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Speaker 1: What's going on everybody.

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Speaker 2: Scott Bogman here for Betting Pros to give you my

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Speaker 2: favorite picks and props for Week fourteen, the final week

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Speaker 2: of the college football regular season. A little bit early

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Speaker 2: this week, looking back at last week, three and four

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Speaker 2: on the picks, two and one on the touchdowns, and

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Speaker 2: six and four on the props, so overall winning week.

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Speaker 1: That Rice game, man, that's the one that got me.

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Speaker 2: I didn't get Rice, I didn't get the under on that,

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Speaker 2: and that's the one that got me for the picks.

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Speaker 2: So remember, if you want to tell me, you know,

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Speaker 2: if you like my bets or you want to fade

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Speaker 2: the me the way I understand, you can do that

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Speaker 2: on the Betting prosapp or at Bettingpros dot com slash

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Speaker 2: Bogman bog m an that is where you can find me.

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Speaker 2: Let's get into the picks for this week. I have

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Speaker 2: five for you here. Let's go first to Mississippi State

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Speaker 2: at Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl. I'm going to

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Speaker 2: take the twenty six and a half if that's what

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Speaker 2: they're gonna give us for Mississippi State, and I think

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Speaker 2: this line would probably be I mean, I think this

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Speaker 2: line is right Mississippi State is not good. Ole Miss

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Speaker 2: is good, but they're coming off a bad loss. This

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Speaker 2: is a rivalry game that always plays closer than this

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Speaker 2: In the Egg Bowl. We haven't seen a margin of

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Speaker 2: this level since twenty eighteen, and that was with Mississippi

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Speaker 2: State winning thirty five to three. And Ole Miss hasn't

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Speaker 2: put this type of a beatdown on Mississippi State since

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Speaker 2: two thousand and eight, so this plays traditionally a little

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Speaker 2: bit closer. And Mississippi State has against the spread victories

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Speaker 2: against Texas, Georgia, Texas A and M and Tennessee this year,

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Speaker 2: and their offense is around middle of the pack. I

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Speaker 2: think that's really what gets it done. The loss of

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Speaker 2: Florida also seemed to really be just crushing for Ole Miss.

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Speaker 2: Lane Kiffin looked like he was gonna cry in the

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Speaker 2: press conference, and we've seen one loss turn it into

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Speaker 2: two losses for teams this year. I don't think that's

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Speaker 2: what's going to happen here. I do think Ole Miss

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Speaker 2: still wins, and probably by fourteen, maybe even twenty one,

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Speaker 2: but three touchdowns. We're still hitting this prop or this

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Speaker 2: pick because it's twenty six and half points. So Mississippi

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Speaker 2: State only loss of this margin was to Arkansas. Arkansas

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Speaker 2: force five turnovers. But what they typically do, and I

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Speaker 2: watched this, you know, all game against Texas and I've

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Speaker 2: seen them do it against other teams, is they just

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Speaker 2: slow it down. When they're playing a team that they

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Speaker 2: know is going to be very tough, they slow the

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Speaker 2: pace of the game down and don't want to give

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Speaker 2: that offense the ball. So I think we're gonna see

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Speaker 2: more of that from Missippi State. And the margin is

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Speaker 2: so big here, it's plus twenty six and a half.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna take that.

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Speaker 2: We're also gonna take points for South Carolina at Clemson

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Speaker 2: the Palmeto Bowl. This is just a simple formula of

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Speaker 2: South Carolina's playing their best football and Clemson is not

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Speaker 2: playing their best football. And Clemson has hit bumps against

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Speaker 2: the hardest teams. They played Georgia Louisville. They lost those games.

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Speaker 2: They should have lost to pitt as well. If it

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Speaker 2: wasn't for that kid Klubnik crazy run at the end,

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Speaker 2: they would have been going into overtime and that team

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Speaker 2: would have played a lot closer. And we've just seen

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Speaker 2: South Carolina play some good football and the quarterback sellers

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Speaker 2: he switched to contacts at some point. He's had his

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Speaker 2: last his best two games, or his last two against

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Speaker 2: Watford twenty three of twenty seven, three hundred and seven yards,

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Speaker 2: three touchdowns, one pick, and then against Missouri three hundred

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Speaker 2: and twenty three yards on twenty and thirty passing five

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Speaker 2: touchdowns in a pick. So I think that is a

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Speaker 2: major contributing factor to why I like South Carolina here.

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Speaker 2: And also, Clemson offensive line has had issues with injuries,

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Speaker 2: and this defensive line for South Carolina is one of

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Speaker 2: the best in the nation. I mean, Kyle Canard and

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Speaker 2: Dylan Stewart, the true freshman, have been crazy. Canard is

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Speaker 2: going to be a high NFL draft pick. Dylan Stewart

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Speaker 2: was a five star prospect. I mean, this defensive line

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Speaker 2: is really, really good. The only thing Clemson really has

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Speaker 2: going for them is that they're playing at home, so

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Speaker 2: tough game rivalry. Game here should be a close one,

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Speaker 2: which is why this spread is only two and a

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Speaker 2: half points. But I like South Carolina on the money line,

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Speaker 2: so I'll go ahead and take them. Let's go to

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Speaker 2: Kansas minus one and a half at Baylor. Look, I mean,

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Speaker 2: sometimes you just have to see a team that is streaking.

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Speaker 2: I let them get me last week because I picked Colorado.

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Speaker 2: I really I picked the over in that game. They

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Speaker 2: held Colorado. But for me, it's just we're laying the points.

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Speaker 2: We're taking Kansas right now. It's at Baylor, and Baylor's

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Speaker 2: been good. They're on a nice little win streak too.

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Speaker 2: They've clinched the spot in the bowl game. Baylor's beaten

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Speaker 2: teams by scoring. Houston was able to hold them down

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Speaker 2: to twenty points though, and drag them in the mud

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Speaker 2: a little bit. And these are probably two of the

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Speaker 2: hottest teams in the Big Twelve, but no one is

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Speaker 2: hotter than Kansas right now. Devin Neil scored a bunch

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Speaker 2: of times last week. I just this should be one

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Speaker 2: of the higher scoring games of this week because Baylor's

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Speaker 2: been playing hot on offense, Kansas has been playing hot

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Speaker 2: on offense. But I'm gonna take the Jayhawks and lay

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Speaker 2: the points. I'm just this, this has bit me before,

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Speaker 2: so we're gonna follow the trend. And Kansas is winning.

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Speaker 2: They have to win this game to get to a

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Speaker 2: bowl game. It's a little more on the line for

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Speaker 2: them as well, So I think we're gonna see you know,

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Speaker 2: just more of the same of what we've seen for

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Speaker 2: Kansas and that is the team that we expected coming

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Speaker 2: into the year. That's the team we're getting now. That's

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Speaker 2: why they were ranked, that's why they were high up

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Speaker 2: in the standings. And you know, they've lost a lot

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Speaker 2: against the spread because they weren't good early this year

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Speaker 2: and now they're a little underrated, not now now that

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Speaker 2: they're favored and have won gone on this winning streak.

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Speaker 2: But I think they're better than Baylor. So let's go

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Speaker 2: and lay the one and a half there. Let's go

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Speaker 2: to Farmageddon. We're going We're going to back the other

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Speaker 2: team in Kansas as well, Kansas State at Iowa State.

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Speaker 2: We were getting two and a half points here. And

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Speaker 2: this one is really about the matchup. It's about again,

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Speaker 2: kind of like the South Carolina and Clemson game. It's

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Speaker 2: just that Kansas State is playing well. Iowa State is

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Speaker 2: not playing well. It's the running that Kansas State does

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Speaker 2: is my big fear for Iowa State. They've let up

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Speaker 2: a lot of rushing yards recently, three hundred and fifty

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Speaker 2: four to UCF in that game, they should have lost

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Speaker 2: two hundred and thirty seven to Kansas and they did

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Speaker 2: lose two and thirty seven to cents. They ended up

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Speaker 2: winning that game. Case State is sixteenth in rush yards

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Speaker 2: per game. DJ Giddens is such a good back. Every

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Speaker 2: Johnston runs as well. I just don't think that Iowa

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Speaker 2: State matches up really well here. K State's been bad

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Speaker 2: on the road, and I know that's been used against them,

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Speaker 2: but the game that they won on the road was

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Speaker 2: against Colorado, who I still think is a better team

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Speaker 2: than them.

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Speaker 1: So they can't go up. They can play well. I

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Speaker 1: think those issues.

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Speaker 2: Are a little bit behind them, the road issues. So

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna take k State plus the two and a

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Speaker 2: half or on the money line. The last one we're

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Speaker 2: gonna do for the picks is Houston at BYU. Were

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Speaker 2: gonna go under forty one and a half. Eight of

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Speaker 2: eleven games they played have gone under this total. Houston

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Speaker 2: has a really strong defense and a really bad offense.

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Speaker 2: You know, we've seen BYU. They put up twenty three

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Speaker 2: points last week against a week Arizona State team. I

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Speaker 2: just Arizona State pass defense. I should say Arizona State's

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Speaker 2: a very good team. They're not a weak team, but

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Speaker 2: their defense should you know, should not have held BYU

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Speaker 2: to only twenty three points. Point is Houston plays strong defense.

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Speaker 2: BYU's offense is not clicking right now. Utah has scored

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Speaker 2: twenty three or fewer points in three straight games. I

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Speaker 2: do think they win this game, but I think this

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Speaker 2: game is like thirty one to three or twenty four

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Speaker 2: to ten or something like that. I don't think that

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Speaker 2: this is going to be a high scoring affair. I

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Speaker 2: think BYU gets two scores and leans on it. They

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Speaker 2: run the ball a lot. They know that Xeon Chris

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Speaker 2: in this Houston offense is probably not going to play

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Speaker 2: very well because they haven't all year, and I think

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Speaker 2: if they get up big, they're just going to run

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Speaker 2: the ball, control the clock, and bleed it out. So

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Speaker 2: I think that because they have they got a shot

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Speaker 2: at the Big twelve title game, they're not going to

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Speaker 2: mess around. They're not going to put the ball up

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Speaker 2: for grabs and let this Houston defense back into the

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Speaker 2: game or this Houston offense back in the game. So

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Speaker 2: I think this one is tight and low scoring, a

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Speaker 2: boring game, and we're gonna take the under forty one

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Speaker 2: and a half. If you are looking to up your

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Speaker 2: game in sports betting, join our exclusive sports betting discord

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Speaker 2: community at bettingpros dot com slash Chat. Not only can

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Speaker 2: you connect with expert handicappers who provide free picks for

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Speaker 2: the NBA, NFL, MLB, college sports player props, live betting,

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Speaker 2: and more, but now you can also participate in our

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Speaker 2: weekly community picks. Cast your vote, see how your pick

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Speaker 2: stack up against the experts, and track your success.

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Speaker 1: Let's go to the props. We're gonna start with touchdowns.

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Speaker 1: I'm just gonna hit.

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Speaker 2: This one again, Ashton Jint Boise State running back, first

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Speaker 2: touchdown in the game. It's plus one fifty. I really

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Speaker 2: like this. I'm just gonna take another shot at it.

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Speaker 2: Homie has twenty seven touchdowns this year, right, so I

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Speaker 2: think he can absolutely do this. So it's against Oregon State.

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Speaker 2: He just you know, it's difficult, you know, real quick

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Speaker 2: in this game. But it's the only time you can

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Speaker 2: get jainting in a touchdown at plus money. It's plus

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Speaker 2: one fifty, and that's why I like it. I only

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Speaker 2: have one other touchdown prop. We're gonna go to the

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Speaker 2: South Carolina game and go to Lenora Seller's the South

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Speaker 2: Carolina quarterback plus one thirty fives five rushing touchdowns this year.

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Speaker 2: He has at least thirteen carries in nine of eleven

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Speaker 2: games so far this season. So he is a threat

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Speaker 2: to run in and get a score near the goal line.

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Speaker 2: So I think Clemson is going to concentrate on stopping

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Speaker 2: Raheem Sanders at the goal line. I don't know that

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Speaker 2: they'll be successful and stopping him at all. We'll get

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Speaker 2: to that in a minute, but I think Sellers can

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Speaker 2: easily score one. He is a running quarterback for sure.

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Speaker 1: Let's go to the passing props. I'm going to go

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Speaker 1: back to the Egg Bowl.

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Speaker 2: I just think this three hundred and a half yards

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Speaker 2: against Mississippi State is too low. He's hit this in

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Speaker 2: seven games this season, four of six home games. They're

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Speaker 2: at home, and Georgia and Kentucky are the only two

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Speaker 2: teams that he missed this in that home schedule. Mississippi

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Speaker 2: State is one hundred and thirteenth inets the pass. They

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Speaker 2: only have eight sacks this year. They don't put pressure

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Speaker 2: on the quarterback. Now again in a rivalry game, maybe

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Speaker 2: that changes. Maybe we see a little bit more of

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Speaker 2: an inspired defense playing for Mississippi State.

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Speaker 1: I don't think it matters.

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Speaker 2: I think Jackson Dark is going to pass for this

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Speaker 2: total in any situation. Missippi State one hundred and twenty

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Speaker 2: second and ten plus yards plum ten plus yard.

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Speaker 1: Passing plays allowed this season. So they're just not a

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Speaker 1: very good defense.

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Speaker 2: The offense keeps him in games, you know, they can

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Speaker 2: slow it down a little bit, but the defense is

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Speaker 2: really bad. It's what made has made them bad this

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Speaker 2: entire season. All Right, We're gonna go to Max Brosman,

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Speaker 2: the quarterback from Minnesota, and I'm gonna tell you before

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Speaker 2: I give you this prop.

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Speaker 1: Check the weather. Right.

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Speaker 2: I got screwed over by that month Soon that they

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Speaker 2: had in San Jose State with my Nick Nash pick

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Speaker 2: last week because they said rain in same month soon

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Speaker 2: and then there was a huge monsoon at the end

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Speaker 2: of that game.

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Speaker 1: It was kind of crazy.

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Speaker 2: But Max Brosmer, the total is two hundred two and

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Speaker 2: a half yards at Wisconsin. Again, check the weather. But

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Speaker 2: Wisconsin has played well against the pass, but not against

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Speaker 2: good passing teams. The teams that they've held the under

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Speaker 2: this total of two hundred and a half yards are

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Speaker 2: below one hundred passing offenses like Northwestern Rutgers per Due,

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Speaker 2: Western Michigan.

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Speaker 1: Those are the teams.

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Speaker 2: The every other team that they played has gone over

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Speaker 2: two hundred and two and a half passing yards, and

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Speaker 2: Max Brozman himself has passed this in six of element

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Speaker 2: games three of his last four. Minnesota is a top

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Speaker 2: twenty five passing percentage in their offense at fifty four

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Speaker 2: point three percent and only sixteen sacks on the season

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Speaker 2: for Wisconsin is very strange for a usually good defensive team.

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Speaker 2: That's one hundred and fifteenth in the nation, so they're

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Speaker 2: not really putting pressure on the quarterback as well, which

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Speaker 2: is good for Max Brosmer, and he has two legit

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Speaker 2: offensive tackles that could go in the NFL draft.

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Speaker 1: So I think just with good.

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Speaker 2: Protection and time to throw, Brozemer is going to pass

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Speaker 2: this one pretty easy, as long as the weather cooperates. Again,

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Speaker 2: let's check that weather. Let's make sure we don't get

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Speaker 2: screwed by that Kyle McCord, the Syracuse quarterback. We're going

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Speaker 2: to go over one and a half passing touchdowns versus Miami.

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Speaker 2: I don't typically like touchdown calls four quarterbacks because it's just,

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Speaker 2: you know, you get down to the one, they can

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Speaker 2: hand it to leaquent Allen and go but they're gonna

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Speaker 2: have to score to keep pace with Miami in this game.

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Speaker 2: He has hit this in nine of eleven games this year.

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Speaker 2: Pitt and Cal are the only teams that held him

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Speaker 2: below two touchdowns. Syracuse is second in passing this season.

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Speaker 2: And I know for those of you that saw the

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Speaker 2: Pit game in saw Kyle McCord and a lot of

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Speaker 2: Ohio State fans don't think he's good either. He's okay.

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Speaker 2: I'm not gonna sit here until you he's great. I

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Speaker 2: think he could be. My buddy c K keeps getting

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Speaker 2: on me about this. Dude could be a top one

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Speaker 2: hundred and one hundred and fifty pick in the NFL

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Speaker 2: draft because quarterback is weak. We'll see there. But since

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Speaker 2: that Pit disaster where he threw three pick sixes, he's

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Speaker 2: been pretty good. He had twenty four of thirty five

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Speaker 2: two hundred and eighty yards and two touchdowns for Spaw

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Speaker 2: Tech three hundred eighty two yards and two touchdowns against

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Speaker 2: Boston College three hundred twenty three yards, only one touchdown

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Speaker 2: in that Cow game, but four seventy to three versus

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Speaker 2: Yukon last weeks, so we have seen Cole McCord kind

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Speaker 2: of been peaking recently. So we're gonna go ahead and

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Speaker 2: go over one and a half passing touchdowns versus the

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Speaker 2: Hurricanes who have just let team score. I've got two

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Speaker 2: rushing props for you, and then the three receiving the

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Speaker 2: two rushing props. We're gonna go back to the Paul

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Speaker 2: Meto Bowl and go Raheem Sanders, South Carolina running back

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Speaker 2: over seventy three and a half rushing yards. He s

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Speaker 2: hit this in six of eleven games, three of his

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Speaker 2: last four, and Clemson is just fifty fifth against the rush.

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Speaker 2: They're allowing one hundred and thirty nine point four yards

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Speaker 2: per game. Now, Sellers is going to be part of

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Speaker 2: those yards as well. We already talked about him potentially

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Speaker 2: scoring a touchdown. But look at some of these lead backs, man,

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Speaker 2: I mean Isaac Brown twenty carries one hundred and fifty

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Speaker 2: one yards in a score, Michael Ford for stand for

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Speaker 2: fifteen for one to twenty two, Kendrick Rafael for NC

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Speaker 2: State ten for eighty four, seven for eighty for Anderson

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Speaker 2: Castle from MAP State. Nate Frasier in that opening week

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Speaker 2: had eleven carries for eighty three yards. Wake Forest running

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Speaker 2: back Demon Claiborne and Stitadel running back Garrison Johnson are

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Speaker 2: the only two guys that have had fifteen touches at

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Speaker 2: fifteen carries and not pass this rushing total. Sanders has

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Speaker 2: had fifteen plus carries in five straight games, so I

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Speaker 2: think this one is.

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Speaker 1: Very, very doable.

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Speaker 2: I'm going to go to my Texas boy, khen Travian Weisner,

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Speaker 2: the Texas running back, over seventy five and a half

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Speaker 2: the rushing yards against Texas A and M. He's hit

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Speaker 2: this in four games this season and four of the

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Speaker 2: last six He's had ten plus carries.

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Speaker 1: Last week, he had twenty six.

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Speaker 2: Carries for one hundred and fifty eight yards in a

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Speaker 2: touchdown against Kentucky. Dark Weis Hunter for Auburn. Last week

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Speaker 2: against Texas A and M, had twenty eight carries for

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Speaker 2: one hundred and thirty yards and three touchdowns.

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Speaker 1: I just I think he's going to get.

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Speaker 2: A decent amount of carries because Quinn Ewers is playing

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Speaker 2: at less than one hundred percent as well. The offensive

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Speaker 2: line is one of the best in the country for

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Speaker 2: Texas as well, so I think seventy five and a

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Speaker 2: half is just too low a.

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Speaker 1: Number go over on that one. The three receiving props.

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Speaker 2: Actually it's really four receiving props because I have two

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Speaker 2: for Jeremiah Smith here seventy six and a half receiving

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Speaker 2: yards and we're gonna go over thirty and a half

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Speaker 2: as his longest reception versus Michigan. He's hit the yard

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Speaker 2: is in seven and eleven games and also hit the

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Speaker 2: longest in seven to eleven games. Michigan seventy second in

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Speaker 2: passing yards allowed, so not very good for a strong

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Speaker 2: Michigan defense. They're just not the same team that they

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Speaker 2: were last year. Michigan has allowed thirty plus completions to

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Speaker 2: have thirty plus long completions to everyone but Michigan State.

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Speaker 2: Two guys had thirty, but nobody had over thirty at Illinois,

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Speaker 2: Arkansas State, and Fresno State. So I think Jeremiah Smith,

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Speaker 2: as long as he gets like four catches in this game,

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Speaker 2: one of these is going to be a long one

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Speaker 2: and the total is just seventy six and a half

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Speaker 2: is way too low. If he gets one big catch,

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Speaker 2: he's going over that for sure. Cam Coleman, the Auburn

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Speaker 2: wide receiver against Bamball, we're gonna go over forty seven

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Speaker 2: and a half and this is just a true freshman

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Speaker 2: getting way more involved. Recently, He's had nine targets in

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Speaker 2: each of the last two games he led the target.

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Speaker 2: He led the Tigers and targets in both those games

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Speaker 2: against A and M last week nine targets, seven catches,

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Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty eight yards and two scores nine

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Speaker 2: for eight on one hundred with three scores versus ULM.

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Speaker 2: He's sixteenth of two hundred and forty four wide receivers

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Speaker 2: with at least forty five targets in the country in

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Speaker 2: a DOT sixteen point four yards per target, So if

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Speaker 2: he gets three catches in this game, he's going over

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Speaker 2: this total. So with nine targets per game and just

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Speaker 2: him getting more involved in Peyton Thorne really working with him,

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Speaker 2: and the weakness of the defense we saw it against Fandy,

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Speaker 2: being this Alabama secondary, i think he could easily get that.

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Speaker 2: And I'm going to go with one of my favorites,

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Speaker 2: l amain Or the Stanford wide receiver over sixty two

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Speaker 2: and a half receiving yards at San Jose State, He's

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Speaker 2: passed this in five games, three of the last four.

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Speaker 2: Ten h State is eighty ninth in passing yards allowed.

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Speaker 2: They grade fifty eighth in coverage, but they're only one

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Speaker 2: hundred and fifth in pass rush. And let's just take

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Speaker 2: a look at this season and number one wide receivers

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Speaker 2: against San Jose State Ricky White last week for the

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Speaker 2: MLV seven for ninety eight, Boise State, Cam Camper six

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Speaker 2: for ninety two, Trent Walker for Oregon State, eleven for

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Speaker 2: one fifty one, Mac Dealena John, Michael Gillenberg, Tory Hunter,

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Speaker 2: and Amari Winfield, Cortes Bram for Nevada and Jaden Smith

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Speaker 2: went over this. Three guys for Washington State went over this,

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Speaker 2: and Sacramento State, their FCS opponent, Anderson Grover went over

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Speaker 2: He had sixty four yards. So sixty two and a

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Speaker 2: half is just way too low of a number, especially

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Speaker 2: for the way that Stanford's.

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Speaker 1: Offense has been playing recently.

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Speaker 2: So that is it for me. Remember you can follow

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Speaker 2: me on the Twitter app bog and the sports. We'll

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Speaker 2: be back for some conference championship picks and props for

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Speaker 2: you as well, So I will see you guys. Then

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Speaker 2: enjoy your Thanksgiving, take it easy, everybody.

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Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

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