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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. You can just about that action.

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Speaker 1: All right. Here we all probes throwing out spect We're

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Speaker 1: sitting up to cash touchtop.

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Speaker 2: That's all we see. Most gamble is ships.

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Speaker 1: When they go to gamble, they go to win. That's incredible,

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Speaker 1: big bank, small to make money. All right, this is

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Speaker 1: the ultimate combining.

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Speaker 2: And you want to be.

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Speaker 1: And we are under way. What's going on? Everybody? Happy holidays.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, presenter by DraftKings. I

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Speaker 1: am your host, Chris Raybond. This is our NFL Week

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Speaker 1: seventeen betting preview. We're gonna talk our top sides, totals, props,

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Speaker 1: money mine, underdogs, touchdowns, and of course build our Sunday

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Speaker 1: six pack against the spread bets with the help of

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Speaker 1: my co host, the Prime Minister, Degenerate Nation, Stucky, stuck.

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Speaker 1: Happy holidays. What's going on? Man? Go on?

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Speaker 2: Brother? Uh? And it was an annoying week.

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Speaker 1: Uh.

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Speaker 2: Just quarterback injuries.

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Speaker 1: Oh my god.

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Speaker 2: I thought Washington. I really thought Washington was live to

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Speaker 2: win that game. And then obviously you get Josh Johnson.

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Speaker 2: It's not gonna end well. And then Lamar goes down

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Speaker 2: for the Ravens. So those two were unfortunate. I had

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Speaker 2: both of them, and uh yeah, the Ravens still still

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Speaker 2: found a way to be up eleven late and then

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Speaker 2: choked away the lead dropped a pick, a couple of

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Speaker 2: drop picks in the game. Uh so, yeah, that was unfortunate.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, anytime you're down to Josh Johnson, it's not

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Speaker 2: gonna end well. But sometimes you get quarterback injuries that couse.

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Speaker 2: You wear so many quarterback injuries in the NFL right now,

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Speaker 2: since insane, And that's the story of the Christmas slate.

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Speaker 2: I guess we can go through that real quick.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Dallas, Dallas, Washington. Looks like Josh Johnson will probably

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Speaker 1: make the start. Mariota did not practice on Tuesday thinking

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Speaker 1: he's going to be out, and then Daniel's obviously shut down,

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Speaker 1: so it looks like it's gonna be Josh Johnson commander's

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Speaker 1: seven point home dogs. I kind of feel good, I mean,

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Speaker 1: I kind of feel good about the commanders in this spot.

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Speaker 1: It would be commanders or nothing for me. But which

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Speaker 1: way are you meaning there?

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Speaker 2: I know numbers wise Washington a little bit, but like

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Speaker 2: Josh Johnson is horrendous, I mean, like he's he can't

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Speaker 2: run an offense right now, and there's offensive line injuries

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Speaker 2: to boot, and then I don't know how Washington's gonna

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Speaker 2: get stops because they can't get any pressure. So Dak

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Speaker 2: is just gonna be able to sit back and pick

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Speaker 2: them apart, and you're probably gonna get some Johnson mistakes.

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Speaker 2: But the Dallas defense is obviously banged up, not very good.

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Speaker 2: I don't know, I can't with any confidence, but the commanders,

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Speaker 2: the Vikings just went out to set and a half

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Speaker 2: point dogs at home against the Lions because McCarthy got

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Speaker 2: announced out. Bro's memorable. Start your boy, I think, I mean,

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Speaker 2: I thought at six the line was basically good with

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Speaker 2: McCarthy out, and now you got this news and it's

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Speaker 2: out to seven and a half. I think I have

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Speaker 2: to play the Vikings at seven and a half. I

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Speaker 2: know they have a lot of injuries, but so I

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Speaker 2: mean that because you have you have offensive Drek Darresol's

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Speaker 2: on ir Ryan Kelly, it's gonna be out at center.

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Speaker 2: Brian O'Neal got banged up, Hawkinson, the running backs are

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Speaker 2: banged up.

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Speaker 1: That's a nightmare. That's a nightmare for brosm I mean,

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Speaker 1: if they were healthy, I would definitely Vikings all day.

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Speaker 1: This this this, I think the Lions doll have enough offensively,

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Speaker 1: should still be I probably would need like post it

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Speaker 1: like a.

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Speaker 2: Like a I don't know, I'm even with brons in

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Speaker 2: these injuries, I'm still under seven. I mean, like, here's

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Speaker 2: the thing the Detroit with McCarthy, when McCarthy was horrendous,

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Speaker 2: already lost to the Vikings team at home. It was

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Speaker 2: because Flores was just dialing up pressure along the interior,

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Speaker 2: and golf can't do anything when that happens. I don't

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Speaker 2: know why that wouldn't happen again. I mean, did do

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Speaker 2: the Lions have any offensive linemen left?

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Speaker 1: Been terrible upfront?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, they can't lock anybody. They have injuries on the

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Speaker 2: offensive line. They have injuries all across the defense. I

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Speaker 2: don't even know who's available on defense. So, I mean,

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Speaker 2: this Lions team has been They've given up. Over the

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Speaker 2: past five games, they go up four hundred and sixty

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Speaker 2: yards per game. The Bengals are dead last the NFL

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Speaker 2: in the season at four hundred and two. I don't know.

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Speaker 2: I don't try. Then this Lions team lanth seven and

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Speaker 2: a half on the road. I think I might have

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Speaker 2: to take some vikings and then and my favure of

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Speaker 2: bet on Christmas, unfortunately is the Chiefs. I cannot get

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Speaker 2: any I can't get close to this number. I mean

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Speaker 2: this number Aludacon is bad. I mean all we have

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Speaker 2: to go off of is like his preseason numbers, which

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Speaker 2: are bad. His sack he's going to take too many sacks.

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Speaker 2: He is probably going to turn the ball over. But

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Speaker 2: I mean, thirteen and a half. This is for a

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Speaker 2: Broncos team that doesn't blow out anybody. I mean, they

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Speaker 2: were laying what ten and a half on a neutral

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Speaker 2: against justin fields and one by two with the Jets

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Speaker 2: throwing for negative ten passing yards. This line is crazy.

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Speaker 2: Like the Chiefs a month ago closed four point favorites

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Speaker 2: at Denver. Let's make it easy and just say home

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Speaker 2: fields one and a half each way. So that's at

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Speaker 2: the time, that's implying the Chiefs are five and a

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Speaker 2: half points better than the Broncos on a neutral field. Now,

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Speaker 2: obviously the Broncos won that game. It's kind of a

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Speaker 2: coin flip game. But now this is saying that the

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Speaker 2: Broncos are over two touchdowns better than the Chiefs without Mahome.

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Speaker 2: That's a twenty point move. I mean Mahomes at Mahomes

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Speaker 2: to Aludakon, what is the max? It can be worth

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Speaker 2: eleven twelve points. I mean it can't be worth fourteen

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Speaker 2: points to a spread a quarterback in the NFL, and

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Speaker 2: like Minshew was horrendous. Minsh, you can't move at least Ludicon.

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Speaker 2: You can just use quarterback run. You can move around

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Speaker 2: a little bit because you're gonna need to with their

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Speaker 2: the state of their offensive line against the Denver front.

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Speaker 2: I mean, how many points realistically in Mahomes. And by

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Speaker 2: the way, Mahomes over his last two games was statistically

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Speaker 2: the worst quarterback in the NFL if you look at

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Speaker 2: completion percentage over expectation. It's not like this offense was humming.

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Speaker 2: This offense was broken for the last three weeks. So

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Speaker 2: it's not we're going to from this machine offense to

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Speaker 2: you know, a third string FCS guy. This offense was

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Speaker 2: We were talking about how the offense was broken over

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Speaker 2: the last couple of weeks before Mahomes got hurt. So

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Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, I guess there's other as twelve and.

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Speaker 1: A half maybe max I would say max like twelve

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Speaker 1: and a half, Like if you say it. If you

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Speaker 1: say Lucon's like the worst backup, I would say is

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Speaker 1: probably like minus five and a half max, like you

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Speaker 1: know what I mean. And then Mahomes you give him

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Speaker 1: like a seven. Yeah, i'd say max, but it's probably

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Speaker 1: like you said, it's probably not twelve and a half.

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Speaker 1: It's probably it's probably less than that. Yeah, eleven.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, but there's also like I do like that it

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Speaker 2: can move over. And here's the thing. I mean, I

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Speaker 2: we bet the Titans last week. I thought that was

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Speaker 2: a horrendous spot for the Chiefs, like they just were

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Speaker 2: eliminated from the playoffs. They sad everyone that was hurt,

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Speaker 2: their quarterback got hurt. So here's the other thing. A

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Speaker 2: lot of Con had to come into that game and

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Speaker 2: he didn't get any reps, Like this was the third

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Speaker 2: string quarterback. Well he does no reps with any so

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Speaker 2: the least he is gonna get reps this week. But

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs basically didn't show up for that game. And

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Speaker 2: I can't really blame on the human owe they will

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Speaker 2: care about this game. It's their rival who beat them

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Speaker 2: earlier in the year, trying to you know, clinch the

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Speaker 2: division on on their home field on Christmas night, like

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs will show up in care on this game.

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Speaker 2: Their defense still can give Nicks problems. This is put

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Speaker 2: The Broncos also just got destroyed at home. I do

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Speaker 2: think their defense is a bit overrated. It's not like

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Speaker 2: the Broncos are coming off a great performance. They got

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Speaker 2: annihilated at home by Trevor Lawrence and the Jags. So

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Speaker 2: this lone and the total thirty six like that, So

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Speaker 2: thirteen and a half points is a ton Just throw

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Speaker 2: for complete one or two deep balls against Riley Moss.

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Speaker 2: Get the thirteen points and you cover. I mean, what's

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Speaker 2: what's the what's the Broncos ceiling year? Like twenty one

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Speaker 2: son it It.

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Speaker 1: Kind of reminds me of didn't they play a game

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Speaker 1: last year where I mean it was in Denver.

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Speaker 2: They sat literally everybody they play.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's what I worry about.

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Speaker 2: Thirteen is going to play here deep They sat all there.

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Speaker 2: They sat everyone last year and had no care in

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Speaker 2: the world and the Broncos needed to win. I mean

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Speaker 2: they sat literally everyone and they just didn't. So like,

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Speaker 2: I don't, will do you make this number that's gonna

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Speaker 2: make it?

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Speaker 1: Like, well, I think it's's whatever.

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Speaker 2: I think this should be like ten and a half.

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Speaker 2: It's a hard number.

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Speaker 1: I'll give it that.

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Speaker 2: I mean, the Ludatonic could just turn it over. He

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Speaker 2: could throw through two pick sixes. They could lose twenty.

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Speaker 2: I mean they could lose thirty five nothing. I mean

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Speaker 2: obviously I'm just saying, oh.

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Speaker 1: No, yeah, I do make this around ten. So I

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Speaker 1: mean it's it's just like I you know, it's you

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Speaker 1: gotta update once we get the final injury reports. I

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Speaker 1: just don't know for sure if the Chiefs are in

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Speaker 1: this mode where they're just like, okay, we want the

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Speaker 1: best possible pick, let's sit everyone, or they're like, all right,

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Speaker 1: you know we took it, took a game off against

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Speaker 1: the Titans because they did have most guys are back

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Speaker 1: in practice today were she Rice and Thornton sat o out,

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Speaker 1: Watson set out, and mcduffiely sat out. So still the

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Speaker 1: corner issue cornerbacks is concerning, but it's not like you

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Speaker 1: have like I would have been worried if you know,

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Speaker 1: just everyone was a d MP on excuse me on

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Speaker 1: Monday that was they had they had only four guys

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Speaker 1: miss practice on a Monday, and you know, so you

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Speaker 1: get two more practices this week, right, So they're probably right,

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Speaker 1: they're probably gonna take it, take it seriously given what

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Speaker 1: happened last week. I don't I don't think they're that's

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Speaker 1: sitting too well.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I have to take the point like a ten.

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Speaker 1: This would be like a ten. I mean, feel much

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Speaker 1: better about them than than the Vikings, honestly, just because

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Speaker 1: the Vikings may be incapable of like offense with their

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Speaker 1: with their given their injuries, and like we did this

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Speaker 1: already with the Seahawks, where it was like, all right,

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Speaker 1: Vikings look good here, but it's it's like no, with

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Speaker 1: no offense, the lines are not are not gonna score

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Speaker 1: fourteen like they're gonna score points. So yeah, I'd much

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Speaker 1: prefer the chiefs of the of these two dogs, chiefs commanders.

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Speaker 1: Then like my last preferred I think would be the Vikings.

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Speaker 2: Honestly, all right, I'm chiefs first, then I'm I actually

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Speaker 2: kind of like Vikings, and then I don't think I

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Speaker 2: want anything to do with Dallas w.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that's probably a non bet, but yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's just man, Ryan Kelly, I would just it's like

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Speaker 1: these injuries in the NFL this year, it seems like

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Speaker 1: it's all the same people over and over again. It's

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Speaker 1: like the Packers can never stay healthy. It's like the

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Speaker 1: minute comes to playoff time, everyone goes down. But Mark

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Speaker 1: Jackson can't stay healthy. The Vikings, though one, can't stay healthy. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's just like ridiculous. But let's jump into the six

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Speaker 1: pack for week seventeen.

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Speaker 2: Thursday for action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 1: Sunday six pack fifty three forty. I think I didn't

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Speaker 1: go end up going Titans my second. I know I

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Speaker 1: picked them last, but I think I ended up going

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Speaker 1: to the second and Washington third. So yeah, yeah, fifty

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Speaker 1: three forty, you're up. Another good week for you Giants.

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Speaker 1: Frustrating last week. Should have been in position to win,

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Speaker 1: but just no offense, too much, too run heavy in

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Speaker 1: those wins.

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Speaker 2: Well they had to pick six that yeah, would have

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Speaker 2: flipped the game. And quarter was lined off off side.

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Speaker 1: He's oh god, Carter, by the way, just another enraging

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Speaker 1: Oh my god. I yeah, whatever, No, we.

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Speaker 2: Finally should have hit our touchdown parlay DK scored and they.

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Speaker 1: Were already OPI OPI. Yeah. Yeah, and the game no.

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Speaker 2: Matter what if there was OPI or not. That was

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Speaker 2: so annoying, Yeah, annoying week. But for my first pick

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Speaker 2: in the first overall the week seventeen Sunday six pack,

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Speaker 2: I'm going with the Las Vegas Raiders minus one and

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Speaker 2: a half at home against the New York Giants. This

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Speaker 2: Raiders team is bad, but they've treated me very well

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Speaker 2: this year. Actually, I'll play the Texans last They should

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Speaker 2: have won that game. I'll play. I'll played the Texans

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Speaker 2: on the field at one point the yardage was three

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Speaker 2: fifteen to two oh one, five point nine to three

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Speaker 2: point nine yards per play until that final drive, and

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Speaker 2: they got shafted by the reps multiple times in that

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Speaker 2: game on bad PI calls. I like some of the

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Speaker 2: things they did with Gino last week, early downs, getting

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Speaker 2: the ball out quick to the tight ends in space,

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Speaker 2: and I think they might have found something with uh

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Speaker 2: this this kid Rodgers at guard, who's playing better. They're

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Speaker 2: interiored gave up no pressures last week against the Texans.

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Speaker 2: Their tackles are still really bad. But I do think

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Speaker 2: there's a real chance Colt Miller comes back at left tackle,

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Speaker 2: which would be just it. I mean, he's been he's

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Speaker 2: been limited practice two weeks and Pete Carroll came out

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Speaker 2: today and said he wants to get him back out there,

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Speaker 2: so I don't think they're shutting him down. And Pete

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Speaker 2: Carroll's not a tanker. I don't think NFL teams tank

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Speaker 2: on purpose, like the players aren't going to tank, but

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Speaker 2: you can, like from a personnel standpoint, you can just

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Speaker 2: sit guys not play them. Pete Carroll is not that.

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Speaker 2: So I think there's a real chance Colton Miller plays.

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Speaker 2: The upgrade over who is a Stone forestyth would be enormous.

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Speaker 2: And you're going up against the worst run defense in

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Speaker 2: the NFL. I mean, the Giants. The only defensive the

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Speaker 2: only guy on the edge you could defend the run

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Speaker 2: was Thibodeau and he's on ir They cannot stop anybody

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Speaker 2: on the ground. So Jenti, who really got going last week,

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Speaker 2: I think could have a big game here. I think

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Speaker 2: Bowers will have plus matchups all over the field, and

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Speaker 2: then on the other side you have a Giants team.

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Speaker 2: Jackson Dart is just not playing very well and he's

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Speaker 2: not running as much. I think he might have hit

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Speaker 2: a rookie wall. There's injuries all over and now the

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Speaker 2: Raiders might get Colton Miller back, and the Giants are

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Speaker 2: probably not going to have Andrew Thomas, who got completely

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Speaker 2: snubbed from the Pro Bowl. By the way, it's been

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Speaker 2: one of the two or three best left tackles in

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Speaker 2: the NFL this year. The Giants have other offensive line

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Speaker 2: injuries as well, with Runyan and Schmidt's. But if Thomas

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Speaker 2: doesn't go, I mean we've seen this in the past.

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Speaker 2: The Giants offensive line now turns into the Raiders offensive line,

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Speaker 2: and then the Raiders might get a Pro Bowl left

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Speaker 2: tackle back. I think that might end up being the difference.

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Speaker 2: I trust the Raiders defense more than the Giants defense,

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Speaker 2: and I think that Genti can get going. I think

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Speaker 2: that the Raiders have better weapons overall. Darts kind of

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Speaker 2: hit a rookie wall. I think the Raiders get it

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Speaker 2: done at home. Give me Vegas minus one and a half.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the way.

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Speaker 2: The other thing, that one thing, the last thing I'll

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Speaker 2: mention is that, I mean, we just saw the Giants

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Speaker 2: lose at home to you know, Brosmer and you know

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Speaker 2: they lost at home to Mariota before then. The Raiders, Yes,

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Speaker 2: they've been bad. They both both These are two wins.

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Speaker 2: I mean, look look at the defenses they've faced over

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Speaker 2: the past. I mean it's insane. They face at Houston,

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Speaker 2: at Philly, Denver, at the Chargers, the Browns, the Cowboys.

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Speaker 2: There was a nice break at Denver, Jacksonville at Case.

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Speaker 2: I mean this is two months of facing like top

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Speaker 2: I mean the past month they faced like all the

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Speaker 2: best defenses in the NFL. So this will be a

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Speaker 2: nice break for them as well. It's not as bad

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Speaker 2: as his look because a lot of that is. And finally,

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Speaker 2: they put a really good performance together last week. I

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Speaker 2: think they can carry some of the momentum over. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: I think the Raiders get it done at home against

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Speaker 2: the Giants.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I think you grabbed this at Raiders are still

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Speaker 1: plus plus at a plus number right when you first

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Speaker 1: grab this yeah plus yeah yeah that you know that

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Speaker 1: obviously makes me feel better about it. I mean the

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Speaker 1: Raiders have been bad too, but you're right, they played

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Speaker 1: a tough schedule. I do think the run game is,

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Speaker 1: you know, an advantage here. I think Dart is a

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Speaker 1: tough one because I I wonder if last week was

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Speaker 1: just due to you know, the like the blitz combined

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Speaker 1: with the wind, like they were like, all right, we're

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Speaker 1: gonna still super run hair. I don't think they passed

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Speaker 1: it more than once on their first like fifteen to

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Speaker 1: eighteen plays of the game. Now we're playing indoors, so

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Speaker 1: you might see the Giants offense wake up. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean Thomas, Yeah, so it's like, uh, I guess

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Speaker 1: you just probably just leave theoing or use use Bellinger

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Speaker 1: all game and just block on the edge. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: the Giants are I don't think they're as bad as

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Speaker 1: like whatever they whatever that was last week, but they're

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Speaker 1: not good. And the Raiders they played, Yes, they played Philly,

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Speaker 1: they played Houston, they did show up last week. And

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Speaker 1: Giants might be tanking. Who knows, I mean their their owner.

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Speaker 1: I could see them. They're like, yeah, just tank like giants.

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Speaker 1: Giants do weird shit.

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Speaker 2: So I would I wouldn't say where you could fight.

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Speaker 2: I'd grab plus one and a half contest we take

335
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Speaker 2: the current line. Would if you can find it, find

336
00:18:05,119 --> 00:18:08,560
Speaker 2: a cheap money on it. Where where I could seem

337
00:18:08,600 --> 00:18:11,240
Speaker 2: like where the tanking teams at the end. What can happen?

338
00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:13,840
Speaker 2: We've seen this like twice before, so I mean it's

339
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Speaker 2: not likely. But if say the Giants score at the

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Speaker 2: end of the game, like down seven, They're not going

341
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Speaker 2: to kick an extra point, right, They're gonna go for two.

342
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Speaker 2: These teams don't need to go to overtime. They don't

343
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Speaker 2: care about They actually want to lose. So you could

344
00:18:29,920 --> 00:18:32,880
Speaker 2: see like the world's worst two point conversion play called

345
00:18:34,720 --> 00:18:38,200
Speaker 2: it and then the Raiders win by one. Similarly, if

346
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Speaker 2: the Raiders score at the end, like they're going to

347
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Speaker 2: try to go for two to win, if instead of

348
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Speaker 2: tie it like there is, he.

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Speaker 1: Might he might go with it. He might go for

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Speaker 1: like a field goal to tie it at the end

351
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Speaker 1: of overtime like that. Cara's weird. But yeah, point is taken.

352
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Speaker 1: Uh yeah, I'd rather the money line, all right, where

353
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Speaker 1: you first pick in the week seventeen six packs second overall,

354
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Speaker 1: I'm going with the Houston Texans Plus two and a

355
00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:10,359
Speaker 1: half is still out there, probably going down, so I

356
00:19:10,400 --> 00:19:12,919
Speaker 1: probably want to grab this. It's not getting this three

357
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Speaker 1: at the Los Angeles Chargers. Now, Texans played like asked

358
00:19:17,320 --> 00:19:20,240
Speaker 1: last week, still managed to win. Just talked about the Raiders.

359
00:19:20,600 --> 00:19:24,240
Speaker 1: The Raiders showed up Texans a little bit sweepy last week.

360
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Speaker 1: I like the Texas matchup in this spot. So before

361
00:19:28,119 --> 00:19:32,040
Speaker 1: we get into it, the injury questions are there to tackle?

362
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Speaker 2: Yeah?

363
00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:33,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, so but.

364
00:19:34,160 --> 00:19:36,920
Speaker 2: Uh, they didn't practice that braw.

365
00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:38,639
Speaker 1: No, yeah, one of them did one of them? Did?

366
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Speaker 2: They did?

367
00:19:39,960 --> 00:19:42,960
Speaker 1: One one did? I think it was Brown?

368
00:19:42,960 --> 00:19:44,800
Speaker 2: I think is a broken end. I think he might be.

369
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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think Brown practice. Ursery didn't. So it

370
00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:49,080
Speaker 1: sounds like Brown's going to be back. He's the better

371
00:19:49,119 --> 00:19:52,480
Speaker 1: of the two, which is Rich's ideal anyway. And then

372
00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:55,600
Speaker 1: they had they gave like Lassiter in the corners, uh,

373
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Speaker 1: just a rest day. I think they did that last

374
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Speaker 1: week as well. So they're they'reretty much at full strength

375
00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:05,479
Speaker 1: outside of Ursery, who again hasn't been great. He's sixty

376
00:20:05,520 --> 00:20:08,160
Speaker 1: third out of eighty three tackles, so they're probably gonna

377
00:20:08,320 --> 00:20:10,120
Speaker 1: have to give him, give him some help off the edge.

378
00:20:10,119 --> 00:20:12,720
Speaker 1: But this team plays well in one to two personnel.

379
00:20:12,920 --> 00:20:16,280
Speaker 1: But the Chargers, let's talk about them, because I did

380
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Speaker 1: say last week I said didn't feel great about Dallas

381
00:20:18,760 --> 00:20:21,400
Speaker 1: against the Chargers, just the way things were going with them.

382
00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:24,480
Speaker 1: I thought the Chargers could kind of get right offensively

383
00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:29,240
Speaker 1: against that Dallas d But now we're back to a

384
00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:32,919
Speaker 1: respectable defense again, not just a respectable defense. Statistically, the

385
00:20:33,080 --> 00:20:36,160
Speaker 1: Texans well the fewest points in the league, Cowboys second most.

386
00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:40,600
Speaker 1: So remember Justin Herbert. Before before that Cowboys game, Justin

387
00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:46,720
Speaker 1: Herbert was getting sacked double digit percent ever since Joe

388
00:20:46,720 --> 00:20:50,960
Speaker 1: Walt went down in Week ten, so he had seventeen

389
00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:56,480
Speaker 1: percent sack erate thirteen thirteen percent, twelve percent. That's that's

390
00:20:56,520 --> 00:21:01,280
Speaker 1: six five, two three seven four sacks before none against

391
00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:03,000
Speaker 1: the Dallas Cowboys. So of course, what does you do

392
00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:07,120
Speaker 1: throws for three hundred yards two touchdowns, uh, twenty three

393
00:21:07,119 --> 00:21:09,919
Speaker 1: of twenty nine passing his passing Alrea totals before that

394
00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:12,840
Speaker 1: since all went down two fifty two twenty eighty one,

395
00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:18,040
Speaker 1: one nine to ten. He threw for multiple touchdowns only

396
00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:20,960
Speaker 1: one other time outside the game. All went down two

397
00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:23,680
Speaker 1: against the Titans and one and two against the Las

398
00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:27,040
Speaker 1: Vegas Raiders, which not not hard to do. So I

399
00:21:27,040 --> 00:21:29,159
Speaker 1: think this offensive line is going to still be a

400
00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:33,280
Speaker 1: major issue against the Houston Texans. And that's really the

401
00:21:33,320 --> 00:21:36,439
Speaker 1: difference for me, because we saw what happens when the

402
00:21:36,520 --> 00:21:40,000
Speaker 1: Chargers have o line issues against the Texans and just everybody,

403
00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:42,200
Speaker 1: but especially against the Texans last year in the playoffs,

404
00:21:42,520 --> 00:21:45,280
Speaker 1: they just completely smashed him. I believe the charges are

405
00:21:45,320 --> 00:21:48,920
Speaker 1: favored in that game Charges little better at receiver this year.

406
00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:52,600
Speaker 1: But Texans, as I mentioned Corners healthy, pe Tree still

407
00:21:53,040 --> 00:21:54,879
Speaker 1: is is there in the slot, so you got I

408
00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:57,280
Speaker 1: mean he's ranked number two at PFF. You got those

409
00:21:57,440 --> 00:22:00,960
Speaker 1: got last year, you got uh Stingley. So I just

410
00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:03,000
Speaker 1: think this is a good matchup for the Texas. I

411
00:22:03,080 --> 00:22:06,600
Speaker 1: think Chargers are being a little bit overrated just based

412
00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:09,600
Speaker 1: on the fact that they've squeaked out. They squeaked out. Uh. Well,

413
00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:12,199
Speaker 1: they beat the Raiders convincingly, but it was a that

414
00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:15,040
Speaker 1: was the game Herbert first got hurt. It wasn't really

415
00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:17,480
Speaker 1: that great of a performance. The Raiders just in the

416
00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:21,159
Speaker 1: middle of stinking uh got lucky against Philly and that overtime,

417
00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:22,879
Speaker 1: you know when Hurts just threw away the game. They

418
00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:25,720
Speaker 1: needed what five four or five turnovers and won over

419
00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:28,359
Speaker 1: at the end of overtime by three. Then they play

420
00:22:28,880 --> 00:22:31,320
Speaker 1: just a Kansas City team that was driving down the field.

421
00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:34,359
Speaker 1: If that'th Mahomes in there, they probably they probably lose

422
00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:37,119
Speaker 1: that game. Garda Minshew comes in three good plays and

423
00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:41,879
Speaker 1: then immediately just it's like false start, uh incomplete shd

424
00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:44,919
Speaker 1: turnover or duaya game incomplete should turnover for Minchew. So

425
00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:47,120
Speaker 1: That's that's what the Charges have been up to ever

426
00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:49,480
Speaker 1: since this these old line injuries. They got blown out

427
00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:51,520
Speaker 1: by the Jags, they beat the Raiders and then they

428
00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:53,560
Speaker 1: yeah they got two lucky wins and and then blow

429
00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:55,720
Speaker 1: out a team with no defense. So I just think

430
00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:59,040
Speaker 1: Houston is the better team, and I think used did

431
00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:02,320
Speaker 1: match is up well here with the Chargers. And I

432
00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:05,000
Speaker 1: think Houston's offense has been you know, last week it

433
00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:08,680
Speaker 1: was a little shaky, but you got Mark's return to practice.

434
00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:11,800
Speaker 2: So they need mar Marx is huge because they have

435
00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:14,400
Speaker 2: no run game with no juice in the run game without.

436
00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:18,560
Speaker 1: Them Hey no, no jawhard Jordan slander. But now you're

437
00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:19,400
Speaker 1: you're you're correct that.

438
00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:21,159
Speaker 2: Would they run for three arts per carry last week

439
00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:22,080
Speaker 2: against the Raiders.

440
00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:23,680
Speaker 1: I mean, don't probably do that with Marx, But I

441
00:23:23,680 --> 00:23:25,080
Speaker 1: think he gives the more in the pass game, and

442
00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:26,880
Speaker 1: which could be necessary if they want.

443
00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:31,399
Speaker 2: To big ones like he can have more some explosives,

444
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:34,679
Speaker 2: and yeah, in the passing game. He gives them some

445
00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:35,440
Speaker 2: juice as well.

446
00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:41,640
Speaker 1: Uh So the Chargers, they're gonna they like Roland's talking about,

447
00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:44,160
Speaker 1: you know, going medieval on them, and in a regular

448
00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:46,000
Speaker 1: type of game, they're gonna have to be more run

449
00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:48,120
Speaker 1: heavy than they were against Dallas, where I mean twenty

450
00:23:48,200 --> 00:23:51,359
Speaker 1: nine pass attempts three hundred yards that there's only maybe

451
00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:53,840
Speaker 1: like five six defenses that they could do that against.

452
00:23:53,840 --> 00:23:56,760
Speaker 1: And this is statistically the best one in the in

453
00:23:56,800 --> 00:23:59,800
Speaker 1: the NFL. So yeah, give me, give me the use

454
00:23:59,880 --> 00:24:03,000
Speaker 1: to Texans. I just think the market is react overreacting

455
00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:05,960
Speaker 1: to like the Texans closely against the Raiders, and for

456
00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:08,560
Speaker 1: what is worse. Road teams have always been really good

457
00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:11,680
Speaker 1: on Saturday Football. I don't know if there's much to it,

458
00:24:11,720 --> 00:24:14,400
Speaker 1: but we do have a pretty arge sample size going

459
00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:17,800
Speaker 1: back to four. Road teams are sixty eight and forty

460
00:24:17,840 --> 00:24:21,680
Speaker 1: six against the spread sixty percent fifty percent ROI according

461
00:24:21,680 --> 00:24:24,920
Speaker 1: to our Action Labs data, and Stroud has been fifty

462
00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:26,720
Speaker 1: nine percent in his career as a dog. So good

463
00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:27,320
Speaker 1: to Uston.

464
00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:31,200
Speaker 2: Put me in that way. I prefer lower scoring game,

465
00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:35,639
Speaker 2: good teaser piece for me. We'll find a dance partner.

466
00:24:35,800 --> 00:24:38,960
Speaker 2: Maybe the Titans lower scoring game get that up over

467
00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:43,480
Speaker 2: three and seven as well for my But yeah, the

468
00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:49,000
Speaker 2: offensive line injuries on both sides. Good defenses don't see

469
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:52,880
Speaker 2: a lot of explosive plays, probably a lot of negative plays.

470
00:24:53,520 --> 00:25:00,480
Speaker 2: This one has like twenty to seventeen written all it.

471
00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:03,200
Speaker 1: Just begating lux though. I mean, like they can't keep

472
00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:05,320
Speaker 1: doing this with this. His poor office of Vine and

473
00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:08,280
Speaker 1: Day essentially quihed a playoff birth without doing anything with

474
00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:11,119
Speaker 1: the I think with the with the coach losing that

475
00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:13,600
Speaker 1: game one Monday night, so like, I just think charges

476
00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:15,080
Speaker 1: his luck is running out at some point. You still

477
00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:17,960
Speaker 1: had their their like bad game last week. I think

478
00:25:18,119 --> 00:25:19,520
Speaker 1: I think you used to bounces back here.

479
00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:22,560
Speaker 2: I would mean that way I'd maked up basically a pick.

480
00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:25,400
Speaker 2: I do have the Texans rated higher.

481
00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:26,240
Speaker 1: Yeah.

482
00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:29,920
Speaker 2: For my second pick and the third overall the week

483
00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:33,320
Speaker 2: seventeen Sunday six pack, I'm going with the Cleveland Browns

484
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:36,240
Speaker 2: plus three and a half at home against the Pittsburgh

485
00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:39,760
Speaker 2: Steelers if you follow on the action over Calf I

486
00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:41,240
Speaker 2: got four and a half earlier the week. I'm okay

487
00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:45,280
Speaker 2: with anything over three. Browns for what it's like my

488
00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:48,119
Speaker 2: action wrapped for the second year in around, the Browns

489
00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:51,120
Speaker 2: are my most profitable team, mainly just because I bet

490
00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:53,680
Speaker 2: the Browns at home where over the past three seasons

491
00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:55,600
Speaker 2: they have been the most profitable team in the NFL

492
00:25:55,680 --> 00:25:57,639
Speaker 2: and on the road they're six and eighteen against the spread.

493
00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:01,359
Speaker 2: The worst team in the NFL defense just plays on

494
00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:04,480
Speaker 2: their level at home, and they are going up against

495
00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:08,640
Speaker 2: a Steelers offense that won't have DK Metcalf, who suspended

496
00:26:08,680 --> 00:26:11,400
Speaker 2: for the final two games, that has offensive line injuries,

497
00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:16,080
Speaker 2: and there's gonna be major, major, major wins in this game,

498
00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:18,600
Speaker 2: which is why the total is.

499
00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:22,120
Speaker 1: Specting three three and a half kee.

500
00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:25,760
Speaker 2: I mean like twenty to thirty sustained. It looks like

501
00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:29,600
Speaker 2: gusts hire all the points throughout a premium here, so

502
00:26:29,640 --> 00:26:32,720
Speaker 2: like getting over a field goal, and like DK Metcalf,

503
00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:34,840
Speaker 2: even when he doesn't have huge games, you could see

504
00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:37,800
Speaker 2: when they're like at the goal line or big big downs,

505
00:26:37,840 --> 00:26:43,159
Speaker 2: you have a safety usually cheated over his way right,

506
00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:47,159
Speaker 2: So everyone else becomes so much easier to defend. And

507
00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:50,560
Speaker 2: it's not like they have great man beaters. I mean,

508
00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:52,359
Speaker 2: who's whose Rogers is gonna be thrown? It's going to

509
00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:55,360
Speaker 2: be Scotty Miller and Adam Thielen.

510
00:26:55,520 --> 00:27:00,240
Speaker 1: And here's a question who who realistically has a better

511
00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:04,320
Speaker 1: wide receiving court in this matchup given that Metcalf is out,

512
00:27:04,320 --> 00:27:08,760
Speaker 1: because you have Roman Wilson, Valdez Gantling feeling Calvin Austin

513
00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:11,240
Speaker 1: who might be out, Ben Skerronic and Scotti Miller for

514
00:27:11,280 --> 00:27:15,440
Speaker 1: the Steelers, and then you have uh Jerry Judy, Cedric Tilbin,

515
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:21,000
Speaker 1: Isaiah bond Gage, Larvinan and Malachai Corley and potentially Jamari

516
00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:23,320
Speaker 1: Thrashes apparently back on the roster, like like who you

517
00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:28,080
Speaker 1: cleve might yeah, just because of like Judy right, just

518
00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:30,480
Speaker 1: probably the best receiver there, which is not saying much,

519
00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:33,160
Speaker 1: but uh yeah, that that that's that's notable.

520
00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:36,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I mean Steers having injuries on the defensive

521
00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:40,560
Speaker 2: side as well. We've seen their run defense get carved off.

522
00:27:40,600 --> 00:27:43,640
Speaker 2: That's what the now. Judkins is out for the Browns,

523
00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:46,720
Speaker 2: which is definitely concerning.

524
00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:49,000
Speaker 1: Sanders though Rocket standard that like him.

525
00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:52,199
Speaker 2: I love the way that he looked, so they're just

526
00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:54,800
Speaker 2: gonna try to pound him in short passes from Sanders.

527
00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:57,600
Speaker 2: But this is gonna be on the defense. I think

528
00:27:57,600 --> 00:27:59,800
Speaker 2: Garrett probably gets the record here. The defense is gonna

529
00:27:59,800 --> 00:28:03,240
Speaker 2: be stuff at home. Here's how this game plays out.

530
00:28:03,240 --> 00:28:03,600
Speaker 1: By the way.

531
00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:07,400
Speaker 2: Also, the Ravens play on Saturday night against the Packers.

532
00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:09,000
Speaker 2: I have no idea on that game because I don't

533
00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 2: even know it's being playing quarterback for either team if

534
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:17,200
Speaker 2: but the Packers are favored. If the Ravens lose, the

535
00:28:17,240 --> 00:28:26,879
Speaker 2: Steelers clinch the division. And maybe so. Right now, the

536
00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:30,040
Speaker 2: Steelers are nine and six. If the Ravens lose, they

537
00:28:30,040 --> 00:28:33,040
Speaker 2: fall to seven and nine. The best they can do

538
00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:37,080
Speaker 2: is eight to nine. They're at so that means the

539
00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:43,680
Speaker 2: Steelers on Sunday would be playing for nothing. So what

540
00:28:44,080 --> 00:28:47,560
Speaker 2: does that mean. Maybe it means nothing, but you're going

541
00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:51,280
Speaker 2: up against Miles Garrett, You're going up against the Browns defense.

542
00:28:51,320 --> 00:28:53,680
Speaker 2: There's no Metcalf, there's a ton of injuries, so that

543
00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:58,160
Speaker 2: probably means anyone who's questionable it sits to get healthy.

544
00:28:58,840 --> 00:29:03,240
Speaker 2: It also means, in these wins with Rogers the division

545
00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:05,880
Speaker 2: locked up. I mean, maybe you sit them, I doubt it,

546
00:29:06,240 --> 00:29:09,000
Speaker 2: But what you probably do is you just run into

547
00:29:09,040 --> 00:29:11,560
Speaker 2: a wall for the entire game and then this game

548
00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:15,480
Speaker 2: becomes even uglier, Like you're not dropping Rogers back, You're

549
00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:19,800
Speaker 2: not risking anything. The other scenario is that the Ravens

550
00:29:19,840 --> 00:29:24,520
Speaker 2: win on Saturday night, Steelers are going for the division.

551
00:29:24,800 --> 00:29:26,479
Speaker 2: And by the way, we see this every year, these

552
00:29:26,520 --> 00:29:29,440
Speaker 2: teams that need to win versus teams that are eliminated.

553
00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:32,440
Speaker 2: Thirty nine percent against the spread, So betting on the

554
00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:35,200
Speaker 2: team that has nothing to play for sixty one percent

555
00:29:35,200 --> 00:29:37,480
Speaker 2: against the spread historically on the over the final two

556
00:29:37,480 --> 00:29:39,760
Speaker 2: weeks of the regular season. I love backing these teams.

557
00:29:40,360 --> 00:29:43,320
Speaker 2: Also applies to the Vikings for what it's worth and

558
00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:51,640
Speaker 2: the Browns that stadium, that defense can potentially ruin the

559
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:55,520
Speaker 2: Steelers season making week eighteen. Them have to win Week eighteen,

560
00:29:55,760 --> 00:29:59,160
Speaker 2: you know that defense will be juiced up. So I

561
00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:01,960
Speaker 2: like it either way. But the more likely scenario is

562
00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:06,640
Speaker 2: the Ravens lose, they're underdogs and the Steelers might sit.

563
00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:09,520
Speaker 2: Some guys might change their game plan not put Rogers

564
00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:12,200
Speaker 2: at risk. There's he's even a small chance you rest Rogers.

565
00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:17,360
Speaker 2: But you have Metcalf suspended, Calvin Austin is banged up, Samolalu,

566
00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:20,280
Speaker 2: they're left guard there are they're left tackles already out.

567
00:30:20,320 --> 00:30:22,800
Speaker 2: I mean their offensive line right now is not in

568
00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:25,840
Speaker 2: great shape. What I don't think he's going to be

569
00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:31,240
Speaker 2: back her big Pierre Echos like, you have a lot

570
00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:35,480
Speaker 2: of guys that are banged up, and I would imagine

571
00:30:35,480 --> 00:30:38,600
Speaker 2: if they already have the division locked up, you sit them, right,

572
00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:41,920
Speaker 2: I mean anyone with an injury, so but low scoring game.

573
00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:47,920
Speaker 2: No metcalf I think is big Brown's home dogs always

574
00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:50,240
Speaker 2: intrigue me. Anything over field goals. Fine, here give me

575
00:30:50,280 --> 00:30:51,360
Speaker 2: Cleveland plus three and a half.

576
00:30:52,320 --> 00:30:57,680
Speaker 1: You know that it would be interesting if the Steelers end

577
00:30:57,760 --> 00:31:01,280
Speaker 1: up like being able to rest everybody. Right, that would

578
00:31:01,320 --> 00:31:02,680
Speaker 1: be Mason Rudolph, a quarterback.

579
00:31:02,760 --> 00:31:04,360
Speaker 2: Right, Garrett gets to.

580
00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:08,760
Speaker 1: Yours to say in the N word, I believe it

581
00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:10,560
Speaker 1: was to it like that would be, and hit him

582
00:31:10,560 --> 00:31:11,320
Speaker 1: in the head with the helmet.

583
00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:18,600
Speaker 2: And then Mason Rudolph Nathanson gets thrown out for uh

584
00:31:18,840 --> 00:31:22,200
Speaker 2: swinging a helmet, and then Will Howard comes.

585
00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:25,160
Speaker 1: In, Oh my god, yeah, this this could be an

586
00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:27,400
Speaker 1: every game. I mean I was as far as the

587
00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:30,360
Speaker 1: Browns go, it definite would be an every game.

588
00:31:31,280 --> 00:31:33,360
Speaker 2: Just like just now becomes the like this is one

589
00:31:33,360 --> 00:31:34,880
Speaker 2: of the reasons I like back in these teams. Is

590
00:31:36,160 --> 00:31:39,840
Speaker 2: like the Browns are three and twelve, and I mean

591
00:31:39,880 --> 00:31:42,080
Speaker 2: they're at Sincy to close the year. What a miserable

592
00:31:42,080 --> 00:31:44,680
Speaker 2: game that is. They're at home against the Steelers. This

593
00:31:44,880 --> 00:31:48,800
Speaker 2: is basically turns in to their super Bowl. They'll be

594
00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:52,760
Speaker 2: up for this the Garrett record chase. So you think

595
00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:55,080
Speaker 2: you'll get a decent crowd there's wins like the points

596
00:31:55,080 --> 00:32:00,200
Speaker 2: is this game could end ten nine. So yeah, yeah,

597
00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:04,680
Speaker 2: I I like the I like the Browns here. We

598
00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:10,959
Speaker 2: hopefully they'll get a little healthier, but we'll see if

599
00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:19,160
Speaker 2: Ward plays tell her Nadjoku, we'll see. Uh, Steelers are

600
00:32:19,160 --> 00:32:19,840
Speaker 2: far from healthy.

601
00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:23,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, tell her? Didn't they bench him? I don't know

602
00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:23,920
Speaker 1: what's going on with him?

603
00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:25,240
Speaker 2: And Jenkins is fine there.

604
00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:27,920
Speaker 1: I was just listening injury, Yeah yeah, and that same

605
00:32:27,960 --> 00:32:29,760
Speaker 1: thing when a joke. I'm just saying, I think it's

606
00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:31,640
Speaker 1: like more of a I wonder if it's more just

607
00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:34,880
Speaker 1: like not fully injury with tell her and a joker,

608
00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:37,360
Speaker 1: because both of them seemed like the kind of at

609
00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:39,600
Speaker 1: odds with the with the with the fan ski.

610
00:32:40,600 --> 00:32:45,600
Speaker 3: Uh yeah, I wouldn't. I wouldn't Browns would be I would.

611
00:32:45,960 --> 00:32:49,440
Speaker 1: I would honestly love if it was like closer to

612
00:32:49,560 --> 00:32:52,760
Speaker 1: you know, six and three, But still even Brown's there,

613
00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:55,000
Speaker 1: it's just you know, like the the brows on themes

614
00:32:55,040 --> 00:32:58,920
Speaker 1: that are just so bad that uh like they could

615
00:32:58,960 --> 00:33:01,560
Speaker 1: just have one of those complete meltdowns and even against

616
00:33:01,600 --> 00:33:04,920
Speaker 1: like a bad Steelers team, uh still end up just

617
00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:07,280
Speaker 1: getting blown out. But I doan Browns. I like the

618
00:33:07,640 --> 00:33:10,400
Speaker 1: the motivational angles, and I do think that their defense

619
00:33:10,440 --> 00:33:12,040
Speaker 1: shows up. And this Steelers it's kind of like with

620
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:14,360
Speaker 1: the Chiefs last week a little bit where I mean,

621
00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:17,760
Speaker 1: even if Rogers plays, I mean you have Rogers a

622
00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:20,880
Speaker 1: pretty average to baby even below average O line. Uh,

623
00:33:21,120 --> 00:33:23,440
Speaker 1: and your always strength is your running backs. Really, I

624
00:33:23,440 --> 00:33:25,400
Speaker 1: mean that's the difference between the Chiefs that didn't have that.

625
00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:27,920
Speaker 1: But yeah, like you don't really have much there because

626
00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:30,680
Speaker 1: this receiving court is straight poverty. The tight ends, I

627
00:33:30,680 --> 00:33:33,160
Speaker 1: mean against them more man heavy defense, I don't think

628
00:33:33,200 --> 00:33:35,680
Speaker 1: they're gonna do as much as they've done in some

629
00:33:35,720 --> 00:33:37,960
Speaker 1: of these other matchups, and then they've I mean they're

630
00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:39,480
Speaker 1: be getting a lot of it, just like backs and

631
00:33:39,800 --> 00:33:42,920
Speaker 1: tight end runs. So it's really it just really comes

632
00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:45,880
Speaker 1: down to kind of Steelers, like do the Steers just

633
00:33:45,920 --> 00:33:48,040
Speaker 1: make shud or Standers have a complete vomit game. But

634
00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:51,600
Speaker 1: they're only like I think they're like three and ten

635
00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:58,360
Speaker 1: now without TJ. Watt, So you know, I think a tackle.

636
00:34:00,200 --> 00:34:03,360
Speaker 2: Her big banged out. That's that's important because there will

637
00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:05,040
Speaker 2: be a driver to will Shador will take like thirty

638
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:09,799
Speaker 2: yards and sacks. So but the Cleveland run devent still

639
00:34:10,000 --> 00:34:12,040
Speaker 2: for the season. That's one of the best run defenses

640
00:34:12,080 --> 00:34:14,279
Speaker 2: in the NFL. I mean last week cook out of

641
00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:16,720
Speaker 2: fifty yarder. But other than that, the Bills at twenty

642
00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:18,360
Speaker 2: eight carries for one hundred and ten yards and the

643
00:34:18,360 --> 00:34:20,520
Speaker 2: Bills of one of the better rushing offenses in the NFL.

644
00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:25,520
Speaker 2: So I think they can hold their own there. And yeah,

645
00:34:25,560 --> 00:34:26,920
Speaker 2: so give me Cleveland. Where you going next.

646
00:34:27,920 --> 00:34:29,879
Speaker 1: We'll get to the second half of the six pack

647
00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:32,919
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674
00:35:52,840 --> 00:35:57,120
Speaker 1: my second pick fourth overall the week seventeen Sunday six pack,

675
00:35:57,760 --> 00:35:59,759
Speaker 1: I'm going with the Indianapolis Cops plus six and a

676
00:35:59,800 --> 00:36:04,480
Speaker 1: half at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Uh was on

677
00:36:04,480 --> 00:36:07,879
Speaker 1: the wrong side of the Coats last I guess last night,

678
00:36:08,040 --> 00:36:10,160
Speaker 1: Uh doubt, I guess that was just a bad call

679
00:36:10,239 --> 00:36:12,840
Speaker 1: to nine. It's just too much time to prepare an offense.

680
00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:16,719
Speaker 1: They just I mean every possession was just up and

681
00:36:16,760 --> 00:36:19,279
Speaker 1: down the field for San Francisco, So I guess it

682
00:36:19,320 --> 00:36:20,279
Speaker 1: could get scary here.

683
00:36:20,760 --> 00:36:24,160
Speaker 2: I mean the Colts too, there was their offense was good,

684
00:36:24,560 --> 00:36:27,600
Speaker 2: Uh was was good enough? There was two the fumble

685
00:36:27,640 --> 00:36:30,480
Speaker 2: and the kickoff. There's seven points in a game where

686
00:36:30,520 --> 00:36:32,279
Speaker 2: you weren'tetting any stops. And then there was a sack

687
00:36:32,360 --> 00:36:34,319
Speaker 2: fumble that they needed to get but to turn into

688
00:36:34,320 --> 00:36:36,680
Speaker 2: a twelve yard game. Those two and then there was

689
00:36:36,719 --> 00:36:38,839
Speaker 2: a pick six, but that game was already decided by

690
00:36:38,840 --> 00:36:44,799
Speaker 2: that point. But the defense, that was incredibly sad. The

691
00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:48,480
Speaker 2: defensive effort. Yeah, Colts, I mean like they no one

692
00:36:48,480 --> 00:36:51,160
Speaker 2: showed up the emotion from everyone I know that they

693
00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:53,160
Speaker 2: lost their center and they were without They said they

694
00:36:53,200 --> 00:36:55,560
Speaker 2: only had one offensive lineman in their starting position, but like,

695
00:36:55,920 --> 00:36:58,000
Speaker 2: where was the emotion. The only guy who seemed the

696
00:36:58,040 --> 00:37:02,080
Speaker 2: care in your season on the line was Rivers and

697
00:37:02,320 --> 00:37:03,920
Speaker 2: the guy that you just forty four year old got

698
00:37:03,920 --> 00:37:05,600
Speaker 2: you just signed off the couch. It was really Died

699
00:37:05,680 --> 00:37:07,680
Speaker 2: Died the Cults to his disappointing, he.

700
00:37:07,640 --> 00:37:09,200
Speaker 1: Was just yeah, he was charving at the raft so

701
00:37:09,200 --> 00:37:12,200
Speaker 1: I was I was enjoying Rivers. That's def fumble though

702
00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:13,759
Speaker 1: I don't know there was like a fumble he had.

703
00:37:13,880 --> 00:37:16,200
Speaker 1: I think they ended up recovering it. But like that

704
00:37:16,360 --> 00:37:17,560
Speaker 1: was like what we were worried about. It was like

705
00:37:17,640 --> 00:37:19,840
Speaker 1: it was like a slow motion like you're playing Madden

706
00:37:19,880 --> 00:37:21,600
Speaker 1: on slow and he was just like his arm was

707
00:37:21,680 --> 00:37:25,319
Speaker 1: forward in the bouse like but no overall, So just

708
00:37:25,360 --> 00:37:29,239
Speaker 1: for some context here Rivers right now. Now you know,

709
00:37:29,360 --> 00:37:32,320
Speaker 1: obviously small sample, but I mean everyone was thinking, like

710
00:37:32,360 --> 00:37:34,840
Speaker 1: the market was essentially think at Rivers is like the

711
00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:38,399
Speaker 1: worst possible quarterback. Like his passing yardage prop I think

712
00:37:38,600 --> 00:37:42,040
Speaker 1: against the terrible Niners d H there's no pressure was

713
00:37:43,000 --> 00:37:44,600
Speaker 1: one sixty or something like that. I think he was

714
00:37:44,640 --> 00:37:46,760
Speaker 1: over that in the first half. But he's twenty third

715
00:37:46,960 --> 00:37:53,640
Speaker 1: in UH expected points added completion percentage over expectation composite,

716
00:37:53,719 --> 00:37:55,400
Speaker 1: like just out of all quarterbacks that you know have

717
00:37:55,400 --> 00:37:57,880
Speaker 1: had at least twenty drop backs. Because it's a small sample,

718
00:37:57,920 --> 00:38:00,200
Speaker 1: but like he's not he hasn't been like just this

719
00:38:00,719 --> 00:38:04,080
Speaker 1: oh man, like he's just like a Brozemer level or

720
00:38:04,120 --> 00:38:06,920
Speaker 1: like well, you know, third string level kind of quarterback.

721
00:38:06,960 --> 00:38:08,799
Speaker 1: Like he's been solid and he looked a lot better

722
00:38:09,280 --> 00:38:12,680
Speaker 1: on Monday night. He made some good throws, accurate throws

723
00:38:12,680 --> 00:38:14,680
Speaker 1: that it doesn't look pretty coming out of his hands always,

724
00:38:14,719 --> 00:38:17,680
Speaker 1: But in an adjusted EPA for play, he would rank

725
00:38:17,719 --> 00:38:22,880
Speaker 1: twentieth out of all quarterbacks. And in just regular EPA

726
00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:26,160
Speaker 1: for play he's above he's about point oh three, which

727
00:38:26,200 --> 00:38:28,640
Speaker 1: is you know he's at he's still adding points. That's

728
00:38:28,680 --> 00:38:33,200
Speaker 1: for reference, that's right around to Kobe Brissett and Jayden Daniels.

729
00:38:33,200 --> 00:38:37,319
Speaker 1: So you know, not great but not certainly not terrible US.

730
00:38:37,560 --> 00:38:40,640
Speaker 1: And now you're talking about a division game at home

731
00:38:40,680 --> 00:38:44,640
Speaker 1: for the Kochs, another home game for them. Uh, and

732
00:38:45,600 --> 00:38:49,040
Speaker 1: this is this team, so obviously you're not like Daniel

733
00:38:49,120 --> 00:38:51,640
Speaker 1: Jones was playing really well this year. River is not

734
00:38:51,719 --> 00:38:54,399
Speaker 1: gonna be on that level. But competent quarterback play from

735
00:38:54,480 --> 00:38:57,759
Speaker 1: this team. The defense won't always be that bad. Like

736
00:38:57,840 --> 00:38:59,560
Speaker 1: I really don't know what that was. Sometimes you see

737
00:38:59,560 --> 00:39:03,080
Speaker 1: that though in these interconference games, like they tend to,

738
00:39:03,520 --> 00:39:06,440
Speaker 1: you know, not as much familiarity. You know, Gylex Shanahan

739
00:39:06,560 --> 00:39:08,880
Speaker 1: just ran circles around that defense. But this is a

740
00:39:08,960 --> 00:39:12,120
Speaker 1: division game, second division game. Coach in a revenge spot.

741
00:39:12,120 --> 00:39:15,120
Speaker 1: I think they show up here and the Coats on

742
00:39:15,239 --> 00:39:18,920
Speaker 1: the year fourth and DVOA overall Jacksonville fifth, So the

743
00:39:19,000 --> 00:39:21,439
Speaker 1: coach was still a very good team, very talented team.

744
00:39:21,440 --> 00:39:24,360
Speaker 1: I know they have some injuries, but you know, they'll

745
00:39:24,360 --> 00:39:28,239
Speaker 1: probably use Moiley Cows as a second blocker if they

746
00:39:28,239 --> 00:39:31,359
Speaker 1: need to, or use Abdulla or Tailor to block there.

747
00:39:31,520 --> 00:39:33,319
Speaker 1: So I think Rivers will still get the ball, be

748
00:39:33,360 --> 00:39:34,799
Speaker 1: able to get the ball out, and the important thing

749
00:39:34,920 --> 00:39:37,640
Speaker 1: is he could still place it accurately, which I was

750
00:39:37,920 --> 00:39:40,160
Speaker 1: really worried about even coming into last night. So I

751
00:39:40,200 --> 00:39:42,680
Speaker 1: just think this is too many points for a post

752
00:39:42,680 --> 00:39:46,839
Speaker 1: team that is still pretty talented and on the ropes now,

753
00:39:46,880 --> 00:39:50,120
Speaker 1: you know, desperate spot in a second division game at home,

754
00:39:50,440 --> 00:39:53,560
Speaker 1: you know, catching six and a half against this Jaguar

755
00:39:53,600 --> 00:39:57,160
Speaker 1: team that has been very good but we love the Jags,

756
00:39:57,719 --> 00:40:00,400
Speaker 1: but not as good on the road and coming off

757
00:40:00,560 --> 00:40:04,279
Speaker 1: just a really really big win against the Broncos, but

758
00:40:04,360 --> 00:40:06,479
Speaker 1: they got out game four forty five to three forty

759
00:40:06,520 --> 00:40:10,000
Speaker 1: six in that game. Before that, they had played the Jets, Colts, Titans,

760
00:40:10,040 --> 00:40:13,320
Speaker 1: and Cardinals and charges with no O want so Jaduars.

761
00:40:13,360 --> 00:40:15,360
Speaker 1: You know, I do see a bit of a letdown

762
00:40:15,360 --> 00:40:18,600
Speaker 1: spot here. I know it's coming like everyone's just oh Man.

763
00:40:18,640 --> 00:40:20,440
Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence Lean called, I mean, we were saying this

764
00:40:20,480 --> 00:40:23,640
Speaker 1: before the season started, but I think this is potentially

765
00:40:23,640 --> 00:40:25,360
Speaker 1: the peak of the market for the Jags and and

766
00:40:25,400 --> 00:40:27,400
Speaker 1: the low for the Colts. Now that they're only a

767
00:40:27,400 --> 00:40:29,799
Speaker 1: game about five hundred they just got blown out on

768
00:40:30,080 --> 00:40:33,600
Speaker 1: in prime time, everyone thinks they're essentially done. I think

769
00:40:33,600 --> 00:40:35,000
Speaker 1: they show up here in the didgy games. Give me

770
00:40:35,000 --> 00:40:38,000
Speaker 1: the Colts plus six and a half teams off. We

771
00:40:38,040 --> 00:40:41,960
Speaker 1: also like teams off blowouts, and also the Jags have

772
00:40:42,280 --> 00:40:45,040
Speaker 1: they're on a big against the spread winning streak. We've

773
00:40:45,080 --> 00:40:47,480
Speaker 1: they've won five in a row against the spread. Teams

774
00:40:47,480 --> 00:40:51,040
Speaker 1: on three games or more, well, teams of three games

775
00:40:51,080 --> 00:40:53,480
Speaker 1: are more on thirty plus points two Those are fifty

776
00:40:53,520 --> 00:40:55,719
Speaker 1: to thirty six fifty eight percent against the spread, but

777
00:40:55,840 --> 00:40:59,239
Speaker 1: home dogs by more than a field goal that got

778
00:40:59,239 --> 00:41:01,840
Speaker 1: blown out by twenty or more in the previous game

779
00:41:02,360 --> 00:41:06,320
Speaker 1: one twelve seventy one and two sixty one percent against

780
00:41:06,400 --> 00:41:10,280
Speaker 1: the spread. Going back over more than the last two decades,

781
00:41:10,560 --> 00:41:14,480
Speaker 1: underdog just off losses of twenty plus period are one

782
00:41:14,560 --> 00:41:17,160
Speaker 1: seventy and one thirty one with nine pushes fifty six

783
00:41:17,200 --> 00:41:21,040
Speaker 1: percent over the last two decades. So this is like

784
00:41:21,080 --> 00:41:23,480
Speaker 1: a nice spot I think for the Coast to bounce back.

785
00:41:23,840 --> 00:41:25,960
Speaker 1: But I also don't think they're quite as bad as

786
00:41:25,960 --> 00:41:28,719
Speaker 1: the market thinks. We're rivers. And this is divisional second

787
00:41:28,719 --> 00:41:30,520
Speaker 1: divisional home game, it's gonna be Indianapolis.

788
00:41:31,640 --> 00:41:35,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll probably be honest with you. But my only

789
00:41:35,320 --> 00:41:40,600
Speaker 2: concern about that in this now is this is so

790
00:41:40,640 --> 00:41:42,880
Speaker 2: it's sitting at six and a half that I wouldn't matter

791
00:41:42,960 --> 00:41:47,400
Speaker 2: for the contest. But it's a US goner. He's he

792
00:41:47,480 --> 00:41:48,319
Speaker 2: shut down for the year.

793
00:41:49,000 --> 00:41:52,120
Speaker 1: He might be. It's it's not looking great. It's not

794
00:41:52,120 --> 00:41:53,719
Speaker 1: looking great for him. You know, they got Butner back,

795
00:41:53,719 --> 00:41:57,520
Speaker 1: but yeah, borders on ir Gardner. It doesn't. It doesn't

796
00:41:57,520 --> 00:41:59,919
Speaker 1: seem it doesn't seem too promising, So that that's a concern.

797
00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:00,879
Speaker 1: And obviously, but.

798
00:42:00,920 --> 00:42:03,960
Speaker 2: My so the I was just wondering that out. But

799
00:42:05,680 --> 00:42:08,560
Speaker 2: the so the Colts will be eliminated if the Texans

800
00:42:08,560 --> 00:42:13,239
Speaker 2: win on Saturday, and if that happens, a lot of

801
00:42:13,600 --> 00:42:17,680
Speaker 2: you might see money come in against the Colts. I

802
00:42:17,719 --> 00:42:19,839
Speaker 2: don't care about that. And I love betting against teams

803
00:42:19,840 --> 00:42:22,560
Speaker 2: that have nothing to play four against teams that do,

804
00:42:22,840 --> 00:42:25,719
Speaker 2: and a lot of times it's because you get you know,

805
00:42:25,760 --> 00:42:27,640
Speaker 2: maybe an extra point here or there, So I might

806
00:42:27,680 --> 00:42:30,000
Speaker 2: wait to see if a seven pops yep, if that's

807
00:42:30,040 --> 00:42:32,680
Speaker 2: the case, because I mean, look, I just bet the

808
00:42:32,680 --> 00:42:34,040
Speaker 2: Colts plus six and a half at home against the

809
00:42:34,080 --> 00:42:36,800
Speaker 2: Niners the close four. So now we're saying, like the

810
00:42:36,920 --> 00:42:38,799
Speaker 2: Jags are two and a half better than the forty

811
00:42:38,880 --> 00:42:42,640
Speaker 2: nine ers on the neutral. No. I know it's a

812
00:42:42,680 --> 00:42:44,320
Speaker 2: short week, but the Jags are coming off of a

813
00:42:44,360 --> 00:42:46,040
Speaker 2: road game at Denver. I don't think the team's covered

814
00:42:46,040 --> 00:42:50,600
Speaker 2: at They're playing in Denver all year. So yeah, I

815
00:42:50,600 --> 00:42:53,680
Speaker 2: mean this is like by low Sell high. Yeah, betting

816
00:42:53,760 --> 00:42:56,400
Speaker 2: NFL one oh one. So I'll probably you on that.

817
00:42:56,400 --> 00:42:59,120
Speaker 2: By the way, the Colts path is insane if you're

818
00:42:59,160 --> 00:43:02,840
Speaker 2: like a die ard cold. So if in order for

819
00:43:02,880 --> 00:43:04,319
Speaker 2: the Colts to get in, they ask they need the

820
00:43:04,360 --> 00:43:07,359
Speaker 2: Texans to lose this week against the Chargers, they need

821
00:43:07,360 --> 00:43:11,080
Speaker 2: the cult, and then the Colts need to beat the Jags,

822
00:43:11,120 --> 00:43:13,960
Speaker 2: And then if the Colts beat the Texans in Week eighteen,

823
00:43:14,719 --> 00:43:17,680
Speaker 2: then both teams would be ten and seven, splitting the

824
00:43:17,680 --> 00:43:21,440
Speaker 2: season series, have the same division record, the same conference record,

825
00:43:21,480 --> 00:43:24,000
Speaker 2: the same record in common games, So then it comes

826
00:43:24,040 --> 00:43:27,240
Speaker 2: down the strength of victory, and their strength of victory

827
00:43:27,320 --> 00:43:31,480
Speaker 2: right now is like it's one it's they're separated by

828
00:43:31,560 --> 00:43:34,600
Speaker 2: one win. Like that's how it's four forty two win

829
00:43:34,640 --> 00:43:37,759
Speaker 2: percentage of four thirty eight. There's a chance that gets hot,

830
00:43:37,920 --> 00:43:40,120
Speaker 2: that gets tied, and then it goes to strength of schedule,

831
00:43:40,120 --> 00:43:43,799
Speaker 2: which is they're basically the same. There's a chance that's tied,

832
00:43:44,320 --> 00:43:46,279
Speaker 2: Like there's a mathematical chance that's tied, and then it

833
00:43:46,280 --> 00:43:50,879
Speaker 2: goes down to like best combined ranking among it there's

834
00:43:50,920 --> 00:43:55,680
Speaker 2: some crazy thing. So like the if you're a Colt,

835
00:43:55,719 --> 00:43:58,440
Speaker 2: you don't even know all these games. Like if you

836
00:43:58,480 --> 00:44:01,880
Speaker 2: go you can like plot all this out like that

837
00:44:01,960 --> 00:44:03,840
Speaker 2: one of the most important games for the Colts this

838
00:44:03,840 --> 00:44:10,120
Speaker 2: week is like the Bucks Dolphins, and like Bears Niners.

839
00:44:11,400 --> 00:44:15,759
Speaker 2: These are the games that matter Rams, Falcons, Ravens, Packers,

840
00:44:15,880 --> 00:44:22,400
Speaker 2: Broncos Chiefs. So yeah, and then like in week eighteen,

841
00:44:22,520 --> 00:44:25,239
Speaker 2: like Miami, New England, New Orleans, Atlanta, like all these

842
00:44:25,280 --> 00:44:28,560
Speaker 2: games matter for the strength of victory. So pretty wild.

843
00:44:29,600 --> 00:44:32,400
Speaker 1: It's I mean, all I know is that are are

844
00:44:32,480 --> 00:44:35,319
Speaker 1: Jags are looking good for the division? And are are

845
00:44:35,400 --> 00:44:38,239
Speaker 1: Bears are looking good for the division? So those are

846
00:44:38,320 --> 00:44:41,160
Speaker 1: two like kind of upset division bets that we that

847
00:44:41,239 --> 00:44:42,920
Speaker 1: we made before the year. So yeah, I have.

848
00:44:42,960 --> 00:44:45,719
Speaker 2: Three upset teams, three long shots that I invested in,

849
00:44:45,760 --> 00:44:51,520
Speaker 2: which was the Cardinals, Jags, and Bears. So hopefully get

850
00:44:51,560 --> 00:44:54,759
Speaker 2: two of them. But yeah, the the if the strength

851
00:44:54,800 --> 00:44:56,520
Speaker 2: of victory and track the schedules tied, I don't remember

852
00:44:56,560 --> 00:44:58,959
Speaker 2: that ever happening. It goes to best combined ranking among

853
00:44:59,040 --> 00:45:01,960
Speaker 2: conference teams in point scored end points allowed in all games.

854
00:45:02,000 --> 00:45:06,560
Speaker 2: I don't even know what that means. Best combined ranking

855
00:45:06,600 --> 00:45:09,640
Speaker 2: among conference teams in point differential. Oh, that's just points

856
00:45:09,640 --> 00:45:10,879
Speaker 2: differential of.

857
00:45:10,880 --> 00:45:15,359
Speaker 1: The of your of your con conference conference opponents. Yeah, yeah,

858
00:45:16,520 --> 00:45:19,560
Speaker 1: your conference games. Is said for opponents or for them.

859
00:45:19,640 --> 00:45:23,400
Speaker 2: Is best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored

860
00:45:23,440 --> 00:45:26,680
Speaker 2: and points allowed in all games. So that seems like,

861
00:45:26,960 --> 00:45:27,600
Speaker 2: why would that be.

862
00:45:27,960 --> 00:45:31,600
Speaker 1: Your opponents your opponents? I guess if your strength to schedule,

863
00:45:31,880 --> 00:45:35,280
Speaker 1: your opponent point differential, your your conference opponent point differential,

864
00:45:36,960 --> 00:45:39,520
Speaker 1: so your conference opponent strength of schedule. It's like instead

865
00:45:39,520 --> 00:45:42,040
Speaker 1: of going from your strength to schedule, now you're looking

866
00:45:42,040 --> 00:45:44,200
Speaker 1: at your opponent strength of schedule because you're already tied

867
00:45:44,200 --> 00:45:46,000
Speaker 1: in your own strength of schedule is I think what

868
00:45:46,000 --> 00:45:48,040
Speaker 1: they're trying to I think what they're trying to say

869
00:45:48,040 --> 00:45:49,719
Speaker 1: to You're right, that is a that is a.

870
00:45:50,120 --> 00:45:57,320
Speaker 2: Point differential for the Texans right now is ninety seven.

871
00:45:57,640 --> 00:46:01,319
Speaker 2: The Colts are sixty eight. Sixty eight, So no.

872
00:46:01,320 --> 00:46:03,000
Speaker 1: But I think I think it's still the point confronial

873
00:46:03,080 --> 00:46:04,360
Speaker 1: of their opponents.

874
00:46:04,400 --> 00:46:06,359
Speaker 2: I'm saying, yeah, any conference games, I don't know, I've

875
00:46:06,360 --> 00:46:09,000
Speaker 2: never seen. Yeah, it would take a lot for that

876
00:46:09,120 --> 00:46:11,480
Speaker 2: to be tied to But whatever. All right, let's move

877
00:46:11,520 --> 00:46:13,759
Speaker 2: on for my third pick in the fifth overall the week,

878
00:46:13,840 --> 00:46:19,839
Speaker 2: seventeen Sunday six back. I'm going with the Buffalo Bills

879
00:46:19,880 --> 00:46:22,880
Speaker 2: minus one and a half or some minus one out there,

880
00:46:22,880 --> 00:46:25,839
Speaker 2: it doesn't matter for the contest. We'll go minus one

881
00:46:25,840 --> 00:46:29,560
Speaker 2: and a half. Not much to this, to be honest,

882
00:46:31,320 --> 00:46:33,600
Speaker 2: Josh Allen at home needs to win a game as

883
00:46:33,640 --> 00:46:35,960
Speaker 2: a dog or a favorite. Wonder Ifield goal Josh Allen

884
00:46:35,960 --> 00:46:39,520
Speaker 2: thirty one, fourteen and two against the spread, the most

885
00:46:39,520 --> 00:46:42,160
Speaker 2: profitable quarterback in the history of the NFL as an

886
00:46:42,239 --> 00:46:45,120
Speaker 2: underdoger favorite of less than three. Do any Allen to

887
00:46:45,160 --> 00:46:49,880
Speaker 2: win at home? That's it? Yes, So the Eagles might

888
00:46:49,920 --> 00:46:53,000
Speaker 2: get Lane Johnson and Jalen quarterback. I don't know why

889
00:46:53,040 --> 00:46:55,040
Speaker 2: they would rush them back, but it seems like they're

890
00:46:55,080 --> 00:46:57,960
Speaker 2: trending towards playing they've they already clinched the division. That

891
00:46:58,000 --> 00:47:01,840
Speaker 2: would obviously help. But do I think this Eagles offense

892
00:47:01,920 --> 00:47:05,400
Speaker 2: is fixed because they scored a bunch of points against

893
00:47:05,400 --> 00:47:10,319
Speaker 2: the Raiders and Commanders. No, I do not. They look

894
00:47:10,800 --> 00:47:13,160
Speaker 2: I think they're maybe trending a little better because Hurts

895
00:47:13,200 --> 00:47:15,560
Speaker 2: is using his legs more, which I think is important.

896
00:47:16,160 --> 00:47:19,799
Speaker 2: But this is until I see it against the end.

897
00:47:19,800 --> 00:47:21,600
Speaker 2: The Bills aren't a great defense, but they're going to

898
00:47:21,640 --> 00:47:23,840
Speaker 2: play a ton of zone. They're gonna limit explosive plays.

899
00:47:23,840 --> 00:47:29,279
Speaker 2: And until I see this Eagles offense do anything consistently

900
00:47:29,320 --> 00:47:32,960
Speaker 2: against the competent defense, I'm not going to believe in it.

901
00:47:33,640 --> 00:47:37,000
Speaker 2: And it's Allen at home. It's not that like now

902
00:47:37,200 --> 00:47:40,440
Speaker 2: tight end The Eagles do shutdown tight ends. The Bills

903
00:47:40,440 --> 00:47:42,840
Speaker 2: don't have great receivers on the outside to take advantage

904
00:47:42,880 --> 00:47:48,359
Speaker 2: of the Eagles number two corner spot. But this is

905
00:47:48,760 --> 00:47:51,320
Speaker 2: Josh Allen at home, needing to win a game against

906
00:47:51,360 --> 00:47:54,880
Speaker 2: what I consider still a broken Eagles offense, and this

907
00:47:54,960 --> 00:47:56,800
Speaker 2: is a tough week. There's still a lot of injuries.

908
00:47:57,840 --> 00:47:59,600
Speaker 2: So that's that was the last thing that I like,

909
00:47:59,680 --> 00:48:01,800
Speaker 2: I mean, the other we'll go through the rest of

910
00:48:01,840 --> 00:48:07,680
Speaker 2: the games. I mean from a side perspective, maybe the

911
00:48:08,239 --> 00:48:10,239
Speaker 2: I mean the other was there wasn't anything else one

912
00:48:10,360 --> 00:48:15,319
Speaker 2: you're you're gonna talk about next but on Sunday and

913
00:48:15,520 --> 00:48:18,560
Speaker 2: uh Saturday, Braven's Packers. I don't even know who's gonna

914
00:48:18,560 --> 00:48:20,279
Speaker 2: play quarterbacks. There's not much I can do. There's still

915
00:48:20,280 --> 00:48:23,040
Speaker 2: a lot of injury stuff. But you're gonna just give

916
00:48:23,040 --> 00:48:25,560
Speaker 2: me Josh Allen to win a game at home. I'm

917
00:48:25,800 --> 00:48:27,400
Speaker 2: gonna take them more time than not to give me

918
00:48:27,440 --> 00:48:28,280
Speaker 2: the bills.

919
00:48:29,120 --> 00:48:31,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's bills are right side. I was I was

920
00:48:31,480 --> 00:48:33,840
Speaker 1: thinking about I was thinking about goall with them to

921
00:48:34,280 --> 00:48:37,279
Speaker 1: just hate fading the Eagles. They they're one of those

922
00:48:37,280 --> 00:48:39,879
Speaker 1: teams that just seems to like pop up right when

923
00:48:39,880 --> 00:48:42,400
Speaker 1: you but when you think they're dead. But I do

924
00:48:42,520 --> 00:48:44,200
Speaker 1: think they I mean, I would think they would be

925
00:48:44,239 --> 00:48:47,040
Speaker 1: smart to not go super hard in this game, just because,

926
00:48:47,120 --> 00:48:49,200
Speaker 1: like you said, they're a little bit banged up. They

927
00:48:49,239 --> 00:48:53,080
Speaker 1: got the division under wraps and suddenly looking real live again.

928
00:48:53,239 --> 00:48:55,440
Speaker 1: There's a time when I was like, ah Man Eagles

929
00:48:55,440 --> 00:48:57,440
Speaker 1: and the Lions are not like they're not carrying it

930
00:48:57,480 --> 00:48:59,680
Speaker 1: over this year. Lions are still on the brink, but

931
00:49:00,000 --> 00:49:04,040
Speaker 1: Eagles back in, back in decent position here. But yeah,

932
00:49:04,080 --> 00:49:05,279
Speaker 1: I think the Bills are the right side. I do

933
00:49:05,320 --> 00:49:06,960
Speaker 1: worry about their run defense now that the Eagles have

934
00:49:07,000 --> 00:49:08,719
Speaker 1: fixed it seems like they figured some things out on

935
00:49:08,760 --> 00:49:10,719
Speaker 1: the on the ground, Bills defense is not good this year.

936
00:49:10,760 --> 00:49:13,239
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm kind of disappointed because I know, did

937
00:49:13,239 --> 00:49:15,680
Speaker 1: you have a like a super Bowl ticket on them too?

938
00:49:15,719 --> 00:49:18,200
Speaker 1: I think we talked about them as a seed. Uh, yeah,

939
00:49:18,280 --> 00:49:19,800
Speaker 1: so I have a super Bowl ticket on them, and

940
00:49:19,840 --> 00:49:22,120
Speaker 1: I'm just I'm thinking they're like sitting pretty with the

941
00:49:22,200 --> 00:49:25,000
Speaker 1: Ravens and the Chiefs probably out, but their defense is

942
00:49:25,000 --> 00:49:27,920
Speaker 1: been awful. But yeah, I do think I do think

943
00:49:27,920 --> 00:49:30,760
Speaker 1: they're the right side because I think this Eagles offense

944
00:49:31,040 --> 00:49:34,160
Speaker 1: is still going to struck especially Bills don't heavier team.

945
00:49:34,200 --> 00:49:35,839
Speaker 1: You can still see some of those issues for Hurts

946
00:49:35,960 --> 00:49:36,640
Speaker 1: sweep back up.

947
00:49:36,680 --> 00:49:40,480
Speaker 2: But the other thing is their Eagles kicker might be broken,

948
00:49:40,880 --> 00:49:41,600
Speaker 2: could come into play.

949
00:49:41,760 --> 00:49:43,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think we're talking about that last week. It's

950
00:49:43,640 --> 00:49:47,919
Speaker 1: like what is going on with Jake Elliot especially another outdoor. Yeah,

951
00:49:48,400 --> 00:49:51,560
Speaker 1: that's that's something to watch for the for the playoffs.

952
00:49:51,600 --> 00:49:55,960
Speaker 1: But for my third and final pick, the sixth overall

953
00:49:56,000 --> 00:49:59,120
Speaker 1: of the week seventeen six pack, I'm going with the

954
00:49:59,160 --> 00:50:01,560
Speaker 1: Carolina Panthers plus seven and a half at home against

955
00:50:01,560 --> 00:50:06,359
Speaker 1: the Seattle Seahawks. Now, I just this number is too big.

956
00:50:06,920 --> 00:50:10,200
Speaker 1: The Panthers, for what is worth, are not as good

957
00:50:10,200 --> 00:50:11,960
Speaker 1: as their record. Let's get that out of the way.

958
00:50:12,040 --> 00:50:15,880
Speaker 1: You know, they they've been getting lucky to They've been

959
00:50:15,880 --> 00:50:18,120
Speaker 1: geting some lucky wins here. They are what's their point

960
00:50:18,160 --> 00:50:22,920
Speaker 1: different so minus fifty. Yeah, so they're minus fifty in

961
00:50:22,920 --> 00:50:24,799
Speaker 1: their eight seven. So like I'm not trying to say

962
00:50:24,800 --> 00:50:27,880
Speaker 1: the Panthers are you know this this Oh, they're the

963
00:50:27,920 --> 00:50:30,680
Speaker 1: class of the NFC South. I think the Bucks tooke

964
00:50:30,719 --> 00:50:33,600
Speaker 1: the way that game last week. But Seahawks also have

965
00:50:33,640 --> 00:50:36,759
Speaker 1: been getting lucky. They were running extremely hot. They won

966
00:50:36,880 --> 00:50:39,200
Speaker 1: nine out of ten. I mean, they're just they're just

967
00:50:39,280 --> 00:50:40,600
Speaker 1: it's kind of like it kind of reminds me of

968
00:50:40,640 --> 00:50:44,160
Speaker 1: the Vikings down to stretch last year where they were

969
00:50:44,200 --> 00:50:46,000
Speaker 1: just hot with Donald and then it's like the last

970
00:50:46,040 --> 00:50:47,799
Speaker 1: couple of games of the year kind of fell apart

971
00:50:47,800 --> 00:50:51,879
Speaker 1: a little bit. But Seahawks get the return last week

972
00:50:51,880 --> 00:50:53,759
Speaker 1: they you know, ram ended up firing their special teams

973
00:50:53,760 --> 00:50:57,040
Speaker 1: coordinator after that. But Seahalks were down two touchdowns with

974
00:50:57,480 --> 00:51:01,279
Speaker 1: you know in the in the fourth quarter of sixteen. Yeah,

975
00:51:01,320 --> 00:51:04,840
Speaker 1: down sixteen two touchdows and to two point conversions, I

976
00:51:04,840 --> 00:51:07,360
Speaker 1: should add and uh, and then they win on a

977
00:51:07,440 --> 00:51:09,279
Speaker 1: on a two point conversion. So I mean that that

978
00:51:09,520 --> 00:51:13,520
Speaker 1: is lucking itself right there. The week before that, they

979
00:51:13,880 --> 00:51:16,280
Speaker 1: beat the coach with philp Rivers in his first start

980
00:51:16,560 --> 00:51:19,759
Speaker 1: in five years, by two points, two points. Then they

981
00:51:19,760 --> 00:51:22,200
Speaker 1: had a field goal way to do it, you know,

982
00:51:22,280 --> 00:51:26,200
Speaker 1: And then they faced the Rosmer Vikings, the Cousin falcon Is,

983
00:51:27,560 --> 00:51:32,640
Speaker 1: the Titans where they won by six, the Brissette Cardinals.

984
00:51:32,800 --> 00:51:36,480
Speaker 1: The Commanders with was that I don't even remember who

985
00:51:36,520 --> 00:51:40,279
Speaker 1: that was, Daniels. Dan's got hurting that game. So I

986
00:51:40,360 --> 00:51:42,400
Speaker 1: mean it's really it really hasn't been much in the

987
00:51:42,440 --> 00:51:45,600
Speaker 1: way of competition. I think Donald is still trending down.

988
00:51:46,120 --> 00:51:48,040
Speaker 1: You know, everyone's gonna kind of be like, oh man

989
00:51:48,280 --> 00:51:50,800
Speaker 1: coming off that last that last game. But again, essentially

990
00:51:50,840 --> 00:51:54,240
Speaker 1: he turned the ball over still at you know, close

991
00:51:54,280 --> 00:51:56,960
Speaker 1: to his career rates, though he has been turnover prone guy.

992
00:51:57,320 --> 00:52:01,160
Speaker 1: And this Seahawks team is just it's it's very good,

993
00:52:01,160 --> 00:52:03,719
Speaker 1: but it's not eight points on the road against the

994
00:52:03,760 --> 00:52:07,799
Speaker 1: competent team in Carolina, who, by the way, has been

995
00:52:07,880 --> 00:52:10,520
Speaker 1: a lot better at home, you know, Demon and the Jaguars.

996
00:52:10,520 --> 00:52:12,399
Speaker 2: As a dog, they have the most wins out right

997
00:52:12,400 --> 00:52:12,719
Speaker 2: as a.

998
00:52:12,640 --> 00:52:15,120
Speaker 1: Dog, which is yeah, yeah, for.

999
00:52:15,040 --> 00:52:16,680
Speaker 2: The whole season, they can break the record here.

1000
00:52:17,280 --> 00:52:19,040
Speaker 1: Yeah. And then I think coming into the I don't

1001
00:52:19,080 --> 00:52:20,720
Speaker 1: I want to say they were like, oh to fourteen

1002
00:52:21,040 --> 00:52:23,440
Speaker 1: as a dog straight up or something crazy like that too,

1003
00:52:23,480 --> 00:52:25,880
Speaker 1: Like they weren't like they would always lose as dogs,

1004
00:52:25,920 --> 00:52:28,879
Speaker 1: and now they just can't they can't lose. But yeah,

1005
00:52:29,040 --> 00:52:30,600
Speaker 1: I just think this is too many points for a

1006
00:52:30,600 --> 00:52:33,799
Speaker 1: Seahawks team that is competent. Uh. You know, they're not

1007
00:52:33,800 --> 00:52:35,800
Speaker 1: going to get a ton of pressure. But again, Darnold

1008
00:52:35,840 --> 00:52:39,200
Speaker 1: can still turn the ball over and Carolina's offense is

1009
00:52:39,560 --> 00:52:43,080
Speaker 1: good enough with dowd o Cuba Cocher's coming on strong.

1010
00:52:43,480 --> 00:52:46,640
Speaker 1: They got the tight end involved a little bit last week.

1011
00:52:46,719 --> 00:52:48,879
Speaker 1: So I just think this is too many points here

1012
00:52:49,280 --> 00:52:52,319
Speaker 1: for the uh, for the Seahawks on the road, they

1013
00:52:52,440 --> 00:52:54,000
Speaker 1: I mean they've been they've been, they've been having some

1014
00:52:54,040 --> 00:52:56,200
Speaker 1: close calls. The Panthers all they do is play these

1015
00:52:56,200 --> 00:52:59,080
Speaker 1: one score games. So and you know in the NFL

1016
00:52:59,120 --> 00:53:01,560
Speaker 1: this year, seven and a half to nine and a

1017
00:53:01,600 --> 00:53:05,319
Speaker 1: half point dogs are hitting about fifty seven percent. It's

1018
00:53:05,360 --> 00:53:08,360
Speaker 1: just hard to you know, get margin in today's NFL,

1019
00:53:08,400 --> 00:53:10,720
Speaker 1: where every time there's like a change of possession, teams

1020
00:53:10,719 --> 00:53:13,680
Speaker 1: are getting balld like the thirty yard line. So yeah,

1021
00:53:13,760 --> 00:53:17,319
Speaker 1: give me me Carolina here to at Weeds covered the spread.

1022
00:53:17,320 --> 00:53:19,520
Speaker 1: W gondn't be surprised if they if they got the upset,

1023
00:53:19,560 --> 00:53:21,160
Speaker 1: just given how they're playing this year. But if you

1024
00:53:21,200 --> 00:53:22,840
Speaker 1: look at teams that have won at least nine or

1025
00:53:22,840 --> 00:53:28,000
Speaker 1: ten straight up, like the Seahawks coming off an ATS loss,

1026
00:53:28,520 --> 00:53:30,719
Speaker 1: those teams are just thirty two forty six and I

1027
00:53:31,040 --> 00:53:34,480
Speaker 1: fIF and six against the spread, So that's only forty

1028
00:53:34,520 --> 00:53:38,480
Speaker 1: one percent. Uh. And then in December they've only covered

1029
00:53:38,520 --> 00:53:40,360
Speaker 1: out of forty two percent equipment in the same spot.

1030
00:53:40,480 --> 00:53:44,000
Speaker 1: So these teams tend to struggle to cover by margin.

1031
00:53:44,080 --> 00:53:47,160
Speaker 1: Wait in a year, give me the Carolina Panthers, who

1032
00:53:47,280 --> 00:53:49,279
Speaker 1: may be on the way to the playoffs. So see

1033
00:53:49,320 --> 00:53:52,040
Speaker 1: what happens with the Bucks. But give me Carolina here.

1034
00:53:52,040 --> 00:53:53,160
Speaker 1: Still playing hard late in the year.

1035
00:53:54,880 --> 00:53:57,600
Speaker 2: Numbers wise with living your way for sure.

1036
00:53:58,080 --> 00:54:00,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's it's a bit scary. I mean, line,

1037
00:54:00,280 --> 00:54:01,560
Speaker 1: like I said, hasn't be getting a little lucky. But

1038
00:54:01,640 --> 00:54:03,799
Speaker 1: seven and a half points is a lot for a

1039
00:54:03,800 --> 00:54:06,440
Speaker 1: confident team against that good But no, I don't I

1040
00:54:06,440 --> 00:54:08,600
Speaker 1: don't think the see we did. Everyone thinks just because

1041
00:54:08,600 --> 00:54:10,240
Speaker 1: they beat the Rams, I still see some issues.

1042
00:54:10,320 --> 00:54:12,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Rams deserve to win that game. Yep.

1043
00:54:13,320 --> 00:54:16,560
Speaker 1: All right, So let's see we got uh, Geno Smith,

1044
00:54:17,000 --> 00:54:20,680
Speaker 1: t J. Stroud, Shadoor Sanders, you're you're, you got the

1045
00:54:21,200 --> 00:54:22,480
Speaker 1: you got well and then I get I give us

1046
00:54:22,480 --> 00:54:24,560
Speaker 1: Philip Rivers so and then you go with Josh Allen,

1047
00:54:24,560 --> 00:54:26,319
Speaker 1: so yeah we and then I got Bryce Young so yeah,

1048
00:54:26,360 --> 00:54:29,120
Speaker 1: Bryce Young, Philip Rivers, shad Or Sanders, Gino Smith for

1049
00:54:29,320 --> 00:54:32,239
Speaker 1: the six quarterbacks on this week seventeen to six. Fact,

1050
00:54:32,239 --> 00:54:33,120
Speaker 1: that's where we.

1051
00:54:34,520 --> 00:54:34,919
Speaker 2: Last week.

1052
00:54:34,960 --> 00:54:38,839
Speaker 1: Going back, well, I'm at oh man that this is uh,

1053
00:54:38,840 --> 00:54:40,360
Speaker 1: this is where we're supposed to be though that was

1054
00:54:40,400 --> 00:54:43,600
Speaker 1: our week seventeen Sunday six pack. Again, you would like

1055
00:54:43,640 --> 00:54:45,000
Speaker 1: to tell some of the pictures to look for the

1056
00:54:45,080 --> 00:54:47,920
Speaker 1: quick slip link any podcast or video description and be

1057
00:54:47,960 --> 00:54:50,240
Speaker 1: sure to sign up for Action Pro for instant notifications

1058
00:54:50,480 --> 00:54:53,960
Speaker 1: when all of our bets are tracked. All right, Now

1059
00:54:53,960 --> 00:54:56,680
Speaker 1: it's time for our favorite totals of the week. All right,

1060
00:54:56,760 --> 00:55:01,400
Speaker 1: favorite total of the week? Uh that Bill's Bills. Bill's

1061
00:55:02,360 --> 00:55:05,759
Speaker 1: game last week just nightmare start for the total with

1062
00:55:05,840 --> 00:55:07,640
Speaker 1: shad Or going like eight to eight on the first

1063
00:55:07,719 --> 00:55:11,280
Speaker 1: drive and could breaking a long run. But I'm gonna

1064
00:55:11,280 --> 00:55:14,160
Speaker 1: go with the Bucks Dolphins over forty five and a half.

1065
00:55:14,480 --> 00:55:18,360
Speaker 1: Dolphins defense kind of played away. I thought they would finally.

1066
00:55:18,440 --> 00:55:20,759
Speaker 1: I mean they I think they've been just getting lucky

1067
00:55:20,800 --> 00:55:23,440
Speaker 1: with the opponents that they've faced, or they faced just

1068
00:55:24,080 --> 00:55:28,439
Speaker 1: like the Jets, the Cousins, Falcons, the Saints, like they

1069
00:55:28,520 --> 00:55:31,520
Speaker 1: the Dolphins defense really hadn't been tested. And I'm still

1070
00:55:31,560 --> 00:55:35,160
Speaker 1: I still think the Bucks are going to wake up

1071
00:55:35,160 --> 00:55:37,640
Speaker 1: a little bit offensively. I mean, it's it's been looking bad.

1072
00:55:37,760 --> 00:55:39,759
Speaker 1: Baker might be hurt. I don't know what's going on.

1073
00:55:39,880 --> 00:55:43,040
Speaker 1: They've been going super run heavy, but I do think

1074
00:55:43,080 --> 00:55:45,480
Speaker 1: that at some point they're gonna wake up. I mean,

1075
00:55:45,480 --> 00:55:49,160
Speaker 1: the receivers are still completely healthy, they got their backfield back.

1076
00:55:50,640 --> 00:55:53,840
Speaker 1: I just don't see how they continue to underperform like this.

1077
00:55:54,360 --> 00:55:56,799
Speaker 1: So I like the Bucks to put up some some

1078
00:55:56,920 --> 00:55:59,120
Speaker 1: points here. I'm not saying they'll win because I thought

1079
00:55:59,120 --> 00:56:02,080
Speaker 1: yours a little bit better than maybe the stat the

1080
00:56:02,120 --> 00:56:03,920
Speaker 1: final stats she choked because he had no touchdowns, a

1081
00:56:03,920 --> 00:56:06,839
Speaker 1: couple of picks, but did get it done for eight

1082
00:56:06,840 --> 00:56:10,439
Speaker 1: point seven yards in attempt. If McDaniels thinks he gives

1083
00:56:10,480 --> 00:56:12,680
Speaker 1: him a better chance to two and then I mean

1084
00:56:13,040 --> 00:56:16,719
Speaker 1: that that that is saying something. So Dolphins, you know

1085
00:56:16,760 --> 00:56:19,879
Speaker 1: Wado's playing well, Waller, I don't think they. I don't

1086
00:56:19,880 --> 00:56:23,120
Speaker 1: think they have much defensively, but I think their offense

1087
00:56:23,200 --> 00:56:26,520
Speaker 1: is sneaky solid, and I think the Bucks are just

1088
00:56:26,719 --> 00:56:30,719
Speaker 1: I mean, they've just been playing below what they're capable of.

1089
00:56:30,840 --> 00:56:32,880
Speaker 1: So I think at some point they're gonna wake up.

1090
00:56:32,880 --> 00:56:35,279
Speaker 1: And their defense has kind of fallen off a cliff too,

1091
00:56:35,320 --> 00:56:38,160
Speaker 1: like Looston. You know, when's the offense gonna wake up.

1092
00:56:38,560 --> 00:56:41,279
Speaker 1: Their defense has not been very good for a couple

1093
00:56:41,320 --> 00:56:43,960
Speaker 1: of months now, and you know, starting the year they

1094
00:56:44,000 --> 00:56:47,200
Speaker 1: were their defense was very good and now it just

1095
00:56:47,280 --> 00:56:49,000
Speaker 1: hasn't really been working out for them. So I just

1096
00:56:49,000 --> 00:56:50,880
Speaker 1: think both of these teams are gonna be able to

1097
00:56:50,880 --> 00:56:52,600
Speaker 1: put up some points. Can have a back and forth.

1098
00:56:52,719 --> 00:56:55,800
Speaker 1: Looks like seventy five degrees in clear, So uh, nothing

1099
00:56:55,800 --> 00:56:57,640
Speaker 1: too crazy as far as weather it's concerned. Yeah, give

1100
00:56:57,680 --> 00:56:59,840
Speaker 1: me bucks uh Dolphins over.

1101
00:57:00,040 --> 00:57:01,919
Speaker 2: More in that game later, I'm gonna go. I don't

1102
00:57:01,920 --> 00:57:06,000
Speaker 2: really love many totals this week, especially right now with

1103
00:57:06,120 --> 00:57:09,080
Speaker 2: injuries and weather watching, but I'm gonna I think this line,

1104
00:57:09,080 --> 00:57:10,560
Speaker 2: this one's a little too high, So I'm gonna go

1105
00:57:10,560 --> 00:57:14,080
Speaker 2: with Cardinals Bengals under fifty three and a half. It's

1106
00:57:14,080 --> 00:57:17,320
Speaker 2: a bit scary with these two offenses and defenses, but

1107
00:57:17,360 --> 00:57:20,440
Speaker 2: there could be some wind Cardinals going outdoors. The Cardinals

1108
00:57:20,440 --> 00:57:22,400
Speaker 2: are gonna try to do everything to ken their limited explosives,

1109
00:57:22,440 --> 00:57:26,200
Speaker 2: and Burrow is probably gonna have lots of success driving

1110
00:57:26,200 --> 00:57:30,000
Speaker 2: down the field Methodically, that's gonna take some time. You

1111
00:57:30,040 --> 00:57:32,040
Speaker 2: need like everything to go right. I mean to get

1112
00:57:32,080 --> 00:57:35,080
Speaker 2: to get to get into like the high fifties sixties.

1113
00:57:35,160 --> 00:57:39,720
Speaker 2: So Bengals defense is playing a little better of late,

1114
00:57:40,600 --> 00:57:42,959
Speaker 2: especially if you just remove that snow game against Allen

1115
00:57:43,080 --> 00:57:45,680
Speaker 2: like just you can always just remove games against the

1116
00:57:45,760 --> 00:57:49,440
Speaker 2: league quarterbacks and snow for snow over conditions. But I

1117
00:57:49,520 --> 00:57:51,520
Speaker 2: just think it's a little bit too high. This is

1118
00:57:51,560 --> 00:57:55,520
Speaker 2: a luck under as well, for what it's worth. But yeah,

1119
00:57:55,520 --> 00:57:58,400
Speaker 2: we're gonna go Cardinals Bengals under fifty three and a half.

1120
00:57:58,880 --> 00:58:01,040
Speaker 2: Don't love it, but I do think it's a little

1121
00:58:01,040 --> 00:58:01,439
Speaker 2: too high.

1122
00:58:02,400 --> 00:58:07,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's I mean, the Cardinals offensive line is still

1123
00:58:08,080 --> 00:58:11,680
Speaker 1: really banged up. The only problem is their defensive backfield.

1124
00:58:11,760 --> 00:58:14,400
Speaker 1: Defensive backfield. The defense in general is justice banged up.

1125
00:58:14,440 --> 00:58:17,280
Speaker 1: But if they played a twenty six nineteen game with

1126
00:58:17,320 --> 00:58:20,200
Speaker 1: the Cardinals last week, it's really about the Bengals, Like

1127
00:58:20,240 --> 00:58:22,880
Speaker 1: if their defense can play the way it's been playing

1128
00:58:22,880 --> 00:58:26,040
Speaker 1: outside of that game, I think this goes way under

1129
00:58:26,920 --> 00:58:28,600
Speaker 1: because they're gonna score. I think the Bengals are gonna

1130
00:58:28,600 --> 00:58:29,080
Speaker 1: score points.

1131
00:58:29,080 --> 00:58:29,439
Speaker 2: I got first.

1132
00:58:29,440 --> 00:58:31,240
Speaker 1: I was looking at that number, like seven is a

1133
00:58:31,240 --> 00:58:33,800
Speaker 1: lot for the Bengals. But Cardinals just so banged up.

1134
00:58:33,840 --> 00:58:36,360
Speaker 2: I mean all every level there's injuries.

1135
00:58:36,840 --> 00:58:41,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, I guess. I guess Harrison is probably gonna play

1136
00:58:41,680 --> 00:58:43,360
Speaker 1: more snaps to sequal see about that. But yeah, I

1137
00:58:43,640 --> 00:58:45,200
Speaker 1: don't mean this way too. I just think that's that

1138
00:58:45,320 --> 00:58:48,160
Speaker 1: is a high number for like two non a week teams.

1139
00:58:48,200 --> 00:58:50,800
Speaker 1: I know the defenses are bad, but one of you know,

1140
00:58:51,560 --> 00:58:53,880
Speaker 1: one of them could always weigh an egg in the spot,

1141
00:58:54,000 --> 00:58:58,840
Speaker 1: probably the Cardinals. So don't hate it. So Bucks Dolphin's

1142
00:58:58,880 --> 00:59:02,160
Speaker 1: over forty five and a half, Cardinals Bengals under forty

1143
00:59:02,160 --> 00:59:03,600
Speaker 1: three and a half. Those are our favorite totals for

1144
00:59:03,640 --> 00:59:08,040
Speaker 1: Week seventeen. Out of time for our money line underdog parlay.

1145
00:59:08,080 --> 00:59:10,240
Speaker 1: I think you're in another one. So we're up to

1146
00:59:10,280 --> 00:59:13,240
Speaker 1: fourteen and two now I'm here. I mean, yeah, just

1147
00:59:13,920 --> 00:59:15,600
Speaker 1: I don't even need to partay. These just take years.

1148
00:59:15,600 --> 00:59:16,760
Speaker 1: But who you going.

1149
00:59:19,240 --> 00:59:24,200
Speaker 2: Turning good weekends into great weekends? It's time for the

1150
00:59:24,360 --> 00:59:29,200
Speaker 2: money line parlay. We're gonna go with the Dolphins. By

1151
00:59:29,200 --> 00:59:31,720
Speaker 2: the way, the teams teams that need to win in

1152
00:59:31,760 --> 00:59:34,600
Speaker 2: week sixteen and seventeen against teams that are eliminated, well,

1153
00:59:34,600 --> 00:59:36,320
Speaker 2: if you take the teams that are eliminated playing for nothing,

1154
00:59:36,360 --> 00:59:38,440
Speaker 2: they're one to eight and sixty nine against the spread.

1155
00:59:38,520 --> 00:59:41,160
Speaker 2: As we started track, well I've gone back to I

1156
00:59:41,200 --> 00:59:45,080
Speaker 2: think this is since two thousand and sixty one percent.

1157
00:59:46,200 --> 00:59:47,480
Speaker 2: I think this is another one with the lines a

1158
00:59:47,520 --> 00:59:50,880
Speaker 2: little bit too high. Baker Mayfield is broken. I mean

1159
00:59:51,000 --> 00:59:55,560
Speaker 2: since Week seven his EPA plus completion presignage over expectation.

1160
00:59:55,600 --> 00:59:58,280
Speaker 2: He's thirty six out of thirty nine quarterbacks. The quarterbacks

1161
00:59:58,280 --> 01:00:02,680
Speaker 2: behind him are like Brady Cook, Dylan Gabriel, and he's

1162
01:00:02,760 --> 01:00:06,520
Speaker 2: basically like tied with Shador and right above JJ McCarthy.

1163
01:00:06,560 --> 01:00:09,560
Speaker 2: So I don't know if he's heard or what's going on,

1164
01:00:09,640 --> 01:00:12,920
Speaker 2: but I mean they haven't covered in what two months

1165
01:00:14,120 --> 01:00:16,520
Speaker 2: this This team is broken and the defense is falling

1166
01:00:16,520 --> 01:00:21,360
Speaker 2: off a cliff. It's it's ugly. So uh yeah, Dolphins.

1167
01:00:21,440 --> 01:00:23,920
Speaker 2: They're leaning into the run. The Dolphins run defenses like

1168
01:00:23,960 --> 01:00:28,240
Speaker 2: they're where they still have a pulse where you attack

1169
01:00:28,320 --> 01:00:30,920
Speaker 2: the Dolphins as their secondary. It's all I see Baker

1170
01:00:31,000 --> 01:00:34,760
Speaker 2: do something. There's a chance they lose this game. And

1171
01:00:34,800 --> 01:00:38,920
Speaker 2: then the other thing is is that if Seattle destroys Carolina,

1172
01:00:40,360 --> 01:00:41,840
Speaker 2: I don't think that's gonna happen. But if they're up

1173
01:00:41,840 --> 01:00:45,000
Speaker 2: like thirty five, nothing, then the game means nothing to

1174
01:00:45,080 --> 01:00:49,480
Speaker 2: the Bucks. So do you then go into just like

1175
01:00:51,320 --> 01:00:54,600
Speaker 2: conservative mode. We're not going to do much the second half,

1176
01:00:54,600 --> 01:00:55,880
Speaker 2: you know what I mean, Like if it's close, like

1177
01:00:55,880 --> 01:00:58,320
Speaker 2: we can't get anyone hurt, because if the Panthers are

1178
01:00:58,320 --> 01:01:01,440
Speaker 2: getting blown out at the same time like now, then

1179
01:01:01,480 --> 01:01:06,880
Speaker 2: the game means absolutely nothing to Tampa. Very very small potential,

1180
01:01:07,440 --> 01:01:11,080
Speaker 2: but it's worth mentioning. But yeah, we're going with the

1181
01:01:11,120 --> 01:01:12,800
Speaker 2: Dolphins hopefully moved to fifteen and two.

1182
01:01:14,080 --> 01:01:16,640
Speaker 1: I'm gonna get much uglier than that. Let's uh, let's

1183
01:01:16,640 --> 01:01:19,040
Speaker 1: get real spicy and go with the New York Jets.

1184
01:01:19,080 --> 01:01:21,320
Speaker 1: Gotta find a way to get him back on the

1185
01:01:21,320 --> 01:01:25,280
Speaker 1: pod after I smartly, I guess didn't end.

1186
01:01:25,240 --> 01:01:26,360
Speaker 2: Up going glad you did not.

1187
01:01:27,000 --> 01:01:28,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, that was that was ugly. But let's come out

1188
01:01:28,800 --> 01:01:31,720
Speaker 1: to them plus seven thirty years. So this is just

1189
01:01:31,720 --> 01:01:33,360
Speaker 1: as simple as you see this late in the year

1190
01:01:33,400 --> 01:01:38,360
Speaker 1: sometimes where a team just elite team coming off an

1191
01:01:38,400 --> 01:01:42,440
Speaker 1: emotional like big win, you know, as did the New

1192
01:01:42,480 --> 01:01:46,960
Speaker 1: England Patriots against the Ravens. Now you're coming now you're

1193
01:01:46,960 --> 01:01:50,960
Speaker 1: playing a division game on the road. Second is the

1194
01:01:50,960 --> 01:01:52,680
Speaker 1: second Division because they played the Patriot yet this.

1195
01:01:52,720 --> 01:01:55,320
Speaker 2: Year they play Yeah, they put him aready right, Yeah,

1196
01:01:55,400 --> 01:01:58,240
Speaker 2: they played them in I mean I think it was

1197
01:01:58,680 --> 01:02:00,880
Speaker 2: the Patriots won twenty seven fourteen.

1198
01:02:00,960 --> 01:02:02,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, oh Thursday night that was what it was. Yeah, yeah,

1199
01:02:02,880 --> 01:02:05,080
Speaker 1: Thursday night game. So yeah, the Jets they just covered

1200
01:02:05,080 --> 01:02:06,680
Speaker 1: in that. I guess they were. Yeah, I think they

1201
01:02:06,720 --> 01:02:10,720
Speaker 1: were thirteen and a half on the road and they

1202
01:02:11,280 --> 01:02:12,880
Speaker 1: I think it was they ended up losing my thirteen.

1203
01:02:12,960 --> 01:02:16,320
Speaker 1: So now you know they're at home. There's a non

1204
01:02:16,400 --> 01:02:18,240
Speaker 1: zero chance to Patriots lay an egg here, So I

1205
01:02:18,400 --> 01:02:20,760
Speaker 1: just I just want to get a you know, a

1206
01:02:20,800 --> 01:02:24,560
Speaker 1: long shot number here. Obviously, just go to spread if

1207
01:02:24,560 --> 01:02:28,880
Speaker 1: you're not feeling it. But no, uh, like the offensive

1208
01:02:28,920 --> 01:02:31,200
Speaker 1: line for the Patriots I think is still an issue.

1209
01:02:31,320 --> 01:02:35,160
Speaker 1: You had Wilson going to cussion protocol, You're still without Campbell,

1210
01:02:35,400 --> 01:02:36,800
Speaker 1: and then you know, uh.

1211
01:02:36,760 --> 01:02:39,000
Speaker 2: Traylon Orangers on the defense too last week.

1212
01:02:39,080 --> 01:02:41,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, and then but and then you're like, so your

1213
01:02:41,000 --> 01:02:43,479
Speaker 1: best trailer Henderson was their entire offense in that game

1214
01:02:43,560 --> 01:02:46,160
Speaker 1: in on Thursday night, right, he's in the protocol probably misses.

1215
01:02:46,640 --> 01:02:51,360
Speaker 1: And then Booty, who's been your like one of your

1216
01:02:51,400 --> 01:02:54,000
Speaker 1: top receivers all year, He's also in the protocol. And

1217
01:02:54,040 --> 01:02:56,520
Speaker 1: then h Ja Mario Douglas is on the injury put.

1218
01:02:56,600 --> 01:02:58,720
Speaker 1: So like a lot of your you know, just your

1219
01:02:58,840 --> 01:03:03,200
Speaker 1: your most explosive offensive players are are kind of out

1220
01:03:03,440 --> 01:03:06,600
Speaker 1: or you know, trending out, and then your offensive line

1221
01:03:06,640 --> 01:03:08,920
Speaker 1: is banged up, and then your defense is banged up,

1222
01:03:09,000 --> 01:03:12,400
Speaker 1: and you have, you know, just coming off that big

1223
01:03:12,400 --> 01:03:14,560
Speaker 1: win against the Ravens last week. So there's a chance

1224
01:03:14,600 --> 01:03:17,600
Speaker 1: it's just a major wet down spot and it's second

1225
01:03:17,640 --> 01:03:20,360
Speaker 1: division game. We just see these things these times this

1226
01:03:20,440 --> 01:03:23,040
Speaker 1: time of year. So just going with a long shot here,

1227
01:03:23,280 --> 01:03:26,360
Speaker 1: but more realistically, the Jets just end up covering the

1228
01:03:26,920 --> 01:03:30,160
Speaker 1: number and an ugly one, but at you know, over

1229
01:03:30,360 --> 01:03:33,560
Speaker 1: plus six hundred. I got to take a little little

1230
01:03:33,560 --> 01:03:38,280
Speaker 1: sprinkle on the New York Jets here, So give me

1231
01:03:38,320 --> 01:03:42,760
Speaker 1: the Jets. That's gonna give us a massive parlay odds.

1232
01:03:42,760 --> 01:03:44,800
Speaker 1: But to any thoughts on this one, I.

1233
01:03:44,720 --> 01:03:47,520
Speaker 2: Mean, this line's too high. This is a crazy line.

1234
01:03:47,520 --> 01:03:50,680
Speaker 2: Like this is the saying the Patriots are over two

1235
01:03:50,720 --> 01:03:53,400
Speaker 2: touchdowns better than the Jets. So like, I mean, the

1236
01:03:53,400 --> 01:03:56,160
Speaker 2: Patriots are good. They're not like they're not like a

1237
01:03:56,200 --> 01:03:59,000
Speaker 2: plus five or six average TV.

1238
01:03:59,320 --> 01:04:01,040
Speaker 1: They're actually seven teams, you know.

1239
01:04:01,120 --> 01:04:03,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, they're like a like a I have them like

1240
01:04:03,920 --> 01:04:07,400
Speaker 2: as a plus two, Like they're so like that. This

1241
01:04:07,520 --> 01:04:12,240
Speaker 2: is implying that the Jets are like, uh a minus twelve.

1242
01:04:13,520 --> 01:04:15,840
Speaker 3: I mean that's great, close close, but yeah, it's like

1243
01:04:15,880 --> 01:04:19,240
Speaker 3: there's a professional football team that's, yeah, you know, in

1244
01:04:19,280 --> 01:04:21,120
Speaker 3: a division game, playing for pride.

1245
01:04:21,160 --> 01:04:23,320
Speaker 1: Like you said, the players aren't going to tank even

1246
01:04:23,360 --> 01:04:24,640
Speaker 1: if yeah yeah.

1247
01:04:24,800 --> 01:04:27,520
Speaker 2: The other thing is if there was that the Patriots

1248
01:04:27,520 --> 01:04:29,600
Speaker 2: are getting so lucky. I mean, I not only that

1249
01:04:29,640 --> 01:04:32,320
Speaker 2: they have the easiest schedule in the last twenty five years.

1250
01:04:32,640 --> 01:04:34,720
Speaker 2: And that doesn't even account for all the backups they

1251
01:04:34,760 --> 01:04:37,400
Speaker 2: faced and all the quarterbacks they face that's been benched,

1252
01:04:37,400 --> 01:04:41,520
Speaker 2: and like they got huntly eight of the eleven quarterbacks

1253
01:04:41,520 --> 01:04:45,720
Speaker 2: they be either been benched or or backups or rookies.

1254
01:04:46,120 --> 01:04:47,680
Speaker 2: I mean they beat Josh Allen and then a bunch

1255
01:04:47,680 --> 01:04:49,560
Speaker 2: of nobodies. I mean it's insane. I mean they got

1256
01:04:49,560 --> 01:04:51,800
Speaker 2: they got Baker Mayfield, who's been like the worst, Like

1257
01:04:51,920 --> 01:04:53,560
Speaker 2: that's the name that you're like, Oh, they beat Baker,

1258
01:04:53,600 --> 01:04:56,560
Speaker 2: he's been the bottom three quarterback. And then if they've

1259
01:04:56,560 --> 01:05:02,000
Speaker 2: also fourth downs, they are on the season sixteen of

1260
01:05:02,080 --> 01:05:04,400
Speaker 2: twenty two and fourth downs seventy three percent. With a

1261
01:05:04,400 --> 01:05:06,880
Speaker 2: bad running game, their opponents are eight of twenty three

1262
01:05:07,040 --> 01:05:11,480
Speaker 2: thirty four percent. Fumbles. They've fumbled twenty times, they've only

1263
01:05:11,520 --> 01:05:14,600
Speaker 2: lost eight. Their opponents have fumbled eleven and lost eight.

1264
01:05:15,120 --> 01:05:18,560
Speaker 2: Drake may has who's been incredible, great deep ball. I

1265
01:05:18,600 --> 01:05:22,600
Speaker 2: love watching him, but I mean he has gotten away

1266
01:05:22,640 --> 01:05:25,920
Speaker 2: with so many throws. I mean he has sixteen turnover

1267
01:05:25,960 --> 01:05:28,880
Speaker 2: worth he plays and only seven or eight interceptions. Last

1268
01:05:28,880 --> 01:05:31,560
Speaker 2: week he had I think three turnover worthy plays, should

1269
01:05:31,560 --> 01:05:33,640
Speaker 2: have had a couple interceptions, only had one on a

1270
01:05:33,680 --> 01:05:36,000
Speaker 2: really bad pass. So if there was ever a game

1271
01:05:36,000 --> 01:05:38,480
Speaker 2: where like one team who's been really lucky all year

1272
01:05:38,520 --> 01:05:41,000
Speaker 2: and one team who's been the unluckiest in NFL history,

1273
01:05:41,040 --> 01:05:42,960
Speaker 2: I mean, you want to go with the Jets on

1274
01:05:43,040 --> 01:05:46,640
Speaker 2: fourth downs, they're forty six percent, their opponents are seventy

1275
01:05:46,680 --> 01:05:50,880
Speaker 2: four percent. Fumbles. The Jets have fumbled at sixteen times,

1276
01:05:50,960 --> 01:05:53,640
Speaker 2: have lost ten. Their opponents of fumbled fourteen only lost four.

1277
01:05:54,000 --> 01:05:57,800
Speaker 2: They have no interceptions on the air still, so if

1278
01:05:57,840 --> 01:06:01,200
Speaker 2: you just get like a couple bounces, you're going to

1279
01:06:01,280 --> 01:06:02,960
Speaker 2: cover this number, which is too I'm just gonna wait

1280
01:06:03,000 --> 01:06:04,440
Speaker 2: to see if there's a fourteen that pops.

1281
01:06:04,480 --> 01:06:07,080
Speaker 1: But yeah, I wouldn't I wouldn't be surprised if they

1282
01:06:07,120 --> 01:06:09,640
Speaker 1: if they, just like the Patriots could just if there's

1283
01:06:09,720 --> 01:06:13,560
Speaker 1: turnover regression here and the Patriots have no Henderson, no

1284
01:06:15,240 --> 01:06:17,680
Speaker 1: Booty like and Jets gets.

1285
01:06:17,560 --> 01:06:19,640
Speaker 2: Get some special teams. Jets have a special teams.

1286
01:06:19,640 --> 01:06:21,919
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, Isaiah Williams pops or something like. You could

1287
01:06:21,920 --> 01:06:24,160
Speaker 1: easily see them lose like twenty to seventeen, and it's

1288
01:06:24,200 --> 01:06:26,560
Speaker 1: like verable, just like, oh man, I still got work

1289
01:06:26,600 --> 01:06:26,760
Speaker 1: to do.

1290
01:06:27,360 --> 01:06:29,960
Speaker 2: But and then the Bills lose the way the season goes,

1291
01:06:30,000 --> 01:06:31,920
Speaker 2: the Bills lose the Eagles, so the Patriots still win

1292
01:06:32,000 --> 01:06:35,080
Speaker 2: the division. Because if if the Patriots went out, they

1293
01:06:35,080 --> 01:06:39,120
Speaker 2: still win the division. That's all they need to. Oh wait,

1294
01:06:39,160 --> 01:06:40,720
Speaker 2: well they beat the ratings, so that doesn't even matter.

1295
01:06:41,040 --> 01:06:42,680
Speaker 1: Yeah no, that's that's what I'm saying. It's a major

1296
01:06:42,680 --> 01:06:45,000
Speaker 1: wetdowuns spot right here, there's a major wetdowns spot.

1297
01:06:45,040 --> 01:06:47,840
Speaker 2: So if the Patriots lose this week.

1298
01:06:48,240 --> 01:06:49,600
Speaker 1: I think you would still be they would still in

1299
01:06:49,600 --> 01:06:50,040
Speaker 1: the division.

1300
01:06:50,360 --> 01:06:54,320
Speaker 2: We'll say the Bills win, Patriots win. I mean, Patriots lose.

1301
01:06:55,040 --> 01:06:58,520
Speaker 2: Next week, Bills win because Bills are home against the

1302
01:06:58,600 --> 01:07:01,280
Speaker 2: Jets and the Pots are home against Quinny Ors. How

1303
01:07:01,320 --> 01:07:04,760
Speaker 2: do the Patriots flight backup quarterbacks every week every week? Now,

1304
01:07:04,840 --> 01:07:05,920
Speaker 2: Bills would win the division.

1305
01:07:06,160 --> 01:07:07,720
Speaker 1: Oh if they oh, they'd have to go to and

1306
01:07:07,760 --> 01:07:11,320
Speaker 1: O and the Patriots go too, right Yeah yeah, yeah, okay, yeah,

1307
01:07:11,320 --> 01:07:13,040
Speaker 1: so they got like a Queen Yours game on deck.

1308
01:07:13,360 --> 01:07:16,520
Speaker 1: Still still a major wet down spat couple off the

1309
01:07:16,600 --> 01:07:20,120
Speaker 1: Ravens win. So yeah, but yeah, like spread, obviously it

1310
01:07:20,120 --> 01:07:20,520
Speaker 1: would be I.

1311
01:07:20,520 --> 01:07:21,840
Speaker 2: Do think it's too high. I probably will be on

1312
01:07:21,840 --> 01:07:22,760
Speaker 2: the Jets reluctantly.

1313
01:07:23,280 --> 01:07:27,200
Speaker 1: Yep, all right, Let's see the money line parlay would

1314
01:07:27,200 --> 01:07:30,480
Speaker 1: be plus just under twenty four to one. So nice

1315
01:07:30,480 --> 01:07:33,880
Speaker 1: little juicy one here, but this should be fun. Let's

1316
01:07:33,880 --> 01:07:38,960
Speaker 1: get to our anytime touchdown parlay, presented by Jackings. All right,

1317
01:07:39,040 --> 01:07:40,880
Speaker 1: you've been having the money line dogs. I've been had

1318
01:07:40,920 --> 01:07:43,760
Speaker 1: on the touchdowns. I gotta get gotta get them. At

1319
01:07:43,760 --> 01:07:45,680
Speaker 1: the same time, almost had it, like like you said

1320
01:07:45,720 --> 01:07:47,200
Speaker 1: with Metcalf, got one called back.

1321
01:07:47,360 --> 01:07:48,160
Speaker 2: Unbelievable.

1322
01:07:48,320 --> 01:07:50,760
Speaker 1: Unbelievable, man, where are you going this week?

1323
01:07:50,920 --> 01:07:53,600
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with Tyler Warren. Him and Rivers like

1324
01:07:53,720 --> 01:07:55,080
Speaker 2: just haven't been on the same page, but he's been

1325
01:07:55,080 --> 01:07:59,600
Speaker 2: targeted fifteen times of the past two weeks. Culture dogs here,

1326
01:08:00,080 --> 01:08:02,560
Speaker 2: like the White Rivers is moving it wants to get

1327
01:08:02,560 --> 01:08:04,960
Speaker 2: the ball quick. I think I think Warren's gonna get

1328
01:08:04,960 --> 01:08:06,960
Speaker 2: some looks in the red zone here, So give me

1329
01:08:07,000 --> 01:08:07,520
Speaker 2: Tyler Warren.

1330
01:08:08,520 --> 01:08:10,680
Speaker 1: Speaking of wooks in the red zone, I like that one.

1331
01:08:10,760 --> 01:08:13,560
Speaker 1: By the way, I'm gonna go Juwan Jennings to keep

1332
01:08:13,560 --> 01:08:16,120
Speaker 1: it Rowland, he has seven touchdowns in his last seven games,

1333
01:08:16,120 --> 01:08:18,840
Speaker 1: has scored in six of his past seven. And there's

1334
01:08:18,840 --> 01:08:22,800
Speaker 1: a chance George Kittle misses this one. Pearsall could I

1335
01:08:22,800 --> 01:08:24,599
Speaker 1: guess return, but there's a chance both of those guys

1336
01:08:24,600 --> 01:08:26,679
Speaker 1: are out, and even if Piersaw comes back, he hasn't

1337
01:08:26,680 --> 01:08:30,120
Speaker 1: really been a big red zone guy. So the Niners

1338
01:08:30,400 --> 01:08:34,200
Speaker 1: are very red oriented. So with that means they essentially

1339
01:08:34,320 --> 01:08:37,519
Speaker 1: like shanahandle dropped the plays and Hurdy much better, much

1340
01:08:37,520 --> 01:08:39,800
Speaker 1: more so than Jones has been able to get the

1341
01:08:39,840 --> 01:08:41,920
Speaker 1: ball to his first read. So that's just gonna be

1342
01:08:42,000 --> 01:08:44,240
Speaker 1: a lot of McCaffrey, with a lot of Jennings and

1343
01:08:44,240 --> 01:08:45,680
Speaker 1: then a lot of Kittle if he plays in the

1344
01:08:45,800 --> 01:08:48,880
Speaker 1: red zone. So this total seems a little high. It

1345
01:08:48,960 --> 01:08:51,599
Speaker 1: is like fifty two and a half, but James around

1346
01:08:51,640 --> 01:08:54,320
Speaker 1: one plus one forty. He's turning into like a Mike

1347
01:08:54,360 --> 01:08:57,280
Speaker 1: Evans like kind of touchdown scorer for this Niner team.

1348
01:08:57,439 --> 01:08:59,719
Speaker 1: It makes sense because he's always been a third down guy. Anyway,

1349
01:08:59,720 --> 01:09:02,559
Speaker 1: money down guys. So I came at plus one forty

1350
01:09:02,840 --> 01:09:06,479
Speaker 1: warrs at plus one ninety parway Jennings Warren to score.

1351
01:09:06,680 --> 01:09:10,360
Speaker 1: You get round six to one odds that are anytime

1352
01:09:10,720 --> 01:09:16,639
Speaker 1: touchdown Parway for Week seventeen, presented by DraftKings. All right, any.

1353
01:09:16,479 --> 01:09:20,559
Speaker 2: Games we didn't I think we covered everything except I

1354
01:09:20,560 --> 01:09:22,160
Speaker 2: mean Bears forty nine Ers at three and a half,

1355
01:09:22,200 --> 01:09:23,840
Speaker 2: I'd look at the Bear, especially if there's no Kittle

1356
01:09:23,840 --> 01:09:25,599
Speaker 2: that hurts in the run game and the forty nine

1357
01:09:25,640 --> 01:09:28,160
Speaker 2: Ers defense is so bad, I don't think they can

1358
01:09:28,240 --> 01:09:33,320
Speaker 2: lay over three here. Short week and Bears just keep

1359
01:09:33,360 --> 01:09:35,240
Speaker 2: getting disrepctive. I mean, the Bears have been so lucky,

1360
01:09:35,280 --> 01:09:37,759
Speaker 2: so maybe this is the game where it all falls apart.

1361
01:09:37,840 --> 01:09:40,240
Speaker 2: But at three and a half they should be able

1362
01:09:40,240 --> 01:09:42,720
Speaker 2: to move the ball on San Francisco, although I do

1363
01:09:42,800 --> 01:09:45,320
Speaker 2: think two running teams it is a pretty high total.

1364
01:09:45,479 --> 01:09:48,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was miffed by that, but I mean, let's

1365
01:09:48,200 --> 01:09:53,800
Speaker 1: see see how it goes. Titans, Titans, Saints.

1366
01:09:53,800 --> 01:09:57,320
Speaker 2: Caesar piece for the Titans. That's about it.

1367
01:09:57,920 --> 01:10:01,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, and then you got the the MS Falcons on

1368
01:10:01,760 --> 01:10:05,880
Speaker 1: Monday night, right now? All right? That is gonna do

1369
01:10:05,880 --> 01:10:10,120
Speaker 1: it for our week seventeen Action Network podcast presented by

1370
01:10:10,360 --> 01:10:14,080
Speaker 1: Draft Kings. Wishing everybody out there a happy Holidays. Appreciate

1371
01:10:14,160 --> 01:10:17,519
Speaker 1: you for tuning in. You can find Stuck on BBOC

1372
01:10:17,640 --> 01:10:20,559
Speaker 1: in the Favorites. I'm on the Fantasy Flex as well

1373
01:10:20,600 --> 01:10:23,080
Speaker 1: on this pod with the Touchdown Show with Kerner and

1374
01:10:23,080 --> 01:10:25,760
Speaker 1: got Water. In the week, check out at Playbook on

1375
01:10:25,920 --> 01:10:29,120
Speaker 1: Twitter for our AI chatbot that can build you bet slips.

1376
01:10:29,240 --> 01:10:32,880
Speaker 1: Stuck is on x at Stucky two. Matt Chris raybondret

1377
01:10:32,920 --> 01:10:36,839
Speaker 1: those same handles on the free award winning Action Network

1378
01:10:37,040 --> 01:10:40,240
Speaker 1: at Happy Holidays. Let's get this money, Let's give this money.

1379
01:10:40,400 --> 01:10:59,920
Speaker 1: My Christmas Action Network reminds you please gamble responsible.

1380
01:11:00,520 --> 01:11:03,280
Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1381
01:11:03,600 --> 01:11:06,639
Speaker 2: help is available twenty four seven at one eight hundred

1382
01:11:06,640 --> 01:11:07,080
Speaker 2: Gambler