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Speaker 1: Hey there everyone, Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast,

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Speaker 1: brought to you by bet MGM. I am your host,

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Speaker 1: Dan Harris and you can find me on Twitter at

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Speaker 1: Dan Harris Ady. It is time to break down some

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Speaker 1: of our favorite and our least favorite bets for the

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Speaker 1: Week twelve NFL Slate. And with me to talk about

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Speaker 1: it all is Greg Smith, co founder of two qbs

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Speaker 1: dot com and a writer and podcaster over at four

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Speaker 1: for four dot com. You can find him on Twitter

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Speaker 1: at Greg Sauce. Greg. How's it going good?

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Speaker 2: Dan? How are you?

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Speaker 1: Man?

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Speaker 2: I'm doing great.

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Speaker 1: I'm doing really well. Now if I recall, we didn't

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Speaker 1: do that great on our first show. Is that right?

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Speaker 1: Am I making that up?

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Speaker 2: I find you are correct?

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Speaker 1: Week?

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Speaker 2: You are correct. But I'm coming off a really hot

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Speaker 2: Week eleven where I nailed most of my picks. So

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Speaker 2: I'm just wincing an anticipation of the swing back at

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Speaker 2: this point.

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Speaker 1: Oh boy, Well, hopefully we can keep the good times going.

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Speaker 1: I also had a really good week. And again, guys,

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Speaker 1: Greg is a great guy to have on this show,

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Speaker 1: because although he had a rough way the time we

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Speaker 1: recorded several weeks ago, at this point he is the

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Speaker 1: thirteenth most accurate expert over at bettingpros dot com. So

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Speaker 1: I have a feeling that today is going to be

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Speaker 1: a good one. Now, as usual, on our second show

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Speaker 1: of the week, we are going to be breaking down

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Speaker 1: three of our favorite bets of the week. We'll give

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Speaker 1: you a bet to avoid, and then we're going to

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Speaker 1: give you one prop bet that we're interested in. So

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Speaker 1: before we get into it, let's, as always, take a

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Speaker 1: very quick look at what happened last week during our

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Speaker 1: pick show. I hit on the Bears in the Rams

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Speaker 1: under thirty nine and a half, the Bills laying six

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Speaker 1: and a half to the Dolphins, and Joe Mixon going

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Speaker 1: over seventy five rushing yards for my top prop. My

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Speaker 1: only miss was on the Raiders and the Bengals over

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Speaker 1: forty nine, which they did not come close to. Our

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Speaker 1: guest Andrew Kayley, had a good week two. He hit

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Speaker 1: on the Jets getting one and a half from the Redskins,

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Speaker 1: the Pats length three and a half to the Eagles,

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Speaker 1: and Josh Jacob's going over one hundred yards rushing. His

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Speaker 1: only miss was on the Chiefs and the Chargers over

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Speaker 1: fifty two, which like my bet did not come close,

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Speaker 1: So we've got some work to do here, Greg, But

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Speaker 1: as I said, we're both coming off good weeks. Greg's

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Speaker 1: one of the most accurate experts as a whole on

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Speaker 1: the year, so I think it's going to be good.

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Speaker 1: Let's get started here with our pick six, where will

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Speaker 1: each list three of our best bets for the weekend.

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Speaker 1: Once you start us off.

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Speaker 2: I'm going with the Ravens minus three at Los Angeles.

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Speaker 2: And I want to kind of start off this with

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Speaker 2: a bit of a thought experiment, like, Dan, what is

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Speaker 2: your initial consideration for picking a game almost before you

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Speaker 2: see the line? And I know for me, I look,

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Speaker 2: the first question I asked myself is who I would

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Speaker 2: expect to win outright without the context of the spread,

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Speaker 2: without any of that stuff. And this kind of this

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Speaker 2: approach stems from the thin slicing method that was popularized

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Speaker 2: by Malcolm Gladwell's book Blink. If you strip away the

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Speaker 2: minutia and you trust your intuition, your instinct, got feeling,

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Speaker 2: whatever you want to call it, you're left with that

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Speaker 2: first impression. And you might have heard, you know, when

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Speaker 2: you're training for multiple choice tests when you were a kid,

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Speaker 2: the first instinct you have is usually correct, and I

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Speaker 2: think that's the way I'm looking at this line for Baltimore.

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Speaker 2: Once I have that baseline read of who I think

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Speaker 2: is going to win a given matchup, Like I think

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Speaker 2: the Ravens are a better team than the Rams, so

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Speaker 2: I'm going to pick them here, then I think you

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Speaker 2: can start to work backward and test it against the

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Speaker 2: context of the matchup. You know who's home, who's away?

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Speaker 2: Does that matter? How do the recent injuries impact the matchup?

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Speaker 2: What's the spread of the matchup? And the smaller the spread,

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Speaker 2: the more likely I am to trust in that initial

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Speaker 2: who will win judgment and treat the game like a

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Speaker 2: pick them when I ultimately make my selection. So in

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Speaker 2: the case of Rams Ravens, the line is small enough

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Speaker 2: that I'm pretty confident just taking Baltimore. They're simply the

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Speaker 2: better team right now. They rank second in DVA and

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Speaker 2: weighted DVA, the Rams ranked twelfth and DVA fourteenth and

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Speaker 2: waited DVA and those weighted numbers from Football Outsiders put

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Speaker 2: more emphasis on recent play, So that tells us that

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Speaker 2: the Rams are actually worse in recent weeks than they

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Speaker 2: have been on the season. And if you've been watching

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Speaker 2: the Rams. This should come as no surprise, right. LA's

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Speaker 2: primary strength at this point is on defense, where they

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Speaker 2: rank eighth in DVA. The Rams are particularly strong along

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Speaker 2: the defensive line, where Aaron Donald's impact cannot be understated.

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Speaker 2: He is an amazing player. But the Ravens running game

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Speaker 2: should be able to fight back in the trenches thanks

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Speaker 2: to an offensive line that ranks fifth and justin lineyards.

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Speaker 2: And meanwhile, that Rams pass rush I think is going

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Speaker 2: to be mitigated by Lamar Jackson's otherworldly ability to escape pressure,

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Speaker 2: run for first downs, and more all that good stuff.

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Speaker 2: On the other side of the ball, the Ravens defense

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Speaker 2: is only getting better. They ranked tenth in defensive DVA

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Speaker 2: on the season, but eighth and waited DVA. Jared Goff

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Speaker 2: is typically better at home, but considering all the injuries

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Speaker 2: his offenses dealing with along the line and a wide receiver,

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Speaker 2: I just don't really see a phase of the game

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Speaker 2: in this matchup where the Rams have an advantage. So

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Speaker 2: give me the Ravens minus three on the road.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, if you weren't taking this, this would definitely be

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Speaker 1: my number one pick. We talked about it on Monday

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Speaker 1: Show where we were just crazy Now, look, I get it.

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Speaker 1: The look ahead line here was a pick em right,

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Speaker 1: so it's moved three points off that. That's a pretty

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Speaker 1: significant move from the look ahead line. I get it,

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Speaker 1: but I don't understand any Like I'm trying to play

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Speaker 1: this game out in my head a million different ways,

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Speaker 1: it's really difficult for me to see a scenario where

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Speaker 1: the Ravens obviously not only win but also covered. They

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Speaker 1: are just by far the superior team right now. They

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Speaker 1: are clicking on all cylinders absolutely. Lamar Jackson is certainly

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Speaker 1: either the MVP, maybe the runner up to Christian McCaffrey

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Speaker 1: or Russell Wilson, but probably the MVP. He's playing at

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Speaker 1: an absolutely elite level. And you hit on it is

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Speaker 1: that the defense really wasn't that great to start, and

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Speaker 1: you know, I get that when they lost Brandon Williams,

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Speaker 1: they rush defense wasn't that great. They had injuries at cornerback,

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Speaker 1: but they're pretty much getting healthy everywhere and they're playing

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Speaker 1: exceptionally well. And on the other side of the ball,

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Speaker 1: the Rams are just look at defense, you mentioned it.

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Speaker 1: I mean, they're solid, for sure, but it's nothing Lamar

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Speaker 1: Jackson can't beat. But look their offensive line right now

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Speaker 1: is a joke, and it wasn't good to begin the

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Speaker 1: year right even when they were all healthy, but they

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Speaker 1: have dealt with so many injuries coming in there they

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Speaker 1: you know, and golf is you know, we know what

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Speaker 1: Jared Goff is right now. You've you know, it's been

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Speaker 1: demonstrated here over the last I don't know, fourteen games

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Speaker 1: or something like that, is that if you get sure

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Speaker 1: on him and he doesn't have the time to let

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Speaker 1: the play develop, he is just not able to kind

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Speaker 1: of improvise and hit the receivers that are also injuries.

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Speaker 1: I don't know what's going on, by the way, with

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Speaker 1: Robert Woods. I know he missed for personal reasons, but

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Speaker 1: he hasn't practiced yet this week. There's talk that Brndon

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Speaker 1: Cooks is supposed to come back. But I mean, either way,

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Speaker 1: this does not seem like a game that's going to

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Speaker 1: be anywhere close at this point. And it's not like

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Speaker 1: the Rams have some significant home field advantage, right It's

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Speaker 1: just not like that at this point. So for me,

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Speaker 1: this definitely would have been my best pick of the

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Speaker 1: week if you didn't take it, and just looking you know,

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Speaker 1: both at the number of bets and the amount of

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Speaker 1: money that's coming in it is overwhelmingly on the Ravens.

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Speaker 1: And if you look at the bettingpros dot com break down,

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Speaker 1: eighty five percent of our experts are taking Baltimore. And

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Speaker 1: if you look at the top twenty percent the most

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Speaker 1: accurate experts, ninety two percent of them are taking Baltimore.

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Speaker 1: So again, this is game. The one thing I'll ask

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Speaker 1: is do you get worried when you see a line

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Speaker 1: like this? Because, I mean, the way you talked about

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Speaker 1: it kind of looks like we're looking at the game

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Speaker 1: the same way. Do you get a little worried that essentially,

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Speaker 1: even after they moved it to three, because it's been

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Speaker 1: at three since I think Monday. When we looked at

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Speaker 1: it Monday again to look ahead, line was pick them,

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Speaker 1: but they opened it at three. There's a ton of

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Speaker 1: money coming in still in Baltimore, but it hasn't moved yet.

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Speaker 1: Does that ever? Do you ever look at a line

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Speaker 1: and say, man, this seems too good to be true,

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Speaker 1: maybe I'm missing something and get a little skittish in

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Speaker 1: that area.

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Speaker 2: I am nervous when that happens. I'm also nervous when

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Speaker 2: so many people seem to be having the same thought

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Speaker 2: as me on a pick. But at the same time,

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Speaker 2: this is just one of those matchups where, like I said,

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Speaker 2: my initial reaction is that the Ravens are a significantly

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Speaker 2: better team and they're healthier, Like, all this stuff is

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Speaker 2: adding up to a point where I just wouldn't feel

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Speaker 2: comfortable taking the Rams. I'm not even sure where the

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Speaker 2: line would have to be for me to feel really

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Speaker 2: queasy about it. But again, because three is essentially it's

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Speaker 2: almost to pick them right. It's not quite, but it's

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Speaker 2: close enough for teams that are this disparate in my

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Speaker 2: mind that I just I don't know where the line

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Speaker 2: would have to be for me to feel weird about it.

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Speaker 2: But at this point, no, I'm not too worried.

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Speaker 1: Now. I'm one hundred percent with you, and I keep

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Speaker 1: you know, occasionally I'll look at it, especially, you know,

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Speaker 1: whenever you get a bet that so much of the

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Speaker 1: public is back, and you get a little nervous because

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Speaker 1: you know, you never really want to be shaded with

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Speaker 1: the public. But like this past week, you know, the

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Speaker 1: books all took a beating this past week, so sometimes

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Speaker 1: you know, you you go with the Pats or you

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Speaker 1: go with the Saints. To cover the spread and sometimes

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Speaker 1: it works out. So I'm in total agreement with you

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Speaker 1: on that one. For my first pick again, it's it's

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Speaker 1: I'm going to call this the Ravens light. I don't

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Speaker 1: necessarily know if you're gonna agree, but for me, I

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Speaker 1: feel really really confident in this one, and that is

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Speaker 1: even though they're on the road, the Seahawks getting one

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Speaker 1: and a half from the Eagles. I mentioned this on

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Speaker 1: a Monday show that this struck me as one of

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Speaker 1: my favorite lines of the week. I don't feel any

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Speaker 1: differently as I've analyzed it as the week has gone on.

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Speaker 1: I'm really not sure of the faith that the books

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Speaker 1: continue to place in the Eagles here. I mean, I

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Speaker 1: get that they easily could have won the game against

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Speaker 1: the Pats last week, but since they won the Super Bowl,

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Speaker 1: they've essentially been a mediocre team, and that's exactly what

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Speaker 1: they are this year. I get that they've dealt with

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Speaker 1: an incredible amount of injuries like all year long, right,

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Speaker 1: and they played the Pats hard. As I said, they

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Speaker 1: easily could have won that game, but they just lack

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Speaker 1: the firepower on offense, largely because of their problems at

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Speaker 1: the receiver position. To Shan Jackson has effectively missed the

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Speaker 1: entire season, and that's a huge deal because his presence

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Speaker 1: is as the field stretcher was really going to open

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Speaker 1: things off for Carson Wentz. Alshram Jeffrey is still battling injuries.

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Speaker 1: I think he's still only doing individual drills, so I'm

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Speaker 1: not expecting him to play in this week. Nelson Aguiler

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Speaker 1: continues to struggle doing the only thing that a wide

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Speaker 1: receiver is supposed to be able to do, and that

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Speaker 1: has catched the ball. The receivers rank last in the

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Speaker 1: league in yards, second to last and catches, and second

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Speaker 1: to last in yards per catch. They've got Zach Ertz

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Speaker 1: and Dallas Goddard. There's still threats Jordan Howard can run

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Speaker 1: the ball effectively if he plays, but he missed last week.

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Speaker 1: It's unclear if he's going to be back this week.

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Speaker 1: I think he may have been limited right now. Now

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Speaker 1: they've got Lane Johnson in the concussion protocol that's going

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Speaker 1: to hit on their offensive line. The Seahawks defense isn't

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Speaker 1: overly impressive by any means, but Jadavian Clowney is really

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Speaker 1: starting to play extremely well, and I don't think you

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Speaker 1: need to be an elite defense to be able to

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Speaker 1: slow down the Eagles, who just really lack that big

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Speaker 1: play threat. And on the other side of the ball,

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Speaker 1: the Eagles look they're coming off a bye. It sounds

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Speaker 1: like Tyler Lockett's gonna be able to play. I'm a

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Speaker 1: little nervous here because again, he did not practice today.

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Speaker 1: We're recording this on Wednesday. He did not practice today.

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Speaker 1: Pete Carroll is expressing optimism that he's going to be

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Speaker 1: able to play, so I'm penciling him in. Josh Gordon

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Speaker 1: gets another week to get acclimated. And really it's Russell Wilson.

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Speaker 1: I mean, he's playing at an absolutely elite level, similar

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Speaker 1: to Lamar Jackson. The Eagles cannot stop the pass. They

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Speaker 1: do have a good run defense. They allow the fourth

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Speaker 1: fewest rushing yards per game. That's impressive. Maybe they can

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Speaker 1: slow down Chris Carson and they may get Nigel Braden back,

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Speaker 1: so that's gonna help their defense overall. But really it's

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Speaker 1: about Russell Wilson and what he's able to do. I get,

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Speaker 1: you know, it's a West Coast team traveling east, but

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Speaker 1: really they're coming off a bye. Under Pete Carroll, they

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Speaker 1: won five of their last six games off a bye,

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Speaker 1: including the last three, they allowed just seventeen and a

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Speaker 1: half points per game coming off of bye. So look,

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Speaker 1: if Lockett doesn't play in this one, I like it

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Speaker 1: a little less. But to me, again, sort of the

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Speaker 1: process that you analyzed, who would I expect to win

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Speaker 1: the Seahawks versus the Eagles. It's a little difficult because

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Speaker 1: you know, you don't think of the Seahawks really, they're

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Speaker 1: not a great team. It's mostly Russell Wilson. But still

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Speaker 1: I would expect. I'd expect the Seahawks to win here.

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Speaker 1: And so when you've got that, even though they're on

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Speaker 1: the road, it's essentially a pick up. I mean under

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Speaker 1: three for sure. So for me, I'm gonna go with

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Speaker 1: the Seahawks. And I feel pretty good about this one.

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Speaker 2: This wasn't one of my best bets, but I'm in

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Speaker 2: complete agreement with you here. This is one of the

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Speaker 2: picks I wrote up in my rankings article for the week,

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Speaker 2: and I love the Seahawks as well. They rank pretty

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Speaker 2: equally if you look at VOA, and in both cases,

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Speaker 2: the Seahawks rank better both in seasonal DVA and way

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Speaker 2: to DVA. They're getting points, they have an MVP candidate

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Speaker 2: in Russell Wilson, and even if the Eagles are able

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Speaker 2: to stop the running game Chris Carson and the Seahawks

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Speaker 2: running game, that might just incentivize the Seahawks to do

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Speaker 2: what they should be doing and using Russell Wilson to

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Speaker 2: throw the ball more Like what am I missing here?

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Speaker 2: I'm totally with you. The part about this matchup that

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Speaker 2: I find really fascinating is the forty eight point over under.

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Speaker 2: I don't know where to go with that. I think

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Speaker 2: it's probably a stay away, but do you have a

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Speaker 2: good read one way or the other, because it seems

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Speaker 2: like both these two teams want to funnel the opposing

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Speaker 2: offense to throw the ball as opposed to run the ball,

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Speaker 2: and that would lead me to expect a higher total

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Speaker 2: at the end of the game. But I just don't

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Speaker 2: know if that's the mindset of these two teams either,

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Speaker 2: is to try to run it up like that. I

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Speaker 2: want to take the under, but then I looked at

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Speaker 2: some of the consensus stuff on betting pros and it

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Speaker 2: looks like a lot more people are on the over,

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Speaker 2: and I'm not sure if I agree with that. Where

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Speaker 2: do you fall on the over? Under in this game.

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Speaker 1: It's a stay away from me, and pretty much for

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Speaker 1: the reasons that you mentioned, I'm not going to be

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Speaker 1: picking it on the betting pros dot Com consensus picks

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Speaker 1: or anything like that. I agree with you. This game

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Speaker 1: sort of funnels, I think when you look at it

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Speaker 1: towards the over right, because you expect neither team is

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Speaker 1: going to have particular success running the ball. They're both

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Speaker 1: going to have to pass. But I don't really expect

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Speaker 1: the Eagles at this point to be able to put

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Speaker 1: up significant points. It's just I don't have faith in

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Speaker 1: their offense going in, largely because of the injuries. I

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Speaker 1: don't expect as On Jeffrey to play in this one.

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Speaker 1: That's a huge I mean, you've got whether or not

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Speaker 1: you want to call Jordan Matthews or you want to

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Speaker 1: call Nelson Aguil or your number one wide receiver, it

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Speaker 1: doesn't matter. That should tell you all you need to

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Speaker 1: know about the fact that those are the two guys

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Speaker 1: in contentionent. So I don't really have that much faith

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Speaker 1: in the Eagles being able to put up that many points.

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Speaker 1: And the Eagles defense, to be fair, is improving a

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Speaker 1: little bit. They're getting a little bit healthier in the secondary.

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Speaker 1: They played well against the Pats last week, So it's

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Speaker 1: not though a game I feel like it does funnel

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Speaker 1: sort of towards the over, but it's not a game

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Speaker 1: where I feel particularly confident that it would get there.

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Speaker 1: So for me, it's kind of a stay away at

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Speaker 1: that number. All right, let's move on to your second

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Speaker 1: pick over here? What do you got for number two?

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Speaker 2: So I'm going to take the Jets plus three at

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Speaker 2: home against the Raiders. And this pick might seem to

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Speaker 2: fly in the face of that clad Willian approach I

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Speaker 2: outlined for the Ravens pick, because at a base level,

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Speaker 2: I would expect the Raiders to win this game out right,

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Speaker 2: but in this case, it's one where the extra context

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Speaker 2: alters my perception of the matchup a little bit. The

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Speaker 2: warm Weather Raiders are favored, but they're traveling east for

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Speaker 2: an early start in gold Weather. They're one in three

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Speaker 2: in road games already this season, and could slash should

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Speaker 2: be looking ahead to a more important road game next

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Speaker 2: week against their divisional rival, the Kansas City Chiefs. So

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Speaker 2: if you're the type of person who believes in trap games,

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Speaker 2: this one fits the bill. Regardless, there are some non

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Speaker 2: narrative reasons to like the Jets as well. With their

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Speaker 2: second ranked rush defense by DVOA and top ranked defensive

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Speaker 2: line by justin lineyards, New York should be able to

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Speaker 2: disrupt the identity Oakland is built around Josh Jacobs, and

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Speaker 2: on offense, Sam Darnold and company will have the pleasure

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Speaker 2: of facing a Raiders team that ranks twenty third and

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Speaker 2: passing DVA or passing defense DVA while allowing the seventh

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Speaker 2: most passing yards per game and the third most passing

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Speaker 2: touchdowns per game. Derek Carr is really going to have

347
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Speaker 2: to step up in a significant way for the Raiders

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Speaker 2: to cover. And I'm not a Derek Carr believer, so

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Speaker 2: give me the points with the Jets.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think it's brave because as a Jets fan,

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Speaker 1: I fear trusting the Jets, and I look, I was

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Speaker 1: on them a lot earlier in this season after that

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Speaker 1: Cowboys game, who where I backed them as well. Certainly

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Speaker 1: they got crushed against the Patriots next week get crushed

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Speaker 1: against the Jaguars, So I am a little gunshy, but yeah,

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Speaker 1: this is a line where when I looked at it

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Speaker 1: on Monday, I said, yikes, it kind of feels like

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Speaker 1: this line needs to be a little bit higher here,

359
00:15:10,320 --> 00:15:12,480
Speaker 1: like more like the Raiders laying four and a half

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Speaker 1: something like that. But for the reasons that you broke

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Speaker 1: down I Hack, this game kind of sets up well

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Speaker 1: for the Jets. Like, forget about the fact that Oakland

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Speaker 1: is coming east and their history, they don't usually play

364
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Speaker 1: well when they need to come east. But essentially, the

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Speaker 1: strength of the Raiders game offensively is their run game.

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Speaker 1: That's the one thing that the Jets can really attack,

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Speaker 1: and they don't have the wide receivers. You know, Jamal

368
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Speaker 1: Adams is great, but for the most part, the secondary

369
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Speaker 1: for the Jets really struggles with cornerbacks are subpar. But

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Speaker 1: you know, the thing about the Raiders is they don't

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Speaker 1: really have those elite wide receivers that could take advantage

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Speaker 1: of it. Tyrell Williams is fine, but he's battling planter

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Speaker 1: fasci itis as he goes through Hunter Renfros Okay, Zay

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Speaker 1: Jones isn't really doing anything. Darren Waller is gonna present

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Speaker 1: a little bit of a problem. But again, on the

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Speaker 1: other side, as you mentioned, really the big thing for

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Speaker 1: the Jets is that the offensive line is atrocious, But

378
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Speaker 1: when you're going up against an oak team that really

379
00:16:01,120 --> 00:16:03,680
Speaker 1: struggles to get pressure on the quarterback, I think this

380
00:16:03,760 --> 00:16:05,840
Speaker 1: is an area that the Jets can exploit. So I

381
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Speaker 1: do expect the game to be close. I'm not sure

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Speaker 1: whether or not the Jets are going to win, but

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Speaker 1: certainly the quote unquote trap game. That is what this says.

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Speaker 1: And I will say that the public is backing the

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Speaker 1: Raiders as you might expect, but the money is backing

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Speaker 1: the Jets, which basically shows you. Usually it's a little

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Speaker 1: early to make the conclusion, but it's usually a sign

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Speaker 1: that sharpbetters are backing the Jets. And when you look

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Speaker 1: again at our breakdown at bettingpros dot com, seventy percent

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00:16:29,520 --> 00:16:32,080
Speaker 1: are backing the Jets over Oakland. So it looks like

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Speaker 1: you've got a lot of support with that bet. Again,

392
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Speaker 1: something that I don't It's not one of the ones

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Speaker 1: that I'm super excited about. If I'm forced to pick

394
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Speaker 1: a side, I'll go with the Jets. But I certainly

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Speaker 1: get everywhere that you're coming from.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so your bias against the Jets as a Jets

397
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Speaker 2: fan is kind of mirrored by my bias against the Raiders.

398
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Speaker 2: I'm a Bay Area guy. I'm not necessarily a Raiders fan,

399
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Speaker 2: but they're one of the teams that's always on TV

400
00:16:52,560 --> 00:16:54,800
Speaker 2: when I was growing up, and even up until this

401
00:16:54,880 --> 00:16:57,800
Speaker 2: past season. I recently moved, but yeah, when I was

402
00:16:57,800 --> 00:16:59,440
Speaker 2: out there, I saw a lot of Derek Carr and

403
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Speaker 2: I'm just not believer it's not happening.

404
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Speaker 1: Well, it's a travesty then that you and I are

405
00:17:03,320 --> 00:17:05,359
Speaker 1: not going to this game together. But next time they play,

406
00:17:05,400 --> 00:17:07,359
Speaker 1: we'll make sure we'll make it a date. I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: go to my second one, which Greg, I can almost

408
00:17:09,560 --> 00:17:12,320
Speaker 1: guarantee you you are not going to like. So I'll

409
00:17:12,400 --> 00:17:14,680
Speaker 1: put that out there right now. Now, I am going

410
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Speaker 1: to admit that I usually when I know we're having

411
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Speaker 1: a podcast, I usually check the lines. I don't know

412
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Speaker 1: four hours in advance. I make a couple of notes,

413
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Speaker 1: I make sure what I want to do, and this one,

414
00:17:25,320 --> 00:17:27,520
Speaker 1: the line has moved since I made the pick, and

415
00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:29,800
Speaker 1: I'm still in not in my favor either, So I'm

416
00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:31,879
Speaker 1: still going to go with it, but I don't like

417
00:17:31,920 --> 00:17:34,000
Speaker 1: it quite as much. And that is the forty nine

418
00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:37,120
Speaker 1: Ers and the Packers now over forty seven and a half.

419
00:17:37,119 --> 00:17:39,360
Speaker 1: It was over forty six and a half at the time,

420
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Speaker 1: I want to go with it. So this is going

421
00:17:40,520 --> 00:17:42,080
Speaker 1: to be an exciting game. I think it's going to

422
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Speaker 1: be high scoring. The forty nine Ers are second in

423
00:17:44,320 --> 00:17:46,520
Speaker 1: scoring offense at twenty nine and a half points per game.

424
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Speaker 1: The Packers are ninth with twenty five points per game.

425
00:17:49,320 --> 00:17:51,840
Speaker 1: Both offenses are playing well right now. There are certainly

426
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Speaker 1: question marks for the forty nine Ers in terms of

427
00:17:53,880 --> 00:17:56,480
Speaker 1: their skill players and injury. It is unclear right now

428
00:17:56,600 --> 00:17:58,320
Speaker 1: if George Kittle is going to make it back for

429
00:17:58,359 --> 00:18:01,399
Speaker 1: this game. Emmanuel Sanders has the last two games with injuries,

430
00:18:01,440 --> 00:18:03,399
Speaker 1: although last I heard he was not on the injury report.

431
00:18:03,600 --> 00:18:06,040
Speaker 1: Matt Breedom may still be out. But really, Kyle Shanahan's

432
00:18:06,040 --> 00:18:09,240
Speaker 1: system is effective enough that they're able to survive even

433
00:18:09,280 --> 00:18:12,400
Speaker 1: without them. And really I think it's because, oddly enough,

434
00:18:12,440 --> 00:18:14,840
Speaker 1: the key to their offense is really Kyle Yushchak, who's

435
00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:18,400
Speaker 1: presence there it kind of transforms the unit. Deebo Samuel

436
00:18:18,440 --> 00:18:20,199
Speaker 1: also battling a little bit of injury, but I do

437
00:18:20,240 --> 00:18:23,000
Speaker 1: expect him to play. He's stepping up, developing into a

438
00:18:23,119 --> 00:18:26,119
Speaker 1: reliable wide receiver. So they have enough on offense to

439
00:18:26,160 --> 00:18:28,919
Speaker 1: get by in their running game, which had been extremely

440
00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:31,800
Speaker 1: effective early on, has not been great over the last

441
00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:34,520
Speaker 1: few games. I mean Tevin Coleman in particular, has not

442
00:18:34,560 --> 00:18:37,040
Speaker 1: looked good. They've averaged seventy four rushing yards per game

443
00:18:37,080 --> 00:18:39,639
Speaker 1: over their last three, but that is obviously where you

444
00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:41,720
Speaker 1: can attack the Packers defense on the ground. They allow

445
00:18:41,760 --> 00:18:44,080
Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty seven rushing yards per game, and again,

446
00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:46,480
Speaker 1: I think us check being in there is going to

447
00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:49,480
Speaker 1: you know, against the team that's particularly weak against the run,

448
00:18:49,720 --> 00:18:51,280
Speaker 1: is going to be able to help them. Now their

449
00:18:51,320 --> 00:18:54,280
Speaker 1: defense is slipping as well. They've allowed twenty six points

450
00:18:54,280 --> 00:18:56,080
Speaker 1: per game over their last three to two of those

451
00:18:56,080 --> 00:18:59,360
Speaker 1: games against the Cardinals. The Kwan Alexander injury really hurts

452
00:18:59,359 --> 00:19:01,520
Speaker 1: their run defense, and that's obviously not a good thing

453
00:19:01,560 --> 00:19:03,960
Speaker 1: when you're going up against the team with both Aaron

454
00:19:04,040 --> 00:19:07,040
Speaker 1: Jones and Jamal Williams. D Ford also entered his hamstring,

455
00:19:07,280 --> 00:19:09,239
Speaker 1: so he may need to miss this game. That's going

456
00:19:09,280 --> 00:19:11,600
Speaker 1: to put some pressure on the pass rush. So I

457
00:19:11,600 --> 00:19:13,880
Speaker 1: see Aaron Rodgers and company being able to put up now.

458
00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:16,600
Speaker 1: I said when I started this, I said, Greg, You're

459
00:19:16,640 --> 00:19:18,760
Speaker 1: not going to like this pick. I think because they're

460
00:19:18,760 --> 00:19:21,360
Speaker 1: going to say Dan everything you're saying sounds like it's

461
00:19:21,400 --> 00:19:23,359
Speaker 1: going to lead to a lot of rushing attempts, and

462
00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:25,280
Speaker 1: that is going to mean that it's going to eat

463
00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:27,200
Speaker 1: up the clock and that favors the under That's a

464
00:19:27,240 --> 00:19:29,840
Speaker 1: good point, Greg, I respect your opinion, but for me,

465
00:19:30,080 --> 00:19:32,200
Speaker 1: I don't really expect this to be a game where

466
00:19:32,240 --> 00:19:34,920
Speaker 1: they're just going to run, run, run the entire time.

467
00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:36,600
Speaker 1: I think that it's just going to be a game

468
00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:40,120
Speaker 1: where both teams are going to have success using the run,

469
00:19:40,160 --> 00:19:41,919
Speaker 1: and I think that that is going to set up

470
00:19:42,119 --> 00:19:43,920
Speaker 1: a lot of play action passing and that they're going

471
00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:47,359
Speaker 1: to be able to score relatively quickly when they need to.

472
00:19:47,400 --> 00:19:48,800
Speaker 1: In other words, I don't expect this to be a

473
00:19:48,800 --> 00:19:50,240
Speaker 1: game or they're just going to run down the field

474
00:19:50,280 --> 00:19:52,119
Speaker 1: and have these long seven to eight minute drives. I

475
00:19:52,119 --> 00:19:53,720
Speaker 1: think they're just going to be so effective that it's

476
00:19:53,720 --> 00:19:55,679
Speaker 1: going to open up the pass. The forty nine Ers

477
00:19:55,680 --> 00:19:57,760
Speaker 1: don't have a cornerback that can hang with DeVonta Adams

478
00:19:57,880 --> 00:20:00,479
Speaker 1: at this point, and the Packers' cornerbacks are a very

479
00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:03,520
Speaker 1: good their defense. Pass defense has been slipping a little bit,

480
00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:05,159
Speaker 1: but it's not as if the forty nine Ers have

481
00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:07,879
Speaker 1: these dominant wide receivers. It's much more about their scheme.

482
00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:09,680
Speaker 1: So I think both teams are going to be able

483
00:20:09,720 --> 00:20:10,960
Speaker 1: to move the ball well. I think this is a

484
00:20:10,960 --> 00:20:12,840
Speaker 1: primetime game. I think both teams are going to get

485
00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:14,439
Speaker 1: up for a Forty seven and a half is a

486
00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:16,520
Speaker 1: little higher for me than I liked it more at

487
00:20:16,520 --> 00:20:18,560
Speaker 1: forty six and a half. But my guest, Greg, and

488
00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:19,800
Speaker 1: you can correct me if I'm wrong, is that you

489
00:20:19,840 --> 00:20:21,680
Speaker 1: would have liked the under at forty six and a half.

490
00:20:22,520 --> 00:20:25,800
Speaker 2: Uh not necessarily. I probably would have just stayed away altogether.

491
00:20:26,560 --> 00:20:28,159
Speaker 2: The Niners are my team. They're the one that I

492
00:20:28,320 --> 00:20:30,560
Speaker 2: tend to be a little less rational about at times.

493
00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:33,200
Speaker 2: So I don't have a good feeling for this game,

494
00:20:33,240 --> 00:20:35,280
Speaker 2: and if anything, I would be looking at the Green

495
00:20:35,320 --> 00:20:39,359
Speaker 2: Bay plus three side of this contest. But if I

496
00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:43,000
Speaker 2: were going to argue against the over in this game one,

497
00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:45,560
Speaker 2: you already laid it out. The line has moved. I

498
00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:48,000
Speaker 2: think it started even lower at forty six, then went

499
00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:49,359
Speaker 2: to forty six and a half, and now is it

500
00:20:49,359 --> 00:20:50,720
Speaker 2: what did you say, forty seven and a half?

501
00:20:50,760 --> 00:20:51,760
Speaker 1: Forty seven and a half.

502
00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:53,919
Speaker 2: So if you got in early, I think that it

503
00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:56,119
Speaker 2: seems like you made the right call based upon the

504
00:20:56,160 --> 00:20:59,920
Speaker 2: action that we've seen in that line movement. But I

505
00:21:00,440 --> 00:21:03,080
Speaker 2: worry about the running aspect of the matchup, like you've

506
00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:06,159
Speaker 2: talked about. If you look at situation neutral pace, the

507
00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:08,440
Speaker 2: Niners ranked fourteenth of the league, but the Packers rank

508
00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:10,639
Speaker 2: all the way down to twenty seventh. These teams like

509
00:21:10,680 --> 00:21:12,840
Speaker 2: to slow it down a little bit. I'm a little

510
00:21:12,880 --> 00:21:15,359
Speaker 2: worried about all the injuries that the Niners have. Deebo

511
00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:18,720
Speaker 2: Samuel is missing practice now, which isn't good. Manuel Sanders

512
00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:21,320
Speaker 2: was already limited, and we still don't know about Kittle

513
00:21:21,520 --> 00:21:24,520
Speaker 2: Matt Brada. I worry that the Niners might not have

514
00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:28,679
Speaker 2: the playmakers to make this game or to hit the

515
00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:31,480
Speaker 2: over in this game, even if they have Kyle yuscheck back.

516
00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:33,320
Speaker 2: And I agree with you about yus check He is

517
00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:36,960
Speaker 2: a very integral part and unheralded aspect of that offense.

518
00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:42,080
Speaker 2: But I do like the over overall, but I would

519
00:21:42,080 --> 00:21:44,120
Speaker 2: not bet it with any sort of confidence.

520
00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:46,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, and when you're looking at the amount of money

521
00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:49,200
Speaker 1: that has come in on the over, it's what I'm

522
00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:51,720
Speaker 1: seeing is ninety six percent of the money's coming on there.

523
00:21:51,760 --> 00:21:53,240
Speaker 1: But that is now, it's at forty seven and a

524
00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:55,840
Speaker 1: half that's on ninety six at over forty seven and

525
00:21:55,840 --> 00:21:57,400
Speaker 1: a half, which again at forty six and a half,

526
00:21:57,480 --> 00:21:58,879
Speaker 1: I was like, okay, I like it, and it has

527
00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:01,000
Speaker 1: been tread tog up forty seven and a half even

528
00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:03,280
Speaker 1: I'm going to admit that I'm a little squeischy about it,

529
00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:05,199
Speaker 1: but I still think in the end, you know, I

530
00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:07,920
Speaker 1: expect Samuel to play and I expect Sanders to play.

531
00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:10,360
Speaker 1: So as long as it isn't they've got nothing on offense.

532
00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:11,840
Speaker 1: I do think that they're going to be able to

533
00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:13,600
Speaker 1: move the ball, and I think both teams are going

534
00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:15,200
Speaker 1: to put up points. Here. Let's go on to your

535
00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:16,280
Speaker 1: third pick. What do you got?

536
00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:18,480
Speaker 2: So my third pick is going to be Miami plus

537
00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:20,960
Speaker 2: ten and a half at Cleveland. The Browns defensive lineman

538
00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:23,639
Speaker 2: Olivier Vernon is questionable for this game, and Cleveland is

539
00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:25,920
Speaker 2: already going to be missing Miles Garrett, Morgan Burnett, and

540
00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:29,120
Speaker 2: Larry Ogunjobi from their defense. So I think Miami should

541
00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:31,560
Speaker 2: have a much easier time generating offense than we might

542
00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:34,320
Speaker 2: have expected, say a week ago. Maybe you want to

543
00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:36,680
Speaker 2: play the narrative card and say that the incident in

544
00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:39,400
Speaker 2: the Steelers Browns game last week will help galvin ie

545
00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:42,240
Speaker 2: and focus the Browns for their stretch run. And I

546
00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:45,119
Speaker 2: can buy that argument for predicting a win, especially with

547
00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:47,680
Speaker 2: a long week to prepare coming off Thursday night football,

548
00:22:47,960 --> 00:22:50,920
Speaker 2: but predicting a win by eleven or more, I'm a

549
00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:53,080
Speaker 2: little skeptical. So I'm taking the points here with Miami.

550
00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:55,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't hate it by any means. It's not

551
00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:59,120
Speaker 1: one of my best bets. But anytime you're getting double digits,

552
00:22:59,280 --> 00:23:01,760
Speaker 1: you know, you just have to take a real close

553
00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:05,000
Speaker 1: look at the underdog. The Browns just you know, I

554
00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:07,200
Speaker 1: know that they've obviously you know, they're playing a little

555
00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:09,680
Speaker 1: bit better. I do think that Kareem Hunt being back,

556
00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:12,400
Speaker 1: and specifically, you know, their offense, when they're playing both

557
00:23:12,520 --> 00:23:14,800
Speaker 1: Hunt and Chubb on the field at the same time,

558
00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:17,119
Speaker 1: it really does seem to be working for them and

559
00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:19,959
Speaker 1: opening up what they want to do. But yeah, I

560
00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:23,600
Speaker 1: don't think that they're really just you know, an overwhelming

561
00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:25,800
Speaker 1: team who's going to be able to stomp all over

562
00:23:25,840 --> 00:23:28,000
Speaker 1: the Dolphins. And again, you know, the Dolphins were one

563
00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:30,320
Speaker 1: of the best covering teams you know, in the game

564
00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:32,920
Speaker 1: for a while, and they certainly still have a little

565
00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:35,560
Speaker 1: bit of juice they're playing hard. That tank for two

566
00:23:35,560 --> 00:23:39,000
Speaker 1: of things probably gone at this point, you know, obviously

567
00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:42,040
Speaker 1: because tuus injury and factors. They've won two games anyway,

568
00:23:42,040 --> 00:23:44,160
Speaker 1: They're never going to beat the Bengals for that pick regardless.

569
00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:47,680
Speaker 1: So they're actually playing pretty hard despite all the injuries,

570
00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:50,560
Speaker 1: despite the fact that klein Blage is probably one of

571
00:23:50,560 --> 00:23:52,560
Speaker 1: the worst running backs in the history of football. So

572
00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:55,200
Speaker 1: I really don't hate it here. I'm good to go

573
00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:58,560
Speaker 1: with a spread that that's big, particularly with Garrett out,

574
00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:01,800
Speaker 1: which is a big deal. I'll you know, just going

575
00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:02,880
Speaker 1: to affect their pass rush.

576
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:05,200
Speaker 2: So if I had to poke holes in my own

577
00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:08,200
Speaker 2: pick here, the biggest fear I have is Odell Beckham

578
00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:11,359
Speaker 2: Junior just going nuclear in this matchup because the targets

579
00:24:11,400 --> 00:24:13,679
Speaker 2: have been there. He's getting fed week after week, and

580
00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:15,920
Speaker 2: now he gets to face a Miami defense that has

581
00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:18,879
Speaker 2: the worst pass rush in the league by adjusted lineyards

582
00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:22,359
Speaker 2: or Byjustin zach rate and the worst passing defense by

583
00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:25,480
Speaker 2: DV away. So this is one of those situations that

584
00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:28,040
Speaker 2: seems to line up really well for the passing game,

585
00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:30,120
Speaker 2: and Baker Mayfield is, you know, maybe starting to turn

586
00:24:30,119 --> 00:24:32,600
Speaker 2: it around if he connects on a couple of those

587
00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:36,320
Speaker 2: deep balls to Odell Beckham Junior, maybe they're able just

588
00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:39,120
Speaker 2: to bury the Dolphins. But with that said, all those

589
00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:41,960
Speaker 2: injuries on defense for the Browns really leads me to

590
00:24:41,960 --> 00:24:44,159
Speaker 2: a point where I think that if the Browns get up,

591
00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:48,120
Speaker 2: big Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to be able to potentially

592
00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:51,040
Speaker 2: back to recover this thing, even if things go completely haywire.

593
00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:53,399
Speaker 2: So no matter how you slice it, I just like

594
00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:56,160
Speaker 2: the way things are lining up for Miami mostly based

595
00:24:56,200 --> 00:24:58,280
Speaker 2: upon those injuries on the defensive side of the ball

596
00:24:58,320 --> 00:24:58,879
Speaker 2: for the Browns.

597
00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:02,159
Speaker 1: That's funny that you mentioned Odell Beckham Junior, because I

598
00:25:02,160 --> 00:25:04,080
Speaker 1: have a feeling we might be hearing about him again

599
00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:07,080
Speaker 1: later in the show when we get to another segment

600
00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:09,359
Speaker 1: about our top prop. But I will save it for

601
00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:11,920
Speaker 1: them for my third pick, I'm going to be holding

602
00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:15,560
Speaker 1: my nose really really tight and taking the Bengals. Getting

603
00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:18,479
Speaker 1: six and a half from the Steelers. I said I

604
00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:20,639
Speaker 1: was not going to do this anymore, that I was

605
00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:24,200
Speaker 1: totally done backing the Bengals, but I every time they

606
00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:27,240
Speaker 1: think I'm out, they pull me back in. I wanted

607
00:25:27,240 --> 00:25:29,760
Speaker 1: the seven at six and a half, I obviously like

608
00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:31,880
Speaker 1: it a little less, but I just have a feeling

609
00:25:32,040 --> 00:25:35,080
Speaker 1: that this is the first win. There's nothing good about

610
00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:37,600
Speaker 1: the Bengals right now. I admit they are poorly coached,

611
00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:40,240
Speaker 1: they are playing without energy, but they can still cover

612
00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:42,680
Speaker 1: a point spread every once in a while. And really

613
00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:45,800
Speaker 1: what it comes down to is, I'm not exactly sure

614
00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:48,600
Speaker 1: how the Steelers are going to move the football in

615
00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:51,320
Speaker 1: this game. I mean, I'll give you that the Bengals

616
00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:54,680
Speaker 1: defense is really terrible. They're by far the worst in

617
00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:57,320
Speaker 1: the league against the run. They have absolutely no pass rush.

618
00:25:57,320 --> 00:26:00,600
Speaker 1: They just lost ray kerk Pactrick. But still, if you

619
00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:02,960
Speaker 1: and I went out there and we just grabbed nine

620
00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:05,440
Speaker 1: other guys off the street, we really might be able

621
00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:07,880
Speaker 1: to stop the Steelers offense. At this point, They're gonna

622
00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:10,600
Speaker 1: be down James Connor, They're gonna be down Juju Smith, Schuster.

623
00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:13,880
Speaker 1: Apparently Deante Johnson may play in this one. I hope,

624
00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:16,440
Speaker 1: I really hope not. In the end. I still kind

625
00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:18,520
Speaker 1: of think they're gonna wind up holding them out. But

626
00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:21,879
Speaker 1: there are positive reports today. So what's their offense like

627
00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:24,080
Speaker 1: on a good day. I mean, they averaged three and

628
00:26:24,080 --> 00:26:26,320
Speaker 1: a half yards per carry on the ground. Their receivers

629
00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:29,720
Speaker 1: are averaging nine point nine yards per reception. The offense

630
00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:34,240
Speaker 1: has scored eighteen touchdowns in ten games, so great. Rather

631
00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:37,320
Speaker 1: than James Connor, we'll roll with Benny Snell and Jaylen

632
00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:40,359
Speaker 1: Samuels instead of Juju Smith Schuster and probably Dante Johnson.

633
00:26:40,440 --> 00:26:44,000
Speaker 1: Let's go with Dion Kin out there. And also let's

634
00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:46,320
Speaker 1: lose our Pro Bowl center Markue's pouncy because of the

635
00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:49,240
Speaker 1: three game suspension. So again, the Bengals are bad, but

636
00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:51,200
Speaker 1: you're gonna see a lot of targets for Tyler Boyd

637
00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:53,240
Speaker 1: in this one. After he complained Joe Mixon has been

638
00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:55,639
Speaker 1: getting a little more work. I think they'll be able

639
00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:58,480
Speaker 1: to kind of smell a win here against the Steelers

640
00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:01,640
Speaker 1: and keep it close with the under of thirty nine too,

641
00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:04,080
Speaker 1: by the way, I mean, I'd totally be fine with that,

642
00:27:04,119 --> 00:27:06,159
Speaker 1: but for now, I'm gonna hold my nails and go

643
00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:08,200
Speaker 1: with the Bengals getting six and a half from the Steelers.

644
00:27:08,680 --> 00:27:10,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is actually one of my picks as well.

645
00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:12,359
Speaker 2: It's definitely not high enough confidence for me to call

646
00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:15,360
Speaker 2: it a best bet, but I like the Bengals. The

647
00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:17,199
Speaker 2: under I think is a better bet here. I think

648
00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:20,040
Speaker 2: you kind of danced your way around that all of

649
00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:22,280
Speaker 2: it to kind of close with that, and I think

650
00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:24,000
Speaker 2: that's really the angle to shoot from here. If you

651
00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:26,280
Speaker 2: look at the previous matchup, I think it finished twenty

652
00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:28,439
Speaker 2: seven to three in favor of the Steelers, and that

653
00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:31,480
Speaker 2: was a much more complete Steelers team at that point,

654
00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:34,560
Speaker 2: still only thirty points scored. So I would much prefer

655
00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:36,400
Speaker 2: to take the under in this game rather than take

656
00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:40,440
Speaker 2: the Bengals. But we're not talking about a prolific Pittsburgh team,

657
00:27:40,760 --> 00:27:43,679
Speaker 2: and especially on offense like Mason Rudolph was so so

658
00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:46,560
Speaker 2: bad last week, and that's all been kind of swippt

659
00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:48,159
Speaker 2: under the rug based upon the incident at the end

660
00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:51,520
Speaker 2: of the game. But the Steelers' average point differential is

661
00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:54,000
Speaker 2: negative for the season, just barely. They've scored about twenty

662
00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:56,520
Speaker 2: points per game. They've given up about twenty points per game.

663
00:27:56,760 --> 00:28:00,280
Speaker 2: Asking them to cover a touchdown spread is pretty steve

664
00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:02,600
Speaker 2: considering all those injuries that you mentioned on the offensive

665
00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:05,280
Speaker 2: side of the ball. I grant that it is against

666
00:28:05,280 --> 00:28:07,200
Speaker 2: the Bengals, though, and so there is that risk there.

667
00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:08,720
Speaker 2: I don't think you can take this with a ton

668
00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:11,480
Speaker 2: of confidence, but I agree with you. I think the

669
00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:13,240
Speaker 2: Bengals are the correct bet if you have to pick

670
00:28:13,240 --> 00:28:15,520
Speaker 2: between these two teams against the spread, but I do

671
00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:17,360
Speaker 2: like the under bet more. Yeah.

672
00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:19,719
Speaker 1: No, I'm probably gonna be taking both of them this

673
00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:22,080
Speaker 1: week because that is the type of game. And really,

674
00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:23,760
Speaker 1: the one thing that worries me a little bit is

675
00:28:23,800 --> 00:28:26,320
Speaker 1: the threat of a defensive score for the Steelers, who, again,

676
00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:29,480
Speaker 1: since Minka Fitzpatrick has gotten there, they've been very very solid,

677
00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:32,439
Speaker 1: and Ryan Finley's just not really getting it done, So

678
00:28:32,680 --> 00:28:34,760
Speaker 1: that is something that worries me. But I'll probably go

679
00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:36,760
Speaker 1: with both when we're taking them on the betting pros

680
00:28:36,800 --> 00:28:39,320
Speaker 1: dot Com consensus odds. So, all right, Greg, you're gonna

681
00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:42,160
Speaker 1: take the Jets getting three from the Raiders, the Ravens

682
00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:45,640
Speaker 1: giving three I believe to the Rams, and the Dolphins

683
00:28:45,720 --> 00:28:48,560
Speaker 1: getting ten and a half from the Browns. Right, that's right.

684
00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:50,479
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the Seahawks getting one and a half

685
00:28:50,520 --> 00:28:52,680
Speaker 1: from the Eagles, the forty nine Ers and the Packers

686
00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:55,320
Speaker 1: over forty seven and a half a little more reluctantly

687
00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:57,040
Speaker 1: than I was at forty six and a half, and

688
00:28:57,080 --> 00:28:59,040
Speaker 1: the Bengals getting six and a half from the Steelers,

689
00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:01,280
Speaker 1: which I love and I'm told confident and so don't

690
00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:03,640
Speaker 1: anybody worry about that. Now. Before we move on to

691
00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:06,520
Speaker 1: our next segment, let's talk briefly about bet MGM and

692
00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:09,200
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693
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696
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697
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698
00:29:25,800 --> 00:29:31,600
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699
00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:35,120
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700
00:29:35,240 --> 00:29:38,480
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701
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702
00:29:41,640 --> 00:29:43,920
Speaker 1: forty nine Ers when they face the Packers on Sunday

703
00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:46,400
Speaker 1: Night Football. We talked about that game, and look, I

704
00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:49,200
Speaker 1: like the over you can bet. I think Jimmy Garoppolo

705
00:29:49,280 --> 00:29:52,080
Speaker 1: is going to complete at least one pass, and if

706
00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:56,080
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707
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708
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709
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710
00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:06,360
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711
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712
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716
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717
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718
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719
00:30:26,840 --> 00:30:30,040
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720
00:30:30,080 --> 00:30:31,880
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721
00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:34,000
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722
00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:37,520
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723
00:30:37,520 --> 00:30:39,640
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724
00:30:39,760 --> 00:30:41,520
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725
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726
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727
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728
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729
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Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler. All right, Greg, let's move on

730
00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:56,760
Speaker 1: to it's a trap where we list the line we

731
00:30:56,800 --> 00:30:57,840
Speaker 1: are avoiding. What do you got?

732
00:30:58,120 --> 00:31:01,480
Speaker 2: So the Giants in the Bay are each three and

733
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:04,400
Speaker 2: seven against the spread so far this year. So what's

734
00:31:04,440 --> 00:31:08,360
Speaker 2: the opposite of an immovable force meets an unstoppable object? Right,

735
00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:10,360
Speaker 2: That's what we're looking at here. If you're picking this

736
00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:15,280
Speaker 2: game Giants at Bears, you're dancing with a Variansteavil. Both

737
00:31:15,320 --> 00:31:19,240
Speaker 2: teams feature volatile quarterback situations. Daniel Jones is a turnover machine,

738
00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:22,160
Speaker 2: while Chicago is stuck between Mitchell Trubisky and Chase Daniel.

739
00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:24,680
Speaker 2: Can you take any of those passers with confidence? Because

740
00:31:24,800 --> 00:31:27,840
Speaker 2: I cannot. The only standout unit in this matchup is

741
00:31:27,840 --> 00:31:30,920
Speaker 2: the Bears defense, which ranks fourth in DVA. If the

742
00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:33,160
Speaker 2: line were three, or maybe three and a half, I'd

743
00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:36,000
Speaker 2: feel a lot better about leaning on Chicago's defense. But

744
00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:39,080
Speaker 2: good defenses help you win small, not big, So laying

745
00:31:39,120 --> 00:31:41,080
Speaker 2: six and a half points here is a bit of

746
00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:45,680
Speaker 2: a deal breaker. Maybe the Bears can turn a takeaway

747
00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:47,800
Speaker 2: into points and cover, but counting on that sort of

748
00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:50,600
Speaker 2: outcome is risky, if not just completely negligent with your

749
00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:54,480
Speaker 2: betting bankroll. I'm probably gonna take the Giants in pools

750
00:31:54,480 --> 00:31:56,560
Speaker 2: where I'm forced to make a pick, but this game

751
00:31:56,640 --> 00:31:58,120
Speaker 2: is ultimately just to stay away from me.

752
00:31:58,560 --> 00:32:01,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, I could not agree more. I mean, especially because

753
00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:02,840
Speaker 1: I don't really know what you're going to be able

754
00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:05,080
Speaker 1: to expect to see from the Bears defense, because if

755
00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:07,160
Speaker 1: you're that defense, you've just got to be so beaten

756
00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:09,800
Speaker 1: down right now, right, I mean, you play hard every

757
00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:12,520
Speaker 1: single week, you put up a great effort against the Rams,

758
00:32:12,560 --> 00:32:15,240
Speaker 1: and just you know, you know that there's no way

759
00:32:15,280 --> 00:32:17,160
Speaker 1: that Mitchell Trubisky is going to be able to put

760
00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:20,000
Speaker 1: up points other than that one random game against the Lions.

761
00:32:20,000 --> 00:32:21,960
Speaker 1: So you know, especially with that, you could see the

762
00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:24,480
Speaker 1: Bears coming out and doing absolutely nothing at all, even

763
00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:26,640
Speaker 1: though you know, again I do expect them to, as

764
00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:29,120
Speaker 1: they have all season, have a solid defensive effort, but

765
00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:31,040
Speaker 1: with where their psyche is right now, I would be

766
00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:34,400
Speaker 1: just concerned about getting involved in any way in this game.

767
00:32:34,440 --> 00:32:36,000
Speaker 1: So it's certainly so go ahead.

768
00:32:36,240 --> 00:32:39,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, So what do you think is the value of

769
00:32:39,760 --> 00:32:42,840
Speaker 2: Chase Daniels starting for this team? Potentially because you've talked

770
00:32:42,840 --> 00:32:45,959
Speaker 2: about the negative impact that Cherubisky has on this team psyche,

771
00:32:45,960 --> 00:32:48,320
Speaker 2: and I totally agree with you. Like they looked completely

772
00:32:48,320 --> 00:32:52,160
Speaker 2: defeated last week, and I'm wondering, if they have a

773
00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:54,239
Speaker 2: new quarterback under center, somebody who's just a little bit

774
00:32:54,240 --> 00:32:57,840
Speaker 2: more competent, a little bit more polished, does that inspire

775
00:32:57,960 --> 00:32:59,840
Speaker 2: the team to play harder at all? It does that matter,

776
00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:03,120
Speaker 2: I think ultimately, because that sort of question, the answer

777
00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:05,920
Speaker 2: to that is so unknowable. That's another reason why I

778
00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:08,120
Speaker 2: would stay away from this game. But I'm curious what

779
00:33:08,160 --> 00:33:11,920
Speaker 2: you think about that sort of situation where the team

780
00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:14,640
Speaker 2: might be more motivated based upon a change at quarterback

781
00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:14,920
Speaker 2: like this.

782
00:33:15,480 --> 00:33:17,920
Speaker 1: So I think it can't be a negative because I

783
00:33:17,960 --> 00:33:21,000
Speaker 1: really think right now, with Trubisky back there, the defense

784
00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:23,360
Speaker 1: has just got to be like, I mean, what are

785
00:33:23,360 --> 00:33:25,320
Speaker 1: we going to do at this point? I mean, you know,

786
00:33:25,400 --> 00:33:27,760
Speaker 1: it's like when the Ravens, when they were so elite,

787
00:33:27,760 --> 00:33:30,120
Speaker 1: they were like, just just don't turn the ball over.

788
00:33:30,320 --> 00:33:32,640
Speaker 1: You know, Trent Dilferd will take care of it for you.

789
00:33:32,920 --> 00:33:35,000
Speaker 1: We'll make sure we win. I could see it being

790
00:33:35,040 --> 00:33:38,120
Speaker 1: sort of somewhere kind of like that, And with Daniel

791
00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:40,680
Speaker 1: stepping in, I could see them basically being like, Okay,

792
00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:44,280
Speaker 1: all right, we've got at least some hope. Perhaps, But

793
00:33:44,320 --> 00:33:46,640
Speaker 1: I also think that it's possible that they're just done, man.

794
00:33:46,680 --> 00:33:49,760
Speaker 1: I mean, they're obviously out of playoff contention essentially at

795
00:33:49,760 --> 00:33:52,080
Speaker 1: this point, They've got nothing going on. So it wouldn't

796
00:33:52,080 --> 00:33:53,800
Speaker 1: be something where I'd be like, Okay, if Daniel's coming in,

797
00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:55,720
Speaker 1: I feel a lot more confident that the defense is

798
00:33:55,720 --> 00:33:57,520
Speaker 1: going to play better. I would just be like, maybe

799
00:33:57,520 --> 00:33:59,360
Speaker 1: maybe it would be, but I really would have no

800
00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:00,680
Speaker 1: real sense for it, you know what I'm saying?

801
00:34:01,000 --> 00:34:02,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, total, As.

802
00:34:02,160 --> 00:34:03,920
Speaker 1: For me, I'm out on the Bucks getting four and

803
00:34:03,960 --> 00:34:07,480
Speaker 1: a half from the Falcons. Is this just am I

804
00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:10,520
Speaker 1: just supposed to accept now that the Falcons, who were

805
00:34:10,600 --> 00:34:14,120
Speaker 1: just this doormat of the NFL, suddenly have a dominant

806
00:34:14,239 --> 00:34:17,120
Speaker 1: defensive unit like they've showed the last two games. I mean,

807
00:34:17,600 --> 00:34:20,040
Speaker 1: they were the worst team in football. Then they trade

808
00:34:20,080 --> 00:34:23,120
Speaker 1: Mohammed Sanu and they going a bye, and then suddenly

809
00:34:23,160 --> 00:34:27,400
Speaker 1: everything's fixed and they're still almost surely down Austin Hooper,

810
00:34:27,640 --> 00:34:30,960
Speaker 1: they're probably down DeVonta Freeman. Still, I'm just not ready

811
00:34:31,000 --> 00:34:33,160
Speaker 1: to trust them at this point because I don't feel

812
00:34:33,160 --> 00:34:36,200
Speaker 1: like I have any idea who they actually are. And

813
00:34:36,239 --> 00:34:39,720
Speaker 1: although I'm getting closer to feeling comfortable betting against the Bucks,

814
00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:41,880
Speaker 1: I'm still not really there yet. They have two of

815
00:34:41,920 --> 00:34:44,200
Speaker 1: the best receivers in the game. They can still stop

816
00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:47,760
Speaker 1: the run as well as anyone. It's really about Jameis Winston,

817
00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:51,239
Speaker 1: and even if you feel like they might cover, the

818
00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:54,680
Speaker 1: chances of this back breaking late in the game turnover

819
00:34:54,800 --> 00:34:57,360
Speaker 1: are way to gate. It's just a game where I

820
00:34:57,360 --> 00:34:59,239
Speaker 1: don't really trust that the Falcons are as good as

821
00:34:59,280 --> 00:35:01,520
Speaker 1: they've shown, and I really don't trust the Bucks at all.

822
00:35:01,760 --> 00:35:04,320
Speaker 1: So it's a game that I'm staying far away from.

823
00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:06,879
Speaker 2: I actually like the Buccaneers in this game. I think

824
00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:09,959
Speaker 2: that this line is completely fueled by recency bias based

825
00:35:10,000 --> 00:35:12,799
Speaker 2: upon those two big wins from Atlanta. If you look

826
00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:15,560
Speaker 2: at the way this matchup stacks up, the Bucks are

827
00:35:15,960 --> 00:35:18,320
Speaker 2: really lined up well to succeed against the Falcons defense.

828
00:35:18,320 --> 00:35:20,520
Speaker 2: Like the Falcons defense strength has been against the run,

829
00:35:20,840 --> 00:35:23,239
Speaker 2: but Tampa Bay has no interest in running the ball.

830
00:35:23,880 --> 00:35:26,480
Speaker 2: And ultimately I feel like the line should be maybe

831
00:35:26,520 --> 00:35:27,920
Speaker 2: three to three and a half. But at four and

832
00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:30,719
Speaker 2: a half, just the doors. The back door is going

833
00:35:30,800 --> 00:35:33,280
Speaker 2: to be opened all day for Jamis Winston, Chris Godwin,

834
00:35:33,360 --> 00:35:37,520
Speaker 2: Mike Evans, Cameron Braid, maybe rip O J. Howard, but

835
00:35:37,800 --> 00:35:40,120
Speaker 2: This is one of those lines that I think is

836
00:35:40,280 --> 00:35:43,839
Speaker 2: just too good to be true, almost or I don't know,

837
00:35:43,880 --> 00:35:47,359
Speaker 2: it's I just have no confidence in the Falcons, and

838
00:35:47,400 --> 00:35:48,880
Speaker 2: they've proven me wrong in the past two weeks. I

839
00:35:48,920 --> 00:35:50,839
Speaker 2: bet against the both times, and that's not been great

840
00:35:50,880 --> 00:35:52,759
Speaker 2: for me. But I feel like the buck has to

841
00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:56,320
Speaker 2: stop somewhere, and against a prolific passing offense like the Bucks,

842
00:35:56,920 --> 00:35:58,680
Speaker 2: I think it might be this might be the week

843
00:35:58,719 --> 00:36:01,160
Speaker 2: to kind of zig when everyone else isagging.

844
00:36:01,440 --> 00:36:04,440
Speaker 1: I totally get that, and I'm totally not by it

845
00:36:04,600 --> 00:36:07,040
Speaker 1: because there's just no way that I'm going to feel

846
00:36:07,040 --> 00:36:09,400
Speaker 1: comfortable enough going with Winston, who, by the way, remember

847
00:36:09,560 --> 00:36:11,719
Speaker 1: was limping pretty heavily. I get that they're kind of,

848
00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:14,360
Speaker 1: you know, poo pooing that injury, but he was limping

849
00:36:14,400 --> 00:36:17,560
Speaker 1: pretty heavily at the end of last week. It's just

850
00:36:17,600 --> 00:36:19,680
Speaker 1: not a game where I feel like they have a

851
00:36:19,719 --> 00:36:21,960
Speaker 1: way of breaking your heart. They've kind of done it

852
00:36:22,040 --> 00:36:24,239
Speaker 1: all year, you know, they did it against the Seahawks

853
00:36:24,239 --> 00:36:27,640
Speaker 1: that time, where it looked like an obvious cover at

854
00:36:27,640 --> 00:36:29,319
Speaker 1: the very least of not a win for them, and

855
00:36:29,360 --> 00:36:30,680
Speaker 1: they just find a way to blow. But I get

856
00:36:30,719 --> 00:36:32,680
Speaker 1: it here. I'm not going to take issue with your analysis.

857
00:36:32,680 --> 00:36:35,520
Speaker 1: It's more just something that I'm too terrified here to

858
00:36:35,640 --> 00:36:38,360
Speaker 1: back the Bucks. So for you, you are avoiding the

859
00:36:38,480 --> 00:36:40,839
Speaker 1: Bears laying six and a half to the Giants. I'm

860
00:36:41,080 --> 00:36:44,399
Speaker 1: avoiding the Falcons laying four and a half to the Bucks. Now,

861
00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:46,279
Speaker 1: before we keep going, I want to remind everyone about

862
00:36:46,320 --> 00:36:49,280
Speaker 1: our giveaway. It is a signed Odell Beckham Junior Cleveland

863
00:36:49,320 --> 00:36:52,520
Speaker 1: Brown's helmet. Our contest is running through November thirtieth. Here

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00:36:52,600 --> 00:36:55,080
Speaker 1: you can go to bettingpros dot com slash contest for

865
00:36:55,120 --> 00:36:57,799
Speaker 1: more details, but to enter, just leave a review for

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00:36:57,840 --> 00:37:00,480
Speaker 1: the show on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher and send the

867
00:37:00,520 --> 00:37:03,919
Speaker 1: screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com.

868
00:37:03,960 --> 00:37:07,160
Speaker 1: And an entry into any contest gets you automatically entered

869
00:37:07,360 --> 00:37:10,000
Speaker 1: into all future contests. So even if you're mad at

870
00:37:10,000 --> 00:37:12,319
Speaker 1: Odell Beckham because he hasn't been very good this year,

871
00:37:12,360 --> 00:37:15,319
Speaker 1: you'll probably want to be entered for our next giveaway. Anyway. Now,

872
00:37:15,320 --> 00:37:17,879
Speaker 1: the Beckham helmet, all of our signed helmets, they come

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Speaker 1: Pristine Auction dot com. That's p ri I s t

878
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Speaker 1: i n E auction dot com. All right, Greg, let's

879
00:37:36,120 --> 00:37:38,560
Speaker 1: finish up with our top prop where we each list

880
00:37:38,600 --> 00:37:40,120
Speaker 1: our favorite prop. Bet go ahead.

881
00:37:40,719 --> 00:37:45,800
Speaker 2: So you mentioned not stepping on your Odell Beckham junior prop.

882
00:37:46,080 --> 00:37:47,560
Speaker 2: I had to bite my tongue when you talked about

883
00:37:47,560 --> 00:37:49,680
Speaker 2: how good Darren Waller was going to be against the

884
00:37:49,719 --> 00:37:52,000
Speaker 2: Jets this week. And as much as I like the

885
00:37:52,080 --> 00:37:55,279
Speaker 2: Jets to cover that spread, I'm taking Darren Waller to

886
00:37:55,320 --> 00:37:58,560
Speaker 2: go over fifty receiving yards at minus two fifty. The

887
00:37:58,640 --> 00:38:02,000
Speaker 2: Jets have allowed the fourth views receiving yards to tight ends.

888
00:38:02,000 --> 00:38:04,799
Speaker 2: But here's a select list of the top tight ends

889
00:38:04,800 --> 00:38:09,080
Speaker 2: they faced through eleven weeks. Week one, the Immortal Tommy Sweeney.

890
00:38:09,120 --> 00:38:10,719
Speaker 2: I don't even know if that's a real person. Thirty

891
00:38:10,760 --> 00:38:14,280
Speaker 2: five yards. Week two, Demitrius Harris, week three, Ryan Izzo

892
00:38:14,360 --> 00:38:17,920
Speaker 2: week seven, Ben Watson week eight, Set the Valve week ten,

893
00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:21,360
Speaker 2: rtt Ellison, Week eleven, Jeremy Sprinkle and here are the

894
00:38:21,400 --> 00:38:23,799
Speaker 2: top tens from and here are the top tight ends

895
00:38:23,840 --> 00:38:26,480
Speaker 2: from the weeks that I skipped. Weeks five, zach Ertz,

896
00:38:26,600 --> 00:38:29,600
Speaker 2: Dallas Goddard combined for sixty eight yards. Week six, Jason

897
00:38:29,640 --> 00:38:32,720
Speaker 2: Witten fifty seven yards, Week nine, Mikaseeki ninety five yards.

898
00:38:32,840 --> 00:38:35,360
Speaker 2: So when the Jets have faced teams with more heavily

899
00:38:35,400 --> 00:38:38,480
Speaker 2: targeted tight ends, those players haven't really had any issue

900
00:38:38,600 --> 00:38:41,239
Speaker 2: hitting fifty plus yards. And because I already believe that

901
00:38:41,280 --> 00:38:43,160
Speaker 2: the Jets are a good bet to cover and perhaps

902
00:38:43,239 --> 00:38:45,560
Speaker 2: even win outright against the Raiders, that would mean the

903
00:38:45,640 --> 00:38:47,239
Speaker 2: Raiders are going to have to throw in this game.

904
00:38:47,280 --> 00:38:49,640
Speaker 2: That means more passes to Darren Waller, And so give

905
00:38:49,680 --> 00:38:52,600
Speaker 2: me Waller plus fifty or more receiving yards at minus

906
00:38:52,640 --> 00:38:53,120
Speaker 2: two to fifty.

907
00:38:53,400 --> 00:38:55,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean minus two fifty is obviously big number,

908
00:38:55,520 --> 00:38:58,120
Speaker 1: but oh yeah, he's going way over this one absolutely.

909
00:38:58,200 --> 00:38:59,840
Speaker 1: By the way, the point that you made, I know

910
00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:01,200
Speaker 1: this is a betting show, but you know you and

911
00:39:01,239 --> 00:39:04,520
Speaker 1: I both also do fantasy analysis. So I will say

912
00:39:04,520 --> 00:39:05,960
Speaker 1: the one thing is when you look at you know,

913
00:39:06,239 --> 00:39:08,920
Speaker 1: points allowed to opposing tight ends and stuff like that,

914
00:39:09,000 --> 00:39:11,080
Speaker 1: you should always consider who the opponents are. Because it's

915
00:39:11,080 --> 00:39:13,040
Speaker 1: the point you just made. You know, the Jets may

916
00:39:13,160 --> 00:39:16,400
Speaker 1: look good on the surface, generally in fantasy and generally

917
00:39:16,600 --> 00:39:19,240
Speaker 1: against opposing tight ends. But they obviously have not faced

918
00:39:19,239 --> 00:39:21,279
Speaker 1: a murderer's row, and anytime they do face anyone of

919
00:39:21,360 --> 00:39:23,480
Speaker 1: remote talent, if you want to call Micah sicky, that

920
00:39:23,920 --> 00:39:27,040
Speaker 1: then they struggle against them. So Waller here, I completely agree.

921
00:39:27,080 --> 00:39:28,319
Speaker 1: I think he's gonna have a big game. And it's

922
00:39:28,360 --> 00:39:31,160
Speaker 1: fifty yards. I mean, that's something that I think you're

923
00:39:31,200 --> 00:39:33,160
Speaker 1: not gonna be too worried. You're not gonna be sweating

924
00:39:33,200 --> 00:39:36,719
Speaker 1: over too much as the game goes along. I you know,

925
00:39:36,920 --> 00:39:39,839
Speaker 1: I mentioned what it might be as you referenced, And

926
00:39:40,280 --> 00:39:42,600
Speaker 1: for my top prop, I'm gonna go with Odell Beckham

927
00:39:42,640 --> 00:39:45,359
Speaker 1: Junior over one hundred receiving yards at minus one oh five.

928
00:39:45,400 --> 00:39:48,400
Speaker 1: So it's it's not the best odds, but this is

929
00:39:48,440 --> 00:39:51,319
Speaker 1: the week Greg against the Dolphins. This is the week

930
00:39:51,400 --> 00:39:54,160
Speaker 1: you basically laid it all out earlier. He's top one

931
00:39:54,200 --> 00:39:57,000
Speaker 1: hundred yards just twice the entire season. It hasn't been pretty.

932
00:39:57,320 --> 00:39:59,319
Speaker 1: He's got twenty two targets, though over the last two

933
00:39:59,360 --> 00:40:01,680
Speaker 1: games there's no Aan Howard anymore. The Browns are going

934
00:40:01,719 --> 00:40:03,960
Speaker 1: to win this game pretty easily, I think, I mean,

935
00:40:03,960 --> 00:40:06,160
Speaker 1: although they may not cover as you mentioned, you know,

936
00:40:06,200 --> 00:40:08,319
Speaker 1: they want Beckham happy, they need them happy. They're trying

937
00:40:08,320 --> 00:40:11,440
Speaker 1: to make them happy. Twenty two targets just nine receptions.

938
00:40:11,600 --> 00:40:14,120
Speaker 1: Some of that is on Baker, but his efficiency is

939
00:40:14,120 --> 00:40:16,360
Speaker 1: going to be much better in this game. This is

940
00:40:16,400 --> 00:40:18,240
Speaker 1: just it. This is a get right game for Beckham.

941
00:40:18,280 --> 00:40:20,000
Speaker 1: They're a get right game for teams. There are get

942
00:40:20,080 --> 00:40:21,960
Speaker 1: right games for players. This is one for the player,

943
00:40:22,080 --> 00:40:24,840
Speaker 1: without question. I'm very confident in this one. Odell Beckham

944
00:40:24,880 --> 00:40:27,040
Speaker 1: Junior going over one hundred receiving yards. I know you're

945
00:40:27,040 --> 00:40:28,000
Speaker 1: with me, right, Oh.

946
00:40:27,920 --> 00:40:30,040
Speaker 2: I totally am. And we laid out the case earlier.

947
00:40:30,600 --> 00:40:34,279
Speaker 2: My biggest fear would be that maybe he gets one

948
00:40:34,280 --> 00:40:36,920
Speaker 2: big score earlier in the game and then the Dolphins

949
00:40:37,000 --> 00:40:39,200
Speaker 2: just aren't able to do anything and the Browns lean

950
00:40:39,280 --> 00:40:41,399
Speaker 2: on Nick Chubb gareem hunt for the rest of the game.

951
00:40:41,560 --> 00:40:44,279
Speaker 2: I don't necessarily see that happening, though. I think that they,

952
00:40:44,520 --> 00:40:46,799
Speaker 2: like you said, they want to make Beckham happy and

953
00:40:46,840 --> 00:40:48,919
Speaker 2: this is the perfect matchup just to feed him over

954
00:40:48,960 --> 00:40:51,960
Speaker 2: and over again. And that's my biggest fear with picking

955
00:40:52,040 --> 00:40:55,560
Speaker 2: Miami earlier. And I mean it's actually kind of a

956
00:40:55,560 --> 00:40:56,520
Speaker 2: good hedge, to be honest.

957
00:40:56,840 --> 00:41:00,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, And really realistically. I think that you know, normally

958
00:41:00,400 --> 00:41:02,640
Speaker 1: a team gets ahead and they just sort of rely

959
00:41:02,760 --> 00:41:05,800
Speaker 1: on their run game. But you know they run Chubb heavily,

960
00:41:05,840 --> 00:41:07,800
Speaker 1: and they rely generally heavily. I think this is a

961
00:41:07,800 --> 00:41:09,919
Speaker 1: game where even if they get ahead, they're just gonna

962
00:41:09,960 --> 00:41:12,319
Speaker 1: try to basically be like, let's work out some kinks here, right,

963
00:41:12,360 --> 00:41:14,959
Speaker 1: we haven't been efficient with Beckham. Let's make them happy.

964
00:41:15,040 --> 00:41:16,400
Speaker 1: Let's have a huge game. So for me, I think

965
00:41:16,400 --> 00:41:19,239
Speaker 1: he's going to sail over this. I really have very

966
00:41:19,280 --> 00:41:22,000
Speaker 1: little hesitation about it for all the reasons we discussed.

967
00:41:22,200 --> 00:41:23,799
Speaker 1: All Right, that's going to do it for today's show.

968
00:41:23,840 --> 00:41:25,960
Speaker 1: Thanks again for joining me. Greg. Remind everyone where they

969
00:41:25,960 --> 00:41:27,200
Speaker 1: can find more of you in your work.

970
00:41:27,560 --> 00:41:29,680
Speaker 2: So I'm on Twitter at Greg Sauce and you can

971
00:41:29,680 --> 00:41:31,880
Speaker 2: find my work at two qbs dot com, where I

972
00:41:31,880 --> 00:41:34,600
Speaker 2: do weekly fantasy rankings, picks against the Spread, the Games,

973
00:41:35,000 --> 00:41:38,840
Speaker 2: the Gameplrobotics Spreadsheet, and I do the most accurate podcast

974
00:41:38,960 --> 00:41:41,000
Speaker 2: once a week over at four for four dot com.

975
00:41:41,560 --> 00:41:44,759
Speaker 2: On Mondays, I do a weekly recap and waver wire

976
00:41:44,840 --> 00:41:47,319
Speaker 2: show for them, So come check it out. Follow me

977
00:41:47,360 --> 00:41:49,000
Speaker 2: on Twitter and thanks for having me Dan.

978
00:41:49,280 --> 00:41:51,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, my pleasure again, Greg, is one of our most

979
00:41:51,480 --> 00:41:54,240
Speaker 1: accurate experts over at bettingpros dot com. He is also

980
00:41:54,719 --> 00:41:58,120
Speaker 1: an extremely accurate fantasy experts, so go ahead and follow him.

981
00:41:58,120 --> 00:42:00,440
Speaker 1: You get a ton of great information. Before we go,

982
00:42:00,480 --> 00:42:02,920
Speaker 1: I want to remind everyone about our sponsor bet MGM,

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988
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Speaker 1: And don't forget to leave us a review on Apple

989
00:42:18,600 --> 00:42:21,400
Speaker 1: Podcasts or Stitcher and send a screenshot of that review

990
00:42:21,680 --> 00:42:24,120
Speaker 1: to contest at bettingpros dot com to be entered into

991
00:42:24,160 --> 00:42:27,440
Speaker 1: our Odell Beckham Junior signed helmet giveaway. Good luck with

992
00:42:27,480 --> 00:42:29,680
Speaker 1: your wagers this weekend, we'll be back breaking down the

993
00:42:29,680 --> 00:42:32,560
Speaker 1: early lines for week thirteen on Monday