --> 0:10:57.840 a little less. But to me, again, sort of the 0:10:57.960 --> 0:10:59.960 process that you analyzed, who would I expect to win 0:11:00.440 --> 0:11:03.120 the Seahawks versus the Eagles. It's a little difficult because 0:11:03.440 --> 0:11:05.520 you know, you don't think of the Seahawks really, they're 0:11:05.559 --> 0:11:08.040 not a great team. It's mostly Russell Wilson. But still 0:11:08.080 --> 0:11:11.240 I would expect. I'd expect the Seahawks to win here. 0:11:11.280 --> 0:11:13.040 And so when you've got that, even though they're on 0:11:13.040 --> 0:11:15.280 the road, it's essentially a pick up. I mean under 0:11:15.320 --> 0:11:17.400 three for sure. So for me, I'm gonna go with 0:11:17.440 --> 0:11:19.600 the Seahawks. And I feel pretty good about this one. 0:11:19.760 --> 0:11:21.760 This wasn't one of my best bets, but I'm in 0:11:21.800 --> 0:11:23.480 complete agreement with you here. This is one of the 0:11:23.520 --> 0:11:26.440 picks I wrote up in my rankings article for the week, 0:11:26.880 --> 0:11:30.040 and I love the Seahawks as well. They rank pretty 0:11:30.080 --> 0:11:32.240 equally if you look at VOA, and in both cases, 0:11:32.280 --> 0:11:36.079 the Seahawks rank better both in seasonal DVA and way 0:11:36.120 --> 0:11:39.920 to DVA. They're getting points, they have an MVP candidate 0:11:39.960 --> 0:11:42.120 in Russell Wilson, and even if the Eagles are able 0:11:42.120 --> 0:11:45.240 to stop the running game Chris Carson and the Seahawks 0:11:45.320 --> 0:11:48.680 running game, that might just incentivize the Seahawks to do 0:11:48.679 --> 0:11:50.400 what they should be doing and using Russell Wilson to 0:11:50.400 --> 0:11:52.360 throw the ball more Like what am I missing here? 0:11:52.520 --> 0:11:55.240 I'm totally with you. The part about this matchup that 0:11:55.240 --> 0:11:57.720 I find really fascinating is the forty eight point over under. 0:11:58.240 --> 0:11:59.960 I don't know where to go with that. I think 0:12:00.080 --> 0:12:01.560 it's probably a stay away, but do you have a 0:12:01.559 --> 0:12:03.319 good read one way or the other, because it seems 0:12:03.400 --> 0:12:07.160 like both these two teams want to funnel the opposing 0:12:07.240 --> 0:12:09.480 offense to throw the ball as opposed to run the ball, 0:12:09.520 --> 0:12:12.000 and that would lead me to expect a higher total 0:12:12.280 --> 0:12:14.680 at the end of the game. But I just don't 0:12:14.679 --> 0:12:16.800 know if that's the mindset of these two teams either, 0:12:16.880 --> 0:12:18.839 is to try to run it up like that. I 0:12:19.280 --> 0:12:20.760 want to take the under, but then I looked at 0:12:20.800 --> 0:12:22.840 some of the consensus stuff on betting pros and it 0:12:22.840 --> 0:12:24.800 looks like a lot more people are on the over, 0:12:24.840 --> 0:12:27.120 and I'm not sure if I agree with that. Where 0:12:27.120 --> 0:12:28.920 do you fall on the over? Under in this game. 0:12:29.040 --> 0:12:31.240 It's a stay away from me, and pretty much for 0:12:31.320 --> 0:12:33.360 the reasons that you mentioned, I'm not going to be 0:12:33.440 --> 0:12:37.120 picking it on the betting pros dot Com consensus picks 0:12:37.160 --> 0:12:39.840 or anything like that. I agree with you. This game 0:12:40.000 --> 0:12:42.600 sort of funnels, I think when you look at it 0:12:42.679 --> 0:12:45.480 towards the over right, because you expect neither team is 0:12:45.520 --> 0:12:48.199 going to have particular success running the ball. They're both 0:12:48.240 --> 0:12:50.120 going to have to pass. But I don't really expect 0:12:50.160 --> 0:12:51.600 the Eagles at this point to be able to put 0:12:51.679 --> 0:12:54.439 up significant points. It's just I don't have faith in 0:12:54.480 --> 0:12:56.839 their offense going in, largely because of the injuries. I 0:12:56.840 --> 0:12:58.840 don't expect as On Jeffrey to play in this one. 0:12:58.920 --> 0:13:01.440 That's a huge I mean, you've got whether or not 0:13:01.480 --> 0:13:03.520 you want to call Jordan Matthews or you want to 0:13:03.520 --> 0:13:06.000 call Nelson Aguil or your number one wide receiver, it 0:13:06.000 --> 0:13:07.760 doesn't matter. That should tell you all you need to 0:13:07.800 --> 0:13:09.600 know about the fact that those are the two guys 0:13:09.880 --> 0:13:12.120 in contentionent. So I don't really have that much faith 0:13:12.320 --> 0:13:14.680 in the Eagles being able to put up that many points. 0:13:14.720 --> 0:13:16.920 And the Eagles defense, to be fair, is improving a 0:13:16.960 --> 0:13:19.080 little bit. They're getting a little bit healthier in the secondary. 0:13:19.080 --> 0:13:21.320 They played well against the Pats last week, So it's 0:13:21.440 --> 0:13:24.120 not though a game I feel like it does funnel 0:13:24.200 --> 0:13:26.199 sort of towards the over, but it's not a game 0:13:26.200 --> 0:13:28.760 where I feel particularly confident that it would get there. 0:13:28.800 --> 0:13:31.040 So for me, it's kind of a stay away at 0:13:31.040 --> 0:13:33.720 that number. All right, let's move on to your second 0:13:33.760 --> 0:13:35.520 pick over here? What do you got for number two? 0:13:35.880 --> 0:13:38.160 So I'm going to take the Jets plus three at 0:13:38.200 --> 0:13:40.599 home against the Raiders. And this pick might seem to 0:13:40.600 --> 0:13:43.080 fly in the face of that clad Willian approach I 0:13:43.120 --> 0:13:46.080 outlined for the Ravens pick, because at a base level, 0:13:46.080 --> 0:13:48.120 I would expect the Raiders to win this game out right, 0:13:48.440 --> 0:13:52.439 but in this case, it's one where the extra context 0:13:52.480 --> 0:13:54.960 alters my perception of the matchup a little bit. The 0:13:55.000 --> 0:13:57.559 warm Weather Raiders are favored, but they're traveling east for 0:13:57.600 --> 0:14:00.000 an early start in gold Weather. They're one in three 0:14:00.640 --> 0:14:04.840 in road games already this season, and could slash should 0:14:04.840 --> 0:14:07.280 be looking ahead to a more important road game next 0:14:07.320 --> 0:14:10.280 week against their divisional rival, the Kansas City Chiefs. So 0:14:10.440 --> 0:14:12.720 if you're the type of person who believes in trap games, 0:14:13.160 --> 0:14:15.760 this one fits the bill. Regardless, there are some non 0:14:15.840 --> 0:14:18.360 narrative reasons to like the Jets as well. With their 0:14:18.400 --> 0:14:21.760 second ranked rush defense by DVOA and top ranked defensive 0:14:21.800 --> 0:14:24.440 line by justin lineyards, New York should be able to 0:14:24.440 --> 0:14:27.360 disrupt the identity Oakland is built around Josh Jacobs, and 0:14:27.440 --> 0:14:30.280 on offense, Sam Darnold and company will have the pleasure 0:14:30.280 --> 0:14:32.040 of facing a Raiders team that ranks twenty third and 0:14:32.080 --> 0:14:36.120 passing DVA or passing defense DVA while allowing the seventh 0:14:36.160 --> 0:14:38.960 most passing yards per game and the third most passing 0:14:39.080 --> 0:14:41.600 touchdowns per game. Derek Carr is really going to have 0:14:41.640 --> 0:14:43.480 to step up in a significant way for the Raiders 0:14:43.480 --> 0:14:45.480 to cover. And I'm not a Derek Carr believer, so 0:14:45.480 --> 0:14:46.640 give me the points with the Jets. 0:14:47.000 --> 0:14:49.560 I mean, I think it's brave because as a Jets fan, 0:14:49.800 --> 0:14:52.440 I fear trusting the Jets, and I look, I was 0:14:52.440 --> 0:14:54.240 on them a lot earlier in this season after that 0:14:54.320 --> 0:14:57.920 Cowboys game, who where I backed them as well. Certainly 0:14:57.920 --> 0:15:00.520 they got crushed against the Patriots next week get crushed 0:15:00.520 --> 0:15:03.080 against the Jaguars, So I am a little gunshy, but yeah, 0:15:03.080 --> 0:15:04.760 this is a line where when I looked at it 0:15:04.800 --> 0:15:07.880 on Monday, I said, yikes, it kind of feels like 0:15:07.920 --> 0:15:10.240 this line needs to be a little bit higher here, 0:15:10.320 --> 0:15:12.480 like more like the Raiders laying four and a half 0:15:12.600 --> 0:15:14.880 something like that. But for the reasons that you broke 0:15:14.920 --> 0:15:17.360 down I Hack, this game kind of sets up well 0:15:17.360 --> 0:15:19.280 for the Jets. Like, forget about the fact that Oakland 0:15:19.360 --> 0:15:22.520 is coming east and their history, they don't usually play 0:15:22.560 --> 0:15:25.120 well when they need to come east. But essentially, the 0:15:25.160 --> 0:15:29.400 strength of the Raiders game offensively is their run game. 0:15:29.440 --> 0:15:31.720 That's the one thing that the Jets can really attack, 0:15:31.760 --> 0:15:33.960 and they don't have the wide receivers. You know, Jamal 0:15:34.000 --> 0:15:36.040 Adams is great, but for the most part, the secondary 0:15:36.080 --> 0:15:39.360 for the Jets really struggles with cornerbacks are subpar. But 0:15:39.600 --> 0:15:41.320 you know, the thing about the Raiders is they don't 0:15:41.320 --> 0:15:43.680 really have those elite wide receivers that could take advantage 0:15:43.680 --> 0:15:46.200 of it. Tyrell Williams is fine, but he's battling planter 0:15:46.320 --> 0:15:49.320 fasci itis as he goes through Hunter Renfros Okay, Zay 0:15:49.360 --> 0:15:51.720 Jones isn't really doing anything. Darren Waller is gonna present 0:15:51.760 --> 0:15:53.680 a little bit of a problem. But again, on the 0:15:53.720 --> 0:15:56.160 other side, as you mentioned, really the big thing for 0:15:56.200 --> 0:15:58.520 the Jets is that the offensive line is atrocious, But 0:15:58.560 --> 0:16:01.120 when you're going up against an oak team that really 0:16:01.120 --> 0:16:03.680 struggles to get pressure on the quarterback, I think this 0:16:03.760 --> 0:16:05.840 is an area that the Jets can exploit. So I 0:16:05.880 --> 0:16:08.640 do expect the game to be close. I'm not sure 0:16:08.680 --> 0:16:09.960 whether or not the Jets are going to win, but 0:16:10.000 --> 0:16:12.400 certainly the quote unquote trap game. That is what this says. 0:16:12.440 --> 0:16:15.520 And I will say that the public is backing the 0:16:15.640 --> 0:16:18.320 Raiders as you might expect, but the money is backing 0:16:18.400 --> 0:16:21.240 the Jets, which basically shows you. Usually it's a little 0:16:21.280 --> 0:16:23.680 early to make the conclusion, but it's usually a sign 0:16:23.680 --> 0:16:26.000 that sharpbetters are backing the Jets. And when you look 0:16:26.000 --> 0:16:29.400 again at our breakdown at bettingpros dot com, seventy percent 0:16:29.520 --> 0:16:32.080 are backing the Jets over Oakland. So it looks like 0:16:32.280 --> 0:16:34.560 you've got a lot of support with that bet. Again, 0:16:34.680 --> 0:16:36.400 something that I don't It's not one of the ones 0:16:36.440 --> 0:16:38.480 that I'm super excited about. If I'm forced to pick 0:16:38.480 --> 0:16:40.800 a side, I'll go with the Jets. But I certainly 0:16:40.840 --> 0:16:42.160 get everywhere that you're coming from. 0:16:42.360 --> 0:16:44.520 Yeah, so your bias against the Jets as a Jets 0:16:44.520 --> 0:16:46.920 fan is kind of mirrored by my bias against the Raiders. 0:16:46.920 --> 0:16:49.680 I'm a Bay Area guy. I'm not necessarily a Raiders fan, 0:16:49.760 --> 0:16:52.080 but they're one of the teams that's always on TV 0:16:52.560 --> 0:16:54.800 when I was growing up, and even up until this 0:16:54.880 --> 0:16:57.800