WEBVTT - Baier: Trump is benefiting from flexibility on issues

0:00:02.440 --> 0:00:05.840
<v Speaker 1>Global business news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg

0:00:05.880 --> 0:00:08.920
<v Speaker 1>dot com, the Radio plus mobile LAP and on your radio.

0:00:09.240 --> 0:00:13.080
<v Speaker 1>This is a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm Karin Moscow.

0:00:13.119 --> 0:00:15.640
<v Speaker 1>This updates brought to you by cbo E VIX Options

0:00:15.640 --> 0:00:18.960
<v Speaker 1>and Futures. Volatility can be harnessed with cbo E VIX

0:00:19.040 --> 0:00:22.600
<v Speaker 1>Options and futures. See disclosures and learn more at cbo

0:00:22.640 --> 0:00:26.520
<v Speaker 1>E dot com. Slash Powerful Outcomes vix u s Dot

0:00:26.560 --> 0:00:29.480
<v Speaker 1>Index futures are higher and indication stocks will trim their

0:00:29.520 --> 0:00:33.360
<v Speaker 1>first weekly drop in four, mirroring a global equity rally

0:00:33.440 --> 0:00:36.640
<v Speaker 1>as investors reassess stimulus measures in Europe. We check the

0:00:36.680 --> 0:00:39.800
<v Speaker 1>markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg

0:00:40.159 --> 0:00:43.560
<v Speaker 1>SNP EVENI futures of seventeen points, DOWI Mini futures of

0:00:43.640 --> 0:00:47.560
<v Speaker 1>a hundred thirty NASADAC EUNY futures up forty four Dacks

0:00:47.600 --> 0:00:50.839
<v Speaker 1>in Germany's up three point one percent, CAT in Paris

0:00:50.840 --> 0:00:52.680
<v Speaker 1>of three percent, and the f T one dred of

0:00:52.840 --> 0:00:55.760
<v Speaker 1>one point six percent. Ten Your treasury up one thirty

0:00:55.800 --> 0:00:58.680
<v Speaker 1>second yield one point nine two percent. Ni'm ex screwed

0:00:58.720 --> 0:01:01.160
<v Speaker 1>oil up one percent to our sixty nine cents to

0:01:01.240 --> 0:01:04.200
<v Speaker 1>thirty a fifty four a barrel. COM's gold is down

0:01:04.240 --> 0:01:06.800
<v Speaker 1>three tenths per center, four dollars thirty cents to twelve

0:01:06.840 --> 0:01:10.360
<v Speaker 1>sixty eight thirty announced the euro a dollar eleven twenty three,

0:01:10.400 --> 0:01:13.720
<v Speaker 1>the yen one thirteen point six one, and Deutsche Bank,

0:01:13.760 --> 0:01:16.520
<v Speaker 1>which runs Europe's biggest investment bank, saying it expects the

0:01:16.560 --> 0:01:20.360
<v Speaker 1>industry's revenue to decline this year as clients consider pulling

0:01:20.360 --> 0:01:23.759
<v Speaker 1>back from trading some fixed income securities and refrain from

0:01:23.760 --> 0:01:28.000
<v Speaker 1>doing deals. That's a Bloomberg Business flash, Tom and Mike Karen,

0:01:28.240 --> 0:01:30.880
<v Speaker 1>thanks so much. Friday Morning Futures up twenty earlier, now

0:01:31.120 --> 0:01:36.480
<v Speaker 1>seventeen as well. It is on Wall Street. The following

0:01:36.600 --> 0:01:40.640
<v Speaker 1>is from Bloomberg View. Opinions and commentary from Bloomberg columnists.

0:01:40.760 --> 0:01:44.080
<v Speaker 1>I'm Repneuru, a columnist for Bloomberg View. When a lot

0:01:44.120 --> 0:01:48.080
<v Speaker 1>of commentators see in Donald Trump's political ascent is reinforcement

0:01:48.120 --> 0:01:51.360
<v Speaker 1>for their own long held views, and they find that reinforcement,

0:01:51.400 --> 0:01:54.920
<v Speaker 1>regardless of the evidence, take the argument that Republicans created

0:01:54.920 --> 0:01:58.120
<v Speaker 1>the conditions for Trump's success by teaching their followers to

0:01:58.200 --> 0:02:01.800
<v Speaker 1>value obstruction and hate President Obama. It's a strange theory,

0:02:01.920 --> 0:02:04.640
<v Speaker 1>since Trump is the Republican candidate who has given Obama

0:02:04.720 --> 0:02:07.600
<v Speaker 1>the most praise and talks the most about making deals,

0:02:07.840 --> 0:02:11.320
<v Speaker 1>and he has lagged among voters who call themselves very conservative,

0:02:11.400 --> 0:02:14.400
<v Speaker 1>the people whom one would expect to be most anti Obama.

0:02:14.480 --> 0:02:17.959
<v Speaker 1>In truth, several streams feed Trump's river opposition to the

0:02:18.000 --> 0:02:22.480
<v Speaker 1>Republican establishment. Economic anxiety and concern about illegal immigration are

0:02:22.520 --> 0:02:26.200
<v Speaker 1>all playing a role, but so is admiration for successful businessman,

0:02:26.280 --> 0:02:28.799
<v Speaker 1>and oversimplified view of Trump's coalition can lead us to

0:02:28.840 --> 0:02:31.919
<v Speaker 1>mistake and conclusions. We may take an unfair and alarming

0:02:32.000 --> 0:02:34.359
<v Speaker 1>view of millions of our fellow citizens, and we may

0:02:34.400 --> 0:02:36.880
<v Speaker 1>wrongly assume that nothing can be done to persuade his

0:02:36.960 --> 0:02:40.720
<v Speaker 1>supporters to reconsider their votes. I'm entrepreneur. For more view,

0:02:40.800 --> 0:02:43.560
<v Speaker 1>please go to Bloomberg dot com or view go on

0:02:43.600 --> 0:02:48.040
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg terminal. This has been Bloomberg View and Bloomerview.

0:02:48.080 --> 0:02:51.320
<v Speaker 1>Commentaries can be here in hourly weekdays on Bloomberg Radio.

0:02:51.440 --> 0:02:56.160
<v Speaker 1>Michael Well, we have perhaps seen the last of the

0:02:56.160 --> 0:02:59.800
<v Speaker 1>Republican debates for the time being, depending on how turnout

0:02:59.919 --> 0:03:04.400
<v Speaker 1>is UH and the vote goes next Tuesday. But before

0:03:04.440 --> 0:03:06.800
<v Speaker 1>they ended Brett Mayer spent quite a bit of time

0:03:06.840 --> 0:03:09.480
<v Speaker 1>on stage with the candidates as host of many of

0:03:09.480 --> 0:03:12.840
<v Speaker 1>the debates for Fox News and his Fox News Special Report,

0:03:12.880 --> 0:03:15.480
<v Speaker 1>one of the most watched news programs out there, and

0:03:15.520 --> 0:03:17.400
<v Speaker 1>you can listen, of course to Fox News Sunday twelve

0:03:17.440 --> 0:03:22.200
<v Speaker 1>pm and four pm every Sunday here on Bloomberg Radio. Brett.

0:03:22.760 --> 0:03:28.679
<v Speaker 1>We saw last night Donald Trump beginning to suggest that

0:03:28.760 --> 0:03:31.120
<v Speaker 1>he might try to move away from some of his

0:03:31.240 --> 0:03:36.240
<v Speaker 1>most extreme positions. UM in the in the in the

0:03:36.280 --> 0:03:40.040
<v Speaker 1>manner that candidates do once they feel they're the party's nominee.

0:03:40.080 --> 0:03:43.760
<v Speaker 1>But others have raised the question, and this came up

0:03:43.760 --> 0:03:47.480
<v Speaker 1>by noaht your debate, whether Donald Trump can or if

0:03:47.480 --> 0:03:51.200
<v Speaker 1>he changes his positions, he loses the support of all

0:03:51.240 --> 0:03:53.080
<v Speaker 1>the people who were so far out there in their

0:03:53.120 --> 0:03:57.200
<v Speaker 1>anger right tell him like a morning I think the

0:03:57.320 --> 0:04:00.560
<v Speaker 1>unique thing about Donald Trump is that he has used

0:04:00.640 --> 0:04:07.560
<v Speaker 1>flexibility on issues as a benefit. UH in a primary

0:04:07.560 --> 0:04:11.600
<v Speaker 1>where at least going in sticking to your guns, UH,

0:04:11.840 --> 0:04:15.560
<v Speaker 1>fighting for principle was the thing that a lot of

0:04:15.560 --> 0:04:18.040
<v Speaker 1>people thought was going to drive the day and hence

0:04:18.200 --> 0:04:22.479
<v Speaker 1>ted Cruz's nomination. UH could have been a possibility right now,

0:04:22.520 --> 0:04:25.599
<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump is in position, uh and really the only

0:04:25.640 --> 0:04:28.479
<v Speaker 1>one in position to get to the majority of delegates

0:04:28.520 --> 0:04:35.479
<v Speaker 1>without a contested convention. Well he is. Um. He's been

0:04:35.680 --> 0:04:39.760
<v Speaker 1>called the end of the Republican Party. Uh. You're very

0:04:39.800 --> 0:04:44.000
<v Speaker 1>close to people in the party. What what do you think, Well,

0:04:44.040 --> 0:04:47.760
<v Speaker 1>they're they're really um pulling their hair out. They don't

0:04:47.800 --> 0:04:51.320
<v Speaker 1>know exactly what to do. Um. There are some who

0:04:51.360 --> 0:04:54.839
<v Speaker 1>think when Donald Trump is the nominee and there will

0:04:54.880 --> 0:04:58.920
<v Speaker 1>be a massive loss to Hillary Clinton and the party

0:04:58.920 --> 0:05:02.760
<v Speaker 1>will restruct itself. There are others who think that he

0:05:02.960 --> 0:05:06.600
<v Speaker 1>is a candidate who is unique unto himself, and he

0:05:06.640 --> 0:05:10.760
<v Speaker 1>will compete in states that other Republicans would not and

0:05:11.279 --> 0:05:15.880
<v Speaker 1>think that he has a shot against Hillary Clinton. UM.

0:05:15.920 --> 0:05:19.400
<v Speaker 1>I think those are the optimistic of the budge within this.

0:05:19.560 --> 0:05:22.560
<v Speaker 1>In Vox yesterday, I'm searching for the bar chart right now,

0:05:22.600 --> 0:05:25.440
<v Speaker 1>Bret Verre. But Vox put out a terrific chart going

0:05:25.480 --> 0:05:28.600
<v Speaker 1>back a good thirty years of the summation of negative

0:05:28.600 --> 0:05:32.280
<v Speaker 1>and positive tone on each of the major candidates. And

0:05:32.320 --> 0:05:36.360
<v Speaker 1>it's really everybody else And there's nuances Romney Clinton back

0:05:36.440 --> 0:05:40.920
<v Speaker 1>to Bob Dole, etcetera. And then there's uniquely the negative

0:05:41.000 --> 0:05:46.719
<v Speaker 1>perception of Mr Trump. How does he shift that and win?

0:05:47.760 --> 0:05:50.039
<v Speaker 1>It's got to happen soon. I think last night was

0:05:50.080 --> 0:05:52.880
<v Speaker 1>part of it. Uh, Tom, I think you know this

0:05:53.800 --> 0:05:58.039
<v Speaker 1>kind of quiet uh, not jumping down people's throats, not

0:05:58.200 --> 0:06:02.400
<v Speaker 1>counterpunching right away. Um. A tone and tenor of that

0:06:02.440 --> 0:06:06.280
<v Speaker 1>debate was an example of him shifting. Um. But you're right,

0:06:06.440 --> 0:06:10.400
<v Speaker 1>his negatives are up at above folks, there are a

0:06:10.480 --> 0:06:14.400
<v Speaker 1>jump condition over everybody else we've grown up with. Now.

0:06:14.440 --> 0:06:16.880
<v Speaker 1>I will say that Hillary Clinton's negatives are are pretty

0:06:16.920 --> 0:06:21.159
<v Speaker 1>high to um. But much like Mitt Romney went into

0:06:21.200 --> 0:06:25.200
<v Speaker 1>that election, um with Romney Care unable to fight the

0:06:25.200 --> 0:06:29.599
<v Speaker 1>battle against Obamacare really effectively. There are some who are

0:06:29.600 --> 0:06:33.240
<v Speaker 1>concerned that because of honest and trustworthy numbers, Donald Trump

0:06:33.320 --> 0:06:36.040
<v Speaker 1>essentially is is neutered in the same way. And now

0:06:36.040 --> 0:06:39.039
<v Speaker 1>folks would go to Bloomberg Surveillance News breaking how Speaker

0:06:39.040 --> 0:06:42.080
<v Speaker 1>Paul Ryan and his council has sent his cease into

0:06:42.200 --> 0:06:45.960
<v Speaker 1>this letter to Brett Bear or the Draft Ryan group

0:06:45.960 --> 0:06:50.719
<v Speaker 1>because Brett Bear needs more ratings. Come on, are you

0:06:50.839 --> 0:06:54.719
<v Speaker 1>kidding me? Now? They're gonna get Speaker Ryan into this? Yeah, well,

0:06:54.560 --> 0:06:57.960
<v Speaker 1>I listen. They there are these groups that are imagining

0:06:58.080 --> 0:07:01.400
<v Speaker 1>this person on a white horse coming into the convention

0:07:01.440 --> 0:07:04.840
<v Speaker 1>in Cleveland and saving the day. Uh, it's just not

0:07:04.880 --> 0:07:07.320
<v Speaker 1>going to happen, Right, you can get the Florida vote

0:07:07.320 --> 0:07:13.920
<v Speaker 1>if you're running. You never know. I gotta I gotta

0:07:14.200 --> 0:07:17.200
<v Speaker 1>quickly ask you about the other side of the political coin.

0:07:17.280 --> 0:07:20.680
<v Speaker 1>On the Democratic side, Um, Bernie Sanders making a race

0:07:20.720 --> 0:07:23.080
<v Speaker 1>of it. But Hillary Clinton that you know, the delicate

0:07:23.120 --> 0:07:26.080
<v Speaker 1>math is is pretty overwhelming. Somebody asked me last night

0:07:26.120 --> 0:07:28.880
<v Speaker 1>after watching the Democratic debate and then watching the Republican

0:07:28.920 --> 0:07:32.520
<v Speaker 1>debate and watching Donald Trump debate. Um, he has no

0:07:32.600 --> 0:07:35.320
<v Speaker 1>policies and he basically just says, we need a good deal,

0:07:36.000 --> 0:07:40.480
<v Speaker 1>uh to everything. Uh how will Hillary Clinton do in

0:07:40.560 --> 0:07:43.880
<v Speaker 1>a debate against Donald Trump? He dominates the other people

0:07:43.960 --> 0:07:46.120
<v Speaker 1>who are on the stage on the Republican side. Will

0:07:46.160 --> 0:07:49.600
<v Speaker 1>it be different with her? Yeah, I mean that's really fascinating.

0:07:49.600 --> 0:07:52.280
<v Speaker 1>I mean she is a policy want and he's very

0:07:52.280 --> 0:07:57.320
<v Speaker 1>comfortable into the details. He is not comfortable there, but

0:07:57.480 --> 0:08:01.560
<v Speaker 1>he is comfortable. Uh. You know things at feet that

0:08:01.600 --> 0:08:04.120
<v Speaker 1>people say, Okay, let's give him a shot. I think

0:08:04.160 --> 0:08:07.360
<v Speaker 1>he's riding a wave of anger against Washington that says,

0:08:07.800 --> 0:08:10.840
<v Speaker 1>forget it, kicked the table over let's start. Somebody's gonna

0:08:10.840 --> 0:08:14.680
<v Speaker 1>shake it up. She is clearly establishment, so that that

0:08:14.680 --> 0:08:17.720
<v Speaker 1>will be quite a battle. Brett Baer, It's gonna be

0:08:17.880 --> 0:08:21.240
<v Speaker 1>a fascinating battle to follow with you here on Bloomberg Radio,

0:08:21.240 --> 0:08:23.240
<v Speaker 1>and you can listen to course to Fox News Sunday.

0:08:25.160 --> 0:08:28.480
<v Speaker 1>The left and the right simply say that he in

0:08:29.320 --> 0:08:31.840
<v Speaker 1>some slash all of his cohorts have done a great

0:08:31.920 --> 0:08:35.560
<v Speaker 1>job at Fox. Yeah, fullest closure special report, Um Scott

0:08:35.559 --> 0:08:39.680
<v Speaker 1>Brown is still with us From Raymond, James, uh and Scott.

0:08:39.880 --> 0:08:42.000
<v Speaker 1>This sort of leads into a question I wanted to

0:08:42.440 --> 0:08:45.040
<v Speaker 1>I'll put to you as the economic representative on the

0:08:45.080 --> 0:08:49.479
<v Speaker 1>program here now. Walster Journal has a very interesting survey

0:08:49.480 --> 0:08:55.880
<v Speaker 1>out today UH suggesting that three more than three quarters

0:08:55.920 --> 0:09:00.160
<v Speaker 1>of the forecasters in their latest survey they survey eight

0:09:00.640 --> 0:09:03.720
<v Speaker 1>economists around the country and all kinds of jobs, say

0:09:03.760 --> 0:09:08.000
<v Speaker 1>the presidential election has introduced more uncertainty than is typical,

0:09:08.760 --> 0:09:13.800
<v Speaker 1>and about two thirds of them say that if no.

0:09:14.000 --> 0:09:17.480
<v Speaker 1>Four fifths of the economists say that if you were

0:09:17.480 --> 0:09:20.280
<v Speaker 1>elected Mr Sanders or Mr Trump, they would have to

0:09:20.360 --> 0:09:24.000
<v Speaker 1>lower their economic forecasts, that that would be an economic

0:09:24.120 --> 0:09:28.040
<v Speaker 1>negative for the country. Yeah, it's hard to say for sure.

0:09:28.120 --> 0:09:31.200
<v Speaker 1>Particularly you know, if you look at Trump's proposals, because

0:09:31.200 --> 0:09:34.319
<v Speaker 1>there's really not a lot there there there are no details.

0:09:35.160 --> 0:09:38.240
<v Speaker 1>But you know when he talks about tearing up trade deals,

0:09:38.600 --> 0:09:41.200
<v Speaker 1>I mean that is a huge deal. I mean, these

0:09:41.240 --> 0:09:43.640
<v Speaker 1>things are designed so that you're not able to back

0:09:43.640 --> 0:09:46.240
<v Speaker 1>away from them. Tearing them up means that you're going

0:09:46.280 --> 0:09:49.520
<v Speaker 1>to set off this chain reaction, which is not going

0:09:49.559 --> 0:09:52.520
<v Speaker 1>to be good for the global economy. Um. Now what

0:09:52.640 --> 0:09:55.080
<v Speaker 1>push comes to the shob I think you know, if

0:09:55.080 --> 0:09:57.439
<v Speaker 1>Trump wins the nomination, you're going to get the established

0:09:57.679 --> 0:09:59.960
<v Speaker 1>mental Republicans coming in and trying to kiss and make

0:10:00.080 --> 0:10:02.720
<v Speaker 1>cup and he you know, the new president will have

0:10:02.800 --> 0:10:05.760
<v Speaker 1>to deal with Congress and the president you know, is

0:10:05.880 --> 0:10:09.280
<v Speaker 1>never gonna get everything that he wants in his administration.

0:10:09.320 --> 0:10:11.760
<v Speaker 1>I mean you look at the Obama administration and you know,

0:10:11.880 --> 0:10:15.520
<v Speaker 1>you've you've got the stalemate presumably with the Republican in

0:10:15.559 --> 0:10:19.040
<v Speaker 1>the White House, Republican in both chambers of Congress. Uh,

0:10:19.360 --> 0:10:22.839
<v Speaker 1>then some things can get done. You know, you look

0:10:22.840 --> 0:10:25.200
<v Speaker 1>at the Bush administration and we had you know, two

0:10:25.280 --> 0:10:28.680
<v Speaker 1>unfunded wars to you know, a prescription drug plan that

0:10:28.760 --> 0:10:32.120
<v Speaker 1>wasn't paid for. UM, So you need you know, you

0:10:32.160 --> 0:10:34.200
<v Speaker 1>need to be careful. I mean, the stalemate, you know

0:10:34.559 --> 0:10:37.280
<v Speaker 1>kind of work. And he remembered during the Clinton administration,

0:10:37.679 --> 0:10:39.839
<v Speaker 1>you know, the Republicans didn't get their big tax cuts,

0:10:39.840 --> 0:10:41.959
<v Speaker 1>the Democrats didn't get their big spending programs, and you

0:10:42.040 --> 0:10:43.960
<v Speaker 1>ended up with a budget surplus at the end of it.

0:10:44.600 --> 0:10:46.880
<v Speaker 1>But at this point, I think things have to come together,

0:10:46.920 --> 0:10:52.040
<v Speaker 1>but you're not really seeing much working together on capitalism. Scott,

0:10:52.280 --> 0:10:55.320
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much. Scott Brown, Raymond James uh with

0:10:55.520 --> 0:10:57.120
<v Speaker 1>us this morning. We'll have you on for a longer

0:10:57.360 --> 0:11:01.320
<v Speaker 1>period here in the near future. Very very interesting on

0:11:01.960 --> 0:11:04.880
<v Speaker 1>the ramifications on the U. S. Economy of where we are,

0:11:05.080 --> 0:11:09.319
<v Speaker 1>lower GDP growth and a bit, just a bit of inflation.

0:11:09.480 --> 0:11:12.280
<v Speaker 1>Another hour this Friday of Bloomberg Surveillance