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Speaker 1: doing deals. That's a Bloomberg Business flash, Tom and Mike Karen,
Speaker 1: thanks so much. Friday Morning Futures up twenty earlier, now
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Speaker 1: is from Bloomberg View. Opinions and commentary from Bloomberg columnists.
Speaker 1: I'm Repneuru, a columnist for Bloomberg View. When a lot
Speaker 1: of commentators see in Donald Trump's political ascent is reinforcement
Speaker 1: for their own long held views, and they find that reinforcement,
Speaker 1: regardless of the evidence, take the argument that Republicans created
Speaker 1: the conditions for Trump's success by teaching their followers to
Speaker 1: value obstruction and hate President Obama. It's a strange theory,
Speaker 1: since Trump is the Republican candidate who has given Obama
Speaker 1: the most praise and talks the most about making deals,
Speaker 1: and he has lagged among voters who call themselves very conservative,
Speaker 1: the people whom one would expect to be most anti Obama.
Speaker 1: In truth, several streams feed Trump's river opposition to the
Speaker 1: Republican establishment. Economic anxiety and concern about illegal immigration are
Speaker 1: all playing a role, but so is admiration for successful businessman,
Speaker 1: and oversimplified view of Trump's coalition can lead us to
Speaker 1: mistake and conclusions. We may take an unfair and alarming
Speaker 1: view of millions of our fellow citizens, and we may
Speaker 1: wrongly assume that nothing can be done to persuade his
Speaker 1: supporters to reconsider their votes. I'm entrepreneur. For more view,
Speaker 1: please go to Bloomberg dot com or view go on
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg terminal. This has been Bloomberg View and Bloomerview.
Speaker 1: Commentaries can be here in hourly weekdays on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 1: Michael Well, we have perhaps seen the last of the
Speaker 1: Republican debates for the time being, depending on how turnout
Speaker 1: is UH and the vote goes next Tuesday. But before
Speaker 1: they ended Brett Mayer spent quite a bit of time
Speaker 1: on stage with the candidates as host of many of
Speaker 1: the debates for Fox News and his Fox News Special Report,
Speaker 1: one of the most watched news programs out there, and
Speaker 1: you can listen, of course to Fox News Sunday twelve
Speaker 1: pm and four pm every Sunday here on Bloomberg Radio. Brett.
Speaker 1: We saw last night Donald Trump beginning to suggest that
Speaker 1: he might try to move away from some of his
Speaker 1: most extreme positions. UM in the in the in the
Speaker 1: manner that candidates do once they feel they're the party's nominee.
Speaker 1: But others have raised the question, and this came up
Speaker 1: by noaht your debate, whether Donald Trump can or if
Speaker 1: he changes his positions, he loses the support of all
Speaker 1: the people who were so far out there in their
Speaker 1: anger right tell him like a morning I think the
Speaker 1: unique thing about Donald Trump is that he has used
Speaker 1: flexibility on issues as a benefit. UH in a primary
Speaker 1: where at least going in sticking to your guns, UH,
Speaker 1: fighting for principle was the thing that a lot of
Speaker 1: people thought was going to drive the day and hence
Speaker 1: ted Cruz's nomination. UH could have been a possibility right now,
Speaker 1: Donald Trump is in position, uh and really the only
Speaker 1: one in position to get to the majority of delegates
Speaker 1: without a contested convention. Well he is. Um. He's been
Speaker 1: called the end of the Republican Party. Uh. You're very
Speaker 1: close to people in the party. What what do you think, Well,
Speaker 1: they're they're really um pulling their hair out. They don't
Speaker 1: know exactly what to do. Um. There are some who
Speaker 1: think when Donald Trump is the nominee and there will
Speaker 1: be a massive loss to Hillary Clinton and the party
Speaker 1: will restruct itself. There are others who think that he
Speaker 1: is a candidate who is unique unto himself, and he
Speaker 1: will compete in states that other Republicans would not and
Speaker 1: think that he has a shot against Hillary Clinton. UM.
Speaker 1: I think those are the optimistic of the budge within this.
Speaker 1: In Vox yesterday, I'm searching for the bar chart right now,
Speaker 1: Bret Verre. But Vox put out a terrific chart going
Speaker 1: back a good thirty years of the summation of negative
Speaker 1: and positive tone on each of the major candidates. And
Speaker 1: it's really everybody else And there's nuances Romney Clinton back
Speaker 1: to Bob Dole, etcetera. And then there's uniquely the negative
Speaker 1: perception of Mr Trump. How does he shift that and win?
Speaker 1: It's got to happen soon. I think last night was
Speaker 1: part of it. Uh, Tom, I think you know this
Speaker 1: kind of quiet uh, not jumping down people's throats, not
Speaker 1: counterpunching right away. Um. A tone and tenor of that
Speaker 1: debate was an example of him shifting. Um. But you're right,
Speaker 1: his negatives are up at above folks, there are a
Speaker 1: jump condition over everybody else we've grown up with. Now.
Speaker 1: I will say that Hillary Clinton's negatives are are pretty
Speaker 1: high to um. But much like Mitt Romney went into
Speaker 1: that election, um with Romney Care unable to fight the
Speaker 1: battle against Obamacare really effectively. There are some who are
Speaker 1: concerned that because of honest and trustworthy numbers, Donald Trump
Speaker 1: essentially is is neutered in the same way. And now
Speaker 1: folks would go to Bloomberg Surveillance News breaking how Speaker
Speaker 1: Paul Ryan and his council has sent his cease into
Speaker 1: this letter to Brett Bear or the Draft Ryan group
Speaker 1: because Brett Bear needs more ratings. Come on, are you
Speaker 1: kidding me? Now? They're gonna get Speaker Ryan into this? Yeah, well,
Speaker 1: I listen. They there are these groups that are imagining
Speaker 1: this person on a white horse coming into the convention
Speaker 1: in Cleveland and saving the day. Uh, it's just not
Speaker 1: going to happen, Right, you can get the Florida vote
Speaker 1: if you're running. You never know. I gotta I gotta
Speaker 1: quickly ask you about the other side of the political coin.
Speaker 1: On the Democratic side, Um, Bernie Sanders making a race
Speaker 1: of it. But Hillary Clinton that you know, the delicate
Speaker 1: math is is pretty overwhelming. Somebody asked me last night
Speaker 1: after watching the Democratic debate and then watching the Republican
Speaker 1: debate and watching Donald Trump debate. Um, he has no
Speaker 1: policies and he basically just says, we need a good deal,
Speaker 1: uh to everything. Uh how will Hillary Clinton do in
Speaker 1: a debate against Donald Trump? He dominates the other people
Speaker 1: who are on the stage on the Republican side. Will
Speaker 1: it be different with her? Yeah, I mean that's really fascinating.
Speaker 1: I mean she is a policy want and he's very
Speaker 1: comfortable into the details. He is not comfortable there, but
Speaker 1: he is comfortable. Uh. You know things at feet that
Speaker 1: people say, Okay, let's give him a shot. I think
Speaker 1: he's riding a wave of anger against Washington that says,
Speaker 1: forget it, kicked the table over let's start. Somebody's gonna
Speaker 1: shake it up. She is clearly establishment, so that that
Speaker 1: will be quite a battle. Brett Baer, It's gonna be
Speaker 1: a fascinating battle to follow with you here on Bloomberg Radio,
Speaker 1: and you can listen to course to Fox News Sunday.
Speaker 1: The left and the right simply say that he in
Speaker 1: some slash all of his cohorts have done a great
Speaker 1: job at Fox. Yeah, fullest closure special report, Um Scott
Speaker 1: Brown is still with us From Raymond, James, uh and Scott.
Speaker 1: This sort of leads into a question I wanted to
Speaker 1: I'll put to you as the economic representative on the
Speaker 1: program here now. Walster Journal has a very interesting survey
Speaker 1: out today UH suggesting that three more than three quarters
Speaker 1: of the forecasters in their latest survey they survey eight
Speaker 1: economists around the country and all kinds of jobs, say
Speaker 1: the presidential election has introduced more uncertainty than is typical,
Speaker 1: and about two thirds of them say that if no.
Speaker 1: Four fifths of the economists say that if you were
Speaker 1: elected Mr Sanders or Mr Trump, they would have to
Speaker 1: lower their economic forecasts, that that would be an economic
Speaker 1: negative for the country. Yeah, it's hard to say for sure.
Speaker 1: Particularly you know, if you look at Trump's proposals, because
Speaker 1: there's really not a lot there there there are no details.
Speaker 1: But you know when he talks about tearing up trade deals,
Speaker 1: I mean that is a huge deal. I mean, these
Speaker 1: things are designed so that you're not able to back
Speaker 1: away from them. Tearing them up means that you're going
Speaker 1: to set off this chain reaction, which is not going
Speaker 1: to be good for the global economy. Um. Now what
Speaker 1: push comes to the shob I think you know, if
Speaker 1: Trump wins the nomination, you're going to get the established
Speaker 1: mental Republicans coming in and trying to kiss and make
Speaker 1: cup and he you know, the new president will have
Speaker 1: to deal with Congress and the president you know, is
Speaker 1: never gonna get everything that he wants in his administration.
Speaker 1: I mean you look at the Obama administration and you know,
Speaker 1: you've you've got the stalemate presumably with the Republican in
Speaker 1: the White House, Republican in both chambers of Congress. Uh,
Speaker 1: then some things can get done. You know, you look
Speaker 1: at the Bush administration and we had you know, two
Speaker 1: unfunded wars to you know, a prescription drug plan that
Speaker 1: wasn't paid for. UM, So you need you know, you
Speaker 1: need to be careful. I mean, the stalemate, you know
Speaker 1: kind of work. And he remembered during the Clinton administration,
Speaker 1: you know, the Republicans didn't get their big tax cuts,
Speaker 1: the Democrats didn't get their big spending programs, and you
Speaker 1: ended up with a budget surplus at the end of it.
Speaker 1: But at this point, I think things have to come together,
Speaker 1: but you're not really seeing much working together on capitalism. Scott,
Speaker 1: thank you so much. Scott Brown, Raymond James uh with
Speaker 1: us this morning. We'll have you on for a longer
Speaker 1: period here in the near future. Very very interesting on
Speaker 1: the ramifications on the U. S. Economy of where we are,
Speaker 1: lower GDP growth and a bit, just a bit of inflation.
Speaker 1: Another hour this Friday of Bloomberg Surveillance