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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along

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Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day

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Speaker 2: for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics

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Speaker 2: from our global headquarters in New York City. We are

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Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine

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Speaker 2: am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or

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Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. Ben later Bradesco joins

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Speaker 2: us now for more, Ben, Welcome to the program sir,

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Speaker 2: it's been too long. Let's just get to sort of

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Speaker 2: base case baseline expectations for the next several days. What

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Speaker 2: are you and the team expected to see?

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Speaker 3: Well, I'm hoping we see more of the same, right,

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Speaker 3: I guess, continued on certainty, but actually no dramatic changes

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Speaker 3: to this sort of backed off tariff scenario, you know,

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Speaker 3: so this does see it feel a little bit like

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Speaker 3: back to reality. Of course, it never went away. We

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Speaker 3: just forgot about it for ninety days, and markets, you know,

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Speaker 3: ripped off the back of that, and I think we're

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Speaker 3: having a probably a predictable reset here.

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Speaker 2: Ben, let's talk about how that reset might shape global markets.

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Speaker 2: The bias at the stand of the year was to

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Speaker 2: look to international assets and maybe leave the US behind.

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Speaker 2: The US has snapped back so aggressively, so quickly, I

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Speaker 2: think people are questioning that all over again. Where do

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Speaker 2: you stand on the issue?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I sort of think the genie's out of the

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Speaker 3: bottle on US exceptionalism. I'm not a bear on the US.

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Speaker 3: I think the US is fine, but I am looking

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Speaker 3: for much more average returns out of the US, these

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Speaker 3: sort of typical ten percent levels, not the twice that

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Speaker 3: that we've got used to in the last couple of years.

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Speaker 3: And I think the rest of the world looks looks

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Speaker 3: pretty good here. You still and most of the all

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Speaker 3: have this sort of double equity in FX discount the

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Speaker 3: week of dollars clearly helping. And I think some of

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Speaker 3: these countries have real silver linings to a potential restart

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Speaker 3: of this tower.

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Speaker 4: Well, when it comes to the restar of the tariff

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Speaker 4: for and you're looking at all these countries who you're

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Speaker 4: most excited about. Everyone was very amped have been excited

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Speaker 4: about Japan, but they've seemed to take in less of

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Speaker 4: a priority with this administration than they did just thirty

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Speaker 4: forty days ago.

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Speaker 3: Look at Latin if you want to be excited. Cheapest market,

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Speaker 3: cheapest markets in the world, best and fording markets in

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Speaker 3: the world. This year, Mexico one of a tiny handful

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Speaker 3: of company of countries that still have tariff free access

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Speaker 3: to the US and places like Brazil, you know, low

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Speaker 3: ten percent tariff, lots of commodity carveouts, and a market

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Speaker 3: which would actually probably like more of a slowdown potentially

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Speaker 3: coming in from coming in from the rest of the world.

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Speaker 5: So there are you know, it's a big world.

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Speaker 3: There are definitely markets out there that I think would

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Speaker 3: you could have silver linings here.

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Speaker 4: It's interesting you mentioned Brazil because the President was saying

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Speaker 4: that any countries that align themselves with policies of the

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Speaker 4: bricks could be charged an additional ten percent tariff. Brazil

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Speaker 4: is the host country for this week's Brick Summit. Do

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Speaker 4: you think Trump is more embolded now is a question

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Speaker 4: Jonathan's been asking all morning, given the fact that he

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Speaker 4: has had the markets at an all time high and he.

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Speaker 6: Just passes one big, beautiful bill.

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Speaker 5: We're going to find out that.

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Speaker 3: I guess that's the one thing I know with some certainty.

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Speaker 3: But yes, the Trump put is definitely not as strong

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Speaker 3: now as it was, you know, when we were down

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Speaker 3: in the whole, you know, twenty percent, you know, plus ago.

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Speaker 3: You know, I would like to feel it's still in place.

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Speaker 3: I would like to feel, you know, Trump feels he's

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Speaker 3: in a better place. Does he really need to go

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Speaker 3: through that all again, introduce that level of policy uncertainty.

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Speaker 3: There's even greater drags on us growth. You know, I

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Speaker 3: would hope, you know, cooler heads prevailed, but who knows.

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Speaker 3: You know, we still have ninety percent of this administration

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Speaker 3: to go.

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Speaker 2: Ben, Investors feel like they're in a much better place

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Speaker 2: compared to where there were a few months ago. Are companies?

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Speaker 2: What are corporations doing now? Ben? And a question we

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Speaker 2: asked on the previous hour. Have we established how these

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Speaker 2: tariffs will be handled? Will it be passed or they

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Speaker 2: have to eait it on margin?

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Speaker 3: Listen, I think companies are just like the rest of us, right.

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Speaker 3: I think this level of uncertainty, even though it may

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Speaker 3: have come down a bit, is absolutely corrosive to decision making,

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Speaker 3: to confidence, and I think everything else being equal. That

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Speaker 3: means that you are hiring less people, you are doing

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Speaker 3: less capex. And your question on tariffs, I think companies

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Speaker 3: have shown us and the margins are there to prove it.

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Speaker 3: They will pass this on. They will pull that pricing

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Speaker 3: lever at every opportunity.

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Speaker 2: Then which economy, which center consumers do you think is

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Speaker 2: in a better position to absorb that hit.

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Speaker 3: Well's the US consumer is going to take most of this, right,

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Speaker 3: So the US consumer is in reasonably good shape. But

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Speaker 3: you know, at the margin, this is all this is

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Speaker 3: all slowing, right, So I'm not sure that the US

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Speaker 3: is in the eye of the storm here. I think

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Speaker 3: the rest of the world, you know, whether it's on

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Speaker 3: the economy side with fiscal stimulus in places like Germany

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Speaker 3: and China, whether it's on the market side with these

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Speaker 3: double discounts on the on the equity market and the FX.

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Speaker 3: I think international assets and this global rotation has further

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Speaker 3: to go.

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Speaker 4: Ben, I'd love to get your thoughts on China because

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Speaker 4: that is something that the President is still working on,

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Speaker 4: more of a bigger grand bargain deal he talks about.

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Speaker 4: At the same time, they have a framework when it

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Speaker 4: comes to export controls and critical minerals.

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Speaker 6: Do you think China is investible.

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Speaker 3: I think it's definitely investable. We are seeing very strong

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Speaker 3: inflows into into Chinese assets. I was just looking at

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Speaker 3: the numbers this morning from the from the US ETFs

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Speaker 3: was like five hundred million last week into China five

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Speaker 3: hundred million you know the week before. So absolutely the

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Speaker 3: money's going in. This is a very cheap market. I

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Speaker 3: think people are betting there's a deal to be done

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Speaker 3: and there's a there's enough flexibility on the Chinese side too.

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Speaker 3: They want to deal and they have a policy stimulus

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Speaker 3: to maybe offset some of the costs to the tariffs

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Speaker 3: that having to eat right.

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Speaker 2: Now, Hi Ben, I appreciate your time, as always been.

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Speaker 2: Later there a Pridesco. It's the type from Dan Eys

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Speaker 2: of Wentbush Rights in the following must diving deeper into

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Speaker 2: politics is exactly the opposite direction. The Tesla investors and

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Speaker 2: shadholders want him to take dan Jo and to surround

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Speaker 2: the type with Danka monic great to be. How much

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Speaker 2: of a problem is this.

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Speaker 5: It's a huge problem.

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Speaker 7: I mean, it's what we've been talking about and you're

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Speaker 7: hearing the show, you know for months that you went

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Speaker 7: from Trumdministration Dige BFFs. Obviously there was a huge moment

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Speaker 7: you had to step back from politics, and now that's

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Speaker 7: exactly what investors want to see. And now you poke

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Speaker 7: the bar in terms of Trump and now you're former

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Speaker 7: em political party. So the point is, I believe you've

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Speaker 7: now hit a point. I think the board's going to

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Speaker 7: have to get involved because this is now over. I

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Speaker 7: think there's a line in the sand that he's now

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Speaker 7: starting across. And that's the frustration that someone that's a

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Speaker 7: huge supporter of Tesla Autonomous, the Golden Age ahead, you

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Speaker 7: cannot kind of go down this path.

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Speaker 5: And I think that's why the stocks reacting.

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Speaker 2: Let's some pack that volt himselfman describe what that might

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Speaker 2: look like.

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Speaker 7: Look, I wouldn't say it's necessarily an ultimatum, but you know,

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Speaker 7: you cannot keep going down this path where you know.

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Speaker 5: To start a political party ahead.

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Speaker 7: Of the midterms, I mean the amount of work time

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Speaker 7: and also you alienate potentially whether it's Republican Party, whether

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Speaker 7: it's Trump. So now Trump goes from obviously a huge

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Speaker 7: supporter to is that sort of an enemy or blockade,

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Speaker 7: And I think that's why the stocks reacting the way

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Speaker 7: it is because the last thing you want to see

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Speaker 7: at this point autonomous regulatory that now must goes from

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Speaker 7: front seat in the White House to ultimately you become

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Speaker 7: more of a foe.

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Speaker 4: When you say ultimatum, you mean the board saying to him,

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Speaker 4: if you continue this behavior, you can no longer be CEO.

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Speaker 5: Look, I think the board's gonna there.

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Speaker 7: It's a tricky path right for the board, and this

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Speaker 7: is not a board that this has had such a

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Speaker 7: you know, a huge.

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Speaker 5: Backbone when it comes to Musk. But I do think, look, investors,

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Speaker 5: there's exhaustion.

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Speaker 6: Do you want to see a new CEO book.

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Speaker 7: I want Musk to stay CEO as Tesla because in

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Speaker 7: my view, Musk is Tesla, Tesla as Musk the biggest

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Speaker 7: asset of Tesla.

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Speaker 5: But this political.

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Speaker 7: Journey that he continues to go through, I think he

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Speaker 7: just comes down to Investors have hit a point where

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Speaker 7: they want him focused on Tesla and AI, and every

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Speaker 7: time that happens, he just continues.

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Speaker 5: To go further and further into the political theater.

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Speaker 4: He might not be just burning bridges in the Beltway.

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Speaker 4: I want to read you this quote from the Wall

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Speaker 4: Street Journal reporting overnight because of the Musk Trump feud,

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Speaker 4: Beijing no longer views the Tesla CEO as a geopolitical asset,

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Speaker 4: will shy away from publicly courting him, so he canna

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Speaker 4: have problems outside of the United States as well because

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Speaker 4: of his political involvement in the United States.

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Speaker 7: Look, it goes back to like, if you just take

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Speaker 7: a step back here, it's like, let's try in a

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Speaker 7: way to almost alienate every aspect of the ecosystem, right

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Speaker 7: in terms of the core buyer to now maybe even

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Speaker 7: Republicans to what you're seeing in China.

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Speaker 5: And that's the hearts and lungs of Taska.

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Speaker 7: I continued, we must is an asset there and it

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Speaker 7: will play that sort of nice in the sandbox, but

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Speaker 7: it does show you become an enemy or a food

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Speaker 7: to Trump. What does that do in the political and

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Speaker 7: obviously the geopolitical.

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Speaker 5: And I think that's part. Look, that's that's.

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Speaker 7: Part of the you know, the issue here is that

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Speaker 7: you start to go into a quicksand situation where I

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Speaker 7: think in the view of investors there's really no upside

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Speaker 7: and you can say, okay, if you get mid terms

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Speaker 7: and you have some success and he has political power,

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Speaker 7: but that's independence of their ad really success in the US, but.

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Speaker 5: It's massive risk. That's where the stock's selling off to

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Speaker 5: where it is.

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Speaker 2: The ANIX community is not exactly build up on the stock.

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Speaker 2: It's actually very divided. And if you take the twelve

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Speaker 2: month consensus price target, the average is about two ninety

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Speaker 2: eight right now, and that's below where we closed on Satursday.

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Speaker 2: How well understood are these risks they manifest and evolve

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Speaker 2: over the weekend.

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Speaker 7: Well, I think the risk now they continue to expand,

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Speaker 7: and I think that's part of the issues that Okay

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Speaker 7: for here it did you go back to a few

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Speaker 7: weeks ago road attacks, the autonomous you know, must one

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Speaker 7: hundred percent committed. Now it's like, hey, over the weekend,

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Speaker 7: while you know, hot dog and doing a July fourth barbecue.

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Speaker 5: Hey let's start a political party. Yeah it's a good idea.

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Speaker 5: Yeah we're going to do that.

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Speaker 7: So that's as an investor, it's the last thing you

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Speaker 7: and I heard over the weekend. The last thing you

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Speaker 7: want to see is him going on the spat. But

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Speaker 7: I think the bigger worry is as he goes further

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Speaker 7: and further down the path from from a Tesla perspective,

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Speaker 7: does that maybe add risk in terms of Trump becoming

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Speaker 7: more of a blockade rather around autonomous.

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Speaker 2: And around some of the just describe what that means.

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Speaker 2: What do you mean by that?

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Speaker 6: What could he take?

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Speaker 7: A big thing is around the federal roadmap in terms

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Speaker 7: of autonomous. I mean, now, this is a key few

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Speaker 7: years ahead for Tesla going not just from Austin, but

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Speaker 7: twenty five cities over next year. If you start to

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Speaker 7: put more blockades in terms of things that they need

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Speaker 7: to meet in order to get on the road, if

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Speaker 7: instead of more of a green light, it's a little

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Speaker 7: more of a yellow red.

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Speaker 5: Light, that's the word. That's what the stock's selling off.

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Speaker 7: It's the fear that over the next six, twelve, eighteen

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Speaker 7: months Trump starts to put little blockades in that.

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Speaker 4: But even today the president is looking out for America's interest.

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Speaker 4: If he just does that, it might hurt Elon Muss

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Speaker 4: but also might hurt the United States when it comes

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Speaker 4: to competition with China.

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Speaker 7: And that's why we've said the biggest asset when it

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Speaker 7: comes to autonomous is Tasa because when you think Willima's

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Speaker 7: not going to scale at any level relative to Tessa.

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Speaker 7: So when you're competing with China, Tesla and Musk is

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Speaker 7: an accid no different than Jensen.

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Speaker 5: That's why. Look, the hope is, at one point, is there.

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Speaker 7: Some sort of meeting between Musk Trump? Can they sort

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Speaker 7: of get to some resolution. The problem is every week

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Speaker 7: he gets further and further, and this is not what

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Speaker 7: you want to see. Just the amount of the content

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Speaker 7: to every other tech company, from the Della, from Jents

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Speaker 7: and from open Ai, from a Oracle and all down

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Speaker 7: the AI path you don't want to see.

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Speaker 5: Must now going down the Portico path.

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Speaker 2: How much time does he have? You've got a pricetocket

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Speaker 2: of five hundred in a pre market right now for

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Speaker 2: at two ninety four. How much time does he have

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Speaker 2: to back away from that?

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Speaker 7: I mean, I think you basically have what I view

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Speaker 7: is kind of like ninety days three months. I mean,

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Speaker 7: I think there's a ninety days sort of I can

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Speaker 7: see like some sort of ultimatum where if he continues

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Speaker 7: to go on the path no different than how we

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Speaker 7: view with Duge and Trump, or he's on that conference call.

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Speaker 5: I had to back off.

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Speaker 7: This is this is a I would just have to

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Speaker 7: say a moment of truth.

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Speaker 5: But this is a time now for Musk.

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Speaker 7: He needs to choose and you can't keep having these

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Speaker 7: one step forward, two steps back, one step forward, two

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Speaker 7: steps back. And that's why the exhaustion is starting to

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Speaker 7: play out in Tesla stock.

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Speaker 2: Then West, It's going to say, certainly exhisted by a

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Speaker 2: lot of this. The stuck is down by close to

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Speaker 2: seven percent in the pre market. Let's turned back to

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Speaker 2: Trade Treasury Secretary Scale Besson saying that some trade partners

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Speaker 2: tariff rates will boomerang back to Liberation Day levels. Joining

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Speaker 2: us now to discusses Kate Kalukowitz, the former White House

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Speaker 2: trade official and former senior USTR trade negotiator. Kate, Welcome

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Speaker 2: to the program. Is this the beginning of the end

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Speaker 2: or just the end of the beginning?

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Speaker 8: Well, I think this is President Trump at his best,

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Speaker 8: when he's bringing the pressure and supporting his negotiators. I

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Speaker 8: think this is his favorite time of the negotiations, when

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Speaker 8: he can be extremely maximalist. And I think as a

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Speaker 8: trade negotiator, it helps to have a leader like that

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Speaker 8: pushing for the end, pushing for the negotiations to get

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Speaker 8: over the finish line, and providing that sort of threat

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Speaker 8: that helps his team actually tell their counterparts he's serious.

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Speaker 2: Kate, what determines whether you get a UK outcome, a

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Speaker 2: Viennam outcome, a China outcome, or something much worse.

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Speaker 8: Well, you know, I actually think that's quite an important question,

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Speaker 8: and the Vietnam deal sort of shows that there are

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Speaker 8: two different trajectories here. Let's set China to the side

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Speaker 8: for now, because I think that's a separate type of negotiation.

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Speaker 8: But you have a UK outcome and you have a

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Speaker 8: Vietnam outcome. And I think for the list of countries

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Speaker 8: with which the United States is actively negotiating, you see

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Speaker 8: two different pathways here. One for the more developed economies,

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Speaker 8: probably looking for something like the UK god and those

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Speaker 8: more export heavy economies that receive those very high tariff rates.

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Speaker 8: Maybe the Vietnam deal reflects what the Trump administration is

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Speaker 8: putting on the table.

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Speaker 6: Is a Vietnam deal actually done though, Well.

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Speaker 8: Back to our end of the beginning, You're right, Anne, Marie.

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Speaker 8: These are framework agreements, and I think you described it perfectly.

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Speaker 8: The truth announcing the Vietnam deal was I think quite gleeful.

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Speaker 8: The Vietnamese, of course later in times said we still

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Speaker 8: have a lot of things to work out here. But

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Speaker 8: let's make no mistake, this is a re really important outcome.

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Speaker 8: The Vietnamese, of course, were on the hook for very

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Speaker 8: high tariffs. They've been the recipient of the ire of

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Speaker 8: the Trump administration, going back to the first time around,

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Speaker 8: the increasing trade deficit, particularly as it relates to China.

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Speaker 8: The longer term play for the Vietnamese, however, is going

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Speaker 8: to be how it manages this very very challenging place

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Speaker 8: they find themselves between China and the United States. And

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Speaker 8: these will be the details on the transhipment that they're

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Speaker 8: going to have to work out.

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Speaker 4: When you look at what's coming up this week, the

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Speaker 4: President says at noon he's going to be sending tariff

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Speaker 4: letters out. You have the European Union, the Commission talking

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Speaker 4: about the fact that the President got on the phone

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Speaker 4: with Ursula Vonderline. They're looking to get some sort of

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Speaker 4: framework before July ninth. What buckets are different countries.

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Speaker 8: In Well, I mean, I think you've seen the President

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Speaker 8: and his surrogates talk about this smaller set of nations

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Speaker 8: or economies which are much further along. I think the

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Speaker 8: President had been quite hopeful last week Vietnam would be

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Speaker 8: the first of several and now Smith's that day and

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Speaker 8: you've seen him signal that talks with India quite forward,

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Speaker 8: that talks with the EU are quite forward. Obviously he's

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Speaker 8: been a little frustrated with where things are with Japan.

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Speaker 8: But I think these are the countries that we can

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Speaker 8: expect some outcomes this week if negotiators can get a

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Speaker 8: few of these wrinkles, you know, ironed out.

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Speaker 4: These are also the same countries though that given the

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Speaker 4: fact that they are in these deep talks, will get extensions.

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Speaker 4: And is that what you think Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik

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Speaker 4: was talking about when we talked about April for August first.

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Speaker 8: Well, again, I think the President is trying to signal

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Speaker 8: to these countries that they need to stop delaying. You know,

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Speaker 8: he had hoped to have these deals ready last week.

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Speaker 8: I think this new notion of letters going out is

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Speaker 8: really his way of ratcheting up pressure. Typically when we

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Speaker 8: see tariffs go into place, there is somewhat of a

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Speaker 8: delay to allow importers some time to adjust.

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Speaker 1: So I think we'll still have to see exactly.

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Speaker 8: When things are implemented. But I really do see this

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Speaker 8: more as the President trying to ratchet up leverage.

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Speaker 4: How surprised are you they're given the fact that you

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Speaker 4: were a trade negotiator under Trump, that Japan and the

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Speaker 4: European Union have basically swapped fates.

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Speaker 8: Well Japan is quite interesting because I think the President

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Speaker 8: was surprised when he got the Knee Pond steel deal

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Speaker 8: across the finish line. He probably suspected that would be

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Speaker 8: sufficient to wrap things up. Of course, the Japanese really

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Speaker 8: want to see an outcome on cars, and the President

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Speaker 8: does not seem inclined to deliver that.

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Speaker 5: Then.

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Speaker 8: Of course, you know, when you're negotiating with democracies, this

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Speaker 8: is always the challenge. Japan has an election coming up,

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Speaker 8: which constrains its negotiators, so you know, it is quite

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Speaker 8: shocking I think that we've ended up in this place,

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Speaker 8: but this is part of being a trade negotiator with

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Speaker 8: governments which have to be responsive to their own domestic constituencies.

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Speaker 8: Europe I think will get across the finish line so

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Speaker 8: long as we continue to have these leader level discussions,

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Speaker 8: as we've discussed before. You know, the European Union is

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Speaker 8: a very challenging negotiating partner because it does represent twenty

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Speaker 8: seven different countries, and so if you don't get right

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Speaker 8: to the leader level, you don't get right to these

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Speaker 8: big commercial deals.

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Speaker 1: It's very challenging.

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Speaker 8: So if President vonder Land and President Trump maintain this dialogue,

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Speaker 8: I think we can get that one finished.

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Speaker 2: I Kate, appreciate your view. Kate Kalukowitz there joining us

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Speaker 2: on the latest trade push down in Washington, d C.

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Speaker 2: We begin this hour with stocks pulling back from all

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Speaker 2: time highs as President Donald Trump reignites trade concerns. Kadi

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Speaker 2: Kaminskive out for simplex writing, Equity trend signals are still

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Speaker 2: modestly strong given the volatility and uncertainty in recent months.

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Speaker 2: Candy joins us now for more. Can you welcome to

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Speaker 2: the program, and good morning. It feels like sentiment is

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Speaker 2: quite one sided now after the massive reversal over the

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Speaker 2: last several months or so. Yet will still come on

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Speaker 2: the program and say the pin tride is higher equities

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Speaker 2: from here? Do you agree?

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Speaker 9: I would have to agree that that's what we're seeing,

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Speaker 9: especially in the market data. What was interesting, though, is

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Speaker 9: we did see a little bit of a pivot last

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Speaker 9: week where you saw small caps and perhaps more domestic.

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Speaker 1: Focus being in ahead.

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Speaker 9: And so I'd say that, you know, the general theme

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Speaker 9: has continually been a little bit more pro growth and

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Speaker 9: positive for equities, which is something I wouldn't have guessed

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Speaker 9: a few weeks ago.

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Speaker 2: In particular, Okay, you're seeing that inequities, Can you say

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Speaker 2: you're seeing the corresponding thing in the bond market at

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Speaker 2: the same time.

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Speaker 1: Definitely not. I'd say that the bond market has been

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Speaker 1: very tricky this year.

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Speaker 9: We've seen very mixed signals across different parts of the curve.

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Speaker 9: We've definitely seen short signals on the long ends suggesting that.

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Speaker 1: Yields need to be higher over long term.

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Speaker 9: That may suggest some uncertainty about where rates are going

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Speaker 9: to go over long horizons. But in general, it's been

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Speaker 9: very tricky to trade the bond market recent because there's

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Speaker 9: just been this push and pull between when aer rate's

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Speaker 9: going to be cut and also just you know, in general,

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Speaker 9: what are the impact of all these macro themes on

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Speaker 9: fixed income?

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Speaker 4: Given this, are you surprised the bond market didn't get

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Speaker 4: a vote on the one big beautiful bill?

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Speaker 1: Good question. I mean, I think you haven't seen that

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Speaker 1: much movement.

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Speaker 9: You are seeing some steepening as well recently, like particularly today,

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Speaker 9: or seeing that as well, So I'd say that you know,

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Speaker 9: the bond market is not voting yet it definitely voted

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Speaker 9: on what was going on in Liberation Day. So I think,

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Speaker 9: you know, we just have to wait and see when

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Speaker 9: you know, bond investors are really voicing their opinions. But really,

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Speaker 9: right now very mixed and fixed income.

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Speaker 4: Do you think bond investors are going to pay close

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Speaker 4: attention to this deadline this week or they feel like

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Speaker 4: it's self imposed and already the administration has signaled that

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Speaker 4: a lot of these trading partners are going to get

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Speaker 4: more time to really work out the agreement with the

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Speaker 4: United States.

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Speaker 9: Well, I mean, if you look at just how much

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Speaker 9: movement you have today and how the market has responded

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Speaker 9: to recent events, it's almost that the market is sort

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Speaker 9: of shrugging off some of this news because it's nothing

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Speaker 9: is really a big shock. It's everything that we've been

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Speaker 9: discussing along the way, and there's been continual backtracking and.

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Speaker 1: Back and forth.

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Speaker 9: So I think people are waiting to know the real

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Speaker 9: results before they start positioning themselves for the impact of

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Speaker 9: those potential trade decisions.

442
00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:27,679
Speaker 2: It keady in the meantime. What's working in the commodity market,

443
00:21:29,800 --> 00:21:30,560
Speaker 2: Not much, I.

444
00:21:30,560 --> 00:21:33,080
Speaker 9: Would say, I mean, i'd say that commodities have been

445
00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:36,240
Speaker 9: up this month, but there hasn't been big swings.

446
00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:40,159
Speaker 1: Obviously, people have been following oil and energy in general,

447
00:21:40,840 --> 00:21:42,000
Speaker 1: but when you look at things.

448
00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:45,000
Speaker 9: Like gold, which had also been pretty much on a

449
00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:47,600
Speaker 9: tear this year, it has been sort of stagnating some

450
00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:50,640
Speaker 9: as well. So I think, you know, looking for that demand,

451
00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:55,720
Speaker 9: that demand increase that might potentially occur because of having

452
00:21:55,800 --> 00:21:58,959
Speaker 9: better stronger growth is something we're kind of seeing right

453
00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:02,120
Speaker 9: now this month that bodies have been up, but it's

454
00:22:02,320 --> 00:22:05,720
Speaker 9: not particularly strong yet, but it's the potential for a

455
00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:07,280
Speaker 9: trend going the next few months.

456
00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:09,760
Speaker 2: Kevy, as I listened to you talk about commodities and

457
00:22:09,920 --> 00:22:14,240
Speaker 2: fixed income, it just sounds like you're seeing convictionless markets

458
00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:16,960
Speaker 2: in certain asset classes. Would it be fair to describe

459
00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:19,400
Speaker 2: them as that precisely?

460
00:22:19,520 --> 00:22:22,240
Speaker 9: I think what we have seen is strong conviction and

461
00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:26,200
Speaker 9: equities a week dollar, but everything else has been kind

462
00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:29,879
Speaker 9: of wavering around in sort of anticipation to understand the

463
00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:34,159
Speaker 9: impact of these trade negotiations, but also just sort of

464
00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:38,920
Speaker 9: is the US economy strong enough to actually follow through

465
00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:40,920
Speaker 9: with this narrative? And that's why I think other asset

466
00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:45,119
Speaker 9: classes are really trying to really waiting and sort of

467
00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:46,240
Speaker 9: treading back and forth.

468
00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:48,720
Speaker 2: Kenny, do you find that difficult to reconcile while we

469
00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:51,280
Speaker 2: are seeing that conviction in places like equities and in

470
00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:53,840
Speaker 2: foreign exchange, why you're not seeing the same thing elsewhere?

471
00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:57,680
Speaker 1: Definitely so, But I mean I think these are just

472
00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:00,879
Speaker 1: at different time horizons. I think equity move quickly.

473
00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:03,840
Speaker 9: I think the bond market needs a little bit more

474
00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:08,840
Speaker 9: clarity on multiple economic factors such as trade as well

475
00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:11,240
Speaker 9: as you know, the overall health of the US economy

476
00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:13,720
Speaker 9: and the job market, and those are a lot of

477
00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:18,080
Speaker 9: themes to reconcile, particularly with the FED that hasn't moved yet.

478
00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:20,560
Speaker 1: So I think bonds doesn't surprise me.

479
00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:24,600
Speaker 9: But commodities, I think they're sort of in the wake

480
00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:26,920
Speaker 9: of what you know. I would have expected them to

481
00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:30,840
Speaker 9: move more, just with the tariffs themselves fundamentally, but we

482
00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:33,520
Speaker 9: still haven't seen that yet. So that I think helps

483
00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:37,480
Speaker 9: investors be less worried about this inflation concern or other

484
00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:39,359
Speaker 9: concerns related to trade in the short term.

485
00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:42,080
Speaker 2: Stuck in Limberg, Katy, appreciate the update, Katy Kaminski that

486
00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:46,639
Speaker 2: of Alpha Simplex. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing

487
00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:50,560
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488
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489
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490
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491
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00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:07,040
Speaker 7: Mm hmm