1 00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:07,840 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:17,360 Speaker 2: And I think you can definitely see it in the 3 00:00:17,440 --> 00:00:20,239 Speaker 2: United States. If you look at the values of Republicans 4 00:00:20,280 --> 00:00:22,799 Speaker 2: and Democrats in the nineteen nineties, you can see that 5 00:00:22,840 --> 00:00:25,360 Speaker 2: they're like two sort of mountains, but they're quite close 6 00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:28,240 Speaker 2: to each other, and over the last thirty years those 7 00:00:28,280 --> 00:00:29,800 Speaker 2: have progressively moved apart. 8 00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:37,440 Speaker 3: Welcome to Voteromics, where politics and markets collide. This year, 9 00:00:37,560 --> 00:00:40,480 Speaker 3: voters around the world have the ability to affect markets, 10 00:00:40,560 --> 00:00:44,239 Speaker 3: countries and economies like never before, so we've created this 11 00:00:44,360 --> 00:00:47,159 Speaker 3: series Votermics to help you make sense of it all. 12 00:00:47,200 --> 00:00:50,560 Speaker 3: I'm Stephanie Flanders back in the London studio this week. 13 00:00:50,440 --> 00:00:52,680 Speaker 1: I'm Adriom Woodridge and I'm Alegri Stratton. 14 00:00:53,320 --> 00:00:54,640 Speaker 3: So at the top of the show, you just heard 15 00:00:54,640 --> 00:00:58,120 Speaker 3: from Ben Paige, chief executive officer of IPSOS and Multinational 16 00:00:58,160 --> 00:01:02,360 Speaker 3: Market Research and Consulting. Later in the episode, Legra and 17 00:01:02,400 --> 00:01:04,760 Speaker 3: I chat with him about what the polls are telling 18 00:01:04,840 --> 00:01:08,319 Speaker 3: us around Europe, around the US and the UK elections, 19 00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:11,160 Speaker 3: so stick around for that. He's had thirty five years 20 00:01:11,200 --> 00:01:15,520 Speaker 3: plus in the business. We also have John Author's talking 21 00:01:15,560 --> 00:01:20,000 Speaker 3: about whether the Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell is going 22 00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:24,000 Speaker 3: to be playing politics with his interest rate decisions over 23 00:01:24,040 --> 00:01:27,200 Speaker 3: the next six months. But first there's plenty for us 24 00:01:27,240 --> 00:01:30,360 Speaker 3: to talk about this week. But the top of the 25 00:01:30,400 --> 00:01:35,840 Speaker 3: agenda is the domestic but also the global fallout from 26 00:01:35,959 --> 00:01:40,320 Speaker 3: what's happening on the ground and in and in diplomatic 27 00:01:40,440 --> 00:01:44,600 Speaker 3: discussions around Rufa and Gaza. Maybe start with the domestic 28 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:48,080 Speaker 3: Allegra and Adrian because we saw in those lob We're 29 00:01:48,080 --> 00:01:51,320 Speaker 3: not going to talk too much about the UK rather 30 00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:54,400 Speaker 3: obscure local election results, but we did see probably the 31 00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:58,000 Speaker 3: one negative point for Labor in those otherwise very sort 32 00:01:58,040 --> 00:02:00,920 Speaker 3: of optimistic results. Very bad news for the Conservatives would 33 00:02:00,960 --> 00:02:03,080 Speaker 3: be that their vote was not holding up in some 34 00:02:03,160 --> 00:02:05,840 Speaker 3: key areas thanks to the debate over the Middle East. 35 00:02:06,040 --> 00:02:09,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, I wouldn't be too worried about it. I think 36 00:02:09,040 --> 00:02:12,400 Speaker 1: that the results were pretty forceful and sent a very 37 00:02:12,400 --> 00:02:15,240 Speaker 1: strong message to Downing Street. But it is very interesting, 38 00:02:15,800 --> 00:02:19,560 Speaker 1: and particularly it's interesting since that West Midlands result was 39 00:02:19,800 --> 00:02:23,720 Speaker 1: closer than Labor would have liked because, as you say, Steph, 40 00:02:23,760 --> 00:02:24,240 Speaker 1: because of the. 41 00:02:24,520 --> 00:02:25,720 Speaker 4: Gaza the mayor or. 42 00:02:26,040 --> 00:02:29,240 Speaker 1: Yeah, and what we've seen since then is the new 43 00:02:29,520 --> 00:02:32,240 Speaker 1: Labor West Midlands mayor come out and say he would 44 00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:35,760 Speaker 1: like an arms embargo, and you've seen already noises off 45 00:02:35,800 --> 00:02:38,760 Speaker 1: from other parts of the party saying hold on a second. 46 00:02:38,840 --> 00:02:41,000 Speaker 1: You're the West Midlands mayor and you're not the foreign 47 00:02:41,000 --> 00:02:44,239 Speaker 1: affairs spokesp person, and you don't write foreign policy for us. 48 00:02:44,560 --> 00:02:47,400 Speaker 1: And I think if we do, at some point this 49 00:02:47,520 --> 00:02:50,160 Speaker 1: year get a Labor government, I think these tensions are 50 00:02:50,200 --> 00:02:52,640 Speaker 1: going to be the new sort of defining tensions of 51 00:02:52,639 --> 00:02:56,840 Speaker 1: what we all write about, because it isn't straightforward for 52 00:02:57,000 --> 00:03:00,120 Speaker 1: a Prime Minister Starma to do an arms embargo, potential 53 00:03:00,280 --> 00:03:02,880 Speaker 1: straightforward for a Labor leader opposition needed to do in it. 54 00:03:03,000 --> 00:03:06,040 Speaker 1: I'll say, yeah, okay, we do believe in an arms embargo, 55 00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:09,520 Speaker 1: but I think for a PM it has all kinds 56 00:03:09,560 --> 00:03:14,840 Speaker 1: of implications for our global relationships and we perhaps can 57 00:03:14,919 --> 00:03:17,639 Speaker 1: discuss that at length. And I think, yes, it gave 58 00:03:17,720 --> 00:03:19,960 Speaker 1: them a fright, but I don't think it's in enough 59 00:03:20,000 --> 00:03:23,040 Speaker 1: places for it to be mission critical to them getting 60 00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:24,239 Speaker 1: in at the next election. 61 00:03:24,440 --> 00:03:26,799 Speaker 5: It's not a major problem for Labor now. I think 62 00:03:26,840 --> 00:03:29,919 Speaker 5: it will be a very significant problem when they take 63 00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:33,760 Speaker 5: power if what's happening in Israel continues to happen. I 64 00:03:33,760 --> 00:03:37,240 Speaker 5: think for Biden. It is a huge problem because it 65 00:03:37,520 --> 00:03:41,080 Speaker 5: splits his party much more than it splits the Labor Party, 66 00:03:41,120 --> 00:03:44,960 Speaker 5: because there's a very significant, long term, long standing Jewish 67 00:03:45,040 --> 00:03:47,720 Speaker 5: vote for the Democratic Party. On the other hand, a 68 00:03:47,760 --> 00:03:49,560 Speaker 5: lot of young people who ought to be part of 69 00:03:49,640 --> 00:03:53,240 Speaker 5: the Democratic base are very angry. It also creates because 70 00:03:53,240 --> 00:03:56,320 Speaker 5: of all the protests in the United States, which are 71 00:03:56,320 --> 00:03:58,800 Speaker 5: spreading here a little bit but are very big in 72 00:03:58,840 --> 00:04:02,960 Speaker 5: the United States. Creates a sort of sense of disorganization 73 00:04:03,600 --> 00:04:08,440 Speaker 5: of society falling apart of Plogesian dot being really in control, 74 00:04:08,480 --> 00:04:10,120 Speaker 5: and that is very good for people who pose as 75 00:04:10,160 --> 00:04:13,160 Speaker 5: strong men like Trump. So I think this could be 76 00:04:13,160 --> 00:04:16,240 Speaker 5: one of the things that in a tied election actually 77 00:04:16,279 --> 00:04:18,800 Speaker 5: shifts it towards Trump and the Republicans. 78 00:04:18,920 --> 00:04:22,599 Speaker 3: Just as we're recording this on Thursday, you've had President 79 00:04:22,720 --> 00:04:26,560 Speaker 3: Biden be explicit about holding back on heavy arm shipments 80 00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:29,720 Speaker 3: if there is a full scale invasion of Rougher. Our 81 00:04:29,800 --> 00:04:32,120 Speaker 3: sense is that certainly in the last week or so, 82 00:04:32,320 --> 00:04:34,640 Speaker 3: it was the Israelis who were choosing to make that 83 00:04:34,720 --> 00:04:38,240 Speaker 3: pressure public, so that the administration had actually still been 84 00:04:38,279 --> 00:04:45,480 Speaker 3: doing through diplomatic channels questioning pausing shipments. But again that 85 00:04:45,560 --> 00:04:47,960 Speaker 3: was actually intended to be private, and it was Israelis 86 00:04:48,000 --> 00:04:50,120 Speaker 3: who decided to make that public. So it's an interesting 87 00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:52,880 Speaker 3: game that they're playing, wanting to make things more politically 88 00:04:53,640 --> 00:04:57,800 Speaker 3: tense for Biden because the Republicans are obviously coming back 89 00:04:58,200 --> 00:05:00,720 Speaker 3: concerring his starts. The other thing I was struck by, 90 00:05:00,760 --> 00:05:02,440 Speaker 3: and we actually had a story about it this week 91 00:05:02,440 --> 00:05:05,479 Speaker 3: about Gaza is China's new wedge issue to split the 92 00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:08,239 Speaker 3: US from the global South, and what that was trying 93 00:05:08,279 --> 00:05:11,000 Speaker 3: to get at was I felt the global fallout for 94 00:05:11,080 --> 00:05:14,559 Speaker 3: the US in terms of its diminished moral standing coming 95 00:05:14,600 --> 00:05:17,120 Speaker 3: at a time when actually Biden had wanted to be 96 00:05:17,160 --> 00:05:21,920 Speaker 3: on the front foot providing a counterweight to China's increasing clout, 97 00:05:22,000 --> 00:05:25,080 Speaker 3: whether it's in the Middle East, but also explicitly in 98 00:05:25,080 --> 00:05:28,400 Speaker 3: places like Latin America and Africa. And we are seeing 99 00:05:28,520 --> 00:05:34,919 Speaker 3: China intervene actively to stir up countries and point to 100 00:05:36,080 --> 00:05:39,640 Speaker 3: the Biden's position in Gaza as a reason not to 101 00:05:39,760 --> 00:05:42,880 Speaker 3: be building more ties with the US, and I think 102 00:05:42,920 --> 00:05:44,039 Speaker 3: that could be very corrosive. 103 00:05:44,080 --> 00:05:47,640 Speaker 5: Absolutely, We've seen China for a long time has been 104 00:05:47,680 --> 00:05:50,800 Speaker 5: posing as a sort of development model for the emerging 105 00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:54,320 Speaker 5: world that follow us, and you will have state driven growth, 106 00:05:54,640 --> 00:05:56,640 Speaker 5: and that's a wonderful thing. Now it's going back to 107 00:05:56,720 --> 00:05:59,839 Speaker 5: the old days of follow us, and you'll be putting 108 00:05:59,880 --> 00:06:03,400 Speaker 5: a stick in the eye of the evil capitalists who 109 00:06:03,400 --> 00:06:05,719 Speaker 5: are causing all this trouble. The evil United States is 110 00:06:05,760 --> 00:06:08,960 Speaker 5: going back to the old world of advocating the position 111 00:06:09,000 --> 00:06:11,679 Speaker 5: of the oppressed in the world. So China can shift 112 00:06:11,760 --> 00:06:14,120 Speaker 5: between the development model on the one hand and the 113 00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:17,200 Speaker 5: sort of the anti evil imperialist model on the other hand. 114 00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:18,960 Speaker 1: And of course, a couple of years ago, back when 115 00:06:18,960 --> 00:06:21,880 Speaker 1: I was in government, there was the American and Boris 116 00:06:21,960 --> 00:06:25,400 Speaker 1: Johnson following suit response to the Belton Road initiative. So 117 00:06:26,240 --> 00:06:29,640 Speaker 1: the sort of trendy idea of the time was, I 118 00:06:29,680 --> 00:06:32,520 Speaker 1: mean it began being cooked, remember, built that better and 119 00:06:32,560 --> 00:06:35,600 Speaker 1: then build that world, and it morphed all the time. 120 00:06:35,640 --> 00:06:37,360 Speaker 1: And then Boris wanted it to be called the Clean 121 00:06:37,360 --> 00:06:40,919 Speaker 1: Green Initiative, and that was helping the global South become 122 00:06:40,960 --> 00:06:44,520 Speaker 1: more climate resilient through aid from America and France and 123 00:06:44,600 --> 00:06:47,040 Speaker 1: journal and so on and so forth. These ideas that 124 00:06:47,400 --> 00:06:49,280 Speaker 1: one has, I don't hear people talk about their very 125 00:06:49,320 --> 00:06:50,800 Speaker 1: much debt initiatives. 126 00:06:50,960 --> 00:06:52,080 Speaker 4: It's probably more likely to do. 127 00:06:52,279 --> 00:06:54,720 Speaker 3: Also, I thought was fascinating. We've got this Institute for 128 00:06:54,760 --> 00:06:58,040 Speaker 3: Strategic Dialogue saying that there's a pro Chinese Communist Party 129 00:06:58,080 --> 00:07:02,279 Speaker 3: operators known as Spammerflage, using accounts posing as right wing 130 00:07:02,320 --> 00:07:05,520 Speaker 3: Americans and targeting the Guards of Water to flame internal 131 00:07:05,600 --> 00:07:07,919 Speaker 3: US division. We think of Russia as playing these games, 132 00:07:07,960 --> 00:07:10,960 Speaker 3: but obviously it is also China. And I'm quite keen 133 00:07:11,000 --> 00:07:14,000 Speaker 3: to hear what these right wing spamouflages are actually called 134 00:07:14,000 --> 00:07:14,920 Speaker 3: fos games. 135 00:07:14,920 --> 00:07:18,040 Speaker 5: You're probably playing into the hands of Trump because, as 136 00:07:18,080 --> 00:07:20,920 Speaker 5: I said earlier, disorder leads to a desire for a 137 00:07:20,920 --> 00:07:22,960 Speaker 5: strong man. Now do we think that the Chinese actually 138 00:07:22,960 --> 00:07:23,560 Speaker 5: want Trump? 139 00:07:24,280 --> 00:07:24,679 Speaker 4: In Paris? 140 00:07:24,720 --> 00:07:26,679 Speaker 5: Clear that Netinna who would rather have Trump than Biden, 141 00:07:26,720 --> 00:07:28,840 Speaker 5: But what about the Chinese and the Russians may well 142 00:07:28,880 --> 00:07:29,520 Speaker 5: be the same thing. 143 00:07:35,640 --> 00:07:37,760 Speaker 3: All right, We're going to do it's a handbrake turn now, 144 00:07:37,880 --> 00:07:41,360 Speaker 3: this being about the collision of politics and markets. The 145 00:07:41,440 --> 00:07:43,440 Speaker 3: fact that we are just at the sort of turn 146 00:07:43,520 --> 00:07:46,920 Speaker 3: of an interest rates cycle, both in the UK and 147 00:07:47,040 --> 00:07:49,800 Speaker 3: in Europe and in the US, I think does pose 148 00:07:49,800 --> 00:07:53,040 Speaker 3: a question for many central bankers both sides of the Atlantic, 149 00:07:53,680 --> 00:07:56,240 Speaker 3: how they're going to navigate a time when they're just 150 00:07:56,280 --> 00:07:59,160 Speaker 3: deciding whether or not to start bringing interest rates down, 151 00:08:00,000 --> 00:08:03,000 Speaker 3: managed to dodge a recession, and the timing is going 152 00:08:03,040 --> 00:08:05,360 Speaker 3: to be quite unfortunate, sort of on either side of 153 00:08:05,400 --> 00:08:08,800 Speaker 3: an election potentially. I was asked about it on Bloomberg 154 00:08:08,840 --> 00:08:11,559 Speaker 3: Television on our special around the Bank of England interest 155 00:08:11,640 --> 00:08:14,760 Speaker 3: rate decision. Very excitingly no change in interest rates, but 156 00:08:15,200 --> 00:08:17,360 Speaker 3: those of us with variable rate mortgages we at least 157 00:08:17,400 --> 00:08:23,880 Speaker 3: have prospect of potentially having a rate cut next But no, 158 00:08:23,920 --> 00:08:26,920 Speaker 3: because it's still bloody staying with it anyway. But I 159 00:08:26,920 --> 00:08:30,440 Speaker 3: think it's in a funny kind of way. Although the 160 00:08:30,480 --> 00:08:33,480 Speaker 3: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has to worry about 161 00:08:33,480 --> 00:08:35,839 Speaker 3: his own politics, the image and the fact that he's 162 00:08:35,840 --> 00:08:38,120 Speaker 3: had a lot of criticism, the fact that Labour's so 163 00:08:38,280 --> 00:08:41,040 Speaker 3: far ahead makes you feel that any decision the Bank 164 00:08:41,080 --> 00:08:43,560 Speaker 3: of England takes is not going to be considered to 165 00:08:43,600 --> 00:08:47,080 Speaker 3: be so politically decisive going into this election, whereas the 166 00:08:47,200 --> 00:08:50,560 Speaker 3: US it's quite a different story. Are one of our 167 00:08:50,600 --> 00:08:55,040 Speaker 3: best read opinion columns, alongside Adrian Obviously, John Author's joins 168 00:08:55,120 --> 00:08:57,000 Speaker 3: us Now from New York because actually your column this 169 00:08:57,040 --> 00:09:00,520 Speaker 3: week addressed the subject of whether or not pow, the 170 00:09:00,520 --> 00:09:03,240 Speaker 3: head of the US Central Bank would be playing politics 171 00:09:03,360 --> 00:09:06,120 Speaker 3: with monetary policy over the next six months. What do 172 00:09:06,160 --> 00:09:06,520 Speaker 3: you think. 173 00:09:07,040 --> 00:09:11,000 Speaker 6: I think, ultimately, given the utter intensity of the political 174 00:09:11,040 --> 00:09:13,880 Speaker 6: climate here at the moment, it's more or less impossible 175 00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:17,560 Speaker 6: for the Fed to do anything that might not have 176 00:09:17,679 --> 00:09:24,840 Speaker 6: a political impact. I think where the notion that Powell 177 00:09:24,920 --> 00:09:29,240 Speaker 6: was behaving particularly politically took hold was in the pivot 178 00:09:29,480 --> 00:09:34,400 Speaker 6: so called, particularly last December, when the whole language about 179 00:09:34,400 --> 00:09:37,760 Speaker 6: the possibility of rate cuts and the speed with which 180 00:09:37,760 --> 00:09:42,280 Speaker 6: they would want to cut suddenly changed very sharply. The 181 00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:45,720 Speaker 6: other point that people give to suggest that he is 182 00:09:45,840 --> 00:09:49,199 Speaker 6: tried to duce up the economy to help Biden was 183 00:09:49,240 --> 00:09:54,800 Speaker 6: actually from last week when the FED reduced qt quantitative tightening. 184 00:09:54,920 --> 00:09:59,200 Speaker 6: The amount by which it was actually selling bonds into 185 00:09:59,320 --> 00:10:03,640 Speaker 6: the market that was more than was expected. I think 186 00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:09,199 Speaker 6: you can probably account for them more by the normal 187 00:10:09,240 --> 00:10:13,319 Speaker 6: factors that would affect the Fed than by any particular 188 00:10:13,360 --> 00:10:17,200 Speaker 6: desire to help Joe Biden. Bearing in mind that Jay 189 00:10:17,280 --> 00:10:21,240 Speaker 6: Powell is actually a registered Republican who served in Republican administrations. 190 00:10:21,559 --> 00:10:25,040 Speaker 1: John just sketch for us what would be the behavior 191 00:10:25,360 --> 00:10:28,800 Speaker 1: by Pow that would incense and enrage a President Trump. 192 00:10:28,880 --> 00:10:32,800 Speaker 6: The most I think if he starts cutting rates now, 193 00:10:33,200 --> 00:10:36,640 Speaker 6: he is going to have to take a lot of 194 00:10:36,679 --> 00:10:41,080 Speaker 6: abuse from Donald Trump. Yes, because this is what they 195 00:10:41,080 --> 00:10:46,000 Speaker 6: have been braced for, that the Fed would cut before 196 00:10:46,200 --> 00:10:51,480 Speaker 6: it really was justified, to create more light at the 197 00:10:51,559 --> 00:10:55,480 Speaker 6: end of the tunnel, to cheer things up. I find this. 198 00:10:56,440 --> 00:10:59,560 Speaker 6: I can very easily believe that the Fed will make 199 00:10:59,559 --> 00:11:02,560 Speaker 6: a mistake, just as I can very easily believe that 200 00:11:02,600 --> 00:11:05,960 Speaker 6: the back of England could make a mistake. I cannot 201 00:11:05,960 --> 00:11:10,040 Speaker 6: imagine that any move would be made for political reasons, 202 00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:14,040 Speaker 6: and apart from anything else, We've all cited Milton Friedman 203 00:11:14,080 --> 00:11:16,360 Speaker 6: on the lags of monetary policy often enough over the 204 00:11:16,400 --> 00:11:20,760 Speaker 6: last few years of a rate cut now would have 205 00:11:21,040 --> 00:11:25,720 Speaker 6: a minimal impact on anybody's sense of the economy between 206 00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:26,520 Speaker 6: now and the election. 207 00:11:27,080 --> 00:11:30,920 Speaker 1: That's not really on the cards, is it right now? 208 00:11:31,679 --> 00:11:35,959 Speaker 6: What a rate cut or it is fair to say that. 209 00:11:36,080 --> 00:11:36,640 Speaker 4: There are. 210 00:11:38,200 --> 00:11:42,040 Speaker 6: If the Fed really wanted to cut rates, if it 211 00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:45,600 Speaker 6: was if the White House was breathing down the Fed's 212 00:11:45,679 --> 00:11:48,400 Speaker 6: neck in the way that Donald Trump very publicly breathed 213 00:11:48,480 --> 00:11:52,600 Speaker 6: down the Fed's neck four or five years ago, you 214 00:11:52,640 --> 00:11:57,800 Speaker 6: can definitely construct an excuse to start to start cutting rates. 215 00:11:57,800 --> 00:12:00,920 Speaker 6: The number of generally conservative common tators who say that 216 00:12:00,960 --> 00:12:03,959 Speaker 6: inflation is actually below two percent already, it's just because 217 00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:07,760 Speaker 6: of quirks in the way that housing inflation shelter inflation 218 00:12:07,880 --> 00:12:11,520 Speaker 6: is calculated, which is a rabbit hole I go down. 219 00:12:12,040 --> 00:12:15,200 Speaker 6: There are plenty of There are plenty of reputable people 220 00:12:15,320 --> 00:12:18,120 Speaker 6: making the argument that that is a much more of 221 00:12:18,120 --> 00:12:19,760 Speaker 6: a real problem than it appears. 222 00:12:20,040 --> 00:12:22,960 Speaker 3: You've hinted there to the irony of the criticism by Trump, 223 00:12:23,240 --> 00:12:26,679 Speaker 3: or the possible criticism by former President Trump, because a 224 00:12:26,760 --> 00:12:29,079 Speaker 3: lot of Republicans, including him as saying he wants to 225 00:12:29,120 --> 00:12:31,240 Speaker 3: get a new he wants to replace j. Powell if 226 00:12:31,240 --> 00:12:33,480 Speaker 3: he wins, so that we could then have someone who 227 00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:34,439 Speaker 3: cuts rates more. 228 00:12:34,520 --> 00:12:43,840 Speaker 6: If you want to analyze Donald Trump's economic policies consistency. 229 00:12:43,240 --> 00:12:46,720 Speaker 4: There is, yes, but we try all the time. 230 00:12:47,520 --> 00:12:50,280 Speaker 6: But I do think in the current environment there's another 231 00:12:50,280 --> 00:12:53,679 Speaker 6: one of these many areas where there's where it's quite frustrating. 232 00:12:53,760 --> 00:12:56,920 Speaker 6: There are valid arguments to be made about central bank independence. 233 00:12:57,440 --> 00:13:00,000 Speaker 6: Paul Tucker, the ex Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, 234 00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:02,440 Speaker 6: write a book called I Think It was Unelected Power 235 00:13:02,559 --> 00:13:06,840 Speaker 6: something like that about ways in which at the moment 236 00:13:06,920 --> 00:13:10,400 Speaker 6: central banks probably are too independent of the of the 237 00:13:10,400 --> 00:13:14,480 Speaker 6: political process. Given how important monetary policy is, it's quite 238 00:13:14,520 --> 00:13:19,560 Speaker 6: strange that there is so little democratic direct input into it, 239 00:13:20,320 --> 00:13:23,920 Speaker 6: so that there are very valid arguments to be had 240 00:13:24,040 --> 00:13:28,560 Speaker 6: about this. It's just those valance expressed in this ugly debate. 241 00:13:28,720 --> 00:13:31,040 Speaker 3: So that's a tip to Donald Trump if he wants 242 00:13:31,080 --> 00:13:33,800 Speaker 3: to have good reason in arguments and someone helping him 243 00:13:33,840 --> 00:13:37,079 Speaker 3: make the case for reducing the fed's independence, you can 244 00:13:37,160 --> 00:13:38,640 Speaker 3: call you. It sounds like John. 245 00:13:39,240 --> 00:13:39,960 Speaker 4: Or Paul Tucker. 246 00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:43,600 Speaker 5: Yes, yes, people seem to be much more worried about 247 00:13:43,600 --> 00:13:46,559 Speaker 5: inflation than the underlying figures seem to indicate. And I 248 00:13:46,640 --> 00:13:49,120 Speaker 5: wonder if those people are so completely crazy, because there 249 00:13:49,160 --> 00:13:52,360 Speaker 5: seem to be an enormous number of hidden charges, hidden 250 00:13:52,400 --> 00:13:55,000 Speaker 5: costs that hit people when they actually come to pay 251 00:13:55,000 --> 00:13:55,920 Speaker 5: their bills. 252 00:13:56,480 --> 00:13:58,720 Speaker 3: Do you sound like your people when you say. 253 00:13:59,600 --> 00:14:03,960 Speaker 5: I read presents people perceive you I represent the ordinary man. 254 00:14:06,600 --> 00:14:10,320 Speaker 6: Okay, we do have Michigan, a University of Michigan, which 255 00:14:10,360 --> 00:14:14,200 Speaker 6: does huge amounts of research on consumer sentiment consumer opinion 256 00:14:15,400 --> 00:14:19,080 Speaker 6: does and has for the last few years, given data 257 00:14:19,160 --> 00:14:23,320 Speaker 6: for people who separate data for people describing themselves as Democrats, Republicans, 258 00:14:23,320 --> 00:14:29,880 Speaker 6: and independents, and the divergence is quite stunning at this point, 259 00:14:30,040 --> 00:14:34,480 Speaker 6: higher than it's ever been before. And Republicans think inflation 260 00:14:34,600 --> 00:14:38,840 Speaker 6: is higher than Democrats think it's lower. Republicans think we're 261 00:14:38,840 --> 00:14:41,400 Speaker 6: all going to hell in a handbasket, Democrats don't, in 262 00:14:41,760 --> 00:14:45,680 Speaker 6: a quite dramatic fashion in a way that does suggest 263 00:14:45,840 --> 00:14:51,680 Speaker 6: that the narrative is framing perception in both on both wings, 264 00:14:51,680 --> 00:14:55,120 Speaker 6: but perhaps more dramatically because the Republican. Whatever else you 265 00:14:55,120 --> 00:14:56,920 Speaker 6: think about Donald Trump, he's very good at getting his 266 00:14:56,960 --> 00:14:59,840 Speaker 6: message across. People are very unhappy about it. 267 00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:04,160 Speaker 1: Last question, just to bring your attention to the United Kingdom, 268 00:15:04,520 --> 00:15:06,720 Speaker 1: can you give me the month when you think that 269 00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:08,000 Speaker 1: Andrew Bailey starts cutting. 270 00:15:08,040 --> 00:15:09,400 Speaker 3: We're running out of time, so this is going to 271 00:15:09,440 --> 00:15:11,760 Speaker 3: be a short one, but we just need to lay 272 00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:13,040 Speaker 3: our bets obviously rich month. 273 00:15:14,280 --> 00:15:16,600 Speaker 6: From this side of the Atlantic, it looks to me 274 00:15:16,680 --> 00:15:20,160 Speaker 6: as though he could go next time in June. I 275 00:15:20,200 --> 00:15:25,800 Speaker 6: think I think you were commenting earlier if if there 276 00:15:25,840 --> 00:15:27,840 Speaker 6: is some way in which the Conservatives are going to 277 00:15:27,880 --> 00:15:31,440 Speaker 6: pull out this election, it's not going to be anything 278 00:15:31,480 --> 00:15:34,440 Speaker 6: the Bank of England does in either direction, and to 279 00:15:34,480 --> 00:15:39,000 Speaker 6: some extent that he's really, really exempted from some of 280 00:15:39,000 --> 00:15:41,520 Speaker 6: the political pressures that Powell is under, and he also 281 00:15:41,680 --> 00:15:45,160 Speaker 6: has a weaker economy that for whom for which the 282 00:15:45,200 --> 00:15:49,640 Speaker 6: case for rate cuts is stronger. So my initial take 283 00:15:49,680 --> 00:15:53,640 Speaker 6: looking at what he said today is that he's definitely 284 00:15:54,080 --> 00:15:57,200 Speaker 6: nudging people towards expecting a cut earlier. So may well 285 00:15:57,200 --> 00:15:58,080 Speaker 6: be June. 286 00:15:57,960 --> 00:15:59,640 Speaker 3: All right, place your bets well. That also puts you 287 00:15:59,680 --> 00:16:03,600 Speaker 3: in line with our estimable chief UK economist, Dan had 288 00:16:03,600 --> 00:16:07,040 Speaker 3: some Bloomberg economics, i should say, in the Fed's to Feds, 289 00:16:07,200 --> 00:16:09,240 Speaker 3: or at least again pointing to a bit of research 290 00:16:09,280 --> 00:16:11,480 Speaker 3: that that Bloomberg did. We have David Wilcox, who was 291 00:16:11,480 --> 00:16:14,720 Speaker 3: the chief economist at the FED for many years, now 292 00:16:14,760 --> 00:16:17,600 Speaker 3: working for US as an advisor, and he actually looked 293 00:16:17,640 --> 00:16:20,280 Speaker 3: at how the weather just taking the sort of standard 294 00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:22,760 Speaker 3: there's a tailor rule which is too complicated to go into, 295 00:16:22,760 --> 00:16:24,720 Speaker 3: but a sort of basic policy rule that the FED 296 00:16:24,800 --> 00:16:27,400 Speaker 3: is if some version of the FED usually follows. And 297 00:16:27,440 --> 00:16:30,360 Speaker 3: he looks back and says, have they departed from that rule, 298 00:16:30,480 --> 00:16:33,360 Speaker 3: that sort of mechanical rule more or less than usual 299 00:16:33,480 --> 00:16:36,160 Speaker 3: in the year before an election, And they actually find 300 00:16:35,480 --> 00:16:39,320 Speaker 3: they seem to have stuck more closely to that rule 301 00:16:39,680 --> 00:16:42,240 Speaker 3: in the twelve months before elections than at other times, 302 00:16:42,320 --> 00:16:44,920 Speaker 3: which is an interesting I guess that's another thing that 303 00:16:44,920 --> 00:16:47,160 Speaker 3: the Fed could be putting in people's face as well. 304 00:16:47,160 --> 00:16:50,880 Speaker 3: For how many elections going back, going back a good 305 00:16:50,920 --> 00:16:53,720 Speaker 3: twenty five thirty years. I think he finds that he 306 00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:55,840 Speaker 3: was a little bit. It was a bit too tight 307 00:16:56,480 --> 00:16:59,960 Speaker 3: relative to that rule with Bill Clinton's ninety six real 308 00:17:00,000 --> 00:17:03,400 Speaker 3: election campaign, and a bit too loose leading up to 309 00:17:03,480 --> 00:17:07,119 Speaker 3: George W. Bush's re election campaign. But anyway, there's no 310 00:17:07,240 --> 00:17:13,359 Speaker 3: we can't find it in the data. Suffice to sayeteen. 311 00:17:11,440 --> 00:17:13,639 Speaker 6: Ninety six would have been one of the one of 312 00:17:13,680 --> 00:17:17,879 Speaker 6: the examples of the economy going quite unreally well, it didn't. 313 00:17:17,960 --> 00:17:19,919 Speaker 6: It didn't do too much harm. If they were if 314 00:17:19,920 --> 00:17:22,159 Speaker 6: they heard a little on the side of conservatives. 315 00:17:21,800 --> 00:17:33,600 Speaker 3: Then no, exactly exactly, Thanks John, Thank you. So I 316 00:17:33,600 --> 00:17:36,680 Speaker 3: do think that set us up well for the Ben 317 00:17:36,760 --> 00:17:40,399 Speaker 3: Page interview, which Adrian sadly you missed. Remind me of 318 00:17:40,440 --> 00:17:42,800 Speaker 3: your excuse again, it's. 319 00:17:42,359 --> 00:17:44,080 Speaker 5: Very far from being an excuse. I got to my 320 00:17:44,200 --> 00:17:47,560 Speaker 5: train station. I got to my train station in Petersfield. 321 00:17:47,560 --> 00:17:50,200 Speaker 5: I noticed that there were no cars there. I waited 322 00:17:50,240 --> 00:17:51,639 Speaker 5: for the train for a bit. There were no trains, 323 00:17:51,640 --> 00:17:54,680 Speaker 5: and then I finally found a uniformed person and I said, 324 00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:56,879 Speaker 5: when it's the next train? He said, it's not until Saturdays. 325 00:17:57,320 --> 00:17:59,320 Speaker 3: You know, you work for a news organization that's aware 326 00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:01,520 Speaker 3: of things going on. Without even going down to the station, 327 00:18:01,600 --> 00:18:03,280 Speaker 3: you could have found out there was a strike. 328 00:18:03,400 --> 00:18:06,600 Speaker 5: I didn't listen to any rival news organizations that morning, 329 00:18:07,080 --> 00:18:07,680 Speaker 5: or he could. 330 00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:09,919 Speaker 1: Have walked here. Okay, So while Adrian was stuck on 331 00:18:09,920 --> 00:18:13,320 Speaker 1: his train platform, Stephanie and I were joined by Ben Paige, 332 00:18:13,359 --> 00:18:17,400 Speaker 1: who is CEO of Global CEO no Less of IPSOS, 333 00:18:17,520 --> 00:18:20,080 Speaker 1: the polling organization which many of you will know about 334 00:18:20,200 --> 00:18:23,959 Speaker 1: very well. With him, we talked about dissatisfaction amongst voters 335 00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:27,080 Speaker 1: in the US, the UK and Europe and why he 336 00:18:27,119 --> 00:18:29,960 Speaker 1: thinks that's translated into more support for the far right 337 00:18:30,160 --> 00:18:33,920 Speaker 1: or nationalist candidates instead of an active socialist agenda. 338 00:18:35,400 --> 00:18:38,200 Speaker 2: There are places like France where there is a socialist 339 00:18:38,240 --> 00:18:41,520 Speaker 2: party and then they picked up some votes. Melanchean did 340 00:18:41,600 --> 00:18:43,720 Speaker 2: quite well last time, but I think your broader point 341 00:18:43,760 --> 00:18:46,000 Speaker 2: is absolutely right, and I would put it down to 342 00:18:46,080 --> 00:18:51,080 Speaker 2: immigration and demography. The last time people were feeling this squeezed, 343 00:18:51,160 --> 00:18:55,800 Speaker 2: we hadn't had these cumulative waves of migration from the 344 00:18:55,880 --> 00:18:58,800 Speaker 2: south to the north, and the change that people have 345 00:18:58,960 --> 00:19:01,800 Speaker 2: now observed. Also, of course you've got aging populations in 346 00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:05,159 Speaker 2: many western countries and in Japan. Italy going to be, 347 00:19:05,240 --> 00:19:08,720 Speaker 2: of course, the oldest country on earth, almost guaranteed no 348 00:19:08,800 --> 00:19:10,920 Speaker 2: more Italians at all than one hundred and seventy years. 349 00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:13,639 Speaker 2: If they don't sort themselves out, they're literally become extinct 350 00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:16,399 Speaker 2: on current trends. So I think all of that means 351 00:19:16,400 --> 00:19:18,520 Speaker 2: that you've got a sort of in some ways a 352 00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:23,600 Speaker 2: scapegoat for the situation. People feel unsettled. And of course, 353 00:19:23,640 --> 00:19:27,679 Speaker 2: actually even before the global financial crash in two thousand 354 00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:30,280 Speaker 2: and eight, you were seeing the overall GDP grow, but 355 00:19:30,440 --> 00:19:32,960 Speaker 2: not GDP per capita because partly because we were just 356 00:19:33,000 --> 00:19:35,480 Speaker 2: importing lots of people, so the pie was growing, but 357 00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:38,000 Speaker 2: actually we were also importing people as well. So I 358 00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:40,439 Speaker 2: think all of this means that it's a different situation 359 00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:44,800 Speaker 2: than if populations were just stable, and therefore the appeal 360 00:19:44,840 --> 00:19:45,760 Speaker 2: of the right that it's. 361 00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:46,560 Speaker 4: Someone else's fault. 362 00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:50,480 Speaker 2: There are minorities we can identify that are disrupting things. 363 00:19:50,760 --> 00:19:54,040 Speaker 2: They're the answer those simple messages which can cut through 364 00:19:54,400 --> 00:19:57,920 Speaker 2: and when people visibly notice change that's when you see 365 00:19:57,920 --> 00:20:00,800 Speaker 2: this sort of unease. And in in fact, we've measured 366 00:20:00,840 --> 00:20:05,200 Speaker 2: in Britain something called the Hirpindel Index of racial heterogeneity, 367 00:20:05,680 --> 00:20:08,359 Speaker 2: which is I know, I didn't even know what it 368 00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:10,760 Speaker 2: was called. We just observed it literally in the data 369 00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:14,760 Speaker 2: and it's basically how heterogeneous racially a population is. But 370 00:20:14,800 --> 00:20:18,399 Speaker 2: basically the faster the rate of change, the more basic 371 00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:21,359 Speaker 2: crudely unhappy people were. So if you remember back to 372 00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:24,720 Speaker 2: Barking and Dagenham, this is very parochial, but two thousand 373 00:20:24,720 --> 00:20:27,280 Speaker 2: and eight the BNP won in every single ward they 374 00:20:27,280 --> 00:20:29,320 Speaker 2: stood in and when we ran it through the maths, 375 00:20:29,359 --> 00:20:32,239 Speaker 2: Barking and Dagenham had been a white island in the 376 00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:34,680 Speaker 2: rest of London because of the Ford Motor Plant. Those 377 00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:38,359 Speaker 2: families that had spent their lives there, and gradually Black Londoners, 378 00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:40,320 Speaker 2: of whom there are plenty, had noticed that there was 379 00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:42,760 Speaker 2: plenty of cheap housing in Barking and Dagenham, so they 380 00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:46,240 Speaker 2: started but moving there and that's when at that point 381 00:20:46,320 --> 00:20:49,399 Speaker 2: you get this reaction. So I'm using that as a 382 00:20:49,400 --> 00:20:52,119 Speaker 2: sort of dramatic extreme example, and of course at the 383 00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:54,760 Speaker 2: next election Labour took those seats back, but it shows 384 00:20:55,240 --> 00:20:58,040 Speaker 2: that people are susceptible, and so if they're feeling under 385 00:20:58,040 --> 00:21:02,040 Speaker 2: pressure and they noticed that migration is changing the country, 386 00:21:02,280 --> 00:21:05,080 Speaker 2: they will be more willing to listen to right wingers 387 00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:06,280 Speaker 2: about scapegoats, etc. 388 00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:09,440 Speaker 1: I'm interested in this idea. I don't want to be parochial, 389 00:21:09,480 --> 00:21:11,960 Speaker 1: but nonetheless, if you've got a Kirstarma government coming in 390 00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:13,800 Speaker 1: the UK or your polls. 391 00:21:13,520 --> 00:21:15,240 Speaker 4: Suggest so, yes, absolutely. 392 00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:20,000 Speaker 1: Firstly, how does a left wing government ride that trend 393 00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:23,000 Speaker 1: in your opinion? And secondly, I'm just wondering whether we're 394 00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:25,479 Speaker 1: moving into this period where you have a lot of 395 00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:29,040 Speaker 1: one term governments because people come in, they are there's 396 00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:31,439 Speaker 1: a sea change, there's a swing in opinion, and then 397 00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:34,359 Speaker 1: they just can't ride the beast because the dissatisfaction is 398 00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:35,919 Speaker 1: just so volatile. 399 00:21:36,040 --> 00:21:38,320 Speaker 2: Well, I think Allegli, you're right to pick up that 400 00:21:38,359 --> 00:21:41,159 Speaker 2: it's highly likely at the moment that Labor will be 401 00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:44,720 Speaker 2: deeply unpopular eighteen months to twenty four months after they 402 00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:45,680 Speaker 2: win the election. 403 00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:47,200 Speaker 1: That long, and that's not a facetious question. 404 00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:50,800 Speaker 2: It's interesting because they may be able to if they 405 00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:53,760 Speaker 2: can come up with enough messaging about what is going 406 00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:56,359 Speaker 2: to happen. Then one of the things that I always 407 00:21:56,400 --> 00:21:58,520 Speaker 2: find very striking is if we go back to the 408 00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:02,280 Speaker 2: nineteen ninety seven wins and he puts in place spending 409 00:22:02,320 --> 00:22:05,399 Speaker 2: plans with Brown that Clark said were just unmanageable and 410 00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:09,200 Speaker 2: unstickable to But they do it because people's expectations were 411 00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:11,920 Speaker 2: so high. And of course there was also economic growth, 412 00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:15,159 Speaker 2: and the economy was picking up in nineteen ninety seven, 413 00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:19,040 Speaker 2: so public services didn't improve to start in the much 414 00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:21,320 Speaker 2: in the first four years, but everybody knew the money 415 00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:24,040 Speaker 2: was coming. The cavalry were coming down the hill, and 416 00:22:24,080 --> 00:22:26,800 Speaker 2: they were willing to suspend disbelief. So there is a 417 00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:29,600 Speaker 2: period that they will have a grace period. The question is, 418 00:22:29,600 --> 00:22:31,480 Speaker 2: and I think you're right to ask the question, how 419 00:22:31,520 --> 00:22:33,920 Speaker 2: long will it be? I think it's not so much 420 00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:37,800 Speaker 2: strong man, strong woman. Let's think of Italy. People are 421 00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:42,080 Speaker 2: grasping around for solutions to this massive macro problem that 422 00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:44,640 Speaker 2: we can see in the West and indeed in Latin America, 423 00:22:44,840 --> 00:22:47,520 Speaker 2: the loss of the future. This idea that nine out 424 00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:50,840 Speaker 2: of ten people in most of these countries believe, looking 425 00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:52,920 Speaker 2: back at the last fifty or sixty years, that the 426 00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:56,400 Speaker 2: normal state of affairs is the next generation is richer 427 00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:58,680 Speaker 2: than the current one, and now over the last two 428 00:22:58,680 --> 00:22:59,920 Speaker 2: decades have seen that turned. 429 00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:02,919 Speaker 3: I guess we should always ask ourselves, is it really 430 00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:06,120 Speaker 3: so different? Is everyone always unhappy with this state of. 431 00:23:06,080 --> 00:23:06,840 Speaker 4: Political It's fair. 432 00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:09,480 Speaker 2: You're absolutely right to say that people are always unhappy. 433 00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:12,120 Speaker 2: And even in I think nineteen ninety seven, forty six 434 00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:14,159 Speaker 2: percent thought the country was going to the dogs, but 435 00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:17,280 Speaker 2: the figure is now seventy six percent. People have always 436 00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:21,080 Speaker 2: believed that politicians are duplicitous. You remember the wonderful nineteen 437 00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:23,800 Speaker 2: forty four survey where the British were asked, do you 438 00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:26,359 Speaker 2: believe that the politicians in Parliament are acting in their 439 00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:29,359 Speaker 2: own interests, in the interests of the country, or in 440 00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:33,280 Speaker 2: the interests of their political party? And in nineteen forty four, 441 00:23:33,320 --> 00:23:36,919 Speaker 2: as we fought the Germans in Europe with a coalition government, 442 00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:39,119 Speaker 2: only thirty five percent believe the politians are acting in 443 00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:40,840 Speaker 2: the interest of the country. But the point I would 444 00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:42,679 Speaker 2: make now is that let us fall into six percent. 445 00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:46,439 Speaker 2: And so trust in politicians has never been high, but 446 00:23:46,480 --> 00:23:48,320 Speaker 2: it is now the lowest we've ever measured, and we're 447 00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:52,760 Speaker 2: spontaneously now getting in Britain, and I think in many countries, 448 00:23:53,119 --> 00:23:54,840 Speaker 2: people just saying when I ask them what the biggest 449 00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:58,359 Speaker 2: problem is. They don't say inflation, they don't say public services. 450 00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:00,440 Speaker 2: They say it's just useless politics. 451 00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:01,800 Speaker 4: And I think that. 452 00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:04,399 Speaker 2: But the challenge for the politicians is that trying to 453 00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:08,720 Speaker 2: please our populations that they now serve is far more 454 00:24:08,800 --> 00:24:12,560 Speaker 2: challenging as an audience and a group of people than say, 455 00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:15,240 Speaker 2: the populations that they were trying to please fifty or 456 00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:19,520 Speaker 2: sixty years ago. Because of fragmentation, because of just a 457 00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:22,959 Speaker 2: demographic change, and because of income distribution, show that there 458 00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:25,560 Speaker 2: are now many rich people that just weren't who weren't 459 00:24:25,560 --> 00:24:28,080 Speaker 2: there in large quantities in the past. So for in all, 460 00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:31,040 Speaker 2: for all those reasons, it's much harder to be a politician. 461 00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:32,440 Speaker 3: I'm sort of obsessed with this, but the fact that 462 00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:35,119 Speaker 3: we spend all our time looking at billionaires on television, 463 00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:39,600 Speaker 3: that they're so visible and they're so overrepresented in dramas, 464 00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:42,800 Speaker 3: that I think it's much more part of people's lives, 465 00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:44,840 Speaker 3: this kind of super rich phenomenon, which as you say, 466 00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:47,600 Speaker 3: was not necessarily a feature of previous eras. 467 00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:50,919 Speaker 1: Don't augment your earlier question, Stephanew I was really struck 468 00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:53,600 Speaker 1: in your research where it's in July nineteen seventy eight 469 00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:55,560 Speaker 1: forty percent thought Britain was the worst place to live. 470 00:24:56,160 --> 00:24:58,240 Speaker 1: July twenty three, that goes to seventy six. But the 471 00:24:58,280 --> 00:25:00,359 Speaker 1: interesting thing for me was that in May twenty that 472 00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:02,800 Speaker 1: was already at seventy one percent. Yes, because if I 473 00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:05,000 Speaker 1: think back to some of the elections I've covered, we 474 00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:07,399 Speaker 1: used to talk about apathy. Yeah, right, and now we 475 00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:09,280 Speaker 1: it feels that we don't talk about apathy anymore. We 476 00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:10,479 Speaker 1: talk about maybe anger. 477 00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:12,480 Speaker 2: I think the other point you make, though, that already 478 00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:16,360 Speaker 2: by two thousand and eight people were dissatisfied, is absolutely right. 479 00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:19,320 Speaker 2: It's this failure of real wage growth again in Britain, 480 00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:22,320 Speaker 2: but in many European countries and bits of the US 481 00:25:22,359 --> 00:25:25,200 Speaker 2: where there was a long period of no real wage growth, 482 00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:28,880 Speaker 2: and that's now cumulatively starting to have I think an effect. 483 00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:34,120 Speaker 3: We talk about parties people feeling not represented, but actually, 484 00:25:34,280 --> 00:25:37,080 Speaker 3: compared to some of the other European countries or even 485 00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:40,280 Speaker 3: the US that you look at in some of your polling, 486 00:25:41,280 --> 00:25:43,960 Speaker 3: quite a high number of people feel represented by one 487 00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:45,960 Speaker 3: of the two main parties. In the UK, I know 488 00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:49,840 Speaker 3: it was sixty nine percent versus only fifty five in France. 489 00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:53,600 Speaker 3: The sort of disenfranchised group is actually larger in quite 490 00:25:53,640 --> 00:25:54,280 Speaker 3: a lot of other things. 491 00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:54,800 Speaker 4: Yes, we should. 492 00:25:54,840 --> 00:26:00,000 Speaker 2: It's always worth remembering that Britain is only really moderately unhappy. 493 00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:04,680 Speaker 2: It feels we feel like, oh god, actually when you start, 494 00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:07,440 Speaker 2: it's always good to have some international contexts and on that. 495 00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:09,840 Speaker 2: If you want to really look for real misery, look 496 00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:12,960 Speaker 2: at South Africa and parts of Latin America, where the 497 00:26:13,040 --> 00:26:16,159 Speaker 2: rising middle classes saw a more prosperous future which has 498 00:26:16,400 --> 00:26:19,760 Speaker 2: then been snatched away from them, and that is where 499 00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:23,359 Speaker 2: you're seeing people are dying in riots in every single week, 500 00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:27,440 Speaker 2: which again people describe London as a sort of unlivable city, 501 00:26:27,520 --> 00:26:30,080 Speaker 2: et cetera. Frankly, come on. So that's why I think 502 00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:33,439 Speaker 2: some perspective is important. But nevertheless, for voters here, for 503 00:26:33,640 --> 00:26:37,400 Speaker 2: wealthy voters in the United States, by any international standard, 504 00:26:37,520 --> 00:26:39,600 Speaker 2: there is still a lot of discontent, and it is 505 00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:41,439 Speaker 2: much greater than in the past. 506 00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:45,320 Speaker 3: One argument that's sometimes made to me in France as 507 00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:47,320 Speaker 3: they look, for example, as they look ahead to the 508 00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:50,000 Speaker 3: next presidential election and there's obviously quite a strong chance 509 00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:54,120 Speaker 3: of Marine La Penn winning the presidency on the current polling, 510 00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:59,160 Speaker 3: they will say, you've inoculated yourselves in the UK by Brexit, 511 00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:02,040 Speaker 3: a combination of Brexit and Jeremy Corbyn. The sort of 512 00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:06,600 Speaker 3: extremities have already been attempted and have now been discredited, 513 00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:10,240 Speaker 3: and as a result we have what looks compared to that, yes, 514 00:27:10,600 --> 00:27:14,119 Speaker 3: like a slightly more kind of somber choice in this election. 515 00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:16,800 Speaker 3: When you look at the polling and the sort of 516 00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:21,840 Speaker 3: longer term effect of Brexit, has it changed people's view 517 00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:23,400 Speaker 3: of kind of radical answers. 518 00:27:24,119 --> 00:27:25,880 Speaker 4: I'm not sure that I would put it that way. 519 00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:29,080 Speaker 2: They just want competence and whether that sort of somebody 520 00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:31,119 Speaker 2: can come up with radical solutions that they appear to 521 00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:34,280 Speaker 2: be able to execute competently. Actually, you could argue Brexit 522 00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:36,480 Speaker 2: was in some ways a radical solution. Whether it was 523 00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:39,840 Speaker 2: executed competently we can argue about. I think you could say, 524 00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:42,640 Speaker 2: therefore that if you compare that to the situation in France, 525 00:27:42,720 --> 00:27:45,679 Speaker 2: the French haven't yet done something that extreme. I think 526 00:27:45,720 --> 00:27:48,919 Speaker 2: the question is whether the center holds in France. And 527 00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:51,200 Speaker 2: this because of the one of the things I admire 528 00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:53,600 Speaker 2: about the French system, and I think I believe that 529 00:27:53,640 --> 00:27:55,719 Speaker 2: in Britain if we had this on the Brexit voit 530 00:27:55,800 --> 00:27:58,880 Speaker 2: we probably wouldn't have left, is that they have a. 531 00:27:58,840 --> 00:27:59,640 Speaker 4: Two round thing. 532 00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:02,640 Speaker 2: You may get an outright winner the first time round, 533 00:28:02,680 --> 00:28:05,880 Speaker 2: but you probably won't. And then at this point suddenly 534 00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:08,320 Speaker 2: everybody comes back. And we saw it with Marie Lea 535 00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:11,960 Speaker 2: Penn's father two decades ago. They didn't bother voting in 536 00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:13,719 Speaker 2: the first round. Hang on a minute, it's that it's 537 00:28:13,840 --> 00:28:16,240 Speaker 2: the Penn and then finally they come back in and vote. 538 00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:16,920 Speaker 4: That is true. 539 00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:19,639 Speaker 3: It is that view that has a supporter has allowed 540 00:28:19,760 --> 00:28:22,920 Speaker 3: Macron to win, certainly to win reelection. 541 00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:25,359 Speaker 2: Even though he's not particularly popular, so I think, but 542 00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:28,440 Speaker 2: of course it's who's going to replace Macron? But I think, yes, 543 00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:31,800 Speaker 2: let's not write off the center yet. 544 00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:35,560 Speaker 3: When you're talking about what can government do, or when 545 00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:39,160 Speaker 3: we naturally think what are the ways that an incoming 546 00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:41,520 Speaker 3: labor government or any government who wants to change things 547 00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:43,040 Speaker 3: around can deliver? 548 00:28:43,600 --> 00:28:44,240 Speaker 4: I guess what. 549 00:28:44,280 --> 00:28:46,520 Speaker 3: Makes me nervous When I look at the data. You 550 00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:48,760 Speaker 3: can see this in the US, even when you have 551 00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:51,240 Speaker 3: delivered on some of the things that people say is 552 00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:54,840 Speaker 3: important to them. Wages that have grown faster than inflation, growth, 553 00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:59,440 Speaker 3: employment growth, we've seen that in the US, But we 554 00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:03,600 Speaker 3: actually see people not believe in those things if they're 555 00:29:03,880 --> 00:29:07,240 Speaker 3: not already Democrat if they're not already supporting Biden. And 556 00:29:07,280 --> 00:29:09,960 Speaker 3: it's this kind of idea of value based facts or 557 00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:14,520 Speaker 3: belief based facts, that your beliefs about the world stem 558 00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:17,000 Speaker 3: from your political views rather than the other way around. 559 00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:21,200 Speaker 3: Is that something that's changed in your lifetime as a Polster. 560 00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:23,680 Speaker 2: Absolutely, and I think you can definitely see it in 561 00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:25,880 Speaker 2: the United States. If you look at the values of 562 00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:29,120 Speaker 2: Republicans and Democrats in the nineteen nineties, you can see 563 00:29:29,120 --> 00:29:31,480 Speaker 2: that they're like two sort of mountains, but they're quite 564 00:29:31,520 --> 00:29:34,400 Speaker 2: close to each other. And over the last thirty years 565 00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:38,720 Speaker 2: those have progressively moved apart. And basically, if your Republican 566 00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:41,160 Speaker 2: guns must be good and that gun control is bad, 567 00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:43,440 Speaker 2: and if you're a Democrat, even when you show people 568 00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:46,000 Speaker 2: evidence one way or the other, you show people biased evdances, 569 00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:49,200 Speaker 2: they just they will follow their political beliefs. Britain hasn't 570 00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:52,040 Speaker 2: seen the same. We are not as polarized as America. 571 00:29:52,040 --> 00:29:55,400 Speaker 2: We're more fragmented, i would say, than polarized in the UK. 572 00:29:55,680 --> 00:29:57,200 Speaker 4: What's the difference, It's. 573 00:29:57,040 --> 00:30:00,560 Speaker 2: Just been America is your Republican or Democrat. It's just 574 00:30:00,600 --> 00:30:03,480 Speaker 2: a bit more wanced. And that actually what the first 575 00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:06,600 Speaker 2: past the post system is doing in Britain is keeping 576 00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:09,800 Speaker 2: together two parties that probably if we were in Europe, 577 00:30:10,120 --> 00:30:14,040 Speaker 2: would have fractured into four parties. And that's why Macron 578 00:30:14,120 --> 00:30:16,200 Speaker 2: was able to just wipe out the left wing and 579 00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:19,120 Speaker 2: the Republicans in France, because that's what the system does. 580 00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:22,880 Speaker 2: Our system is designed to preserve the two parts. 581 00:30:23,040 --> 00:30:23,960 Speaker 4: More it's not. 582 00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:28,080 Speaker 3: True in other parts outside the US. Does that mean 583 00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:30,240 Speaker 3: there is at least a bit more hope that an 584 00:30:30,760 --> 00:30:36,720 Speaker 3: effective politician could actually persuade voters that things have got better? 585 00:30:36,920 --> 00:30:40,480 Speaker 2: I think some making things better is obviously very challenging, 586 00:30:41,120 --> 00:30:42,200 Speaker 2: but we know what to do. 587 00:30:42,280 --> 00:30:44,320 Speaker 4: We know we need to invest in infrastructure. 588 00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:46,400 Speaker 2: We know we need to build houses in a way 589 00:30:46,400 --> 00:30:48,600 Speaker 2: that we haven't built them before. We know we need 590 00:30:48,600 --> 00:30:51,200 Speaker 2: to do things on skills. I think you could come 591 00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:53,200 Speaker 2: in with a story to build those things and people 592 00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:54,840 Speaker 2: willing will swing behind it. 593 00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:55,080 Speaker 1: Well. 594 00:30:55,080 --> 00:30:58,720 Speaker 2: I would say that people's fundamental beliefs in the welfare state, 595 00:30:58,920 --> 00:31:02,520 Speaker 2: in public services, in the NHS, so to be honest, 596 00:31:02,520 --> 00:31:05,360 Speaker 2: are always there. By twenty ten, they had bought the 597 00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:08,920 Speaker 2: argument that we needed to save money, but it rapidly 598 00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:12,959 Speaker 2: after austerity, they rapidly shifted back again. And now, of 599 00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:15,800 Speaker 2: course we've got the effects of a lack of capital 600 00:31:15,800 --> 00:31:20,240 Speaker 2: investment in public services screaming at us. And so the 601 00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:22,680 Speaker 2: question is who and how is it going to be 602 00:31:22,720 --> 00:31:24,560 Speaker 2: paid for? And that's where I don't think either of 603 00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:26,800 Speaker 2: the parties, the Tories have set up a big bear 604 00:31:26,840 --> 00:31:29,480 Speaker 2: trap with science bear trap next to it for labor, 605 00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:32,080 Speaker 2: and labor are just keeping stum and saying, well, somehow 606 00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:35,960 Speaker 2: do reform without spending more money, when everybody, actually most 607 00:31:36,000 --> 00:31:37,880 Speaker 2: people know that more money needs to be spent, and 608 00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:39,479 Speaker 2: probably some of it will have to come from more 609 00:31:39,520 --> 00:31:42,200 Speaker 2: affluent over fifties, which is not. 610 00:31:42,160 --> 00:31:43,560 Speaker 4: Something the authologician wants to. 611 00:31:43,560 --> 00:31:48,400 Speaker 3: All the orthodoxy on what's politically it's possible, what's going 612 00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:52,080 Speaker 3: to get you hurt in the ballot box is very 613 00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:54,320 Speaker 3: similar to what it would have been ten or twenty 614 00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:54,800 Speaker 3: years ago. 615 00:31:55,080 --> 00:31:56,800 Speaker 2: I tend to agree that you have to show that 616 00:31:56,840 --> 00:31:59,400 Speaker 2: you're going to be fiscally responsible, that you're going to 617 00:31:59,400 --> 00:32:02,560 Speaker 2: be competent if you can somehow do it and show 618 00:32:02,600 --> 00:32:06,239 Speaker 2: and the issue is always really hypothecation. People believe in 619 00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:09,720 Speaker 2: public spending for public services in Britain, but they have 620 00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:11,600 Speaker 2: to believe that you're going to do it, that you 621 00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:15,320 Speaker 2: can do it competently. It's why Blair's pseudo increase in 622 00:32:15,400 --> 00:32:17,560 Speaker 2: National insurance, which, of course, as we know, National insurance 623 00:32:17,560 --> 00:32:20,280 Speaker 2: doesn't really go on the things that it's advertised to 624 00:32:20,280 --> 00:32:21,360 Speaker 2: go on necessarily on. 625 00:32:21,400 --> 00:32:23,480 Speaker 4: The Treasury hate it, yeah, but it was it was 626 00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:24,920 Speaker 4: popular with the public. Put up. 627 00:32:24,960 --> 00:32:28,120 Speaker 2: He put a penny on income tax on taxes, effectively 628 00:32:28,360 --> 00:32:31,440 Speaker 2: to pay for something specifically that people knew needed money. 629 00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:34,320 Speaker 2: And so you could probably get away with saying that 630 00:32:34,360 --> 00:32:37,760 Speaker 2: we've now examined the books. The NHS needs more money. 631 00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:40,280 Speaker 2: You know, it needs more money. We're an aging population. 632 00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:42,400 Speaker 2: We can all these medical advances. We want to deliver 633 00:32:42,440 --> 00:32:42,760 Speaker 2: these things. 634 00:32:42,800 --> 00:32:44,800 Speaker 1: They're doing that more and more, like with the defense spending, 635 00:32:44,800 --> 00:32:47,120 Speaker 1: they're saying, if you believe it, we'll do it. We'll 636 00:32:47,120 --> 00:32:50,000 Speaker 1: fund it from reducing civil servant numbers. 637 00:32:49,640 --> 00:32:51,640 Speaker 4: Which yes, game, yeah, let's see. 638 00:32:51,400 --> 00:32:53,480 Speaker 1: To your point, it seems to be the way that 639 00:32:53,560 --> 00:32:55,760 Speaker 1: they think. And as I said earlier, look, the Treasury 640 00:32:55,760 --> 00:32:57,560 Speaker 1: don't like it because this definitely says it's just. 641 00:32:57,600 --> 00:32:58,360 Speaker 4: It's money, right. 642 00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:01,320 Speaker 1: Yeah, but to this point about people, they feel they 643 00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:03,800 Speaker 1: need to have some kind of contract. You we are 644 00:33:03,840 --> 00:33:06,239 Speaker 1: doing this out of this rather than we're just doing it. 645 00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:06,880 Speaker 4: It's a good idea. 646 00:33:07,280 --> 00:33:11,320 Speaker 3: We've been very grandiose talking about the state of the 647 00:33:11,360 --> 00:33:14,080 Speaker 3: polls in general dissatisfaction. We've done a bit on the UK. 648 00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:17,520 Speaker 3: We shouldn't let you go without asking you the sort 649 00:33:17,520 --> 00:33:20,360 Speaker 3: of more mundane question that you have to al capolster 650 00:33:20,360 --> 00:33:21,920 Speaker 3: who's going to win in the US. 651 00:33:22,960 --> 00:33:25,000 Speaker 4: To be honest, at the moment, I would toss a coin. 652 00:33:25,880 --> 00:33:27,880 Speaker 3: Well, specifically, I should ask you what should we be 653 00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:28,600 Speaker 3: looking at to. 654 00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:32,120 Speaker 2: Look at Biden's popularity and see if it goes back 655 00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:35,760 Speaker 2: above forty percent, and look at the other thing, is 656 00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:38,000 Speaker 2: that eighty five percent of the time, it's our eighty 657 00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:41,120 Speaker 2: five percent rule. The person who is strongest on the 658 00:33:41,240 --> 00:33:45,960 Speaker 2: key issue of concern to the American electorate wins. And bizarrely, 659 00:33:46,080 --> 00:33:49,360 Speaker 2: Trump is doing better on many aspects of the economy, 660 00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:53,000 Speaker 2: Biden is doing better on threats to democracy. I think 661 00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:57,040 Speaker 2: that the court cases are a wild card. Biden's and 662 00:33:57,120 --> 00:34:02,640 Speaker 2: actually Trump's age are both wildcard. Statistically, something could happen 663 00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:05,880 Speaker 2: to either of them in terms of their medical condition 664 00:34:06,320 --> 00:34:09,120 Speaker 2: by the autumn. But I think don't do not discounter 665 00:34:09,480 --> 00:34:12,160 Speaker 2: a Trump win by any stretch of the imagination. And 666 00:34:12,200 --> 00:34:15,160 Speaker 2: of course the people he is now surrounded with will 667 00:34:15,200 --> 00:34:17,600 Speaker 2: be more competent than the ones he had the previous time. 668 00:34:17,600 --> 00:34:20,040 Speaker 4: It looks like, well, more competent in implementing, in doing 669 00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:23,399 Speaker 4: what he wants to do. But I just but on. 670 00:34:23,320 --> 00:34:25,600 Speaker 3: That point about this, So the eighty five percent rule 671 00:34:25,680 --> 00:34:27,239 Speaker 3: is just tell us exactly what that is. 672 00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:29,920 Speaker 2: Is that the person who's best on the key issues 673 00:34:29,920 --> 00:34:34,080 Speaker 2: of concern to the American elect today. What let me 674 00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:36,160 Speaker 2: just double check it, because I'm always. 675 00:34:36,160 --> 00:34:41,400 Speaker 1: The zigzags between defending democracy and the economy front of you. 676 00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:43,319 Speaker 3: All right, So you look at that and that will 677 00:34:43,320 --> 00:34:45,799 Speaker 3: tell you if it says defending democracy. 678 00:34:45,880 --> 00:34:48,640 Speaker 2: If that rises and Biden's well ahead, then that will 679 00:34:48,640 --> 00:34:50,480 Speaker 2: probably mean that Biden will be okay. The other thing 680 00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:53,400 Speaker 2: is Biden hasn't really started campaigning yet, whereas Trump is 681 00:34:53,400 --> 00:34:56,600 Speaker 2: on a permanent campaign. He saw a small improvement for 682 00:34:56,640 --> 00:34:59,319 Speaker 2: Biden after his State of the Union address where he 683 00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:01,279 Speaker 2: came out and started to lay it in. And so 684 00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:04,080 Speaker 2: if you look mathematically at all polls that we've ever 685 00:35:04,120 --> 00:35:08,120 Speaker 2: measured over decades, at this point, the poles can typically 686 00:35:08,120 --> 00:35:11,799 Speaker 2: be seven points different than what actually happens, given that 687 00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:14,560 Speaker 2: their neck and neck. Some weeks we have Biden ahead 688 00:35:14,560 --> 00:35:17,640 Speaker 2: by a few points some weeks Trump it's really too 689 00:35:17,760 --> 00:35:19,839 Speaker 2: it's really too close to call at the moment. There's 690 00:35:19,840 --> 00:35:21,239 Speaker 2: so many wild cards. 691 00:35:21,040 --> 00:35:23,480 Speaker 3: Looking at those poles. I mean, obviously, one debate that 692 00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:26,239 Speaker 3: has been on the sort of edges of ebbed and 693 00:35:26,280 --> 00:35:30,600 Speaker 3: flowed among Democrats as to whether the parties should have 694 00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:36,400 Speaker 3: persuaded Joe to stand down, Yeah for this election. What 695 00:35:36,440 --> 00:35:37,759 Speaker 3: are the polls tell you on that? 696 00:35:38,320 --> 00:35:41,200 Speaker 2: Well, I think there's still an incumbency effect that I 697 00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:45,080 Speaker 2: think clearly the candidate is old, so are some of 698 00:35:45,120 --> 00:35:49,839 Speaker 2: the electorate. But the incumbency effect maybe is as important 699 00:35:50,120 --> 00:35:52,680 Speaker 2: as the any what was the alternative? 700 00:35:53,120 --> 00:35:54,600 Speaker 3: So there has to be a very high bar for 701 00:35:54,719 --> 00:35:56,040 Speaker 3: not going with the incumbentant. 702 00:35:56,160 --> 00:35:59,520 Speaker 2: And remember in American politics is it's more normal to 703 00:35:59,560 --> 00:36:02,080 Speaker 2: get too terms. Legra is suggesting that we might be 704 00:36:02,120 --> 00:36:04,479 Speaker 2: moving into this one term politics, both in the UK 705 00:36:04,560 --> 00:36:07,520 Speaker 2: and the US, which in a volatile situation. 706 00:36:07,160 --> 00:36:09,960 Speaker 1: Like the polling, don't you to tell you for every 707 00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:11,480 Speaker 1: single incumbent is dire. 708 00:36:11,719 --> 00:36:14,960 Speaker 2: Yes, that's right, but that in general the history has 709 00:36:15,000 --> 00:36:18,279 Speaker 2: been the incumbency still counts and actually being parochial again 710 00:36:18,360 --> 00:36:21,480 Speaker 2: back in Britain, incumbency helped in the mayoral elections. 711 00:36:22,160 --> 00:36:25,440 Speaker 1: Is amazing to see the label lead be so solid. 712 00:36:25,560 --> 00:36:25,879 Speaker 4: It is. 713 00:36:26,000 --> 00:36:29,279 Speaker 2: It is quite but I think it's the it's the 714 00:36:29,800 --> 00:36:31,880 Speaker 2: when you look at the bottom line, it is the 715 00:36:32,040 --> 00:36:35,600 Speaker 2: deep unpopularity. Sunax ratings are the same as Liz Trusses, 716 00:36:35,600 --> 00:36:38,839 Speaker 2: which is quite impressive given that she's back. You can 717 00:36:39,000 --> 00:36:40,680 Speaker 2: you can quote me on that if you want to. 718 00:36:41,080 --> 00:36:43,600 Speaker 2: And then in terms of the ratings of the government 719 00:36:43,640 --> 00:36:46,960 Speaker 2: and satisfaction with the government of the day, again under 720 00:36:47,160 --> 00:36:51,360 Speaker 2: Sunac's watch, it has now been cumulatively the worst rating 721 00:36:51,360 --> 00:36:53,480 Speaker 2: I think we've seen for any government we've ever measured, 722 00:36:53,640 --> 00:36:56,399 Speaker 2: which is quite impressive in Britain. That's kind of things, 723 00:36:56,400 --> 00:36:58,960 Speaker 2: aren't We've just come out of a recession technically, but 724 00:36:59,160 --> 00:37:01,279 Speaker 2: so I think it's more that people are utterly fed up. 725 00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:05,160 Speaker 2: And I'm back to the Callahan quote from nineteen seventeen. Yes, 726 00:37:05,239 --> 00:37:07,400 Speaker 2: you know, basically there comes a time when whatever you 727 00:37:07,520 --> 00:37:09,880 Speaker 2: say and whatever you do will make no difference. The 728 00:37:09,920 --> 00:37:12,640 Speaker 2: people have decided, and in the case of the Conservatives, 729 00:37:12,960 --> 00:37:14,880 Speaker 2: I think that's the case in Britain at the moment. 730 00:37:15,640 --> 00:37:17,720 Speaker 3: Bempage, thank you very much, pleasure. 731 00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:25,319 Speaker 1: What I thought was very interesting but also very well 732 00:37:25,320 --> 00:37:27,399 Speaker 1: captured was this phrase he had, which was the loss 733 00:37:27,440 --> 00:37:30,840 Speaker 1: of the future. Was pretty gloomy, poetic, but also pretty gloomy. 734 00:37:31,320 --> 00:37:33,080 Speaker 1: And I think that's what we've been driving out in 735 00:37:33,120 --> 00:37:35,759 Speaker 1: a few of these episodes of autonomics now, which is 736 00:37:35,800 --> 00:37:38,880 Speaker 1: the sense of the longer term, not recent, but the 737 00:37:38,920 --> 00:37:42,320 Speaker 1: longer term diminishing people's expectations for themselves and their families. 738 00:37:43,080 --> 00:37:45,520 Speaker 1: I loved I think you did too, the idea that 739 00:37:45,560 --> 00:37:50,200 Speaker 1: the UK is not extremely unhappy. It's his phrase he 740 00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:52,480 Speaker 1: had that actually, and then he went on to comparison 741 00:37:52,480 --> 00:37:56,400 Speaker 1: to quite countries, we're not usually compared to South Africa, 742 00:37:56,520 --> 00:37:57,440 Speaker 1: and yeah, I thought that. 743 00:37:57,440 --> 00:37:59,000 Speaker 3: Was sort of that took the edge off it a bit. 744 00:37:59,040 --> 00:38:01,080 Speaker 3: But I ahead also John Todd this chart which sort 745 00:38:01,080 --> 00:38:05,320 Speaker 3: of suggested that relative to many other places, the average 746 00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:09,120 Speaker 3: Britain actually feels more or less represented by the two 747 00:38:09,160 --> 00:38:11,320 Speaker 3: main parties, which is of course often what you certainly 748 00:38:11,400 --> 00:38:15,080 Speaker 3: not what you get when you listen to Reform talking 749 00:38:15,080 --> 00:38:18,239 Speaker 3: about how that the number of people who are excluded 750 00:38:18,280 --> 00:38:20,360 Speaker 3: from the political mainstream. I thought it was interesting that 751 00:38:20,480 --> 00:38:24,040 Speaker 3: again on that many people in Europe feel much more disenfranchised. 752 00:38:24,400 --> 00:38:26,440 Speaker 5: Yeah, I think it's quite interesting that actually that Brexit 753 00:38:26,520 --> 00:38:28,680 Speaker 5: may have served a positive purpose in that sense that 754 00:38:28,719 --> 00:38:31,920 Speaker 5: the people who felt excluded suddenly were included in Brexit. 755 00:38:32,000 --> 00:38:34,279 Speaker 5: Not necessary to the benefit of the country in the 756 00:38:34,280 --> 00:38:36,440 Speaker 5: long term, but there was a sense that the system 757 00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:39,160 Speaker 5: was responding to their concerns in a way that it 758 00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:42,560 Speaker 5: doesn't seem to quite so easily in Europe, certainly not 759 00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:45,640 Speaker 5: on the European Union level. But I was very impressed 760 00:38:45,640 --> 00:38:49,360 Speaker 5: by this notion of discontent and polarization. That there is 761 00:38:49,360 --> 00:38:52,759 Speaker 5: a level of discontent. There's always discontent with the political establishment, 762 00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:56,200 Speaker 5: but it's just much bigger than it ever has been before, 763 00:38:56,239 --> 00:38:59,000 Speaker 5: and that is manifesting itself in a sort of anti 764 00:38:59,200 --> 00:39:02,760 Speaker 5: incumbency sentiment. And looking forward, I think the anti incumbassy 765 00:39:02,800 --> 00:39:06,520 Speaker 5: moods has some very interesting implications for the forthcoming British election, 766 00:39:06,560 --> 00:39:09,200 Speaker 5: because aren't we at the beginning of a long period 767 00:39:09,600 --> 00:39:12,919 Speaker 5: of one term president, one term prime minister. We had 768 00:39:12,960 --> 00:39:17,560 Speaker 5: Thatcher for three terms, we had Blair with a very 769 00:39:18,120 --> 00:39:20,680 Speaker 5: strong long term prime ministership. I'm not sure that we're 770 00:39:20,680 --> 00:39:22,480 Speaker 5: going to get that with Starmer, partly because they don't 771 00:39:22,520 --> 00:39:24,719 Speaker 5: have an agenda in the way that Blair and Well 772 00:39:24,719 --> 00:39:26,919 Speaker 5: it's interesting that their inheritance is so bad. 773 00:39:27,200 --> 00:39:30,239 Speaker 1: It is interesting because if they're a Starmer spokesperson here 774 00:39:30,680 --> 00:39:32,719 Speaker 1: they I think they are talking about a two term 775 00:39:32,960 --> 00:39:35,239 Speaker 1: They need two terms, something like leveling up. You can't 776 00:39:35,239 --> 00:39:38,319 Speaker 1: do that in one parliament. You can't do that in 777 00:39:38,640 --> 00:39:39,319 Speaker 1: it's two three. 778 00:39:39,400 --> 00:39:41,359 Speaker 5: I think the two terms depends on the Tories really. 779 00:39:41,480 --> 00:39:44,319 Speaker 5: I think if the Tours fall apart, which looks very likely, 780 00:39:44,360 --> 00:39:45,080 Speaker 5: then they do get. 781 00:39:44,920 --> 00:39:46,319 Speaker 3: To well and this is how you end up with 782 00:39:46,320 --> 00:39:50,040 Speaker 3: what happens to reform. It's so significant because we could 783 00:39:50,080 --> 00:39:52,439 Speaker 3: be just looking at a very we could be looking 784 00:39:52,520 --> 00:39:55,680 Speaker 3: at a much stronger Labor Party if that depending on 785 00:39:55,760 --> 00:39:57,840 Speaker 3: how that has torn the Conservatives apart. 786 00:39:57,920 --> 00:40:01,399 Speaker 5: Ben's talking about the geology is exhausted to be looking 787 00:40:01,400 --> 00:40:02,960 Speaker 5: for competence. But on the other hand, if you look 788 00:40:02,960 --> 00:40:05,720 Speaker 5: at the fringes of British politics, you have the growth 789 00:40:05,760 --> 00:40:09,319 Speaker 5: of a sectarian politics, of white identity politics with reform, 790 00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:14,719 Speaker 5: various sort of gaza based sort of political insurgencies in 791 00:40:14,800 --> 00:40:17,879 Speaker 5: heavily immigrant areas. There is something going on, perhaps still 792 00:40:17,880 --> 00:40:20,200 Speaker 5: on the periphery of politics, but moving into the center 793 00:40:20,239 --> 00:40:22,719 Speaker 5: of politics, which is a very different and in some 794 00:40:22,760 --> 00:40:26,920 Speaker 5: ways Trump's style and far left American democratic style of 795 00:40:26,960 --> 00:40:29,920 Speaker 5: politics which is all about identity and not about competence. 796 00:40:36,360 --> 00:40:38,520 Speaker 3: Thanks for listening all the way to the end of 797 00:40:38,560 --> 00:40:41,800 Speaker 3: this week's photon Nomics from Bloomberg. This episode was hosted 798 00:40:41,800 --> 00:40:45,600 Speaker 3: by Me, Stephanie Flanders, Adrian Wildridge, and Allegra Stratton. It 799 00:40:45,680 --> 00:40:48,440 Speaker 3: was produced by Sammer Sadi with help from Chris Martlou 800 00:40:48,560 --> 00:40:53,240 Speaker 3: and Julia Mant. Editorial direction from Victoria Wakely, sound design 801 00:40:53,400 --> 00:40:57,960 Speaker 3: by Blake Maples. Brendan Francis Newnham is our executive producer. 802 00:40:58,640 --> 00:41:01,840 Speaker 3: Sage Bowman is Head of Podcasts. With special thanks to 803 00:41:01,880 --> 00:41:05,640 Speaker 3: Ben Page and please, especially if you like it, subscribe, rate, 804 00:41:05,960 --> 00:41:08,719 Speaker 3: and review this podcast wherever you listen to it.