Speaker 1: Hey there everyone, Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast,
Speaker 1: brought to you by bet MGM. I am your host,
Speaker 1: Dan Harris and you can find me on Twitter at
Speaker 1: Dan Harris Ady. It is time to break down some
Speaker 1: of our favorite and our least favorite bets for the
Speaker 1: Week twelve NFL Slate. And with me to talk about
Speaker 1: it all is Greg Smith, co founder of two qbs
Speaker 1: dot com and a writer and podcaster over at four
Speaker 1: for four dot com. You can find him on Twitter
Speaker 1: at Greg Sauce. Greg. How's it going good?
Speaker 2: Dan? How are you?
Speaker 1: Man?
Speaker 2: I'm doing great.
Speaker 1: I'm doing really well. Now if I recall, we didn't
Speaker 1: do that great on our first show. Is that right?
Speaker 1: Am I making that up?
Speaker 2: I find you are correct?
Speaker 1: Week?
Speaker 2: You are correct. But I'm coming off a really hot
Speaker 2: Week eleven where I nailed most of my picks. So
Speaker 2: I'm just wincing an anticipation of the swing back at
Speaker 2: this point.
Speaker 1: Oh boy, Well, hopefully we can keep the good times going.
Speaker 1: I also had a really good week. And again, guys,
Speaker 1: Greg is a great guy to have on this show,
Speaker 1: because although he had a rough way the time we
Speaker 1: recorded several weeks ago, at this point he is the
Speaker 1: thirteenth most accurate expert over at bettingpros dot com. So
Speaker 1: I have a feeling that today is going to be
Speaker 1: a good one. Now, as usual, on our second show
Speaker 1: of the week, we are going to be breaking down
Speaker 1: three of our favorite bets of the week. We'll give
Speaker 1: you a bet to avoid, and then we're going to
Speaker 1: give you one prop bet that we're interested in. So
Speaker 1: before we get into it, let's, as always, take a
Speaker 1: very quick look at what happened last week during our
Speaker 1: pick show. I hit on the Bears in the Rams
Speaker 1: under thirty nine and a half, the Bills laying six
Speaker 1: and a half to the Dolphins, and Joe Mixon going
Speaker 1: over seventy five rushing yards for my top prop. My
Speaker 1: only miss was on the Raiders and the Bengals over
Speaker 1: forty nine, which they did not come close to. Our
Speaker 1: guest Andrew Kayley, had a good week two. He hit
Speaker 1: on the Jets getting one and a half from the Redskins,
Speaker 1: the Pats length three and a half to the Eagles,
Speaker 1: and Josh Jacob's going over one hundred yards rushing. His
Speaker 1: only miss was on the Chiefs and the Chargers over
Speaker 1: fifty two, which like my bet did not come close,
Speaker 1: So we've got some work to do here, Greg, But
Speaker 1: as I said, we're both coming off good weeks. Greg's
Speaker 1: one of the most accurate experts as a whole on
Speaker 1: the year, so I think it's going to be good.
Speaker 1: Let's get started here with our pick six, where will
Speaker 1: each list three of our best bets for the weekend.
Speaker 1: Once you start us off.
Speaker 2: I'm going with the Ravens minus three at Los Angeles.
Speaker 2: And I want to kind of start off this with
Speaker 2: a bit of a thought experiment, like, Dan, what is
Speaker 2: your initial consideration for picking a game almost before you
Speaker 2: see the line? And I know for me, I look,
Speaker 2: the first question I asked myself is who I would
Speaker 2: expect to win outright without the context of the spread,
Speaker 2: without any of that stuff. And this kind of this
Speaker 2: approach stems from the thin slicing method that was popularized
Speaker 2: by Malcolm Gladwell's book Blink. If you strip away the
Speaker 2: minutia and you trust your intuition, your instinct, got feeling,
Speaker 2: whatever you want to call it, you're left with that
Speaker 2: first impression. And you might have heard, you know, when
Speaker 2: you're training for multiple choice tests when you were a kid,
Speaker 2: the first instinct you have is usually correct, and I
Speaker 2: think that's the way I'm looking at this line for Baltimore.
Speaker 2: Once I have that baseline read of who I think
Speaker 2: is going to win a given matchup, Like I think
Speaker 2: the Ravens are a better team than the Rams, so
Speaker 2: I'm going to pick them here, then I think you
Speaker 2: can start to work backward and test it against the
Speaker 2: context of the matchup. You know who's home, who's away?
Speaker 2: Does that matter? How do the recent injuries impact the matchup?
Speaker 2: What's the spread of the matchup? And the smaller the spread,
Speaker 2: the more likely I am to trust in that initial
Speaker 2: who will win judgment and treat the game like a
Speaker 2: pick them when I ultimately make my selection. So in
Speaker 2: the case of Rams Ravens, the line is small enough
Speaker 2: that I'm pretty confident just taking Baltimore. They're simply the
Speaker 2: better team right now. They rank second in DVA and
Speaker 2: weighted DVA, the Rams ranked twelfth and DVA fourteenth and
Speaker 2: waited DVA and those weighted numbers from Football Outsiders put
Speaker 2: more emphasis on recent play, So that tells us that
Speaker 2: the Rams are actually worse in recent weeks than they
Speaker 2: have been on the season. And if you've been watching
Speaker 2: the Rams. This should come as no surprise, right. LA's
Speaker 2: primary strength at this point is on defense, where they
Speaker 2: rank eighth in DVA. The Rams are particularly strong along
Speaker 2: the defensive line, where Aaron Donald's impact cannot be understated.
Speaker 2: He is an amazing player. But the Ravens running game
Speaker 2: should be able to fight back in the trenches thanks
Speaker 2: to an offensive line that ranks fifth and justin lineyards.
Speaker 2: And meanwhile, that Rams pass rush I think is going
Speaker 2: to be mitigated by Lamar Jackson's otherworldly ability to escape pressure,
Speaker 2: run for first downs, and more all that good stuff.
Speaker 2: On the other side of the ball, the Ravens defense
Speaker 2: is only getting better. They ranked tenth in defensive DVA
Speaker 2: on the season, but eighth and waited DVA. Jared Goff
Speaker 2: is typically better at home, but considering all the injuries
Speaker 2: his offenses dealing with along the line and a wide receiver,
Speaker 2: I just don't really see a phase of the game
Speaker 2: in this matchup where the Rams have an advantage. So
Speaker 2: give me the Ravens minus three on the road.
Speaker 1: Yeah, if you weren't taking this, this would definitely be
Speaker 1: my number one pick. We talked about it on Monday
Speaker 1: Show where we were just crazy Now, look, I get it.
Speaker 1: The look ahead line here was a pick em right,
Speaker 1: so it's moved three points off that. That's a pretty
Speaker 1: significant move from the look ahead line. I get it,
Speaker 1: but I don't understand any Like I'm trying to play
Speaker 1: this game out in my head a million different ways,
Speaker 1: it's really difficult for me to see a scenario where
Speaker 1: the Ravens obviously not only win but also covered. They
Speaker 1: are just by far the superior team right now. They
Speaker 1: are clicking on all cylinders absolutely. Lamar Jackson is certainly
Speaker 1: either the MVP, maybe the runner up to Christian McCaffrey
Speaker 1: or Russell Wilson, but probably the MVP. He's playing at
Speaker 1: an absolutely elite level. And you hit on it is
Speaker 1: that the defense really wasn't that great to start, and
Speaker 1: you know, I get that when they lost Brandon Williams,
Speaker 1: they rush defense wasn't that great. They had injuries at cornerback,
Speaker 1: but they're pretty much getting healthy everywhere and they're playing
Speaker 1: exceptionally well. And on the other side of the ball,
Speaker 1: the Rams are just look at defense, you mentioned it.
Speaker 1: I mean, they're solid, for sure, but it's nothing Lamar
Speaker 1: Jackson can't beat. But look their offensive line right now
Speaker 1: is a joke, and it wasn't good to begin the
Speaker 1: year right even when they were all healthy, but they
Speaker 1: have dealt with so many injuries coming in there they
Speaker 1: you know, and golf is you know, we know what
Speaker 1: Jared Goff is right now. You've you know, it's been
Speaker 1: demonstrated here over the last I don't know, fourteen games
Speaker 1: or something like that, is that if you get sure
Speaker 1: on him and he doesn't have the time to let
Speaker 1: the play develop, he is just not able to kind
Speaker 1: of improvise and hit the receivers that are also injuries.
Speaker 1: I don't know what's going on, by the way, with
Speaker 1: Robert Woods. I know he missed for personal reasons, but
Speaker 1: he hasn't practiced yet this week. There's talk that Brndon
Speaker 1: Cooks is supposed to come back. But I mean, either way,
Speaker 1: this does not seem like a game that's going to
Speaker 1: be anywhere close at this point. And it's not like
Speaker 1: the Rams have some significant home field advantage, right It's
Speaker 1: just not like that at this point. So for me,
Speaker 1: this definitely would have been my best pick of the
Speaker 1: week if you didn't take it, and just looking you know,
Speaker 1: both at the number of bets and the amount of
Speaker 1: money that's coming in it is overwhelmingly on the Ravens.
Speaker 1: And if you look at the bettingpros dot com break down,
Speaker 1: eighty five percent of our experts are taking Baltimore. And
Speaker 1: if you look at the top twenty percent the most
Speaker 1: accurate experts, ninety two percent of them are taking Baltimore.
Speaker 1: So again, this is game. The one thing I'll ask
Speaker 1: is do you get worried when you see a line
Speaker 1: like this? Because, I mean, the way you talked about
Speaker 1: it kind of looks like we're looking at the game
Speaker 1: the same way. Do you get a little worried that essentially,
Speaker 1: even after they moved it to three, because it's been
Speaker 1: at three since I think Monday. When we looked at
Speaker 1: it Monday again to look ahead, line was pick them,
Speaker 1: but they opened it at three. There's a ton of
Speaker 1: money coming in still in Baltimore, but it hasn't moved yet.
Speaker 1: Does that ever? Do you ever look at a line
Speaker 1: and say, man, this seems too good to be true,
Speaker 1: maybe I'm missing something and get a little skittish in
Speaker 1: that area.
Speaker 2: I am nervous when that happens. I'm also nervous when
Speaker 2: so many people seem to be having the same thought
Speaker 2: as me on a pick. But at the same time,
Speaker 2: this is just one of those matchups where, like I said,
Speaker 2: my initial reaction is that the Ravens are a significantly
Speaker 2: better team and they're healthier, Like, all this stuff is
Speaker 2: adding up to a point where I just wouldn't feel
Speaker 2: comfortable taking the Rams. I'm not even sure where the
Speaker 2: line would have to be for me to feel really
Speaker 2: queasy about it. But again, because three is essentially it's
Speaker 2: almost to pick them right. It's not quite, but it's
Speaker 2: close enough for teams that are this disparate in my
Speaker 2: mind that I just I don't know where the line
Speaker 2: would have to be for me to feel weird about it.
Speaker 2: But at this point, no, I'm not too worried.
Speaker 1: Now. I'm one hundred percent with you, and I keep
Speaker 1: you know, occasionally I'll look at it, especially, you know,
Speaker 1: whenever you get a bet that so much of the
Speaker 1: public is back, and you get a little nervous because
Speaker 1: you know, you never really want to be shaded with
Speaker 1: the public. But like this past week, you know, the
Speaker 1: books all took a beating this past week, so sometimes
Speaker 1: you know, you you go with the Pats or you
Speaker 1: go with the Saints. To cover the spread and sometimes
Speaker 1: it works out. So I'm in total agreement with you
Speaker 1: on that one. For my first pick again, it's it's
Speaker 1: I'm going to call this the Ravens light. I don't
Speaker 1: necessarily know if you're gonna agree, but for me, I
Speaker 1: feel really really confident in this one, and that is
Speaker 1: even though they're on the road, the Seahawks getting one
Speaker 1: and a half from the Eagles. I mentioned this on
Speaker 1: a Monday show that this struck me as one of
Speaker 1: my favorite lines of the week. I don't feel any
Speaker 1: differently as I've analyzed it as the week has gone on.
Speaker 1: I'm really not sure of the faith that the books
Speaker 1: continue to place in the Eagles here. I mean, I
Speaker 1: get that they easily could have won the game against
Speaker 1: the Pats last week, but since they won the Super Bowl,
Speaker 1: they've essentially been a mediocre team, and that's exactly what
Speaker 1: they are this year. I get that they've dealt with
Speaker 1: an incredible amount of injuries like all year long, right,
Speaker 1: and they played the Pats hard. As I said, they
Speaker 1: easily could have won that game, but they just lack
Speaker 1: the firepower on offense, largely because of their problems at
Speaker 1: the receiver position. To Shan Jackson has effectively missed the
Speaker 1: entire season, and that's a huge deal because his presence
Speaker 1: is as the field stretcher was really going to open
Speaker 1: things off for Carson Wentz. Alshram Jeffrey is still battling injuries.
Speaker 1: I think he's still only doing individual drills, so I'm
Speaker 1: not expecting him to play in this week. Nelson Aguiler
Speaker 1: continues to struggle doing the only thing that a wide
Speaker 1: receiver is supposed to be able to do, and that
Speaker 1: has catched the ball. The receivers rank last in the
Speaker 1: league in yards, second to last and catches, and second
Speaker 1: to last in yards per catch. They've got Zach Ertz
Speaker 1: and Dallas Goddard. There's still threats Jordan Howard can run
Speaker 1: the ball effectively if he plays, but he missed last week.
Speaker 1: It's unclear if he's going to be back this week.
Speaker 1: I think he may have been limited right now. Now
Speaker 1: they've got Lane Johnson in the concussion protocol that's going
Speaker 1: to hit on their offensive line. The Seahawks defense isn't
Speaker 1: overly impressive by any means, but Jadavian Clowney is really
Speaker 1: starting to play extremely well, and I don't think you
Speaker 1: need to be an elite defense to be able to
Speaker 1: slow down the Eagles, who just really lack that big
Speaker 1: play threat. And on the other side of the ball,
Speaker 1: the Eagles look they're coming off a bye. It sounds
Speaker 1: like Tyler Lockett's gonna be able to play. I'm a
Speaker 1: little nervous here because again, he did not practice today.
Speaker 1: We're recording this on Wednesday. He did not practice today.
Speaker 1: Pete Carroll is expressing optimism that he's going to be
Speaker 1: able to play, so I'm penciling him in. Josh Gordon
Speaker 1: gets another week to get acclimated. And really it's Russell Wilson.
Speaker 1: I mean, he's playing at an absolutely elite level, similar
Speaker 1: to Lamar Jackson. The Eagles cannot stop the pass. They
Speaker 1: do have a good run defense. They allow the fourth
Speaker 1: fewest rushing yards per game. That's impressive. Maybe they can
Speaker 1: slow down Chris Carson and they may get Nigel Braden back,
Speaker 1: so that's gonna help their defense overall. But really it's
Speaker 1: about Russell Wilson and what he's able to do. I get,
Speaker 1: you know, it's a West Coast team traveling east, but
Speaker 1: really they're coming off a bye. Under Pete Carroll, they
Speaker 1: won five of their last six games off a bye,
Speaker 1: including the last three, they allowed just seventeen and a
Speaker 1: half points per game coming off of bye. So look,
Speaker 1: if Lockett doesn't play in this one, I like it
Speaker 1: a little less. But to me, again, sort of the
Speaker 1: process that you analyzed, who would I expect to win
Speaker 1: the Seahawks versus the Eagles. It's a little difficult because
Speaker 1: you know, you don't think of the Seahawks really, they're
Speaker 1: not a great team. It's mostly Russell Wilson. But still
Speaker 1: I would expect. I'd expect the Seahawks to win here.
Speaker 1: And so when you've got that, even though they're on
Speaker 1: the road, it's essentially a pick up. I mean under
Speaker 1: three for sure. So for me, I'm gonna go with
Speaker 1: the Seahawks. And I feel pretty good about this one.
Speaker 2: This wasn't one of my best bets, but I'm in
Speaker 2: complete agreement with you here. This is one of the
Speaker 2: picks I wrote up in my rankings article for the week,
Speaker 2: and I love the Seahawks as well. They rank pretty
Speaker 2: equally if you look at VOA, and in both cases,
Speaker 2: the Seahawks rank better both in seasonal DVA and way
Speaker 2: to DVA. They're getting points, they have an MVP candidate
Speaker 2: in Russell Wilson, and even if the Eagles are able
Speaker 2: to stop the running game Chris Carson and the Seahawks
Speaker 2: running game, that might just incentivize the Seahawks to do
Speaker 2: what they should be doing and using Russell Wilson to
Speaker 2: throw the ball more Like what am I missing here?
Speaker 2: I'm totally with you. The part about this matchup that
Speaker 2: I find really fascinating is the forty eight point over under.
Speaker 2: I don't know where to go with that. I think
Speaker 2: it's probably a stay away, but do you have a
Speaker 2: good read one way or the other, because it seems
Speaker 2: like both these two teams want to funnel the opposing
Speaker 2: offense to throw the ball as opposed to run the ball,
Speaker 2: and that would lead me to expect a higher total
Speaker 2: at the end of the game. But I just don't
Speaker 2: know if that's the mindset of these two teams either,
Speaker 2: is to try to run it up like that. I
Speaker 2: want to take the under, but then I looked at
Speaker 2: some of the consensus stuff on betting pros and it
Speaker 2: looks like a lot more people are on the over,
Speaker 2: and I'm not sure if I agree with that. Where
Speaker 2: do you fall on the over? Under in this game.
Speaker 1: It's a stay away from me, and pretty much for
Speaker 1: the reasons that you mentioned, I'm not going to be
Speaker 1: picking it on the betting pros dot Com consensus picks
Speaker 1: or anything like that. I agree with you. This game
Speaker 1: sort of funnels, I think when you look at it
Speaker 1: towards the over right, because you expect neither team is
Speaker 1: going to have particular success running the ball. They're both
Speaker 1: going to have to pass. But I don't really expect
Speaker 1: the Eagles at this point to be able to put
Speaker 1: up significant points. It's just I don't have faith in
Speaker 1: their offense going in, largely because of the injuries. I
Speaker 1: don't expect as On Jeffrey to play in this one.
Speaker 1: That's a huge I mean, you've got whether or not
Speaker 1: you want to call Jordan Matthews or you want to
Speaker 1: call Nelson Aguil or your number one wide receiver, it
Speaker 1: doesn't matter. That should tell you all you need to
Speaker 1: know about the fact that those are the two guys
Speaker 1: in contentionent. So I don't really have that much faith
Speaker 1: in the Eagles being able to put up that many points.
Speaker 1: And the Eagles defense, to be fair, is improving a
Speaker 1: little bit. They're getting a little bit healthier in the secondary.
Speaker 1: They played well against the Pats last week, So it's
Speaker 1: not though a game I feel like it does funnel
Speaker 1: sort of towards the over, but it's not a game
Speaker 1: where I feel particularly confident that it would get there.
Speaker 1: So for me, it's kind of a stay away at
Speaker 1: that number. All right, let's move on to your second
Speaker 1: pick over here? What do you got for number two?
Speaker 2: So I'm going to take the Jets plus three at
Speaker 2: home against the Raiders. And this pick might seem to
Speaker 2: fly in the face of that clad Willian approach I
Speaker 2: outlined for the Ravens pick, because at a base level,
Speaker 2: I would expect the Raiders to win this game out right,
Speaker 2: but in this case, it's one where the extra context
Speaker 2: alters my perception of the matchup a little bit. The
Speaker 2: warm Weather Raiders are favored, but they're traveling east for
Speaker 2: an early start in gold Weather. They're one in three
Speaker 2: in road games already this season, and could slash should
Speaker 2: be looking ahead to a more important road game next
Speaker 2: week against their divisional rival, the Kansas City Chiefs. So
Speaker 2: if you're the type of person who believes in trap games,
Speaker 2: this one fits the bill. Regardless, there are some non
Speaker 2: narrative reasons to like the Jets as well. With their
Speaker 2: second ranked rush defense by DVOA and top ranked defensive
Speaker 2: line by justin lineyards, New York should be able to
Speaker 2: disrupt the identity Oakland is built around Josh Jacobs, and
Speaker 2: on offense, Sam Darnold and company will have the pleasure
Speaker 2: of facing a Raiders team that ranks twenty third and
Speaker 2: passing DVA or passing defense DVA while allowing the seventh
Speaker 2: most passing yards per game and the third most passing
Speaker 2: touchdowns per game. Derek Carr is really going to have
Speaker 2: to step up in a significant way for the Raiders
Speaker 2: to cover. And I'm not a Derek Carr believer, so
Speaker 2: give me the points with the Jets.
Speaker 1: I mean, I think it's brave because as a Jets fan,
Speaker 1: I fear trusting the Jets, and I look, I was
Speaker 1: on them a lot earlier in this season after that
Speaker 1: Cowboys game, who where I backed them as well. Certainly
Speaker 1: they got crushed against the Patriots next week get crushed
Speaker 1: against the Jaguars, So I am a little gunshy, but yeah,
Speaker 1: this is a line where when I looked at it
Speaker 1: on Monday, I said, yikes, it kind of feels like
Speaker 1: this line needs to be a little bit higher here,
Speaker 1: like more like the Raiders laying four and a half
Speaker 1: something like that. But for the reasons that you broke
Speaker 1: down I Hack, this game kind of sets up well
Speaker 1: for the Jets. Like, forget about the fact that Oakland
Speaker 1: is coming east and their history, they don't usually play
Speaker 1: well when they need to come east. But essentially, the
Speaker 1: strength of the Raiders game offensively is their run game.
Speaker 1: That's the one thing that the Jets can really attack,
Speaker 1: and they don't have the wide receivers. You know, Jamal
Speaker 1: Adams is great, but for the most part, the secondary
Speaker 1: for the Jets really struggles with cornerbacks are subpar. But
Speaker 1: you know, the thing about the Raiders is they don't
Speaker 1: really have those elite wide receivers that could take advantage
Speaker 1: of it. Tyrell Williams is fine, but he's battling planter
Speaker 1: fasci itis as he goes through Hunter Renfros Okay, Zay
Speaker 1: Jones isn't really doing anything. Darren Waller is gonna present
Speaker 1: a little bit of a problem. But again, on the
Speaker 1: other side, as you mentioned, really the big thing for
Speaker 1: the Jets is that the offensive line is atrocious, But
Speaker 1: when you're going up against an oak team that really
Speaker 1: struggles to get pressure on the quarterback, I think this
Speaker 1: is an area that the Jets can exploit. So I
Speaker 1: do expect the game to be close. I'm not sure
Speaker 1: whether or not the Jets are going to win, but
Speaker 1: certainly the quote unquote trap game. That is what this says.
Speaker 1: And I will say that the public is backing the
Speaker 1: Raiders as you might expect, but the money is backing
Speaker 1: the Jets, which basically shows you. Usually it's a little
Speaker 1: early to make the conclusion, but it's usually a sign
Speaker 1: that sharpbetters are backing the Jets. And when you look
Speaker 1: again at our breakdown at bettingpros dot com, seventy percent
Speaker 1: are backing the Jets over Oakland. So it looks like
Speaker 1: you've got a lot of support with that bet. Again,
Speaker 1: something that I don't It's not one of the ones
Speaker 1: that I'm super excited about. If I'm forced to pick
Speaker 1: a side, I'll go with the Jets. But I certainly
Speaker 1: get everywhere that you're coming from.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so your bias against the Jets as a Jets
Speaker 2: fan is kind of mirrored by my bias against the Raiders.
Speaker 2: I'm a Bay Area guy. I'm not necessarily a Raiders fan,
Speaker 2: but they're one of the teams that's always on TV
Speaker 2: when I was growing up, and even up until this
Speaker 2: past season. I recently moved, but yeah, when I was
Speaker 2: out there, I saw a lot of Derek Carr and
Speaker 2: I'm just not believer it's not happening.
Speaker 1: Well, it's a travesty then that you and I are
Speaker 1: not going to this game together. But next time they play,
Speaker 1: we'll make sure we'll make it a date. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: go to my second one, which Greg, I can almost
Speaker 1: guarantee you you are not going to like. So I'll
Speaker 1: put that out there right now. Now, I am going
Speaker 1: to admit that I usually when I know we're having
Speaker 1: a podcast, I usually check the lines. I don't know
Speaker 1: four hours in advance. I make a couple of notes,
Speaker 1: I make sure what I want to do, and this one,
Speaker 1: the line has moved since I made the pick, and
Speaker 1: I'm still in not in my favor either, So I'm
Speaker 1: still going to go with it, but I don't like
Speaker 1: it quite as much. And that is the forty nine
Speaker 1: Ers and the Packers now over forty seven and a half.
Speaker 1: It was over forty six and a half at the time,
Speaker 1: I want to go with it. So this is going
Speaker 1: to be an exciting game. I think it's going to
Speaker 1: be high scoring. The forty nine Ers are second in
Speaker 1: scoring offense at twenty nine and a half points per game.
Speaker 1: The Packers are ninth with twenty five points per game.
Speaker 1: Both offenses are playing well right now. There are certainly
Speaker 1: question marks for the forty nine Ers in terms of
Speaker 1: their skill players and injury. It is unclear right now
Speaker 1: if George Kittle is going to make it back for
Speaker 1: this game. Emmanuel Sanders has the last two games with injuries,
Speaker 1: although last I heard he was not on the injury report.
Speaker 1: Matt Breedom may still be out. But really, Kyle Shanahan's
Speaker 1: system is effective enough that they're able to survive even
Speaker 1: without them. And really I think it's because, oddly enough,
Speaker 1: the key to their offense is really Kyle Yushchak, who's
Speaker 1: presence there it kind of transforms the unit. Deebo Samuel
Speaker 1: also battling a little bit of injury, but I do
Speaker 1: expect him to play. He's stepping up, developing into a
Speaker 1: reliable wide receiver. So they have enough on offense to
Speaker 1: get by in their running game, which had been extremely
Speaker 1: effective early on, has not been great over the last
Speaker 1: few games. I mean Tevin Coleman in particular, has not
Speaker 1: looked good. They've averaged seventy four rushing yards per game
Speaker 1: over their last three, but that is obviously where you
Speaker 1: can attack the Packers defense on the ground. They allow
Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty seven rushing yards per game, and again,
Speaker 1: I think us check being in there is going to
Speaker 1: you know, against the team that's particularly weak against the run,
Speaker 1: is going to be able to help them. Now their
Speaker 1: defense is slipping as well. They've allowed twenty six points
Speaker 1: per game over their last three to two of those
Speaker 1: games against the Cardinals. The Kwan Alexander injury really hurts
Speaker 1: their run defense, and that's obviously not a good thing
Speaker 1: when you're going up against the team with both Aaron
Speaker 1: Jones and Jamal Williams. D Ford also entered his hamstring,
Speaker 1: so he may need to miss this game. That's going
Speaker 1: to put some pressure on the pass rush. So I
Speaker 1: see Aaron Rodgers and company being able to put up now.
Speaker 1: I said when I started this, I said, Greg, You're
Speaker 1: not going to like this pick. I think because they're
Speaker 1: going to say Dan everything you're saying sounds like it's
Speaker 1: going to lead to a lot of rushing attempts, and
Speaker 1: that is going to mean that it's going to eat
Speaker 1: up the clock and that favors the under That's a
Speaker 1: good point, Greg, I respect your opinion, but for me,
Speaker 1: I don't really expect this to be a game where
Speaker 1: they're just going to run, run, run the entire time.
Speaker 1: I think that it's just going to be a game
Speaker 1: where both teams are going to have success using the run,
Speaker 1: and I think that that is going to set up
Speaker 1: a lot of play action passing and that they're going
Speaker 1: to be able to score relatively quickly when they need to.
Speaker 1: In other words, I don't expect this to be a
Speaker 1: game or they're just going to run down the field
Speaker 1: and have these long seven to eight minute drives. I
Speaker 1: think they're just going to be so effective that it's
Speaker 1: going to open up the pass. The forty nine Ers
Speaker 1: don't have a cornerback that can hang with DeVonta Adams
Speaker 1: at this point, and the Packers' cornerbacks are a very
Speaker 1: good their defense. Pass defense has been slipping a little bit,
Speaker 1: but it's not as if the forty nine Ers have
Speaker 1: these dominant wide receivers. It's much more about their scheme.
Speaker 1: So I think both teams are going to be able
Speaker 1: to move the ball well. I think this is a
Speaker 1: primetime game. I think both teams are going to get
Speaker 1: up for a Forty seven and a half is a
Speaker 1: little higher for me than I liked it more at
Speaker 1: forty six and a half. But my guest, Greg, and
Speaker 1: you can correct me if I'm wrong, is that you
Speaker 1: would have liked the under at forty six and a half.
Speaker 2: Uh not necessarily. I probably would have just stayed away altogether.
Speaker 2: The Niners are my team. They're the one that I
Speaker 2: tend to be a little less rational about at times.
Speaker 2: So I don't have a good feeling for this game,
Speaker 2: and if anything, I would be looking at the Green
Speaker 2: Bay plus three side of this contest. But if I
Speaker 2: were going to argue against the over in this game one,
Speaker 2: you already laid it out. The line has moved. I
Speaker 2: think it started even lower at forty six, then went
Speaker 2: to forty six and a half, and now is it
Speaker 2: what did you say, forty seven and a half?
Speaker 1: Forty seven and a half.
Speaker 2: So if you got in early, I think that it
Speaker 2: seems like you made the right call based upon the
Speaker 2: action that we've seen in that line movement. But I
Speaker 2: worry about the running aspect of the matchup, like you've
Speaker 2: talked about. If you look at situation neutral pace, the
Speaker 2: Niners ranked fourteenth of the league, but the Packers rank
Speaker 2: all the way down to twenty seventh. These teams like
Speaker 2: to slow it down a little bit. I'm a little
Speaker 2: worried about all the injuries that the Niners have. Deebo
Speaker 2: Samuel is missing practice now, which isn't good. Manuel Sanders
Speaker 2: was already limited, and we still don't know about Kittle
Speaker 2: Matt Brada. I worry that the Niners might not have
Speaker 2: the playmakers to make this game or to hit the
Speaker 2: over in this game, even if they have Kyle yuscheck back.
Speaker 2: And I agree with you about yus check He is
Speaker 2: a very integral part and unheralded aspect of that offense.
Speaker 2: But I do like the over overall, but I would
Speaker 2: not bet it with any sort of confidence.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and when you're looking at the amount of money
Speaker 1: that has come in on the over, it's what I'm
Speaker 1: seeing is ninety six percent of the money's coming on there.
Speaker 1: But that is now, it's at forty seven and a
Speaker 1: half that's on ninety six at over forty seven and
Speaker 1: a half, which again at forty six and a half,
Speaker 1: I was like, okay, I like it, and it has
Speaker 1: been tread tog up forty seven and a half even
Speaker 1: I'm going to admit that I'm a little squeischy about it,
Speaker 1: but I still think in the end, you know, I
Speaker 1: expect Samuel to play and I expect Sanders to play.
Speaker 1: So as long as it isn't they've got nothing on offense.
Speaker 1: I do think that they're going to be able to
Speaker 1: move the ball, and I think both teams are going
Speaker 1: to put up points. Here. Let's go on to your
Speaker 1: third pick. What do you got?
Speaker 2: So my third pick is going to be Miami plus
Speaker 2: ten and a half at Cleveland. The Browns defensive lineman
Speaker 2: Olivier Vernon is questionable for this game, and Cleveland is
Speaker 2: already going to be missing Miles Garrett, Morgan Burnett, and
Speaker 2: Larry Ogunjobi from their defense. So I think Miami should
Speaker 2: have a much easier time generating offense than we might
Speaker 2: have expected, say a week ago. Maybe you want to
Speaker 2: play the narrative card and say that the incident in
Speaker 2: the Steelers Browns game last week will help galvin ie
Speaker 2: and focus the Browns for their stretch run. And I
Speaker 2: can buy that argument for predicting a win, especially with
Speaker 2: a long week to prepare coming off Thursday night football,
Speaker 2: but predicting a win by eleven or more, I'm a
Speaker 2: little skeptical. So I'm taking the points here with Miami.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't hate it by any means. It's not
Speaker 1: one of my best bets. But anytime you're getting double digits,
Speaker 1: you know, you just have to take a real close
Speaker 1: look at the underdog. The Browns just you know, I
Speaker 1: know that they've obviously you know, they're playing a little
Speaker 1: bit better. I do think that Kareem Hunt being back,
Speaker 1: and specifically, you know, their offense, when they're playing both
Speaker 1: Hunt and Chubb on the field at the same time,
Speaker 1: it really does seem to be working for them and
Speaker 1: opening up what they want to do. But yeah, I
Speaker 1: don't think that they're really just you know, an overwhelming
Speaker 1: team who's going to be able to stomp all over
Speaker 1: the Dolphins. And again, you know, the Dolphins were one
Speaker 1: of the best covering teams you know, in the game
Speaker 1: for a while, and they certainly still have a little
Speaker 1: bit of juice they're playing hard. That tank for two
Speaker 1: of things probably gone at this point, you know, obviously
Speaker 1: because tuus injury and factors. They've won two games anyway,
Speaker 1: They're never going to beat the Bengals for that pick regardless.
Speaker 1: So they're actually playing pretty hard despite all the injuries,
Speaker 1: despite the fact that klein Blage is probably one of
Speaker 1: the worst running backs in the history of football. So
Speaker 1: I really don't hate it here. I'm good to go
Speaker 1: with a spread that that's big, particularly with Garrett out,
Speaker 1: which is a big deal. I'll you know, just going
Speaker 1: to affect their pass rush.
Speaker 2: So if I had to poke holes in my own
Speaker 2: pick here, the biggest fear I have is Odell Beckham
Speaker 2: Junior just going nuclear in this matchup because the targets
Speaker 2: have been there. He's getting fed week after week, and
Speaker 2: now he gets to face a Miami defense that has
Speaker 2: the worst pass rush in the league by adjusted lineyards
Speaker 2: or Byjustin zach rate and the worst passing defense by
Speaker 2: DV away. So this is one of those situations that
Speaker 2: seems to line up really well for the passing game,
Speaker 2: and Baker Mayfield is, you know, maybe starting to turn
Speaker 2: it around if he connects on a couple of those
Speaker 2: deep balls to Odell Beckham Junior, maybe they're able just
Speaker 2: to bury the Dolphins. But with that said, all those
Speaker 2: injuries on defense for the Browns really leads me to
Speaker 2: a point where I think that if the Browns get up,
Speaker 2: big Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to be able to potentially
Speaker 2: back to recover this thing, even if things go completely haywire.
Speaker 2: So no matter how you slice it, I just like
Speaker 2: the way things are lining up for Miami mostly based
Speaker 2: upon those injuries on the defensive side of the ball
Speaker 2: for the Browns.
Speaker 1: That's funny that you mentioned Odell Beckham Junior, because I
Speaker 1: have a feeling we might be hearing about him again
Speaker 1: later in the show when we get to another segment
Speaker 1: about our top prop. But I will save it for
Speaker 1: them for my third pick, I'm going to be holding
Speaker 1: my nose really really tight and taking the Bengals. Getting
Speaker 1: six and a half from the Steelers. I said I
Speaker 1: was not going to do this anymore, that I was
Speaker 1: totally done backing the Bengals, but I every time they
Speaker 1: think I'm out, they pull me back in. I wanted
Speaker 1: the seven at six and a half, I obviously like
Speaker 1: it a little less, but I just have a feeling
Speaker 1: that this is the first win. There's nothing good about
Speaker 1: the Bengals right now. I admit they are poorly coached,
Speaker 1: they are playing without energy, but they can still cover
Speaker 1: a point spread every once in a while. And really
Speaker 1: what it comes down to is, I'm not exactly sure
Speaker 1: how the Steelers are going to move the football in
Speaker 1: this game. I mean, I'll give you that the Bengals
Speaker 1: defense is really terrible. They're by far the worst in
Speaker 1: the league against the run. They have absolutely no pass rush.
Speaker 1: They just lost ray kerk Pactrick. But still, if you
Speaker 1: and I went out there and we just grabbed nine
Speaker 1: other guys off the street, we really might be able
Speaker 1: to stop the Steelers offense. At this point, They're gonna
Speaker 1: be down James Connor, They're gonna be down Juju Smith, Schuster.
Speaker 1: Apparently Deante Johnson may play in this one. I hope,
Speaker 1: I really hope not. In the end. I still kind
Speaker 1: of think they're gonna wind up holding them out. But
Speaker 1: there are positive reports today. So what's their offense like
Speaker 1: on a good day. I mean, they averaged three and
Speaker 1: a half yards per carry on the ground. Their receivers
Speaker 1: are averaging nine point nine yards per reception. The offense
Speaker 1: has scored eighteen touchdowns in ten games, so great. Rather
Speaker 1: than James Connor, we'll roll with Benny Snell and Jaylen
Speaker 1: Samuels instead of Juju Smith Schuster and probably Dante Johnson.
Speaker 1: Let's go with Dion Kin out there. And also let's
Speaker 1: lose our Pro Bowl center Markue's pouncy because of the
Speaker 1: three game suspension. So again, the Bengals are bad, but
Speaker 1: you're gonna see a lot of targets for Tyler Boyd
Speaker 1: in this one. After he complained Joe Mixon has been
Speaker 1: getting a little more work. I think they'll be able
Speaker 1: to kind of smell a win here against the Steelers
Speaker 1: and keep it close with the under of thirty nine too,
Speaker 1: by the way, I mean, I'd totally be fine with that,
Speaker 1: but for now, I'm gonna hold my nails and go
Speaker 1: with the Bengals getting six and a half from the Steelers.
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is actually one of my picks as well.
Speaker 2: It's definitely not high enough confidence for me to call
Speaker 2: it a best bet, but I like the Bengals. The
Speaker 2: under I think is a better bet here. I think
Speaker 2: you kind of danced your way around that all of
Speaker 2: it to kind of close with that, and I think
Speaker 2: that's really the angle to shoot from here. If you
Speaker 2: look at the previous matchup, I think it finished twenty
Speaker 2: seven to three in favor of the Steelers, and that
Speaker 2: was a much more complete Steelers team at that point,
Speaker 2: still only thirty points scored. So I would much prefer
Speaker 2: to take the under in this game rather than take
Speaker 2: the Bengals. But we're not talking about a prolific Pittsburgh team,
Speaker 2: and especially on offense like Mason Rudolph was so so
Speaker 2: bad last week, and that's all been kind of swippt
Speaker 2: under the rug based upon the incident at the end
Speaker 2: of the game. But the Steelers' average point differential is
Speaker 2: negative for the season, just barely. They've scored about twenty
Speaker 2: points per game. They've given up about twenty points per game.
Speaker 2: Asking them to cover a touchdown spread is pretty steve
Speaker 2: considering all those injuries that you mentioned on the offensive
Speaker 2: side of the ball. I grant that it is against
Speaker 2: the Bengals, though, and so there is that risk there.
Speaker 2: I don't think you can take this with a ton
Speaker 2: of confidence, but I agree with you. I think the
Speaker 2: Bengals are the correct bet if you have to pick
Speaker 2: between these two teams against the spread, but I do
Speaker 2: like the under bet more. Yeah.
Speaker 1: No, I'm probably gonna be taking both of them this
Speaker 1: week because that is the type of game. And really,
Speaker 1: the one thing that worries me a little bit is
Speaker 1: the threat of a defensive score for the Steelers, who, again,
Speaker 1: since Minka Fitzpatrick has gotten there, they've been very very solid,
Speaker 1: and Ryan Finley's just not really getting it done, So
Speaker 1: that is something that worries me. But I'll probably go
Speaker 1: with both when we're taking them on the betting pros
Speaker 1: dot Com consensus odds. So, all right, Greg, you're gonna
Speaker 1: take the Jets getting three from the Raiders, the Ravens
Speaker 1: giving three I believe to the Rams, and the Dolphins
Speaker 1: getting ten and a half from the Browns. Right, that's right.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the Seahawks getting one and a half
Speaker 1: from the Eagles, the forty nine Ers and the Packers
Speaker 1: over forty seven and a half a little more reluctantly
Speaker 1: than I was at forty six and a half, and
Speaker 1: the Bengals getting six and a half from the Steelers,
Speaker 1: which I love and I'm told confident and so don't
Speaker 1: anybody worry about that. Now. Before we move on to
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Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler. All right, Greg, let's move on
Speaker 1: to it's a trap where we list the line we
Speaker 1: are avoiding. What do you got?
Speaker 2: So the Giants in the Bay are each three and
Speaker 2: seven against the spread so far this year. So what's
Speaker 2: the opposite of an immovable force meets an unstoppable object? Right,
Speaker 2: That's what we're looking at here. If you're picking this
Speaker 2: game Giants at Bears, you're dancing with a Variansteavil. Both
Speaker 2: teams feature volatile quarterback situations. Daniel Jones is a turnover machine,
Speaker 2: while Chicago is stuck between Mitchell Trubisky and Chase Daniel.
Speaker 2: Can you take any of those passers with confidence? Because
Speaker 2: I cannot. The only standout unit in this matchup is
Speaker 2: the Bears defense, which ranks fourth in DVA. If the
Speaker 2: line were three, or maybe three and a half, I'd
Speaker 2: feel a lot better about leaning on Chicago's defense. But
Speaker 2: good defenses help you win small, not big, So laying
Speaker 2: six and a half points here is a bit of
Speaker 2: a deal breaker. Maybe the Bears can turn a takeaway
Speaker 2: into points and cover, but counting on that sort of
Speaker 2: outcome is risky, if not just completely negligent with your
Speaker 2: betting bankroll. I'm probably gonna take the Giants in pools
Speaker 2: where I'm forced to make a pick, but this game
Speaker 2: is ultimately just to stay away from me.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I could not agree more. I mean, especially because
Speaker 1: I don't really know what you're going to be able
Speaker 1: to expect to see from the Bears defense, because if
Speaker 1: you're that defense, you've just got to be so beaten
Speaker 1: down right now, right, I mean, you play hard every
Speaker 1: single week, you put up a great effort against the Rams,
Speaker 1: and just you know, you know that there's no way
Speaker 1: that Mitchell Trubisky is going to be able to put
Speaker 1: up points other than that one random game against the Lions.
Speaker 1: So you know, especially with that, you could see the
Speaker 1: Bears coming out and doing absolutely nothing at all, even
Speaker 1: though you know, again I do expect them to, as
Speaker 1: they have all season, have a solid defensive effort, but
Speaker 1: with where their psyche is right now, I would be
Speaker 1: just concerned about getting involved in any way in this game.
Speaker 1: So it's certainly so go ahead.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So what do you think is the value of
Speaker 2: Chase Daniels starting for this team? Potentially because you've talked
Speaker 2: about the negative impact that Cherubisky has on this team psyche,
Speaker 2: and I totally agree with you. Like they looked completely
Speaker 2: defeated last week, and I'm wondering, if they have a
Speaker 2: new quarterback under center, somebody who's just a little bit
Speaker 2: more competent, a little bit more polished, does that inspire
Speaker 2: the team to play harder at all? It does that matter,
Speaker 2: I think ultimately, because that sort of question, the answer
Speaker 2: to that is so unknowable. That's another reason why I
Speaker 2: would stay away from this game. But I'm curious what
Speaker 2: you think about that sort of situation where the team
Speaker 2: might be more motivated based upon a change at quarterback
Speaker 2: like this.
Speaker 1: So I think it can't be a negative because I
Speaker 1: really think right now, with Trubisky back there, the defense
Speaker 1: has just got to be like, I mean, what are
Speaker 1: we going to do at this point? I mean, you know,
Speaker 1: it's like when the Ravens, when they were so elite,
Speaker 1: they were like, just just don't turn the ball over.
Speaker 1: You know, Trent Dilferd will take care of it for you.
Speaker 1: We'll make sure we win. I could see it being
Speaker 1: sort of somewhere kind of like that, And with Daniel
Speaker 1: stepping in, I could see them basically being like, Okay,
Speaker 1: all right, we've got at least some hope. Perhaps, But
Speaker 1: I also think that it's possible that they're just done, man.
Speaker 1: I mean, they're obviously out of playoff contention essentially at
Speaker 1: this point, They've got nothing going on. So it wouldn't
Speaker 1: be something where I'd be like, Okay, if Daniel's coming in,
Speaker 1: I feel a lot more confident that the defense is
Speaker 1: going to play better. I would just be like, maybe
Speaker 1: maybe it would be, but I really would have no
Speaker 1: real sense for it, you know what I'm saying?
Speaker 2: Yeah, total, As.
Speaker 1: For me, I'm out on the Bucks getting four and
Speaker 1: a half from the Falcons. Is this just am I
Speaker 1: just supposed to accept now that the Falcons, who were
Speaker 1: just this doormat of the NFL, suddenly have a dominant
Speaker 1: defensive unit like they've showed the last two games. I mean,
Speaker 1: they were the worst team in football. Then they trade
Speaker 1: Mohammed Sanu and they going a bye, and then suddenly
Speaker 1: everything's fixed and they're still almost surely down Austin Hooper,
Speaker 1: they're probably down DeVonta Freeman. Still, I'm just not ready
Speaker 1: to trust them at this point because I don't feel
Speaker 1: like I have any idea who they actually are. And
Speaker 1: although I'm getting closer to feeling comfortable betting against the Bucks,
Speaker 1: I'm still not really there yet. They have two of
Speaker 1: the best receivers in the game. They can still stop
Speaker 1: the run as well as anyone. It's really about Jameis Winston,
Speaker 1: and even if you feel like they might cover, the
Speaker 1: chances of this back breaking late in the game turnover
Speaker 1: are way to gate. It's just a game where I
Speaker 1: don't really trust that the Falcons are as good as
Speaker 1: they've shown, and I really don't trust the Bucks at all.
Speaker 1: So it's a game that I'm staying far away from.
Speaker 2: I actually like the Buccaneers in this game. I think
Speaker 2: that this line is completely fueled by recency bias based
Speaker 2: upon those two big wins from Atlanta. If you look
Speaker 2: at the way this matchup stacks up, the Bucks are
Speaker 2: really lined up well to succeed against the Falcons defense.
Speaker 2: Like the Falcons defense strength has been against the run,
Speaker 2: but Tampa Bay has no interest in running the ball.
Speaker 2: And ultimately I feel like the line should be maybe
Speaker 2: three to three and a half. But at four and
Speaker 2: a half, just the doors. The back door is going
Speaker 2: to be opened all day for Jamis Winston, Chris Godwin,
Speaker 2: Mike Evans, Cameron Braid, maybe rip O J. Howard, but
Speaker 2: This is one of those lines that I think is
Speaker 2: just too good to be true, almost or I don't know,
Speaker 2: it's I just have no confidence in the Falcons, and
Speaker 2: they've proven me wrong in the past two weeks. I
Speaker 2: bet against the both times, and that's not been great
Speaker 2: for me. But I feel like the buck has to
Speaker 2: stop somewhere, and against a prolific passing offense like the Bucks,
Speaker 2: I think it might be this might be the week
Speaker 2: to kind of zig when everyone else isagging.
Speaker 1: I totally get that, and I'm totally not by it
Speaker 1: because there's just no way that I'm going to feel
Speaker 1: comfortable enough going with Winston, who, by the way, remember
Speaker 1: was limping pretty heavily. I get that they're kind of,
Speaker 1: you know, poo pooing that injury, but he was limping
Speaker 1: pretty heavily at the end of last week. It's just
Speaker 1: not a game where I feel like they have a
Speaker 1: way of breaking your heart. They've kind of done it
Speaker 1: all year, you know, they did it against the Seahawks
Speaker 1: that time, where it looked like an obvious cover at
Speaker 1: the very least of not a win for them, and
Speaker 1: they just find a way to blow. But I get
Speaker 1: it here. I'm not going to take issue with your analysis.
Speaker 1: It's more just something that I'm too terrified here to
Speaker 1: back the Bucks. So for you, you are avoiding the
Speaker 1: Bears laying six and a half to the Giants. I'm
Speaker 1: avoiding the Falcons laying four and a half to the Bucks. Now,
Speaker 1: before we keep going, I want to remind everyone about
Speaker 1: our giveaway. It is a signed Odell Beckham Junior Cleveland
Speaker 1: Brown's helmet. Our contest is running through November thirtieth. Here
Speaker 1: you can go to bettingpros dot com slash contest for
Speaker 1: more details, but to enter, just leave a review for
Speaker 1: the show on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher and send the
Speaker 1: screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com.
Speaker 1: And an entry into any contest gets you automatically entered
Speaker 1: into all future contests. So even if you're mad at
Speaker 1: Odell Beckham because he hasn't been very good this year,
Speaker 1: you'll probably want to be entered for our next giveaway. Anyway. Now,
Speaker 1: the Beckham helmet, all of our signed helmets, they come
Speaker 1: from Pristine Auction, where they offer a ton of great
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Speaker 1: i n E auction dot com. All right, Greg, let's
Speaker 1: finish up with our top prop where we each list
Speaker 1: our favorite prop. Bet go ahead.
Speaker 2: So you mentioned not stepping on your Odell Beckham junior prop.
Speaker 2: I had to bite my tongue when you talked about
Speaker 2: how good Darren Waller was going to be against the
Speaker 2: Jets this week. And as much as I like the
Speaker 2: Jets to cover that spread, I'm taking Darren Waller to
Speaker 2: go over fifty receiving yards at minus two fifty. The
Speaker 2: Jets have allowed the fourth views receiving yards to tight ends.
Speaker 2: But here's a select list of the top tight ends
Speaker 2: they faced through eleven weeks. Week one, the Immortal Tommy Sweeney.
Speaker 2: I don't even know if that's a real person. Thirty
Speaker 2: five yards. Week two, Demitrius Harris, week three, Ryan Izzo
Speaker 2: week seven, Ben Watson week eight, Set the Valve week ten,
Speaker 2: rtt Ellison, Week eleven, Jeremy Sprinkle and here are the
Speaker 2: top tens from and here are the top tight ends
Speaker 2: from the weeks that I skipped. Weeks five, zach Ertz,
Speaker 2: Dallas Goddard combined for sixty eight yards. Week six, Jason
Speaker 2: Witten fifty seven yards, Week nine, Mikaseeki ninety five yards.
Speaker 2: So when the Jets have faced teams with more heavily
Speaker 2: targeted tight ends, those players haven't really had any issue
Speaker 2: hitting fifty plus yards. And because I already believe that
Speaker 2: the Jets are a good bet to cover and perhaps
Speaker 2: even win outright against the Raiders, that would mean the
Speaker 2: Raiders are going to have to throw in this game.
Speaker 2: That means more passes to Darren Waller, And so give
Speaker 2: me Waller plus fifty or more receiving yards at minus
Speaker 2: two to fifty.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean minus two fifty is obviously big number,
Speaker 1: but oh yeah, he's going way over this one absolutely.
Speaker 1: By the way, the point that you made, I know
Speaker 1: this is a betting show, but you know you and
Speaker 1: I both also do fantasy analysis. So I will say
Speaker 1: the one thing is when you look at you know,
Speaker 1: points allowed to opposing tight ends and stuff like that,
Speaker 1: you should always consider who the opponents are. Because it's
Speaker 1: the point you just made. You know, the Jets may
Speaker 1: look good on the surface, generally in fantasy and generally
Speaker 1: against opposing tight ends. But they obviously have not faced
Speaker 1: a murderer's row, and anytime they do face anyone of
Speaker 1: remote talent, if you want to call Micah sicky, that
Speaker 1: then they struggle against them. So Waller here, I completely agree.
Speaker 1: I think he's gonna have a big game. And it's
Speaker 1: fifty yards. I mean, that's something that I think you're
Speaker 1: not gonna be too worried. You're not gonna be sweating
Speaker 1: over too much as the game goes along. I you know,
Speaker 1: I mentioned what it might be as you referenced, And
Speaker 1: for my top prop, I'm gonna go with Odell Beckham
Speaker 1: Junior over one hundred receiving yards at minus one oh five.
Speaker 1: So it's it's not the best odds, but this is
Speaker 1: the week Greg against the Dolphins. This is the week
Speaker 1: you basically laid it all out earlier. He's top one
Speaker 1: hundred yards just twice the entire season. It hasn't been pretty.
Speaker 1: He's got twenty two targets, though over the last two
Speaker 1: games there's no Aan Howard anymore. The Browns are going
Speaker 1: to win this game pretty easily, I think, I mean,
Speaker 1: although they may not cover as you mentioned, you know,
Speaker 1: they want Beckham happy, they need them happy. They're trying
Speaker 1: to make them happy. Twenty two targets just nine receptions.
Speaker 1: Some of that is on Baker, but his efficiency is
Speaker 1: going to be much better in this game. This is
Speaker 1: just it. This is a get right game for Beckham.
Speaker 1: They're a get right game for teams. There are get
Speaker 1: right games for players. This is one for the player,
Speaker 1: without question. I'm very confident in this one. Odell Beckham
Speaker 1: Junior going over one hundred receiving yards. I know you're
Speaker 1: with me, right, Oh.
Speaker 2: I totally am. And we laid out the case earlier.
Speaker 2: My biggest fear would be that maybe he gets one
Speaker 2: big score earlier in the game and then the Dolphins
Speaker 2: just aren't able to do anything and the Browns lean
Speaker 2: on Nick Chubb gareem hunt for the rest of the game.
Speaker 2: I don't necessarily see that happening, though. I think that they,
Speaker 2: like you said, they want to make Beckham happy and
Speaker 2: this is the perfect matchup just to feed him over
Speaker 2: and over again. And that's my biggest fear with picking
Speaker 2: Miami earlier. And I mean it's actually kind of a
Speaker 2: good hedge, to be honest.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And really realistically. I think that you know, normally
Speaker 1: a team gets ahead and they just sort of rely
Speaker 1: on their run game. But you know they run Chubb heavily,
Speaker 1: and they rely generally heavily. I think this is a
Speaker 1: game where even if they get ahead, they're just gonna
Speaker 1: try to basically be like, let's work out some kinks here, right,
Speaker 1: we haven't been efficient with Beckham. Let's make them happy.
Speaker 1: Let's have a huge game. So for me, I think
Speaker 1: he's going to sail over this. I really have very
Speaker 1: little hesitation about it for all the reasons we discussed.
Speaker 1: All Right, that's going to do it for today's show.
Speaker 1: Thanks again for joining me. Greg. Remind everyone where they
Speaker 1: can find more of you in your work.
Speaker 2: So I'm on Twitter at Greg Sauce and you can
Speaker 2: find my work at two qbs dot com, where I
Speaker 2: do weekly fantasy rankings, picks against the Spread, the Games,
Speaker 2: the Gameplrobotics Spreadsheet, and I do the most accurate podcast
Speaker 2: once a week over at four for four dot com.
Speaker 2: On Mondays, I do a weekly recap and waver wire
Speaker 2: show for them, So come check it out. Follow me
Speaker 2: on Twitter and thanks for having me Dan.
Speaker 1: Yeah, my pleasure again, Greg, is one of our most
Speaker 1: accurate experts over at bettingpros dot com. He is also
Speaker 1: an extremely accurate fantasy experts, so go ahead and follow him.
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Speaker 1: your wagers this weekend, we'll be back breaking down the
Speaker 1: early lines for week thirteen on Monday