WEBVTT - AnitaB.org CEO on Keeping Women Working During Pandemic 0:00:00.800 --> 0:00:04.040 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 0:00:04.040 --> 0:00:06.920 my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 0:00:06.960 --> 0:00:11.520 you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 0:00:11.560 --> 0:00:15.600 with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 0:00:15.600 --> 0:00:18.479 on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 0:00:18.480 --> 0:00:23.640 at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Now, I want to 0:00:23.680 --> 0:00:26.720 bring in Phil Orlando. You probably know him, the chief 0:00:26.720 --> 0:00:30.040 equity market strategist and head of client portfolio management that 0:00:30.120 --> 0:00:34.720 federated hermes Um. Phil, you have a couple of decades 0:00:34.760 --> 0:00:38.320 at least of experience in these markets, and I wonder 0:00:38.400 --> 0:00:40.240 what you think about where we are right now, because 0:00:40.280 --> 0:00:45.240 it feels frothy, it feels um toppy, but so many 0:00:45.360 --> 0:00:50.200 people are still incredibly bullish this equity market. Well, um, 0:00:50.200 --> 0:00:52.280 first of all, thank you very much for having me on. 0:00:52.520 --> 0:00:56.080 It's four decades of experience, so I've got plenty of 0:00:56.120 --> 0:00:59.320 gray here and I've seen obviously more than a couple 0:00:59.320 --> 0:01:04.160 of cycles. Um. Interesting question, because we were down about 0:01:04.280 --> 0:01:08.680 four percent or so from the middle of February into 0:01:09.040 --> 0:01:12.720 I guess it was last Friday, and the concern was 0:01:12.800 --> 0:01:20.720 that the federal reserves, accommodative policies were leading to inflationary pressures. Uh. 0:01:20.760 --> 0:01:24.600 It really hasn't manifested itself in the core CPI and PC, 0:01:25.440 --> 0:01:28.800 but it's absolutely manifested itself in a lot of the 0:01:28.920 --> 0:01:33.240 nominal metrics. We look at agricultural commodities like corn, wheat 0:01:33.319 --> 0:01:38.520 and soybeans, crude oil, copper, lumber, these prices have gone 0:01:38.640 --> 0:01:42.600 vertical over the last you know, eight or nine months 0:01:42.760 --> 0:01:46.160 as we've come out of you know, the deepest recession 0:01:46.200 --> 0:01:49.520 in history. And and it's it's our feeling. And I 0:01:49.560 --> 0:01:52.480 think a lot of folks believe that over time this 0:01:52.560 --> 0:01:55.320 will filter into the core numbers, and they are in 0:01:55.360 --> 0:01:58.400 fact starting to move up. So I think investors took 0:01:58.520 --> 0:02:01.600 you know, four percent of chips off the table over 0:02:01.640 --> 0:02:04.480 the last fortnight or so. And then the question was 0:02:04.520 --> 0:02:06.960 what's going to happen next? Well, the numbers, the data 0:02:07.920 --> 0:02:10.200 is coming in pretty good. And we just saw the 0:02:10.240 --> 0:02:13.960 I s M number for February, UH, strongest number in 0:02:14.080 --> 0:02:18.920 three years. UH. Last week, the personal income and spending 0:02:19.000 --> 0:02:22.600 numbers were very strong. The adorable goods and cap goods 0:02:22.720 --> 0:02:27.200 numbers were very strong. So that the the recession in 0:02:27.360 --> 0:02:31.800 our mind ended last mayor June that that we're in 0:02:31.880 --> 0:02:36.160 this powerful recovery that if anything, is going to be 0:02:36.320 --> 0:02:41.360 enhanced with the sugar high associated with the next iteration 0:02:41.400 --> 0:02:44.640 of fiscal stimulus that that President Biden is looking to 0:02:45.200 --> 0:02:47.839 put on top of this. So as I look out 0:02:47.880 --> 0:02:50.760 over the balance of this year, we think that we're 0:02:50.880 --> 0:02:53.840 we're you know, GDP is probably going to be you know, 0:02:53.960 --> 0:03:00.560 five or six percent or perhaps higher. Sp things pretty good, 0:03:00.800 --> 0:03:05.040 I mean, Bloomberg Bloomberg Intelligence. UM says, I think seven 0:03:05.080 --> 0:03:08.040 point four percent in Q four that's what annual GDP 0:03:08.200 --> 0:03:11.799 is gonna look like. UM, the highest since Night three. 0:03:11.880 --> 0:03:14.560 And the concern, of course, Phil, is that this brings 0:03:14.600 --> 0:03:16.560 with it the inflation that we're starting to see you 0:03:16.600 --> 0:03:19.959 point out in commodities, and that brings UH and about 0:03:20.040 --> 0:03:23.200 face by central banks by the Fed to raise rates. 0:03:23.240 --> 0:03:27.720 And our most read story of the day, UM quotes 0:03:27.760 --> 0:03:31.480 a guy called Sam Cecilia who runs a pension fund 0:03:31.520 --> 0:03:34.440 in Melbourne, Australia. He says that's wrong. He says in 0:03:34.560 --> 0:03:37.760 deflationary forces are bigger in his opinion, and he says 0:03:37.760 --> 0:03:40.280 in five to ten years time, people are gonna look 0:03:40.280 --> 0:03:42.320 back and say we should have bought stocks at twenty 0:03:42.320 --> 0:03:45.000 times earnings. What do you think, Well, I agree that 0:03:45.040 --> 0:03:47.640 we should have bought stocks at twenty times earnings. Last 0:03:47.680 --> 0:03:51.760 March was an awesome by point. You've got treasury yields 0:03:51.760 --> 0:03:54.840 which are still very low. I'm a big seed model guy, 0:03:55.160 --> 0:03:58.080 So the reality is that you should be willing to 0:03:58.200 --> 0:04:02.080 pay twenty to twenty five times earnings given how low 0:04:02.120 --> 0:04:06.160 interest rates are. But but you're the gentleman that you're 0:04:06.200 --> 0:04:09.280 just quoting made a very interesting point that that I 0:04:09.320 --> 0:04:12.280 would like to circle back to. Even though you've got 0:04:12.360 --> 0:04:17.760 these nascent nominal inflation concerns bubbling, you know, out there 0:04:17.760 --> 0:04:21.279 on the horizon, the Federal Reserve is not going to 0:04:21.360 --> 0:04:24.080 address that at any point over the course of this 0:04:24.200 --> 0:04:27.000 calendar year. And and for a reason for that, in 0:04:27.040 --> 0:04:30.880 our view, is just a matter of practicality. J. Powell's 0:04:31.040 --> 0:04:36.440 term as the Federal Reserve chairman expires January of next year, 0:04:36.920 --> 0:04:39.560 and he would very much, in my opinion, like to 0:04:39.560 --> 0:04:43.200 get reappointed. There is zero chance. But he's going to 0:04:43.320 --> 0:04:46.560 scale back quee or begin to come off a zero 0:04:46.640 --> 0:04:51.840 bound funds rate, which potentially would would harm his chances 0:04:51.920 --> 0:04:56.680 of being reappointed by by President Biden. So so this issue. 0:04:56.920 --> 0:04:58.839 Are we're gonna scale back queie and we're gonna start 0:04:58.839 --> 0:05:01.120 to raise interest rates? Might be a twenty two or 0:05:01.240 --> 0:05:04.559 twenty three issue, but it's certainly not a twenty one issue. 0:05:05.400 --> 0:05:08.560 Al Right, Phil, you have been bullish for a long time. 0:05:08.640 --> 0:05:11.800 You have been right for a long time. What's your 0:05:11.800 --> 0:05:17.440 biggest concern in the marketplace here for your bullish call? Well, uh, 0:05:17.480 --> 0:05:19.919 you know, one of the one of the key reasons 0:05:19.960 --> 0:05:22.640 for a bullishness is the fact that we thought we 0:05:22.720 --> 0:05:26.520 would get a series of vaccines that would be efficacious, 0:05:26.560 --> 0:05:29.760 and that the rollout, you know, at roughly a million 0:05:29.800 --> 0:05:33.440 a day, would get us to critical mass and herd 0:05:33.480 --> 0:05:36.000 immunity by the middle of this year. We thought that 0:05:36.080 --> 0:05:38.000 by the time we got to the fourth of July 0:05:38.600 --> 0:05:41.320 Independence Day, we'd be on the other side of this 0:05:41.480 --> 0:05:44.520 thing and could start to begin to normalize the economy. 0:05:44.640 --> 0:05:48.640 But suppose that's wrong, all right, Supposed we stumble on 0:05:48.760 --> 0:05:52.640 the rollout, Suppose these variances that we're seeing out of 0:05:52.720 --> 0:05:57.120 South Africa or the UK render less efficacy with the 0:05:57.240 --> 0:05:59.680 with the vaccines that are out there, and and then 0:05:59.680 --> 0:06:04.400 that throws our thesis into uh into disarray. So we'd 0:06:04.400 --> 0:06:06.479 like to believe that we're on the right path here. 0:06:06.760 --> 0:06:10.960 But but certainly the healthcare related issues are the things 0:06:11.000 --> 0:06:14.440 that probably keep the awakeed night more than anything. Hey, Phili, 0:06:14.480 --> 0:06:16.480 thank you so much for joining us. We appreciate it. 0:06:16.520 --> 0:06:19.880 As always again, you've been consistently bullish UH, and you've 0:06:19.920 --> 0:06:23.200 been consistently right, and the folks that invested Federator Hermes 0:06:23.600 --> 0:06:26.360 reaping the benefits. The Phil Phil Orlando, chief equity market 0:06:26.400 --> 0:06:30.560 strategist and head of Client Portfolio manager Management at Federated 0:06:30.600 --> 0:06:34.320 Hermes based in Pittsburgh, p A. When you go to Pittsburgh, 0:06:34.360 --> 0:06:36.279 the first stop as to sell side analysts, you've got 0:06:36.400 --> 0:06:38.800 to stop in and see the folks that Federated. They're 0:06:38.839 --> 0:06:42.320 big across asset classes. They see market trends on a 0:06:42.320 --> 0:06:49.520 global scale, and we appreciate having them come on. I 0:06:49.600 --> 0:06:55.320 want to continue our focus right now on UH. On 0:06:55.360 --> 0:07:00.040 what's going on UM from a Bloomberg opinion perspective, in 0:07:00.160 --> 0:07:05.720 terms of President Biden's UM UH sort of melding of 0:07:05.760 --> 0:07:10.440 the polarized America. You know from here in Germany, UM, 0:07:10.480 --> 0:07:15.200 it seems pretty bad and it didn't seem like we'd 0:07:15.200 --> 0:07:19.960 had a real improvement UM. After the after the inauguration. 0:07:20.040 --> 0:07:23.360 Let's bring in Jonathan Bernstein, who's a politics columns to 0:07:23.400 --> 0:07:26.480 talk about what's going on in terms of the healing 0:07:26.560 --> 0:07:29.880 of America. Jonathan, how how do you see, um, you know, 0:07:29.920 --> 0:07:33.760 the state of US health right now? Well? Yeah, I 0:07:34.520 --> 0:07:38.160 have a situation where the out party, the Republican Party, 0:07:38.520 --> 0:07:42.400 is not accepting a lot of people in the republic wary, 0:07:42.520 --> 0:07:45.440 not accepting the results of the election, and that the 0:07:45.520 --> 0:07:50.280 former president Donald Trump is still you know, claiming without 0:07:50.320 --> 0:07:53.080 any evidence that the election was stolen. So that's a 0:07:53.520 --> 0:07:56.320 you know, that's something that we have not had for 0:07:56.400 --> 0:07:58.560 a long time, and it's dangerous, you know, the the 0:07:58.600 --> 0:08:03.040 idea of a democracy requiring past that at this point. 0:08:03.080 --> 0:08:05.080 I mean, I know that was the case, and there 0:08:05.160 --> 0:08:10.280 was this horrible act of violence, um insurrection at Congress, 0:08:10.360 --> 0:08:13.160 but I really haven't heard many people mention it in 0:08:13.200 --> 0:08:15.560 the last couple of weeks. Aren't we have we moved 0:08:15.600 --> 0:08:18.800 on from that point? Well, you weren't listening them to 0:08:19.120 --> 0:08:25.040 the big conservative meeting over the weekend the Spas where 0:08:25.040 --> 0:08:27.960 where Donald Trump gave a speech, and where most of 0:08:28.000 --> 0:08:31.640 the speeches, you know, kept talking about this mythical election 0:08:31.720 --> 0:08:33.840 fraud and all that kind of thing. So, you know, 0:08:33.960 --> 0:08:38.480 and you need the party for democracy to work, you 0:08:38.520 --> 0:08:41.200 need both parties to accept that elections happen and the 0:08:41.200 --> 0:08:44.840 winner takes office and the loser loses. And you know, 0:08:45.240 --> 0:08:47.720 in the long term, as we're looking at, you know, 0:08:47.760 --> 0:08:50.200 the health of American democracy, it's a real big deal 0:08:50.600 --> 0:08:54.280 that Republicans, a big chunk of Republicans are not accepting 0:08:54.600 --> 0:08:57.320 election results. Now, you know, day to day, does that 0:08:57.400 --> 0:09:03.000 matter on Capitol Hill? Well, you know, Joe Biden is president. Um, 0:09:03.040 --> 0:09:05.920 but in terms of the sort of health of American democracy, 0:09:06.080 --> 0:09:09.680 that's a huge problem going forward, Jonathan. Are there any 0:09:09.760 --> 0:09:15.560 undecided voters in America anymore? Yes, but there sure are 0:09:15.559 --> 0:09:18.320 a lot fewer, you know. Um, if you look at, 0:09:18.640 --> 0:09:22.480 for example, Joe Biden's approval ratings and disapproval ratings UM. 0:09:22.559 --> 0:09:26.360 So far, his approval ratings are basically normal for recent presidents. 0:09:26.360 --> 0:09:31.760 He's around fifty approval UM. That's much better than Trump 0:09:31.840 --> 0:09:36.040 was originally. Uh, it's a little behind where Barack Obama was. 0:09:36.080 --> 0:09:39.679 He was unusually popular. But the other presidents, from saying 0:09:39.760 --> 0:09:42.520 Nixon on it's it's basically they were all in the 0:09:42.640 --> 0:09:45.880 mid fifties give or take at this point. But his 0:09:46.000 --> 0:09:51.480 disapproval rating UM is thirty eight percent, which is other 0:09:51.559 --> 0:09:54.920 than Trump would have been the record high. And you know, 0:09:55.320 --> 0:09:58.800 if you look back in the mid century, UM, mid 0:09:58.800 --> 0:10:02.520 twentieth century presidents beginning of the polar era, most of 0:10:02.559 --> 0:10:06.480 them started off with disapproval ratings under ten percent. Have 0:10:06.600 --> 0:10:11.320 all of them under ten percent, Eisenhower, Kennedy, Um, you know, 0:10:11.360 --> 0:10:16.000 in that era, Lennon Johnson, they were under ten percent disapproval. 0:10:16.160 --> 0:10:20.000 When new presidents came in, most people who didn't you know, 0:10:20.000 --> 0:10:22.439 who weren't their supporters, said let's give him a chance. 0:10:22.720 --> 0:10:26.520 We don't have an opinion yet about how they're doing nowadays. 0:10:26.880 --> 0:10:31.120 That's not true. Um. All the recent presidents have started 0:10:31.120 --> 0:10:34.880 with higher disapproval ratings. But Biden's at you know, thirty 0:10:34.880 --> 0:10:41.120 eight percent now is much higher than where Reagan or 0:10:41.320 --> 0:10:45.560 Quarter or the Bushes were early on. I'm tempted to think, 0:10:45.720 --> 0:10:51.640 you know, we just had this obviously incredible period of partisanship. UM. 0:10:52.080 --> 0:10:57.320 The former president Donald Trump as well as his opponent, UM, 0:10:57.440 --> 0:11:03.280 Hillary Clinton, unbelievable polar rising figures, both very well, I guess, 0:11:03.440 --> 0:11:06.160 kind of partisan. Although I don't really think of Trump, 0:11:06.160 --> 0:11:07.560 I wouldn't have thought of him at the time as 0:11:07.559 --> 0:11:10.800 a traditional Republican. But it's tempting to think of that 0:11:10.960 --> 0:11:14.079 that that happened because of those two are because of Trump. 0:11:14.440 --> 0:11:17.520 But um, you see it happening everywhere, Jonathan. Um. You 0:11:17.559 --> 0:11:21.960 see this polarization in the UK around Brexit, you see 0:11:21.960 --> 0:11:26.240 it in Eastern Europe around these authoritarian leaders. I mean, 0:11:26.640 --> 0:11:29.520 is this a global problem because of I'm tempted to 0:11:29.559 --> 0:11:34.560 say Facebook, rather than a problem of America because of Trump. Well, 0:11:34.880 --> 0:11:38.160 I would say in the United States it goes back 0:11:38.200 --> 0:11:40.400 a lot earlier than Trump. So you know, if you 0:11:40.440 --> 0:11:45.520 look at UM during the Clinton administration and all, you 0:11:45.600 --> 0:11:50.360 have this sort of strong um, especially on the Republican 0:11:50.400 --> 0:11:52.720 side of this refusal to accept that, oh yeah, we 0:11:52.840 --> 0:11:57.720 lost an election, and so Republicans, you know, what is there? 0:11:57.720 --> 0:12:01.240 What is their legislative program? It's to get more difficult 0:12:01.240 --> 0:12:04.120 for Democrats to vote and for them to set up 0:12:04.120 --> 0:12:10.200 elections to help um their own party. Um, it's harder 0:12:10.240 --> 0:12:12.520 to say globally whether it's all the same phenomenon. I'm 0:12:12.559 --> 0:12:14.600 just saying, you see it happening everywhere, so it can't 0:12:14.640 --> 0:12:17.000 be just an American thing, right, or do you blame 0:12:17.360 --> 0:12:20.760 the Republican Party for you know, it's hard to tell 0:12:20.880 --> 0:12:24.679 whether that's whether there's something you know of the modern era, 0:12:24.720 --> 0:12:27.920 whether it's communications or something else that makes it more likely. UM. 0:12:27.960 --> 0:12:32.360 You know, traditionally the United States had a very weak 0:12:32.480 --> 0:12:36.520 parties and didn't have strong partisanship. That changed in the 0:12:36.600 --> 0:12:41.760 nineteen nineties, and so it's it's a more recent phenomenon 0:12:41.800 --> 0:12:44.800 in the United States, whereas in some place like Britain 0:12:45.080 --> 0:12:48.560 you always had sort of strong you didn't have that 0:12:48.720 --> 0:12:53.640 kind of weak parties. UM, week non ideological parties the 0:12:53.720 --> 0:12:58.680 United States used to have. All Right, So you're coming 0:12:58.720 --> 0:13:01.640 out of the Sea Pack UH gathering over the weekend. 0:13:02.080 --> 0:13:05.839 President Trump came away as the leading contender via poll. 0:13:07.360 --> 0:13:11.040 Is this still Trump's party going forward? You know, it's 0:13:11.080 --> 0:13:15.000 hard to tell exactly what will happen. UM. You can't 0:13:15.040 --> 0:13:17.880 really predict much off of the Sea pack straw polls. 0:13:17.920 --> 0:13:21.439 They've been wrong many many times before. UM. In a sense, 0:13:22.320 --> 0:13:27.760 Republicans still really like Trump, but whether they prefer Trump 0:13:27.800 --> 0:13:30.280 to other candidates is a little unclear. A lot of 0:13:30.280 --> 0:13:33.960 the seepack UM participants said, well, we don't act. About 0:13:33.960 --> 0:13:35.720 a third of them said, well, we don't really want 0:13:35.760 --> 0:13:38.760 him to run again. Um, what what I would say 0:13:38.800 --> 0:13:42.600 is that the attitudes of the party, the anti democratic, 0:13:42.960 --> 0:13:48.760 um maybe authoritarian strain of the Republican Party which preceded Trump, 0:13:49.000 --> 0:13:51.440 got stronger as a result of Trump and is very 0:13:51.440 --> 0:13:54.120 strong today. So even if it's not Trump, it's harder 0:13:54.160 --> 0:13:57.800 to see somebody like uh, you know, John McCain or 0:13:57.800 --> 0:14:01.360 Mitt Romney becoming the nominee that time, although we're still 0:14:01.400 --> 0:14:04.120 three years away, so you know, a long time that 0:14:04.200 --> 0:14:07.679 things could change. Hey, Jonathan, thanks so much for joining us. 0:14:07.679 --> 0:14:11.920 We appreciate it as always. Jonathan Bernstein, Bloomberg News Opinion Calumnists. Uh, 0:14:12.200 --> 0:14:14.120 just giving us the latest lay of the land of 0:14:14.160 --> 0:14:17.320 the political estaplishment. But again, it'll be interesting to see 0:14:17.320 --> 0:14:20.680 the data that Jonathan cited in his column shows that 0:14:20.800 --> 0:14:23.280 the you know, the polling gate we look at the 0:14:23.320 --> 0:14:27.240 favorables and the unfavorables, really you know, crystallizing what we 0:14:27.280 --> 0:14:30.120 all kind of know, which is the polarization. The political 0:14:30.120 --> 0:14:35.160 polarization in this country appears as strong as it's ever been. 0:14:35.240 --> 0:14:37.520 And as Johnasons suggested about to see how it plays 0:14:37.520 --> 0:14:40.080 out over the next um, you know, four years until 0:14:40.080 --> 0:14:43.720 we get to the next presidential election cycle. But fascinated 0:14:43.800 --> 0:14:51.280 here Jonathan's opinions. I want to get to the blowout 0:14:51.360 --> 0:14:54.360 I s M numbers that we saw across the Bloomberg today. 0:14:54.880 --> 0:14:56.920 You can, well, if you're in the US, just type 0:14:56.960 --> 0:14:59.120 ECO go. I'll give you a hint. Anywhere else in 0:14:59.120 --> 0:15:01.440 the world, if you type w E C O week 0:15:01.520 --> 0:15:04.120 O go, you can pick from an assortment of really 0:15:04.120 --> 0:15:07.360 fun flags and if you click on it, yeah yeah, 0:15:07.400 --> 0:15:10.680 week I'll go. Click on the American flag obviously the 0:15:10.680 --> 0:15:13.720 stars and stripes there, and you can see UM I 0:15:14.120 --> 0:15:18.400 s M coming out new orders, sixty four point eight 0:15:19.080 --> 0:15:22.240 prices paid eighty six manufacturing, which is the number we 0:15:22.280 --> 0:15:25.200 look the most closely at sixty eight. The survey was 0:15:25.240 --> 0:15:28.280 for fifty eight point nine, so a blowout number. Let's 0:15:28.280 --> 0:15:32.440 bring in Timothy Furies, the chairman of the Manufacturing Business 0:15:32.440 --> 0:15:35.800 Survey um AT I s M. Thanks so much for 0:15:35.880 --> 0:15:40.320 joining us. Why were these numbers so strong? What happened? Yeah, 0:15:40.360 --> 0:15:43.200 thanks pauling that. So this is our nine straight month 0:15:43.400 --> 0:15:46.560 manufacting expansion, which is leading the you As economy out 0:15:46.560 --> 0:15:49.960 of the post pandemic decline. So we had five of 0:15:50.080 --> 0:15:53.320 six industry sectors, which are our biggest industry sectors, recording 0:15:53.720 --> 0:15:56.920 indexes on their own over sixt So that's the primary 0:15:57.120 --> 0:15:59.920 point here is that we had strong industry sectors really 0:16:00.000 --> 0:16:03.000 eating us out this month, really good order levels, as 0:16:03.040 --> 0:16:06.160 you mentioned, all the supporting sub indexes that support the 0:16:06.160 --> 0:16:09.680 new order number were very strong. Backlog being notable at 0:16:09.680 --> 0:16:13.000 sixty four highest number and about fifteen years. We had 0:16:13.120 --> 0:16:16.360 really good production output with the employment growing also, which 0:16:16.400 --> 0:16:19.200 is a good sign. We've had some difficulty unemployment side 0:16:19.240 --> 0:16:21.080 for a couple of months, and we continued to have 0:16:21.200 --> 0:16:23.840 headwinds on the input side with the fire deliveries and 0:16:23.920 --> 0:16:27.280 the inventories, so and that probably won't get resolved until 0:16:27.320 --> 0:16:30.960 the vaccine is widespread deployed. So really good month exceeded 0:16:30.960 --> 0:16:33.960 my exportations. As you mentioned, the economists we're thinking at 0:16:33.960 --> 0:16:38.880 the eight point nine really strong number. All right, So yeah, Tim, 0:16:38.960 --> 0:16:41.800 just great numbers. And is you know you've explained to 0:16:41.840 --> 0:16:44.640 us in months past it's really been the manufacturing sector 0:16:44.720 --> 0:16:47.160 that's leading this economy out of you know, those that 0:16:47.280 --> 0:16:50.840 shock we experienced early part of last year. Is there 0:16:50.880 --> 0:16:55.200 a risk here that the price for input prices could 0:16:55.720 --> 0:16:59.680 be problematic with some of these manufacturers maybe inflationary. Well, 0:16:59.720 --> 0:17:01.760 it's point I mean, it could slow things, but there's 0:17:01.760 --> 0:17:04.040 no signs of it at this point. On the general 0:17:04.080 --> 0:17:07.240 comments side, I'm receiving no comments that they're not able 0:17:07.280 --> 0:17:10.040 to push prices through their customers are normally. I would 0:17:10.040 --> 0:17:11.920 start to get that if they get headwinds. I think 0:17:11.920 --> 0:17:14.240 we're probably a couple of months away from that. You know, 0:17:14.680 --> 0:17:18.119 standard costs were set going into January. Variants are now 0:17:18.200 --> 0:17:21.639 being seen at the company cost level. Will be pressure 0:17:21.680 --> 0:17:23.520 on the sales guys to try to push those prices 0:17:23.520 --> 0:17:26.680 increases through. We'll see what happens, but at this point, 0:17:26.960 --> 0:17:28.840 you know, looks really strong. I don't see anything that's 0:17:28.840 --> 0:17:31.840 gonna stop us continuing to expand at some pretty high levels. 0:17:32.280 --> 0:17:37.040 What do you think about the UM commodity inflation that 0:17:37.080 --> 0:17:39.439 we've seen. I mean, you're in a unique position to 0:17:39.520 --> 0:17:43.119 answer this question because you've had management roles at U, 0:17:43.160 --> 0:17:47.000 TEX and UM. You were the chief of curement officer 0:17:47.040 --> 0:17:50.040 for Tousan Trump. So what does this mean to you? 0:17:50.119 --> 0:17:53.800 The jump in metals price, not just metals, but raw materials, 0:17:53.880 --> 0:17:58.280 soft eggs, I mean everything. Yeah, the biggest foundations here 0:17:58.280 --> 0:18:01.679 are basic chemicals, steal aluminium and plastic pellets. I mean 0:18:01.720 --> 0:18:04.480 that that tends to get into almost any manufactured product. 0:18:04.960 --> 0:18:07.159 And as a as a buyer, boy, I'm struggling like 0:18:07.200 --> 0:18:10.359 crazy right now because I'm seeing price increases. But generally 0:18:10.359 --> 0:18:12.560 what happens when you have input price growth, you also 0:18:12.600 --> 0:18:16.359 have margin expansion and the revenue expansion at the company level. 0:18:16.520 --> 0:18:18.840 So it may not be good for supply people, but 0:18:18.840 --> 0:18:20.840 it's generally good for the economy. I mean, I like 0:18:20.920 --> 0:18:23.800 to see prices go up when I'm sitting here, you know, 0:18:23.840 --> 0:18:26.320 looking at the analysis for the manufacturing side, but I 0:18:26.320 --> 0:18:28.760 don't see it's flowing anything yet anyway. And I think 0:18:29.040 --> 0:18:31.359 when we did our economic forecast where twenty one we 0:18:31.440 --> 0:18:34.359 predicted that we see about a three growth and input 0:18:34.400 --> 0:18:37.600 costs and we're probably on track to that. To you know, 0:18:37.960 --> 0:18:40.520 one topic that we don't talk that much about anymore, 0:18:40.560 --> 0:18:43.199 which was topic A for much of last year, it's 0:18:43.240 --> 0:18:48.360 just kind of trade tensions, supply chain disruptions, tariffs. Are 0:18:48.359 --> 0:18:50.880 the folks you talk to in the manufacturing in the heartland, 0:18:51.000 --> 0:18:54.760 what are they saying about China and just broader supply 0:18:55.000 --> 0:18:58.720 chain issues. Well, right now it's about getting product that 0:18:58.760 --> 0:19:00.879 the porch are still jammed up, so they've been jammed 0:19:00.960 --> 0:19:02.800 up up until the lunar New Year. We thought they 0:19:02.880 --> 0:19:06.000 might relax in the next few weeks, but most likely 0:19:06.040 --> 0:19:08.240 that's going to continue to be a problem right into 0:19:08.280 --> 0:19:13.040 the summertime. Transportation issues are really an extreme issue, primarily 0:19:13.119 --> 0:19:15.480 because we have so many part shortages that people are 0:19:15.520 --> 0:19:19.719 having to shift happen the trucks. I think of our 0:19:19.720 --> 0:19:24.199 supplier delivery comments were transportation related, so and that's been 0:19:24.240 --> 0:19:27.440 growing a month a month the prior month, prior months 0:19:27.480 --> 0:19:30.199 from that. So there's a lot of disconnections here in 0:19:30.200 --> 0:19:33.200 the supply chain. Manufacturing people know how to manage that. 0:19:33.320 --> 0:19:36.399 They have their handsful right now, probably more so than 0:19:36.440 --> 0:19:40.760 any recent economic growth that I can recall. But we're 0:19:40.760 --> 0:19:42.720 making good gains. I think the biggest issue here is 0:19:42.720 --> 0:19:46.320 really labor at the supplier facilities handless companies, and we 0:19:46.320 --> 0:19:49.200 saw some movement here and in the February time front. 0:19:49.960 --> 0:19:51.879 Hey Tim, thanks so much for joining us again. We 0:19:51.920 --> 0:19:54.800 always appreciate getting these monthly updates. Temp Fury, chairman of 0:19:54.840 --> 0:19:58.280 the Manufacturing Business Survey, the Institute for Supply Managements, and 0:19:58.440 --> 0:20:02.359 really blowouts wrong numbers coming out of Industrial America and 0:20:02.440 --> 0:20:05.240 is to mention we've had some pretty consistent performance there, 0:20:05.280 --> 0:20:07.879 and again that's a thirty percent of the economy. Uh 0:20:07.880 --> 0:20:11.159 so you flipped to the other sevent that services. That's folks, 0:20:11.240 --> 0:20:13.679 that's getting people back to work in a lot of 0:20:13.680 --> 0:20:16.520 those leisure industries. The expectation is that's part of that 0:20:16.600 --> 0:20:20.760 whole reopening trade that we're all looking forward to later 0:20:20.800 --> 0:20:28.040 this year. Now, I want to talk about UM because 0:20:28.200 --> 0:20:31.880 it is International Women's Day coming up. I think it's 0:20:31.880 --> 0:20:35.440 on the on the eighth, and because UM we're celebrating 0:20:35.760 --> 0:20:38.480 women I think I believe all month here on Bloomberg Radio. 0:20:38.480 --> 0:20:41.320 Want to bring in Brenda Darden Wilkerson. She's president and 0:20:41.400 --> 0:20:46.280 CEO of anita be dot org, which UM, I guess 0:20:47.440 --> 0:20:51.760 strives to drive diversity, UM equality and inclusion across the 0:20:51.800 --> 0:20:55.280 tech industry. So tell us a little bit Brenda. Well, 0:20:55.320 --> 0:20:57.879 first of all, welcome to the program. Thanks thanks for 0:20:57.960 --> 0:21:00.280 joining us. Tell us a little bit about what Need 0:21:00.280 --> 0:21:04.639 to Be does and also why the tech industry. I 0:21:04.760 --> 0:21:07.720 was wondered this, why is it so sort of notoriously 0:21:07.880 --> 0:21:14.119 bad for gender issues? Well, thanks so much for having 0:21:14.160 --> 0:21:17.480 me again. Um So why the tech industry? Well, first 0:21:17.520 --> 0:21:20.080 of all, the tech industry, we have to admit touches 0:21:20.400 --> 0:21:24.439 every aspect of every life globally. And that's why we 0:21:24.520 --> 0:21:27.760 exist to work within the ecosystem to make sure that 0:21:27.840 --> 0:21:30.720 the table where tech is created is as the birth 0:21:31.000 --> 0:21:33.639 as the people that it served. Now, why is it 0:21:33.720 --> 0:21:38.600 so notoriously in the status and it's it's all about history. 0:21:38.640 --> 0:21:42.359 It's all about pattern matching. Um. The history of tech 0:21:42.480 --> 0:21:46.320 started off largely with women and men, but there was 0:21:46.359 --> 0:21:51.160 this point in time when the narrative switched to only 0:21:51.240 --> 0:21:53.680 focus on what the men have done and not on 0:21:53.720 --> 0:21:55.920 what the women have done. And what we've been trying 0:21:55.920 --> 0:21:59.120 to work against is that very narrative from the beginning. 0:21:59.160 --> 0:22:01.440 And so that's what we do. You know, our our 0:22:01.960 --> 0:22:05.639 organization exists to make sure that the plate the people 0:22:05.760 --> 0:22:10.080 who create tech mirror the societies for whom they created. 0:22:11.200 --> 0:22:13.960 Has there been progress? What has been the progress say 0:22:14.000 --> 0:22:16.080 over the last five years brenda as relates to the 0:22:16.080 --> 0:22:20.080 tech industry, So yes, there's progress. You know, we are 0:22:20.160 --> 0:22:24.639 definitely glass testol around this this whole opportunity. Now. Of course, 0:22:25.240 --> 0:22:29.200 our namesake, Anita Board, who started the organization some thirty 0:22:29.280 --> 0:22:33.199 years ago, had a goal which was fifty fifty. We 0:22:33.280 --> 0:22:37.159 obviously didn't make that and we actually actually did a 0:22:37.160 --> 0:22:40.640 little backsliding before we've gone forward. But yes, there are 0:22:40.640 --> 0:22:43.960 some strides being made. We have a Top Companies program, 0:22:43.960 --> 0:22:46.880 which is the only program that focuses on the equity 0:22:47.720 --> 0:22:51.200 around women in tech in great companies who are doing 0:22:51.240 --> 0:22:54.040 that work. And what we've seen is those companies who 0:22:54.080 --> 0:22:55.840 are willing to put in the work, who are willing 0:22:55.880 --> 0:22:58.200 to do those things that we know work. I mean, 0:22:58.240 --> 0:23:00.800 we don't have to guess, we know what works. UM 0:23:00.920 --> 0:23:03.280 saw a great strides last year. We saw them move 0:23:03.680 --> 0:23:07.800 five percentage points versus the overall industry that normally hovers 0:23:07.840 --> 0:23:11.200 around just less than a percentage point. You know, I 0:23:11.240 --> 0:23:14.240 wonder how much the problem is in the link to 0:23:14.440 --> 0:23:18.160 finance in terms of successes Brenda, because you know, I've 0:23:18.160 --> 0:23:20.440 always thought of the tech industry as one where anyone, 0:23:20.720 --> 0:23:23.040 no matter what you look like or who you are, 0:23:23.160 --> 0:23:26.160 you can get into it because you're doing it usually 0:23:26.160 --> 0:23:29.760 from a computer and your mom's basement, right, so, um, 0:23:29.840 --> 0:23:32.320 no one sees you. But then, of course, when you 0:23:32.400 --> 0:23:34.720 come up with this idea, even if it's only with 0:23:34.760 --> 0:23:36.840 a couple of friends in the garage, you need some 0:23:37.320 --> 0:23:40.440 Wall Street banker guys to back you before you can grow. 0:23:40.480 --> 0:23:46.359 It is that why you've seen, uh, this inequality some 0:23:46.440 --> 0:23:49.600 of it, right, it's part of it. Yes, there's this thing, 0:23:49.720 --> 0:23:53.280