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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second.

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Speaker 1: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast presented by bet MGM.

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Speaker 1: We're back for another UFC betting preview. We're heading to

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Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia for UFC Fight Night this week. Billy Ward

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Speaker 1: and Sean Zerrillo alongside watching on YouTube, which please subscribe

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Speaker 1: to our YouTube channel if you have not done so. Also,

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Speaker 1: how wherever you listen to your podcasts, you can find

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Speaker 1: the Action Network Podcast with our UFC betting previews. Zarrillo

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Speaker 1: on YouTube has a Fords hat today because Billy and

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Speaker 1: Seawan went head to head in their best bet last week,

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Speaker 1: and well, you know, sometimes we were hats early in

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Speaker 1: the morning. We're doing some work night before BedHead whatever

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Speaker 1: it may be. Haven't got a haircut in a while.

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Speaker 1: We agreed that whoever lost the head to head best

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Speaker 1: bet would have to then wear their hat four so

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Speaker 1: Sean's doing that this week. So job Sean.

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Speaker 3: We're crazy. Wow, all that needed.

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Speaker 1: To be said, fantastic. Let's dive into the Saudi Arabia

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Speaker 1: card for this week. Robert Whitaker the Favorite and ikram

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Speaker 1: Alice Kroff at plus one point thirty Seanzrilla. What do

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Speaker 1: you make of this head to head as far as

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Speaker 1: how the fight could play out. It's a shorter money

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Speaker 1: line price than we were working with last week and

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Speaker 1: how would you like to bet it?

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Speaker 4: So Kara was supposed to fight on the comin event

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Speaker 4: last week. He's now taking a short notice, five round

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Speaker 4: fight in Saudi Arabia against Robert Whitaker, a former champion

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Speaker 4: who has faced a much better strength of schedule, has

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Speaker 4: been five rounds in the past this five round experience,

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Speaker 4: and is the better technical fighter and has been better

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Speaker 4: technique across twenty five minutes. I expect him to be

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Speaker 4: the better midter winner down the stretch of this fight

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Speaker 4: if this one extends. But Ikram is big, not bigger

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Speaker 4: in terms of like height, but he has longer reach.

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Speaker 4: He's the bigger athlete. He's missed weight a few times

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Speaker 4: trying to make one eighty five of the pass where

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Speaker 4: Whittaker is a former walter wait one hundred and seventy pounders.

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Speaker 4: So Ikram is going to be the bigger athlete, going

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Speaker 4: to be the more powerful athlete, has the reach advantage,

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Speaker 4: and I think his forward pressure is going to prove

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Speaker 4: problematic early for Whiner, who his chin has been declining

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Speaker 4: and he gets wabbled seemingly in every fight now. Wabbled

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Speaker 4: at the end of round one against Pelocasta, recovered, ended

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Speaker 4: up winning the fight, but a scary moment, and I

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Speaker 4: think it ended up costing him round one of the cards.

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Speaker 4: And given the power discrepancy in this fight, I would

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Speaker 4: expect alis Garev to hurt him at some point, especially

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Speaker 4: early on. So the fact that Ikram is taking this

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Speaker 4: fight on short notice, as I said, extending out the

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Speaker 4: five rounds, Whittaker should have the better cardio be a

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Speaker 4: better winner down the stretch. If you're betting Ickram, I

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Speaker 4: think you bet him early. If you're betting Whittaker, I

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Speaker 4: think he want him live for late. So Billy and

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Speaker 4: I think have a pretty similar read on this fight.

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Speaker 4: We're just going about betting it in slightly different ways.

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Speaker 4: I like aliscare by knockout at plus two seventy. I

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Speaker 4: also like his round one odds at plus six fifty,

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Speaker 4: and then I'm gonna look the live bet waitacer live

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Speaker 4: after round one. I think an alternative approach equally viable.

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Speaker 4: Just wait for that Whittaker live bet and then also

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Speaker 4: potentially have some Whittaker late round props around four to

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Speaker 4: five round four to five decision. I think any late

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Speaker 4: iterations for Whitaker early iterations for Ikram are more correlated

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Speaker 4: to their respective win conditions than either of their money lines.

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Speaker 4: So I think a good fight for prop betting targeting

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Speaker 4: the early and late props respectively, and then also Whittaker

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Speaker 4: as the live angle. I think live after round one

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Speaker 4: and particularly live after round two would be the best

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Speaker 4: way to attack that.

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Speaker 1: Okay, very good, And also folks note the with the

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Speaker 1: time difference at three o'clock three Eastern start in the

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Speaker 1: afternoon for the card Billy. As you noted in your

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Speaker 1: Action Network luck ratings, love Whathaker's nickname Bobby Knuckles. That

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Speaker 1: and of itself might just generate some public attention. But

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Speaker 1: as you noted here that the line has moved away

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Speaker 1: from Whitakers, so you mentioned he was undervalued. Do you

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Speaker 1: echo Shawn's sentiments or is now is the price point

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Speaker 1: at a stage now where you'd rather wait and potentially

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Speaker 1: wait live, or is the pre fight line good enough

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Speaker 1: for you?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, even as late as last night when I put

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Speaker 5: in Whittaker at minus one eight as a money line

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Speaker 5: bat I thought I would still take it, and eight

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Speaker 5: hours later those are gone too, So at this point

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Speaker 5: I don't think you can take his money lines. Really,

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Speaker 5: for all the reasons Sean pointed out, it's a pretty

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Speaker 5: clear distinction how this one's going to go. I took

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Speaker 5: it at minus one five when this fight was first book.

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Speaker 5: Loved it there Althowise we talked about last week. Sometimes

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Speaker 5: I get CLV, sometimes I don't. The two that we

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Speaker 5: talked about last week, the one where I didn't get CLV,

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Speaker 5: I won, and the one where I did I lost.

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Speaker 5: So not a lot of faith in CLV in terms

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Speaker 5: of UFC betting just in general. But other than that,

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Speaker 5: it's pretty clear. The one thing that Sean didn't touch on,

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Speaker 5: you know, I mentioned the five round fight. Based on

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Speaker 5: when they announced this one, I would imagine that alis

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Speaker 5: Kirov was part way through a cut to make weight

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Speaker 5: last time. You know, it probably hadn't eaten much in

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Speaker 5: the last day or two, starting to shed some water weight,

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Speaker 5: no carbs for a while, getting rid of the sodium,

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Speaker 5: all that stuff we do, and then maybe he had

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Speaker 5: to put some back on and then cut it again,

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Speaker 5: or try to extend that cut where he's not really

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Speaker 5: eating or fueling himself for a week and a half.

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Speaker 6: I don't know how they handled that. That would be

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Speaker 6: a really tough spot.

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Speaker 5: It's almost worse than just having the late notice where

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Speaker 5: you're still just doing it once, like it's going to

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Speaker 5: be miserable, but you're only depleted for three four days,

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Speaker 5: where he kind of is going to spend the better

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Speaker 5: part of two weeks underfed and a little bit dehydrated

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Speaker 5: and all those things. So that's a big factor for

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Speaker 5: me on the Whitaker side why I think his money

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Speaker 5: line was probably okay again, wouldn't play it now, can

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Speaker 5: go live, can go late? The one fun one if

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Speaker 5: you have a book where they're offering, you know, player

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Speaker 5: prop style UFC stuff. Whittaker to land a single takedown

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Speaker 5: was plus one seventy plus one seventy five. Last night

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Speaker 5: he was preparing for Hamzad, so he was probably wrestling

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Speaker 5: a lot more than he did before. Whittaker has been

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Speaker 5: mixing more takedowns, and with how aggressive alis Kaov comes forward,

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Speaker 5: ALISCAREFV knows he probably needs a quick knockout. I think

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Speaker 5: if you're Whittaker. You might try to get a takedown

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Speaker 5: in the first round or two just to slow things

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Speaker 5: down sap some energy.

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Speaker 6: So that's a fun one.

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Speaker 5: Obviously, I'm not making a big bet on UFC player

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Speaker 5: props at this point because it's very hard to project.

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Speaker 5: But and that plus money I like that too, So

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Speaker 5: if you want something extra pre fight, I'd do that. Otherwise,

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Speaker 5: Sean's one hundred percent right. We're looking at Whittaker live.

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Speaker 5: If you don't think you're gonna bet it live, you

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Speaker 5: know Whittaker and over sgps, Whittaker decision, Whittaker late rounds.

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Speaker 6: Anything to that extent is the way to play it.

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Speaker 1: Okay, very good. Have you wap out fight of the

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Speaker 1: night for Shawn and Billy? Sergei Pavlovich the significant favorite

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Speaker 1: against Alexander volkov is price on the money line plus

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Speaker 1: one ninety five. Sean, how do you evaluate these two

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Speaker 1: fires head to head? And how would you like to

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Speaker 1: bet fights?

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Speaker 4: Minus four hundred and ten inside the distance heavyweight? About

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Speaker 4: the under one and a half two stuff pretty heavily too,

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Speaker 4: And Pavlovich's UFC fights have tended to end very quickly.

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Speaker 4: He's a gigantic man. With a really long reach, and

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Speaker 4: I'm curious to see how Volkov navigates having a reach discrepancy. Normally,

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Speaker 4: Alexander Volkov is the fighter with the reach advantage eighty

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Speaker 4: one inch reach. Pavovich is an eighty four inch reach,

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Speaker 4: so rarely do you see Volkov dwarved in terms of reach.

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Speaker 4: But he doesn't just need the reach in terms of

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Speaker 4: his arms. He relies on his teep kicks to keep range.

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Speaker 4: It's really good at using his whole frame, you know,

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Speaker 4: to shrig opponents and keep range, whereas Pavolich is looking

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Speaker 4: to get in the pocket and box. So the fact

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Speaker 4: that Pavovich has the reach advantage doesn't even necessarily matter

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Speaker 4: here because he doesn't want to be closer and tight

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Speaker 4: to his opponents and landing boxing range as opposed to

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Speaker 4: fighting at the end of long strem punches. So I

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Speaker 4: think it's more problematic for Volkov the reach than it

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Speaker 4: is for Pavolch. I'm curious to see how Volkov approaches it,

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Speaker 4: but I think Volkov is absolutely the side at the price.

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Speaker 4: He just has more ways to win. Pavlovich can fight

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Speaker 4: longer he has in the past on his regional career.

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Speaker 4: I don't want to discount his chances of winning a decision,

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Speaker 4: but if this fight goes over five minutes, this fight

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Speaker 4: goes the second round, I think it certainly favors Volkov,

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Speaker 4: who not only has better cardio and better output across

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Speaker 4: fifteen minutes, but probably has the grappling upside too. And

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Speaker 4: I'm be interested to see what happens if he's able

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Speaker 4: to take pavolch down because that could be part of

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Speaker 4: his game plan. But the early minutes are going to

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Speaker 4: be very scary for him because there's just such a

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Speaker 4: speed advantage for Paovich.

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Speaker 3: He's so much more explosive.

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Speaker 4: He's the much better athlete, and I think Volkov is

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Speaker 4: going to be there to be hit for him in

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Speaker 4: the first round, So.

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Speaker 3: I don't want a big bet on Volkov pre fight.

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Speaker 4: I would expect him to get clipped and get clipped

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Speaker 4: hard in round one, and we'll see if he survives

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Speaker 4: that early damage, and you likely get a better live

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Speaker 4: price after round one. So definitely going to be targeting

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Speaker 4: Volkov live. I'll take some plus two hundred pre fights small,

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Speaker 4: and then I also am interested in his knockout prop

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Speaker 4: at plus four to thirty. Pavovitch is the one coming

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Speaker 4: off the knockout, and Volkov's power is a little bit underrated.

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Speaker 4: He's more of an aratraitional finisher. I'd consider his round

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Speaker 4: two and round three props for a look as well.

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Speaker 4: But volkov Ko at plus four to thirty I think

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Speaker 4: is wide compared to his money line. Maybe submission, you know,

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Speaker 4: is a decent part of his win condition here. But

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Speaker 4: I projected that Ko line closer to plus three fifty,

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Speaker 4: and I made his money line closer to plus one sixty.

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Speaker 4: So we're gonna find ways to bet Volkov. But I

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Speaker 4: do think the best angle is probably gonna come live

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Speaker 4: after round one.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Billy, speaking of round one, you actually don't mind

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Speaker 1: turning to Pavlovitch for a round one play and then

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Speaker 1: maybe getting in on Volkov.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I think this one's pretty straightforward. If Pavlovich is

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Speaker 5: gonna win, it's probably round one. It's not even that

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Speaker 5: I think he has bad cardio. Is that I think

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Speaker 5: he's a huge jack dude who takes so much energy

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Speaker 5: for him to throw a punch, especially as.

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Speaker 6: Explosive as he is.

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Speaker 5: Pavlovich is what we thought Alexander Volkov was going to be,

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Speaker 5: like ten years ago, like Pavlovich is just Volkov two

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Speaker 5: point oh, the big scary Russian dude looks like Ivan Drago.

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Speaker 6: Volkov's nickname is Drago.

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Speaker 5: Pavlovich is the bigger, more Drago esque fighter, for lack

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Speaker 5: of a better term. So I think you take Pavlovitch

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Speaker 5: round one because if he's gonna win, probably how it happens,

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Speaker 5: and then Volkov live. I also don't hate though, and

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Speaker 5: I might go this way is you can take Pavlovich

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Speaker 5: round one and Volkov's money line, especially if it gets

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Speaker 5: any further, because if Volkov gets that takedown in round

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Speaker 5: one that Sean was alluding to, You're not going to

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Speaker 5: get a better price on him. I also just don't

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Speaker 5: see the chances of him surviving getting hit once or

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Speaker 5: twice by.

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Speaker 6: Pavlovich as being very high.

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Speaker 5: So by the end of round one, either Volkov is

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Speaker 5: going to be unconscious or probably getting a worse line

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Speaker 5: would be my reado. I just don't see how he

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Speaker 5: gets hit, is losing the round but then comes back

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Speaker 5: and wins.

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Speaker 6: That seems fairly unlikely to me.

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Speaker 5: Obviously, I don't like playing both sides of a fight

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Speaker 5: pre fight, so I'm torn on that one. I'm not

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Speaker 5: necessarily saying I'm going to do either, but it feels

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Speaker 5: pretty straightforward. We've got big, scary power puncher. The only

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Speaker 5: fight he had in the UFC that went to like

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Speaker 5: the back end of round one, he got finished and

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Speaker 5: seemed to pretty much run out of gas. It was

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Speaker 5: his debut against an extremely long running better in an

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Speaker 5: alistair over him, So a little bit of a pass there.

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Speaker 6: Maybe he's gotten better.

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Speaker 5: I just don't see the body type or the fighting

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Speaker 5: style as something you can really work around, no matter

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Speaker 5: how hard you train your cardio. So that's how I'm

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Speaker 5: playing it. Glad Sean mentioned the grappling edge. If Volkov

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Speaker 5: gets a takedown and round one that might be it,

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Speaker 5: not because he submits him, but just because that SAPs

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Speaker 5: so much of his power.

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Speaker 6: That's kind of where we're at.

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Speaker 1: These guys are a couple of mooses. Pavoloch at six

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Speaker 1: three two fifty nine Volkov six seven sixty three. And

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Speaker 1: we haven't talked about a key ingredient you both bring

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Speaker 1: up often aged. They're both around the same age Volkov's

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Speaker 1: thirty five, but.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, a lot more fight damage on him though, is

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Speaker 4: he's a lot older in fight years, this is this

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Speaker 4: is a Russian street beafs fight though looking forward at

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Speaker 4: this one.

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Speaker 5: But thirty five in heavyweight years is like a twenty

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Speaker 5: four year old flyweight too, So we're not really worried

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Speaker 5: about that.

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Speaker 4: Okay, I think Path has gotten better too. I think

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Speaker 4: he's been training with wrestlers. I think I think he's

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Speaker 4: probably like got it in his defensive wrestling to a

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Speaker 4: point where he can at least like sprawl and brawl

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Speaker 4: against these other heavyweights and can fight at the top

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Speaker 4: of the division. But yeah, I don't I don't know

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Speaker 4: what his defensive grappling looks like once he gets put

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Speaker 4: on his back, And as you said, belly one takedown

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Speaker 4: could be the end of the fight in terms of

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Speaker 4: his cardio being sapped, but it could also just be

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Speaker 4: the end of the fight in terms of getting submitted.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, I'm curious of voc on grapples, and I'm

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Speaker 4: curious how he navigates that reached discrepancy because I think

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Speaker 4: being at size parody. The only time we've really seen

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Speaker 4: it was against your Rogan, who is also a faster

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Speaker 4: and more technical guy than Volks, So you can't take

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Speaker 4: too much away from that. But it did seem like

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Speaker 4: he was struggling with Gon's reach true degree and didn't

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Speaker 4: really want to close the distance as much. So, but

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Speaker 4: that's that's the game plan for him here, keep distance

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Speaker 4: and you know, stay safe until have a witch tires out.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, this is one we're going to talk about next

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Speaker 5: week with MVP and Ian Gary. But when there's a

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Speaker 5: fighter who is almost always the taller, longer guy and

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Speaker 5: then all of a sudden, isn't I worry a lot

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Speaker 5: more about that than like one of these short Like

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Speaker 5: like I don't care when Alexander Volkanowski was the shorter

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Speaker 5: guy because he always was and that's his fight style.

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Speaker 5: But when your volcalf and your whole game is keeping range,

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Speaker 5: that's a tougher adjustment to make.

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Speaker 6: So that's an interesting one to break down.

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Speaker 5: Like I said, I'm very excited to talk about that

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Speaker 5: one next week when we get to three oh three.

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Speaker 3: But save that FPPKOVPKO.

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Speaker 6: Gotta watch them tape. I'm making no declaration yet.

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Speaker 4: I just like, I like how Hardy swings and that

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Speaker 4: Gary Chin is going to get cracked at some point.

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Speaker 1: So the Action Network podcast Everybody is brought to you

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Speaker 1: by bet MGM used the bonus code action when signing

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Speaker 1: up to get up to fifteen hundred dollars back and

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Speaker 1: bonus bets if your first bet does not win. For

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Speaker 1: new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Luisia, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

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Speaker 1: New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia,

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Speaker 1: and Wyoming, terms and conditions apply. It must be twenty

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Speaker 1: one plus gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler underdogs.

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Speaker 1: There is one fight in particular on the main car

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Speaker 1: that has jumped out to both of these guys. The

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Speaker 1: middleweight about Daniel Rodriguez is the plus one ninety billy.

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Speaker 1: I'll turn to you first here because you pinpointed this first,

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Speaker 1: and Zilla's got some thoughts you both. Basically, it's a

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Speaker 1: consensus underdog segment. Why does Rodriguez emerge to you on

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Speaker 1: this card?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean first. Is the structural thing that we

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Speaker 5: always talk about. This is one of the likeliest fights

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Speaker 5: on the card to go to a decision, which almost

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Speaker 5: by definition means it should be fairly close, which means

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Speaker 5: we want the underdog.

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Speaker 6: It's a good week to use that logic.

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Speaker 5: By the way, when we're in Saudi Arabia, there is

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Speaker 5: no real athletic commission. We have no idea who the

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Speaker 5: judges are going to be. And this is one of

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Speaker 5: the rare fights where there's not clearly an a side

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Speaker 5: in terms of like who the fan and promotion wants

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Speaker 5: to win. You know, they get a lot of Russian

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Speaker 5: fans here in this So some of these Russian fights

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Speaker 5: against a non Russian, you think there might be some bias.

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Speaker 6: This one, there will not be.

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Speaker 5: No one in Saudi Arabia has strong feelings about Daniel

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Speaker 5: Rodriguez or Calvin Gastallon. So that's reason number one. Reason

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Speaker 5: number two is this was supposed to be at one seventy.

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Speaker 5: Gastelum said he couldn't even make one eighty needed it

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Speaker 5: moved all the way up to one eighty five.

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Speaker 6: I have two minds on that.

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Speaker 5: There's a chance he's just a bigger, stronger dude and

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Speaker 5: it's basically just cheating to get to be a weight

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Speaker 5: class bigger than his opponent. That's certainly a possibility. The

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Speaker 5: other possibility is something went horribly wrong. He wasn't able

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Speaker 5: to run. He's got a knee injury, his dog got sick,

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Speaker 5: you know, like any number of things that threw off

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Speaker 5: his training in preparation. A little suspicious at that, because, okay,

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Speaker 5: if you moved it up five pounds, maybe even ten,

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Speaker 5: saying you can't even get within fifteen pounds of what

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Speaker 5: you originally said is interesting to say the least. But

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Speaker 5: Gastolm not known for his discipline. Sean sent this to

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Speaker 5: me a couple of days ago. Was posting videos about

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Speaker 5: like reviewing all the tacos in town and then can't

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Speaker 5: make waight three weeks later. Is not a great sign.

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Speaker 5: So d rod around plus two hundred. That line's falling,

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Speaker 5: so you probably want to get on there fast. The

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Speaker 5: other one I like Nicholas Dalby plus two ninety five.

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Speaker 5: Similar deal where we expect this to most likely go

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Speaker 5: to a decision. He's fighting Renatt Fackward Denof, who has

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Speaker 5: looked really good early in fights, but one of those

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Speaker 5: all action grappler types who gets a million takedowns but

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Speaker 5: then really hits the wall. And he went to a

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Speaker 5: majority draw against Eazy Doo Santos in his last fight

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Speaker 5: where he got ten eighted in the third round, and

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Speaker 5: then one of the judges actually gave Backer d enof

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Speaker 5: the loss, so he's kind of lucky to escape with

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Speaker 5: the draw there rather than a loss. Dlby is known

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Speaker 5: for his incredible cardio. You're gonna hear him from like

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Speaker 5: thirty seconds in doing his weird breathing technique and think

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Speaker 5: that he's out of gas. That's just what he does.

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Speaker 5: The commentators are going to point that out too, so

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Speaker 5: sorry for being redundant. And Dalby's a really underrated grappler,

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Speaker 5: like he's competed in some high level grappling stuff, had

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Speaker 5: a striking background, but I'm I'm always consistently impressed with

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Speaker 5: his grappling. So to get him at plus two ninety

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Speaker 5: five against the guy who's probably just going to try

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Speaker 5: to wrestle him and then run out of steam when

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Speaker 5: he doesn't, I like. Also, if you can get the

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Speaker 5: points spread on certain books plus three and a half

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Speaker 5: for Nicholas Delby, that's still plus money. He basically just

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Speaker 5: needs to win run round. So if you think he

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Speaker 5: wins the third round more often than not, and you're

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Speaker 5: getting that at plus money, that's probably my favorite way

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Speaker 5: to play it. I think I'm gonna split my exposure

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Speaker 5: between those two, just because I want a little upside

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Speaker 5: to and right win. I took doll beyond the point

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Speaker 5: spread in his last fight when he was a plus

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Speaker 5: four hundred or so underdog debond Feme, and he won

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Speaker 5: that one out right, so I was regretting not getting

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Speaker 5: the more.

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Speaker 6: Exposure this time. I'll have a little bit on both.

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Speaker 1: Are are those breathing exercises you think for Dolby? Is

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Speaker 1: that what that is?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, He's talked about it in the past.

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Speaker 5: It's just a way he's found to keep his cardio

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Speaker 5: up and control his breathing.

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Speaker 6: And anyone who.

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Speaker 5: Trains jiu jitsu, there's at least one or two guys

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Speaker 5: at your gym who does some kind of weird breathing

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Speaker 5: thing in your ear when you're wrestling with him, and

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Speaker 5: it's weird and awkward. But those guys always have good cardio,

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Speaker 5: so there's something to it. I don't know what it is.

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Speaker 5: I feel like an idiot every time I try to

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Speaker 5: do it, but shout out to Nicholas Delby.

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Speaker 4: It's a good distraction technique too. They get you not

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Speaker 4: thinking about the techniques and wondering what the hell they're

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Speaker 4: doing with their breathing and then all of a sudden

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Speaker 4: they catch in something.

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Speaker 5: So especially when it's right in your ear, you know,

402
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Speaker 5: like they get a take down there in your garden.

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Speaker 6: It's just hate it.

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Speaker 1: But misdirection it works though it's getting it's getting your

405
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Speaker 1: in your.

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Speaker 3: Head, got your head literally.

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Speaker 1: Yep, all right, zerrilla you echo these sentiments by Billy.

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Speaker 4: Anything to add, Yeah, both of these fights lined to

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Speaker 4: go to a decision. The Dolpy fight about minus one

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00:18:35,920 --> 00:18:37,879
Speaker 4: sixty tod you were out fight about minus t twenty. So,

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Speaker 4: as Billy said, philosophically close closer fights and theory going

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Speaker 4: to a decision. Dolby's won his last four fights, three

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Speaker 4: as an underdog plus four sixty plus one fifty five

414
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Speaker 4: plus one twenty. The sky keeps overachieving. He's thirty nine

415
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Speaker 4: years old, so you wouldn't think you would have such

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Speaker 4: amazing cardio. But it's probably his best aspect as a fighter,

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Speaker 4: cardio and durability.

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Speaker 3: He's never been finished.

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Speaker 4: He's really good mission defense, and he's always worth a

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Speaker 4: live bet after round one. So Dolby live after round one,

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Speaker 4: I think is going to be a great play. You'll

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Speaker 4: probably get a better price. His pre fight money line

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Speaker 4: continues to move up, so I'd be patient if you're

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Speaker 4: betting Dolby. He opened at plus two hundred, it's all

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Speaker 4: the way up at plus three hundred, and if you

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Speaker 4: look at the line graft in terms of the movement,

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Speaker 4: it just keeps ticking upwards. So I'd imagine this crosses

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Speaker 4: plus three hundred at some point. I think we're not

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Speaker 4: probably Rint wins round one. He's a very powerful wrestler.

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Speaker 4: I don't love Dalby's takedown defense, but I do love

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Speaker 4: Dolbise survivabilities, So I think Dalby just needs to like

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Speaker 4: keep fighting, keep scrambling, and keep We're not working, and

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Speaker 4: he'll work his way back into this fight eventually. But

434
00:19:37,920 --> 00:19:39,920
Speaker 4: I do think round one is going to be a

435
00:19:39,920 --> 00:19:42,240
Speaker 4: little problematic, and I would imagine you get a better

436
00:19:42,280 --> 00:19:46,040
Speaker 4: live price after round one on Delby, So definitely looking

437
00:19:46,080 --> 00:19:49,080
Speaker 4: at Delby, but live maybe the better angle. And then

438
00:19:49,119 --> 00:19:51,679
Speaker 4: the d rot of Gasolin fight. I'm not sure if

439
00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:53,600
Speaker 4: Billy mentioned it, but d rod Forge is taller three

440
00:19:53,600 --> 00:19:56,000
Speaker 4: in treach advantage, so even though Gaslin could in theory

441
00:19:56,520 --> 00:19:59,239
Speaker 4: be the bigger, stronger man, he's a former wealtherweight, you know,

442
00:19:59,440 --> 00:20:03,639
Speaker 4: fighting at one eighty five and went back down to

443
00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:06,720
Speaker 4: walterweight for his last fight. Clearly couldn't keep making the

444
00:20:06,760 --> 00:20:09,119
Speaker 4: weight and you know, asked for this one to be

445
00:20:09,119 --> 00:20:11,840
Speaker 4: moved to a catchweights. So he's the younger man, you know.

446
00:20:12,680 --> 00:20:14,840
Speaker 4: I don't think de Rod looked particularly good in his

447
00:20:14,920 --> 00:20:17,640
Speaker 4: last fight. He was knocked out by Ian Gary. We

448
00:20:17,640 --> 00:20:20,160
Speaker 4: were just talking about and I thought he looked slow

449
00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:22,800
Speaker 4: and then he popped for peds. He's coming back here

450
00:20:22,880 --> 00:20:25,720
Speaker 4: fine to Saudi Arabia at age thirty seven, so I

451
00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:27,960
Speaker 4: think he's on the back end of his career. I

452
00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:30,760
Speaker 4: think Calvin Gasloon would love to move to PFL and

453
00:20:30,840 --> 00:20:33,480
Speaker 4: fight for a million bucks rather than you know, fighting

454
00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:37,479
Speaker 4: top fifteen, top ten UFC middleweights in waltherweights. I think

455
00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:40,040
Speaker 4: he'd much rather be fighting for a million bucks against

456
00:20:40,040 --> 00:20:43,119
Speaker 4: fighters who were comparably skilled to him or to the

457
00:20:43,119 --> 00:20:47,000
Speaker 4: opponents he's facing. So southpaw versus South past. But this

458
00:20:47,040 --> 00:20:52,160
Speaker 4: is the Dan Tom officially stamped matchup of the Week

459
00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:54,520
Speaker 4: and fight of the night. But yeah, I think Dee

460
00:20:54,560 --> 00:20:58,720
Speaker 4: Roder passed clearly in terms of his side. I like

461
00:20:58,760 --> 00:21:01,159
Speaker 4: Billy's plus three and a half point spread angle and

462
00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:03,800
Speaker 4: Delby as well. I should echo that sentiment too. I

463
00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:07,240
Speaker 4: think it's likely that Delby wins around he I mean,

464
00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:10,199
Speaker 4: he's just like he's always game. And while we're not

465
00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:13,280
Speaker 4: is going for takedowns, Dalby's gonna be the one actually

466
00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:15,280
Speaker 4: throwing strikes and pouring on damage. So this could be

467
00:21:15,280 --> 00:21:20,200
Speaker 4: a damage versus control judging discrepancy two. And in Saudi

468
00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:22,080
Speaker 4: Arabia in the Middle East, I think the fighters who

469
00:21:22,080 --> 00:21:25,240
Speaker 4: get takedowns, they're going to get slightly more deference because

470
00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:28,840
Speaker 4: that's what the crowd is, you know, popping for regardless

471
00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:30,200
Speaker 4: of whether the judges.

472
00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:31,199
Speaker 3: Intend to do so or not.

473
00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:33,960
Speaker 4: I do think the crowd has an influence on the

474
00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:36,639
Speaker 4: way fights are scored. But yeah, Delby and Dlby d

475
00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:39,280
Speaker 4: rod are two consensus dogs for the weekend. Hopefully we

476
00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:41,160
Speaker 4: can get more of them home at plus two hundred

477
00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:41,560
Speaker 4: or better.

478
00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:45,760
Speaker 1: All Right, as you said, Rodriguez a three inch reach advantage.

479
00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:48,679
Speaker 3: He's a big man. He's the natural middleweight. He's just slower,

480
00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:48,919
Speaker 3: you know.

481
00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:53,760
Speaker 4: Galistlom has success at middleweight because he's quicker than these guys,

482
00:21:53,840 --> 00:21:57,440
Speaker 4: but he's no longer and shaite. He's never really been

483
00:21:57,440 --> 00:21:59,520
Speaker 4: in shape, but like this may be the worst shape

484
00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:02,119
Speaker 4: he's been in potentially, and as Billy alluded to, he

485
00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:03,560
Speaker 4: may be dealing with an injury, which is why I

486
00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:04,400
Speaker 4: requested the weight mess.

487
00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:05,920
Speaker 3: There's a lot of reasons though.

488
00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:09,239
Speaker 4: We both bet Adam Fugut last week and Fugut has

489
00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:11,680
Speaker 4: been training full time with Gasloan and Fuget Fuga looked

490
00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:17,520
Speaker 4: pretty good, so you know, hard to tell, but yeah,

491
00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:20,560
Speaker 4: I think d Rod clears side based on more the prices.

492
00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:23,959
Speaker 4: All right, Yeah, he doesn't separate, like unless he wrestles here,

493
00:22:24,240 --> 00:22:27,000
Speaker 4: He's not going to separate, So it'll be close.

494
00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:31,480
Speaker 1: UFC Fight Night, Saudi Arabia Best Bets. We roll on

495
00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:34,760
Speaker 1: to props. How does this week look for a props

496
00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:36,480
Speaker 1: or allow anything jump out to you in the market.

497
00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:38,359
Speaker 4: I think there could be a number of KOs, and

498
00:22:38,440 --> 00:22:40,560
Speaker 4: normally you would expect him to build a card for

499
00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:44,440
Speaker 4: Saudi Arabia around grapplers and fights that may end via submission.

500
00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:46,240
Speaker 4: But I think there's a number of fights on this

501
00:22:46,280 --> 00:22:48,399
Speaker 4: card that could end via violent KO and one of

502
00:22:48,440 --> 00:22:51,800
Speaker 4: them is Volcanos and we are against Johnny Walker, Johnny

503
00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:54,600
Speaker 4: Walker of one of the worst chins we've ever seen

504
00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:57,200
Speaker 4: in the UC. When he gets clip Clayton, he goes

505
00:22:57,240 --> 00:22:59,720
Speaker 4: down like a comic book character. He's the bigger band,

506
00:22:59,800 --> 00:23:01,960
Speaker 4: He's or taller, he has a seven inch reaga advantage,

507
00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:05,440
Speaker 4: he's younger, He's the better point fighter in this fight.

508
00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:08,120
Speaker 4: In my opinion, I think he can keep range, stay

509
00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:11,560
Speaker 4: on the outside. Since he's gone SPG Ireland, they've really

510
00:23:11,600 --> 00:23:14,040
Speaker 4: calmed down his style. They've made him much more composed,

511
00:23:14,560 --> 00:23:17,160
Speaker 4: keep him on the outside, kick the legs, uses length

512
00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:20,520
Speaker 4: to win minutes. But he's still got that bad shit,

513
00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:23,000
Speaker 4: and he's coming off of that knockout loss to Akliav.

514
00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:27,680
Speaker 4: You know, if you've been around MMA enough, you've seen

515
00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:29,600
Speaker 4: the video of him getting knocked out three times in

516
00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:32,879
Speaker 4: one fight. Regionally, he just sometimes Johnny Walker gets clipped

517
00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:38,120
Speaker 4: and he just falls over and Vulcan, even though he's

518
00:23:38,200 --> 00:23:40,919
Speaker 4: later in his career and I don't love his skill

519
00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:44,479
Speaker 4: set and his athleticism anymore, he still cracks and I

520
00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:47,800
Speaker 4: still think he can absolutely touch Walker's chin. So I'm

521
00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:51,760
Speaker 4: betting Ozdemir inside the distance by KO and then also

522
00:23:51,800 --> 00:23:54,199
Speaker 4: the under in this fight. I think there's value on

523
00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:58,560
Speaker 4: all three. But the reason why I'm more so with

524
00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:01,560
Speaker 4: Ozermir's finished props is post to just straight up betting

525
00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:04,000
Speaker 4: the under. I don't think Walker is as aggressive as

526
00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:06,200
Speaker 4: he used to be. I think actually his likeliest finished

527
00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:09,840
Speaker 4: here comes via grappling. I could see these two getting

528
00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:13,200
Speaker 4: tied up at grappling exchange and Walker locking in a choke,

529
00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:16,800
Speaker 4: you know, and finishing via submission. But I do think

530
00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:20,479
Speaker 4: Osdemir has a very high probability of landing a knockout

531
00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:24,080
Speaker 4: blow here. So Osdemir and Ko and then maybe the

532
00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:27,639
Speaker 4: under as well, but definitely prefer the Oseneber side of

533
00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:29,159
Speaker 4: those fetish problems.

534
00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:33,040
Speaker 1: Billy prop market, what uh what did you find?

535
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:37,040
Speaker 5: Yeah, real quick on Shohn's I definitely like the under.

536
00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:39,840
Speaker 5: I'm not convinced on Osamir. I just have such a

537
00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:43,520
Speaker 5: hard time betting Johnny Walker because he's winning every fight

538
00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:47,240
Speaker 5: until he doesn't. Right Like he's he's winning every he

539
00:24:47,359 --> 00:24:49,800
Speaker 5: looks great, he's piecing on ban Kalaiah's legs. You know,

540
00:24:49,800 --> 00:24:52,520
Speaker 5: he's looking fine. Oh now he's unconscious or oh now

541
00:24:52,520 --> 00:24:55,280
Speaker 5: he's submitted. It just it's the most frustrating thing to

542
00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:58,359
Speaker 5: watch because he's probably one ninety nine percent of the

543
00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:01,879
Speaker 5: second he's fought in UFC, probably not ninety nine, but

544
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:04,639
Speaker 5: you know what I'm saying, And his record's not that great,

545
00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:05,360
Speaker 5: so yeah.

546
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:08,840
Speaker 4: It's very money line, like it's it's clear Walker or

547
00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:10,800
Speaker 4: pass in the money line, but it was mere props

548
00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:11,240
Speaker 4: for sure.

549
00:25:11,280 --> 00:25:15,280
Speaker 5: Interesting and you could almost even make a case for

550
00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:17,360
Speaker 5: trying to wait. I know, is Demir live because if

551
00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:20,320
Speaker 5: Walker sustains that, I'm kind of winning the round and

552
00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:23,280
Speaker 5: then you're just hoping that something terrible happens to him,

553
00:25:23,359 --> 00:25:26,120
Speaker 5: as it so often seems to in rounds two and three.

554
00:25:26,160 --> 00:25:28,840
Speaker 5: But yeah, interesting fight. I'm very excited to see that one.

555
00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:31,200
Speaker 5: Don't love trying to pick a bet on it, just

556
00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:34,920
Speaker 5: because Walker is so frustrating. The one I'm looking at

557
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:37,840
Speaker 5: is Moon gaffer off by knockout or inside the distance.

558
00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:39,159
Speaker 5: I'm sorry, a plus two forty.

559
00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:40,119
Speaker 6: This is another one.

560
00:25:40,119 --> 00:25:41,679
Speaker 5: I had him in my lock ratings when he was

561
00:25:42,160 --> 00:25:44,639
Speaker 5: when his money line was minus one forty, kind of

562
00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:47,479
Speaker 5: like that side of it against young Ho King. King's

563
00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:50,720
Speaker 5: you know, older guy, not his athletic anymore. Gaffer off

564
00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:53,160
Speaker 5: zero to two in the UFC. But one of those

565
00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:55,760
Speaker 5: is say Nemaga made off the other with short notice.

566
00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:58,439
Speaker 5: He's probably training full time as a fighter and not

567
00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:00,720
Speaker 5: working at a supermarket for the first time.

568
00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:01,879
Speaker 6: I didn't even make that up.

569
00:26:01,920 --> 00:26:03,600
Speaker 5: He's had on the broadcast that he had been working

570
00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:06,760
Speaker 5: at a supermarket until like three days before his UFC debut,

571
00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:09,400
Speaker 5: So you got to project a little bit of progression

572
00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:11,040
Speaker 5: there for a twenty eight year old guy who can

573
00:26:11,080 --> 00:26:14,320
Speaker 5: now focus on the sport full time. With that said,

574
00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:16,560
Speaker 5: the money line's blown out. It's now minus one sixty

575
00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:19,919
Speaker 5: five minus one seventy. Gafferrov has finished seventeen of his

576
00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:23,160
Speaker 5: eighteen pro wins, and we're saying his odds of finishing

577
00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:25,080
Speaker 5: this one or plus two forty compared to a minus

578
00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:26,159
Speaker 5: one sixty money line.

579
00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:28,000
Speaker 6: The discrepancy is just too wide.

580
00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:29,600
Speaker 5: So if you missed that money line or want to

581
00:26:29,640 --> 00:26:31,560
Speaker 5: add on, I think that's the right way to play it.

582
00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:35,280
Speaker 5: Kang is very durable, so it's kind of an unstoppable

583
00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:39,440
Speaker 5: force and movable object type situation here. But his I

584
00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:43,119
Speaker 5: would say, Kyn's cardio is probably much better than Gafferrov's

585
00:26:43,119 --> 00:26:45,040
Speaker 5: and he's probably likely to take over late, so you

586
00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:47,320
Speaker 5: almost need that finish for Gaffrov to get the win

587
00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:49,879
Speaker 5: at all, which means those two lines should be closer

588
00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:52,760
Speaker 5: to each other. So not super convinced that he's the

589
00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:54,520
Speaker 5: better fighter here, but it's just too wide of a

590
00:26:54,560 --> 00:26:55,960
Speaker 5: line relative to his money line.

591
00:26:56,440 --> 00:26:59,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, I like Kang live giving the cardio discrepancy. I'm

592
00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:01,320
Speaker 4: just gonna wait till lie after round one. But that's

593
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:02,640
Speaker 4: that's my approach the fight.

594
00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:05,639
Speaker 5: I feel like we've got seven of those on this

595
00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:07,880
Speaker 5: eleven fight card, where one.

596
00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:09,639
Speaker 4: Guy to want to live after round one, and a

597
00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:12,200
Speaker 4: lot of fights that I think like one guy could

598
00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:14,280
Speaker 4: win by knockout, but the other guy's probably a better

599
00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:16,040
Speaker 4: point fighter. So how do I want to bet it?

600
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:17,560
Speaker 4: Do I want to bet the other guy living late?

601
00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:19,760
Speaker 4: Do I want to bet you know, the knockout proper early?

602
00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:22,919
Speaker 4: So yeah, a lot of those like kind of I mean,

603
00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:24,679
Speaker 4: we were discussing the fights yesterday. It seemed like we

604
00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:26,320
Speaker 4: had the same read on a lot of the fights.

605
00:27:26,359 --> 00:27:27,800
Speaker 4: We were just betting them slightly differently.

606
00:27:27,880 --> 00:27:29,800
Speaker 5: So yeah, But I mean the main event, the co

607
00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:32,280
Speaker 5: main event is up and down real quick before we

608
00:27:32,280 --> 00:27:34,560
Speaker 5: go to best bets. I want to sean It's a

609
00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:37,679
Speaker 5: small sample size, but these new gloves that in theory

610
00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:40,800
Speaker 5: have less padding, seems to have really cut knockouts down

611
00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:43,320
Speaker 5: since three or two in the debut. Do you think

612
00:27:43,320 --> 00:27:44,919
Speaker 5: there's anything there or do you think it's kind of

613
00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:47,359
Speaker 5: just a scheduling quirk with who we've had in these fights.

614
00:27:47,560 --> 00:27:49,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's a scheduling quirk. I need to see.

615
00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:52,280
Speaker 4: I feel like we've had mostly smaller fighters too, Like

616
00:27:52,320 --> 00:27:55,360
Speaker 4: we haven't had a lot of the light heavyweights, heavyweights, middleweights.

617
00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:57,640
Speaker 4: It seems like for a while we've had one heavyweight

618
00:27:57,680 --> 00:27:59,919
Speaker 4: fight on every single main card.

619
00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:00,679
Speaker 3: Have one here.

620
00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:03,520
Speaker 4: Don't feel like we've had a lot of heavyweight fights plaits,

621
00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:06,280
Speaker 4: So it might just be a small sample, you know,

622
00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:09,320
Speaker 4: lower weight classes, the fighters that they've had in particular,

623
00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:10,919
Speaker 4: I think we need to see a play out for

624
00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:13,000
Speaker 4: like a year before we make any real calls.

625
00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:15,760
Speaker 5: If these Russians go to a decision and can't hurt

626
00:28:15,800 --> 00:28:17,679
Speaker 5: each other, though, I'm hitting the panic button, Like, if

627
00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:20,720
Speaker 5: these two all people can't do damage, there's got to

628
00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:22,600
Speaker 5: then there's got to be something with the gloves. So

629
00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:25,280
Speaker 5: that's an interesting one frontingone watching and just in terms

630
00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:29,520
Speaker 5: of long term betting, if suddenly Sergey Pavlovitch can't knock

631
00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:31,080
Speaker 5: a guy out, there's got to be something going on

632
00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:31,840
Speaker 5: of all people.

633
00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:35,520
Speaker 1: I would also, I don't mean to speak for both

634
00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:37,960
Speaker 1: of you, but as you guys bring up these live angles,

635
00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:40,880
Speaker 1: I think it's important to remind folks that just because

636
00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:44,720
Speaker 1: you guys are thinking about a live angle, you might

637
00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:46,800
Speaker 1: not do it right because you got to you might

638
00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:49,400
Speaker 1: need to see something, or maybe there's something you do

639
00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:52,440
Speaker 1: see that entices you not to do it right, just to.

640
00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:54,640
Speaker 4: Be christ And it could be you know, a guy

641
00:28:54,680 --> 00:28:56,320
Speaker 4: could get his leg like chopped a part in the

642
00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:58,960
Speaker 4: first round, and I'm like, well, yeah, like he lost

643
00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:01,440
Speaker 4: the first round, but also his ability to move for

644
00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:03,440
Speaker 4: the final two rounds is now compromised, so I don't

645
00:29:03,440 --> 00:29:05,280
Speaker 4: want to bet on him as a result of that.

646
00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:08,440
Speaker 4: But yeah, more often than not, I'm evaluating where there's

647
00:29:08,480 --> 00:29:12,200
Speaker 4: a cardio discrepancy, where there's a potential cardiodynamic that heavily

648
00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:15,120
Speaker 4: favors one fighter, and if they are a better price

649
00:29:15,240 --> 00:29:17,240
Speaker 4: lab after run one, then they were pre fighter. If

650
00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:20,400
Speaker 4: they're even a reasonable you know, adjustment, and if they

651
00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:22,200
Speaker 4: if I think there's a chance they won the first

652
00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:24,400
Speaker 4: round and the line stays about the same or even

653
00:29:24,440 --> 00:29:27,680
Speaker 4: moved slightly towards them, you know, considering I give them

654
00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:30,080
Speaker 4: significantly more chance of winning round two and round three

655
00:29:30,120 --> 00:29:32,680
Speaker 4: than I did in round one, I'm almost always going

656
00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:35,320
Speaker 4: to bet it, assuming you know the line doesn't move

657
00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:39,400
Speaker 4: significantly in their direction after round one or assuming they

658
00:29:39,400 --> 00:29:42,960
Speaker 4: didn't get you know, a attritional injury, that would compromise

659
00:29:43,040 --> 00:29:44,200
Speaker 4: them over their manader of the fight.

660
00:29:45,240 --> 00:29:47,200
Speaker 5: But if Volkov gets to take down in round one

661
00:29:47,240 --> 00:29:49,240
Speaker 5: a his minus two hundred on the stool, we're probably

662
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:49,720
Speaker 5: not doing that.

663
00:29:50,080 --> 00:29:53,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, correct, right, okay, very good? Just a reminder. I

664
00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:55,240
Speaker 1: know we do a ton of these, so I think, folks,

665
00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:56,880
Speaker 1: just a good reminders and the window.

666
00:29:57,000 --> 00:29:59,360
Speaker 4: Unfortunately, the window is too short between rounds to really

667
00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:01,120
Speaker 4: fire them app. By the time I enter them in

668
00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:03,160
Speaker 4: the app, you know you're going to get the notification

669
00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:05,080
Speaker 4: as the round is starting and the market's going to

670
00:30:05,120 --> 00:30:07,440
Speaker 4: be locked, so it's really of no use other than

671
00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:09,080
Speaker 4: me tracking it to put them in the app. But

672
00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:11,520
Speaker 4: that is why I like to highlight them beforehand and

673
00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:13,800
Speaker 4: just let you know I'm, you know, most likely going

674
00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:14,680
Speaker 4: to be live betting it.

675
00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:17,560
Speaker 1: If I can, or if you you know, want to

676
00:30:17,560 --> 00:30:20,560
Speaker 1: have some people over and you want to be nice, sure, yeah,

677
00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:24,480
Speaker 1: don't do that. People can be vicious. All right, Let's

678
00:30:24,480 --> 00:30:26,680
Speaker 1: do best bets before we get out of here, or

679
00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:30,000
Speaker 1: a final bet. I'm not too sure, Jonzilla, what do

680
00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:31,760
Speaker 1: you have for us money? It's a money line side

681
00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:32,000
Speaker 1: for you.

682
00:30:32,600 --> 00:30:35,760
Speaker 4: Best bet for this week Felipe Lima at about minus

683
00:30:35,760 --> 00:30:38,400
Speaker 4: one twelve minus one fourteen, best number I see currently

684
00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:42,160
Speaker 4: against Mohammed Namov. Lima was plus one ten earlier in

685
00:30:42,200 --> 00:30:44,320
Speaker 4: the week. In terms of how I model these out,

686
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:47,760
Speaker 4: you know, looking at how people are picking these fighters,

687
00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:51,200
Speaker 4: incorporating that into my process. Name of is getting picked

688
00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:53,800
Speaker 4: at about an eighty five percent clip this week. I mean,

689
00:30:53,800 --> 00:30:57,520
Speaker 4: he is as heavy of a public side as I've

690
00:30:57,560 --> 00:31:00,440
Speaker 4: seen in a fight that is lined like this fifty

691
00:31:00,440 --> 00:31:03,160
Speaker 4: to fifty, and the line keeps ticking towards Lima. So

692
00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:05,800
Speaker 4: no doubt in my mind that Lima is the sharp

693
00:31:05,840 --> 00:31:07,600
Speaker 4: side of the market, even though it does seem like

694
00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:11,360
Speaker 4: there's a high percentage of bets and money on Nameov.

695
00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:15,880
Speaker 4: But I'm very impressed by Felipe Lima, and I'll.

696
00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:18,000
Speaker 3: Start off with the concerns. So here's the concerns.

697
00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:20,960
Speaker 4: He's a one thirty five or he's abandon weight coming

698
00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:23,480
Speaker 4: up to one forty five on short notice to face

699
00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:26,600
Speaker 4: Muhammed Damov, who's a good wrestler at a bigger man.

700
00:31:26,680 --> 00:31:28,800
Speaker 4: Namov is a bit of a weight bully in my opinion.

701
00:31:29,160 --> 00:31:32,800
Speaker 4: He has trouble making featherweight to a degree. He's a

702
00:31:32,840 --> 00:31:36,560
Speaker 4: really good wrestler. He's powerful, but his cardio goes after

703
00:31:36,800 --> 00:31:40,240
Speaker 4: round one, So I think there's a decent chance that

704
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:43,840
Speaker 4: Namov wins the first round with wrestling and with that

705
00:31:43,960 --> 00:31:47,160
Speaker 4: strength and gets on top. But Lima's not going away.

706
00:31:47,200 --> 00:31:49,480
Speaker 4: This guy just won a five round title fight in

707
00:31:49,600 --> 00:31:53,960
Speaker 4: Ocagon FC where his cardio look absolutely tremendous. He's the

708
00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:57,120
Speaker 4: much better striker in this fight. He is excellent footwork.

709
00:31:57,480 --> 00:32:00,920
Speaker 4: If you've seen these other fighters from All Star in Sweden,

710
00:32:01,720 --> 00:32:05,920
Speaker 4: Josephine Knutsen who fought last week, but you know gram

711
00:32:05,960 --> 00:32:09,880
Speaker 4: Kutadlad's Hamzat, these guys all have like excellent footwork at

712
00:32:09,880 --> 00:32:13,080
Speaker 4: striking range, and Lima's impresses me more so than any

713
00:32:13,120 --> 00:32:16,360
Speaker 4: of the rest of them. He's just has like incredible

714
00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:19,040
Speaker 4: movement inside the pocket. You go to strike, he gets

715
00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:21,880
Speaker 4: right right out of range, then steps back where he

716
00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:25,320
Speaker 4: knows he can hit you and fires great combinations. I

717
00:32:25,400 --> 00:32:28,400
Speaker 4: really like his striking. He flows really well in the

718
00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:31,640
Speaker 4: grappling exchanges. I just have a concern about the strinth

719
00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:34,720
Speaker 4: discrapancy early on. I think there's a chance that name

720
00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:36,920
Speaker 4: Off can hold him down and control him. But this

721
00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:39,320
Speaker 4: kid's not going to stop working to get up, and

722
00:32:40,600 --> 00:32:44,160
Speaker 4: I mean he's very willing to slap on submissions from

723
00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:48,680
Speaker 4: different positions. He's constantly attacking, So I really like his strikling.

724
00:32:48,760 --> 00:32:51,160
Speaker 4: I think he's going to be a big threat in

725
00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:54,040
Speaker 4: the grappling in terms of throwing on submissions, potentially locking

726
00:32:54,040 --> 00:32:57,800
Speaker 4: in a guillotine. That's like both a good end of

727
00:32:57,840 --> 00:32:59,560
Speaker 4: bad right because he could get the guillotine, but it

728
00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:01,880
Speaker 4: could also so put him on his back. He doesn't

729
00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:03,440
Speaker 4: seem to go for it though, until he knows he's

730
00:33:03,440 --> 00:33:06,040
Speaker 4: already being taken down, like until he knows the takedown

731
00:33:06,080 --> 00:33:08,280
Speaker 4: is already pretty much finished and consolidated, and then he'll

732
00:33:08,600 --> 00:33:10,600
Speaker 4: reach under the neck for it. So I just like

733
00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:13,080
Speaker 4: how this kid's always constantly attacking. I don't really think

734
00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:15,840
Speaker 4: name Off is going to land nearly as much damage.

735
00:33:16,600 --> 00:33:19,200
Speaker 4: And I think just overall, Lima is a high level

736
00:33:19,160 --> 00:33:20,880
Speaker 4: of prospect who I want to get on on early.

737
00:33:21,120 --> 00:33:24,280
Speaker 4: I don't expect if he wins this fight that you're

738
00:33:24,280 --> 00:33:26,600
Speaker 4: going to get any sort of reasonable prices on him

739
00:33:26,600 --> 00:33:30,000
Speaker 4: going forward, even against bantam weights, because he looks really

740
00:33:30,040 --> 00:33:32,080
Speaker 4: talented to me, you know, you're kind of measuring one

741
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:35,120
Speaker 4: level against the next. Forecasting a guy in the regional

742
00:33:35,160 --> 00:33:37,560
Speaker 4: scene into the UFC against the guy who's three to

743
00:33:37,600 --> 00:33:41,680
Speaker 4: zero in the UFC, and he's taking a short notice fight,

744
00:33:41,760 --> 00:33:43,840
Speaker 4: so you know, up a division like those are all

745
00:33:44,000 --> 00:33:47,360
Speaker 4: significant concerns. But I rate Lima pretty highly and I

746
00:33:47,360 --> 00:33:51,520
Speaker 4: think he's a pretty serious prospect. So after round one,

747
00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:53,240
Speaker 4: I think he may get a better live price, but

748
00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:56,200
Speaker 4: willing to take some pre fight at about a Pickham

749
00:33:56,240 --> 00:33:58,880
Speaker 4: price projected him closer to minus one fifty, so I

750
00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:00,760
Speaker 4: think minus one thirty or bat pre fight and then

751
00:34:00,800 --> 00:34:01,880
Speaker 4: into a live bet as well.

752
00:34:02,080 --> 00:34:05,400
Speaker 1: Okay, and Billy, you also have another fight you're eyeing,

753
00:34:06,040 --> 00:34:07,600
Speaker 1: but on the money line for a best bet.

754
00:34:08,440 --> 00:34:09,719
Speaker 6: Yeah, certainly a final bet.

755
00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:13,040
Speaker 5: I don't actually feel super strongly about this one, especially

756
00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:14,920
Speaker 5: now that the plus money is gone, because I got

757
00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:17,319
Speaker 5: either plus one ten plus one oh five earlier in

758
00:34:17,320 --> 00:34:20,400
Speaker 5: the week. It's the opening fight between Chang Holy and

759
00:34:20,440 --> 00:34:22,800
Speaker 5: Long Zhao. I am on the Chang Ho Lee side.

760
00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:25,920
Speaker 5: This is the finale of the road to the UFC tournament,

761
00:34:25,960 --> 00:34:28,799
Speaker 5: where they have Asian prospects do a little tournament thing

762
00:34:29,160 --> 00:34:32,799
Speaker 5: last fights in the UFC. This basically isn't even really

763
00:34:32,800 --> 00:34:35,440
Speaker 5: a UFC fight yet. They're doing it in the octagon

764
00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:36,800
Speaker 5: on a UFC card, but it's kind of like the

765
00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:39,640
Speaker 5: Ultimate Fighter Finale, where it's just a separate thing that

766
00:34:39,680 --> 00:34:43,080
Speaker 5: happens to be be there. Don't know a ton about

767
00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:46,239
Speaker 5: either guy. Evaluating their tape is super hard because they're

768
00:34:46,239 --> 00:34:49,160
Speaker 5: also fighting other Asian prospects we haven't heard of, and

769
00:34:49,200 --> 00:34:52,080
Speaker 5: it's kind of this weird recursive bubble of they've all

770
00:34:52,120 --> 00:34:53,719
Speaker 5: fought more or less the same guys in the same

771
00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:57,319
Speaker 5: level of competition. It's hard to tell much. With that said,

772
00:34:57,400 --> 00:34:59,279
Speaker 5: Chang Ho Lee finished both of his fights on the

773
00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:01,920
Speaker 5: road to the UFC. Long Zhao had a split decision

774
00:35:02,080 --> 00:35:03,240
Speaker 5: and a majority decision.

775
00:35:04,640 --> 00:35:06,520
Speaker 6: He might not deserve to be here, you know.

776
00:35:06,600 --> 00:35:08,680
Speaker 5: I didn't go back and judge those fights to try

777
00:35:08,719 --> 00:35:12,000
Speaker 5: to see what I thought, but had two very tight

778
00:35:12,000 --> 00:35:14,959
Speaker 5: fights basically at best and at worst, he got lucky

779
00:35:15,000 --> 00:35:17,400
Speaker 5: to even get here. So one guy has more finishing

780
00:35:17,480 --> 00:35:21,360
Speaker 5: upside fight probably likelier than not to go to a decision,

781
00:35:21,719 --> 00:35:23,920
Speaker 5: not saying based on the line, just in my own estimation.

782
00:35:24,719 --> 00:35:26,600
Speaker 6: So we were getting Lee at plus money, I like that.

783
00:35:26,800 --> 00:35:28,480
Speaker 6: I would still bet him at minus one. Oh five.

784
00:35:29,480 --> 00:35:31,360
Speaker 5: Don't love it as much as when it was plus money,

785
00:35:31,680 --> 00:35:34,400
Speaker 5: but that's that's how I'm playing it. And then Sean

786
00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:36,720
Speaker 5: you totally talked me into a live bet on flipe

787
00:35:36,760 --> 00:35:38,759
Speaker 5: A Lima. Not sure I can do the pre fight

788
00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:41,160
Speaker 5: since he's given up like twenty pounds in cage, but

789
00:35:41,560 --> 00:35:43,000
Speaker 5: I think he made some really good points on the

790
00:35:43,040 --> 00:35:45,800
Speaker 5: live one there, which again I know is tough for

791
00:35:45,840 --> 00:35:48,200
Speaker 5: people listening, where it's like, here's these nine live spots,

792
00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:48,799
Speaker 5: we like.

793
00:35:49,200 --> 00:35:52,399
Speaker 4: Don't bet anything now, but get a live card makes sense? Yeah, yeah,

794
00:35:52,440 --> 00:35:54,759
Speaker 4: it's good. It's a good card for live betting. And

795
00:35:54,960 --> 00:35:57,120
Speaker 4: fortunately it's you know, in the middle of the afternoon

796
00:35:57,160 --> 00:35:59,879
Speaker 4: on Saturday, it's not Saturday, you know, the main event

797
00:36:00,080 --> 00:36:01,839
Speaker 4: and starting at one am like it did last week

798
00:36:01,840 --> 00:36:04,000
Speaker 4: for tatsu Retiro, so hopefully people are around a live

799
00:36:04,000 --> 00:36:07,640
Speaker 4: bet at But yeah, just you know, lima live bet,

800
00:36:07,719 --> 00:36:10,920
Speaker 4: Nicholas Dalby live bet. Kang is a live bet for me,

801
00:36:13,280 --> 00:36:16,360
Speaker 4: not Oz Demir. Maybe Johnny Walker live I don't know

802
00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:18,279
Speaker 4: about that. If he gets if he gets clipped and

803
00:36:18,280 --> 00:36:19,600
Speaker 4: then gets back up and then goes back to a

804
00:36:19,640 --> 00:36:21,080
Speaker 4: minute winning, I don't know if I want a Johnny

805
00:36:21,080 --> 00:36:23,080
Speaker 4: Walker live bet, but he would probably be the side

806
00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:27,520
Speaker 4: if he gets hitting round one nothing on Rodriguez Gaslo

807
00:36:27,640 --> 00:36:30,640
Speaker 4: and probably but then Volkov a livet and Whitaker live bet.

808
00:36:30,680 --> 00:36:32,640
Speaker 4: So yeah, that's that's about five or six live bets

809
00:36:32,680 --> 00:36:34,399
Speaker 4: there across this Eliven fight card.

810
00:36:35,080 --> 00:36:38,200
Speaker 1: All right, very good. I'll get started at noon Eastern

811
00:36:38,280 --> 00:36:41,280
Speaker 1: with the pre limbs and then three o'clock main card

812
00:36:41,320 --> 00:36:45,560
Speaker 1: ABC for the main card for UFC Fight Night Saudi Arabia,

813
00:36:46,000 --> 00:36:48,879
Speaker 1: Sean Zillo and Billy Ward are in the Action app

814
00:36:48,920 --> 00:36:51,520
Speaker 1: Be sure to follow those guys for anything pre fight

815
00:36:51,719 --> 00:36:53,759
Speaker 1: and also they're right up in their analysis if you

816
00:36:54,200 --> 00:36:57,360
Speaker 1: tuned in as these guys have talked about these live angles.

817
00:36:57,360 --> 00:36:59,080
Speaker 1: At least we're talking about it now so you can

818
00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:03,000
Speaker 1: foreshadow a bit once the day gets here on Saturday afternoon.

819
00:37:03,440 --> 00:37:06,360
Speaker 1: We'll be back next week for another UFC betting preview

820
00:37:06,440 --> 00:37:09,319
Speaker 1: here on the Action Network podcast. We are presented by

821
00:37:09,400 --> 00:37:21,880
Speaker 1: at MGM. Best of luck this weekend. Enjoy. Action Network

822
00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:26,080
Speaker 1: reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you

823
00:37:26,120 --> 00:37:29,280
Speaker 1: care about has a gambling problem, Help is available twenty

824
00:37:29,320 --> 00:37:31,520
Speaker 1: four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler