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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action all.

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Speaker 3: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 4: We're throwing in so spec I'm sitting it to cash Toti.

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Speaker 1: We see most gamble is when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 1: they go to wind.

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Speaker 3: That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate kabine.

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Speaker 2: You want to pass.

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Speaker 4: And we are underway.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. This is the recap

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Speaker 2: episode for week fifteen. I am Evan Abrams, director of

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Speaker 2: Research here at the Action Network, and as always I

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Speaker 2: am joined by the one and the only, Brandon Anderson. Brandon,

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Speaker 2: first of all, before we start here, what's up?

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Speaker 3: How are you doing well? Fun day of football? The

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Speaker 3: bye weeks are over. The late afternoons play was loaded. Wait,

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Speaker 3: we're excited for these games today, and I feel like

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Speaker 3: that they delivered. We had some good football.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we're gonna talk about everything, but we're obviously gonna

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Speaker 2: start with Sunday night football and I think we can

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Speaker 2: be pretty quick here. Green Bay Seattle. Green Bay wins

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Speaker 2: a game thirty to thirteen, covers the three point spread

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Speaker 2: on the road, total goes under forty eight. I mean,

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Speaker 2: this game felt like it was kind of over before

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Speaker 2: it started. Green Bay scores in its first four possessions touchdown, touchdown,

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Speaker 2: field goal, field goal. Now Seattle they go no three

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Speaker 2: and outs. But to me, it's just it's a turnover,

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Speaker 2: it's stalling drives. And after you turn around, Gino throws

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Speaker 2: the interception off his back foot into double coverage into

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Speaker 2: the end zone. Down seventeen to three, and it's just

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Speaker 2: a backbreaker. At that point, even before Sam Howell's enters

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Speaker 2: the picture, you say to yourself, this game is pretty

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Speaker 2: much over. Green Bay's leading twenty to three at the half,

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Speaker 2: and Gino gets hurt. Now I feel like I do

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Speaker 2: have to say this because I tweeted it out and

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Speaker 2: it's just insane how they couldn't move the ball literally

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Speaker 2: on any possession. So here is Seattle's drive yardage after

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Speaker 2: Sam Howell enters the game, minus two, minus six, zero

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Speaker 2: forty five. Now that's a twenty four yard touchdown run

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Speaker 2: by sharbonnek five minus six, minus four and eleven, which

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Speaker 2: is their last drive, all three rushes before they ended

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Speaker 2: the game. So at that point, you just can't find

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Speaker 2: yourselves back in a ball game. Then you're down twenty

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Speaker 2: to three against a Green Bay team that doesn't feel

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Speaker 2: like it's turning it over as much as they had

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Speaker 2: been before. Jordan Love now four straight games without an interception,

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Speaker 2: which is very positive for a QB who was leading

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Speaker 2: the league, I believe at one point. And then let

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Speaker 2: me just toss you some overall facts on the day

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Speaker 2: that kind of work into this game. So home dogs

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Speaker 2: this week went one in five against the spread. Overall,

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Speaker 2: they are thirty four and forty eight, having their second

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Speaker 2: worst season against the spread since three forty two percent,

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Speaker 2: and then you flip it. Road faves were six and

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Speaker 2: oh straight up this week entering Atlanta on Monday Night Football.

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Speaker 2: But they are thirteen and one over the last three

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Speaker 2: weeks and thirty three and eight since Week nine, so

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Speaker 2: they are kind of rolling right now. Teams will go

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Speaker 2: on the road laying points, and I think a lot

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Speaker 2: of us are trained to be interested in home dogs

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Speaker 2: and it just hasn't been the right way to roll

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Speaker 2: this year. And Sunday Night unders, which I tweeted out

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Speaker 2: as well, eleven and four this year and forty and

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Speaker 2: nineteen since twenty twenty two, so that's been interesting. I'm

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Speaker 2: curious just overall your thoughts Seattle, the Rams now both

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Speaker 2: eight and six in that division kind of knotted up.

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Speaker 2: Seattle now plays the Rams week eighteen. They lost to

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Speaker 2: them already. I can't believe the Rams are in first

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Speaker 2: place there. I know we have some Seattle tickets. Any

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Speaker 2: quick thoughts before we move to Buffalo Detroit.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, in a weird way, everything is Week eighteen now,

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Speaker 3: barring barring, the Rams and Sea Hawks both collapsed and

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Speaker 3: the Cardinals are still in it kind of, but the

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Speaker 3: Cardinals really need a lot of help still, They're going

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Speaker 3: to have to win out and get multiple Seattle and

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Speaker 3: LA losses. It looks very likely at this point, especially

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Speaker 3: for Seattle. It looks like they just need to win

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Speaker 3: that Week eighteen game basically that like, I think either

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Speaker 3: way either like so, they're tied right now. The Rams

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Speaker 3: won the first game, so they'd be the division winner

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Speaker 3: right now. But if Seattle wins that game, then they

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Speaker 3: get the typebreaker back I think because of division record.

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Speaker 3: If the Rams win that game, they clinch the typebreaker.

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Speaker 3: In a weird way, either of the teams trailing the

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Speaker 3: other by a game going into Week eighteen is kind

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Speaker 3: of gonna not matter, I think, because it's just going

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Speaker 3: to get down to that game either way. So I'm

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Speaker 3: less worried about Seattle losing this particular game and more

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Speaker 3: concerned that they now to play Minnesota with maybe Sam Howell.

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Speaker 3: That doesn't seem great. Sam Howell eats sacks, legs, going

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Speaker 3: out of style. Don't love that. I love the spot

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Speaker 3: for Seattle before this, I don't know what I feel.

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Speaker 3: I do know what I feel about it now. So again,

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Speaker 3: even losing that game not necessarily so terrible. I think, basically,

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Speaker 3: barring a weird Arizona thing, we are careening toward Seattle

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Speaker 3: Rams as that we eighteen Sunday night football for the

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Speaker 3: last spot. I think that's where we're headed. I can't

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Speaker 3: say I feel great about it. I got a lot

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Speaker 3: of Seattle Island futures. I bet a lot against the Rams.

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Speaker 3: I think that's basically shot. At this Pointing to the Unders,

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Speaker 3: you can't feel good. But Seattle's defense can lick its

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Speaker 3: wounds and get back. I still believe on that side

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Speaker 3: of the ball. They need to get Gino healthy for sure.

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Speaker 3: They need to get Kenneth Locker back out there. The

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Speaker 3: offensive line did look, you know, had some moments here,

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Speaker 3: So I feel like that's the overall spot, but obviously

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Speaker 3: a big win for the Packers to to kind of

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Speaker 3: slid by their position as well.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, Green Bay's only lost to Detroit Philly

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Speaker 2: in Minnesota this year, so not too shabby on their resume.

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Speaker 2: They don't have any real bad losses. And at this

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Speaker 2: point it's interesting that the AFC West and NFC North

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Speaker 2: look like they're about to get six of the fourteen

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Speaker 2: teams into the field. All right, let's keep rolling here.

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Speaker 2: Buffalo at Detroit Game of the day, and I think

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Speaker 2: it lived up to the Bill. Buffalo wins game forty

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Speaker 2: eight forty two, two and a half point dogs on

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Speaker 2: closed total sales over a close of fifty five and

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Speaker 2: a half after it went up from fifty four and

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Speaker 2: a half on game day. Got some steam there. So

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Speaker 2: this was the highest total in any game since Bill's

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Speaker 2: Chiefs back in October of twenty twenty two. Closed at

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Speaker 2: the exact same number, and right from the start, this

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Speaker 2: was a perfect, perfect start for Buffalo's offense. First three drives,

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Speaker 2: twenty five plays, two hundred and twenty yards, three touchdowns

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Speaker 2: in thirteen minutes of time. They chewed up some clock,

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Speaker 2: they drove the field, they had no issues, and then

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Speaker 2: the whole first half was just kind of a great movie,

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Speaker 2: right like Buffalo's going for it on fourth down, Detroit

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Speaker 2: gets the touchdown to Skipper Alan has the bomb to

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Speaker 2: Coleman with the added yards on the flag. It was

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Speaker 2: just a really, really fun first half, even with Buffalo

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Speaker 2: looking so good, and then kind of off the bat,

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Speaker 2: it was thirty five to fourteen before you even blinked

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Speaker 2: and you said to yourselves, Okay. The biggest issue with

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Speaker 2: this game is probably Detroit's defense and all the injuries

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Speaker 2: that they have piled up this season, which I believe

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Speaker 2: is up to like nineteen nineteen total players either injured

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Speaker 2: on ir Just an absolute mess from that point of view,

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Speaker 2: and it keeps on stacking on top of each other,

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Speaker 2: which tends to be a bigger deal. In the NFL,

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Speaker 2: we talk about compounding injuries, and I think that's what

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Speaker 2: Detroit ends up facing, even bringing in new bodies from

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Speaker 2: Buffalo side thirty five points today. At one point, they're

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Speaker 2: the fifteen all time to score thirty plus and eight

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Speaker 2: consecutive games within a season, first since the twenty thirteen Broncos.

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Speaker 2: I mean, they are on absolute fire right now, and

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Speaker 2: don't seem like they can even be stopping. It's mostly Josh,

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Speaker 2: who is now minus nine hundred to win the MVP,

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Speaker 2: kind of rolling away with that one.

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Speaker 3: Alert here For Josh Allen, there's al He's a football

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Speaker 3: player through and through.

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Speaker 1: Right there we go.

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Speaker 3: Runs an excuse me touchdown?

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Speaker 1: How many quarterbacks have you ever seen hurdle anyone?

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Speaker 4: Goodness, there's no fears, no way, he's so good.

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Speaker 3: Oh my god. The demands to do something about this

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Speaker 3: album rageous.

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Speaker 1: Man making louder and louder.

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Speaker 2: What else do you have here? I mean, there's so

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Speaker 2: many different angles within Detroit and Buffalo and the division

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Speaker 2: and even goth throwing five touchdowns and no picks and

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Speaker 2: losing the game just absolutely Absurdain, what do you got, Brendan?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, six yards short of a five hundred and five

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Speaker 3: game for Jared Dopp and he's like a footnote on

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Speaker 3: the game, amnaz, almost two hundred yards, he's a footnote

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Speaker 3: on the game. Josh Allen four and thirty yards rushing

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Speaker 3: and passing two touchdowns on the ground, two by air,

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Speaker 3: over ten yards per pass. Definitely feels like MVP is

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Speaker 3: a book? Is it? We're done here? Especially because again

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Speaker 3: we talked about this, Patriots, Jets, Patriots left on the schedule.

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Speaker 3: So barring just like a huge collapse against teams that

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Speaker 3: the Bills are just frankly way better than right now.

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Speaker 3: A big picture, let me start there. I think MVP

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Speaker 3: is a wrap. I think the Bills are really live

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Speaker 3: for that one seed. Still. There are two losses behind

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Speaker 3: the Chiefs, but the really only one back, remember because

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Speaker 3: they beat them had to head Steelers loss, so that's

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Speaker 3: probably not in it. We don't really think they're gonna

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Speaker 3: be the one seed anyway. I think the Bills are

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Speaker 3: gonna win out and by the way, we'll get back

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Speaker 3: to the Chiefs. But there's a pretty important injury that

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Speaker 3: happened with the Chiefs today, and I wouldn't be surprised

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Speaker 3: if the Bills are suddly sent at the one seed.

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Speaker 3: The Lions suddenly go from the class of the NFC

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Speaker 3: to tide for the one seed and tied for the division.

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Speaker 3: Now they have both type breakers, so they're still okay.

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Speaker 3: But man, you go from dream season Super Bowl favorites

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Speaker 3: to one bad game and suddenly you could be the

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Speaker 3: five seed really easily. Here you lose. I forget when

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Speaker 3: they play Minnesota. Week seventeen or eighteen, they play the

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Speaker 3: Vikings again. You lose that game, you're the five seed,

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Speaker 3: you drop out of the bye week, you drop out

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Speaker 3: of the one seed. You get, lose the home field,

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Speaker 3: you're playing on the road in Philadelphia. Now we know

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Speaker 3: about Jared Goff there. So to me, big picture, this

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Speaker 3: is easily the big takeaway from the week of football

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Speaker 3: to me digging into okay, well what about just week

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Speaker 3: to week? What do I make of this game? So

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Speaker 3: almost eleven hundred yards of offense is ridiculous, just like

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Speaker 3: similar to last week Bill's rams, you were like, I

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Speaker 3: got to run this back and watch it again. I'm

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Speaker 3: definitely watching this one again, like guys need to see

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Speaker 3: it all again. Here's the takeaway for me. So you see,

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Speaker 3: like just the yardage five fifty nine to five one,

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Speaker 3: Detroit actually had more first downs thirty to twenty eight.

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Speaker 3: That's a just buttload of first downs, twelve trips to

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Speaker 3: the red zone between the teams on the surface, and

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Speaker 3: the score six point game in the forties kind of

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Speaker 3: is like, ah, just classic shootout back and forth whoever

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Speaker 3: had the ball last. That's not what the underlying numbers

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Speaker 3: say and you can look at the early downs. Early

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Speaker 3: downs are a lot more telling of Okay, who dominated

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Speaker 3: on early downs, that's more telling. There's a lot more

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Speaker 3: data there. The Bills had for the game ninety nine

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Speaker 3: percent tile EPA overall and on early downs point four

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Speaker 3: to two per play on early downs. The Lions on

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Speaker 3: early downs zero point zero one EPA per play, like

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Speaker 3: barely fifty percent on sixty one early downs, So huge

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Speaker 3: sample from the game of the Lions offense. We know

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Speaker 3: the defenses didn't show up in this game, but the

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Speaker 3: Bills defense actually kind of did show up. The Bills

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Speaker 3: defense against the Lions did its job. They got those

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Speaker 3: stops early to get the big lead. What they didn't

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Speaker 3: do is the Lions end of the game on four

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Speaker 3: straight touchdown drives when it was like kind of sort

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Speaker 3: of mostly garbage time, right, Like the Lions got somewhat

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Speaker 3: back into the game, but never really quite. There's gonna

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Speaker 3: be a lot of conversation about the onside kick. With

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Speaker 3: about twelve minutes left, the Lions are down ten. Dan Campbell,

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Speaker 3: being Dan Campbell's has onside it. I don't have a

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Speaker 3: huge problem with it, to be honest, you're down ten

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Speaker 3: to a really good team at that point, like you're

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Speaker 3: pretty low chances to win, you gonna have to take

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Speaker 3: a chance at some point. I don't love it. It wouldn't

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Speaker 3: be my choice there, but I don't. I can can't

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Speaker 3: fault it. Your defense isn't exactly stopping them anyway, so

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Speaker 3: sure give yourself like a ten to fifteen percent chance

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Speaker 3: at getting the ball back. I think that we're gonna

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Speaker 3: overreact to Buffalo's defense. They did just give up forty

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Speaker 3: points two weeks in a row now to the Rams

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Speaker 3: of the Lions. I thought against the Rams, that's just

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Speaker 3: Stafford absolutely cooking, like dude was dealing, just hitting guys,

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Speaker 3: just diming them up. This game is the Bill's defense

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Speaker 3: doing pretty well for the most part when it mattered,

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Speaker 3: kind of taking this foot off the gas a little

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Speaker 3: bit late and third downs and late downs. The lines

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Speaker 3: did come through in a big way that matters. You're

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Speaker 3: gonna have to make a stop at some point, Buffalo.

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Speaker 3: But I think we maybe we collectively may overreact to

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Speaker 3: the Bills defense. This was a pretty dominant win by

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Speaker 3: Buffalo despite the final stats in score line.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I was gonna let me answer that both those questions.

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Speaker 2: You kind of brought up. So Detroit's remaining schedule would

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Speaker 2: be at Chicago, at San Francisco, and then they end

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Speaker 2: with Minnesota at home. And to kind of tell your

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Speaker 2: point about the early downs, I mean, even that sixty

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Speaker 2: six yard touchdown the amen Ra was on third and seventeen.

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Speaker 2: That's not predictive. That's just relatively some luck factor there.

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Speaker 2: So I do kind of think those numbers actually matter.

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Speaker 2: And then, yeah, I mean, the most interesting point is

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Speaker 2: is that Buffalo keeps playing these forty forty games. Detroit's

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Speaker 2: defense seems to be in a lull, and Kansas City

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Speaker 2: hasn't given up thirty points since the eighties, so I mean, interested.

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Speaker 3: That's also true.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it seems like they're kind of just

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Speaker 2: playing a different game overall. So to me, this is

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Speaker 2: an interesting note. I think it shows a lot from

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Speaker 2: Buffalo's offensive standpoint. I think defense leaves a lot to

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Speaker 2: be desired. But Buffalo also faces I believe New England

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Speaker 2: still twice, so there's a lot to potentially get right

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Speaker 2: before the playoffs. And I think you're right, a lot

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Speaker 2: of people are going to assume Kansas City is gonna

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Speaker 2: lose this game to Houston. This week. Assume it is

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Speaker 2: Carson Wentz. There're a two and a half point home underdog,

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Speaker 2: so we could see an absolute flip in a week

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Speaker 2: or so. All right, let's keep moving here. Great games today,

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Speaker 2: because this game might actually be at the top on

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Speaker 2: some other weeks. But Pittsburgh Philadelphia. Philadelphia wins the game

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Speaker 2: twenty seven to thirteen, covers the five and a half

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Speaker 2: point spread. Total goes under forty three. I mean, my

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Speaker 2: first note for this contest is Pittsburgh trails seventeen to three.

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Speaker 2: Philly finally starts well up ten three into the first quarter.

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Speaker 2: There wasn't really a lot to say, especially on Pittsburgh's

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Speaker 2: point of view, as they started with four punts on

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Speaker 2: first five possessions. Philly's kind of moving the ball up

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Speaker 2: and down the field. Pittsburgh had minus nineteen yards on

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Speaker 2: that first five possessions. I mean, there was legitimately nothing

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Speaker 2: to be done, especially through the air against the stingiest

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Speaker 2: pass defense in the NFL. When it comes to the Eagles,

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Speaker 2: and it showed. I mean, obviously they get into the

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Speaker 2: mix a little bit. There's a seventy yard drive Russ

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Speaker 2: fines Firemouth, there's a third down conversion or two, so

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Speaker 2: they end up finding it, but not if it would

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Speaker 2: have been there consistently throughout the game. I think Pittsburgh

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Speaker 2: might have found themselves down one score with potentially an

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Speaker 2: opportunity here, but the nause fumble probably ends the game

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Speaker 2: for them as leads to the Tush push twenty seven

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Speaker 2: to thirteen. You know, TJ. Watt gets hurt and all

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Speaker 2: of a sudden Pittsburgh can't find their way back into

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Speaker 2: the game. The one thing I will add, the Pickens

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Speaker 2: injury and missing from tests definitely was shown all over

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Speaker 2: the field. They had one play of twenty plus yards

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Speaker 2: I believe, which is the Calvin Austin now Pickens this

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Speaker 2: year is sixteen receptions of twenty plus yards entering this week.

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Speaker 2: That only trailed three receivers in the NFL. So obviously

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Speaker 2: we were missing the moon ball here, and I think

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Speaker 2: there was a touchdown or two off the board that

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Speaker 2: might have been there otherwise. So to me, that's probably

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Speaker 2: the biggest takeaway. I mean, Philly continues to look really,

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Speaker 2: really good. I mean, it's just a ten game win

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Speaker 2: streak during the and the last eleven games for Hurts.

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Speaker 2: He is fifteen passing touchdowns, one pick thirteen rushing touchdowns.

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Speaker 2: It's twenty eight to one in that category for what

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Speaker 2: he's putting on the board. Just kind of absolutely stupid.

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Speaker 2: Anything else you have here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, a lot of talk this week about Philadelphia fixing

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Speaker 3: the passing game. Fix Adia Brown DeVante both had one

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Speaker 3: hundred and nine plus yards and a touchdown each. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: Pittsburgh's offense, they had the ball twice the entire second half.

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Speaker 3: I don't know if I remember. We're seeing a team

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Speaker 3: have two possessions the second half. Here's why Philadelphia gets

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Speaker 3: the ball back buried down near the goal line with

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Speaker 3: ten and a half minutes left. They ended the game

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Speaker 3: on a twenty one play, eighty eight yard drive, just

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Speaker 3: running the clock out. They didn't even score, they didn't

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Speaker 3: need to. I just ran the clock out. Philadelphia had

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Speaker 3: forty minutes of possession. They had over four hundred yards

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Speaker 3: versus one hundred and sixty three for the Steelers. That's

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Speaker 3: just domination both ways. I think, like I know, we

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Speaker 3: talk about it each week. I think the Philadelphia defense

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Speaker 3: might sort of be the story of the league right now.

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Speaker 3: If you put Philly and Detroit on neutro field, I

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Speaker 3: think we would feel better about Detroit's offense still, but

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Speaker 3: the defense is looking like a chasm right now because

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Speaker 3: they're just Detroit's early defense Philly's late defense. That's the

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Speaker 3: ship's passing in the night. And I think we still

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Speaker 3: think of Detroit as the one seed in the NFC.

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Speaker 3: I wouldn't be shocked if we look back a month

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Speaker 3: from now and think today was the day where we

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Speaker 3: the changing of the guard day in the NFC apps.

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Speaker 2: The only thing I'll say before I move forward, and

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Speaker 2: it's kind of like a league wide picture a little bit.

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Speaker 2: We have a lot of really good teams, maybe even

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Speaker 2: great teams at the top here entering the playoffs. I

348
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Speaker 2: feel like this is maybe one of the more fun

349
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Speaker 2: setups we're really I can remember in history having lately

350
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Speaker 2: just a lot of good teams, a lot of good quarterbacks.

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Speaker 2: Hopefully it'll be fun. Next week Pittsburgh and Baltimore face off.

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Speaker 2: I know we're going to talk about that potentially later

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Speaker 2: in the show. But ten and four, nine and five,

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Speaker 2: you know, Pittsburgh's at one game up on them after

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Speaker 2: winning before, so massive matchup for that division. Okay, let's

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Speaker 2: I'm going to bring up my big stat here before

357
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Speaker 2: we get to the best of the rest. And this

358
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Speaker 2: is just something interesting I looked at before, and I

359
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Speaker 2: believe I mentioned it in previous weeks, and it actually

360
00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:47,159
Speaker 2: came into effect in Sunday Night Football, where teams deleted

361
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Speaker 2: the half this year are now eighty seven one, twenty

362
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Speaker 2: four and three against the second half spread, forty one percent.

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Speaker 2: Worst season we have in our bet Labs database dating

364
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Speaker 2: back twenty years. So even if you look last three

365
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Speaker 2: years over a seven hundred game sample, they're just forty

366
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Speaker 2: four percent against a second half spread. Now tonight, Green

367
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Speaker 2: Bay leads twenty to three, but even in the second half,

368
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Speaker 2: they were minus a half on the close, so they

369
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Speaker 2: don't get the cover similar situation. Here's the interesting part.

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Speaker 2: Only seven of thirty two teams are above five hundred

371
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Speaker 2: in this area when leading the last three years, and

372
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Speaker 2: the best quarterbacks are just Dak Baker, Trevor Lawrence, and

373
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Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson. So this has just been very difficult for

374
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Speaker 2: quarterbacks to overcome and to keep it up in the

375
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Speaker 2: second half, and you've had a bunch of comebacks. So

376
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Speaker 2: something interesting to keep track of going forward.

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Speaker 3: It's tricky because I'm sure that those trends are tracking

378
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Speaker 3: the closing line of course in the second half. So

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Speaker 3: I'm interested in could I be profiting if I know

380
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Speaker 3: who's going to lead at halftime, if I have a

381
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Speaker 3: good reado on who's going to be the better team

382
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Speaker 3: in the first half, like the Texans in the first

383
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Speaker 3: half when we get there, can I be profiting by

384
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Speaker 3: taking the Texans first half, not Texans second half for

385
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Speaker 3: the game? And am I like setting myself up for

386
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Speaker 3: some some value on the line because the line of

387
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Speaker 3: course is going to adjust a little bit based on

388
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Speaker 3: the fact that the team, as I head, based on

389
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Speaker 3: the team behind, is the losing script and probably gonna

390
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Speaker 3: close the gap in most cases. So I wonder if

391
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Speaker 3: there's more there knowing that the you know, especially a

392
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Speaker 3: game with a big favorite, for example, where you expect

393
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Speaker 3: the favorite to be out ahead early. Maybe that sets

394
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Speaker 3: you up for the second half spread, but you gotta

395
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Speaker 3: take it before before that line drops to adjust for

396
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Speaker 3: the early the lead that's coming. A little cat and

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Speaker 3: mouse game to look into.

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Speaker 2: Maybe yeah, there's also something there to potentially take the

399
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Speaker 2: team trailing just live in the second half versus touching

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Speaker 2: that second half number. Kind of knowing this information, but

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Speaker 2: all right, for another day. Let's keep rolling here, Washington

402
00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:49,320
Speaker 2: at New Orleans. So Washington barely survives twenty nineteen, but

403
00:20:49,400 --> 00:20:51,840
Speaker 2: New Orleans covers this seven and a half point spread,

404
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Speaker 2: which is pretty historic in itself. I'll talk about that

405
00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:56,320
Speaker 2: in a second before I toss it to you. But

406
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Speaker 2: the total goes under forty four and a half. So

407
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Speaker 2: the last time the Saints had closed above plus seven

408
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Speaker 2: at home in the Superdome was back in nineteen ninety nine.

409
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Speaker 2: So they start seven and a half today. Jake Heener

410
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Speaker 2: goes to Spencer Rattler and we kind of go from there.

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Speaker 2: What else you got here, Brandon? Yeah?

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Speaker 3: I mean the Commanders were rolling seventeen to nothing in

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Speaker 3: a halftime twenty to seven of the fourth quarter, facing

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Speaker 3: what's then the third string quarterback or whatever Spencer Ratler is.

415
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Speaker 3: Rattland in the second half, seventy one yard touchdown drive,

416
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Speaker 3: fifty one yard field goal drive, fifty nine yard field

417
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Speaker 3: goal drive, fifty six year touchdown drive. Carbon up the Commanders, like,

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Speaker 3: you know, they get the touchdown tomorrow with Zeros on

419
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Speaker 3: the clock, you can kick dex to point. You're the

420
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Speaker 3: Saints who cares go for two? They do. It's a

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Speaker 3: good decision. Don't love the little like running rollout play

422
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Speaker 3: with one receiver option. Could have done with some better there. Frankly,

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Speaker 3: it's the right result for both teams. The Saints don't

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Speaker 3: really want to win the Commanders.

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Speaker 4: We need to win.

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Speaker 3: Commanders should have just crushed in this game. They were.

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Speaker 3: They had the ball almost forty one minutes. The Saints

428
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Speaker 3: had only two drives the entire game over three minutes,

429
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Speaker 3: and neither of those even hit four minutes. So rough

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Speaker 3: on their defense. Except here's the one note that I

431
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Speaker 3: do have for the Commanders. You get the win. I

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Speaker 3: think they're pretty clearly to me easily the worst team

433
00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:15,120
Speaker 3: in the NFC playoff field right now, and they look

434
00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:17,800
Speaker 3: pretty safe now with the swin that they're lucky to

435
00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:21,120
Speaker 3: get one play could have flipped it. They gave up

436
00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:25,159
Speaker 3: eight sacks today. Jane Daniels got sacked eight times by

437
00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:27,000
Speaker 3: a Saints defense that was not making a lot of

438
00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:28,840
Speaker 3: stops or doing a lot of other good stuff here.

439
00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:31,680
Speaker 3: Daniels only had six incompletions, like he had a good game,

440
00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:34,679
Speaker 3: but eight sacks. That's not a great look for an

441
00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:36,920
Speaker 3: offensive line that was supposed to be bad coming into

442
00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:39,320
Speaker 3: the year. They're pretty low in my rankings, and then

443
00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:42,320
Speaker 3: they were looking really good first half the season. They

444
00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:45,280
Speaker 3: got a bunch of injuries, they thought they were getting healthier.

445
00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:48,280
Speaker 3: Hasn't looked good again. Eight sacks is not a great number,

446
00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:49,800
Speaker 3: So I think that's something to keep an eye on

447
00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:52,040
Speaker 3: with what looks like probably a playoff team here.

448
00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:57,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, Philly Dallas, I mean, I'm sorry, Philly, Atlanta Dallas

449
00:22:57,080 --> 00:22:59,440
Speaker 2: is what Washington has left on the schedule. And you're right,

450
00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:02,359
Speaker 2: I mean they look a little flimsy, especially with that

451
00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:04,399
Speaker 2: game in New Orleans today. You just you would have

452
00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:06,600
Speaker 2: figured they would have, you know, won by ten plus

453
00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:08,359
Speaker 2: and that would have made you feel better. And maybe

454
00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:10,920
Speaker 2: they should have at certain points. But definitely let them

455
00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:14,320
Speaker 2: get back in the game, all right. Jets at the Jaguars.

456
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:17,280
Speaker 2: So the Jets win the game thirty two twenty five.

457
00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:20,120
Speaker 2: They covers three and a half point favorite total goes

458
00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:22,920
Speaker 2: over forty one and a half. Now from my notes,

459
00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:24,720
Speaker 2: this is the battle the two worst teams on the

460
00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:27,440
Speaker 2: money line in terms of profit this year. JAG's now

461
00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:29,960
Speaker 2: the worst at three and eleven, straight up losing one

462
00:23:30,040 --> 00:23:33,040
Speaker 2: hundred dollars better eight hundred and seventy six bucks and

463
00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:36,439
Speaker 2: for the Jets. They avoid their seventh loss as a

464
00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:39,360
Speaker 2: favorite this year, So six losses as a favorite. Same

465
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:42,480
Speaker 2: to San Francisco. I mean, this one had a little

466
00:23:42,480 --> 00:23:44,400
Speaker 2: bit of chaos to it. So what else you got here?

467
00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:47,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, this one has no business being this high in

468
00:23:47,119 --> 00:23:49,600
Speaker 3: the rundown. But look it's probably the most entertaining game

469
00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:53,160
Speaker 3: of that ugly early slate. So back and forth all game.

470
00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:56,200
Speaker 3: I was invested because I was on Jets minus three

471
00:23:56,240 --> 00:23:59,160
Speaker 3: in this one, and look, Jets minus three had no

472
00:23:59,320 --> 00:24:02,439
Speaker 3: business here. The Jets are down five to late, they

473
00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:06,520
Speaker 3: get the touchdown DeVante Adams absolutely detonate in the second half.

474
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:09,160
Speaker 3: He finishes with nine catches, one hundred and ninety eight

475
00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:12,120
Speaker 3: yards and two scores, all in the second half. All

476
00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:14,240
Speaker 3: that was in the second half. Nothing in a halftime.

477
00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:16,720
Speaker 3: Get an octopus on the long touchdown and the two

478
00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:20,240
Speaker 3: point conversion. So Jets go from down five, get the

479
00:24:20,320 --> 00:24:23,680
Speaker 3: long DeVante touchdown, get the two point conversion, go up three.

480
00:24:24,040 --> 00:24:26,640
Speaker 3: I'm like, okay, great, I'll take a push. Lord, give

481
00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:28,639
Speaker 3: me the push, give me my money back. I'm out.

482
00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:31,840
Speaker 3: The Jets defense not good all game. Give them up

483
00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:34,120
Speaker 3: twenty five to Mac Jones. That's like the last four

484
00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:36,959
Speaker 3: games combined for mac Jones the most. They go right

485
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:39,400
Speaker 3: down the field, they get the field goal, and then

486
00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:42,560
Speaker 3: the Jets get right back down the field do the

487
00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:45,800
Speaker 3: thing they shouldn't and score a touchdown. You're not supposed

488
00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:47,320
Speaker 3: to do that. You're supposed to like kneel at the

489
00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:49,080
Speaker 3: one and kick the field goal, and this be over.

490
00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:52,760
Speaker 3: They get the touchdown, so we get the cover, because

491
00:24:53,080 --> 00:24:55,360
Speaker 3: whether you at Jets minus three or Jets minus three

492
00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:58,359
Speaker 3: and a half, you're looking at probably a push or

493
00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:01,480
Speaker 3: a loss if the field goal goes up. Instead, if

494
00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:03,680
Speaker 3: you were dumb enough like me to bet on this game,

495
00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:07,639
Speaker 3: the Jets get a pretty ugly cover here. We'll take it.

496
00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:09,879
Speaker 3: I appreciate the win. It's been a rough couple of weeks.

497
00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:14,720
Speaker 3: Brian Thomas for Jacksonville. Monster day for him, also ten catches,

498
00:25:14,760 --> 00:25:17,440
Speaker 3: one hundred and five yards and two touchdowns. I saw

499
00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:19,359
Speaker 3: some Rookie of the year top for him. I think

500
00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:22,840
Speaker 3: Jane Daniels is probably a rap at this point. Helpful

501
00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:25,080
Speaker 3: that he got that win. Helpful that bo Nicks had

502
00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:27,840
Speaker 3: not a great day today, but brand Thomas definitely looks

503
00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:29,640
Speaker 3: like a keeper for Jacksonville going forward.

504
00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:32,000
Speaker 2: I do think it's probably easy to be in that

505
00:25:32,040 --> 00:25:34,160
Speaker 2: locker room after the win where you can probably say

506
00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:37,240
Speaker 2: you've got the Rams, Bills, and Dolphins coming up, where

507
00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:38,840
Speaker 2: you might as well say they're all at home, and

508
00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:41,600
Speaker 2: you can play spoiler. Right, So let's finish off the

509
00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:43,800
Speaker 2: season strong and try to fight our way through these

510
00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:46,360
Speaker 2: three teams and see if you can ruin some playoff chances.

511
00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:48,760
Speaker 2: Probably the best thing you can say in New York. Right,

512
00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:52,280
Speaker 2: all right, let's go to the I'll call it the

513
00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:55,080
Speaker 2: what if game of the day because this one was

514
00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:57,359
Speaker 2: just this could you know, goes a lot of ways,

515
00:25:57,400 --> 00:26:01,160
Speaker 2: but Indy Denver. So the final score does not indicate

516
00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:05,280
Speaker 2: anything here. Because Denver wins thirty one to thirteen, they

517
00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:07,439
Speaker 2: cover the four and a half point spread. The total

518
00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:11,280
Speaker 2: actually pushes a close of forty four, which probably says

519
00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:14,680
Speaker 2: to how wacky this game was in general. The game

520
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:17,639
Speaker 2: first half wise, for the Colts, you can kind of

521
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:19,679
Speaker 2: see they were trying to get the ball out of

522
00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:23,200
Speaker 2: Anthony Richardson's hands and they had twenty rushes, some from

523
00:26:23,280 --> 00:26:28,479
Speaker 2: Richardson seventeen passes. Richardson goes five of seventeen for fifty

524
00:26:28,520 --> 00:26:32,320
Speaker 2: six yards in an interception, but they lead thirteen to seven,

525
00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:34,760
Speaker 2: and that's kind of an indication of what this entire

526
00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:37,720
Speaker 2: game was. Since Denver couldn't run the ball either, Bo

527
00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:41,560
Speaker 2: Nicks throws three picks with three touchdowns. It was just

528
00:26:41,760 --> 00:26:44,880
Speaker 2: an absolute mess. But it's all highlighted by the fact

529
00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:48,240
Speaker 2: that at thirteen to seven, Jonathan Taylor has a forty

530
00:26:48,280 --> 00:26:51,600
Speaker 2: one yard touchdown run and drops the ball before the

531
00:26:51,600 --> 00:26:54,400
Speaker 2: goal line. Now, if he scores the touch he pulls

532
00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:56,600
Speaker 2: it to Sean Jackson for all of us out there.

533
00:26:56,640 --> 00:26:59,920
Speaker 2: But if he scores the touchdown, it's twenty to seven.

534
00:27:00,400 --> 00:27:04,359
Speaker 2: Denver's now in a trailing game. Script, maybe Nis throws

535
00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:06,359
Speaker 2: you know, the same type of interceptions later in the

536
00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:08,719
Speaker 2: game and they can't get back in it. And this

537
00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:13,879
Speaker 2: one was virtually for Indianapolis's playoff hopes. They are still

538
00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:18,399
Speaker 2: mathematically in it, but basically this one kind of turns

539
00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:21,919
Speaker 2: everything and creates the biggest opportunity, I believe, in an

540
00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:26,720
Speaker 2: eight year drought, opportunity for the Denver Broncos to make

541
00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:31,720
Speaker 2: the playoffs. But this will always be remembered for probably

542
00:27:31,720 --> 00:27:34,280
Speaker 2: the Jonathan Taylor drop at the end zone. From there,

543
00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:39,800
Speaker 2: thirteen seven turns into thirty one. Thirteen Broncos, especially after

544
00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:43,880
Speaker 2: the Nick Benito picked six, which is now a humongous

545
00:27:43,920 --> 00:27:46,440
Speaker 2: defensive Player of the Year conversation. I looked at markets

546
00:27:46,800 --> 00:27:48,960
Speaker 2: a few minutes ago when we were recording. I didn't

547
00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:52,600
Speaker 2: see anything up, but he was forty to one entering

548
00:27:52,640 --> 00:27:56,000
Speaker 2: the week at a few sports books, and JJ Watt

549
00:27:56,040 --> 00:27:59,320
Speaker 2: obviously was the odds on I'm sorry, TJ Watt was

550
00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:02,480
Speaker 2: the odds on fait favorite. But he gets injured today

551
00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:05,080
Speaker 2: you assume he keeps going either way. Very interesting to

552
00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:08,040
Speaker 2: have that type of situation in back to back weeks

553
00:28:08,040 --> 00:28:12,000
Speaker 2: to basically send your team to a playoff opportunity. But

554
00:28:12,119 --> 00:28:14,919
Speaker 2: the thing I look at is Anthony Richardson overall, So

555
00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:17,679
Speaker 2: he has two hundred and fifty three pass attempts this

556
00:28:17,760 --> 00:28:23,120
Speaker 2: year forty seven percent completion percentage. Since two thousand, there's

557
00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:25,800
Speaker 2: only been two quarterbacks two hundred and fifty plus pass

558
00:28:25,800 --> 00:28:30,280
Speaker 2: attempts under fifty percent completion percentage Tim Tebow twenty eleven,

559
00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:33,199
Speaker 2: Achilles Smith in two thousand. Let me tell you that

560
00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:35,480
Speaker 2: is not a list. Anthony Richardson wants to be on,

561
00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:38,680
Speaker 2: even early in his career. And then to me, that's

562
00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:42,400
Speaker 2: the story. It's his play that's kind of let Indy

563
00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:44,400
Speaker 2: get into this spot because they can't rely on the

564
00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:44,920
Speaker 2: pass game.

565
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:49,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think so this This was a game that

566
00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:52,120
Speaker 3: I was on the under on. This was a hot

567
00:28:52,200 --> 00:28:56,520
Speaker 3: read hunder and the second straight week I hate this.

568
00:28:56,720 --> 00:28:59,240
Speaker 3: I was on the wrong side of a line move

569
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:01,680
Speaker 3: off the hot reach. I had forty three and a half.

570
00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:05,080
Speaker 3: We close up forty four, so we pushed the closing number.

571
00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:08,560
Speaker 3: I lost the hook. Now I'll say this, that was

572
00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:12,160
Speaker 3: the right read. The defenses were dominating. We're coasting your

573
00:29:12,360 --> 00:29:15,400
Speaker 3: under until like the Colts turned over the last four

574
00:29:15,440 --> 00:29:19,240
Speaker 3: possessions in a row down the game. We'd rather win bets,

575
00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:24,120
Speaker 3: not have fake wins. So yeah, rough ending. As far

576
00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:27,160
Speaker 3: as just like how the total goes here, it's how

577
00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:31,080
Speaker 3: Denver goes. Nicks actually did throw another interception after that

578
00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:34,280
Speaker 3: Jonathan Taylor fumble, it's still thirteen to seven. He throws

579
00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:37,160
Speaker 3: another bet pick, his third of the game. What happens

580
00:29:37,160 --> 00:29:39,800
Speaker 3: for the Colts They fumble the next play and give

581
00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:41,960
Speaker 3: it right back to them, and then that was where

582
00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:44,920
Speaker 3: like the avalanche started for Denver. So yeah, I think

583
00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:48,200
Speaker 3: I saw Depending on the model, basically, this puts Denver

584
00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:51,000
Speaker 3: close to ninety percent for the playoffs and drops India

585
00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:55,040
Speaker 3: like Tanner blow here, So Denver is effectively in even

586
00:29:55,080 --> 00:29:57,920
Speaker 3: though they've got a pretty tough schedule. Yet they would

587
00:29:57,960 --> 00:30:01,120
Speaker 3: probably have to They would have to lose out and

588
00:30:01,280 --> 00:30:05,320
Speaker 3: have one of the Colts or Bengals or I think

589
00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:08,800
Speaker 3: there's maybe one other team, the Dolphins. I think we

590
00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:12,160
Speaker 3: have to win out just to force a tie. But again,

591
00:30:12,280 --> 00:30:14,760
Speaker 3: like Denver obviously beats the Colts had to head because

592
00:30:14,800 --> 00:30:17,440
Speaker 3: they just beat them, had to head, So yeah, not

593
00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:20,320
Speaker 3: a lot of pass left here. Colts get eliminated from

594
00:30:20,360 --> 00:30:23,520
Speaker 3: the division with the loss here as well, Texans clinch there.

595
00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:29,280
Speaker 3: So yeah, the playoff picture Denver looking like they're gonna lose,

596
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:32,240
Speaker 3: Washington looking like they might have lost, would have made

597
00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:34,600
Speaker 3: the playoffs look more interesting. Instead, we might just be

598
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:36,520
Speaker 3: jostling for positioning at this point.

599
00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:39,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, we're gonna talk about the other AFC West team

600
00:30:39,480 --> 00:30:41,200
Speaker 2: in a second, but it looks like the AFC's kind

601
00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:44,880
Speaker 2: of locked, so NFC, I'm sorry. NFL next Gen Stats

602
00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:47,960
Speaker 2: has the Broncos at ninety one percent playoffs and the

603
00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:51,160
Speaker 2: Colts at ten percent, the Chargers at eighty seven percent,

604
00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:54,080
Speaker 2: which kind of says we're locked in here. I believe

605
00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:57,880
Speaker 2: Denver makes the playoffs with a win on Thursday Night

606
00:30:57,960 --> 00:31:00,560
Speaker 2: Football coming up against the Chargers, so it is a

607
00:31:00,600 --> 00:31:03,760
Speaker 2: win an in situation there. And funny enough, the Broncos

608
00:31:03,880 --> 00:31:06,479
Speaker 2: eleven and three against the spread this season, they are

609
00:31:06,520 --> 00:31:10,240
Speaker 2: the best team in the NFL in that number seven

610
00:31:10,280 --> 00:31:14,120
Speaker 2: to zero against the spread as favorites. Wild stuff, all right,

611
00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:18,800
Speaker 2: Bucks Chargers. So Bucks win this game forty to seventeen.

612
00:31:19,280 --> 00:31:23,320
Speaker 2: They cover his three point road underdogs, the total sales

613
00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:26,520
Speaker 2: over forty six. And this game kind of starts the

614
00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:29,520
Speaker 2: same way every Tampa Bay start game starts. They have

615
00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:33,080
Speaker 2: averaged three point seven points per game on first drives

616
00:31:33,320 --> 00:31:36,520
Speaker 2: of this season for Tampa Bay. And here we go

617
00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:39,360
Speaker 2: Baker to McMillan. They go up seven to nothing, and

618
00:31:39,400 --> 00:31:42,640
Speaker 2: they kind of never look back at some point, right

619
00:31:42,680 --> 00:31:46,320
Speaker 2: because they trailed. Herbert had two touchdowns at the half,

620
00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:50,000
Speaker 2: but the difference was the two turnovers in the first

621
00:31:50,000 --> 00:31:52,680
Speaker 2: half for Tampa Bay that kind of brought them behind.

622
00:31:52,720 --> 00:31:54,960
Speaker 2: And then the same thing we see every week from

623
00:31:55,080 --> 00:31:58,680
Speaker 2: Justin Herbert, which is he is now twelve and thirty

624
00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:01,600
Speaker 2: two against a second and half spread when leading at

625
00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:05,360
Speaker 2: the half in his career, just letting teams getting back

626
00:32:05,400 --> 00:32:08,720
Speaker 2: in and you see Baker. He finds Mike Evans twice,

627
00:32:09,160 --> 00:32:12,400
Speaker 2: Herbert streak ends in terms of the interceptions, and he

628
00:32:12,560 --> 00:32:15,160
Speaker 2: was you know, wasn't a great situation. He was pinned

629
00:32:15,200 --> 00:32:18,880
Speaker 2: back in his territory. He throws it up to Johnston

630
00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:22,320
Speaker 2: and at that point. The thing I think is interesting

631
00:32:22,320 --> 00:32:25,400
Speaker 2: from Baker's point of view, third and passing yards this year,

632
00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:29,560
Speaker 2: Third and completion percentage. Third and touchdown passes. I mean,

633
00:32:29,840 --> 00:32:33,840
Speaker 2: when he's trailing, he has thirteen touchdowns and six picks

634
00:32:33,880 --> 00:32:36,880
Speaker 2: and a seventy percent completion percentage. So he is really

635
00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:40,320
Speaker 2: getting Tampa Bay back in every game they trail and

636
00:32:40,400 --> 00:32:43,240
Speaker 2: at least making it competitive. And I think that's why

637
00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:47,600
Speaker 2: they sit in this position, especially with Atlanta floundering. Yeah.

638
00:32:48,120 --> 00:32:51,080
Speaker 3: The only concern that I have for the Charges going forward, well,

639
00:32:51,120 --> 00:32:52,680
Speaker 3: I guess not only I have a lot of concern

640
00:32:52,720 --> 00:32:55,400
Speaker 3: for the Charges going forward after this. We talked Box

641
00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:58,720
Speaker 3: a lot over the last month. They're sitting pretty Chargers

642
00:32:58,760 --> 00:33:01,800
Speaker 3: now have a defense that I'm losing faith in quickly

643
00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:04,360
Speaker 3: after this game. Certainly, I think it was twenty seven

644
00:33:04,360 --> 00:33:06,320
Speaker 3: to nothing in the second half, so we don't trust

645
00:33:06,320 --> 00:33:08,160
Speaker 3: them in the second half. We don't trust the defense.

646
00:33:08,240 --> 00:33:11,600
Speaker 3: Right now, Justin Herbert rolls the ankle again. And now

647
00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:14,040
Speaker 3: that you have played Denver on Thursday night in a

648
00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:15,800
Speaker 3: game that's probably not gonna be a lot of fun

649
00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:17,320
Speaker 3: to watch because it's probably gonna be kind of one

650
00:33:17,360 --> 00:33:21,040
Speaker 3: of those low scoring Thursday games. But if you want

651
00:33:21,120 --> 00:33:25,600
Speaker 3: drama in the playoff picture, the Chargers losing with Justin

652
00:33:25,640 --> 00:33:29,360
Speaker 3: Herbert injured creates some drama because suddenly they get to

653
00:33:29,400 --> 00:33:32,240
Speaker 3: eight and seven. After that, and at eight and seven,

654
00:33:32,720 --> 00:33:35,040
Speaker 3: three other teams with six wins, any one of them

655
00:33:35,080 --> 00:33:37,640
Speaker 3: gets one win, you're selling the only a game back now. Look,

656
00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:40,560
Speaker 3: and the Chargers play the Raiders and Patriots to close

657
00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:45,360
Speaker 3: out the season, so they certainly should do the job. Chargers,

658
00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:48,120
Speaker 3: do they ever should do anything they're supposed to side,

659
00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:50,920
Speaker 3: I don't know, Like maybe the door's open here. I

660
00:33:51,000 --> 00:33:53,400
Speaker 3: was getting ready to buy into this team, and I

661
00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:56,280
Speaker 3: bet the Chargers this game. They completely lay an egg here.

662
00:33:56,640 --> 00:33:59,120
Speaker 3: This wasn't even that close the way that the stats

663
00:33:59,160 --> 00:34:01,680
Speaker 3: turn Auty Tampa. They obsolutely ruled in the second half.

664
00:34:01,760 --> 00:34:05,240
Speaker 3: So this was probably to me the biggest surprise result

665
00:34:05,280 --> 00:34:05,680
Speaker 3: of the day.

666
00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:09,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Charges have lost to the Ravens. Chiefs and Bucks.

667
00:34:09,080 --> 00:34:10,799
Speaker 2: I mean, you can say what you want about that

668
00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:14,760
Speaker 2: tough competition, but how about this one. You mentioned the defense.

669
00:34:14,800 --> 00:34:17,760
Speaker 2: So since week eleven, Chargers are twenty first in EPA

670
00:34:17,760 --> 00:34:20,680
Speaker 2: per play on defense twenty third and success rate, and

671
00:34:20,719 --> 00:34:23,640
Speaker 2: their twentieth or worst in dropback and rush EPA on

672
00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:27,040
Speaker 2: D So definitely not the defense at least based off

673
00:34:27,080 --> 00:34:30,160
Speaker 2: opponent we had seen prior, allowing like fourteen to fifteen

674
00:34:30,200 --> 00:34:33,560
Speaker 2: points per game. All right, we're gonna go quickly now,

675
00:34:33,719 --> 00:34:37,440
Speaker 2: rest to the slates. So Miami at the Texans. Houston

676
00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:40,319
Speaker 2: wins the game twenty to twelve. They cover the two

677
00:34:40,360 --> 00:34:43,080
Speaker 2: and a half points spread, total goes under forty six

678
00:34:43,160 --> 00:34:46,080
Speaker 2: and a half. Storyline here is just the Texans do

679
00:34:46,160 --> 00:34:48,640
Speaker 2: their job again, which is covering the first half, which

680
00:34:48,680 --> 00:34:51,480
Speaker 2: is now twelve and two against the first half spread

681
00:34:51,480 --> 00:34:54,720
Speaker 2: this season, best mark in the NFL. And I tweeted

682
00:34:54,719 --> 00:34:56,560
Speaker 2: this one out and it's just crazy how this one

683
00:34:56,640 --> 00:34:59,600
Speaker 2: keeps going this way. So Mike McDaniel is one in

684
00:34:59,719 --> 00:35:03,320
Speaker 2: twelve straight up road neutral games versus a team above

685
00:35:03,400 --> 00:35:05,840
Speaker 2: five hundred. Pretty scary stuff.

686
00:35:06,880 --> 00:35:10,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, the offense just can't show up against a really

687
00:35:10,160 --> 00:35:12,479
Speaker 3: good defense, certainly with the defense that had an extra

688
00:35:12,520 --> 00:35:15,120
Speaker 3: week to prepare here, So yeah, I got this one right.

689
00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:17,520
Speaker 3: Joe Mixon leaves injured for a while, they couldn't run

690
00:35:17,560 --> 00:35:20,040
Speaker 3: the ball, doll. Honestly, just an ugly game for both teams,

691
00:35:20,040 --> 00:35:23,200
Speaker 3: Like Houston, did anyone play that well offensively? They have

692
00:35:23,200 --> 00:35:25,239
Speaker 3: one hundred and eighty one yards in a win and

693
00:35:25,360 --> 00:35:27,400
Speaker 3: what was kind of almost a comfortable win for the

694
00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:31,000
Speaker 3: most part. Here why four turnovers to a takeab low

695
00:35:31,160 --> 00:35:34,440
Speaker 3: was terrible in this game, three interceptions lost to fumble,

696
00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:39,520
Speaker 3: sacked three times, bad yards per attempt leading receiver in

697
00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:42,960
Speaker 3: either side this game, with all the weapons on these teams,

698
00:35:43,560 --> 00:35:47,160
Speaker 3: Lake Washington with fifty two yards, so just ugly game

699
00:35:47,320 --> 00:35:50,440
Speaker 3: barely hit four hundred yards combined. I don't even know

700
00:35:50,440 --> 00:35:52,040
Speaker 3: that it was a great defensive game. I think it

701
00:35:52,080 --> 00:35:53,759
Speaker 3: was just kind of an ugly game where neither team

702
00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:58,280
Speaker 3: really hit the mark. These are both teams, Houston and Miami,

703
00:35:58,320 --> 00:36:00,360
Speaker 3: that I think have been among the more disappo winning

704
00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:03,560
Speaker 3: teams on the season. The difference is that Miami's probably

705
00:36:03,600 --> 00:36:06,600
Speaker 3: out at six and eight. Houston clinched the division today,

706
00:36:06,680 --> 00:36:10,200
Speaker 3: so nine and five they're in. I don't know, maybe

707
00:36:10,239 --> 00:36:13,120
Speaker 3: Houston it doesn't really matter how mid they've been for

708
00:36:13,160 --> 00:36:15,480
Speaker 3: the first three months of the season. If they can

709
00:36:15,600 --> 00:36:18,560
Speaker 3: get some momentum here and figure some things out, find

710
00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:20,360
Speaker 3: some offense. I don't love that this is what you

711
00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:22,200
Speaker 3: get come out of the bye week, but we got

712
00:36:22,200 --> 00:36:24,439
Speaker 3: a month here, maybe they can find something. They're gonna

713
00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:25,479
Speaker 3: get a home playoff game.

714
00:36:26,120 --> 00:36:28,719
Speaker 2: I'm just sad we're probably not gonna get Texans Bengals

715
00:36:28,760 --> 00:36:30,960
Speaker 2: on that Saturday for the Wildcard, which I feel like

716
00:36:31,000 --> 00:36:33,000
Speaker 2: I've gotten seven times in my lifetime.

717
00:36:33,440 --> 00:36:35,880
Speaker 3: All Right, that's the playoff opener on a Saturday. If

718
00:36:35,920 --> 00:36:37,440
Speaker 3: I've ever heard of a matchup before.

719
00:36:37,840 --> 00:36:43,480
Speaker 2: Andy Dalton, TJ. Yates. Okay, Chiefs Chiefs. Brown's Chiefs win

720
00:36:43,560 --> 00:36:45,880
Speaker 2: the game twenty one to seven. They covers four and

721
00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:48,879
Speaker 2: a half point road favorites. Total goes under forty one

722
00:36:48,920 --> 00:36:51,440
Speaker 2: and a half. Really, looking at the box score, it's

723
00:36:51,440 --> 00:36:54,399
Speaker 2: pretty simple. The Chiefs had ten takeaways entering today through

724
00:36:54,440 --> 00:36:58,400
Speaker 2: thirteen games, they had six today. Almost thirty eight percent

725
00:36:58,440 --> 00:37:01,200
Speaker 2: of their turnovers for the came in one game, and

726
00:37:01,239 --> 00:37:05,480
Speaker 2: obviously Chiefs end their streak, their first cover since October

727
00:37:06,040 --> 00:37:08,560
Speaker 2: twentieth for the defending champs.

728
00:37:08,840 --> 00:37:13,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, Santa Jamis came to town five sacks, reinterceptions. If

729
00:37:13,680 --> 00:37:16,720
Speaker 3: they bench him, he might be done. Now. Dorian Thompson

730
00:37:16,800 --> 00:37:20,279
Speaker 3: Robinson comes in immediately throws an interception as well. I

731
00:37:20,280 --> 00:37:23,200
Speaker 3: think it's it's over for the Browns. Jamis has probably done.

732
00:37:23,320 --> 00:37:26,280
Speaker 3: Dt Hour is not a good quarterback. Nick Chubb breaks

733
00:37:26,320 --> 00:37:29,960
Speaker 3: his foot awful luck like for all the Lockkins that

734
00:37:30,040 --> 00:37:32,400
Speaker 3: he's had already this season to get all this turnover

735
00:37:32,440 --> 00:37:35,200
Speaker 3: lock and all the fumber recoveries in one game. However,

736
00:37:35,320 --> 00:37:38,279
Speaker 3: if we're talking about lock the main takeaway here from

737
00:37:38,280 --> 00:37:41,840
Speaker 3: the game. Chiefs offensive line not good. It is not

738
00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:44,320
Speaker 3: good right now. They allowed a fifty four percent pressure

739
00:37:44,400 --> 00:37:47,959
Speaker 3: rate to Patrick Mahomes when he was in HYA since

740
00:37:48,000 --> 00:37:49,640
Speaker 3: twenty twenty, and I have to say when he was

741
00:37:49,640 --> 00:37:53,560
Speaker 3: in because he took multiple big hits, left the game late.

742
00:37:53,920 --> 00:37:56,840
Speaker 3: He's quote week to week with the right ankle injury.

743
00:37:57,160 --> 00:38:00,480
Speaker 3: And as you said earlier, the Texans our favorite in

744
00:38:00,560 --> 00:38:03,720
Speaker 3: Kansas City on Saturday, which can only mean that books

745
00:38:03,760 --> 00:38:05,920
Speaker 3: are expecting Mahomes not to play. And I gotta say this,

746
00:38:06,760 --> 00:38:09,480
Speaker 3: why would you play him the next two weeks? I

747
00:38:09,520 --> 00:38:12,160
Speaker 3: know that we got these games Island games on TV.

748
00:38:12,560 --> 00:38:16,960
Speaker 3: They play Christmas after that you're playing Houston and Pittsburgh

749
00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:21,120
Speaker 3: with no blocking against daneil Hunter and Will Anderson and

750
00:38:21,160 --> 00:38:23,560
Speaker 3: then TJ. Watt and high Smith and all those like

751
00:38:23,800 --> 00:38:26,480
Speaker 3: these are two of the best pass rushes in the NFL.

752
00:38:27,880 --> 00:38:29,400
Speaker 3: Do you want to play for the buy or do

753
00:38:29,400 --> 00:38:31,839
Speaker 3: you want to just take the buyer right now? Like

754
00:38:32,200 --> 00:38:35,200
Speaker 3: I got my Carson jersey on today because the Eagles

755
00:38:35,200 --> 00:38:37,560
Speaker 3: won and Carson got to play, and my family's all

756
00:38:37,600 --> 00:38:40,880
Speaker 3: texting me Carson saying, like nobody else in the world

757
00:38:40,960 --> 00:38:45,640
Speaker 3: is excited, Carson is. In a modest proposal, play Carson

758
00:38:45,719 --> 00:38:49,359
Speaker 3: the next two weeks. If you get cooked, whatever, the

759
00:38:49,400 --> 00:38:52,800
Speaker 3: only thing you need to do is just get Patrick healthy,

760
00:38:53,400 --> 00:38:56,359
Speaker 3: find some blocking, and try again a month from now

761
00:38:56,400 --> 00:38:59,520
Speaker 3: in the playoffs. If he's not healthy, doesn't matter anyway.

762
00:38:59,680 --> 00:39:02,920
Speaker 3: So take your bye week now. Come with some losses.

763
00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:05,560
Speaker 3: I think we might be headed that direction here after

764
00:39:05,600 --> 00:39:06,200
Speaker 3: the injury.

765
00:39:06,840 --> 00:39:09,000
Speaker 2: And honestly, if you play wins both weeks, you'll probably

766
00:39:09,040 --> 00:39:11,319
Speaker 2: go one in one. Andy Reid will figure something out.

767
00:39:11,400 --> 00:39:14,800
Speaker 2: They'll find some voodoo in some way, shape, form or fashion.

768
00:39:15,120 --> 00:39:18,200
Speaker 2: All right, let's keep going here New England at Arizona.

769
00:39:18,719 --> 00:39:20,480
Speaker 2: I don't think we need to speak much about this.

770
00:39:20,560 --> 00:39:23,439
Speaker 2: I mean, Arizona wins the game thirty to seventeen as

771
00:39:23,600 --> 00:39:26,920
Speaker 2: seventeen as six point favorites. Total goes over forty six

772
00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:30,160
Speaker 2: and a half, just barely without the two minute warning there.

773
00:39:30,560 --> 00:39:33,759
Speaker 2: I mean, the whole game could have probably went a

774
00:39:33,800 --> 00:39:36,600
Speaker 2: different way if it wasn't for the Jonah Williams fumble

775
00:39:36,640 --> 00:39:40,600
Speaker 2: recovery in the end zone absolutely huge, basically makes the

776
00:39:40,640 --> 00:39:44,000
Speaker 2: game ten nothing Arizona versus three nothing with New England

777
00:39:44,040 --> 00:39:46,959
Speaker 2: getting the ball back, Arizona leads thirteen three at a half.

778
00:39:47,000 --> 00:39:49,799
Speaker 2: Both quarterbacks are playing just fine. I mean, Kyler's not

779
00:39:49,960 --> 00:39:52,440
Speaker 2: making mistakes in this one because he's not pressured as

780
00:39:52,480 --> 00:39:55,400
Speaker 2: much and he's facing a defense that's not really giving

781
00:39:55,440 --> 00:39:58,040
Speaker 2: him much to worry about, which seems like in this

782
00:39:58,080 --> 00:40:01,520
Speaker 2: one first half Arizona seven point three yards per play.

783
00:40:01,560 --> 00:40:04,480
Speaker 2: I mean, they were moving the ball relatively easily. He

784
00:40:04,520 --> 00:40:06,560
Speaker 2: gets hurt for a few in this game. I believe

785
00:40:06,640 --> 00:40:08,239
Speaker 2: Kylo is going to be just fine. But we see

786
00:40:08,239 --> 00:40:11,520
Speaker 2: a little bit of a Clayton tune which wasn't exciting

787
00:40:11,560 --> 00:40:16,160
Speaker 2: for Arizona playoff backers. But I mean Drake May's interception,

788
00:40:16,239 --> 00:40:17,600
Speaker 2: I don't know if you saw it in this one,

789
00:40:17,600 --> 00:40:21,880
Speaker 2: but literally hits Keyshan Boudi in the hands sixth straight

790
00:40:21,920 --> 00:40:24,520
Speaker 2: start with an I int for May but obviously didn't

791
00:40:24,560 --> 00:40:27,080
Speaker 2: deserve it. He honestly had a good day nineteen to

792
00:40:27,120 --> 00:40:29,839
Speaker 2: twenty three for two to h two touchdown at a pick,

793
00:40:29,880 --> 00:40:32,400
Speaker 2: but he also ran in a touchdown. I keep saying

794
00:40:32,400 --> 00:40:34,839
Speaker 2: this week over week, but I do think he is

795
00:40:35,280 --> 00:40:37,319
Speaker 2: part of the future for the team and they just

796
00:40:37,360 --> 00:40:39,960
Speaker 2: need to figure out ways to build around him. But

797
00:40:40,000 --> 00:40:43,280
Speaker 2: I kind of do like what I see big James

798
00:40:43,280 --> 00:40:46,480
Speaker 2: Connor day Trey McBride continues to do exactly what he does,

799
00:40:46,600 --> 00:40:49,040
Speaker 2: which is not catch touchdowns. So I catch tons of

800
00:40:49,040 --> 00:40:53,319
Speaker 2: balls and that's kind of it. I mean, Arizona and

801
00:40:53,360 --> 00:40:56,399
Speaker 2: this stat just basically says everything about who they are.

802
00:40:56,680 --> 00:40:58,919
Speaker 2: They are full Jekyl and Hyde and you pretty much

803
00:40:58,960 --> 00:41:01,040
Speaker 2: never know what you're gonna get, except for the fact

804
00:41:01,400 --> 00:41:04,240
Speaker 2: Kyler is twenty and eleven straight up versus teams below

805
00:41:04,280 --> 00:41:07,959
Speaker 2: five hundred and eleven and twenty five versus teams above

806
00:41:08,000 --> 00:41:10,640
Speaker 2: five hundred. So they beat up on the bad It's

807
00:41:10,719 --> 00:41:11,319
Speaker 2: kind of what they do.

808
00:41:12,800 --> 00:41:14,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't think there's too much more to say.

809
00:41:14,400 --> 00:41:16,919
Speaker 3: Cardinalis just get a win and you know, we'll see

810
00:41:17,000 --> 00:41:19,319
Speaker 3: the kind of hanging around there, so we'll get to

811
00:41:19,320 --> 00:41:21,680
Speaker 3: another team hanging around here with the Bengals. Yeah.

812
00:41:21,880 --> 00:41:25,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, Bengals win the game thirty seven twenty seven cover

813
00:41:25,400 --> 00:41:28,640
Speaker 2: his six point road favorites, total goes over forty six

814
00:41:28,680 --> 00:41:31,280
Speaker 2: and a half. Now, Titans moved to two and twelve

815
00:41:31,280 --> 00:41:33,400
Speaker 2: against the spread this year. They're just a fourth team

816
00:41:33,640 --> 00:41:36,200
Speaker 2: in the Super Bowl ever era to do that first

817
00:41:36,200 --> 00:41:39,640
Speaker 2: since the twenty sixteen Browns and Burrow just kind of

818
00:41:39,680 --> 00:41:42,400
Speaker 2: dominated great offense. What else you got here anything to

819
00:41:42,440 --> 00:41:42,920
Speaker 2: talk about?

820
00:41:43,680 --> 00:41:47,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, we're just super super goofy game. Ten turnovers in

821
00:41:47,320 --> 00:41:50,320
Speaker 3: this game, twenty six penalties for two hundred and twenty

822
00:41:50,320 --> 00:41:53,800
Speaker 3: three yards. Just a really weird game that, like, quite frankly,

823
00:41:54,360 --> 00:41:56,560
Speaker 3: is not that flattering to the Bengals. I look, they

824
00:41:56,560 --> 00:41:59,640
Speaker 3: were kind of mostly in control only because Will Levis

825
00:41:59,719 --> 00:42:03,880
Speaker 3: had interceptions on twelve passes. He gets benched. Mason Ruolph

826
00:42:03,920 --> 00:42:07,000
Speaker 3: comes in immediately carves up Cincinnati's defense because that's what

827
00:42:07,040 --> 00:42:11,200
Speaker 3: everyone else is doing. So in six days, Bengals barely

828
00:42:11,239 --> 00:42:14,440
Speaker 3: beat the Titans and barely beat the Cowboys to keep

829
00:42:14,480 --> 00:42:16,400
Speaker 3: their playoff hopes alive. I guess I don't know, I

830
00:42:16,400 --> 00:42:17,880
Speaker 3: don't need to see this team in the playoffs. Like

831
00:42:17,920 --> 00:42:21,439
Speaker 3: their defense is cooked. Bro, you're right, big game. Also

832
00:42:21,560 --> 00:42:24,640
Speaker 3: two interceptions and lost to fumble. That stuff counts as well.

833
00:42:25,280 --> 00:42:27,160
Speaker 3: Bengals are not dead, but I'm not sure that they've

834
00:42:27,160 --> 00:42:28,640
Speaker 3: been alive for a long time already.

835
00:42:29,400 --> 00:42:31,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, just showing you that they need to revamp the

836
00:42:31,320 --> 00:42:33,799
Speaker 2: defense and they probably won't have t Higgins if they

837
00:42:33,840 --> 00:42:37,560
Speaker 2: want to do that, all right. Dallas at Carolina. Dallas

838
00:42:37,560 --> 00:42:39,960
Speaker 2: wins the game thirty to fourteen, covers his two and

839
00:42:40,000 --> 00:42:44,520
Speaker 2: a half point road underdog total goes over forty two. Honestly,

840
00:42:44,560 --> 00:42:47,480
Speaker 2: Carolina streak of thirty three consecutive games as an underdog

841
00:42:47,520 --> 00:42:50,240
Speaker 2: gets broken here. But on the other side, they never

842
00:42:50,480 --> 00:42:53,960
Speaker 2: cover as a favorite. They've now lost ten consecutive games

843
00:42:54,040 --> 00:42:56,680
Speaker 2: against the spread as a favorite dating back to October

844
00:42:56,719 --> 00:42:59,440
Speaker 2: of twenty twenty one. Every other team in the NFL

845
00:42:59,560 --> 00:43:02,680
Speaker 2: has a leads three covers as a favorite during this span.

846
00:43:03,360 --> 00:43:05,360
Speaker 2: It's just unreal. I don't know what do you have.

847
00:43:05,440 --> 00:43:08,880
Speaker 2: I mean, we're never gonna see Carolina as a favorite again, right, I.

848
00:43:08,920 --> 00:43:11,120
Speaker 3: Don't know what we were doing here like that. They

849
00:43:11,120 --> 00:43:13,120
Speaker 3: have been covered a two and a half point spread.

850
00:43:13,239 --> 00:43:15,880
Speaker 3: They'd only covered a once in the last two seasons,

851
00:43:15,920 --> 00:43:18,680
Speaker 3: and it's that still as a present ten stat they

852
00:43:18,719 --> 00:43:22,160
Speaker 3: weren't even close here as much with domination as it

853
00:43:22,160 --> 00:43:25,560
Speaker 3: looks like Ricodoubtle, it's running all over them. Ceedee Lamb

854
00:43:25,560 --> 00:43:30,120
Speaker 3: as a big game, Bryce Young facing a slightly decent

855
00:43:30,200 --> 00:43:34,600
Speaker 3: defense suddenly not looking so good at six sacks, two interceptions.

856
00:43:34,640 --> 00:43:37,359
Speaker 3: Not great Carolina, first time favorite in thirty four games.

857
00:43:37,400 --> 00:43:39,160
Speaker 3: I think we get to wait another thirty four see

858
00:43:39,200 --> 00:43:39,680
Speaker 3: that again.

859
00:43:41,400 --> 00:43:44,120
Speaker 2: Let's just keep going that those teams are most likely

860
00:43:44,120 --> 00:43:46,799
Speaker 2: going to be out very soon. I know Dallas still

861
00:43:46,800 --> 00:43:50,800
Speaker 2: has a long shot, all right. Baltimore at the Giants.

862
00:43:50,800 --> 00:43:54,319
Speaker 2: Baltimore wins a game thirty five to fourteen, last game

863
00:43:54,360 --> 00:43:56,240
Speaker 2: on the slate before we get to Monday Night football.

864
00:43:56,239 --> 00:43:59,719
Speaker 2: But they cover a sixteen and a half point road

865
00:43:59,719 --> 00:44:02,760
Speaker 2: fav its total goes over forty three and a half.

866
00:44:03,040 --> 00:44:06,200
Speaker 2: I mean, this was the largest spread for the Giants

867
00:44:06,320 --> 00:44:09,600
Speaker 2: in a home game since nineteen sixty six, and it

868
00:44:10,040 --> 00:44:13,640
Speaker 2: showed most of the time. I mean, between DeVito, they

869
00:44:13,719 --> 00:44:15,880
Speaker 2: just really didn't have much offense to show here. I

870
00:44:15,880 --> 00:44:17,719
Speaker 2: believe there was a touchdown to Neighbors in there, but

871
00:44:18,000 --> 00:44:18,920
Speaker 2: Lamar looked great.

872
00:44:19,080 --> 00:44:22,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, Lamar. Five touchdowns, two hundred and ninety yards, sixty

873
00:44:22,400 --> 00:44:25,520
Speaker 3: five yards rushing. It's a scrimmage basically. The way their

874
00:44:25,520 --> 00:44:29,759
Speaker 3: offense is playing nine nine percentile EPA success rate, first

875
00:44:29,800 --> 00:44:32,040
Speaker 3: down percent, all those things you can't do any better.

876
00:44:32,320 --> 00:44:34,600
Speaker 3: I had my notes here. I took this as a

877
00:44:34,600 --> 00:44:37,239
Speaker 3: plus nine to eighty Giants money line, just on the

878
00:44:37,320 --> 00:44:41,200
Speaker 3: number alone. Man, we got screwed. Tommy DeVito goes down her.

879
00:44:41,239 --> 00:44:43,120
Speaker 3: We had this thing in the bag. It was fourteen

880
00:44:43,160 --> 00:44:46,759
Speaker 3: to seven. Don't give me Tim Boyle. Tim Boyle, you're

881
00:44:46,800 --> 00:44:49,560
Speaker 3: in the league still, Like Tim Boyle, he of Thanksgiving

882
00:44:49,600 --> 00:44:51,719
Speaker 3: fame from a few years ago from the Lions. Like,

883
00:44:52,000 --> 00:44:54,400
Speaker 3: how was this dude playing football still in the NFL.

884
00:44:54,480 --> 00:44:57,680
Speaker 3: I don't know, Ravens. This is what you're supposed to

885
00:44:57,680 --> 00:44:59,880
Speaker 3: do when you play a terrible team, blow them on

886
00:45:00,160 --> 00:45:02,839
Speaker 3: the water. So credit where it's due. They did the thing.

887
00:45:03,360 --> 00:45:06,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, Tim Boyle is my worst quarterback in the NFL.

888
00:45:06,120 --> 00:45:08,400
Speaker 2: I've said I think I said this on previous podcasts,

889
00:45:08,640 --> 00:45:10,320
Speaker 2: and I was shocked when he threw the touchdown, so

890
00:45:10,360 --> 00:45:11,920
Speaker 2: I couldn't really tweet anything. I mean, he did have

891
00:45:11,960 --> 00:45:15,360
Speaker 2: a touchdown pass today, let's move to Monday Night Football.

892
00:45:15,400 --> 00:45:27,960
Speaker 2: So we've got a doubleheader Bears, Vikings and Falcons and

893
00:45:28,000 --> 00:45:31,520
Speaker 2: the Raiders. Right now, it believes Desmond Ridder will be

894
00:45:31,520 --> 00:45:34,719
Speaker 2: getting the start, I think for the Raiders, but I

895
00:45:34,719 --> 00:45:36,600
Speaker 2: don't know if that's been confirmed, but I believe that

896
00:45:36,719 --> 00:45:39,839
Speaker 2: is the truth. So with that being said, we get

897
00:45:39,880 --> 00:45:43,920
Speaker 2: a revenge game with Ritter facing the Falcons here and

898
00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:46,160
Speaker 2: to just talk about two angles on both sides, and

899
00:45:46,200 --> 00:45:48,359
Speaker 2: I'll give you a bet that I was on. So

900
00:45:48,520 --> 00:45:52,000
Speaker 2: Ritter and Caleb Williams have both struggled in first half.

901
00:45:52,040 --> 00:45:54,920
Speaker 2: So Caleb is four and nine first half ats and

902
00:45:55,040 --> 00:45:57,840
Speaker 2: Owens six on the road, and Ridder is five and

903
00:45:57,960 --> 00:46:01,319
Speaker 2: twelve first half ats in this in their careers. So

904
00:46:02,160 --> 00:46:04,120
Speaker 2: just kind of had trouble starting in both of those

905
00:46:04,120 --> 00:46:07,120
Speaker 2: atmospheres and the one other one which kind of gets

906
00:46:07,239 --> 00:46:09,840
Speaker 2: all the flub and everyone talks about his cousins in

907
00:46:09,880 --> 00:46:12,640
Speaker 2: prime time. So he began his career zero to nine

908
00:46:12,680 --> 00:46:15,200
Speaker 2: on Monday Night football. He's actually won four of his

909
00:46:15,320 --> 00:46:18,640
Speaker 2: last five starts, so kind of flipping the situation there,

910
00:46:18,640 --> 00:46:20,840
Speaker 2: I think we can put that well behind us. The

911
00:46:20,880 --> 00:46:23,200
Speaker 2: one bet I like I put in the app Young

912
00:46:23,200 --> 00:46:25,719
Speaker 2: Waiku over one and a half field goals. I know

913
00:46:25,800 --> 00:46:28,279
Speaker 2: Max Crosby out on the other side, but Raiders do

914
00:46:28,360 --> 00:46:31,560
Speaker 2: a decent job at stopping offenses in the red zone,

915
00:46:31,640 --> 00:46:34,480
Speaker 2: and they also allow a but ton of field goals,

916
00:46:34,760 --> 00:46:37,879
Speaker 2: so I think that is an opportunity indoors for him.

917
00:46:38,400 --> 00:46:39,239
Speaker 2: But what do you like here?

918
00:46:39,360 --> 00:46:41,600
Speaker 3: All right, well, let me start. I got one responsible

919
00:46:41,640 --> 00:46:44,800
Speaker 3: pick and one off the rail pick, so let's start responsible.

920
00:46:45,320 --> 00:46:47,800
Speaker 3: So Vikings that beat the Bears six of the last seven.

921
00:46:48,320 --> 00:46:50,520
Speaker 3: Eight out of ten games between these teams have been

922
00:46:50,600 --> 00:46:54,440
Speaker 3: one score outing, So Chicago plus seven. I think you

923
00:46:54,480 --> 00:46:56,720
Speaker 3: have to lean Bears if you want to side here.

924
00:46:57,360 --> 00:47:00,520
Speaker 3: If you want props, I like Dj Moore, Kings have

925
00:47:00,560 --> 00:47:04,280
Speaker 3: not been good against spide receiver ones. Jordan Addison crushed

926
00:47:04,280 --> 00:47:06,239
Speaker 3: the bearris a month ago eight catches, one hundred and

927
00:47:06,239 --> 00:47:08,840
Speaker 3: sixty two yards and a touchdown. Bears have been bottomed

928
00:47:08,840 --> 00:47:12,000
Speaker 3: three against wide receiver two, so I think Addison props

929
00:47:12,040 --> 00:47:14,319
Speaker 3: a good way to go. I bet the under on

930
00:47:14,360 --> 00:47:16,360
Speaker 3: this one already. We talked about this, I think a

931
00:47:16,360 --> 00:47:19,080
Speaker 3: week ago, So that's my pick here under forty three

932
00:47:19,120 --> 00:47:21,560
Speaker 3: and a half. Both teams are still eight and five

933
00:47:21,600 --> 00:47:23,920
Speaker 3: to the under this line. Moved up a little bit

934
00:47:23,960 --> 00:47:27,080
Speaker 3: from a week ago because they both had big games scoring.

935
00:47:27,160 --> 00:47:28,880
Speaker 3: But I think we're just get a free point here.

936
00:47:29,360 --> 00:47:32,000
Speaker 3: Sunday Monday Night under since twenty nineteen to sixty one

937
00:47:32,080 --> 00:47:36,000
Speaker 3: percent Monday Night Football Division game unders fifty seven percent

938
00:47:36,040 --> 00:47:39,719
Speaker 3: to the under last two decades, Week fourteen and later

939
00:47:39,840 --> 00:47:43,719
Speaker 3: Division matchups home favorite of seven or less under his

940
00:47:43,760 --> 00:47:47,360
Speaker 3: fifty seven percent total in this forties ish range fifty

941
00:47:47,400 --> 00:47:50,480
Speaker 3: six percent to the under. This is a game that

942
00:47:50,760 --> 00:47:52,920
Speaker 3: closed a month ago at thirty nine and a half.

943
00:47:53,360 --> 00:47:54,879
Speaker 3: Now we're at forty three and a half. We're going

944
00:47:54,800 --> 00:47:57,520
Speaker 3: to four three points basically. Now, look it went over

945
00:47:57,560 --> 00:48:01,319
Speaker 3: in that game thirty to twenty seven in overtime. It's

946
00:48:01,360 --> 00:48:03,879
Speaker 3: only the third time in fifteen games with team these

947
00:48:03,920 --> 00:48:07,520
Speaker 3: teams that either team hit thirty points during that stretch,

948
00:48:07,880 --> 00:48:11,520
Speaker 3: averaging under thirty nine points a game between them forty

949
00:48:11,520 --> 00:48:14,480
Speaker 3: five or less in eleven out of fifteen. So I

950
00:48:14,600 --> 00:48:17,280
Speaker 3: like the under under forty three and a half. Wherever

951
00:48:17,280 --> 00:48:20,040
Speaker 3: you get at best in that range, that's the responsible pick.

952
00:48:20,760 --> 00:48:24,080
Speaker 3: Then to the other game. I needed something. I need

953
00:48:24,080 --> 00:48:27,760
Speaker 3: something for the game I wanted. I can't help feeling

954
00:48:27,840 --> 00:48:30,880
Speaker 3: like I don't even play fantasy football anymore. I'm retired.

955
00:48:31,160 --> 00:48:35,080
Speaker 3: I'm out on top. Sincere McCormick feels like a Fantasy

956
00:48:35,080 --> 00:48:38,319
Speaker 3: Football League winner. Nobody even heard of this dude like

957
00:48:38,320 --> 00:48:40,879
Speaker 3: three weeks ago. He's the exact sort of guy that's

958
00:48:40,880 --> 00:48:42,719
Speaker 3: gonna come up and play like some big games the

959
00:48:42,800 --> 00:48:44,560
Speaker 3: next couple of weeks. So I don't hate if you

960
00:48:44,560 --> 00:48:47,799
Speaker 3: just want to go with that. Here's my totally responsible play.

961
00:48:48,239 --> 00:48:51,279
Speaker 3: Remember Texans Island from last year, Texans Island all the

962
00:48:51,320 --> 00:48:54,200
Speaker 3: way to the division. I had two islands to start

963
00:48:54,200 --> 00:48:58,240
Speaker 3: the season. I started on Texans Island and Falcons Island.

964
00:48:58,600 --> 00:49:02,680
Speaker 3: At a front row seats to the Desmond Ridder disaster.

965
00:49:02,880 --> 00:49:05,759
Speaker 3: I watched a lot of dozen Ridder last year. This

966
00:49:05,840 --> 00:49:10,000
Speaker 3: dude's not an NFL quarterback. However, he's a pretty good runner.

967
00:49:10,640 --> 00:49:14,480
Speaker 3: Dezen Radder plus four fifty to score touchdown. And anytime

968
00:49:14,520 --> 00:49:16,719
Speaker 3: touchdown you gotta run it in, my friend, or catch

969
00:49:16,719 --> 00:49:18,120
Speaker 3: it if you need to. I don't care how you

970
00:49:18,160 --> 00:49:20,960
Speaker 3: get there. Joe Golant stamp of approval on this one.

971
00:49:20,960 --> 00:49:23,720
Speaker 3: I know he's writing this one up as well. Last season,

972
00:49:24,280 --> 00:49:28,120
Speaker 3: Ridder did have five rushing touchdowns. He would have had six.

973
00:49:28,800 --> 00:49:30,680
Speaker 3: If there's a stupid game against the Bucks. If you

974
00:49:30,760 --> 00:49:33,799
Speaker 3: recall where, like late in the game he's running, he's

975
00:49:33,840 --> 00:49:36,640
Speaker 3: clearly gonna score, and he slows down before the end zone,

976
00:49:36,640 --> 00:49:38,319
Speaker 3: he gets the ball knocked out out of the end

977
00:49:38,400 --> 00:49:41,680
Speaker 3: zone for a touchback. Five rushing touchdowns, as it is

978
00:49:42,080 --> 00:49:45,680
Speaker 3: fourth most among all quarterbacks, tied with Lamar Jackson last year.

979
00:49:46,000 --> 00:49:48,000
Speaker 3: Like five is a real number, plus four fifty is

980
00:49:48,040 --> 00:49:53,360
Speaker 3: a good number. That's not so irresponsible. But I noticed

981
00:49:53,440 --> 00:49:57,640
Speaker 3: from watching last year Ridder panics late in the game

982
00:49:58,080 --> 00:50:00,960
Speaker 3: and only trusts his legs if the game is still

983
00:50:01,040 --> 00:50:03,239
Speaker 3: kind of close or if they're doing a garbage time

984
00:50:03,280 --> 00:50:06,040
Speaker 3: sort of drive. He loves to run late in the game.

985
00:50:06,200 --> 00:50:09,400
Speaker 3: Twice last year he had the last touchdown in the game,

986
00:50:09,800 --> 00:50:12,440
Speaker 3: and in both Bocks games he should have had the

987
00:50:12,480 --> 00:50:14,360
Speaker 3: last touchdown in the game that one play I just

988
00:50:14,480 --> 00:50:17,080
Speaker 3: mentioned and another one where he had a late touchdown,

989
00:50:17,320 --> 00:50:19,520
Speaker 3: they gave up a touchdown with like thirty seconds left,

990
00:50:19,800 --> 00:50:22,240
Speaker 3: So I'm counting that as half a win for each

991
00:50:22,640 --> 00:50:26,799
Speaker 3: three last touchdowns. Last year, Desmond Raider twenty five to

992
00:50:26,880 --> 00:50:30,200
Speaker 3: one to get the last touchdown in this game and

993
00:50:30,239 --> 00:50:32,680
Speaker 3: then to just take the escalator all the way up.

994
00:50:33,360 --> 00:50:35,920
Speaker 3: Since Kirk Cousins can't show up in Monday at football

995
00:50:35,960 --> 00:50:39,759
Speaker 3: four and ten. Ats how about a Desmond Ridder revenge

996
00:50:39,840 --> 00:50:45,080
Speaker 3: game last touchdown in a win sixty to one. That's

997
00:50:45,160 --> 00:50:49,320
Speaker 3: my Desmond Raider, completely a responsible escalator. Please bet pizza

998
00:50:49,360 --> 00:50:51,719
Speaker 3: money only on it, But why not have a little fun.

999
00:50:51,760 --> 00:50:53,800
Speaker 3: We gotta watch this garbage game on the second screen.

1000
00:50:53,840 --> 00:50:55,200
Speaker 3: We may as well win something on it.

1001
00:50:55,840 --> 00:51:00,600
Speaker 2: And you can add Ridder second half anytime touchdown on that.

1002
00:51:00,800 --> 00:51:04,800
Speaker 2: Because that actually it's not guaranteed by last touchdown, you

1003
00:51:04,920 --> 00:51:07,239
Speaker 2: might as well. You might as well juice that up

1004
00:51:07,280 --> 00:51:09,920
Speaker 2: a little bit. And please, if you're gonna be responsible

1005
00:51:09,960 --> 00:51:12,319
Speaker 2: and put some small pizza money on what Brandon just said,

1006
00:51:12,520 --> 00:51:14,920
Speaker 2: you might as well also put it on Atlanta to

1007
00:51:14,960 --> 00:51:18,000
Speaker 2: have the first touchdown or some other reason for rit

1008
00:51:18,080 --> 00:51:20,600
Speaker 2: Or to throw the ball to the other team. So

1009
00:51:20,640 --> 00:51:22,640
Speaker 2: at least if he uses his legs, you're gonna win

1010
00:51:22,680 --> 00:51:25,160
Speaker 2: the bet. But on the other scenario that he pulls

1011
00:51:25,200 --> 00:51:27,080
Speaker 2: exactly what he's done every other time in his career,

1012
00:51:27,120 --> 00:51:29,239
Speaker 2: you might as well have a small ticket on that

1013
00:51:29,400 --> 00:51:31,800
Speaker 2: as well. All right, well, that is Monday night football,

1014
00:51:31,840 --> 00:51:33,439
Speaker 2: So now we were going to get into your hot

1015
00:51:33,520 --> 00:51:38,520
Speaker 2: read right now, Hot Rap Boday on ice Rights ice

1016
00:51:38,600 --> 00:51:45,439
Speaker 2: Cream say, now, I have a fun stat which I've

1017
00:51:45,480 --> 00:51:47,680
Speaker 2: used forever on this game, but I'm gonna let you

1018
00:51:47,800 --> 00:51:50,279
Speaker 2: first tell the crowd kind of what you're doing here,

1019
00:51:50,320 --> 00:51:51,760
Speaker 2: and I can kind of end it after.

1020
00:51:52,000 --> 00:51:55,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll go into Saturday. We're starting our Saturday Holiday games.

1021
00:51:55,400 --> 00:51:58,400
Speaker 3: One of those games is Patrick Mahomes maybe or Patrick

1022
00:51:58,400 --> 00:52:02,240
Speaker 3: Mahomes watching. I'm going to the Saturday game, Old faithful,

1023
00:52:02,239 --> 00:52:04,359
Speaker 3: if you've been listening or following me for a few years,

1024
00:52:04,400 --> 00:52:07,400
Speaker 3: you already know right where I'm going on Steelers Ravens.

1025
00:52:07,719 --> 00:52:09,920
Speaker 3: I want the underdog and I want the under So

1026
00:52:10,080 --> 00:52:13,320
Speaker 3: both hot Reeds are coming from this game. Steelers plus

1027
00:52:13,320 --> 00:52:15,680
Speaker 3: six and a half under forty six and a half

1028
00:52:15,719 --> 00:52:19,560
Speaker 3: on the game. So both of those numbers are touched

1029
00:52:19,560 --> 00:52:21,359
Speaker 3: below a key number. I don't mind. If you want

1030
00:52:21,360 --> 00:52:23,600
Speaker 3: to wait, you might get a plus seven, you might

1031
00:52:23,600 --> 00:52:26,680
Speaker 3: get the forty seven. TJ. A. Watt is a question mark,

1032
00:52:26,719 --> 00:52:28,680
Speaker 3: so that could certainly push things that way. Obviously I

1033
00:52:28,680 --> 00:52:31,680
Speaker 3: would like TJA Watt to play here, but I'm just

1034
00:52:31,680 --> 00:52:33,440
Speaker 3: gonna kind of make the case for both these together.

1035
00:52:33,560 --> 00:52:36,560
Speaker 3: So first with a matchup Mike Tomlins, defense just has

1036
00:52:36,600 --> 00:52:38,960
Speaker 3: answers for Baltimore. I don't know what it is. I

1037
00:52:38,960 --> 00:52:42,480
Speaker 3: can't tell you the football reason. But here's Baltimore's point total.

1038
00:52:42,520 --> 00:52:47,680
Speaker 3: The last eight games against the Steelers sixteen ten, ten, thirteen, sixteen, thirteen,

1039
00:52:47,760 --> 00:52:51,080
Speaker 3: nineteen fourteen. They have scored twenty points in any one

1040
00:52:51,120 --> 00:52:54,000
Speaker 3: of those games. This is a team that is putting

1041
00:52:54,080 --> 00:52:56,960
Speaker 3: up monster points. They're just going up and down the

1042
00:52:56,960 --> 00:53:00,200
Speaker 3: field on teams. Pittsburgh has figured out Lamar Jacks and

1043
00:53:00,280 --> 00:53:03,840
Speaker 3: somehow delite pass rush hasn't figured out. Their pass defense

1044
00:53:03,880 --> 00:53:07,640
Speaker 3: has been even better lately. Baltimore's defense, I think is

1045
00:53:07,640 --> 00:53:11,799
Speaker 3: a little bit gettable, but the pass defense is improving. Hopefully. Pittsburgh,

1046
00:53:11,800 --> 00:53:14,640
Speaker 3: if you're backing them, gets George Pickens back. I think

1047
00:53:14,680 --> 00:53:17,520
Speaker 3: that's a spot on the deep ball that the rusk

1048
00:53:17,520 --> 00:53:19,960
Speaker 3: can maybe hit a couple of the moon balls. Pittsburgh

1049
00:53:20,000 --> 00:53:23,080
Speaker 3: is a pretty big special teams advantage here. Sorry, Justin Tucker,

1050
00:53:23,080 --> 00:53:26,439
Speaker 3: I love you, but it's not happened lately. Pittsburgh those

1051
00:53:26,440 --> 00:53:29,520
Speaker 3: same eight games against Baltimore, they haven't scored twenty one

1052
00:53:29,560 --> 00:53:31,360
Speaker 3: either game either. I'm gonna save you're reading all the

1053
00:53:31,400 --> 00:53:33,759
Speaker 3: points off, but it's basically the same sort of thing.

1054
00:53:33,920 --> 00:53:38,200
Speaker 3: So that's the rivalry here. Throw everything else out. Play

1055
00:53:38,239 --> 00:53:42,440
Speaker 3: the rivalry. Last nine games. Pittsburgh's won eight of the nine,

1056
00:53:42,920 --> 00:53:45,239
Speaker 3: but all nine games are within the one score. So

1057
00:53:45,239 --> 00:53:48,200
Speaker 3: we're at six and a half here. That's probably gonna

1058
00:53:48,200 --> 00:53:50,840
Speaker 3: stay within one score. Please don't be a seven point game.

1059
00:53:51,520 --> 00:53:55,839
Speaker 3: Six straight meetings thirty four points combined or below. So

1060
00:53:55,920 --> 00:53:59,000
Speaker 3: that sets up for the under and the Steelers. Now

1061
00:53:59,040 --> 00:54:01,359
Speaker 3: here are my trends. I'm afraid I might can steal

1062
00:54:01,400 --> 00:54:02,719
Speaker 3: your trend along the way because this is one of

1063
00:54:02,760 --> 00:54:05,799
Speaker 3: my favorites. But under forty six and a half. Look,

1064
00:54:05,800 --> 00:54:07,360
Speaker 3: the Raids have been an over team. They're eleven to

1065
00:54:07,440 --> 00:54:10,400
Speaker 3: three to the over. Their games not playing Pittsburgh this

1066
00:54:10,520 --> 00:54:14,799
Speaker 3: year average fifty five points a game. They scored thirty four. No,

1067
00:54:14,800 --> 00:54:17,560
Speaker 3: they didn't score thirty four. They combined to score thirty

1068
00:54:17,560 --> 00:54:19,799
Speaker 3: four in the Pittsburgh game. That's just what happens in

1069
00:54:19,840 --> 00:54:22,840
Speaker 3: this game. I mentioned some of those late season division

1070
00:54:22,880 --> 00:54:26,880
Speaker 3: game trends. Home favorite under seven fifty eight percent total

1071
00:54:26,920 --> 00:54:29,040
Speaker 3: in the forty to forty seven range, fifty six percent

1072
00:54:29,080 --> 00:54:32,120
Speaker 3: of the under outdoor conditions, sixty two percent of the under.

1073
00:54:32,200 --> 00:54:35,120
Speaker 3: Looks like some win impossible rain a week away, So

1074
00:54:35,160 --> 00:54:39,240
Speaker 3: we'll see Mike Tomlin road unders fifty eight percent most

1075
00:54:39,280 --> 00:54:42,080
Speaker 3: profitable coach in bet Lab. So that's the case for

1076
00:54:42,120 --> 00:54:45,120
Speaker 3: the under and you already know the Steelers plus six

1077
00:54:45,160 --> 00:54:47,680
Speaker 3: and a half. This is your raw raw Mike Tomlin

1078
00:54:47,760 --> 00:54:51,840
Speaker 3: spot from week five forward as an underdog fifty twenty

1079
00:54:51,880 --> 00:54:55,200
Speaker 3: one and a one ats seventy percent. Today was not

1080
00:54:55,280 --> 00:54:57,279
Speaker 3: a raw raw spot. We talked about that on the

1081
00:54:57,320 --> 00:55:00,439
Speaker 3: Friday podcast. You don't want him coming off of will win.

1082
00:55:00,920 --> 00:55:03,360
Speaker 3: You don't want him on the road as much. You

1083
00:55:03,440 --> 00:55:06,680
Speaker 3: prefer at home. You prefer in the division. This game

1084
00:55:06,920 --> 00:55:09,600
Speaker 3: is a raw ras spot in the division as an

1085
00:55:09,640 --> 00:55:12,919
Speaker 3: underdog Week five forward twenty four five and one under

1086
00:55:12,920 --> 00:55:17,200
Speaker 3: Mike Tomlin eighty three percent. Also after a loss by

1087
00:55:17,239 --> 00:55:20,879
Speaker 3: seven or more doesn't happen often. Mike Tomlin underdog ten

1088
00:55:20,920 --> 00:55:24,560
Speaker 3: and one ats week five forward, covering by more than

1089
00:55:24,600 --> 00:55:27,439
Speaker 3: ten points a game, This is the spot you want

1090
00:55:27,480 --> 00:55:30,959
Speaker 3: them wounded coming back, not on the road. You prefer

1091
00:55:31,000 --> 00:55:34,279
Speaker 3: at home. But we can't get everything here. Underdogs in

1092
00:55:34,360 --> 00:55:38,480
Speaker 3: AFC North Division games laced in the season sixty two percent.

1093
00:55:39,000 --> 00:55:42,280
Speaker 3: And then here's the stat that you want. You always

1094
00:55:42,360 --> 00:55:46,640
Speaker 3: back the underdog Tomlin versus Harbaugh twenty four six and

1095
00:55:46,680 --> 00:55:51,239
Speaker 3: three ATS eighty percent, including when the underdog is more

1096
00:55:51,280 --> 00:55:54,880
Speaker 3: than a field goal thirteen and one ATS if you

1097
00:55:54,960 --> 00:55:57,600
Speaker 3: all the way back since two thousand and five, either

1098
00:55:57,760 --> 00:56:01,680
Speaker 3: team underdog and more than three point nineteen and two

1099
00:56:01,760 --> 00:56:05,200
Speaker 3: against the spread. You always take the underdog in this game,

1100
00:56:05,560 --> 00:56:08,279
Speaker 3: even better when you're getting more points. Look, I think

1101
00:56:08,280 --> 00:56:10,400
Speaker 3: the Ravens are better too. I think the Ravens should

1102
00:56:10,400 --> 00:56:13,120
Speaker 3: finally beat them. I got no matchup stuff for you

1103
00:56:13,480 --> 00:56:16,239
Speaker 3: in this rivalry. You bet the underdog, you bet the

1104
00:56:16,320 --> 00:56:18,719
Speaker 3: under if you want to put them together, y'all plus

1105
00:56:18,800 --> 00:56:21,279
Speaker 3: two thirty nine on the same game, parlay, I was

1106
00:56:21,320 --> 00:56:23,960
Speaker 3: gonna play in the ball separate Steelers plus six and

1107
00:56:24,000 --> 00:56:26,239
Speaker 3: a half under forty six and a half. You ain't

1108
00:56:26,239 --> 00:56:28,399
Speaker 3: new to us no more, now, you know what I mean.

1109
00:56:28,840 --> 00:56:30,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, I could see a lot of people looking at

1110
00:56:30,480 --> 00:56:32,399
Speaker 2: this as a teaser game. The other thing I'll tell

1111
00:56:32,400 --> 00:56:35,800
Speaker 2: you is the line's pretty big. Steelers haven't closed above

1112
00:56:35,920 --> 00:56:39,520
Speaker 2: plus five and a half against Baltimore since twenty twelve,

1113
00:56:39,960 --> 00:56:41,719
Speaker 2: and the line I was gonna give you was the

1114
00:56:41,760 --> 00:56:45,640
Speaker 2: final margin in the Steelers Ravens series since twenty twenty

1115
00:56:46,040 --> 00:56:50,560
Speaker 2: two seven seven three two three, one, five four. Since

1116
00:56:50,600 --> 00:56:54,200
Speaker 2: twenty fifteen, they've played nineteen games, sixteen of the nineteen

1117
00:56:54,680 --> 00:56:58,440
Speaker 2: final margin of seven points or less. So this has

1118
00:56:58,480 --> 00:57:00,719
Speaker 2: been a great series, and I think we're gonna get

1119
00:57:00,760 --> 00:57:04,359
Speaker 2: nothing different on Saturday night. All right, Before we wrap up,

1120
00:57:04,440 --> 00:57:07,160
Speaker 2: let's hear from Patrick Everson from Vegas Insiders and how

1121
00:57:07,239 --> 00:57:08,560
Speaker 2: things looked in Las Vegas.

1122
00:57:08,680 --> 00:57:10,439
Speaker 1: All right, Evan, thanks a lot for having me back

1123
00:57:10,520 --> 00:57:14,360
Speaker 1: on the Action Network podcast. Let's do a little recap

1124
00:57:14,520 --> 00:57:17,680
Speaker 1: of NFL odds for week fifteen. How things shook out

1125
00:57:17,680 --> 00:57:20,320
Speaker 1: for the betters, how things shook out for the sports books.

1126
00:57:21,160 --> 00:57:25,160
Speaker 1: Probably a win for the public betting masses all when

1127
00:57:25,200 --> 00:57:27,800
Speaker 1: you slice it and dice it all up, But not

1128
00:57:27,960 --> 00:57:30,920
Speaker 1: the win it certainly could have been, because there were

1129
00:57:30,920 --> 00:57:34,120
Speaker 1: a couple of key underdogs that came through for the

1130
00:57:34,200 --> 00:57:37,880
Speaker 1: sports books, and then you had a trendy underdog in

1131
00:57:37,920 --> 00:57:40,720
Speaker 1: the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Steelers did not cover his

1132
00:57:40,760 --> 00:57:43,760
Speaker 1: five and a half point road underdogs against the Eagles.

1133
00:57:43,760 --> 00:57:46,320
Speaker 1: But running through a couple of things at bettem Jam,

1134
00:57:46,360 --> 00:57:49,640
Speaker 1: for example, the most bet team on the point spread,

1135
00:57:49,720 --> 00:57:52,040
Speaker 1: the team that took the most straight bet tickets on

1136
00:57:52,080 --> 00:57:54,680
Speaker 1: the spread was the Chiefs. The Chiefs were also number

1137
00:57:54,680 --> 00:57:58,320
Speaker 1: one in point spread handle. The Lines were number two

1138
00:57:58,360 --> 00:58:01,640
Speaker 1: in tickets. The Bengals were number three tickets. The Bengals

1139
00:58:01,640 --> 00:58:03,960
Speaker 1: were number two in money. The Lions were number three

1140
00:58:03,960 --> 00:58:05,720
Speaker 1: in tickets. So the Bengals and the Lions just swap

1141
00:58:05,840 --> 00:58:08,680
Speaker 1: places between tickets and money. The Chiefs winn and cover,

1142
00:58:09,240 --> 00:58:13,280
Speaker 1: good for the public. The Lions lose, so obviously don't cover.

1143
00:58:13,440 --> 00:58:16,360
Speaker 1: In a track meet against the Bills, with the Bills

1144
00:58:16,400 --> 00:58:20,880
Speaker 1: winning forty eight to forty two, the Bengals win and cover,

1145
00:58:21,320 --> 00:58:23,919
Speaker 1: so again another good outcome for the public. So two

1146
00:58:23,920 --> 00:58:26,200
Speaker 1: of the top three in terms of tickets and money

1147
00:58:26,200 --> 00:58:29,760
Speaker 1: at BETAMGM come through for the public. John Murray at

1148
00:58:29,760 --> 00:58:33,160
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl here in Las Vegas said the Bills

1149
00:58:33,280 --> 00:58:35,880
Speaker 1: were a big, big need, So the Bills and the

1150
00:58:35,920 --> 00:58:39,560
Speaker 1: Buccaneers were big needs in those late games, the late

1151
00:58:39,600 --> 00:58:42,320
Speaker 1: window of games on Sunday, and as it turned out,

1152
00:58:42,360 --> 00:58:44,760
Speaker 1: not only did the Bills come through with the modest

1153
00:58:44,840 --> 00:58:48,280
Speaker 1: upset on the road against the Lions, but the Buccaneers

1154
00:58:49,000 --> 00:58:52,760
Speaker 1: paying twenty seven points on the La Chargers in the

1155
00:58:52,760 --> 00:58:55,400
Speaker 1: second half and hold the Chargers scoreless to win forty

1156
00:58:55,400 --> 00:58:58,400
Speaker 1: to seventeen in that game. So those were two real

1157
00:58:58,480 --> 00:59:01,240
Speaker 1: key ones that kind of turned the tide on a

1158
00:59:01,320 --> 00:59:03,240
Speaker 1: day where you look at the records and you see

1159
00:59:03,280 --> 00:59:06,800
Speaker 1: that the favorites went ten to three straight up nine

1160
00:59:06,880 --> 00:59:09,080
Speaker 1: to four against the spread. Generally, that's a sign that

1161
00:59:09,120 --> 00:59:11,400
Speaker 1: the public's had a really good day. Public had a

1162
00:59:11,400 --> 00:59:13,520
Speaker 1: decent day, but they certainly didn't run away with it,

1163
00:59:13,720 --> 00:59:17,480
Speaker 1: and at some books, probably the books ended up winning.

1164
00:59:18,080 --> 00:59:20,600
Speaker 1: Running through a few things at Draft Kings. In terms

1165
00:59:20,640 --> 00:59:25,880
Speaker 1: of teams that took the most spread bets for Sunday, Bengals, Steelers, Commanders,

1166
00:59:25,960 --> 00:59:31,360
Speaker 1: Chiefs Broncos Bengals cover, Steelers don't. Commanders don't by giving

1167
00:59:31,440 --> 00:59:33,760
Speaker 1: up that late touchdown. Actually they weren't covering anyway at

1168
00:59:33,760 --> 00:59:38,240
Speaker 1: that point, but almost lost outright. Certainly didn't cover. Chiefs cover,

1169
00:59:38,840 --> 00:59:41,440
Speaker 1: Broncos cover. Broncos had a couple of four tuitous plays

1170
00:59:41,440 --> 00:59:44,400
Speaker 1: in that game as well, but Broncos cover, so three

1171
00:59:44,480 --> 00:59:47,439
Speaker 1: out of those five cover. Among the teams that took

1172
00:59:47,440 --> 00:59:51,800
Speaker 1: the most straight spread bets at Draft Kings by money

1173
00:59:51,840 --> 00:59:54,960
Speaker 1: on the spread at DraftKings, Commander's number one, followed by

1174
00:59:54,960 --> 00:59:59,280
Speaker 1: the Bengals, Dolphins, Chiefs and Bills. Commanders don't cover. Bengals

1175
00:59:59,360 --> 01:00:04,960
Speaker 1: cover Dolphins trendy ish underdog don't cover. Chiefs cover, Bills

1176
01:00:05,200 --> 01:00:07,760
Speaker 1: cover obviously by winning outright, so again three and two.

1177
01:00:08,120 --> 01:00:09,880
Speaker 1: So it wasn't like the public ran away with it,

1178
01:00:09,920 --> 01:00:12,360
Speaker 1: but the public certainly had its spots. A couple of

1179
01:00:12,400 --> 01:00:15,240
Speaker 1: big wagers too. There was a one hundred and eighty

1180
01:00:15,320 --> 01:00:18,040
Speaker 1: thousand dollars money line bet on the Chiefs at bet

1181
01:00:18,200 --> 01:00:21,800
Speaker 1: MGM at minus two and a quarter. Obviously that bet cashed.

1182
01:00:22,360 --> 01:00:26,080
Speaker 1: There was a two hundred and twenty thousand dollars play

1183
01:00:26,160 --> 01:00:29,120
Speaker 1: from the Lions at minus two against the Bills, and

1184
01:00:29,200 --> 01:00:33,040
Speaker 1: obviously that bet goes begging and it's a nice donation

1185
01:00:33,120 --> 01:00:35,440
Speaker 1: to the house. And that bet was made at Caesar Sports,

1186
01:00:35,480 --> 01:00:39,080
Speaker 1: so Caesars was certainly happy to see the Lions not

1187
01:00:39,320 --> 01:00:43,120
Speaker 1: win that game, let alone cover the spread. So looking

1188
01:00:43,160 --> 01:00:46,720
Speaker 1: ahead to the Monday night game, Monday night games, I

1189
01:00:46,760 --> 01:00:49,760
Speaker 1: should say we've got two of them. The vikings are

1190
01:00:49,800 --> 01:00:52,600
Speaker 1: really popular. Chris Andrews at the South Point here in

1191
01:00:52,640 --> 01:00:55,480
Speaker 1: Las Vegas said, all of the parlays are running to

1192
01:00:55,520 --> 01:00:57,400
Speaker 1: the Vikings tomorrow, whether it's on the spread or on

1193
01:00:57,440 --> 01:00:59,919
Speaker 1: the money line. So that is going to be a key.

1194
01:01:00,000 --> 01:01:01,640
Speaker 1: They're really going to want the Bears to win that

1195
01:01:01,680 --> 01:01:04,720
Speaker 1: game out right, and others books, both locally here in

1196
01:01:04,760 --> 01:01:06,920
Speaker 1: Las Vegas and across the nation, they're probably gonna want

1197
01:01:06,960 --> 01:01:09,840
Speaker 1: that as well. I can tell you that BETMGM nationally

1198
01:01:09,920 --> 01:01:11,720
Speaker 1: is seeing in the range of three to one tickets

1199
01:01:11,720 --> 01:01:13,680
Speaker 1: and four to one money on the Vikings on the spread,

1200
01:01:13,680 --> 01:01:16,040
Speaker 1: and they're even laying the minus three p fifty on

1201
01:01:16,080 --> 01:01:19,000
Speaker 1: the money line on Minnesota and then the Falcons Raiders.

1202
01:01:19,280 --> 01:01:21,400
Speaker 1: Here in Las Vegas, nobody's got to believe in the Raiders,

1203
01:01:21,400 --> 01:01:24,439
Speaker 1: and nationally that don't either. Heading into Monday. Now, look,

1204
01:01:24,480 --> 01:01:26,160
Speaker 1: this could change a lot of the money that comes

1205
01:01:26,160 --> 01:01:29,360
Speaker 1: in on these Monday games comes into a day of

1206
01:01:29,440 --> 01:01:32,960
Speaker 1: game and be closer to kickoff. But at BETMGM as

1207
01:01:32,960 --> 01:01:38,600
Speaker 1: we head into Monday, seventy nine percent of spread tickets

1208
01:01:38,720 --> 01:01:41,960
Speaker 1: and ninety five percent of spread money on Atlanta on

1209
01:01:42,040 --> 01:01:45,800
Speaker 1: the road against the Raiders in that second Monday night game.

1210
01:01:46,080 --> 01:01:49,040
Speaker 1: So they're having a little look at NFL Week fifteen.

1211
01:01:49,080 --> 01:01:51,360
Speaker 1: How it shook out, Probably a win for the public

1212
01:01:51,360 --> 01:01:54,560
Speaker 1: betting masses overall, but could have been better, certainly could

1213
01:01:54,560 --> 01:01:56,600
Speaker 1: have been worse. We'll talk to you more next week.

1214
01:01:56,680 --> 01:01:57,200
Speaker 1: Thanks a lot.

1215
01:01:57,600 --> 01:02:01,600
Speaker 2: This has been the Action Network podcast. We recapped every

1216
01:02:01,720 --> 01:02:05,640
Speaker 2: game from Week fifteen on this beautiful Sunday, and we

1217
01:02:05,680 --> 01:02:08,080
Speaker 2: gave you a little bit of a Monday night football preview,

1218
01:02:08,080 --> 01:02:11,080
Speaker 2: and we will see you again here next week recapping

1219
01:02:11,240 --> 01:02:14,800
Speaker 2: all the non bye week amazing action in Week sixteen

1220
01:02:15,160 --> 01:02:17,480
Speaker 2: with all the games, and we will see you then

1221
01:02:17,680 --> 01:02:18,200
Speaker 2: enjoy the week.

1222
01:02:18,240 --> 01:02:38,200
Speaker 1: Everybody Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you

1223
01:02:38,480 --> 01:02:41,200
Speaker 1: or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help

1224
01:02:41,320 --> 01:02:44,000
Speaker 1: is available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred

1225
01:02:44,040 --> 01:02:44,520
Speaker 1: Gambler