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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Appocarplay and then Rounoo with the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Tuesday edition. Feels like a Monday here

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Speaker 2: on the fastest show in politics on Bloomberg Radio, on

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Speaker 2: the satellite and on YouTube. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington.

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Speaker 2: After six weeks and twenty two witnesses, here, we are

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Speaker 2: the moment many have been waiting for. In Lower Manhattan,

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Speaker 2: closing arguments are now underway in Donald Trump's criminal trial.

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Speaker 2: Each of the thirty four if you're playing along in

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Speaker 2: your home game, felony falsification of business records charges that

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Speaker 2: he is facing brings a sentence of up to four

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Speaker 2: years in prison and a five thousand dollars fine. Of course,

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Speaker 2: the President has pleaded not guilty and is still learning

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Speaker 2: about the process here, which is amazing to me for

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Speaker 2: someone who has been so heavily litigated over the course

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Speaker 2: of his career. Donald Trump takes to truth Social last

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Speaker 2: night and writes in all caps, why is the corrupt

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Speaker 2: government allowed to make the final argument in the case

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Speaker 2: against me? Why can't the defense go last? Big advantage?

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Speaker 2: Very unfair? Which hunt exclamation point. That is the way

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Speaker 2: it works here. Just ask Eric Larson. He does this

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Speaker 2: for a living Bloomberg Legal reporter has been in the

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Speaker 2: courtroom for the duration of this trial, and I'm glad

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Speaker 2: to say is with us now from world headquarters in

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Speaker 2: New York. Eric, That is the way it goes, right,

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Speaker 2: if you are trying to carry the burden of proof

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Speaker 2: the prosecution, Donald Trump knows that.

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Speaker 3: Yes, I'm pretty sure that was It's just standard. But

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Speaker 3: as we've seen, mister Trump has complained about a lot

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Speaker 3: of things during the trial that are just sort of

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Speaker 3: standard procedures or things that were sort of the result

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Speaker 3: of his own defense teams doing so, you know, it's

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Speaker 3: a little bit of a distraction, perhaps from what's really

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Speaker 3: going on here, because actually, after the prosecution gives it

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Speaker 3: its closing arguments, you know they're going to the juries

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Speaker 3: were already going to have heard from several hours of

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Speaker 3: the defense here. So it's not as though they're not

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Speaker 3: getting an opportunity to say everything they want to say.

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Speaker 2: Fair enough, yes, not a coin toss. Though, to be clear, Eric,

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Speaker 2: what are we going to witness here over the next

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Speaker 2: day we're hearing closing arguments might in fact go into

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Speaker 2: tomorrow as we watch the summation of this case. What

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Speaker 2: do you have your focus on?

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Speaker 3: Well, the judge said last week that he anticipated the

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Speaker 3: closing statements or arguments would go all day today and

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Speaker 3: potentially bleed into Wednesday, although it's also possible that if

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Speaker 3: they keep on track, they could wrap up today, especially

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Speaker 3: be because the judge has told the jury that they

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Speaker 3: have the opportunity to stay later than four thirty pm

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Speaker 3: today if they wish, that's the usual closing time for

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Speaker 3: the trial, and just to try to move things along.

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Speaker 3: They do have to get their official instructions from the

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Speaker 3: judge as well, So either way, I would imagine that

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Speaker 3: deliberations would be going on for most of the day tomorrow.

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Speaker 2: You're one of the few Americans, Eric Larson, who has

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Speaker 2: actually seen this jury, having been in the courtroom for

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Speaker 2: the balance of the trial. Some are making the case

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Speaker 2: that this could be a very quick turn here because

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Speaker 2: they've been steeped in this case for so long, and

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Speaker 2: for many it's cut and dry. But we've also had

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Speaker 2: a lot of legal experts tell us to never try

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Speaker 2: to predict a jury, that this is when the wild

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Speaker 2: cards could come. What are the options, what are the

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Speaker 2: outcomes potentially that you're looking for here?

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Speaker 3: Well, you know, anyone's guess what is going on with

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Speaker 3: this jury. Both sides are making their cases very strongly.

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Speaker 3: Obviously the government has the burden of proof here, and

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Speaker 3: all that the defense needs is for one of those

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Speaker 3: jurors to have a reasonable doubt and then you end

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Speaker 3: up with a hung jury and a mistrial. So we're

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Speaker 3: prepared for any of those outcomes. And as you noted,

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Speaker 3: this is an unprecedented case, but we could get a

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Speaker 3: verdict pretty quick. I mean I've spoken with experts who

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Speaker 3: say that if, for example, the jury is buying this

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Speaker 3: case and they decide to convict, that that could happen,

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Speaker 3: you know, even within one day of deliberations, And if

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Speaker 3: it goes on potentially longer than a few days, then

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Speaker 3: perhaps the case is in a little bit more trouble.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Uh, fascinating to think where we would be at that point.

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Speaker 2: CBS News is reporting eric a New York Corrections sources

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Speaker 2: the Secret Service has met with local jail officials to

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Speaker 2: talk about possible outcomes. Now, I will say that every

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Speaker 2: analyst who's ever come on this show says, don't even

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Speaker 2: dream of Donald Trump is not going to jail no

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Speaker 2: matter what happens.

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Speaker 1: In this case.

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Speaker 2: But the fact that they have to have this conversation

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Speaker 2: shorter sentences I read can be served at Rikers, which

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Speaker 2: has two wings that are typically used for high profile

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Speaker 2: or infamous inmates. Is the Secret Service prepared to have

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Speaker 2: officers in a jail cell if necessary.

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Speaker 3: I would imagine that that is something they discussed quite

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Speaker 3: some time ago, because you'll recall that Judge Murshawn has

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Speaker 3: threatened to jail Trump even before the trial was over

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Speaker 3: for violating repeatedly violating a gag order barring Trump from

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Speaker 3: publicly commenting about witnesses and and the jury. So clearly

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Speaker 3: there must have been some discussions going on a while ago,

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Speaker 3: because the judge at any time could have ordered Trump

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Speaker 3: to go to jail for that alone. But I'm sure

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Speaker 3: that that is something that the Secret Service would have

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Speaker 3: be obligated to be discussing.

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Speaker 2: Fascinating. It's really great to have you back, Eric. We've

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Speaker 2: missed you because I locked in court. We can't always

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Speaker 2: get our hands on Eric Larson, but today we have

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg's legal reporter in New York. Great to see you, sir.

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Speaker 2: Thank you for the update. This is going to happen

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Speaker 2: this week. It's looking like it's coming here this week,

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Speaker 2: and when the news breaks from the courthouse in Lower Manhattan,

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Speaker 2: you will hear it first here on Bloomberg Radio, be

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Speaker 2: with us on the radio, on the satellite, or on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: As I say, because this is going to be a

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Speaker 2: big one and will be offering you the best legal

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Speaker 2: and political analysis that you're going to find anywhere on

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Speaker 2: this program. As we turn to our other major story today,

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Speaker 2: and that is the fallout from the Israeli airstrike on

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Speaker 2: a tent camp in Rafa. The international condemnation has been

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Speaker 2: heard loudly since Sunday, with witnesses describing a truly horrific

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Speaker 2: scene and a lot of questions about how this could

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Speaker 2: have happened. As we read on the terminal, Trying to

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Speaker 2: put this together here has been very difficult, as the

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Speaker 2: IDF says that the attack was based on precise intelligence.

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Speaker 2: That is a quote. It killed two senior officials from Hamas,

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Speaker 2: which was of course, the point of this here French

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Speaker 2: President Emmanuel Macrone outraged, the White House heartbreaking, the IDF investigating.

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Speaker 2: Mick mulroy is back with us on Bloomberg. I'm glad

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Speaker 2: to say he's co founder of the Lobo Institute, former

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Speaker 2: US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East,

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Speaker 2: and is now personally involved in trying to deliver humanitarian

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Speaker 2: aid to those who need it in Gaza. Mick, it's

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Speaker 2: great to have you back your thoughts when you saw

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Speaker 2: these images. Forty five civilians killed. At what point do

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Speaker 2: we reach Joe Biden's red line in Rafa?

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Speaker 4: So, Joe, of course, anytime civilians are killed in conflict,

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Speaker 4: it is not a good thing. And I think what's

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Speaker 4: really got people concerned here is the IDF has relocated

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Speaker 4: civilians to try to avoid this and then apparently struck

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Speaker 4: in the area of which they were relocated. Too clear,

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Speaker 4: I think from the IDF's statement that the actual casualties

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Speaker 4: were caused by the munitions that they used to kill

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Speaker 4: the two ABSST militants, or as their statement indicates, it

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Speaker 4: might have been collateral and then secondary explosion that cause

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Speaker 4: the fire. I don't know, but obviously a lot of concern,

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Speaker 4: considering the whole point was to move them to a

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Speaker 4: location that was out of harm's way, and then there

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Speaker 4: was a strike in the vicinity.

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Speaker 2: I'm glad you mentioned that the IDF says it cannot

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Speaker 2: explain the fires that followed the strikes that they again

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Speaker 2: claim were precise. Is it on the IDF Is it

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Speaker 2: on the Israeli military to know the difference? If there's

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Speaker 2: say a depot of some sort next to a target,

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Speaker 2: you're still putting civilians at risk.

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Speaker 4: That's right. When it comes to these type of assessments,

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Speaker 4: you have to have a military necessity. If they were

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Speaker 4: correct and they were going after a Moss leadership, that

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Speaker 4: is a military necessity and a valid military target. But

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Speaker 4: then there's proportionality. So that's where I think the US

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Speaker 4: government has had issues with the IDEF. Is the proportionality.

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Speaker 4: If you use a large diama or bomb in an

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Speaker 4: urban area, for example, you yes, likely kill the two militants,

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Speaker 4: but you also might flatten the buildings that are around it,

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Speaker 4: killing civilians. That of course would be out of proportion.

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Speaker 4: So I don't know the details here and whether they

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Speaker 4: did an accurate assessment of the potential collateral facilities like

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Speaker 4: ammunition depot or field depot or something that could have

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Speaker 4: caused his fire. But that is all something that's taken

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Speaker 4: into account when they look at whether there was proportionality

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Speaker 4: and their decision to take destray.

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Speaker 2: Well, Joe Biden's red line was in reference to an

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Speaker 2: invasion of Rafa many weeks ago when he said that,

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Speaker 2: and we've seen this very sort of incremental approach here,

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Speaker 2: some would say limited approach. But after this story that

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Speaker 2: we're talking about forty five dead, clearly airstrikes that are

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Speaker 2: taking place. We also read Israeli tanks have reached the

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Speaker 2: center of Rafa, a sign that they could be nearing

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Speaker 2: the goal of taking full control of the city. So

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Speaker 2: if not, now, when is the full invasion of Rafa?

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Speaker 2: Aren't we seeing it?

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Speaker 4: Well, we very well could be. So tanks are used

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Speaker 4: in urban combat, and there is an armored division as

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Speaker 4: well as a airborne division that was a raid to

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Speaker 4: be able to do this offensive. A tank indicates to me,

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Speaker 4: quite frankly, if they're going with a full option. A

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Speaker 4: limited would be more special operations, reconnaissance driven. But when

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Speaker 4: you have tanks inside cities, that indicates that it's a full,

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Speaker 4: full invasion. Is that exactly That is exactly what the

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Speaker 4: Biden administration did not want to see. So it looks

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Speaker 4: like that's the case. Of course, we have to see

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Speaker 4: more information on how this fully plays out.

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Speaker 2: I'd like to ask you your thoughts on the temporary

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Speaker 2: peer as I see images of the peer apparently having

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Speaker 2: trouble staying afloat. This was put in place to the

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Speaker 2: tune of many millions of dollars and a lot of blood,

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Speaker 2: sweat and tiers by the United States military to deliver

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Speaker 2: aid to Gaza, trying to get around some of the

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Speaker 2: more obvious crossings that have been blocked. It hasn't been

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Speaker 2: delivering nearly the aid that was expected. And I see

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump's campaign manager tweeting a picture of this bridge

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Speaker 2: starting to sinc calling it the Biden peer to nowhere.

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Speaker 2: As this takes on political connotations, Mick, was this flawed

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Speaker 2: in its concept to begin with?

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Speaker 4: Well, first of all, I got to point out just

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Speaker 4: the herculean effort that the US Military Central Command, and

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Speaker 4: particularly the Army component of that is who is responsible

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Speaker 4: for this system, this Jaylot system, It is essential if

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Speaker 4: it can be utilized by the humanitarian community. So The

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Speaker 4: issue right now is to bring in a lot of

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Speaker 4: AID disciples and get the barges running to the jaylots.

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Speaker 4: It is significantly challenged in the weather conditions and the

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Speaker 4: servicemen and women that are responsible for it and are

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Speaker 4: doing everything we can to keep it up and running.

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Speaker 4: But I do think if it is up and running

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Speaker 4: and aid starts flowing, it is absolutely essential because aid

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Speaker 4: is not coming in through say they're offa crossing right now,

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Speaker 4: which is right in the middle of this offensive bin Rafa,

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Speaker 4: and it's not coming in in anywhere near the quantities

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Speaker 4: needed for this spelling and population in Gaza. So it's

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Speaker 4: certainly not perfect, and nothing in a conflict or especially

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Speaker 4: a maritime conflict environment is, but I do think it

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Speaker 4: is essential, and the more AID it starts flowing over,

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Speaker 4: I think it'll show its value, especially to the people

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Speaker 4: who are on the verge of a famine in northern Gaza.

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Speaker 2: Well, Nick, I know that you are among a group

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Speaker 2: of specialized people who are trying to come up with

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Speaker 2: alternative solutions here, and there's probably a lot that you

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Speaker 2: can't talk about right now, But how do you see

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Speaker 2: this playing out. We've tried air drops, we've built an

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Speaker 2: entire pier here that may not be working. We're dealing

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Speaker 2: with border crossings that are closed when trucks showed up,

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Speaker 2: and of course Hamas willing to attack AID trucks and

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Speaker 2: steal food when they do get through. What other option.

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Speaker 4: Do we have, right, Joe, I really do think that

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Speaker 4: the argument or the answer is not one or the other.

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Speaker 4: It is all the above. There's about seven ground crossings

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Speaker 4: into Gaza. It would be good if all of those

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Speaker 4: were open. There's political issues in Israel, there's families of

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Speaker 4: the hostages that block these, but they also need a

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Speaker 4: maritime option. I mean, it's a twenty five mile long

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Speaker 4: territory that has a twenty five mile long coastline. They

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Speaker 4: would want to have a maritime option and that can

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Speaker 4: bring in aid at scale. Air drops, although they can

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Speaker 4: be used for specific cases, simply can't bring enough to

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Speaker 4: make that much of an effort or that much of

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Speaker 4: a difference. I do think the ground and maritime taken together,

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Speaker 4: can not only decompress the situation when it came to

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Speaker 4: fan Him, but potentially help in the rebuilding of Gaza

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Speaker 4: when this ceasefire eventually does happen and the end of

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Speaker 4: hostilities happens. That has to happen because right now eighty

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Speaker 4: five percent of the dwellings in Gaza are uninhabitable. So

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Speaker 4: this is something that I think is needed for the

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Speaker 4: near and long term.

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Speaker 2: Israeli defense forces. Say two militants, as I mentioned, were

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Speaker 2: killed in this attack in Rafa. How many are left?

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Speaker 2: What is left of Hamas in Rafa? Do we have

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Speaker 2: an understanding?

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Speaker 4: It's difficult, Joe to get a handle on that. The

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Speaker 4: IDEAF said they have essentially dismantled or significantly degraded twenty

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Speaker 4: of the twenty four battalions if you will, with the

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Speaker 4: four remaining being in Rafa, which is why they believed

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Speaker 4: they needed militarily to have to have this objective. It's

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Speaker 4: unclear of how many were killed. I've seen estimates between

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Speaker 4: ten and fifteen thousand. It was estimated to be around

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Speaker 4: thirty thousand. But it's also critical for the IDF perspective

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Speaker 4: to destroy the tunnel systems, which is very significant, and

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Speaker 4: of course the advanced munitions, the rockets and such that

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Speaker 4: they can use to really threaten Israel. And so I

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Speaker 4: think there's a multi prom objective here when it comes

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Speaker 4: to military they will not end Tamas the philosophy. Obviously,

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Speaker 4: a terrorist organization is potentially could even increase in size,

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Speaker 4: but they need to destroy the tunnels, they need to

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Speaker 4: capture and kill the leadership, and they need to significantly

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Speaker 4: destroy the munitions they can use to threaten Israel.

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Speaker 2: Well, Nick, when you start to get aid flowing, we'd

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Speaker 2: love to talk to you about how you figured this

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Speaker 2: out in this ongoing effort. Mick mulroy, co founder of

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Speaker 2: the Lobo Institute, thank you for helping us get started.

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Speaker 2: Here on the fastest show in politics from Washington to

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Speaker 2: New York and to Israel. This is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken

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Speaker 1: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on applecar Play and

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Speaker 1: then roud Otto the Bloomberg Business Ad. You can also

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Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York

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Speaker 1: station Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: As we ponder the question after what we saw over

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Speaker 2: the weekend, was it campaign malpractice to send the former

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Speaker 2: president of the United States into a room full of

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Speaker 2: libertarians only to be booed and heckled publicly at length?

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Speaker 2: On Saturday? Did you see this this is at the

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Speaker 2: Washington Hilton. Over the weekend, the Libertarian Convention enter Donald Trump.

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Speaker 5: Let's watch at its national convention on Saturday, the Libertarian

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Speaker 5: Party should nominate Trump for President of the United States.

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Speaker 2: WHOA there you go? Spared you a good chunk of that.

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Speaker 2: This went on forever. The heckling extended, booing to the

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Speaker 2: point where Trump's asking, what the hell do you guys

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Speaker 2: run for anyway? If you want just three percent? I

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Speaker 2: don't know what he was doing there. He was followed

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Speaker 2: by RFK Junior, who had a very deliberate message for

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Speaker 2: libertarians who love him. Let's assemble our panel. Genie Shanzana

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Speaker 2: was with US Bloomberg Politics, contributor, of course, democratic analyst

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Speaker 2: and now senior Democracy Fellow with the Center for the

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Speaker 2: Study of the Presidency in Congress. It's just joined by

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Speaker 2: Lisa Camuso Miller, Republican strategist, former communications director at the

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Speaker 2: Republican National Committee, host of the Friday Reporter podcast. Ginny

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Speaker 2: and Lisa.

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Speaker 6: Welcome.

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Speaker 2: Lisa. I'll start with you. I know you're not running

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Speaker 2: the Donald Trump campaign, but they did that on purpose.

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Speaker 2: What did they get for it?

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Speaker 4: You know?

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Speaker 7: Joe, I think I mean it's hard to really sort

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Speaker 7: of get into the mind of what and why. But

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Speaker 7: he still has to appeal to some of those that

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Speaker 7: are in the room in that space, right, And so

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Speaker 7: room really represents sort of the Republican yes, of course libertarian,

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Speaker 7: but those of us that sort of live in a

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Speaker 7: the former Republican party, right. So there's a lot of

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Speaker 7: my colleagues and friends that I work with that live

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Speaker 7: there today. And so if you're on the campaign, you're

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Speaker 7: seeing that as an opportunity perhaps to appeal to some

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Speaker 7: of those who are hardened against you and perhaps going

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Speaker 7: to sit it out or even pull the lever for

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Speaker 7: the Democratic candidate. But that's a tough crowd and it's

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Speaker 7: really unfortunately, Joe, it's inside the Beltway, and it's an organist,

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Speaker 7: it's an organization. They probably wasn't going to support Trump anyway.

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Speaker 7: So I'm not sure it's going to have very much impact.

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Speaker 7: Certainly it must have hurt the ego of the former

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Speaker 7: president if nothing else.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, why put them through it? Because you know Lisa's right, Geanie.

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Speaker 2: Does anyone in the world know that the Libertarian Convention's

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Speaker 2: taking place? Well now they do when they look at

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Speaker 2: their Twitter scroll and they see Donald Trump being disrespected

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Speaker 2: for quite a length of time at the podium. What

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Speaker 2: was the strategy here, Well.

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Speaker 8: This is the third biggest political party in the country.

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Speaker 8: They're on thirty seven, thirty eight ballots, so it's a

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Speaker 8: big get. You know, when you talk about where the

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Speaker 8: campaign miss stepped, I would suggest, if you put your

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Speaker 8: candidate in there and ask them to nominate you, you

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Speaker 8: should have done the.

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Speaker 6: Paperwork to get that nomination.

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Speaker 8: And of course the next day we find out that, oh,

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Speaker 8: by the way, despite asking, the campaign just didn't do

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Speaker 8: the paperwork, and he winds up with like two writ

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Speaker 8: in votes or something, you know, just slightly worse than

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Speaker 8: RFK Junior. So you know, it was a bad step

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Speaker 8: by the campaign. I do think his overall instinct, or

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Speaker 8: the campaign's instinct to go and try to spread this

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Speaker 8: map is a good instinct. In this case, it seemed

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Speaker 8: to have backfired. And I just loved him gaslighting them

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Speaker 8: right back when they booed and heckled, he said, oh,

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Speaker 8: you want to just repeat your three percent you get

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Speaker 8: every four years, right, basically pumped off the stage in

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Speaker 8: thirty minutes where they'll usually go ninety.

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Speaker 6: So I enjoyed it.

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Speaker 1: Well good.

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Speaker 2: You know, we know a genie was watching on Saturday

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Speaker 2: night one, a Memorial Day weekend. But you know RFK

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Speaker 2: Junior showed up as well. He was there the next

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Speaker 2: night and says, this is interesting. I want to hear

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Speaker 2: from both of you on this potential wrinkle of pocket

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Speaker 2: of real weakness for Donald Trump. So Lisa's point, these

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Speaker 2: are in many cases conservatives in that room. R FK

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Speaker 2: Junior says, Trump presided over the greatest restriction of individual

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Speaker 2: liberties this country has ever known. This is why they

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Speaker 2: were yelling at him, saying, you took our freedoms away. Quote.

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Speaker 2: He did not stand up for the Constitution when it

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Speaker 2: really mattered. Pointing to COVID, Now here's the line of

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Speaker 2: the weekend. Maybe a brain worm made that part of

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Speaker 2: my memory. RFK said, but I don't recall any part

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Speaker 2: of the Constitution that creates an exemption for pandemics. Is

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Speaker 2: this a problem for Donald Trump or is he such

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Speaker 2: an extreme alternative to Joe Biden in a general election? Lisa,

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Speaker 2: that COVID does not come up.

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Speaker 7: Joe, he lost me at earworm or brainworm or whatever

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Speaker 7: that is that he talks about. Take your break, you know,

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Speaker 7: I don't necessarily think that this. I think it's he's

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Speaker 7: a spoiler, and I think that he probably takes votes

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Speaker 7: away from Joe Biden for those who aren't for Trump

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Speaker 7: but don't necessarily feel good about the way the White

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Speaker 7: House has been leading on the economy and foreign affairs issues.

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Speaker 7: So that alone, I think just represents a threat that's

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Speaker 7: not a Donald Trump threat as much as it's a

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Speaker 7: threat to the sitting president in my opinion.

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Speaker 2: Well, that's a great point, Jeanie, your thought on that.

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Speaker 2: It's not like Joe Biden can criticize Donald Trump about

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Speaker 2: COVID restrictions.

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Speaker 8: No, nor would he want to. And you know, I

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Speaker 8: think the fact that we see, you know, Donald Trump

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Speaker 8: and his campaign going after OURFK shows that they they

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Speaker 8: feel and of course the evidence is sort of all

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Speaker 8: over the map on this that they may be the losers.

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Speaker 6: And you know, we can't forget that in an election that.

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Speaker 8: Is at least the polls tell us as tight as

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Speaker 8: this is, a few thousand votes matter, and so you know,

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Speaker 8: just ask George Bush in nineteen ninety two, or just

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Speaker 8: ask Hillary Clinton in twenty sixteen, or Al Gore in

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Speaker 8: two thousand. They all feel that their election was taken

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Speaker 8: from them by a few thousand votes from a third

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Speaker 8: party candidate with no hope of winning. So, you know,

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Speaker 8: Donald Trump has that fear. I think Joe Biden to

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Speaker 8: a certain extent, although they're feeling a little better on

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Speaker 8: that point. So this is a challenge with RFK in

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Speaker 8: there if he's able to get these votes. And you

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Speaker 8: know the fact that, you know, the one thing that

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Speaker 8: Donald Trump did, not the only thing, but one important

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Speaker 8: thing he did was pushing so hard to get us

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Speaker 8: to get some kind of vaccination from COVID, and he

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Speaker 8: did it, and he has run away from it throughout

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Speaker 8: this election for the very reason you were just talking about.

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Speaker 8: It's absolutely maddening. I don't see how that brings back

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Speaker 8: the voters. Lisa was talking about the Republicans who are

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Speaker 8: Republicans of the past, if you will, They too got

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Speaker 8: the vaccine, thankfully that he put into practice. So you know,

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Speaker 8: I'm not sure how this helps Donald Trump or quite frankly,

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Speaker 8: AREFK Junior. But it's a big deal in this Libertarian party.

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Speaker 2: Well, it worked better than the Bleach, We'll say that, Lisa.

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Speaker 2: I don't know to what extent Joe Biden's going to

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Speaker 2: be answering questions about his response to COVID here, but

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Speaker 2: if you ask him, it's a point of pride, right,

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Speaker 2: this is not something that's going to be driving voters.

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Speaker 2: It's going to be inflation, it's going to be the border,

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Speaker 2: it's going to be abortion and so many of the

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Speaker 2: other social issues that we're talking about here. It's also

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Speaker 2: going to be foreign policy. And I'm by this tweet

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Speaker 2: that we saw from Donald Trump's campaign manager. I mentioned

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Speaker 2: it once earlier this hour. Chris Lszavita tweets a picture

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Speaker 2: of the temporary peer in Gaza, which is half underwater.

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Speaker 2: In this photograph, quote the Biden peer to nowhere, unquote

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Speaker 2: symbolic of a campaign that we're reading about this morning, Genie.

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Speaker 2: Democrats are having nightmares. All of a sudden, there's this

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Speaker 2: realization that, hey, we're in trouble. To what extent, Lisa,

435
00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:37,640
Speaker 2: is Chris Lasavita's tweet appropriate at this stage of the campaign,

436
00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:39,160
Speaker 2: or maybe I should say accurate.

437
00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:44,400
Speaker 7: You know this we're like in the silly season, right,

438
00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:48,240
Speaker 7: always all the time, Joe. But I think it's indicative

439
00:24:48,359 --> 00:24:52,040
Speaker 7: of how the papers and the stories everything today is

440
00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:55,160
Speaker 7: reading is that This is going to continue to be.

441
00:24:55,359 --> 00:24:58,440
Speaker 7: This conflict that's happening in the Middle East is going

442
00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:01,320
Speaker 7: to be continued to be the biggest challenge for Joe

443
00:25:01,320 --> 00:25:05,600
Speaker 7: Biden between now and November, and it overshadows every other thing.

444
00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:09,919
Speaker 7: It overshadows any successes he has in the economy, in

445
00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:15,600
Speaker 7: the beatback for inflation, just about everything, because this continues

446
00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:18,600
Speaker 7: to hang over his head. As someone who, by the way,

447
00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:20,800
Speaker 7: was the chair of the Foreign Relations Committee right when

448
00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:23,240
Speaker 7: he was in the Senate, he's someone who really sees

449
00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:26,800
Speaker 7: this as his legacy, and the fact that he warned

450
00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:30,560
Speaker 7: Benjamin Netanyahu about going into Rafa, the fact that he

451
00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:33,199
Speaker 7: and the UN and everyone else has warned that this

452
00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:36,840
Speaker 7: not happened. While I think it's probably off color for

453
00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:39,600
Speaker 7: Lasavita to be saying that in the morning after terrible,

454
00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:43,080
Speaker 7: terrible losses in Gaza, I also think too that he

455
00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:46,760
Speaker 7: probably sees this as the biggest challenge for the Biden campaign.

456
00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:50,520
Speaker 2: What do you think about this, Genie? I want to

457
00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:54,000
Speaker 2: give you a chance to reply, because the story in

458
00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:56,800
Speaker 2: Israel is getting worse now that we're certainly we're talking

459
00:25:56,840 --> 00:26:00,840
Speaker 2: about a very difficult weekend here in Israel and a

460
00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:03,199
Speaker 2: solution in the form of this peer that does not

461
00:26:03,359 --> 00:26:08,680
Speaker 2: appear to be working. I realize that this could change,

462
00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:13,080
Speaker 2: but we've got tanks, Israeli tanks in the center of Rafa,

463
00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:17,000
Speaker 2: and Joe Biden talking about red lines that don't seem

464
00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:17,920
Speaker 2: to exist.

465
00:26:19,480 --> 00:26:23,800
Speaker 8: You know, I think, Chris Lasovito, it's absolutely shameful.

466
00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:25,399
Speaker 6: And I agree with Lisa.

467
00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:28,680
Speaker 8: The morning after, or hours if you will, after, we

468
00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:33,520
Speaker 8: see forty five innocent people killed babies. The pictures coming

469
00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:37,600
Speaker 8: out of there are absolutely horrific. And you send over

470
00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:41,880
Speaker 8: a picture of a bridge that our government and our

471
00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:46,360
Speaker 8: military folks on Memorial Day weekend, by the way, they

472
00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:49,240
Speaker 8: have put in hours of blood, sweat and tears to

473
00:26:49,359 --> 00:26:51,600
Speaker 8: get that up and running. And it may not be

474
00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:53,399
Speaker 8: at the point where we all want it to be

475
00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:56,920
Speaker 8: at this point, but the goal is admirable. The work

476
00:26:56,960 --> 00:26:59,399
Speaker 8: has been hard, and it has been for something I

477
00:26:59,440 --> 00:27:02,679
Speaker 8: would think all Americans, regardless of your political party or

478
00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:05,320
Speaker 8: candidate of choice in the twenty four election, would be

479
00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:09,399
Speaker 8: supportive of which is getting aid into civilian populations that

480
00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:13,560
Speaker 8: desperately need it. To make fun of that bridge to nowhere.

481
00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:16,600
Speaker 6: Blah blah blah. It's shameful, you know.

482
00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:19,639
Speaker 8: Joe Biden, as President of the United States doesn't have

483
00:27:19,720 --> 00:27:22,480
Speaker 8: the luxury of sitting back like Donald Trump does as

484
00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:26,800
Speaker 8: a former president in office, He's got to have make decisions.

485
00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:29,000
Speaker 8: He drew a red line that's going to come back

486
00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:31,320
Speaker 8: to be something he's going to have to address, and

487
00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:33,600
Speaker 8: we will see where he goes with that once we

488
00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:36,480
Speaker 8: have more information on what happened. But I thought the

489
00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:40,960
Speaker 8: tweet or whatever las Vita sent out was shameful. This

490
00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:43,240
Speaker 8: is the work of our military, this is the work

491
00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:45,919
Speaker 8: of our government, and you would think they would be

492
00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:48,640
Speaker 8: patriotic enough on Memorial Days to support that.

493
00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:53,680
Speaker 2: Well, I'll tell you what Donald Trump's Memorial Day tweet

494
00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:57,480
Speaker 2: or truth I guess it was, Lisa, would make you

495
00:27:57,560 --> 00:28:01,280
Speaker 2: wonder about his thoughts on theh He did not mention

496
00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:05,560
Speaker 2: Americans who served the country or who have died for

497
00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:09,440
Speaker 2: the country. He wrote a message to the quote unquote

498
00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:14,919
Speaker 2: scumbags who have opposed him politically and legally. Is the

499
00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:16,399
Speaker 2: nation ready for four more of that?

500
00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:19,280
Speaker 5: I don't know, Joe.

501
00:28:19,320 --> 00:28:22,359
Speaker 7: I mean, look, I'm a kid of a family that

502
00:28:22,400 --> 00:28:25,159
Speaker 7: has served right and they considered from now until the

503
00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:27,919
Speaker 7: end of time, will consider the former president of draft Dodger.

504
00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:29,919
Speaker 7: They do not have a lot of respect for him

505
00:28:29,960 --> 00:28:32,760
Speaker 7: and the way he treats or talks about our armed services.

506
00:28:33,080 --> 00:28:34,959
Speaker 7: They do not like the fact that he says what

507
00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:40,240
Speaker 7: he says. This is the head of all armed services,

508
00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:42,600
Speaker 7: This is the top of the top, and this is

509
00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:45,760
Speaker 7: the way he talks about. Are those who go into

510
00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:50,000
Speaker 7: these places and keep us safe here at home? Are

511
00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:52,400
Speaker 7: we ready for it? No, Joe, we are definitely not.

512
00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:55,000
Speaker 7: Does it look like we're headed that way? It absolutely does.

513
00:28:55,480 --> 00:28:58,440
Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, I guess to an extent, it's been normalized.

514
00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:02,320
Speaker 2: Just to be clear, I said, scumbag. It's quote happy

515
00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:05,360
Speaker 2: memorial data all including the human scum that is working

516
00:29:05,400 --> 00:29:08,040
Speaker 2: so hard to destroy our once great country and of

517
00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:10,520
Speaker 2: the radical left, Trump hating federal judge in New York

518
00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:13,840
Speaker 2: that presided over. I could go on, but there's not

519
00:29:14,000 --> 00:29:17,520
Speaker 2: enough time or enough caps. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington.

520
00:29:17,560 --> 00:29:18,360
Speaker 2: Glad you're with us.

521
00:29:20,880 --> 00:29:24,400
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

522
00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:28,080
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and Enrounoo

523
00:29:28,200 --> 00:29:31,239
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you

524
00:29:31,280 --> 00:29:36,480
Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

525
00:29:37,400 --> 00:29:40,280
Speaker 2: Bring our attention to Lower Manhattan. Of course, that is

526
00:29:40,840 --> 00:29:44,320
Speaker 2: the trial, the criminal trial of Donald Trump. Today, closing

527
00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:48,000
Speaker 2: arguments are now officially underway, and this could be a

528
00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:51,080
Speaker 2: pivotal week here in the trial. It is expected that

529
00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:54,840
Speaker 2: this case will go to the jury, likely Wednesday or Thursday,

530
00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:57,560
Speaker 2: and then of course it's off to deliberations, and we'll

531
00:29:57,560 --> 00:30:01,640
Speaker 2: see what happens with that. Many are addicting a short

532
00:30:01,720 --> 00:30:05,240
Speaker 2: turn in deliberations here, we'll see what Robert Makewerder thinks

533
00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:08,520
Speaker 2: a reliable voice for us and understanding each phase of

534
00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:11,320
Speaker 2: this trial, he's back with us now, Criminal and Constitutional

535
00:30:11,400 --> 00:30:14,760
Speaker 2: law attorney Robert the idea is here, and we heard

536
00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:17,320
Speaker 2: it from the judge. Closing arguments may well last into

537
00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:21,120
Speaker 2: tomorrow after the last many weeks. Why take so long

538
00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:22,880
Speaker 2: to sum up the case?

539
00:30:24,880 --> 00:30:27,280
Speaker 5: I think that the defense is just looking for things

540
00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:30,800
Speaker 5: to say. I don't know why it would take so long.

541
00:30:32,160 --> 00:30:35,320
Speaker 5: It's not it is somewhat of a complicated case. But

542
00:30:35,440 --> 00:30:38,440
Speaker 5: you know, the prosecution can lay out exactly what went

543
00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:40,760
Speaker 5: on here. You don't have to go into a great, big,

544
00:30:40,840 --> 00:30:44,360
Speaker 5: huge dissertation on things. And I'm not sure how much

545
00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:46,760
Speaker 5: the defense is going to say. They're going to meticulously

546
00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:49,480
Speaker 5: try to attack everybody. Spend a lot of time on

547
00:30:49,560 --> 00:30:53,760
Speaker 5: Michael Cohen, a lot of time on Ms Daniels, But

548
00:30:54,360 --> 00:30:55,920
Speaker 5: I don't know that they're going to get to the

549
00:30:56,040 --> 00:31:00,440
Speaker 5: essential issue. You know, one thing that the defense is

550
00:31:00,560 --> 00:31:04,640
Speaker 5: never adequately explained here is nor did they deny, is

551
00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:06,680
Speaker 5: that there was a one hundred and thirty thousand dollars

552
00:31:06,760 --> 00:31:12,000
Speaker 5: payment made to miss Daniels. They don't really have an explanation.

553
00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:14,880
Speaker 5: They say, well, Donald Trump didn't sleep with her, and

554
00:31:15,000 --> 00:31:18,200
Speaker 5: somehow she was extorting him. But then are they really

555
00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:20,800
Speaker 5: saying that Donald Trump is the kind of man who

556
00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:24,440
Speaker 5: would pay off an extortionist. I don't think so. They

557
00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:27,800
Speaker 5: don't have a good explanation, and I think that the

558
00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:30,440
Speaker 5: argument that maybe Michael Cohen did this out of the

559
00:31:30,440 --> 00:31:33,160
Speaker 5: goodness of his heart to help Stormy Daniels just doesn't

560
00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:33,720
Speaker 5: go anywhere.

561
00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:37,400
Speaker 2: Donald Trump seems to be learning a little bit more

562
00:31:37,400 --> 00:31:40,040
Speaker 2: about the process today. Robert. Maybe if he'd hired you,

563
00:31:41,120 --> 00:31:43,960
Speaker 2: he would have known the way this works with closing arguments.

564
00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:44,680
Speaker 1: Quote.

565
00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:47,200
Speaker 2: This is a post on social media. Why is the

566
00:31:47,200 --> 00:31:49,880
Speaker 2: corrupt government allowed to make the final argument in the

567
00:31:49,920 --> 00:31:52,920
Speaker 2: case against me? Why can't the defense go last? He

568
00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:57,400
Speaker 2: writes a big advantage, very unfair, which hunt exclamation point, Robert,

569
00:31:57,440 --> 00:31:59,600
Speaker 2: this is the way it works. It's supposed to work

570
00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:02,320
Speaker 2: this week. Correct, when you carry the burden of proof.

571
00:32:03,160 --> 00:32:05,680
Speaker 5: The government has the burden of proof. That's why the

572
00:32:05,760 --> 00:32:09,320
Speaker 5: law gives them the last shot. There is a rare situation.

573
00:32:09,400 --> 00:32:11,520
Speaker 5: If the government was to come up with something totally

574
00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:13,600
Speaker 5: new in their last shot, you can get what's called

575
00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:17,480
Speaker 5: sir rebuttal. But it's very very very rare, and the

576
00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:19,920
Speaker 5: government would have to really do something. And I don't

577
00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:24,240
Speaker 5: see the state prosecutors doing this. The state prosecutors have

578
00:32:24,440 --> 00:32:27,520
Speaker 5: kind of given us a master class in how to

579
00:32:27,560 --> 00:32:33,320
Speaker 5: structure good prosecution. It structured well. Their cross examinations were excellent,

580
00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:38,240
Speaker 5: they present the presentations of the witnesses were appropriately sequenced

581
00:32:38,280 --> 00:32:41,680
Speaker 5: and timed. So I don't see them making any kind

582
00:32:41,680 --> 00:32:44,880
Speaker 5: of blender like that. And mister Trump, can you know

583
00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:47,360
Speaker 5: if you notice mister Trump spends a lot of time

584
00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:50,960
Speaker 5: complaining about procedures because he doesn't really want to talk

585
00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:51,760
Speaker 5: about the facts.

586
00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:56,600
Speaker 2: Well, we will note that he has pleaded not guilty

587
00:32:56,600 --> 00:33:00,000
Speaker 2: in this case. But after six weeks and twenty two witnesses,

588
00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:03,520
Speaker 2: is Robert, what is this jury about to go through

589
00:33:03,720 --> 00:33:05,800
Speaker 2: And why does everyone seem to think that this will

590
00:33:05,840 --> 00:33:08,920
Speaker 2: be a brief deliberation.

591
00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:12,960
Speaker 5: Because what the jury is going to do is of

592
00:33:12,960 --> 00:33:15,120
Speaker 5: course they're going to be going to the room. I

593
00:33:15,160 --> 00:33:18,680
Speaker 5: would guess that if closing arguments end today, which they could,

594
00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:23,640
Speaker 5: the case will be over before Friday. If closing arguments

595
00:33:23,720 --> 00:33:27,440
Speaker 5: don't end until Thursday, then it might extend it to

596
00:33:27,600 --> 00:33:30,880
Speaker 5: the weekend and they'll come back. My prediction is this

597
00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:34,000
Speaker 5: case will be over before Friday, and they're going to

598
00:33:34,040 --> 00:33:38,440
Speaker 5: have to deliberate. I think that the deliberation will be

599
00:33:38,520 --> 00:33:43,080
Speaker 5: somewhat short because the quality of the defense is not

600
00:33:43,240 --> 00:33:46,760
Speaker 5: very high. I think mister Trump had some good lawyers,

601
00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:49,680
Speaker 5: but he was calling the shots here. And I think

602
00:33:49,760 --> 00:33:53,000
Speaker 5: mister Trump is far more interested in what's going on

603
00:33:53,160 --> 00:33:56,000
Speaker 5: outside of the courtroom than he is what's going on

604
00:33:56,200 --> 00:34:01,600
Speaker 5: inside of the courtroom. Everything is designed for his political messaging.

605
00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:05,760
Speaker 5: And look, I'll give you one example. He complains that

606
00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:07,640
Speaker 5: he can't you know, has to be in this trial

607
00:34:07,680 --> 00:34:10,000
Speaker 5: and he can't go on campaign. Well, if he goes

608
00:34:10,040 --> 00:34:13,680
Speaker 5: out to campaign in the Bronx, he talked to maybe

609
00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:16,880
Speaker 5: eight thousand people at that rally. His staff claimed it

610
00:34:17,000 --> 00:34:19,799
Speaker 5: was twenty five thousand, but the police now it was

611
00:34:19,840 --> 00:34:22,920
Speaker 5: only eight thousand. Well, okay, so he can't go do that.

612
00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:25,600
Speaker 5: But you do realize that every day after trial he

613
00:34:25,640 --> 00:34:28,319
Speaker 5: gets to go talk to many million because it gets

614
00:34:28,400 --> 00:34:31,080
Speaker 5: free media time. When he makes a statement after every

615
00:34:31,160 --> 00:34:36,560
Speaker 5: day's course of proceedings, you know, that's free media coverage

616
00:34:36,560 --> 00:34:40,120
Speaker 5: that reaches millions versus a rally that might reach a

617
00:34:40,120 --> 00:34:44,280
Speaker 5: few thousand. So he's really designed this to his favors,

618
00:34:44,320 --> 00:34:47,240
Speaker 5: and he's prepared everybody for his argument after he loses.

619
00:34:47,960 --> 00:34:50,400
Speaker 5: He's not running around saying this is a great fair jury.

620
00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:53,360
Speaker 5: In fact, if they end up acquitting, he's going to

621
00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:56,080
Speaker 5: be in a kind of a strange situation of turning

622
00:34:56,120 --> 00:34:58,359
Speaker 5: around and say, well, I guess everything really was fair.

623
00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:03,160
Speaker 5: So I just don't think that the defense has much

624
00:35:03,200 --> 00:35:05,759
Speaker 5: quality here in terms of what they're saying. They can't

625
00:35:05,760 --> 00:35:09,759
Speaker 5: explain certain key issues like why did Stormy Daniels get

626
00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:11,200
Speaker 5: paid one hundred and three thousand dollars.

627
00:35:12,440 --> 00:35:15,040
Speaker 2: Well, it sounds like you're bracing for a conviction on

628
00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:19,759
Speaker 2: at least some of these thirty four charges here. CBS

629
00:35:19,800 --> 00:35:22,680
Speaker 2: News is reporting that the Secret Service has in fact

630
00:35:22,760 --> 00:35:27,839
Speaker 2: met with New York Corrections officials to discuss the possibility

631
00:35:27,840 --> 00:35:30,319
Speaker 2: of incarceration. Robert, I don't know if that's something that

632
00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:33,160
Speaker 2: you're allowing for. If there's a couple of days in

633
00:35:33,200 --> 00:35:36,960
Speaker 2: a room somewhere, but obviously Donald Trump wouldn't be alone

634
00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:40,680
Speaker 2: in that room. He would require Secret Service protection no

635
00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:43,480
Speaker 2: matter where he went. Does this sound like a formality

636
00:35:43,520 --> 00:35:45,360
Speaker 2: to you or a potential reality?

637
00:35:46,360 --> 00:35:46,520
Speaker 8: Oh?

638
00:35:46,560 --> 00:35:48,920
Speaker 5: I think these are smart agents who figure out they

639
00:35:48,920 --> 00:35:52,040
Speaker 5: have to plan for every contingency. It is a very

640
00:35:52,080 --> 00:35:55,839
Speaker 5: real possibility that Donald Trump will get convicted, and so

641
00:35:55,880 --> 00:36:00,000
Speaker 5: they have to plan for that eventuality a defendant, immediately

642
00:36:00,000 --> 00:36:03,399
Speaker 5: he would go into the custody Well, let's be clear,

643
00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:06,840
Speaker 5: if he receives jail time on this, he will go

644
00:36:06,920 --> 00:36:11,239
Speaker 5: into custody of the New York Department of Corrections. When

645
00:36:11,320 --> 00:36:15,400
Speaker 5: that happens is a little open. It probably wouldn't happen

646
00:36:15,480 --> 00:36:18,200
Speaker 5: right after conviction, but there is a possibility of that

647
00:36:18,200 --> 00:36:21,520
Speaker 5: the judge could decide to do that. In all likelihood,

648
00:36:21,560 --> 00:36:23,320
Speaker 5: you're going to have about a month or so before

649
00:36:23,320 --> 00:36:27,200
Speaker 5: a sentencing hearing, and then Donald Trump will requested he

650
00:36:27,280 --> 00:36:30,640
Speaker 5: be allowed to be released pending his appeal. So it's

651
00:36:30,680 --> 00:36:34,200
Speaker 5: going to be several months before that eventuality would happen

652
00:36:35,400 --> 00:36:37,279
Speaker 5: and he actually would be put in jail, and the

653
00:36:37,360 --> 00:36:40,719
Speaker 5: judge for a first time offense may decide not to

654
00:36:40,719 --> 00:36:46,359
Speaker 5: give him jail time. However, given mister Trump's behavior, if

655
00:36:46,400 --> 00:36:48,880
Speaker 5: mister Trump wasn't mister Trump, he would most surely be

656
00:36:48,880 --> 00:36:51,760
Speaker 5: looking at jail time for his behavior and the ways

657
00:36:51,760 --> 00:36:52,920
Speaker 5: conducted himself during the.

658
00:36:52,920 --> 00:36:56,400
Speaker 2: Trump Well, it is interesting that he apparently violated the

659
00:36:56,400 --> 00:37:00,400
Speaker 2: gag order a couple of times since the weekend. But

660
00:37:00,480 --> 00:37:02,920
Speaker 2: we're beyond gag orders at this point. With this trial

661
00:37:03,280 --> 00:37:06,200
Speaker 2: about to resolve, I've got less than a minute here, Robert.

662
00:37:06,280 --> 00:37:09,799
Speaker 2: Does the impact of celebrity move this jury or are

663
00:37:09,800 --> 00:37:12,000
Speaker 2: we beyond that when it's a former president?

664
00:37:12,920 --> 00:37:16,160
Speaker 5: Well, we don't know. We don't know how this affects

665
00:37:16,200 --> 00:37:20,480
Speaker 5: the jury. In high celebrity cases, I think defendants get

666
00:37:20,480 --> 00:37:23,160
Speaker 5: an extra kind of benefit. I mean, just look at

667
00:37:23,160 --> 00:37:26,960
Speaker 5: OJ Simpson's case, for instance, he gets a greater benefit.

668
00:37:28,160 --> 00:37:32,440
Speaker 5: If there is a rabid Trump supporter on this jury,

669
00:37:32,480 --> 00:37:34,600
Speaker 5: they could gum up the entire thing. If there's one

670
00:37:34,680 --> 00:37:37,279
Speaker 5: or two, that means there could be a hung jury. Now,

671
00:37:37,360 --> 00:37:40,360
Speaker 5: if a juror decides not to deliberate at all, the

672
00:37:40,440 --> 00:37:42,960
Speaker 5: other jurors can tell the judge and that jury jury

673
00:37:43,040 --> 00:37:46,600
Speaker 5: can be replaced. But if it's somebody who just is

674
00:37:46,640 --> 00:37:49,040
Speaker 5: going to gum the whole things up, well then you

675
00:37:49,080 --> 00:37:51,640
Speaker 5: could have a mistrial here and this trial could be

676
00:37:51,760 --> 00:37:53,080
Speaker 5: race scheduled to be tried again.

677
00:37:54,480 --> 00:37:56,920
Speaker 2: Well, you're the first person we'll call. Robert mcwurd or

678
00:37:56,920 --> 00:38:00,200
Speaker 2: a criminal constitutional law attorney. Thank you, Robert for being

679
00:38:00,239 --> 00:38:02,359
Speaker 2: with us. I suspect we may be talking again this week.

680
00:38:02,360 --> 00:38:03,400
Speaker 2: I hope that is the case.

681
00:38:04,600 --> 00:38:07,880
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken

682
00:38:08,080 --> 00:38:11,120
Speaker 1: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

683
00:38:11,200 --> 00:38:13,800
Speaker 1: roun Oto with a Bloomberg business app. You can also

684
00:38:13,840 --> 00:38:17,360
Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

685
00:38:17,719 --> 00:38:20,359
Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven.

686
00:38:20,200 --> 00:38:26,040
Speaker 2: Thirty and some interesting storylines coming out of the weekend here,

687
00:38:26,239 --> 00:38:28,399
Speaker 2: very few of them good for Joe Biden. Even as

688
00:38:28,440 --> 00:38:30,920
Speaker 2: we talk this day about closing arguments in the criminal

689
00:38:30,960 --> 00:38:35,000
Speaker 2: trial of Donald Trump, the headlines from Israel are very

690
00:38:35,040 --> 00:38:39,200
Speaker 2: problematic for a president who is already watching progressive Democrats

691
00:38:39,400 --> 00:38:44,520
Speaker 2: reconsider their support based on Israel policy. When you consider

692
00:38:44,719 --> 00:38:47,000
Speaker 2: the polling now the approval numbers. Some of the polls

693
00:38:47,000 --> 00:38:49,359
Speaker 2: we saw on Friday from the Cook Political Report from

694
00:38:49,400 --> 00:38:53,279
Speaker 2: Emerson painting a picture that is very consistent with Bloomberg

695
00:38:53,400 --> 00:38:58,520
Speaker 2: polling that shows the president potentially losing this race, at

696
00:38:58,640 --> 00:39:01,840
Speaker 2: least in the swing state. So everyone wakes up to

697
00:39:01,920 --> 00:39:06,439
Speaker 2: Politico this morning and the playbook full blown freak out

698
00:39:06,480 --> 00:39:09,359
Speaker 2: is the headline. And we thought boy Cliff Young might

699
00:39:09,400 --> 00:39:11,560
Speaker 2: have something to say about that, because he's actually doing

700
00:39:11,640 --> 00:39:14,040
Speaker 2: his own research at IPSOS and a great voice on

701
00:39:14,080 --> 00:39:16,200
Speaker 2: the campaign for us here at Bloomberg. He's with us

702
00:39:16,200 --> 00:39:18,440
Speaker 2: at the table. Now, how are things. You had a

703
00:39:18,480 --> 00:39:21,200
Speaker 2: long weekend, The lawmakers are gone, You can park where

704
00:39:21,239 --> 00:39:22,360
Speaker 2: you want in Washington.

705
00:39:22,920 --> 00:39:23,280
Speaker 1: What else?

706
00:39:23,320 --> 00:39:24,080
Speaker 9: It's a great day.

707
00:39:24,200 --> 00:39:25,080
Speaker 1: It is a great day.

708
00:39:25,120 --> 00:39:28,359
Speaker 2: Thank you for coming in. You're attempting to answer this

709
00:39:28,520 --> 00:39:32,839
Speaker 2: great question that is kind of a flip to are

710
00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:35,239
Speaker 2: you better off now than you were four years ago?

711
00:39:35,360 --> 00:39:41,239
Speaker 2: You're asking what is the greatest problem facing America? And

712
00:39:41,320 --> 00:39:44,000
Speaker 2: I guess we shouldn't be too surprised by what you

713
00:39:44,120 --> 00:39:46,960
Speaker 2: found because we talk about it here on Bloomberg every day.

714
00:39:47,400 --> 00:39:51,160
Speaker 9: Yeah, it's the economy, and more specifically it's inflation and

715
00:39:51,200 --> 00:39:56,320
Speaker 9: more problematic for the Biden camp is at their core constituencies,

716
00:39:56,719 --> 00:40:01,759
Speaker 9: Younger Americans, Hispanic Americans, black Americans, affluent Americans all are

717
00:40:01,800 --> 00:40:06,600
Speaker 9: affected by inflation. Now, it's not rates. People don't understand

718
00:40:06,640 --> 00:40:09,719
Speaker 9: rates inflation rates. It's about price levels and ability to

719
00:40:09,760 --> 00:40:13,480
Speaker 9: make ends meet. And there's a lingering effect of this,

720
00:40:13,800 --> 00:40:16,680
Speaker 9: and this is problematic for the Biden campaign.

721
00:40:16,680 --> 00:40:18,960
Speaker 2: Although a young perspective homeowner might be able to talk

722
00:40:18,960 --> 00:40:21,440
Speaker 2: to you about rates, or somebody who owes money on

723
00:40:21,480 --> 00:40:24,600
Speaker 2: a car, right, there aren't ways in which interest rates

724
00:40:24,640 --> 00:40:27,680
Speaker 2: are biting us in a literal way. But you go

725
00:40:27,760 --> 00:40:29,760
Speaker 2: back to Joe Biden a couple of weeks ago predicting

726
00:40:29,760 --> 00:40:32,840
Speaker 2: that interest rate cut, and boy was he projecting, wasn't he.

727
00:40:33,360 --> 00:40:35,520
Speaker 9: Yeah, he really wanted things to be better. They know

728
00:40:35,640 --> 00:40:38,760
Speaker 9: their problem, right, But once again, if you were paying

729
00:40:39,000 --> 00:40:42,560
Speaker 9: two years ago one hundred and fifty for basic food

730
00:40:42,560 --> 00:40:46,359
Speaker 9: stuffs and today you're paying one hundred and seventy, that's

731
00:40:46,400 --> 00:40:49,120
Speaker 9: twenty dollars more that you're paying, and that's twenty dollars

732
00:40:49,120 --> 00:40:52,080
Speaker 9: more that you don't have. And I think that there's

733
00:40:52,120 --> 00:40:56,680
Speaker 9: been a lot of tone deafness among the Democrats, among

734
00:40:56,680 --> 00:41:00,680
Speaker 9: elites understanding how the average person the average American goes

735
00:41:00,680 --> 00:41:02,919
Speaker 9: about their day to day, and their day to day

736
00:41:03,000 --> 00:41:05,200
Speaker 9: is counting nickels and dimes.

737
00:41:05,200 --> 00:41:08,480
Speaker 2: That's right. And it's not just the trajectory of inflation.

738
00:41:08,560 --> 00:41:11,080
Speaker 2: It's where prices are now versus where they were then.

739
00:41:11,200 --> 00:41:11,319
Speaker 1: Right.

740
00:41:11,360 --> 00:41:14,960
Speaker 2: We talk about slowing inflation as if this is a

741
00:41:15,000 --> 00:41:17,479
Speaker 2: great thing, but it just means that prices are going

742
00:41:17,560 --> 00:41:19,719
Speaker 2: up still but at a slower rate.

743
00:41:19,960 --> 00:41:22,959
Speaker 9: Slower Yeah, but there's still not a win. Yeah, that's

744
00:41:22,960 --> 00:41:25,759
Speaker 9: not a win. That's not a win. And the experience

745
00:41:25,920 --> 00:41:29,320
Speaker 9: is that you need time, you need wages to increase

746
00:41:29,360 --> 00:41:31,440
Speaker 9: at the same rate, if not at a greater rate.

747
00:41:32,280 --> 00:41:34,439
Speaker 9: And it's not about the overall average. We're not talking

748
00:41:34,440 --> 00:41:37,680
Speaker 9: about the United States. We're talking about individuals in these

749
00:41:37,719 --> 00:41:40,000
Speaker 9: key demographics as well as in the key swings days.

750
00:41:40,080 --> 00:41:42,360
Speaker 2: So that's number one, and that did not surprise us.

751
00:41:42,400 --> 00:41:44,759
Speaker 2: So number two did surprise me, and I'd love your

752
00:41:44,760 --> 00:41:47,479
Speaker 2: thoughts on this. By the way, the economy at twenty

753
00:41:47,520 --> 00:41:50,680
Speaker 2: three percent most important problem facing America. Number two is

754
00:41:50,719 --> 00:41:53,879
Speaker 2: political extremism, and if you're with us on Bloomberg TV,

755
00:41:53,960 --> 00:41:56,640
Speaker 2: you can see it was right behind the economy at

756
00:41:56,680 --> 00:42:00,239
Speaker 2: twenty one percent. This is something shared by both sides.

757
00:42:00,719 --> 00:42:03,960
Speaker 9: Yeah, So on the democratic side, it's threats to democracy

758
00:42:04,600 --> 00:42:07,880
Speaker 9: and who's a threat Donald Trump. It's a way to

759
00:42:08,200 --> 00:42:12,000
Speaker 9: mobilize the anti Trump vote. And on the other side

760
00:42:12,840 --> 00:42:16,800
Speaker 9: is what are issues of polical streamism and problems with

761
00:42:16,840 --> 00:42:19,880
Speaker 9: the democracy. It's a broken system, and who's going to

762
00:42:19,920 --> 00:42:23,440
Speaker 9: fix the broken system? Donald Trump? And so in my mind,

763
00:42:23,480 --> 00:42:28,560
Speaker 9: looking forward, if the economy continues to improve, we should

764
00:42:28,640 --> 00:42:33,240
Speaker 9: see that as threats to democracy and polical streamism becoming

765
00:42:33,239 --> 00:42:36,000
Speaker 9: the number one issue. But today that's not the case.

766
00:42:36,200 --> 00:42:39,600
Speaker 9: Today it still is the commune inflation, and I would

767
00:42:39,600 --> 00:42:41,160
Speaker 9: say it's Biden's Achilles Hill.

768
00:42:41,160 --> 00:42:44,280
Speaker 2: You're surprised to see immigration at thirteen percent in some polling.

769
00:42:44,360 --> 00:42:47,240
Speaker 2: During the early States, it was the number one issue

770
00:42:47,239 --> 00:42:48,160
Speaker 2: for primary voters.

771
00:42:48,200 --> 00:42:51,040
Speaker 9: Yeah, it's a critical issue. It's a critical issue on

772
00:42:51,080 --> 00:42:54,600
Speaker 9: the borders. It's a critical issue among Republicans. It's what

773
00:42:55,160 --> 00:42:58,719
Speaker 9: Trump won on in twenty sixteen. And if you have

774
00:42:58,800 --> 00:43:01,839
Speaker 9: a black Swan event, some sort of mad rush at

775
00:43:01,840 --> 00:43:06,680
Speaker 9: the border, something that's really really symbolic and apparent, it

776
00:43:06,680 --> 00:43:09,160
Speaker 9: could swing things as well. It is a Republican issue,

777
00:43:09,200 --> 00:43:10,400
Speaker 9: it is a Trump issue.

778
00:43:11,719 --> 00:43:15,160
Speaker 2: The issue of Israel is something that's been dogging Joe Biden,

779
00:43:15,200 --> 00:43:18,920
Speaker 2: and I always hear that voters don't make decisions based

780
00:43:18,960 --> 00:43:22,520
Speaker 2: on geopolitics, but this one has been resonating on a

781
00:43:22,680 --> 00:43:24,160
Speaker 2: domestic level in a.

782
00:43:24,239 --> 00:43:25,040
Speaker 1: Very real way.

783
00:43:25,760 --> 00:43:28,400
Speaker 2: He's certainly worried about if the campaign has been directing

784
00:43:28,400 --> 00:43:31,640
Speaker 2: resources in a way that makes that clear specifically in Michigan,

785
00:43:32,080 --> 00:43:35,520
Speaker 2: but across the country. When it comes to progressives, this

786
00:43:36,800 --> 00:43:40,200
Speaker 2: strike in Rafa over the weekend, forty five more civilians

787
00:43:40,280 --> 00:43:43,640
Speaker 2: killed is bad news for the White House and for

788
00:43:43,719 --> 00:43:46,880
Speaker 2: the campaign. How is the issue playing on the trail?

789
00:43:47,480 --> 00:43:49,880
Speaker 9: He needs it to go away, and so it doesn't

790
00:43:49,880 --> 00:43:52,760
Speaker 9: help him on the margins. We saw the primary votes

791
00:43:52,960 --> 00:43:57,200
Speaker 9: in Michigan. That's problematic for Biden and for the Democrats.

792
00:43:57,560 --> 00:44:01,120
Speaker 9: But when push comes ashove, it's in flame over the

793
00:44:01,160 --> 00:44:05,560
Speaker 9: war in Gaza across all demographic groups. So yes, it's

794
00:44:05,600 --> 00:44:09,200
Speaker 9: an issue, but it's a issue specifically in specific places.

795
00:44:09,800 --> 00:44:13,680
Speaker 9: The real issue, once again is still inflation and the

796
00:44:13,719 --> 00:44:17,000
Speaker 9: inability of certain Americans in certain constituency groups to make

797
00:44:17,120 --> 00:44:17,520
Speaker 9: ends meet.

798
00:44:17,880 --> 00:44:22,040
Speaker 2: Spending time with Cliff Young from IPSOS and his great

799
00:44:22,080 --> 00:44:25,840
Speaker 2: polling in research that helps us find some interesting trends

800
00:44:25,920 --> 00:44:30,760
Speaker 2: here on the campaign trail, talk to me about approval ratings.

801
00:44:30,840 --> 00:44:32,880
Speaker 2: You can give us a little seminar on this with

802
00:44:33,000 --> 00:44:35,800
Speaker 2: Joe Biden at about forty percent, history tells us why.

803
00:44:35,640 --> 00:44:38,759
Speaker 9: Cliff, Yeah, So we have a database at episodes of

804
00:44:38,880 --> 00:44:42,120
Speaker 9: hundreds elections around the world. We call this our Salad

805
00:44:42,120 --> 00:44:45,480
Speaker 9: bold approach. We just kind of throw everything together and

806
00:44:45,760 --> 00:44:48,080
Speaker 9: mix it up a bit. But what does it tell us?

807
00:44:48,120 --> 00:44:52,080
Speaker 9: It tells us basically that a sitting president at forty

808
00:44:52,080 --> 00:44:54,759
Speaker 9: percent approval rating has better than a fifty to fifty

809
00:44:54,840 --> 00:44:57,360
Speaker 9: chance of winning the next election. To be very specific,

810
00:44:57,360 --> 00:44:59,600
Speaker 9: it's fifty five percent chance of winning the next election.

811
00:45:00,200 --> 00:45:02,840
Speaker 9: So we've been tracking over time and seeing where Biden's

812
00:45:02,840 --> 00:45:06,800
Speaker 9: approval ratings are, and they're right at that tipping point

813
00:45:07,200 --> 00:45:09,440
Speaker 9: depending on how you put it together, how you count it.

814
00:45:09,480 --> 00:45:11,080
Speaker 9: If you take all the average of all the polls

815
00:45:11,120 --> 00:45:14,239
Speaker 9: out there, it's about at thirty nine point five. It's

816
00:45:14,320 --> 00:45:16,360
Speaker 9: not a good place to be at this point.

817
00:45:16,080 --> 00:45:21,400
Speaker 2: For a water technically, though relatively speaking, he's seen way worse.

818
00:45:21,520 --> 00:45:23,439
Speaker 9: Yeah, Well, his head's like poking out of the water.

819
00:45:23,480 --> 00:45:25,719
Speaker 9: He's keeping yeah it than he's falling below.

820
00:45:25,840 --> 00:45:28,359
Speaker 2: What's it looked like in the curve over the course

821
00:45:28,400 --> 00:45:29,160
Speaker 2: of this term.

822
00:45:29,280 --> 00:45:32,399
Speaker 9: He has been. It's been basically a fluctuation around a mean,

823
00:45:32,520 --> 00:45:34,959
Speaker 9: which is an average, which is like they haven't moved

824
00:45:35,000 --> 00:45:36,839
Speaker 9: at all. He's been a little bit below, a little

825
00:45:36,880 --> 00:45:39,200
Speaker 9: bit above, a little bit below, a little bit above,

826
00:45:39,719 --> 00:45:42,759
Speaker 9: and that's where he's been. I had the expectation that

827
00:45:42,800 --> 00:45:45,920
Speaker 9: he would have improved by now, and that is not

828
00:45:46,000 --> 00:45:48,840
Speaker 9: the case. So he's in a difficult place when it

829
00:45:48,840 --> 00:45:49,600
Speaker 9: comes to that metric.

830
00:45:50,320 --> 00:45:53,560
Speaker 2: Getting back to the big freak out headline at Politico

831
00:45:53,600 --> 00:45:57,439
Speaker 2: this morning, is it time to freak out? We're told

832
00:45:57,480 --> 00:46:00,759
Speaker 2: frequently people don't pay attention to labor Day. He's got

833
00:46:00,800 --> 00:46:02,880
Speaker 2: a lot of money. He doesn't seem to have a

834
00:46:02,920 --> 00:46:06,160
Speaker 2: donor problem, although he did on a monthly basis fall

835
00:46:06,440 --> 00:46:08,840
Speaker 2: behind Donald Trump for the first time in this cycle

836
00:46:08,920 --> 00:46:12,239
Speaker 2: last month. When you look at the next six how

837
00:46:12,320 --> 00:46:15,600
Speaker 2: much bandwidth does this campaign have to turn it around?

838
00:46:15,719 --> 00:46:18,880
Speaker 9: Well, the campaign hasn't started, and so it hasn't started.

839
00:46:19,000 --> 00:46:23,800
Speaker 9: It really hasn't started. I mean the heavy lifting people

840
00:46:23,800 --> 00:46:26,759
Speaker 9: say it's too well, I think it's a little premature.

841
00:46:27,680 --> 00:46:30,040
Speaker 9: I think what we're coming to the market in general,

842
00:46:30,080 --> 00:46:32,440
Speaker 9: and I say I is coming to terms with is

843
00:46:32,440 --> 00:46:35,320
Speaker 9: that Donald Trump has a significant, non zero chance of winning.

844
00:46:35,680 --> 00:46:39,000
Speaker 9: We know that now when it comes to Biden camp,

845
00:46:39,040 --> 00:46:42,480
Speaker 9: he has a lot of has he has a lot

846
00:46:42,520 --> 00:46:46,080
Speaker 9: of weaknesses that one would expect that with an improving

847
00:46:46,120 --> 00:46:48,440
Speaker 9: economy that he'd be able to work out. But the

848
00:46:48,480 --> 00:46:52,440
Speaker 9: campaign hasn't started. He hasn't taken his case in a

849
00:46:52,480 --> 00:46:56,720
Speaker 9: coherent way to the people, to his constituency groups. And

850
00:46:56,760 --> 00:46:58,560
Speaker 9: we will see what happens once that happens.

851
00:46:58,600 --> 00:47:00,839
Speaker 2: Does it start with the first debate? Is that when

852
00:47:00,880 --> 00:47:01,680
Speaker 2: people tune.

853
00:47:01,480 --> 00:47:04,520
Speaker 9: In, Well, I think it's very telling that we're having

854
00:47:04,560 --> 00:47:08,040
Speaker 9: a first debate when we are Yeah, obviously the Biden

855
00:47:08,080 --> 00:47:10,279
Speaker 9: camp is submit not so they think they have to

856
00:47:10,280 --> 00:47:14,160
Speaker 9: make a statement. Yeah, And I think if not freaking out,

857
00:47:14,880 --> 00:47:17,120
Speaker 9: they are feeling the pressure and believe they have to

858
00:47:17,120 --> 00:47:19,360
Speaker 9: have a concrete proof point showing that he is in

859
00:47:19,400 --> 00:47:19,759
Speaker 9: the game.

860
00:47:20,000 --> 00:47:21,880
Speaker 2: Well, we're having a watch party that night. You should

861
00:47:21,880 --> 00:47:24,480
Speaker 2: come by. Okay, great to see Cliff Young always at

862
00:47:24,520 --> 00:47:27,800
Speaker 2: the desk here at Bloomberg with us from ipso's polling.

863
00:47:28,000 --> 00:47:29,960
Speaker 2: We always learned something when we talk to Cliff. He's

864
00:47:30,000 --> 00:47:32,360
Speaker 2: the president of US Public Affairs at IPSO.

865
00:47:32,440 --> 00:47:32,640
Speaker 1: SEM.

866
00:47:32,680 --> 00:47:35,120
Speaker 2: Great to have you with us, sir on balance of power.

867
00:47:40,400 --> 00:47:43,600
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make

868
00:47:43,640 --> 00:47:46,600
Speaker 2: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

869
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