WEBVTT - NFL Week 8 Game Lines Reactions (Ep. 20) 0:00:08.320 --> 0:00:11.600 Hey there everyone. Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast, 0:00:11.680 --> 0:00:14.640 brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. 0:00:14.640 --> 0:00:16.720 You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Hadi. 0:00:17.040 --> 0:00:20.000 It is time for our early look at next week's lines, 0:00:20.040 --> 0:00:22.560 and with me to break it all down is Alex Kaloj, 0:00:22.960 --> 0:00:25.160 a sports betting writer for The Score. You can find 0:00:25.200 --> 0:00:28.320 him on Twitter at aj Kaloj and I will spell 0:00:28.360 --> 0:00:30.280 his last name for you because you will never get 0:00:30.280 --> 0:00:35.880 it right. Ko l O, d z I EJ. Alex. 0:00:35.920 --> 0:00:37.400 Thanks for coming back on the show. How's it going. 0:00:37.520 --> 0:00:39.680 I'm doing well, man, Thanks for having me good. 0:00:39.760 --> 0:00:42.680 I believe you were here for a pre season episode before, 0:00:42.800 --> 0:00:43.440 is that correct? 0:00:43.520 --> 0:00:46.000 Yeah? It was basically just me and you having a nice, 0:00:46.000 --> 0:00:49.040 cordial disagreement on the Houston Texans for about forty five minutes. 0:00:49.080 --> 0:00:50.479 But yes, it was a lot of fun and I'm 0:00:50.520 --> 0:00:51.160 glad to be back. 0:00:51.360 --> 0:00:53.199 All right. I feel like I was probably right on that, 0:00:53.240 --> 0:00:55.720 but I don't remember it specifically, so I'll leave it 0:00:55.800 --> 0:00:58.120 up to the listeners to go back and tell me differently. Now, 0:00:58.120 --> 0:00:59.920 how is week seven for you? Out of curiosity from 0:01:00.560 --> 0:01:02.560 NFL Betting Perspective, Week. 0:01:02.400 --> 0:01:06.200 Seven was Okay, a lot more totals than sides had 0:01:06.200 --> 0:01:09.720 come through. And it's funny because I had been playing 0:01:10.040 --> 0:01:13.560 strictly totals for the first couple of weeks, and there 0:01:13.600 --> 0:01:15.479 were a couple of sides that stuck out and saw 0:01:15.520 --> 0:01:15.880 a lot. 0:01:15.720 --> 0:01:17.360 Of sharp players that were on the same side, and 0:01:17.400 --> 0:01:19.680 I thought, you know what, I'll try my hand. 0:01:19.480 --> 0:01:21.840 On some sides, and sure enough, I got reverse wept. 0:01:21.880 --> 0:01:24.440 So heading into this week, I'll probably have to regroup 0:01:24.520 --> 0:01:26.440 a little bit and probably go back to just playing 0:01:26.480 --> 0:01:29.800 some totals and player props and stuff like that. 0:01:29.840 --> 0:01:31.480 But yeah, overall, it was a good week. 0:01:31.520 --> 0:01:33.640 I feel like this season in the NFL has been 0:01:34.000 --> 0:01:35.840 pretty kind to me, and I wish I could say 0:01:35.840 --> 0:01:38.160 the same about college football. So it's basically been ass 0:01:38.160 --> 0:01:40.559 backwards the last two years in terms of college football 0:01:40.560 --> 0:01:43.240 and NFL. I feel like my strengths for the past 0:01:43.560 --> 0:01:45.959 decade of and college football and NFL has just kind 0:01:45.959 --> 0:01:48.120 of been throwing some darts here and there. But for 0:01:48.160 --> 0:01:51.120 whatever reason, the NFL has been pretty profitable so far. 0:01:51.160 --> 0:01:53.520 How about yourself, right, Well, our early impressions are going 0:01:53.560 --> 0:01:55.840 to be spot on right now, I'm making that proclamation, 0:01:55.960 --> 0:01:57.560 so don't you worried about it. Now, Alex and I 0:01:57.640 --> 0:01:59.680 are going to be going through each game on the 0:01:59.720 --> 0:02:02.200 Week eight slate. We're going to be using the consensus 0:02:02.280 --> 0:02:05.040 odds over at bettingpros dot com. Now, unless this is 0:02:05.080 --> 0:02:07.520 your first time listening, you know that the consensus odds 0:02:07.760 --> 0:02:10.240 are an aggregation of the odds that are available on 0:02:10.280 --> 0:02:12.080 the market. But as always, there are going to be 0:02:12.120 --> 0:02:15.120 differences in the various sports books, so go ahead and 0:02:15.160 --> 0:02:17.240 shop around for the best odds. Also, if you want 0:02:17.280 --> 0:02:19.560 to see how some of the top sports betting experts 0:02:19.800 --> 0:02:22.079 are leaning on any given bet at any given time, 0:02:22.120 --> 0:02:24.480 Betting pros dot Com is going to show you that too. 0:02:24.639 --> 0:02:26.560 All right, Alex, let's dive right in here with the 0:02:26.680 --> 0:02:30.560 Redskins at the Vikings on Thursday night. The current aggregate 0:02:30.560 --> 0:02:34.280 odds are Vikings minus fifteen and the over under at 0:02:34.360 --> 0:02:36.760 forty one and a half. Now the spread has dropped 0:02:36.760 --> 0:02:38.720 from the look ahead line it was sixteen and a half, 0:02:38.800 --> 0:02:40.959 so the Vikings now are down about a point and 0:02:40.960 --> 0:02:43.040 a half from where they were. Vikings are really starting 0:02:43.080 --> 0:02:44.840 to getting a role here. They continue to mix in 0:02:44.880 --> 0:02:47.440 their passing game a little bit more. Does not sound 0:02:47.480 --> 0:02:49.919 like Adam Thielen is going to play. More likely he's 0:02:49.960 --> 0:02:53.040 out until Week nine after he left Sunday's game against 0:02:53.040 --> 0:02:55.959 the Lions with a hamstring injury. I doubt the Vikings 0:02:56.000 --> 0:02:57.240 are going to need him to win, but that could 0:02:57.280 --> 0:02:59.760 account a little bit for the money probably coming in 0:02:59.760 --> 0:03:02.200 a lit little bit on the Redskins. As for them, 0:03:02.280 --> 0:03:04.480 they are coming off the monsoon game against the forty 0:03:04.560 --> 0:03:07.079 nine ers where you really couldn't draw any specific conclusions. 0:03:07.080 --> 0:03:09.120 So how do you feel about Vikings playing fifteen and 0:03:09.160 --> 0:03:10.960 the over under forty one and a half. 0:03:11.160 --> 0:03:12.960 Yeah, I don't have much of an edge on this game. 0:03:13.000 --> 0:03:16.440 The numbers look about right, especially with Adam Dala being out. 0:03:16.520 --> 0:03:18.280 Kind of had to adjust a little bit for that. 0:03:19.240 --> 0:03:21.160 I just, you know, I find it weird because Washington 0:03:21.200 --> 0:03:24.000 to start the season they were such a good overteam. 0:03:24.280 --> 0:03:27.120 Everybody was throwing on their defense and their secondary and 0:03:27.120 --> 0:03:31.200 then that basically put case Keenum into into full pass mode. 0:03:31.240 --> 0:03:32.760 And I remember the first couple of weeks, you know, 0:03:32.760 --> 0:03:35.080 I was playing his player props over passing years almost 0:03:35.120 --> 0:03:37.120 every week, and it was you know, it worked out 0:03:37.160 --> 0:03:39.680 pretty well given the situation and how games had played out. 0:03:39.800 --> 0:03:42.920 Now you look at the last three four games, Washington's 0:03:43.000 --> 0:03:45.120 kind of turned into an under team, and I know 0:03:45.200 --> 0:03:48.440 last week's weather or excuse me, yesterday's weather with San 0:03:48.480 --> 0:03:51.320 Francisco kind of you know, I don't know exactly how 0:03:51.400 --> 0:03:52.920 much you can you can put into that. It was 0:03:52.960 --> 0:03:55.440 basically a slot fest with a lot of running the football. 0:03:55.440 --> 0:03:58.560 But I agree with the move here from from forty 0:03:58.600 --> 0:04:00.960 I think the opener forty forty half to forty one 0:04:00.960 --> 0:04:04.440 and a half because I think this weekend with Washington, 0:04:04.480 --> 0:04:06.760 you know, they've played you know, they played the Miami, 0:04:06.920 --> 0:04:09.400 they were in there with with San Francisco, you know, 0:04:09.520 --> 0:04:12.280 yesterday and whatnot, and they were perfectly content with running 0:04:12.320 --> 0:04:15.280 the ball. And with the new coaching change, they've obviously 0:04:15.320 --> 0:04:17.400 adopted that identity that they wanted to run the football. 0:04:17.400 --> 0:04:21.120 But you know, as sixteen point underdogs and probably going 0:04:21.160 --> 0:04:23.000 to be trailing most of the game, I think Washington's 0:04:23.040 --> 0:04:24.600 gonna have to throw the balls to get back into it. 0:04:24.600 --> 0:04:26.560 So my initial lean here is actually the over at 0:04:26.600 --> 0:04:29.479 forty one and a half. So, you know, after the 0:04:29.480 --> 0:04:31.280 first three weeks of going over, in the last three 0:04:31.279 --> 0:04:32.960 weeks being an under team, I think I'm going to 0:04:33.000 --> 0:04:34.960 go back to on the go back on the wagon. 0:04:34.960 --> 0:04:37.159 Here and probably lean over here forty one and a half. 0:04:37.440 --> 0:04:39.200 Yeah, I agree with that. I mean the Redskins are 0:04:39.279 --> 0:04:42.679 overall relatively healthy in the Vikings defense, while strong, of course, 0:04:42.720 --> 0:04:45.920 I mean they're not this just like lockdown unit anymore. 0:04:45.920 --> 0:04:48.800 As Detroit showed yesterday putting up points with you know, 0:04:48.880 --> 0:04:52.000 relative ease. It was more about the Vikings offense. And yeah, 0:04:52.200 --> 0:04:55.719 you know, a Thursday night game without Adam Thielen. Fine, 0:04:55.800 --> 0:04:58.240 but you know, I feel like as a general matter, 0:04:58.600 --> 0:05:01.599 defenses aren't you know, always, you know, fully up for 0:05:01.640 --> 0:05:03.920 the challenge going over here. You've got the Vikings coming 0:05:03.960 --> 0:05:06.599 up with games against the Chiefs and then following that 0:05:06.680 --> 0:05:08.520 up with the game against Dallas. This is an easy 0:05:08.520 --> 0:05:10.800 spot for them to look ahead. I don't worry too 0:05:10.839 --> 0:05:12.640 much about the spread, but I don't have a real 0:05:12.680 --> 0:05:14.240 good lean on it. But I agree with you that 0:05:14.320 --> 0:05:16.919 I think that the over is probably the player. At 0:05:17.000 --> 0:05:20.000 least early, it's already moved that point. I would wouldn't 0:05:20.000 --> 0:05:21.960 be surprised to see it move up to closer to 0:05:21.960 --> 0:05:23.839 forty two, maybe even forty two and a half. 0:05:23.880 --> 0:05:26.080 And I will say this too, Dan, I think early 0:05:26.080 --> 0:05:28.719 in the season the past, you know, the first you know, 0:05:28.839 --> 0:05:31.279 six seven weeks, I saw a lot of primetime games, 0:05:31.279 --> 0:05:33.080 a lot of Thursday Night games go under the total. 0:05:33.160 --> 0:05:35.359 It seems like every primetime game, Sunday night, Moday night, 0:05:35.440 --> 0:05:37.400 Thursday Night seem to be low scoring games. 0:05:37.400 --> 0:05:38.360 And I think now that we're. 0:05:38.200 --> 0:05:40.400 Getting kind of into, you know, the second half of 0:05:40.480 --> 0:05:43.000 the season here, we're going to start seeing that you know, 0:05:43.080 --> 0:05:45.240 four day rest, the three and a half day rest 0:05:45.279 --> 0:05:47.359 from Sunday to Thursday start taking new effect for the 0:05:47.400 --> 0:05:49.280 defenses here, and I think we'll start seeing a little 0:05:49.279 --> 0:05:50.200 bit more high scoring. 0:05:50.000 --> 0:05:51.960 Games as the season goes on, To be perfectly honest 0:05:52.000 --> 0:05:52.280 with you. 0:05:52.640 --> 0:05:55.400 Yeah, absolutely agree. Moving on to the next game, Seahawks 0:05:55.440 --> 0:05:58.240 at the Falcons, the odds are still Seahawks laying three 0:05:58.240 --> 0:06:00.000 and a half, and the over under at fifty three 0:06:00.080 --> 0:06:02.040 and a half moved just slightly from the opening line 0:06:02.400 --> 0:06:04.800 of fifty four. You've obviously got some question marks here 0:06:04.800 --> 0:06:08.440 for the Falcons. Matt Ryan has a sprained ankle. He's 0:06:08.600 --> 0:06:11.120 not ruled out for Week eight. He could play. Certainly, 0:06:11.120 --> 0:06:14.120 the Falcon season is a complete dumpster fire and basically 0:06:14.160 --> 0:06:17.080 done already at this point. Edo Smith is ruled out, 0:06:17.560 --> 0:06:20.240 But other than that, this really depends on Matt Ryan. 0:06:20.279 --> 0:06:22.640 So it's a little difficult. But let's assume Ryan plays 0:06:22.680 --> 0:06:25.320 here unless you think it's worth jumping in at the Seahawks. 0:06:25.360 --> 0:06:27.440 Leaning three and a half just given the uncertainty with 0:06:27.600 --> 0:06:31.520 the Seahawks though, Look, they you know, are probably pretty 0:06:31.800 --> 0:06:34.800 angry coming off a bad loss against Baltimore at home. 0:06:34.839 --> 0:06:38.080 They were a little bit embarrassed. They're relatively healthy, not 0:06:38.120 --> 0:06:40.880 fully of little injuries on the defensive side. But you know, 0:06:41.240 --> 0:06:43.360 I'll be honest, three and a half regardless of Ryan. 0:06:43.400 --> 0:06:45.599 I'm all assume Ryan's healthy. Three and a half struck 0:06:45.680 --> 0:06:48.000 me as a little bit light here. I expected this 0:06:48.080 --> 0:06:50.040 to be more like four and a half somewhere closer 0:06:50.040 --> 0:06:51.359 to that, and I think it's going to move that 0:06:51.440 --> 0:06:54.560 way regardless of whether or not Ryan is ruled out. 0:06:54.720 --> 0:06:57.239 Yeah, I would expect that to jump even if Ryan's 0:06:57.360 --> 0:07:00.560 in high ankle sprain. I believe it is. Even if 0:07:00.560 --> 0:07:02.479 he's you know, even if he goes, he's not going 0:07:02.520 --> 0:07:04.279 to be one hundred percent. And if I could be 0:07:04.320 --> 0:07:07.479 wrong here, but I think some shops actually moved this 0:07:07.640 --> 0:07:11.960 up to seven with with Ryan being out. You know, 0:07:12.000 --> 0:07:14.000 I was reading some stuff talking to somebos and had 0:07:14.040 --> 0:07:16.200 a group discussion, and you know that would imply that 0:07:16.240 --> 0:07:17.840 he's worth you know, three and a half points to 0:07:17.880 --> 0:07:20.840 the spread here. But I would actually say that Ryan's 0:07:20.880 --> 0:07:23.480 worth more in this case from you know, the drop 0:07:23.520 --> 0:07:25.960 off from Ryan to Shop. I think it's a lot 0:07:25.960 --> 0:07:27.360 more than that. To be perfectly honest with you, I 0:07:27.360 --> 0:07:29.680 don't I know, Matt Ryan's not playing like an MVP, 0:07:29.920 --> 0:07:33.320 but you know, for him to keep the Falcons in 0:07:33.400 --> 0:07:35.760 games the shootouts like that takes a lot. Like for 0:07:35.840 --> 0:07:39.600 four quarters, this seems almost always trailing. And you know, 0:07:39.760 --> 0:07:41.200 for all the problems that they've had, I don't think 0:07:41.200 --> 0:07:44.520 he's been that big of a problem. You know, Seattle, 0:07:44.520 --> 0:07:46.560 I've played a lot of Seattle overs early in the season. 0:07:46.760 --> 0:07:48.640 They were one of my favorite teams to players. I 0:07:48.640 --> 0:07:52.360 think they played their overs four straight weeks. You know, 0:07:52.400 --> 0:07:54.720 obviously don't they don't have the defense that they once had. 0:07:54.760 --> 0:07:56.760 But for me, when I made this number, I made 0:07:56.800 --> 0:07:58.640 it fifty two and a half. So fifty three and 0:07:58.640 --> 0:08:00.640 a half is pushing it. Fifty three and a half 0:08:00.680 --> 0:08:03.200 fifty four is pushing it. For me, I would honestly 0:08:03.280 --> 0:08:07.840 lean under here, Seahawks still a run heavy team. Don't 0:08:07.880 --> 0:08:10.280 let Russell Wilson's pass as fully, they still want to 0:08:10.520 --> 0:08:12.000 want to put the ball on the ground, and in 0:08:12.040 --> 0:08:14.320 Atlanta actually has a very underrated front seven. 0:08:14.560 --> 0:08:15.360 I know they've been bad. 0:08:15.400 --> 0:08:18.360 I know the numbers would suggest otherwise, but they have 0:08:18.400 --> 0:08:21.120 been getting pressure. So in this case I would lean 0:08:21.240 --> 0:08:24.240 under and and basically hope that you know that Matt 0:08:24.280 --> 0:08:26.800 Shop comes in and plays there, that Ryan isn't exactly 0:08:26.800 --> 0:08:27.400 one hundred percent. 0:08:27.480 --> 0:08:29.680 But my initial lean here is actually under, which is. 0:08:29.640 --> 0:08:32.560 Crazy because I love playing both teams over, but this 0:08:32.760 --> 0:08:34.040 just this number just got. 0:08:33.920 --> 0:08:34.560 Too high for me. 0:08:35.040 --> 0:08:36.880 I think this is a game where the Seahawks can 0:08:37.040 --> 0:08:39.920 probably win it pretty easily regardless of if Ryan plays, 0:08:39.920 --> 0:08:42.200 particularly though if he's compromised, and I think in the 0:08:42.320 --> 0:08:44.320 end that is what they want to do, right, I mean, 0:08:44.440 --> 0:08:47.240 Russell Wilson has been incredible, but in the end, Brian 0:08:47.280 --> 0:08:49.880 Schottenheimer wants to run the ball, run the ball, run 0:08:49.920 --> 0:08:51.600 the ball. That's all he really wants to do. And 0:08:51.600 --> 0:08:53.440 I think this is a game that they can control 0:08:53.480 --> 0:08:57.480 pretty easily on the ground, you know, just generally because 0:08:57.559 --> 0:09:00.520 Chris Carson has been so good, and you know, I 0:09:00.559 --> 0:09:02.200 think they'll be able to score. But I agree, this 0:09:02.280 --> 0:09:04.360 is not a game that I think trends is a 0:09:04.360 --> 0:09:06.560 shootout regardless. So I grew with the under and if 0:09:06.600 --> 0:09:08.440 you can get again, you know there are shops still 0:09:08.440 --> 0:09:10.600 offering three point five right now. I jump on it. 0:09:10.640 --> 0:09:12.680 For the Seahxcers, I don't really care if Ryan plays, 0:09:12.720 --> 0:09:15.000 even if you were one hundred percent. The Falcons are 0:09:15.040 --> 0:09:16.960 just in disarray. I can't believe Dan Quinn still has 0:09:16.960 --> 0:09:19.560 a job at this point. So if you like the line, 0:09:19.640 --> 0:09:21.800 Joe Bonnett and if it pushes to seven, I mean, 0:09:21.840 --> 0:09:24.600 if Ryan's out, I'm still fine to do that with 0:09:24.679 --> 0:09:27.000 Matt schob because, as you pointed out, it is not 0:09:27.320 --> 0:09:31.160 an insignificant downgrade, certainly at the quarterback spot. Let's move 0:09:31.200 --> 0:09:33.480 on here to Broncos at the Colts. Colts here are 0:09:33.520 --> 0:09:36.000 laying six and a half over under is at forty 0:09:36.000 --> 0:09:38.040 three and a half. Colts just continue to roll. They're 0:09:38.080 --> 0:09:40.679 still an underrated team, and with Darius Leonard back, they 0:09:40.720 --> 0:09:42.760 can really lock down the run like they did against 0:09:42.800 --> 0:09:46.000 the Texans. Meanwhile, the Broncos were everyone's underrated team that's 0:09:46.040 --> 0:09:48.760 so much better than their record until they laid a 0:09:48.960 --> 0:09:51.880 terrible egg against the Chiefs, even with Patrick Mahomes out. 0:09:52.160 --> 0:09:54.280 On Thursday night. Now they have to travel to Indianapolis. 0:09:54.280 --> 0:09:56.079 They get the mini by here because they're coming off 0:09:56.080 --> 0:09:57.880 at Thursday night game. But how do you feel about 0:09:57.920 --> 0:10:00.280 Colts laying six and a half under the keynotber of 0:10:00.280 --> 0:10:02.280 seven and the over under at forty three and a half. 0:10:02.440 --> 0:10:06.000 Yeah, this is gonna be another under for me. I 0:10:06.040 --> 0:10:08.559 was on the under of this past weekend Indianapolis Houston 0:10:08.840 --> 0:10:12.400 and watching it unfold, this is just reminded me how 0:10:12.480 --> 0:10:13.040 much I. 0:10:12.960 --> 0:10:14.160 Hate betting unders. 0:10:14.200 --> 0:10:19.600 But I sincerely think that this Colts team is not 0:10:19.720 --> 0:10:22.360 the Colts team that we think it is, despite seeing 0:10:22.360 --> 0:10:27.320 the score this past weekend. I know playing Houston's secondary 0:10:28.000 --> 0:10:29.680 is a recipe for playing overs, but I thought it 0:10:29.720 --> 0:10:31.920 was a good under because Jacoby Brissett's basically been. 0:10:31.800 --> 0:10:32.480 A game manager. 0:10:32.520 --> 0:10:34.160 If they haven't really put the ball in his hands, 0:10:34.240 --> 0:10:36.679 they don't mind handing the ball off to Marlon Mack 0:10:36.720 --> 0:10:40.000 and Jeorde Wilkins and you know, letting Jacoby Prissette throw 0:10:40.040 --> 0:10:42.920 here and there. But they're not a shootout team. I 0:10:43.000 --> 0:10:46.040 made this forty two and a half Denver's. Denver's offense, 0:10:46.080 --> 0:10:50.200 to me, doesn't offer any upside. Joe Flacco obviously hasn't 0:10:50.240 --> 0:10:53.880 been playing great. I think their receiving corps is extremely underwhelming. 0:10:55.800 --> 0:10:57.760 Their defense is really the only thing that I can 0:10:57.960 --> 0:11:00.640 can really pinpoint here as a strength. And to me, 0:11:00.720 --> 0:11:02.199 I think this number is a point point and a 0:11:02.240 --> 0:11:03.719 half high and I'm gonna wait to see if i 0:11:03.720 --> 0:11:06.600 can get forty four. Forty four pops up, then I'm 0:11:06.600 --> 0:11:08.320 gonna be on the under. But already grabs them at 0:11:08.360 --> 0:11:09.839 forty three and a half and I feel real good 0:11:09.840 --> 0:11:10.240 about it. 0:11:10.520 --> 0:11:12.440 How about six and a half because that feels about 0:11:12.520 --> 0:11:14.120 right to me. I mean, I expect the Colts to 0:11:14.160 --> 0:11:16.360 win here. I wasn't surprised to see it under seven, 0:11:16.400 --> 0:11:18.880 but I think this is about where it's gonna end up. 0:11:18.880 --> 0:11:20.440 I don't expect it to move, and I think if 0:11:20.480 --> 0:11:23.360 you like either side, you can wait because I'd be 0:11:23.440 --> 0:11:26.079 shocked if it moves up to the key number of seven. 0:11:26.080 --> 0:11:27.240 But that feels about right to me. 0:11:27.640 --> 0:11:32.160 Yeah, this feels very very early reminiscent of you know 0:11:32.240 --> 0:11:35.800 the Colts they trying to think of. It was week four, 0:11:36.280 --> 0:11:38.640 they were off a win, and then they came back 0:11:38.679 --> 0:11:40.439 home and they were playing in Oakland and laid on 0:11:40.559 --> 0:11:42.280 six and a half and it was just it looked 0:11:42.320 --> 0:11:45.320 just so good to be true. Yeah, you know, road 0:11:45.360 --> 0:11:51.200 teams off buys have typically fared well, and you know 0:11:51.280 --> 0:11:53.600 maybe that plays a part into it too, But no 0:11:53.679 --> 0:11:55.520 play on this on the spread, I made it six, 0:11:56.280 --> 0:11:59.280 So you know, I couldn't tell you I'm terrible at 0:11:59.280 --> 0:12:02.560 reading the market on spreads. I just it's it's gotten 0:12:02.559 --> 0:12:04.360 to the point now where it doesn't matter how hard 0:12:04.400 --> 0:12:06.480 I try. I just I can't get a read on 0:12:06.480 --> 0:12:09.920 the market in terms of spreads. So you know, I'm 0:12:09.960 --> 0:12:11.480 going back to the wall here with the total. I 0:12:11.520 --> 0:12:14.120 just I think Denver and Indianapolis are gonna wind up 0:12:14.160 --> 0:12:16.040 being two of the best under teams once it's all. 0:12:15.960 --> 0:12:16.520 Said and done. 0:12:16.559 --> 0:12:18.400 And I know that some of the box scores for 0:12:18.440 --> 0:12:22.320 Indianapolis would suggest otherwise, but really, their identity under Frank Reich, 0:12:22.320 --> 0:12:24.319 which is kind of weird to say, is it's kind 0:12:24.320 --> 0:12:25.960 of been a conservative approach on offense. 0:12:25.960 --> 0:12:27.680 And I think we're gonna see a slog. 0:12:27.360 --> 0:12:29.560 Here, all right, So you heard it there. First, you 0:12:29.600 --> 0:12:31.920 listen to whatever Alex says on the spread and just 0:12:31.920 --> 0:12:35.760 do the opposite. But no, no, no, I honestly that's 0:12:35.800 --> 0:12:38.160 fine that I've had. You know, a couple of weeks 0:12:38.200 --> 0:12:39.400 where I felt great about it, in a couple of 0:12:39.400 --> 0:12:40.760 weeks where I don't really have a good sense. This 0:12:40.800 --> 0:12:42.880 at six point five feels about right to me. With 0:12:42.880 --> 0:12:45.840 the Colts coming off a giant win against the Texans, 0:12:45.840 --> 0:12:47.440 it feels a little bit like a letdown game, and 0:12:47.440 --> 0:12:49.680 everybody's kind of off the Broncos because of how bad 0:12:49.679 --> 0:12:52.000 they looked. But they're not nearly that bad a team, 0:12:52.080 --> 0:12:53.480 so I think six and a half is good. I 0:12:53.480 --> 0:12:56.200 would probably lean towards the Colts overall, so long as 0:12:56.200 --> 0:12:58.280 it stays below the key number, but it's not something 0:12:58.320 --> 0:13:00.600 where I'm overly excited about, nor I'm i With the 0:13:00.679 --> 0:13:04.079 Cardinals at Saints, this was actually Saints laying eight and 0:13:04.160 --> 0:13:06.880 a half. It's moved all the way up to Saints 0:13:06.960 --> 0:13:09.720 lang ten, and the over under has stayed relatively where 0:13:09.720 --> 0:13:13.240 it is forty eight open going to forty seven and 0:13:13.280 --> 0:13:15.400 a half. So there's two teams. Look, they're both trending 0:13:15.400 --> 0:13:17.640 in the right direction. The Saints remain undefeated with Teddy 0:13:17.640 --> 0:13:20.360 Bridgewater under center. They don't miss a beat without Alvin 0:13:20.400 --> 0:13:24.080 Kamara yesterday against the Bears. They're playing lights out defensively. Meanwhile, 0:13:24.120 --> 0:13:26.240 the Cardinals have now won three in a row and 0:13:26.280 --> 0:13:28.880 they got Patrick Peterson back. Admittedly, their three wins were 0:13:28.880 --> 0:13:31.920 against the Bengals, Falcons, and Giants, three of the worst 0:13:31.920 --> 0:13:34.280 teams in the league. So thoughts on coming in here 0:13:34.280 --> 0:13:36.920 at Saints when it was eight and a half, it 0:13:36.960 --> 0:13:38.800 was a little shocking to me. Ten makes me a 0:13:38.880 --> 0:13:41.760 little more hesitant. But Saints lang ten and the over under, 0:13:41.800 --> 0:13:43.480 I know that's your bread and butter forty seven and 0:13:43.520 --> 0:13:43.840 a half. 0:13:44.080 --> 0:13:47.079 Yeah, so New Orleans was actually one of the first 0:13:47.120 --> 0:13:50.400 bets I made this week. Arizona right now is probably 0:13:50.400 --> 0:13:52.720 at the peak of their price right now in the market. 0:13:54.000 --> 0:13:54.760 Yeah, you could say. 0:13:54.600 --> 0:13:57.560 That they have momentum, but obviously have to look at 0:13:57.559 --> 0:14:00.560 the schedule. I mean, they beat Cincinnati sinn eighteen. That 0:14:00.600 --> 0:14:02.800 was off a Thursday or excuse me, a you know, 0:14:02.840 --> 0:14:07.080 a primetime loss to Pittsburgh. They beat Atlanta, you know, 0:14:07.240 --> 0:14:09.640 a depleted Atlanta team who was off of beat down 0:14:09.679 --> 0:14:11.680 in Houston, so they were on the second of a 0:14:11.720 --> 0:14:14.680 back to back road game as well. And then last 0:14:14.720 --> 0:14:16.800 week they go into New York. They go up seventeen 0:14:16.800 --> 0:14:19.440 to nothing and really didn't look back. And the weather 0:14:19.480 --> 0:14:21.640 in that game I think affected both game plans. But 0:14:22.440 --> 0:14:24.240 you know, coming in, I think that New Orleans is 0:14:24.240 --> 0:14:27.000 going to be able to do whatever they want offensively. 0:14:28.040 --> 0:14:30.320 The offensive line is playing as good as anybody in 0:14:30.320 --> 0:14:32.000 football right now, and I think that they're gonna be 0:14:32.000 --> 0:14:36.040 able to contain Arizona's quote unquote pass rush or lack thereof. 0:14:37.120 --> 0:14:40.440 And you know, Teddy Bridgewater twenty eight and seven against 0:14:40.440 --> 0:14:42.840 a spread as a starter in the NFL, the best record, 0:14:43.560 --> 0:14:46.840 you know for a minimum amount of stars for qualifying quarterback. 0:14:46.880 --> 0:14:48.880 I also lean to the under here at forty eight 0:14:48.880 --> 0:14:49.280 and a half. 0:14:50.320 --> 0:14:50.520 Yeah. 0:14:50.720 --> 0:14:53.960 I obviously don't love Cliff Kingsbury running basically a no 0:14:54.080 --> 0:14:57.080 huddle college set because that tends to give you a 0:14:57.080 --> 0:15:00.200 lot more possessions, tends to get in the a lot 0:15:00.240 --> 0:15:02.960 of shootouts as we've seen this year. But the way 0:15:03.040 --> 0:15:07.080 New Orleans defense is playing with Marshawn Lattimore and the 0:15:07.120 --> 0:15:10.000 pass rush that they have, and you know, I can't 0:15:10.000 --> 0:15:13.640 see Arizona on the second of a back to back 0:15:13.680 --> 0:15:16.320 going into a dome and putting up points against a really, 0:15:16.320 --> 0:15:17.520 really good New Orleans team. 0:15:18.000 --> 0:15:20.720 Yeah, I my worry in both of these numbers, the 0:15:20.720 --> 0:15:22.640 Saints slaying ten the over under and forty seven a 0:15:22.680 --> 0:15:24.120 half is that the Saints would get out to a 0:15:24.120 --> 0:15:25.720 big lead and then just kind of sit back a 0:15:25.800 --> 0:15:28.320 little bit like they did against the Bears here in 0:15:28.360 --> 0:15:31.080 this past game where the Bears were completely shut down 0:15:31.160 --> 0:15:33.280 all game and then they just came roaring back at 0:15:33.280 --> 0:15:34.840 the end with two touchdowns. They still lost by a 0:15:34.880 --> 0:15:37.720 significant amount, but that would really be my worry. And 0:15:37.760 --> 0:15:39.200 then I think the way the game plays out, the 0:15:39.200 --> 0:15:42.040 Saints should be able to win by ten points. I agree. 0:15:42.040 --> 0:15:44.720 The Cardinals to me strike me as complete paper tigers. 0:15:44.760 --> 0:15:47.680 With this schedule. The Saints defense is absolutely legitimate in 0:15:47.760 --> 0:15:50.280 that dome. They're getting really excited by the way. Of course, 0:15:50.280 --> 0:15:51.920 there is a question of whether or not Drew Brees 0:15:52.000 --> 0:15:54.120 is going to play, which could account a little bit 0:15:54.120 --> 0:15:55.880 of the number. I am going to be shocked if 0:15:55.920 --> 0:15:58.040 he plays in this game. I believe that they have 0:15:58.080 --> 0:16:00.840 a bye the week after, right, they do have a 0:16:00.880 --> 0:16:02.880 bye the week after that. I can't see any way 0:16:03.040 --> 0:16:05.360 that they bring them back before the following game against Atlanta. 0:16:05.440 --> 0:16:07.920 So to the extent that's factoring in, I really wouldn't 0:16:07.920 --> 0:16:10.520 I expect it to be Bridgewater. It's it hasn't been that, 0:16:10.800 --> 0:16:12.520 you know, crazy in terms of what the Saints have 0:16:12.520 --> 0:16:14.640 been able to do. But overall, I think the Saints 0:16:14.720 --> 0:16:16.880 minus ten in the over under now at forty seven 0:16:16.880 --> 0:16:20.080 and a half, I agree with with sort of you 0:16:20.080 --> 0:16:22.400 know that line being around right. I just don't think 0:16:22.440 --> 0:16:23.920 this is a game I'm going to touch at those 0:16:24.000 --> 0:16:26.400 numbers for fear of kind of like the back door 0:16:26.440 --> 0:16:29.440 cover certainly right by the Cardinals just sitting back a 0:16:29.480 --> 0:16:30.520 little bit and letting it happen. 0:16:30.600 --> 0:16:33.200 Yeah, yeah, I mean getting it whacked up all the 0:16:33.200 --> 0:16:33.720 way to ten. 0:16:33.800 --> 0:16:36.080 I mean if even if you're up by seventeen, I mean, 0:16:36.080 --> 0:16:38.560