Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news single best idea out
Speaker 1: on Apple podcasts, and trust me, not six minutes, not
Speaker 1: five minutes. This could be a thirty minute single best idea.
Speaker 1: I'm not going to flick that on you in August,
Speaker 1: but a set of incredible conversations today. Front center was
Speaker 1: our conversation on this merger of Kellogg's snack food division
Speaker 1: into the private company Mars. They make Mars bars and Snickers,
Speaker 1: I guess, and things like that. But we covered that
Speaker 1: very carefully and I think maybe that's a precursor of
Speaker 1: things to come. I'm really fascinated by to the end
Speaker 1: of the year what we see in terms of m
Speaker 1: and A really at all capitalization levels. First, on inflation,
Speaker 1: interesting report double earl it PPI before CPI. Thank you
Speaker 1: to Bob Sinchump in Connecticut for the observation that what
Speaker 1: was key here is PPI was out front of CPI.
Speaker 1: So maybe we didn't get the glory today, we got
Speaker 1: it yesterday. But there's a tinge of disinflation certainly within
Speaker 1: those two reports. Retail sales tomorrow on CPI want to
Speaker 1: watch some very interesting observations out on lagging shelter inflation.
Speaker 1: Neil Dotta of Renmac on the mortgage rate.
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, I certainly think that mortgage rates need
Speaker 2: to follow a lot more from here in order to
Speaker 2: juice the housing market, which means that the Fed has
Speaker 2: a little bit of work to do. You know, it's interesting,
Speaker 2: you're if you look at mortgage rates, I mean, they're
Speaker 2: basically running at the lowest level since I think last spring.
Speaker 2: But you haven't really seen home sales or purchased demand
Speaker 2: run at the best level since last spring. So why
Speaker 2: would that be? And that's because I think inflation has
Speaker 2: slowed more rapidly. So six and a half percent on
Speaker 2: to your fixed looks a lot better when inflation's four
Speaker 2: and a half percent then when it's two and so
Speaker 2: just a reminder that real rights are still quite elevated.
Speaker 1: Neil Dunna of Renmac there on inflation and again retail
Speaker 1: sales tomorrow. Retail sales is quoted before you take out inflation.
Speaker 1: What's called nominally and is Mike McKee does he take
Speaker 1: it out and adjust for inflation. He's sort of kind
Speaker 1: of like, but retail sales will be important tomorrow as
Speaker 1: we slide into an August. We can on the e
Speaker 1: CEO GO terminal screen. There are twenty lines of economic
Speaker 1: data tomorrow that gives you an idea of the import
Speaker 1: of it. I could do a one hour discussion, a
Speaker 1: monologue and bore you all to death over our conversation
Speaker 1: today with Stephen Rashudo of Miszuo Stevershudo is one of
Speaker 1: the most Prussian people in the game. He was absolutely
Speaker 1: spellbinding on the death of the study of knesy and economics,
Speaker 1: the Hicksian John Hicks ISLM model. Not going to go
Speaker 1: into the details on it, but basically, the LM curve
Speaker 1: of the X is the financial markets, and the IS
Speaker 1: curve of the X is the real economy markets, and
Speaker 1: we spend a lot of time talking about the real economy.
Speaker 1: The summation of it is, he looks for an imputed
Speaker 1: larger inflation in America. Is the IS curve shift to
Speaker 1: the right. Don't keep score at home on us, don't
Speaker 1: draw any maps in your car. But the answer is
Speaker 1: he looks for a nudge to a more persistent inflation
Speaker 1: in America. Pushing against that is a global disinflation. Where
Speaker 1: does it meet. It meets in the currency market. Stephen
Speaker 1: Rashudo of miszuo. The importance of the dollar.
Speaker 3: Watch the currency. The currency is critical here because it's
Speaker 3: a debate. It's a battle in the US be between
Speaker 3: domestic cyclical forces and global deflationary forces. And those global
Speaker 3: deflationary forces are real, they're palpable. I understand them. You
Speaker 3: don't have to go much beyond the just looking at
Speaker 3: the latest numbers news coming out of out of China
Speaker 3: and have to look at what's happening in terms of
Speaker 3: Europe and other parts around the world. Global deflation is real,
Speaker 3: but so is domestic cyclical inflation, and the currency has
Speaker 3: been the factor. D x Y, your Bloomberg measure on
Speaker 3: the currency, went from parody one hundred to one sixteen.
Speaker 3: We're now coming back. We're at one o two. I
Speaker 3: don't know what it is right now, but we broke
Speaker 3: through the one oh three level. We're heading towards one
Speaker 3: o two. Early day you get back to parody, and
Speaker 3: guess what the dollars no longer allowing global disinflation to
Speaker 3: be imported into the US economy.
Speaker 1: Steven Rashudo of MISSOUI there are d x Y quoted
Speaker 1: it one oh two. Issu ishu means, you know, take
Speaker 1: the decimal points into account and it has come down
Speaker 1: from one O four one o three, one oh two.
Speaker 1: The Bloomberg Dollar Index, which I call bb d x
Speaker 1: y Bloomberg get it. Bb DXY is twelve forty something
Speaker 1: and that's actually mathematically a much more interesting index. It
Speaker 1: it takes into account em and China and the rest.
Speaker 1: Were DXY is only the major traditional European trading partners
Speaker 1: with Japanese yen. As well as that that was too
Speaker 1: much for an August you know, that was just way
Speaker 1: too much. We need to exit. Let's exit with this
Speaker 1: android auto Apple car play. Thank you for the note
Speaker 1: out on Apple car Play today. I didn't know that
Speaker 1: when our guests come up, they come up on Apple CarPlay,
Speaker 1: which is very cool on YouTube. Thank you so much.
Speaker 1: Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts. I can't say enough about the
Speaker 1: growth of that, particularly internationally and on Apple podcasts. This
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