1 00:00:01,720 --> 00:00:05,360 Speaker 1: Welcome to Crash Course, a podcast about business, political, and 2 00:00:05,400 --> 00:00:08,760 Speaker 1: social disruption and what we can learn from it. I'm 3 00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 1: Tim O'Brien. Today's Crash Course Putin versus Ukraine's Forgotten War. 4 00:00:15,680 --> 00:00:18,920 Speaker 1: In early twenty twenty two, Russian President Vladimir Putin launched 5 00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:22,760 Speaker 1: a full scale invasion of Ukraine, a sprawling, brutal follow 6 00:00:22,840 --> 00:00:25,480 Speaker 1: up to his land grab of Crimea in twenty fourteen. 7 00:00:26,239 --> 00:00:29,480 Speaker 1: Casualty figures are hard to assess precisely, but tens of 8 00:00:29,480 --> 00:00:32,320 Speaker 1: thousands of soldiers and civilians have been killed or wounded 9 00:00:32,360 --> 00:00:34,760 Speaker 1: on both sides of the war, with the full tally 10 00:00:34,880 --> 00:00:37,760 Speaker 1: estimated to be in the hundreds of thousands. The war 11 00:00:37,840 --> 00:00:40,800 Speaker 1: initially produced in a national show of support for Ukraine 12 00:00:40,840 --> 00:00:45,000 Speaker 1: and its embattled leader, Vladimir Zolensky. After all, the broader 13 00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:47,839 Speaker 1: fate of Western Europe hung in the balance, a consequential 14 00:00:47,880 --> 00:00:51,720 Speaker 1: geopolitical reality for the United States as well, and Ukraine 15 00:00:51,760 --> 00:00:55,480 Speaker 1: itself fought back courageously, beating back waves of murderous assaults 16 00:00:55,800 --> 00:00:59,640 Speaker 1: and defying expectations that it would quickly buckle. But wars 17 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:03,760 Speaker 1: are trench, stubborn things, and as Putin's troops, missiles and 18 00:01:03,760 --> 00:01:07,319 Speaker 1: tanks laid waste to Ukraine, and as Ukraine responded in kind, 19 00:01:07,760 --> 00:01:11,200 Speaker 1: a military stalemate has settled in the Gaza war has 20 00:01:11,200 --> 00:01:16,120 Speaker 1: now captured the world's attention and headlines, diverting attention from Ukraine. Further, 21 00:01:16,200 --> 00:01:19,040 Speaker 1: financial military aid for Ukraine from Europe and the US 22 00:01:19,040 --> 00:01:22,200 Speaker 1: has dried up. Yet the stakes haven't changed and the 23 00:01:22,200 --> 00:01:25,360 Speaker 1: world remains at risk. Joining me today to discuss the 24 00:01:25,480 --> 00:01:28,640 Speaker 1: Ukraine War is Mark Champion, a columnist with Bloomberg Opinion. 25 00:01:29,080 --> 00:01:32,080 Speaker 1: Mark has lived and worked in Russia, reported from Ukraine, 26 00:01:32,319 --> 00:01:35,160 Speaker 1: and has covered foreign affairs extensively for a number of 27 00:01:35,240 --> 00:01:39,000 Speaker 1: leading publications. He is wise and shrewd, and he joins 28 00:01:39,000 --> 00:01:43,479 Speaker 1: me today from our London office where he's based. Greetings, Mark, time, 29 00:01:44,240 --> 00:01:46,120 Speaker 1: so tell me a little bit before we get into 30 00:01:46,120 --> 00:01:50,160 Speaker 1: the specifics of Vladimir Putin's journey as Russia's president and 31 00:01:50,160 --> 00:01:53,200 Speaker 1: the war in Ukraine, a little bit about your own 32 00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:56,320 Speaker 1: journey as a correspondent, particularly the time you spent in 33 00:01:56,400 --> 00:01:59,120 Speaker 1: Russia and what you learned from those years. 34 00:02:00,240 --> 00:02:00,480 Speaker 2: Yeah. 35 00:02:00,560 --> 00:02:03,880 Speaker 3: Well, I first went to Russia when it was still 36 00:02:04,080 --> 00:02:06,600 Speaker 3: the former Soviet Union and was there for just at 37 00:02:06,640 --> 00:02:09,919 Speaker 3: the very end before the collapse, and then went back 38 00:02:10,120 --> 00:02:13,120 Speaker 3: right afterwards and stayed for about seven years. So this 39 00:02:13,240 --> 00:02:15,040 Speaker 3: was the time of Yeltz and it was the time 40 00:02:15,080 --> 00:02:19,280 Speaker 3: of great hope in some ways for reform. There was 41 00:02:19,320 --> 00:02:26,119 Speaker 3: a big pro Western sentiment among especially younger urban Russians. 42 00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:29,239 Speaker 1: And privatizations, privatizations, privatizations. 43 00:02:28,320 --> 00:02:32,480 Speaker 3: And very quickly, you know, economic pain and disappointment, resentment, 44 00:02:32,560 --> 00:02:35,440 Speaker 3: you know, across much of the country, which really suffered 45 00:02:35,600 --> 00:02:39,040 Speaker 3: terribly as the whole system came apart economically and so on. 46 00:02:39,720 --> 00:02:42,760 Speaker 3: But I think, you know, looking back, there are two 47 00:02:42,800 --> 00:02:46,440 Speaker 3: things that really strike me as things I didn't quite 48 00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:49,840 Speaker 3: understand the important stuff at the time. One was that 49 00:02:50,040 --> 00:02:53,120 Speaker 3: had many friends mostly almost all of them would have 50 00:02:53,160 --> 00:02:56,680 Speaker 3: been younger and kind of pro Western. But I remember 51 00:02:56,800 --> 00:02:58,720 Speaker 3: that whenever you would start to talk about Ukraine, it 52 00:02:58,760 --> 00:03:02,240 Speaker 3: was almost always there was a skepticism that it really 53 00:03:03,040 --> 00:03:05,520 Speaker 3: was a country, and that I think is important to 54 00:03:05,560 --> 00:03:09,119 Speaker 3: remember among younger Russians, the younger Russians, you know, just expats, 55 00:03:09,120 --> 00:03:11,880 Speaker 3: but Russian not at all. Now it's about Russians, and 56 00:03:11,960 --> 00:03:13,760 Speaker 3: you know, I think it's important to remember when we 57 00:03:13,800 --> 00:03:15,720 Speaker 3: talk about this as Putin's War and so on, and 58 00:03:15,760 --> 00:03:18,000 Speaker 3: we wonder as to why he has support for some 59 00:03:18,040 --> 00:03:20,360 Speaker 3: of the things that he's doing. It's just important to 60 00:03:20,400 --> 00:03:23,200 Speaker 3: remember that what it is to be Russian, what it 61 00:03:23,360 --> 00:03:25,760 Speaker 3: was to be Russian, was very confusing at the time. 62 00:03:25,800 --> 00:03:28,960 Speaker 3: You know, it was the first time in centuries there 63 00:03:28,960 --> 00:03:31,560 Speaker 3: had never been a Russian state in the borders that 64 00:03:31,680 --> 00:03:33,960 Speaker 3: existed in nineteen ninety one, and so that was a 65 00:03:34,000 --> 00:03:36,640 Speaker 3: confusing time. And then where Russia stopped what it was 66 00:03:36,680 --> 00:03:39,400 Speaker 3: to be Russian. These are things that have been getting 67 00:03:39,440 --> 00:03:42,960 Speaker 3: worked out ever since nineteen ninety one, and in many ways, 68 00:03:43,000 --> 00:03:45,920 Speaker 3: I think that is exactly what's happening now, and sometimes 69 00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:47,840 Speaker 3: it's difficult for us to understand it. We tend to 70 00:03:47,880 --> 00:03:49,640 Speaker 3: be so self obsessed. We think it must be about 71 00:03:49,640 --> 00:03:51,840 Speaker 3: something that we did or we didn't do, and we 72 00:03:51,960 --> 00:03:55,720 Speaker 3: forget that other countries have histories and agencies. So looking back, 73 00:03:55,760 --> 00:03:58,160 Speaker 3: that's very important. And I think the second thing that 74 00:03:58,200 --> 00:04:00,720 Speaker 3: I would say is, you know, it was a really 75 00:04:00,920 --> 00:04:03,960 Speaker 3: huge moment in nineteen ninety three when you may remember 76 00:04:04,000 --> 00:04:05,840 Speaker 3: that Boris j Elsen blew up the parliament. 77 00:04:06,200 --> 00:04:07,920 Speaker 2: About one hundred and fifty people. 78 00:04:07,680 --> 00:04:11,200 Speaker 3: Died just under and there was days of fighting, and 79 00:04:11,320 --> 00:04:14,760 Speaker 3: we all remember that as a constitutional crisis, struggle for power, 80 00:04:14,760 --> 00:04:17,920 Speaker 3: which essentially it was. But what's often forgotten is that 81 00:04:17,960 --> 00:04:20,600 Speaker 3: one of the other reasons, one of the reasons that 82 00:04:20,600 --> 00:04:26,000 Speaker 3: that parliament was made up predominantly of Communist Party, members 83 00:04:26,320 --> 00:04:30,480 Speaker 3: of the New Communist Party and also nationalists, and one 84 00:04:30,480 --> 00:04:33,360 Speaker 3: of the things that they had consistently clashed with the 85 00:04:33,400 --> 00:04:37,200 Speaker 3: elsinover was that they refused to ratify what were called. 86 00:04:37,040 --> 00:04:39,280 Speaker 2: The Beelavisia push Accords. 87 00:04:39,760 --> 00:04:42,960 Speaker 3: And what that was was that was the moment when 88 00:04:43,040 --> 00:04:46,799 Speaker 3: Jelson with some other leaders, leader of Ukraine in particular 89 00:04:47,080 --> 00:04:50,720 Speaker 3: and of Beelarus, they dissolved the Soviet Union essentially, and 90 00:04:50,760 --> 00:04:54,640 Speaker 3: the Parliament was refusing to ratify that. And we forget 91 00:04:54,720 --> 00:04:58,600 Speaker 3: that right from the beginning, there was a resistance throughout 92 00:04:58,680 --> 00:05:02,200 Speaker 3: the system, in much of the population, to this idea 93 00:05:02,320 --> 00:05:04,800 Speaker 3: that the Soviet you know, they had to accept the 94 00:05:04,880 --> 00:05:07,560 Speaker 3: loss of empire. 95 00:05:07,560 --> 00:05:11,760 Speaker 1: And everything that goes with that prestige, self esteem, absolute 96 00:05:11,880 --> 00:05:14,839 Speaker 1: economic wealth, military power, et cetera, et cetera. 97 00:05:15,440 --> 00:05:17,560 Speaker 3: So, in many ways, I think what we are seeing 98 00:05:17,680 --> 00:05:22,719 Speaker 3: is the delayed playing out of all of those unresolved issues. 99 00:05:22,760 --> 00:05:26,200 Speaker 1: A response to the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and 100 00:05:26,320 --> 00:05:29,840 Speaker 1: putin really his rise is in the wreckage of all 101 00:05:29,880 --> 00:05:32,880 Speaker 1: of the moments around that from the dissolution of the 102 00:05:32,920 --> 00:05:36,239 Speaker 1: Soviet Union to botched privatizations, where there was a feeling 103 00:05:36,600 --> 00:05:40,720 Speaker 1: among average Russians that the privatizations really benefited a kind 104 00:05:40,760 --> 00:05:44,640 Speaker 1: of financial and political eat in Moscow and not in 105 00:05:44,720 --> 00:05:48,520 Speaker 1: other parts of the country. Right, Yeltsin brings Putin in. 106 00:05:49,200 --> 00:05:53,560 Speaker 1: You know, always mysteriously to me why he never recognized 107 00:05:53,600 --> 00:05:56,520 Speaker 1: that Putin could potentially be a threat or had the 108 00:05:56,560 --> 00:06:00,479 Speaker 1: appetites in him to end up where he's at it up. 109 00:06:00,600 --> 00:06:03,880 Speaker 1: But at the time, Yeltsin was a dysfunctional leader, essentially 110 00:06:03,920 --> 00:06:05,560 Speaker 1: struggling with alcoholism. 111 00:06:05,640 --> 00:06:08,039 Speaker 3: Is that a fair He had issues with alcoholism, He 112 00:06:08,120 --> 00:06:10,200 Speaker 3: had heart trouble, he had heart surgery. 113 00:06:10,600 --> 00:06:11,440 Speaker 2: He was at the end. 114 00:06:11,880 --> 00:06:16,080 Speaker 1: And then Putin essentially moves in and very quickly. This 115 00:06:16,160 --> 00:06:16,839 Speaker 1: is in January of. 116 00:06:16,800 --> 00:06:20,080 Speaker 3: Two thousand exactly, So he takes over in two thousand 117 00:06:20,080 --> 00:06:22,279 Speaker 3: and you know, ninety nine is the end of Yeltsin, 118 00:06:22,800 --> 00:06:28,040 Speaker 3: and puts In takes over this young, much younger, much fitter, dynamic, 119 00:06:28,120 --> 00:06:30,919 Speaker 3: but kind of yes enigmatic character. We didn't know a 120 00:06:30,920 --> 00:06:34,000 Speaker 3: lot about him. Russians didn't know him. They'd only really 121 00:06:34,040 --> 00:06:36,120 Speaker 3: come to have any kind of recognition of who he 122 00:06:36,279 --> 00:06:38,480 Speaker 3: was as a result of the Second Chechen War that 123 00:06:38,560 --> 00:06:40,720 Speaker 3: began towards the end of you know, in the second 124 00:06:40,720 --> 00:06:44,720 Speaker 3: half of nineteen ninety nine. It's just a very rough war, 125 00:06:45,000 --> 00:06:47,880 Speaker 3: and that really put in on the map. 126 00:06:47,880 --> 00:06:51,919 Speaker 1: And he embodies these resentments against the loss of empire 127 00:06:52,360 --> 00:06:54,560 Speaker 1: and sort of I think what he regarded as a 128 00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:56,120 Speaker 1: pernicious Western influence. 129 00:06:56,360 --> 00:06:58,719 Speaker 3: Yeah, well, there was definitely a kind of progression in 130 00:06:58,720 --> 00:07:01,719 Speaker 3: fact that you know, he was doing his marathon an 131 00:07:01,720 --> 00:07:04,920 Speaker 3: your kind of Q and A session, and he kind 132 00:07:04,920 --> 00:07:07,640 Speaker 3: of mused about this, you know, and he talked about 133 00:07:07,680 --> 00:07:10,880 Speaker 3: how he was naive at the beginning. He'd thought that 134 00:07:10,960 --> 00:07:13,160 Speaker 3: he could make friends of the West, the West, would 135 00:07:13,200 --> 00:07:16,080 Speaker 3: work with Russia, would make room for Russian interests, and 136 00:07:16,120 --> 00:07:18,600 Speaker 3: all that sort of thing. And so that's the narrative 137 00:07:18,680 --> 00:07:21,480 Speaker 3: that I think he would like us to see, which 138 00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:24,520 Speaker 3: is that he had the best of intentions, that it 139 00:07:24,560 --> 00:07:27,280 Speaker 3: wasn't his fault, it was the West fault that they 140 00:07:27,680 --> 00:07:30,760 Speaker 3: didn't treat Russia properly, didn't give it respect or room, 141 00:07:30,840 --> 00:07:34,560 Speaker 3: tried to humiliate it, and therefore we are where we are. 142 00:07:34,960 --> 00:07:38,400 Speaker 3: That's his narrative. I think the whole idea of a 143 00:07:38,520 --> 00:07:42,240 Speaker 3: career KGB officer who then cut his teeth in Saint 144 00:07:42,280 --> 00:07:47,080 Speaker 3: Petersburg in a basically mafia like environment, that he was 145 00:07:47,200 --> 00:07:51,840 Speaker 3: naive and put upon and so on by wiley Western 146 00:07:52,120 --> 00:07:55,320 Speaker 3: leaders and diplomats kind of unlikely, but there is something 147 00:07:55,360 --> 00:08:00,280 Speaker 3: to the fact that it took time to recognize exactly 148 00:08:00,320 --> 00:08:02,720 Speaker 3: what it was, you know, the West was willing to 149 00:08:02,800 --> 00:08:07,960 Speaker 3: accept and you know, what they saw as legitimate Russian interests, 150 00:08:08,520 --> 00:08:11,000 Speaker 3: and that those were absolutely not the same as the 151 00:08:11,000 --> 00:08:15,000 Speaker 3: ones that he figured that he needed to further and protect. 152 00:08:15,320 --> 00:08:19,960 Speaker 1: And presumably very early on Ukraine and his own imagination 153 00:08:20,160 --> 00:08:24,120 Speaker 1: and his practical day to day affairs as a Russian leader, 154 00:08:24,240 --> 00:08:26,040 Speaker 1: Ukraine is a thorn in his side. 155 00:08:26,960 --> 00:08:30,040 Speaker 3: He has been obsessed with Ukraine for a very long time, 156 00:08:30,600 --> 00:08:32,839 Speaker 3: and the first time it really kind of burst onto 157 00:08:32,880 --> 00:08:36,120 Speaker 3: the scene was with the two thousand and four Orange Revolution, 158 00:08:36,880 --> 00:08:41,560 Speaker 3: and he saw this as a threat to Russian interests. 159 00:08:42,040 --> 00:08:47,360 Speaker 3: These were basically pro Western, pro democracy and therefore pro 160 00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:52,000 Speaker 3: Western protests against a leader who Russia had been comfortable with. 161 00:08:52,600 --> 00:08:55,720 Speaker 3: So that's two thousand and four. You had this big fight. 162 00:08:56,440 --> 00:09:01,080 Speaker 3: Viktor Yanikovich wins the election, but through for all in Ukraine, 163 00:09:01,600 --> 00:09:05,240 Speaker 3: you then have these big protests and he's forced to 164 00:09:05,440 --> 00:09:09,200 Speaker 3: redo the election, loses with a real count, and then 165 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:11,880 Speaker 3: is replaced by somebody who is kind of pro European 166 00:09:11,960 --> 00:09:15,079 Speaker 3: and setting Ukraine on a different path, and to Putin 167 00:09:15,280 --> 00:09:18,120 Speaker 3: who does not believe in popular agency. You know, it 168 00:09:18,160 --> 00:09:21,600 Speaker 3: is leaders who make decisions. He saw this as a 169 00:09:21,600 --> 00:09:26,640 Speaker 3: threat and he spends the next decade trying everything through energy, blackmail, 170 00:09:27,240 --> 00:09:31,280 Speaker 3: giving money, giving cheap energy, taking it away. He tried 171 00:09:31,360 --> 00:09:35,959 Speaker 3: everything to maintain Ukraine within his sphere of influence, keep 172 00:09:36,000 --> 00:09:38,760 Speaker 3: it out of the US and European sphere of influence 173 00:09:38,800 --> 00:09:41,160 Speaker 3: the way that he saw all this, And you know, 174 00:09:41,320 --> 00:09:45,600 Speaker 3: finally twenty fourteen, you have another big protest revolution on 175 00:09:45,679 --> 00:09:48,760 Speaker 3: the streets. Again it is Yanikovich, who is Putin's guy, 176 00:09:49,240 --> 00:09:51,960 Speaker 3: who gets thrown out. And that was it, that was 177 00:09:52,040 --> 00:09:55,720 Speaker 3: put In deciding that I can't do this through these 178 00:09:55,800 --> 00:09:58,160 Speaker 3: various different tools, economic tools and so on. 179 00:09:58,200 --> 00:09:59,280 Speaker 2: Are going to have to use force. 180 00:10:00,160 --> 00:10:01,920 Speaker 1: Tell me during the you know, the arc of that 181 00:10:02,040 --> 00:10:04,720 Speaker 1: first decade and a half after Putin comes to power 182 00:10:04,720 --> 00:10:10,079 Speaker 1: in two thousand, how did Ukrainians generally see this? Because 183 00:10:10,080 --> 00:10:12,360 Speaker 1: it wasn't with a unified voice. There were parts of 184 00:10:12,360 --> 00:10:13,839 Speaker 1: the country that remained. 185 00:10:13,880 --> 00:10:16,360 Speaker 3: Strongly pro Russia absolutely. 186 00:10:15,840 --> 00:10:18,000 Speaker 1: And there were significant, obviously parts of the country that 187 00:10:18,080 --> 00:10:22,000 Speaker 1: also were looking west, away from Moscow and away from Putin. 188 00:10:22,760 --> 00:10:27,400 Speaker 1: How were these popular uprisings generally received within Ukraine itself? 189 00:10:28,000 --> 00:10:32,880 Speaker 3: So Ukraine was a very divided country, and you could 190 00:10:32,920 --> 00:10:35,800 Speaker 3: see that in pretty much every election. You know, you'd 191 00:10:35,800 --> 00:10:38,040 Speaker 3: see it just kind of split down the middle, or 192 00:10:38,080 --> 00:10:41,240 Speaker 3: actually what you saw was a moving line. If you 193 00:10:41,320 --> 00:10:44,960 Speaker 3: think of the country's politics and colors, the orange color 194 00:10:45,000 --> 00:10:47,280 Speaker 3: has been for the Orange Revolution two thousand and four 195 00:10:47,360 --> 00:10:50,439 Speaker 3: and ever since it's been the color of often the opposition, 196 00:10:50,559 --> 00:10:54,400 Speaker 3: but of the kind of pro European, pro Western track, 197 00:10:54,960 --> 00:10:57,600 Speaker 3: and blue has been the color of the more pro 198 00:10:57,679 --> 00:11:01,360 Speaker 3: Russian track, and that was the overtch Is party color. 199 00:11:01,880 --> 00:11:04,439 Speaker 3: And you could see when you had these electoral maps, 200 00:11:04,440 --> 00:11:08,599 Speaker 3: you could see the zone of orange creeping from basically 201 00:11:08,640 --> 00:11:12,160 Speaker 3: being more or less in the west and more than 202 00:11:12,200 --> 00:11:15,439 Speaker 3: half the country blue, and it just kind of crept across. 203 00:11:15,559 --> 00:11:18,520 Speaker 3: It overtook all of Kief and you know, the central 204 00:11:18,559 --> 00:11:22,120 Speaker 3: parts of Ukraine. But the thing that really changed everything 205 00:11:22,360 --> 00:11:25,480 Speaker 3: was twenty fourteen. It was the decision to a next 206 00:11:25,480 --> 00:11:29,600 Speaker 3: crimea and then to ferment a conflict in the east 207 00:11:29,640 --> 00:11:32,480 Speaker 3: of Ukraine. I was in Crimea at the time. I 208 00:11:32,520 --> 00:11:35,160 Speaker 3: went to the Dombas region at the time, and it 209 00:11:35,240 --> 00:11:38,920 Speaker 3: was really clear what was happening. But at that time, 210 00:11:39,400 --> 00:11:41,480 Speaker 3: for example, I was in Mariopaul a number of times 211 00:11:41,520 --> 00:11:45,440 Speaker 3: twenty fourteen, twenty fifteen, and Mariopaul was really a solidly 212 00:11:45,440 --> 00:11:49,240 Speaker 3: pro Russian city, but diancecorso nearby it and all along 213 00:11:49,240 --> 00:11:52,120 Speaker 3: that southern coast. You know, people have very divided loyalties. 214 00:11:52,160 --> 00:11:55,840 Speaker 3: They'd always voted solidly Blue. And I went back just 215 00:11:55,920 --> 00:11:58,480 Speaker 3: before the war, but you got eight years after that, 216 00:11:58,559 --> 00:12:01,920 Speaker 3: you know, after twenty fourteen, Crimea has taken begins this 217 00:12:02,000 --> 00:12:04,200 Speaker 3: war that really kind of there's a ceasefire, but it 218 00:12:04,240 --> 00:12:06,800 Speaker 3: continues at a low level for eight years. So I 219 00:12:06,840 --> 00:12:10,000 Speaker 3: went back just shortly before the invasion began in February 220 00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:12,440 Speaker 3: twenty two. So I was there in January, early February, 221 00:12:12,760 --> 00:12:15,560 Speaker 3: and I went back to Marioopol spent a bunch of 222 00:12:15,559 --> 00:12:19,520 Speaker 3: time there. It was transformed. Whereas it had been really 223 00:12:19,520 --> 00:12:24,000 Speaker 3: a solidly pro Russian city. Now even the people from 224 00:12:24,040 --> 00:12:27,920 Speaker 3: the Blue parties were not pro Russian. They might not 225 00:12:28,160 --> 00:12:30,800 Speaker 3: like the Orange parties in Kiev that didn't like them 226 00:12:30,840 --> 00:12:33,640 Speaker 3: at all. Wouldn't vote for them. They had their own parties, 227 00:12:33,679 --> 00:12:36,560 Speaker 3: but they did not want to be part of Russia, but. 228 00:12:36,600 --> 00:12:39,240 Speaker 1: Would slow down for a second. That point was that 229 00:12:39,360 --> 00:12:42,600 Speaker 1: because of the twenty twenty two invasion, or had that 230 00:12:42,720 --> 00:12:45,280 Speaker 1: sentiment already solidified. 231 00:12:44,600 --> 00:12:47,040 Speaker 2: Before that, This was before so specifically when it gave 232 00:12:47,120 --> 00:12:47,600 Speaker 2: rise to it. 233 00:12:47,679 --> 00:12:49,840 Speaker 1: You know, why did an area that had been so 234 00:12:50,000 --> 00:12:53,360 Speaker 1: deeply blue, so pro Russian gets swept up into the 235 00:12:53,400 --> 00:12:55,640 Speaker 1: Orange Revolution and affiliation with Ukraine. 236 00:12:55,679 --> 00:12:56,840 Speaker 2: There are a number of things. 237 00:12:56,960 --> 00:13:00,200 Speaker 3: One was that the annexation of Crimea and and then 238 00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:03,920 Speaker 3: the violence that followed in the East. Over time, those 239 00:13:04,320 --> 00:13:07,800 Speaker 3: started to be deeply resented. And you have to remember, 240 00:13:07,840 --> 00:13:10,480 Speaker 3: you know, just the front line that the ceasefire created, 241 00:13:10,520 --> 00:13:13,760 Speaker 3: and there were trenches where there's daily firing. There were 242 00:13:13,800 --> 00:13:16,440 Speaker 3: only like one hundred meters apart in many places, the 243 00:13:16,520 --> 00:13:19,600 Speaker 3: Russian and the Ukrainian trenches through the eight years, and 244 00:13:19,679 --> 00:13:24,040 Speaker 3: there's constant firing, constant fighting, constant body bags. And it's 245 00:13:24,440 --> 00:13:28,040 Speaker 3: I think that it's twenty about twenty kilometers from the 246 00:13:28,040 --> 00:13:31,719 Speaker 3: center of Mariyable, you know, just not far from the suburbs, 247 00:13:32,240 --> 00:13:34,640 Speaker 3: and people died, you know, they were shelling into the city, 248 00:13:34,880 --> 00:13:39,720 Speaker 3: and people got killed, and over time a resentment built. 249 00:13:40,320 --> 00:13:43,160 Speaker 3: And also they could see what happened in the occupied 250 00:13:43,200 --> 00:13:46,160 Speaker 3: parts of the Dunbass. You know, parts of the Dunetsk 251 00:13:46,200 --> 00:13:50,800 Speaker 3: and the Luhunsk regions were successfully occupied and behind the 252 00:13:50,960 --> 00:13:54,160 Speaker 3: by the Russians, well by the Russians and separatists. Yes, 253 00:13:54,480 --> 00:13:57,920 Speaker 3: they were behind these trenches and Ukrainians could see what 254 00:13:58,000 --> 00:14:00,880 Speaker 3: was going on behind there, and it did not look pretty. 255 00:14:01,360 --> 00:14:04,520 Speaker 3: It was run by a mix of clowns and mobsters 256 00:14:05,240 --> 00:14:09,040 Speaker 3: with Russian agents as the first Defense Minister was a 257 00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:12,040 Speaker 3: Russian former military intelligence if there is such a thing 258 00:14:12,080 --> 00:14:16,000 Speaker 3: as a former intelligence officer. People understood that this was 259 00:14:16,040 --> 00:14:17,760 Speaker 3: a very manipulated situation. 260 00:14:18,200 --> 00:14:18,400 Speaker 2: You know. 261 00:14:18,480 --> 00:14:20,520 Speaker 3: It did not produce anything good for the people who 262 00:14:20,600 --> 00:14:23,200 Speaker 3: were living there. It didn't look like a future that 263 00:14:23,240 --> 00:14:24,720 Speaker 3: people in Ukraine wanted. 264 00:14:25,240 --> 00:14:29,920 Speaker 1: And presumably Putin saw the annexation of Crimea as a 265 00:14:29,960 --> 00:14:32,680 Speaker 1: sort of warning shot to the rest of Ukraine. I'm 266 00:14:32,720 --> 00:14:35,800 Speaker 1: asserting my authority in the region. If you stay in 267 00:14:35,800 --> 00:14:39,280 Speaker 1: this direction, I will come in and fix this for myself. 268 00:14:40,240 --> 00:14:45,520 Speaker 1: But in reality, what the annexation did was solidify opposition, 269 00:14:45,600 --> 00:14:49,960 Speaker 1: at least in Crimea in southern Ukraine against Russia and 270 00:14:50,040 --> 00:14:53,560 Speaker 1: turned what had been a solidly blue area orange. 271 00:14:54,200 --> 00:14:56,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean Crimea itself of course was gone. And 272 00:14:56,880 --> 00:14:59,480 Speaker 3: it's the only part of Ukraine, the only province of 273 00:14:59,560 --> 00:15:03,080 Speaker 3: Ukraine it had a majority of ethnic Russians living there. 274 00:15:03,520 --> 00:15:07,280 Speaker 3: The whole east and south is predominantly Russian speaking, but 275 00:15:07,440 --> 00:15:10,800 Speaker 3: the Hessan region, for example, which has been fought over, 276 00:15:10,960 --> 00:15:13,920 Speaker 3: and the Russians took Hesson. It was the only provincial 277 00:15:13,920 --> 00:15:16,880 Speaker 3: capital that they took, you know, in this latest invasion, 278 00:15:17,160 --> 00:15:20,720 Speaker 3: and then they lost it. But that region was fourteen 279 00:15:20,840 --> 00:15:25,080 Speaker 3: percent ethnic Russian, but almost you know, entirely heavily Russians. 280 00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:28,120 Speaker 3: And the huge mistake that Putin made was to think 281 00:15:28,160 --> 00:15:32,280 Speaker 3: in twenty twenty two that he was invading the Ukraine 282 00:15:32,560 --> 00:15:37,400 Speaker 3: of twenty fourteen, and secondly that if people are Russian speaking, 283 00:15:37,960 --> 00:15:41,880 Speaker 3: they must be basically Russian. And he wrote a long 284 00:15:42,080 --> 00:15:44,720 Speaker 3: essay before the invasion, you know, a year before the invasion, 285 00:15:44,840 --> 00:15:48,040 Speaker 3: is five thousand word essay all about you know, the 286 00:15:48,080 --> 00:15:51,680 Speaker 3: connections between Russian Ukraine and his version of the history 287 00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:54,920 Speaker 3: very dubous. But nevertheless, they spent a lot of time 288 00:15:55,040 --> 00:15:57,480 Speaker 3: clearly thinking about it. And it's clear he wrote it 289 00:15:57,520 --> 00:16:01,880 Speaker 3: not some flunky, and that that showed how he thought 290 00:16:01,920 --> 00:16:04,920 Speaker 3: about Ukraine and explains a lot about why he got 291 00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:05,320 Speaker 3: it wrong. 292 00:16:05,720 --> 00:16:08,360 Speaker 1: And what was the clear takeaway from that essay in 293 00:16:08,400 --> 00:16:09,160 Speaker 1: your mind. 294 00:16:09,880 --> 00:16:15,640 Speaker 3: That his belief was that Ukraine was essentially, along with Yalarus, 295 00:16:15,960 --> 00:16:19,840 Speaker 3: a part of Russia, of the Russian people, and during 296 00:16:19,840 --> 00:16:22,160 Speaker 3: the Russian Empire it had always been called, you know, 297 00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:27,040 Speaker 3: little Russia, and Ukrainians were little Russians. So his view 298 00:16:27,920 --> 00:16:31,040 Speaker 3: was that these are really one people and they belonged together. 299 00:16:31,640 --> 00:16:34,720 Speaker 3: As he said, the borders, you know, Ukraine was created 300 00:16:34,760 --> 00:16:38,280 Speaker 3: by Lenin when they drew the borders, and before that, 301 00:16:38,440 --> 00:16:42,040 Speaker 3: Ukraine hadn't really existed, and it's all, you know, Lenin's fault, 302 00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:46,040 Speaker 3: and that's all in there. Of course, Ukrainians have a 303 00:16:46,160 --> 00:16:49,120 Speaker 3: national history. They've just been part of an empire for 304 00:16:49,240 --> 00:16:52,440 Speaker 3: centuries and mostly unwillingly. 305 00:16:52,480 --> 00:16:55,560 Speaker 1: And they see it as their specific history. Yeah, and 306 00:16:55,600 --> 00:16:57,960 Speaker 1: that they owned that history and it's not going to 307 00:16:57,960 --> 00:16:59,400 Speaker 1: be expropriated by anyone else. 308 00:16:59,440 --> 00:16:59,760 Speaker 2: They do. 309 00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:02,400 Speaker 3: And that version of history that put In wrote was 310 00:17:02,400 --> 00:17:04,560 Speaker 3: the version that everyone was taught, you know, throughout the 311 00:17:04,600 --> 00:17:07,239 Speaker 3: Russian Empire and the Soviet Union and so on, and 312 00:17:07,320 --> 00:17:10,119 Speaker 3: so Ukraine, just as much as Russia was having to 313 00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:12,240 Speaker 3: work out up to nineteen ninety one, what it meant 314 00:17:12,280 --> 00:17:14,320 Speaker 3: to be a Ukrainian, Where was Ukraine? 315 00:17:14,320 --> 00:17:16,600 Speaker 2: What was Ukraine? Just as Russians were. 316 00:17:17,080 --> 00:17:20,400 Speaker 3: This is a process that's been going on. 317 00:17:20,400 --> 00:17:22,000 Speaker 1: On that note, Mark, I want to take a quick 318 00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:23,560 Speaker 1: break to hear from one of our sponsors, and then 319 00:17:23,560 --> 00:17:31,720 Speaker 1: we'll come right back. I'm back with Mark Champion, a 320 00:17:31,720 --> 00:17:35,359 Speaker 1: Bloomberg opinion columnist, and we're discussing the war in Ukraine. Mark, 321 00:17:35,440 --> 00:17:38,399 Speaker 1: you were laying out quite eloquently and with great specificity, 322 00:17:38,520 --> 00:17:44,159 Speaker 1: the context for Putin's paranoia about Ukraine, his desire to 323 00:17:44,200 --> 00:17:49,040 Speaker 1: reassert Russian control over Ukraine, and how the Ukrainians themselves 324 00:17:49,119 --> 00:17:51,720 Speaker 1: saw all of this. And one thing you pointed out 325 00:17:51,720 --> 00:17:54,400 Speaker 1: on the top of the show was that whatever Putin's 326 00:17:54,480 --> 00:17:58,320 Speaker 1: goals were when he annexed Crimea, he ended up getting 327 00:17:58,680 --> 00:18:03,119 Speaker 1: the opposite result. He didn't tamp down an interest in 328 00:18:03,119 --> 00:18:07,480 Speaker 1: independence among Ukrainians, and he didn't make Ukrainians more loyal 329 00:18:07,560 --> 00:18:11,000 Speaker 1: to Russia. But apparently he didn't learn that lesson very 330 00:18:11,040 --> 00:18:14,720 Speaker 1: well because in twenty twenty two he amounts a full 331 00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:17,320 Speaker 1: scale invasion, maybe because he didn't get the results he 332 00:18:17,359 --> 00:18:20,919 Speaker 1: wanted in twenty fourteen, But he certainly scenes to have 333 00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:24,679 Speaker 1: expected something very different in twenty twenty two than what 334 00:18:24,760 --> 00:18:25,200 Speaker 1: he got. 335 00:18:25,240 --> 00:18:28,920 Speaker 3: Correct, absolutely, I mean, we know for a fact that 336 00:18:29,040 --> 00:18:31,880 Speaker 3: when the Russians came in and columns, you know, not 337 00:18:31,920 --> 00:18:35,160 Speaker 3: only did they not form the columns in the way 338 00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:37,040 Speaker 3: that you would if you were going in to fight 339 00:18:37,080 --> 00:18:41,159 Speaker 3: a war, which left them very vulnerable, they also carried 340 00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:44,119 Speaker 3: parade uniforms with them and only a few days supply 341 00:18:44,640 --> 00:18:48,879 Speaker 3: of food. Clearly, the idea was that they expected to 342 00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:52,920 Speaker 3: more or less march into the major city's takeover the administration. 343 00:18:53,440 --> 00:18:56,280 Speaker 3: There wouldn't be much fighting, if any, and it would 344 00:18:56,280 --> 00:18:59,440 Speaker 3: all be done very smoothly, rather like in Crimea, which 345 00:18:59,440 --> 00:19:03,520 Speaker 3: is an un bel believably successful operation virtually without bloodshed 346 00:19:03,880 --> 00:19:05,000 Speaker 3: and very very smooth. 347 00:19:05,480 --> 00:19:07,520 Speaker 1: How did he get it so wrong? Because so many 348 00:19:07,520 --> 00:19:10,800 Speaker 1: things have emerged since that invasion. You know, the mighty 349 00:19:11,000 --> 00:19:16,080 Speaker 1: Russian war machine was inept and bedraggled and poorly led. 350 00:19:16,600 --> 00:19:19,960 Speaker 1: The machinery itself wasn't in top condition that he was 351 00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:24,320 Speaker 1: relying on, and he clearly underestimated the kind of opposition 352 00:19:25,119 --> 00:19:27,879 Speaker 1: that he would encounter and that his military would encounter. 353 00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:31,040 Speaker 1: How did that happen? Given that Putin is a well 354 00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:35,760 Speaker 1: known control freak and scoops up as much information as 355 00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:39,240 Speaker 1: he can about the things he oversees. Yet there appear 356 00:19:39,320 --> 00:19:41,600 Speaker 1: to have been massive gaps in his knowledge. 357 00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:44,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I think the best explanation of that 358 00:19:45,200 --> 00:19:48,800 Speaker 3: is that he built a system and coacherie around him 359 00:19:49,520 --> 00:19:54,439 Speaker 3: entirely based on loyalty rather than merit, etc. And over time, 360 00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:58,240 Speaker 3: as so often happens in these kinds of regimes, people 361 00:19:58,400 --> 00:20:01,440 Speaker 3: stop telling him things that they don't think he wants 362 00:20:01,440 --> 00:20:03,880 Speaker 3: to hear. And so I have no doubt that there 363 00:20:03,920 --> 00:20:07,520 Speaker 3: were people in the Russian intelligence Service, precisely because they 364 00:20:07,520 --> 00:20:12,679 Speaker 3: were deeply penetrated into Ukrainian security agencies, etc. Who knew 365 00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:16,240 Speaker 3: what was going on. But the question is what rises 366 00:20:16,280 --> 00:20:19,880 Speaker 3: through all the way to the people who actually engage 367 00:20:19,920 --> 00:20:22,640 Speaker 3: with Putin and what they are willing to tell him 368 00:20:22,680 --> 00:20:24,880 Speaker 3: and what story they want to tell him, because they 369 00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:26,840 Speaker 3: may have an agenda of their own in terms of 370 00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:29,639 Speaker 3: what they want him to actually do. So, you know, 371 00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:31,159 Speaker 3: there's a lot of talk also about that. You know, 372 00:20:31,160 --> 00:20:33,800 Speaker 3: there was the COVID period when he was very very isolated. 373 00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:37,639 Speaker 3: I think it was Lavrov, who once supposedly equipped, you know, 374 00:20:37,680 --> 00:20:41,680 Speaker 3: not quite recently, Sergaylvro, Sergailavrov, the foreign minister, when someone 375 00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:43,520 Speaker 3: asked him, you know, so who does put and take 376 00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:47,240 Speaker 3: advice from, and he just mentioned three different stars and himself. 377 00:20:47,520 --> 00:20:49,280 Speaker 2: I think there was a big element of that. 378 00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:52,200 Speaker 1: Were you surprised when he invaded? 379 00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:54,879 Speaker 3: Well, the reason I went to Mariopaul was that I 380 00:20:55,080 --> 00:20:58,439 Speaker 3: was convinced that he would not because I had some 381 00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:02,160 Speaker 3: special insight or anything. But it was very clear that 382 00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:03,879 Speaker 3: there were two things going on. One was that the 383 00:21:03,920 --> 00:21:07,119 Speaker 3: Americans were shedding a lot of intelligence, making your public 384 00:21:07,160 --> 00:21:09,000 Speaker 3: and saying very clearly that this was going to happen. 385 00:21:09,560 --> 00:21:12,480 Speaker 3: And while I'm not a huge believer in everything that 386 00:21:12,600 --> 00:21:15,560 Speaker 3: American intelligence says, this made a lot of sense. And 387 00:21:15,600 --> 00:21:18,040 Speaker 3: there was so much going on on the ground that 388 00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:20,800 Speaker 3: only made sense if they were going to go in. 389 00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:23,320 Speaker 3: This was the second year in which they had piled 390 00:21:23,400 --> 00:21:26,520 Speaker 3: up troops against the border, and so it didn't surprise 391 00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:29,359 Speaker 3: me at the moment it happened. What was interesting was 392 00:21:29,400 --> 00:21:32,880 Speaker 3: talking even to people I've known for frankly decades who 393 00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:38,600 Speaker 3: advised the Kremlin and are talking to them, they genuinely, 394 00:21:39,160 --> 00:21:41,240 Speaker 3: I'm absolutely convinced that that they weren't sort. 395 00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:41,679 Speaker 2: Of making it up. 396 00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:44,359 Speaker 3: They genuinely did not think he would do it, because 397 00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:48,440 Speaker 3: in their view, it was not rational, and it would be, 398 00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:50,560 Speaker 3: as one of them put it, just a week or 399 00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:53,040 Speaker 3: two before the invasion, a couple of weeks, you know, 400 00:21:53,119 --> 00:21:55,600 Speaker 3: it would be catastrophic for Russia's interests. 401 00:21:56,280 --> 00:21:59,400 Speaker 1: Like firefighters who run into burning buildings instead of out 402 00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:02,800 Speaker 1: of them, Mark is a foreign correspondent who runs toward 403 00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:05,399 Speaker 1: a looming war rather than run away from it. I 404 00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:08,760 Speaker 1: think it speaks to both his incredible dedication to his 405 00:22:08,880 --> 00:22:12,560 Speaker 1: job and his courage. When you were in Mariupol, were 406 00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:18,359 Speaker 1: you also surprised in any way by the sentiments you 407 00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:22,679 Speaker 1: were encountering among Ukrainians themselves that gave you an inkling 408 00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:27,199 Speaker 1: of how courageous and purposeful their own response to the 409 00:22:27,200 --> 00:22:27,960 Speaker 1: invasion would be. 410 00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:29,560 Speaker 2: Yes, I think so. 411 00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:31,639 Speaker 3: I mean, there were a few things that struck me. 412 00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:33,720 Speaker 3: One was that, you know, if you talked to over 413 00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:36,680 Speaker 3: sixty fives, you know, in the suburbs there was still 414 00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:40,200 Speaker 3: a pro Russian kind of current there. So that's one 415 00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:42,399 Speaker 3: thing that struck me, was that it's not like everybody 416 00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:45,840 Speaker 3: had changed their views. The second was that, as I 417 00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:48,439 Speaker 3: mentioned before, this sort of huge change compared to a 418 00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:51,400 Speaker 3: time when it had been just solidly pro Russian and 419 00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:54,240 Speaker 3: even the mayor, who was, you know, from the Blue Party, 420 00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:58,239 Speaker 3: he was very much pro Ukraine and so on, and 421 00:22:58,280 --> 00:22:59,960 Speaker 3: it was clear that they would fight. 422 00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:00,600 Speaker 2: Clear to me. 423 00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:03,600 Speaker 3: But also what was very striking is that in the 424 00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:06,840 Speaker 3: entire time, I don't think I met anybody who thought 425 00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:11,080 Speaker 3: among the Ukrainians, and certainly Zelenski the president, didn't think 426 00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:13,080 Speaker 3: that the Russians were actually gonna invade. 427 00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:16,280 Speaker 1: And Zelenski himself turned out to be a much more 428 00:23:16,640 --> 00:23:19,560 Speaker 1: capable and courageous leader than some thought he might be 429 00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:22,760 Speaker 1: when the war first started. But also at least it 430 00:23:22,840 --> 00:23:27,560 Speaker 1: was curious to me how torn some Western powers were 431 00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:30,640 Speaker 1: at the time about whether or not to commit themselves 432 00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:36,840 Speaker 1: to support Ukraine in its struggle against Russia, particularly Germany, 433 00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:38,720 Speaker 1: which I think was a little bit slow off the 434 00:23:38,720 --> 00:23:42,679 Speaker 1: mark early on, and other European nations. What accounted for 435 00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:44,400 Speaker 1: some of that early hesitation. 436 00:23:44,920 --> 00:23:46,919 Speaker 3: Well, I think it's different for different countries. I mean 437 00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:49,520 Speaker 3: Germany is a really good example. Germany just had so 438 00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:53,280 Speaker 3: far to travel. They had an Ostpolity because they called 439 00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:56,199 Speaker 3: it for a very long time, which was always about 440 00:23:56,280 --> 00:24:00,639 Speaker 3: engaging Russia. Economically kind of drawing it in so that 441 00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:04,120 Speaker 3: it would have an interest in being cooperative rather than disruptive. 442 00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:08,200 Speaker 3: And they stuck with that long after. You know, many people, 443 00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:11,399 Speaker 3: especially in Eastern Europe, were warning them that this wasn't 444 00:24:11,400 --> 00:24:14,160 Speaker 3: really working, and there was, for example, with the annexation 445 00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:16,919 Speaker 3: of Crimea, there was some evidence there to say that 446 00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:19,560 Speaker 3: it wasn't. But nevertheless, and all the while becoming heavily 447 00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:23,800 Speaker 3: dependent energy experts exactly on Russian energy, and a huge 448 00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:26,520 Speaker 3: investor in Russia, so with a great deal to lose. 449 00:24:27,160 --> 00:24:30,560 Speaker 3: So when this happened, that when the invasion happened, that 450 00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:34,639 Speaker 3: policy just suddenly was incinerated. But they just had so 451 00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:38,120 Speaker 3: far to travel to get from that kind of oss politique, 452 00:24:38,240 --> 00:24:42,000 Speaker 3: all the way over to Germany post war Germany actually 453 00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:45,919 Speaker 3: arming a country to fight Russia. They just had a 454 00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:48,359 Speaker 3: really long way to go. And actually, you know, in 455 00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:50,680 Speaker 3: terms of Germany, I think they moved a lot faster 456 00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:50,919 Speaker 3: than I. 457 00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:51,600 Speaker 2: Would have thought. 458 00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:55,159 Speaker 1: Eventually, the West did develop a coordinated response, and I 459 00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:58,560 Speaker 1: shouldn't say just the West. Japan was an active participant 460 00:24:58,960 --> 00:25:04,680 Speaker 1: in the response, but arms, money, and economic sanctions eventually followed, 461 00:25:04,800 --> 00:25:09,040 Speaker 1: all in an effort to support Ukraine isolate Russia and 462 00:25:09,119 --> 00:25:11,800 Speaker 1: tried to bring the war to a conclusion. NATO became 463 00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:14,840 Speaker 1: more fortified, which I think is something Putin didn't want 464 00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:18,400 Speaker 1: and probably didn't expect out of this action. And it 465 00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:22,000 Speaker 1: went so well for Ukraine in some of the early stages. 466 00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:25,679 Speaker 1: That's putting aside all of the deaths that the country 467 00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:28,919 Speaker 1: has had to absorb and all of the grotesque aspects 468 00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:32,800 Speaker 1: of warfare that accompanied those deaths. But it did not 469 00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:35,840 Speaker 1: only make a strong stand, it actually began progressing towards 470 00:25:35,840 --> 00:25:38,760 Speaker 1: the Russian border in its own military efforts, which I 471 00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:42,639 Speaker 1: don't think anyone expected. Here we are now, it's reached 472 00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:46,440 Speaker 1: a stalemate, and all of these countries that have supported 473 00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:50,920 Speaker 1: Ukraine till now are definitely wavering. I'm not saying they're 474 00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:53,879 Speaker 1: turning their back yet, but the tens of billions of 475 00:25:53,880 --> 00:25:57,560 Speaker 1: dollars in financial and military aid that has flowed from 476 00:25:57,600 --> 00:26:00,879 Speaker 1: Western Europe and primarily the UK and Germany and then 477 00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:04,439 Speaker 1: the United States, tens of billions of dollars more is 478 00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:07,359 Speaker 1: up for grabs. How did we get there? How did 479 00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:10,800 Speaker 1: we end up in a place where people are having 480 00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:13,880 Speaker 1: doubts about whether or not to continue to support Ukraine? 481 00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:14,600 Speaker 2: Right. 482 00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:17,320 Speaker 3: Well, I think there are two ways to look at this. 483 00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:20,320 Speaker 3: If you look at it from outside, from the point 484 00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:23,200 Speaker 3: of view of the Americans, the Germans, French, the uk etc. 485 00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:26,919 Speaker 3: So from that point of view, I think there was, 486 00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:30,920 Speaker 3: as so often in these cases, a mismatch of expectations. 487 00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:34,600 Speaker 3: So the expectation was set, you know, after Ukraine started 488 00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:38,000 Speaker 3: to do well that the measure for winning was actually 489 00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:40,000 Speaker 3: it was to take the territory back, and of course 490 00:26:40,000 --> 00:26:43,919 Speaker 3: that was encouraged by the Ukrainians who wanted their territory back. Politically, 491 00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:46,120 Speaker 3: it became impossible to say we're not going to take 492 00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:48,800 Speaker 3: it all back, so you had Zelenski saying we're going 493 00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:51,240 Speaker 3: to carry on fighting until we take back Crimea, and 494 00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:54,840 Speaker 3: we're right back to the borders in twenty thirteen, you know, 495 00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:57,240 Speaker 3: right back to the nineteen ninety one borders when we 496 00:26:57,320 --> 00:27:02,040 Speaker 3: had everything those expectations who were unrealistic from the start, 497 00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:04,520 Speaker 3: And the reason you need to sort of look at 498 00:27:04,520 --> 00:27:06,920 Speaker 3: it from two sides is that from the Ukrainian point 499 00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:10,720 Speaker 3: of view, they were unrealistic because the West chose to 500 00:27:10,840 --> 00:27:14,439 Speaker 3: drip feed arms to Ukraine. So at the moment when 501 00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:17,920 Speaker 3: the Russians were unprepared and when they were losing territory. 502 00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:21,760 Speaker 3: They hadn't dug in and the Ukrainians had momentum, and 503 00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:24,639 Speaker 3: they even had more personnel in the field than the 504 00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:28,920 Speaker 3: Russians did at that moment. The Ukrainians did not have 505 00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:32,520 Speaker 3: what it would take in order to push their advantage 506 00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:35,639 Speaker 3: all the way through. They didn't have enough combat jets, 507 00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:38,639 Speaker 3: they didn't have enough tanks, they didn't have enough longer 508 00:27:38,760 --> 00:27:42,159 Speaker 3: range missiles. They just didn't have enough of anything. If 509 00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:46,320 Speaker 3: they'd had everything they have now back in last fall, 510 00:27:46,880 --> 00:27:49,720 Speaker 3: then this would have been over. That's the Ukrainian point 511 00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:51,760 Speaker 3: of view. The reason that the stuff was drip fed 512 00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:54,399 Speaker 3: was that there was always a concern in the US 513 00:27:54,560 --> 00:27:58,520 Speaker 3: in particular, which was really calling the shots that escalation management. 514 00:27:58,520 --> 00:28:01,760 Speaker 3: You wanted to make sure that the Russians didn't panic 515 00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:04,280 Speaker 3: and push a red button, you know, of one kind 516 00:28:04,400 --> 00:28:07,920 Speaker 3: or another. So they really wanted to kind of stage things. 517 00:28:08,080 --> 00:28:11,840 Speaker 3: We don't know, for example, what conversations the Americans might 518 00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:14,399 Speaker 3: have been having with the Chinese. You know, we know 519 00:28:14,440 --> 00:28:16,880 Speaker 3: that the Chinese have had something influence on the Russians. 520 00:28:17,760 --> 00:28:19,920 Speaker 3: Do not want this to turn into a nuclear conflict, 521 00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:21,920 Speaker 3: and so on. There's stuff that we may not know 522 00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:24,800 Speaker 3: until archives are opened about you know, everything that went 523 00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:28,040 Speaker 3: on behind the scenes. But it's clear that escalation management 524 00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:31,399 Speaker 3: was a big deal and that it governed how things 525 00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:33,160 Speaker 3: were distributed at what pace. 526 00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:36,840 Speaker 1: Mark, let's take a quick break on that note, and 527 00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:43,040 Speaker 1: then we'll come back to this very interesting conversation. I'm 528 00:28:43,040 --> 00:28:45,760 Speaker 1: back with Mark Champion of Bloomberg Opinion Calumnist, and he 529 00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:49,600 Speaker 1: is educating me about what a stalemate in the Ukraine 530 00:28:49,640 --> 00:28:52,800 Speaker 1: War might involve. On that note, Mark, the idea of 531 00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:57,960 Speaker 1: a stalemate, what's at stake for Europe and the US 532 00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:02,760 Speaker 1: specifically in addition to you, of course, if military aid 533 00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:06,800 Speaker 1: and financial support doesn't continue. Packages have been held up 534 00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:11,240 Speaker 1: recently in the United States, Republicans in Congress have blocked 535 00:29:11,400 --> 00:29:16,400 Speaker 1: about sixty billion dollars in usaid to Ukraine, and more recently, 536 00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:20,440 Speaker 1: Hungry blocked a package of about fifty five billion dollars 537 00:29:20,440 --> 00:29:25,720 Speaker 1: in euaid to Ukraine. That's life support literally and figuratively 538 00:29:25,880 --> 00:29:29,880 Speaker 1: for Ukraine. What are the consequences of drawing all that down? 539 00:29:30,520 --> 00:29:31,640 Speaker 2: I mean they are severe. 540 00:29:31,760 --> 00:29:33,960 Speaker 3: So I think if we start from the point of 541 00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:37,600 Speaker 3: view of what happens on the ground, the important thing 542 00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:43,200 Speaker 3: to understand and categorically to understand is that the consequence 543 00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:50,040 Speaker 3: of stopping support for Ukraine is not peace. The consequence 544 00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:54,920 Speaker 3: is lost, and it will be many human lives lost, 545 00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:58,840 Speaker 3: it will be territory lost, and it will be sovereign 546 00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:03,000 Speaker 3: independence of country lost. The Russians have made this very 547 00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:06,480 Speaker 3: very clear. Putin has made it clear. The Russian ambassador 548 00:30:06,480 --> 00:30:09,400 Speaker 3: at the UN said, you know, we're happy to talk 549 00:30:09,760 --> 00:30:13,640 Speaker 3: to Ukraine about a ceasefire, but it will require their capitulation, 550 00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:17,360 Speaker 3: and Putin reiterated what our goals are. He was asked 551 00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:19,640 Speaker 3: for what would it take to have peace in Ukraine 552 00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:22,400 Speaker 3: and he says, well, we'll have peace in Ukraine once 553 00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:24,840 Speaker 3: our goals are achieved, same as he said in twenty 554 00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:30,120 Speaker 3: twenty two. It's denatification, which means regime change, it's demilitarization, 555 00:30:30,240 --> 00:30:33,760 Speaker 3: which means disarmament. So one has to kind of bear 556 00:30:33,800 --> 00:30:36,920 Speaker 3: in mind that the option for a peace and cease 557 00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:40,479 Speaker 3: fire where everybody just stops fighting does not exist because 558 00:30:40,680 --> 00:30:43,840 Speaker 3: Russia is very confident now. They now believe that they 559 00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:47,120 Speaker 3: can win. Having been kind of humiliated for a couple 560 00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:49,640 Speaker 3: of years, nevertheless, they can ultimately win. 561 00:30:49,920 --> 00:30:52,120 Speaker 1: I think in that same speech you reference from Putin, 562 00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:54,920 Speaker 1: he said he believed that momentum was on his side, 563 00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:55,600 Speaker 1: and he is. 564 00:30:55,640 --> 00:30:56,440 Speaker 2: I mean, he's correct. 565 00:30:57,320 --> 00:31:00,320 Speaker 3: What's happened this year is that the Ukrainians to the 566 00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:04,680 Speaker 3: counter offensive and it ran into sand. There is a stalemate, 567 00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:08,320 Speaker 3: but those can be easily broken, and the Russians are 568 00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:11,440 Speaker 3: the ones who are on the offensive now across the east. 569 00:31:11,960 --> 00:31:16,000 Speaker 1: For Europeans and Americans who are saying, how does it 570 00:31:16,040 --> 00:31:19,000 Speaker 1: really hurt us to stop paying for this war? Why 571 00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:21,880 Speaker 1: should we? There's all sorts of social needs in our 572 00:31:21,880 --> 00:31:24,640 Speaker 1: own countries that we could use tens of billions of 573 00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:27,680 Speaker 1: dollars for. Why keep paying for this effort? How do 574 00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:28,880 Speaker 1: you answer that kind of a question. 575 00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:33,400 Speaker 3: Well, I think the first one is have some perspective, right, So, yes, 576 00:31:33,560 --> 00:31:37,360 Speaker 3: fifty five billion dollars from Europe, something similar maybe a 577 00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:40,080 Speaker 3: bit more from the US. There's a group called the 578 00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:43,440 Speaker 3: Ramstein Group, which is since the beginning of the invasion, 579 00:31:43,600 --> 00:31:47,720 Speaker 3: it's been meeting to organize what to get to Ukraine. 580 00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:51,280 Speaker 3: The combined GDP of the Ramstein Group is forty to 581 00:31:51,360 --> 00:31:56,280 Speaker 3: seven trillion dollars. This is affordable. So the first thing 582 00:31:56,360 --> 00:31:58,640 Speaker 3: is that when people start saying, you know, oh my gosh, 583 00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:03,160 Speaker 3: fifty billion in EU. This is again a multi multi 584 00:32:03,160 --> 00:32:07,440 Speaker 3: trillion dollar economy, so fifty billion is affordable. The second 585 00:32:07,600 --> 00:32:10,280 Speaker 3: is that it's not we pay it or we pay nothing, 586 00:32:11,400 --> 00:32:15,720 Speaker 3: because the consequences of having a Russian victory mean that 587 00:32:15,760 --> 00:32:19,120 Speaker 3: you will then have to deal with and prepare for 588 00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:23,560 Speaker 3: all kinds of new eventualities which are created by facts 589 00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:26,640 Speaker 3: on the ground, the fact that as in Beelorus, where 590 00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:30,920 Speaker 3: the Russians have said they're stationing their nuclear missiles, now 591 00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:34,200 Speaker 3: the situation in Ukraine will be very different. I mean 592 00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:36,840 Speaker 3: Putin said he was talking about you know what was 593 00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:39,479 Speaker 3: Russian and so on, and the Odessa is Russian in 594 00:32:39,520 --> 00:32:42,719 Speaker 3: his view, so that also is unfinished business. If he's 595 00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:45,760 Speaker 3: an Aandeessa, he's right next to Transnistria, which is a 596 00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:49,200 Speaker 3: breakaway pro Russian piece of Moldova. The Russians have spent 597 00:32:49,280 --> 00:32:52,800 Speaker 3: billions to try and destabilize Moldova. They will go in. 598 00:32:53,440 --> 00:32:55,840 Speaker 3: Then they're on the border of Romania, which is an 599 00:32:55,880 --> 00:32:59,160 Speaker 3: EU country. It changes everything, Like you know in a 600 00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:02,320 Speaker 3: game of risk, when you control different pieces of territory, 601 00:33:02,320 --> 00:33:06,560 Speaker 3: it changes the nature of the game. And Europe and 602 00:33:06,640 --> 00:33:10,520 Speaker 3: the US will have to pay to prepare and adjust 603 00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:11,960 Speaker 3: for these different things. 604 00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:14,040 Speaker 1: So if they don't pay now, they'll pay later. 605 00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:15,720 Speaker 2: They will pay later, and they will pay more. 606 00:33:16,120 --> 00:33:20,480 Speaker 1: I'm curious about how this has all affected Putin's standing 607 00:33:20,520 --> 00:33:23,880 Speaker 1: in leadership within Russia. There was a lot of speculation 608 00:33:24,360 --> 00:33:26,440 Speaker 1: that if he was to be removed from power, it 609 00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:29,480 Speaker 1: would have to involve some sort of an internal coup 610 00:33:29,680 --> 00:33:33,680 Speaker 1: or meaningful opposition at the highest levels within the Kremlin, 611 00:33:34,000 --> 00:33:36,640 Speaker 1: and that if this war dragged on for a long time, 612 00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:41,720 Speaker 1: over time, perhaps his invincibility would erode and you might 613 00:33:41,760 --> 00:33:45,120 Speaker 1: see action against him. That certainly appears to have changed 614 00:33:45,160 --> 00:33:47,840 Speaker 1: as well. But maybe this is just reading tea leaves 615 00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:50,479 Speaker 1: without any real certainty. But I'm curious how you think 616 00:33:50,520 --> 00:33:51,000 Speaker 1: about that. 617 00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:54,360 Speaker 3: To me, this idea that he was at political risk 618 00:33:54,400 --> 00:33:57,600 Speaker 3: has always been a fantasy. He's never been at political risk. 619 00:33:58,040 --> 00:34:02,520 Speaker 3: He's not dumb politically. He made mistakes in Ukraine, strategic mistakes, 620 00:34:02,520 --> 00:34:05,680 Speaker 3: and he has some i think misguided ideas about foreign 621 00:34:05,720 --> 00:34:08,359 Speaker 3: policy and Russia's place in the world what it needs 622 00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:10,480 Speaker 3: to be. But politically he's not done at all. He 623 00:34:10,560 --> 00:34:13,920 Speaker 3: built a system, he understands it's completely and it's not 624 00:34:14,000 --> 00:34:17,520 Speaker 3: for nothing that he called this invasion. By close to 625 00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:21,319 Speaker 3: two hundred thousand troops, a special military operation, and not 626 00:34:21,400 --> 00:34:24,600 Speaker 3: a war. He wanted to sell this to Russians as 627 00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:29,319 Speaker 3: something that he's got in control. It's not existential, and 628 00:34:29,520 --> 00:34:32,399 Speaker 3: we have this. So I think even if he had 629 00:34:32,400 --> 00:34:35,960 Speaker 3: had to settle and stop, he would have been fine. Politically, 630 00:34:36,120 --> 00:34:38,640 Speaker 3: he'd be fine. Now, of course, he's got the bit 631 00:34:38,640 --> 00:34:41,600 Speaker 3: between his teeth again. He has the opportunity to show 632 00:34:42,000 --> 00:34:44,760 Speaker 3: that he didn't make a mistake, that Russia is capable 633 00:34:44,800 --> 00:34:47,160 Speaker 3: of being the kind of great power again that he 634 00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:50,600 Speaker 3: was trying to demonstrate in the first place. So he's 635 00:34:51,280 --> 00:34:53,120 Speaker 3: in a stronger position he's been for a while. 636 00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:58,560 Speaker 1: He's been willing to essentially put tens of thousands of 637 00:34:58,560 --> 00:35:01,040 Speaker 1: troops through a meat grinder, sending them on to a 638 00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:05,600 Speaker 1: battlefield almost as cannon fodder. Russias emptied out its prisons 639 00:35:05,640 --> 00:35:09,360 Speaker 1: to populate its military forces. There had been one argument 640 00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:12,400 Speaker 1: that if there wasn't any kind of a coup against 641 00:35:12,400 --> 00:35:15,680 Speaker 1: Putin at the very top, there might be popular sentiment 642 00:35:15,760 --> 00:35:20,360 Speaker 1: that gained so much momentum once average Russians and grandmothers 643 00:35:21,280 --> 00:35:25,239 Speaker 1: saw their sons disabled or killed in this war, that 644 00:35:25,320 --> 00:35:27,759 Speaker 1: you might see at ground swell from the bottom up. 645 00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:30,720 Speaker 1: But I take it. You don't think that's likely either, No. 646 00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:34,360 Speaker 3: Not at all. I mean, Putin understands his own military 647 00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:37,200 Speaker 3: very well. He knows how they fight, and you know, 648 00:35:37,280 --> 00:35:39,120 Speaker 3: once did it all become clear this is going to 649 00:35:39,120 --> 00:35:41,719 Speaker 3: be a proper war, he knew how ugly it will be. 650 00:35:42,400 --> 00:35:45,680 Speaker 3: And for that reason he has not issued a general 651 00:35:45,719 --> 00:35:50,279 Speaker 3: mobilization which would affect the children of the elites and 652 00:35:50,360 --> 00:35:53,560 Speaker 3: the middle classes in Moscow and St. Petersburg, et cetera. 653 00:35:54,040 --> 00:35:56,920 Speaker 3: You know, the recruitment, as you say, has been in prisons. 654 00:35:57,040 --> 00:36:00,480 Speaker 3: It's also been in predominantly in provinces, in villages where 655 00:36:00,680 --> 00:36:05,960 Speaker 3: not only is sort of political power more dispersed, so 656 00:36:06,160 --> 00:36:08,440 Speaker 3: it's less likely that you're going to get, you know, 657 00:36:08,520 --> 00:36:14,319 Speaker 3: a coordinated protest. Also, families are being offered quite significant 658 00:36:14,320 --> 00:36:19,680 Speaker 3: compensation when their sons or husbands and fathers die, you know, 659 00:36:19,760 --> 00:36:22,319 Speaker 3: relative to the salary that someone can expect in a 660 00:36:22,320 --> 00:36:26,879 Speaker 3: small village in Siberia. These compensations are very significant. So 661 00:36:27,280 --> 00:36:30,719 Speaker 3: that has all helped to make sure that there isn't 662 00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:33,680 Speaker 3: a big blowback, and so far he really hasn't seen it. 663 00:36:34,320 --> 00:36:36,719 Speaker 1: If he emerges as a victor in this war in 664 00:36:36,800 --> 00:36:40,920 Speaker 1: Ukraine and slowdifies control over the entire country. What do 665 00:36:40,960 --> 00:36:44,440 Speaker 1: you see as the first steps he takes in the 666 00:36:44,480 --> 00:36:48,000 Speaker 1: wake of that, strategically and tactically, like, what would his 667 00:36:48,200 --> 00:36:49,239 Speaker 1: next moves be. 668 00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:52,319 Speaker 3: Well, I think he is now convinced that he is 669 00:36:52,440 --> 00:36:54,880 Speaker 3: at war with the West, he is at war with 670 00:36:55,000 --> 00:36:58,640 Speaker 3: the US, he's at war with Europe. So I think 671 00:36:58,800 --> 00:37:02,480 Speaker 3: if he succeeds, I suspect the first thing as part 672 00:37:02,560 --> 00:37:06,200 Speaker 3: of that success, I think he would move into Moldova, 673 00:37:06,239 --> 00:37:09,480 Speaker 3: so he would have that done through the battlefield, if 674 00:37:09,520 --> 00:37:11,879 Speaker 3: you like. And at that point, I think there would 675 00:37:11,920 --> 00:37:17,359 Speaker 3: be a considerable pause as he reconsolidates militarily and so on. 676 00:37:17,680 --> 00:37:21,799 Speaker 3: I mean, Russia is now on has rejigged its economy 677 00:37:21,920 --> 00:37:24,640 Speaker 3: so that it is now a war economy. They're producing 678 00:37:24,680 --> 00:37:28,000 Speaker 3: three and a half million artillery shells a year now, 679 00:37:28,160 --> 00:37:31,960 Speaker 3: and that I am quite convinced would continue, if not 680 00:37:32,040 --> 00:37:35,800 Speaker 3: quite at the intensity that it is now. The budget 681 00:37:35,800 --> 00:37:38,320 Speaker 3: for twenty twenty four, I think it's close to forty 682 00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:41,640 Speaker 3: percent of the budget is defense, so it might not 683 00:37:41,680 --> 00:37:43,719 Speaker 3: be quite that level, but it would continue at a 684 00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:47,520 Speaker 3: high level, and he would re equip and get ready 685 00:37:47,880 --> 00:37:51,280 Speaker 3: in his view, because he's at war with the West. Remember, 686 00:37:51,360 --> 00:37:53,400 Speaker 3: and that now Finland is part of the West is 687 00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:56,839 Speaker 3: a joint NATO and Sweden, et cetera. The whole kind 688 00:37:56,840 --> 00:37:59,560 Speaker 3: of strategic situation in the Baltic Sea has changed. 689 00:38:00,080 --> 00:38:01,440 Speaker 2: So he would be. 690 00:38:01,320 --> 00:38:04,960 Speaker 3: Preparing for the worst that his generals can imagine can happen. 691 00:38:05,480 --> 00:38:07,560 Speaker 3: So they would be a build up of forces along 692 00:38:07,880 --> 00:38:10,439 Speaker 3: the Finnish border, and there would be a big build 693 00:38:10,520 --> 00:38:13,440 Speaker 3: up in the Baltics, I think. And what would happen, 694 00:38:13,680 --> 00:38:17,239 Speaker 3: you know, would he destabilize and make efforts to destabilize 695 00:38:17,239 --> 00:38:17,960 Speaker 3: the Baltic States? 696 00:38:18,040 --> 00:38:18,959 Speaker 2: Yes, I'm quite sure. 697 00:38:19,400 --> 00:38:22,120 Speaker 3: Would he invade I'm not so sure about that. He 698 00:38:22,160 --> 00:38:24,680 Speaker 3: probably would feel he doesn't need to. You know, when 699 00:38:24,680 --> 00:38:27,439 Speaker 3: you invade a NATO country, that's a pretty high stakes move. 700 00:38:28,040 --> 00:38:29,880 Speaker 1: Twenty twenty four will be in an election year in 701 00:38:29,880 --> 00:38:34,000 Speaker 1: the US. Do you see a material difference in how 702 00:38:34,040 --> 00:38:37,959 Speaker 1: the US responds to Putin in a Biden administration versus 703 00:38:38,000 --> 00:38:38,960 Speaker 1: a Trump administration. 704 00:38:40,000 --> 00:38:40,640 Speaker 2: Absolutely. 705 00:38:41,840 --> 00:38:43,920 Speaker 3: That would have been a different question if we were 706 00:38:43,960 --> 00:38:47,520 Speaker 3: seeing the first Trump term. You know, if we remember, 707 00:38:47,719 --> 00:38:50,960 Speaker 3: you could see Trump's instincts doesn't care about NATO. It's 708 00:38:51,000 --> 00:38:54,520 Speaker 3: quite friendly towards Putin, you know, it's totally disinterested in 709 00:38:54,719 --> 00:38:58,200 Speaker 3: the kind of strategic game in Europe. But you know, 710 00:38:58,239 --> 00:39:01,640 Speaker 3: he had people around him, generals and someone who he's 711 00:39:01,600 --> 00:39:04,480 Speaker 3: appointed to his own administration who had a much more 712 00:39:04,520 --> 00:39:08,480 Speaker 3: traditional view of US interests. If he comes to power 713 00:39:08,480 --> 00:39:10,560 Speaker 3: a second time, none of those people will be there. 714 00:39:10,920 --> 00:39:13,560 Speaker 3: Only loyalists will be there, and they will be pre 715 00:39:13,680 --> 00:39:16,840 Speaker 3: vetted to make sure that they will implement the policies 716 00:39:16,840 --> 00:39:20,080 Speaker 3: that he wants, and you know, those may be fairly erratic. 717 00:39:20,120 --> 00:39:23,759 Speaker 3: I'm not sure that Trump has a specific sative foreign policies, 718 00:39:24,160 --> 00:39:27,000 Speaker 3: but they will be there to do his bidding. 719 00:39:27,600 --> 00:39:30,240 Speaker 1: Mark. I always like to ask guests what they've learned 720 00:39:30,360 --> 00:39:33,400 Speaker 1: about topics that we're discussing, and as a veteran observer 721 00:39:33,560 --> 00:39:37,360 Speaker 1: of Russia and putin, what have you learned in recent 722 00:39:37,480 --> 00:39:41,600 Speaker 1: years about him and his country's aspirations in the world. 723 00:39:42,080 --> 00:39:45,040 Speaker 3: Well, I have to say, so, I became a journalist 724 00:39:45,080 --> 00:39:47,360 Speaker 3: because I wanted to go to Russia. I wanted to 725 00:39:47,360 --> 00:39:49,520 Speaker 3: go to the former Soviet Union. Didn't want to be 726 00:39:49,560 --> 00:39:51,800 Speaker 3: aspire a diplomat to do that, so I had to 727 00:39:51,840 --> 00:39:54,880 Speaker 3: be a journalist, and I'm glad I did so. I 728 00:39:55,000 --> 00:39:59,919 Speaker 3: obviously had a pretty deep interest and fascination for love 729 00:40:00,120 --> 00:40:02,919 Speaker 3: for Russia, lived there for seven years, had a wonderful time, 730 00:40:03,000 --> 00:40:07,120 Speaker 3: got married there, etc. The process since has been one 731 00:40:07,200 --> 00:40:12,200 Speaker 3: of gradual loss of hope and disappointment. And by this 732 00:40:12,360 --> 00:40:16,839 Speaker 3: point I see it, it's very difficult to imagine, even 733 00:40:16,880 --> 00:40:19,640 Speaker 3: post Putin a regime that's very different from the one 734 00:40:19,680 --> 00:40:22,399 Speaker 3: that we have now in Russia in my lifetime and 735 00:40:22,560 --> 00:40:24,719 Speaker 3: the turning from the West. I think it's going to 736 00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:27,239 Speaker 3: last a while. It's not permanent, but it's going to 737 00:40:27,320 --> 00:40:30,840 Speaker 3: last quite some time. It will become quite deep, I think. 738 00:40:31,400 --> 00:40:35,880 Speaker 3: And yeah, it's rather depressing, and unfortunately I do believe. 739 00:40:36,440 --> 00:40:38,120 Speaker 3: I don't think I would have said, you know, some 740 00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:42,640 Speaker 3: years ago. I do believe that this is an empire collapsing, 741 00:40:43,239 --> 00:40:47,680 Speaker 3: unhappy like all empires are, with its collapse and resisting it. 742 00:40:47,680 --> 00:40:50,800 Speaker 3: It's always ugly if you do not make it clear 743 00:40:50,800 --> 00:40:54,160 Speaker 3: to Russians and to Putin in particular now, but Russian's 744 00:40:54,160 --> 00:40:57,799 Speaker 3: more generally, and whoever succeeds him that it's over with 745 00:40:57,880 --> 00:41:01,040 Speaker 3: the empire. They need to learn to live in their 746 00:41:01,320 --> 00:41:06,439 Speaker 3: new skin. Then we will be fighting versions of this 747 00:41:07,000 --> 00:41:08,959 Speaker 3: conflict for quite some time to come. 748 00:41:09,600 --> 00:41:11,640 Speaker 1: We're out of time. Mark, Thanks for coming on today. 749 00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:15,560 Speaker 1: Thank you, Mark, Champion is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. You 750 00:41:15,600 --> 00:41:18,520 Speaker 1: can find his work online at the Bloomberg Opinion website 751 00:41:18,560 --> 00:41:21,080 Speaker 1: and on the Bloomberg terminal. You can also find him 752 00:41:21,120 --> 00:41:25,440 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Mark Champion One. Here at Crash Course, 753 00:41:25,480 --> 00:41:29,319 Speaker 1: we believe the collisions can be messy, impressive, challenging, surprising, 754 00:41:29,520 --> 00:41:32,960 Speaker 1: and always instructive. In today's Crash Course, I learned that 755 00:41:33,040 --> 00:41:36,640 Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin is much more entrenched and as much more 756 00:41:36,680 --> 00:41:41,400 Speaker 1: warewithal as a dictator, military force and swear of minds 757 00:41:41,440 --> 00:41:43,880 Speaker 1: within Russia than I thought at the beginning of the 758 00:41:43,920 --> 00:41:47,480 Speaker 1: conflict in Ukraine. What did you learn? We'd love to 759 00:41:47,480 --> 00:41:50,000 Speaker 1: hear from you. You can tweet at the Bloomberg Opinion 760 00:41:50,000 --> 00:41:53,920 Speaker 1: handle at Opinion or me at Tim O'Brien using the 761 00:41:53,920 --> 00:41:57,560 Speaker 1: hashtag Bloomberg Crash Course. You can also subscribe to our 762 00:41:57,640 --> 00:41:59,759 Speaker 1: show wherever you're listening right now and leave us a 763 00:41:59,760 --> 00:42:03,960 Speaker 1: reviv It helps more people find the show. This episode 764 00:42:04,040 --> 00:42:07,759 Speaker 1: was produced by Anna Maserakis, moses On Dam and Me. 765 00:42:08,440 --> 00:42:12,040 Speaker 1: Our supervising producer is Mangos Hendrickson, and we had editing 766 00:42:12,040 --> 00:42:15,920 Speaker 1: help from Saige Bauman, Jeff Grocott, Mike Nitze and Christine 767 00:42:15,960 --> 00:42:19,960 Speaker 1: Banden Bilart. Blake Maples does our sound engineering and our 768 00:42:20,000 --> 00:42:23,880 Speaker 1: original theme song was composed by Luis Gara. I'm Tim O'Brien. 769 00:42:24,280 --> 00:42:26,600 Speaker 1: We'll be back next week with another crash course.